Wednesday, November 8, 2023

The Poet: Mary Oliver, “The Journey”

“The Journey”

“One day you finally knew
what you had to do, and began,
though the voices around you
kept shouting
their bad advice -
though the whole house
began to tremble
and you felt the old tug
at your ankles.
“Mend my life!”
each voice cried.
But you didn’t stop.
You knew what you had to do,
though the wind pried
with its stiff fingers
at the very foundations,
though their melancholy
was terrible.

It was already late
enough, and a wild night,
and the road full of fallen
branches and stones.
But little by little,
as you left their voices behind,
the stars began to burn
through the sheets of clouds,
and there was a new voice
which you slowly
recognized as your own,
that kept you company
as you strode deeper and deeper
into the world,
determined to do
the only thing you could do -
determined to save
the only life you could save.”

- Mary Oliver

"A Cherokee Proverb"

"An old Cherokee is teaching his grandson about life. “A fight is going on inside me,” he said to the boy. “It is a terrible fight and it is between two wolves. One is evil – he is anger, envy, sorrow, regret, greed, arrogance, self-pity, guilt, resentment, inferiority, lies, false pride, superiority, and ego.” He continued, “The other is good – he is joy, peace, love, hope, serenity, humility, kindness, benevolence, empathy, generosity, truth, compassion, and faith. The same fight is going on inside you – and inside every other person, too.” The grandson thought about it for a minute and then asked his grandfather, “Which wolf will win?” The old Cherokee simply replied, “The one you feed.”
"A Cherokee Proverb"

"The Bank Outages Nobody Thinks Possible Are Here And People Will Freak Out This Winter"

Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist 11/8/23
"The Bank Outages Nobody Thinks Possible 
Are Here And People Will Freak Out This Winter"

"The biggest banks in the United States are reporting widespread bank outages for a sixth consecutive day. At the same time, another bank just collapsed, marking the fifth bank failure of 2023. Since last Friday, systemwide processing errors have been leaving millions of customers without access to their money. And while companies insist this is just a temporary glitch, Bloomberg reports that several institutions are still under threat, and experts say more failures would be unsurprising at this point.

Americans are outraged with the situation. The outages are keeping many people from paying their bills in time and making them accrue interest debt while they wait for their deposits. Now, six days after the systemwide disruptions began, clients have been reporting not only deposit delays but other distressing issues with transfers, duplicated withdrawals, and more. Some say they haven’t been able to log in to their online accounts for days.

It seems that Bank of America and Wells Fargo clients are being particularly hard hit by the outages. DownDetector reported that the banks’ customers were still experiencing issues with funds transfers, online banking, and retrieving account balances today. "@BankofAmerica Day 4 & still no direct deposit, no update on potential resolution or at the very least what's being done to resolve the issue, no transparency, no assistance, no communication from you all at all. Nothing. Wow. This is so bizarre," one person wrote on X on Monday morning.

Though the situation has just gotten some media attention, the truth is that since mid-October, financial institutions have been silently facing operational issues. On October 20, international bank Barclays reported an outage that hit more than 2.5 million people globally. The institutions’ online banking platform locked customers out of their accounts, and given that the bank only offers online services in many countries, clients pointed out that in-branch banking wasn’t an option, highlighting the importance of having cash holdings on hand.

For smaller banks, rising interest rates have only aggravated their woes. That’s the case with Iowa-based Citizens Bank, the fifth financial institution that collapsed this year. In a news release, regulators with the Iowa Division of Banking said Citizens was declared insolvent earlier this week when bank examiners “identified significant loan losses that had not previously been identified by the bank. The failure was triggered by bankruptcies in the trucking sector amid a nationwide freight recession.

Higher interest rates are also endangering banks that have higher exposure to consumer debt, mortgage, and commercial real estate loans. At the moment, thousands of office blocks purchased with debt remain half-empty as remote work becomes more popular. These buildings will have to be torn down. In other words, their value is about to sharply drop, leaving hundreds of regional banks sitting on crippling losses.

With businesses facing tighter credit conditions, it’s only a matter of time before mass bankruptcies start to occur. That will create a self-fulfilling prophecy as borrowers default on their loans, causing struggling banks to take on huge losses and also go under. We’re definitely in the middle of a banking crisis that will be unlike anything we have ever seen before, and we should strategize now because things are starting to look very ugly."
Comments here:

Dan, I Allegedly, "A Bank Committed A Big Crime'

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, PM 11/8/23
"A Bank Committed A Big Crime'
"The hits just don’t stop coming. First, the insurance companies are leaving different states in droves. Now we find out that Citibank has committed a major crime. Were you a victim?"
Comments here:

“Of Time, Turnings, Stars & Wars”

“Of Time, Turnings, Stars & Wars”
by Doug "Uncola" Lynn

"Like nature, history is full of processes that cannot happen in reverse. Just as the laws of entropy do not allow a bird to fly backward, or droplets to regroup at the top of a waterfall, history has no rewind button. Like the seasons of nature, it moves only forward."
- Strauss and Howe: “The Fourth Turning”

"Contemplating the concept of time can be quite confounding, to say the least. In the extreme, considering the paradoxical nature of time’s passage will stretch the mind causing thoughts to invert like taffy in a rolling machine or light yielding to the gravity of an Event Horizon before the edge of a Black Hole in deep space.

Knowing Einstein was right means time stops at the speed of light. Surely then, waves of thought must generate their own specific gravity to capture both light and sound, together. Our eyes and ears record each moment and translate events into high definition digital memories which we can recall upon demand and view as celluloid film stock in a dark room.

