“Winter Is Coming”

“Winter Is Coming”, Part 3

by Jim Quinn

“Summer will end soon enough, and childhood as well.” 

– George R.R. Martin, "Game of Thrones"

“The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War,and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.”– Strauss & Howe, “The Fourth Turning” 

“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impassible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance.

Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.”– Strauss & Howe, "The Fourth Turning"

“In Part One of this article I laid out the reasons for Gray Champions arising to meet challenges during crisis periods in history. In Part Two of this article I assessed the configuration of Gray Champions throughout the world and the potential impact on the course of this Fourth Turning.

The swirling fog of confusion enveloping the globe as the high lords of the universe play their game of thrones has even the most critical thinking individuals baffled by the course of events. The desperation and blatant lawlessness of the Deep State players in their endeavor to preserve their hegemony over the course of global affairs is palpable with every attack, false flag, accusation, and ratcheting up of their propaganda media machine.

Like “Game of Thrones,” the behind the scenes machinations, subterfuge, and deceptions taking place outside the purview of the common folk are designed to only benefit the rich and powerful players undertaking these traitorous actions. Open warfare will not happen until it is thought to be in the best interests of those manipulating the levers of society and the narrative produced by their perpetual propaganda media machine. But, in the end, it will be the innocent common people who will suffer the consequences, while the lords reap the riches, glory and power.

“Why is it always the innocents who suffer most, 

when you high lords play your game of thrones?” 

– “Lord Varys”,

- George R.R. Martin, “Game of Thrones”

The common people have always been blind to the next turning until after it fully arrives. Even now, the average person has no idea we are in the midst of a crisis period which will change the course of history. The overwhelming majority of the 335 million Americans, and billions around the globe, try to go about their daily lives oblivious to the intrigues, conspiracies, and treachery playing out at the highest levels of government and in smoky backrooms, where deals are made, wars plotted, and billions dispersed to the oligarchical lords running our world.

The common people get up, go to work, try to earn enough to survive or get ahead in life, raise their children, and endeavor to attain the lifestyle sold to them by their overlords based on delusion and debt. They are easily distracted by technological baubles, watching sporting events, enslaved by government handouts, and told what to believe by their keepers. They don’t want to experience the challenges of winter, but a never ending summer. They don’t want to think and be responsible for their lives. They want to be left in peace on Twitter and Facebook, but that isn’t how it works during a Fourth Turning winter.

“The common people pray for rain, healthy children, and a summer that never ends,” Ser Jorah told her. “It is no matter to them if the high lords play their game of thrones, so long as they are left in peace.” He gave a shrug. “They never are.” 

– George R.R. Martin, “A Game of Thrones”

There is no telling how the next ten or so years will play out; which alliances prove to be successful or disastrous, and the outcomes of the fast approaching civil and global wars, which are inevitable given the current state of affairs in the world. The Fourth Turning isn’t a prediction. It’s a period of crisis driven by the generational alignment which happens like clockwork every 80 to 100 years. It predicts nothing. The course of events is up to the individuals driving those events.

Those who attempt to dismiss this generational theory by calling it doom porn or saying it is impossible to predict the future are revealing their fears rather than arguing based on facts or substance. A man who fears the coming trials and tribulations has already lost. Fear works far better than swords in keeping the masses controlled. Take the Russian bogeyman scenario utilized to keep the ignorant masses distracted and bemused. Praying for a lone wolf to save the day and restore the world to its summer like condition is irrational and again based upon fear. Winter winds are already blowing at gale force.

“When the snows fall and the white winds blow, 

the lone wolf dies but the pack survives.” 

– “Ned Stark”,

 – George R.R. Martin, “Game of Thrones”

It’s fear that appears to be pushing people over the edge. The common people are being manipulated by the “powers that be” though propaganda, mistruths, distractions, iGadgets, hero worship, irrelevant social justice warrior issues, the illusion of political choices, and being lured into debt servitude by the banking cabal and their mega-corporation co-conspirators. They have successfully divided us into angry subsets of lone wolves unwilling or unable to unite and fight the true enemies.

The common people will again do the dying and get the short end of the stick, just as they did during the Civil War, Great Depression and World War II. In order to change the dynamics of this Fourth Turning from one where the lords determine our fate, it would require the majority to open their eyes to see the truth and be led by truly just men to overcome the forces of darkness currently in control. Based on history, this is an unlikely scenario, but still possible.

“Opening your eyes is all that is needing. The heart lies and 

the head plays tricks with us, but the eyes see true.” 

– “Syrio Forel”,

 – George R.R. Martin, “Game of Thrones” 

While Biden, Putin, and Xi play their game of thrones for world dominance, we the people still have to do our part at this crucial time in history. While the vast majority of Americans may not be intellectually capable of independent thought or critical thinking due to decades of dumbing down through the government education gulags and a steady diet of government propaganda, there are a minority of patriotic people who respect the Constitution and will need to man the wall.

We know the existing social order will be demolished by the end of this Fourth Turning and courageous acts will matter, sacrifice required, and defeating enemies from within and without will be compulsory. There will be no glory for common men who make the ultimate sacrifice and die for a better tomorrow for their children and grandchildren. Everyone has the potential to make a difference. Danger is omnipresent.

“I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post. I am the sword in the darkness. I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers, the shield that guards the realms of men.”

