Tuesday, November 1, 2022

"Strange Prices At Meijer! This Is Getting Ridiculous!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 11/1/22:
"Strange Prices At Meijer! This Is Getting Ridiculous!"
"In today's vlog we are at Meijer, and are noticing some strange price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:
For comparison:
Full screen recommended.
Travelling with Russell , 11/1/22:
"Russian Brand New Supermarket During Sanctions (Opening Day)"
What does a brand new Supermarket look like after sanctions were imposed on Russia? Take a look with me at a Russian brand new Supermarket in Moscow, Russia. How does it look? What items will we find, how have sanctions affected the Russian food markets in 2022?"
(A ruble is worth 0.016 United States dollars.)
Comments here:

Monday, October 31, 2022

Canadian Prepper, "Entire US Air Force Goes Dark, What's Going On?"

Canadian Prepper, 10/31/22:
"Entire US Air Force Goes Dark, What's Going On?"
"We are dangerously close to midnight."
Comments here:

"Could Be Worse..."

Dig your way out, they said...

"Housing Crash Begins And It's Worse Than You Think"

Full screen recommended.
"Housing Crash Begins And It's Worse Than You Think"
by Epic Economist

"Now it’s official: The U.S. housing bubble has finally burst, and home prices are in free-fall with no floor in sight. After two years of stratospheric price appreciation, a major shift has begun, and at this point, homeowners are already seeing property values collapse at the fastest pace since the Great Recession. This downturn is escalating much faster than experts anticipated as mortgage rates surpass the 7% mark, and home sales continue to plunge all across the country. Given that the vast majority of markets are overvalued by 50% or more, we’re about to witness the worst housing crash of our lifetime, and the consequences are going to be brutal for the U.S. economy.

Last week, the National Association of Home Builders reported that slumped home construction subtracted 1.37 percentage points from U.S. GDP in the third quarter, which represented the biggest housing contraction since 2007. At the same time, mortgage purchase applications plunged by 41.8% on a year-over-year basis, and total mortgage applications are now lower than at any point during the Great Recession.

Home sales are also cratering. In September, they declined for the eighth month in a row. In the West, sales have dropped the most dramatically, sinking 31.3% since last year. Meanwhile, pending home sales, declined by a staggering 35% nationwide this month, the biggest drop in at least seven years. All of that is thanks to the highest mortgage rates since 2002. This month, they hit a new high of 7.16%, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. That suggests housing will continue to become less affordable, even if prices keep going down.

On the flip side, they're still up 4.8% in the past six months, 13.1% over the past year, and 42.2% since the beginning of the health crisis. And the market’s biggest irony right now is the fact that even as the price of housing is steadily falling, the cost of housing is still climbing to new highs.

Axios analysts estimate that if someone bought a median-priced home in September rather than June they would have paid 5.1% less for their house (approximately $427,000 rather than $450,000), “but, assuming a 20% downpayment and a 30-year mortgage, that person would face monthly mortgage payments almost 10% higher, at $2,260 per month,” they explained.

The firm noted that the monthly principal and interest mortgage payment on the median-priced home is up $930 from a year ago, a painful 73% increase. A Wall Street economist recently estimated that a 20% drop would occur in the very first stage of this new bubble collapse that will extend through the end of 2022, and from that point on, they would continue to free fall as ”tumbling demand for homes amid sharply rising mortgage rates add immense pressure on home prices,” says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics.

This is neither a sellers’ nor a buyers’ market, it’s an environment where everyone loses, argues financial analyst Bill Holter, alerting that we could soon see a crash that will make previous crashes “blush”. Many people are going to lose everything overnight. All indicators show that this is just the beginning of a nightmarish crisis, and this new crash is going to be way more devastating than what we experienced back in 2008. Very rough weather is headed our way, and everyone is starting to feel that things are about to get really ugly."

"The Party Is Over And You Are Not Prepared"

Full screen recommended.
Jeremiah Babe, 10/31/22:
"The Party Is Over And You Are Not Prepared"
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: Deuter, "Music of the Night: East of The Full Moon"

Deuter, "Music of the Night: East of The Full Moon"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“These three bright nebulae are often featured in telescopic tours of the constellation Sagittarius and the crowded starfields of the central Milky Way. In fact, 18th century cosmic tourist Charles Messier cataloged two of them; M8, the large nebula left of center, and colorful M20 on the right. The third, NGC 6559, is above M8, separated from the larger nebula by a dark dust lane. All three are stellar nurseries about five thousand light-years or so distant. 
The expansive M8, over a hundred light-years across, is also known as the Lagoon Nebula. M20's popular moniker is the Trifid. Glowing hydrogen gas creates the dominant red color of the emission nebulae, with contrasting blue hues, most striking in the Trifid, due to dust reflected starlight. The colorful skyscape recorded with telescope and digital camera also includes one of Messier's open star clusters, M21, just above the Trifid.”
- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

"When I heard the learn’d astronomer,
When the proofs, the figures, were ranged
in columns before me,
When I was shown the charts and diagrams,
to add, divide, and measure them,
When I sitting heard the astronomer where
he lectured with much applause in the lecture-room,
How soon unaccountable I became tired and sick,
Till rising and gliding out I wander’d off by myself,
In the mystical moist night-air, and from time to time,
Look’d up in perfect silence at the stars."
- Walt Whitman

"Be The Person..."

