Monday, June 12, 2023

"This Is The Motive..."

Full screen recommended.
"All men seek happiness. This is without exception. Whatever different means they employ, they all tend to this end. The cause of some going to war, and of others avoiding it, is the same desire in both, attended with different views. The will never takes the least step but to this object. This is the motive of every action of every man, even of those who hang themselves."
- Blaise Pascal

"Millions Can't Pay Rent; You're Living In Fantasyland; People Are Going To Get Wiped Out"

Jeremiah Babe, 6/12/23
"Millions Can't Pay Rent; You're Living In Fantasyland; 
People Are Going To Get Wiped Out"
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The Daily "Near You?"

Lawrenceville, Georgia, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"They Are Never Going To See It Coming, And So They Won't Be Prepared..."

"They Are Never Going To See It Coming, 
And So They Won't Be Prepared..."
There is nothing wrong with being optimistic, 
but blind optimism can be a very dangerous thing.
By Michael Snyder

"The reason why so many of the “experts” were shocked by the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 is because they didn’t want to believe that such a thing could happen. Unfortunately, we are witnessing a similar pattern now. Even though we are absolutely drowning in debt, inflation is wildly out of control, our currency is being transformed into toilet paper, the housing market has started to crash and mass layoffs are being conducted all over the nation, a lot of the “experts” continue to insist that everything is going to be just fine. For example, the following comes from a CNN article entitled “The case for a 2023 US recession is crumbling”

"Many CEOs, investors and economists had penciled in 2023 as the year when a recession would hit the American economy. The thinking was that the US economy would grind to a halt because the Federal Reserve was effectively slamming the brakes to squash inflation. Businesses would lay off workers and inflation-weary Americans would slash spending."

Umm, I hate to interrupt CNN’s wishful thinking, but the reality is that businesses really are laying off workers. In fact, the number of job cuts that have been announced through the first five months of this year is 315 percent higher than the number of job cuts that were announced through the first five months of last year. And more workers are being laid off with each passing day. Earlier today, I was saddened to learn that Spotify has just decided that yet another round of layoffs has become necessary…

"Just a few months after announcing a significant wave of layoffs, Spotify plans to conduct another round of layoffs. This time, the job cuts will affect the podcast division as part of a corporate reorganization. In particular, the company plans to merge Parcast and Gimlet Studios. In an internal memo, Sahar Elhabashi, Spotify’s head of the podcast division, announced that the company was making changes that would lead to a workforce reduction of 2%. This change will affect around 200 jobs and those who are impacted have already received an invitation to talk with someone from the HR department."

Just like in 2008 and 2009, a lot of people that are losing their jobs are falling out of the middle class because they don’t have any sort of a cushion to fall back on. The ranks of the hungry and the homeless are rapidly growing, and this has created an unprecedented crisis in many of our largest cities. The homeless that are truly destitute tend to live in tents, but those that have at least a little bit of money often live in RVs. At this point, it is being estimated that over 11,000 homeless people are living in RVs in Los Angeles County alone…

"There are, by the latest count, more than 11,000 people living in RVs across Los Angeles County. And that number has been rising. The Covid-19 pandemic forced more people into poverty. Some of the RV dwellers have jobs but either don’t want to pay apartment rent, or can’t afford to pay it, in a city where the average one-bedroom apartment costs around $2,500 a month."

Of course wherever there is a homelessness crisis there is almost always a drug crisis. Open air drug markets now operate freely in communities all over the country, and there are some cities where drug abuse is so bad that authorities have completely given up on trying to control it. One of those cities is San Francisco, and as a result real estate prices are falling there much faster than the national average…

"The value of residential real estate in crime-ridden San Francisco has dropped significantly in recent years, with prices dropping by around 16.7%. This contrasts with a more moderate decline of 3.3% in the rest of the country, resulting in a difference of about 13.4 percentage points.

The decline in the housing market in San Francisco has resulted in an additional loss of approximately $260 billion in the value of residential real estate compared to what would have occurred if the city had followed the pattern shown nationally, according to the research center Hoover Institution. Zillow, a real-estate marketplace company, projected that the value of San Francisco’s housing stock was close to $2 trillion before the price drop."

Needless to say, many addicts must steal stuff in order to fund their addictions, and so we have seen crime rates soar over the past several years.

In Chicago, things have gotten so bad that one Walgreens store has actually decided to put almost all of their merchandise “behind staffed counters”…"A Walgreens store in Chicago reportedly has been redesigned to allow customers to browse only two aisles of products – after they pass through anti-theft detectors. The changes at the store on 2 E. Roosevelt Road in the South Loop area put most of the merchandise in aisles behind staffed counters, which customers can shop digitally through kiosks, according to Block Club Chicago."

Many other retailers are shutting down stores in cities such as Chicago, San Francisco and Portland permanently. Our society is melting down right in front of our eyes, but don’t worry. CNN says that everything is going to be just fine. You believe them, don’t you?

