Wednesday, April 3, 2024

"Complexity Theory: the Avalanche and the Snowflake"

"Complexity Theory: the Avalanche and the Snowflake"
by James Rickards

"One of my favorites is what I call ‘the avalanche and the snowflake’. It’s a metaphor for the way the science actually works, but I should be clear: it’s not just a metaphor. The science, the mathematics and the dynamics are actually the same as those that exist in financial markets.

Imagine you’re on a mountainside. You can see a snowpack building up on the ridgeline while it continues snowing. You can tell just by looking at the scene that there’s danger of an avalanche. It’s windswept… it’s unstable… and if you’re an expert, you know it’s going to collapse and kill skiers and wipe out the village below. You see a snowflake fall from the sky onto the snowpack. It disturbs a few other snowflakes that lie there. Then, the snow starts to spread… then it starts to slide… then it gains momentum until, finally, it comes loose and the whole mountain comes down and buries the village.

Question: What do you blame? Do you blame the snowflake, or do you blame the unstable pack of snow? I say the snowflake’s irrelevant. If it wasn’t the one snowflake that caused the avalanche, it could have been the one before, or the one after, or the one tomorrow. The instability of the system as a whole was the problem. So when I think about the risks in the financial system, I don’t focus on the ‘snowflake’ that will cause problems. The trigger doesn’t matter.

A snowflake that falls harmlessly – the vast majority of all snowflakes - technically fails to start a chain reaction. Once a chain reaction begins, it expands exponentially, can ‘go critical’ (as in an atomic bomb) and release enough energy to destroy a city. However, most neutrons do not start nuclear chain reactions, just as most snowflakes do not start avalanches.

In the end, it’s not about the snowflakes or neutrons. It’s about the initial critical state conditions that allow the possibiity of a chain reaction or an avalanche. These can be hypothesized and observed at large scale, but the exact moment the chain reaction begins cannot be observed. That’s because it happens on a minute scale relative to the system. This is why some people refer to these snowflakes as ‘black swans’, because they are unexpected and come by surprise. But they’re actually not a surprise if you understand the system’s dynamics and can estimate the system scale.

It’s a metaphor, but really the mathematics behind it are the same. Financial markets today are huge, unstable mountains of snow waiting to collapse. You see it in the gross notional value of derivatives. There is $700 trillion worth of swaps. ($2.5 Quadrillion by other reputable estimates. - CP) These are derivatives off balance sheet, hidden liabilities in the banking system of the world. These numbers are not made up. Just go to the IS annual report and it’s right there in the footnote.

Well, how do you put $700 trillion into perspective? It’s ten times global GDP. Take all the goods and services in the entire world for an entire year. That’s about $70 trillion when you add it all up. Well, take ten times that, and that’s how big the snow pile is. And that’s the avalanche that’s waiting to come down."

Scott Ritter, "Israel's Irremediable Defeat On War With Iran And Hezbollah"

Full screen recommended.
Scott Ritter, 4/3/24
"Israel's Irremediable Defeat 
On War With Iran And Hezbollah"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Danny Haiphong, 4/3/24
"Scott Ritter: Israel Crossed Iran's 
Red Line and Total War is Coming"
"Former Marine Corps Intelligence Officer and UN Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter reacts to Israel's latest escalation with Iran that left several of its top military brass slain in Syria. What happens next will shock you."
Comments here:

Judge Napolitano, "Col. Douglas Macgregor: Israel Is Desperate"

Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 4/3/24
"Col. Douglas Macgregor: Israel Is Desperate"
Comments here:

"How It Really Is"

Oh no we haven't, not even close. 
This is just beginning, and you ain't seen nuthin' yet, but you will...

Dan, I Allegedly, You Can’t Pay By Check Anymore"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 4/3/24
"You Can’t Pay By Check Anymore"
"People are stealing mail all around the country. It’s a huge problem. Now the bad guys are taking these checks and stealing not only your banking information, but they are washing the checks and changing the payee."
Comments here:

Bill Bonner, "Unsustainable At Any Price

"Unsustainable At Any Price
If they measured inflation as they did during the Reagan years, 
it would show real GDP not growing at all, but falling like a badly made cake.
by Bill Bonner

Five years from now, the interest on the national debt will take up 
50 cents on every dollar of revenues. Ten years from now it will be 100 cents."
- RFK, Jr.

Dublin, Ireland - "Democrats say we are protecting democracy in the Levant. Republicans say we are protecting democracy in Eurasia. Both say we are protecting democracy by spending trillions of dollars we don’t have. Hillary Clinton says a vote for Biden is a vote to ‘protect democracy;’ she claims Donald Trump is a ‘threat to democracy.’ RFK, Jr. says Biden is an even bigger threat to democracy than Trump. What to make of it? 

