Monday, June 10, 2024

”The 5 Stages of Economic Collapse”

”The 5 Stages of Economic Collapse” 
by Dmitry Orlov

“Elizabeth Kübler-Ross defined the five stages of coming to terms with grief and tragedy as denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance, and applied it quite successfully to various forms of catastrophic personal loss, such as death of a loved one, sudden end to one’s career, and so forth. Several thinkers, notably James Howard Kunstler and, more recently John Michael Greer, have pointed out that the Kübler-Ross model is also quite terrifyingly accurate in reflecting the process by which society as a whole (or at least the informed and thinking parts of it) is reconciling itself to the inevitability of a discontinuous future, with our institutions and life support systems undermined by a combination of resource depletion, catastrophic climate change, and political impotence.

But so far, little has been said specifically about the finer structure of these discontinuities. Instead, there is to be found continuum of subjective judgments, ranging from “a severe and prolonged recession” (the prediction we most often read in the financial press), to Kunstler’s evocative but unscientific-sounding “clusterf**k,” to the ever-popular “Collapse of Western Civilization,” painted with an ever-wider brush-stroke.

For those of us who have already gone through all of the emotional stages of reconciling ourselves to the prospect of social and economic upheaval, it might be helpful to have a more precise terminology that goes beyond such emotionally charged phrases. Defining a taxonomy of collapses might prove to be more than just an intellectual exercise: based on our abilities and circumstances, some of us may be able to specifically plan for a certain stage of collapse as a temporary, or even permanent, stopping point.

Even if society at the current stage of socioeconomic complexity will no longer be possible, and even if, as Tainter points in his “Collapse of Complex Societies,” there are circumstances in which collapse happens to be the correct adaptive response, it need not automatically cause a population crash, with the survivors disbanding into solitary, feral humans dispersed in the wilderness and subsisting miserably. Collapse can be conceived of as an orderly, organized retreat rather than a rout.

For instance, the collapse of the Soviet Union – our most recent and my personal favorite example of an imperial collapse – did not reach the point of political disintegration of the republics that made it up, although some of them (Georgia, Moldova) did lose some territory to separatist movements. And although most of the economy shut down for a time, many institutions, including the military, public utilities, and public transportation, continued to function throughout. And although there was much social dislocation and suffering, society as a whole did not collapse, because most of the population did not lose access to food, housing, medicine, or any of the other survival necessities. The command-and-control structure of the Soviet economy largely decoupled the necessities of daily life from any element of market psychology, associating them instead with physical flows of energy and physical access to resources. Thus situation, as I argue in my forthcoming book, Reinventing Collapse, allowed the Soviet population to inadvertently achieve a greater level of collapse-preparedness than is currently possible in the United States.

Having given a lot of thought to both the differences and the similarities between the two superpowers – the one that has collapsed already, and the one that is collapsing as I write this – I feel ready to attempt a bold conjecture, and define five stages of collapse, to serve as mental milestones as we gauge our own collapse-preparedness and see what can be done to improve it.

Rather than tying each phase to a particular emotion, as in the Kübler-Ross model, the proposed taxonomy ties each of the five collapse stages to the breaching of a specific level of trust, or faith, in the status quo. Although each stage causes physical, observable changes in the environment, these can be gradual, while the mental flip is generally quite swift. It is something of a cultural universal that nobody (but a real fool) wants to be the last fool to believe in a lie.

Stages of Collapse:

Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that “the government will take care of you” is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost. As local social institutions, be they charities, community leaders, or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum, run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity” (Turnbull, "The Mountain People"). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes “May you die today so that I die tomorrow” (Solzhenitsyn, "The Gulag Archipelago"). There may even be some cannibalism.

Although many people imagine collapse to be a sort of elevator that goes to the sub-basement (our Stage 5) no matter which button you push, no such automatic mechanism can be discerned. Rather, driving us all to Stage 5 will require that a concerted effort be made at each of the intervening stages. That all the players seem poised to make just such an effort may give this collapse the form a classical tragedy – a conscious but inexorable march to perdition – rather than a farce (“Oops! Ah, here we are, Stage 5.” – “So, whom do we eat first?” – “Me! I am delicious!”) Let us sketch out this process.

Financial collapse, as we are are currently observing it, consists of two parts. One is that a part of the general population is forced to move, no longer able to afford the house they bought based on inflated assessments, forged income numbers, and foolish expectations of endless asset inflation. Since, technically, they should never have been allowed to buy these houses, and were only able to do so because of financial and political malfeasance, this is actually a healthy development. The second part consists of men in expensive suits tossing bundles of suddenly worthless paper up in the air, ripping out their remaining hair, and (some of us might uncharitably hope) setting themselves on fire on the steps of the Federal Reserve. They, to express it in their own vernacular, “f**ked up,” and so this is also just as it should be.

The government response to this could be to offer some helpful homilies about “the wages of sin” and to open a few soup kitchens and flop houses in a variety of locations including Wall Street. The message would be: “You former debt addicts and gamblers, as you say, ‘f****d up,’ and so this will really hurt for a long time. We will never let you anywhere near big money again. Get yourselves over to the soup kitchen, and bring your own bowl, because we don’t do dishes.” This would result in a stable Stage 1 collapse – the Second Great Depression.

