"Putin Doesn’t Bluff"

"Putin Doesn’t Bluff"

by Jim Rickards

"The war in Ukraine has been in a partial hiatus for the past two months. But that hiatus is coming to an end as Russia prepares its next move. Today, we’re looking ahead to what’s coming next. And here’s a hint: We could be entering a very dangerous period.

First off, the situation on the ground in Ukraine is best understood as a competition between the narrative and reality. The narrative consists of what you hear from mainstream media, the White House, the Pentagon, and official sources in the U.K., France, Germany and both EU and NATO headquarters in Brussels.

The narrative says that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, AFU, have beaten back Russian forces and reoccupied Kherson, which lies strategically on the Dnipro River, Kyiv’s main access to the Black Sea. Based on these advances, the narrative says that Russia is in retreat, Russian troops are demoralized, Putin is in jeopardy of being replaced and complete victory for Ukraine is just a matter of time. The narrative is then used as a basis for increased financial aid from the United States (over $60 billion and growing) and increased weapons shipments from NATO members.

Narrative vs. Reality: But as I’ve explained recently, the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine is almost completely at odds with the Western narrative. It’s true that Ukraine made recent advances in the east, but they were against lightly defended Russian positions on or near open terrain. Much has been made of Ukraine’s retaking of Kherson, but Russia regarded it as a city of little strategic value. Rather than waste resources fighting for it, they withdrew. The Russians also let the Ukrainians have the open land, which will later become a killing field for Russian artillery. That’s the reality you’re not being told.

In the words of retired U.S. Army Col. Douglas Macgregor: "The Biden administration repeatedly commits the unpardonable sin in a democratic society of refusing to tell the American people the truth: Contrary to the Western media’s popular “Ukrainian victory” narrative, which blocks any information that contradicts it, Ukraine is not winning and will not win this war. Months of heavy Ukrainian casualties, resulting from an endless series of pointless attacks against Russian defenses in southern Ukraine, have dangerously weakened Ukrainian forces."

Russia Is Preparing to Lower the Hammer: In the meantime, Russia is preparing to launch a massive counteroffensive. It’s completed its 300,000-man mobilization, with over 180,000 of those troops now deployed behind Russian lines in combat formations. The remaining 120,000 troops will arrive soon. This brings total Russian strength up to about 30 divisions.

Once again, Col. Macgregor: "The coming offensive phase of the conflict will provide a glimpse of the new Russian force that is emerging and its future capabilities…The numbers continue to grow, but the numbers already include 1,000 rocket artillery systems, thousands of tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones, plus 5,000 armored fighting vehicles, including at least 1,500 tanks, hundreds of manned fixed-wing attack aircraft, helicopters and bombers. This new force has little in common with the Russian army that intervened nine months ago on Feb. 24, 2022." Meanwhile, Ukrainian strength has been greatly diminished due to high casualty rates and being stretched thin.

Then What? If successful, the upcoming counteroffensive would give Russia control of the entire coast from the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. It would also give Russia control of the Dnipro River, which separates the western part of Ukraine from the eastern part and connects Kyiv to the Black Sea. Ukraine would be left as a rump state between Kyiv and Lviv. Almost all the industrial, technological and natural resource capacity of former Ukraine would be under Russian control. Whether any of this succeeds remains to be seen. Still, it is definitely coming, and the situation will grow more violent and chaotic.

The question then becomes, would the U.S. stand by and watch Russia defeat Ukraine militarily? Will it become more directly involved in ways that could risk actual conflict with Russia? After all, the U.S. is essentially fighting a proxy war against Russia. Ukraine is merely a means to an end as far as the U.S. goes. The U.S. has committed significant resources to defeat Russia, and a Russian victory would further undermine U.S. credibility in the world. The chances of escalation are therefore significant.

The Greatest Risk of Nuclear Confrontation Since the Cuban Missile Crisis: Depending on how events unfold, the world is potentially facing the greatest risk of nuclear confrontation since the Cuban Missile Crisis. A limited nuclear war is a real possibility in the not-distant future. Why do I say that?

U.S. elites have started psychological operations (psyops) aimed at Putin with nuclear weapons as the bait. They claim that Putin has threatened to use tactical weapons in Ukraine and possibly other parts of Eastern and Central Europe. That’s a lie; Putin never said that. When asked, both Putin and Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev said that if attacked, Russia would defend itself by all means necessary including the possible use of nuclear weapons. That’s not news. That has been Russian or Soviet policy since the early 1950s.

This lie about Putin’s intentions quickly morphed into another psyop about a “false flag” operation. That’s when you stage an attack disguised to look like an attack by your enemy in order to justify your own “retaliation,” which you were planning all along.

Nukes, “Dirty Bombs” and False Flags: Recently the narrative that Putin would use nukes or conduct a false flag operation morphed into a related narrative that Putin would use a “dirty bomb.” In effect, Putin would detonate a dirty bomb and then blame the Ukrainians and Americans. A dirty bomb is not a nuclear weapon, but it does employ radioactive material wrapped around conventional explosives. When detonated, the radioactive material is dispersed and can poison or kill any people or livestock in the area. It’s akin to what happened at Chernobyl in 1986. That nuclear reactor meltdown was an accident, not a bomb. But the effect of spreading radioactive material was similar to a dirty bomb.

Not to be outdone, the Russians countered by saying the U.S. or Ukraine would conduct the false flag by detonating a dirty bomb and then blaming the Russians as an excuse to escalate Western involvement in Ukraine. At this point, we have both sides warning the other side will conduct a false flag with a dirty bomb in order to justify their own pre-planned escalation. If a dirty bomb does go off, each side will blame the other and the truth will be a casualty of war.

