Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman, "The Origin of Charles Darwin"

"The Origin of Charles Darwin"
Standing on the shoulders of giants...and dwarves.
By Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

"A mistake I strongly urge you to avoid for all you’re worth,
An error in this matter you should give the widest berth,
Namely don’t imagine that the bright lights of your eyes
Were purpose made so we could look ahead or that our thighs’
And calves were hinged together at the joints and set on feet
So we could walk with lengthy stride, or that forearms fit neat
To brawny upper arms, and are equipped on right and left
With helping hands, solely that we be dexterous and deft
At undertaking all the things we need to do to live.
This rationale and all the others like it people give
Jumbles effect and cause, and puts the cart before the horse."
~  Lucretius, "De Rerum Natura"

Paris, France - "Darwin read Adam Smith. When he came back from his long voyage on the Beagle, he read Dugald Stewart’s biography of Adam Smith. He read Malthus. He read his own grandfather, Erasmus, an admirer and imitator of Lucretius. He was not alone. He was evolving.

Ideas fight for survival. Some succeed. Most don’t. Dozens of Christian heresies succumbed. Dozens of well-developed theories, too – about the movement of planets…the influence of the gods…the vapors…the air itself and the flux of nature. All of them lived, some briefly, and all died out; like dinosaurs and floppy disks, they were poorly adapted to the new world.

A Greater Revolution -  But Smith’s new idea was an alpha idea…a Genghis Khan of an idea, one that would produce thousands of offspring. It wasn’t completely new. But it was new enough…and it was ready for a renaissance…a renewal – it was born again in the 19th century and continues to shape our thinking after 150 years.

What Darwin wrought, wrote Alfred Russel Wallace, “was a greater revolution in human thought within a quarter of a century than any of our time – or perhaps any time…a new conception of the world of life…”

The idea had been in the shadows for many centuries. And disappeared entirely for long stretches. While widely acknowledged today as useful and descriptive, its implications are still not fully appreciated. It explains why so many of our public policies are destined to fail…and why so many of the views and opinions you read in the New York Times and Washington Post are nonsense.

At first, the idea of ‘evolution’ was confined to biology. We saw the fossils… the skeletons…the footprints of ancient species; we noticed the legs taking shape…the arms…and the monkeys, swinging from the trees…and then, walking upright, almost human. And then, the fossil collections grew. Hip bones were fitted together with leg bones…and whole new baubles – including hitherto unknown species of “humans” – were hanging from the family tree. The resemblances were unmistakable. There was Uncle Harvey’s jaw – on the face of a baboon! There was Aunt Lucy’s nasty growl…coming from a hyena.

“The Evolution of Everything”: And it was all laid out for us, 2000 years ago, after the Greek gods had been dismissed…and before Christ climbed Calvary, by Lucretius:

"For certainly the elements of things do not collect
And order their formations by their cunning intellect.
Nor are their motions something they agree upon or propose
But being myriad and man-mingled, plagued by blows
And buffeted through the universe for all time past,
By trying every motion and combination they at last
Fell into the present form in which the universe appears."

People do things. They build their own houses. They choose their own music. They invent. They innovate. They find their own mates, often with no conscious awareness of what they are doing…or why they are doing it. And by combination and recombination things come together, not by any design…but by happenstance. Some things survive. Some don’t. In either case, they don’t need no stinkin’ Fed to guide them.

Even Darwin himself was reluctant to take the idea much further than biology. And yet, doesn’t it apply to just about everything? Lord Ridley wrote a book about it, “The Evolution of Everything.” The principle…that things evolve, by human action but not human design…seems to describe government, money, technology, culture, genes, even morality. They are all “man mingled;” but no human mind controls them or comprehends them.

You’ve seen us make the point many times before, mischievously….that if slavery were still profitable, it would still be with us. It was the Industrial Revolution that undid it…not Lincoln…not Harriet Beecher Stowe…and not William T. Sherman burning down Atlanta.

Gradually…then Suddenly: Imagine that you want to take a trip across the USA. And imagine that slavery were still in style. You could harness a team of slaves to a wagon. Actually, you would need several wagons….many of them just to provide food, water, clothing for the slaves. With such an arrangement, aided by a strong lash, you could lumber across mountain, plain and valley…the slaves carrying you in your sedan chair, hoisted on their shoulders. Then, after setting out from New York…and many months of travel, great sacrifice, much suffering and adventure… perhaps you would reach California. Or maybe not.

Or, taking advantage of the industrial revolution, you could get in your F150 and be there in a couple days of comfortable travel. Who do you have to thank for this marvelous improvement? Who designed the Industrial Revolution? Henry Ford? Andrew Carnegie? Eugenio Barsanti? Or the Baptist lay-preacher, Thomas Newcomen?

Newcomen is credited with being the first to convert heat to useful kinetic energy. He was tinkering…devising a way to power a pump to keep the water out of mines. He heated water. The steam pushed up a piston, and then, switching a valve, the piston reversed, forcing the cooled steam out. Then, the valve switched again and the process repeated itself. Up, down…up, down…add more fuel to the fire and the ‘machine’ will keep pumping.

But who invented the iron he used? The wheel? Who discovered fire? Evolution gives us our world. But it is not a world that anyone designed or created. Instead, we all add to it (or subtract from it)…little by little, and then by sudden, occasional bursts – such as Darwin’s “Origin of the Species.”