"We are fast moving into something, we are fast flung into something like asteroids cast into space by the death of a planet, we the people of earth are cast into space like burning asteroids and if we wish not to disintegrate into nothingness we must begin to now hold onto only the things that matter while letting go of all that doesn't. For when all of our dust and ice deteriorates into the cosmos we will be left only with ourselves and nothing else. So if you want to be there in the end, today is the day to start holding onto your children, holding onto your loved ones; onto those who share your soul. Harbor and anchor into your heart justice, truth, courage, bravery, belief, a firm vision, a steadfast and sound mind. Be the person of meaningful and valuable thoughts. Don't look to the left, don't look to the right; we simply don't have the time. Never be afraid of fear."
- C. JoyBell C.

Chet Raymo, "Lessons"

"Lessons"
by Chet Raymo

"There is a four-line poem by Yeats, called "Gratitude to the Unknown Instructors":

"What they undertook to do
They brought to pass;
All things hang like a drop of dew
Upon a blade of grass."

Like so many of the short poems of Yeats, it is hard to know what the poet had in mind, who exactly were the unknown instructors, and if unknown how could they instruct. But as I opened my volume of The Poems this morning, at random, as in the old days people opened the Bible and pointed a finger at a random passage seeking advice or instruction, this is the poem that presented itself. Unsuperstitious person that I am, it seemed somehow apropos, since outside the window, in a thick Irish mist, every blade of grass has its hanging drop.

Those pendant drops, the bejeweled porches of the spider webs, the rose petals cupping their glistening dew - all of that seems terribly important here, now, in the silent mist. There is not much good to say about getting old, but certainly one advantage of the gathering years is the falling away of ego and ambition, the felt need to be always busy, the exhausting practice of accumulation. Who were the instructors who tried to teach me the practice of simplicity when I was young - the poets and the saints, the buddhas who were content to sit beneath the bo tree while the rest of us scurried here and there? I scurried, and I'm not sorry I did, but I must have tucked their lessons into the back of my mind, a cache of wisdom to be opened at my leisure.

Whatever it was they sought to teach has come to pass. All things hang like a drop of dew upon a blade of grass."

"for The Most Part..."

"Human beings never think for themselves, they find it too uncomfortable. For the most part, members of our species simply repeat what they are told- and become upset if they are exposed to any different view. The characteristic human trait is not awareness but conformity, and the characteristic result is religious warfare. Other animals fight for territory or food; but, uniquely in the animal kingdom, human beings fight for their 'beliefs.' The reason is that beliefs guide behavior, which has evolutionary importance among human beings. But at a time when our behavior may well lead us to extinction, I see no reason to assume we have any awareness at all. We are stubborn, self-destructive conformists. Any other view of our species is just a self-congratulatory delusion."
- Michael Crichton, "The Lost World"

"Rickards’ Updated Election Forecast"

"Rickards’ Updated Election Forecast"
by Jim Rickards

"Democracy is the theory that the common people know 
what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
- H.L. Mencken

"After months of analysis, headlines, debates, commercials, polls and more we’re finally on the brink of Election Day. On Nov. 8, just a few days from now, Americans will vote for senators, governors, House members and other offices from coast to coast. These contests will determine which governing philosophy controls the country for the next two years. It will also lay the foundation for the presidential election in 2024 (that campaign starts the day after the midterm election). Everything that citizens, investors and markets care about is on the line.

Put on your crash helmets. This is going to be a wild election ride. Where do things stand just over a week away from the elections? Let’s break it down…

If the economy is good, stocks are going up and the U.S. is not involved in any wars, then voters will just reelect incumbents or vote for their party’s nominees without paying much attention to the issues. The voters are content, and the politicians are free to implement the wish lists of the special interests. This is not one of those times…

Rarely Have Issues Mattered More:
• The economy is not good. We had a mild recession in the first half of 2022 and are headed for a much worse recession in late 2022 and 2023…
• Stocks are down 20–35% since late last year depending on the index used…
• The U.S. is indirectly involved in a major war in Ukraine, which has the potential to escalate into a new world war including the use of tactical nuclear weapons…
• Inflation is up, crime is up, reading and math scores are down and it seems the main role of teachers is to indoctrinate children in transsexualism and drag shows.

In all, there has seldom been an election since the 1930s (and before that, the 1860s) when issues mattered more. The Republicans get this, although they are often too afraid of being called names to say so. Democrats don’t get it. They’re still talking about climate alarmism, abortion and bail reform when it’s clear either that voters don’t care or rank those issues far down their lists of issues that will dictate how they vote. When it comes to issues, Democrats are clearly missing the boat.

Biden’s a Real Drag: Meanwhile, research shows that presidential popularity is one of the biggest determinants of a wide range of outcomes in midterm elections. If the president is popular, his party can hold its own and limit losses. If the president is unpopular, his party will not only lose control of the House and maybe the Senate but could get caught in a so-called wave election that gives the opposing party control with comfortable majorities.