Putin Doesn’t Bluff: It’s difficult to know what comes next. It could be that Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon. Russia might detonate a dirty bomb and blame Ukraine. The U.S. may use a tactical nuclear weapon if it suspects Russia is about to do so, an example of a first-strike advantage. The U.S. may detonate a dirty bomb and blame Russia in a classic false flag operation. Regardless, it’s not difficult to know that we’re on a path to nuclear war.

We also know that Putin doesn’t bluff. When George W. Bush raised the issue of Ukrainian entry into NATO, Putin invaded Georgia. When Obama staged a coup against a pro-Russian president in Kyiv, Putin annexed Crimea. When Biden green-lighted a Ukrainian assault in Donbas, Putin invaded Ukraine. Again, Putin doesn’t bluff. It would be a great blunder to believe otherwise. We’re sleepwalking down a road that could potentially lead to Armageddon."

- dailyreckoning.com

"Buy Lots Of Fuel And Store It Some Place Safe, Because Massive Outages Are Coming This Winter"

Full screen recommended.

"Buy Lots Of Fuel And Store It Some Place Safe, 

Because Massive Outages Are Coming This Winter"

by Epic Economist

"If you need to drive to work on a regular basis or if you rely on fuel to heat your home, it’s time to consider stocking up on energy supplies and storing fuels in a safe place because the signs of a winter crisis are already multiplying. The U.S. is currently grappling with one of the worst fuel shortages in decades, with reserves at the lowest seasonal level ever. As we head into the winter, inventories of distillate fuels are being rapidly depleted, and some areas of the country have already started rationing fuel. Now, we’re being warned that despite the recent decline in prices seen over the past few weeks, winter prices will be very different. Demand for energy supplies is expected to soar this month, and so is the cost of filling up your tank and keeping your home warm amid falling temperatures. Industry executives are very alarmed about the impact this crisis is going to have on household budgets, and you should be, too.

Official data released by the Energy Information Administration revealed that national inventories of distillate fuels, - which include gasoline, diesel, and heating oil, - are at their lowest level since 2008. These shrinking reserves are why diesel prices are above $5.00 a gallon nationwide, even though the nationwide average price for gasoline has dropped below $4.00 a gallon. Unfortunately, the measures that allowed that decline to happen can’t stay in place forever because they’re causing some serious imbalances in the fuel industry. Refineries were ordered to produce more gasoline to expand supply and lower prices, and in turn, they were producing less diesel, which pushed prices up by 265% since January 2021 in the spot market of New York harbor, and caused a 38% rise in November alone.

While most consumers may not be directly impacted by skyrocketing diesel prices, they’re actually indirectly impacted in a host of different ways. Given that manufacturers use diesel to power up their operations and truckers need the fuel to deliver goods all over the country, the trickle-down effect of those increased costs eventually hit consumers, who are already confronting the most acute inflation spike in a generation.

To rebuild the inventory of diesel, refineries must produce less gasoline, which will then result in another surge in prices at the pump. In the East Cost, drivers have seen gas prices hit $8 to $10 a gallon this year, and Bloomberg reported that many gas stations have completely run out of supplies already, and these stockouts are silently spreading across the country. On top of all that, diesel is the main component of heating oil, which is used by millions of U.S. households during the winter. Electricity operators also need the fuel. The combustion of the distillate produces natural gas, the energy supply used to power up our homes.

Things could get exponentially worse as the cold season begins. All in all, the diesel crisis could cost the US economy $100 billion this year, according to Mark Finley, an energy fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute of Public Policy. "Anything and everything that gets moved in our economy, diesel is there. Moving stuff around is one thing. People potentially freezing to death is another," he said. In the short term, there are no signs of relief in sight for this situation. And, at the end of the day, “it’s not gonna be pretty for the consumer,” as pointed out by Robert Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com/

Musical Interlude: Vangelis, "Alpha"

Despite ourselves, this song always suggested the images of 

Mankind's relentless march through the ages to our unknown destiny...

Vangelis, "Alpha"

“The sands of time blew into a storm of images... images in sequence to tell the truth! Glorious legends of revolutionaries, bound only by a desire to be true to themselves, and to hope! Parables of colliding worlds, of forbidden love, of enemies healing the wounds of circumstance! Projected myth of persecution through greed and selfishness... and the will to survive! The Will to survive! And to survive in the face of those who claim credit for your very existence! We survive not as pawns, but as agents of hope. Sometimes misunderstood, but always true to our story. The story of Man."

- Scott Morse

"A Look to the Heavens, With Chet Raymo"

“Learning And Yearning”

by Chet Raymo

“This photograph of the Eagle Nebula made by a rather modest telescope - the 0.9 meter instrument at Kitt Peak, Arizona - appeared on APOD. I sat in front of the computer screen for ten minutes, breathless. One tiny corner of the Milky Way Galaxy, one of tens of billions of galaxies that we can potentially see with our telescopes! At the center are the so-called "Pillars of Creation" from a famous Hubble photograph.

I recall when the Hubble photograph appeared in the media hundreds of viewers claimed to see the face of Jesus in the billowing clouds. Which prompted these observations from "Skeptics and True Believers": "In an article on the psychological basis of belief, the psychologist James Alcock proposed that two aspects of the human brain might be called the "yearning unit" and the "learning unit." He probably didn't mean these terms to be taken literally, as referring to separate compartments of the brain, but yearning and learning are certainly central to the way we interact with the world. It is hard to imagine how we can be fully human without a little of each. Finding the proper balance between the two is a task that can keep us occupied for most of our lives.

We yearn when we dream of fulfillment, of greater happiness, of knowing more. We yearn when we love, when we laugh, when we cry, when we pray. Yearning is wondering what is around the next bend, over the rainbow, beyond the horizon. Yearning is curiosity. Yearning is the driving force of science, philosophy, and religion.

