Thursday, December 29, 2022

"Energy: The Big Picture"

"Energy: The Big Picture"
by John Wilder

"The most fundamental economic and political choice of our lives is energy. I phrased that intentionally – the impacts of the energy we use as a society are economic. Energy has been political since the 1930s, at the very least.

The idea of energy might be economic and political, but the reality is pure physics. There is no law that Congress can pass that can create more energy – only allow that which exists to be used. And there is no amount of money that can be printed to that can make energy appear where none exists.

Some Leftists say truth is subjective, but let them try to pretend that their house at -40°F is actually 70°F. I guess that you could say that they’re trans-comfortable? No. They’re frozen. Reality is like that. And energy is like that, too. Unlike monetary policy or laws, energy doesn’t care what people want. The story of energy, though, is the story of human culture.

Energy has been a part of human life since the first waggling finger (thank you, Rudyard, original poem below) burned itself on a fire. Meat tastes good, but tastes better once it has been cooked. It also heated the caves and tents that early man lived in. It was the original killer app – I can guarantee that at some point, a fire in a cabin or tent or cave saved someone who was your direct ancestor.

In the form of crude wood fires, energy did a few things for people, helping to tan skins, cure meats, harden wood, and eventually fuel fires that made the first man-made metals and ceramics. The demand was low, but the impacts were huge. Food, clothing, weapons, and the basis of civilization. You can’t have beer unless you have a beer bottle, right?

Romans used it even more – they had central heating in their villas in Roman Britain, heated baths, and used it in lots of other ways I’m too lazy to look up. One hint: those Roman shields and swords didn’t make themselves. And the iron nails in Jerusalem, circa 32 A.D.? Yeah, those required energy as well.

Romans were amazing at using energy, but most of the energy they used was human; they didn’t exactly have outboard motors on their ships. It was wind or oars. The Romans used fire, but the real energy source for Empire was animal and human. That source of energy was totally renewable – people are born every day, and they eat food that is raised every year. There are huge implications to this: slave labor was the original renewable energy. Oops! That’s not politically correct, though the World Economic Forum® did take notes.

After the fall of the Roman Empire, people continued to innovate. That’s what we do. Dams provided water power for mills. Mills could grind grain, or they could operate pumps to pull water out of mines. And wind? Windmills could use wind to mill. Duh. It’s in the name.

All of that was a necessary predecessor to the real powerhouse: steam. Sure, steam-powered toys had been created 2,000 years earlier, but steam power was needed because of the mines that were needed to get the metals to manufacture electric guitars and iPads® back in the 1600s. Or whatever they did with them. Maybe banjos?

The Industrial Revolution came almost entirely based on the use of energy. The developments in the 1800s changed everything. Transport? Trains. Communications? Telegraphs. Cool products? Factories. Navy? Fast steamships. This is a wickedly small set of examples – the availability of energy changed everything. But at this point, the energy mix changed. Prior, it was mostly wood. Now it was the age of coal and steel.

The biggest change it created was the ability to have a metric butt-ton of additional people. Energy changed agriculture and changed food distribution. After the Haber-Bosch process allowed for the fixing of nitrogen for increased plant yields (which required another metric butt-ton of energy) but this changed the demand. Coal was still pretty nifty, but it was no longer enough. Now was the age of oil.

Cars were required to move products. Gas was required for fertilizer, and heating and chemical products. The result of all of this was amazing – an explosion of the numbers of people living on Earth like never before, even in places that could never support them.

Wars were fought over energy. Why did the Germans fight at Stalingrad? Because they were trying to secure oil. There was no hybrid-panzer. The Allies won because there were lakes of oil underneath Texas, mountains of iron ore in Minnesota, and marksmen from Georgia. The biggest contributor? The oil. Without it, the Shermans don’t sherm, the Mustangs won’t must, and the carrier fleet are amusing, odd-shaped coral reefs. Oil won World War II. If the Germans had the reserves of Texas under Bavaria, Stalin would have been a minor footnote in history after 1942.

Oil was pretty plentiful as geologists wend around the world hunting for it after 1945. It was found in the wastelands of the Arctic, the scorching deserts of Saudi Arabia, and on the coast of California. Really, anywhere where people don’t want to live in 2022.

The lakes of oil in Texas weren’t infinite. In 1973, Texas removed controls on production. The straws weren’t dry, but the abundance was done. The Arabs also decided that, perhaps, oil was now (for the second time since 1943) the most potent weapon in the world besides nuclear bombs and Leftism was unleashed. The oil embargo showed how much the world depended on oil to make Big Macs™ and G.I. Joes©. One oil shock (combined with Nixon’s taking the United States off the gold standard) was enough to send the economy into the stagflation of the 1970s.

Oil is why the Cold War ended. Star Wars was an important initiative, but the bigger cause of the failure of the Soviet Union was that Reagan convinced the Saudis to pump oil like it was free. The Soviet economy, dependent on oil revenue to keep their machine going? Done. Oil killed the two out of three of the great empires of the twentieth century.

That brings us to today. Almost all of the growth in oil production since 2008 was based on fracking. The previous pools of oil were still producing, but the oil companies had to go farther and farther afield, such as deep water miles deep in places like the Gulf of Mexico. Places where getting the oil was expensive – it’s not like we found another several billion barrels in the backyard behind the garden shed. Regular places where oil was were drying up. A game changer was needed. Something different.

Fracking was different. It was difficult, required new technologies, and grew by a factor of ten in only ten years, making the United States a net energy exporter for the first time since before John Kennedy did an afternoon drive in Texas.

