A Large Scale Nuclear War Between The U.S. And Russia"
By Michael Snyder
"We have never been closer to nuclear war than we are right now. If the conflict in Ukraine sparks a large scale nuclear war between the United States and Russia, billions of people could die. This is why so many of us desperately want leaders from both sides to sit down at the negotiating table and try to work out their differences peacefully. Perhaps a peaceful solution is not possible, but for the good of humanity they should at least make an attempt. Because as things stand right now, all it is going to take is one mistake for the world to be plunged into an unthinkable nuclear cataclysm.
According to author Annie Jacobsen, the U.S. has a network of satellites that is constantly watching for an ICBM launch from one of our enemies…“The US Defense Department has an early warning system. And the system in space is called SBIRS, a constellation of satellites that is keeping an eye on all of America’s enemies.
So the moment an ICBM launches, they see the hot rocket exhaust on the ICBM a fraction of a second after it launches. And so there begins this horrifying policy called launch on warning, and that’s the US counterattack. The reason that the United States is so ferociously watching for a nuclear launch somewhere around the globe is so that the nuclear command and control system in the US can move into action to immediately make a counterstrike. That policy, launch on warning, is exactly like it says, it means the United States will not wait to absorb a nuclear attack. It will launch nuclear weapons in response before the bomb actually hits.”
In the event of a surprise first strike, there would only be a handful of minutes to get the president out of bed and decide what to do. Needless to say, the president would not want to launch a counterstrike if it is a false alarm. Because once the missiles are in the air, there is no calling them back.
When a nuclear warhead explodes, a fireball is created that is unimaginably hot. The following comes from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists…"Microseconds into the explosion of a nuclear weapon, energy released in the form of X-rays heats the surrounding environment, forming a fireball of superheated air. Inside the fireball, the temperature and pressure are so extreme that all matter is rendered into a hot plasma of bare nuclei and subatomic particles, as is the case in the Sun’s multi-million-degree core.
The fireball following the airburst explosion of a 300-kiloton nuclear weapon - like the W87 thermonuclear warhead deployed on the Minuteman III missiles currently in service in the US nuclear arsenal - can grow to more than 600 meters (2,000 feet) in diameter and stays blindingly luminous for several seconds, before its surface cools.
The light radiated by the fireball’s heat - accounting for more than one-third of the thermonuclear weapon’s explosive energy - will be so intense that it ignites fires and causes severe burns at great distances. The thermal flash from a 300-kiloton nuclear weapon could cause first-degree burns as far as 13 kilometers (8 miles) from ground zero."
If you are at ground zero, you will have zero chance of surviving. According to a study that was conducted several years ago, approximately 34 million people would die during the first few hours of a large scale nuclear war between the United States and Russia. But that would be just the first wave of death.
In the aftermath of a nuclear exchange, radioactive fallout would spread over much of the continental United States…"Using archived weather data over 48-hour periods across a number of dates in 2021 to simulate the expected radioactive plume, the scientists found that the West Coast states were the lowest risk due to a prevailing easterly wind.
However, depending on the exact wind direction, the worst fallout could fall over any part of the U.S. and Canada east of Idaho. Based on weather patterns on December 2, 2021, Chicago, Illinois and D.C., among other population centers, would be in the direct path of a fatal dose of radiation.
In a worst-case scenario, almost all of Montana and North Dakota, as well as parts of Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming, South Dakota and Kansas would receive a dose more than 10 times what is considered lethal, resulting in deaths in a matter of days. Most of the Midwest would receive a lethal dose, while elsewhere would see deaths occur in weeks." Radioactive fallout would kill far more people than the initial explosions would. But the good news is that radiation levels would dissipate fairly rapidly.
As horrific as those statistics are, the tens to hundreds of millions of people dead and injured within the first few days of a nuclear conflict would only be the beginnings of a catastrophe that eventually will encompass the whole world. Global climatic changes, widespread radioactive contamination, and societal collapse virtually everywhere could be the reality that survivors of a nuclear war would contend with for many decades.
Two years after any nuclear war - small or large - famine alone could be more than 10 times as deadly as the hundreds of bomb blasts involved in the war itself. Ultimately, nuclear winter will kill more people than anything else.