The best measure of presidential approval is the Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. This poll uses a sample size of 1,500 likely voters, which is a solid representative sample. The margin of error is +/- 3%, which is reasonably tight for a poll of this type. As of today, this poll showed the percentage of voters who strongly disapprove of Biden’s performance is 44%, and the percentage who strongly approve is 22%. This gives Biden an overall approval rating of negative 22% (0.22 – 0.44 = -0.22), one of the worst approval ratings ever recorded.

I consider Rasmussen to be a reliable poll, but I also look at Trafalgar, which has an excellent track record. Trafalgar shows Biden’s “strongly approve/strongly disapprove” gap at almost negative 39%! This poll supports the Rasmussen result and suggests that Biden is in an even deeper hole than most analysts realize.

A midterm election for a first-term president almost always results in losses in Congress for the president’s party. With Biden’s approval rating at negative 22%, there’s every reason to expect a red wave in this election. In fact, it may look more like a red tsunami.

My Forecast for the House: In the House races, my final forecast is that Republicans will win 245 seats while Democrats take 190 seats. Republican leader Kevin McCarthy will be elected as speaker of the House in January. The House currently consists of 220 Democrats and 212 Republicans with three vacancies. My forecast means a pickup of 33 seats for the Republicans and a loss of 30 seats for the Democrats. That result is consistent with midterm election swings in the first presidential terms for presidents of both parties.

The Cook Political Report projects 211 seats that are solidly or leaning Republican, 192 seats that are solidly or leaning Democratic and 32 seats that are too close to call. If those 32 close races were divided 50/50 between Republicans and Democrats, the final result would be 227 Republicans and 208 Democrats. That’s still a healthy working majority for Republicans, but it’s a far closer result than my forecast. But I expect a number of districts that Cook is calling for Democrats to go for Republicans.

Politico shows 211 seats solid or leaning Republican and 196 seats solid or leaning Democrat, with 28 toss-ups. If the toss-ups were divided 50/50 the result would be 225 Republicans and 210 Democrats, almost identical to Cook. This should not be surprising because Politico has the same D.C.-based bias as Cook.

RealClearPolitics, which is far more reliable than Cook or Politico, has a forecast of 225 Republicans and 175 Democrats with 35 toss-up races. If those toss-ups were divided 50/50 (with the rounding given to the Democrats), the final House would be 242 Republicans and 193 Democrats. That’s within a few seats of my forecast and lends support to my methodology. If just a few more than half the toss-ups go Republican, then my forecast is right on the money based on the RealClearPolitics models.

To sum it all up, the Republicans are almost certain to take the House of Representatives. The majority will be substantial by any measure.

The Senate: The Senate is currently divided 50-50. The Democrats have control because Vice President Kamala Harris has a tiebreaking vote. There are 35 Senate seats up for election in this cycle. Democrats control 14 and Republicans control 21. My final forecast for the Senate is that Republicans will have 53 seats in the new Senate and the Democrats will have 47 seats. (That count includes two non-Democratic senators who both caucus with the Democrats. Neither is up for election in this cycle).

I project that Republicans will win in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats will win in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Washington. If this forecast is correct, then Republicans will hold their seats in North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and will flip seats in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.

The Democrats will hold their seats in Colorado, New Hampshire and Washington and will lose seats in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. The Democrats will not flip any current Republican seats. This outcome leaves the Republicans with 53 seats, and the Democrats with 47 seats. Incidentally, my forecast is identical to RealClearPolitics, which projects a Senate of 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats with the same states in each column. Any wins by Democrats not in my forecast are likely to be offset by unexpected wins by Republicans leaving the outcome at 53-47 in favor of Republicans.

Expect the Unexpected: But it wouldn’t be a 21st-century American election without some shocks and surprises. Here are a few to watch out for:

Pennsylvania has active litigation on whether mail-in ballots should be counted if they lack a signature on the envelope as required by state law. In a close race, this issue will come to the fore. It could drag out the declaration of a winner by weeks or months with acrimony from both sides…

Georgia requires a winner to have more than 50% of the vote. If neither Warnock nor Walker reaches the 50% level (due to third-party candidates and write-ins), then there will be a runoff election between the two leaders on Dec. 6, 2022. That will also delay the final declaration of a winner. If, after Election Day, control of the Senate itself is uncertain because it hangs on those undecided races (such as Pennsylvania and Georgia), you can expect a strong negative reaction from markets.

The stock market can deal with Republicans or Democrats. It cannot deal with uncertainty. All I can say is don’t be surprised if all this drags on for a while. Expect the unexpected!"
"The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself, without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, and intolerable."
- H.L. Mencken

The Daily "Near You?"

Union, Kentucky, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

The Poet: Rolf Jacobsen, "When They Sleep"

"When They Sleep"

"All people are children when they sleep.
There's no war in them then.
They open their hands and breathe
in that quiet rhythm heaven has given them.
They pucker their lips like small children
and open their hands halfway,
soldiers and statesmen, servants and masters.
The stars stand guard
and a haze veils the sky,
a few hours when no one will do anybody harm.
If only we could speak to one another then
when our hearts are half-open flowers.
Words like golden bees
would drift in.
God, teach me the language of sleep."