Oil is an amazing fuel, and I bathe in sweet, sweet gasoline every night. But to meet the needs of the world, the struggle is difficult. Cheap energy takes huge investment, but that’s not all. It requires the energy source to be there. Our energy has been cheap since about 1920 or so. The idea that it will be cheap forever is magical thinking, unless oil is infinite (it is not). Our choice on energy isn’t economic, it’s based on physics.

And, with everything I’ve read, the physics of alternative energy solutions, especially the “renewable” ones that are touted based on political reasons, result in the energy cost doubling (at least) and that’s after the investment of trillions of dollars to build the necessary energy production facilities and infrastructure. This will likely be the subject of future posts.

I hate to break the Christmas spirit, but it is the single most important question facing humanity today. When the price of energy is low, freedom is high. When the price of energy is high? Oh, yeah. Slavery.

As promised, here’s Kipling, "Gods of the Copybook Headings": 

"As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market-Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall.
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.

We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn.
That water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision, and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas 
while we followed the March of Mankind.

We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither clud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market-Place;
But they always caught up with our progress, 
and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, 
or the lights had gone out in Rome.

With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch.
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch.
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings.
So we worshiped the Gods of the Market Who 
promised these beautiful things.

When the Cambrian measures were forming,
 They promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, 
that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed 
They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said:
 'Stick to the Devil you know.'

On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbor and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said:
 'The Wages of Sin is Death.'

In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selective Peter to pay for collective Paul.
But, though we had plenty of money,
 there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: 
'If you don't work you die.'

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, 
and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew,
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled 
and began to believe it was true,
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four -
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings
 limped up to explain it once more.

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man -
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began: - 
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;
And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!"

"The Important Thing..."

 

Wednesday, December 28, 2022

"The “Mega-Bubbles” Have Started To Burst, And That Could Mean Unprecedented Financial Chaos Is Ahead"

"The “Mega-Bubbles” Have Started To Burst, 
And That Could Mean Unprecedented Financial Chaos Is Ahead"
 by Michael Snyder

"The Federal Reserve giveth, and the Federal Reserve taketh away. In a desperate attempt to help the U.S. economy recover from the horrific economic crisis of 2008 and 2009, the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates all the way to the floor and kept them at or near the floor until 2022. During that same time period, the Fed also created trillions of dollars out of thin air and pumped it into the financial system. All of this new money had to go somewhere, and it created colossal financial bubbles that were unlike anything we had ever seen before. There were a few voices that were warning that all of this foolishness would end very badly, but those voices were mostly drowned out by those that were super happy that asset values were absolutely exploding. The Fed had essentially created the ultimate “get rich quick scheme”, and countless Americans were more than happy to take advantage of it.

But in 2022 inflation started to become exceedingly painful, and the Federal Reserve went into panic mode. The flow of free money stopped, and the Federal Reserve began to aggressively hike interest rates. Everyone knew that this sudden change of course by the Fed would crash the housing market, and that is precisely what is happening. In fact, even the Wall Street Journal is now admitting that we are facing “a housing slump as severe, by some metrics, as that of 2007-09”

"The Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases have brought on a housing slump as severe, by some metrics, as that of 2007-09, inflicting pain on prospective buyers, homeowners, builders and other industries linked to real estate."

For the Fed, this is a feature, not a bug: Slumping housing could help deliver the lower economic activity and inflation that the Fed wants in the coming year. Home sales have been falling month after month, and it is being projected that they could soon fall below the levels that we witnessed during the last housing crash…"Sales of existing homes fell in November for a record 10th straight month. Economists at Fannie Mae and Goldman Sachs forecast they will drop below 4 million in 2023, lower than during the 2006-11 housing bust."

On Wednesday, we got some more bad news. Pending home sales are one of the best leading indicators for where the housing market is going next, and at this point pending home sales have dropped to the lowest level ever recorded…"Contracts to buy U.S. previously owned homes fell far more than expected in November, diving for a sixth straight month in the latest indication of the hefty toll the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are taking on the housing market as the central bank seeks to curb inflation.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Wednesday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, fell 4% to 73.9 last month from October’s downwardly revised 77.0. November’s was the lowest reading — aside from the short-lived drop in the early months of the pandemic — since NAR launched the index in 2001."

With interest rates so high, very few people want to buy homes right now. So home prices are going to have to come down. A lot. In fact, George Gammon has demonstrated that we will need a crash in housing prices even larger than we witnessed during the last housing crash just to get back to the long-term trend line.
Do you think that our system will be able to handle a housing crash of that magnitude? Of course not.

Meanwhile, the absurd cryptocurrency bubble that was created by the Fed’s easy money policies has already imploded. I really like how Wolf Richter described what we have been witnessing over the past year in one of his most recent articles…"And then come the copycats since anyone can issue a crypto currency. Suddenly there were a dozen of them, and then there were 100 of them then a 1,000, and suddenly 10,000 cryptos, and now there are over 22,000 cryptos, and everyone and their dog is creating them, and trading them, and lending them, and using them as collateral, and all kinds of businesses sprang up around this scheme, crypto miners, crypto exchanges, crypto lending platforms, and some of them went public via IPO or via merger with a SPAC.

And the market capitalization of these cryptos reached $3 trillion, trillion with a T, about a year ago, and then when the Fed started raising its interest rates and started doing QT, the whole thing just blows up. Companies go like POOF, and the money is gone, and whatever is left is stuck in bankruptcy courts globally possibly for years. Cryptos themselves have imploded. Many have gone to essentially zero and have been abandoned for dead. The granddaddy, bitcoin, has plunged by something like 73% from the peak. The whole crypto market is also down about 73%."

More than two trillion dollars of “crypto wealth” has already been wiped out. Less than a trillion is left. But the party was fun while it lasted, right?