Yesterday, we looked at Donald Trump’s new media company. As we saw, the numbers make no sense. The company has few sales and many losses. It merits a market value of about... zero. And yet, investors see in it a company worth $10 billion. And Donald Trump is suing his partners to get more of it for himself.

The nation’s GDP growth rate, meanwhile, is entirely dependent on the inflation computation... which is as inconstant as a doughy moon. The feds knead it, and roll it, and bake it in the oven... until they get the flavor and consistency they want. If they measured inflation as they did during the Reagan years, however, it would show real GDP not growing at all... but falling like a badly made cake.

A badly made cake: The stock market, too, bobs up and down on the waves like a kitten in a coffee can. But measured in gold, stocks are still down 13.6% from their 2021 highs. Is there anything real…indisputable…worth worrying about? Alas, yes: debt. It’s not going away. It’s growing. And it’s headed for disaster. Bloomberg: "The Congressional Budget Office warned in its latest projections that US federal government debt is on a path from 97% of GDP last year to 116% by 2034 — higher even than in World War II. The actual outlook is likely worse. From tax revenue to defense spending and interest rates, the CBO forecasts released earlier this year are underpinned by rosy assumptions. Plug in the market’s current view on interest rates, and the debt-to-GDP ratio rises to 123% in 2034. Then assume — as most in Washington do — that ex-President Donald Trump’s tax cuts mainly stay in place, and the burden gets even higher."

There are a lot of known unknowns in the debt figures, but they almost all lead to the same place. Bloomberg economists ran a million simulations to see what might happen. In 88% of them, the “debt to GDP ratio” proved to be an “unsustainable path.”

What happens when the unsustainable path comes to an end? Fortune: "America will be left with ‘severe, irreversible scars’ if national debt goes unchecked. Now, a blockbuster report warns the bill is higher than believed, hitting $141tn by 2054: "A  March report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)... estimates that by 2054 public debt will represent 166% of GDP, reaching $141.1 trillion."

Currently the nation's $34 trillion debt is approximately 99% of GDP and, according to the CBO, will steadily increase over the next 30 years. In the near term, the CBO expects debt as a percentage of GDP to exceed the record peak of the Second World War by 2029. This mounting debt, the CBO writes, "would slow economic growth, push up interest payments to foreign holders of U.S. debt, and pose significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook; it could also cause lawmakers to feel more constrained in their policy choices."

Yes, dear reader, America’s debt is something we can depend on. But as it gets bigger and bigger (relative to the economy that supports it) it becomes ‘unsustainable.’ Then, something else must happen. What? The real question is whether the change occurs intentionally or unintentionally.

The ‘intentional’ solution is obvious... but unattainable. It would require a political clarity and will that does not exist. Spending would have to be cut by more than one trillion dollars per year. But since the deciders are also the spenders... and since their cronies and supporters are the ones who get the money... there is very little likelihood of a voluntary solution.

It’s the ‘unintentional’ resolution that will do the real damage. And yesterday, we had a hint of how it might come about. Stay tuned."

Canadian Prepper, "Alert! Iran Moves Missiles; 48 Hour Warning; Bird Flu Triggers"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 4/3/24
"Alert! Iran Moves Missiles; 48 Hour Warning; 
Bird Flu Triggers"
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "AM/PM 4/3/24"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 4/3/24
"It's Happening Worldwide: Economic Disaster On A Massive Scale,
 People Are Being Destroyed"
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o
Gregory Mannarino, PM 4/3/24
"A Very Disturbing Paradox: Without Much 
More Easy Money This Entire Thing Ends!"
Comments here:

Dan, I Allegedly, "No One Can Afford This"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 4/2/24
"No One Can Afford This"
"Everything is going up in price. Plus, we are hearing that pensions are being cut in the UK . we also hear that Tesla sales have dropped dramatically in the fourth quarter of 2023 and high-end retailers are not selling their goods."
Comments here:

"Brighteon Broadcast News: Why Israel Is America’s Most Dangerous Enemy"

Brighteon Broadcast News:
Why Israel Is America’s Most Dangerous Enemy"
The world must stop Israel or we all die in a nuclear holocaust.
by Mike Adams

"Israel Is Evil personified. Israel Is Evil embodied."
- Scott Ritter

"Israel has gone off the rails and is now being described by former US Congressman Dennis Kucinich as a "rogue government" that follows no laws, no treaties and no humanitarian rules whatsoever. With Israel now targeting and murdering international food aid workers (on purpose), and targeting, bombing and destroying an Iranian consulate building in Syria, Israel is announcing to the world that it will never stop committing violence, war and genocide until the world finds a way to stop Israel first.

