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So, we rise from the rubble...
Thursday, September 21, 2023
Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman, "Pride and Prejudice"
"Pride and Prejudice"
Fed to "proceed carefully" and Americans
to keep their opinions to themselves...
by Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman
Poitou, France - "Of course, you already know the news. Bloomberg: "Fed Signals Higher-for-Longer Rates With Hikes Almost Finished." Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made clear Wednesday the central bank is close to done raising interest rates, but his colleagues delivered the message that resonated: Borrowing costs must remain higher for longer amid renewed strength in the economy. After a series of rapid rate hikes over the past 18 months, the Fed can now “proceed carefully,” Powell said — a sentiment he repeated at least a dozen times Wednesday …"
And of course, you know too that this is all nonsense. Is inflation going up or down? Jerome Powell will find out at the same time as the rest of us. And if it goes up substantially, he will have to raise rates, whether he wants to or not. For now, he will follow; he won’t lead.
Out of Control: The Fed is not really in control. Not now. But it has to appear that it is pulling the strings and turning the knobs. And those things have effects of their own. Investors will buy…or sell…depending on which way they think the wind is blowing. The real test…the moment of truth…will come when asset prices start to go down in a hurry. Then, the Fed will have a real choice – either lead, or follow. Inflate or die. It will then either follow deflating prices with lower interest rates. Or, it will panic and lead the way into a more dangerous inflationary cycle. We will see.
In the meantime, here comes news from Hollywood Unlocked: "Rolling Stone Co-Founder Fired From Hall Of Fame Board After Saying Black Artists Weren’t As Articulate As White Stars." Wenner was discussing his new book. He made the mistake of speaking his mind. For his interviews, he thought the white music greats were more forthcoming. He apologized later, but the harm was done. In America, saying what you really think is verboten.
Too bad. Prejudices are helpful. They economize time. And they help organize things in an orderly, agreeable way. Imagine that you are looking for an investment advisor. You talk to a young man who is dirty, smelly and uses foul language. For all you know, he may be the greatest investor of all time. But your prejudice tells you to keep looking. We take great pride in our prejudices. And since prejudices have fallen out of style, that is, since so many people seem to have a prejudice against them, we rise with a contrarian view.
A Matter of Preference: We like baked onions. We are not fond of fish, generally. When we see a nice, ripe apple on a tree, it gives us a good feeling. A snake – even a harmless black snake – does not.
We all have prejudices – ideas, tastes, preferences about the way things are…or how they should be. The whole progress of humanity depends on them. Some things are good, desirable, worth cultivating and working for…even dying for. Others aren’t. We must choose. We must discriminate. A woman chooses the most desirable mate she can get. A man chooses the best value auto he can afford. We develop prejudices – often unconscious ones – as a kind of shorthand or algorithm to guide us.
Imagine, again. You are a member of a primitive tribe. Another tribe, your hereditary enemies for generations, suddenly appears, girded for battle, near your camp. As far as you know, they have come bearing gifts…wishing to sit around the campfire with you, singing songs of friendship. But you have a bias. You believe they can’t be trusted…you think they have come to kill you and turn your wife and children into slaves. You could be mistaken. Maybe you’re ‘just prejudiced.’ But the cost of being wrong will be high…probably fatal. Prejudice could save you.
Marketing, politics, marriage, work, religion – at some level, all are just a clash of prejudices. Nobody knows the future. Nobody knows what God wants. Nobody knows what is ‘best.’ We all have to guess, by generalizing…stereotyping…and discriminating. And together, through trial and error, mistake, misfire, and misjudgment we stumble along.
In a banned episode of The Simpsons, Homer decides he needs financial help. “I want a Jew,” he says. Maybe Homer didn’t know it, but Bernie Maddoff was a Jew. It didn’t matter. Homer was just giving voice to a popular, but now forbidden, prejudice: Jews are better with money than goyim.
But what we are all most prejudiced about is ourselves. Musk oxen prefer the company of other musk oxen. Elk, geese, penguins – all stick to their own kind. Even slime molds seem to have an affinity for other slime molds just like themselves. And when we look in the mirror, we wonder how any race could be as fetching as we are. If we were Chinese, we would think the Chinese were superior. If we were Italian, we’d likely think Italians had some edge. Jews…Blacks…every group develops a kind of pride in itself…and prejudices towards others. Poor Jan Wenner apologized later, but the harm was done. In America, recognizing your own prejudices is unpardonable." More to come…"
o
Joel’s Note: Long time readers will already be familiar with the phrase “higher for longer.” In fact, it was the title of a column we published in these very pages… back in September of last year! “No, it’s not the name of Snoop Dog’s new album,” we joked at the time, “it’s what we’re forecasting the Fed will do with interest rates in the face of persistent, decidedly non-transitory inflation.” And lo! Here we are… twelve months on… by told by the jefe himself…that rates will, indeed, be higher for longer. Huzzah!
Not that Mr. Powell has every been “ahead of the curve,” so to speak. The man who gave us “transitory inflation” is still battling to get that toothpaste back in the tube. The Fed’s core measure for August showed the biggest increase in 14 months… and that’s on top of the steepest rate hike in living memory. What now? Is it “inflate or die,” as we’ve been chorusing… or inflate and die, as some have put it? We’ll have to wait and see.
Meanwhile, Dan and Tom are polishing the new BPR Doom Index V2.0… “The idea behind the Doom Index,” mused Bill when he introduced the very first iteration more than a decade ago, “is to measure the tension in the system and get a better idea of when the rubber band is going to snap.”