 – The Oath of the Brothers of the Night’s Watch

 – “Game of Thrones”

You don’t have to be a fan of the ‘Game of Thrones’ or a believer in the Fourth Turning to realize the world is in the midst of a crisis. Denial and willful ignorance will not turn back time to better days. Whether it be a fictional battle for control of the seven kingdoms or a real battle for control of petro-currencies, gas pipelines, natural resources, and military dominance, the humans locked in these battles never change.

Human nature has remained the same throughout history. The shortcomings of men across centuries have remained consistent: greed, power seeking, arrogance, cruelty, immorality, and hubris.  Even Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, a man of true courage, knew “the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being”. The coming storms will bring out the best and the worst in humanity. The nation could be snuffed out or be elevated to new glorious heights. If good wins out over evil the heroic deeds of the winners will become the stuff of myths and legends. If evil wins out over good the final shocking scene in “The Planet of the Apes” may be our future. The choices we make will matter.

Full screen recommended.

The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war…

History’s howling storms can bring out the worst and best in people. The next Fourth Turning can literally destroy us as a nation and people, leaving us cursed in the histories of those who endure and remember. Alternatively, it can ennoble our lives, elevate us as a community, and inspire acts of consummate heroism – deeds that will grow into myth-like legends recited by our heirs far into the future.” 

– Strauss & Howe, “The Fourth Turning”

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

"A Primer For The Propagandized: Fear Is The Mind-Killer"

"A Primer For The Propagandized:

Fear Is The Mind-Killer"

by Margaret Anna Alice 

“Those who can make people believe absurdities, 

can make people commit atrocities.”

- Voltaire

"The noose is dangling gently around our necks. Every day, they cinch it tighter. By the time we realize it’s strangling us, it will be too late. Those who – gradually and gleefully – sacrifice their freedoms, their autonomy, their individuality, their livelihoods, and their relationships on the altar of the “common good” have forgotten this is the pattern followed by every totalitarian regime in history.

Everyone wonders how ordinary Germans could have been manipulated to participate or stand dumbstruck while their government was transformed into a genocidal juggernaut. This is how. Read Sebastian Haffner’s "Defying Hitler" memoir to see how this can happen anywhere - including here.

Everyone wonders how Russians could have permitted and even zealously reported fellow citizens for imprisonment and execution under "Article 58", the penal code invented to incarcerate anyone who dared express the slightest whisper of noncompliance under Stalin’s homicidal state. This is how. Read Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn’s meticulously documented "The Gulag Archipelago" to witness this progression of authoritarian lunacy.

Everyone wonders how Hutus could have suddenly started axing their Tutsi neighbors to death after being inundated with waves of anti-Tutsi propaganda from "Radio Télévision Libre des Mille Collines." Read Philip Gourevitch’s "We Wish to Inform You That Tomorrow We Will Be Killed with Our Families: Stories from Rwanda."

The list goes on. And on. And on. From Machiavelli’s "The Prince" to Étienne de la Boetie’s "The Politics of Obedience: The Discourse of Voluntary Servitude" to Edward Herman’s and Noam Chomsky’s "Manufacturing Consent" (and accompanying documentary) to BBC’s "The Century of the Self," mechanisms of mass control have been chronicled for millennia.

George Orwell wrote, "As far as the mass of the people go, the extraordinary swings of opinion which occur nowadays, the emotions which can be turned on and off like a tap, are the result of newspaper and radio hypnosis.”

Can you imagine what master propagandist Edward Bernays would have done with access to today’s mainstream media conglomerate combined with the global surveillance infrastructure of Big Tech? And you really think that’s not happening now - with another century of psychological, neurological, and technological research under their belts?

The present ability to curate reality and coerce obedience is unprecedented, far beyond what Orwell envisioned in "1984", Bradbury in "Fahrenheit 451", Huxley in "Brave New World," and Burgess in "A Clockwork Orange."

A textbook example of "Problem Reaction Solution", the current tsunami of worldwide hysteria is the latest and potentially most threatening example of mass control in history.

The recipe is simple. Take a naturally occurring phenomenon, say a seasonal virus, and exaggerate its threat far beyond every imagining - despite exhaustive evidence to the contrary. Suppress, silence, ostracize, and demonize every individual who dares present facts that expose the false mono-narrative.

Whip up a witches’ brew of anger, envy, and, most importantly, fear, escalating emotions to a boil so as to short-circuit our faculties of reason and logic.

Isolate us from one another, supplant real-world interactions with virtual feuds, label nonconformists as a threat to the group, and pump the public with a disinformation campaign designed to confuse and atomize. In essence, foster a cultlike mentality that shuts down thought to guarantee assent.

Cultivate and wield our cognitive biases - especially ingroup bias, conformity bias, and authority bias - against us in a comprehensive divide-and-conquer policy that keeps us too busy squabbling amongst each other to recognize and unite against those corralling us into a Matrix-like collective delusion that enables the powerful to extract our resources for their own gain.

This ideological mass psychosis is religion - not science. If this were about science, the Media–Pharmaceutical–Big-Tech complex would not be memory-holing every dissenting voice, vilifying every thought criminal, and censoring every legitimate inquiry in quest of the truth.

Mark Twain said, “It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.” He also said: “In religion and politics people’s beliefs and convictions are in almost every case gotten at second-hand, and without examination, from authorities who have not themselves examined the questions at issue but have taken them at second-hand from other non-examiners, whose opinions about them were not worth a brass farthing.”