That's the critical message today: The world must stop Israel. If we don't, we all die in a nuclear holocaust as regional war transforms into world war, and world war unleashes nuclear weapons that decimate life on planet Earth. Israel is now the most dangerous nation on the planet, and it is in the hands of a murderous psychopath (Netanyahu) who gladly risks the deaths of billions of people in order to try to save himself."
Full details in today's Brighteon Broadcast News here:

- Israel's attack on Damascus, #gold prices, and decentralization of speech. (0:03)
- Government control and the phase-out of gas-powered vehicles. (4:59)
- Combustion engine vehicles, EVs, and government regulations. (10:42)
- #Immigration and border security in the US. (15:05)
- Trump's wealth and potential legal challenges. (21:08)
- Insect protein in your food. (29.06)
- Israeli missile strike on Iranian embassy in Syria, killing high-level officials. (33:08)
- US-Israel relations and potential conflict with #Iran. (38:18)
- Free speech, decentralization, and #podcasting with Adam Curry. (54:01)
- Payment friction, solutions, and privacy in #crypto. (1:27:40)
- Alternative economies and media platforms. (1:30:24)
- #NPC theory and its implications. (2:08:07)
- Faith, spirituality, and religion. (2:19:12)

Adventures With Danno, "Outrageous Price Increases At Walmart!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 4/3/24
"Outrageous Price Increases At Walmart!"
"In today's vlog, we are at Walmart and are noticing some outrageous price increases on different grocery items. It's getting rough out here as many families struggle to put food on the table."
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Tuesday, April 2, 2024

Musical Interlude: Deuter, “Loving Touch”

Full screen recommended.
Deuter, “Loving Touch”

"A Look to the Heavens"

“NGC 253 is not only one of the brightest spiral galaxies visible, it is also one of the dustiest. Discovered in 1783 by Caroline Herschel in the constellation of Sculptor, NGC 253 lies only about ten million light-years distant.
NGC 253 is the largest member of the Sculptor Group of Galaxies, the nearest group to our own Local Group of Galaxies. The dense dark dust accompanies a high star formation rate, giving NGC 253 the designation of starburst galaxy. Visible in the above photograph is the active central nucleus, also known to be a bright source of X-rays and gamma rays.”

"We're All Mad Here..."

"But I don't want to go among mad people," Alice remarked.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the cat. 
"We're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the cat, "Or you wouldn't have come here."
- Lewis Carroll,
"Alice's Adventures in Wonderland"

Oh, I know, I know, some days...
Anymore, every day.
"We work in the dark. We do what we can to battle the evil that would otherwise destroy us. But if a man's character is his fate, this fight is not a choice but a calling. Yet sometimes the weight of this burden causes us to falter, breaching the frazzled fortress of our mind, allowing the monsters without to turn within. We are left alone staring into the abyss; into the laughing face of madness." - "Fox Mulder", "The X-Files"

"Our Perspective..."

¨"There are some oddities in the perspective with which we see the world. The fact that we live at the bottom of a deep gravity well, on the surface of a gas covered planet going around a nuclear fireball 90 million miles away and think this to be normal is obviously some indication of how skewed our perspective tends to be."
- Douglas Adams

Chet Raymo, “Caught In The Middle”

“Caught In The Middle”
by Chet Raymo

"It doesn't take a genius to recognize that human males have a propensity for intergroup violence, and that the killing is often accompanied by rape. One need only read the newspapers. The only question is to what extent these tendencies are innate or culturally inculcated. Nature or nurture? Or both? A book, "Sex and War: How Biology Explains Warfare and Terrorism and Offers a Path to a Safer World," by population biologist Malcolm Potts and science writer Thomas Hayden, dishes up a bit of both. The violence is in our (male) genes, they maintain, but it is susceptible to cultural control.

What the authors calls "behavioral propensity to engage in male coalitional violence" evolved as far back as the common ancestor of humans and chimps, they claim, although our other close relations, bonobos and gorillas, seem to have found more peaceful ways of living. Genes predispose, say Potts and Hayden, but cultural forces can alleviate the worst of male nastiness. By empowering women to be leaders in cultural, social and political spheres, the violent propensities of men can be restrained. Further, empowerment will give women control of their reproductive destinies, and will therefore result in fewer offspring. Less population pressure will reduce other factors fueling violence and conflict, the authors claim.

Anthropologist Hillard Kaplan reviews the book in the October 9, 2009, issue of "Science." He agrees that the available evidence suggests that male intergroup violence has a long evolutionary history. He believes this tendency was exacerbated into large scale warfare with the development of agriculture and the associated larger population groups and competition for fertile land. Kaplan believes that male group violence is stoked by poor economic prospect for young males. To the empowerment of women he would add education and jobs as a way to reduce antisocial behavior.

There is nothing particularly new or revolutionary about any of this. Progress? Yes, I suppose so, but we clearly have a long way to go before women exercise equal power in society, or before young men in the developing world, especially, have an economic stake in social stability. Meanwhile, as the painting above by Jacques-Louis David, "The Sabine Women," suggests, women and children will continue to be caught in the middle.”