For those of us that live in the northern hemisphere, it will be exceedingly difficult to grow much of anything once temperatures drop far below normal…"This makes Earth freezing cold even during the summer, with farmland in Kansas cooling by about 20 degrees centigrade (about 40 degrees Fahrenheit), and other regions cooling almost twice as much. A recent scientific paper estimates that over 5 billion people could starve to death, including around 99% of those in the US, Europe, Russia, and China – because most black carbon smoke stays in the Northern hemisphere where it’s produced, and because temperature drops harm agriculture more at high latitudes."
Can you imagine what our world would look like if such a war actually happened?
Full screen recommended.
Unfortunately, relations between the United States and Russia are the worst that they have ever been, and we are getting closer to a nuclear war with each passing day. Politicians in the western world assume that the Russians would never risk a nuclear war because the consequences would be so apocalyptic for everyone. But Russian politicians have warned us over and over again that if we push Russia too far there will be a nuclear war.
And as I detailed in my new book entitled “Chaos”, the Russians have been feverishly preparing to fight a nuclear war for many years. They know that there are no “winners” in a nuclear war. But they also know that whoever strikes first will have the best chance of surviving one.
Right now, Russian forces are advancing and Ukrainian leaders are becoming increasingly desperate…“Western leaders are bracing for the Ukrainian army’s collapse as it has only been able to slow the advance of Russian forces amid weapons and ammunition shortages, the Times writes.
In its editorial, titled ‘It’s time we talked about the fall of Kiev’, the paper points out that ‘contrary to the predominant view that this is a perpetual frozen conflict, with neither side able to win a decisive advantage, the front line is bitterly contested and there is a real risk of Ukrainian forces being pushed back’. ‘This is the nightmare scenario now being contemplated by western policymakers’, the Times notes.
Russia’s advance ‘would obviously be disastrous for the Ukrainians’. ‘It would also confront the West with all manner of tough challenges’, the newspaper says. ‘The consequences of a partial or complete defeat would be calamitous in ways western populations have barely begun to understand. But we have a lazy habit in the comfortable West – away from Europe’s front line in east and south Ukraine – of wishful thinking and being unprepared for bad surprises’, the Times emphasizes.”
Ukrainian officials realize that the only way they can win the war is for NATO forces to intervene, and some western leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron are very open to the idea. But Vladimir Putin has warned that this will put us one step away from nuclear war, and he has decided to conscript another 150,000 men into the Russian military…"Vladimir Putin has called up another 150,000 men for Russian army conscription, the highest figure for eight years.
This comes as Orthodox priests have been ordered to say prayers in church for the Russia's victory in the war. The recruits are aged 18 to 30 and will be conscripted between 1 April and 15 July amid his war against Ukraine. The Russians are convinced that western leaders want to bring down the Russian government and divide Russia up into a bunch of smaller pieces.
On the other side, politicians in the western world are determined to do “whatever it takes” to keep the Russians from winning in Ukraine. Both sides are being unreasonable and paranoid, and that is a recipe for disaster. All it is going to take is one mistake to unleash a nuclear cataclysm, and billions of lives hang in the balance."
"Over the last two years most people who bother paying attention to the world have figured out that the American Empire is waging a proxy war on Russia. The primary proxy is Ukraine, but lesser proxies are also involved. Armenia used to have good relations with Russia but has now been turned into a Western catspaw for the purpose of stirring up trouble in the region. America overthrew the government of Pakistan two years ago so they would not cooperate with Russia.
We could be seeing another front in the war. Israel made the outlandish decision to bomb the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Reportedly the target was a high-ranking Iranian general who was at the facility holding meetings. It could be the other people were the real targets or it could just have been a target of opportunity as Israel tries to draw Iran into a war. Regardless, targeting an embassy in a third country violates centuries of precedent and custom.
Embassies are technically the territory of the country operating them, so this attack on the Iranian embassy is the same as an attack on Iran. That is how the world will view it and certainly how Iran sees it. The Middle East is a dirty place and all of the players, especially Israel, are dirty players, but this is well beyond the norm. There is also the fact that Israel is bombing the capital of Syria, even though there is no state of war between the two countries.