Learning is listening to parents, wise men, shamans. Learning is reading, going to school, traveling, doing experiments, being skeptical. Learning is looking behind the curtain for the Wizard of Oz, touching the stove to see if it's hot, not taking anyone's word for it. In science, learning means trying as hard to prove that something is wrong as to prove it right, even if that something is a cherished belief.

Yearning without learning is seeing Elvis in a crowd, the fossilized footprints of humans and dinosaurs together in ancient rocks, weeping statues. Yearning without learning is buying tabloid newspapers with headlines announcing "Newborn baby talks of Heaven" and the like. Yearning without learning is looking for UFOs in the sky and the meaning of life in horoscopes.

Learning without yearning is pedantry, scientism, dogmatic belief. Learning without yearning is believing that we know it all, that what we see is what we get, that nothing exists except what can be presently weighed and measured. Learning without yearning is science without a heart, without a dream, without a hope of beauty. Yearning without learning is seeing the face of Jesus in a gassy nebula. Learning without yearning is seeing only the gas."

- http://blog.sciencemusings.com/

"So, How Do You Beat The Odds..."

“So, how do you beat the odds when it’s one against a billion? You’re just outnumbered. You stand strong, keep pushing yourself against all rational limits, and never give up. But the truth of the matter is despite how hard you try and fight to stay in control, when it’s all said and done, sometimes you’re just outnumbered.”

- "Meredith", "Gray's Anatomy"

The Poet: W.H. Auden, "September 1, 1939"

 "September 1, 1939"

"Defenseless

under the night

Our world in stupor lies;

Yet, dotted everywhere,

Ironic points of light

Flash out

wherever the Just

Exchange their messages:

May I, composed like them

Of Eros and of dust,

Beleaguered by the same

Negation and despair,

Show an affirming flame."

- W.H. Auden

On September 1, 1939 Nazi Germany invaded Poland. You know the rest...

Mark Twain, “On The Damned Human Race”

“On The Damned Human Race”

by Mark Twain

“I have been studying the traits and dispositions of the lower animals (so-called), and contrasting them with the traits and dispositions of man. I find the result humiliating to me. For it obliges me to renounce my allegiance to the Darwinian theory of the Ascent of Man from the Lower Animals; since it now seems plain to me that the theory ought to be vacated in favor of a new and truer one, this new and truer one to be named the Descent of Man from the Higher Animals.

In proceeding toward this unpleasant conclusion I have not guessed or speculated or conjectured, but have used what is commonly called the scientific method. That is to say, I have subjected every postulate that presented itself to the crucial test of actual experiment, and have adopted it or rejected it according to the result. Thus I verified and established each step of my course in its turn before advancing to the next. These experiments were made in the London Zoological Gardens, and covered many months of painstaking and fatiguing work.

Before particularizing any of the experiments, I wish to state one or two things which seem to more properly belong in this place than further along. This, in the interest of clearness. The massed experiments established to my satisfaction certain generalizations, to wit:

1. That the human race is of one distinct species. It exhibits slight variations (in color, stature, mental caliber, and so on) due to climate, environment, and so forth; but it is a species by itself, and not to be confounded with any other.

2. That the quadrupeds are a distinct family, also. This family exhibits variations (in color, size, food preferences, and so on; but it is a family by itself).

3. That the other families (the birds, the fishes, the insects, the reptiles, etc.) are more or less distinct, also. They are in the procession. They are links in the chain which stretches down from the higher animals to man at the bottom.

Some of my experiments were quite curious. In the course of my reading I had come across a case where, many years ago, some hunters on our Great Plains organized a buffalo hunt for the entertainment of an English earl. They had charming sport. They killed seventy-two of those great animals; and ate part of one of them and left the seventy-one to rot. In order to determine the difference between an anaconda and an earl (if any) I caused seven young calves to be turned into the anaconda’s cage. The grateful reptile immediately crushed one of them and swallowed it, then lay back satisfied. It showed no further interest in the calves, and no disposition to harm them. I tried this experiment with other anacondas; always with the same result. The fact stood proven that the difference between an earl and an anaconda is that the earl is cruel and the anaconda isn’t; and that the earl wantonly destroys what he has no use for, but the anaconda doesn’t. This seemed to suggest that the anaconda was not descended from the earl. It also seemed to suggest that the earl was descended from the anaconda, and had lost a good deal in the transition.

I was aware that many men who have accumulated more millions of money than they can ever use have shown a rabid hunger for more, and have not scrupled to cheat the ignorant and the helpless out of their poor servings in order to partially appease that appetite. I furnished a hundred different kinds of wild and tame animals the opportunity to accumulate vast stores of food, but none of them would do it. The squirrels and bees and certain birds made accumulations, but stopped when they had gathered a winter’s supply, and could not be persuaded to add to it either honestly or by chicane. In order to bolster up a tottering reputation the ant pretended to store up supplies, but I was not deceived. I know the ant. These experiments convinced me that there is this difference between man and the higher animals: he is avaricious and miserly; they are not. In the course of my experiments I convinced myself that among the animals man is the only one that harbors insults and injuries, broods over them, waits till a chance offers, then takes revenge. The passion of revenge is unknown to the higher animals.

Roosters keep harems, but it is by consent of their concubines; therefore no wrong is done. Men keep harems but it is by brute force, privileged by atrocious laws which the other sex were allowed no hand in making. In this matter man occupies a far lower place than the rooster. Cats are loose in their morals, but not consciously so. Man, in his descent from the cat, has brought the cats looseness with him but has left the unconsciousness behind (the saving grace which excuses the cat). The cat is innocent, man is not.

