"That Giant Sound You Just Heard Was The Housing Market Starting To Crack"

"That Giant Sound You Just Heard Was

 The Housing Market Starting To Crack"

by Michael Snyder

"It is happening again. More than a decade ago, we witnessed an absolutely unprecedented “housing bubble” in the United States followed by a horrific crash that resulted in millions of Americans losing their homes and a financial catastrophe on Wall Street that we still talk about today. But instead of learning our lessons from that disaster, we are repeating history instead. The “housing bubble” that we are currently experiencing is far larger than the one that burst in 2008, and everyone knew that if mortgage rates rose high enough it could cause the bubble to burst. Unfortunately, that is precisely what is taking place. The average 30 year fixed mortgage rate was sitting at 2.67 percent in December 2020, and now it has risen to 5.30 percent. In case you are bad at math, that means that the average 30 year fixed mortgage rate has roughly doubled, and that is extremely bad news for the housing market.

The combination of rapidly rising prices and soaring interest rates means that homes have become far less affordable these days. According to CNN, U.S. home prices have jumped almost 21 percent compared to a year ago…"It’s understandable that homeowners, in particular, might be worried about a potential housing market crash - 2008 is our most recent example of what can happen after an incredible run-up in home values. And we’ve never seen a market hotter than this one. The typical US home is worth nearly 21% more than it was just a year ago, a record that’s been reset each of the past 12 months."

Meanwhile, mortgage rates have gone absolutely nuts. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30 year fixed mortgage rate went from 2.97 percent last April to 5.11 percent this April. That is a seismic shift. As a result of this shift, the typical monthly payment for someone buying a home went from $1,124 in December 2020 to $1,742 in April 2022. That represents a whopping 55 percent increase…"Here’s how the numbers look for the typical home in the U.S.: The median price for a home has risen from $309,200 in December 2020 to $357,300.

Over that same period, interest rates rose from 2.67% to 5.08% this week. With a 10% down payment, that has pushed the monthly payment up from $1,124 to $1,742 - a whopping 55% increase. That’s upward of $600 a month on that $357,000 home. That’s the impact of higher prices together with rising rates."

And the truth is that the typical monthly payment is even higher here in May, because the average 30 year fixed mortgage rate has shot up to 5.30 percent…"The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 5.3% the second week of May, according to the government-backed mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. That’s the highest it’s been since 2009. Six months ago, mortgage rates were in the 3% range."

This is the highest that mortgage rates have been since July 2009. And in July 2009 we were living through the aftermath of the worst housing crash in all of U.S. history. Will the coming collapse be even worse?

Data that is coming in for the month of April seems to indicate that the market is already starting to crack…"As data trickles in for April, it’s becoming clear that the historically hot housing market has flipped trajectories. It’s now in cooling mode. The number of homes listed for sale is rising again. Fewer shoppers are scheduling tours. And Redfin reports 15% of home sellers in April cut their asking price - up from 9% a year ago."

And it appears that things could rapidly get even worse. The following quotes from industry insiders were recently posted on Zero Hedge…

• Washington DC builder: “Traffic half what it was in March. Worried about first time buyers. Many fewer REAL buyers than number of people collected on interest list last 6 months. Certainly more attempts [from buyers] to negotiate.”

• Seattle builder: “Pause by a large population of buyers. To achieve our desired [sales] pace, we had to make price adjustments. Rates starting to knock people out of qualification.”

• Riverside San Bernardino builder: “Cancellations are starting to creep up due to loan declines and job losses. Waiting lists are certainly smaller. Saw an immediate change in buyer behavior when rates climbed over 5%.”

• Los Angeles builder: “Buyers who are stretching to purchase have become more cautious.”

• San Diego builder: “Buyers are definitely a bit more edgy.”

The market has clearly peaked, and now we are getting ready for the long ride downhill. And it won’t be pretty.

If the Federal Reserve wanted to support the housing market, it would keep interest rates low, but the Federal Reserve has decided not to do that. Instead, the Federal Reserve is recklessly raising interest rates because it is so scared of inflation. The Fed has warned us that more rate increases are on the way in the months ahead, and that will undoubtedly push mortgage rates even higher.

When asked if he could engineer a “soft landing”, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was very honest about the fact that he could not guarantee one…"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned Thursday that getting inflation under control could cause some economic pain but remains his top priority. Powell said he couldn’t promise a so-called soft landing for the economy as the Fed raises interest rates to tamp down price increases running near their fastest pace in more than 40 years."

If a plane does not have a “soft landing”, what kind of landing does it have? Needless to say, the only other options are a bumpy landing or a crash. Sadly, it appears that our housing market is in for either a bumpy landing or a crash as well. And considering how much larger this housing bubble is compared to all other U.S. housing bubbles throughout history, I would say that the odds of a crash are really quite high.

The party was fun while it lasted, but now it has come to a screeching halt. I hope that you are prepared for what comes next."

- http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

"How It Really Is"

 
Good luck!

Canadian Prepper, "SHTF Enters Terrifying New Phase..."

Full screen recommended.

Canadian Prepper, "SHTF Enters Terrifying New Phase..."

"20 Sad Facts About The Deindustrialization Of America"

Full screen recommended.

"20 Sad Facts About The Deindustrialization Of America"

by Epic Economist

"The decline of the U.S. industrial sector has been accelerating at a frightening pace over the past decades. Millions of manufacturing jobs have been shipped to overseas markets and a large share of our production has been offshored to China. The shift has been so intense, that some argue the United States is rapidly becoming the very first "post-industrial" nation on the globe. But all of this happened with a cost - and for American workers, that cost has been massive. Yearly wages for manufacturing jobs range around $48,000 to $60,000, allowing workers to support middle-class lifestyles, and granting them medical insurance and retirement benefits. But especially after the 2000s, Americans have been losing job opportunities in the manufacturing sector and being left with limited low-paying options that do not provide any benefits nor promote financial stability.