The Chinese certainly aren’t buying it. In recent months they have been stockpiling enormous amounts of gold… "China added to its gold reserves for a sixth straight month, extending a flurry of purchases as central banks around the world expand their holdings of bullion amid escalating geopolitical and economic risks. China raised its gold holdings by about 8.09 tons in April, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Sunday. Total stockpiles now sit at about 2,076 tons, after the nation increased reserves by about 120 tons in the five months through March."

Central banks have purchased large amounts of gold in the past year to diversify assets, as well as to protect reserves from the impact of a weakening dollar and rampant inflation. The reason why the Chinese are stockpiling gold is because they can see that a global economic crisis is coming. And everyone else should be able to see it too.

Conditions in the short-term are going to steadily get worse, and in the long-term they are going to get really bad. But most Americans are just going to continue to trust our politicians and the “experts” on television that are assuring them that we are going to be able to avoid a major meltdown somehow. So they aren’t going to do anything to get prepared, and in the end they will be absolutely blindsided by an economic tsunami that they were absolutely convinced would never come."

"Life, eh?"

"We said together, wistfully, 'Life, eh?' It says everything without having to say anything: that we all experience moments of joyful or painful reflection, sometimes alone, sometimes sharing laughs and tears with others; that we all know and appreciate that however wonderful and precious life is, it can equally be a terribly confusing and mysterious beast. 'Life, eh?'"
- Miranda Hart

"Geography Is Destiny"

"Geography Is Destiny"
by Brian Maher

"If you seek understanding of a nation’s foreign policy - and its political orientation - please consult a map. That is because the map - nine times of 10 - will yield you your answer. The map makes a mockery of theory. See the map and the scales will then go falling from your eyes. The map clarifies.

Why did Germany pick two mighty fights last century? Why is neighboring Switzerland so docile? Why is Russia so given to paranoia? Why did liberty sink root in the fertile political soil of Great Britain and its New World castoffs? Again, the map supplies the answers. Let us first consider the aforesaid Germany…

Naked Upon the North European Plain: Germany inhabits the North European Plain. This plain is a defenseless and nearly infinite expanse stretching from the English Channel in the West clear through to Russia’s Ural Mountains in the East. The geography is a massively extended pancake. Its flatness affords Germany little natural defense. Thus Germany stands exposed, naked upon the North European Plain.

To her southwest lies formidable France. To her east snarls the menacing Russian bear. Hence she is squeezed between the French and Russian vise, squeezed between two rivals. A conundrum!

Germany’s 1871 unification - with its vast military and industrial potential - alarmed both France and Russia. Sandwiched between them both, this French and Russian alarm in turn alarmed Germany. What if they leagued together… and besieged her from two sides? It is no exaggeration to argue that The Great War and its 1939 sequel represented German efforts to solve the riddle - to escape the vise grip. Historians decry the Kaiser and the moustached Austrian corporal for initiating both conflagrations. They might first blame the German geography.

Geography and Liberty: What about neighboring Switzerland? Why does she lack the bloodlusting aggression of her Teutonic neighbor? Again, geography holds the answer. Switzerland is heavily alpine, and famously so. And mountains are murder on marauders. These Alps form very high walls, behind which the Swiss can shelter. Switzerland has been trespassed by foreign armies, it is true. Yet the geographical explanation for her listless nonaggression remains valid. Is it any wonder then that liberty flourished so beautifully in Switzerland?

Unlike exposed-on-two sides Germany… vulnerable upon the North European Plain… Switzerland’s alpine defenses largely relieve it of invasion fears. In that geography liberty can plant itself. A people situated therein enjoys the luxury of peaceful pursuits under liberty’s reign. Liberty is unlikely to plant itself in a land perpetually subject to invasion. This land’s residents cannot afford the luxury of liberty. They must be forever on watch. They must adopt a more collective orientation. Again, geography forms a heavy influence. Shall we consider the Russian example?

The Mongols, the French, the Germans, Oh My: Like Germany, Russia sits on the open North European Plain. This of course exposes her to western invasion. Messieurs Bonaparte and Hitler exploited fully this vulnerability - the former in 1812 - the latter in 1941.

And to the east? Russia’s nearly infinite steppes stretch clear through to Mongolia. For what is Mongolia best known? Genghis Khan and the Golden Horde of marauding horsemen who terrorized Eurasia. Crossing these grassy seas, Mongol invaders besieged and conquered Russia. Thus Russia stands vulnerable to invasion from both east and west alike. History has demonstrated this fact to high effect.

Is it any wonder then why Russia appears so paranoid of territorial transgression? Is it any wonder why Russia is so jealous of its influence over Ukraine - and why the prospect of Ukrainian absorption into a western military alliance freezes Russia’s blood? We hazard it is no wonder whatsoever. This paranoia springs from Russian history. And Russian history has been written largely by geography. Let us now take up a geographical consideration of the United States…

God Smiles Upon the United States: God filled two oceans - Atlantic to the right, Pacific to the left - to moat it off from marauders. Russia may have its “General Winter,” it is true. The abovesaid Bonaparte and Hitler can attest to his superior generalship. Yet Russia’s General Winter is nothing against Admirals Atlantic and Pacific of the United States Navy. They keep any invader at length.