Sadly, all of the bubbles are starting to burst, and 2023 is going to be a really painful year. Normally, major economic downturns take just about everyone by surprise. But this time around, almost everyone can feel that really bad times are coming. The following is what Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics recently had to say about this…“Usually recessions sneak up on us. CEOs never talk about recessions,” said Zandi. “Now it seems CEOs are falling over themselves to say we’re falling into a recession. … Every person on TV says recession. Every economist says recession. I’ve never seen anything like it.”

He is right. We’ve never seen anything like this before, and that is because the coming crisis is going to be really bad. Many among the elite can sense that what is approaching will be truly nightmarish, and so they have been feverishly preparing for the worst…"Though a recent poll found that four-in-ten Americans believe we are ‘living in the end of times,’ it’s not just the everyman who is fearing the apocalypse these days – billionaires have been prepping themselves for the apocalypse with elaborate doomsday bunkers for years.

As the world still reels from the scars of the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change-driven storms lash American coastlines and flood inland cities, and Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to talk of using nuclear weapons to devastate Ukraine, a Pew Research Center survey of more than US 10,000 adults found that 39 percent called these the ‘end times.’

The world’s wealthiest are among those cautious of a coming calamity, including billionaire PayPal founder Peter Thiel and Silicon Valley entrepreneur Sam Altman, who have famously laid down routes in remote New Zealand with the express purpose of riding out the end of days.

Yes, things will soon get really crazy as global events spiral completely out of control. But that doesn’t mean that you should curl up into a fetal position and throw a pity party for yourself. When I was growing up, I was told that when the going gets tough, the tough get going. So get prepared for some really rough years ahead. The clock is ticking, and just about everything that can be shaken will be shaken in 2023 and beyond."

"Markets Slammed Today; Blackrock To Rebuild Ukraine"

Jeremiah Babe, 12/28/22:
"Markets Slammed Today; Blackrock To Rebuild Ukraine"
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Free Download: "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds"

"Extraordinary Popular Delusions
 and the Madness of Crowds"

"One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We're no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we've been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back." - Carl Sagan

"Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" is an early study of crowd psychology by Scottish journalist Charles Mackay, first published in 1841. The book chronicles its subjects in three parts: "National Delusions", "Peculiar Follies", and "Philosophical Delusions". MacKay was an accomplished teller of stories, though he wrote in a journalistic and somewhat sensational style.

The subjects of Mackay's debunking include alchemy, crusades, duels, economic bubbles, fortune-telling, haunted houses, the Drummer of Tedworth, the influence of politics and religion on the shapes of beards and hair, magnetizers (influence of imagination in curing disease), murder through poisoning, prophecies, popular admiration of great thieves, popular follies of great cities, and relics. Present-day writers on economics, such as Michael Lewis and Andrew Tobias, laud the three chapters on economic bubbles. Scientist and astronomer Carl Sagan mentioned the book in his own discussion about pseudoscience, popular delusions, and hoaxes.

In later editions, Mackay added a footnote referencing the Railway Mania of the 1840s as another "popular delusion" which was at least as important as the South Sea Bubble. Mathematician Andrew Odlyzko has pointed out, in a published lecture, that Mackay himself played a role in this economic bubble; as leader writer in the Glasgow Argus, Mackay wrote on 2 October 1845: "There is no reason whatever to fear a crash."

Freely download "Extraordinary Popular Delusions
 and the Madness of Crowds" by Charles Mackay, here:

"The Madness of Crowds"

"The Madness of Crowds"
By Brian Maher

"Man is at bottom a herd animal.His behavior is influenced heavily by social pressures that constantly bear down upon him. It takes a unique individual to resist them, and to follow his own way. Markets are mass phenomena. And the same pack instincts that compel men to follow a street mob or fight a war, compel him to follow the market herd. Below, we reflect upon the madness of crowds, and praise the exceptional man who is able to think for himself.

When a man enters a crowd he exits civilization. He goes in, his blood goes up… and his reason goes out. As Herr Nietzsche observed, madness is a rarity in individuals - but the rule in crowds. Or as argued Mr. Charles Mackay, author of the 1841 classic "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds": "Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."

“A Crowd Runs Not on Thought but on Hormones”: A man in a crowd ceases to be a man but a face. He ceases to be an independent unit but a cog in a lunatic machine. A man in a crowd does not think for himself. The crowd thinks for him. That is, the man ceases to think whatsoever. For a crowd runs not on thought but on hormones. The crowd’s lusts become the man’s lusts, its will becomes his will, its devils become his devils. It is these devils - in fact - that unite the crowd.

A Crowd Needs a Devil: These devils may appear in the form of policemen, of whites, of blacks, of Muslims, of Christians, of Chinamen, of Russians, of conservatives, of progressives, of capitalists, of anti-capitalists, of greenhouse gas-geysers, of meat-munchers. One crowd has its devil. A second crowd, another. A third, a devil of its own. Above all:

Above all: Any crowd’s hate for devils vastly exceeds its love for angels. Angels do not excite the blood. Angels do not bubble the hormones. Angels do not furl the fingers into fists. Devils do excite the blood, get the blood up. Devils do bubble the hormones. Devils do furl the fingers into fists.

A Crowd Is Not Necessarily a Street Mob: But by our comprehensive standards, a crowd is not merely a mass on a street. A nation is a sort of crowd - a supercrowd. And no greater menace exists than a supercrowd after a devil. It is given to the same madnesses as the street crowd… only its madnesses are amplified by the tens, by the hundreds, by the thousands and the millions. They often leave “rivers of blood” and a “harvest of groans and tears” trailing behind them.