Entrepreneurs find a profitable model…or go broke looking for it. Investors carefully place their money, hoping to earn a decent return, and keep investing their money…until it is all gone. Politicians stumble through lies and errors…forcing or enticing people to do things they oughtn’t do…distorting the present…delaying progress… and the Fed (tomorrow!) will use its ‘cunning intellect’ to pretend to know what it can never know and do what it can never do; it will tell us exactly what interest rate the world needs right now. It will not let the credit market ‘fall’ into its natural form; it will give it a shove…Stay tuned."
o
Joel’s Note: “If I have seen further than others,” observed Sir Isaac Newton, “it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.” It was an insight the Founding Fathers of the United States well appreciated. When it came to the establishment of the American republic, those who oversaw its “origins documents” were acutely aware of the lessons of history. Indeed, the ancient world continued to guide and temper their impulses long after those documents were inked and filed.

Wrote Jefferson himself, in a letter to Henry Lee, a half century after the founding… “Men have differed in opinion, and been divided into parties by these opinions, from the first origin of societies; and in all governments where they have been permitted freely to think and to speak. The same political parties which now agitate the US. have existed thro’ all time. Whether the power of the people, or that of the ἄριςτοι [ancient greek for “aristocracy” or “nobility”] should prevail, were questions which kept the states of Greece and Rome in eternal convulsions; as they now schismatize every people whose minds and mouths are not shut up by the gag of a despot…”

From the ancient aristocracy to today’s “rich men north of Richmond,” man’s basic nature remains largely unchanged. As such, history provides a useful roadmap not only for whence we’ve come… but where we’re headed, too.

We alluded to BPR’s shameless affinity for the classics in yesterday’s missive. Indeed, it was a decade or so ago, over an unhurried lunch at our favorite parrilla in Buenos Aires, that Bill conceived the idea of an online community that would rescue the classical texts from dusty libraries and bring them into the refulgent light of the digital age. The resulting project – Classical Wisdom – is still going strong today. Dear readers are kindly invited to check it out, right here on Substack.

As for the evolution of ideas, Dan reminded us this morning that progress is not always linear… and that often, bad ideas trump good ones. Once again, we’re hearing about Peak Oil… only this time, it’s not on the supply side. Demand for fossil fuels is likely to peak this decade, say the “experts,” as the world transitions to something cleaner, cheaper, and abundant. Just what that magical replacement might be, exactly, is not at all clear…But it’s likely to be one giant step backwards for a species highly dependent on reliable, high-density energy.

“It's a big con,” writes Dan. “Reverse engineering the industrial revolution and the use of fossil fuels means a lower quality of life for everyone on the planet.” Ah… just when we think we’ve seen over the distant horizon, we discover our would-be leaders, standing squarely on the shoulders of dwarves. More on the “great energy devolution” to come…"
o
Freely download "De Rerum Natura", by Lucretius, here:

"How It Really Is"

That'll be the day!
"Nationwide, on average, 79% of U.S. adults are literate in 2023.
21% of adults in the US are illiterate in 2023.
54% of adults have a literacy below 6th grade level."

"The problem isn't that Johnny can't read. The problem isn't 
even that Johnny can't think. The problem is that Johnny 
doesn't know what thinking is; he confuses it with feeling."
- Thomas Sowell

"Five percent of the people think; 
ten percent of the people think they think; 
and the other eighty-five percent would rather die than think."
- Thomas Edison

Dan, I Allegedly, "Let the Crime Begin"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly 9/19/23
"Let the Crime Begin"
"Crime is rampant across the country. But this takes the cake. Illinois is the first state to have no cash bail of any kind. This is insane."
Comments here:

"Outrageous Prices At Winn-Dixie! This Is Ridiculous! What's Next?"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 9/19/23
"Outrageous Prices At Winn-Dixie! 
This Is Ridiculous! What's Next?"
"In today's vlog, we are at Winn-Dixie and are noticing some outrageous price increases on groceries! This is not good as grocery prices have already reached an all-time high! It's getting rough out here as more and more families struggle to put food on the table!"
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "This Entire Thing Is Going To Abruptly Stop"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/19/23
"This Entire Thing Is Going To Abruptly Stop
 And You Must Be Prepared For It"
Comments here:
o
o
"Debt to the Penny"
"The Debt to the Penny dataset provides information about the total outstanding public debt and is reported each day. Debt to the Penny is made up of intragovernmental holdings and debt held by the public, including securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. Total public debt outstanding is composed of Treasury Bills, Notes, Bonds, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), Floating Rate Notes (FRNs), and Federal Financing Bank (FFB) securities, as well as Domestic Series, Foreign Series, State and Local Government Series (SLGS), U.S. Savings Securities, and Government Account Series (GAS) securities. Debt to the Penny is updated at the end of each business day with data from the previous business day."

Monday, September 18, 2023

"Alert: Elites Leave Washington; Nuke Event In Ukraine; Emergency Meeting On Food Prices/Shortages"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 9/18/23
"Alert: Elites Leave Washington; Nuke Event In Ukraine; 
Emergency Meeting On Food Prices/Shortages"
Comments here:

"People Aren't Laughing Now; Things Are About To Get Very Painful"

Jeremiah Babe, 9/18/23
"People Aren't Laughing Now; 
Things Are About To Get Very Painful"
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: Runrig, "Running to the Light"

Full screen recommended.
Runrig, "Running to the Light"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"In silhouette against a crowded star field along the tail of the arachnalogical constellation Scorpius, this dusty cosmic cloud evokes for some the image of an ominous dark tower.
In fact, clumps of dust and molecular gas collapsing to form stars may well lurk within the dark nebula, a structure that spans almost 40 light-years across this gorgeous telescopic portrait. Known as a cometary globule, the swept-back cloud, is shaped by intense ultraviolet radiation from the OB association of very hot stars in NGC 6231, off the upper edge of the scene. That energetic ultraviolet light also powers the globule's bordering reddish glow of hydrogen gas. Hot stars embedded in the dust can be seen as bluish reflection nebulae. This dark tower, NGC 6231, and associated nebulae are about 5,000 light-years away."