Indecency, vulgarity, obscenity (these are strictly confined to man); he invented them. Among the higher animals there is no trace of them. They hide nothing; they are not ashamed. Man, with his soiled mind, covers himself. He will not even enter a drawing room with his breast and back naked, so alive are he and his mates to indecent suggestion. Man is The Animal that Laughs. But so does the monkey, as Mr. Darwin pointed out; and so does the Australian bird that is called the laughing jackass. No! Man is the Animal that Blushes. He is the only one that does it or has occasion to.

Of all the animals, man is the only one that is cruel. He is the only one that inflicts pain for the pleasure of doing it. It is a trait that is not known to the higher animals. The cat plays with the frightened mouse; but she has this excuse, that she does not know that the mouse is suffering. The cat is moderate (unhumanly moderate: she only scares the mouse, she does not hurt it; she doesn’t dig out its eyes, or tear off its skin, or drive splinters under its nails) man-fashion; when she is done playing with it she makes a sudden meal of it and puts it out of its trouble. Man is the Cruel Animal. He is alone in that distinction.

The higher animals engage in individual fights, but never in organized masses. Man is the only animal that deals in that atrocity of atrocities, War. He is the only one that gathers his brethren about him and goes forth in cold blood and with calm pulse to exterminate his kind. He is the only animal that for sordid wages will march out, as the Hessians did in our Revolution, and as the boyish Prince Napoleon did in the Zulu war, and help to slaughter strangers of his own species who have done him no harm and with whom he has no quarrel.

Man is the only animal that robs his helpless fellow of his country, takes possession of it and drives him out of it or destroys him. Man has done this in all the ages. There is not an acre of ground on the globe that is in possession of its rightful owner, or that has not been taken away from owner after owner, cycle after cycle, by force and bloodshed.

Man is the only Slave. And he is the only animal who enslaves. He has always been a slave in one form or another, and has always held other slaves in bondage under him in one way or another. In our day he is always some man’s slave for wages and does that man’s work; and this slave has other slaves under him for minor wages, and they do his work. The higher animals are the only ones who exclusively do their own work and provide their own living.

Man is the only Patriot. He sets himself apart in his own country, under his own flag, and sneers at the other nations, and keeps multitudinous uniformed assassins on hand at heavy expense to grab slices of other people’s countries, and keep them from grabbing slices of his. And in the intervals between campaigns, he washes the blood off his hands and works for the universal brotherhood of man, with his mouth.

Man is the Religious Animal. He is the only Religious Animal. He is the only animal that has the True Religion, several of them. He is the only animal that loves his neighbor as himself, and cuts his throat if his theology isn’t straight. He has made a graveyard of the globe in trying his honest best to smooth his brother’s path to happiness and heaven. He was at it in the time of the Caesars, he was at it in Mahomet’s time, he was at it in the time of the Inquisition, he was at it in France a couple of centuries, he was at it in England in Mary’s day, he has been at it ever since he first saw the light, he is at it today in Crete (as per the telegrams quoted above) he will be at it somewhere else tomorrow. The higher animals have no religion. And we are told that they are going to be left out, in the Hereafter. I wonder why? It seems questionable taste.

Man is the Reasoning Animal. Such is the claim. I think it is open to dispute. Indeed, my experiments have proven to me that he is the Unreasoning Animal. Note his history, as sketched above. It seems plain to me that whatever he is he is not a reasoning animal. His record is the fantastic record of a maniac. I consider that the strongest count against his intelligence is the fact that with that record back of him he blandly sets himself up as the head animal of the lot: whereas by his own standards he is the bottom one. In truth, man is incurably foolish.

One is obliged to concede that in true loftiness of character, Man cannot claim to approach even the meanest of the Higher Animals. It is plain that he is constitutionally incapable of approaching that altitude; that he is constitutionally afflicted with a Defect which must make such approach forever impossible, for it is manifest that this defect is permanent in him, indestructible, ineradicable. I find this Defect to be the Moral Sense. He is the only animal that has it. It is the secret of his degradation. It is the quality which enables him to do wrong. It has no other office. It is incapable of performing any other function. It could never have been intended to perform any other. Without it, man could do no wrong. He would rise at once to the level of the Higher Animals.

Since the Moral Sense has but the one office, the one capacity (to enable man to do wrong) it is plainly without value to him. It is as valueless to him as is disease. In fact, it manifestly is a disease. Rabies is bad, but it is not so bad as this disease. Rabies enables a man to do a thing, which he could not do when in a healthy state: kill his neighbor with a poisonous bite) one is the better man for having rabies: The Moral Sense enables a man to do wrong. It enables him to do wrong in a thousand ways. Rabies is an innocent disease, compared to the Moral Sense. No one, then, can be the better man for having the Moral Sense. What now, do we find the Primal Curse to have been? Plainly what it was in the beginning: the infliction upon man of the Moral Sense; the ability to distinguish good from evil; and with it, necessarily, the ability to do evil; for there can be no evil act without the presence of consciousness of it in the doer of it.

And so I find that we have descended and degenerated, from some far ancestor (some microscopic atom wandering at its pleasure between the mighty horizons of a drop of water perchance) insect by insect, animal by animal, reptile by reptile, down the long highway of smirch-less innocence, till we have reached the bottom stage of development (namable as the Human Being). Below us, nothing.”

Freely download: "'What Is Man' And Other Essays", by Mark Twain, here:

- http://pinkmonkey.com/dl/library1/digi036.pdf

"When That Day Comes..."