From the aforesaid "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds": "In reading the history of nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their whims and their peculiarities; their seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do. We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion and run after it till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first. We see one nation suddenly seized, from its highest to its lowest members, with a fierce desire of military glory; another as suddenly becoming crazed upon a religious scruple, and neither of them recovering its senses until it has shed rivers of blood and sowed a harvest of groans and tears, to be reaped by its posterity."

The Madness of Market Crowds: A market too is a crowd, a mob… and equally susceptible to lunacy. Do you doubt it? Mr. Mackay consecrates page upon page to the Tulip delirium (1636–37), the Mississippi Bubble (1718–20) and the related South Sea Bubble (1720). And let us say it now: It is a pity the fellow no longer writes.

The stock market bubble of 1929, the technology bubble of 2000 and the housing bubble of 2008 added entire chapters to the literature of mass delusion. Additional chapters - no doubt - await writing. We hazard the 2020-2021 market deliriums will rank high among them.

Here is the common element that unites them all: The man in a crowd. Only the man under crowd influence heaves his reason into a ditch. Why do men do it?

Man Must Choose Between Freedom and Happiness: Mankind confronts a choice, argued George Orwell in 1984. He must choose between freedom and happiness. And the mass of men prefer happiness to freedom: The choice for mankind lay between freedom and happiness and that, for the great bulk of mankind, happiness was better.

The great bulk of men seek the peace and contentment of herd living - of life in a crowd. The man truly divorced from the social influence is a man truly exceptional. Freedom is too hot for most hands, as Mencken described it - or too cold for most spines, as Nietzsche described it. Either way… freedom runs to temperatures too extreme for most constitutions.

Here we do not judge. Nor do we evaluate or condemn. We merely describe, describe a phenomenon. The crowd offers safety. Numerical strength. Solidarity. Companionship. Reassurance.

“Freedom Includes the Freedom to Starve”: As we have written before: The free man must go upon his own hook. He must push along under his own steam, weave his own safety net, face cruel fate alone. Do not forget: Freedom includes the freedom to starve. We therefore have no heat against the man who chooses security over freedom, the full belly over the empty belly.

We enjoy happiness ourself. Safety. Security. And a belly stretched to capacity. Extremes of heat and cold, meantime, immiserate us. And - despite all evidence - we enjoy human companionship. We nonetheless confess a vast respect for the man who never wanders into a crowd, for the man who does not flock. For we prefer humanity in batches of one. The free man’s example is the eagle, the free and noble eagle.

“The Eagle Does Not Flock. You Find Him One by One”: We would emulate the solitary eagle over the flocking birds - over the birds that crowd. For the eagle does not flock. You find him one by one. That is, the eagle takes the individual view. In our experience, that view is often the higher view, the superior view. The free man is the eagle high aloft, wheeling and wheeling on motionless wings, on steady wings, on confident wings… On free wings.

He is free to starve, it is true. But he is also free to soar. And the man in a crowd? As the bird in a flock… he is free only to follow…"

"15 Items To Stock Up From Walmart Before They Disappear From Stores"

Full screen recommended.
"15 Items To Stock Up From Walmart 
Before They Disappear From Stores"
by Epic Economist

"The coldest season of the year has begun, and now is the time to stock up on winter supplies before they are gone from store shelves. Due to its massive supply chain and enormous product range, Walmart can offer everything you need to stay warm and cozy at home for incredibly competitive prices. That's why in today's video, we listed some essential products for you to buy now so you don't have to rush to the stores when the weather outside is grim, and before waves of panic buying depleate retailers' inventories. One single disaster or extreme weather event can push the demand of any given product through the roof while supplies remain flat, which can cause shortages or extended stockouts. From pantry staples to cozy clothing - that, by the way, are on sale right now - to winter car supplies, the following are key items that will make your life easier this season without breaking your budget.

As major food companies announce a new round of price increases, Walmart’s name-brand products have some of the most competitive prices out there. According to SupermarketGuru editor and food industry analyst, Phil Lempert, “on the brand-name products, you’ll typically find the cheapest prices at Walmart”. You can find essentials like peanut butter for $2.22 at the retailer’s stores while its competitors such as Acme and ShopRite regularly sell it for $2.99 and $3.19, respectively, according to New York City metro area prices analyzed by CNBC using Basket, a grocery price comparison app. On top of that, if another grocer is selling any given product at a cheaper price, you can use Walmart’s Savings Catcher tool within the store’s mobile app so you can get an eGift card to pay for the difference. The tool compares the prices you paid at Walmart with other local grocery retailers such as Aldi, Target, and Walgreens

You don't even need to leave your home to purchase these essentials. If you don't have a Walmart store nearby, you can just visit their website, and you'll find all of these items and many more that may be helpful to you and your family in the months ahead.Like so, you can also stock up on everything you need even when the weather outside doesn't allow you to leave your home. Stocking up on affordable products right now is going to save you a lot of money later on. Week after week, more food companies are revealing plans to hike their prices once again. That's an issue that will stay with us for 2023 and beyond. Although Walmart may not have the same fan base as Trader Joe's, or the devoted, paying members of Costco, it is still the best place to shop when you want to stretch your dollars as much as possible. “When it comes to the lowest prices almost nobody beats Walmart,” says Joanie Demer, co-founder of the blog Krazy Coupon Lady.

Given that Walmart is the largest retail chain on the entire planet, and it purchases products in larger volumes than anyone else in the industry, the company's giant network gives it leverage to negotiate the best deals with suppliers. “Walmart can demand the lowest price from vendors and manufacturers and get the lowest price from them because they have so many stores,” says John Karolefski, grocery store analyst and editor of Grocery Stories. At a time when the price of everything continues to go up, every opportunity to save on costs is welcome."
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"Back to the USSA"

"Back to the USSA"
Welcome to the sovietization of an America we once knew...
by Bill Bonner

Poitou, France - "We are overcome with gratitude. We might have been born any time. But we were born in 1948, when antibiotics saved our life. We grew up when living was cheap and easy… and what luck!...we were so poor we could only go in one direction – up. Nor were we burdened by any of today’s confusions. Would we be better off identifying as a girl? The thought never crossed our minds. Did we have a grudge against our parents… did society let us down… should we blame someone else if we were unhappy? We didn’t know it was an option.

