"The Ruble and The Realpolitik"

"The Ruble and The Realpolitik"

by Addison Wiggin

“It's all very well for us to sit here in the west with our high incomes and cushy lives, and say it's immoral to violate the sovereignty of another state. But if the effect of that is to bring people in that country economic and political freedom, to raise their standard of living, to increase their life expectancy, then don't rule it out.”

- Niall Ferguson

"Let’s see, where were we? Of course, Yesterday, we established that the Fed is handcuffed. If they even “normalize” interest rates to 3% they could “nuke the economy.” “I cannot help but notice,” reader John L. from Australia writes in response, “the sanctions against Russia and their response of raising interest rates to 20% can only set the Russians up for a much better long term future than the West with their refusal to set a real money interest rate.”

The Central Bank of Russia did, in fact, raise its benchmark rate to 20% – the highest in almost twenty years – up from 9.5% on Monday. They are trying to accomplish the first goal of a central: defend the nation’s currency.

Until the invasion, Russian banks and economy were fully integrated into the Western system. Amid a storm of moral opprobrium and a host of international sanctions, the Russian ruble dropped to its lowest point since the financial crisis they endured in 1998. “The ruble has been reduced to ‘rubble’,” Joe Biden lauded.

Not so fast, in response the Russians said “okay, if you want our natural gas, Europe, you’re going to have to pay us in rubles.” Before you buy gas in rubles, you have to exchange your euros for them. That and the rate increase have boosted the ruble back to pre-invasion levels.

“What’s become clear is that despite an incredibly wide-ranging package of sanctions on the Russian government and its oligarchs, and an exodus of foreign businesses,” Bloomberg reports, “the actions are largely toothless if foreigners keep guzzling Russian oil and natural gas -- supporting the ruble by stocking Putin’s coffers.” Germany for example sends €2.6 billion a month to Russia for oil and gas imports. Much of those energy supplies still flow through the Ukraine. Many of the Ukrainian oligarchs still have a vested interest in letting the supplies flow.

Will the ruble rebound set Russia up for success in the “long-term,” as our Australian correspondent asks. To quote our buddy, Sean Ring, from the Rude Awakening, “that remains to be seen.” New Western Sanctions have been announced. But it’s too early to tell if Russian and Chinese efforts to bifurcate the global economy will be successful.

If all you do is gobble up the Western narrative, the Russians are isolated from the global economy and will eventually have to bend to the will of the Western mob. Of course, nothing’s that simple. What is it the mainstream press doesn’t want you to know?

That’s a provocative question; one we posed to our latest Wiggin Sessions guest: “America, the unchallenged global superpower itself, has taken the last 30 years, since the USSR dissolved, to extend its political and military empire to the four corners of the earth.” There's more from Scott Horton, here:

Scott Horton is the editorial director of Anti-war.com and founder of the Libertarian Institute. In our session Scott riffs through 30 years of foreign policy mistakes that the U.S. and much of the West has conveniently forgotten. How is it the mob has adapted such a high moral stance? What is it that Americans are missing? You may wonder the same after you take a listen by clicking on the image above. If your druthers are to read, you’ll find a link to the transcript there, too"

"Follow your bliss..."

- WigginSessions@email.5minforecast.com

Gregory Mannarino, "Pentagon Says: 'War Could Last For Years.' FED: 'No Recession Coming.' Consumer Debt Skyrockets"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 4/7/22:

"Pentagon Says: 'War Could Last For Years.' 

FED: 'No Recession Coming.' Consumer Debt Skyrockets"

- https://traderschoice.net/

The Daily "Near You?"

Wasilla, Alaska, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Isochronic Tones: Cognition Enhancer For Clearer and Faster Thinking"

"Isochronic Tones:

Cognition Enhancer For Clearer and Faster Thinking"

by Jason Lewis

“Headphones Required – Note: As this session stimulates each ear with different frequencies, you will need to use headphones to experience the full effect. Alternative background sounds available on Mp3 here: Orchestral, Hybrid, World Music, Rain, Brown Noise.

What does this track do? This session stimulates Beta, SMR and Alpha, alternating in 2 minute increments to help keep the user relaxed and engaged. Note: SMR (sensorimotor rhythm) relates to the frequency range between 12 – 15Hz. It’s associated with sensory processing and motor control. Stimulating this can result in relaxed focus and improved attention. This session is meant to speed up the brain while keeping the left hemisphere dominant (good for attention, concentration and reducing emotional response and hyperactivity). ADD and similar disorders are often characterized by “slow-wave” EEG patterns, particularly in the left frontal region. As such, this session stimulates the left brain hemisphere with Beta frequencies and the right with SMR.

Can it be used to help with studying and if so, when should you listen to it? Yes, it can be helpful to use while studying, and if you read through the many comments about this track, you’ll see that many people have successfully used it for studying. You can either listen to it while you are studying, to get your brain into a good mental state when you need it. Or if you are someone that gets a bit distracted by music while studying, listen to it just before you begin.

How Loud Should The Volume Be? There is varying advice and opinions on the impact of volume with brainwave entrainment, with some saying the louder it is the more impact it has. From my own experience, my advice is to play it at a volume level you feel comfortable with. The main thing to consider is that it should be loud enough to hear the repetitive isochronic tones, so you don’t want it so quiet you can hardly hear them. But you also don’t want it so loud that its uncomfortable for you. Somewhere in the middle is my recommendation.

Use this session in the morning or afternoon, to train your brain for better cognition, such as clearer and faster thinking. You can either sit somewhere quiet and comfortable with your eyes closed and give your brain a nice workout, or you can also listen to this while doing an activity that requires a boost in concentration, like studying.

How long should you listen for to get a good effect? It takes around 6 minutes for your brainwaves to fall in step with the tones and become entrained. It then takes time to be guided along the frequency range used in the track. Listening to about half way through is the minimum in my opinion, but 30 minutes is the optimum and preferred length to listen for.

