Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Bill Bonner, "The New Fraud"

"The New Fraud"
Either you decide what to do with your time and money... or someone else decides 
for you. And when others decide, the money tends to go in their direction, not yours.
by Bill Bonner

Dublin, Ireland - "Sad to report, but a ‘new spirit of cooperation’ has descended on Washington... like a toxic smog. Are they cooperating to lower the deficit... balance the budget, bring the troops home and bring the debt under control? Are they coming together to cut off US support for the bloodshed in the Ukraine and Gaza? Are they rallying to a common cause... of peace and prosperity?

Really, dear reader... you disappoint us. Of course, they’re not. They’ve come together, like a pair of desperadoes, making plans to rob a bank - the bank where you keep your money. Yes, Republicans and Democrats... blue and red... are joining forces to make things worse for all of us. David Leonhardt at The New York Times: "A New Centrism Is Rising in Washington." "Call it neopopulism: a bipartisan attitude that mistrusts the free-market ethos instead of embracing it.

In a country that is supposed to have a gridlocked federal government, the past four years are hard to explain. These years have been arguably the most productive period of Washington bipartisanship in decades.

During the Covid pandemic, Democrats and Republicans in Congress came together to pass emergency responses. Under President Biden, bipartisan majorities have passed major laws on infrastructure and semiconductor chips, as well as laws on veterans’ health, gun violence, the Postal Service, the aviation system, same-sex marriage, anti-Asian hate crimes and the electoral process. On trade, the Biden administration has kept some of the Trump administration’s signature policies and even expanded them. The trend has continued over the past month, first with the passage of a bipartisan bill to aid Ukraine and other allies and to force a sale of TikTok by its Chinese owner."

‘The new centrism’ is a fraud. Republicans and Democrats have been conspiring to rip off the public for decades. Lately, they’ve gotten bolder. Poor Leonhardt thinks the two parties collaborate to create a better society... one in which same sex marriage is de rigueur and anti-Asian hate crimes are taboo. But these social norms have nothing to do with capitalism. You can wear your underwear on your head; capitalism doesn’t care.

‘Capitalism’ just describes the infinitely complex and always evolving ways people work together to get what they want. It’s what’s left after the feds interfere. It doesn’t care who you marry or who you hate. Up to you.

Leonhardt rejoices that we now have a Congress that ‘gets things done.’ But the more it does, the less room is left for capitalism to do what it does - produce the goods and services that people actually want.

And there is the real problem. It is an error of commission, not omission. In 1930, the government spent only 4% of GDP. Now, the Federales take 24%. The states take another 12%. And add in the part of the GDP controlled, directed, or subverted by federal and state regulation, and the total easily tops 50%. Capitalism still does what it always does. But it has much less room to do it than it used to.

The fault lies in too much cooperation between Republicans and Democrats - too many laws... too much spending... too much regulation, too many sanctions, too many wars and too much debt.

One of the parties should have been a stick in the mud, quietly resisting... urging caution... preaching humility... and voting ‘no.’ Instead, both vote for more power and wealth for themselves and their friends. Call it what you want, but this has nothing to do with a new, improved form of capitalism. At the end of the day, it all comes down to a simple question: who decides? Either you decide what to do with your time and money... or someone else decides for you. And when others decide, the money tends to go in their direction, not yours.
Click image for larger size.
Source: April 2024 Monthly Statement of the US Treasury
The facts are well known. So far this year, the feds have received $3 trillion in tax revenues. Theoretically, as a voter, you have some say in it. But as a practical matter, what you want hardly matters.

But wait, it’s worse. This fiscal year the feds have already spent almost $4 trillion. And the deficit grows with every one of these vote-buying giveaways that Leonhardt regards as signifying “the most productive period... in decades.” What’s really going on? The politicians buy votes; you pay for them.

At the current rate, the nation is headed for a debt crisis, a depression and a period of sustained inflation - things you probably don’t want, but will be imposed on you by bi-partisan consensus. Dear Readers know all about it already. They are prepared - with gold buried in their backyards... and up-to-date passports in their back pockets. No need to go on. But the more the parties work together... the worse it gets. Gridlock is far better."

"Middle East Crisis 5/28/24"

Full screen recommended.
Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 5/28/24
"Col. Douglas Macgregor: Escalation at Israel’s Borders"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Times Of India, 5/28/24
"Saudi Arabia's MBS Shocks Israel, 
Embraces Staunch Enemy Of Tel Aviv & Netanyahu"
Saudi Arabia has for the first time appointed its ambassador to Damascus in over a decade following the thaw in ties since 2023. The appointment comes at a time when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman is attempting to repair ties with regional rival Iran - a close ally of Syria and also Russia.
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
OpenmindedThinker Show, 5/28/24
"8 More European Nations Abandon Israel After Rafah Massacre;
 Netanyahu Loses Europe!"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Tech Show, 5/28/24
"Iranan Just Blamed Israel For The Death Of Their 
President After He Died In A Helicopter Crash!"
In this video, we look at the new and shocking incident in which Iran blames Israel for the untimely death of its President, Ebrahim Raisi. The Iranian leader died in a sudden and deadly helicopter accident, a tragic incident that shocked the country and the entire community. We investigate the facts surrounding the incident, the instant reactions of Iranian officials, and the strong accusations levelled against Israel.

The video presents a full study of the incident's geopolitical consequences, taking into account Iran and Israel's already hostile relations. We examine the historical backdrop of Iran's hatred as well as the current condition of Middle Eastern politics to determine the likely motivations for its charges. In addition, we examine the global response to President Raisi's death, as well as the potential implications for international relations and regional stability.

Our experts discuss the impact of President Ebrahim Raisi's death on Iran's political landscape, including who might succeed him and how this may affect Iran's internal and foreign policies. The video also shows the investigation into the helicopter crash, which sheds light on the ongoing efforts to determine the reason and any potential foul play. Join us as we deconstruct this difficult and delicate issue, presenting you with the most recent developments and in-depth analysis of this unfortunate incident.
Comments here:

Stipendium peccati mors est, Israel... So be it!