We went to school when the Rolling Stones and the Doors were rolling out hit songs… and when it was still possible to ‘work your way through’ college. We started a business with almost zero financing…and were able to earn enough money to be able to live comfortably. And then, more good luck… along came the internet that allowed us to move overseas, expand our business and explore other places, people, and cultures in depth. And finally, here we are… wonder of wonders…in the 8th decade of our life.

Dumb and Dumber? And now, the feds and the educated elite are putting on such a great show… such a rollicking, frolicking display; every day is a laughfest! A great Carnival of Claptrap. A Jamboree of Jackassery. Just read the headlines:

"Why I Feel Guilty About Being A White Mother"
"How the Rosary Became an Extremist Symbol"
"At signing, Biden says IRA bill will fight climate change…"

What a great world. What great fun! Yes… it’s a great time to be alive. Only… except… but… It’s too bad the feds are ruining it. Wait. How could that be? The federal government has been around for a long time. So have the two parties. They haven’t wrecked the country yet. Have they gotten dumber? More incompetent? More corrupt? Yes, they have.

Hey, Big Spenders! In our early career, the federal government was an obvious menace to civil society, progress and prosperity. But it seemed to be more or less under control. Yes, there were plenty of people who wanted to expand federal power and use it to realize their fantasies of a better world. But there were “conservatives” too – who were usually, or eventually, able to slow them down.

Senator Robert A. Taft, for example, led opposition to the New Deal. Ronald Reagan had decent conservative instincts but was hornswoggled by his own allies. Ron Paul continues to be a very lonely voice for restraint. But the old conservatives have largely disappeared; they’ve been replaced by war mongers, dumbbells and big spenders.

“So what’s the problem?” asks the naïve observer. “You say the feds are leading us to Hell in a handcart. But as a percentage of GDP, they’re no bigger a nuisance today than they were under Nixon or Reagan.” In 2019 the Federal Budget/GDP was 20% – almost the same as it was when Taft died in 1953. Then came the Covid Panic. The feds, from Donald Trump to Bernie Sanders, pretended that the threat of the coronavirus was like the bombing of Pearl Harbor. Without conservatives to stop them, they went on a spending spree. Federal outlays rose to over 30% of GDP.

Back to the USSA: But that’s only part of the story. Federal regulations determine where and how resources are used too. And the effect is cumulative. George Washington University has a Regulatory Studies Center. It keeps track of “economically significant” regulations, which it defines as those having an impact of $100 billion or more.

When we were in our youthful prime during the Reagan years, the feds were promulgating about 20 of these regulations per year, with a total economic impact of at least $2 trillion. Today, Joe Biden’s team is on track to put forth 63 new regulations per year, with a total impact over $6 trillion. These regulatory edicts represent a huge, and largely unnoticed creep of federal power. If we average the intervening years at 40 per year, we can assume a total cost of $160 trillion, or more than 6 times today’s GDP, since 1980.

That is a measure of how much bossier and more wasteful the federal government has become. It also helps explain why growth rates and productivity have declined. For the first time in our lives, neither is positive. Both are going backwards.

In effect, the US economy has been Sovietized, shackled by central planning. As we see in the latest boondoggle – the Inflation Reduction Act – Washington hacks increasingly decide what kind of car you will drive… what kind of kitchen stove you will use… where and how you will live. And as in the Soviet experiment of 1917-1991, the results are grim. All we can do is laugh."

Musical Interlude: 2002, "Land of Forever"

Full screen recommended
2002, "Land of Forever"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"In the center of this serene stellar swirl is likely a harrowing black-hole beast. The surrounding swirl sweeps around billions of stars which are highlighted by the brightest and bluest. The breadth and beauty of the display give the swirl the designation of a grand design spiral galaxy. 
The central beast shows evidence that it is a supermassive black hole about 10 million times the mass of our Sun. This ferocious creature devours stars and gas and is surrounded by a spinning moat of hot plasma that emits blasts of X-rays. The central violent activity gives it the designation of a Seyfert galaxy. Together, this beauty and beast are cataloged as NGC 6814 and have been appearing together toward the constellation of the Eagle (Aquila) for roughly the past billion years."

Chet Raymo, “Half Sick Of Shadows”

“Half Sick Of Shadows”
by Chet Raymo

“Who is this woman? Her name is on the prow of her boat: The Lady of Shalott.  Yes, it’s Tennyson’s “Lady of Shalott,” from the poem of 1842, here illustrated by John William Waterhouse in 1888. By some unspecified curse this lovely maiden was confined to a tower.

“Willows whiten, aspens quiver,
Little breezes dusk and shiver
Through the wave that runs for ever
By the island in the river”

…near Camelot, where, forbidden to look out the window, she observed the world in a mirror and wove what she saw into a tapestry. So what is she doing in the boat, with her hand-stitched creation? One day, Sir Lancelot rode by her tower alone. She saw him in the mirror and – “half sick of shadows” – couldn’t resist turning to see him unreflected.

“His broad clear brow in sunlight glow’d;
On burnish’d hooves his war-horse trode;
From underneath his helmet flow’d
His coal-black curls as on he rode…”

The mirror cracked. She left her loom, descended from the tower, found a boat, inscribed her name on the prow, and…

“Lying, robed in snowy white
That loosely flew to left and right -
The leaves upon her falling light -
Thro’ the noises of the night”

…cast off to drift downstream to Camelot – and to Lancelot. But curses are not to be foiled.

