Friday, December 17, 2021

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 12/17/21"

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 12/17/21"
"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will
do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone."
- John Maynard Keynes
"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates

CNN Market Data:

CNN Fear And Greed Index:
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
Dec. 16th to 24th, Updated Daily
Financial Stress Index
"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Daily Job Cuts
Commentary, highly recommended:
And now, the End Game...
Oh yeah...

Greg Hunter, "Weekly News Wrap-Up 12/17/21"

"Weekly News Wrap-Up 12/17/21"
Evil Globalist Narratives Failing Everywhere
by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"Everywhere you look you see failing narratives. On the Covid front, they are telling people to get the boosters. They have gotten two shots already and they are getting Covid. Another study out of Israel this week says natural immunity is better than injections. Another study out of Harvard a few weeks ago says the same thing. Now, the CDC is admitting that 80% of the Omicron cases are with the “Fully Vaxed.” 33% of those cases are with people vaxed and boostered. YouTube just censored a video from Joe Rogan with cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough warning about how the Deep State is stopping treatments like Ivermectin that work. The censorship from YouTube has now become part of the failing narrative and is a big story in and of itself.

The entire narrative is falling apart, and Joe Biden keeps losing in court for his precious mandates for experimental vaccines for everyone. In pro sports, the NFL is fighting new Covid cases by the dozens, and the organization is at least 95% vaxed. Their answer to the Covid problem they cannot hide? More shots are required, and that means getting a booster and more of what does not work. There are also many new videos of soccer players falling to the ground and grabbing their chests. They are all vaxed up and having public heart problems while playing a game. There is nothing to see here. It’s all just a coincidence as some of the mainstream media tries to explain away why young people in the prime of physical condition are having heart problems after being vaxed.

On the financial front, the temporary or “transitory” inflation has changed to “persistent,” according to Fed Head Jay Powell. He says he’s going to fight inflation and, yet, passes on raising rates off the near 0% mark this week. His anti-inflation narrative is failing too, and that means much more inflation is on the way. Either way, many are going to end up poor."

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he talks about these 
stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up 12/17/21:

Thursday, December 16, 2021

"Bank Of America: A Catastrophic Stock Market Crash Is Inevitable In December"

Full screen recommended.
"Bank Of America: A Catastrophic Stock
 Market Crash Is Inevitable In December"
by Epic Economist

Notice: The first 2:42 if this video is an advertisement
 for PIA VPN. Begin viewing at 2:43.

"Earlier this week, Wall Street chaos further accelerated as new inflation data continued to show an acute rise in prices while some big tech names saw stock prices steadily dropping. The Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones have all ended the trading session in negative territory. The tech market bubble continued to deflate this week, with Microsoft, Adobe, Netflix, Apple, and Amazon recording significant losses. Tesla stocks, one of the market's favorites, have also collapsed as CEO Elon Musk sold another $906.5 million in shares. The speculative meme stock bubble has also popped. On Monday, GameStop and AMC Entertainment were hardly hit by a broader market sell-off as top investors massively dumped risky stocks and repositioned their portfolios to safe havens.

GameStop, the main attraction of the meme stock mania, plummeted by 30%, while shares of AMC hit their lowest level since June, dropping by more than 31%. Several other names that have been popular amongst Reddit’s WallStreetBets investors have faced steep losses as well amid the overall risk-off sentiment and higher volatility. “The large-cap names are now starting to fall by the wayside, which is exactly what happened in 2018, the last time we had sort of that rolling correction idea,” Morgan Stanley chief investment officer Mike Wilson explained.

To make things even worse, yesterday, the Federal Reserve ditched the "transitory inflation" narrative, and admitted that the inflation outlook is much more alarming than previously expected. That's why Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that the central bank will issue three interest rate hikes until mid-2022, the first one starting next week. But instead of triggering an irreversible meltdown, the announcement actually sparked a melt-up, with investors in total denial still trying to push the collapsing bubble higher.

Several agencies, firms, and market watchers are warning that the Fed's turbo taper is about to trigger much more chaos in the coming weeks. On a recent note to clients, Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson warned that "the Fed's pivot to a more aggressive tapering schedule poses a larger risk for asset prices than most investors believe". Wilson said that the rolling correction that has already begun continues under the surface, and makes spiking indexes ​"a very bad gauge of the overall health of the stock market, or the economy, in our view."

The most worrying warning, however, came from Bank of America. The bank's latest weekly report suggested that a dot-com-style crash of big tech stocks is coming on the heels of the Fed rate hike, and investors should start selling right now before this massive bubble burst wipes out all the gains for good. "Investors should sell the rally in stocks ahead of upcoming Fed interest rate hikes," Bank of America's analysts wrote on a note released Friday. The bank also highlighted the striking similarity between today's market conditions and the unwind of the tech bubble burst during the 2000 dot-com crash.