Meantime, God emplaced two geopolitical blanks against American land borders, two punchless bantams. One squats to the north, Canada. One sits to the south, Mexico. Imagine a cat bordered north and south by mice. That is the American position - a cat bordered by two mice.

God furthermore blessed the United States with vast tracts of fertile, bountiful land… an extended capillary system of internal waterways… natural harbors from which to send things out… and to take things in. What other nation has enjoyed such natural, God-granted riches? None can approach it. “God has a special providence for fools, drunkards and the United States of America,” concluded Germany’s Otto von Bismarck.

All available evidence indicates it is true. And of these God-blessed categories, we conclude God has most blessed the United States of America. She has absorbed more divine favor than the most foolish fool or the drunkest drunkard.

God’s Sense of Humor: Has God given the United States a Baltimore… a Detroit… a Cleveland? Has He populated its capital with rogues, rascals, cadges, chiselers, grifters and swindlers, with fools and drunkards? Well, friends, maybe He has. We must conclude that He has a mischievous, even puckish sense of humor, this God. He delights in pulling noses. Yet the central fact remains: He has nonetheless showered America with such immense natural extravagance.

In quiet moments, often in the small hours of night, we often marvel…Why are we so fortunate as to reside in this Eden, this El Dorado, this Elysium? Countless others in the world’s various hells are infinitely more deserving. But to proceed…

Much like Switzerland, the American geography sprouts people free to focus on freedom. Of course these people are free to make jackasses of themselves. They often do. But let it go for now. America’s liberty-leaning she shares with her mother, Great Britain. And again, here geography offers us insight.

English Liberty Because of the English Channel: The English Channel has proven an excellent moat. When was England last invaded? 1066? It is no surprise then that Great Britain gave us the Magna Carta. Its geography affords a freedom against invasion - and like Switzerland, an orientation toward political liberality.

Geography likewise blesses the Commonwealth it hatched. New Zealand is an island nation and Australia is a continent. Neither faces foreign harassment. And both like to talk about liberty (whether they mean it or not. Their COVID-era raids upon liberty were among the most extravagant on Earth). Would Great Britain or any of its offshoots soak themselves in liberty if their geographies were different? We hazard they would not. Imagine any of them sharing the German geography or the Russian geography. Their orientations would be more German or Russian than English, American, New Zealander or Australian.

We must conclude that a map will teach you far more about this world than a groaning bookcase of encyclopedias will teach you about this world. Is demographics destiny? Well then, geography is destiny. Close the book, we say - and open a map."

"How It Really Is"

 

Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 6/12/23

Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 6/12/23
"What Could Russia Demand To End Ukraine War? 
Larry Johnson, for CIA"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Hindustan Times, 6/12/23
"Russia Blows Up Ukrainian S-300 Radar Station; 
Zelensky's Men Claim Success In Four Villages"
"Russia's small weapon, the Lancet drone, has become a big headache for Ukraine. Russia is using these drones to hunt down and destroy Kyiv's weapons, like the Leopard main battle tanks. According to reports, all the German Leopard tanks were bombed using Lancet drones. Not just the "mighty" Leopards, but U.S.-supplied Bradley fighting vehicles and French AMX-10RC units were wiped out on the battlefield with Russian Lancet drones. This intensification in drone usage marks a shift in the Russian Army's tactics. Russia's focus has been shifted to the neutralisation of Kyiv's modern armoured units. The Russians are hunting and destroying these western weapons due to their advanced capabilities. The destruction of these advanced western weapons proves that Kyiv is ill-prepared while Russia's wargame under Vladimir Putin is unmatched at the moment."
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Hindustan Times, 6/12/23
"Russia Bombed 'Mighty' Leopards Using This Weapon - 
All About Putin’s 'Game-Changer' Drone"
"Russia's small weapon, the Lancet drone, has become a big headache for Ukraine. Russia is using these drones to hunt down and destroy Kyiv's weapons, like the Leopard main battle tanks. According to reports, all the German Leopard tanks were bombed using Lancet drones. Not just the "mighty" Leopards, but U.S.-supplied Bradley fighting vehicles and French AMX-10RC units were wiped out on the battlefield with Russian Lancet drones. This intensification in drone usage marks a shift in the Russian Army's tactics. Russia's focus has been shifted to the neutralization of Kyiv's modern armored units. The Russians are hunting and destroying these western weapons due to their advanced capabilities. The destruction of these advanced western weapons proves that Kyiv is ill-prepared."
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"Permanent Ruin"

"Permanent Ruin"
War, inflation and the familiar path to the graveyard of empires...
by Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

Youghal, Ireland - "Making life more interesting for cynical observers of politics and markets, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is running for president. He is the first threat to the bi-partisan empire agenda in more than half a century. How serious this challenge is remains to be seen. But judging from the efforts to discredit him, the elite are taking no chances.

First, we set the stage. Here’s the Committee for the Responsible Federal Budget: "The Deficit Was $2.1 Trillion Over Past Year." "…up 50 percent from the $1.4 trillion deficit in Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 and more than twice as large as the deficit prior to the beginning of the pandemic. The 12-month rolling deficit is also $170 billion higher than it was last month, thanks to a $236 billion deficit in May of 2023, compared to $66 billion last May. Compared to a year ago, total nominal spending is up 11 percent to $6.6 trillion and revenue is down 6 percent to $4.5 trillion.