In the 1940s, the United States was the largest producer in the world. In fact, by 1945, more steel was produced in the state of Pennsylvania alone than in Germany and Japan combined. This belle epoch, the glory days of ‘Made in America’, ran well into the 1990s, but after that, the American industry steadily declined. By the turn of the century, the US’s global domination in mass-scale industrial production, technology, and efficiency was lost. Long-standing issues culminated between 2000 and 2010, when the US lost over 30% of its manufacturing jobs. “This was a very tough decade, a very dramatic shift,” explains William B Bonvillian, a lecturer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “Millions of jobs just disappeared.”

Deindustrialization also leaves the U.S. supply chain in a very risky position. Since much of the products we buy and consume are produced outside of the country, one single disruption in shipping or manufacturing in foreign nations can lead to shortages, price increases, and port congestion in the U.S. Even worse, if America were to enter a global conflict, sanctions on exports from Eastern nations could completely break our domestic supply chains and trigger an unprecedented amount of chaos all over the country. Unfortunately, it seems that we won't be reversing this trend any time soon.

Today, we gathered some telling statistics that illustrate why deindustrialization is becoming a national crisis.These numbers expose that a deindustrialized America doesn't have any kind of viable economic future. While our domestic production declines, we continue to be the largest consumers on the planet, and that has been expanding the U.S. trade deficit to alarming levels. As the most powerful economy on the globe, we shouldn't be putting ourselves in such a vulnerable position and especially not leaving our workers with jobs that only allow them to live paycheck to paycheck. Our national debt has become way too big, and our economy is now just a shadow of what it once was. Outsourcing our production is a strategy that will come back to bite us in a moment when we need it the most. America's future is in deep, deep trouble. Now more than ever, it is time to wake up."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com/

Gerald Celente, "Trends Journal: FED Head Says His Actions Will Inflict Pain"

Full screen recommended.

Strong language alert!

Gerald Celente, 5/12/22:

"Trends Journal: FED Head Says His Actions Will Inflict Pain"

"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

- https://trendsresearch.com

"An Infant Story Of American Scarcity"

"An Infant Story Of American Scarcity"

by Addison Wiggin

“The first lesson of economics is scarcity: there is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics.”

– Thomas Sowell

"In the economy, there is the “seen” and the “unseen.” Frederick Bastiat wrote his foundational economic piece in 1850. How soon we forget.

Seen: A baby formula shortage. Check the headlines.

Unseen: a mysterious bacteria; the infernal virus; and the usual suspect regulations.

This is less a story of “the more things go away, the more people want them,” than it is a failed attempt at market manipulation. It also has aspects of the Pandemic which mask the real culprit. Far be it for us to bloviate on shortages. We still have packages of Charmin Ultra Soft; canned Le Petit Soeur peas and boxes of Barilla pasta in our pantry from the spring of 2020. I’ve often thought, looking at my own pantry, if I was an infantryman from an occupying force, my pantry would be a good find after several days of battle.

That said, I’m not a mother. I don’t have an infant. There is a difference between yearning for peas and not being able to feed your newborn.

To begin: Abbot is one of the three largest manufacturers of baby formula in the U.S. Gerber is another you’ll recognize. The third is Mead Johnson. “Abbott says it will be at least two months,” reads a headline from FOXNews, “before baby formula from shuttered plant hits shelves.”

This morning, "The Atlantic" ran this article by a writer I’ve come to respect, Derek Thompson, on the baby formula shortage. When did it become normal for a supply chain issue to occupy major headline news? Mr. Thompson asserts 40% of baby formula is out of supply across the United States. A bacterial outbreak of cronobacter sahazakii – which also made headline news – shut down one of Abbot’s plants in Michigan.

Still, how is it possible that one plant… one manufacturing plant… can and could be the source of a 40% dearth in baby formula for small humans in the United States? Ahh… there’s the seen and the unseen. Or might we suggest, unseemly. Thompson: "FDA regulation of formula is so stringent that most of the stuff that comes out of Europe is illegal to buy here… one study found that many European formula meet the FDA nutritional guidelines – and in some ways, might even be better than American formula because the European Union bans certain sugars, such as corn syrup, and requires formula to have a higher share of lactose."

Whether Derek’s conclusion is correct or not, we give it to you knowing full well fructose producers and Abbot may have a concern in the issue: “America’s reasonable instinct to protect infants has metastasized into an unreasonably protectionist trade policy that makes the U.S. formula market exquisitely sensitive to existential shocks (like a pandemic) and domestic shocks (like a major recall).”

To get a reasonable investment perspective of the food supply chains, we have Mark Rossano on The Wiggin Sessions this week. We’re talking about global food supplies from a macro perspective.

Click above. Listen closely."

"Follow your bliss,"

- WigginSessions@email.5minforecast.com

Musical Interlude: Deuter, "Sound of Invisible Waters"

Full screen recommended.

Deuter, "Sound of Invisible Waters"

"A Look to the Heavens"

 “A now famous picture from the Hubble Space Telescope featured Pillars of Creation, star forming columns of cold gas and dust light-years long inside M16, the Eagle Nebula. This false-color composite image views the nearby stellar nursery using data from the Herschel Space Observatory's panoramic exploration of interstellar clouds along the plane of our Milky Way galaxy. Herschel's far infrared detectors record the emission from the region's cold dust directly.