IMPORTANT RECOMMENDATIONS:

• Drink some water – Make sure you are well hydrated before listening to brainwave entrainment.

WHY? Your brain is made up of around 75% water, so it needs plenty of water to function well. When you stimulate your brain in this way, you’re increasing electrical activity and blood flow in the brain and giving your brain a good workout, so it can be a good idea to drink before listening, so that your brain can fire on all cylinders.

• It is not recommended to listen to this while driving or operating machinery.

WHY? Brainwave entrainment involves a process of stimulating your brainwaves and changing your mental state. While this is safe to do and use in normal situations, it can sometimes zone you out during the track, as you focus in on the sound of the tones. This could result in you being distracted temporarily, which is not a good thing while you’re driving or operating machinery. Some people also experience tingling and other sensations from the stimulation. While that might feel quite nice sitting in a comfortable chair at home, it could cause you to be distracted while driving and result in an accident.

• It is not recommended to listen to this while under the influence of drugs or alcohol, or any mind altering substance.

WHY? When your brain is under the influence of drugs or alcohol it’s not operating to it’s full capacity, and you react differently to stimulation and situations, compared to when you are sober. So as a precaution and because I don’t know how you will react in that situation, I recommend you do not use it in that situation.

• Who should NOT listen to this audio? Those who should not listen to this video/audio include: Those who are prone to or have had seizures, epilepsy, pregnant or wear a pacemaker should NOT listen to this video/audio.

WHY? There is insufficient research data in this area, so as a precaution, if you are among the categories listed above, I would recommend you consult a doctor or medical professional before listening to this video/audio.”

- http://www.mindamend.com/

The Poet: Linda Pastan, “What We Want”

“What We Want”

“What we want

is never simple.

We move among the things

we thought we wanted:

a face, a room, an open book

and these things bear our names-

now they want us.

But what we want appears

in dreams, wearing disguises.

We fall past,

holding out our arms

and in the morning

our arms ache.

We don’t remember the dream,

but the dream remembers us.

It is there all day

as an animal is there

under the table,

as the stars are there

even in full sun.”

- Linda Pastan

"And The Hell Of It Is..."

“You go up to a man, and you say, “How are things going, Joe?” and he says, “Oh fine, fine... couldn’t be better.” And you look into his eyes, and you see things really couldn’t be much worse. When you get right down to it, everybody’s having a perfectly lousy time of it, and I mean everybody. And the hell of it is, nothing seems to help much.”

- Kurt Vonnegut

"People are sad. People are broke. People are worried about money, people are worried that they're not enough and not amounting to anything and they don't feel good about themselves. People have rough times, and everybody's pretending it's not true, and we need to break that veneer."

- Eve Ensler

"All I Wanna Do..."

"Angel: Well, I guess I kinda worked it out. If there's no great glorious end to all this, if nothing we do matters... then all that matters is what we do. 'Cause that's all there is. What we do. Now. Today. I fought for so long, for redemption, for a reward, and finally just to beat the other guy, but I never got it.

Kate Lockley: And now you do?

Angel: Not all of it. All I wanna do is help. I wanna help because, I don't think people should suffer as they do. Because, if there's no bigger meaning, then the smallest act of kindness is the greatest thing in the world.

Kate Lockley: Yikes. It sounds like you've had an epiphany.

Angel: I keep saying that, but nobody's listening."

"Angel", 2001

- http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0512846/quotes

"Mourning The Loss Of A Loved One Is Not A Disease"

"Mourning The Loss Of A Loved One Is Not A Disease"

by Dick Polman

"My wife of 45 years died six months ago this week. I have been processing her loss ever since. But the American Psychiatric Association now says that I have only six more months to heal myself, and that if I blow the deadline, I should be clinically defined as mentally diseased.

It’s not in my nature to use this column for personal business. But the APA’s decision to add “prolonged grief” (defined as one year or more) to its Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders strikes me as a ludicrous attempt to reboot natural bereavement as a disease. And once you’re diagnosed with this newly created disorder, I bet there will be meds to make it all better.

I can’t speak for other grieving souls, and, granted, I’m still a newbie. But I’ll hazard a guess that most people in similar straits fail to reorient their emotional framework within one year’s time. Heck, some people conclude their time on earth without ever finding a modicum of peace. We, the walking wounded, are grappling with life’s worst disorders, navigating at our disparate speeds. That doesn’t mean we’re “sick.”

Six months after my own heart was gutted, I seem to be an everyday functioning person. But there’s no way that I can clear the APA’s one-year hurdle. When Oct. 3, 2022 comes and goes, I’m quite sure I will meet the association’s new definition of diseased. I’ll still feel pained when I hear a song that my wife and I loved. I’ll still feel pained when I try to watch new seasons of a show that she never got to finish. I’ll still sit with a book and zone out about some shared moment 30 years past. I’ll still keep the “peasant dress” that she wore on our first New Year’s Eve. I’ll still hear echoes of her doctors talking in code (“it’s a tricky case” and “it’s a complicated case,” which meant she was doomed). At odd moments I’ll still hear her voice (“Oh, Rick?”) summoning me to her sickbed. At odd moments I’ll still feel lost in time and space. But I won’t see any of that as illness.

I’m sure there are extreme cases of grief that do require medical treatment, but, as NYU psychiatry professor Benjamin Sadock points out, “In rare instances, prolonged grief progresses to depression, a well-recognized disorder that encompasses all of the symptoms of the ‘new’ diagnosis of prolonged grief, a disorder that is unnecessary, unwarranted, and one that may stigmatize those so diagnosed.”

Devyn Greenberg, a grad student who lost her dad to COVID writes: “It’s not just personal indignation that stirs me about the (APA’s) decision. I worry for others who have loved and lost – at some point, all of us. I worry that this framing will render us even lonelier in our pain, even more convinced that our nonlinear, unpredictable paths through loss are ‘wrong’…Many of the symptoms the psychiatric association uses to define ‘prolonged grief’ are shockingly common. ‘Intense emotional pain (e.g., anger, bitterness, sorrow)’? Let’s call that a Tuesday. ‘Identity disruption’? When you’ve walked through a portal through which you cannot return, of course your sense of self changes dramatically.”