Dan, I Allegedly, "The Death of the Dollar Store"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 5/28/24
"The Death of the Dollar Store"
We are seeing the demise of discount retail stores. We have just witnessed 
the death of the dollar store. Now we are seeing dollar tree have five dollar items.
Comments here:

Jim Kunstler, "Saving our Democracy This Memorial Day"

"Saving our Democracy This Memorial Day"
by Jim Kunstler

“We must stop Donald Trump.”
- President “Joe Biden”
"Surely it was the right thing to do for President “Joe Biden” to remind the nation of the tragic loss of George Floyd four years ago this Memorial Day weekend. At the time, the man known as “the Black Thomas Edison” was rumored to be this close to achieving an economically viable system for producing electricity via atomic fusion using the fentanyl molecule (C22H28N2O) combined with the nuclei of alcohol (C2H6O), releasing enough energy from one gram to power a city the size of Minneapolis for a day. The math he left behind on his chalkboard spells it out:

17.6 MeV×1.60218×10?13 J/MeV?2.82×10?12 J

You see how that works? Alas, Dr. Floyd had apparently ingested a small amount of these experimental substances accidently before leaving his lab May 25, 2020, when he encountered the white supremacist police officer Derek Chauvin outside a Cup Foods convenience store in Minneapolis’s “Powderhorn” neighborhood. For reasons never understood, despite manifold judicial inquiries, the officer dragged the Great Man out of his car - where he was polishing some of the requisite algebra in his notebook - and for no reason at all placed one knee, and all his weight, on Dr. Floyd’s neck, constricting his airway and causing his death. The nation erupted in violence, and you know the rest of the story: no cheap energy for you, you nation of white supremacist asswipes!

And so it has gone since that fateful day: one darn thing after another. Luckily though - and with a little help from Mark Zuckerberg’s Center for Tech and Civic Life (CTCL) - the vigilant “Joe Biden” presides in the White House, keeping America safe for democracy, by democracy, and of democracy. The country has never experienced so much democracy. The Brookings Institution even warns that the country might be close to a democracy overload, in which the popular will is so immense that everyone in all fifty states thinks the same morally correct thoughts all day long without giving offense or making any space unsafe or dis-including any diverse category of human (except white supremacists) from his, her, or they’s share of the nation’s limitless wealth.

“Joe Biden” has been especially effective at containing the Grand Golem of all white supremacists, Trump, from deconstructing our utopian democracy. This Trump uttered perfidious misinformation that the 2020 election was less than fair and upright. He is under indictment in Fulton County, GA, for conspiring to transmit this incorrect thinking to other white supremacists and creating an unsafe space for GA Sec’y of State Brad Raffensperger by asking him to “find” additional votes. What log was Bradraff supposed to look under, anyway (ha ha!)?

The case is being guided by Fulton County DA, the indomitable Fani Willis, at least for now, as she awaits a process known as getting the bidness from a white supremacist so-called ethics committee in the Georgia State Senate, where she has been falsely accused of mis-spending state money on vacations with erstwhile special prosecutor Nathan Wade. These trips were, of course, fact-finding efforts. One fact found is that the white supremacist cruise ship directors attempt to kill black people by luring them into all-you-can-eat buffets at sea, from which escape is impossible.

“Joe Biden” also got Attorney General Merrick Garland to appoint Lawfare paladin Jack Smith to prosecute this nefarious Trump in the most upright of all federal court districts, Washington, DC, for instigating what “Joe Biden” recently called an “erection” against our democracy. Trump, you see, told a gigantic mob of white supremacists to penetrate our nation’s capitol building so as to obstruct certification of the 2020 electoral vote and murder then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi, if possible, along with all congresspersons of color. Legal experts at MSNBC, Andrew Weissmann (of the Mueller Special Counsel office) and Andy McCabe (former Deputy Director of the FBI), have already found this Trump guilty, and they know about these matters better than anybody, so the trial under Judge Tanya Chutkan may be unnecessary.

Things are not going quite so well for SC Smith in the Martin County Federal Court of Judge Aileen Cannon, where this Trump stands accused of fobbing off with classified government documents, claiming some fabricated sort of presidential privilege - unlike “Joe Biden” who got his classified docs before he was president and therefore does not have to claim any such privilege (and was understandably “forgetful” when asked about the docs by the other SC Robert Hur). In any case, AG Garland can always dispatch an FBI SWAT team to Judge Cannon’s home to spur an attitude adjustment on the bench, if required.

Hopes really rest, though, on the current case against the Grand Golem Trump in Judge Juan Merchan’s Manhattan courtroom, where the most supreme of all white supremacists stands accused of book-keeping irregularities in furtherance of federal crimes so unspeakable that they have never actually been spoken. The case, engineered by veteran DC Golem hunters Mary McCord, Norm Eisen, Lisa Monaco, and Matthew Colangelo, fronted by Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, goes to the jury after final arguments this week.

Judge Merchan is expected to instruct the jury to vote guilty because no other conclusion is possible. Thus, Judge Merchan will be celebrated far and wide for saving our democracy. But that’s not all. After the most excellent verdict of guilty X-23-Plus, he will have the pleasure of sentencing this Trump to life in the Rikers Island prison complex, where it will be difficult for the Grand Golem to organize any white supremacist activities and will be relegated to a diet of baloney sandwiches for the duration of his term.

The only downside for this scenario is that Trump might get elected President of the USA despite conviction, and on January 20, 2025, commence operations to put “Joe Biden” and all the others in his train of officials in jail for the rest of their natural lives. You have to wonder if they were thinking about that this holiday weekend."