The way to think of this is to imagine if the Russians hit the American embassy in Poland with a missile. Russia is not legally at war with Poland or America, even if both countries are aiding and abetting Ukraine. If the Russians attacked Poland, then it is war, and everyone understands this. Somehow, Israel and her supporters in America seem to think this rule does not apply to Israel. Both China and Russia have come out with strong statements condemning the attack.
One of the worst kept secrets on earth right now is that Israel wants a war with Iran, and they assume this will draw in the United States. The Israelis wanted this war back in the Bush years during the Iraq war. They assume Iran would lose such a war and the regime would be toppled as a result. Israel foreign policy is based on the idea that if the Arab world is in chaos, there will be no organized resistance to Israel. Of course, Iran is also working on getting nuclear weapons.
The question now is what happens next. The Biden administration does not want a war with Iran as the military is stretched thin. Presumably, they will try to make some sort of backroom deal with Iran to defuse things. Russia is the chief sponsor of Syria and has air defense systems in the country. To this point they have not shot down Israeli jets, but that could change now. Russia is also a partner with Iran so the Russians will need to do something to show support for both countries.
China has been making inroads into the region, primarily by helping to facilitate a reproachment between the Saudis and Iran. The peace that now exists between the Houthis and the Saudis is largely a result of this effort. Iran sponsors the Houthis, and they agreed to make peace with the Saudis as part of this warming relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Note the Saudis have not allowed America to use its airspace to attack the Houthis.
In other words, this is not twenty years ago when Iran was alone and largely isolated from the world due to American sanctions. Iran now has two enormously powerful allies, and it is slowly rejoining the Arab alliance led by Saudi Arabia. Iran now has options that it did not have two decades ago. Instead of retaliation we will probably see an effort to win a diplomatic war against Israel, with the help of China and Russia, as Israel is, for all practical purposes, a tentacle of the American Empire.
This is where the real war is being waged at the moment. The American Empire is based on the assertion that the post-Cold War world is a rules-based one led by the United States, who enforces the rules. The repeated violations of the rules by Washington are what drives both Russia and China. Their argument in favor of a multipolar world is that Washington cannot be trusted to follow the rules, so Washington letting Israel violate important rules is a proof of sorts.
There is also the obvious fact that Washington can no longer control Israel. You get to be the lone superpower when everyone has to obey. Israel thumbing its nose at Washington over Gaza is a problem. Israel bombing embassies in third countries is a humiliation of Washington. The Washington led order rests on everyone, including Israel, accepting that order. If Israel does not respect that order, then it will not be long before the rest of the world follows suit.
Of course, what we are seeing in this new world war is chaos all along the borders of the American Empire. Washington’s plan for Russia for the last three decades has been to create chaos around the borders of Russia, believing this would slowly sap her economic and political strength. This is what is now happening to the American Empire, which is forced to race around the world dealing with crises, many of which are the result of its own actions, like we see in Ukraine.
This is what may prevent a regional war in the Middle East. Russia and China know that time is on their side. As a result, Iran also can play the waiting game. At some point, the American Empire will have no choice but to give up on the region. It has largely been driven out at this point. There are American troops in Syria and Iraq, but the cost of supporting them will soon be prohibitive. Instead of Iran retaliating against Israel, she can wait and deal with Israel at a later date.
What we are seeing is the world organizing not for a great final war with the American Empire but the world organizing to manage the decline of the empire. Washington stirs up trouble hoping to preserve itself by unsettling rivals and Israel hopes to start a regional war before her patron is too weak. Meanwhile, the rising powers of the world are trying to avoid a real war with the declining American Empire. The real world war is a war to survive the end of the last empire."
"There are some topics that are never discussed in “polite company.” Fortunately and deliberately, I have surrounded myself with “impolite company.” My friends and I will wonder about the Grassy Knoll. We will question the free-fall speed of the Twin Towers. We will ponder the implications of the Dancing Israelis. In fact, on a really bold day, we might even dare to discuss the JQ.
In these reflections, I will be dealing with “natural death.” This would be someone who has lived past 70 years or so, and then experienced declining health until their body can no longer sustain itself. (I'm 72 - CP)
“Tragic death” is an entirely different category. We witness this in Gaza on a daily basis. When an IDF storm-trooper walks through a hospital casually shooting doctors and patients, those victims did not suffer a natural death. As for the cowardly soldier who butchered them, we can only hope that an Afterlife and a just God awaits him. A suitable Fate for him might be an eternal cycle of re-incarnation every day, followed by an afternoon visit to the Celestial Wood-Chipper – feet first.