"If you had one last breath - what would you say? If you had one hour to use your limbs before you would lose the use of them forever - would you sit there on the coach? If you knew that you wouldn't see tomorrow who would you make amends with? If you knew you had only an hour left on this earth - what would be so pressing that you just had to do it, say it, or see it? Well there is something that I can guarantee - that one day you will have one day, one hour and one breath left. Just make sure that before that day that you have said, done and experienced everything that you dream of doing now. Do it now - that is what today is for. So pick up the phone and call an old friend that you have fallen out of touch with. Get out and run a mile and use your body and sweat. Seek out someone in your life to say you're sorry to. Seek someone In your life that you need to thank. Seek someone in your life that you need to express your feelings of love to. Then when that day comes you will be ok with it all."

- John A. Passaro

"If you were going to die soon and had only one phone call you could make,

who would you call and what would you say?  And why are you waiting?"

~ Stephen Levine

"It Is Our Fate..."

"Well, it is our fate to live in a time of crisis. To live in a time when all forms and values are being challenged. In other and more easy times, it was not, perhaps, necessary for the individual to confront himself with a clear question: What is it that you really believe? What is it that you really cherish? What is it for which you might, actually, in a showdown, be willing to die? I say, with all the reticence which such large, pathetic words evoke, that one cannot exist today as a person – one cannot exist in full consciousness – without having to have a showdown with one’s self, without having to define what it is that one lives by, without being clear in one’s mind what matters and what does not matter.” 

- Dorothy Thompson

"Could 65 Trillion Dollars In 'Hidden' Derivatives Cause The Entire Global Financial System To Crash?"

"Could 65 Trillion Dollars In 'Hidden' Derivatives

 Cause The Entire Global Financial System To Crash?"

by Michael Snyder

"If you thought that the collapse of FTX was something, just wait until the entire global financial system comes crashing down all around us. Most people just assume that the system is being managed by rational people that behave in rational ways, but of course countless investors assumed the same things about FTX. Sadly, the global financial system has slowly but surely been transformed into the largest casino in the history of the world. It is a colossal Ponzi scheme, and once in a while authorities give us a little peek into what is really going on behind the curtain.

For example, this week the Bank for International Settlements released a report that warned that 65 trillion dollars in “hidden” currency derivatives could potentially be a major threat to the stability of the entire system…"There’s a hidden risk to the global financial system embedded in the $65 trillion of dollar debt being held by non-US institutions via currency derivatives, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

In a paper with the title “huge, missing and growing,” the BIS said a lack of information is making it harder for policy makers to anticipate the next financial crisis. In particular, they raised concern with the fact that the debt is going unrecorded on balance sheets because of accounting conventions on how to track derivative positions."

Last year, the total value of all goods and services produced in the entire world was just 96 trillion dollars. So we are talking about an amount of money that is almost unimaginable. Everything will be okay as long as financial conditions remain relatively stable. But BIS analysts warn that “the next time dollar funding liquidity is squeezed” we could have an enormous crisis on our hands…

“Off-balance-sheet dollar debt may remain out of sight and out of mind—but only until the next time dollar funding liquidity is squeezed,” the analysts write. “Then, the hidden leverage in pension funds and insurance companies’ portfolios . . . could pose a policy challenge.” So let’s hope that such a scenario does not materialize any time soon.

According to the BIS report, banks outside the U.S. are particularly vulnerable…"For researchers at the BIS, it’s the sheer scale of the swaps that’s worrying. They estimate that banks headquartered outside the US carry $39 trillion of this debt — more than double their on-balance sheet obligations and ten times their capital. Accounting conventions only require derivatives to be booked on a net basis, so the full extent of the cash involved isn’t recorded on a balance sheet. “There is a staggering volume of off-balance sheet dollar debt that is partly hidden, and FX risk settlement remains stubbornly high,” said Borio, head of the monetary and economic department at the BIS."

When this thing finally implodes, there isn’t going to be enough money in the entire world to fix it all. But don’t worry. The “experts” are telling us that everything is fine.

Meanwhile, more of our largest corporations are planning layoffs. According to the Wall Street Journal, this even includes PepsiCo…"PepsiCo is reported laying off headquarter workers, The Wall Street Journal reports. A person familiar with the matter told the Journal that hundreds of jobs are being cut in the head office of the North American snacks and beverages divisions. Employees in Purchase, N.Y., Chicago, Ill. and Plano, Tex. are said to be impacted."

I thought that PepsiCo was doing well. I guess not. But don’t worry. The “experts” are telling us that everything is fine.

This week some of the biggest names in the mainstream media have also announced layoffs…"Hundreds of media industry staffers were laid off this week during a brutal period that saw Warner Bros. Discovery, Gannett and others slash headcount as economic uncertainty plagues news organizations. Gannett, a newspaper juggernaut that owns dozens of local media outlets along with USA Today, began its latest round of layoffs on Thursday. The cost-cutting effort impacted roughly 6% of the company’s news workforce of about 3,440 employees."

I can’t remember ever seeing such a wave of layoffs at our largest media companies. But don’t worry. The “experts” are telling us that everything is fine.

Of course the truth is that everything is not fine. Economic conditions are deteriorating all around us, and the ripple effects are being felt everywhere. According to Fox Business, even Las Vegas is feeling the pain…"Inflation is taking its toll on Sin City as fewer tourists are visiting the gambling Mecca, and those who do spend less than usual, according to a new report.

The University of Las Vegas business school released a report forecasting the city’s economic outlook between 2022 and 2024 and noted that its economy turned grim in June of this year, according to Fox 5. “Interest rates have gone up. And we know that we know that prices are going up as well. And that’s what the Fed is trying to get their hands around and solve. So it may be that the Fed’s policies is having an effect not only nationally, but it’s also affecting our economy locally,” one of the study’s authors, Professor Stephen Miller, told the outlet."

2008 and 2009 were incredibly difficult years for Las Vegas. Now those that run businesses in Sin City are bracing for another extended downturn. In all my years of writing, I have never been more concerned about the short-term economic outlook them I am right now.

