Full screen recommended.
2002, "A Change of Season"
So, we rise from the rubble...
Tuesday, November 21, 2023
"A Look to the Heavens"
“The dark Horsehead Nebula and the glowing Orion Nebula are contrasting cosmic vistas. Adrift 1,500 light-years away in one of the night sky's most recognizable constellations, they appear in opposite corners of the below stunning mosaic.
The familiar Horsehead nebula appears as a dark cloud, a small silhouette notched against the long red glow at the lower left. Alnitak is the easternmost star in Orion's belt and is seen as the brightest star to the left of the Horsehead. Below Alnitak is the Flame Nebula, with clouds of bright emission and dramatic dark dust lanes. The magnificent emission region, the Orion Nebula (aka M42), lies at the upper right. Immediately to its left is a prominent bluish reflection nebula sometimes called the Running Man. Pervasive tendrils of glowing hydrogen gas are easily traced throughout the region.”
Chet Raymo, “Non-overlapping?”
“Non-overlapping?”
by Chet Raymo
“Let me posit a difference between religion and science:
Religion: Future>Present>Past
Science: Past>Present>Future.
Let me explain. Religion, as it has traditionally been understood in its institutional guise, begins with the dream of a comforting future. An escape from the apparently inescapable reality of death. Which impacts our daily lives in the present. Determines, for example, codes of morality, inspires great deeds of goodness or mayhem. Mandates rites and rituals. Appease the gods and live forever. Which requires a story to satisfy the human need for context. So we look to past reports of foundational miracles. Christ rising from the dead. Muhammad's night flight to Jerusalem. Joseph Smith's encounter with the angel Moroni.
Science, on the other hand, begins with the past. With sequences of events that appear to be causally related. The causal connection is affirmed or refuted by experiment. If such-and-such occurred in certain circumstances in the past, does it also occur in the present? We devise quantitative "laws of nature" that express our consistent experience with the past. Which can be extrapolated to predict probable futures.
Stephen Jay Gould called religion and science "non-overlapping magisteria." But they run in opposite directions in our minds. The a priori future of religion is not the same as the a posteriori future predicted by science. Nor is the a posteriori past promulgated by religion susceptible to the a priori examination of science. The opposing intellectual streams of religion and science may be non-overlapping, but the "real" worlds they hypothesize are sharply divergent. Some folks manage to hold both worlds in their minds simultaneously. To me this smacks of cognitive dissonance. For those who can pull it off, more power to them - as long as they don't restrict my freedom to dissent.”
"You Can Never Tell..."
"You can never tell what people have inside them
until you start taking it away, one hope at a time."
- Gregory David Roberts
"The Great and the Good"
"The Great and the Good"
Examining a crucial historical pivot in recent American history...
By Bill Bonner
"Sagest in the council was he, kindest in the hall.
Sure we never won a battle – ‘twas Owen won them all.
Had he lived – had he lived – our dear country had been free;
But he’s dead, but he’s dead, and ‘tis slaves we’ll ever be…"
"Lament for the Death of Owen Roe O’Neill", By Thomas Davis
Youghal, Ireland - On November 22, 1963, John F. Kennedy was shot. He died soon after. Much of the world went into mourning. Never before or since has Washington seen such a gathering of dignitaries…nor so many common folk…all who came to pay their respects.
Jack Kennedy had made many friends. His New Frontier was widely applauded. At home, he lowered the top marginal tax rate from 91% to 65%. Abroad, he sought peace. He explained in a speech at American University that his kind of peace was “not a Pax Americana enforced on the world by American weapons of war. Not the peace of the grave or the security of the slave."
And yet, after his death, American weapons were soon at work, creating a world, not at peace, but almost constantly at war. Before his assassination, JFK had sent out an order, bringing US troops back from Vietnam. That order was quickly forgotten. The new president, LBJ, had another program, much more to the liking of the ‘military industrial complex.’ Over the next 11 years, 2.7 million American soldiers would go to fight a war that Johnson had promised would be a war for the Vietnamese to fight. By the time the last US helicopter escaped from the US embassy roof in 1975, 58,000 Americans had died and a trillion dollars had been spent. More importantly, the good had given way to the great.
An Historical Pivot: We are reviewing a ‘pivot’ in recent American history. It was the moment when the military/industrial/spook/Congressional complex – the most powerful industry in the world – took control of US politics...and the empire took on a life of its own.
Specifically, we are recalling the history of the 1960s – aided by the recollections and research of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. – and our own personal history. Bob Dylan, the Doors, Aretha Franklin…marijuana…the Rolling stones…bell bottoms – and the hope of a better world – it is all coming back into focus. We were not born cynical, dear reader; it took many fads, rascals, bear markets and political campaigns to make us what we are today.
One clear memory…It was a summer evening in 1967. We had gone with a friend to the banks of the Chesapeake. Percy Sledge’s great hit – ‘When a man loves a woman’ – was on the radio. We were back from college, regaling each other with our adventures. But Tommy had dropped out. He set his sights on a different life – simpler, more local. He had read Faulkner and Hemingway. His goal was success at home…not abroad. It was success as a person he wanted, not as captain of industry nor of infantry. “Aren’t you worried about getting drafted?” “No…I’m going to sign up. Get it over with.” “Aren’t you worried about getting killed? And what’s the point, anyway? The war seems like a waste.” “Yeah…but otherwise, I’ll have to listen to my mother complaining about me dropping out of college.” That was the last time we saw Tommy. Life is full of casualties. Some are more tragic and pointless than others. Tommy was one of them.
America the Great? What the Kennedys seemed to be aiming for was a government that practiced restraint and reduced the casualties. A good nation does not tax too heavily, does not spend too much, treats people with respect (even those with whom it doesn’t agree) and only fights when it has to. But after Kennedy was assassinated, the US took a different course. Lyndon Johnson promised action…activism…empire. Bombs and bamboozles. Attila was great. Alexander was great. Caesar was great. Napoleon was great. Why not Lyndon? Why not Ronald…Donald…or Joe?