However, in this dimension, there is another aspect at play that comes attached to time. Space: The final frontier. These conflagrate together and then separate at any given moment never to coalesce again in quite the same way. Time can be recalled like a ghost, or a spectral hologram, on the mind’s screen, but the space will have changed and dissipated entropically like dust digested in the amorphous bellies of Stephen King’s Langoliers.

To put it another way, time changes everything. A couple of years ago one of my offspring had a milestone birthday so we went to a morning movie matinee followed by an expensive late lunch at a fine dining venue. It was there where I chewed my food and contemplated the confounding conceptual continuations of space and time.

The movie was the Star Wars flick, "Rogue One" and the state-of-the-art theater featured stadium seating and a massive UltraScreen Deluxe® with Dolby® Atmospheric Surround-sound which, according to the advertisements, offered the “ultimate moviegoing experience”. As I watched the story unfold in REAL D 3D® with my 3D glasses in place while eating my popcorn and nestled comfortably in the red leather DreamLoungerTM recliner, I thought to myself how I really am in the future. In the lobby after the movie, I checked Drudge on my smartphone and learned Carrie Fisher had died in Los Angeles.

This made me remember way back to my past when I was a preteen and first saw the original Star Wars. I watched it with several friends in an ornately vintage, and solitary, theater in my small town. Through the patina of time and the opaque looking glass of my mind’s eye, I remember hoping no one would tell my parents, or my orthodontist, that I was eating popcorn and lemon drops with new braces on my teeth. Although I was an avid reader back then with a keen appreciation for science fiction, I had not seen a film before that captivated me like the first Star Wars. The excellent storyline, superior special effects, and the characters in the film really made an impression on me.

If my current self could go back to that day, I would meet the geeky, metal-mouthed kid after the movie and tell him some things. I would also mention how, in 43 years, he will celebrate his progeny’s birthday who, at that time, will be several years older than he is now and how he will be seeing another Star Wars movie on the very same day that Princess Leia died in real life.

The ironic confluence of time and space, indeed.

I am sure the mini-me at that time would have pegged me as a brain-damaged old fool and, in turn, would have attempted to persuade me into buying him and his friends a six-pack of beer, a fifth of peppermint Schnapps, a Playboy and a can of chew. After all, according to "The Fourth Turning," by Strauss and Howe, the year 1977 was two and a half “Turnings” ago. Back then, the future wasn’t set. Or was it?

“We perceive our civic challenge as some vast, insoluble Rubik’s Cube. Behind each problem lies another problem that must be solved first, and behind that lies yet another, and another, ad infinitum. To fix crime we have to fix the family, but before we do that we have to fix welfare, and that means fixing our budget, and that means fixing our civic spirit, but we can’t do that without fixing moral standards, and that means fixing schools and churches, and that means fixing the inner cities, and that’s impossible unless we fix crime. There’s no fulcrum on which to rest a policy lever. People of all ages sense that something huge will have to sweep across America before the gloom can be lifted – but that’s an awareness we suppress. As a nation, we’re in deep denial.”
- Strauss and Howe, “The Fourth Turning”

Written by the historians William Strauss and Neil Howe, “The Fourth Turning” was published in 1997 and was, at that time, boldly proclaimed by the authors to be an “American Prophecy”. The book is fascinating in that it very thoroughly documents recorded cycles of history across multiple cultures and eras in order to predict the timing of “America’s next rendezvous with destiny”.

Processing almost like a Cliff’s Notes summary, the book identifies the timelines of historical events and matches them to specific life cycles of people in the form of generational archetypes. What is also interesting is how Strauss and Howe quantify and compare the recordings of history of multiple authors throughout the millennia to find uncanny comparisons in both historical and generational cycles.  Ironically, the comparisons stand up not only to the test of time regarding recorded events in history, but the generational turnings and archetypes also translate to ancient literature and other writings as well, ranging from Homer’s Iliad to the Holy Bible.

The concept of time is discussed in the context of both circular and linear perspectives as Strauss and Howe describe what is called the “saeculum”. The saeculum represents a “long human life”, or approximately 80 to 90 years comprising of four turnings each lasting about 20 to 22 years.

Just as there are four seasons consisting of spring, summer, fall and winter, there are also four phases of a human life represented in childhood, young adulthood, middle age and old age, or elderhood. As each phase of human life represents approximately 20 years, so is each generational archetype identified within historical cycles, or turnings, as follows:
Click image for larger size.
The generational archetypes experience the historical turnings according their life stage, or age. Amazingly, history shows a consistent pattern in how the generations both cause and affect historical events.  The patterns develop based upon how each generation interacts with the other and this also has documented consistencies that are delineated by the authors.

At any given “turning” during the saeculum, the set order of the generations on the age ladder is called a “constellation”. For example, during the Fourth Turning Crisis of 1929 through 1945, America experienced a financial crash, a great depression and a world war. During this period, the Prophet generation was entering Elderhood, the Nomad generation were middle-aged and the Hero generation fought WW II as young adults while the Artist generation were children during that time.

When the Crisis (Winter) era of financial hardship and war was over, the Spring of another First Turning began as the Hero generation led America into a season of unparalleled prosperity from 1946 through President John F. Kennedy’s assassination in 1963. It was then the baby boomer, Prophet, generation began. As young adults, the boomers began to rock the nation with new age flower-power, feminism, guitars and free love. Thus began the Awakening that lasted through Ronald Reagan’s first term that ended in 1984. It was then the Third Turning of the Unraveling began.