It is very likely that 2023 will be a really hard year for the U.S. economy, and of course this comes at a time when the entire globe is being hit by crisis after crisis. For ages we have been warned that a day of reckoning would eventually be coming, and now it appears that day of reckoning has already arrived. There is certainly nothing wrong with hoping for the best. But there is also wisdom in getting prepared for the worst."

- http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

The Daily "Near You?"

Pensacola, Florida, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

“Neuroscience Says Listening to This Song Reduces Anxiety by Up to 65 Percent”

Full screen recommended.

“Neuroscience Says Listening to This Song 

Reduces Anxiety by Up to 65 Percent”

By Melanie Curtin

“Everyone knows they need to manage their stress. When things get difficult at work, school, or in your personal life, you can use as many tips, tricks, and techniques as you can get to calm your nerves. So here’s a science-backed one: make a playlist of the 10 songs found to be the most relaxing on earth. Sound therapies have long been popular as a way of relaxing and restoring one’s health. For centuries, indigenous cultures have used music to enhance well-being and improve health conditions.

Now, neuroscientists out of the UK have specified which tunes give you the most bang for your musical buck. The study was conducted on participants who attempted to solve difficult puzzles as quickly as possible while connected to sensors. The puzzles induced a certain level of stress, and participants listened to different songs while researchers measured brain activity as well as physiological states that included heart rate, blood pressure, and rate of breathing.

According to Dr. David Lewis-Hodgson of Mindlab International, which conducted the research, the top song produced a greater state of relaxation than any other music tested to date. In fact, listening to that one song- “Weightless”- resulted in a striking 65 percent reduction in participants’ overall anxiety, and a 35 percent reduction in their usual physiological resting rates. That is remarkable.

Equally remarkable is the fact the song was actually constructed to do so. The group that created “Weightless”, Marconi Union, did so in collaboration with sound therapists. Its carefully arranged harmonies, rhythms, and bass lines help slow a listener’s heart rate, reduce blood pressure and lower levels of the stress hormone cortisol.

When it comes to lowering anxiety, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Stress either exacerbates or increases the risk of health issues like heart disease, obesity, depression, gastrointestinal problems, asthma, and more. More troubling still, a recent paper out of Harvard and Stanford found health issues from job stress alone cause more deaths than diabetes, Alzheimer’s, or influenza.

In this age of constant bombardment, the science is clear: if you want your mind and body to last, you’ve got to prioritize giving them a rest. Music is an easy way to take some of the pressure off of all the pings, dings, apps, tags, texts, emails, appointments, meetings, and deadlines that can easily spike your stress level and leave you feeling drained and anxious.

Of the top track, Dr. David Lewis-Hodgson said, “‘Weightless’ was so effective, many women became drowsy and I would advise against driving while listening to the song because it could be dangerous.” So don’t drive while listening to these, but do take advantage of them:

10. “We Can Fly,” by Rue du Soleil (Café Del Mar)

9. “Canzonetta Sull’aria,” by Mozart

8. “Someone Like You,” by Adele

7. “Pure Shores,” by All Saints

6. “Please Don’t Go,” by Barcelona

5. “Strawberry Swing,” by Coldplay

4. “Watermark,” by Enya

3. “Mellomaniac (Chill Out Mix),” by DJ Shah

2. “Electra,” by Airstream

1. “Weightless,” by Marconi Union

I made a public playlist of all of them on Spotify that runs about 50 minutes (it’s also downloadable).”

- http://www.stumbleupon.com/

"You Won't Believe This!"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly, 12/6/22

"You Won't Believe This!"

"This is amazing. We are seeing some crazy economic predictions for 2023. These are not what you think they would be. It is shocking how these experts have completely predicted the opposite of what is happening now in the economy."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Everybody And Everything Is More Important Than You"

"Everybody And Everything Is More Important Than You"

You will sacrifice and sacrifice until there’s nothing left to sacrifice.

by Robert Gore

"If we’re all responsible to everybody, what’s in it for you? How does it work, exactly? Can you claim anything - your production, property, expression, body, mind, life, or soul - for yourself? If you can’t, if everyone else has first claim to them, what can you claim for yourself? Do you give up everything for our eight billion fellow earth-citizens as they give up everything for you? Do you get one eight-billioneth of what’s nominally everyone else’s? Or is this supposed to be pure sacrifice - give up everything and receive nothing in return? If you give up everything, is there any you left?

It’s best not to think about such questions, they won’t get you anywhere but confused. What you do know is what you’ve been told your entire life: everything you do for others is good; everything you do for yourself is selfish and bad. Just look what happens when everyone pulls together in a cause greater than themselves, like war. Isn’t that a cause greater than yourself, maiming and killing people you don’t know? You must be doing it for the greater good, because you might be maimed or killed by those people you don’t know. Oh, you can’t let yourself think of it that way. Everyone has to pitch in.

Government must be a cause greater than yourself, because you spend several months every year working to pay your taxes. That’s a good chunk of money, and you and millions of other hard-working Americans pay it. People complain a bit, but everybody pays, because it’s necessary to keep the country running and fund all the great things the government does. Like what, exactly? You’re funding those wars, and a lot of money ends up in the pockets of people who are of no discernible benefit to you. A lot of it stays right there in Washington. And even with all the money they take in they are still $31 trillion in the hole. Stop it! You can’t let yourself think of it that way; we’ve got to have government.

Think what would have happened the last couple of years if we hadn’t had the government. We saw that pull-together spirit, with everyone wearing their masks and getting vaccinated. Well, almost everybody. There were a few people who didn’t wear masks or get vaccinated.