MUST VIEW! "Israel's Rafah Massacre: They Think They Can Get Away With Anything"

Full screen recommended.
Owen Jones, 5/27/24
"Israel's Rafah Massacre: 
They Think They Can Get Away With Anything"
"Israel is behaving like this because it knows its Western 
protectors will let it get away with everything and anything."
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Times Of India, 5/28/24
"'Only Corpses Will Return': 
Hamas' Ultimatum For Netanyahu After Israel's Rafah Assault"
Hamas has issued the most dangerous threat to Benjamin Netanyahu's government. The threat comes after 45 Palestinians were burnt to death in the city of Rafah. Hamas told Israel that all its captives might return as corpses if this massacre continues. Hamas officials accused the Israeli Army of killing its own citizens held in the Gaza Strip.
Comments here:

Monday, May 27, 2024

"Putin’s Nuclear Warning To Blinken & NATO Is No Bluff - Scott Ritter"

Danny Haiphong, 5/27/24
"Putin’s Nuclear Warning to Blinken & 
NATO is No Bluff - Scott Ritter"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Redacted, 5/27/24
"NATO Is Making a Deadly Mistake And WW3
 Will Look Unlike Anything We've Ever Seen" 
Comments here:

"10 Food Items You Should Be Adding To Your Pantry Right Now!"

Adventures With Danno, 5/27/24
"10 Food Items You Should Be Adding
 To Your Pantry Right Now!"
10 food items that we are expecting a massive shortage of in 2024. These items are
 continuing to disappear on store shelves as well, making the prices very unaffordable!
Comments here:

Jeremiah Babe, "Wake Up, The Collapse Is In Progress Right Now

Jeremiah Babe, 5/27/28
"Wake Up, The Collapse Is In Progress Right Now
Institutions Are Crumbling All Around You"
Comments here:

"15 Fast Food Chains Being Financially Eviscerated In 2024"

Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 5/27/24
"15 Fast Food Chains Being 
Financially Eviscerated In 2024"

"Managing a restaurant is not an easy job. Managing hundreds of restaurants can be even more challenging. Amid inflationary pressures and changing consumer preferences, some of the biggest fast food chains in America are struggling to stay afloat. Many are being forced to shut down dozens of restaurants as consumers become more price-sensitive. Others are doing everything they can to survive in this highly competitive environment.

Industry experts say this trend is expected to accelerate as consumer spending continues to slow down. They are telling the public to buckle up because 2024 could see several familiar names disappear from the dining landscape. Is your go-to spot on the line? You will probably find out at the end of this video."
Comments here:
1.Kona Grill 2.Starbucks 3.KFC 4.McDonald's 5.Sizzler 6.Red Lobster 7.Steak 'n Shake 8.Outback Steakhouse 9.Buffalo Wild Wings 10.Popeyes 11. Joe's Crab Shack 12.Quiznos 13.Fuddrucker's 14.Corner Bakery 15.Old Country Buffet

Musical Interlude: 2002, “Where The Stars And Moon Play”

Full screen recommended.
2002, “Where The Stars And Moon Play”
“Pamela and Randy Copus are the duo known as 2002. Randy Copus plays piano, electric cello, guitar, bass and keyboards. Pamela Copus plays flutes, harp, keyboards and a wind instrument called a WX5. Both musicians also provide all of the vocals on their albums, recording their voices many, many times and layering them to create a "virtual choir" with a celestial, angelic quality.”

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Also known as the Cigar Galaxy for its elongated visual appearance, M82 is a starburst galaxy with a superwind. In fact, through ensuing supernova explosions and powerful winds from massive stars, the burst of star formation in M82 is driving the prodigious outflow of material. Evidence for the superwind from the galaxy’s central regions is clear in this sharp composite image, based on data from small telescopes on planet Earth.
The composite highlights emission from filaments of atomic hydrogen gas in reddish hues. The filaments extend for over 10,000 light-years. Some of the gas in the superwind, enriched in heavy elements forged in the massive stars, will eventually escape into intergalactic space. Triggered by a close encounter with nearby large galaxy M81, the furious burst of star formation in M82 should last about 100 million years or so. M82 is 12 million light-years distant, near the northern boundary of Ursa Major.”

John Wilder, "Memorial Day, 2024"

AA gun at Corregidor
"Memorial Day, 2024"
by John Wilder

“If words cannot repay the debt we owe these men, surely with our actions we must strive to keep faith with them and with the vision that led them to battle and to final sacrifice.”
- Ronald Reagan

This was originally written in 2023. It says what I want to say in 2024.

"Last year when The Mrs. was putting flowers on the graves of her relatives, my job was to drive the car while she located the locations. It was her first year when she actively did that for all of her relatives. Her mother had done that previously, but since my mother-in-law passed, that duty of remembering the family had fallen to The Mrs.

I saw one gravesite in particular, and I decided to research it. It stuck out, because it was the grave of a United States Army officer who died in May of 1942. I was curious. Thankfully, there was at least some information about this officer online. He had been born elsewhere, but went to high school here in Modern Mayberry. His particulars weren’t all that unusual for a young man in the 1930s: he loved baseball, he graduated, went to college, got a degree, got a job, and got married.

While in college, he was in ROTC, so he graduated as a 1st Lieutenant in the Army Reserve. I think even in the mid-1930s people could see the writing on the wall that there was the real possibility of war, so I imagine a core group of people with officer training was just what they wanted on the shelf.

His life was, I imagine, the same as millions of lives in that quasi-Depressionary era. He and his wife welcomed a baby into the world 1940, but by early 1941 the young officer had been drafted back into the Army. He was sent, half a world away, to Manila. I’m sure he told his wife as they shipped him off that his job, thankfully, was to be in the rear with the gear. It would be other people that would really be in the crosshairs of the enemy. Besides, it would be crazy of the Japanese to make a strike at Manilla. That would mean war!

He was at the airfield in Manilla on December 8, 1941, when the Japanese attacked. The planes he was supposed to serve hadn’t arrived. The troops that were supposed to protect the airfield hadn’t arrived. Yet his Company had. On Christmas Eve, 1941, his group was given the task of demolishing the airstrip and leaving nothing the Japanese could make use of. This is generally not a good sign.

Then, every man in his Company was given a rifle and told they were now members of the Provisional Air Corps Infantry. This is an even worse sign.