"Ex Obscurum"

Full screen recommended.
"Ex Obscurum, Adagio for Strings, Op. 11"
"From emotional turmoil, hatred, and addiction the miracle of recovery begins in this Spadecaller Video entitled "Ex Obscurum" (From Darkness). Featuring original poetry narrated by the author and visual artist, Matthew Schwartz. Composer Samuel Barber's powerful musical score, adopted for the movie "Platoon", (Adagio for Strings) sets the background for this spiritual exodus "From Darkness."

The Poet: Robert Service, "Prelude"

"Prelude"

"In youth I gnawed life's bitter rind
And shared the rugged lot
Of fellows rude and unrefined,
Frustrated and forgot;
And now alas! it is too late
My sorry ways to mend,
So sadly I accept my fate,
A Roughneck to the end.

Profanity is in my voice
And slag is in my rhyme,
For I have mucked with men who curse
And grovel in the grime;
My fingers were not formed, I fear,
To frame a pretty pen,
So please forgive me if I veer
From Virtue now and then.

For I would be the living voice,
Though raucous is its tone,
Of men who rarely may rejoice,
Yet barely ever moan:
The rovers of the raw-ribbed lands,
The lads of lowly worth,
The scallywags with scaley hands
Who weld the ends of earth."

- Robert Service

Gerald Celente, "Trends Journal", 4/2/24

Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, "Trends Journal", 4/2/24
"For Covid War To World War: What's Next, What To Do?"
"'The Trends Journal' is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present facts and truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for what’s next in these increasingly turbulent times."
Comments here:

The Daily "Near You?"

Arvada, Colorado, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Col. Douglas MacGregor: 'Israel Wants USA To Attack Iran, Dragging Us Into War'"

Full screen recommended.
Redacted, 4/2/24
"Col. Douglas MacGregor: 
'Israel Wants USA To Attack Iran, Dragging Us Into War'"
"Israel attacked an Iranian consulate in Syria and this could mean war for us all! This could drag us all into this war because Iran is vowing to respond big time and Israel will drag the U.S. into its defense. It is absolutely taboo to attack embassies folks! Lets remind ourselves why! Colonel Douglas MacGregor tells Redacted News that there's one reason Israel attacked Iran, to drag the U.S. into war."
Comments here:

"They Can't Hide The Economic Disaster They Created, The Crisis Is About To Get Painful"

Jeremiah Babe, 4/2/24
"They Can't Hide The Economic Disaster They Created, 
The Crisis Is About To Get Painful"
Comments here:

Dan, I Allegedly, "How Bad Will It Get In 2024?"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly 4/2/24
"How Bad Will It Get In 2024?"
"Here we are six weeks into the new year, and there have been massive amounts of layoffs in every single sector. Doesn’t matter what industry you’re in you’re going to see layoffs. Plus people are cutting cost now more than ever. Trouble is coming."
Comments here:

"How It Really Is"

"Today, our national debt has risen to $34,620,364,619,433.  It is the largest 
single debt in the entire history of our planet, and it will never be paid off."
US National Debt Clock
o
Jethro Tull, "Locomotive Breath"

"This Is How Most People Will Die When There Is A Large Scale Nuclear War Between The U.S. And Russia"

"This Is How Most People Will Die When There Is 
A Large Scale Nuclear War Between The U.S. And Russia"
By Michael Snyder

"We have never been closer to nuclear war than we are right now. If the conflict in Ukraine sparks a large scale nuclear war between the United States and Russia, billions of people could die. This is why so many of us desperately want leaders from both sides to sit down at the negotiating table and try to work out their differences peacefully. Perhaps a peaceful solution is not possible, but for the good of humanity they should at least make an attempt. Because as things stand right now, all it is going to take is one mistake for the world to be plunged into an unthinkable nuclear cataclysm.

According to author Annie Jacobsen, the U.S. has a network of satellites that is constantly watching for an ICBM launch from one of our enemies…“The US Defense Department has an early warning system. And the system in space is called SBIRS, a constellation of satellites that is keeping an eye on all of America’s enemies.

So the moment an ICBM launches, they see the hot rocket exhaust on the ICBM a fraction of a second after it launches. And so there begins this horrifying policy called launch on warning, and that’s the US counterattack. The reason that the United States is so ferociously watching for a nuclear launch somewhere around the globe is so that the nuclear command and control system in the US can move into action to immediately make a counterstrike. That policy, launch on warning, is exactly like it says, it means the United States will not wait to absorb a nuclear attack. It will launch nuclear weapons in response before the bomb actually hits.”

In the event of a surprise first strike, there would only be a handful of minutes to get the president out of bed and decide what to do. Needless to say, the president would not want to launch a counterstrike if it is a false alarm. Because once the missiles are in the air, there is no calling them back.

When a nuclear warhead explodes, a fireball is created that is unimaginably hot. The following comes from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists…"Microseconds into the explosion of a nuclear weapon, energy released in the form of X-rays heats the surrounding environment, forming a fireball of superheated air. Inside the fireball, the temperature and pressure are so extreme that all matter is rendered into a hot plasma of bare nuclei and subatomic particles, as is the case in the Sun’s multi-million-degree core.