As a share of the economy, deficits have totaled 8.1 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over the past year, over three times the historical average of 2.5 percent and three percentage points higher than 2019."

War and Inflation: At least half of that deficit comes from something that does Americans no apparent good – the US empire. RFK, Jr, proposes to trim it back. He is “nuts,” says HotAir. He’s an “eccentric,” says SLATE. “Lunacy,” says the Daily Beast. “Wacky conspiracy theories,” says Cleveland Magazine. Here’s Robert Reich, a former Secretary of Labor…a cretin who is reliably wrong about everything: "Were it not for his illustrious name, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would be just another crackpot in the growing number of bottom-feeding right-wing fringe politicians seeking high office." Even his own family says Kennedy is “tragically wrong”…according to Politico.

We have no doubt that RFK, Jr. is wrong about a lot of things, but we also doubt that he is wrong about everything…and perhaps not about the most obvious threat the US faces. And since we have a soft spot for diehards, lost causes, and underdogs…we will look closer.

“Inflation,” wrote Hemingway, “is the first panacea of a mismanaged government. War is the second. Both bring a temporary prosperity. Both bring a more permanent ruin.” We’re not sure Hemingway had them in the right order. Sometimes war leads inflation. Sometimes it is the other way around. But the two tend to go together, like rats and plague, until a country is laid low.

Far Flung Claptrap: Not that we are making a prediction. We’re just adding two plus two. And the expense of maintaining a far flung empire… along with the delusional claptrap that accompanies a degenerate empire (sanctions, wars, trade barriers, prohibitions, tariffs) may be more than we can afford.

When attacked in a real war, a nation’s people rally to buy ‘war bonds’ to support their ‘boys in uniform.’ But few people want to pay real money so the military can attack some godforsaken country in a ‘war of choice.’ Few people willingly fatten Raytheon’s profit margins. And who really wants to pay good money to kill Syrians, Iraqis, Iranians, Serbians, Somalis, etc? Some do. But not many.

That is why empires cannot be financed by taxation alone; people won’t want to pay for them. Like almost all government programs, ‘wars of choice’ are a racket, meant to enrich and empower the few at the expense of the many. Elites readily turn to inflation to finance them. Then, both inflation…and the empire itself…take on lives of their own. Stay tuned."
o
Joel’s Note: Even as the size and cost of the federal government balloons to record historic levels… many voters are keen to see the beast grow even larger. Yes, you read that correctly. A recent poll by the folks at the Pew Research Center found that about half (49%) of Americans say they want a bigger federal government providing more (ahem…) “services.” The same survey found that more than half (52%) of Americans thought the government should be “doing more” to solve problems, whatever that means. And more than four in ten (43%) of respondents said they also wanted a larger military, while only 17% said they would like to see the size of the military reduced. (38% reckon it’s “just about right.”)

How to pay for all all these guns ‘n’ butter programs? Tax the rich, of course! (And the companies they’ve built.) About two-thirds of Americans (65%) say that tax rates on large businesses and corporations should be raised. A somewhat similar share (61%) support raising tax rates on household incomes over $400,000.

Whether it’s on warfare or welfare… it’s so easy to spend other people’s money. But as we’ve pointed out in this space before, even if the federal government could somehow “eat the rich,” taxing every billionaire from sea to shining sea 100% of their wealth… the windfall wouldn’t be enough to cover a fraction of the government’s outgoing expenses. The money’s gotta come from somewhere else.

Where does that leave the big spenders in D.C.? Cutting back and trimming porky programs? Unlikely. Here’s Tom Dyson, outlining the situation to BPR members in last week’s research note…"Here at Bonner Private Research, our thesis is simple. They inflated a gigantic debt bubble by suppressing interest rates, printing money and cajoling investors to speculate. There were many ramifications to this crazy experiment. But the biggest, most important one – from my perspective as a macro investment strategist – is that the U.S. government developed a terrible spending addiction and went way too far into debt.

Now the U.S. government’s only reasonable way out is to default on its debts by watering down the value of the loans creditors hold through a process economists sometimes call “financial repression.” Put simply, financial repression means the government will coerce its creditors into holding its debt, and then it will try to pay a negative interest rate on that debt, chipping away -3% or -5% a year, until its debt burden has shrunk to more manageable levels.

The only other alternative is some kind of chaotic collapse of the system. I just don’t consider that likely at this stage, although there may be some mini-panics along the way that help rationalize the money printing. (The markets are fragile, so you can never rule out some unexpected event triggering a chaotic collapse, even if the authorities would rather manage the decline in an orderly fashion.)

Otherwise, debasement and negative interest rates is the only way. The Feds will gradually erode the dollar’s purchasing power through inflation while they keep interest rates below the rate of inflation… and they’ll do it carefully and deceitfully so creditors don’t get spooked and bolt."