Bank of America's Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett said that this week's "recovery rally represents an opportunity for investors to sell ahead of an upcoming Fed interest rate shock". He expects the Fed to aggressively raise interest rates, shocking those who don't see it coming. For that very reason, Hartnett recommends investors "'sell the rip' rather than 'buy the dip' in stocks as interest rate hikes are about to rock Wall Street, and amid a strikingly similar unwind in tech stocks compared to the dot-com bubble in 2000," he wrote. "The bubble in speculative froth has popped," the Bank of America's strategist warned.

So, as you can imagine, with inflation soaring to the highest level in 40 years, the Fed is going to be forced to drive a liquidity crunch like no other. And soon, the whole market will start to freak out about it. This is the first time in nearly a decade that the market will have to say goodbye to all that excess liquidity that made it hit one record-high after the other despite the worsening economic fundamentals.

The possibility of an 80% drop is growing by the day, and with retail investors putting all their capital on the table and boosting the bets with margin and leverage, we might be headed to the biggest wealth loss event of the century, as the legendary investor, Jeremy Grantham, has cautioned months ago. Timing is everything in a stock market crash and 'hell is the truth seen too late'. That is to say, when investors choose to ignore the risks and lose the chance to preserve their capital, they end up losing everything. So we all must start getting ready right now!"

"Prepare For A Brutal 2022; Cash Disappeared; Inflation Locomotive Off Tracks; FED In A Jam"

Jeremiah Babe, PM 12/16/21:
"Prepare For A Brutal 2022; Cash Disappeared;
 Inflation Locomotive Off Tracks; FED In A Jam"

"Covid: The Truth Behind The Lies, Dr. Peter McCullough"

Peak Prosperity, Chris Martenson,
"Covid: The Truth Behind The Lies, Dr. Peter McCullough"
Part 2 of this interview is here:

“Responsible Governing”

“Responsible Governing”
by Brian Maher

"Responsible governing has won on this exceedingly important issue." These are the words of Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer, Democrat, New York State. Sen. Schumer refers to the elevation of the country’s debt roof. On Tuesday the United States Senate voted to raise the ceiling $2.5 trillion above existing heights. This morning the president blessed the bill with his official signature.

And so a federal government “shutdown” is skirted. Reports CNBC: "President Joe Biden signed a debt ceiling increase into law Thursday, ensuring the U.S. will not default on its debt for the first time ever. The country inched close to economic peril. Biden signed the borrowing limit hike a day after the date that the Treasury Department estimated it would run out of tools to keep paying the country’s bills."

This $2.5 trillion debt-raising should keep Washington in funds through early 2023. Incidentally – or not incidentally – early 2023 ranges beyond the November 2022 midterm elections. Is this coincidence? We do not believe this is coincidence. That is because we have a political animal on our hands. This creature has calculated that the budget should see him through the 2022 election. It will neutralize the opposition’s sting.

Nonetheless, claims Sen. Schumer: "The American people can breathe easy and rest assured there will not be a default." Yet today our breathing is not free. It is instead labored, distressed, full of gasps and pants. That is because the United States Senate has consented to plunge the nation ever deeper into the red ocean of debt, the abysm of debt. What is more, we believe strongly it is not productive debt. It is unproductive debt.

We would rather the United States government lower the debt ceiling for society’s good. Economist Mark Thornton: "If Congress passed legislation that systematically reduced the debt ceiling over time, the economy could be rebuilt on a solid foundation. Entrepreneurs in the productive sectors would realize that an ever-increasing proportion of resources (land, labor, and capital) would be at their disposal, while companies that capitalized on the federal budget would have an ever-declining share of such resources…"

Of course, reducing the debt ceiling would force the government to stop borrowing so much money from credit markets. This would leave significantly more credit available for the private sector. The shortage of capital is one of the most often cited reasons for the failure of the economy to recover.

Lowering the debt ceiling would force federal-government budget cutting on a large scale, and this would free up resources (labor, land, and capital) and force a cutback in the federal government's regulatory apparatus. This would put Americans back to work producing consumer-valued goods.

This will happen once hell is an ice sheet, several miles in depth. Yet we must conclude that elevating the debt roof is not “responsible governing.” It is ultimately irresponsible governing. Alas, it is a commonplace of American democracy in the 21st century. We are occasionally inspired to republish a thought piece of ours comparing democracy to monarchy. Today is one such day. Is democracy necessarily superior to monarchy? Read on."
"Democracy vs. Monarchy"
By Brian Maher

"Today we trample sacred ground… trumpet a message of heresy… and offend the pieties. For we challenge the cherished and soothing assumptions of democracy. In 2001, academic Hans-Hermann Hoppe scribbled a book bearing the soaring title "Democracy: The God That Failed." Hoppe’s work is a dart levelled against that holiest of secular divinities.