"We Know..."

"We have not overcome our condition, and yet we know it better. We know that we live in contradiction, but we also know that we must refuse this contradiction and do what is needed to reduce it. Our task as humans is to find the few principles that will calm the infinite anguish of free souls. We must mend what has been torn apart, make justice imaginable again in a world so obviously unjust, give happiness a meaning once more to peoples poisoned by the misery of the century. Naturally, it is a superhuman task. But superhuman is the term for tasks we take a long time to accomplish, that's all.

Let us know our aims then, holding fast to the mind, even if force puts on a thoughtful or a comfortable face in order to seduce us. The first thing is not to despair. Let us not listen too much to those who proclaim that the world is at an end. Civilizations do not die so easily, and even if our world were to collapse, it would not have been the first. It is indeed true that we live in tragic times. But too many people confuse tragedy with despair. Tragedy, D.H. Lawrence said, ought to be a great kick at misery. This is a healthy and immediately applicable thought. There are many things today deserving such a kick."
- Albert Camus

"You Think..."

"You think you will never forget any of this, you will remember it always just the way it was. But you can t remember it the way it was. To know it, you have to be living in the presence of it right as it is happening. It can return only by surprise. Speaking of these things tells you that there are no words for them that are equal to them or that can restore them to your mind. And so you have a life that you are living only now, now and now and now, gone before you can speak of it, and you must be thankful for living day by day, moment by moment, in this presence. But you have a life too that you remember. It stays with you. You have lived a life in the breath and pulse and living light of the present, and your memories of it, remember now, are of a different life in a different world and time. When you remember the past, you are not remembering it as it was. You are remembering it as it is. It is a vision or a dream, present with you in the present, alive with you in the only time you are alive."
~ Wendell Berry

The Poet: Robinson Jeffers, "We Are Those People"

"We Are Those People" (1941)

"I have abhorred the wars and despised the liars,
laughed at the frightened
And forecast victory; never one moment's doubt.
But now not far, over the backs of some crawling years, the next
Great war's column of dust and fire writhes
Up the sides of the sky: it becomes clear that we too may suffer
What others have, the brutal horror of defeat -
Or if not in the next, then in the next - therefore watch Germany
And read the future. We wish, of course, that our women
Would die like biting rats in the cellars,
our men like wolves on the mountain:
It will not be so. Our men will curse, cringe, obey;
Our women uncover themselves to the grinning victors
for bits of chocolate."

- Robinson Jeffers

"It May Be Necessary..."

"You may encounter many defeats, but you must
not be defeated. In fact, it may be necessary to
encounter the defeats, so you can know who you are,
what you can rise from, how you can still come out of it."
- Maya Angelou

The Daily "Near You?"

Alexander City, Alabama, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Life, eh?"

"We said together, wistfully, 'Life, eh?' It says everything without having to say anything: that we all experience moments of joyful or painful reflection, sometimes alone, sometimes sharing laughs and tears with others; that we all know and appreciate that however wonderful and precious life is, it can equally be a terribly confusing and mysterious beast. 'Life, eh?"
- Miranda Hart

Brian Maher, "Rickards Raises Hurricane Flag"

"Rickards Raises Hurricane Flag"
by Brian Maher

"Moans reader Michael R.: “What’s the point of reading these lengthy remarks about the demise of our economy? All I’m seeking is specific stock tips.” A fish prowls the depths in pursuit of lunch. It seeks its own “stock tips” to guide the hunt. It lacks all curiosity of the greater ocean through which it slithers.

Yet we hazard our readers are not simply fish hunting lunch. We hazard they harbor a greater appetite. An appetite - that is - for a greater understanding of the oceanic realm they inhabit. They seek to understand the deeper currents that push them here and pull them there. They seek to understand the formation of tempests that frenzy them. They seek to understand “the big picture.” To which compass point are interest rates drifting? Is the economy sailing into biting recessionary gales? Are financial typhoons taking form? We seek answers to these questions - and we believe you do too.

Neptune Is a Capricious and Inscrutable God: Thus we take our barometric readings. Thus we float our weather balloons. Thus we consult our weather stations. What comes of it all? We often botch the forecast. We are an oceanographer who is - if you’ll forgive the expression - “at sea.” Yet Neptune is a capricious and inscrutable god. His will is not easily divined.

Should we abandon the quest altogether? We do not believe we should. We may place you on hurricane watch. By our own admission, the storm may never blow ashore. Yet what if it does? What if it battens you… rubbles your house… even murders you? Is it not better to prepare - just in case - even if the tempest tacks to sea? Is not the preventive ounce worth its curative pound? The ounce is light. The pound is heavy.

Jim Rickards Issues a Hurricane Watch: Jim Rickards issued his own hurricane watch. Jim telegraphed a warning that the barometric pressure is plunging… the sea is churning… and that within weeks perhaps… another Lehman-like hurricane may barrel ashore: "We are just days from another “Lehman moment.” The same thing happened 15 years ago to the date – when the historic collapse of Lehman Bros. triggered a wave of bank runs all over the country. I had warned a senior member of Congress that something like this might happen just three weeks before it did."