In 1997, when the Fourth Turning was published, Strauss and Howe used their generational model to predict with remarkable accuracy, the start of the next Crisis in 2005: “By the middle Oh-Ohs, institutions will reach a point of maximum weakness, individualism of maximum strength, and even the simplest public task will feel beyond the ability of government. As niche walls rise ever higher, people will complain endlessly how bad all of the niches are. Wide chasms will separate rich from poor, whites from blacks, immigrants from native borns, seculars from born agains, technophiles from technophobes. America will feel more tribal. Indeed, many will be asking whether fifty states and so many dozens of ethic cultures make sense any more as a nation – and, if they do, whether that nation has a future.”
- Strauss and Howe:  “The Fourth Turning”

In 1997 there was no way to foresee the sequencing of 911, the Patriot Act, Edward Snowden, government incompetence after Hurricane Katrina, the financial crisis of 2007 – 2008, the subsequent TARP bailouts or the election of a mysterious, biracial pied piper to the presidency of the United States.

There is no way anyone could have predicted the ensuing eight years of Obama, the nationalization of healthcare, the orgy of greed hosted by Wall Street at the expense of Main Street, endless wars, unchecked immigration, the TSA, NSA, Homeland Security, the CIA versus the FBI, smart phones, drones, religious discriminations, Occupy Wall Street, the Tea Party, the Alt-right, Black Lives Matter and fake news.

Given the accuracy and timing of Strauss and Howe’s predictions, perhaps there is real validity behind their generational theory after all. And, given this, then we are now within the Winter of a Fourth Turning Crisis.

Can you feel it in the air? High powers in dark places are gathering and sides are being chosen as potential treachery and intrigue lurk around every corner. A global empire stands prepared to battle with populist movements and sovereign nations across the globe while rumors of a neo American civil war abound here at home.

Captured corporate media propaganda outlets and deep state government agencies relentlessly shill for a global empire and stoke the fires of war against a free alternative media while simultaneously provoking a nuclear armed Russia.

Half of the nation’s electorate, on the brink of a financial abyss, would rather kneel before an evil empire than to support the outcome of a free election. Of course, there is no unity in America today. Those days are long gone.

“People young and old will puzzle over what it felt like for their parents and grandparents, in a distantly remembered era, to have lived in a society that felt like one national community. They will yearn to recreate this, to put America back together again. But no one will know how.”
- Strauss and Howe, “The Fourth Turning”

Winter is here.  War is coming. Battles will be waged and conflicts will rage. There will be no escape for what is coming and no guarantee as to any outcome, save one: After this Fourth Turning, there will remain only liberty or tyranny. One, but not the other. For this will be a fight unto the death.

Even so, do many Nomads now entering middle-age, and their Hero generation progeniture, actually understand what is about to befall them? Do they even care? And, for those who do understand and do care; do they know how to fight?

Truly, there are many variables to this historical cycle that were absent in the all of the previous Fourth Turnings throughout history. A few examples would include pervasive and devastating technology with the capabilities of either enslaving, or killing, entire generations of people; a global corporatocracy in control of government agencies, mass flows of information, food and resources; entirely misinformed and apathetic populations with no moral bearing, belief system, or willingness to accept truth in order to stand strong against the dark powers now encroaching; and, finally, there are so many who have been trained to embrace the utopian lie of one world under tyranny. Sadly, many of these may be the new Stormtroopers in waiting.

In the end, we must choose. And not choosing, by default, is a choice. Can a rag tag federation of freedom fighters with truth, liberty and history on their side under a flag of 13 stripes and 50 stars, with idea-fueled keyboards, a compromised internet, and semi-automatic weapons prevail against a galactic empire in control of a technocracy more powerful than any fictional Death Star?

We’re about to find out. Everything that has ever happened before has delivered us to where we are now. Hold on to that. Even more importantly, don’t forget to fasten your seatbelts and place your trays in the upright and locked position.The warp drive is about to be engaged. A new journey has begun."
"May the Force be with you."

"Did You Ever Wonder..."

"Did you ever wonder if the person in the puddle
 is real, and you're just a reflection of him?"
~ Calvin and Hobbes

The Daily "Near You?"

Beaufort, South Carolina, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"The Only Final Sin..."

"In a closed society where everybody’s guilty, the only crime is 
getting caught. In a world of thieves, the only final sin is stupidity."
- Hunter S. Thompson

"Doug Casey on the Imminent Bankruptcy of the US Government"

"Doug Casey on the Imminent 
Bankruptcy of the US Government"
by International Man

"International Man: Everyone knows that the US government has been bankrupt for many years. But we thought it might be instructive to see its current cash-flow situation. The US government’s budget is the biggest in the history of the world and is growing at an uncontrollable rate. Below is a chart of the budget for the most recent fiscal year, which had a deficit of nearly $1.7 trillion.


Before we get into the specific items in the budget, what is your take on the Big Picture for the US budget?

Doug Casey: The biggest expenditure for the US government are so-called entitlements. It’s strange how the word "entitlements" has been legitimized. Are people really entitled to the government paying for their health, retirement, and welfare? In a moral society, the answer is: No. Entitlements destroy personal responsibility, legitimize theft, destroy wealth, and create antagonisms.

The fact is that once people have an "entitlement," they come to rely on it, and you can’t easily take it away. The Chinese call that breaking somebody’s rice bowl. In the case of the American welfare state, it’s more a question of breaking a whipped dog’s doggy bowl. It’s a shame because many have come to rely on their mother, the State, not entirely through their own fault. The US has become pervasively corrupt.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) - a pox upon them - isn’t entirely incorrect when it arrogantly calls most people "useless mouths." An increasing number produce absolutely nothing but only consume at the expense of others. Courtesy of the State.