The next time you’re watching the news, reading a social media post, listening to a friend repeat a scripted talking point, pay attention. Learn to identify the earmarks of propaganda, the clickbait used to trigger your emotions, the mechanisms employed to engineer your cognitive biases.

Don’t let your pride prevent you from seeing - and admitting - the Emperor is naked. We are losing our last sliver of opportunity to resist authoritarianism. This is not a partisan issue. Those who wish to control us have made it such because disunited lemmings are easier to steer than independent, critical thinkers.

This is a human issue. This is about crushing the middle class - the backbone of a democratic republic - and transferring trillions from the middle and lower classes to the ruling plutocracy. This is about demolishing the foundations of a free society and building it back - not better, but better-controlled.

I will close by recommending a series of illuminating videos on menticide (“the systematic effort to undermine and destroy a person’s values and beliefs … to induce radically different ideas”) throughout history by "Academy of Ideas." This analysis of mass psychosis is nonpartisan and of value to every thinking human being.

• "Is a Mass Psychosis the Greatest Threat to Humanity?"

• "The Mass Psychosis and the Demons of Dostoevsky"

• "The Manufacturing of a Mass Psychosis – 

Can Sanity Return to an Insane World?
"

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"Dare to question. Dare to disbelieve. 

Dare to defy ideology in favor of science while you still can."

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

"All The Money You Make..."

All the money you make will never buy back your soul. 

- Bob Dylan

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Full screen recommended.

"Happiness"

”The 5 Stages of Economic Collapse”

”The 5 Stages of Economic Collapse” 

by Dmitry Orlov

“Elizabeth Kübler-Ross defined the five stages of coming to terms with grief and tragedy as denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance, and applied it quite successfully to various forms of catastrophic personal loss, such as death of a loved one, sudden end to one’s career, and so forth. Several thinkers, notably James Howard Kunstler and, more recently John Michael Greer, have pointed out that the Kübler-Ross model is also quite terrifyingly accurate in reflecting the process by which society as a whole (or at least the informed and thinking parts of it) is reconciling itself to the inevitability of a discontinuous future, with our institutions and life support systems undermined by a combination of resource depletion, catastrophic climate change, and political impotence.

But so far, little has been said specifically about the finer structure of these discontinuities. Instead, there is to be found continuum of subjective judgments, ranging from “a severe and prolonged recession” (the prediction we most often read in the financial press), to Kunstler’s evocative but unscientific-sounding “clusterf**k,” to the ever-popular “Collapse of Western Civilization,” painted with an ever-wider brush-stroke.

For those of us who have already gone through all of the emotional stages of reconciling ourselves to the prospect of social and economic upheaval, it might be helpful to have a more precise terminology that goes beyond such emotionally charged phrases. Defining a taxonomy of collapses might prove to be more than just an intellectual exercise: based on our abilities and circumstances, some of us may be able to specifically plan for a certain stage of collapse as a temporary, or even permanent, stopping point.

Even if society at the current stage of socioeconomic complexity will no longer be possible, and even if, as Tainter points in his “Collapse of Complex Societies,” there are circumstances in which collapse happens to be the correct adaptive response, it need not automatically cause a population crash, with the survivors disbanding into solitary, feral humans dispersed in the wilderness and subsisting miserably. Collapse can be conceived of as an orderly, organized retreat rather than a rout.

For instance, the collapse of the Soviet Union – our most recent and my personal favorite example of an imperial collapse – did not reach the point of political disintegration of the republics that made it up, although some of them (Georgia, Moldova) did lose some territory to separatist movements. And although most of the economy shut down for a time, many institutions, including the military, public utilities, and public transportation, continued to function throughout. And although there was much social dislocation and suffering, society as a whole did not collapse, because most of the population did not lose access to food, housing, medicine, or any of the other survival necessities. The command-and-control structure of the Soviet economy largely decoupled the necessities of daily life from any element of market psychology, associating them instead with physical flows of energy and physical access to resources. Thus situation, as I argue in my forthcoming book, Reinventing Collapse, allowed the Soviet population to inadvertently achieve a greater level of collapse-preparedness than is currently possible in the United States.

Having given a lot of thought to both the differences and the similarities between the two superpowers – the one that has collapsed already, and the one that is collapsing as I write this – I feel ready to attempt a bold conjecture, and define five stages of collapse, to serve as mental milestones as we gauge our own collapse-preparedness and see what can be done to improve it.

Rather than tying each phase to a particular emotion, as in the Kübler-Ross model, the proposed taxonomy ties each of the five collapse stages to the breaching of a specific level of trust, or faith, in the status quo. Although each stage causes physical, observable changes in the environment, these can be gradual, while the mental flip is generally quite swift. It is something of a cultural universal that nobody (but a real fool) wants to be the last fool to believe in a lie.

Stages of Collapse:

Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost. As local social institutions, be they charities, community leaders, or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum, run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity” (Turnbull, "The Mountain People"). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes “May you die today so that I die tomorrow” (Solzhenitsyn, "The Gulag Archipelago"). There may even be some cannibalism.