Has the word “longevity” caught your attention recently? Only ten years ago you would rarely hear it or read about it. And yet, nowadays, it seems to be everywhere. I’m surprised that children’s breakfast cereals are not yet advertised as being “longevity friendly.”
Now don’t get me wrong. I believe that despite the difficulty and sadness and injustice of Life, it is still a wondrous blessing; and I cherish it dearly. For me, the ideal existence is expressed in Mr. Spock’s Star Trek advice: “Live long and prosper.” I would define that as still having most of one’s physical and mental capacities even as death approaches.
So, what is driving this new obsession with Longevity? IMHO, two things are propelling this phenomenon … Fear and Pride. For Ordinary People, their severe Fear of Death, probably stems from social programming. Their parents, teachers and talking screens ceaselessly instruct them to dread the Reaper. However, for the self-proclaimed Elites, who I prefer to call our Malignant Overlords, their motivation seems to be Pride. They see themselves as being so “special” that they deserve Immortality.
Fear: For most people, their death will be a minimal-pain experience. They will not spend their final hours being interrogated by pathological torturers. For many, it will be peaceful and they may even be surrounded by loved ones. Once death has claimed us, we most likely experience The Big Sleep. We are just gone … and therefore unconscious. The dead person feels no physical pain. Plus, they do not experience emotional longing for the loved ones who live on.
I have always believed that Death is harder for those left behind. This is probably because Society hammers us with the idea that Death is the opposite of Life. But, I believe that it is actually a part of Life. In fact, that belief is the main reason that I am writing this essay. I am trying to help lessen people’s grief by pointing out that Society has made the experience overly and unnecessarily traumatic. Whereas, I believe that Death is simply the final chapter of every individual’s life story.
Something else that might help soften Death’s blow, is the realization that it is universal and inescapable. One needn’t worry that the used car salesman that screwed you in Topeka will escape Death. In fact, it is the one aspect of Life in which true Equality is actually achieved.
Pride: Most normal people just wish to be left alone and to have a decent life for their family. They realize that death is inescapable, but they also know that their legacy will be carried on by their children. That is sufficient comfort for them. But the Malignant Overlords are consumed by gluttony. Their desire for more, more, more of everything, everything, everything, has overpowered them to the point that they now seek Immortality.
I assume that down through the centuries many rulers have perceived themselves as so radiantly perfect that they should not be allowed to die. Unfortunately, life extension technologies are starting to catch up to the swaggering fantasies of super-rich egomaniacs.
With massive financial resources, they can swap out their blood with transfusions from young donors. They purchase heart transplants as casually as buying a new yacht. And the most horrific of the monsters, use adrenochrome in their lust for eternal life. They indulge their vanity by using cryonics, in which their body is frozen in the hopes that it can be thawed out and revitalized in the future. And their latest grasp at Immortality is through Trans-humanism. This technology would mate their natural, carbon-based body with an artificial, silica-based entity.
Even if this becomes possible, what will they have achieved? Yes, they might have bequeathed themselves an endless future. But, in doing so, they will have transformed themselves into a neuro-linked, artificial-intelligence cyborg. This might seem blissful for a while until they are plugged into The Main Terminal. And then how long is it before they become slaves to the Borg?
Which would of course be sweetly ironic, since they would get to experience what we have gone through under their rule. They would get a taste of what it is like to be The Little People …The Little Carbon People."
"I Went to Russia's Newest Shopping Mall: Kuzminki Mall"
"What does a Russian typical shopping mall look like inside? Join me on a tour of the newest shopping mall in Russia. Kuzminki Mall is located in Moscow, Russia. It opened its doors in March 2024 under extreme sanctions in Russia."
"It’s amazing how we get new stories that tell us everything‘s going to be OK. The latest is we’re hearing about all of this squatter reform that’s happening. And then we find out that the squatters are rampant."