There’s little doubt in my mind that the government’s expenses are going way up as people demand more. While receipts go down as the Greater Depression deepens. Which it will, as the economy is burdened by evermore taxes, regulations, and currency debasement. That’s on top of the gigantic debt the government and country are buried under.

The government reminds me of a poker player on tilt, betting more and more crazily in hope of magic or luck to bail him out. It always ends badly. We’ve watched this progression accelerate since at least the 1960’s - a slow motion train wreck. But the inevitable has finally turned into the imminent.

International Man: What are your thoughts on Social Security, Health, and Medicare? With an aging population, it seems politically impossible to make any meaningful cuts here. On the contrary, spending in these areas is likely to explode.

Doug Casey: They should be abolished. I’ve said this many times before, but it bears repeating as often as possible because everybody forgets the most basic of the basics. Namely, the government, as an instrument of force, should be limited to protecting people from physical force. And nothing else.

That implies a police system to defend people from force within, a military to defend against foreign aggressors, and a court system to allow people to adjudicate disputes without resorting to force. I’d further argue that those three things are so important to the conduct of a civil society that they shouldn’t be left to the kind of people who inevitably gravitate towards government. But that’s a different subject.

Looking at these three things you mentioned in particular, they’re complete disasters. They’re fiscally unsound, will bankrupt the US government, and, therefore, bankrupt the country itself, especially with an aging population. Social Security seemed like a good idea at the time so that poor people wouldn’t be left totally without an income in old age. But the fact is that Social Security is a classic Ponzi scheme. Its taxes have gone from a trivial percentage to 12.4%. It’s so high that people are on the bottom end of society, who it’s meant to help, are precluded from saving on their own. Social Security is both a practical and moral disaster.

As for Medicare, how is it your problem if another has failed to take care of his body? Your body is your primary possession. Should it also be your problem if somebody fails to take care of his car? Should the State fix all your property? Should the government have anything to do with health? No. It’s strictly a matter of personal responsibility. Of course, if the State believes it owns you, like a milk cow, the cattle can expect food to show up, as will medicine if they get sick.

Government entitlement schemes encourage everyone to try to live at the expense of his neighbors. They’re intrinsically dehumanizing, corrupting, and degrading. They’re a bad deal all around.

International Man: With the most precarious geopolitical situation since World War 2, "National Defense" seems unlikely to be cut. Instead, so-called defense spending is all but certain to increase. What is your take?

Doug Casey: The United States’ "defense" spending exceeds that of the next 10 nations combined, including Russia and China. Most of that spending goes into the maw of five major defense companies. A decade or two ago, there used to be 30 or 40 defense companies. But they’ve now consolidated, the better to deal with Big Government.

They increasingly make only expensive high-tech weapons, which may prove totally useless in today’s environment. For instance, the US is currently suffering an invasion of feet people across the southern border - millions and millions of young males, of alien race, language, religion, and culture, in the last two years alone. We may yet wind up with a civil war in the US, on top of several insane foreign wars.

These high-tech weapons, in the process of bankrupting the US and enriching the defense establishment, will prove largely useless. Meanwhile, military personnel are being gutted. It’s no secret that the services can’t recruit enough people to keep their numbers where they want them. That’s in good measure because ESG and DEI have been insinuated throughout the military like slow-acting poisons. The military is no longer a meritocracy. Now, it’s critical to be the right color and gender. George Patton would quit in disgust.

On top of all that, defense spending is a provocation to other countries. It’s like waving around a giant golden hammer. They’re correctly afraid that everything has started to look like a nail to the US.

International Man: The net interest expense on the national debt was $659 billion in FY 2023, which is sure to rise. The US government needs to roll over a significant portion of its existing debt issued when interest rates were 0% in an environment of much higher and rising rates. What are your thoughts on this item?

Doug Casey: Interest on the debt is the next big thing, in addition to entitlements and out-of-control "defense" spending. They used to say, "Don’t worry about the national debt; we owe it to ourselves," which was always ridiculous because some specific people always owed it to other specific people. But the US can no longer generate adequate capital to fund the government’s debt. And I hasten to point out that the government is not "We the People." The government is a separate entity, with its own interests, as distinct as General Motors.

In the recent past, the national debt has been financed not by Americans, but by foreigners. At this point, however, foreigners no longer want to own the debt of a bankrupt entity whose currency is nothing but a floating abstraction. The government can only finance its debt by selling it to its central bank, the Fed, which creates new dollars to buy the debt.

As the dollar inevitably loses value, interest rates will rise. That’s regardless of what the Fed does or doesn’t want. The market will demand higher interest rates to finance the debt. You don’t want to own bonds.

International Man: US government expenses seem to have nowhere to go but up. Is there any chance the US government can reform and return to a sustainable basis? If not, what are the implications?

Doug Casey: The US government is bankrupt. It’s not just the official $34 trillion. The real number is several times higher, considering contingent liabilities. It’s probably more like $100 trillion. This debt will never be repaid. The US government is like Wiley Coyote after he runs off a cliff. In addition, the average American is deeply in debt—student loans, mortgage debt, credit card debt, auto debt, and much more. The country is in big trouble. Frankly, there’s no practical way out at this point except to officially declare bankruptcy. I realize serious change is impossible since the situation is so out of control. But here are six things to imagine - for a start:

1. Allow the collapse of all bankrupt entities. No bailouts, subsidies, or guarantees for banks, insurers, corporations, or anything. There will be plenty in the coming years. Bailout money is always wasted. Most of the real wealth now owned by the bankrupt entities will still exist. It will simply change ownership. But that’s not nearly enough. At this point, it would be a half-measure, a 3-foot rope over a 12-foot gap. If you allow the collapse of unprofitable enterprises without changing the conditions that created the problem, recovery is going to be even harder. So…

2. Deregulate.
Contrary to what almost everyone thinks, the main purpose of regulation is not to protect consumers but to entrench the current order. Regulation prevents new institutions from arising quickly and cheaply.