- Rolf Jacobsen,
"The Roads Have Come to an End Now"

Must View! Canadian Prepper, "Shocking Info About Coming Nuclear Incident"

full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 10/31/22:
"Shocking Info About Coming Nuclear Incident"
"Some new developments signal 
imminent fallout of Russian/US relations."
Comments here:
Full screen recommended.
Colonel Douglas Macgregor, 10/30/22:
"The Situation in Ukraine is Ugly"
Comments here:
The terrifying, relentless march to Doomsday continues...
We can at least try to understand how and why...

"Any Moment..."

Seals and Crofts, 
"We May Never Pass This Way Again"
Kansas, "Dust in the Wind"

Noli Timere...

"How It Really Would Be"

 

And we're doing a fine job of it...

"Inflation As A Prelude To War"

Gonzalo Lira, 10/31/22:
"Inflation As A Prelude To War"
Comments here:
Related:
"NATO Set To Attack Tiraspol?"
By David Sant

Excerpt: "Gonzalo Lira recently posted two soliloquies which were both accusatory and predictive about NATO’s apparent motivations and likely near-term kinetic military objectives. He concluded that after detonating a “dirty bomb” on Ukrainian territory, the USA and NATO would use the opportunity as an excuse to move the 101st Airborne Division from Romania into Odessa. While I think his big picture thinking is generally correct, I disagree with Mr. Lira on the mission of the 101st Airborne Division in the scenario he described.

Many years ago I was an officer in the National Guard sister Brigade to the 101st. Both Brigades are “air assault light infantry,” which was developed in the Vietnam War with the 7th Air Cavalry Division. “We Were Soldiers Once and Young,” tells that story.

Though the 101st is called “airborne” in reference to its World War II days, today its soldiers are not trained to jump out of airplanes; the 82nd Airborne Division does that. The 101st deploys using UH-60 Blackhawk helicopters. Each division in the brigade has an aviation battalion with three companies of Blackhawk helicopters. Their primary combat mission is to secure a bridgehead.

When deploying, an air assault infantry battalion goes to a designated pickup zone, and a company of Blackhawks comes in to ferry them to the landing zone. Although they are trained to rappel out of the helicopters in a hot Landing Zone, in practice the helicopters usually land, and the troops jump out. It is much faster and safer. Two minutes later the chopper is back in the air and goes back for another squad at the pickup zone. Thus it might take the better part of an hour with two or three round trips to move an entire infantry battalion from the PZ to the LZ, longer if the distance is longer.

While an air assault infantry brigade can move 105 mm light artillery pieces via helicopter, the main supply and logistics assets of the brigade must follow the main force on the ground in trucks. Therefore, unlike the 82nd Airborne Division, or the Rangers, both of which are designed to jump into areas far behind enemy lines, an air assault brigade like the 101st is limited in how far it can leapfrog ahead of its support assets."
Full, excellent and highly recommended article here:
"The War in Ukraine: Made in Washington Not Moscow"
By Mike Whitney

Excerpt: “Your people do not yet feel an impending sense of danger. That worries me. Can’t you see the world is being pulled in an irreversible direction? Meanwhile, people pretend that nothing is going on. I don’t know how to get through to you anymore.” - Russian President Vladimir Putin, You Tube, 12 minute video:
“The Russians have put their nuclear weapons on high-alert.This is a really significant development.. They are….sending us a very powerful signal as to how seriously they take this crisis. So, if we start winning, and the Russians start losing, you need to understand that what we’re talking about doing here, is backing a nuclear-armed great power - that sees what’s happening as an existential threat - into a corner. This is really dangerous."
Full article here:

"It's Going To Be A November To Remember"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 10/31/22:
"It's Going To Be A November To Remember"
"This is going to be a November to remember. There are four huge events that are happening within seven trading days of each other to start the month. It starts with the Fed meeting and will finish up with the CPI report just seven trading days later."
Comments here:

“Streets Of Philadelphia: Kensington Daily”, 10/31/22:

Full screen recommended.
“Streets Of Philadelphia: Kensington Daily”, 10/31/22:
"Violent crime and drug abuse in Philadelphia as a whole is a major problem. The city’s violent crime rate is higher than the national average and other similarly sized metropolitan areas. Also alarming is Philadelphia’s drug overdose rate. The number of drug overdose deaths in the city increased by 50% from 2013 to 2015, with more than twice as many deaths from drug overdoses as deaths from homicides in 2015. A big part of Philadelphia’s problems stem from the crime rate and drug abuse in Kensington.

Because of the high number of drugs in Kensington, the neighborhood has a drug crime rate of 3.57, the third-highest rate by neighborhood in Philadelphia. Like a lot of the country, a big part of this issue is a result of the opioid epidemic. Opioid abuse has skyrocketed over the last two decades in the United States and Philadelphia is no exception. Along with having a high rate of drug overdose deaths, 80% percent of Philadelphia’s overdose deaths involved opioids and Kensington is a big contributor to this number. This Philly neighborhood is purportedly the largest open-air narcotics market for heroin on the East Coast with many neighboring residents flocking to the area for heroin and other opioids. With such a high number of drugs in Kensington, many state and local officials have zoned in on this area to try and tackle Philadelphia’s problem."
Comments here:
Full screen recommended.
Bruce Springsteen, "Streets of Philadelphia"

There but for the grace of God goes you, and all of us...
 Enjoy it while it lasts. It won't...