“The People” took the cue. The masses always come to think what they must think when they must think it. Americans were no different. Flattered by the best military money could buy, they came to believe that they were an exceptional race. Madeleine Albright, then Secretary of State, must have reached some apotheosis of conceit when she proclaimed that “if we use force, it is because we are America. We stand tall….we see further into the future.”
We have argued that there are patterns to markets (the Primary Trend)…and patterns to history. A normal man is held in check by his friends, his wife, and his children. When he makes a jackass of himself, they are quick to let him know. So too is a humble nation held in check by its neighbors, its resources and its own people. It may be good or bad. But sometimes – with the wind at its back – the lust for greatness takes over. A nation seeks not just to get along, but to dominate…and control; it becomes an empire. But the Kennedys stood in the way.
Concrete Boots: First, Robert Kennedy took on the mobsters. Appointed Attorney General by his brother, RFK had a ‘Manichean approach’ to law enforcement. There were good guys and bad guys. He wanted to put the bad ones in jail.
At the time, the mafia was gaining power…and corrupting the US justice system (suborning witnesses, bribing judges). He aimed to put them out of business. In Senate hearings, he brought in Anthony “Tony Ducks” Corallo; Joe “Little Caesar” DiVarco; Carlos “The Little Man” Marcello…and dozens of other colorful mobsters. In his first three years as Attorney General, RFK filed 673 indictments against organized crime figures.
The mafiosos didn’t forget. And didn’t forgive. What’s more, they felt betrayed. They believed that the Kennedys would protect them, not prosecute them. There are several competing stories to explain it. One tells us that Joe Kennedy had made a deal with the mob; if they helped deliver the votes in Chicago he would tell his sons to lay off them. Another story is that the Kennedy boys were connected to the mob on their own. Their sister, Pat, was married to Peter Lawford, one the famous “Rat Pack,” along with Frank Sinatra and Dean Martin. Sinatra installed a heliport at his residence in Palm Springs so the president could come to visit. Jack Kennedy may even have shared a mistress – Judith Campbell Exner – with Sinatra’s mafia pal, Sam Giancana.
Whatever the origins of the story, the mob felt betrayed when Bobby Kennedy went after them with a vigor they had never seen before. “Livarsi na petra di la scarpa,” said Carlos Marcello in 1962. The old Sicilian curse has an English variant, said to have been invoked by Henry II: “Will no one rid me of that turbulent priest?” In another documented exchange, mobster Santo Trafficante assured Cuban exile leader Jose Aleman that he needn’t worry about President Kennedy: “No, Jose, he is going to be hit.”
An Empire Unchallenged: Another group that didn’t like the Kennedys was the aforementioned War Industry. Their business, too, was being severely hampered by the Kennedys’ desire to give peace a chance…and their general distrust of both the military and the spies. By this time, the CIA and the mobsters were working together. Their target was supposed to be Fidel Castro. The mafia had its connections in Cuba. The CIA’s mission was to assassinate Fidel, at which, it failed.
The assassination of JFK, however…like the murder of Thomas Becket, Archbishop of Canterbury in 1170, was a shocking success. Who did it? Did the CIA aim for Castro and hit Kennedy? Did the mafia settle its score with the Kennedy family? Or was it a ‘lone gunman,’ as the Warren Commission concluded? We don’t know. But since then, no president has ever seriously challenged the empire’s agenda. "
Gregory Mannarino, "Three Major Banks In Trouble, More To Follow, Count On It"
Gregory Mannarino, PM 11/21/23
"Three Major Banks In Trouble,
More To Follow, Count On It"
Comments here:
"Türkiye Will Destroy Israel With Nuclear Weapons If They Don't Cease Fire in Gaza"
Full screen recommended.
Douglas Macgregor, 11/21/23
"Türkiye Will Destroy Israel With Nuclear Weapons
If They Don't Cease Fire in Gaza"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Scott Ritter, 11/21/23
"Israel Is The Terrorist, They Murder Children,
Bomb Hospitals, They Must Be Prosecuted"
Comments here:
"Middle East Wars and Oil Shocks"
"Middle East Wars and Oil Shocks"
by Nick Giambruno
"On October 7, Hamas, an armed Palestinian militant organization that controls the Gaza Strip, launched Operation Al-Aqsa Flood. It was the most significant attack against Israel since the 1973 Yom Kippur War, which started almost 50 years ago to the day. Now, Israel has formally declared war for the first time since 1973. The Middle East is on the precipice of a regional war that could eclipse the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Many people don’t appreciate how close we are to a catastrophe of historic proportions that will touch everyone.
Remember, American support for Israel during the 1973 Yom Kippur War was the catalyst for the OPEC embargo, which caused the first oil shock. The oil price roughly quadrupled, from around $3 per barrel to about $12 in a matter of days. It immediately triggered an energy crisis. There were gas shortages and panic in the US as drivers sat in lines stretching for blocks, waiting to fill their gas tanks.
The second oil shock followed in 1979 as crude prices nearly tripled. A large conflict in the Middle East was again the cause - the Iranian Revolution and the subsequent Iran-Iraq War. A third oil shock occurred in 1990 as Iraq invaded Kuwait, causing oil prices to more than double.
Here’s the bottom line. Big Middle East wars are often catastrophic for global oil supplies. And supply disruptions cause price spikes. It’s a simple relationship. This isn’t surprising. Analysts estimate that over 40% of global oil exports come from the Middle East.
Today, the Middle East is again on the cusp of a large regional war between Iran and its allies and Israel and its allies. The conflict could potentially be more destructive than the conflicts that caused the prior oil shocks.
Iran’s allies consist of Hamas and several other armed Palestinian groups, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Syria, an assortment of Iraqi militias, and the Houthis, who control most of Yemen.