Although many people imagine collapse to be a sort of elevator that goes to the sub-basement (our Stage 5) no matter which button you push, no such automatic mechanism can be discerned. Rather, driving us all to Stage 5 will require that a concerted effort be made at each of the intervening stages. That all the players seem poised to make just such an effort may give this collapse the form a classical tragedy – a conscious but inexorable march to perdition – rather than a farce (“Oops! Ah, here we are, Stage 5.” – “So, whom do we eat first?” – “Me! I am delicious!”) Let us sketch out this process.

Financial collapse, as we are are currently observing it, consists of two parts. One is that a part of the general population is forced to move, no longer able to afford the house they bought based on inflated assessments, forged income numbers, and foolish expectations of endless asset inflation. Since, technically, they should never have been allowed to buy these houses, and were only able to do so because of financial and political malfeasance, this is actually a healthy development. The second part consists of men in expensive suits tossing bundles of suddenly worthless paper up in the air, ripping out their remaining hair, and (some of us might uncharitably hope) setting themselves on fire on the steps of the Federal Reserve. They, to express it in their own vernacular, “f**ked up,” and so this is also just as it should be.

The government response to this could be to offer some helpful homilies about “the wages of sin” and to open a few soup kitchens and flop houses in a variety of locations including Wall Street. The message would be: “You former debt addicts and gamblers, as you say, ‘f****d up,’ and so this will really hurt for a long time. We will never let you anywhere near big money again. Get yourselves over to the soup kitchen, and bring your own bowl, because we don’t do dishes.” This would result in a stable Stage 1 collapse – the Second Great Depression.

However, this is unlikely, because in the US the government happens to be debt addict and gambler number one. As individuals, we may have been as virtuous as we wished, but the government will have still run up exorbitant debts on our behalf. Every level of government, from local municipalities and authorities, which need the financial markets to finance their public works and public services, to the federal government, which relies on foreign investment to finance its endless wars, is addicted to public debt. They know they cannot stop borrowing, and so they will do anything they can to keep the game going for as long as possible.

About the only thing the government currently seems it fit to do is extend further credit to those in trouble, by setting interest rates at far below inflation, by accepting worthless bits of paper as collateral and by pumping money into insolvent financial institutions. This has the effect of diluting the dollar, further undermining its value, and will, in due course, lead to hyperinflation, which is bad enough in any economy, but is especially serious for one dominated by imports. As imports dry up and the associated parts of the economy shut down, we pass Stage 2: Commercial Collapse.

As businesses shut down, storefronts are boarded up and the population is left largely penniless and dependent on FEMA and charity for survival, the government may consider what to do next. It could, for example, repatriate all foreign troops and set them to work on public works projects designed to directly help the population. It could promote local economic self-sufficiency, by establishing community-supported agriculture programs, erecting renewable energy systems, and organizing and training local self-defense forces to maintain law and order. The Army Corps of Engineers could be ordered to bulldoze buildings erected on former farmland around city centers, return the land to cultivation, and to construct high-density solar-heated housing in urban centers to resettle those who are displaced. In the interim, it could reduce homelessness by imposing a steep tax on vacant residential properties and funneling the proceeds into rent subsidies for the indigent. With plenty of luck, such measures may be able to reverse the trend, eventually providing for a restoration of pre-Stage 2 conditions.

This may or may not be a good plan, but in any case it is rather unrealistic, because the United States, being so deeply in debt, will be forced to accede to the wishes of its foreign creditors, who own a lot of national assets (land, buildings, and businesses) and who would rather see a dependent American population slaving away working off their debt than a self-sufficient one, conveniently forgetting that they have mortgaged their children’s futures to pay for military fiascos, big houses, big cars, and flat-screen television sets. Thus, a much more likely scenario is that the federal government (knowing who butters their bread) will remain subservient to foreign financial interests. It will impose austerity conditions, maintain law and order through draconian means, and aid in the construction of foreign-owned factory towns and plantations. As people start to think that having a government may not be such a good idea, conditions become ripe for Stage 3.

If Stage 1 collapse can be observed by watching television, observing Stage 2 might require a hike or a bicycle ride to the nearest population center, while Stage 3 collapse is more than likely to be visible directly through one’s own living-room window, which may or may not still have glass in it. After a significant amount of bloodletting, much of the country becomes a no-go zone for the remaining authorities. Foreign creditors decide that their debts might not be repaid after all, cut their losses and depart in haste. The rest of the world decides to act as if there is no such place as The United States – because “nobody goes there any more.” So as not to lose out on the entertainment value, the foreign press still prints sporadic fables about Americans who eat their young, much as they did about Russia following the Soviet collapse. A few brave American expatriates who still come back to visit bring back amazing stories of a different kind, but everyone considers them eccentric and perhaps a little bit crazy.

Stage 3 collapse can sometimes be avoided by the timely introduction of international peacekeepers and through the efforts of international humanitarian NGOs. In the aftermath of a Stage 2 collapse, domestic authorities are highly unlikely to have either the resources or the legitimacy, or even the will, to arrest the collapse the dynamic and reconstitute themselves in a way that the population would accept.

As stage 3 collapse runs its course, the power vacuum left by the now defunct federal, state and local government is filled by a variety of new power structures. Remnants of former law enforcement and military, urban gangs, ethnic mafias, religious cults and wealthy property owners all attempt to build their little empires on the ruins of the big one, fighting each other over territory and access to resources. This is the age of Big Men: charismatic leaders, rabble-rousers, ruthless Machiavellian princes and war lords. In the luckier places, they find it to their common advantage to pool their resources and amalgamate into some sort of legitimate local government, while in the rest their jostling for power leads to a spiral of conflict and open war.