The fireball following the airburst explosion of a 300-kiloton nuclear weapon - like the W87 thermonuclear warhead deployed on the Minuteman III missiles currently in service in the US nuclear arsenal - can grow to more than 600 meters (2,000 feet) in diameter and stays blindingly luminous for several seconds, before its surface cools.

The light radiated by the fireball’s heat - accounting for more than one-third of the thermonuclear weapon’s explosive energy - will be so intense that it ignites fires and causes severe burns at great distances. The thermal flash from a 300-kiloton nuclear weapon could cause first-degree burns as far as 13 kilometers (8 miles) from ground zero."

If you are at ground zero, you will have zero chance of surviving. According to a study that was conducted several years ago, approximately 34 million people would die during the first few hours of a large scale nuclear war between the United States and Russia. But that would be just the first wave of death.

In the aftermath of a nuclear exchange, radioactive fallout would spread over much of the continental United States…"Using archived weather data over 48-hour periods across a number of dates in 2021 to simulate the expected radioactive plume, the scientists found that the West Coast states were the lowest risk due to a prevailing easterly wind.

However, depending on the exact wind direction, the worst fallout could fall over any part of the U.S. and Canada east of Idaho. Based on weather patterns on December 2, 2021, Chicago, Illinois and D.C., among other population centers, would be in the direct path of a fatal dose of radiation.

In a worst-case scenario, almost all of Montana and North Dakota, as well as parts of Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming, South Dakota and Kansas would receive a dose more than 10 times what is considered lethal, resulting in deaths in a matter of days. Most of the Midwest would receive a lethal dose, while elsewhere would see deaths occur in weeks." Radioactive fallout would kill far more people than the initial explosions would. But the good news is that radiation levels would dissipate fairly rapidly.

So if you are far enough away from a ground zero and you are able to survive the initial tsunami of radioactive fallout, it will eventually be safe to go outside again. But at that point there will be no more supply chains, people will be fighting for whatever dwindling resources are left, and “famine alone could be more than 10 times as deadly as the hundreds of bomb blasts involved in the war itself”

As horrific as those statistics are, the tens to hundreds of millions of people dead and injured within the first few days of a nuclear conflict would only be the beginnings of a catastrophe that eventually will encompass the whole world. Global climatic changes, widespread radioactive contamination, and societal collapse virtually everywhere could be the reality that survivors of a nuclear war would contend with for many decades.

Two years after any nuclear war - small or large - famine alone could be more than 10 times as deadly as the hundreds of bomb blasts involved in the war itself. Ultimately, nuclear winter will kill more people than anything else.

For those of us that live in the northern hemisphere, it will be exceedingly difficult to grow much of anything once temperatures drop far below normal…"This makes Earth freezing cold even during the summer, with farmland in Kansas cooling by about 20 degrees centigrade (about 40 degrees Fahrenheit), and other regions cooling almost twice as much. A recent scientific paper estimates that over 5 billion people could starve to death, including around 99% of those in the US, Europe, Russia, and China – because most black carbon smoke stays in the Northern hemisphere where it’s produced, and because temperature drops harm agriculture more at high latitudes."

Can you imagine what our world would look like if such a war actually happened?
Full screen recommended.
Unfortunately, relations between the United States and Russia are the worst that they have ever been, and we are getting closer to a nuclear war with each passing day. Politicians in the western world assume that the Russians would never risk a nuclear war because the consequences would be so apocalyptic for everyone. But Russian politicians have warned us over and over again that if we push Russia too far there will be a nuclear war.

And as I detailed in my new book entitled “Chaos”, the Russians have been feverishly preparing to fight a nuclear war for many years. They know that there are no “winners” in a nuclear war. But they also know that whoever strikes first will have the best chance of surviving one.

Right now, Russian forces are advancing and Ukrainian leaders are becoming increasingly desperate…“Western leaders are bracing for the Ukrainian army’s collapse as it has only been able to slow the advance of Russian forces amid weapons and ammunition shortages, the Times writes.

In its editorial, titled ‘It’s time we talked about the fall of Kiev’, the paper points out that ‘contrary to the predominant view that this is a perpetual frozen conflict, with neither side able to win a decisive advantage, the front line is bitterly contested and there is a real risk of Ukrainian forces being pushed back’. ‘This is the nightmare scenario now being contemplated by western policymakers’, the Times notes.

Russia’s advance ‘would obviously be disastrous for the Ukrainians’. ‘It would also confront the West with all manner of tough challenges’, the newspaper says. ‘The consequences of a partial or complete defeat would be calamitous in ways western populations have barely begun to understand. But we have a lazy habit in the comfortable West – away from Europe’s front line in east and south Ukraine – of wishful thinking and being unprepared for bad surprises’, the Times emphasizes.”