And Martha Weinman Lear, who authored a book about loss, writes that the beneficiaries of the APA’s new diagnosis will be “pill makers.” She says: “What strikes me as abnormal is not grief beyond the APA’s one-year prescription, but the degree of chutzpah required, professional training notwithstanding, to presume to set timelines for the normal grief of others, which in fact is as various as the grievers themselves.”

The APA’s one-year deadline smacks of classic American impatience: “Get over it” and “Move on with your life.” Like the cowboy in Lonesome Dove who said, “Best thing to do with death is to ride off from it.” Um, it’s not that simple. At my six-month mark, I do feel myself “getting over it” – the worst of it anyway, but with many caveats. I do feel myself “moving on” – as best I can, but with many caveats: Is it possible to feel happy again? Is it wrong?

Bottom line: I like the Bob Dylan line, “he not busy being born is busy dying.” What you do is, you learn to live with the emotional pain. Then you cushion it with all the joy you can muster for the good things in your life – be they family, friends (old and new), work, travel, biking, hiking, whatever – because you realize that gratitude can be a powerful palliative. You accept melancholia and whenever possible you lighten it with mirth. You honor your loss and accept the fact that your old life, and all the ways your loved one enhanced it, is irrevocably over – and that it’s now incumbent to craft a new one.

Sorry, headshrinkers. I won’t need meds for that."

- https://www.cagle.com/

"How It Really Is"

Loza Alexander, "Lets Go Brandon"

"The Global Fertilizer Shortage Means That Far Less Food Will Be Grown All Over The Planet In 2022"

"The Global Fertilizer Shortage Means That Far Less

 Food Will Be Grown All Over The Planet In 2022"

by Michael Snyder

"I never imagined that I would be writing so much about fertilizer in 2022. When I was growing up, there were only two things that I knew about fertilizer. I knew that it helped stuff grow and I knew that it smelled bad. But these days, experts are telling us that a global shortage of fertilizer could result in horrifying famines all over the world. Right now, to a very large degree we are still eating food that was produced in 2021. But by the end of the year, to a very large degree we will be eating food that was produced in 2022. Unfortunately for all of us, it appears that a lack of fertilizer will mean that far less food is grown in 2022 than originally anticipated.

Thanks to an unprecedented explosion in energy prices, we were already facing a fertilizer crisis even before the war in Ukraine, but now that war has definitely taken things to the next level. Under normal conditions, a great deal of the world’s fertilizer comes from either Russia, Belarus or Ukraine… "A fertilizer shortage has added to growing concerns about the Ukraine war’s impact on the price and scarcity of certain basic foods.

Combined, Russia and Belarus had provided about 40% of the world’s exports of potash, according to Morgan Stanley. Russia’s exports were hit by sanctions. Further, in February, a major Belarus producer declared force majeure - a statement that it wouldn’t be able to uphold its contracts due to forces beyond its control. Russia also exported 11% of the world’s urea, and 48% of the ammonium nitrate. Russia and Ukraine together export 28% of fertilizers made from nitrogen and phosphorous, as well as potassium, according to Morgan Stanley."

Global hunger rose significantly in both 2020 and 2021, but what we are going to be dealing with in the months ahead is going to be completely unlike anything that we have dealt with in the past. In fact, one commodity expert that was interviewed by CNBC is extremely pessimistic about what is ahead… “All of this is a double whammy, if not a triple whammy,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. “We have geopolitical risk, higher input costs and basically shortages.”

We have never seen anything like this before. Since the beginning of 2021, some fertilizer prices have “more than doubled”, and some fertilizer prices have more than tripled…"Some fertilizers have more than doubled in price. For instance, Melek said potash traded in Vancouver was priced at about $210 per metric tons at the beginning of 2021, and it’s now valued at $565. He added that urea for delivery to the Middle East was trading at $268 per metric ton on the Chicago Board of Trade in early 2021 and was valued at $887.50 on Tuesday."

And in some parts of the globe it is even worse. In Peru, fertilizer prices have experienced an “almost fourfold” increase…"The global fertilizer squeeze exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is imperiling rice production in Peru, where the seed is a staple for tens of millions of people. Prices of the crop nutrient urea have surged almost fourfold amid supply scarcities, adding to cost inflation for growers, according to the Peruvian Association of Rice Producers." That same article goes on to explain that many farmers in Peru won’t be able to afford to plant crops at all this year.

If that sounds familiar, that is because this is something that I have been warning about for months. In particular, here in the United States it simply is not going to be profitable for many farmers to grow corn this year, because corn needs a high amount of fertilizer.

All over the world, far less fertilizer will be used in 2022, and that means that far less food will be grown. There will be famines, and one expert is even warning that food scarcity will “touch people in the lower income distribution in North America”…“We’re talking about an erosion of food security on a scale we have not seen for a long time, and I think it will touch people in the lower income distribution in North America,” he added.

But as long as you have a decent income, you will still be able to go to the store and buy food in the months ahead. It just might cost you a lot more. During a recent interview with Tucker Carlson, farmer Ben Riensche warned that Americans could soon be paying a thousand dollars more a month for their groceries…“Soaring fertilizer prices are likely to bring spiked food prices. If you’re upset that gas is up a dollar or two a gallon, wait until your grocery bill is up $1,000.00 a month, and it might not just manifest itself in terms of price. It could be quantity as well. Empty Shelf syndrome may be starting.”

Can you afford to pay $1,000 more for groceries every month? If not, you better stock up now while prices are still relatively reasonable. Of course there are certain things that you will not be able to stock up on because they simply aren’t there.