Stage 4 collapse occurs when society becomes so disordered and impoverished that it can no longer support the Big Men, who become smaller and smaller, and eventually fade from view. Society fragments into extended families and small tribes of a dozen or so families, who find it advantageous to band together for mutual support and defense. This is the form of society that has existed over some 98.5% of humanity’s existence as a biological species, and can be said to be the bedrock of human existence. Humans can exist at this level of organization for thousands, perhaps millions of years. Most mammalian species go extinct after just a few million years, but, for all we know, Homo Sapiens still have a million or two left.

If pre-collapse society is too atomized, alienated and individualistic to form cohesive extended families and tribes, or if its physical environment becomes so disordered and impoverished that hunger and starvation become widespread, then Stage 5 collapse becomes likely. At this stage, a simpler biological imperative takes over, to preserve the life of the breeding couples. Families disband, the old are abandoned to their own devices, and children are only cared for up to age 3. All social unity is destroyed, and even the couples may disband for a time, preferring to forage on their own and refusing to share food. This is the state of society described by the anthropologist Colin Turnbull in his book “The Mountain People.” If society prior to Stage 5 collapse can be said to be the historical norm for humans, Stage 5 collapse brings humanity to the verge of physical extinction.

As we can easily imagine, the default is cascaded failure: each stage of collapse can easily lead to the next, perhaps even overlapping it. In Russia, the process was arrested just past Stage 3: there was considerable trouble with ethnic mafias and even some warlordism, but government authority won out in the end. In my other writings, I go into a lot of detail in describing the exact conditions that inadvertently made Russian society relatively collapse-proof. Here, I will simply say that these ingredients are not currently present in the United States.

While attempting to arrest collapse at Stage 1 and Stage 2 would probably be a dangerous waste of energy, it is probably worth everyone’s while to dig in their heels at Stage 3, definitely at Stage 4, and it is quite simply a matter of physical survival to avoid Stage 5. In certain localities – those with high population densities, as well as those that contain dangerous nuclear and industrial installations – avoiding Stage 3 collapse is rather important, to the point of inviting foreign troops and governments in to maintain order and avoid disasters. Other localities may be able to prosper indefinitely at Stage 3, and even the most impoverished environments may be able to support a sparse population subsisting indefinitely at Stage 4.

Although it is possible to prepare directly for surviving Stage 5, this seems like an altogether demoralizing thing to attempt. Preparing to survive Stages 3 and 4 may seem somewhat more reasonable, while explicitly aiming for Stage 3 may be reasonable if you plan to become one of the Big Men. Be that as it may, I must leave such preparations as an exercise for the reader. My hope is that these definitions of specific stages of collapse will enable a more specific and fruitful discussion than the one currently dominated by such vague and ultimately nonsensical terms as “the collapse of Western civilization.”

- http://www.energybulletin.net/

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Freely download “Collapse of Complex Societies”, by Joseph A. Tainter, here:

- https://ia600106.us.archive.org/

"Societal Collapse"

"Societal Collapse"

by The ZMan

"Most people think of societal collapse as something like a zombie apocalypse where everything suddenly stops working. Instead of people turning into brain eating zombies, they stop going to work. The “system” collapses, so everyone just stops doing what they normally do all of a sudden. The next day, people divide up into gangs and begin to guard their turf using what is left of modern weapons. Life quickly returns to a hunter-gatherer existence with modern clothes.

This image of collapse is a powerful one. Google the phrase “United States collapse” or some version of it and you get results going back many years. Most of them start with economics but some start with culture. Right now, the people we call the Left for some reason think America is on the verge of collapse because they cannot force people to nod along with their weird morality. Many normal people think collapse is coming because they see the food bill every week.

Of course, there is a market for taking the contrary view. This is a popular gag for internet characters on what we continue to call the Right. They counter the claims from their fellow anti-leftists with arguments for why the “founding principals” will prevail and avoid societal collapse. Maybe they will point out that the magic of the free market has conquered communism, so it will conquer whatever is happening now. It is a form of strategic gainsaying to get attention.

The thing is societal collapse is a real thing that does happen just as civil wars, revolutions, wars and social upheavals are real things. Thirty years ago, the Soviet Union collapsed and we got to watch lots of it on television. When people suddenly realized that the guards were not going to shoot them if they tried to escape to the West, it did not take long before order broke down. Once the process started, there was no way to stop it and the system collapsed.

The thing is it did not happen overnight. The collapse actually started much earlier but people did not notice it. Little things stopped working. For example, people in Hungary began to notice that the border to Austria was not always guarded. Maybe the guards were there and ignored their duty or they just abandoned their post. Over time the border was not much of a border. Similar breakdowns of small systems became common over the course of the 1980’s.

Of course, the collapse of the Soviet Union did not send these societies back to the stone age either. Politics became increasingly chaotic. Law and order broke down to the point where criminal gangs were imposing their will on whole cities, because the police no longer had the ability or desire to stop them. The people got poorer in many small ways, but mostly in the breakdown of trust. They could not rely on the system, so they slowly abandoned it for alternatives.