The famous pillars are included near the center of the scene. While the central group of hot young stars is not apparent at these infrared wavelengths, the stars' radiation and winds carve the shapes within the interstellar clouds. Scattered white spots are denser knots of gas and dust, clumps of material collapsing to form new stars. The Eagle Nebula is some 6,500 light-years distant, an easy target for binoculars or small telescopes in a nebula rich part of the sky toward the split constellation Serpens Cauda (the tail of the snake).”

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap160728.html

"Something Like Reverence..."

“When the pain of leaving behind what we know outweighs the pain of embracing it, or when the power we face is overwhelming and neither flight nor fight will save us, there may be salvation in sitting still. And if salvation is impossible, then at least before perishing we may gain a clearer vision of where we are. By sitting still I do not mean the paralysis of dread, like that of a rabbit frozen beneath the dive of a hawk. I mean something like reverence, a respectful waiting, a deep attentiveness to forces much greater than our own.”

- Scott Russell Sanders

"Does Anyone Know..."

"All sins, of course, deserve to be treated with mercy: we all do what we can, and life is too hard and too cruel for us to condemn anyone for failing in this area. Does anyone know what he himself would do if faced with the worst and how much truth could he bear under such circumstances?"

- Andre Comte-Sponville

City Prepping, "I’m Concerned About What I See Coming Next..."

Full screen recommended.

City Prepping, "I’m Concerned About What I See Coming Next..."

"There are many challenges coming on the horizon that seem very probable, but have I been right or wrong about my concerns?" 

 Download the free Start Preparing! Survival Guide here: 

- https://courses.cityprepping.com/get-started/

Start your preparedness journey today: - https://courses.cityprepping.com/

Visit online: - http://www.cityprepping.com

Gregory Mannarino, "Markets: Sell It All? Everything? Several Things In Play Right Now that You Must Know"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 5/12/22:

"Markets: Sell It All? Everything? 

Several Things In Play Right Now that You Must Know"

- https://traderschoice.net/

"Done! Financial Markets Burn To The Ground; Game Stop Halted; Credit Markets In Danger; PPP"

Full screen recommended.

Jeremiah Babe, 5/12/22:

"Done! Financial Markets Burn To The Ground; 

Game Stop Halted; Credit Markets In Danger; PPP"

"Economic Devastation is Here with No End in Sight"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly, 5/12/22:

"Economic Devastation is Here with No End in Sight"

"There are so many things happening right now in the global economy. Small business sentiment is at one of the lowest levels around the globe. Small businesses having nothing but problems with hiring and getting product for their businesses."

"Peak Focus For Complex Tasks, Deep Ambience (Multi Track) Isochronic Tones"

Full screen recommended.

Jason Lewis - Mind Amend,

"Peak Focus For Complex Tasks, Deep Ambience

 (Multi Track) Isochronic Tones"

"This an extended version of my Peak Focus For Complex Tasks session. Listen to this when you need a strong burst of intense focus to concentrate and study things like advanced mathematics, scientific formulas, financial analysis or any other complex mental activity.

What is this? This is a high-intensity audio brainwave entrainment session, using isochronic tones. Listen to this when you need a strong burst of intense focus to concentrate and study things like advanced mathematics, scientific formulas, financial analysis or any other complex mental activity.

How is this session constructed? The session starts off beating at 10Hz and ramps up to 18Hz by the 6-minute mark. It stays at 18Hz until the final 5 minutes where it ramps back down again.

How to use it? Listen to this track with your eyes open while doing the task/activity you want to focus on.

Headphones are NOT required: Although headphones are not required you may find they produce a more intense effect, because they help to block out distracting external sounds."

If you are new to this type of audio brainwave entrainment, find out how isochronic tones work and how they compare to binaural beats here:"

- https://www.mindamend.com/

○

This works for me, but you may say "So why bother?" The world's an astonishingly complex place, and truth is buried under layers of lies, deceptions and deliberate misinformation. See that graphic? That's us, all of us, facing the inescapable consequences the psychopath's actions have caused, not just total economic destruction; the Covid vaccine abomination, described accurately as "The greatest organized mass murder in the history of the world"; and the very real possibility of nuclear war. There is truly NO escape, folks, no hope. Nothing we can do about it, either. Knowing that doesn't relieve us of the responsibility to live good, honorable, decent lives as best we can, do what we can to help others, and look for the truth, trying to understand always. Why, when we're literally doomed and it can't be avoided? My own reason is simple... if I'm to stand before a firing squad, and we all are, I want, no, I demand to at least know why...

- CP

The Daily "Near You?"

Dubuque, Iowa, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Sitrep Operation Z – Where Are We?"

"Sitrep Operation Z – Where Are We?"

by Saker Staff 5/12/22

Excerpt: "The main observation which one cannot help but agree with, comes from Andrei Martyanov and I rephrase somewhat: The rate of change is markedly accelerating as the first result of the crumbling and implosion of the Ukraine as a state and the structure of its armed forces. Things will go quicker now and they are, as discussed further!

First though, pure fantasy. We call it ‘narrative’ but it is fantasy! This was found on a Ukrainian site : https://t.me/ice_inii

Take a look at a few things here: The US influence, the fantasy of being the Robin Williams character in the movie Good Morning Vietnam and the fantasy of being the gook! These fighters live in a movie. And then, the breakdown of the fantasy. This is another example of exactly what Martyanov means.

Strong language alert!

The main observation which one cannot help but agree with, comes from Andrei Martyanov and I rephrase somewhat: "The rate of change is markedly accelerating as the first result of the crumbling and implosion of the Ukraine as a state and the structure of its armed forces. Things will go quicker now and they are, as discussed further!"