Our young officer and his troops were then ordered to join the defense of Bataan. Bataan is a peninsula that forms the northern part of the entrance to Manila Harbor. To really control Manila and use it as a base, you have to control Bataan. The original allied plans had called for falling back to Bataan and holding out, but MacArthur had thought that defeatist, and planned on a more active defense.

When the Japanese attacked, there weren’t enough supplies for MacArthur’s plan, so they fell back to Bataan, where there also weren’t enough supplies for the defense of Bataan because they stopped shipping those because MacArthur had changed his mind.

The Japanese general who would later be fired because it took him too long to defeat the combined American-Filipino army at Bataan also noted that the Americans had numerical superiority, and in his opinion, could have retaken Manila. I’m not sure that going through this exercise made me think more highly of MacArthur...

If you’re not familiar with the Battle of Bataan, it took over three months, and ended up the largest U.S. Army surrender since the Civil War. Over 76,000 troops were captured. To my knowledge, there is no written record of the Provisional Air Corps Infantry during the Battle of Bataan, though there is a record that on March 4, the 1st Lieutenant was promoted to Captain, just before MacArthur high-tailed it out of the Philippines to safety in Australia.

The troops at Bataan were officially surrendered on April 9, 1942. But in this case, the Provisional Air Corps Infantry was not part of the surrender, and was ordered to the island of Corregidor. Over 20% of the men of the Company had already been lost.

Corregidor was an island that resembled a battleship – at the time of the Japanese invasion, it was bristling with coastal defense guns, mortars, anti-aircraft guns, and minefields. Now that Bataan was taken, the last thing required to control Manilla Bay was that the island forts fall. Corregidor was, by far, the biggest of these.

The Navy ran the guns, but the defense of the beach was the responsibility of the 4th Marine Regiment, along with a ragtag group of other orphan units, including at least one Company from the Provisional Air Corps Infantry and a young Captain from Modern Mayberry, who were sent into the foxholes with the Marines to guard the beaches since they had combat experience from Bataan.

Sometime in early May, the young Captain was in one of those foxholes with several Marines, and a Japanese artillery shell hit, killing them all. Even the very date this happened isn’t clear, and his family wouldn’t even hear of his death until a year later.

I don’t know what this young officer from Modern Mayberry did during his time in battle on Bataan and Corregidor – it’s nearly certain that no one alive does. His wife later remarried, half a decade after finding out her husband was dead. His son still bears the name of a father he never knew, if he’s still living.

There is a white cross in a field in Manilla, surrounded by green grass that is regularly cut, where it is said, his body lies. The marker here in Modern Mayberry is only for remembrance, to let people like me know he lived.

And, I saw it, and learned his story, and every year around this time, I tell a few people from Modern Mayberry who haven’t heard about him. The Mrs. plans to put some flowers out for him, but even if she doesn’t, I’ll spend some time thinking about him."

Bill Bonner, "Revelation"

"Death on a Pale Horse" by Benjamin West
"Revelation"
by Bill Bonner

Dublin, Ireland - "Today is Memorial Day in America. It’s a holiday established during the Civil War to honor those who have died in military service to their country. We’ve written an entire book honoring The Idea of America. But today, we’ll leave that idea aside.

For the benefit of new readers, and ourselves, we reveal our creed…as succinctly as possible. There are dots to connect, between politics and markets. And while our beat is money, we live in a political age. We can’t ignore it.

The best we can do is try and see the big picture. That’s what we do in this musings every day at Bonner Private Research. And then, behind the curtain, for our paying subscribers, we try to give them the specific investment advice they need, first to avoid ‘The Big Loss’ and second, to make a respectable profit (more on that later from Dan).

Hidden Patterns: We believe there are patterns to just about everything. There is a deep and powerful Gulf Stream, for example; it takes warm water from the Gulf of Mexico, carries it across the North Atlantic, and makes Northern Europe habitable. But looking only at the surface waves, you wouldn’t see it.

Likewise, you can’t tell much from the day-to-day market action. But there are still hidden trends. The most important of them is what we call the Primary Trend. It marks the basic direction of prices, often for many decades.

We also think that stories have ‘morals’ – lessons, distilled from generations of experience – that are found in popular sayings, novels, the Bible, and “old wives’ tales.” Rarely are they revealed by economic theory or financial analysis.

Wealth is created by people who produce goods and services for each other. Anything the government does to interfere with this commerce reduces the total material satisfaction of the public. But wait! We recognize that material satisfaction – as in, having more wealth – is not the only motivation driving humans. Sometimes, they seem to want nothing more than to make damn fools of themselves. (The Salem Witch Trials, Napoleon’s March on Moscow, WWI, Mao’s Cultural Revolution, War on Terror etc.)

From an economic perspective, government is fundamentally a win-lose, coercive enterprise. Its many rules, regulations, taxes, debt, spending, and unnecessary wars reduce the output of goods and services that we regard as ‘prosperity.’ That’s why dynamic, productive capitalism and Big Government are largely incompatible. It takes a small government to produce big economic gains.

Curiously, government also tends to exaggerate the Primary Trend – though not intentionally. It manipulates interest rates down, for example, and makes the upswing of asset prices more powerful than ever (1980-2021). And/or it hampers needed market adjustments, thereby making the downswing worse (the Great Depression.)

The Knowledge Problem: A fundamental part of our analysis is that the world of money doesn’t work the way you think it does. The Fed cannot actually know what interest rates America needs, for example. Nor can it know what ‘full employment’ or ‘full capacity’ for the US economy is. We also think that Wall Street seriously and episodically misprices assets as investors get caught up in fads and the ‘madness of crowds.’

We further believe that the switch to a gold-free dollar in 1971 was a mistake. It made it much easier to diddle the value of the world’s reserve currency and thereby allowed and promoted large distortions throughout the global financial system. Today, for example, great swings in stock prices occur following comments by Fed officials, even though they are unlikely to affect the real value of the underlying companies.

In short, most of what you hear from economists, Wall Street or the government is likely to be BS. And generally, the more economists, Big Banks, or politicians are involved, the less productive the economy. For example, the Soviet Union had so much government control that its economy was extremely inefficient, causing its elite to abandon it entirely.