Hoppe’s primary tort against democracy? It wastes. It exhausts its capital. It forever takes the short view. Hoppe uses the economic concept of time preference to nail his point through. A Jill with low time preference delays her gratification until the future. She is disciplined. She is willing to have her cake later — only after she has tended to her duties. But a Jack with high time preference orients toward present consumption. He wants his cake now - and the future can go scratching.

Democracy, in Hoppe’s regard, “wants it now.” It is a spendthrift; a profligate; a child at large in a candy store. As the drunkard cannot see beyond the next drink… democracy cannot see past the next election. The problem, says Hoppe, is that democratic leaders do not own the machinery of government. It is theirs on temporary loan. Thus the democratic politician is a mere placeholder. But is that not our system’s cardinal virtue - that power is not permanently lodged in a single vessel? A rotating roster of rogues is far superior to one alone, you counter. Otherwise, the American Revolution was a vast swindle, and the 4th of July is a blackguard’s holiday.

A Pre-Arranged Raid on the Treasury: But because a leader under democracy does not own the government apparatus, argues Hoppe, he has no incentive to maximize its value. Instead, he tends to deplete it. His limited time horizon forces him toward immediate gratification. That is, he must get while the getting is there to be gotten.

Consider the aspiring democratic official who seeks the franchise of a demanding public. He may feel the tug of fiscal conscience. But should he fail to gratify the crowd’s clamorings, he knows the other fellow will. And our democratic aspirant will lose his election. So he offers up the requisite sweets.

If Social Security benefits must increase to sweep him into office, they will increase. Will it take more Medicare benefits, more unemployment insurance, more welfare? Then these you will see. His election represents a pre-arranged raid upon the Treasury. If the national purse is thin, if the burden cannot be met from existing stocks, then let it go upon the credit card. Is the business sordid? Might it eventually throw the Republic into bankruptcy? Well, eventually is a long way off, he says. Let it fall into the next fellow’s lap. Besides, we’ll simply grow our way out of it. This is the office-seeker under modern democracy. Compare, for a moment, democratic government with a rented automobile…

Who Ever Washed a Rental Car? The renter does not own the auto. He, therefore, has no regard for its long-term health. So he over-accelerates the engine. He pummels the brakes. Down its gullet, he pours the lowest-test gasoline. Would he ever check the oil? And who, may we inquire, has ever run a rental through a wash?

Here Hoppe applies the theory to democratic government: "It must be regarded as unavoidable that public-government ownership results in continual capital consumption. Instead of maintaining or even enhancing the value of the government estate, as a king would do, a president (the government’s temporary caretaker or trustee) will use up as much of the government resources as quickly as possible, for what he does not consume now, he may never be able to consume… For a president, unlike for a king, moderation offers only disadvantages."

Hoppe speaks of a king. Unlike democracy, Hoppe contends, monarchy takes the long view. The monarch owns the apparatus of government. As will his heirs. So he naturally inclines to policies that increase the value of his property over time. If Social Security, Medicare and the rest begin to deplete the government’s stocks, the monarch will announce a halt to them.

“It’s welfare you want, subject? I understand the church runs a charity.” “Social Security, you seek? I suggest you begin planning early for your retirement. And remember to save against the rainy day.” “You say you want health care. I hope you don’t smoke or drink too much. And let me mention it now - sugar is a far-from-healthful substance. Besides, there are private insurers. I can refer you to several if you wish.”

The People Tell the King to Get Bent: Is such a system undemocratic? Certainly. Callous, perhaps? Well, perhaps it is. But is it fiscally stable? Yes. Would it incur massive debts it could never repay? Unlikely. In brief, monarchy is better with money than democracy. It is a superior steward of wealth - at least by this theory.

Once again, Hoppe: "While a king is by no means opposed to debt, he is constrained in this “natural” inclination by the fact that as the government’s private owner, he and his heirs are considered personally liable for the payment of all government debts (he can literally go bankrupt, or be forced by creditors to liquidate government assets)."

Consider, as one example: "In 1392, England’s King Henry III was in arrears to the Pope in Rome… and required 1,000 pounds towards satisfaction of his debt. He did not have it. So old Hank was forced to appear before the citizens of London with an open hat. Moreover, they refused him."

Can you imagine a president of the United States upon his knees before the citizens of Washington? And these citizens being allowed to refuse him?

Freeman Tilden, from his neglected 1936 masterwork, "A World in Debt:"* "Kings had power enough to contract debts, but found it much more difficult to take advantage of that power than the legally curbed monarchs [that followed later]. The feudal system, with its insecurity and constant clash of petty divisions, was not calculated to invite credit."