Dear readers know full well the kind of “tension” of which Bill speaks. It’s the chasmic divide between the Wall Street economy and Main Street reality… between D.C. politics and what folks in America’s cities experience on a day to day basis… between what the mainstream presstitutes spout of an evening and what working Americans see and hear with their very own eyes and ears…
“We're focused on the real economy,” explains Dan, “instead of the fake stock market. As such, we're concentrated on the price and flow of the 'master economic resource,' energy. The 8 indicators in the new index are almost all related to the flow of energy in the real economy, from extraction, to transport, to use (this is a faint echo of how the Transports, the Utilities, and the Industrials work in Dow Theory)…”
The new index – Doom 2.0 – will feature prominently in next week’s Monthly Strategy Report, available to subscribers. If you’re not already enjoying all our member’s research, feel free to get “ahead of the curve” and join us, here…"
"Home Depot Is In Trouble Now, This Is A Warning"
Full screen recommended.
The Atlantis Report, 9/21/23
"Home Depot Is In Trouble Now, This Is A Warning"
"Home Depot is dealing with a major crisis, and the global leader in home improvement is in trouble. A company that has long been considered a barometer of the real estate market and the overall economy, is facing serious financial challenges in the last quarter of 2023. Home Depot boasts a storied history as a bellwether indicator for many industries. Over the years, it has consistently mirrored the pulse of the housing and construction industry as well.
What makes Home Depot particularly intriguing is its resilience in the face of adversity. Even during previous downturns, including the infamous Great Recession, Home Depot weathered the storm. Its ability to adapt and thrive during challenging financial times is somewhat of an anomaly. Yet, current indicators appear to deviate from historical patterns. Recent reports have shed light on a series of unfortunate events that Home Depot is currently grappling with. One of the most prominent red flags is the sharp decline in same-store sales experienced during Quarter Two. This downward trend marked Home Depot's third consecutive quarter of negative SSS growth."
Comments here:
Dan, I Allegedly, "It’s A Spending Revolt"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly 9/21/23
"It’s A Spending Revolt"
'People are making up their minds. They do not want to spend any money between now and the end of the year. It’s going to be a bleak holiday season. Plus, we are seeing tax preparers commit fraud, and try to inflate peoples tax returns to get larger commissions."
Comments here:
"Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/21/23"
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Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
Your guide:
Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/21/23
"Hyper-Alert! Debt Market Selloff Intensifies!
Stock Market Risk Is Skyrocketing!"
Comments here:
"Massive Recall On Hamburger! What Now? What's Next?!
Adventures With Danno, 9/21/23
"Massive Recall On Hamburger!
What Now? What's Next?!
"In today's vlog, we are covering the latest of hundreds of recalls over the last year. 58,000 pounds of ground beef has been recalled, and we are discussing how this will affect the grocery prices even more than they already have!"
Comments here:
"This Is The Worst Global Food Crisis In Modern History, And It Is About To Go To An Entirely New Level"
"This Is The Worst Global Food Crisis In Modern History,
And It Is About To Go To An Entirely New Level"
by Michael Snyder
"Hundreds of millions of people are desperately hungry all over the world, and by the time you are done reading this article more children will starve to death. Earlier this year, CNN actually admitted that we are in the midst of “the worst food crisis in modern history”, but because the mainstream media rarely features images of the tremendous suffering on the other side of the globe most Americans don’t even know that it is happening. Here in the western world, the primary way that the global food crisis is manifesting is through significantly higher prices at the grocery store. Those higher prices are certainly painful, but we can deal with that. But when you don’t have enough food to feed your family on a consistent basis, that really is a nightmare scenario. According to the official UN website, 735 million people were in a “state of chronic hunger” last year
By 2022, approximately 735 million people – or 9.2% of the world’s population – found themselves in a state of chronic hunger – a staggering rise compared to 2019. This data underscores the severity of the situation, revealing a growing crisis. In addition, an estimated 2.4 billion people faced moderate to severe food insecurity in 2022. This classification signifies their lack of access to sufficient nourishment. This number escalated by an alarming 391 million people compared to 2019. The persistent surge in hunger and food insecurity, fueled by a complex interplay of factors, demands immediate attention and coordinated global efforts to alleviate this critical humanitarian challenge. We have never seen numbers like this before.
The government of India responded to this crisis by banning the export of non-basmati white rice, but this has created a massive problem for the dozens of countries that rely on rice exports from India…"Last month, India, which is the world’s largest exporter of rice, announced a ban on exporting non-basmati white rice in a bid to calm rising prices at home and ensure food security. India then followed with more restrictions on its rice exports, including a 20% duty on exports of parboiled rice.
The move has triggered fears of global food inflation, hurt the livelihoods of some farmers and prompted several rice-dependent countries to seek urgent exemptions from the ban. More than three billion people worldwide rely on rice as a staple food and India contributed to about 40% of global rice exports."
Please read that last sentence again. Without rice exports from India, the number of people that starve in poor countries in Africa and the Middle East will soar. Some impoverished nations are literally begging India to start exporting non-basmati white rice again, but so far the government of India is not budging. So the price of rice has been surging all over the world, and supplies are getting tighter and tighter.
Let me ask you a question. What would you do if your child was wasting away from malnutrition right in front of your eyes? In Somalia, that is actually happening to half of all children under the age of five…"In Somalia, families are currently facing a catastrophic food crisis. This is the result of a severe and prolonged drought and decades of conflict that have destroyed crop production and made it almost impossible for herders to find food for their animals. Unfortunately, the most vulnerable are children, with 50% of children under five in the country experiencing acute malnutrition."
Here in the western world, our children are not starving. So we should be thankful for that. But the lines at our food banks are getting longer. Here is an example from the state of Ohio… "Kam McKenzie, SNAP outreach manager for the food bank, said the Liberty Street pantry is seeing 940 more families per month since the end of February, when COVID-era SNAP benefits were halted. “So now we’re averaging maybe a little over 300 families a day coming into our Liberty Street pantry to shop for groceries,” said McKenzie. Based on the amount of food given out by Freestore, she estimated the demand on the pantry is up 27% compared to June of 2022."