But here’s where things started to break down. Because you know a few antisocial refuseniks and they either didn’t get sick or if they got sick, they took care of themselves, took the medicines they weren’t supposed to take, and got well. And you know people who had both rounds of vaccines and every booster and got sick. And there are those stories, all over the Internet, about apparently healthy people, young people, collapsing, some dying; you’ve seen the videos.

The thoughts you can’t shut down started when somebody close to you, a relative or friend, had a severe reaction after a shot, or told you about someone they know who did. And maybe you brushed it off, but then it happened again...and again. These weren’t stories on the Internet; this was direct experience, or direct experience once removed. And it wasn’t just severe reactions, the afflicted recovering after hospitalization. There were long term effects for which there are apparently no cures, lives ruined. And there were those who died. You know of more people harmed by the cure than the disease.

One day, out of nowhere, the question popped into your head: Who’s collecting the sacrificial offerings? Because that’s what all this is - sacrificial offerings - not to propitiate some unseen deity, but to line the pockets and to increase the power of those telling you that you have to sacrifice! That’s the thought you’ve pushing down all these years: All this sacrifice is a damn scam, a racket! Once you gave it some thought, you realized it’s been going on for years, decades, centuries. Somebody telling people they must sacrifice for some greater good, and those same somebodies collecting the sacrificial offerings.

If we’re all responsible to everybody, what’s in it for you? Nothing, absolutely nothing. Actually, less than nothing. You no longer have whatever it is you offer. It’s not even an offering, something you do voluntarily. Your “offerings” are taken from you under implicit or explicit threat of force. What you get back, if anything, is worth less to you than what you gave up.

You’ve never minded giving up things for something you regarded as a greater value - saving for the down payment on a house or a child’s college education. Paying for groceries and utilities rather than taking a vacation you couldn’t afford. Those weren’t sacrifices, not like the sacrifices you’re told you must make for the greater good, where you give up something and get nothing in return.

If you’re giving something and getting nothing, somebody’s getting something and giving nothing. Think of what they’ve done with your sacrifices - your money, your time, and your life - and what you could have done with them. There’s nothing greater or good about their greater good; the country’s going to hell in a hand basket. We’re riding a ruination train downhill, the grade is getting steeper and steeper, and the engineer has it on full throttle.

Their greater good is your greater bad - your life gets increasingly risky and difficult. What you’re paying out is rising faster than what you’re taking in. All while money is tossed down the toilet of the latest war and domestic boondoggles and the trillion-dollar milestones on the national debt come faster and faster. You hear the bell tolling: doom, doom, doom.

You’re dealing with reality to the fullest extent of your capacity so that people you despise, and who despise you, don’t have to. Accept the morality of sacrifice, accept that everybody and everything is more important than you, and you’ve issued them a blank check. They have, they are, and they will continue to take everything you offer, up to and including your life.

The lie has always been that the sacrifices of you and your fellow sacrificers would build a better world for everyone. Now they no longer try to hide it: sacrifice gets you worse, not better. Bugs instead of meat; an urban apartment instead of a house and land; mass transit instead of a personal automobile; a guaranteed income instead of meaningful work; computer entries instead of money, surveillance instead of privacy; compliance instead of freedom; punishment instead of reward.

“And you will be happy.” That assurance is as stale and false as the phony causes they trot out to justify your unhappiness: the climate, the earth, a virus, a war, an alien invasion, the common good, etc. We do owe them one debt. The last few years have made it obvious to anyone who will look that it’s not about the phony causes, it never has been; it’s about power and control, and always has been.

That’s not nothing, for from that recognition comes the realization: run from those demanding sacrifice, which at the least means every government on the planet. Sadly, running is only possible in the metaphorical sense. Gangster governments are the order of the day, regardless of how they cloak their intentions and actions.

"And when you ask ’em, 'How much should we give?'

Ooh, they only answer, 'More, more, more, more!'

“Fortunate Son,” John Fogerty, Credence Clearwater Revival, 1969

You will sacrifice and sacrifice until there’s nothing left to sacrifice, and then they’ll discard you like last night’s garbage. Your life means one thing to them - enslaved, subjugated submission. It’s the less than zero existence, the logical consequence, of everybody and everything is more important than you.

Accept that - and most people do - and you’ll deserve what you get - less than zero. Claim your life and resolve that nothing is more important to you than the freedom to live it, and your course will be fraught with danger. It’s not the less-than-zeros who change things; expect nothing from them but opposition. If you want what’s yours you’re going to have to fight for it, and yes, fight means fight. That is the truth that can no longer be evaded.

Resistance is lonely and dangerous. Choose it, and you may have compatriots, but if you’re not careful, you’ll also have false friends who will betray you in the darkest hour. You will, fortunately, have an ally in the incompetence and evil of those who seek to enslave you. Nothing they’ve established can last and their system is collapsing. In some ways that will make things easier - bankrupt and collapsed governments don’t have the wherewithal to maintain order. However, chaos presents its own dangers.

Fight for your life, or accept endless sacrifice and less than zero. There are no other choices, no middle ground. It’s your choice. It’s your life."

- https://straightlinelogic.com/

o

Credence Clearwater Revival, “Fortunate Son"

"How It Really Is"

 

"Massive Sales At Meijer! Check This Out! Stock Up Now!"

Full screen recommended.

Adventures with Danno, 12/6/22

"Massive Sales At Meijer! Check This Out! Stock Up Now!"

"In today's vlog we are at Meijer, and are noticing massive sales on groceries! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and the food shortage situation! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Prepare For Total Grid Collapse; Can You Survive Off Grid For A Week?"

Jeremiah Babe, 12/5/22

"Prepare For Total Grid Collapse;

 Can You Survive Off Grid For A Week?"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Musical Interlude: 2002, "Memory of the Sky"

Full screen recommended.