The inspiration for this song was a "Star Trek: The Next Generation" episode called "The Offspring". Data (an android) creates a "child" for himself which he names Lal (in the Hindi language, Lal means "Beloved"). Lal eventually dies in Data's arms, remembering and retelling the precious moments she has lived. Data transferred Lal's thoughts into his own neural net, so that she would not be forgotten.
"Colorful NGC 1579 resembles the better known Trifid Nebula, but lies much farther north in planet Earth's sky, in the heroic constellation Perseus. About 2,100 light-years away and 3 light-years across, NGC 1579 is, like the Trifid, a study in contrasting blue and red colors, with dark dust lanes prominent in the nebula's central regions.
In both, dust reflects starlight to produce beautiful blue reflection nebulae. But unlike the Trifid, in NGC 1579 the reddish glow is not emission from clouds of glowing hydrogen gas excited by ultraviolet light from a nearby hot star. Instead, the dust in NGC 1579 drastically diminishes, reddens, and scatters the light from an embedded, extremely young, massive star, itself a strong emitter of the characteristic red hydrogen alpha light."
“We all know that something is eternal. And it ain’t houses and it ain’t names, and it ain’t earth, and it ain’t even the stars… everybody knows in their bones that something is eternal, and that something has to do with human beings. All the greatest people ever lived have been telling us that for five thousand years and yet you’d be surprised how people are always losing hold of it. There’s something way down deep that’s eternal about every human being.”
- Thornton Wilder
◆
“I believe that imagination is stronger than knowledge.
That myth is more potent than history.
I believe that dreams are more powerful than facts.
That hope always triumphs over experience.
That laughter is the only cure for grief.
And I believe that love is stronger than death.”
- Robert Fulghum
◆
“For Those Who Have Died”
“Eleh Ezkerah” (“These We Remember”)
“Tis a fearful thing
To love
What death can touch.
To love, to hope, to dream,
And oh, to lose.
A thing for fools, this,
Love,
But a holy thing,
To love what death can touch.
For your life has lived in me;
Your laugh once lifted me;
Your word was a gift to me.
To remember this brings painful joy.
Tis a human thing, love,
A holy thing,
To love
What death can touch.”
- Chaim Stern
Graphic: “Into The Silent Land”,
by Henry Pegram, 1905
◆
“We are travelers on a cosmic journey, stardust, swirling and dancing in the eddies and whirlpools of Infinity. Life is Eternal. We have stopped for a moment to encounter each other, to meet, to love, to share. This is a precious moment. It is a little parenthesis in Eternity.”
- Paulo Coelho
◆
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
“Not every man knows what is waiting for him, or what he shall sing,
when the ship he is on slips into darkness, there at the end.”
“It’s such a lucky accident, having been born, that we’re almost obliged to pay attention,” the Pulitzer-winning poet Mark Strand (April 11, 1934–November 29, 2014) observed in contemplating the artist’s task to bear witness to the universe. And yet this universe in which we live is predicated on impermanence, and the lucky accident of our existence is crowned with the certitude of its end from the start. Why, then, are we always so shocked by the finitude of all we hold dear and, above all, by our own mortality? Few are those who can say with sincerity, like Rilke did an exquisite 1923 letter, that “death is our friend precisely because it brings us into absolute and passionate presence with all that is here, that is natural, that is love.” Instead, we spend our lives shuddering at any reminder of our inevitable end, unsalved by the miracle of having lived at all.
Montaigne articulated the central paradox of being perfectly in 16th-century meditation on death and the art of living: “To lament that we shall not be alive a hundred years hence, is the same folly as to be sorry we were not alive a hundred years ago.” Still, lament we do, and some of our greatest art gives voice to that lamentation.
In this hauntingly beautiful recording, courtesy of The New York Public Library, an aged Strand reads his poignant poem shortly before he repaid his own debt to mortality:
"The End"
by Mark Strand
"Not every man knows what he shall sing at the end,
Watching the pier as the ship sails away, or what it will seem like
When he’s held by the sea’s roar, motionless, there at the end,
Or what he shall hope for once it is clear that he’ll never go back.
When the time has passed to prune the rose or caress the cat,
When the sunset torching the lawn and the full moon icing it down
No longer appear, not every man knows what he’ll discover instead.