Shortages are intensifying all over the country, and in particular we have seen an alarming shortage of pasta begin to happen in certain stores. The following comes from an article that was just posted on All News Pipeline…"'First, it was Eggs and now it’s also Pasta.' The eggs have been missing for well over a week now and yesterday morning I was surprised to see the pasta was also mostly bare. Also, some of the shelves have the old COVID trick of pushing everything together and up to the front of the shelf!"

This is Sioux Fall SD! No eggs for over a week! Very little pasta left! Of course the shortage of eggs is related to the shortage of pasta, because eggs are used in making pasta.

I have been trying to explain to my readers that this new bird flu pandemic is going to be a really, really big deal. As I mentioned yesterday, 28 million chickens and turkeys are already dead in less than two months, and things are already so bad that pasta is starting to disappear from our store shelves. If things are this crazy already, what will conditions be like six months from now?

You might want to think about that. I have been trying to sound the alarm about a coming global famine for years, and now it is here. Global food riots have already started, but what we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg. Like I said at the top of this article, for now we are still eating food that was produced last year to a large degree. Just wait until we get to the end of this year and beyond. It won’t be pretty.

Unprecedented times call for unprecedented measures, and I hope that this article will give you a sense of urgency to take action. Unfortunately, most people still assume that everything will turn out just fine somehow, and so they won’t do anything to get prepared until it is far too late."

- https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/

"The Wisdom Of Erich Fromm."

“A person who has not been completely alienated, who has remained sensitive and able to feel, who has not lost the sense of dignity, who is not yet "for sale", who can still suffer over the suffering of others, who has not acquired fully the having mode of existence - briefly, a person who has remained a person and not become a thing - cannot help feeling lonely, powerless, isolated in present-day society. He cannot help doubting himself and his own convictions, if not his sanity. He cannot help suffering, even though he can experience moments of joy and clarity that are absent in the life of his "normal" contemporaries. Not rarely will he suffer from neurosis that results from the situation of a sane man living in an insane society, rather than that of the more conventional neurosis of a sick man trying to adapt himself to a sick society."

- Erich Fromm, "The Art of Being"

“If other people do not understand our behavior - so what? Their request that we must only do what they understand is an attempt to dictate to us. If this is being "asocial" or "irrational" in their eyes, so be it. Mostly they resent our freedom and our courage to be ourselves. We owe nobody an explanation or an accounting, as long as our acts do not hurt or infringe on them. How many lives have been ruined by this need to "explain," which usually implies that the explanation be "understood," i.e. approved. Let your deeds be judged, and from your deeds, your real intentions, but know that a free person owes an explanation only to himself - to his reason and his conscience - and to the few who may have a justified claim for explanation.”

- Erich Fromm, "The Art of Being"

“It is naively assumed that the fact that the majority of people share certain ideas and feelings proves the validity of these ideas and feelings. Nothing could be further from the truth. Consensual validation as such has no bearing on reason or mental health.”

- Erich Fromm

“It is naively assumed that the fact that the majority of people share certain ideas or feelings proves the validity of these ideas and feelings. Nothing is further from the truth. Consensual validation as such has no bearing on reason or mental health. Just as there is a "folie a deux" there is a folie a millions. The fact that millions of people share the same vices does not make these vices virtues, the fact that they share so many errors does not make the errors to be truths, and the fact that millions of people share the same forms of mental pathology does not make these people sane.”

- Erich Fromm, "The Sane Society"

Bill Bonner, "Into the Wild"

"Into the Wild"

by Bill Bonner

San Martin, Argentina - "Whatever else can be said about it, this must be one of the most interesting and entertaining chapters in the history of central banking. Not since John Law slipped out of Paris in 1720, leaving in the dead of night to avoid an angry mob, has there been anything like it.

Like Law, Jerome Powell has made a huge mess of things. A city slicker in the financial wilderness… with no compass to guide him, other than the Fed’s silly models and claptrap theories… he got hopelessly lost. And now he is caught… trapped, between the inflation he created… and the reckoning he was desperate to avoid.

Inflation has already returned to levels not seen since the 1970s. The Fed needs to stop printing; everybody says so. But if Powell fights inflation, the economy will collapse; it depends on ultra-low interest rates and free-flowing credit. If, on the other hand, he lets inflation rip, the dollar will die… bringing with it financial, social and political chaos.

Occasionally, a trapper or hiker will get stuck in the mountains, far from civilization. He may break a leg… or like Aron Ralston in 2003… may get his arm pinned by a falling boulder. Ralston suffered for days. Then, near death, he had a vision of himself alive… but missing an arm. The next day, he took out his penknife and hacked off his arm, saving his life.

Twice Wrong: In order to escape his trap, Jerome Powell needs to cut away 14 years’ worth of bad policy. Does he have the stomach for it? Could he endure the pain? We doubt it. But both from within the Fed and from the outside world, come hallucinations of successful surgery. Here’s JPMorgan chief, Jamie Dimon, in the Financial Times: "[Dimon] told investors he did not envy the Fed for the steps the US central bank would need to take to end its ultra-loose policies but urged it not to “worry about volatile markets unless they affect the actual economy”. “If the Fed gets it just right, we can have years of growth, and inflation will eventually start to recede. In any event, this process will cause lots of consternation and very volatile markets,” Dimon wrote."

He is wrong on both counts. After bumbling for so many years, there is no chance that the Fed will ‘get it just right.’ Nor is it possible that genuine tightening wouldn’t ‘affect the actual economy.’ Still, Powell’s compadres at the Fed press him to show a little courage. Here’s Bill Dudley, former inflation dove… now suddenly sporting sharp claws:

"Investors should pay closer attention to what Powell has said: Financial conditions need to tighten. If this doesn’t happen on its own (which seems unlikely), the Fed will have to shock markets to achieve the desired response. This would mean hiking the federal funds rate considerably higher than currently anticipated. One way or another, to get inflation under control, the Fed will need to push bond yields higher and stock prices lower."