In distinct contrast, Hoppe argues, we find the democratic president: "A presidential government caretaker is not held liable for debts incurred during his tenure of office. Rather, his debts are considered “public,” to be repaid by future (equally nonliable) governments. Perhaps this explains - pandemic aside - why the national debt of the United States runs to some $29 trillion?

It is a capital fact beyond all dispute: Most democratic nations groan beneath bloated government… extortionate taxation… and Himalayan levels of debt.

Taxes: How does this lovely, lovely state compare with the barbarous age of monarchs, Mr. Hoppe? During the entire monarchical age until the second half of the 19th century… the tax burden rarely exceeded 5 percent of national product. Since then it has increased constantly. In Western Europe it stood at 15–20 percent of national product after World War I, and in the meantime it has risen to around 50 percent.

Government spending ran to roughly 10% of GDP prior to World War I. It currently nears 50% in many democratic countries. Total government spending in this Land of the Free amounts to 36% of GDP - nearly 40%. Perhaps in retrospect, the world might have been made safe for monarchy in 1917.

And maybe our Colonial forefathers should have left old King George alone in 1775. His tax bite was so light… it failed to break the skin. Our researches reveal that American Colonial taxation ran to about 1% of total income - 1%. And between 1764 and 1775, claims political scientist Alvin Rabushka: "The nearly 2 million white Colonists in America paid on the order of about 1 percent of the annual taxes levied on the roughly 8.5 million residents of Britain, or one twenty-fifth, in per capita terms…"

As traitorous as it may appear, we are half-tempted to disinter King George’s innocent bones and throw them a much overdue parade. But let us entertain no more thoughts of heresy.

The Worst System of Government… Except for the Rest: Hoppe’s book is actually no call for monarchy. As the author himself states at the onset - “I am not a monarchist and the following is not a defense of monarchy.” His primary purpose is to diagnose an illness - not to prescribe a cure. Hoppe’s sins against democracy are nonetheless of the mortal variety. And mainstream academics put him under excommunication for his blasphemies.

But to repeat, Hoppe does not call for monarchy. Nor do we. Beneath our seditious motley beats the heart of an American patriot… and our blood runs true under red, white and blue. Besides, a king could be every inch the scoundrel as an American president. And since he faces no election, how could we possibly count upon him to say amusing and idiotic things? Let us, therefore, not discount the comedic value of democratic government.

In addition, monarchy is certainly no guarantee against bankruptcy - as history records well. More than a few ne’er do well kings have driven their realms to rack and ruin. Who can dispute it? But it is due more to incompetent kingmanship than kingmanship itself. A Henry VIII can inherit a throne as easily as a Solomon. Regardless, it matters little… Hoppe’s monarchic utopia will never be - not in today’s age of mass democracy.

But does it soften his case? Winston Churchill famously quipped that democracy was the worst form of government except for the rest. But upon further reflection, perhaps monarchy is the worst form of government… except for the rest…"
*Freely download “A World In Debt”, by Freeman Tilden, here:

Gerald Celente, "Trends in The News Live"

Full screen recommended.
Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, "Trends in The News Live"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

Musical Interlude: Simon & Garfunkel, "The Boxer"; "The Sounds of Silence"; "Bridge Over Troubled Water"

Simon & Garfunkel, "The Boxer"
Simon & Garfunkel, "The Sounds of Silence"
Simon & Garfunkel, "Bridge Over Troubled Water"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"This popular group leaps into the early evening sky around the March equinox and the northern hemisphere spring. Famous as the Leo Triplet, the three magnificent galaxies found in the prominent constellation Leo gather here in one astronomical field of view. Crowd pleasers when imaged with even modest telescopes, they can be introduced individually as NGC 3628 (right), M66 (upper left), and M65 (bottom). All three are large spiral galaxies but tend to look dissimilar, because their galactic disks are tilted at different angles to our line of sight. 
NGC 3628, also known as the Hamburger Galaxy, is temptingly seen edge-on, with obscuring dust lanes cutting across its puffy galactic plane. The disks of M66 and M65 are both inclined enough to show off their spiral structure. Gravitational interactions between galaxies in the group have left telltale signs, including the tidal tails and warped, inflated disk of NGC 3628 and the drawn out spiral arms of M66. This gorgeous view of the region spans over 1 degree (two full moons) on the sky in a frame that covers over half a million light-years at the trio's estimated distance of 30 million light-years. Of course the spiky foreground stars lie well within our own Milky Way."

Chet Raymo, “Dewy-eyed”

“Dewy-eyed”
by Chet Raymo

“I believe I have mentioned before that many years ago, before I started writing for the Boston Globe, I had a column in the college newspaper called "Under a Skeptical Star." The phrase came from a line of the Scots poet/scholar William MacNeile Dixon: "If there be a skeptical star I was born under it, yet I have lived all my days in complete astonishment."