Israel, the US, most European countries, and their regional Arab allies of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain are on the other side. However, widespread anger against Israel is forcing Washington’s Arab allies into a more neutral stance. That means it will be the US and Israel who will likely be doing the actual fighting against Iran and its allies should the situation escalate, which is likely in my view. Here’s how that could happen…
Hamas’ October 7th attack could be the spark that lights the region on fire. It has led to an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza with gruesome house-to-house urban warfare. Hezbollah in Lebanon is orders of magnitude more powerful than Hamas. It has made no secret that it intends to open a second front for Israel in the north if Israel appears to be successful with a ground invasion of Gaza.
The US has signaled that it could get involved if Hezbollah does. The war spreading to Lebanon would likely bring neighboring Syria, which is allied with Hezbollah, into the conflict. Israel has already bombed the international airports in Damascus and Aleppo in Syria several times. Iraqi militias, pro-Iranian forces in Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen have already launched attacks against US bases and other targets, signaling their readiness to enter the conflict.
And, of course, there is Iran itself, which has said it won’t be a passive observer and often threatens to attack Israel directly. Israel has also threatened to attack Iran directly. However, there is only a limited amount of damage Israel can do to Iran - short of using its nuclear weapons. That’s because there is a distance of more than 1,000 kilometers between them. The best Israel could do is a couple of limited airstrikes, which would spur Iran to retaliate on Israeli territory with its precision ballistic missiles. This means the US military would have to do the heavy lifting in a war against Iran. The US has made clear that it will join the war if Iran does.
War with Iran means the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy corridor, comes into play. Further, Russia and China are standing behind Iran with overt and covert military and economic support. In short, there is a good chance the situation will escalate into a full-blown regional war because neither side appears willing to back down, which means escalation is likely. The underlying geopolitical dynamics will keep the region unstable even if the current conflict does not lead to a regional war.
Tensions have been building for a long time in the Middle East as the geopolitical momentum has turned in favor of Iran and its allies in recent years. The US and Israel find an empowered Iran intolerable and have been eager to find a way to knock Tehran and its allies down. They could now have their chance. The Israelis have not been shy about their intentions to go after Iran, which they regard as the source of many of their problems. Sooner or later, I expect them to act.
Here’s the bottom line as I see it. The previous status quo in the Middle East is not tenable. Either the US and Israel knock Iran down - which would require winning an uncertain regional war - or they cede the Middle East to Tehran and its allies. Either outcome would be a geopolitical disaster for the US. Ceding the Middle East to Iran means giving up on the petrodollar system, which serves as the bedrock for the US financial system, and putting the existence of Israel into doubt. Accepting that outcome is politically impossible for any US politician.
However, as the Millennium Challenge 2002 war game showed, going to war with Iran could mean the US military suffers a crippling defeat. My guess is that the US military will try to avoid war with Iran for as long as possible but will eventually be forced to take action in a last-ditch effort to save Israel and the petrodollar system. Even then, there is a good chance they will lose it all anyway.
The implications of all of this are immense and historical. They won’t be confined to the Middle East. In short, we are only one escalation away from potentially the biggest oil shock in history. Unfortunately, most people have no idea how close we are to a catastrophe of historical proportions..."
Bill Bonner, "Far Wrong on Politics"
Argentina’s president elect, libertarian economist, Javier Milei
"Far Wrong on Politics"
The mainstream press peddles misinformation about Argentina's election...
by Bill Bonner
"I don't know what's right or left,
I'm too drunk to even stand.
Why the devil won't you help me,
Please take your foot off of my hand..."
~ "Pinkard and Bowden," as sung by Willie Nelson
Paris, France - 'The US mainstream press has totally misunderstood Argentina’s new president, Javier Milei. Intentionally, we presume. We pay attention to Argentina. Partly because we have an office in Buenos Aires and investments in Salta Province…and partly because we learn from it. When it comes to politics and finance, there is no goofy, absurd and counter-productive trick the Argentines haven’t tried at least once.
We study their trip of the last 120 years – from king of the road…and then, down into the gutter. And now we get to watch as they try to tow themselves back on the highway. (We even played a small part in Milei’s election. The New York Times says an endorsement from former president Macri helped put Milei over the top. Our office down there put Milei and Macri together.)
Crushing the Establishment: But look at the press coverage. Here’s The Washington Post: "Argentina set for sharp right turn as Trump-like radical wins presidency."
"BUENOS AIRES — A radical libertarian and admirer of Donald Trump rode a wave of voter rage to win Argentina’s presidency on Sunday, crushing the political establishment and bringing the sharpest turn to the right in four decades of democracy in the country."
Turn to the right? Does this reporter know his left from his right? A Buenos Aires voter explained it to him: “I have three jobs, and it’s never enough,” he said, holding his six-month-old daughter after voting in a working-class neighborhood of Buenos Aires. “We’ve already seen what Peronism has done. We need a change.”
And here’s a Reuters report with more misinformation: "Argentine far-right libertarian Milei sweeps to victory." Far right? Think again! The New York Times, meanwhile, wanted to make it even clearer what we were dealing with on the pampas. It called Milei a “mini-Trump.’ "Everyone in the mainstream seems to think Milei is a right-winger…like Trump, Desantis, or Haley. Even Trump himself seems to believe it, sending his well-wishes to Mr. Milei following the victory announcement."
It falls to us to fact check. And what we find is that the only thing Milei and Trump have in common is their enemies. The New York Times…The Washington Post…the Establishment…the press…academia…the politicians and bureaucrats – none welcomes a fake reformer…and certainly not a real one. The earnest professors…weapons suppliers…columnists and up-and-coming reporters…newly elected members of Congress….Wall Street honchos – all have a keen interest in ‘what is.’ They are the ones who shape public policies. They are the chief…and maybe the only…beneficiaries of them.