"It's All Elon's Fault"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly 6/12/23
"It's All Elon's Fault"
"Commercial real estate is a very real problem. Goldman Sachs steps forward and says that Elon musk is contributing to the downward spiral of commercial real estate. That is ridiculous."
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Jim Kunstler, "We’re Not Finished"

"We’re Not Finished"
By Jim Kunstler

“You give me a piece of ground and a sword and I am going to take back this country with your help and the help of all the homeless Democrats and Republicans who are Americans first.” 
- Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

"If you’re wondering why our country is lost in lunatic raptures of lawless Lawfare and futile MAGAry, it’s because our economy has already collapsed, and our culture and politics with it downstream have also collapsed into spectacular degeneracy. It has already happened. Maybe you don’t know it.

The business model is broken. We’re a shadow of the industrial economy that won a great war and enjoyed a boisterous peace. You can’t replace ball bearing factories with theme parks and hedge funds. Sorry. The full faith and credit of the USA is not embodied in those frivolities, so our money is losing its mojo fast.

But get this: we will go on. This is not the end of the world or the end of history. It is the end of an era. Believe it or not, the economy will fix itself, it just won’t be what it was in 1957. It won’t be what the techno-supremacists think, either. (You need a dependable electric grid to run all those server farms and the apps they serve, and the AI supposedly looming.) It will fix itself because when things fail, as they are doing now, a lot of opportunities will open up to do things differently, even very differently.

When the chain stores fail along with their twelve-thousand-mile supply lines, Americans will figure out how to find stuff, make stuff, move stuff, and sell stuff at a smaller scale, maybe back on your Main Street (if it’s still there). There will be a lot less stuff, of course. But it may be enough stuff, and some of you will be busy making stuff of some kind. Imagine an economy where practically everybody has a useful role to play. Do you know how much more important it is to lead a purposeful, acrtive life of than to be lost in leisure and anomie with more stuff than you know what to do with? Which is where we’re at now, even for many who are statistically “poor.”

When the Happy Motoring colossus tweaks out, we’ll spend less time moving around and more time doing useful things, staying put around the places where we live. We’d be lucky if we could keep some railroads going, but the prospects are not great for that now. Sorry, we blew it. Should have re-started that project in 1970 when the handwriting was on the wall. (We made a lot of bad choices.) Cars and trains require elaborate networks of many interdependent technologies all integrated smoothly at the giant scale - oil, steel, plastics, electronics - and all of that is disintegrating. Pretty soon, you can forget about airplanes, too. That leaves… what? Yes, boats and horses. I know… it sounds inconceivable. Wait for it.

When our grotesque medical racketeering matrix fails, doctors will practice medicine at smaller scale, probably without advanced pharmaceuticals and techno-diagnostics. They’ll open small local clinics while zombies squat in the broken mega-hospitals. You’ll have to pay in cash, whatever form that comes in. You’ll have to take care of yourself, too, but there will be a whole lot less enticing, engineered, toxic crap available to stuff into your body - Froot Loops, Hot Pockets - and the food markets won’t be all that super. There will certainly be less food altogether, but there will be fewer of us to feed, and more of that fewer-of-us will be busy producing that food, one way or another.

That’s the reality I see coming. As you’ve seen vividly, the journey from where we were in, say, the year 2000, to where we’re going has been psychologically disordering at the mass scale. These days, people who ought to know better express ideas that would have gotten them laughed out the room in 1999. The catch is that few of you know that this mass disordering grew out of fear of the journey. It was a phenomenon of infectious mass anxiety over something only dimly apprehended. You just thought it was about bad people.

You’re now faced with the question: how to avoid committing suicide, directly or inadvertently, personally or as a whole society, slowly or quickly? - and its corollary, how to get through the madness in the meantime? Politics happen whether you pay attention to it or not. Politics is concerned with how a society navigates through history. Today, it seems that either A) somebody is steering badly; B) Nobody is steering; or C) some outside force has commandeered the ship’s wheel and is steering for us.

Any way you look at that, we need somebody to steer. Mr. Trump has volunteered to try doing it again. The first time, forces in every quarter of American power set out to bushwhack, sandbag, harass, hector, and hound him. In the process, they just about destroyed the rule of law. Then they simply dis-elected him surreptitiously, something you’re not supposed to say, but there it is, like so much meat on the table. Now they’re trying to hoo-rah him into jail. Whatever you think of his, er, complex personality, you must admire his perseverance through adversity. If he somehow manages to wriggle through the present obstacle course of Lawfare chicanery, his next term would be an extravaganza of retribution. The spectacle would provide much satisfaction but, in the end, it would just be a sideshow, and it is not the same thing as taking care of business.

“Joe Biden,” of course, the man who is not really even there, is only pretending to run for reelection, or at least a coterie around the Oval Office is pretending for him while they try to figure out what to do. They’re in an awful quandary. They hold all the levers of power and they have no other credible candidate, not a living soul, in their own official hatchery.

Outside of that ghastly edifice, Robert F. Kennedy is making a determined flanking move, an end-run near the sidelines. The Democratic Party in all its florid and mendacious lunacy is pretending to not notice him, especially their praetorian news media that is the vector for America’s mass mental illness. Mr. Kennedy put it so simply in April when he announced a run to preside over the stupendous mess that is our government. He said his mission is an experiment to see what happens when you tell Americans the truth. Hold that thought. How long has it been since you thought anything like that was possible?