Ukrainian officials realize that the only way they can win the war is for NATO forces to intervene, and some western leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron are very open to the idea. But Vladimir Putin has warned that this will put us one step away from nuclear war, and he has decided to conscript another 150,000 men into the Russian military…"Vladimir Putin has called up another 150,000 men for Russian army conscription, the highest figure for eight years.

This comes as Orthodox priests have been ordered to say prayers in church for the Russia's victory in the war. The recruits are aged 18 to 30 and will be conscripted between 1 April and 15 July amid his war against Ukraine. The Russians are convinced that western leaders want to bring down the Russian government and divide Russia up into a bunch of smaller pieces.

On the other side, politicians in the western world are determined to do “whatever it takes” to keep the Russians from winning in Ukraine. Both sides are being unreasonable and paranoid, and that is a recipe for disaster. All it is going to take is one mistake to unleash a nuclear cataclysm, and billions of lives hang in the balance."

"The Real World War"

"The Real World War"
by the Zman

"Over the last two years most people who bother paying attention to the world have figured out that the American Empire is waging a proxy war on Russia. The primary proxy is Ukraine, but lesser proxies are also involved. Armenia used to have good relations with Russia but has now been turned into a Western catspaw for the purpose of stirring up trouble in the region. America overthrew the government of Pakistan two years ago so they would not cooperate with Russia.

We could be seeing another front in the war. Israel made the outlandish decision to bomb the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Reportedly the target was a high-ranking Iranian general who was at the facility holding meetings. It could be the other people were the real targets or it could just have been a target of opportunity as Israel tries to draw Iran into a war. Regardless, targeting an embassy in a third country violates centuries of precedent and custom.

Embassies are technically the territory of the country operating them, so this attack on the Iranian embassy is the same as an attack on Iran. That is how the world will view it and certainly how Iran sees it. The Middle East is a dirty place and all of the players, especially Israel, are dirty players, but this is well beyond the norm. There is also the fact that Israel is bombing the capital of Syria, even though there is no state of war between the two countries.

The way to think of this is to imagine if the Russians hit the American embassy in Poland with a missile. Russia is not legally at war with Poland or America, even if both countries are aiding and abetting Ukraine. If the Russians attacked Poland, then it is war, and everyone understands this. Somehow, Israel and her supporters in America seem to think this rule does not apply to Israel. Both China and Russia have come out with strong statements condemning the attack.

One of the worst kept secrets on earth right now is that Israel wants a war with Iran, and they assume this will draw in the United States. The Israelis wanted this war back in the Bush years during the Iraq war. They assume Iran would lose such a war and the regime would be toppled as a result. Israel foreign policy is based on the idea that if the Arab world is in chaos, there will be no organized resistance to Israel. Of course, Iran is also working on getting nuclear weapons.

The question now is what happens next. The Biden administration does not want a war with Iran as the military is stretched thin. Presumably, they will try to make some sort of backroom deal with Iran to defuse things. Russia is the chief sponsor of Syria and has air defense systems in the country. To this point they have not shot down Israeli jets, but that could change now. Russia is also a partner with Iran so the Russians will need to do something to show support for both countries.

China has been making inroads into the region, primarily by helping to facilitate a reproachment between the Saudis and Iran. The peace that now exists between the Houthis and the Saudis is largely a result of this effort. Iran sponsors the Houthis, and they agreed to make peace with the Saudis as part of this warming relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Note the Saudis have not allowed America to use its airspace to attack the Houthis.

In other words, this is not twenty years ago when Iran was alone and largely isolated from the world due to American sanctions. Iran now has two enormously powerful allies, and it is slowly rejoining the Arab alliance led by Saudi Arabia. Iran now has options that it did not have two decades ago. Instead of retaliation we will probably see an effort to win a diplomatic war against Israel, with the help of China and Russia, as Israel is, for all practical purposes, a tentacle of the American Empire.

This is where the real war is being waged at the moment. The American Empire is based on the assertion that the post-Cold War world is a rules-based one led by the United States, who enforces the rules. The repeated violations of the rules by Washington are what drives both Russia and China. Their argument in favor of a multipolar world is that Washington cannot be trusted to follow the rules, so Washington letting Israel violate important rules is a proof of sorts.

There is also the obvious fact that Washington can no longer control Israel. You get to be the lone superpower when everyone has to obey. Israel thumbing its nose at Washington over Gaza is a problem. Israel bombing embassies in third countries is a humiliation of Washington. The Washington led order rests on everyone, including Israel, accepting that order. If Israel does not respect that order, then it will not be long before the rest of the world follows suit.

Of course, what we are seeing in this new world war is chaos all along the borders of the American Empire. Washington’s plan for Russia for the last three decades has been to create chaos around the borders of Russia, believing this would slowly sap her economic and political strength. This is what is now happening to the American Empire, which is forced to race around the world dealing with crises, many of which are the result of its own actions, like we see in Ukraine.