‘What isn’t’ – a world in which the chips fall where they may…not necessarily where the elite want them…that is, a world with less government – is unwelcome. In the world that is, they see government as the source of wealth and power. The only question is, where does it go? To the left, poorly represented by Mr. Biden? Or to the right, poorly represented by Mr. Trump?
Vermin Politicians: On the ‘left,’ Mr. Biden promises more of the same – more rules, more regulations, more deficits and more debt. He will continue spending on favored projects…boosting asset prices…generous pay-offs for lobbyists and insiders…and more profits for cherished industries – notably poverty-fighting, microchips and the military. If any of these things are threatened…say, by a ‘debt ceiling’ or a recession, the Biden Team will do whatever is necessary to get the pumps working as soon as possible.
Mr. Trump, on the ‘right,’ is another matter. Generally despised and distrusted by the Great and the Good, he is the perfect foil for the elite left – a fake and incompetent reformer. Both Biden and Trump believe that “the People’ can’t be allowed to err and stray like lost sheep. They need direction; they will give it to them – at the barrel of a gun, if necessary. And they will use the gun to eliminate the ‘vermin’ that don’t agree with them.
But that is what makes Mr. Milei different. He is neither right nor left. For him, the vermin are those in the ‘political caste.’ He aims to clear them out - the profiteers, hangers-on, lobbyists, consultants, think tank ‘experts,’ parasites, bureaucrats, and other freeloaders – and let ‘the People’ decide for themselves what to do with their own money. Will he succeed? Not likely, but we will keep our eyes open."
Dan, I Allegedly, "I Had $120,000 Vanish From My Bank Account"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, AM 11/21/23
"I Had $120,000 Vanish From My Bank Account"
"Margaret Lomax sold her home and had her life savings at farmers and merchants bank. She transferred it to city bank and $120,000 disappeared. Plus, the Tustin Marine Base continues to burn with toxic chemicals spewing in the air."
Comments here:
Jim Quinn, "Defying Authority"
"Defying Authority"
by Jim Quinn
"Stanley Milgram’s experiment was conducted in 1963, before the internet, social media, and the complete takeover of the U.S. by the Deep State. His estimate that only 20% of the population have the critical thinking skills to defy authority may have been true in 1963, but I think it is far lower today. The powers that be (invisible government per Edward Bernays) utilize every tool at their disposal to make sure their authority is not defied. They have perfected Bernays’ propaganda techniques, integrating lies, misinformation and fear into their formula of control.
Witness everything that has happened in the last several years as proof they have been successful in suppressing any substantive defiance to their authority. The entire Covid scamdemic was a modern day Milgram Experiment and the vast majority of the world population were duped into believing the annual flu was such a horrific threat that they agreed to be locked down, lose their jobs, treat others like lepers, mask & distance, give their government unlimited authoritarian power, agree to censor and cancel critical thinking dissenters, and ultimately be injected with an untested, toxic, gene therapy that failed to combat covid, but certainly has caused millions of “sudden deaths”, turbo cancers, and myocarditis in young people.
Those who questioned the clearly stolen 2020 presidential election have been systematically destroyed by those in authority. Make a critical thinking case about rigged voting machines, fraudulent mail in ballots, or ballot stuffing, and you lose your livelihood, like being shocked in a Milgram Experiment. The authorities declared January 6, 2020 an armed insurrection, but no Trump supporters were armed or killed anyone. An armed black government thug killed an unarmed woman, but he was declared a hero by the authorities that engineered the fake insurrection.
The J6 tapes just released are another example of authority destroying the lives of peaceful protestors because they dared question the 2020 election results. Many innocent victims of Pelosi, the FBI and the rest of the traitorous Deep State scum who stole the election are rotting in DC dungeons as their punishment for thinking critically and exercising their First Amendment rights. It was a setup from the beginning, but the sheep obediently believe what the authorities spout.
Stanley Milgram would be astounded at how far his research has been used as an owner’s manual, rather than a dire warning to resist authority. For those of us still capable of critical thought, never bow to authority. We are the last bastion against the tyranny engulfing this world."
o
Full screen recommended.
"Milgram's Obedience Experiment"
o
Hat tip to Jim Quinn and
The Burning Platform for this material.
"World War III Prelude: Middle East Crisis 11/21/23"
Full screen recommended.
Scott Ritter, AM 11/21/23
"If Hezbollah Jumps Into Gaza w Both Feet,
Israel Could Literally Face Strategic Defeat"
Hezbollah and Iran will destroy all of Israel.
Comments here:
Col. Douglas Macgregor has stated that Hezbollah alone has 150,000 missiles,
while Iran has over 3,000 ballistic missiles capable of striking anywhere in Israel.
o
Full screen recommended.
Hindustan Times, AM 11/21/23
"Hezbollah's Deadly Missile & Mortar Strikes On
Israel's North; Five Killed As IDF Strikes Lebanon"
"The border skirmish continues to escalate between Israel-Lebanon as Israeli forces step up attacks on Hezbollah. The Israeli forces claimed to have hit 3 Hezbollah anti-tank missile squads in Lebanon. The IDF said Lebanon launched anti-tank missiles towards Israel's northern city of Metula. Lebanon said that Israeli strikes killed four people, including two journalists. The IDF action was in response to deadly Hezbollah missile & mortar attacks on Israel's north. One Israeli woman was reported dead in Hezbollah attacks yesterday in northern Israel."