Does the Department of Agriculture really need 100,000 employees to regulate fewer than two million farms in the US? Abolish it. Has the Department of Energy, created in 1977 to somehow solve a temporary crisis, done anything of value with its 110,000 employees and contractors and $32 billion annual budget? Abolish it. How about the terminally corrupt Bureau of Indian Affairs, which has outlived whatever usefulness it might have had by 100 years. Abolish it.

The FTC, SEC, FCC, FAA, DOT, HHS, HUD, Labor, Commerce, and many more, serve little or no useful public purpose. Eliminate them, and the entire economy would blossom – except for the parasitical lobbying and legal trades. There are hundreds of agencies like these. Most aren’t just useless. They’re actively destructive.

3. Abolish the Fed. This is the actual engine of inflation. Money is just a medium of exchange and a store of value; you don’t need a central bank to have money. In fact, central banks are always destructive. They benefit only the cronies who get their money first. What would we use as money? It doesn’t matter as long as it’s a commodity that can’t be created out of thin air. Gold is the obvious choice. Bitcoin may turn out to be excellent. The whole idea of a central bank is a swindle. Massive bailouts and optional wars can’t be done without it.

4. Cut taxes by 50%… to start. The economy would boom. The money won’t be needed with all the agencies gone. Certainly not if the next two points are followed.

5. Default on the national debt. I realize this is a shocker unless you recall that the debt will never be paid anyway. Why should the next several generations have to pay for the stupidity of their parents? A default sounds dishonorable - and it is in civil society. But government is different. It hasn’t been "We the People" for a long time; it’s now a self-dealing behemoth run by cronies. It’s like a building with a rotten foundation - better to bring it down with a controlled demolition than wait for it fall unpredictably.

Governments default all the time, though most defaults are subtle, through inflation. In an outright default, however, the only people who get hurt are those who lent money to an institution that can only repay them by stealing money from others. They should be punished.

6. Disentangle and disengage. The entanglements the US needs to escape prominently include the UN and NATO. Spending could easily be cut 50%. The US combat troops now in over 100 foreign countries can come home. They’re not "defending" anything but local collaborators while picking up bad habits and antagonizing the locals. Spending on the military and its sport wars significantly adds to the economy’s problems."

Bill Bonner, "The Big Loss"

"The Big Loss"
Avoiding irreparable damage as the storm clouds gather...
by Bill Bonner

Paris, France - "First up: Bloomberg, with another milestone on the road to ruin: "U.S. Debt Interest Bill Soars Past $1 Trillion a Year." The combination of high levels of debt and higher interest rates has pushed the annualized interest cost of government debt past $1 trillion, an analysis from Bloomberg showed Tuesday. The cost of servicing US debt has doubled in the last 19 months. Interest rates are up. And so is the amount of debt. Together, like a ship caught in polar ice, they crush the hull. US debt is now $33.5 trillion. And there’s a lot more where that came from. Federal deficits of $2 trillion per year are becoming ‘the norm.’ By 2030, they’ll probably be around $3 trillion per year." And that is without any emergency spending!

“The Big Loss”: But rising debt levels and soaring interest payments are bound to set off alarms somewhere – subprime debt? Stocks? Real estate? Which brings us back to yesterday’s question: where is the next Big Loss coming from? The ‘Big Loss’ is the biggest financial danger older people face. It can wipe out a whole career of earning, saving, and investing. And if you’re over 55, you’re not likely to have time to recover.

So, what threatens a big loss now? Remember, it has to come as a big surprise. So, where’s the surprise? Stocks are still expensive…by some measures they are as expensive as they’ve ever been (especially the huge, leading tech stocks). Would it surprise us if they went down? Or even crashed? It shouldn’t. And what about houses? They’re at the top of their range too; shouldn’t they go down? It seems almost inevitable that they will. The average household can no longer afford the average house; something’s gotta give. No surprise there, either.

And what about AI? It’s the latest tech fad that is supposed to make us all rich. Just as the internet brought the whole world’s knowledge to our fingertips, now AI will help sort it out. “Experts” say it will increase productivity so much we’ll be able to pay our debts…finance our sprawling firepower industry…and get every member of Congress re-elected. And the best thing; it’s the perfect new technology for a declining, mentally-enfeebled empire. We don’t have to think about how to ‘Make America Great Again.’ AI will figure it out for us.

The Steepest Decline: But our guess is that AI will prove to be a big flop, just like the internet itself. People will use it routinely. Will it improve productivity? Yes…and reduce it too. Users will waste their time with it…playing games and talking to sex robots. Some tasks will be easier. Others will be made more complicated by AI-enhanced thieves, incompetents and propagandists. Overall, it will make little difference. Will it make some investors rich? Surely. But most of the claims and promises made for AI will prove false…and many people will take losses. Still, the Big Loss will probably come from elsewhere.

What about the bond market? It’s just endured the longest, steepest decline in its history. That alone suggests that the worst is over. Investors expect a bounce. Or even a complete turnaround. And here is where it becomes interesting. Everybody knows, you don’t ‘fight the Fed.’ And everybody knows the Fed has completed its tightening cycle.