Get the Big Trend Right: The trick to successful wealth-building is to get on the right side of the major trend…and stay there. This has been the basis for each Trade of the Decade we’ve made since 2000. It’s worked each time. And in fact it’s working now, as we’re ‘long’ oil and gas and, essentially ‘short’ the US dollar, the ‘Net Zero’ crowd, and the whole idea of ‘The Energy Transition.’

For investors, every study shows that asset allocation (being in the right place at the right time) is more effective than specific investment selection. It could be stocks for one decade. Bonds the next. Or, cash, gold, and commodities. Getting the mix right has a much larger impact on your portfolio results than a single stock selection. That’s why, when we set up shop in 2021, our first report to readers was on what this mix should be. We’ve been reviewing and updating for our readers every month since.

What the Primary Trend says Now: The place to be for the last Primary Trend was in the US stock market. The Dow rose from under 1,000 in 1980 to over 36,000 in 2021. That Primary Trend came to an end as two tops were hit. First, bond prices topped out in July 2020 with the US benchmark 10-year note yielding 0.59% (bond prices vary inversely with yields.)

Then, in December 2021, when US stocks hit a high of 36,388, the ‘top was in,’ as they say on Wall Street. Note that while the Dow has subsequently gone up, it has still not surpassed its high – in real, inflation-adjusted terms. Nor has it gone up when priced in gold, which is how we prefer to measure our gains. Gold doesn’t lie.
If we are right about the new Primary Trend, the simplest thing for an investor to do now is simply take cover. We are in “maximum safety mode” – emphasizing cash and gold over stocks and bonds.

Most of our subscribers are over 55 years old. At that age, losing money is a bigger threat than failing to make more of it. A younger person may take a loss, learn from it, and then recover the money…and more. But over 55, it becomes more and more difficult. You just don’t have the time to recoup a major loss. So, our program is designed primarily to avoid the Big Loss while still participating, safely and prudently, in market gains. In short, we buy stocks when they are cheap. We sell them when they are expensive.

Using the Dow/Gold Ratio:

How do you know when stocks are too cheap or too expensive? We use a very simple model based on gold. Ultimately, gold has proven the safest, surest way to inventory wealth over the last 3,000 years. So, we look to the price of stocks – in gold terms – to tell when they are really cheap or expensive. And since we never know for sure, we allow for a generous ‘margin of error’ to keep us from taking the “big loss.”

Briefly, when you can buy the entire 30 Dow stocks for 5 ounces of gold, or less, it is time sell gold and buy stocks. When the price goes over 15 ounces of gold, it is time to go in the opposite direction; sell stocks and buy gold. Currently, with the Dow/gold ratio at about 17, our recommendation is to keep the bulk of your wealth in cash or gold, while holding only a few stocks that you believe are fairly priced. We’ll stick with that position until the ratio falls to 5 or below.

The last Primary Trend was set in motion when Paul Volcker quashed inflation and saved the post-1971 money system. Thereafter, the feds amplified and extended the trend by dropping interest rates too low and keeping them there – below zero, inflation-adjusted – for far too long.
Our intuition tells us that they will amplify the current Primary Trend too – towards lower asset prices and higher inflation and interest rates – by running large budget deficits, involving the US in unnecessary wars, undermining the US dollar with sanctions and seizures, and draining more and more capital out of real investment and squandering it on government boondoggles.

The point will come soon enough, however, when rising interest rates trigger a panic flight from the bond market, driving up the government’s cost of borrowed funds to impossible levels. That is when the ‘inflate or die’ trap snaps shut. Then, the government will be forced to choose: either ‘print’ more money or let the debt-drenched bubble economy die.

A Mountain of Debt: The effect of the government’s ultra-low interest rate policy prior to 2022 was to create a mountain of debt. Worldwide, that debt has reached beyond $300 trillion. US government debt alone is nearly $35 trillion, while total US debt – government, business and household – now approaches $100 trillion, or nearly 4 times GDP.

This is more debt than can be carried or managed in a high interest rate environment. Paul Volcker pushed the fed funds rate to 20% to stifle inflation in the 1970s. That is no longer possible. Even a 10% rate would fall upon the financial markets like a hammer on an egg.

But the government has only two choices. Inflate or Die. Either it continues to inflate (with low real rates and high deficits). Or, it radically cuts spending – triggering major bankruptcies, defaults and a depression…effectively killing the bubble economy that its ultra-low rates created.

What Next? We think we know which direction it will go. You see, great empires follow patterns too. They rise. They fall. Every one of them. In 1992, the US had the chance of a lifetime. The Soviet Union disbanded. Oligarchs took over and began selling raw materials, in bulk, at low prices. The Chinese, meanwhile, had already decided to take the ‘capitalist road.’ By the 1990s, they were lowering costs on finished products.

Its enemies out of the way…its consumer costs falling…the US could have cut it's military budget (a ‘peace dividend’) and used the money to shore up its domestic industries and infrastructure.

Instead, it invaded Iraq. And went to war in Afghanistan. And then, supported wars in the Ukraine and Gaza. Its military budget exploded to the upside. Its reputation slid to the downside. And its debt soared – adding $25 trillion, so far, in the 21st century.

We believe this failure will prove fatal to the empire. It will exaggerate the now-in-motion Primary Trend and send asset prices to shockingly low levels (in real terms.) This financial failure, combined with the social and political chaos it brings, risks creating a major debacle. With elections in both the UK and the US coming up, you might think things will change. Unlikely.

Instead, we advise you to buckle up. Get on the right side of the Primary Trend. Learn to look at market prices in real terms, not fake terms. And surround yourself with friends who will see the world for what it is...and figure out how to navigate it together. Stay tuned."

The Daily "Near You?"