However, this is unlikely, because in the US the government happens to be debt addict and gambler number one. As individuals, we may have been as virtuous as we wished, but the government will have still run up exorbitant debts on our behalf. Every level of government, from local municipalities and authorities, which need the financial markets to finance their public works and public services, to the federal government, which relies on foreign investment to finance its endless wars, is addicted to public debt. They know they cannot stop borrowing, and so they will do anything they can to keep the game going for as long as possible.

About the only thing the government currently seems it fit to do is extend further credit to those in trouble, by setting interest rates at far below inflation, by accepting worthless bits of paper as collateral and by pumping money into insolvent financial institutions. This has the effect of diluting the dollar, further undermining its value, and will, in due course, lead to hyperinflation, which is bad enough in any economy, but is especially serious for one dominated by imports. As imports dry up and the associated parts of the economy shut down, we pass Stage 2: Commercial Collapse.

As businesses shut down, storefronts are boarded up and the population is left largely penniless and dependent on FEMA and charity for survival, the government may consider what to do next. It could, for example, repatriate all foreign troops and set them to work on public works projects designed to directly help the population. It could promote local economic self-sufficiency, by establishing community-supported agriculture programs, erecting renewable energy systems, and organizing and training local self-defense forces to maintain law and order. The Army Corps of Engineers could be ordered to bulldoze buildings erected on former farmland around city centers, return the land to cultivation, and to construct high-density solar-heated housing in urban centers to resettle those who are displaced. In the interim, it could reduce homelessness by imposing a steep tax on vacant residential properties and funneling the proceeds into rent subsidies for the indigent. With plenty of luck, such measures may be able to reverse the trend, eventually providing for a restoration of pre-Stage 2 conditions.

This may or may not be a good plan, but in any case it is rather unrealistic, because the United States, being so deeply in debt, will be forced to accede to the wishes of its foreign creditors, who own a lot of national assets (land, buildings, and businesses) and who would rather see a dependent American population slaving away working off their debt than a self-sufficient one, conveniently forgetting that they have mortgaged their children’s futures to pay for military fiascos, big houses, big cars, and flat-screen television sets. Thus, a much more likely scenario is that the federal government (knowing who butters their bread) will remain subservient to foreign financial interests. It will impose austerity conditions, maintain law and order through draconian means, and aid in the construction of foreign-owned factory towns and plantations. As people start to think that having a government may not be such a good idea, conditions become ripe for Stage 3.

If Stage 1 collapse can be observed by watching television, observing Stage 2 might require a hike or a bicycle ride to the nearest population center, while Stage 3 collapse is more than likely to be visible directly through one’s own living-room window, which may or may not still have glass in it. After a significant amount of bloodletting, much of the country becomes a no-go zone for the remaining authorities. Foreign creditors decide that their debts might not be repaid after all, cut their losses and depart in haste. The rest of the world decides to act as if there is no such place as The United States – because “nobody goes there any more.” So as not to lose out on the entertainment value, the foreign press still prints sporadic fables about Americans who eat their young, much as they did about Russia following the Soviet collapse. A few brave American expatriates who still come back to visit bring back amazing stories of a different kind, but everyone considers them eccentric and perhaps a little bit crazy.

Stage 3 collapse can sometimes be avoided by the timely introduction of international peacekeepers and through the efforts of international humanitarian NGOs. In the aftermath of a Stage 2 collapse, domestic authorities are highly unlikely to have either the resources or the legitimacy, or even the will, to arrest the collapse the dynamic and reconstitute themselves in a way that the population would accept.

As stage 3 collapse runs its course, the power vacuum left by the now defunct federal, state and local government is filled by a variety of new power structures. Remnants of former law enforcement and military, urban gangs, ethnic mafias, religious cults and wealthy property owners all attempt to build their little empires on the ruins of the big one, fighting each other over territory and access to resources. This is the age of Big Men: charismatic leaders, rabble-rousers, ruthless Macchiavelian princes and war lords. In the luckier places, they find it to their common advantage to pool their resources and amalgamate into some sort of legitimate local government, while in the rest their jostling for power leads to a spiral of conflict and open war.

Stage 4 collapse occurs when society becomes so disordered and impoverished that it can no longer support the Big Men, who become smaller and smaller, and eventually fade from view. Society fragments into extended families and small tribes of a dozen or so families, who find it advantageous to band together for mutual support and defense. This is the form of society that has existed over some 98.5% of humanity’s existence as a biological species, and can be said to be the bedrock of human existence. Humans can exist at this level of organization for thousands, perhaps millions of years. Most mammalian species go extinct after just a few million years, but, for all we know, Homo Sapiens still have a million or two left.

If pre-collapse society is too atomized, alienated and individualistic to form cohesive extended families and tribes, or if its physical environment becomes so disordered and impoverished that hunger and starvation become widespread, then Stage 5 collapse becomes likely. At this stage, a simpler biological imperative takes over, to preserve the life of the breeding couples. Families disband, the old are abandoned to their own devices, and children are only cared for up to age 3. All social unity is destroyed, and even the couples may disband for a time, preferring to forage on their own and refusing to share food. This is the state of society described by the anthropologist Colin Turnbull in his book “The Mountain People.” If society prior to Stage 5 collapse can be said to be the historical norm for humans, Stage 5 collapse brings humanity to the verge of physical extinction.

