Wednesday, April 12, 2023

Bill Bonner, "That's Capitalism, Folks!"

"That's Capitalism, Folks!"
What Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Jon Stewart
 and other rich politico-celebs just don't understand...
by Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

"Something seems to have broken with capitalism."
~ Albert Edwards
"Something seems to have broken with Albert Edwards."
~ Bill Bonner

San Martin, Argentina - "You can tell when we are in an economic crisis. The influencers begin to tell us how ‘capitalism’ has failed… Yes, the ‘system’ that made us so wealthy has now reached the end of the line…no more juice in that lemon, they say. Now, it’s time for the experts to take over. Here’s Futurism: "Economist Warns That Capitalism May Be Ending." The world is changing, and it's getting more expensive - while wages, as most working people have witnessed in their own lives, have failed to keep up with the rising cost of pretty much everything. According to Albert Edwards, a global strategist at the 159-year-old bank Société Générale, this phenomenon is the result of what he calls "greedflation."

The latest release of US whole economy profits data delivered another shock to my weakening confidence that the capitalist system is working as it should," the note continues. "Companies have used first the pandemic and then the war in Ukraine to 'profiteer.'"

In other words, in Edwards' eyes, the fact that Fortune 500 companies are raking in normal — if not record-breaking — profits in the wake of pandemic and war-induced geopolitical and economic stress, while price-gouging consumers as working-class wages stay the same, isn't exactly a sustainable way for people to live…”No! Unbelievable! Those greedy SOBs; they raise prices…when they can get away with it!

Lower Salaries Everyday: Well, thank God, other segments of the population are more public spirited…more self-sacrificing…and more civic minded. You don’t see them trying to take advantage of a bad situation, do you? Take the long-suffering consumer, for example. He realizes that producers are always trapped between resource costs, labor, taxes, and interest rates. So, the consumer always wants to pay full price so that producers’ profit margins can be maintained, right? No discount shopping for him.

And what about laborers? Employees? You don’t see them asking for wage increases…just because they know there’s a shortage of skilled labor. Un un. They happily stick with their low salaries so employers can keep prices as low as possible for consumers.

But what’s this? Rutgers already charges out-of-state students $33,963 per year. Fortune: "Around 9,000 Rutgers employees are going on strike for the first time in 275 years." "Classes were still being held at Rutgers as picket lines were set up at the school’s campuses in New Brunswick/Piscataway, Newark and Camden. Union officials had decided Sunday night to go on strike, citing a stalemate in contract talks that have been ongoing since July. Faculty members had voted overwhelmingly in favor of authorizing a strike last month." Guess tuition is going up.

Good for the Goose: But if you’re looking for examples of civic virtue, you can’t ignore the public servants, who never ask for anything save a little ‘thank you,’ from time to time. Would they consider increases to their wages or the pensions…knowing that governments are already a little short of cash? Of course not. Greed is uniquely concentrated in the corporate sector. And if businesses weren’t so greedy, prices would be much lower, right?

We have that on the authority of at least two of the peoples’ most selfless representatives: Bernie Sanders (net worth, $3 million) and Elizabeth Warren (net worth $67 million). Also, Jon Stewart (net worth, $120 million) should be mentioned for his star performance in grilling ex-Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. All of them believe their own salaries and profits are merely reflections of their worth…they deserve the money. Amounts earned by corporate management and stockholders, on the other hand, are just evidence of ‘obscene greed.’

What troubles us is this: Stewart, Sanders, and Warren are paid to act like fools, Albert Edwards is not. He’s a serious financial analyst. What’s gone wrong with him? He must know that ‘capitalism’ is no ‘system.’ It’s merely what happens when greedy people – consumers, workers and owners – work out whatever arrangements they can. It is infinitely adaptable. Workers and owners could agree to split whatever gains they get, for example, as we do with our sharecroppers. We provide the land, the tractors, the fuel, the fertilizer and the marketing...they provide the labor. We share the gains equally. Is that capitalism? Yes, of course it is.

Or, a capitalist enterprise could perfectly well agree to pass part of its margins to shoppers – as some co-ops and consumer clubs do. That’s capitalism too. So, too, could a group of people get together and agree to live in teepees, to share wives and incomes, to make glass beads and sell them to tourists. That’s capitalism.