This senior member of Congress failed to heed Jim’s advisory. Few, in fact, did. Yet three weeks later the storm blew in and blew Lehman down. Thus commenced the “Great Financial Crisis.”

And now? While Joe Biden has tried to assure us the banking system is “safe and sound,” all my indicators are pointing to a massive aftershock unlike anything we’ve seen since 2008.
The three largest credit ratings firms in the U.S. are sounding the alarm as well. Moody’s just downgraded 10 large regional banks and has threatened to cut another six banking giants – including Bank of New York Mellon, U.S. Bancorp, State Street and Truist Financial.

Fitch, another agency, recently cut America’s credit rating for the first time since 2011… And is now warning DOZENS of banks may soon suffer the same fate…

And Standard & Poor’s has now followed their lead – downgrading five more banks that are doomed to fail.

When precisely does Jim expect landfall? "This crisis isn’t coming next month, next week or tomorrow…It’s already here. And it’s about to get a lot worse. In fact, The fuse has already been lit on a massive, $3 trillion time bomb that could blow up at any moment. And while our federal overlords have tried to assure us the crisis is contained, dozens, if not HUNDREDS, of banks are about to get wiped out." You may only have days left to prepare.

The Ounce of Prevention and the Pound of Cure: Will Jim’s grim forecast prove accurate? Or is he raising a false storm flag? Or is landfall perhaps months distant - not days or weeks distant - as Jim projects? We do not know. Each outcome is possible.

Yet we return to the advantages of preparation, to the ounce of prevention and its pound of cure. You plywood your windows. You stow emergency provisions. You purchase a power generator. And if the hurricane skirts you altogether? If the winds and rains never besiege you? Your ounce of prevention has cost you comparatively little — some plywood, some foodstuffs, a generator.

The Prepared vs. the Unprepared: Yet what if the tempest actually comes in and waylays you? Your ounce of prevention works its pound of cure. You are equipped. Your windows can withstand the gales, you have abundant rations on hand, your lights are on. You are the envy of your neighbors - your neighbors who failed to prepare. They are wrecked, famished and powerless - literally and figuratively.

You are not. What would they give for a second chance, a chance to step back in time… and purchase their ounce of prevention? Very much we hazard. Yet it is too late. The precious ounce is unavailable at any price. Yet against the banking hurricane Jim forecasts… it is available… at an attractive price.

Will they prove necessary? Again, we do not know. We do not know if landfall is next week, next month or never. Yet they constitute prevention. And they may prove priceless.

“Sometimes Right, Sometimes Wrong… and Always in Doubt” We can only issue our forecasts, secure in the knowledge we may make heavy weather of them. Explains our co-founder, Mr. Bill Bonner:

"We’re often wrong… which leaves us exposed to ridicule as well as regulatory threats.
“You said that stock would go up…” say the critics.
“You said Congress would never go along…”
“You said the economy would be in recession by now…”

When you’re looking into the future, there are an infinite number of things you can be wrong about. Since we’ve been writing for so long, we’ve probably already been wrong about most of them. And we’ll get the rest of them wrong in due course.

But our Dear Readers know we are mortal, just like they are. They don’t expect us to be right all the time. They only expect us to be honest… about what we see and hear and think and know… and to work hard to try to discover tomorrow’s truth before it is mainstream news.

We are out to connect the dots so we can see when to buy stocks… what the Fed will do… what will happen to our economy… or where the country is going… We mock the conceits of the great and the good. We laugh at absurd trends and foolish fads… and at ourselves… And we squint so hard our eyes hurt, desperately trying to catch a tiny glimpse of real truth. And we never forget our humble motto: Sometimes right, sometimes wrong… and always in doubt."

And so here we sit: Sometimes right. Sometimes wrong…Always in doubt."

"Peter Schiff: This Story Will Have A Tragic Ending"

"Peter Schiff: 
This Story Will Have A Tragic Ending"
by Schiffgold

"After the August CPI report showed price inflation heating up again thanks to rising gasoline prices, Peter Schiff appeared with Jesse Kelly on First TV to answer the question: where are we heading? Peter said this story is going to have a tragic ending.

Peter opened the interview by pointing out that the current spate of price inflation had its origins in the 2008 financial crisis. What the government did in response to that crisis – QE1, QE2, QE3 – all of that, plus what we did during COVID, that is the source of all this inflation. And it’s going to continue to get worse as long as we continue to run these massive deficits.”
Peter noted that the US government is currently running budget deficits averaging $2 trillion every year. "This is going to lead to much higher inflation in the future than what we’ve experienced in the past.” Peter also said he thinks the decline in the CPI is over. "I think inflation is going to be a much bigger problem in 2024 than it was in 2023.”

Jesse said it seems like we’re in a death spiral. Peter agreed and said the spiral is even worse than you might think because increasing interest rates contribute to the rise in CPI. Interest rates are a price. And it’s an important price for a lot of companies, just like labor, and rent, and raw materials, companies borrow money to conduct their business, to make capital investments, to expand. A lot of these companies have taken up debt over the years and now the cost of servicing that debt has risen sharply.” Businesses will pass on these rising prices to consumers.

Meanwhile, consumers are making less money. Real incomes fell by 0.5% month-on-month in August. This continues a trend we saw last year when household incomes fell by 2.3%.