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
OpenmindedThinker Show, 11/21/23
"Al-Qassam Brigade Stages Biggest
Street-To-Street Resistance in Gaza!"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Democracy Now! AM 11/21/23
'A Grim Milestone: Journalist Death Toll Tops 53
as Israel Kills More Reporters in Gaza and Lebanon"
"The Committee to Protect Journalists reports that at least 50 journalists and media workers have been killed in Israel's ongoing assault on Gaza. Forty-five of the slain journalists have been Palestinian. Others have been arrested or injured. According to CPJ, this has been the deadliest period for journalists covering conflict since the media group began tracking deaths over 30 years ago. Meanwhile, journalists in Israel and the West Bank have been confronted with cyberattacks, physical assault and other forms of censorship for allegedly "harming national morale and harming national security" while reporting on Israel. It's a "news blackout," says CPJ's program coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Sherif Mansour, under which the Israeli government is blocking "essential media coverage" and withholding "lifesaving information" from Gaza in order to win its Western propaganda war."
Comments here:
"Car Market Collapse Will Trigger The Biggest Shift In Prices As Companies Brace For Chaos Ahead"
Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 11/21/23
"Car Market Collapse Will Trigger The Biggest Shift
In Prices As Companies Brace For Chaos Ahead"
"We have good news if you’re in the market for a new or used car: The U.S. auto market is finally facing the shift everyone was waiting for – prices are reporting significant month-over-month declines, and a set of factors, including a higher-than-expected rise in supply, will lead to even steeper price cuts in the final weeks of 2023.
After over a year of continued gains, new data shows that the vehicle sector has entered a bear market. In the second and third quarters, the market shifted into lower gear, and now analysts predict that an oversupply of vehicles will lead to an end-of-year price war that will finally bring affordability back to somewhat ‘normal’ levels.
But experts with Cox Automotive – the owner of the closely followed Manheim Vehicle Value Price Index – say there’s a light at the end of the tunnel as wholesale prices continue to drop in November. Just in the first 15 days of the month, dealers paid almost 2.3% less for vehicles at auction in the U.S. And now, wholesale prices are down by 5.3% amid falling demand and surging inventories.
This means a downward spiral is already in motion. Wholesale price drops usually become retail price drops after about six to eight weeks. And retail prices are already dropping. On Friday, the Manheim Index for used vehicles fell to 206.1, meaning that it officially entered a bear market with a 20% decline. Meanwhile, new car prices have been getting better for months. The Index also shows that pickups are selling for about 4.2% less at auction right now, and SUVs for 4.8% less. Compact cars are down 10.7%, and midsize cars about 8%. Broadly, the difference in average price between new and used is back to where it was in 2019.
While that’s great for would-be buyers who have been waiting for some relief for almost two years, it is also a sign that manufacturers are already experiencing financial losses. UBS estimates that car production will exceed sales by 6% this year, resulting in an excess of 5 million cars that will require sizable price cuts to be sold before the end of the year. Some of these price cuts have already happened, with electric vehicle makers Lucid and Tesla slashing the prices of popular models by nearly $20,000.
Manufacturers and dealerships are in panic mode ahead of the holiday season. They are motivated to clear out their inventory by year-end, and that can trigger a rush to the bottom that may result in an ugly downturn for the industry. They need to make room for the incoming 2024 models, and every day a 2023 model sits on the lot, it eats into their profits. The longer a car remains unsold, the more it costs in terms of dealership floor planning expenses.
Companies are giving 2023’s year-end sales everything they’ve got. Those who have been waiting for low APR financing, shouldn’t miss this chance because this opportunity could be gone by January. There are only about six weeks left before the end of the year, and the final quarter always carries extra weight for car makers and dealerships. Meeting sales goals is now a top priority, both for business success and employee bonuses. Consequently, there’s added pressure to sell every vehicle possible in December.
Expect to see the sharp declines experts have been warning about throughout the whole year. Prices are likely to drop more abruptly than anticipated as companies try to boost their financial results to mask their losses, and divert the attention from the crisis that is unfolding in the sector with some short-term gains."
Comments here:
Adventures With Danno, "Massive 'Holiday Sales' At Meijer!"
Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 11/21/23
"Massive 'Holiday Sales' At Meijer!"
"In today's vlog, we are at Meijer and are going over the different holiday deals on groceries. We also find a massive amount of food items that have gone up in price!"
Comments here:
"BRICS Emergency Meeting; Israeli Base Wiped Out; Ukraine Collapsing; NATO Preps For War With Russia"
Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 11/20/23
"BRICS Emergency Meeting; Israeli Base Wiped Out;
Ukraine Collapsing; NATO Preps For War With Russia"
Comments here:
Monday, November 20, 2023
"11 Signs That U.S. Consumers Are In Very Serious Trouble As We Head Into The Final Stretch Of 2023"
"11 Signs That U.S. Consumers Are In Very Serious
Trouble As We Head Into The Final Stretch Of 2023"
By Michael Snyder
"U.S. consumers are getting weaker and weaker and weaker. Today, debt levels have risen to unprecedented heights, but thanks to roaring inflation our standard of living has been steadily going down. Most Americans are working extremely hard, but they have very little to show for it. And now the latest economic downturn is really starting to bite. Layoffs are starting to surge again, once thriving businesses are shutting down all over the nation, and hunger and homelessness are exploding. If economic conditions continue to deteriorate at this pace, what will things look like a year from now?
For decades, we have been able to count on U.S. consumers to just keep spending money no matter what the economic outlook was, but now things have changed. The following are 11 signs that U.S. consumers are in very serious trouble as we head into the final stretch of 2023…
#1 U.S. renters are spending 30 percent of their incomes just on rent…"Renters remained burdened in the U.S. during the third quarter of 2023 despite a slight improvement as insurance costs to landlords mounted, according to a new report by Moody’s Analytics.
Moody’s Analytics found that in Q3, the U.S. rent-to-income ratio (RTI) declined slightly by 0.5% and ended at 30%, a level that is the threshold for being rent-burdened. Renters are considered “burdened” if their rent payments consume 30% or more of their gross, or pre-tax, income. This comes after last year marked the first time that the median renter household in the U.S. paid over 30% of their income on an average-priced apartment when the national RTI reached a high of 30.8%."