2002, "Memory of the Sky"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“This shock wave plows through space at over 500,000 kilometers per hour. Moving toward to bottom of this beautifully detailed color composite, the thin, braided filaments are actually long ripples in a sheet of glowing gas seen almost edge on. Cataloged as NGC 2736, its narrow appearance suggests its popular name, the Pencil Nebula.

About 5 light-years long and a mere 800 light-years away, the Pencil Nebula is only a small part of the Vela supernova remnant. The Vela remnant itself is around 100 light-years in diameter and is the expanding debris cloud of a star that was seen to explode about 11,000 years ago. Initially, the shock wave was moving at millions of kilometers per hour but has slowed considerably, sweeping up surrounding interstellar gas.”

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap120924.html

"I'm Sure..."

"Two possibilities exist: Either we are alone in the Universe

 or we are not. Both are equally terrifying."

"I'm sure the universe is full of intelligent life.

It's just been too intelligent to come here."

- Arthur C. Clarke

"Still, Sometimes..."

“The early bird catches the worm. A stitch in time saves nine. He who hesitates is lost. We can’t pretend we haven’t been told. We’ve all heard the proverbs, heard the philosophers, heard our grandparents warning us about wasted time, heard the damn poets urging us to seize the day. Still, sometimes, we have to see for ourselves. We have to make our own mistakes. We have to learn our own lessons. We have to sweep today’s possibility under tomorrow’s rug, until we can’t anymore, until we finally understand for ourselves what Benjamin Franklin meant: That knowing is better than wondering. That waking is better than sleeping. And that even the biggest failure, even the worst, most intractable mistake, beats the hell out of never trying.”

- “Meredith”, “Grey’s Anatomy”

"Red Alert: Attack On Russian Nuclear Base"

Full screen recommended.

Canadian Prepper, 12/5/22:

"Red Alert: Attack On Russian Nuclear Base"

"This is the biggest escalation since the start of the war."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"Ukraine Drone Hits Russia Base 150 Miles From Moscow"

Full screen recommended.

Judge Napolitano, Phil Giraldi 12/5/22:

"Ukraine Drone Hits Russia Base 150 Miles From Moscow"

"Explosion at Nuclear Airbase Just 150 Miles From 

Moscow Opens Stunning New Phase of War"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

The Daily "Near You?"

Roosevelt, Utah, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Angels and Devils"

"Angels and Devils"

Age and treachery, details and statistics, lies and economics...

by Bill Bonner

"Sleep, baby, sleep,

Angels watch over you..."

~ Jimmie Rodgers

Baltimore, Maryland -  You’re going to go to the hospital,” said the doctor. “But I don’t want to go to the hospital.” “Why not?” “I might catch something.” “You’ve already got something. You need to stay for at least 24 hours so we can keep an eye on you.” “What if I just keep an eye on myself?” Eventually, age and treachery triumphed over the doctor’s youth and skill. We went home.

And there, we spent last week in bed. We lay in a near-coma, from some form of flu. Drifting in and out of wakefulness…an angel hovered at the end of the bed. Were its wings brushing against our flushed cheeks? Or was it the HVAC system merely warming the room?.

The angel was actually a Latin American painting of an “armed saint,” a very fine young man in a luxurious outfit, holding a muzzle-loading rifle. And he had wings. In our tormented state, we saw something new. It seemed to us that there was also another face, hidden in the folds of his 17th century finery, much more sinister. We hadn’t noticed it when we were feeling well. But weak, and sick, trembling with cold or bathed in sweat, the devils and demons show up.

Poorer Workers: And now we are back in the office. A little shaky, at least we are able to walk and talk, read the headlines…and act like a normal person. And what gives? Angel or devil…living or dead? Here, we attempt to make sense of a pandemonium of conflicting data.

Last week, The New York Times was on the story: "Wages climbed 5.1 percent, a still-rapid pace as Fed awaits slowdown. Average hourly earnings picked up by 5.1 percent in the year through June, moderating slightly from 5.3 percent in the year through May. Economists in a Bloomberg survey had expected a slightly bigger cool-down, to 5 percent."

This news item could be easily filed under “Economy Improving” or “Why the Fed Won’t Pause.” But wait. Here’s Charles Bilello with the other side of the story: "November was the 20th consecutive month in which the rate of inflation outpaced the growth of hourly wages, a decline in the prosperity for the American worker."

See? Wages up at a “rapid” pace. And workers get poorer. It’s like that with almost every detail. Each fact needs to be turned over, like a warped board. On the other underside are the worms and bugs. The unemployment rate is near a record low. But the number of people actually working…along with the number of hours they put in…have never recovered from the Covid Hysteria.

Savings Plummet: House prices have been going down for 3 months. But rising interest rates make them more expensive. For the median family, prices have risen so much that buying a median house would take nearly half its income. The Fed is still raising rates. But it still lends at 370 basis points below the CPI. And the money supply, meanwhile, goes down – the 1.5% drop is the biggest ever recorded in a 7-month period. October’s personal savings rate was one for the record books too – 2.3% was the second lowest level ever recorded. Consumers were spending; but they are running out of money. And if a recession is coming, it will hit them hard.

With such a confusing mix of facts before them, people could form any opinion they wanted. Investors chose to look on the bright side. The economy is basically healthy,’ they said to one another. ‘The Fed’s higher rates don’t hurt it. So, let’s get back in the stock market.’ The rally, so far, has brought a 17% gain off the October lows. There have been four previous rallies. Each one ended in new lows. Will this be the same? We don’t know. But tomorrow, let’s look at the contradictions and ambiguities from a different perspective. In preview, we will see why today’s data is supposed to be confusing."

- https://bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com/

"History..."

"History is indeed little more than the register of the crimes, 

follies and misfortunes of mankind."

- Edward Gibbon