First though, pure fantasy. We call it ‘narrative’ but it is fantasy! This was found on a Ukrainian site : https://t.me/ice_inii

Take a look at a few things here: The US influence, the fantasy of being the Robin Williams character in the movie Good Morning Vietnam and the fantasy of being the gook! These fighters live in a movie. And then, the breakdown of the fantasy. This is another example of exactly what Martyanov means."

Please view this complete, factual article here

- https://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z-where-are-we/

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

"Is 'Meltdown' The Correct Term To Describe The Current State Of The U.S. Economy?"

"Is 'Meltdown' The Correct Term To Describe

 The Current State Of The U.S. Economy?"

by Michael Snyder

"I have really been struggling to come up with an accurate way of describing the current state of the U.S. economy, because none of the traditional labels seem to apply. Inflation is out of control, and that normally happens when an economy is overheating. But of course the U.S. economy is not overheating. In fact, if U.S. GDP falls once again during the second quarter, that will officially confirm that we are actually in a recession right now. There are some that have suggested that “stagflation” is a good description of current economic conditions, but the truth is that what we are facing is so much worse than anything that we dealt with during the 1970s.

Let me give you an example. The Bureau of Labor Statistics just informed us that the consumer price index is 8.3 percent higher than it was a year ago…"Inflation rose again in April, continuing a climb that has pushed consumers to the brink and is threatening the economic expansion, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of prices for goods and services, increased 8.3% from a year ago, higher than the Dow Jones estimate for an 8.1% gain."

That is a really bad number, but it doesn’t accurately reflect reality. If inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, the official rate of inflation would be well over 15 percent right now, and that is far worse than at any point during the Jimmy Carter era. And if you can believe it, the real rate of inflation is now the highest that it has ever been in the entire modern history of the United States.

The term “meltdown” comes to mind, but I don’t think that completely captures what we are facing either. Of course Joe Biden says he has a plan, and he insists that reducing inflation is his “top economic priority”…"President Biden, reacting to April’s consumer price index Wednesday, acknowledged that inflation is “unacceptably high,” and maintained that lowering prices for American families is his “top economic priority,” while again blaming the surging numbers on COVID-19 and Russian President Vladimir Putin."

Meanwhile, tens of millions of ordinary Americans continue to deeply suffer as prices spiral out of control. Earlier today, I was stunned to see that even CNN is admitting that some Americans are “skipping meals” these days in order to make ends meet…"The price of groceries, gas, rent and utilities has marched higher over the past year; but wages have not kept up - and more than half of single parents make less than $15 an hour, according to recent research from Oxfam. That has left many single parents skipping meals so their children have plenty of food, providing less healthy meals for their families, and culling expenses to the point where any unforeseen cost could mean more debt - or worse."

If people are skipping meals already, what will things be like a year from now when economic conditions are even worse? Most people don’t realize this, but we are extremely vulnerable. When the next major downturn strikes, millions upon millions of Americans will be instantly wiped out.

According to a report that was just released, almost two-thirds of all Americans are currently living paycheck to paycheck…"As of March, close to two-thirds, or 64%, of the U.S. population was living paycheck to paycheck, just shy of the high of 65% in 2020, according to a LendingClub report. “The number of people living paycheck to paycheck today is reminiscent of the early days of the pandemic and it has become the dominant lifestyle across income brackets,” said Anuj Nayar, LendingClub’s financial health officer."

Living on the edge is fine as long as a paycheck keeps coming in like clockwork. But if things suddenly shift, millions upon millions of Americans could suddenly find themselves plunged into poverty.

Before I end this article, I would be remiss if I did not mention the fact that financial markets were way down yet again today. In fact, the Nasdaq dropped another 3 percent. But the big news is what is happening to the cryptocurrency industry. Cryptos are crashing harder than Hunter Biden after a drug-fueled night with a Chinese hooker, and Coinbase is coming apart like a 20 dollar suit…

"The cryptocurrency brokerage reported a first-quarter loss late Tuesday and revenue that fell 27% from a year ago, missing Wall Street’s forecasts. Coinbase shares plummeted nearly 25% in early trading Wednesday morning and hit their lowest level ever. Coinbase stock is now down more than 75% this year and is trading nearly 85% below its all-time high price from November. Shares have lost more than half their value in just the past week alone."

If you have money with Coinbase, you may want to consider your options, because it is being reported that “users might lose all the cryptocurrency stored in their accounts” if Coinbase actually goes bankrupt…"Hidden away in Coinbase Global’s disappointing first-quarter earnings report - in which the U.S.’s largest cryptocurrency exchange reported a quarterly loss of $430 million and a 19% drop in monthly users - is an update on the risks of using Coinbase’s service that may come as a surprise to its millions of users. In the event the crypto exchange goes bankrupt, Coinbase says, its users might lose all the cryptocurrency stored in their accounts too."

I was absolutely floored when I first read that. Right now, Coinbase is holding more than 250 billion dollars worth of assets for its customers, and there is a danger that all of it could become “inaccessible”… "Coinbase said in its earnings report Tuesday that it holds $256 billion in both fiat currencies and cryptocurrencies on behalf of its customers. Yet the exchange noted that in the event it ever declared bankruptcy, “the crypto assets we hold in custody on behalf of our customers could be subject to bankruptcy proceedings.” Coinbase users would become “general unsecured creditors,” meaning they have no right to claim any specific property from the exchange in proceedings. Their funds would become inaccessible."

So there are some people out there that currently believe that they are crypto millionaires that could literally end up with nothing. At this point, the crypto industry is in the process of melting down. But so are the financial markets. And so is the overall economy.