We do not think of social trust as a part of the poverty equation, but in realty it is the key component of social happiness. High trust societies may not have unlimited consumer goods, but the people trust the system, because they trust one another. This allows for long term planning. Africa will never be rich, despite having massive natural resources, because social trust is near zero. Finland will never be poor because the Finns can count on their fellow Finns to always be Finnish.

Social collapse, like war and revolution, will reflect the material relations of the age because those reflect the resources of society. Revolution in the 18th century was peasants with pitchforks, because that is how you can revolt in an agrarian society operating under feudal rules. In the 19th century revolution was workers hurling homemade bombs and shooting at the authorities, because that is how you can stage a revolt in an industrial urban society.

This is the information age, so revolution will reflect the weapons we choose to use in this age, which will be money and knowledge. Money in all of its forms is a type of information that says things about the general state of affairs. In completely financialized societies like the West, money is the big weapon. It is also other information, like the government hiring clowns and carnies to nudge people in the “right direction” during the Covid panic.

The great tumult in the West over the last decade has been centered on the things that are important in the information age. The rise of a new group of oligarchs was made possible by the technological revolution. Just as agrarian people measured wealth in land and industrial people measured wealth in capital, technological people measure wealth in control of information flows. The reason Mark Zuckerberg is richer than Bill Gates is he controls something more valuable than PC’s.

Societal collapse in the information age will, at least at the beginning, reflect the socioeconomic relations of the age. Trust in what we are told by the media has collapsed, because it is easier to see the lying than in prior ages. In 1985 you could think the New York Times was biased, but predictably so. Today, you cannot trust anything they say because it is false in unpredictable ways. Trust in the media has collapsed because their information is chaotically false.

The slow collapse of trust in our information is spreading. We used to think that the courts were predictable, if not always fair. Poor people might not get the same justice as rich people, but the reason was understood. If you could afford a competent lawyer, he would get the most from the system for you. Today, no one knows what the hell will happen in a courtroom. Alex Jones just got fined a billion dollars because the regime supporters are still salty about the 2016 election.

Of course, trust in government is collapsing not because they do not fix the streets or make the buses run on time. Trust is falling because they lie. It is not about politicians lying, which is expected and predictable. It is the government itself. For example, they appear to be faking key economic data. Their inflation numbers are laughable as anyone who buys food will tell you. They also like to change the meaning of words, which puts an Orwellian spin on the lying.

Getting back to the topic of collapse, what happens in the information age when no one trusts the information? In a world where your bank may close down your account because they claim you hold the wrong opinions; how can you trust them to be straight about anything else? If the government is faking economic data, how can we trust anything else they are doing? When the people responsible for 100% of disinformation claim to be fighting disinformation, who can we trust?

When the Soviet system began to collapse, it was the symbols of its power that first came under pressure. When people stopped fearing the border guard, they slowly stopped fearing the system behind it. The same will be true in this age. When people stop trusting the information that runs this world, they will slowly begin to stop trusting the system behind it. It is at that point the system begins to slowly unravel as alternative trust networks form up to fill the void.

The bottom line is those waiting for collapse are mistaken. It is not a thing that is looming over the horizon. It is a thing that is happening now. Every day there is a new reminder that the system cannot be trusted. Maybe it is ten dollar gas in Germany or skyrocketing food prices in England or demonstrably false claims from the drug makers with regards to the Covid jab. These things chip away at trust in the system and like the game of Jenga, the result is inevitable."

- https://thezman.com/

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Related:

Jared Diamond, 

"Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed"

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Joseph Tainter, 

"The Dynamics of the Collapse of Human Civilization"

"Massive Price Increases At Costco! This Is Crazy!"

Full screen recommended.

Adventures with Danno, 10/16/22:

"Massive Price Increases At Costco! This Is Crazy!"

"In today's vlog we are at Costco, and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

"This Is The Perfect Storm For A Collapse"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly 10/15/22:

"This Is The Perfect Storm For A Collapse"

"We are hearing from many experts like Nouriel Roubini and Ray Dalio to warn us that companies are in very precarious positions. Now the big banks are all starting to chime in and tell us that things are not as good as they told us they were just a few weeks ago."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Musical Interlude: 2002, "Return to Freedom"

Full screen recommended.

2002, "Return to Freedom"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“While drifting through the cosmos, a magnificent interstellar dust cloud became sculpted by stellar winds and radiation to assume a recognizable shape. Fittingly named the Horsehead Nebula, it is embedded in the vast and complex Orion Nebula (M42). A potentially rewarding but difficult object to view personally with a small telescope, the above gorgeously detailed image was recently taken in infrared light by the orbiting Hubble Space Telescope in honor of the 23rd anniversary of Hubble's launch. 

The dark molecular cloud, roughly 1,500 light years distant, is cataloged as Barnard 33 and is seen above primarily because it is backlit by the nearby massive star Sigma Orionis. The Horsehead Nebula will slowly shift its apparent shape over the next few million years and will eventually be destroyed by the high energy starlight.”

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130422.html

"We Deserve Better..."

"We are the world. We are the people and we 

deserve better, not because we're worth it, but because no 

worth can be put on the incalculable, on the infinite, on life."

- Nick Mancuso

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“Each of us inevitable; Each of us limitless -

 each of us with his or her right upon the earth; 

Each of us allowed the eternal purports of the earth; 

Each of us here as divinely as any is here.”