As we can easily imagine, the default is cascaded failure: each stage of collapse can easily lead to the next, perhaps even overlapping it. In Russia, the process was arrested just past Stage 3: there was considerable trouble with ethnic mafias and even some warlordism, but government authority won out in the end. In my other writings, I go into a lot of detail in describing the exact conditions that inadvertently made Russian society relatively collapse-proof. Here, I will simply say that these ingredients are not currently present in the United States.

While attempting to arrest collapse at Stage 1 and Stage 2 would probably be a dangerous waste of energy, it is probably worth everyone’s while to dig in their heels at Stage 3, definitely at Stage 4, and it is quite simply a matter of physical survival to avoid Stage 5. In certain localities – those with high population densities, as well as those that contain dangerous nuclear and industrial installations – avoiding Stage 3 collapse is rather important, to the point of inviting foreign troops and governments in to maintain order and avoid disasters. Other localities may be able to prosper indefinitely at Stage 3, and even the most impoverished environments may be able to support a sparse population subsisting indefinitely at Stage 4.

Although it is possible to prepare directly for surviving Stage 5, this seems like an altogether demoralizing thing to attempt. Preparing to survive Stages 3 and 4 may seem somewhat more reasonable, while explicitly aiming for Stage 3 may be reasonable if you plan to become one of the Big Men. Be that as it may, I must leave such preparations as an exercise for the reader. My hope is that these definitions of specific stages of collapse will enable a more specific and fruitful discussion than the one currently dominated by such vague and ultimately nonsensical terms as “the collapse of Western civilization.”
o
Download "The Collapse of Complex Societies", 
by Joseph A. Tainter, here:

Adventures With Danno, "Grocery Items At Meijer"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 6/10/24
"Grocery Items At Meijer You Should Be 
Buying Before They Become Unaffordable!"
"I take you grocery shopping with me to Meijer to show how I was able to save money on many different food items. Shop with me as I attempt to find the best and budget food options available. These are items everyone should be buying before the prices go up!"
Comments here:

"How It Really Is"

 

"Evil Can Destroy the World"

"Evil Can Destroy the World"
By Paul Craig Roberts

"Israel is Evil personified. Israel is Evil embodied."
- Scott Ritter

"This map series shows the progressive theft of Palestine by Zionist Israel since 1947, with the complicity of Washington and Europe. Where did all the Palestinians who lived in the green areas of Palestine, almost the entirety of Palestine, in 1947 go? They were herded into refuge camps in Jordan and Lebanon.

The UN (second map from the left) planned to give Israel half of Palestine, although no one explained the UN’s ability to give away a people’s country. The UN’s generous redistribution of Palestine to Israel did not satisfy Israel who took the rest.

Zionist Israel’s theft of Palestine and ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from their own country was covered up each year along the way by the West pretending to be in favor of a “two state solution.” Of course, such a solution never materialized decade after decade as Israel claimed the entire territory.The “two state solution” let the West pretend it was doing the right thing while Israel stole the country and exiled the people, the remnants of which were confined to the Gaza ghetto, currently under destruction by Israel using American weapons and money.

America has been unable to do anything about this genocide of a country and a people because US presidents and members of the House and Senate are elected with the aid of Israeli campaign contributions. The billions of dollars that US taxpayers are forced to hand over to Israel every year come back to purchase our elections. Consequently, Washington answers to the Israel Lobby, not to the American people. We see this clearly in the invitation of the US Congress to Netanyahu who is under indictments both within Israel and by the International Criminal Court. Washington is determined to show that Netanyahu’s criminal indictments notwithstanding, Netanyahu is under the protection of the United States. In contrast, we are supposed to write Trump off as a gangster based on concocted indictments resting on nothing but opinions of prosecutors determined to keep Trump from the White House.

Israel also uses its American tribute to purchase pastors of evangelical churches who indoctrinate their congregations that it is God’s will for America to support Israel and for Israel to reclaim their home of 2,000 or more years ago, from which God dispelled a sinful Jewish population. Some of the evangelical churches are so captured that they are known as “Christian Zionists.”

What the “great moral West” doesn’t understand is that by supporting and defending Israel’s genocidal policy toward Palestinians, the “great moral West” has given its approval to genocide. So how is the West moral?

Even Putin congratulates Israel for its sins and crimes. Perhaps Putin does this because the Holocaust story is a way for Putin to emphasize that Russia is fighting nazis in Ukraine. Nevertheless, Putin’s support for Israel is extraordinary as it is Israel that is pressuring its American lapdog to attack Iran, which would be a catastrophe for Russia and China. Without Iran the efforts of Russia and China to organize Asia into a coherent trading bloc independent of the dollar is impossible. Instead CIA jihadists would be flowing into the Russian Federation, Central Asia and China.

America’s disgrace from supporting genocide is diminishing the ranks of qualified personnel in the US Department of State. Two more officials have resigned rather than be associated with Washington’s complicity in the mass murder of Palestinians.