So, how does this story end? The story is going to have a tragic ending, unfortunately. We’re going to have a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis. The Fed is going to print money until the dollar collapses. I think that day of reckoning is at hand. I don’t know that it’s tomorrow, but it’s coming sometime soon.”

Peter noted the global move toward de-dollarization. Countries are looking for alternatives to the US dollar. That’s bad news for a US economy that depends on its ability to export its inflation to its trading partners. "As our trading partners move away from the dollar, the dollar is going to fall very fast. Prices are going to rise much faster than they have been. And at some point, it is going to spiral out of control - especially the debt. We have so much debt, and as the interest on the debt really rises, then it puts even more pressure on the Fed to print even more money to buy more bonds to put some kind of cap on how high interest rates go. It just accelerates the cycle. Because what’s driving everybody out of dollars and out of bonds is inflation. And if the Fed has to create even more inflation to stop interest rates from rising, it just creates an even more powerful incentive for everybody who owns Treasuries, or any dollar-denominated debt, to sell it. Then it pushes down the price, rates go up, the Fed has to print even more money, and it ends in a currency crisis. That’s where we’re headed.”

Peter said gold is the biggest threat to the dollar. "That’s what’s going to replace the dollar as the primary monetary reserve asset. The dollar replaced gold. So, gold is just going to take back that mantel.

At one time, the world accepted dollars because they were backed by gold. They were just as good as gold. But that’s not the case anymore. The dollar is just a piece of paper. So, I think the world is going to go back to real money as the basis for the monetary system and all of these fiat currencies will be legitimate currencies again because they will be backed by real money, which will be gold.”

A move back toward a gold standard would level the playing field globally, but it would be difficult for the US. It has become accustomed to issuing the world reserve currency. That’s what enabled us to live beyond our means for all these decades. It’s what enabled these huge trade deficits. It allowed our economy to evolve in the way that it did so that we have this consumer-based spending economy that can’t really survive without the rest of the world propping it up. And that’s what’s going to stop. The world is not going to prop it up anymore because it’s going to move beyond the dollar.” Peter said when that happens, the US will have to rebuild its economy from the bottom up. Americans will have to go back to saving and producing."

"The Coming Collapse Of The Global Ponzi Scheme"

"The Coming Collapse Of The Global Ponzi Scheme"
by George Ford Smith

"It won’t be long before governments around the world, including the one in Washington, self-destruct. Strong words, but anything less would be naïve. As economist Herbert Stein once said, “If something cannot go on forever, it has a tendency to stop.” Case in point: fiat money political regimes. Interventionist economies of the West are in a fatal downward spiral, comparable to that of the Roman Empire in the second century, burdened with unsustainable debt and the antiprosperity policies of governments, especially the Green New Deal.

In the global Ponzi scheme, thin air and deceit substitute for sound money. As hedge-fund manager Mitch Feierstein wrote in Planet Ponzi, “You don’t solve a Ponzi scheme; you end it.” Charles Ponzi and Bernie Madoff "...made some of their investors a whole lot poorer, but the world didn’t come crashing down as a result."

For that‌ - for a Ponzi scheme that would threaten to bankrupt capitalism across the entire Western world‌ - you need people much smarter than Ponzi or Madoff. You need time, you need energy, you need motivation. In a word, you need Wall Street.

But Wall Street alone doesn’t have the strength to deliver a truly cataclysmic outcome. If your ambition is to create havoc on the largest possible scale, you need access to a balance sheet running into the tens of trillions. You need power. You need prestige. You need a remarkable willingness to deceive. In a word, you need Washington.

As Gary North wrote in a brief review of Feierstein’s book, “The central banks have colluded with the national governments in order to fund huge increases of national debt, beyond what can ever be paid off. In other words, [Feierstein] has described government promises as part of a gigantic international Ponzi scheme.”

In a recent interview, Peter Schiff, who was laughed at when he predicted the economic meltdown of 2007–9, said interest on the federal debt alone “will be about a trillion by the end of this year. By the end of next year [it will reach] two trillion dollars - and that’s if interest rates don’t go up. This is a huge debt bomb that’s going to explode.”

Ultra-high corporate and credit card debt, along with bank insolvency sustains his argument for a coming collapse, the polar opposite of Biden’s economic dream. Along with this, Reuters notes that the spread between two- and ten-year Treasuries is at the deepest inversion since 1981. Rarely has an inverted yield curve not signaled a recession.

Can Jerome Powell and his advisors steer the economy into a soft landing? Not this time. “The only landing possible is a crash, where everyone on board dies,” Schiff recently tweeted. "Ponzi and Madoff went to jail for their schemes, but how do you prosecute governments for theirs? Prosecution implies being a part of government. And with rare exceptions such as Ron Paul, those who go into government believe gold is a barbarous relic and the Fed is a good thing that just needs a little government tinkering. So, the guilty will go unpunished, unless public outrage misguidedly turns to nonjudicial violence. The rest will be too busy trying to survive and protect those they care about."

The War on Being Human: A study of history, including US monetary history, makes clear that the state is not in the business of securing our liberty. As the previous nine hundred plus days have made clear, any defense of “liberty” would likely be regarded as hate speech. Instead, we are inundated with the feel-good words of diversity, equity, and inclusion along with the fear-driven campaigns of climate change and killer covid. Challenge any of it and you’re demonized—or worse.