#2 One food bank executive just told USA Today that she is seeing “the worst rate of hunger in my career” right now… “This is the worst rate of hunger in my career,” said Morgan, who has worked at food banks in Boston, San Francisco and Anchorage, Alaska. “It’s so large, it’s hard to wrap your head around.”
#3 Wells Fargo just shut down 13 bank branches in a single week…"Six banks filed to close almost 40 branches last week leaving millions of Americans without access to vital financial services, with Wells Fargo alone axing 13 locations. Wells Fargo has been a leader in the closure of branches around the country, having closed 160 in the first half of the year, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence."
#4 Average hourly earnings for all employees have fallen by 3.32 percent since Joe Biden entered the White House…"Millions of Americans have received a pay cut over the past two years thanks to high inflation, a blow to President Biden as he attempts to center his re-election campaign around “Bidenomics.” The Labor Department reported Tuesday that average hourly earnings for all employees was $11.05 in October — a 3.32% decline from the $11.43 figure in January 2021, when Biden took office."
#5 Due to a lack of consumer demand, three different major Burger King franchisees have recently declared bankruptcy…"Premier Kings, a 172-unit Burger King franchisee whose owner died in 2022, declared bankruptcy protection, saying that operating losses even after the company closed restaurants forced the issue. It’s the third time this year that a major Burger King operator has taken such a step, while several others closed restaurants around the country in the aftermath of the chain’s sales and profit challenges."
#6 Vice Media has announced that it will be laying off dozens of staffers…"Vice Media, the one-time digital media darling that has seen its value and influence greatly diminish in recent years, moved on Thursday to further hollow out its once prestigious news division, shutting down several shows and laying off dozens of staffers"
#7 According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, almost 20,000 media jobs have already been eliminated this year…"Nearly 20,000 jobs have been eliminated across the media industry this year as of October, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas."
#8 Amazon is laying off hundreds of workers in its Alexa division…"Amazon on Friday said that it is cutting “several hundred” jobs within its Alexa division. The layoffs come as the e-commerce giant is “shifting some of our efforts to better align with our business priorities, and what we know matters most to customers - which includes maximizing our resources and efforts focused on generative AI,” an Amazon spokesperson confirmed to FOX Business."
#9 Just in time for the holidays, Citigroup has decided to conduct large scale layoffs… "Citigroup will soon begin layoffs in CEO Jane Fraser’s corporate overhaul, CNBC has learned. Employees affected by the cuts will be informed starting Wednesday, with new dismissals announced daily through early next week, according to people with knowledge of the situation. Those impacted will include chiefs of staff, managing directors and some lower-level employees, said the people. The cuts will spread to more rank-and-file staff by February, they added.
#10 As consumer wealth has dried up, federal tax receipts have been falling on a quarterly basis since the third quarter of 2022…"Rather, federal spending is rising even as federal revenues have fallen, year over year, for ten of the last twelve months. Moreover, on a quarterly basis, federal receipts have been falling—quarter-to-quarter—since the third quarter of 2022."
#11 80 percent of U.S. households are actually poorer than they were when the COVID pandemic originally hit this country…"As of June, the bottom 80% of households by income, when adjusted for inflation, had lower bank deposits and other liquid assets compared to their status in March 2020. The decline marks a significant shift from the initial phases of the pandemic, where various factors, including government financial support and restricted spending opportunities during lockdowns, led to an accumulation of excess savings."
Most Americans have been getting poorer, but the cost of living just keeps getting even more oppressive. As a result, the middle class is literally being hollowed out. The absolutely massive gap between the ultra-wealthy and everyone else has become an extremely pressing issue in this country, and it is going to lead to enormous civil unrest during the chaotic years that are ahead of us. Our leaders were able to keep the economy propped up for a long time by injecting trillions of fresh dollars into the system. But now the “endgame” has arrived, and it is going to be incredibly painful."
"106.4 Million U.S. Adults Do Not Have A Job Right Now"
"106.4 Million U.S. Adults Do Not Have A Job Right Now"
by Michael Snyder
"19 months in a row! The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has now fallen for 19 months in a row. When something happens for 19 consecutive months, that is definitely a trend. The economy is clearly in big trouble, and conditions are getting worse with each passing day. But the mainstream media continues to insist that the economy is doing just great. They tell us that inflation is low, but if it was still measured the way that it was back in 1980, the official rate of inflation would be well into double digit territory. And they tell us that the unemployment rate is low, but if honest numbers were being used the official rate of unemployment would be about 25 percent right now. There are highly qualified people that can’t even get an interview even though they are sending out hundreds and hundreds of resumes. What are they doing wrong? Of course the truth is that they aren’t doing anything wrong. The employment market is far tighter than we are being led to believe, and that isn’t going to change any time soon.
When a working age American is not working, the government puts that individual into one of two categories. Right now, there are only 6.5 million U.S. adults that are officially considered to be “unemployed”. But another 99.9 million U.S. adults are considered to be “not in the labor force”. So they don’t count as being “unemployed”. When you add those two numbers together, you get a grand total of 106.4 million U.S. adults that do not have a job right now.
At no point during the economic crisis of 2008 and 2009 did that number even reach 90 million. So don’t let anyone convince you that unemployment is low. The elite are trying to do their best to convince us that everything is just fine, but meanwhile the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has now fallen for 19 months in a row…"A key measure of the direction of the U.S. economy fell for the 19th straight month and once again indicated that a recession is looming. The leading economic index fell 0.8 percent in October, the Conference Board said Monday. The LEI is based on 10 indicators that tend to forecast the direction of the economy."
Economists had expected a milder decline of 0.8 percent. The last time the index declined for 19 months in a row was during the Great Recession when it fell from the end of 2007 through 2009. The last streak of this magnitude started in 2007. But we didn’t have a recession in 2007. And things still seemed relatively fine in early 2008 too. Of course then we got to the end of 2008 and everything fell to pieces.