Alexander Smith prepared a report for the US Agency for International Development on the extraordinary high rate of maternal and child mortality among Palestinians suffering the Israeli attack. He was quickly fired before he could deliver the report. He said: “I cannot do my job in an environment in which specific people cannot be acknowledged as fully human, or where gender and human rights principles apply to some, but not to others, depending on their race.”

Another State Department official, Stacy Gilbert resigned. She said she could no longer accept the State Department lies that Israel was not deliberately obstructing the flow of food or other aid into Gaza.

So far 33 State Department officials have resigned, leaving their comfortable high-paying jobs because they cannot stomach the immorality of being a US State Department employee. This is hopeful. It indicates that some Americans employed by Washington still have a moral conscience and will not serve Washington at the expense of their conscience.

The total evil that the Biden regime represents has the support of a large minority of American voters. That Americans will vote for evil shows how far down the drain America has gone. The question automatically arises: what is the United States other than a threat to life on earth, a threat to all civilization, to all known morality? How do we know that Satan doesn’t hold Washington in his hand?

We are faced with the possible outbreak of nuclear war, a death sentence for life on earth, and there is not a single Western leader trying to resolve the crisis. Zelensky has passed a law prohibiting negotiations with Russia to end the conflict. Washington’s response to Russia’s direct warnings is to turn the warnings into propaganda against Russia. As Putin says, we will see what happens."

"Wars And Rumors Of War"

Full screen recommended.
Times Of India, 6/10/24
"'Hezbollah Has 200,000 Weapons':
 Israel 'Can Be Defeated' In 24 Hours If It Declares War"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Times Of India, 6/10/24
"Hezbollah Attacks IDF Jets With Anti-Aircraft Missiles 
For The First Time Over Lebanon" 
"Hezbollah launched a barrage of anti-aircraft missiles at Israeli jets flying over southern Lebanon. In response, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah sites following attacks on Israeli territory. The IDF targeted Aitaroun and a military structure in the Rab El Thalathine area during these strikes. The militants in Lebanon tried to hit Israeli jets during the strikes, which the IDF confirmed. The Israeli military stated that Hezbollah used anti-aircraft guns against their fighter jets. The IDF claimed they targeted the Hezbollah cell responsible for the attempted attacks on the jets, striking it with drones near the coastal city of Tyre."
Comments here:
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Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 6/10/24
"Alastair Crooke: Israel and Reality"
Comments here:
o
Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 6/10/24
"Ray McGovern: Will Biden Heed Putin’s Warnings?"

"Join us in a compelling conversation with Ray McGovern, a former CIA analyst and co-founder of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS), as we tackle the pressing question: Will Biden Heed Putin’s Warnings? Ray brings his extensive experience in intelligence and foreign policy to provide an in-depth analysis of the current state of US-Russia relations and the potential ramifications of President Biden's decisions.

We explore the historical context of US-Russia interactions, the critical warnings issued by Vladimir Putin, and the strategic moves by both nations. Ray shares his expert insights on how these developments could impact global security and the geopolitical landscape. Tune in to gain a deeper understanding of the complexities and stakes involved in this high-stakes international issue. Whether you're a seasoned observer of global politics or just looking to understand the headlines, this conversation offers valuable perspectives and thought-provoking commentary."
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "Lions And Friends! This Is What You Need To Know!"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 6/10/24
"Lions And Friends! 
This Is What You Need To Know!"
Comments here:

Bill Bonner, "Triple F"

"Triple F"
The new credit-based dollar created a credit-based economy,
 which grew by borrowing money that didn’t exist.
 Real money must represent goods, services, and real assets.
by Bill Bonner

Wales, in the UK - "The proposition on the table is provocative. And illuminating. What if we Americans aren’t nearly as rich as we think we are? As outrageous as it seems, ‘fictitious wealth’ appears to explain why the richest country in the world still can’t pay its bills or win its wars. Simply put... the idea is that America’s fake money - introduced in 1971 - led to an economy with a lot of fake wealth. In short, much of US stock, bond, and real estate wealth... and much of the US economy itself (GDP)… was ‘f’-ed up --…fictitious, fraudulent, or fantasy.

The new credit-based dollar created a credit-based economy... which grew by borrowing money that didn’t exist. Real money must represent goods, services, and real assets. But this new money represented nothing. It was just hollow credit, brought forth by the feds and the banks, and lent out at artificially low rates.

It boosted GDP, stocks, bonds, and real estate... giving us the impression of great wealth... but the flip side of credit is debt... and the US now has almost $100 trillion of it. And as it increases, the interest expense rises too. Now, the US spends more on interest than on the Pentagon - an amount equal to half of the deficit for 2024.

Much of the new credit-money was borrowed by the feds themselves. The part of the economy directly controlled (by spending), or be-muddled (by state, local or federal regulations), by government rose from barely 10% in 1930 to closer to 50% today. Government spending is included in GDP figures... 100% of it. But very little government spending or regulation produces the kind of real wealth you need to pay off past debt and contribute to current prosperity.
Click image for larger size.
We’ve seen, too, that much of the wealth in the stock market is an illusion. Using very round numbers to avoid the pretense of precision, the market capitalization (the total value of all public companies) to GDP ratio for US stocks is historically around 80%. Today, the measure is closer to 200% (see chart above). And if that traditional relationship between US output and the companies that produced it were restored, about $20 trillion in ‘fictitious’ stock market wealth would have to be stripped from the asset side of the nation’s ledger.