And we are experiencing problems with our crops too. In the middle of the country, seemingly endless drought conditions have greatly affected corn crops this year…"Lack of rain has hit crops hard: In Missouri, for example, 40% of the state’s corn crop was classified as poor or very poor, according to the drought monitor. Iowa, the nation’s top corn producer, is in the midst of its worst drought in a decade with about 80% of the state in some measure of drought.
Prolonged drought has even reached the banks of Lake Superior: Parts of Wisconsin have the most severe drought designation for the first time since the 1999 inception of the U.S. Drought Monitor, said Dennis Todey, director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Midwest Climate Hub. “It’s the severity of the drought and the length of the drought that are causing some confounding issues right now,” he said."
Unfortunately, we are still only in the very early stages of this new global food crisis. Multiple long-term trends will combine to make it impossible for us to feed everyone on the planet in the years ahead.
Our politicians know this, but they are being very quiet about our rapidly growing food crisis because they don’t want to alarm the general population. But there will be no escape. Hundreds of millions will not have enough food to eat tonight, and it won’t be too long before the number of people that are facing chronic hunger exceeds a billion. And the final numbers for 2023 will inevitably be even higher, because crops are failing all over the planet.
For example, this has been a catastrophic year for rice crops in India…"Satish Kumar sits in front of his submerged rice paddy in India’s Haryana state, looking despairingly at his ruined crops. “I’ve suffered a tremendous loss,” said the third generation farmer, who relies solely on growing the grain to feed his young family. “I will not be able to grow anything until November.” The newly planted saplings have been underwater since July after torrential rain battered northern India, with landslides and flash floods sweeping through the region.
The government of India responded to this crisis by banning the export of non-basmati white rice, but this has created a massive problem for the dozens of countries that rely on rice exports from India…"Last month, India, which is the world’s largest exporter of rice, announced a ban on exporting non-basmati white rice in a bid to calm rising prices at home and ensure food security. India then followed with more restrictions on its rice exports, including a 20% duty on exports of parboiled rice. The move has triggered fears of global food inflation, hurt the livelihoods of some farmers and prompted several rice-dependent countries to seek urgent exemptions from the ban. More than three billion people worldwide rely on rice as a staple food and India contributed to about 40% of global rice exports."
Please read that last sentence again. Without rice exports from India, the number of people that starve in poor countries in Africa and the Middle East will soar. Some impoverished nations are literally begging India to start exporting non-basmati white rice again, but so far the government of India is not budging. So the price of rice has been surging all over the world, and supplies are getting tighter and tighter.
Let me ask you a question. What would you do if your child was wasting away from malnutrition right in front of your eyes? In Somalia, that is actually happening to half of all children under the age of five…"In Somalia, families are currently facing a catastrophic food crisis. This is the result of a severe and prolonged drought and decades of conflict that have destroyed crop production and made it almost impossible for herders to find food for their animals. Unfortunately, the most vulnerable are children, with 50% of children under five in the country experiencing acute malnutrition."
Here in the western world, our children are not starving. So we should be thankful for that. But the lines at our food banks are getting longer. Here is an example from the state of Ohio…"Kam McKenzie, SNAP outreach manager for the food bank, said the Liberty Street pantry is seeing 940 more families per month since the end of February, when COVID-era SNAP benefits were halted. “So now we’re averaging maybe a little over 300 families a day coming into our Liberty Street pantry to shop for groceries,” said McKenzie. Based on the amount of food given out by Freestore, she estimated the demand on the pantry is up 27% compared to June of 2022."
And we are experiencing problems with our crops too. In the middle of the country, seemingly endless drought conditions have greatly affected corn crops this year…"Lack of rain has hit crops hard: In Missouri, for example, 40% of the state’s corn crop was classified as poor or very poor, according to the drought monitor. Iowa, the nation’s top corn producer, is in the midst of its worst drought in a decade with about 80% of the state in some measure of drought.
Prolonged drought has even reached the banks of Lake Superior: Parts of Wisconsin have the most severe drought designation for the first time since the 1999 inception of the U.S. Drought Monitor, said Dennis Todey, director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Midwest Climate Hub. “It’s the severity of the drought and the length of the drought that are causing some confounding issues right now,” he said."
Unfortunately, we are still only in the very early stages of this new global food crisis. Multiple long-term trends will combine to make it impossible for us to feed everyone on the planet in the years ahead. Our politicians know this, but they are being very quiet about our rapidly growing food crisis because they don’t want to alarm the general population. But there will be no escape. Hundreds of millions will not have enough food to eat tonight, and it won’t be too long before the number of people that are facing chronic hunger exceeds a billion."
Wednesday, September 20, 2023
"Jeremiah Babe, 9/20/23"
Jeremiah Babe, 9/20/23
"Economy Will Br Crippled In 2024; Broke Americans
Pulling Money From Their Homes; FED Confusion"
Comments here:
Musical Interlude: The Alan Parsons Project, "Sirius", "Eye In The Sky"
The Alan Parsons Project, "Sirius", "Eye In The Sky"
"A Look to the Heavens"
"Have you ever seen the Pleiades star cluster? Even if you have, you probably have never seen it as large and clear as this. Perhaps the most famous star cluster on the sky, the bright stars of the Pleiades can be seen without binoculars from even the depths of a light-polluted city. With a long exposure from a dark location, though, the dust cloud surrounding the Pleiades star cluster becomes very evident. The featured exposure, taken from Florida, USA, covers a sky area several times the size of the full moon.
