Thursday, December 17, 2020
"This Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words"
"Winter Is Coming: 62% Of U.S. Business Owners 'Fear The Worst Is Still To Come'"
"Winter will officially arrive in a few days, but its gloomy effects are already impacting the survival of our population, our businesses, and our economy. As the pace of economic deterioration picks up speed due to the new restrictions in economic activity, our nation keeps being devastated on several different fronts and the consequences of it won't be solved with the arrival of a vaccine nor with a utopian V-shape recovery. We will be seeing the results of this winter's economic devastation for years. That's what we will be talking about in this video.
The current economic situation is making business owners fear they won't be able to make it to the start of spring. Sectors that rely on face to face interaction have been particularly impaired by so many rounds of shutdowns and this time might be the final round for many of them.
Right now, according to a brand new U.S. Chamber-MetLife poll, 62% of small-business owners are concerned with further impacts of the health crisis, saying they believe the worst moment of the crisis is still ahead of them. The same poll has also highlighted that most small business owners are in desperate need of federal assistance, with nearly 74% of the owners saying they need further aid to weather the fallout of the crisis. That figure rises to 81% for minority-owned businesses.
As we head towards a dark winter, a considerable amount of them can't even afford rent. According to an Alignable rent survey, 35 percent of all small businesses in the U.S. couldn’t pay their rent this month, up 3% from 32% in November. When businesses don't even find the means to pay rent and stay open, we can clearly understand that we have gotten to a point where there's no way to argue that this is simply a recession. When over a third of all small businesses in the world's richest country can't make enough revenue to keep their doors open, that is called an “economic collapse”.
To give you further proof, let's just spare a moment to examine what has been going on with federal tax receipts this year. In a recent note, former chief economist at Alliance Bernstein, Joseph Carson, has pointed out how weak tax receipts are sending a signal of economic distress. Carson outlines that now that we're 9 months into the downturn triggered by the health crisis, federal gross withheld income tax receipts declined 13% from a year ago. The tax data records from the US Treasury suggest that the slump in tax receipts over the past 9 months is the biggest ever recorded. The only historical parallel we can compare to is the 14% fall witnessed in 2009 during the Great Financial Recession.
In other words, the level of economic wreckage is just unprecedented. And every day it passes at the University of Chicago informed that the U.S. poverty rate has considerably climbed over the last five months, with 7.8 million Americans falling into poverty. The economists maintain that such a high spike in poverty was driven by two main reasons: Millions of Americans cannot find jobs, and government assistance for the unemployed has abruptly dwindled since the summer.
However, even in households with adult workers who are still collecting paychecks, poverty is not out of the picture. In fact, a recent report has described how thousands of military officials and their families have been suffering from food insecurity. This spring, the base has seen a 40 percent increase in requests for groceries.
As opposed to civilian families who managed to collect federal benefits and qualified for food programs, considering military families are often provided with housing allowance, that leaves them ineligible to receive food assistance, a quirk in the law that Congress has repeatedly failed to address. Although military families are only a small part of the tens of millions of food-insecure Americans, hunger experts say most people have no idea that military servicers often rely on external help to have enough to eat.
Gregory Mannarino, PM 12/17/20: “Today New All Time Highs For the Market, But a Monster Is Coming”
"A Look to the Heavens"
Chet Raymo, “Angling For Happiness”
"In the Inbox"
- Jose Orez
“The Christmas Truce of 1914”
"Year Zero" (Strong Language Alert!)
"Market Fantasy Updates AM 12/17/20
Must Watch! Gregory Mannarino, “Situation Hyper-Critical! The Meltdown Accelerating - Be Really For Anything”
"Parallel Ballots Cast In 7 States: Election Not Over"
Wednesday, December 16, 2020
“Wealthy Escape California; Fed Rescues Wall St.; Million Dollar Lake Havasu; Joel Osteen Bailout”
"Americans Are Panic Buying Lots Of Food As Fears Of A Deep Dark Winter Continue To Rise"
"Panic buying is getting worse amongst anxious consumers as we approach Christmas and New Year's Eve celebrations. Since the burst of the sanitary outbreak, we have witnessed several rounds of panic purchases that wiped out grocery shelves and prompted supply shortages all over the nation. After new lockdowns started to be enforced in several states, people rushed into the stores one more time to stockpile on essentials fearing strict movement limitations amid a dark winter.
Now, as festivities get closer, buyers have been massively stocking up on holidays related goods, even causing an unexpected shortage in Christmas trees due to the sudden and incredibly high spike in demand. But while some are being driven by panic, others have already exhausted all of their options and are being driven by complete desperation. That's what we are going to discuss in this video.
Goods have been flying off the shelves, and this time around their purchases aren't limited to toilet paper and cleaning supplies. Wine, meat, dairy products, pasta, baking mixes, and several holidays related products are disappearing from stores fairly quickly. Although some major food retailers have affirmed to have enough to attend to the demand, in multiple locations they have started to reinstate purchase limits on high-demand items, which has sparked anxiety among shoppers. Retailers have affirmed it's essential that to impose restrictions to prevent buyers from hoarding and ensure there won't be another round of shortages.
However, due to transportation issues supply shortages are expected to occur during the winter, and prices are projected to keep soaring in months ahead. At this stage of the crisis, the panic buying trend has extended its range to several different products, as Iacocca revealed. According to the National Retail Federation, the sale of holiday decorations, candy and gifts is expected to rise this year too. But as some of the most preferred items are already scarce on the shelves, prices for holiday items are also expected to rise.
The latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data pointed out that the consumer price index is up 3.6%. This current round of panic-driven stockpiling tendencies is being led by Americans' increasing fear of what might happen during this dark winter as well as a need for comfort by relying on traditions to shift the focus from the tragic events we have experienced this year. However, for some, this growing desire of running away from the spectrum of disconcerting news and upsetting circumstances has become a little too extreme, and now, they have been trying to overcompensate by celebrating the holidays to the max.
Consequently, and also very unexpectedly, a Christmas tree shortage is being registered across the nation. Jennifer Greene, the executive director of North Carolina Christmas Tree Association highlighted that media coverage about tree shortages may have spurred some of the panic buying behavior, but there are underlying reasons why people are in a hurry to guarantee their valued holiday symbol. “I think people want some joy and a bright spot, a light at the end of the tunnel,” Greene said. “It’s been a rough year for everyone, and Christmas is a happy time. They’re wanting to get that earlier and make it last longer in such a gloomy year.”
From food to cleaning products and even Christmas trees, panic buying is a reflection of how the sanitary outbreak and its collateral damages have impacted on the mindset of our population. In any case, those who can still work from home and buy their own food are on the most fortunate side of the spectrum.
A new survey conducted by market research company OnePoll found that roughly 4 in 10 Americans report that they experienced food insecurity for the first time this year, with about half of them revealing they’ve struggled to afford food, while 37% affirmed to have skipped meals so there was enough food for their children to eat. On average, there was a 60% increase in those seeking help from food banks across the nation. In some counties, one in two children are now facing hunger.