“For ere she reach’d upon the tide
The first house by the water-side,
Singing in her song she died,
The Lady of Shalott.”

We are all of us in a way the Lady of Shalott, all of us who seek to create an image of the world, artists, poets, scientists. We perceive the world through the filter of our limited senses, our biologically evolved brains, our nurtured preconceptions. We weave our tapestries, knowing that our creations are a reflection removed from reality. Our “curse” is to be in love with the real, yet never able to embrace it except in the cold glass of conceptualization. Our legacy? To be found in a boat lodged among the reeds, our tapestry draped across the thwart, with Camelot yet somewhere further down the stream, glistening, beckoning, inescapably out of reach. But, ah, there’s that gorgeous tapestry.

There is another curse, self made, and that is to mistake the mirrorworld for the world outside the window, to fail to recognize the contingency of our conceptualizations, to forego an honest seeking for the falsely found, and – most ominously – to want to impose our own mirrorworld on others.”

"Sometime In Your Life..."

"Sometime in your life, hope that you might see one starved man, the look on his face when the bread finally arrives. Hope that you might have baked it or bought or even kneaded it yourself. For that look on his face, for your meeting his eyes across a piece of bread, you might be willing to lose a lot, or suffer a lot, or die a little, even."
- Daniel Berrigan

The Poet: Maya Angelou, "When You Know Better, Do Better"

Full screen recommended.
Maya Angelou,
 "When You Know Better, Do Better"

"Do You Want..."

"Do you want to live life, or do you want to escape life?"
- Macklemore

"It All Changes Next Year"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 12/28/22:
"It All Changes Next Year"
"This keeps getting worse. Southwest airlines has over
 2500 flights canceled. People are even committing crime in the snow."
Comments here:

The Daily "Near You?"

Brest, Brestskaya Voblasts', Belarus. Thanks for stopping by!

“Why Not Despair?”

“Why Not Despair?”
- Sam Smith

"To view our times as decadent and dangerous, to mistrust the government, to imagine that those in power as not concerned with our best interests is not paranoid but perceptive; to be depressed, angry or confused about such things is not delusional but a sign of consciousness. Yet our culture suggests otherwise. But if all this is true, then why not despair? The simple answer is this: despair is the suicide of imagination. Whatever reality presses upon us, there still remains the possibility of imagining something better, and in this dream remains the frontier of our humanity and its possibilities To despair is to voluntarily close a door that has not yet shut. The task is to bear knowledge without it destroying ourselves, to challenge the wrong without ending up on its casualty list. “You don’t have to change the world,” the writer Colman McCarthy has argued. “Just keep the world from changing you.”

Oddly, those who instinctively understand this best are often those who seem to have the least reason to do so – survivors of abuse, oppression, and isolation who somehow discover not so much how to beat the odds, but how to wriggle around them. They have, without formal instruction, learned two of the most fundamental lessons of psychiatry, philosophy, and religion:

You are not responsible for that into which you were born...
You are responsible for doing something about it.

These individuals move through life like a skilled mariner in a storm rather than as a victim at a sacrifice. Relatively unburdened by pointless and debilitating guilt about the past, uninterested in the endless regurgitation of the unalterable, they free themselves to concentrate upon the present and the future. They face the gale as a sturdy combatant rather than as cowering supplicant.”

"Ain't no man can avoid being born average,
 but there ain't no man got to be common."
- Satchel Paige

Gregory Mannarino, "Situation Critical! The Global Debt Market Is Flashing "Danger Danger Danger!"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 12/28/22:
"Situation Critical! The Global Debt Market Is 
Flashing "Danger Danger Danger!"
Comments here:

"The Most Daring Liars..."

“The men the American people admire most extravagantly
are the most daring liars; the men they detest most
violently are those who try to tell them the truth.”
- H.L. Mencken

"Strange Prices At Aldi! This Is Crazy! What's Coming!?"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, 12/28/22:
"Strange Prices At Aldi! This Is Crazy! What's Coming!?"
"In today's vlog we are at Aldi, and are noticing some strange price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
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Related:
Full screen recommended.
Travelling With Russell, 12/28/22:
"I Worked In A Real Russian Supermarket For A Day"
"What is it like to work in a Russian Supemarket? I am going to find out, as I spend the day at Chizhik Supermarket in Moscow, Russia. I am going to learn what its like to work there, what I need to do on a daily basis."
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"How It Really Is"

"Does Anyone Know..."

"All sins, of course, deserve to be treated with mercy: we all do what we can, and life is too hard and too cruel for us to condemn anyone for failing in this area. Does anyone know what he himself would do if faced with the worst and how much truth could he bear under such circumstances?" 
- Andre Comte-Sponville

Jim Kunstler, "What It’s Really About"

"What It’s Really About"
By Jim Kunstler

“It is unfortunate that conspiracy theorists and others are feeding the American public misinformation with the sole purpose of attempting to discredit the agency.” - FBI Press release in response to the Twitter files.

"What’s most appalling about the Twitter revelations of the Intel Community’s years-long strangle-hold on social media is not just the evil f**kery itself of the FBI, CIA, and others colluding to gaslight the US electorate, but the fact that there is no institution in the land that can intervene to adjudicate or discipline these rogue agencies. Nobody expects the FBI’s parent, the Department of Justice, to look into any of this.