Barron’s: "The Fed is done raising rates. The October employment report did it. The Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle is over. After 11 rate increases since March 2022, totaling five percentage points, the Fed ought to be finished raising rates. Inflation is falling and growth is slowing… Friday’s employment report confirmed what a host of other indicators are telling us, namely that the U.S. economy is finally slowing after an 18-month onslaught of Fed rate hikes. Together with falling rates of headline and core inflation, as well as moderating wage pressures, a clearer picture has emerged. The Fed will soon accomplish its goal of reducing U.S. inflation to the 2% core rate that it defines as “price stability.”

Everybody knows, too, that the Fed will soon begin to loosen up. The Fed Funds Futures market tells us that investors expect the Fed to “Pause” until May of next year…and then begin to cut rates. There’s a time to be a lender…and a time to be a borrower. Borrowing was a lay-up for most of this century. Especially in the depths of the Covid Panic. If you’d locked in a 3% mortgage rate then, you might have made the best financial move of your entire life. Your house payments would be fixed at an extremely low interest rate…while both principal and interest payments are reduced, year after year, by inflation.

Even at an inflation rate of only 4%...you’d make a profit on your borrowed money of 1% per year. And your gains are cumulative. After inflation, both the principal and the payments on your mortgage have gone down about 20%. But while the giddy, glory days of borrowing money are over…have the happy days of lending already arrived? Is it time to buy bonds again? Or is that what ‘everybody knows’…that just ain’t so? More to come…"

"There Are A Lot Of People..."

"Thomas Edison said in all seriousness: "There is no expedient to which a man will not resort to avoid the labor of thinking"- if we bother with facts at all, we hunt like bird dogs after the facts that bolster up what we already think- and ignore all the others! We want only the facts that justify our acts- the facts that fit in conveniently with our wishful thinking and justify our preconceived prejudices. As Andre Maurois put it: "Everything that is in agreement with our personal desires seems true. Everything that is not puts us into a rage." Is it any wonder, then, that we find it so hard to get at the answers to our problems? Wouldn't we have the same trouble trying to solve a second-grade arithmetic problem, if we went ahead on the assumption that two plus two equals five? Yet there are a lot of people in this world who make life a hell for themselves and others by insisting that two plus two equals five - or maybe five hundred!"
- Dale Carnegie

"Don’t Fear The Reaper"

"Don’t Fear The Reaper"
by John Wilder

“No. Not like this. I haven't faced death. I've cheated death. I've tricked my way out of death and patted myself on the back for my ingenuity. I know nothing.”
- James T. Kirk, "Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan"

“Death is the only wise advisor that we have. Whenever you feel, as you always do, that everything is going wrong and you're about to be annihilated, turn to your death and ask if that is so. Your death will tell you that you're wrong; that nothing really matters outside its touch. Your death will tell you, 'I haven't touched you yet.'”
- Carlos Castaneda, "Journey to Ixtlan"

"When The Soon To Be Mrs. and I were just dating, I was cooking something or other. I think it was eggs. I like eggs sunny side up, and don’t particularly care if they’re cooked all the way.  The Soon To Be Mrs.: “Aren’t you worried about salmonella?” John Wilder: (Laughs in full Chad manifestation.) The Soon To Be Mrs.: (Swoons.)

Seriously, she swooned. I’ve never seen it before in my life, but in that moment I think that was what sealed the deal, the moment in time that The Soon To Be Mrs. realized that this one is different. He’s not like the others. Here is a man who has zero fear of The Current Thing, and knows that salmonella won’t be the thing that punches his ticket out of having a functioning circulatory system.

No. I’m not afraid of salmonella. I would spit in its tiny little eyes or flagellum or tentacles and say, “Not today, my bacterium friend! My Danish-Scots-Germanic blood is far too strong for the likes of you!” And then I would attack Poland. Oh, wait, that’s been done.

I know I’m not going to die like Hemingway, and I’m not going to die like the comedy greats Belushi, Twain, or Nietzsche did. Nope. I think I’m gonna go out like Elvis. On a toilet after having eaten a fried peanut butter, jelly and bacon sandwich covered in cheddar cheese and mayo. Nope, I’m gonna die on a toilet. I mean, after all, a king should spend his last moments on the throne, right?

A lot of people worry about dying. I suppose I did, in my 20s, when I was worried about carrying out my responsibilities as a dad. Those are serious responsibilities – because those kids are going to be the legacy that I leave on Earth. That and my writing, collection of PEZ® dispensers and velvet Elvis paintings.

Again, a lot of people worry about dying. I’m not sure why. Of things that are more-or-less predetermined, that’s the big one. We’re all going to die. All of us. And I’m not sure I care.

Oh, sure, I want to live. I have no particular desire to die. If given the preference, I suppose I’m in favor of my continued heartbeat. But I don’t fear death. I don’t go to sleep at night wondering if this pain or that pain or that thing might be the symptom I look up on WebMD® that seals the deal that Wilder is going up to irritate Jesus in Heaven with bad puns.

I don’t worry about some future point when I’m going to enjoy life. I’ve achieved nearly every goal I’ve ever set for my life. End. Full stop. It’s like when a baseball game goes into extra innings, “Hey, free baseball.” And me? Free life. I’ve done nearly everything I’ve ever wanted to do.

What do you give a man who has everything? I mean, besides another bottle of wine. You give that man: Today. I’ve got Today. The only moment I live in is right now. And right now isn’t all that bad. I’m sitting in the sitting room (question: is any room I sit in, by definition, a sitting room? Discuss.) with the cool night air blowing in the window, some songs I love playing on the laptop, a cold beer by the keyboard, and the knowledge that at this moment, everything is fine.