That is just the stock market. If you’ll recall, the bond market topped out in July 2020. The downturn - in which the phony value in bonds is being erased - has been underway for almost four years. Charlie Bilello reports: "The US bond market is in a very different place than the stock market. While the S&P 500 has been hitting 25 all-time highs this year, the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index remains 11% below its peak from the summer of 2020. At 46 months and counting, this is by far the longest bond bear market in history."

Last week, Tom and Dan showed a chart, revealing the true value of America’s treasury debt. Adjusting current values to inflation (as measured by gold, not the CPI) we see that the real value of America’s debt has declined by about 75% since 1999 and by nearly 30% since bonds topped out in July 2020.

Tom says this may be the most important chart in US market history; it shows us what the ‘full faith and credit’ of the US is really worth. US bonds are supposed to be the safest credits in the world. But - again - we see that the ‘face’ value... beef-caked up by trillions in credit money... is very different from the scrawny real value. But it’s not just Treasury bonds that pretend to have value they don’t actually have. All across the fixed-return world, there are unrecognized losses and make-believe wealth. We’ll take a look tomorrow...

For now, Tom thinks the death spiral has begun. More and more borrowing drives up interest rates... making debt payments even harder to keep up with. What follows is a debt crisis, when much of what we thought was wealth is marked down, written off, or inflated away. We don’t know exactly when, what or how this will play out. But we’re willing to bet that many of our ‘here today’ assets will be ‘gone tomorrow.’

As for what happens to the nation’s political and social life, we leave you to use your imagination. Brookings says a third of the country lives ‘hand to mouth’ already. What happens when the mouth discovers that the hand is empty? More to come..."

Jim Kunstler, "If Wishes Were Fishes - a Teachable Intermezzo"

"If Wishes Were Fishes - a Teachable Intermezzo"
By Jim Kunstler

“Together we can finish the job.”
- “Joe Biden”

"This is the most significant reality of the world picture now: the wishes of the manager class are going in one direction while the actual dynamics of economy and politics go in the opposite direction. The managers wish for their management of systems to become as centralized and top-down as possible; but the very systems they manage are breaking down and seeking to reorganize at smaller scale, distributed locally. The tension entailed is explosive.

Forgive me for reiterating a basic principle driving this moment in history: everything organized at the gigantic scale is steaming toward failure: big governments, giant companies, the huge capital investment firms, global shipping, energy production, chain retailing, mass motoring, big electricity, big medicine, big education, big anything. They are all fixing to fail while our politicians and economists make plans based on consolidating them into one super-gigantic mega-system that will run flawlessly on computer tech magic.

The failures of each giant system will only amplify and ramify the failures in all the other systems. Take that as axiomatic. For instance, the fantastic failures in higher education now on display, largely due to the Marxian defeat of excellence, will implant a generation of incompetents in all hierarchies of management. That will result in an insidious matrix of bad decision-making. The Pareto 80-20 principle will ensure that 80-percent of all institutional energy will focus on propping up failing institutions with bad decisions that add up to broken business models (while 20-percent goes into actually carrying-out the bad decisions as policy). That explains how Pete Buttigieg’s Department of Transportation spent $7.5-billion to build seven electric car charging stations.

Similarly, if you have an urgent medical problem, the 80-percent of administrative clerks in your primary care doctor’s overgrown practice (with an assist from the health insurance company cohorts they must coordinate with) will actually manage to delay your treatment as long as possible, with a fair chance of disallowing it altogether. And if you happen to get treatment, there’s also an excellent chance you will be misdiagnosed and subjected to iatrogenic injury.

The 80-20 principle explains the stupendous mismanagement of the Covid-19 event, especially the “marketing” of mRNA vaccines as miracle remedies that turned out to be the opposite of beneficial. The result of that chain of bad decision-making will ensure that any widespread health crisis arising from the long-term effects of the Pfizer and Moderna Covid vaccines will destroy the hospital system. (It is already underway.) You can extrapolate that grandiose failure of competence to the World Health Organization and its efforts to orchestrate a new pandemic crisis.

You might have noticed that it is increasingly difficult to get replacement parts for any machine, most particularly cars. That’s a symptom of failure in several integrated systems that are breaking down now: the manufacture of products in distant lands, price disorder in the container-ship business, the collapse of the US trucking system (and with it, the just-in-time inventory model), and the inability of auto dealers to find competent mechanics (while the sinking middle class can no longer afford to buy the cars they sell under the most liberal financing schemes). Expect all that to intensify.