Collinsville, Oklahoma, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Quantitative Brainwashing"

"Quantitative Brainwashing"
by Jeff Thomas

"We’re all familiar with the term, "quantitative easing." It’s described as meaning, "A monetary policy in which a central bank purchases government securities or other securities from the market in order to lower interest rates and increase the money supply." Well, that sounds reasonable… even beneficial. But, unfortunately, that’s not really the whole story.

When QE was implemented, the purchasing power was weak and both government and personal debt had become so great that further borrowing would not solve the problem; it would only postpone it and, in the end, exacerbate it. Effectively, QE is not a solution to an economic problem, it’s a bonus of epic proportions, given to banks by governments, at the expense of the taxpayer.

But, of course, we shouldn’t be surprised that governments have passed off a massive redistribution of wealth from the taxpayer to their pals in the banking sector with such clever terms. Governments of today have become extremely adept at creating euphemisms for their misdeeds in order to pull the wool over the eyes of the populace. At this point, we cannot turn on the daily news without being fed a full meal of carefully- worded mumbo jumbo, designed to further overwhelm whatever small voices of truth may be out there.

Let’s put this in perspective for a moment. For millennia, political leaders have been in the practice of altering, confusing and even obliterating the truth, when possible. And it’s probably safe to say that, for as long as there have been media, there have been political leaders doing their best to control them.

During times of war, political leaders have serially restricted the media from simply telling the truth. During the American civil war, President Lincoln shut down some 300 newspapers and arrested some 14,000 journalists who had the audacity to contradict his statements to the public. As extreme as that may sound, this practice has been more the rule in history than the exception.

In most countries, in most eras, some publications go against the official story line and may very well pay a price for doing so. But, other publications go along with the official story line to a greater or lesser degree and are often rewarded for doing so. It should come as no surprise, then, that media outlets often come to report the news in a less than accurate manner. Mark Twain is claimed to have said, "If you don’t read the newspaper, you’re uninformed. If you do read the newspaper, you’re misinformed." Quite so.

Still, only fifty years ago, much of the then "Free World" enjoyed a relatively objective Press. Even on television, reporters such as Walter Cronkite, Huntley and Brinkley, etc. presented the news in a bland manner. It wasn’t very exciting, but at least it was relatively balanced and, to this day, most people who were around then still have no idea as to whether reporters like Walter Cronkite were liberal or conservative. Although he was a committed Democrat, he never allowed that to significantly color his reporting.

But today, we have a very different corporate structure as regards the media. The same six corporations hold the controlling interest of over 80% of the media. And those same corporations also own a controlling interest in the military industrial complex, Wall Street, the major banks, Big Pharma, etc. What we’re witnessing today is media having been transformed into something more akin to a three-ring circus than journalism of old. This is no accident. The present travesty that is the 21st century media, is journalism in name only.

So, why should this be so? Well, as it happens, people tend not to like governments dominating their lives – simple as that. And yet, the primary objective of any government is to increase its size and power as rapidly as the populace will tolerate it. The only reason that they rarely do this quickly, is that they can’t get away with it. Like boiling a frog, it takes time to lull the populace into submission, bit by bit.

Once having had enough time to do so, there comes a point at which the government becomes woefully top-heavy, as well as unworkably autocratic. At such times, all that’s necessary to make people rebel is an economic crisis. Such is the case in much of the world today – the EU, the US, Canada, etc.. Even in their arrogance, the powers that be have to be aware that they’re right at the tipping point. An economic crisis would almost certainly push the situation over the edge.

When truth threatens to undermine machinations for self-aggrandizement, individuals tend to obfuscate in order to delay the inevitable fallout. Governments are no different. So it was that, in 1999, the largest banks entered into a massive lending scam that would most certainly collapse within a decade. However, before putting the scam in place, they arranged for a "bailout" by the government, which would effectively pass the bill to the taxpayer, while the banks themselves simply increased their own wealth massively.

Of course, QE, as massive as it was, was a mere Band-Aid solution. All those involved (big business and the government) understood that it would hang like a sword of Damocles over the economy until it inevitably came crashing down – a fate far worse than if QE had never been implemented.

And so, for those entities to have invested into the domination of the media was, in fact, essential. Had they not done so, it’s entirely likely that, with a free press, the man on the street would, by now, have figured out that he’d been hoodwinked. Thus do we see the journalistic equivalent of Quantitative Brainwashing, in which the inevitable realization is delayed for as long as possible. And, in order to make sure that the public do not figure out what’s been done to them, the news reporting becomes Orwellian in its endless repetition of a false narrative.

It is, however, true that, "You can’t fool all of the people all of the time." Eventually, the Band-Aid peels back to reveal an infection that’s far beyond what had been generally perceived. It then falls away in layers, as increasing numbers of people become aware that they’ve been scammed – that the media is entirely corrupt and that the media’s owners – big business - have, with the enthusiastic compliance of the government, robbed them on a wholesale basis. Historically, that’s when the jig is up. What happens then is a matter of historic record."

Dan, I Allegedly, "They Keep Losing Money"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 5/27/24
"They Keep Losing Money"
"The mortgage industry is losing money handover fist. Plus, there are a lot of people 
still in forbearance, and commercial real estate is a week away from the crash starting."
Comments here:

"Our Alaric Moment"

"Our Alaric Moment"
by The ZMan

"If you were living in the Western Roman Empire in the fourth century you probably knew that things were not going well. This assumes that you were prosperous enough to have time to think about these things. You could see that the infrastructure was failing and that the empire was struggling to maintain order. On the other hand, the decline had been happening for a long time so things may have seemed normal. Without some way to compare the present to the past, you only have instinct.

Today we have mountains of facts and figures to tell us how things are doing in the Global American Empire. There was a time not so long ago when these facts and figures made up the bulk of news coverage. Economists became court wizards, explaining the latest unemployment figures or trade numbers. They were also called upon to bless whatever polices were being debated in Congress. In the Obama years, economic data was the way we measured the glories of the empire.

That has all changed now. One reason is no one in their right mind takes anything the government says at face value. People had grown used to the way the media biased the numbers depending upon who was in office, but the mortgage crisis cratered the public’s confidence in the numbers themselves. If all of the court wizards explaining the numbers could not see the mortgage fiasco coming, then why should anyone believe them about unemployment or inflation?