That is why they are called “leading” economic indicators. They tell us what is coming. And what is coming in our time is not going to be fun.
Needless to say, most of the population is not prepared at all for a major economic storm. Survey after survey has shown that most of the U.S. population is currently living paycheck to paycheck…"The majority of U.S. adults are living paycheck to paycheck heading into this holiday season, a report shows. LendingClub’s latest report shows that as of October, 60 percent of adults said they are living paycheck to paycheck. Around 40 percent of consumers consider themselves to be worse off now than in 2022.
Even higher earners are struggling to get by, with 42 percent of those making six figures also living check-to-check under President Joe Biden. According to a separate CNBC survey, the number of adults struggling to save between checks is up from 58 percent in March."
As long as those paychecks keep coming in, they can keep scraping by from month to month. But now layoffs are starting to surge again all over the nation. Young Americans are in particularly dire straits. Millions upon millions of young Americans have low paying jobs and are deeply struggling with student loan debt, and this is one of the reasons why the average age of a U.S. homebuyer just keeps going higher and higher…"The average American homebuyer is now 49-years-old – 18 years older than in 1981 – as inflation, college costs and house prices make it harder for young people to get a foot on the ladder. Research by the National Association of Realtors has revealed that the median age of all homebuyers has steadily crept up over the past forty years. The most shocking contrast is for first time buyers where the median age is now 35, up from 31 in 2013 and 29 in 1981."
The American Dream is now out of reach for most of the nation, and that is especially true among those that are under the age of 40. But the mainstream media absolutely refuses to acknowledge the truth. They just keep telling us that things look great for the U.S. economy in 2024 and beyond. The following comes from a Yahoo Finance article entitled “The election year economy looks good for Biden”…"The much-predicted recession still hasn’t arrived. Will it materialize in 2024, at the worst possible moment for President Joe Biden, as he’s trying to convince voters to give him a second term? It’s not looking that way. As economists roll out their forecasts for 2024, the prevailing theme is moderation: slowing but still-positive economic growth, a declining rate of inflation, and continued low unemployment."
Seriously? Come on man. Do they actually expect us to consume that pablum? We are already in an economic crisis right now, and things are going to get so much worse during the years ahead. You can stick your head in the sand and pretend that everything is okay if you want. But nothing is going to change the fact that the “endgame” has arrived. Decades of very foolish decisions have brought us to this stage, and now we are truly going to reap what we have sown."
Musical Interlude: Yanni, "To The One Who Knows"
Full screen recommended.
Yanni, "To The One Who Knows"
"A Look to the Heavens"
"Wisps like this are all that remain visible of a Milky Way star. About 7,000 years ago that star exploded in a supernova leaving the Veil Nebula. At the time, the expanding cloud was likely as bright as a crescent Moon, remaining visible for weeks to people living at the dawn of recorded history. Today, the resulting supernova remnant, also known as the Cygnus Loop, has faded and is now visible only through a small telescope directed toward the constellation of the Swan (Cygnus).
The remaining Veil Nebula is physically huge, however, and even though it lies about 1,400 light-years distant, it covers over five times the size of the full Moon. The featured picture is a Hubble Space Telescope mosaic of six images together covering a span of only about two light years, a small part of the expansive supernova remnant. In images of the complete Veil Nebula, even studious readers might not be able to identify the featured filaments."
“A Prayer for the World”
“A Prayer for the World”
“Let the rain come and wash away the ancient grudges,
the bitter hatreds held and nurtured over generations.
Let the rain wash away the memory of the hurt, the neglect.
Then let the sun come out and fill the sky with rainbows.
Let the warmth of the sun heal us wherever we are broken.
Let it burn away the fog so that we can see each other clearly,
So that we can see beyond labels, beyond accents, gender or skin color.
Let the warmth and brightness of the sun melt our selfishness,
So that we can share the joys and feel the sorrow of our neighbors.
And let the light of the sun be so strong that we will see all
people as our neighbors.
Let the earth, nourished by rain, bring forth flowers to
surround us with beauty.
And let the mountains teach our hearts to reach upward to heaven.”
- Rabbi Harold S. Kushner
"Some Things..."
“But I couldn't respond. My culture had taught me all the wrong things well. So I lay completely still, and gave no reaction at all. But the soul has no culture. The soul has no nations. The soul has no color or accent or way of life. The soul is forever. The soul is one. And when the heart has its moment of truth and sorrow, the soul can't be stilled. I clenched my teeth against the stars. I closed my eyes. I surrendered to sleep. One of the reasons why we crave love, and seek it so desperately, is that love is the only cure for loneliness, and shame, and sorrow. But some feelings sink so deep into the heart that only loneliness can help you find them again. Some truths about yourself are so painful that only shame can help you live with them. And some things are just so sad that only your soul can do the crying for you.”
- Gregory David Roberts, "Shantaram"
"National Fire Sale: The Economic Cycles Of Countries"
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"National Fire Sale:
The Economic Cycles Of Countries"
by Jeff Thomas
"Like waves on the ocean, countries tend to go through economic cycles. First, we have the micro cycles, which tend to rise and fall every few years, but may last a decade or more. Then we have the macro cycles, which tend to take hundreds of years. In a macro cycle, a nation begins to thrive economically, when the people of that country adhere to a strong work ethic. They invest their money and toil into the economy, make a profit, then either save, purchase goods, reinvest, or a combination of the three.
When the great majority of the people do this, the country thrives economically. The greater the economic freedom (i.e., the less governmental oversight and regulation), the more the country thrives. But this never lasts forever. The eternal fly in the ointment is that governments seek continually to increase their control over others.
First, they focus on the increased control of their own people through regulations, but invariably, they see the opportunity for broader control, through the domination of other nations. They then invade those nations.