But the state can’t do anything significant without monopolizing money, and the Orwellian central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will be the latest installment to control the monetary system. The new FedNow payment system with its emphasis on user convenience is providing the framework and psychological grooming for CBDCs.

The Shadow Superpower: We can stop this from happening. Two states, Florida and Indiana, have effectively banned CBDCs as money in those states. Other states will likely follow. The government will outlaw cash at some point, but those who use it now are casting a vote against CBDCs.

Many people will turn to barter, some using barter metals, and to the shadow economy. If this sounds desperate, consider how the global black market in 2011 was the world’s fastest-growing economy. Sometimes referred to as System D, it features both the usual, small transactions of flea market trades or workers looking for employment in the parking lots of home improvement stores and also larger, international trades. David Obi, a Nigerian, relying on his cell phone and his own initiative, contacted a Chinese firm to have small diesel-powered generators shipped to his home country, where electric power is often scarce: “Like almost all the transactions between Nigerian traders and Chinese manufacturers, it was also sub rosa: under the radar, outside of the view or control of government, part of the unheralded alternative economic universe of System D.”

Friedrich Schneider, research fellow at Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria, whose expertise is in off-government economies and who coauthored "The Shadow Economy," found that System D is growing faster in many countries than the officially recognized gross domestic product. If System D were an independent nation, it would be the second-largest economy in the world.
Conclusion

The future is undecided, but we can help determine the outcome if we take responsibility for it. Wikipedia defines System D as “a manner of responding to challenges that require one to have the ability to think quickly, to adapt, and to improvise when getting a job done.” In this sense success has always depended on System D, with or without government.

The American term for it is life hack, “any trick, shortcut, skill, or novelty method that increases productivity and efficiency, in all walks of life.” Whatever you call it, it describes a spirit all of humanity needs to adopt if we are to survive the coming collapse of government Ponzi schemes."
o
Related, highly recommended:

"How It Really Is"

 

"We Are..."

 

"On the Nature of the Universe"

"On the Nature of the Universe"
A little classical wisdom for our broad-minded readers...
by Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

"If you possess a firm grasp of these tenets, you will see
That nature, rid of harsh taskmasters, all at once is free
And everything she does, she does on her own, so that gods play no part."
~ "De Rerum Natura", Lucretius

London, England - "On the shelves at Jefferson’s library at Monticello were five dog-eared copies of an amazing book written more than 2,000 years ago. Not the Bible…not the Iliad…nor the Odyssey. It is a book that has fascinated and inspired thinking people for 70 generations…Copernicus, Galileo, Spinoza, Newton, Locke, Montesquieu, Voltaire, Diderot, Hume, Franklin, Wallace…and many others.

Directly or indirectly, Adam Smith drew on it for his “Wealth of Nations”…and even more in his “The Theory of Moral Sentiments.” Charles Darwin’s grandfather, Erasmus Darwin, used it as a model for his own poetry, passing along the insight that changed intellectual life in the Western world. Everything nature does, we paraphrase from above, she does on her own. This is what Darwin tried to demonstrate in his “Origin of the Species.” More recently, Steven Pinker relied heavily on the idea in his popular “The Better Angels of our Nature.”

And, importantly for us, it helps us understand why the Fed cannot really control inflation.

Money, Money, Money: This is, after all, a money-oriented ‘blog.’ While our thoughts and inquiries range far and wide, we also try to keep our eye on what is happening in the money world…and connect the dots, between current trends and events, and the deeper, longer-term tides of human society. Dan made the point on Friday: if you follow only the mainstream press, you will have a very distorted idea of what is really going on. Case in point, this article appeared at Markets Insider on the weekend: "5 common misconceptions about the US's $32 trillion debt mountain."

We read quickly, not wanting to waste time, but curious; the financial press is more likely to peddle misconceptions than to dispose of them. Sure enough, the article is a pot-pourri of error: the debt is not too high…it doesn’t need to be paid off… it’s not bad for the economy…there’s no crisis coming…and everybody does it. Here’s the gist of it:

"The US's $32 trillion debt mountain may not be as bad as it seems."
They’re right! It’s much worse than it seems.

First, the author tells us that paying the interest on the debt is a piece of cake: "It cost the US just $395 billion to service its debt last year, according to the Office of Management and Budget. That's around 1% of last year's GDP."

A Borrowing Binge: Well…yeah…with the lowest interest rates in 5,000 years. The key to understanding the debt is to realize that the ultra-low rates (courtesy of the Fed) lured borrowers to take on more debt than they can carry. When interest rates return to more normal levels…which they surely will…there will be trouble.

That is already happening. Two years ago, the feds could finance trillions of debt at the remarkably low 2-year treasury rate of only 0.22%. The rate went over 5% last week – 20 times more. And the Treasury needs to refinance $7.6 trillion of old debt, plus an estimated $2 trillion of new debt, in the next 12 months.

This borrowing binge by the government is almost guaranteed to keep interest rates up…even if inflation were to fall. It also assures us that investment capital will go to the government, rather than to private, wealth creating businesses. There is only so much time, so much labor, so much energy…and so much capital…available. If it is used to build factories and add services, it increases our wealth. But if it is consumed or wasted on dead-end “investments,” it is simply lost.

“Dead-end investments” is what the feds do better than anyone. Wars…weapons…spying…fighting poverty and drugs…encouraging people not to work… agencies for this…departments for that – resources are squandered, growth rates fall…there are fewer products and services to buy, while the demand for them increases. Result: inflation.