You’ll see similar dysfunction in the system that delivers food to the people of our country. Even as currently operating, with the supermarkets amply stocked, the triumph of poor decision-making has led to 80-percent of the products sold being some form of processed corn syrup and GMO grains marketed as “fun” snack-foods that have destroyed the health of a great many citizens (and overwhelmed the medical system with chronic illness). The breakdown of the US food system is now proceeding with idiotic policy from our government (actually every government in Western Civ is doing it) undermining farm operations, and most especially small farms, with egregious regulation. The pretext for this is the delusional hysteria over “climate change.” It gives the managers something to manage badly.

The large-scale farmers are also affected, of course, but their business model is already broken in other ways, mainly the gigantic cost of their “inputs” - fuel, fertilizer, herbicides and pesticides, and borrowed money to get the crop in. Political and economic management has arranged matters so that, in theory, the failed small farmers will be consolidated into the giant farms (which are also failing), but you can see how that’s going to work out. Before long, all farms will be unable to produce and, after a period of food shortage, perhaps famine, you will see the emergent reorganization of farming at the small scale minus the dead-weight of government regulation.

The dead weight will be gone because government will have destroyed its own legitimacy by making so many bad decisions that led to ramified systems failure of the kind described above. Government will also be starved operationally by the failure of its funding system (taxation) as its economists and their managerial counterparts in finance destroy our money via their remorseless attempts to create fake capital by main force (Modern Monetary Theory).

The upshot of all this is that actual dynamics in human affairs matter more than the grandiose wishes of mega-managers. They can wish for maximum control of everything all they want, but history is taking the world in another direction. Our broken systems for food, medicine, education, commerce will self-reorganize after a period of uncomfortable disorder, perhaps even epic disaster. I hope you see how this works."

"Economic Market Snapshot 6/10/24"

"Economic Market Snapshot 6/10/24"
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
"It's a Big Club, and you ain't in it. 
You and I are not in the Big Club."
- George Carlin
o
Market Data Center, Live Updates:
Comprehensive, essential truth.
Financial Stress Index

"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: creditequity valuationfunding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United Statesother advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Job cuts and much more.
Commentary, highly recommended:
"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
Oh yeah... beyond words. Any I know anyway...
And now... The End Game...
o

Greg Hunter, "It’s Trump vs WWIII"

"It’s Trump vs WWIII"
by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong says we are going to have a wild close to 2024. Let’s start with Biden’s new job approval rating from Martin Armstrong’s “Socrates” program, which is now only 6% to 7%. Armstrong explains, “It’s the old story of draining the swamp, but now, the swamp is an ocean. This is completely crazy. The cases against Trump show you how desperate they are here. The reason they want Biden, and they even blocked RFK Jr. from getting on the Democrat ticket, the reason they want him is he is just a sock puppet. He’s not really in charge. He’s not making any decisions.”

Are the Deep State globalist Democrats panicking over the 6% to 7% Biden approval rating? Top people on both sides know this is an accurate number. With about four months to go before the 2024 Election, are they now panicking over these dismal approval numbers? Armstrong says, “Oh, yes, they are panicking. I have been in politics for more than 40 years. I know how it works. All of a sudden, you see in the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, oh, Biden is slipping behind closed doors. That would not make the press unless they wanted it to. They are floating a ballon to see how it goes. All of a sudden, they want Biden to do a debate. Before, no debates. Why? Because they know he’s going to look bad. At the Democrat Convention, they will draft someone else, and that is most likely going to be Hillary.”

The economy and war are linked in a big way, according to Armstrong, and he explains, “You’ve got about $10 trillion of US debt that is maturing this year. You’ve got Secretary of State Blinken threatening China with war. China dumped $53 billion in US debt in the first quarter of 2024. That means China are sellers and not buyers. You had Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen flying to China asking, ‘Please don’t sell.’ It didn’t work. This is why they are talking about raising the capital gains to 44%. Why? If nobody is going to buy the debt, that’s when default comes. If you cannot sell the new debt to pay off the old debt, guess what? It’s done. This is how governments fall, and I have been warning them for decades that this is how it’s going to end. This is why they need war. This is why Europe is going into war. If you cannot sell the new debt, you have to default. If you have war, and that is what is really behind this, if you go into war, they get to default and blame Putin. In November, it’s going to be Trump vs World War III regardless who is on the other side. If you get Hillary or you get Biden, it’s the same thing. Hillary is a neocon, and Biden says yes to whatever the neocons want.” And the neocons clearly want war – a big one. There is much more in the 1-hour and 3-minute in-depth interview."

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong as he gives his analysis about unpayable global debt, world war and the 2024 Election.

Sunday, June 9, 2024

"Alert! We're 3 Meals To Anarchy, Grocery Stores Will Be Empty! Get Out Of The Cities!"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 6/9/24
"Alert! We're 3 Meals To Anarchy, 
Grocery Stores Will Be Empty! Get Out Of The Cities!"
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Musical Interlude: Bruce Springsteen, "My Hometown"

Bruce Springsteen, "My Hometown"

Feel familiar?