The great unraveling that we have been warned about is here, and we are still only in the early chapters. I would greatly encourage you to protect your assets while you still can. A rush for the exits has now begun, and you don’t want to be caught holding the bag."

- http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

○

Related:

"Crypto Carnage Continues As Stablecoin Crisis Spreads To Tether"

The market capitalization of the world's cryptocurrencies crashed over "$200 billion overnight, back below $1.5 trillion - its lowest since July 2021 and almost 50% down from its $3 trillion highs in Nov 2021."

○

"The Current State Of The U.S. Economy?" he asks...

"The U.S. Is Close To A ‘Cost-of-Living Crisis’: 

Two-thirds of Americans Live Paycheck to Paycheck!"

Gregory Mannarino, "When There Is Fear In The Markets, It's Time To Strike"

Your guide...

Gregory Mannarino, AM 5/12/22:

"When There Is Fear In The Markets, It's Time To Strike"

- https://traderschoice.net/

○

Live updates:

- https://www.marketwatch.com/market-data

"Fate. Luck. Chance"

"That is life, isn't it? Fate. Luck. Chance. A long series of what-ifs that lead from one moment to the next, time never pausing for you to catch your breath, to make sense of the cards that have been handed to you. And all you can do is play your cards and hope for the best, because in the end, it all comes back to those three basics. Fate. Luck. Chance."

- Kelseyleigh Reber

"Unless, of course, there's no such thing as chance, in which case we should either - optimistically - get up and cheer, because if everything is planned in advance, then we all have a meaning and are spared the terror of knowing ourselves to be random, without a why; or else, of course, we might - as pessimists - give up right here and now, understanding the futility of thought-decision-action, since nothing we think makes any difference anyway, things will be as they will. Where, then, is optimism? In fate or in chaos?"

- Salman Rushdie

"More Inconvenience Stickers At Kroger! What's Coming? What's Next?"

Full screen recommended.

Adventures with Danno, 5/12/22:

"More Inconvenience Stickers At Kroger!

 What's Coming? What's Next?"

"In today's vlog we are at Kroger, and are noticing inconvenience stickers everywhere! The last time we saw this many, there was a major food shortage. For the past few weeks we have seen a steady increase in food prices around the country. In addition we are also seeing a lot more empty shelves. It's getting rough out here as stores continue to struggle to get in products."

"How It Really Is"

 

"Fatherly Inspiration Key To Learning The Art Of Grace"

For Kimmy... and all of us.

"Fatherly Inspiration Key To Learning The Art Of Grace"

by Tom Purcell

"After all these years, my dad inspires me still. As I write this, the almost 89-year-old fellow is fighting to get back onto his feet as stenosis, bad knees and general old age are wearing him down. But though his body shows wear and tear, his mind remains as agile as his sense of humor. And as he fights his daily battles he continues to inspire his children.

The old saying “actions speak louder than words” applies perfectly to my dad. He never was much for talking, but he is the biggest action figure I’ve ever known. He worked long, hard hours every day at Bell Telephone and took overtime work almost every holiday I can remember to provide for us the best way he knew how.

He never did much for himself. His greatest indulgences included a weekly case of Pabst Blue Ribbon and keeping a $5 bill in his wallet so he could get hot coffee on cold days. His actions spoke clearly to his kids: “I’m not a sophisticated man, but I love you with all my heart and I will always take care of you.”

When he spoke actual words, he always began with three: “For Godsakes, Betty…” Betty is his preferred name for my mother, Elizabeth. He met her in high school when he was 16. He told me again last week he knew immediately he would marry her and they did marry five years later. Now they have six children, 17 grandchildren and nine great grandchildren.

Marriage is hard. Family is hard. Our clan wasn’t spared the challenges, setbacks and disagreements every family faces. But the one constant that got us through is that my father deeply loves my mother. He dotes on her. He’s lost without her. After more than 70 years together, my dad told me his heart still beats fast when my mother walks into the room - that they still hold hands every single night as they fall asleep.

A child is the last person on Earth to accurately evaluate his parents’ relationship. Theirs is intense and sometimes confusing to us - but, goodness, they love each other. That is one of the best gifts parents can give their kids. My parents gave us a genuine love story - and here I am at 60 and they’re sharing their love story with me still.

And my father is inspiring me still. He’s in pain every day. The most basic tasks are becoming harder. Sometimes, the frustration gets to him, but most days he displays incredible grace as he jokes, “Getting old ain’t for the weak!”

I share his influence on me because I know how important he has been in shaping me and my sisters into the people we are. I think of all of the kids, particularly boys, who are getting into trouble because they do not have a father whose actions could inspire and guide them to positive outcomes in life.

My sisters and I are not perfect, but we work hard to be good people and good spouses, parents and neighbors. And now, as our parents age, it is our turn to repay them - our turn for our actions to be louder than our words by showing: “We’re not sophisticated people, but we love you with all our heart and we will always take care of you.”

- https://www.cagle.com/

“10 Things You Should Know About Life’s Most Important Questions”

“10 Things You Should Know About Life’s 

Most Important Questions”

by Marc Chernoff

“It’s a harsh fact that every one of us is ignorant in some way. Although we tend to pretend otherwise, it’s impossible to know it all. Ignorance is our biggest collective secret. And it’s one of the scariest and most damaging realities of life, because those of us who are most ignorant – and thus most likely to spread ignorance – are also the ones who often don’t know it.

Here’s a quick test: If you have never changed your mind about one of your learned beliefs, if you have never questioned the fundamentals of your opinions, and if you have no inclination to do so, then you are likely ignorant about something you think you know.