Here’s Bloomberg, on the case: "Fed’s Policy Paradox: Too-Slow Growth Threatens Inflation Fight." "… policymakers and Fed watchers are now giving more attention to a new line of argument, that central banks need to take account of what their actions mean for the supply side of the economy. The implication: Too-high rates could actually undermine the inflation fight, by squelching the benefits of increasing supply - which are just now coming on stream."

Yes, dear reader, you can get price increases from either side: rising demand or falling supply. The feds give us both. So…we move on…back to the book we were telling you about...

Origin Texts: It did not come out of nowhere. It had its antecedents…its forerunners and scouting parties. It was foreshadowed by two famous Greek philosophers, Epicurus and Democritus. The latter introduced an early form of atomic theory; none of Epicurus’s works survived, but he emphasized the ‘here and now’ and how to enjoy it..

The book we refer to was written by a Roman, not a Greek. And it came about at a unique period. Rome conquered Greece after the battle of Corinth in 146 BC. This book was written 100 years later, a special window in history, thought Flaubert, “when gods had ceased to be, and Christ had not yet come…a unique moment…between Cicero and Marcus Aurelius, when man stood alone.” Alone? On our own? No Fed to save us? More to come…"

Joel’s Note: Speaking of origins stories, here we admit to a shameless bias… the BPR team harbors an ill-concealed affinity for the classical texts. No doubt you notice the references bubbling to the surface in our various missives; sirens calling the Fed to shipwreck… the Herculean tasks laid at the feet of a once great nation… Thucydides' Trap lying in wait for an empire facing a “power transition”…

From ancient coin clipping… to hubristic politicos… to Athenian-style democracy (and the death of their beloved Socrates, by vote!)… the ancient world is replete with lessons for our modern times, provided we take the time to study and heed them.

It was a decade or so ago when, over an unhurried lunch at our favorite parrilla down in Buenos Aires, Bill floated the idea of building an online community for classics lovers, a modern publishing house that would bring these dusty tomes out of the public libraries and into the far-reaching light of the digital age. And so, after a few juicy steaks and enough Malbec to conquer a Persian army, we decided to go for it…

As it happens, your Editor-at-Large’s dear wife – Anya Leonard – had attended St. John’s College, Annapolis, the very same Great Books program that Bill’s own children had been steeped in… and the same one that BPR’s macro analyst, Dan Denning, had graduated from out in Santa Fe, New Mexico. In fact, it was Dan who came up with the name of the project that resulted from that very first conversation… It would be called: Classical Wisdom.

And here, we are chuffed to report, it’s still going strong more than a decade on… right here on Substack! Dear readers interested in some of the foundational texts and ideas that help underpin much of our writings in this space are kindly invited to check out Classical Wisdom, here…
"Classical Wisdom"
Bringing Ancient Wisdom for Modern Minds. Subscribe to our FREE newsletter and receive our "How to be Happy: A Guide to Ancient Ethical Philosophy".

o
Freely download "De Rerum Natura", by Lucretius, here:

"Words..."

"Words ought to be a little wild, for they
are the assaults of thoughts on the unthinking."
- John Maynard Keynes

Jim Kunstler, "Boldly Into the Chaos"

"Boldly Into the Chaos"
by Jim Kunstler

“When you give power over law to people who see law only as a weapon with which to get enemies, you destroy the rule of law. That’s what the dumbshit white liberals have done.” 
- Paul Craig Roberts

"Everybody I talk to feels a gnawing tingle of dread in their livers and lights as our world tilts into the season of darkness. The Party of Chaos rules solely on the basis of insults to its citizens. They are certainly trying to provoke something like civil war, something they can label “white supremacy,” as if that would justify declaring a state of siege - an emergency suspension of rights to speak, to move, to assemble, to resist the sticky pseudopods of the malevolent Blob that Washington has become.

These insults are all obvious untruths, and behind them, you can be sure, lurk great crimes. Crimes, of course, call for adjudication and payment. That has been the American way. So, naturally, the Party of Chaos, stolidly based against the American way, has hijacked the law to prevent it from being applied to them. They have spoiled and dishonored every authority in this land and disgracing the law is their ultimate prize.

It’s hard to say which of their insults is the worst, they are all so gross and arrant, but the untruths around the Covid-19 vaccine operation seem the most conspicuously sinister. CDC director Mandy K. Cohen is still pushing these shots for all Americans down to six-month-old babies, despite a freight train of evidence that they are useless for preventing the disease and blatantly harmful, especially for children. She is either very stupid, dangerously wicked, or insane. You decide:
Last autumn, the “uptake” on Covid boosters was 17 percent. That number should not induce a whole lot of confidence this time around among the CDC officials and their masters from Pfizer Inc. Papers are now circulating that say all the Covid variants coming out of the woodwork are lab-made pathogens. The CDC and its sister public health agencies lied extravagantly about the original virus, of course, and now everybody knows it. Who is left to fool in our country? If they move to surreptitiously release something with a much higher fatality rate - to reignite fear in the population - they could easily put their own lives in jeopardy, since its unlikely their labs might as quickly develop a vaccine they could protect themselves with.

Calling for more lockdowns and school closures won’t go over so well this time either, and federal enforcement efforts will be laughed at in the states where a majority is not insane. Working people know they’ll be ruined financially again if the schools are not available for babysitting. Even the states under the sway of mass formation psychosis, such as my New York, will be deeply divided. New Yorkers are sick of the vile automaton Kathy Hochul, even down in New Woke City.