Literally, in my life, Every Single Thing Is Fine. I could go into details, but you already know how awesome I am. So, I live for today? Hell no.

That’s YOLO. The idea that “You Only Live Once” is a free pass to act in any fashion has corroded society. It’s really at the root of many of the problems we have today. It is, in many ways, the absolute inverse of the philosophy I’m trying to describe. YOLO seeks to elevate hedonism and the passions of the moment as the highest good. YOLO is Tinder® times Planned Parenthood© times SnapFaceGramInstaChat® times Rwanda®.

t’s the inversion of beauty: it consists of being positive about, well, any old thing that feels good. I could list these “pleasures”, but you know the list as well as I do. We see it every day, with vice being paraded as virtue, and the continual demand going out for people to celebrate it, because, “Can’t you see? This horrid abomination that no healthy society or people in the entire history of the world has tolerated, iS BeAuTIfUL!” No, I think living a life built on YOLO is one doomed to fail – inevitably it will fail based on two reasons: it is materialism or a faith based on the nihilism of the material world writ large, and it is based on needs, like youth, wealth, sensation, or, yes, even life. So, not YOLO.

One thing I’ve tried to preach is outcome independence. Indeed, since the final outcome of life on Earth is fixed, all the intermediate steps lead there. Instead, I try to focus on virtue and faith. I write not because of YOLO, and not because it’s easy. Some nights it’s hard as hell to get the post to “close” and feel right. There are dozens of posts where, even after 1600 words, I still didn’t say exactly what I meant to say. That’s okay, it’s on me. I’m learning, and if I were perfect at this, I wouldn’t have more work to do.

For me, it’s the work. It’s getting better. It’s finding ways to add value to those people around me. There are those who pull their weight in the world, and those that don’t. I want to be one that pulls his weight, who has contributed as much as I can to helping my family and the wider world.

I don’t always do it. And I’m not always right, either. I’ve produced some stuff in my life that was really, really good, but not perfect. Thankfully, that’s not my mark, either, since just like immortality here on Earth, searching for perfection is a lonely and silly pastime. I want to make the world a better place with my family (first) and my work (now second) guided by God. And I want people to laugh hard while learning and thinking about the things I write.

The beauty of this is to win, all I have to do is the best that I can do every day. To win? All I have to do is be the best person I can be every day. See? Each night, I go to bed and sleep soundly if I know, in that day, that I gave it my all. Do I take time for me? Sure. But that’s not the goal – I serve a higher purpose.

So, what do I fear? Not death. It’s coming whether I like it or not, and, honestly, I’d rather not return my body in factory-fresh condition – I’d like all the parts to fail at once. On the toilet. I think Elvis would have wanted it that way. Oh, wait... I wonder if Elvis ate eggs sunny-side-up? Hang on, I’m sure he did. Elvis ate everything."
Full screen recommended.
Blue Oyster Cult , "Don't Fear The Reaper"

"How It Really Is"

"If only"... you don't stop because you can't stop.
If you do it's all over. It's all over anyway, you're just buying time.
Tell me I'm wrong...

"They Don't Always Do That..."

"When people pile up debts they will find difficult and perhaps even impossible to repay, they are saying several things at once. They are obviously saying that they want more than they can immediately afford. They are saying, less obviously, that their present wants are so important that, to satisfy them, it is worth some future difficulty. But in making that bargain they are implying that when the future difficulty arrives, they’ll figure it out. They don’t always do that.” 
– Michael Lewis, “Boomerang”

"Americans Are Absolutely Drowning In Debt, And This Really Is The Worst Debt Crisis In All Of U.S. History"

"Americans Are Absolutely Drowning In Debt, 
And This Really Is The Worst Debt Crisis In All Of U.S. History"
by Michael Snyder

"I truly wish that headline was an exaggeration. Unfortunately, for decades Americans have been extremely irresponsible with their finances. As a result, credit card debt is at an all-time high, auto loan debt is at an all-time high, mortgage debt is at an all-time high, corporate debt is at an all-time high, state and local governments all over the nation continue to get into absurd amounts of debt, and the federal government has piled up the single largest mountain of debt in the history of the world. Our whole society is absolutely drowning in debt at this stage, and the only way out is for the entire system to collapse.

On Tuesday, we learned that the total amount of credit card debt in the U.S. has now reached a new record high of 1.08 trillion dollars…"Americans now owe $1.08 trillion on their credit cards, according to a new report on household debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Credit card balances spiked by $154 billion year over year, notching the largest increase since 1999, the New York Fed found. “Credit card balances experienced a large jump in the third quarter, consistent with strong consumer spending and real GDP growth,” said Donghoon Lee, the New York Fed’s economic research advisor."

Credit card debt has always been one of the most insidious forms of debt, but now the banks are pushing credit card interest rates to unprecedented heights…"The rise in credit card usage and debt is particularly concerning because interest rates are astronomically high right now. The average credit card annual percentage rate, or APR, hit a new record of 20.72% last week, according to a Bankrate database that goes back to 1985. The previous record was 19% in July 1991.

If people are carrying debt to compensate for steeper prices, they could end up paying more for items in the long run. For instance, if you owe $5,000 in debt — which the average American does — current APR levels would mean it would take about 279 months and $8,124 in interest to pay off the debt making the minimum payments. It should be illegal to issue a credit card that has an interest rate higher than 20 percent. But banks are going to keep doing it because our politicians will not stop them. So don’t fall into their trap.

Other forms of debt are rapidly growing as well…"Auto loan balances also contributed to the uptick, climbing by $13 billion over the course of the third quarter to $1.6 trillion. Student loan debt, meanwhile, increased by $30 billion while mortgage balances jumped by $126 billion to $12.14 trillion."