Not so many years ago, the force counter-balancing criminal misconduct in the government was the news media, even if the reporters and editors claimed to be on the political Left. Or, shall we say, especially if they were on the Left, because the Left in those days fervently championed free speech. Reporters of that long-ago day (Seymour Hersh, John Sack, and Michael Herr) would be out digging up the true facts of a big event - say, the US Military’s deadly blunders and scams in Vietnam - and editors would plaster screaming headlines about it on the front page: GENERAL SAYS “WE HAD TO DESTROY THE VILLAGE TO SAVE IT!” When the venerable news-spieler Walter Cronkite of CBS began to hint that the war was a fiasco, public opinion across the country shifted decisively against it.

Of course, those crimes and sins were committed against people in distant lands. Now, the administrative weight of the US is rolling over its own citizens, and over the Constitution - and the news media is uniformly and enthusiastically in favor of suppressing the news about it. How that happened is one of several cosmic mysteries of our time, along with who exactly runs “Joe Biden,” and how did the many nations of Western Civ adopt in lock-step Covid-19 policies aimed at harming their own people?

No reporter even of the alt.news division tried to get inside the head of New York Times executive editor Dean Baquet during the years of RussiaGate. Did he believe all that crap his paper was putting out? Now, you realize, it’s established fact (in the federal court record) that the Steele Dossier and everything spun off of it was a flim-flam confected by Hillary Clinton’s campaign. But even at the time, say 2017 to 2019, independent journalists were reporting the truth about it - for example, the FBI’s long-running fraud in the FISA Court - while The New York Times ardently inveighed against any emerging fact-pattern that broke through its wall of propaganda. The Times was showered with awards for that, including the Pulitzer Prize for its completely fallacious RussiaGate coverage.

One easy answer is that The Times and many of its “legacy” cohorts — The WashPo, CBS, NBC, and ABC - have volunteered to be the public relations office of the Democratic Party, covering-up anything and everything the Party does against the public interest. And while that appears to be the case, it still doesn’t explain how these outfits became the enemies of truth itself, and by extension, enemies of reality.

The easy answer to that is the psychological derangement provoked by Donald Trump when he entered politics, and the absolute fugue state of deranged fury that blossomed among the “elite” when Mr. Trump had the temerity to actually win a national election - since he was perceived to be the avatar of all the sub-human boobs dwelling in the Great Darkness between New York and Los Angeles.

But that explanation has an odor of contrivance. Those benighted boobs were the very people who most deserved the Democratic Party’s sympathy, the folks who had toiled in the great factories, now shuttered and off-shored, who volunteered for America’s wars without complaint, who were suffering now in idleness and poverty. The party of Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman suddenly wanted to crush these “deplorable” people. Huh…?

Could it be that the educated and creatives of the coastal cities - the thinking class, the politically active on the Left - had become so callous and arrogant as to dismiss the suffering “little people” they once worked to protect and defend - or had that also been an act? One thing for sure: the Democratic Party lost this group as core constituents and they had to search elsewhere for a voter base.

Another thing had changed along the way: the Democratic Party became dominated by activist women, who exhibited two outstanding behavioral tendencies: they tended to make decisions on the basis of emotion… their feelings about this-and-that; and they were much more ruthless in political battle than men - their emotions eclipsed age-old principles, such as the idea of fair play. In short, they resorted almost automatically to dirty fighting.

That is probably at the heart of what is most confounding and vexing about the great political division in America these days. We are under a vile spell of pervasive dirty fighting. Dirty fighters have no respect for reality or for principle; they do whatever they can do to win the fight. Bad faith is the order of the day. Hence, the battle over how elections will be conducted and who gets to vote. You can read about it in Monday’s (Dec 26th) New York Times, an above-the-fold story titled: "Democrats, Feeling New Strength, Plan to Go on Offense on Voting Rights." (As long as it stays up.) The story says:

"Now it is Democrats, who retained all but one of the governor’s offices they hold and won control of state legislatures in Michigan and Minnesota, who are ready to go on offense in 2023. They are putting forward a long list of proposals that include creating automatic voter registration systems, preregistering teenagers to vote before they turn 18, returning the franchise to felons released from prison and criminalizing election misinformation.”

Note the last three words. The Times boldly announces that opinion about elections should now be subject to criminal prosecution if it deviates from whatever the official story is - as determined by whom? Well, that would be a juridical apparatus controlled by the Democratic Party. Who else might it be? The Times doesn’t venture to say. You can also see that the Party doesn’t believe in any principle that states who or why somebody should be qualified to vote. Sign up people who manage to get a driver’s license, whether they are citizens or not. Sign up the convicted criminals and the children. Dirty fighting = dirty elections.

This is the direction our country has been going in. I can offer only one note of consolation about what looks like a pretty demoralizing predicament: what you’re seeing is the end product of the late-stage in the life of a society. Obviously, it is ending badly. The catch is we are entering a new era of American life, an era of deep economic disorder, especially, that will go very hard on the nation, that will rearrange many of the social categories we now take for granted, that will compel people of all classes to pay attention to reality, to what actually works and who actually knows how to work what works. In that disposition of things, dirty fighting will be recognized for what it is.

Perhaps the biggest part of that unspooling event will be the bankruptcy and the failure of the government in Washington, its consequent loss of legitimacy, and the end of its ability to control and harass the people who live under it. Think I’m kidding? Stand by now and wait for it."

"15 Big Retailers In US Closing Down Stores Right Now"

Full screen recommended,
Finance Today, 12/28/22:
"15 Big Retailers In US Closing Down Stores Right Now"

"Closures of businesses and large retail stores such as Walmart and Target could cause a jobs crisis and shortages of food and products in the United States and the world, aggravating the recession and economic crisis. In this documentary, we will see what is really happening in the economy, what the causes are and what we can do about it. To that end, in today's video, we compiled a list of some of the biggest names in their respective fields that have announced plans to close dozens or perhaps hundreds of sites.