There’s a broad-based assumption across the land, derived from our fading prime artform, the movies, that Americans can’t handle the truth. Like so much else in our national life, that is probably erroneous… fake truth. And what is so striking in Mr. Kennedy’s performance so far is an absence of fakery. It’s more than refreshing, it’s… startling. Makes you blink, a little bit. Makes you remember what it’s like to not be lied-to incessantly. Makes you want to see more of it because it gives you strength when you thought you were finished. Get this now: our world is changing, and deeply, but we’re not finished."

"Gregory Mannarino, AM 6/12/23"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 6/12/23
"Forget Aliens! The Next 'Crisis' Has Already 
Been Chosen, Are You Prepared For It?"
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Related:
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Stansberry Research, 6/12/23
"Alien Threats A Facade to Justify 
Spending Bonanza Warns Edward Dowd"
“An alien threat is a government spending bonanza,” claims Edward Dowd, founding partner of Phinance Technologies. He also warns that central bank digital currencies could give the government more control over people’s money and freedom, adding more economic chaos to today's bear market. And as economic conditions worsen, the U.S. dollar is “at an endgame” and the government would need to introduce a new financial system, he explains. In order to survive this ongoing turmoil, Dowd advises investors to seek opportunities in cash. “People at the maximum amount of fear will want to sell everything. You have to fight that fear,” he claims. Finally, he says that de-dollarization is unlikely to happen given the dollar’s dominance in global trade. “So the dollar system, if it fails, will fail up, meaning it will destroy the rest of the globe before it destroys us,” he concludes."
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"Economic Market Snapshot 6/12/23"

   

"Economic Market Snapshot 6/12/23"
Market Data Center, Live Updates:
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
"It's a Big Club, and you ain't in it. 
You and I are not in the Big Club."
- George Carlin
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
Financial Stress Index

"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: creditequity valuationfunding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United Statesother advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Job cuts and much more.
Commentary, highly recommended:
"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
Oh yeah... beyond words. Any I know anyway...
And now... The End Game...
o

Sunday, June 11, 2023

"The Greatest Car Market Crash Of Our Lifetime Has Begun And Auto Prices Will Plummet 90%"

Full screen recommended.
Investing Future With Clayton Morris 6/11/23
"The Greatest Car Market Crash Of Our Lifetime
Has Begun And Auto Prices Will Plummet 90%"

"An unprecedented tidal wave of colossal proportions is about to hit the shores of the car market. Experts are referring to this as the most significant car price cataclysm in our living memory. The storm clouds have been gathering for the past three years, leading to an unparalleled auto price bubble. An excess supply is poised to deluge the market, while consumer demand is contracting. The current sky-high prices? They're like a house of cards in the face of a hurricane. Absolutely untenable.

Today, we're going to delve into the heart of this crisis. We'll shine a light on those vehicles that have already taken a nosedive in price this year. More importantly, we're going to arm you with the knowledge to protect your finances.It's not a matter of if this car price earthquake will hit. The question is when. For a while now, we've seen car prices, both old and new, ascending like a rocket. Dealer markups have been a rocket booster, and the scarcity of those tiny yet essential semiconductor chips has pressed the brakes on production. Auto loan defaults have climbed the ladder to an all-time high, and negative equity is spreading through the industry like wildfire. This is a time bomb waiting to explode, threatening to toss the car market into a turmoil and potentially triggering a domino effect on the entire US economy. The middle-class American dream could be hit hard, leaving nothing but disillusionment and financial voids. 

Sounds like a grim scene from a dystopian movie, right? Well, the US Federal Reserve's latest data only adds to the intrigue. Serious delinquencies, the kind where payments are lagging 90 days or more, have soared to heights unseen since the harrowing financial crisis that gripped 2008 and 2009. The climax intensifies for those under 30, as they've seen delinquency rates rocketing in the last six months more than any other time in the past two decades. Edmunds, suggests that average negative equity in auto trade-ins saw a 29% jump in the final act of 2022. Moving into 2023, this equity gap continued its uphill journey, hitting a 15-year high.

Reports are streaming in from all corners of the country. Wholesale car prices are on a steep downhill slope, with the number-crunchers at Mannheim Consulting predicting a 9% skid for new models and a hair-raising 26% plunge for used cars. Now, when wholesale prices nosedive, retail prices follow suit, parachuting down to more manageable levels. April saw the average price of a new car dip below the sticker price for the first time in almost two years. Mannheim also revealed that the rocketing prices have hit the ceiling. In the two-year period between January 2021 and January 2023, used car prices revved up by an extraordinary 52%, while new cars accelerated by nearly 28%. In the same time frame, the median household income in the U.S. only increased by 13%. And let's not forget inflation. When we factor that in, the increase in incomes shrinks to a paltry 7.1%. 