- Walt Whitman

"The Hyphen..."

"Life is the hyphen between matter and spirit."

- A.W. and J.C. Hare, "Guesses at Truth, by Two Brothers," 1827

"How Could You? A Dog's Story"

"How Could You? A Dog's Story"

by Jim Willis

"When I was a puppy I entertained you with my antics and made you laugh. You called me your child and despite a number of chewed shoes and a couple of murdered throw pillows, I became your best friend. Whenever I was "bad," you'd shake your finger at me and ask "How could you?" - but then you'd relent and roll me over for a bellyrub.

My housetraining took a little longer than expected, because you were terribly busy, but we worked on that together. I remember those nights of nuzzling you in bed, listening to your confidences and secret dreams, and I believed that life could not be any more perfect. We went for long walks and runs in the park, car rides, stops for ice cream (I only got the cone because "ice cream is bad for dogs," you said), and I took long naps in the sun waiting for you to come home at the end of the day.

Gradually, you began spending more time at work and on your career, and more time searching for a human mate. I waited for you patiently, comforted you through heartbreaks and disappointments, never chided you about bad decisions, and romped with glee at your homecomings, and when you fell in love.

She, now your wife, is not a "dog person" - still I welcomed her into our home, tried to show her affection, and obeyed her. I was happy because you were happy. Then the human babies came along and I shared your excitement. I was fascinated by their pinkness, how they smelled, and I wanted to mother them, too. Only she and you worried that I might hurt them, and I spent most of my time banished to another room, or to a dog crate. Oh, how I wanted to love them, but I became a "prisoner of love."

As they began to grow, I became their friend. They clung to my fur and pulled themselves up on wobbly legs, poked fingers in my eyes, investigated my ears and gave me kisses on my nose. I loved everything about them, especially their touch - because your touch was now so infrequent - and I would have defended them with my life if need be. I would sneak into their beds and listen to their worries and secret dreams. Together we waited for the sound of your car in the driveway. There had been a time, when others asked you if you had a dog, that you produced a photo of me from your wallet and told them stories about me. These past few years, you just answered "yes" and changed the subject. I had gone from being your dog to "just a dog," and you resented every expenditure on my behalf.

Now you have a new career opportunity in another city and you and they will be moving to an apartment that does not allow pets. You've made the right decision for your "family," but there was a time when I was your only family.

I was excited about the car ride until we arrived at the animal shelter. It smelled of dogs and cats, of fear, of hopelessness. You filled out the paperwork and said "I know you will find a good home for her." They shrugged and gave you a pained look. They understand the realities facing a middle-aged dog or cat, even one with "papers."

You had to pry your son's fingers loose from my collar as he screamed "No, Daddy! Please don't let them take my dog!" And I worried for him and what lessons you had just taught him about friendship and loyalty, about love and responsibility, and about respect for all life. You gave me a goodbye pat on the head, avoided my eyes, and politely refused to take my collar and leash with you. You had a deadline to meet and now I have one, too.

After you left, the two nice ladies said you probably knew about your upcoming move months ago and made no attempt to find me another good home. They shook their heads and asked "How could you?"

They are as attentive to us here in the shelter as their busy schedules allow. They feed us, of course, but I lost my appetite days ago. At first, whenever anyone passed my pen, I rushed to the front, hoping it was you - that you had changed your mind - that this was all a bad dream... or I hoped it would at least be someone who cared, anyone who might save me. When I realized I could not compete with the frolicking for attention of happy puppies, oblivious to their own fate, I retreated to a far corner and waited.

I heard her footsteps as she came for me at the end of the day and I padded along the aisle after her to a separate room. A blissfully quiet room. She placed me on the table, rubbed my ears and told me not to worry. My heart pounded in anticipation of what was to come, but there was also a sense of relief. The prisoner of love had run out of days. As is my nature, I was more concerned about her. The burden which she bears weighs heavily on her and I know that, the same way I knew your every mood.

She gently placed a tourniquet around my foreleg as a tear ran down her cheek. I licked her hand in the same way I used to comfort you so many years ago. She expertly slid the hypodermic needle into my vein. As I felt the sting and the cool liquid coursing through my body, I lay down sleepily, looked into her kind eyes and murmured "How could you?"

Perhaps because she understood my dogspeak, she said "I'm so sorry." She hugged me and hurriedly explained it was her job to make sure I went to a better place, where I wouldn't be ignored or abused or abandoned, or have to fend for myself - a place of love and light so very different from this earthly place. With my last bit of energy, I tried to convey to her with a thump of my tail that my "How could you?" was not meant for her. It was you, My Beloved Master, I was thinking of. I will think of you and wait for you forever. May everyone in your life continue to show you so much loyalty."

- http://www.crean.com/jimwillis/

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"If there are no dogs in Heaven,

then when I die I want to go where they went."

- Will Rogers

Dogs are better people than people will ever be...

The Daily "Near You?"

Fort Smith, Arkansas, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Too Often..."

"Too often we underestimate the power of a touch, a smile, a kind word, 

a listening ear, an honest compliment, or the smallest act of caring, 

all of which have the potential to turn a life around."