Jim Kunstler, "Cockamamie Story"

"Cockamamie Story"
by Jim Kunstler

"It’s been several days since San Francisco police interrupted a hammer fight between Paul Pelosi - husband of House Speaker Nancy - and his “friend… David,” in the Pelosis’ Pacific Heights home, and apparently the cops have not asked David DePape why he was there in the first place. Odd, a little bit. Is it possible that a whole chain of authorities from the SFPD clear up into the top of the US government and its Democratic Party sidekicks don’t want you to know what actually happened?

So far, not much in this cockamamie story adds up. Quite a bit is known now about the attacker, David DePape. He was a colorful character on the scene in radical Berkeley across the bay, a “nudist activist” and BLM supporter. He’d lived there and had a child with one Oxane “Gypsy” Taub, a fellow nude activist and whack-job, who has spent time in prison for child abduction. That partnership ended seven years ago and DePape has been homeless on and off since then. Acquaintances and Berkeley neighbors describe him as not mentally healthy, saying he exhibits psychotic delusions and is sometimes incoherent.

So far, police have not disclosed how DePape journeyed from Berkeley to Pacific Heights at 2:00 o’clock in the morning, about fourteen miles. Did he walk from Berkeley across the Bay Bridge and then halfway across town? Mr. DePape is apparently also known to the police as a gay hustler, that is, a person who sells sex for money. Unless I’m mistaken, the San Francisco Police Department (SFPD) has a detective department - experienced men and women who go around the city seeking clues, evidence, and testimony in order to make sense of perplexing crimes - and then solve them! Shall we assume they are on-the-job?

Now, Paul Pelosi, 82, who made a $300-million fortune running a car service (also shrewd investments in real estate and the stock market), has been in quite a bit of trouble this year. On May 28, 2022, he was arrested for Driving Under the Influence (DUI) in Napa (near a vineyard estate he owns with Nancy) when his 2021 Porsche crashed into a 2014 Jeep driven by one “John Doe” (as the police identified him). KGO-TV, ABC’s affiliate in the San Francisco area, said that there was a second person in the Porsche with Pelosi at the time of the accident. He has never been identified.

In August, Mr. Pelosi was sentenced to five days in jail, a fine of roughly $7,000, a three-month drinking-and-driving course, eight hours of public service, and having an “interlock” device installed on his car that would require him to blow into an alcohol sensor before the engine can ignite. By any chance, were the Napa Police or the County Court contacted in the matter at some point by the US Capitol Police or the FBI? We may never know.

If David DePape didn’t walk fourteen miles from Berkeley to Pacific Heights, or take a cab (expensive), how did he get there? Here’s a theory: he rode the BART subway from Berkeley to the Church Street and Mission station in the city, a five-minute walk to the Castro Valley, San Francisco’s fabled gay district. Sometime before 2:00 a.m. closing time, he met up in a bar there with Paul Pelosi, who drove DePape to the Pelosi house in a car not equipped with an interlock device. That is to say, David DePape was let into the house by Mr. Pelosi.

The police and the news media have theorized that DePape broke into the place by smashing a glass door in back. Uh-huh…. Ask yourself: would there not be an alarm system at least on all the ground floor windows and doors in the house? Would there not be security cameras on the back side of the house - the side that burglars might prefer, if they could get over the wall? Would the Speaker of the House, with a discretionary budget on top of a $300-million fortune, and in a time of epic political rancor, not have a team of security guards in place at her private home?

Initial news media chatter had both DePape and Paul Pelosi dressed in their underwear, struggling over a hammer which turned out to belong to Mr. Pelosi. Not until the police entered the house did DePape wrest the hammer from Mr. Pelosi and commence to brain him with it. What does the arrest report actually say about the two men’s state-of-dress? It is not public information. How and why were the police just watching until DePape assaulted Mr. Pelosi - who was hospitalized afterward and had surgery on his cracked skull? (Uh, how did a blow that literally broke his skull not kill the elderly Mr. Pelosi?)

The news media initially suggested that somebody - a third person on the scene - opened the door to let the police in. Now they are saying no such person was there. Was the front door unlocked? (Weird, considering the general threat level for a public figure of Nancy P’s stature.) Or, did police break the glass door in the rear of the house to get in? (However, photos of the door show the glass being broken from the inside and shards spread over the outside.) Odd, also, that such a wealthy and powerful couple would not have hard-to-smash security glass on such a door. (It’s easy to buy.) Odd, too, that there was not one human security guard on the premises. The house had security cameras all over the exterior and interior. No mention in the news media or from the SFPD of what might have been recorded by these cameras at the time of the incident.