And here’s another leading Fed voice, Lael Brainard, as reported by the Wall Street Journal: “It is of paramount importance to get inflation down,” Ms. Brainard said Tuesday at a virtual conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. “Accordingly, the committee will continue tightening monetary policy methodically through a series of interest-rate increases and by starting to reduce the balance sheet at a rapid pace as soon as our May meeting.”

As of late yesterday afternoon, the Fed was bound and determined to do what needs to be done – and less! Here’s CNN: "The Federal Reserve is ready to raise interest rates at a faster pace to get a handle on America's pervasive inflation problem, according to minutes from the central bank's March meeting released Wednesday. The minutes said “many participants” at the Fed's meeting in March noted they would have preferred a 50 basis point increase to the federal funds rate in light of high inflation."

It almost makes us feel sorry for poor Jerome Powell. He clearly doesn’t know what he is doing. He is, after all, a big city lawyer, lost in a Yellowstone of finance. No hope of rescue. No way out. And the catastrophe is underway… whether he acts or not.

Piles of Cash: The Covid Crisis caused the Fed to do a lot more of what it never should have been doing in the first place – printing money. In the last two years, its balance sheet (where the new money is tallied) rose more than it had in the entire 107 years since it was founded – by over $4 trillion.

The money was then transmitted to Wall Street by buying bonds. But the Fed’s money printing ended last month. Now, as those bonds mature, the Fed’s balance sheet shrinks and America’s money supply shrivels. Quantitative Easing has given way to Quantitative Tightening, which is a whole different thing. And we’re not talking about small amounts. In 2020, the Fed added $3 trillion of new money. Now, that money is scheduled to go away at the rate of nearly $1 trillion per year.

In other words, the Fed giveth. And unless it giveth more and more, what it gaveth will now go back whence it cometh. Along with it will go as much as $50 trillion in fake, new wealth created since 2007… and a whole credit-addled economy, including trillion-dollar federal deficits, meme stocks, buyback programs, NFTs, zombie corporations, million-dollar shacks… and much, much more.

The thought of it must trouble Jerome Powell’s sleep. But what can he do... puff up his courage… and try to remember where he packed his knife. Regards,"

- bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com

○

A Note from BPR Investment Director, Tom Dyson: This 45-year chart perfectly illustrates the Fed's conundrum. The chart shows the latest reading from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey (the blue line), which is a widely watched leading indicator of recessions. I've superimposed the Fed Funds rate (the red line.)

Notice the only other time in 45 years the Fed raised interest rates while consumer sentiment was falling as it is today was in 1979, when Paul Volker was in charge. And the result was back-to-back recessions. And consider, back then, the economy wasn't leveraged. The debt-to-gdp ratio was only 30%. (It's now 120%.) Every other time over the past 45 years when consumer sentiment was falling, the Fed was cutting rates.

What's the point? As Bill said above, the Fed is hopelessly lost. And now it is caught…trapped, between the inflation it created…and the reckoning it was desperate to avoid. How will this situation resolve itself? I don't know. But we're now very close to finding out..."

- bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com

○

"The Fed Has More Money on its Balance Sheet (8.9 trillion) 

Than the Total Value of All 401ks in the United States (7.3 trillion as of 9/21)"

"The Economy is Burning and the Fed Will Put Out the Fire Next Month"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly 4/7/22:

"The Economy is Burning and the Fed

 Will Put Out the Fire Next Month"

"People are furious over the latest student loan payment delay. The eviction moratorium in San Diego is causing huge problems for landlords. The Fed is hoping that they can do a soft landing to help all of us. It doesn’t look possible. Everything is burning and the Fed wants to put the fire out next month."

"Massive Price Increases At Kroger! What's Next? - What's Coming?"

Full screen recommended.

Adventures with Danno, 4/6/22:

"Massive Price Increases At Kroger! 

What's Next? - What's Coming?"

"In today's vlog we are at Kroger and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"

"There Is Going To Be A New World Disorder"

"There Is Going To Be A New World Disorder"

by Egon von Greyerz

“There is gonna be a new world order out there and we’ve gotta lead it!

And we gotta unite the rest of the world in doing it!”

"That is what Biden proclaimed in a recent speech. But since Biden has a tendency to get his speeches wrong, what he meant to say was: “There is gonna be a new world DIS-order out there and we’ve gotta lead it!" Sadly, as the world has heard in many speeches by the US president, he hasn’t got a clue that his “empire” is collapsing around him. But regrettably for Biden, the US isn’t an empire at all but a bankrupt nation without leadership. But even worse, the US has just in a final act of desperation not just shot itself in the foot but in the head.

Consequences: Very few, if any, of today’s world leaders understand the consequences of their actions and clearly not Biden. As the world is experiencing the end of an economic era, we are getting the leaders that we deserve and thus the appropriate ones to take the world to Armageddon. So the world is now entering the final battle, a battle with totally incompetent heads of state which will lead to everyone losing.

The route to Armageddon will be disastrous for the world. Distressed leaders will take calamitous actions, exacerbating not only their own country’s problem, but also the rest of the world’s. And that is exactly what we are seeing now with the worst possible concoction of debt deficits, currency debasement and decadence. The consequences were of course always predictable based on history. But no leader in the current era is a real student of history. And that is why the world is in such a mess.

Hyperinflation Followed By A Deflationary Depression: I have in many articles outlined the course of events that I see from here – inflation, hyperinflation, debt collapse, asset collapse, leading to economic misery and eventually to a deflationary depression. “All Hell Will Break Loose for Humanity” as I wrote in a recent article.

There will be continued migration, but probably to a lesser extent since there will be no promised lands which will offer the migrants a better life. There will be isolationism and many countries will try to close their borders.

Sadly there will also be wars, cyber, civil and even major military wars. Mankind has never for any longer period stayed away from wars and especially not in periods of economic depression and high debts. Wars are such a wonderful excuse for poor leaders both to print more money and as a blame for the misery that the people suffer.

Western dominated media and propaganda are naturally blaming Putin for the war. And many leaders including Biden want him gone.