Also known as the Seven Sisters and M45, the Pleiades lies about 400 light years away toward the constellation of the Bull (Taurus). A common legend with a modern twist is that one of the brighter stars faded since the cluster was named, leaving only six of the sister stars visible to the unaided eye. The actual number of Pleiades stars visible, however, may be more or less than seven, depending on the darkness of the surrounding sky and the clarity of the observer's eyesight."
"A Revision Of Belief..."
“Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race ‘looking out for its best interests,’ as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.“
- Nassim Taleb
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble.
It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
- Mark Twain
Gregory Mannarino, PM 9/20/23
"It's a Big Club, and you ain't in it.
You and I are not in the Big Club."
- George Carlin
o
Gregory Mannarino, PM 9/20/23
"FED Votes 'No Confidence' For The
US Economy. Stocks Drop!"
Comments here:
"Nine Meals from Anarchy"
"Nine Meals from Anarchy"
by Jeff Thomas
"In 1906, Alfred Henry Lewis stated, “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.” Since then, his observation has been echoed by people as disparate as Robert Heinlein and Leon Trotsky. The key here is that, unlike all other commodities, food is the one essential that cannot be postponed. If there were a shortage of, say, shoes, we could make do for months or even years. A shortage of gasoline would be worse, but we could survive it, through mass transport or even walking, if necessary.
But food is different. If there were an interruption in the supply of food, fear would set in immediately. And, if the resumption of the food supply were uncertain, the fear would become pronounced. After only nine missed meals, it’s not unlikely that we’d panic and be prepared to commit a crime to acquire food. If we were to see our neighbor with a loaf of bread, and we owned a gun, we might well say, “I’m sorry, you’re a good neighbor and we’ve been friends for years, but my children haven’t eaten today – I have to have that bread – even if I have to shoot you.”
There’s no need to speculate on this concern yet. There’s nothing so alarming on the evening news yet to suggest that such a problem might be imminent. So, let’s have a closer look at the actual food distribution industry, compare it to the present direction of the economy, and see whether there might be reason for concern.
The food industry typically operates on very small margins – often below 2%. Traditionally, wholesalers and retailers have relied on a two-week turnaround of supply and anywhere up to a 30-day payment plan. But an increasing tightening of the economic system for the last eight years has resulted in a turnaround time of just three days for both supply and payment for many in the industry. This a system that’s still fully operative, but with no further wiggle room, should it take a significant further hit.
If there were a month where significant inflation took place (The Feds lie say 9.1%; really now at least 17%), all profits would be lost for the month for both suppliers and retailers, but goods could still be replaced and sold for a higher price next month. But, if there were three or more consecutive months of inflation, the industry would be unable to bridge the gap, even if better conditions were expected to develop in future months. A failure to pay in full for several months would mean smaller orders by those who could not pay. That would mean fewer goods on the shelves. The longer the inflationary trend continued, the more quickly prices would rise to hopefully offset the inflation. And ever-fewer items on the shelves.
From Germany in 1922, to Argentina in 2000, and to Venezuela in 2016, this has been the pattern whenever inflation has become systemic, rather than sporadic. Each month, some stores close, beginning with those that are the most poorly capitalized.
In good economic times, this would mean more business for those stores that were still solvent, but in an inflationary situation, they would be in no position to take on more unprofitable business. The result is that the volume of food on offer at retailers would decrease at a pace with the severity of the inflation.
However, the demand for food would not decrease by a single loaf of bread. Store closings would be felt most immediately in inner cities, when one closing would send customers to the next neighborhood seeking food. The real danger would come when that store also closes and both neighborhoods descended on a third store in yet another neighborhood. That’s when one loaf of bread for every three potential purchasers would become worth killing over. Virtually no one would long tolerate seeing his children go without food because others had “invaded” his local supermarket.
In addition to retailers, the entire industry would be impacted and, as retailers disappeared, so would suppliers, and so on, up the food chain. This would not occur in an orderly fashion, or in one specific area. The problem would be a national one. Closures would be all over the map, seemingly at random, affecting all areas. Food riots would take place, first in the inner cities then spread to other communities. Buyers, fearful of shortages, would clean out the shelves.
Importantly, it’s the very unpredictability of food delivery that increases fear, creating panic and violence. And, again, none of the above is speculation; it’s a historical pattern – a reaction based upon human nature whenever systemic inflation occurs.
Then… unfortunately… the cavalry arrives. At that point, it would be very likely that the central government would step in and issue controls to the food industry that served political needs rather than business needs, greatly exacerbating the problem. Suppliers would be ordered to deliver to those neighborhoods where the riots are the worst, even if those retailers are unable to pay. This would increase the number of closings of suppliers.
Along the way, truckers would begin to refuse to enter troubled neighborhoods, and the military might well be brought in to force deliveries to take place. (If truckers could afford $4.54 a gallon diesel fuel.)
So, what would it take for the above to occur? Well, historically, it has always begun with excessive debt. We know that the debt level is now the highest it has ever been in world history. (US debt as of September 2023 $33 trillion; World debt as of September 2023: $307 trillion.) In addition, the stock and bond markets are in bubbles of historic proportions. They will most certainly pop.
With a crash in the markets, deflation always follows as people try to unload assets to cover for their losses. The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) has stated that it will unquestionably print as much money as it takes to counter deflation. Unfortunately, inflation has a far greater effect on the price of commodities than assets. Therefore, the prices of commodities will rise dramatically, further squeezing the purchasing power of the consumer, thereby decreasing the likelihood that he will buy assets, even if they’re bargain priced. Therefore, asset holders will drop their prices repeatedly as they become more desperate. The Fed then prints more to counter the deeper deflation and we enter a period when deflation and inflation are increasing concurrently.