When the weight of the past leans against nothing, and the sky
Is no more than remembered light, and the stories of cirrus
And cumulus come to a close, and all the birds are suspended in flight,
Not every man knows what is waiting for him, or what he shall sing
When the ship he is on slips into darkness, there at the end."
And yet I changed despite myself and believed in Iktomi's lies.
He seemed to know all the truth,
he promised to make me happy.
He made me ask Wakan Tanka for wealth, that I might have power;
I was given poverty, that I might find my inner strength.
I asked for fame, so others would know me;
I was given obscurity, that I might know myself.
I asked for a person to love that I might never be alone;
I was given a life of a hermit, that I might learn to accept myself.
I asked for power, that I might achieve;
I was given weakness, that I might learn to obey.
I asked for health, that I might lead a long life;
I was given infirmity, that I might appreciate each minute.
I asked Mother Earth for strength, that I might have my way;
I was given weakness, that I might feel the need for Her.
I asked to live happily, that I might enjoy life;
I was given life, that I might live happily.
I received nothing I asked for, yet all my wishes came true.
Despite myself and Iktomi, my dreams were fulfilled,
I am richly blessed more than I ever hoped,
I thank you, Wakan Tanka, for what you've given me.”
- Billy Mills, Oglala Lakota (1938-)
○
"In Lakota mythology, Iktomi is a spider-trickster spirit, and a culture hero for the Lakota people. Alternate names for Iktomi include Ikto, Ictinike, Inktomi, Unktome, and Unktomi. These names are due to the differences in tribal languages, as this spider deity was known throughout many of North America's tribes. Iktomi can be compared to the African trickster figure Anansi, and to some extent, the transculturated Yoruba Ellegua, also depicted as a trickster disguised in red. Due to his nature as a Trickster as well as patronage of communication, Iktomi is also comparable to the Greco-Roman Hermes/Mercurius (Mercury)."
"In Native American mythology, Wakan Tanka (great mystery) is the supreme being and creator of the Lakota Sioux. Sometimes called Great Spirit, he is similar to the supreme beings found in the myths of many other North American peoples. According to Lakota myth, before creation Wakan Tanka existed in a great emptiness called Han (darkness). Feeling lonely, he decided to create companions for himself. First, Great Spirit focused his energy into a powerful force to form Inyan (rock), the first god. Next, he used Inyan to create Maka (earth) and then mated with that god to produce Skan (sky). Skan brought forth Wi (the sun) from Inyan, Maka, and himself. These four gods were separate and powerful, but they were all part of Wakan Tanka.
The first four gods produced four companions - Moon, Wind, Falling Star, and Thunderbird - to help with the process of creation. In turn, these companions created various gods and spirits, including Whirlwind, Four Winds, Buffalo, Two-Legged Creatures (humans and bears), Sicun (thought), Nagi (spirit of death), Niya (breath of life), and Nagila (shadow). All of these beings were aspects of Wakan Tanka. Together, they created and oversee everything that exists."
"We said together, wistfully, 'Life, eh?' It says everything without having to say anything: that we all experience moments of joyful or painful reflection, sometimes alone, sometimes sharing laughs and tears with others; that we all know and appreciate that however wonderful and precious life is, it can equally be a terribly confusing and mysterious beast. 'Life, eh?"
Deficits are especially important. If the government takes in $100 in tax revenues, and
spends it, it removes that money from the consumer economy. No net increase to GDP.
by Bill Bonner
Dublin, Ireland - "April Fool! The inflation and GDP numbers are just ‘made up.’ Last week, the economic news, coming from inside the Beltway, was swell. MarketWatch: "GDP update boosts U.S. fourth-quarter economic growth rate to 3.4%. The final reading of U.S. growth in the 2023 fourth quarter was raised a few notches to a 3.4% annual pace, reflecting strong consumer spending and a surprisingly resilient economy. The government previously said gross domestic product had expanded at a 3.2% rate in the final three months of last year. The figure is adjusted for inflation."
‘Adjusted for inflation’ is one of those expressions like, ‘we were only following orders;’ it can hide a mountain of mischief. Over the last two years, we have often seen the inflation of the ’22-’23 period compared to the inflation of the 1970s. We have been told that today’s inflation rate peaked at 9% in 2022 and then came down quickly. But if you measured today’s price increases the way they did in the ‘70s, you’d see that our current inflation is much worse today than it was then.