What’s the quickest solution? Get outside and find someone who, in your opinion, believes, behaves, and handles certain aspects of life very differently from you, and just have a simple, honest conversation with them. I promise, some of life’s most important questions will become clearer by doing so. And it will do both of you lots of good. Once you’ve done that, here are some key things to remember:

1. Many of the biggest misunderstandings in life could be avoided if we would simply take the time to ask, “What else could this mean?”

2. An expert is not a person who gives all the right answers; she’s the one who asks the right questions. (Be aware of emotional manipulation.)

3. Very few of us actively seek new knowledge in this world on a daily basis. We get comfortable with what we know, and we stop questioning things. On the contrary, we try to squeeze from the unknown the answers we have already shaped in our own minds – judgments, justifications, validations, forms of consolation without which we might feel incomplete or off-center. To really ask something new is to open the door to the storm.  And the answer just may blow us away.

4. If someone can get you asking the wrong questions, they don’t have to worry about how they answer you.

5. Monsters do exist in the real world, but they are too few in number to be truly dangerous in the long run. More dangerous are the common people with good intentions who are instantly ready to believe and act without asking questions.

6. At the end of the day, the questions you ask of yourself determine the type of person you will become.

7. Courage doesn’t happen when you have all the answers. It happens when you are ready to face the questions you have been avoiding your whole life. 

8. When it comes to your relationships: Does he/she treat you with respect at all times? That’s the first question. The second question is: If he/she remains the exact same person ten years from now, would you still want to be in a relationship with him/her? And finally, does he/she inspire to be a better human being? When you find someone that you can answer yes to all three questions, you know you’ve found yourself a relationship worth having.

9. Regardless of how much you know, or how many incredible questions you ask, you can never know it all. To believe that you do, is proof of the contrary. The wilderness around us always holds answers to more questions than we have yet learned to ask. And that’s a beautiful thing.

10. Although life will always be filled with unanswered questions, it’s the courage to seek the answers that counts – this journey is what gives life meaning.  Ultimately, you can spend your life wallowing in frustration and misery, wondering why you were the one who was chosen to deal with your problems, or you can be grateful that you are strong enough and smart enough to grow from them. 

Your turn: Be present and have patience with everything that remains unexplained in your heart and mind. Try to love life’s questions. Like locked doors or like good books written in foreign languages, respect their nature. Don’t expect all the answers to come easy. They cannot be given to you right now because your present understanding isn’t ready yet. It’s a question of experiencing everything first. Right now you need to hold on to the questions – explore, learn, and live your life. Perhaps, as you do, you will gradually find yourself experiencing the answers you always wanted.

So with that said, which of the reminders above hit home the most? Why? Leave a comment below and share your thoughts and insights with us.”

- http://www.marcandangel.com/

The Poet: Czeslaw Milosz, “Hope”

“Hope”

“Hope is with you when you believe

The earth is not a dream but living flesh,

That sight, touch, and hearing do not lie,

That all things you have ever seen here

Are like a garden looked at from a gate.

You cannot enter. But you’re sure it’s there.

Could we but look more clearly and wisely

We might discover somewhere in the garden

A strange new flower and an unnamed star.

Some people say we should not trust our eyes,

That there is nothing, just a seeming,

These are the ones who have no hope.

They think that the moment we turn away,

The world, behind our backs, ceases to exist,

As if snatched up by the hands of thieves.”

- Czeslaw Milosz,

“Hope”, from “The World”

"We All Got Problems..

"We all got problems. But there's a great book out called "Too Soon Old, Too Late Smart." Did you see that? That book says the statute of limitations has expired on all childhood traumas. Get your stuff together and get on with your life, man. Stop whinin'about what's wrong, because everybody's had a rough time, in one way or another."

- Quincy Jones

○

"If the sun is shining, stand in it, yes, yes, yes. Happy times are great, but happy times pass - they have to, because time passes. The pursuit of happiness is more elusive; it is life-long, and it is not goal-centered. What you are pursuing is meaning, a meaningful life, and there are times when it will go so wrong that you will be barely alive, and times when you realize that being barely alive, on your own terms, is better than living a bloated half-life on someone else's terms."

- Jeanette Winterson

"The War Against Will"

"The War Against Will"

by Paul Rosenberg

"The modern world will allow you to join any of a thousand collectives, but it will punish you for standing on your own, as a self-willed entity. People who commit this crime understand that they are outlaws in the present world. And if at first they don’t understand that, the world makes sure they know.

The world as it is, then, is the enemy of will. This is nothing new, of course, governments have been at war against will since they began: How else can you get people to blindly obey you, to hand over half their income, and to thank you for it? People who possess a full and active will must be convinced to do things, and governments couldn’t function if they had to do that.

The present world is built around the restraint of will, and not just on the government level. Advertising, for example, is more or less devoted to implanting subconscious desires and subverting the will with them. In dysfunctional families, manipulating one another – whether by guilt, ridicule, being left out of Papa’s will or whatever – is the currency of the realm.

And so obedience, consumption and acquiescence have become cardinal virtues, and the avoidance of immediate pain the prime directive. As we might paraphrase an old apostle, this world’s God is the belly.

The Willful, For Whom Heaven And Earth Were Created: All human creativity functions on individual will. Everyone interested in creativity knows this, and here are just a couple of passages to make the point:

"Everything that is really great and inspiring is

created by the individual who can labor in freedom."

- Albert Einstein

"This I believe: that the free, exploring mind of the

individual human is the most valuable thing in the world."