Historically, when this point has been reached, no government has ever done the right thing. They have, instead, done the very opposite – keep printing. A by-product of this conundrum is reflected in the photo above. Food still exists, but retailers shut down because they cannot pay for goods. Suppliers shut down because they’re not receiving payments from retailers. Producers cut production because sales are plummeting.
In every country that has passed through such a period, the government has eventually gotten out of the way and the free market has prevailed, re-energizing the industry and creating a return to normal. The question is not whether civilization will come to an end. (It will not.) The question is the liveability of a society that is experiencing a food crisis, as even the best of people are likely to panic and become a potential threat to anyone who is known to store a case of soup in his cellar.
Fear of starvation is fundamentally different from other fears of shortages. Even good people panic. In such times, it’s advantageous to be living in a rural setting, as far from the centre of panic as possible. It’s also advantageous to store food in advance that will last for several months, if necessary. However, even these measures are no guarantee, as, today, modern highways and efficient cars make it easy for anyone to travel quickly to where the goods are. The ideal is to be prepared to sit out the crisis in a country that will be less likely to be impacted by dramatic inflation – where the likelihood of a food crisis is low and basic safety is more assured."
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We'll find out, very soon... God help us.
"When People Can’t Take Care Of Themselves They Start To Go Nuts"
Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 9/20/23
"When People Can’t Take Care Of
Themselves They Start To Go Nuts"
"In 2023, we witnessed the largest drop in the average household income since 2010. At the same time, the child poverty rate in America has risen by more than 100%, while a devastating homelessness crisis continues to spread across the country, and official numbers show that the number of unhoused Americans is rising at the fastest pace on record.
According to Bloomberg estimates, at least 8 million Americans have fallen out of the middle-class in the past few years, and now we’re hearing more and more news about families that used to live comfortably just a few months ago, but now they’re relying on food banks to have enough to eat and feed their kids.
The government continues to deny that this is a serious economic crisis. None of their measures can actually solve any of our problems. No wonder why new research has found that trust in our major institutions is at an all-time low. A growing share of Americans is realizing that the people in power are not really interested in making our country any better.
Americans are losing hope and motivation, and when they realize that they simply cannot take care of themselves and that no one is going to help them, many people will start to go completely nuts. Without a doubt, the economic desperation our citizens are facing is one of the main factors fueling the massive crime wave our country has been experiencing.
A major example of that is the astronomical rise in the number of carjacking cases since 2018. In the U.S. capital, such offenses have tripled over the past five years, according to official statistics released by the MPD. Nationwide, car theft is dominating the headlines in America. A CCJ study found that the number of car thefts in the first six months of the year was 104.3% higher than the same period in 2019. Of the 32 cities that the CCJ tracked, seven of them saw rates shoot up by 100% or more compared to the same time last year. Rochester, New York, saw the largest increase in vehicle thefts, with a spike of 355%.
The lawlessness in our major cities is spreading so fast that many companies are having to do the unthinkable. For instance, Aldi has started to make theft checks a routine part of the checkout process as shoplifting rates continue to shoot up at stores. In New York, shoplifters are running so wild that grocers are having to lock the lids of high-end ice cream to prevent people from emptying them out and filling them with garbage.
It was the government that led us to this mess, and now we’re suffering the consequences because consumer prices are not going down any time soon. Unfortunately, this is just the beginning. The cost of living crisis will continue to accelerate in the months ahead, and that means that the level of desperation will continue to increase.
Many numbers, stats, and indicators are signaling that we’re in the very early stages of a major economic meltdown. And as our nation crumbles all around us, millions of citizens are going to become very desperate, and very desperate people do very desperate things."
Comments here:
"As Americans..."
''As Americans, we must ask ourselves: Are we really so different? Must we stereotype those who disagree with us? Do we truly believe that ALL red-state residents are ignorant racist fascist knuckle-dragging NASCAR-obsessed cousin-marrying roadkill-eating tobacco juice-dribbling gun-fondling religious fanatic rednecks; or that ALL blue-state residents are godless unpatriotic pierced-nose Volvo-driving France-loving left-wing communist latte-sucking tofu-chomping holistic-wacko neurotic vegan weenie perverts?''
- Dave Barry
Judge Napolitano, "How NATO Caused the Ukraine War w/Scott Ritter"
Full screen recommended.
Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 9/20/23
"How NATO Caused the Ukraine War w/Scott Ritter"
Comments here:
"We Like To Think..."
“We like to think that we are rational beings; humane, conscientious, civilized, thoughtful. But when things fall apart, even just a little, it becomes clear we are not better than animals. We have opposable thumbs, we think, we walk erect, we speak, we dream, but deep down we are still routing around in the primordial ooze; biting, clawing, scratching out an existence in the cold, dark world like the rest of the tree-toads and sloths.”
- “Grey’s Anatomy”
"These 14 Small Mindset Shifts Will Change Your Life"
"These 14 Small Mindset Shifts Will Change Your Life"
"For the most part, we can’t change the world. We can’t change the fundamental facts of existence - like the fact that we’re going to die. We can’t change other people. Does that mean that everything is hopeless and permanently broken? No, because although we have that extreme powerlessness in one sense, we have an incredible superpower in another: We can change how we think about things. We can change how we view them, how we orient ourselves to them.
That’s the essence of Stoicism, by the way. The idea that we don’t control what happens, but we do control ourselves. When we respond to what happens, the main thing we control is our mind and the story we tell ourselves.
So one way to think about Stoicism itself then is as a collection of mindset shifts for the many situations that life seems to thrust us in. Indeed, Seneca’s "Letters," Marcus Aurelius’ "Meditations," and Epictetus’ "Discourses" are filled with passages, anecdotes, and quotes which force a shift in perspective. Here are 14 that I have taken from the Stoics over the years that have changed my life. I think they’ll do the same for you.