Then you have the general lying that has become a feature of government. The lying about Covid not only disgraced the medical profession, but it finished off whatever trust people had in the official numbers. If the government lies about how many people are dying from Covid just to move more product for the drug makers, the government will lie about how many people are working or the inflation numbers. No one trusts the numbers because no one trusts the people issuing the numbers.

The point here is we cannot trust the numbers if the numbers have no relationship to anything we have experienced. When the end of the world has the same numbers as what most consider to be a golden era for the empire, those numbers cease to have any meaning to us. Throw in the fact that most people do not feel like they are richer than their ancestors and those inflated stock figures carry even less weight. We are left to rely on our instincts to judge things.

Of course, our sense of things, that gut feeling, is the result of a many small things that we experience every day. Three-quarters of Americans think the country is going in the wrong direction because they go to the grocery store every week. They see that despite the crowing about inflation coming down lies, food remains expensive. They see every day that gives people a sense of things.

Think about something simple like a pint of premium ice cream. A few years ago, a pint was sixteen ounces. “A pint is a pint the world around” was true from peak of the British empire until just a few years ago. Now a pint is fourteen ounces. The price for the new pint is not the same as the old pint. The price is more than the old pint. A few years ago, the old pint of ice cream was five dollars. That is about 31¢ per ounce. Today the new pint is over seven dollars or 51¢ per ounce.

That is a seventy percent change in the price. This is one example and probably not a representative one, given that butterfat prices drive dairy prices. Even so, this is something people see all over the marketplace. Shrinkflation is a word because it is a thing that exists. People notice that the containers are getting smaller, or they are getting less full in the case of things like snacks. Meanwhile, prices go up. This subtly tells people that something is going wrong.

This is probably why we are no longer getting a parade of court wizards analyzing the latest economic numbers. According to the numbers, Joe Biden should be dozing into reelection with an insurmountable lead, as his court wizards flood the airwaves with the good news about the economy. Instead, no one talks about the numbers and Biden is as popular as rectal cancer. It is possible he could lose the election to a man sitting in prison or be deposed by the secret police.

This brings us back to where we started. There were those in the Roman Empire who sensed the true state of affairs. No doubt some of them lived and died expecting things to fall apart, only to stagger on long past their time. Then there were others who internalized this reality and just accepted that no matter how grim things might appear, the empire was a permanent feature of life. The people probably just tried to make the best of things, even as they noticed the decline.

All of that changed on August 24, 410 AD when Alaric led the Visigoths into the eternal city, sacking Rome and setting off the collapse of the Western empire. The empire staggered on for a bit longer, but it was over at that point. All of those bad signs people had sensed probably seemed obvious in retrospect. Even so, the sack of Rome by the Visigoths was a shock to the world. The signs seemed obvious, but people still thought that the imperial order was permanent.

This is most likely the fate of the American empire. There are lots of signs that things are going poorly for the empire. Getting whipped by a collection of bronze age goatherds in the graveyard of empires should have been a wakeup call, but the empire is now picking fights with Russia and China. Meanwhile things deteriorate domestically, both economically and culturally. Yet, we stagger on, but somewhere out there is an Alaric moment just waiting to happen."

"How It Really Is"

 

"‘I Cry Quietly’: A Soldier Describes the Toll of Russia’s War"

Full screen recommended.
"‘I Cry Quietly’: 
A Soldier Describes the Toll of Russia’s War"
"For Valentyn, a Ukrainian soldier in the Donetsk region, the war’s death toll is more than a statistic. He is tasked with moving wounded troops - and dead bodies - away from the front lines, often under Russian fire."

"Under Russian Fire, 
A Ukrainian Soldier Evacuates the Wounded"
By Yousur Al-Hlou and Masha Froliak

Near Kremmina, Ukraine - "The sound of artillery launching and landing along the front line punctures the stillness of the forest just a few miles away, where combat medics are waiting to receive the wounded. On the horizon, a military vehicle moves along a dusty road and screeches to a halt when it reaches the trees. A soldier named Valentyn parks it there for natural camouflage from Russian drones scouting for Ukrainian military positions.

A group of soldiers, visibly shaken, quickly unloads three bodies that have just been recovered from the front line, placing each one into a plastic body bag and zipping it closed. Their position was shelled and then attacked by a drone, they say. “They’re shooting at you from all sides. You turn, you run, they hit you, and it’s impossible to get away,” said Maksym, who survived the attack. “This is a big tragedy for us.” “One more body is left behind with the Russian soldiers,” he added.

While much of the world’s attention was fixated on the bloody urban battle taking place in Bakhmut, Russia’s campaign in eastern Ukraine is also raging in forests and fields about 50 miles north of the city, near Kreminna. Here, soldiers take positions in trenches surrounded by tall, slim trees, crouching to avoid the direct line of sight of their Russian enemies. “People say it’s harsh in Bakhmut,” said Valentyn, who joined the army seven months ago. “But it’s harsh here, too.”

For the past month, Valentyn has been stationed at this evacuation point, traveling back and forth to the front line almost daily to rescue wounded soldiers and recover the dead. His job requires him to drive directly toward Russian forces, and he has come under fire at times. “There is nothing good about it,” Valentyn said. “What is this war for?”

Ukrainian and Russian military officials have been reluctant to release data on casualties within their ranks, though the U.S. government and military experts estimate that both sides have suffered significant losses in the tens or hundreds of thousands.

For Valentyn, the work of responding to the casualties has been both grim and relentless. “There is blood everywhere,” he said, while cleaning it from his vehicle. “It has a smell. Especially fresh blood.” Bright red liquid trickled through his fingers as he rinsed out a bloodied cloth. He drained the cloth and used it again to wipe off the back seat. “It’s difficult to see young boys die,” Valentyn said. “Sometimes I cry quietly.”