That was nearly half-a-century ago. I'm still astonished. Easily astonished. I don't require magnificent vistas, frozen waterfalls, spectacular sunsets. I don't need the Red Sea parted or Lazarus raised from the dead. I've been astonished by comets and eclipses, but I don't need a comet or eclipse. A leaf will do. A snowflake. The tip-tip-tip of a nuthatch heard but not seen in a piney wood. A lop-sided spider web wet with dew. Don't tell me about answered prayers. Premonitions that came to pass. The paranormal and preternatural. That's when my skeptical star kicks in, the one I was born under. That's when an irrepressible voice in the back of my head whispers: "There's nothing less astonishing than the apparently miraculous."

I'll settle for the commonplace. The ordinary. The quotidian. The flower in the crannied wall. The universe in a grain of sand. A single silicon dioxide molecule is astonishment enough to set my chin agog. How many silicon dioxide molecules in a grain of sand? About a trillion billion by my rough calculation. That's a lot of astonishment. A lop-sided spider web wet with dew. Even the words are astonishing.”

“50 Questions That Will Free Your Mind”

“50 Questions That Will Free Your Mind”
by Marc Chernoff

"These questions have no right or wrong answers, because sometimes asking the right questions is the answer.

1. How old would you be if you didn’t know how old you are?
2. Which is worse, failing or never trying?
3. If life is so short, why do we do so many things we don’t like and like so many things we don’t do?
4. When it’s all said and done, will you have said more than you’ve done?
5. What is the one thing you’d most like to change about the world?
6. If happiness was the national currency, what kind of work would make you rich?
7. Are you doing what you believe in, or are you settling for what you are doing?
8. If the average human life span was 40 years, how would you live your life differently?
9. To what degree have you actually controlled the course your life has taken?
10. Are you more worried about doing things right, or doing the right things?
11. You’re having lunch with three people you respect and admire. They all start criticizing a close friend of yours, not knowing she is your friend. The criticism is distasteful and unjustified. What do you do?
12. If you could offer a newborn child only one piece of advice, what would it be?
13. Would you break the law to save a loved one?
14. Have you ever seen insanity where you later saw creativity?
15. What’s something you know you do differently than most people?
16. How come the things that make you happy don’t make everyone happy?
17. What one thing have you not done that you really want to do? What’s holding you back?
18. Are you holding onto something you need to let go of?
19. If you had to move to a state or country besides the one you currently live in, where would you move and why?
20. Do you push the elevator button more than once? Do you really believe it makes the elevator faster?
21. Would you rather be a worried genius or a joyful simpleton?
22. Why are you, you?
23. Have you been the kind of friend you want as a friend?
24. Which is worse, when a good friend moves away, or losing touch with a good friend who lives right near you?
25. What are you most grateful for?
26. Would you rather lose all of your old memories, or never be able to make new ones?
27. Is is possible to know the truth without challenging it first?
28. Has your greatest fear ever come true?
29. Do you remember that time 5 years ago when you were extremely upset? Does it really matter now?
30. What is your happiest childhood memory? What makes it so special?
31. At what time in your recent past have you felt most passionate and alive?
32. If not now, then when?
33. If you haven’t achieved it yet, what do you have to lose?
34. Have you ever been with someone, said nothing, and walked away feeling like you just had the best conversation ever?
35. Why do religions that support love cause so many wars?
36. Is it possible to know, without a doubt, what is good and what is evil?
37. If you just won a million dollars, would you quit your job?
38. Would you rather have less work to do, or more work you actually enjoy doing?
39. Do you feel like you’ve lived this day a hundred times before?
40. When was the last time you marched into the dark with only the soft glow of an idea you strongly believed in?
41. If you knew that everyone you know was going to die tomorrow, who would you visit today?
42. Would you be willing to reduce your life expectancy by 10 years to become extremely attractive or famous?
43. What is the difference between being alive and truly living?
44. When is it time to stop calculating risk and rewards, and just go ahead and do what you know is right?
45. If we learn from our mistakes, why are we always so afraid to make a mistake?
46. What would you do differently if you knew nobody would judge you?
47. When was the last time you noticed the sound of your own breathing?
48. What do you love? Have any of your recent actions openly expressed this love?
49. In 5 years from now, will you remember what you did yesterday? What about the day before that? Or the day before that?
50. Decisions are being made right now. The question is: Are you making them for yourself, or are you letting others make them for you?"

"Life Comes at You Fast, So You Better Be Ready"

"Life Comes at You Fast, So You Better Be Ready"
by Ryan Holiday

"In 1880, Theodore Roosevelt wrote to his brother, “My happiness is so great that it makes me almost afraid.” In October of that year, life got even better. As he wrote in his diary the night of his wedding to Alice Hathaway Lee, “Our intense happiness is too sacred to be written about.” He would consider it to be one of the best years of his life: he got married, wrote a book, attended law school, and won his first election for public office.