Warfare is the costliest venture that nations enter into, and as such, it’s almost always a mistake. But the zeal to have greater power often brushes that fact aside, and leaders choose to invade other nations. In almost every instance, they fail to underestimate the resistance from the invaded nation, and very quickly, the cost of the warfare doubles and redoubles, over and over again. Invariably, the leaders then borrow money to keep the war going. Sometimes, they achieve victory in this manner, but more often than not, they fail. They find that the day comes when they must either sell off major assets to pay their debt, or face economic collapse.
Case in point: In 1800, Spain was the dominant empire of the world, having successfully colonized South and Central America and stripped them of a fortune in gold and silver over the course of three centuries – from 1500 to 1800. But despite this, decades of war with other European powers left Spain broke. Charles III did what leaders always do – he borrowed heavily and debased the currency. He issued fiat currency in the form of paper pesos and used this currency to fund the Spanish colony of Louisiana.
This was meant to be a temporary measure, but as time dragged on, the peso steadily lost value, then became utterly worthless. Charles, with no economic wiggle-room left, sent the ship El Cazador to the Louisiana colony to pay off debts. Unfortunately, El Cazador sank in 1784 in a storm, taking 450,000 pesos in silver coins down with her.
When Carlos IV became king of Spain, there were few good options. Rather than give up his throne, he offered to sell Louisiana to France’s Napoleon. Napoleon took advantage of Spain’s national fire sale and bought Louisiana for a song. But as stated above, countries tend to rise and fall in cycles. In 1803, Napoleon found himself in similar straights, as his own warfare/debt condition was also reaching a desperate level. Napoleon offered Louisiana to US President Thomas Jefferson, and like Napoleon, Mister Jefferson was able to pick up the one million square miles of prime real estate for a song – about three cents an acre.
So, to re-cap, the last-straw event that cost Carlos IV his empire was a simple shipwreck. The final event was minor. What really condemned Spain was warfare and debt. The last-straw event that cost Napoleon his empire was the Battle of Waterloo. The final event was not the largest of battles. What really condemned France was warfare and debt.
Mister Jefferson was a far wiser man. Since the founding of the United States, he had continually warned against both warfare and debt. Although he twice dealt with war with Britain, he avoided military adventures – the invasion of other countries. Similarly, he borrowed, but always judiciously and only with the ability for repayment. Under his leadership, the US thrived and the American people reaped the benefits.
But of course, that was many micro cycles ago. The US is now at the end of its macro cycle, which can be evidenced by its involvement in what has become continual warfare. The US now invades several other countries in each presidential cycle, ensuring that, if any war winds down, there are others still steaming ahead. In recent years, the US has invaded Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Kuwait and Somalia and has "assisted", or invaded by proxy, in a host of other invasions. In addition, threats have been issued to North Korea, Turkey, Iran, Venezuela and others that, "Military action is not off the table," as regards future military adventures.
Along the way, warfare’s ugly twin – debt – has joined in. The US, once the world’s foremost creditor nation, is now both the world’s foremost aggressor nation and the world’s foremost debtor nation at the same time. But the US has a problem that neither Spain nor France had in the nineteenth century. It has no colonies to peddle. The US certainly can’t offer up the Louisiana territory to other nations, to pay its unmanageable debt.
In one sense, the American people can rest easy that the US will not be selling off bits of real estate in a fire sale, when the notes come due. But unfortunately, that very fact means that the only other possible outcome – economic collapse – will occur.
At some point in the near future, America Inc. will almost certainly go bust. But as always, the world will not come to an end. The assets and wealth of the world will simply change hands, as they have done since time immemorial. The grand experiment that began in 1776 will come to an end, as all once-great nations do. The US will continue to exist, but as a shadow of its former self, in the manner of the failed empires before it. When we look back, we may find that the final event that triggers collapse was in fact minor, but was the perennial 'last straw.'"
"The Tragedy..."
"The tragedy of modern war is that the young men die fighting
each other - instead of their real enemies back home in the capitals."
- Edward Abbey
“Have we raised the threshold of horror so high that nothing short of a nuclear strike qualifies as a ‘real’ war? Are we to spend the rest of our lives in this state of high alert with guns pointed at each other’s heads and fingers trembling on the trigger?”
- Arundhati Roy
"The Missile No Defense System Can See Coming: '400 Seconds To Tel Aviv'"
Full screen recommended.
Dark Tech, 11/20/23
"The Missile No Defense System Can See Coming"
"In mid-2023, an unusual sight greeted the streets of Tehran: billboards with text in Hebrew. The ominous message announced the introduction of Iran's latest missile - Fattah, the "victory giver." In recent years, Iran has conducted five significant missile strikes across its borders, from attacks on ISIS in Syria to US forces, Kurdish militants, and Israeli intelligence in Iraq. But the new missile promises to be something else. While hypersonic missiles like Fattah can travel at extremely high speeds beyond Mach 5, Iran's military alleges that the new missile can reach speeds up to 15 times the speed of sound. Allegedly, the missile can bypass all air defense systems. And with a range of 1,400 kilometers, the Iranians claim Israel is now within its striking range. The billboards had an ominous message in Persian, Arabic, and Hebrew for all to read: "400 seconds to Tel Aviv."
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Full screen recommended.
OpenmindedThinker Show, 11/20/23
"Revenge! Yemeni and Hezbollah Forces Rain Missiles
on Israeli Warships After Seizing Commercial Ship"
Comments here:
According to Scott Ritter, Hezbollah alone has
150,000 missiles capable of striking anywhere in Israel.
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Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 11/20/23
"Col. Douglas Macgregor:
Forecasting Global Security: The Israel Question and WWIII"
"Colonel Douglas Macgregor takes center stage as we delve into the intricacies of global security and its intersection with the Israel question in a dialogue titled "Forecasting Global Security: The Israel Question and WWIII." Drawing on his extensive military expertise, Colonel Macgregor provides unique insights into the potential implications of the Israel question on the broader landscape of international security."
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