Wars Have Built The World: Wars are of course terrible whoever starts them but as I just said, the history of the world is very much based on wars and empire building whether we talk about Persian, Roman, Han, Mongol, Ottoman, Spanish, Russian, or British empires. Many of these empires have been revered for what they achieved and still are today whilst some like the Mongol left very little positive traces for posterity.

The British Empire for example was remarkable. A small island created the biggest empire in history lasting for over 300 years and covering 26% of the world. The cultural and language influence is still significant. Very few voices are heard today requiring that the kings or emperors of those eras to be convicted for war crimes posthumously.

The US never created an empire but unprovoked attacked countries like Vietnam, Iraq, Libya and Syria. Over 300,000 civilians have been killed in these wars led by the US. Whilst virtually the whole Western world considers Putin to be a war criminal, we have not heard similar attacks on the US, UK or French leaders who were involved in the above recent wars.

Without intending to take sides, why should we have different rules or laws for different war criminals? There is clearly not a level playing field.

Cornering A Russian Bear Has Consequences: Coming back to consequences, any intelligent Western leader could have predicted Russia’s recent actions since the Maidan Revolution in Ukraine in 2014. This was when a US and Western led coup ousted the elected Ukrainian leader and government and installed a Western friendly leadership. This coup, combined with new Nato members surrounding Russia, was such a clear threat to Russia that Putin’s reaction was obvious. Cornering a Russian bear is very dangerous.

A strong Western leader and Statesman would have foreseen this and taken up negotiations with Russia. But Western leaders totally ignored all the warnings from Putin and Russia and that is why the world is not just in a mess but in a situation that is geopolitically very dangerous. Some observers argue that the current situation has been engineered by US Neocons in order to start a conflict/war with Russia.

Sanctions Have Consequences: The Roman Empire prospered for centuries due to free trade within and outside. But to sanction a country like Russia which has the world’s greatest natural resources to the extent of $75 trillion is total madness. Even worse when this sanctioned country supplies the energy of almost half of Europe, this is not just shooting yourself in the foot but in the head. See my article “A Global Monetary Inferno of Nuclear Proportions”.

This will not just lead to energy and food shortages in the West but also a massive decline in world trade as well as GDP. The CEO of BASF, the world’s largest chemical producer, said recently: “Cutting off energy from Russia will spiral Germany into its most “catastrophic economic crisis going back to the end of WWII!”

But this should not come as a surprise for students of history. At the end of major economic cycles, countries get the abysmal leaders they deserve and these leaders will show a total lack of both intelligence and statesmanship. So sadly there is not even one leader who is capable of negotiating with Putin. As a matter of fact, the US doesn’t seem to have a leader at all. And Germany’s new leader Scholz had hardly got his feet under the table before he was landed with the small problem that his country gets 55% of its natural gas from its enemy Russia. How inconvenient. Germany clearly never learnt the expression “Don’t bite off the hand that feeds you”.

Both Britain’s Boris “Partygate” Johnson and France’s “Manu” Macron can count themselves lucky that the war took the attention away from their domestic problems.

The US Financial Empire On The Road To Perdition: The US used to be a financial empire but sadly now the country is on the road to perdition. As I have pointed out many times, with the following abysmal figures the US can neither be an economic nor a moral leader of the world:

• Federal debt & deficit growing every year since 1930 (with 4 minor exceptions)

• Since 1971 Federal debt is up 60X from $500billion to $30 trillion

• Total country debt up 53X since 1971 to $90 trillion with GDP up only 22X

• Balance of payment in deficit since early 1970s

It is really astounding that the rest of the world accepts being dictated to by a country that is way past its sell-by date and can only generate false growth by printing endless amounts of worthless money. Before the 1970s the US had a strong economy with a respected currency. But since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, the US has been on a slippery slope with debt exploding and the currency collapsing.

As the chart below shows, the dollar has lost 88% in real terms (gold) since 1999 and 98% since 1971 (not shown).

The fall to ZERO is guaranteed since all currencies, without exception, have become extinct throughout history. But have we ever heard a central bank head or a president telling their people that the currency is going to become worthless due to their reckless actions? No, of course not. Firstly they don’t understand or study history and secondly no elected politician can ever tell the truth because if they did, they would never be elected.

Just remember “Tricky Dick” Nixon:

Clearly, Nixon had no understanding what happens to money when debt backs the currency rather than gold. Or did he just lie as he had the custom of doing? Regardless, he orchestrated a dollar fall (off the Matterhorn as illustrated above) of 98% with the remaining couple of percent loss down to a 100% happening in the next few years. Biden has with his current disastrous actions created the perfect climate for achieving the final 2% fall of the dollar. But remember that is a 100% fall from here.

Freezing Assets Has Consequences: By demonstrating to world central banks that the US can freeze any country’s foreign exchange reserves held outside their country, the world financial system and central bankers have learnt a lesson that will permanently change the way they do business. No sane country will ever hold their reserves in US dollars or other currencies at a bank that the US government can directly or indirectly control. Nor will countries trust the Swift system which the US can unilaterally manipulate.

The flight from the US dollar will not happen overnight but it will be more rapid than anyone can imagine. No judicious central bank chief will ever consider handing their forex reserves to the US, a bankrupt nation, with a collapsing currency which at a whim can confiscate other countries’ reserves. But not only that, who would ever put their money into US treasuries. Investors would not only lose their total investment on the falling value of the dollar but also on the US as a dodgy debtor which could easily default by debasing the currency to ZERO or extinguish the debt.

Russia saw this coming already some years ago and thus liquidated all their US treasuries. Instead they wisely bought gold. US debt is now entering the Pass The Parcel Game with NO investor wanting to be left holding the parcel.

Consequences our US friends, Consequences! Do you now see that your government has not just shot yourself in the foot but has inflicted your country with a lethal head wound? The collateral damage will clearly lead to a distrust not only in the US but in all governments and all currencies. Globalism is now turning into isolationism."