"A Look to the Heavens"

“While drifting through the cosmos, a magnificent interstellar dust cloud became sculpted by stellar winds and radiation to assume a recognizable shape. Fittingly named the Horsehead Nebula, it is embedded in the vast and complex Orion Nebula (M42). A potentially rewarding but difficult object to view personally with a small telescope, the above gorgeously detailed image was recently taken in infrared light by the orbiting Hubble Space Telescope in honor of the 23rd anniversary of Hubble's launch.
The dark molecular cloud, roughly 1,500 light years distant, is cataloged as Barnard 33 and is seen above primarily because it is backlit by the nearby massive star Sigma Orionis. The Horsehead Nebula will slowly shift its apparent shape over the next few million years and will eventually be destroyed by the high energy starlight.”

Chet Raymo, “Into The Night”

“Into The Night”
by Chet Raymo

“I first became intimate with the night sky on the sleeping porch of my grandmother’s house on Ninth Street in Chattanooga, Tennessee, during the early 1940s. A screened sleeping porch might be found attached to any southern home of a certain vintage and substance, usually on the second story at the back. On sultry summer nights you could move a cot or daybed onto the porch and take advantage of whatever breezes stirred the air. I slept there when I visited because it was the only place to find a spare bed. I was usually alone in that big spooky space, with only a thin wire mesh separating me from the many mysteries of the night.

Far off in the house I could hear the muffled voice of the big Stromberg-Carlson radio in the parlor, where grown-ups listened to news of the war or the boogie-woogie tunes of the Hit Parade. Outside was another kind of music, nearer, louder, pressing against the screen, which seemed to come from everywhere and nowhere, a million scratchy fiddles, out-of-key woodwinds, discordant timpani. These were the cicadas, crickets and tree frogs of the southern summer night, but to me at that time they were the sounds of the night itself, as if darkness had an audible element.

Some nights the distant horizon would be lit with a silent, winking illumination called “heat lightnin’.” And closer, against the dark grass of the badminton court, the scintillations of fireflies- “lightnin’ bugs”- splashed into brightness.

The constellations of fireflies were answered in the sky by stars, which on those evenings when the city’s lights were blacked out for air-raid drills, multiplied alarmingly. I would lie in my cot, eyes glued to the spangled darkness, waiting to hear the drone of enemy aircraft or see the flash of ack-ack. No aircraft appeared, no ack-ack tracers pierced the night, but soon the stars took on their own fierce reality, like vast squadrons of alien rocket ships moving against the inky dark of Flash Gordon space.

In time I came to recognize patterns, although I did not yet know their names: the Scorpion creeping westward, dragging its stinger along the horizon; the teapot of Sagittarius afloat in the white river of the Milky Way; Vega at the zenith; the kite of Cygnus. As the hours passed, the Big Dipper clocked around the Pole. And sometimes, in late summer, I would wake in the predawn hour to find Orion sneaking into the eastern sky, pursuing the teacup of the Pleiades.

One memorable Christmas of my childhood, my father received a star book as a gift: “A Primer for Star-Gazers” by Henry Neely. As he used the book to learn the stars and constellations, he included me in his activities. The book was Santa’s gift to him. The night sky was his gift to me.

That book, now long out of print, is still in my possession. A glance takes me back half a century to evenings on the badminton court in the back yard of our own new home in the Chattanooga suburbs, gazing upwards with my father to a drapery of brilliant stars flung across the gap between tall dark pines. He told me stories of the constellations as he learned them. Of Orion and the Scorpion. Of the lovers Andromeda and Perseus, and the monster Cetus. Of the wood nymph Callisto and her son Arcas, placed by Zeus in the heavens as the Big and Little Bears. No child ever had a better storybook than the ever-changing page of night above our badminton court. My father also taught me the names of stars: Sirius, Arcturus, Polaris, Betelgeuse, and other, stranger names, Zubenelgenubi and Zubeneschamali, the claws of the Scorpion. The words on his tongue were like incantations that opened the enchanted cave of night.

He was a man of insatiable curiosity. His stories of the stars were more than “connect the dots.” He wove into his lessons what he knew of history, science, poetry and myth. And, of course, religion. For my father, the stars were infused with unfathomable mystery, their contemplation a sort of prayer.

That Christmas book of long ago was a satisfactory guide to star lore, but as I look at it today I see that it conveyed little of the intimacy I felt as I stood with my father under the bright canopy of stars. Nor do any of the other more recent star guides that I have seen quite capture the feeling I had as a child of standing at the door of an enchanted universe, speaking incantations. What made the childhood experience so memorable was a total immersion in the mystery of the night- the singing of cicadas, the whisper of the wind in the pines, and, of course, my father’s storehouse of knowledge with which he embellished the stars. He taught me what to see; he also taught me what to imagine.”

The Poet: David Whyte, "Sweet Darkness"

"Sweet Darkness"

"When your eyes are tired the world is tired also.
When your vision has gone no part of the world can find you.
Time to go into the dark where the night has eyes
to recognize its own.
There you can be sure you are not beyond love.
The dark will be your womb tonight.
The night will give you a horizon further than you can see.

You must learn one thing: the world was made to be free in.
Give up all the other worlds except the one to which you belong.
Sometimes it takes darkness and the sweet confinement of your aloneness
to learn anything or anyone that does not bring you alive is too small for you."

- David Whyte,
"House of Belonging"

"One Day..."