Hundreds of shops have closed their doors recently. Our ability to spend money is being attacked from so many directions at once that a retail apocalypse is spreading throughout the United States. Most of us have less disposable income each month after covering fixed costs like rent or mortgage, utilities, transportation, and food. Some of us aren't even using that money; we're putting it away for when the next storm comes. As a result, enterprises of all sizes in the United States are seeing poorer sales, lower profitability, and lower earnings. After two very challenging years for our economy, many of these companies were already struggling to stay afloat. A pandemic, supply chain challenges, inflation, and skyrocketing commodity costs all contributed to the already harsh environment. Big companies like McDonald's and Disney are among those announcing store closures as they scramble to reduce overhead and stay afloat in the current economic downturn."
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Full screen recommended.
Finance Today, 12/28/22:
"10 Famous Grocery Stores In US That Are Going 
to Disappear Due To The Economic Crisis"

"Grocery Stores may be immune to the retail sector's bankruptcies. Not while competing with Walmart, Target, and Amazon-owned Whole Foods. Grocery may be tough. In recent years, grocers have faced supply chain disruptions, workforce shortages, disruptive mergers and acquisitions, and massive debt. Some big-box merchants saw huge sales spikes during the epidemic, but boutique grocers struggled. Even with rising sales, grocery store businesses often had to file for bankruptcy, close all their stores, and lay off all their employees.

Many supermarkets that were once ubiquitous names have come and gone. But our economy is crumbling. Some establishments that were once a major part of communities are disappearing due to excessive competition, razor-thin profit margins, a collapsing retail landscape, and changing purchasing preferences. This is a tough economy for all businesses, and the more we lose smaller specialist retail chains, the more we rely on large multinationals. This leaves buyers vulnerable to price rises and with fewer options.

Thousands more supermarkets may also close in the coming few years. According to Inmar Intelligence, 1.3% of U.S. stores have closed this year. The number of U.S. supermarkets may fall by an additional 6% over the next four years as consumers shift to e-commerce and companies battle with rising real estate, energy, labor, and supply costs. In other words, supermarket inflation is here to stay, and these are only the beginnings of a multi-year problem. In today's video, we assembled some once-thriving supermarket stores that are going broke, closing, and clinging by a thread as the economy worsens."
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"Streets of Philadelphia, Kensington Ave"

Full screen recommended.
SBC News, 12/28/22:
"Streets of Philadelphia, Kensington Ave"

"Problems with drugs and crime on Kensington Ave, Philadelphia's most dangerous street. In Philadelphia as a whole, violent crime and drug abuse are major issues. The city has a higher rate of violent crime than the national average and other similarly sized metropolitan areas. The drug overdose rate in Philadelphia is also concerning. Between 2013 and 2015, the number of drug overdose deaths in the city increased by 50%, with more than twice as many deaths from overdoses as homicides. 2 Kensington's high crime rate and drug abuse contribute significantly to Philadelphia's problems.

Because of the high number of drugs in the neighborhood, Kensington has the third-highest drug crime rate by neighborhood in Philadelphia, at 3.57. The opioid epidemic has played a significant role in this problem, as it has in much of the rest of the country. Opioid abuse has skyrocketed in the United States over the last two decades, and Philadelphia is no exception. In addition to having a high rate of drug overdose deaths, 80% of Philadelphia's overdose deaths involved opioids, and Kensington is a significant contributor to this figure. This Philadelphia neighborhood is said to have the largest open-air heroin market on the East Coast, with many neighbors migrating to the area for heroin and other opioids. With such a high concentration of drugs in Kensington, many state and local officials have focused on the neighborhood in an attempt to address Philadelphia's problem."
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Full screen recommended.
Bruce Springsteen, "Streets of Philadelphia"

Tuesday, December 27, 2022

"The US Economy Is Heading Into Economic Hell As Americans Drown In Debt - Prepare For Major Crisis"

Jeremiah Babe, 12/27/22:
"The US Economy Is Heading Into Economic Hell
 As Americans Drown In Debt - Prepare For Major Crisis"
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: Il Divo, "Wicked Game (Melancolia)"

Full screen recommended.
Il Divo, "Wicked Game (Melancolia)"
Live in London 2011

Gregory Mannarino, "Unstable: The Debt Market Time Bomb Is Again Ticking Louder And Faster"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 12/27/22:
"Unstable: The Debt Market Time Bomb 
Is Again Ticking Louder And Faster"
Comments here:

"Someone Is Bound To Do Something Stupid..."

"There are a multitude of fuses affixed to dozens of powder-kegs and little kids with matches are on the loose. I don’t know which of the fuses will be lit and which powder-keg will blow, but someone is bound to do something stupid, and then all hell will break loose. It could happen at any time. One military miscue. One assassination. One violent act that stirs the world. And the dominoes will topple, setting off fireworks not seen on this planet since 1939 – 1945. I can see it all very clearly."
- Jim Quinn

"Russia's 10 Apocalyptic Predictions, Nationwide Blackouts and Hybrid Warfare"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 12/27/22:
"Russia's 10 Apocalyptic Predictions,
 Nationwide Blackouts and Hybrid Warfare"
"Medvedev makes some apocalyptic predictions for the West; more attacks on substations throughout the USA; blackouts in Europe; Oil prices about to rise; Taiwan prepares for war; commuter chaos leaves hundreds of thousands stranded at airports; Europes mild weather is postponing Russias winter offensive."
Comments below:

Gerald Celente, "Trends In The News"

Full screen recommended.
VERY Strong Language Alert!
Gerald Celente, 12/27/22:
"Trends In The News"

An epic Gerald rant!