The streak continued. In 1883, he wrote “I can imagine nothing more happy in life than an evening spent in the cozy little sitting room, before a bright fire of soft coal, my books all around me, and playing backgammon with my own dainty mistress.” And that’s how he and Alice spent that cold winter as it crawled into the new year. He wrote in late January that he felt he was fully coming into his own. “I feel now as though I have the reins in my hand.” On February 12th, 1884 his first daughter was born.

Two days later, his wife would be dead of Bright’s disease (now known as kidney failure). His mother had died only hours earlier in the same house, of typhoid fever. Roosevelt marked the day in his diary with a large “X.” Next to it, he wrote, “The light has gone out of my life.”

Life comes at us fast, don’t it?  It can change in an instant. Everything you built, everyone you hold dear, can be taken from you. For absolutely no reason. Just as easily, you can be taken from them. This is why the Stoics say we need to be prepared, constantly, for the twists and turns of Fortune. It’s why Seneca said that nothing happens to the wise man contrary to his expectation, because the wise man has considered every possibility—even the cruel and heartbreaking ones.

And yet even Seneca was blindsided by a health scare in his early twenties that forced him to spend nearly a decade in Egypt to recover. He lost his father less than a year before he lost his first-born son, and twenty days after burying his son he was exiled by the emperor Caligula. He lived through the destruction of one city by a fire and another by an earthquake, before being exiled two more times.

One needs only to read his letters and essays, written on a rock off the coast of Italy, to get a sense that even a philosopher can get knocked on their ass and feel sorry for themselves from time to time.

What do we do? Well, first, knowing that life comes at us fast, we should be always prepared. Seneca wrote that the fighter who has “seen his own blood, who has felt his teeth rattle beneath his opponent’s fist… who has been downed in body but not in spirit…” - only they can go into the ring confident of their chances of winning. They know they can take getting bloodied and bruised. They know what the darkness before the proverbial dawn feels like. They have a true and accurate sense for the rhythms of a fight and what winning requires. That sense only comes from getting knocked around. That sense is only possible because of their training.

In his own life, Seneca bloodied and bruised himself through a practice called premeditatio malorum (“the premeditation of evils”). Rehearsing his plans, say to take a trip, he would go over the things that could go wrong or prevent the trip from happening - a storm could spring up, the captain could fall ill, the ship could be attacked by pirates, he could be banished to the island of Corsica the morning of the trip. By doing what he called a premeditatio malorum, Seneca was always prepared for disruption and always working that disruption into his plans. He was fitted for defeat or victory. He stepped into the ring confident he could take any blow. Nothing happened contrary to his expectations.

Second, we should always be careful not to tempt fate. Life comes at us fast… but that doesn’t mean we should be stupid. We also shouldn’t be arrogant.

Third, we have to hang on. Remember, that in the depths of both of Seneca’s darkest moments, he was unexpectedly saved. From exile, he was suddenly recalled to be the emperor’s tutor. In the words of the historian Richard M. Gummere, “Fortune, whom Seneca as a Stoic often ridicules, came to his rescue.” But Churchill, as always, put it better: “Sometimes when Fortune scowls most spitefully, she is preparing her most dazzling gifts.”

Life is like this. It gives us bad breaks - heartbreakingly bad breaks - and it also gives us incredible lucky breaks. Sometimes the ball that should have gone in, bounces out. Sometimes the ball that had no business going in surprises both the athlete and the crowd when it eventually, after several bounces, somehow manages to pass through the net.

When we’re going through a bad break, we should never forget Fortune’s power to redeem us. When we’re walking through the roses, we should never forget how easily the thorns can tear us upon, how quickly we can be humbled. Sometimes life goes your way, sometimes it doesn’t.

This is what Theodore Roosevelt learned, too. Despite what he wrote in his diary that day in 1884, the light did not completely go out of Roosevelt’s life. Sure, it flickered. It looked like the flame might have been cruelly extinguished. But with time and incredible energy and force of will, he came back from those tragedies. He became a great father, a great husband, and a great leader. He came back and the world was better for it. He was better for it.

Life comes at us fast. Today. Tomorrow. When we least expect it. Be ready. Be strong. Don’t let your light be snuffed out.

The Daily "Near You?"

Janesville, Wisconsin, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Why..."

"Is there an answer to the question of why bad things happen to good people? The response would be… to forgive the world for not being perfect, to forgive God for not making a better world, to reach out to the people around us, and to go on living despite it all, no longer asking why something happened, but asking how we will respond, what we intend to do now that it has happened."
- Harold S. Kushner

"Holiday Cheer is Tempered by Retail Disasters - Stocks Rally"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly, AM 12/16/21:
"Holiday Cheer is Tempered by Retail Disasters - Stocks Rally"
"The Holiday Season is tempered by the retail disaster around us. No matter what the stores do they cannot hide how bad retail sales are. The supply chains have been destroyed and even the largest retailer is hanging by a thread."