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

Gregory Mannarino, "Expect The Lies, Distractions, And Propaganda, To Get Much Worse"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 4/7/22:

"Expect The Lies, Distractions, 

And Propaganda, To Get Much Worse"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Musical Interlude: Deuter, "Loving Touch"

Full screen recommended.

Deuter, "Loving Touch"

"FED Is About To Crash Everything Including Housing Market; Credit Card Life Support"

Jeremiah Babe, PM 4/6/22:

"FED Is About To Crash Everything Including 

Housing Market; Credit Card Life Support"

"Will Famine Emerge by Year End? Yes"

Full screen recommended.

Chris Martenson, Peak Prosperity,

"Will Famine Emerge by Year End? Yes"

- https://peakprosperity.com/

"Celente And The Judge: Judge Jackson’s Hearings, Politicians on a Power Trip"

"Celente And The Judge, 4/6/22: 

Judge Jackson’s Hearings, Politicians on a Power Trip"

"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

- https://trendsresearch.com/

"Nearly 17 Million Dead Chickens And Turkeys And Counting – America’s Bird Flu Pandemic Has Begun!"

Full screen recommended.

"Nearly 17 Million Dead Chickens And Turkeys And Counting –

 America’s Bird Flu Pandemic Has Begun!"

by Epic Economist

"Can you imagine what this country is going to look like if we have severe shortages of chicken and turkey by the end of the year? I don’t know why more people are not alarmed about the horrific bird flu pandemic that is sweeping across America like wildfire right now. On February 8th, the very first case of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was confirmed in a domestic U.S. flock. Just over one month later, on March 9th, we released a video that lamented the fact that almost 2.8 million birds (mostly chickens and turkeys) had already died during the first month of the pandemic. Unfortunately, since that time things have gotten much, much worse. This pandemic is not even two months old yet, and the death toll for chickens and turkeys has now risen to nearly 17 million.

The frightening thing is that bird flu just keeps popping up in more places around the country and nobody can tell us why it is spreading so rapidly. In fact, the USDA just announced five more outbreaks.

Experts stress that the virus can also cause sudden death in birds, even if they are not showing symptoms. “We’re asking that anyone involved with poultry or egg production, from large farms all the way down to backyard flock, review and implement their biosecurity practices to ensure the health and well-being of their flocks,” Dr. Hall said.

Overall, cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza have now been confirmed in 23 different U.S. states. This plague is completely and utterly out of control, and the word “catastrophic” is not nearly strong enough to describe what we are witnessing. Once a single bird tests positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza, the entire flock must be put down.

In other words, not a single bird can be left alive. Needless to say, the price of eggs is going to go through the roof. I have focused on the United States in this article, but the truth is that bird flu outbreaks are raging all over the globe right now.

When you combine this pandemic with the war in Ukraine, skyrocketing fertilizer prices and disastrous harvests around the planet, it is easy to see that the stage is being set for the sort of nightmarish global food crisis that I have long warned about. It seems like so many things are going horribly wrong all at once, but most people still don’t understand what is happening.

Most people just assume that our grocery stores will always be packed with mountains of extremely cheap food, and so the vast majority of them won’t take any steps to get prepared even though they have been warned again and again about what is coming."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com/

"Planned Starvation - Grain Deliveries by Rail to Be Partially Halted in America" (Excerpt)

"Planned Starvation - Grain Deliveries

by Rail to Be Partially Halted in America"

by Mike Adams

Excerpt: "US rail carriers, we have learned, are right now declaring force majeure and cancelling contracts on their obligations to deliver hundreds of thousands of rail cars of bulk grains to cattle and dairy operations in America. Right now, tens of thousands of dairy animals face starvation within weeks, and grain supplies will be gone in many areas in just a few days. Importantly, if dairy animals are culled because of a lack of grain, it will take many years to rebuild dairy operations to the present level.

Say goodbye to affordable milk, cheese, yogurt and whey protein. Don't forget this also affects infant formula. This is all being done on purpose to create mass chaos and civil unrest, of course."

Please view this complete, highly recommended, article here:

- https://www.naturalnews.com/

"Mere 'Normalization' of Interest Rates Would Nuke The Economy"

"Mere 'Normalization' of Interest Rates Would Nuke The Economy"

by Addison Wiggin

“People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction 

rather than surrender any material part of their advantage.”


— John Kenneth Galbraith

"When price inflation sets in, more workers find it hard to do more than buy gas, pay their rent or mortgage, keep up with credit card debt and medical bills. According to a poll out this morning on CNBC, 1 in 5 working Americans already run out of money between paychecks.

“The economic consequences of this are huge,” our Jim Rickards comments on the report. “If you buy coffee at the grocery store instead of going to Starbucks or go jogging instead of paying a visit to the gym, then service and retail industries all around the country start to suffer.” Decreased spending habits “can be followed by layoffs at some of those outlets and even more cuts in discretionary spending as the laid off workers tighten their belts.” We don’t need an inverted yield curve to tell us the knock on effect on the economy is a recession.

What’s a Fed monetary mandarin to do? In our session this week with Christopher Leonard, author of "The Lords of Easy Money" we ask that very question. Can the Fed afford to raise rates to “curb” inflation? We began the conversation with this chart:

You can quickly see the Fed’s weapon of choice in fighting economic mayhem is to drop the Fed funds rate. Each gray line represents a recession – The stock market Panic of 1987, The Tech Wreck of 2000, The Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and the government inspired economic lockdown of 2020 all led to extended periods of lower rates than the market would dictate… most recently – since 2008 – 0 to negative real rates.

The conundrum for monetary policy enthusiasts is simply put: leave rates too low for too long and you get massive misallocations of capital and supply chain disruptions because the cost of producing goods is not accurately aligned with the demand. You make too much stuff, it sits around in shipping containers and warehouses waiting for demand to catch up.