Put simply, in this rollercoaster economy, the affordability of used cars nosedived by nearly 40%, and new cars became 15% less affordable. In a marketplace where consumers are being priced out faster than a Ferrari on the freeway, a market crash is inevitable. The question isn't if, but when. Market analysts have already sounded the alarm, and a significant correction is already taking shape. But brace yourselves folks, because the upcoming market collapse is set to dwarf anything we've seen before, even outdoing the auto market crisis of 2008. The Fed, in their bid to wrestle inflation, pushed rates to a peak not seen since 2007. As a result, lenders put the pedal to the metal, cranking their auto loan rates up nearly 25%, from 8.22% in 2021 to 10.26% in 2022, according to the Experian State of Automotive Finance Report for Q4. The first shots of the price war have been fired in the EV sector. We expect this to ripple into the combustion engine segment by the second half of 2023. The biggest cannonball so far?"
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"Denial Is Your Biggest Economic Threat, Take Action Now; Port Of Seattle Closed"

Jeremiah Babe, 6/11/23
"Denial Is Your Biggest Economic Threat, 
Take Action Now; Port Of Seattle Closed"
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Musical Interlude: Peder B. Helland, "Beautiful Relaxing Music"

Full screen recommended.
"Beautiful Relaxing Music - 
Calming Piano & Guitar Music"
"Beautiful relaxing music by Soothing Relaxation. Enjoy calming piano and
guitar music composed by Peder B. Helland, set to stunning nature videos."

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Light-years across, this suggestive shape known as the Seahorse Nebula appears in silhouette against a rich, luminous background of stars. Seen toward the royal northern constellation of Cepheus, the dusty, obscuring clouds are part of a Milky Way molecular cloud some 1,200 light-years distant. 
Click image for larger size.
It is also listed as Barnard 150 (B150), one of 182 dark markings of the sky cataloged in the early 20th century by astronomer E. E. Barnard. Packs of low mass stars are forming within, but their collapsing cores are only visible at long infrared wavelengths. Still, the colorful stars of Cepheus add to this pretty, galactic skyscape."

“Earth Prayer”

“Earth Prayer”

“Grandfather, Great Spirit, once more behold me on earth and lean to hear my feeble voice. You lived first, and you are older than all need, older than all prayer. All things belong to you – the two-legged, the four-legged, the wings of the air, and all green things that live. You have set the powers of the four quarters of the earth to cross each other. You have made me cross the good road and road of difficulties, and where they cross, the place is holy. Day in, day out, forevermore, you are the life of things.

    Hey! Lean to hear my feeble voice.
    At the center of the sacred hoop
    You have said that I should make the tree to bloom.
    With tears running, O Great Spirit, my Grandfather,
    With running eyes I must say
    The tree has never bloomed.
    Here I stand, and the tree is withered.
    Again, I recall the great vision you gave me.
    It may be that some little root of the sacred tree still lives.
    Nourish it then,
    That it may leaf
    And bloom,
    And fill with singing birds!
    Hear me, that the people may once again
    Find the good road
    And the shielding tree.

The Six Grandfathers have placed in this world many things, all of which should be happy. Every little thing is sent for something, and in that thing there should be happiness and the power to make happy. Like the grasses showing tender faces to each other, thus we should do, for this was the wish of the Grandfathers of the World.”

- Black Elk, Oglala Sioux

Chet Raymo, “Not Known, Because Not Looked For”

“Not Known, Because Not Looked For”
by Chet Raymo

“A reader shared with us those well-known lines of T. S. Eliot (“Little Gidding”). It is not quite what Eliot is up to, but I was reminded of some lines of Pascal that I shared here several years ago: “Scientific learning is composed of two opposites which nonetheless meet each other. The first is the natural ignorance that is man’s lot at birth. The second is represented by those great minds that have investigated all knowledge accumulated by man only to discover at the end that in fact they know nothing. Thus they return to the same fundamental ignorance they had thought to leave. Yet this ignorance they have now discovered is an intellectual achievement. It is those who have departed from their original condition of ignorance but have been incapable of completing the full cycle of learning who offer us a smattering of scientific knowledge and pass sweeping judgments. These are the mischief makers, the false prophets.” (“Pensees” V:327)

It took almost three centuries for Pascal’s remarkable insight to become the common opinion of scientists. The 20th-century philosopher Karl Popper expressed it this way: “The more we learn about the world, and the deeper our learning, the more conscious, specific, and articulate will be our knowledge of what we do not know, our knowledge of our ignorance. For this, indeed, is the main source of our ignorance- the fact that our knowledge can be only finite, while our ignorance must necessarily be infinite.”

It is an odd, unsettling thought that the culmination of the scientific quest - the long slow gathering of reliable empirical knowledge of the world- should be confirmation of how little we understand about the universe we live in. A willingness to say “I don’t know” is a prerequisite of scientific discovery. Only in the silence of acknowledged ignorance can we hear - half hear - the thing that calls us to attend."

"When Idiocy Becomes Hardwired"

"When Idiocy Becomes Hardwired"
by Jeff Thomas

"At this point, virtually all of us over the age of forty have encountered enough "snowflakes" (those Millennials who have a meltdown if anything they say or believe is challenged) to understand that, increasingly, young people are being systemically coddled to the point that they cannot cope with their "reality" being questioned.