Overall, U.S. households are now more than 17 trillion dollars in debt. I can’t even begin to describe how foolish we have been. The only way to keep the party going is to borrow even more money, but thanks to higher interest rates we are not going to be able to purchase as much. This is something that Kevin O’Leary pointed out in a recent interview…

“We’re looking at a downsized America. I tell it like it is,” O’Leary said on “The Big Money Show.” “Three years ago, even 24 months ago, you get a mortgage at 4.5%. You’re lucky to get one at eight today. So that means the size of the house you’re going to buy is 20 to 25% smaller. That’s a downsize. You want to borrow for a car? Sorry, that’s 8 to 9%. Used to be five,” the O’Leary Ventures chairman added. “So, smaller, less expensive car. That’s happening at the same time.”

He is right. But we just can’t help ourselves, and so we are going to continue to borrow more money. The same thing is true for our corporations. Today, corporate debt is at the highest level ever recorded. And state and local governments continue to borrow money as if tomorrow will never come. But the biggest offender of all is the federal government. The national debt is currently sitting at 33.6 trillion dollars, and it is constantly going higher. You can watch the national debt clock race upwards right here. To me, that debt clock is actually a countdown to the financial destruction of America.

Once upon a time, I warned that the U.S. would be paying a trillion dollars in interest on the national debt by the year 2030. Well, guess what? We got there early. According to Bloomberg, we have already crossed that ominous threshold…"Estimated annualized interest payments on the US government debt pile climbed past $1 trillion at the end of last month, Bloomberg analysis shows. That projected amount has doubled in the past 19 months from the equivalent figure forecast around the time. The estimated interest expense is calculated using US Treasury data which state the government’s monthly outstanding debt balances and the average interest it pays.

Wow. As usual, things are even worse than many of us were originally projecting. Before I end this article, there is one more thing that I wanted to mention. The “glitch” that affected the direct deposit of so many paychecks all over the nation still has not been resolved five days later…"Federal Reserve officials are urging banks to work with customers hurt by ongoing deposit delays that have prevented some people from accessing their paychecks and other funds.

A number of customers still haven’t received their direct deposit paychecks following a “human error” that damaged the plumbing of America’s banking system. The deposit delays are linked to a problem that emerged on Friday with the Automated Clearing House (ACH) payments system, causing headaches for consumers and employers. “The Federal Reserve encourages banks to work quickly to resolve issues for customers experiencing delays in receiving direct deposit payments as a result of operational issues at a private sector payments provider,” a Fed spokesman told CNN in a statement."

Was it really a “human error” that caused this? If someone just hit a wrong button, you would think that would be relatively easy to fix. Keep a close eye on the banks. As I discuss in my new book entitled “Chaos”, the banks are the beating heart of our economy and enormous trouble is brewing.

Without healthy banks, our entire system will go haywire very rapidly. We need to borrow money for just about every major purchase that we make, and it is the banks that make the vast majority of those loans. If the flow of credit starts to dry up, so will our standard of living. Unfortunately, a credit crunch has now begun, and that is going to have very serious implications for all of us."

Col. Douglas Macgregor, "Major Events Occurring This Week"

Col. Douglas Macgregor, 11/8/23
"Major Events Occurring This Week"
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "More Runs On Banks; Expect Price Distortions to Worsen, Faster"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 11/8/23
"More Runs On Banks; 
Expect Price Distortions to Worsen, Faster"
Comments here:

Adventures With Danno, "Stocking Up At Sam's Club!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 11/8/23
"Stocking Up At Sam's Club!"
"In today's vlog, we are at Sam's Club and are stocking up on some of these great sales going on for the month of November 2023! We take you with us as we show all the different deals and things we are adding to our stockpile!"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
The Atlantis Report, 11/8/23
"15 Shortages That Will Hit 
Grocery Stores Hard In December"
"As we approach the end of the year, we see an unprecedented increase in product shortages, with daily needs getting more and more expensive. The global supply chain is under tremendous pressure and the everyday life of people is being affected ridiculously. Due to these pressures, the food items at stores are getting rare. Here are 20 grocery items that will be impossible to find in 2024."
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Canadian Prepper, "New Emergency War Bill Introduced; German Troops Move To Russian Border; Iran/Israel WW3"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 11/7/23
"New Emergency War Bill Introduced; 
German Troops Move To Russian Border; Iran/Israel WW3"
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Tuesday, November 7, 2023

MUST VIEW! Gerald Celente, "Crusades 2000: Whose Side Are You On?"

Very Strong Language Alert!
Gerald Celente, Trends Journal 11/7/23
"Crusades 2000: Whose Side Are You On?"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present facts and truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for what’s next in these increasingly turbulent times."
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'Yet To See Our Full Might': Hezbollah's Chilling Threat To Israel After Deadly Border Strike"

Full screen recommended.
Hindustan Times, 11/7/23
'Yet To See Our Full Might': Hezbollah's Chilling
Threat To Israel After Deadly Border Strike"
"Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah has warned Israel of “double” revenge after it accused that Israeli strikes killed Lebanese civilians. Hezbollah, backed by Iran, also fired a barrage of rockets in response, which Tel Aviv claimed killed an Israeli civilian. The Israel-Hamas war has escalated border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Around 60 Hezbollah fighters and 10 civilians have been killed since October 7, while more than half a dozen Israeli soldiers and a civilian have also died in border clashes."
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Musical Interlude: Logos, "Cheminement"

Full screen recommended.
 Logos, "Cheminement"