In calmer moments when there is no one to evacuate, Valentyn travels deep into the forest to transport soldiers to and from the contact line, where Ukrainian and Russian soldiers are sometimes positioned just hundreds of meters apart. He said at least one group of soldiers couldn’t make it to their position because Russian troops had already taken it over.

“Every day is scary here,” said Viktor, a soldier who returned with Valentyn. “I feel constant anxiety, for our country and our lives.” His stoic face reflected the fear and horror known only to those who had witnessed the fight in the forest. “Those who haven’t been there will never understand.”

Don't you dare look away! You, and me and all of us have paid at least $150 billion for this nightmare! The blood of 600,000 dead Ukrainian soldiers he's cleaning up is on all our hands, too...

Dwight D. Eisenhower, "The Chance for Peace Speech"

"The Chance for Peace Speech"
by Dwight D. Eisenhower

Address to the American Society of Newspaper Editors, 
delivered 16 April 1953, Statler Hotel, Washington, D.C.
Full speech here:

"I hate war as only a soldier who has lived it can, 
only as one who has seen its brutality, its futility, its stupidity."
- Dwight D. Eisenhower

"On Memorial Day, Dulce et Decorum Est"

"On Memorial Day"
by Matt Taibbi

"As a boy I read Wilfred Owen’s famous poem about World War I, describing the suffering of young men sent by industrial powers to die in clouds of poison gas. It’s a warning: if you saw what Owen did, and your nights were tormented by visions of blood and death, “You would not tell with such high zest, to children ardent for some desperate glory, The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori.”

Owen was killed in November 1918, a week before the Armistice. In his poems you read a soldier’s hope that boys like me would read them before they became old enough to want to prove themselves in combat. God didn’t design us to be killers, he said, noting we aren’t born with claws or talons, and a boy’s teeth are more suited for “laughing round an apple.” I know that’s true of my children, who’ll be taught to remember soldiers like Owen today."
o
"Dulce et Decorum Est"
by Wilfred Owen

"Bent double, like old beggars under sacks,
Knock-kneed, coughing like hags, we cursed through sludge,
Till on the haunting flares we turned our backs,
And towards our distant rest began to trudge.
Men marched asleep. Many had lost their boots,
But limped on, blood-shod. All went lame; all blind;
Drunk with fatigue; deaf even to the hoots
Of gas-shells dropping softly behind.

Gas! GAS! Quick, boys! - An ecstasy of fumbling
Fitting the clumsy helmets just in time,
But someone still was yelling out and stumbling
And flound’ring like a man in fire or lime.
Dim through the misty panes and thick green light,
As under a green sea, I saw him drowning.
In all my dreams before my helpless sight,
He plunges at me, guttering, choking, drowning.

If in some smothering dreams, you too could pace
Behind the wagon that we flung him in,
And watch the white eyes writhing in his face,
His hanging face, like a devil’s sick of sin;
If you could hear, at every jolt, the blood
Come gargling from the froth-corrupted lungs,
Obscene as cancer, bitter as the cud
Of vile, incurable sores on innocent tongues,-
My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory,
The old Lie: 
"Dulce et decorum est, Pro patria mori."

Latin phrase is from the Roman poet Horace: 
“It is sweet and fitting to die for one’s country.”

Free Download: Erich Maria Remarque, “All Quiet on the Western Front”,

Ask her if it was worth it...
o
“You still think it's beautiful to die for your country. The first bombardment
taught us better. When it comes to dying for country, it's better not to die at all.”

“We have lost all feeling for one another. We can hardly control ourselves when our glance lights on the form of some other man. We are insensible, dead men, who through some trick, some dreadful magic, are still able to run and to kill.”
- "Paul Baumer", "All Quiet on the Western Front" (1930)

Freely download “All Quiet on the Western Front”, by Erich Maria Remarque, here:
http://explainallquietonthewesternfront.weebly.com/
o

Sunday, May 26, 2024

Memorial Day 2024

 

Canadian Prepper, "Breaking! Another Russian Nuclear Radar Hit; Emergency Meetings Underway; WW3 Warning From Serbia"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 5/26/24
"Breaking! Another Russian Nuclear Radar Hit;
 Emergency Meetings Underway; WW3 Warning From Serbia"
Comments here:

Jeremiah Babe, "R.I.P. Dollar Stores; Car Max Is Maxxed Out; Hollywood Has Fallen"

Full screen recommended.
Jeremiah Babe, 5/26/24
"R.I.P. Dollar Stores; Car Max Is Maxxed Out; 
Hollywood Has Fallen"
Comments here:

Dan, I Allegedly, "A Great Day for Bad News"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 5/26/24
"A Great Day for Bad News"
"It’s a beautiful holiday weekend. But not all the 
news is good. It’s a very expensive Memorial Day."
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: 2002, "Cycle of Time"; "Challenge From Heaven"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "Cycle of Time"
o
Full screen recommended.
2002, "Challenge From Heaven"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"In the lower left corner, surrounded by blue spiral arms, is spiral galaxy M81. In the upper right corner, marked by red gas and dust clouds, is irregular galaxy M82. This stunning vista shows these two mammoth galaxies locked in gravitational combat, as they have been for the past billion years. The gravity from each galaxy dramatically affects the other during each hundred million-year pass.
Last go-round, M82's gravity likely raised density waves rippling around M81, resulting in the richness of M81's spiral arms. But M81 left M82 with violent star forming regions and colliding gas clouds so energetic the galaxy glows in X-rays. This big battle is seen from Earth through the faint glow of an Integrated Flux Nebula, a little studied complex of diffuse gas and dust clouds in our Milky Way Galaxy. In a few billion years only one galaxy will remain."
o
"When observing the stars, you should see them in another perspective. Take into account what they really are: the mothers of the atoms from which we are constituted, the atoms that constitute the mortal and thinking species that admire the sun as a god, a father or a nuclear power station. The particles that were composed at the beginning of the Universe, the atoms that were forged in the stars, the molecules that were constituted on Earth or in another place… all that is also inside us."
- Michel Cassé, French astro-physicist, "Desafio do Século XXI"