The post-war baby boomers were the first "spoiled" generation, with tens of millions of children raised under the concept that, "I don’t want my children to have to experience the hardships that I faced growing up."

Those jurisdictions that prospered most (the EU, US, Canada, etc.) were, not coincidentally, the ones where this form of childrearing became most prevalent. The net result was the ’60s generation – young adults who could be praised for their idealism in pursuing the peace movement, the civil rights movement, and equal rights for women. But those same young adults were spoiled to the degree that many felt that it made perfect sense that they should attend expensive colleges but spend much of their study time pursuing sex, drugs, and rock and roll. Flunking out or dropping out was not seen as a major issue and very few of them felt any particular guilt about having squandered their parents’ life savings in the process.

The boomer generation then became the yuppies as they hit middle age, and not surprisingly, many coddled their own children even more than they themselves had been coddled. As a result of ever-greater indulgence with each new generation of children, tens of millions of Millennials now display the result of parents doing all they can to remove every possible hardship from their children’s experience, no matter how small.

Many in their generation never had to do chores, have a paper route, or get good grades in order to be given an exceptional reward, such as a cell phone. They grew to adulthood without any understanding of cause and effect, effort and reward.

Theoretically, the outcome was to be a generation that was free from troubles, free from stress, who would have only happy thoughts. The trouble with this ideal was that, by the time they reached adulthood, many of the critical life’s lessons had been missing from their upbringing. In the years during which their brains were biologically expanding and developing, they had been hardwired to expect continued indulgence throughout their lives. Any thought that they had was treated as valid, even if it was insupportable in logic.

And, today, we’re witnessing the fruits of this upbringing. Tens of millions of Millennials have never learned the concept of humility. They’re often unable to cope with their thoughts and perceptions being questioned and, in fact, often cannot think outside of themselves to understand the thoughts and perceptions of others.

They tend to be offended extremely easily and, worse, don’t know what to do when this occurs. They have such a high perception of their own self-importance that they can’t cope with being confronted, regardless of the validity of the other person’s reasoning. How they feel is far more important than logic or fact.

Hypersensitive vulnerability is a major consequence, but a greater casualty is Truth. Truth has gone from being fundamental to being something "optional" – subjective or relative and of lesser importance than someone being offended or hurt.

Of course, it would be easy to simply fob these young adults off as emotional mutants – spiteful narcissists – who cannot survive school without the school’s provision of safe spaces, cookies, puppies, and hug sessions. Previous generations of students (my own included) were often intimidated when presented with course books that had titles like Elements of Calculus and Analytic Geometry. But such books had their purpose. They were part of what had to be dealt with in order to be prepared for the adult world of ever-expanding technology.

In addition, it was expected that any student be prepared to learn (at university, if he had not already done so at home), to consider all points of view, including those less palatable. In debating classes, he’d be expected to take any side of any argument and argue it as best he could. In large measure, these requirements have disappeared from institutions of higher learning, and in their place, colleges provide coloring books, Play-Doh, and cry closets.

At the same time as a generation of "snowflakes" is being created, the same jurisdictions that are most prominently creating them (the above-mentioned EU, US, Canada, etc.) are facing, not just a generation of young adults who have a meltdown when challenged in some small way. They’re facing an international economic and political meltdown of epic proportions. Several generations of business and political leaders have created the greatest "kick the can" bubble that the world has ever witnessed.

We can’t pinpoint the day on which this bubble will pop, but it would appear that we may now be quite close, as those who have been kicking the can have been running out of the means to continue. The approach of a crisis is doubly concerning, as, historically, whenever generations of older people destroy their economy from within, it invariably falls to the younger generation to dig the country out of the resultant rubble.

Never in history has a crisis of such great proportions loomed and yet, never in history has the unfortunate generation that will inherit the damage been so unequivocally incapable of coping with that damage. As unpleasant as it may be to accept, there’s no solution for idiocy. Any society that has hardwired a generation of its children to be unable to cope will find that that generation will be a lost one. It will, in fact, be the following generation – the one that has grown up during the aftermath of the collapse – that will, of necessity, develop the skills needed to cope with an actual recovery.

So, does that mean that the world will be in chaos for more than a generation before the next batch of people can be raised to cope? Well, no. Actually, that’s already happening. In Europe, where the Millennial trend exists, western Europeans have been growing up coddled and incapable, whilst eastern Europeans, who have experienced war and hardship, are growing up to be quite capable of handling whatever hardships come their way. Likewise, in Asia, the percentage of young people who are being raised to understand that they must soon shoulder the responsibility of the future is quite high.

And elsewhere in the world – outside the sphere of the EU, US, Canada, etc. – the same is largely true. As has been forever true throughout history, civilization does not come to a halt. It’s a "movable feast" that merely changes geographic locations from one era to another. Always, as one star burns out, another takes its place. What’s of paramount importance is to read the tea leaves – to see the future coming and adjust for it."
o

"If You Try..."

 

The Daily "Near You?"

Apalachin, New York, USA. Thanks for stopping by!