 

Jeremiah Babe, "When People Get Hungry The Real Trouble Begins"

Jeremiah Babe, 6/9/24
"When People Get Hungry The Real Trouble Begins; 
Small Businesses On Life Support"
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o
Full screen recommended.
Frugal Recipes, 6/9/24
"The Government Will Seize Your Foods - 
You Have Been Warned!"
"Are you prepared for the looming threat of food shortages? In this eye-opening video, we delve into the pressing issue of food scarcity and how it could impact you. From empty shelves to an impending crisis, we uncover the alarming truth about the potential food shortage coming to America. Key topics covered include the signs of food shortages, how to prep for a food crisis, and the importance of stockpiling food for emergency situations. Don't wait until it's too late – take action now to safeguard your food supply and ensure your long-term survival. Watch this video to learn how to stock up wisely and prepare for the uncertainties ahead."
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It just never ends...

The Daily "Near You?"

Holly, Michigan, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"I Went to Moscow's Largest Flea Market: Izmaylovo Market"

Full screen recommended.
Travelling with Russell, 5/9/24
"I Went to Moscow's Largest Flea Market: Izmaylovo Market"
"What is it like at Izmailovsky Market, Moscow's largest flea market. Discover with me what its like inside the famous Izmailovsky Kremlin, the site of the largest open air market in Moscow."
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"Don't Wonder..."

"Don't wonder why people go crazy. Wonder why they don't.
In the face of what we can lose in a day, in an instant,
wonder what the hell it is that makes us hold it together."
- "Grey's Anatomy"

"NATO's War Preparations Against Russia - Nuclear Conflict Looms"

Full screen recommended.
Larry C. Johnson, 6/9/24
"NATO's War Preparations Against Russia - 
Nuclear Conflict Looms"
"In this crucial analysis, Larry C. Johnson sheds light on NATO's escalating military preparations for a potential conflict with Russia. As tensions rise, the possibility of nuclear engagement casts a long shadow over global security. This video delves into the strategic moves and countermeasures, revealing how these developments could potentially lead to a nuclear crisis. Furthermore, we explore the internal challenges and weakening cohesion within the Western alliance, uncovering the implications for global power dynamics. Join us as we unpack the complexities of this critical situation and what it could mean for the future of international relations."
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"We Must Begin..."

"We are fast moving into something, we are fast flung into something like asteroids cast into space by the death of a planet, we the people of earth are cast into space like burning asteroids and if we wish not to disintegrate into nothingness we must begin to now hold onto only the things that matter while letting go of all that doesn't. For when all of our dust and ice deteriorates into the cosmos we will be left only with ourselves and nothing else. So if you want to be there in the end, today is the day to start holding onto your children, holding onto your loved ones; onto those who share your soul. Harbor and anchor into your heart justice, truth, courage, bravery, belief, a firm vision, a steadfast and sound mind. Be the person of meaningful and valuable thoughts. Don't look to the left, don't look to the right; we simply don't have the time. Never be afraid of fear."
- C. JoyBell C.

"Real Estate Agents Are Being Wiped Out By The Ongoing Housing Crisis"

Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 6/9/24
"Real Estate Agents Are Being Wiped Out 
By The Ongoing Housing Crisis"

"The U.S. housing market is so crazy right now that real estate agents are literally going broke as sales activity freezes all over the country. As it turns out, the Federal Reserve's bid to cool inflation by leaving interest rates higher for longer is absolutely choking the nation's real estate market, not only by pushing millions of prospective buyers out of the market, but also by forcing realtors to rethink their place in the sector.

New reports highlight that high borrowing costs for home loans have depressed demand for homes in the U.S., a trend that has started to be observed in throughout 2022 and 2023, and continued to accelerate in 2024. Last year, sales of previously occupied homes actually fell to their lowest level in 28 years, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Consequently, tens of thousands of real estate agents have abandoned the industry in recent months, data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows. As recently as 2021, when the average long-term mortgage rate was around 2.6%, 549,000 people worked full-time as real estate agents. Today, there are less than 440,000 real estate brokers and sales agents in America, a decline of more than 70,000 professionals.

At the moment, mortgage rates are more than double what they were just a few years ago, the supply of homes is at historic lows and prices are at record highs, dissuading buyers from getting into homeownership. The sluggish housing market means business has slowed, and now many realtors that earned hefty sums in commissions during the pandemic are struggling to make a living.

During an interview with The Washington Post, Florida-based real estate agent April Strickland revealed that there are more realtors working in her Gainsville market than homes being sold. "Quite frankly, realtors are running out of money," Strickland stressed. An analysis by the Consumer Federation of America in January found that nearly half of the real estate agents sampled had sold one or no homes the previous year. Part of that is because many realtors work had to take a second job to make ends meet, researchers noted.
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"How It Really Is"

 

Adventures With Danno, "Buying A Bunch Of Things At IKEA"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 6/9//24
"Buying A Bunch Of Things At IKEA
Getting Completely Lost In The Maze!"
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Dan, I Allegedly, "Do You Want to Pay With Cash? That Will Cost You More"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, AM 6/9/2
"Do You Want to Pay With Cash? 
That Will Cost You More"
"Businesses are not accepting cash. If you want to use cash, you will have to pay a fee to use cash. Some banks are even charging for cash deposits."
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