Everything is an opportunity for excellence. The now famous passage from Marcus Aurelius is that the impediment to action advances action, that what stands in the way becomes the way. But do you know what he was talking about specifically? He was talking about difficult people! He was saying that difficult people are an opportunity to practice excellence and virtue - be it forgiveness or patience or cheerfulness. And so it goes for all the things that are not in our control in life. So when I find myself in situations big and small, positive or negative, I try to see each of them as an opportunity for me to be the best I’m capable of being in that moment. It doesn’t matter who we are, where we are, we can always do this.
Every event has two handles, Epictetus said: “one by which it can be carried, and one by which it can’t. If your brother does you wrong, don’t grab it by his wronging, because this is the handle incapable of lifting it. Instead, use the other - that he is your brother, that you were raised together, and then you will have hold of the handle that carries.” Another way to say that is that there are multiple ways to look at every situation, multiple ways to determine how you’re going to react. Some of them are sturdy and some of them are not. Some are kind and resilient, some are not. Which will you choose? Which handle will you grab?
The world is dyed by the color of your thoughts. Marcus said, “The things you think about determine the quality of your mind. Your soul takes the color of your thoughts.” He also said, “Our life is what our thoughts make it.” If you see the world as a negative, horrible place, you’re right. If you look for shittiness, you will see shittiness. If you believe that you were screwed, you’re right. But if you look for beauty in the mundane, you’ll see it. If you look for evidence of goodness in people, you’ll find it. If you decide to see the agency and power you do have over your life (which as we’ve said is largely in how we think), well, you’ll find you have quite a bit.
There is a tax on everything. Taxes aren’t just from the government. Seneca wrote to his friend Lucilius, “All the things which cause complaint or dread are like the taxes of life—things from which, my dear Lucilius, you should never hope for exemption or seek escape.” Annoying people are a tax on being outside your house. Delays are a tax on travel. Haters are a tax on having a YouTube channel. There’s a tax on money too–and the more successful you are, the more you pay. Seneca said he tried to pay the taxes gladly. I love that. After all, it’s usually a sign of a good problem. It means you had a killer year financially. It means you’re alive and breathing. You can whine about the cost. Or you can pay and move on.
Poverty isn’t only having too little. Of course, not having what you need to survive is insufficient. But what about people who have a lot…but are insatiable? Who are plagued by envy and comparison? Both Marcus Aurelius and Seneca talk about rich people who are not content with what they have and are thus quite poor. But feeling like you have ‘enough’–that’s rich no matter what your income is.
Alive time or Dead time? This isn’t from the Stoics exactly, but close enough. Robert Greene once told me there were two types of time in life: Alive time and Dead time. One is when you sit around, when you wait until things happen to you. The other is when you are using that time productively, actively. You’re stuck at the airport - you don’t control that. You decide whether it’s alive time or dead time (you read a book, you take a walk, you call your grandmother). I had a year left on a job when Robert gave me that advice. I could have just sat on my hands. Instead, it was an incredibly productive period of reading and researching and filling boxes of notecards that helped me write "The Obstacle is the Way" and "Ego is the Enemy."
Anxiety isn’t escaped. It’s discarded. This was a breakthrough I had during the pandemic. Suddenly, I had a lot less to worry about. I wasn’t doing the things that, in the past, I told myself were the causes of my anxiety. I wasn’t having to get to a plane. I wasn’t battling traffic to get somewhere on time. I wasn’t having to prepare for this talk or that one. So you’d think that my anxiety would have gone way down. But it didn’t. And what I realized is that anxiety has nothing to do with any of these things. The airport isn’t the one to blame. I am! Marcus Aurelius actually talks about this in Meditations. “Today I escaped from anxiety,” he says. “Or no, I discarded it, because it was within me, in my own perceptions—not outside.” It’s not your parents that are frustrating you. They’re just doing what they do. You are the source of the frustration. That’s a little frustrating, but it’s also freeing. Because it means you can stop it! You can choose to discard it.
It’s the surprise that kills you. Stuff is going to happen, but what makes it harder is when it catches us off guard. The unexpected blow lands heaviest, Seneca said. That’s why we should practice the art of premeditatio malorum–essentially, a pre-mortem of the things that could happen in a day or a life. This takes the sting out of them in advance…it also lets us prepare and prevent. And for no one is this more important than parents and leaders. Seneca said that the one thing a leader is not allowed to say is, “Wow, I didn’t think that was going to happen.”
You can’t learn what you think you already know. Conceit, Zeno said, was the enemy of wisdom and learning. This was the essential worldview of Socrates, the hero of the Stoics. Think of Socrates’ method. He didn’t go around telling people anything. He went around asking questions. That’s how he learned so much and ended up becoming so smart. If you want to get smarter, stop thinking you’re so smart. If you want to learn, focus on all the things you don’t know. Humility, admission of ignorance–these are the starting points. This is the attitude that gets you further in life.
What good is posthumous fame? Marcus Aurelius knew he was famous. He knew they were building statues of him. He knew he would have a legacy. He also knew this was basically worthless. What good is posthumous fame, he asks in Meditations, when you’re not around to enjoy it?! He reminded himself too that you know, it’s not like the people in the future were going to be way better than the people alive right now - there will be idiots in the future too. What do I care about how many people read my books in 100 years? What matters is if I am doing my best right now, if I am taking pleasure and pride from doing my best right now. So stop trying to live forever by achieving all this greatness, stop trying to get more than you need, stop trying to perform for history. Do the good you can do now. Stop chasing something you will never touch. Legacy is not for you. You’ll be dead. Leave it to others.