"And the Fed Keeps Doing It"

"And the Fed Keeps Doing It"
by Bill Bonner

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – "Don’t forget. We’re cleaning out our desks, putting our things in cardboard boxes… and saying misty-eyed farewells to the Legacy team. It’s been fun. But now, it’s time to try something new. A new adventure. A new way of staying in touch with dear readers. And a new expedition into a new and treacherous – financial world. We hope you’ll join us…And now, back to our regularly scheduled programming.

Birds do it. Bees do it. Even educated fleas do it. Give them more money from the Federal Reserve… and interest rates below the rate of inflation… and everybody does it. Borrows money, that is.

And who does it best? The U.S. government… Borrower Numero Uno in the whole world. It borrows so much – nearly $6 trillion added to its debt over the last two years – it could never do so honestly. It has to connive with the Federal Reserve to provide more cash and keep interest rates low.

“Inflate or Die” Trap: But now, the central bank is in a tough spot. It encouraged people to take on debt. So if it raises rates… they will lose their investments, their businesses, even their homes. Billionaire investor and hedge fund manager Ray Dalio sees the “Inflate or Die” trap; MarketWatch reports: "Ray Dalio warns Fed’s hands are tied and higher U.S. inflation is sticking around. Democracy, maybe not."

Yes, the Bridgewater jefe understands that the Fed cannot corral runaway prices… and that inflation is ultimately incompatible with consensual democratic capitalism. And word is getting around. Even CNN sees the “Inflate or Die” trap: "The good news is that the Federal Reserve knows how to fight inflation: By tapping the brakes on the economy. The bad news is the harder it hits the brakes, the greater the risk of an accident that ends the economic recovery, freaks out financial markets – or both. “The Fed knows what to do, but they don’t necessarily know how to do it without squashing the economy,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, told CNN."

Squashing the economy? Yes… and squashing the elite, too – which just happens to control Congress, the press, the administration, the universities, and the central bank. If monetary policy would go back to normal, stock prices would go back to normal, too.

As we told you on Tuesday, “normal” for the stock market used to be about 80% of GDP. With U.S. GDP at about $23 trillion right now, that would put the total value of all stocks – mostly owned by the top 10% of the population – at around $18.5 trillion… or about $30 trillion lower than they are today. Almost all of the losses would come out of the pockets of the elite. The elite would lose power, too. The ruling party would be voted out of office… And those who take over would be warned: Don’t cut off the money.

The Fed Rolls Over: So, what did the Fed do yesterday? Did it throw the switch, raise rates, and stop “printing” new money? Or will it let the money machine keep working as long as possible? Here’s MarketWatch: "U.S. equity benchmarks closed sharply higher Wednesday, and the S&P 500 missed a record closing high, after the Federal Reserve announced a speedier reduction of its monthly asset purchases in the face of persistently elevated inflation. Fed policy makers also now think official interest rates could rise three times in the coming year, rather than the sole hike penciled in earlier."

That’s right. As expected, the Fed is rolling over. Instead of putting out the inflation fire, it will reduce the rate at which it adds tinder! And nobody, except the financial press, was fooled. But who cares? Not investors. They’re bidding up stocks, sure that the Fed still has their backs. And not the federales either. At the current inflation rate, the real value of federal debt is going down at about $1.4 trillion per year. And the elite? They’re in power… and getting richer. What’s not to like?

What Smart Central Bankers Do: One of our dear readers said he learned in school that “nobody knows what causes inflation.” He’s right, of course. In the real world of economics and finance, nobody knows anything. And inflation is especially wily… devious… hard to control… and impossible to fine tune. How it goes from smoke to flame is poorly understood.

But there are things you shouldn’t do – even if you don’t know exactly how it works. We don’t know when a bull is going to charge… so we stay out of its way. We don’t know if Hell actually exists. But we’re not going to rob a retiree, murder a Democrat, or rape a nun just to find out.

Likewise, a prudent central banker doesn’t multiply a nation’s monetary base three times since 2008 – simply because he doesn’t know the combustion point of paper money. prudent central banker knows what he doesn’t know. He doesn’t know exactly how much new money he can print before inflation rates flare up… But he knows it will be hard to bring the fire under control later.

If he is stupid, he says to himself, “No one knows what causes inflation, so I might as well print more money.” But if he is smart, he says, “Geez, there’s no good way out of this. If I cut off the money, they’ll act as if I had horns and a tail, and get rid of me. But if I keep printing, things will seem okay for a while. I might even be considered a hero, like that fool Bernanke.” So he keeps doing it."