My assessment of this bizarre episode as follows: Paul Pelosi was out drinking late the night of the incident. He hooked up with David DePape, a hustler he might have been previously acquainted with, and took him back to the house in Pacific Heights. Something went wrong with the transaction. Considering that DePape exhibited psychotic behavior at times, it might have taken little to set him off. All the authorities involved are playing it coy, but failing to construct a narrative that adds up.

The Democratic Party has attempted to convert the sordid incident into a political talking point, painting DePape as a MAGA crazy. That spin apparently failed almost instantly. Their next effort will be to shove the story down the memory hole - the news media will just not report on any developments. Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi put out a statement that her family is “heartbroken” over the incident. Yes, of course. I’m sure. Nobody knew about Paul Pelosi’s peccadillos. Boo-hoo. Cry me a river, you degenerate jade. Don’t suppose the truth about this will be successfully suppressed, like Hunter B;’s laptop. And so, the career of Nancy Pelosi comes to an ignominious end in the November 8 election, with a cherry-on-top of personal humiliation. She deserves every bit of it."

"Shopping At Ollie's Bargain Outlet! Empty Shelves Everywhere! Not Good!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 10/31/22:
"Shopping At Ollie's Bargain Outlet! 
Empty Shelves Everywhere! Not Good!"
"In today's vlog we are at Ollie's Bargain Outlet, and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:
Related:

Gregory Mannarino, "Is 'All Hell' About To Break Loose? MMRI Hits 280 Again!"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/31/22:
"Is 'All Hell' About To Break Loose? MMRI Hits 280 Again!"
Comments here:

Link To The MMRI (Mannarino Market Risk Indicator)

Sunday, October 30, 2022

"Walmart Warning Sign, Shoppers Disappear, Inventory Piled To The Ceiling; Retailers In Big Trouble"

Full screen recommended.
Jeremiah Babe, 10/30/22:
"Walmart Warning Sign, Shoppers Disappear, 
Inventory Piled To The Ceiling; Retailers In Big Trouble"
Comments here:

"In A Very Real Sense..."

 

MUST VIEW! "Buy Lots Of Food And Stock Up Now Because This Is Going To Be A Really Dark Winter"

Full screen recommended.
"Buy Lots Of Food And Stock Up Now 
Because This Is Going To Be A Really Dark Winter"
by Epic Economist

"Very difficult times are approaching, and it is urgent to start buying food and storing it somewhere safe while we still can. For the majority of Americans, the window of opportunity to buy essential supplies to get ready for the economic downturn that is emerging all around us is rapidly closing. That’s because the price of food is rising nearly three times faster than wages, and from now on, this trend will only continue to intensify. People won’t be able to get prepared for the challenging times that are coming because they simply won’t be able to afford the soaring costs of food anymore. In the next few months, the rate of unemployment is expected to jump as more and more businesses, - suffering from declining sales, shrinking profit margins, and slower consumer demand, - will start laying-off thousands of employees in a desperate attempt to stay afloat. Without jobs, with rising levels of debt and facing a raging cost of living crisis, millions of U.S. households won’t have enough to eat, and by then, it will be too late to try to stockpile the supplies they need.

Our jobs are not as reliable as we think they are. There is no doubt that a wave of layoffs is coming, harder economic conditions are ahead for our workers - and even if you’re your own boss, you won’t be safe. While wages only rose 5%, food prices are rising almost three times as fast, increasing 13% in September. Even with jobs, we’re already facing mounting difficulties to pay for our groceries. Without them, it’s safe to say the situation would a whole lot worse.

Right now, America’s food supply chain is in shambles. Despite record food prices, our farmers are struggling like never before. In fact, the latest data released by the American Farm Bureau Federation shows that we might lose 75% of this winter’s wheat harvest, 71% of soybeans, and 70% of corn. On top of that, our supply of chickens, turkeys, and eggs has been depleted by the ongoing bird flu that is likely to intensify as temperatures cool down.

Food shortages are a reality, not a theory, and people need to start preparing while they still can. Industry executives are explicitly telling us that food prices will not come down any time soon, and the convergence of all of these factors is creating a “perfect storm” for food inflation both in the short and long term. So if you still have a job, use this precious opportunity to stockpile food before the economy breaks down hard.

When things go south, the empty shelves we’re seeing now will become even emptier. People will be desperate and chaos will erupt in our major cities. Panic buyers will rush to hoard everything they can find in front of them. On the other hand, jobless Americans won’t be able to buy what they need, and many will resort to shoplifting and stealing. So make sure you store your supplies in a safe place because the truth is that you never know what crazy things people can do when they go hungry and see their children starving. We must handle things on our own, so we must start getting prepared and stocking up on food now. In a couple of months, food prices will double or triple, and you may not be able to start stockpiling then."
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And here's why it all goes to Hell...