People are just doing their job. I don’t just mean at work. After bumping into a particularly frustrating person, Marcus Aurelius asks himself, “Is a world without shamelessness possible?” No, he answers. “There have to be shameless people in the world. This is one of them.” This is just someone fulfilling their role. Seeing things this way not only prevents me from being surprised, but it makes me sympathetic. This person has a crappy job.It’s not fun to be them–they have to be one of the jerks that exist in the world. And then I remind myself that I am lucky that my job is to try to be a good person.
They don’t want you to be miserable. It’s strange that Stoics have the reputation for being unfeeling when Seneca wrote three very beautiful essays on loss and grief called Consolations. I read these essays whenever I lose someone or miss someone who I loved. Anyway, one of the lessons that hit me the most is when he is writing to the daughter of a now-deceased friend. He brings up a great point, basically saying, look, your dad loved you so much. Of course, he would be honored that you miss him, but do you think he would want his death to make you miserable? Would he want the mere mention of his name to bring you pain? No, that would be his worst nightmare. He would want you to be happy. He would want you to go on with your life. He wouldn’t want his memory to haunt you like a ghost–he would want the thought of him to bring you joy and happiness. Of course, we’re always going to feel sad when we lose someone, but then we can remind ourselves of this and try to smile too.
Opinions are optional. “Remember, you always have the power to have no opinion,” Marcus says. Do you need to have an opinion about the weather today - is it changing anything? Do you need to have an opinion about the way your kid does their hair? So what if this person likes music that sounds weird to you? So what if that person is a vegetarian? “These things are not asking to be judged by you,” Marcus writes. “Leave them alone.” Especially because these opinions often make us miserable! “It’s not things that upset us,” Epictetus says, “it’s our opinions about things.” The less opinions you have, especially about other people and things outside your control, the happier you will be. The nicer you’ll be to be around too.
The last one is the most powerful one, I think. And it’s about the thing we have the least amount of power and control over: the fact that we’re all going to die. But the Stoics want us to think about it differently…
Death isn’t in the future. It’s happening now. It’s easy to see death as this thing that lies off in the distant future. It’s a fixed event that happens to us once…at the end. This is literally true but it’s also incorrect. “This is our big mistake,” as Seneca points out, “to think we look forward toward death. Most of death is already gone. Whatever time has passed is owned by death.”
It’s better to think of death as a process - something that is always happening. We are dying every day, he said. Even as you read this email, time is passing that you will never get back. That time, he said, belongs to death. Powerful, right? Death doesn’t lie off in the distance. It’s with us right now. It’s the second hand on the clock. It’s the setting sun. As the arrow of time moves, death follows, claiming every moment that has passed. What ought we do about it? The answer is live. Live while you can. Put nothing off. Leave nothing unfinished. Seize it while it still belongs to us."
"Meanwhile, In A Civilized Society With Normal People..."
Full screen recommended.
Travelling with Russell, 9/20/23
"Moscow Urban Forum 2023:
The Future of Russian Transportation"
"Take a walk through the Moscow Urban Forum at the Moscow Manege. "The Future of Russian Transportation" is the highlight of this event. The Moscow Urban Forum (MUF) is an international forum about urbanization issues held in Moscow annually by the Government of Moscow."
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Look at those people.
Now look at us... come on, tell me. What do you see?
Comments?
Bill Bonner, "A Call To ARMs"
"A Call To ARMs"
National debt surpasses $33 trillion, Treasury yields take
off and a nation turns its lonely eyes to the Fed, boo-hoo-hoo...
by Bill Bonner
"Now I’ve got plenty of arms.
Big arms. Pretty arms.
I got arms up the wazoo."
~ General Rancor, "Spy Hard"
Poitou, France - "Today is the big day. The Fed is supposed to begin its “pause”…a prelude, it is widely believed, to cutting rates next year. Nearly 20 years ago, we wrote a book, with Addison Wiggin, in which we saw this coming. On some dark day in the future, we predicted, “the Fed will panic. In desperation, [the Fed chairman] will point south, toward Argentina. ‘There…that is our only way out,’ he will say.” That was what is known in meteorology as a ‘long range weather forecast.’ But the range is shortening all the time. And investors are beginning to look for their umbrellas.
Climbing Mt. Debtmore: Here is an item from yesterday’s news, Scripps: "US national debt surpasses $33 trillion for first time. The U.S. national debt exceeded $33 trillion for the first time ever this week, according to the Treasury Department, surpassing a critical milestone at a time when government spending is in the national spotlight."
Now, let’s widen the focus. Reuters: "Global debt hits record $307 trillion, debt ratios climb - IIF. Global debt hit a record $307 trillion in the second quarter of the year despite rising interest rates curbing bank credit, with markets such as the United States and Japan driving the rise, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said on Tuesday.
The financial services trade group said in a report that global debt in dollar terms had risen by $10 trillion in the first half of 2023 and by $100 trillion over the past decade. The latest increase has lifted the global debt-to-GDP ratio for a second straight quarter to 336%. A slowdown in growth, alongside a deceleration in price increases, have caused nominal GDP to expand less slowly than debt levels and were behind the debt ratio rise, the report said."
And here is another report, which gives us a hint of the Fed’s coming panic, the Washington Examiner: "Treasury yields hit highest since 2007 as markets fret Fed action. Treasury yields have risen in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision this week, with the 10-year yield hitting its highest level in more than a decade. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were sitting at 4.34% on Tuesday, the highest they have been since 2007. Meanwhile, the benchmark two-year Treasury yield was at 5.08%, the highest it has been since 2006, although it was briefly a bit higher in March."
Let’s see. The world’s debt pile is getting higher and higher…as interest rates go up. Somewhere up ahead, the drunk driver meets his brick wall.
No Way, José: In July of 2020, the yield on a 2-year Treasury bill was 0.11%. Now, over 5%, it is 45 times as high. And if the world’s debt had to be financed at today’s 2-year rate, it would mean annual interest payments of more than $15 trillion – or 17% of world GDP. Not going to happen. Can’t happen.