- John Steinbeck

It is the active will of individuals that has created everything good in this world. Really, life comes down to a choice between creativity and entropy:

• The world (the realm of officialdom, acquiescence and so on) is an incarnation of entropy, winding down and collapsing once the fuel left to it by creative men and women of the past is burned out.

• The creatives, who are willing to take blows in defense of their willfulness, and who bless the world in myriad ways

The willful, then, are creativity incarnate; the universe is and ought to be dedicated to beings of their type. It should also be populated by beings of their type, and I think someday shall be. This is not to say that entropic people can’t make their way out of entropy and join the creatives; in fact they can, and do, on a daily basis. Still, it is a gulf that must be crossed, and the only way across is to act on one’s own will, alone, and for purely self-generated reasons. That is the price.

The Automated War On Will: The great threat of the modern world is a system I call Descartes’ Demon, the Big Data/AI personalized manipulation system that is already in daily use. I held back talking about this for years, seeing that it was too much for people to bear, but the beast has progressed so far that I can’t see holding back any further.

The Matrix, as it turns out, was all too true, and its world is now the world of Facebook, Twitter and especially Google. The real-life version of The Matrix is functional, right now. (See here for explanation, or here for illustration.) What personalized manipulation is really all about is the subversion of individual will. And if you don’t think it’s happening, pull up YouTube on your smart phone, then ask your friend to pull it up on his or hers: You’re already receiving personalized pages. The world is deeply committed to passing this off as trivial and ridiculing those that don’t. But it isn’t trivial; it’s a present and actual war against free will.

We Are Inherently Creative: Humans are inherently creative beings. We cannot create matter out of nothing, but we can mold it to an infinite number and variety of uses. We are the fountains of new and beneficial action in the universe. And we ought to function that way.

I’ll leave you with a few words from Albert Schweitzer: "Civilization can only revive when there shall come into being in a number of individuals a new tone of mind independent of the one prevalent among the crowd and in opposition to it… It is only an ethical movement which can rescue us from the slough of barbarism, and the ethical comes into existence only in individuals." This is what we need… and we need it now."

- https://freemansperspective.com/

•

Full screen recommended.

"They Live"

Those who know, know...

•

"This I Believe...

“This I believe: That the free, exploring mind of the individual

human is the most valuable thing in the world.

And this I would fight for:

the freedom of the mind to take any direction it wishes, undirected.

And this I must fight against:

any idea, religion, or government which limits or destroys the individual.”

- John Steinbeck

Bill Bonner, "Pilot Error"

"Pilot Error"

by Bill Bonner

Youghal, Ireland - "According to analyst Ed Yardeni the average American family is now spending $3,000 more per year for food and fuel. Here’s the report from Fox News: "Gas prices hit a new all-time high on May 10, 2022, amid rising inflation and President Biden's restrictions on oil and gas production. According to AAA's average gas price calculator, the national average cost of a regular gallon of gasoline hit $4.374 on Tuesday, the highest since September 2014, when the average monthly cost hit $3.387."

According to Yardeni Research, increased oil costs suggest the average American household will pay almost $2,000 more for gasoline in 2022, according to a March research note. "In addition, we estimate that the average household is currently spending at least $1,000 [according to a seasonally adjusted annual rate] more on food as a result of rapidly rising grocery prices," Edward Yardeni, the president of the firm, wrote on LinkedIn. "That’s $3,000 less money that households have to spend on other consumer goods and services, which also are experiencing rapid price increases."

There are some 400 Ph.D. economists on the Fed payroll. Did any of them foresee the obvious consequences of printing up trillions of dollars’ worth of new money? Apparently not. Did any of them mention that it would make most Americans poorer?

But wait. Their job is not to speak truth to the powerful Fed governors, but to protect them from it. Armed with jackass theories and overblown conceits… they stand guard at the temple door. Like the vestal virgins, Fed governors are unblemished by the carnal facts of real life… untested by the give and take of real world commerce… uninstructed by the bid and ask of a real market economy. And with their own back-up team of like-minded Ph.Ds on the job, they never have to get a real job… never have to mingle with real businessmen… or sup with real investors.

Unhinged from Reality: Their imaginations, untethered by real world experience, are thus free to believe whatever they want… no matter how absurd. Such as...the idealness of 2% inflation (a total fantasy… supported neither by theory nor experience) …or the doctrine of data dependence (otherwise known as ‘driving by looking in the rear-view mirror’), which is how the Fed ran into 9% inflation. ‘Who could have seen that coming,’ they ask one another. But Fed governors were almost the only ones who didn’t see it coming.

In today’s news we find Loretta Mester again, the Fed governor we spotlighted yesterday. Ms. Mester has no idea whether inflation is coming or going. Here’s Bloomberg on the story: "Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said she favors half-point interest-rate increases but would support bigger increments later if inflation doesn’t ease by the second half of the year.

“We don’t rule out 75 forever, right? The cadence we’re going now seems about right to me,” Mester said during an interview on Bloomberg Television with Michael McKee on Tuesday. “We’re going to have to assess whether inflation is actually moving down, and then we’ll be able to get more information after we do a couple of those to see,” she said, referring to 50 basis-point hikes."

That’s ‘data dependence.’ You spend your whole career on the Fed payroll, pretending you know what you’re doing… and then, when it becomes clear that you’ve made a mess of the economy, you try a little rate increase… and see what happens!

And there’s the ‘wealth effect.’ Behind it is the notion that if you can make some people richer, they will spend more money… and then the wealth will ‘trickle down’ to the rest of the population. But the whole idea is transparently ridiculous. If you could make some people richer… why not just make everybody richer? And if you can’t make people richer (which the Fed surely can’t), pretending to make them wealthier (by manipulating their stock prices, or their house prices, for example) is just a scam. There is no real wealth that can trickle anywhere… just fake wealth dripping like water from a leaky roof, rotting the whole house. And then, inevitably, the gimmie/stimmies come to an end and it’s pay-back time. Spending goes down… and the “The Wealth Effect” becomes a “Poverty Effect.”