The Ukraine war caper has pretty clearly lost its appeal as a supposed crusade for “democracy.” The yellow and blue flags vanished from the front porches and car bumpers months ago. It was a lie from the get-go that we have any national interest in that sad sack country. Our own government engineered the fiasco, and from every angle it has been a dead loss for all parties on our side. Ukraine has been reduced to a failed state in-waiting; Euroland has sacrificed its industrial economy for nothing; and the USA has squandered its last bits of prestige among other nations in this ignominious game of Lets You and Him Fight. Also, Americans have begun to notice that the billions funneled into Mr. Zelensky’s cadre of neo-Nazis and kleptocrats is money that is not going to places like East Palestine, Ohio, Lahaina, Maui, and the towns along our tortured southern border from Matamoros to Tijuana. Even the people who supposedly elected “Joe Biden” are becoming a little concerned about blundering into World War Three over the mess created by Victoria Nuland & Company.

How did we come to the point that it is now illegal to question the veracity of elections in America? And to charge a former president of the US for doing it? Much as the deck is stacked against Mr. Trump, his enemies have stupidly stuffed that deck full of jokers that are liable to shriek and giggle their way out of court when turned face-up. Judge Tanya Chutkan of the DC District Court is one of the jokers, having already branded Mr. Trump a seditious insurrectionist in the trails of many J-6 demonstrators she sent to jail on longer sentences than the prosecutors even asked for. DA Fani Willis of Fulton County, Ga, is another joker who constructed a career-ending booby-trap for herself, and DA Alvin Bragg of New York County (Manhattan) will not be the one laughing when he’s finally bum-rushed out of his law license.

An interesting fate awaits “Joe Biden” in the months ahead as the revenue stream of the Biden family foreign consulting firm gets audited in a House impeachment Inquiry. And an interesting-er fate awaits the Party of Chaos when it finally has to admit that it doesn’t have a candidate for the 2024 presidential election - at least a candidate anyone has ever heard of. The “president” stands (shakily) bestride a dilemma. He can gracefully bow out of office and avoid the historic humiliation of being unmasked as the crookedest chief executive ever - but if he does that, he loses the ability to pardon the son he so loves in any upcoming indictments, or pardon himself as CEO of Biden Consulting Inc.

Or, just maybe, the Blob will steal into the White House residence some gloomy pre-dawn morn, and settle its quivering, gelatinous endoplasm over “JB’s” face until his struggles with Congress and everything else on this plane of existence come mercifully (for us) to their end."

Dan, I Allegedly, "What Business Will Close Next?"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly AM 9/18/23
"What Business Will Close Next?"
"We are seeing two things that you cannot stay away from. Number one, we are seeing that more businesses are filing bankruptcy than in the last 20 years. We are also seeing personal debt climb to a record, and people have no other choice than to file bankruptcy "
Comments here:

"Grocery Prices Set To Skyrocket In Fall And Winter 2023! This Might Get Rough!"

Adventures With Danno, AM 9/18/23
"Grocery Prices Set To Skyrocket In Fall 
And Winter 2023! This Might Get Rough!"
"We are discussing the recent surge in grocery prices and new reports coming in on more food shortages! It is getting crazy out here as more families are struggling to put food on the table!"
Comments here:

"Economic Market Snapshot 9/18/23"

"Economic Market Snapshot 9/18/23"
Market Data Center, Live Updates:
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
"It's a Big Club, and you ain't in it. 
You and I are not in the Big Club."
- George Carlin
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
Financial Stress Index

"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: creditequity valuationfunding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United Statesother advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Job cuts and much more.
Commentary, highly recommended:
"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
Oh yeah... beyond words. Any I know anyway...
And now... The End Game...
o

Sunday, September 17, 2023

"Gas Prices Are Crushing Consumers; Americans Are Out Of Money And In Big Trouble"

Full screen recommended.
Jeremiah Babe, 9/17/23
"Gas Prices Are Crushing Consumers; 
Americans Are Out Of Money And In Big Trouble"
Comments Here:

Musical Interlude: Spirit Tribe Awakening, "Raise Positive Vibration"

Full screen recommended.
Spirit Tribe Awakening, "Raise Positive Vibration"
"Peaceful, empowering and soothing music and nature to nurture your mind, body, and soul. Supporting and empowering you on your life journey. 528Hz positive energy healing music with 417Hz Solfeggio frequency. These frequencies have a specific healing effect on your subconscious mind. Be kind to yourself, savor this extraordinarily beautiful video. Headphones recommended, not required."

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Like delicate cosmic petals, these clouds of interstellar dust and gas have blossomed 1,300 light-years away in the fertile star fields of the constellation Cepheus. Sometimes called the Iris Nebula and dutifully cataloged as NGC 7023 this is not the only nebula in the sky to evoke the imagery of flowers. Still, this remarkable image shows off the Iris Nebula's range of colors and symmetries in impressive detail. Within the Iris, dusty nebular material surrounds a hot, young star.
The dominant color of the brighter reflection nebula is blue, characteristic of dust grains reflecting starlight. Central filaments of the dusty clouds glow with a faint reddish photoluminesence as some dust grains effectively convert the star's invisible ultraviolet radiation to visible red light. Infrared observations indicate that this nebula may contain complex carbon molecules known as PAHs. The bright blue portion of the Iris Nebula is about six light-years across.”

"Nothing Happens..."

"Nothing happens to anyone that he is not fitted by nature to bear."
- Marcus Aurelius