Gregory Mannarino, "AM/PM 12/16/21"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 12/16/21:
"Ignore The Propaganda! Inflation Is Going To 
Surge Higher Faster Than Ever, Be Ready For It"
Gregory Mannarino, PM 12/16/21:
"Risk In This Market Is Dropping, And Fear 
Produces Opportunity- It's Time To Feed My Lions!"

"How It Really Is"

Paulo Coelho, "Killing Our Dreams"

"Killing Our Dreams"
by Paulo Coelho

"In 1986, I went for the first and only time on the pilgrimage known as the Way to Santiago, an experience I described in my first book. We had just finished walking up a small hill, a village appeared on the horizon, and it was then that my guide, whom I shall call Petrus (although that was not his name), said to me: "We must never stop dreaming. Dreams provide nourishment for the soul, just as a meal does for the body. Many times in our lives we see our dreams shattered and our desires frustrated, but we have to continue dreaming. If we don’t, our soul dies.

The Good Fight is the one we fight because our heart asks it of us. The Good Fight is the one that’s fought in the name of our dreams. When we are young our dreams first explode inside us with all of their force, we are very courageous, but we haven’t yet learned how to fight. With great effort, we learn how to fight, but by then we no longer have the courage to go into combat. So we turn against ourselves and do battle within. We become our own worst enemy. We say that our dreams were childish, or too difficult to realize, or the result or our not having known enough about life. We kill our dreams because we are afraid to Fight the Good Fight.

"The first symptom of the process of our killing our dreams is the lack of time. The busiest people I have known in my life always have time enough to do everything. Those who do nothing are always tired and pay no attention to the little amount of work they are required to do. They complain constantly that the day is too short. The truth is, they are afraid to fight the Good Fight.

The second symptom of the death of our dreams lies in our certainties. Because we don’t want to see life as a grand adventure, we begin to think of ourselves as wise and fair and correct in asking so little of life. We look beyond the walls of our day-to-day existence, and we hear the sound of lances breaking, we smell the dust and the sweat, and we see the great defeats and the fire in the eyes of the warriors. But we never see the delight, the immense delight in the hearts of those who are engaged in the battle. For them, neither victory nor defeat is important; what’s important is only that they are fighting the Good Fight.

And, finally, the third symptom of the passing of our dreams is peace. Life becomes a Sunday afternoon; we ask for nothing grand, and we cease to demand anything more than we are willing to give. In that state, we think of ourselves as being mature; we put aside the fantasies of our youth, and we seek personal and professional achievement. We are surprised when people our age say that they still want this or that out of life. But really, deep in our hearts, we know that what has happened is that we have renounced the battle for our dreams – we have refused to fight the Good Fight.

When we renounce our dreams and find peace, we go through a short period of tranquility. But the dead dreams begin to rot within us and to infect our entire being. We become cruel to those around us, and then we begin to direct this cruelty against ourselves. That’s when illnesses and psychoses arise. What we sought to avoid in combat – disappointment and defeat – come upon us because of our cowardice.

And one day, the dead, spoiled dreams make it difficult to breathe, and we actually seek death. It’s death that frees us from our certainties, from our work, and from that terrible peace of our Sunday afternoons."

Wednesday, December 15, 2021

"We All Know..."

“We all know that something is eternal. And it ain’t houses and it ain’t names, and it ain’t earth, and it ain’t even the stars… everybody knows in their bones that something is eternal, and that something has to do with human beings. All the greatest people ever lived have been telling us that for five thousand years and yet you’d be surprised how people are always losing hold of it. There’s something way down deep that’s eternal about every human being.”
- Thornton Wilder
“I believe that imagination is stronger than knowledge.
That myth is more potent than history.
I believe that dreams are more powerful than facts.
That hope always triumphs over experience.
That laughter is the only cure for grief.
And I believe that love is stronger than death.”
- Robert Fulghum
“For Those Who Have Died”
“Eleh Ezkerah” (“These We Remember”)

“Tis a fearful thing
To love
What death can touch.
To love, to hope, to dream,
And oh, to lose.
A thing for fools, this,
Love,
But a holy thing,
To love what death can touch.
For your life has lived in me;
Your laugh once lifted me;
Your word was a gift to me.
To remember this brings painful joy.
Tis a human thing, love,
A holy thing,
To love
What death can touch.”
- Chaim Stern
Statue: “Into The Silent Land”, 
by Henry Pegram, 1905
“We are travelers on a cosmic journey, stardust, swirling and dancing in the eddies and whirlpools of Infinity. Life is Eternal. We have stopped for a moment to encounter each other, to meet, to love, to share. This is a precious moment. It is a little parenthesis in Eternity.”
- Paulo Coelho

“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”

- Dr. Seuss


And we shall meet again…
Full screen recommended.
Moody Blues, “The Day We Meet Again"

Musical Interlude: Moody Blues, "Isn't Life Strange"

Full screen recommended.
Moody Blues, "Isn't Life Strange"