Throw in a pandemic, you get disruptions of an epic proportion… and price inflation at or approaching historic highs: 

As our guest points out, the current trajectory of price inflation looks eerily similar to the spike immediately following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods exchange rate system in 1971. And again nine years later when Paul Volker was hailed as the great champion over runaway inflation of the time.

“Today’s genius economists,” friend and fellow gloom-and-doomer Marc Faber writes in the April 2022 edition of his excellent "Gloom Boom and Doom" report,” tend to belittle Arthur Burns, who was Fed chair from 1970 to 1978,” making him Volker’s predecessor. “But to be fair to him, Burns increased the fed fund rate to 8% during his tenure. I seriously doubt today’s uneducated Fed members will be able to achieve even an increase to 3%.”

That begs the question, as Faber puts it, can “the Fed possibly increase interest rates sufficiently to curb inflation without endangering the entire financial system?” The answer Marc Faber gives is a resounding “no.”

During our discussion with Christopher Leonard on the current Federal Reserve, the so-called “Powell Fed,” we talked about not just their impotence in the face of drastically rising consumer prices, but their inability to even sell the idea of bringing rates back to historically “normal” levels.

“The most critical element of the Powell Fed,” Christopher says, “is that Jay Powell, when he became Chairman of the Federal Reserve, inherited a project from his predecessor, Janet Yellen, and in a way, her predecessor Ben Bernanke.” That is, he inherited the process of trying to quote, "normalize monetary policy", after years of using low rates as a monetary elixir to save the banking system and then to prop up financial markets.

“The Fed in 2008, 2010, pushed down this very experimental path of keeping interest rates at zero,” says Leonard, “and then critically doing quantitative easing, which is just pumping trillions of dollars into the banking system.” Leonard continues: "The entire time this is happening, it's acknowledged within the Fed, within the top policy committee, the FOMC, that we can't keep doing this forever. We're creating imbalances and distortions in the market. And so we have got to start raising interest rates above zero to a historically normal rate of even three or four percent. While at the same time, we need to start withdrawing some of this high powered money from the Wall Street banking system."

When Jay Powell walked onto the job in 2018 and inherited the process of trying to make things normal again, trying to raise interest rates to a level that's not just normal but even low by historical standards. He's trying to get rates back up to three percent and at the same time, trying to withdraw some of this cash from Wall Street, put in through quantitative easing. That was one of the most fascinating episodes in history, looking at what happened when the Fed really tried to normalize, so to speak, in a concentrated way in 2018, it caused the markets to short circuit and fall.

The Fed hasn't built sprawling infrastructure like the Social Security Administration, we summarize Mr. Leonard, but they have, particularly over the last decade, only expanded its footprint. “In other words,” says Chris, “back in 2008, it was an emergency procedure when the Federal Reserve went out and bought mortgage bonds for the first time in the heat of the crisis in ’08. The Fed buys mortgage bonds directly. That was kind of crazy. They had to actually hire an outside bank to do it for the Fed. But then that became incorporated into standard function. And now the Fed, since COVID, it's been buying $120 billion worth of assets a month, including 40 billion of mortgage bonds.”

Even slowing the asset purchase program, let alone reducing it, has caused apoplectic fits (stress) in the financial system; a system which has lived off the grift of Fed policy for years….long before consumer prices began to get the attention of the 20% of paycheck-to-paycheck workers we began this missive with. Unfortunately, for all, there’s more apoplexy on the way.

If you haven’t already, it’s worth following Chris Leonard on our short journey behind the curtains of the Powell Fed, right here: "The Lords of Easy Money: How The Federal Reserve Broke the American Economy":

"Follow your bliss,"

- WigginSessions@email.5minforecast.com

Gregory Mannarino, "Goldman Sachs Warns On The Market; The Fed Threatens Aggressive Action!"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 4/6/22:

"Goldman Sachs Warns On The Market; 

The Fed Threatens Aggressive Action!"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Musical Interlude: Spirit Tribe Awakening, "Deep Healing Energy - 528Hz Ancient Frequency - Sound Healing Session - Zen Meditation"

Full screen recommended.

Spirit Tribe Awakening,

"Deep Healing Energy - 528Hz Ancient Frequency - 

Sound Healing Session - Zen Meditation"

"Peaceful, empowering and soothing music and nature to nurture your

 mind, body, and soul. Supporting and empowering you on your life journey."

Beautiful...

Musical Interlude: Chuck Wild, "Liquid Mind, Dream Ten

Chuck Wild, "Liquid Mind, Dream Ten”

"Liquid Mind" (aka Chuck Wild) originally wrote this music to deal with the anxiety and stress of overwork and the serious illness of friends. The gentle ebb and flow of the music has an immediate "slowing down" effect, providing a serene escape from tension-filled days. Ideal for stress relief, falling asleep at night and to enhance meditative and therapeutic practices. There are few composers with as much love for slowness in their music as Wild. Chuck draws from classical and pop influences as varying as Beethoven and Brian Eno, Bartok and Rachmaninoff, Bach, Chopin and Fauré, Duruflé and Brahms."

- http://www.liquidmindmusic.com/

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Like delicate cosmic petals, these clouds of interstellar dust and gas have blossomed 1,300 light-years away in the fertile star fields of the constellation Cepheus. Sometimes called the Iris Nebula and dutifully cataloged as NGC 7023 this is not the only nebula in the sky to evoke the imagery of flowers. Still, this remarkable image shows off the Iris Nebula's range of colors and symmetries in impressive detail. Within the Iris, dusty nebular material surrounds a hot, young star.

The dominant color of the brighter reflection nebula is blue, characteristic of dust grains reflecting starlight. Central filaments of the dusty clouds glow with a faint reddish photoluminesence as some dust grains effectively convert the star's invisible ultraviolet radiation to visible red light. Infrared observations indicate that this nebula may contain complex carbon molecules known as PAHs. The bright blue portion of the Iris Nebula is about six light-years across.”

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap120929.html