Canadian Prepper, "Russia is About to Declare War on Britain! USA Fast Tracks Nuclear Delivery!"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 10/30/22:
"Russia is About to Declare War on Britain! 
USA Fast Tracks Nuclear Delivery!"
"I don't know how Britain and Russia don't go to war after this, USA is fast tracking upgraded nuclear weapons system to Europe. All hell could break loose at any time."
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"Only a Few Days Left of Diesel Fuel"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 10/30/22:
"Only a Few Days Left of Diesel Fuel"
"There are only a few days left of diesel fuel. They are already starting to ration diesel fuel in the northeast and now the south. Everything is delivered via trucks and trains that used diesel fuel. This will be catastrophic."
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Tucker Carlson, 10/27/22:

"The US Is About To Run Out Of Diesel Fuel In 25 Days"
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Musical Interlude: Logos, "Cheminement"

Full screen recommended.
Logos, "Cheminement"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"These are galaxies of the Hercules Cluster, an archipelago of island universes a mere 500 million light-years away. Also known as Abell 2151, this cluster is loaded with gas and dust rich, star-forming spiral galaxies but has relatively few elliptical galaxies, which lack gas and dust and the associated newborn stars. The colors in this remarkably deep composite image clearly show the star forming galaxies with a blue tint and galaxies with older stellar populations with a yellowish cast.
The sharp picture spans about 3/4 degree across the cluster center, corresponding to over 6 million light-years at the cluster's estimated distance. Diffraction spikes around brighter foreground stars in our own Milky Way galaxy are produced by the imaging telescope's mirror support vanes. In the cosmic vista many galaxies seem to be colliding or merging while others seem distorted - clear evidence that cluster galaxies commonly interact. In fact, the Hercules Cluster itself may be seen as the result of ongoing mergers of smaller galaxy clusters and is thought to be similar to young galaxy clusters in the much more distant, early Universe.”

Free Download: Albert Camus, “The Plague”

“Everyone knows that plagues have a way of recurring throughout history, yet somehow we find it hard to believe in the ones that crash down on us out of the sky. There have always been plagues and wars, yet they always take us by surprise. When war breaks out people say it’s stupid and won’t last long. Stupidity has a knack of getting in the way, which we would see if not wrapped up in ourselves. In this our townsfolk were like everybody else – they did not believe in plagues.”
- Albert Camus, “The Plague”

Freely download “The Plague”, by Albert Camus, here:

"The Day After Tomorrow"

"The Day After Tomorrow"
by The Zman

"The general consensus regarding the future of the American Empire is that it is headed for demise like all empires. The rapidly declining quality of the ruling elite in general and the political class in particular is the biggest sign. Then there is the changing demographics, which will reach a point where the human capital of the empire can no longer support empire. Then there is the life cycle of all empires. This one, while short lived, seems to be in the late phase of that cycle.

Most people focus on the question of when the empire will collapse, as that provides the most thrilling scenarios. The truth is though, empires collapse in slow motion, rather than in a bang. It is like a fall down a long flight of stairs, in which the empire hits some long landings where it seems to right itself for a period. Then it is another tumble down the stairs until it hits another landing. It is only in the fullness of time that the decline and fall of the empire looks like the familiar arc.

A different question worth pondering is what will the decline and fall look like for the average person living in the empire? For the people living in the provinces, it will look like the past, in that Europe and Asia will simply gain their independence. France may become a vassal of Germany or Russia, but that is just the same condition with a different management team at the top. Europe will get poorer and more violent, but that will mostly be due to massive migration from Africa.

In North America, we have some hints as to what post-empire America will look like for the typical person. This post on American Greatness goes into the third world nature of large swaths of current year America. California now looks more like Sinaloa Mexico than the old America of the young empire. There are nice modern parts for sure, but there are backward primitive parts, as well. Just like the Roman Empire, it is the infrastructure that is the leading edge of decline.

Empires that can no longer maintain their borders tend to attract large peasant classes, because long after the empire’s peak, it remains a better place to be poor than outside the empire. America lost control of its borders a generation ago, so something like fifty million people have relocated to America. There may be that many more operating inside the country illegally. The fact that no one knows or cares about the illegal population is one of those signs of collapse.

Another vision for post-empire America, is post-empire Spain. One of the interesting aspects of that period is how power devolved to local power centers. The Visigothic Kingdom ruled over what is now Spain. They were central Europeans who had moved west from the Danube Valley, first under the protection of the Western Roman Empire, but then by conquest after the fall of Rome. The kingdom maintained independence for about three centuries.

The thing is though, the kingdom was a polite fiction in many ways as the Gothic rulers had limited control of their territory. They were dependent on those local power centers that evolved in the late Roman empire. The emerging Catholic Church was one power center, but so were local ruling elites located in cities like Seville and Toledo. This is the root of antisemitism, by the way. Jews were powerful players in Gothic politics, a rival to the Church for influence over the secular authorities.

That’s probably the future of North America. The federal government will carry on long after it can exert control over the whole of the country. We see that today with the inability of the political class to do the obvious with the tech oligarchs. Today, global enterprise, finance and technology are outside the scope of government authority and often the whip hand in the relationship. We’re seeing states and cities in open revolt now, refusing to abide by federal laws.

One question no one in power thinks about is whether or not these new oligarchs can survive without the national government. The oligarchs that emerged from the Soviet empire were rooted in practical things like oil and gas. American oligarchs have power over abstract concepts that exist only because the state protects them. Both finance and technology are able to siphon off the wealth of the middle-class, because the middle-class supports the state, which protects this racket.