Marc Faber reports: "Former Secretary of the Treasury for President Clinton, Lawrence H. Summers, recently published a figure which showed that inflation had been and still was far higher than what the BLS had calculated…. Using the CPI as calculated before 1983, Summers estimated last year’s peak inflation at 18%. According to his methodology, interest rates would still be far too low. In other words, Bidenomics, with large fiscal deficits and negative real interest rates, would still be inflationary."
Are you thinking what we’re thinking? If the inflation reading is false, so is the GDP rate. And so is the whole financial picture.
Let us begin with the measure of inflation itself. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), food rose (at an annual rate) of 2.7% last year; services went up 3.5%, and shelter rose 4.8%. Already, we are deeply suspicious. Charlie Bilello reports: "The monthly mortgage payment needed to buy the median-priced home in the US has increased 80% over the last 4 years, moving from $1,500 per month to $2,700.
Between higher mortgage payments and higher house prices, an increase of only 4.8% for the cost of shelter seems almost impossible. But even taking the BLS numbers, it is hard to see how they could apply a ‘deflator’ of just 1.66%. Which is just proof that although numbers may not lie intentionally, if you torture them enough they will say whatever you want them to say.
And if you use the 1980 method of calculation, the whole picture of the US economy suddenly turns dark. Summers’ numbers show price increases through the end of last year running in the 10% to 12% range. Deflating the nominal GDP number, then, would give us a NEGATIVE growth rate of at least MINUS 7% - a huge loss in real GDP."
And what about the stock market? When you get a ‘gain’ or a ‘profit’ from your stocks, you think you are better off. And now, everyone thinks the stock market has ‘recovered’ from its 2022 sell-off. But has it? A fair guess is that consumer prices are 25% higher than they were at the Dow peak in 2021. If so, the Dow would have to go to 45,000... just to breakeven.
Down in gold terms: We turn to gold to try to keep our story straight. From its peak at the end of 2021, to today, the Dow is up almost 4,000 points. But adjusted for the price of gold, it is still down nearly 10%. Backwards? Forwards? Which way are we going?
Another curiosity of the GDP growth story is the role of fiscal deficits. If the government spends another billion dollars – even if it is frittered away on weapons – the amount is included as a plus in GDP. So, the more the feds spend, the higher GDP goes... at least in the short-run.
Deficits are especially important. If the government takes in $100 in tax revenues, and spends it, it removes that money from the consumer economy. No net increase to GDP. But if it borrows the money, the extra spending it comes as if ‘out of nowhere’, and is added to the total. There is no offsetting draw-down in the consumer economy, so GDP goes up.
Last year, federal deficits were 6% of GDP. That was money that the feds spent, but didn’t raise from taxes. It must have gone somewhere. So, here’s a simple question: How could the feds pump an additional 6% (of GDP) into the economy, with almost $3 trillion added to the national debt, but only get an increase of 3.4% (annualized from the fourth quarter) in GDP? What happened to the other 2.6%? Where’s the missing $1.2 trillion? Where did the money go?
Does this mean that the real - non-government - economy is actually shrinking at such an alarming rate that it wipes out much of the feds’ new-money inputs? Or are these numbers just so ‘made up’ that they are meaningless? More tomorrow..."
“To me, there are three things we all should do every day. We should do this every day of our lives. Number one is laugh. You should laugh every day. Number two is think. You should spend some time in thought. And number three is, you should have your emotions moved to tears, could be happiness or joy. But think about it. If you laugh, you think, and you cry, that’s a full day. That’s a heck of a day. You do that seven days a week, you’re going to have something special. I just got one last thing... I urge all of you, all of you, to enjoy your life, the precious moments you have.”
"It is common to assume that human progress affects everyone - that even the dullest man, in these bright days, knows more than any man of, say, the Eighteenth Century, and is far more civilized. This assumption is quite erroneous. The great masses of men, even in this inspired republic, are precisely where the mob was at the dawn of history. They are ignorant, they are dishonest, they are cowardly, they are ignoble. They know little if anything that is worth knowing, and there is not the slightest sign of a natural desire among them to increase their knowledge."