The problem is the ARMs. Last week, the financial world was enchanted by the biggest IPO in 2 years. The Financial Times: "Shares in the chip designer, Arm, jumped as much as 20% as it began trading on the Nasdaq yesterday, valuing the Softbank-backed company at more than $63 billion. The company was worth only $32 billion in 2016. Seven years later it added $31 billion in value. How was that possible, given that sales growth and net income actually declined last year? “We’re more diversified now,” explained the CEO."
This is, of course, no explanation. Diversity may make a company more resilient; it is not likely to make it more profitable. Last year the company had net income around $500 million. At $63 billion, the market is capitalizing the business at 120 times earnings. Or, to put it another way, if you bought the whole business…and things stayed the same…you’d have to wait until year 2,143 to get your money back. Which is a long time to expect things to stay the same in the tech world.
Yes, some people may still have rotary phones and wear bell bottoms. Long Playing vinyl records are coming back in style. But nobody is getting rich by selling floppy disks or cassette tapes. For every new technology, there is newer technology. And for everyone who makes money betting on it, there are at least 10 old geezers living on Social Security who wished they’d sold earlier.
Things never stay the same. You have to adjust to them. Which is why it is not the short Arm that gets our attention this morning…it’s the long ARMs.
Printing Press Prosperity: We all know that homeowners would have been better off if, when the gettin’ was good, they had gotten long-term fixed-rate mortgages. They could make their small payments…and wait for the mortgage company to beg them to pay off their loans early. An adjustable rate mortgage, on the other hand, in a period of rising interest rates, is murder. Imagine you have a mortgage of $300,000. You got it at 3% – or less than $1,000 per month. Now, it’s 7% – more than twice as much.
Shorter-term loans are generally cheaper, so much of the world’s debt is short term, and – in effect – adjustable rate. We’ve seen (above) that the official US national debt is over $33 trillion. We’ve also seen that $7.6 trillion of it will need to be adjusted over the next 12 months. Instead of paying 0.11% – as the Treasury did for a 2-year loan in 2020 – it may pay over 5%. A big adjustment. But that’s not all. Not included in the official debt total are obligations for Social Security, veterans’ benefits, disability (NOT including reparations or student loan forgiveness) and other unfunded liabilities that tote to nearly $200 trillion, according to our usually reliable source, MN Gordon at Economic Prism. These liabilities adjust daily. That is, the funds for them must be raised on the open market, as they come due.
All this adjustable rate debt is like a dental appointment that has been put off for too long. It won’t be much fun, when you finally get in the reclining chair. We stand by our forecast. As the rates move upward…and businesses, households and the government try to adjust, central banks around the world will panic…and go back to the printing presses."
"It's Happening Right Before Your Eyes (Housing Crash)"
The Economic Ninja, 9/20/23
"It's Happening Right Before Your Eyes (Housing Crash)"
Comments here:
Dan, I Allegedly, "It’s Time to Sell It All"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly 9/20/23
"It’s Time to Sell It All"
"The market is about to collapse. Today I bring on Bob Kudla, who tells
us to “sell it all.” He feels that the market is going to be shorted extensively."
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"Food And Employee Shortage Reports! This Is Getting Worse!"
Adventures With Danno, AM 9/20/23
"Food And Employee Shortage Reports!
This Is Getting Worse!"
"We are discussing the recent surge in grocery prices and new reports coming in on more food shortages! We are also going over all of the recent employee shortages all around the country! It is getting crazy out here as more families are struggling to put food on the table!"
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Tuesday, September 19, 2023
Jeremiah Babe, 9/19/23
Jeremiah Babe, 9/19/23
"Your New Career Will Be In Fast Food;
Stop Believing In Economic Fantasies"
Comments here:
Canadian Prepper, "Cancelled! This Is Going To Get Very Ugly"
Canadian Prepper, 9/19/23
"Cancelled! This Is Going To Get Very Ugly"
"Proof that this ship is sinking. Justin Trudeau just held an emergency meeting about food prices, food price hikes are coming! Rising energy, transport, fertilizer prices as well as climate issues are causing prices to explode.
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Musical Interlude: 2002, "Greater Than The Sum"
Full screen recommended.
2002, "Greater Than The Sum"
In Ancient Greece, philosopher Aristotle (384–322 B.C.)
wrote “The whole is greater than the sum of the parts”
"A Look to the Heavens"
"From our vantage point in the Milky Way Galaxy, we see NGC 6946 face-on. The big, beautiful spiral galaxy is located just 20 million light-years away, behind a veil of foreground dust and stars in the high and far-off constellation of Cepheus. From the core outward, the galaxy's colors change from the yellowish light of old stars in the center to young blue star clusters and reddish star forming regions along the loose, fragmented spiral arms.
NGC 6946 is also bright in infrared light and rich in gas and dust, exhibiting a high star birth and death rate. In fact, since the early 20th century at least nine supernovae, the death explosions of massive stars, were discovered in NGC 6946. Nearly 40,000 light-years across, NGC 6946 is also known as the Fireworks Galaxy. This remarkable portrait of NGC 6946 is a composite that includes image data from the 8.2 meter Subaru Telescope on Mauna Kea.”
"Vive la Difference, Indeed!"
Full screen recommended.
"Five Stupid Questions Women Ask Men:
Vive la Différence, Indeed!"
"Why is it that men are better at getting their needs met than women? Maybe because they know how to keep it simple. Connie Podesta explains in this humorous yet poignant clip the five stupid questions women ask men and why. This is a very funny clip, enjoy!"
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Hat tip to Kamosa from Second Life for this material!
Comments? He asks from a safe distance, of course lol...
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