- Leo Buscaglia

"The Bottom of the Barrel"

"The Bottom of the Barrel"

Draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve,

 chasing runaway inflation and preparing for the worst...

by Joel Bowman

Buenos Aires, Argentina - "Inflation, goes the old joke, is when you pay fifteen dollars for the ten-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you still had hair. Here in Argentina’s capital, we remember paying 100 pesos for a haircut, which included a straight razor shave and a whisky. Old school-style. At the time, 100 pesos was worth about $5. But that was back in... what was it, 2013, 2014? Today (yesterday, actually), that same cut, shave and tipple, cost us $7... which is currently equal to ~2,000 pesos. A 40% increase in dollar terms, in other words... but a 2,000% increase in pesos. Once again, when it comes to the race to the fin del mundo, Argentina leads the way!

Back in the northern hemisphere, meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics told us this week what every American who pays rent, buys gas, eats food, etc. probably already knows... which is to say, inflation is anything but “transitory.” Wednesday’s BLS report showed the Consumer Price Index running at an 8.2% year-over-year increase, while the Core Index (for those of you who do not eat or use energy), came in at 6.6%, the largest year-on-year increase in forty years (going back to August, 1982). Moreover, at 0.4%, the monthly CPI increase was double what “experts” had forecast. The Core Index, sans food and fuel, was up 0.6%. The difference between CPI and Core reading represents the drop in energy prices over the month (fuel oil was down -2.7%; gasoline -4.9%).

Killer Crossover: Essentially, it’s a nice break, while you get it... but with the energy crunch only worsening over in Europe (even as winter is still more than two months away), and OPEC+ yanking 2 million bpd from the global supply, one wonders how much longer falling energy prices will exert downward pressure on inflation in the US.

Recall that the Biden administration has been draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, in a conspicuous attempt to bring relief at the pump (this national asset will have to be refilled sometime in the future, mind you, presumably at much higher prices), but as the chart below shows, this is hardly a long term solution… (colleague Dan Denning sent this one over earlier in the week with the title “Killer Crossover.” Indeed!)

The Biden administration pledged to draw another 10 million barrels from the SPR back in early October... just enough to tide voters over until after the mid-term elections... but there’s only so many left barrels in the “oil for votes” reserve. Already at a 40yr low, the nation’s “oil piggy bank” is fast running dry.

What happens if (or when) energy tilts in a positive direction again? If, even as the Fed is hiking rates (further) into a recession, inflation proves too fleet to overtake? What then? "The bottom line,” Dan broke it down for members in his Friday market note, “is that the financial world cannot take a much stronger dollar and higher US interest rates while the real world cannot take sustained inflation of near 10%. Something has to give. But what?”

Earlier in the week we showed you this graph, plotting the return of both US stock and bond markets going back almost a century, to the Jazz Age.

As you can see, 2022 is keeping some pretty miserable company down there in the lower left-hand quadrant (1931 and 1967). When things get this extreme, it’s worth looking at the other side of the prevailing trend…

In other words, could the worst be behind us? It’s a question Dan took up in yesterday’s note. Here, a key snippet..."What if bonds are telling us the worst is already over? Won’t stocks rally from here? That’s not our investment position. But the point of keeping an eye on the price action and poking around in the beaten down corners of the market is to see if something has changed that requires a change on our part.

Consider the chart below, from Bank of America. The Bank released that chart and concluded the most contrarian trade of 2023 is to be ‘long’ a 60/40 portfolio and short the US dollar. As we discussed in the original The Strategy Report, a 60/40 portfolio has a 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds. Bonds, which are typically less volatile, ‘smooth out’ your total returns by balancing more volatile (but higher returning) stocks. That’s the idea anyway.

But when bonds are just as volatile as stocks, and no less risky, you get the chart below: a 34.4% year-to-date decline in a traditional 60/40 portfolio. It may get better by the end of the year, if stocks finish strong and bonds have fully priced in Fed rate hikes (and the rate hikes are exactly what the market is expecting).

As a contrarian, you’d have to be a little intrigued with a 60/40 portfolio doing the worst it has in 100 years. You’d also have to be a little intrigued with the dollar at 23 year highs against the Yen, with the Euro below parity, and the Pound fast approaching parity. All those moves are historically extreme.

The simplest explanation, as I showed in The Dollar Report, is that in a deflationary bust, liquidity flees from less-liquid derivative assets to more liquid cash, bonds, high quality stocks, and government bonds. Ultimately, in a catastrophic bust, liquidity disappears altogether and the holders of hard assets (gold real, collectibles, real estate) are the only ones who can start over in a new currency regime.

What does that mean for investors looking for a place to hide? Dear readers will recall Bill’s advice from Friday’s missive..."In this, the asset sell-off stage, the best place to be is dollar cash. Stick with dollars… until… until that magic moment when investors give up, panic takes hold, and the Fed reverses course. Then, you will want your money in gold, land, antifragile businesses, timber, real estate – anything that might hold its value in an inflationary crisis. “The general rule,” he concluded, “Cash now; Real assets later.” Here’s lookin’ at you, gold!"

- bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com

“Al Swearengen's Take On Life"

Strong language alert!

"In life you have to do a lot of things you don't ****ing want to do.

Many times, that's what the **** life is... one vile ****ing task after another."

○

Strong language alert!

"Pain or damage don't end the world, or despair or f***ing beatings. 

The world ends when you’re dead. Until then you got more punishment

 in store. Stand it like a man, and give some back.”

- “Al Swearengen”, Ian McShane’s character on “Deadwood”