This is what may prevent a regional war in the Middle East. Russia and China know that time is on their side. As a result, Iran also can play the waiting game. At some point, the American Empire will have no choice but to give up on the region. It has largely been driven out at this point. There are American troops in Syria and Iraq, but the cost of supporting them will soon be prohibitive. Instead of Iran retaliating against Israel, she can wait and deal with Israel at a later date.

What we are seeing is the world organizing not for a great final war with the American Empire but the world organizing to manage the decline of the empire. Washington stirs up trouble hoping to preserve itself by unsettling rivals and Israel hopes to start a regional war before her patron is too weak. Meanwhile, the rising powers of the world are trying to avoid a real war with the declining American Empire. The real world war is a war to survive the end of the last empire."

"Some Cheerful Reflections On...Death"

"Some Cheerful Reflections On...Death"
by Ray Jason

“Death twitches my ear;
'Live,' he says...
'I am coming.”
- Virgil

"There are some topics that are never discussed in “polite company.” Fortunately and deliberately, I have surrounded myself with “impolite company.” My friends and I will wonder about the Grassy Knoll. We will question the free-fall speed of the Twin Towers. We will ponder the implications of the Dancing Israelis. In fact, on a really bold day, we might even dare to discuss the JQ.

In these reflections, I will be dealing with “natural death.” This would be someone who has lived past 70 years or so, and then experienced declining health until their body can no longer sustain itself. (I'm 72 - CP)

“Tragic death” is an entirely different category. We witness this in Gaza on a daily basis. When an IDF storm-trooper walks through a hospital casually shooting doctors and patients, those victims did not suffer a natural death. As for the cowardly soldier who butchered them, we can only hope that an Afterlife and a just God awaits him. A suitable Fate for him might be an eternal cycle of re-incarnation every day, followed by an afternoon visit to the Celestial Wood-Chipper – feet first.

Has the word “longevity” caught your attention recently? Only ten years ago you would rarely hear it or read about it. And yet, nowadays, it seems to be everywhere. I’m surprised that children’s breakfast cereals are not yet advertised as being “longevity friendly.”

Now don’t get me wrong. I believe that despite the difficulty and sadness and injustice of Life, it is still a wondrous blessing; and I cherish it dearly. For me, the ideal existence is expressed in Mr. Spock’s Star Trek advice: “Live long and prosper.” I would define that as still having most of one’s physical and mental capacities even as death approaches.

So, what is driving this new obsession with Longevity? IMHO, two things are propelling this phenomenon … Fear and Pride. For Ordinary People, their severe Fear of Death, probably stems from social programming. Their parents, teachers and talking screens ceaselessly instruct them to dread the Reaper. However, for the self-proclaimed Elites, who I prefer to call our Malignant Overlords, their motivation seems to be Pride. They see themselves as being so “special” that they deserve Immortality.

Fear: For most people, their death will be a minimal-pain experience. They will not spend their final hours being interrogated by pathological torturers. For many, it will be peaceful and they may even be surrounded by loved ones. Once death has claimed us, we most likely experience The Big Sleep. We are just gone … and therefore unconscious. The dead person feels no physical pain. Plus, they do not experience emotional longing for the loved ones who live on.

I have always believed that Death is harder for those left behind. This is probably because Society hammers us with the idea that Death is the opposite of Life. But, I believe that it is actually a part of Life. In fact, that belief is the main reason that I am writing this essay. I am trying to help lessen people’s grief by pointing out that Society has made the experience overly and unnecessarily traumatic. Whereas, I believe that Death is simply the final chapter of every individual’s life story.

Something else that might help soften Death’s blow, is the realization that it is universal and inescapable. One needn’t worry that the used car salesman that screwed you in Topeka will escape Death. In fact, it is the one aspect of Life in which true Equality is actually achieved.

Pride: Most normal people just wish to be left alone and to have a decent life for their family. They realize that death is inescapable, but they also know that their legacy will be carried on by their children. That is sufficient comfort for them. But the Malignant Overlords are consumed by gluttony. Their desire for more, more, more of everything, everything, everything, has overpowered them to the point that they now seek Immortality.

I assume that down through the centuries many rulers have perceived themselves as so radiantly perfect that they should not be allowed to die. Unfortunately, life extension technologies are starting to catch up to the swaggering fantasies of super-rich egomaniacs.

With massive financial resources, they can swap out their blood with transfusions from young donors. They purchase heart transplants as casually as buying a new yacht. And the most horrific of the monsters, use adrenochrome in their lust for eternal life. They indulge their vanity by using cryonics, in which their body is frozen in the hopes that it can be thawed out and revitalized in the future. And their latest grasp at Immortality is through Trans-humanism. This technology would mate their natural, carbon-based body with an artificial, silica-based entity.