Put another way, Bolshevism made the Soviet empire artificially poorer, as it compelled inefficiency in the economy. It also proved to be a costly form of rule. Collapse freed the economy of the empire, allowing the new oligarchs to emerge. Liberal democracy makes the empire artificially richer, as it relies upon financial legerdemain to pull forward the proceeds of labor and capital. The cost of rule is subsidized by the social capital it consumes to perpetuate itself.

Is it possible for local power centers to emerge in North America, when the regions no longer have an identity of their own? Is it possible for local rule, when the local elites are just as inept and corrupt as the national elites? It is hard to imagine California lasting very long as an independent state. Its ruling class is clownish and stupid, a collection of petulant children. How hard would it be for the drug cartels to push them aside and turn the state into another narco-state?

The Soviet system rewarded cleverness and intrigue but it was founded on force, so there was always a role for those willing to act. The American system rewards guile, but increasingly has no role for assertiveness and force. It is why America has become so bad at waging war. It is possible that we now lack the required lions to push aside the foxes, even when the foxes die. It means a long period of chaos in which a new generation of lions can emerge to seize control."

"The 'Titanic' Analogy You Haven't Heard: Passively Accepting Oblivion"

"The 'Titanic' Analogy You Haven't Heard: 
Passively Accepting Oblivion"
by Charles Hugh Smith

"You've undoubtedly heard rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic as an analogy for the futility of approving policy tweaks to address systemic crises. I've used the Titanic as an anology to explain the fragility of our financial system and the "glancing blow" of the pandemic:


But there's a powerful analogy you haven't heard before. To understand the analogy, we first need to recap the tragedy's basic set-up.

On April 14, 1912, the liner Titanic, considered unsinkable due to its watertight compartments, struck a glancing blow against a massive iceberg on that moonless, weirdly calm night. In the early hours of April 15, the great ship broke in half and sank, ending the lives of the majority of its passengers and crew. Of the 2,208 passengers and crew onboard, 1,503 perished and 705 survived. The lifeboats had a maximum capacity of 1,178, so some 475 people died unnecessarily. Passengers of the Titanic (Wikipedia)

The initial complacency of the passengers and crew after the collision is another source of analogies relating to humanity's near-infinite capacity for denial. The class structure of the era was enforced by the authorities - the ship's officers. As the situation grew visibly threatening, the First Class passengers were herded into the remaining lifeboats while the steerage/Third Class passengers - many of them immigrants - were mostly kept below decks. Officers were instructed to enforce this class hierarchy with their revolvers.

Two-thirds of all passengers died, but the losses were not evenly distributed: 39% of First Class passengers perished, 58% of Second Class passengers lost their lives and 76% of Third Class passengers did not survive.

Rudimentary calculations by the ship's designer, who was on board to oversee the maiden voyage, revealed the truth to the officers: the ship would sink and there was no way to stop it. The ship was designed to survive four watertight compartments being compromised, and could likely stay afloat if five were opened to the sea, but not if six compartments were flooded. Water would inevitably spill over into adjacent compartments in a domino-like fashion until the ship sank.

What did the authorities do with this knowledge? Stripped of niceties, they passively accepted oblivion as the outcome and devoted their resources to enforcing the class hierarchy and the era's gender chivalry: 80% of male passengers perished, 25% of female passengers lost their lives. The loading of passengers into lifeboats was so poorly managed that only 60% of the lifeboat capacity was filled.

What if the officers had boldly accepted the inevitability of the ship sinking early on and devised a plan to minimize the loss of life? It would not have takes any extraordinary leap of creativity to organize the crew and passenger volunteers to strip the ship of everything that floated - wooden deck chairs, etc. - and lash them together into rafts. Given the calm seas that night and the freezing water, just keeping people above water would have been enough.

Rather than promote the absurd charade that the ship was fine, just fine, when time was of the essence, the authorities could have rounded up the women and children and filled every seat on lifeboats. Of the 1,030 people who could not be placed in a lifeboat, 890 were crew members, including about 25 women. The crew members were almost all in the prime of life. If anyone could survive several hours on a partially-submerged raft, it would have been the crew. (The first rescue ship arrived about two hours after the Titanic sank.)

Would this hurried effort to save everyone on board have succeeded? At a minimum, it would have saved an additional 475 souls via a careful loading of the lifeboats to capacity, and if the makeshift rafts had offered any meaningful flotation at all, many more lives would have been saved. Rather than devote resources to maintaining the pretense of safety and order, what if the ship's leaders had focused their response around answering a simple question: what was needed for people to survive a freezing night once the lifeboats were filled and the ship sank?

I think you see the analogy to the present. Our leadership, such as it is, is devoting resources to maintaining the absurd pretense that everything will magically re-set to what was normal if we just print enough money and bail out the financial Aristocracy.

Whether we realize it or not, we're responding with passive acceptance of oblivion. The economy and social order were precariously fragile before the pandemic, and now the fragilities are unraveling. We need to start thinking beyond pretense and PR."
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"When You Are In Deep Trouble..."

 

The Daily "Near You?"

Canarias, Spain. Thanks for stopping by!