Now we see the elegant symmetry of real life, when those who got what they oughtn’t to have gotten get no more… and the awkward, distorted economy – as heavy as a freight train… as clumsy as a barge – comes in for a landing.

Wipe Out! Households are already upping their credit card and mortgage debt… desperately trying to maintain the standard of living to which the feds made them accustomed. The most richly-priced stocks are falling… 20%... 40%... 50%, while the flakey memes, NFTs, and cryptos are getting wiped out completely.

That is when we ask: what lever does Ms. Mester pull now? What dial does she turn to avoid a hard landing? As we explored last week, the problem is the metaphor. Fed governors see themselves as the press portrays them – expert pilots tasked with bringing the giant US economy down to earth without spilling a single drink in the first class section.

But not everything is as simple as flying a plane. When you have an argument with your wife, for example, there are no wheels you can turn or throttles you can open up to fix it. Nor are you likely to find a technical solution to the problems of laziness, stupidity, greed, vulgarity, ignorance or bad taste. Each one must be addressed in its own way.

A better metaphor for describing the Fed’s dilemma is this: The Fed wanted to liven up the party. As we saw yesterday, Ms. Mester and other Fed governors wanted higher rates of inflation. So, to get people moving, they set fire to the house. It was fun for a while... the flames gaily dancing in the living room…a warm glow in the parlor. But now the blaze is out of control. Instead of 2% inflation, they got almost 9%. And so now the Fed is faced with a challenge: putting out the conflagration without damaging the furniture.

It tossed a glass of water towards the flames last week. Next quarter, it may try another .05% rate increase. And then, maybe another spritzer in the third quarter… and so on… Until… still looking in the rear-view mirror… finally… Ms. Mester sees the house burnt to the ground."

- https://bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com/

"Do Not Buy A House Today; Stock Market Crashing; Inflation Ravages Households; Consumer Debt Surges"

Full screen recommended.

Jeremiah Babe, 5/11/22:

"Do Not Buy A House Today; Stock Market Crashing; 

Inflation Ravages Households; Consumer Debt Surges"

"Housing Bubble Threatens To Trigger 50% Property Value Drop As Mortgage Rates Soar"

Full screen recommended.

"Housing Bubble Threatens To Trigger 50%

 Property Value Drop As Mortgage Rates Soar"

by Epic Economist

"Nearly 14 years after the last housing bubble burst, inflated property values are about to face a brutal drop as rising mortgage rates and worsening affordability cool off the boom that sent home prices up by a staggering 34% over the past two years. According to the latest estimates, at least half of that gain can be lost this year as changing market conditions inevitably trigger a national home price correction. Homeowners are getting increasingly burdened by their loan payments, while first-time buyers simply can’t enter the market anymore. At this point, over 90% of the market is extremely overvalued, and experts are telling us that even a 10% crash would throw the U.S. economy into disarray.

According to the Moody’s Analytics proprietary analysis of U.S. housing markets, local income levels cannot support local home prices in 96% of housing markets across the country. This means that most local housing markets in the United States are currently at risk of a home price correction. Of the 392 metropolitan statistical areas the firm looked at, 376 are extremely overvalued. Among those 392 markets, 149 are overvalued by at least 25%, with the most overvalued being Boise, where home prices are 73% above what fundamentals would support.

On top of that, over the past two months, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has spiked from 3.11% to 5.48%. Considering today’s extremely inflated prices, a 10% crash in the most overvalued markets would be more than enough to push the U.S. economy over the edge. Worse than that, it could set off a national home price correction that would hamper the market’s growth for years, if not decades. However, the firm’s estimates indicate that prices will likely plunge by 15%, reversing the past two year’s gains by more than 50%.

Right now, the average mortgage payment is $1,800 a month, which is 70% higher than before the health crisis hit. The only other time home payments were as high as they are today was in 2007 – right on the eve of the 2008 bubble burst and the Great Financial Crisis. Today, loan-to-income levels are rising just as it happened back then. This imbalance makes defaults more likely. “When a correction occurs, and home prices drop, borrowers will start to be pushed underwater with unpaid loans more outstanding than the house's value. They will walk away as millions of borrowers did in 2008 and 2009,” explains financial and economic writer Stephen Moore.

When the housing market peaks is like a runaway freight train without brakes. But when it runs out of power, things tend to derail very quickly. From one day to the other, multiple-offer listings become “for sale” signs that sit followed by price cuts. “Then, rather than chasing prices higher, prospective buyers wait to see how low price will go,” as highlighted by Investment Research Dynamics in a recent report.

The latest pulse reading is already showing signs of a major shift. The number of home sellers who dropped their asking price shot up to a six-month high of 15% during a four-week period ending on May 1 - up from 9% a year earlier. Given that most Americans live paycheck to paycheck and are already financially squeezed due to prices rising faster than paychecks, we can expect the downward trend for prices to accelerate from now on. The thing about bubbles is that they can only grow to a certain point before they break. And it is more than clear that we’re reaching a breaking point."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com/

"Celente & the Judge: Biden’s $40B to Ukraine - Better Spent Shoveling the Money into a Fireplace"

Full screen recommended.

"Celente & the Judge: Biden’s $40B to Ukraine - 

Better Spent Shoveling the Money into a Fireplace"

"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

- https://trendsresearch.com/