Even if this becomes possible, what will they have achieved? Yes, they might have bequeathed themselves an endless future. But, in doing so, they will have transformed themselves into a neuro-linked, artificial-intelligence cyborg. This might seem blissful for a while until they are plugged into The Main Terminal. And then how long is it before they become slaves to the Borg? 

Which would of course be sweetly ironic, since they would get to experience what we have gone through under their rule. They would get a taste of what it is like to be The Little People …The Little Carbon People."
Hat tip to The Burning Platform for this material.
o
"Amen"

 "No, I don't feel death coming.
I feel death going:
having thrown up his hands,
for the moment.
I feel like I know him
better than I did.
Those arms held me,
for a while,
and, when we meet again,
there will be that secret knowledge
between us."
- James Baldwin

Gregory Mannarino, "Look Out! Full-on Crisis!"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 4/2/24
"Look Out! Full-on Crisis!
Multiple Warnings From Blackrock, JPM, And The FED!"
Comments here:

Adventures With Danno, "I Went Shopping For Groceries & Medicines at Meijer!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 4/2/24
"I Went Shopping For Groceries & Medicines at Meijer!"
"Shop along with me on my grocery shopping adventure, 
trying to find some good prices on food and other things!"
Comments here:
o
Meanwhile, elsewhere...
Full screen recommended.
Travelling with Russell, 4/2/24
"I Went to Russia's Newest Shopping Mall: Kuzminki Mall"
"What does a Russian typical shopping mall look like inside? Join me on a tour of the newest shopping mall in Russia. Kuzminki Mall is located in Moscow, Russia. It opened its doors in March 2024 under extreme sanctions in Russia."
Comments here:

"WAR! Emergency! Mass Evacuation From 2nd Biggest City, Israel Launches War On Iran! Bunkers Being Loaded"

Full screen recommended.
 Canadian Prepper, 4/1/24
"Emergency! Mass Evacuation From 2nd Biggest City, 
Israel Launches War On Iran! Bunkers Being Loaded"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
"Russia & Muslims Nations' Chilling Warning To 
Israel After Iran Embassy Attack; U.S. Denies Role"
o
"Israel Will Be Punished’: Hezbollah, 
Iran Vow Revenge For Israeli Strikes In Syria"
Iran must declare war on Israel, as will Hezbollah and Syria.
This viciously rabid mad dog must and will be put down...

Monday, April 1, 2024

"Israel's Bombing of Iran's Embassy Marks HUGE Escalation"

Full screen recommended.
Richard Medhurst, 4/1/24
"Israel's Bombing of Iran's Embassy Marks HUGE Escalation"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
9 News Australia, 4/1/24
"Deadly Airstrike On Iranian Consulate In Damascus"
"A former Pentagon operative and White House adviser speaks about an attack on an Iranian consulate in Damascus which left several people dead."
Comments here:

"Israel is Evil personified. Israel is Evil embodied."
- Scott Ritter

"My Friend Is Struggling To Survive; Restaurants Are About To Vanish; Fast Food Worker Layoffs"

Jeremiah Babe, 4/1/24
"My Friend Is Struggling To Survive; 
Restaurants Are About To Vanish; Fast Food Worker Layoffs"
Comments here:

Redacted, "This Is Only Phase 2 Of Biden's Border Invasion Plan"

Redacted, 4/1/24
"This Is Only Phase 2 Of Biden's Border Invasion Plan"
Comments here:

Dan, I Allegedly, "Just When You Thought It Was Over"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, PM 4/1/24
"Just When You Thought It Was Over"
"It’s amazing how we get new stories that tell us everything‘s going to be OK. The latest is we’re hearing about all of this squatter reform that’s happening. And then we find out that the squatters are rampant."
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: 2002, "Remember Now"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "Remember Now"
The inspiration for this song was a "Star Trek: The Next Generation" episode called "The Offspring". Data (an android) creates a "child" for himself which he names Lal (in the Hindi language, Lal means "Beloved"). Lal eventually dies in Data's arms, remembering and retelling the precious moments she has lived. Data transferred Lal's thoughts into his own neural net, so that she would not be forgotten.

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Colorful NGC 1579 resembles the better known Trifid Nebula, but lies much farther north in planet Earth's sky, in the heroic constellation Perseus. About 2,100 light-years away and 3 light-years across, NGC 1579 is, like the Trifid, a study in contrasting blue and red colors, with dark dust lanes prominent in the nebula's central regions.
In both, dust reflects starlight to produce beautiful blue reflection nebulae. But unlike the Trifid, in NGC 1579 the reddish glow is not emission from clouds of glowing hydrogen gas excited by ultraviolet light from a nearby hot star. Instead, the dust in NGC 1579 drastically diminishes, reddens, and scatters the light from an embedded, extremely young, massive star, itself a strong emitter of the characteristic red hydrogen alpha light."