Blind Capitalism: Capitalism doesn’t care how much things cost. It doesn’t care who works for whom…what they do…how they do it…or how they share the profits and losses. It only cares that, whatever they do…they do so voluntarily. That is really the only difference. Capitalism is win-win. Other ‘systems’ are win-lose, where one group uses its police power…or robbery…or treachery…to get what it wants.

And what about ‘employee-owned’ businesses? They’re capitalist too. And we presume that since employees are not greedy, they must offer the best products at the lowest possible margins. No price gouging from them! So, it is just a matter of time until they have competed away exorbitant corporate profits…charmed customers with their lower prices…and become the dominant form of business in the USA, right?

Wrong. All small, family businesses are ‘employee owned.’ Many large businesses are employee-owned too. And they’re just as greedy as everyone else. Because we are all subject to the same emotions and compulsions – greed, power, ambition, fame, vanity – workers, investors, managers, politicians, opinion mongers…everyone.

And ‘capitalism’ is just a word used to describe what happens when people – with all the faults and foibles – are left alone to get the job done. They work out all sorts of different arrangements. Some work better than others. But the alternatives – statism, central planning, various forms of state-sponsored collectivism – all require the use of force. They give the ‘experts’ more power and money.

But ‘The People’ are always poorer. Tomorrow we’ll look at what really went wrong with ‘capitalism.’"

Joel’s Note: "It’s not hard to see why Edward’s simple “Greedflation” portmanteau would play well with clowns like Warren, Sanders, Stewart et al. Even as the wonders of the modern, digital age promised us a bountiful cornucopia of abundance, by many measures, workers are worse off today than they were ten, twenty even forty years ago. For one thing, real wages (adjusted for inflation) have gone nowhere for almost a generation. And for the past 24 months, they’ve actually been going backwards. BPR’s Macro Analyst, Dan Denning, sent this chart from his bolthole up in Laramie, Wyoming. It comes courtesy of the bi-partisan Congressional Budget Office…
Click image for larger size.
Meanwhile, as wages stagnate, inflation remains stubbornly in “non-transitory mode.” Yesterday’s core (ex-food and energy) Consumer Price Index print showed an increase of 5.6% over the past 12 months, before seasonal adjustment, up another 0.4% for March. Food and shelter – you know, the base of Maslow’s ‘hierarchy of needs’ pyramid – were up 8.5 and 8.3% over the past year.

Hmm… do we reckon that might have something to do with people’s general level of frustration? “This is what we've called 'structural inflation,’” Dan reminds us, “where inflation never returns to the Fed's target of 2% and people have to learn to live with it and adapt to it. Gone are cheap goods from China, cheap credit, and cheap energy. Here to stay are higher prices for food, energy, rent, and services. The supply chain got broken. It will not be built back better. Things will stay expensive.”

In not-unrelated news, life expectancy in the US also fell for the past two years (2020-2022), from 77 years to 76.1 years. According to a study by Harvard University, it was the largest two-year drop in… oh, a century. Read the report: "[T]hose with the shortest life expectancies in the US tend to have the most poverty, face the most food insecurity, and have less or no access to healthcare, all factors that contribute to lower life expectancy."

For this and so, so much more, you can thank your government’s promise to you: Higher prices everyday."

"How It Really Is And Will Be"

 

"Humanity..."

"Humanity, I love you because when you're down
and out you pawn your intelligence for a drink." 
 - e.e. cummings

"Ukraine Firepower v Russian Firepower w/Scott Ritter"

Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 4/12/23
"Ukraine Firepower v Russian Firepower w/Scott Ritter"
Comments here:

"Rent is Coming Due"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly 4/12/23
"Rent is Coming Due"
"It is estimated that there are over $6 trillion in commercial real estate loans in the United States. The problem is that trillions of dollars is about to come due over the next few years."
Comments here:

"Major Price Increases At Walmart! This Is Getting Ridiculous! What Now?"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danny, 4/12/23
"Major Price Increases At Walmart! 
This Is Getting Ridiculous! What Now?"
"In today's vlog we are at Walmart and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:

"Russia Just Hacked NATO; F-22s On Alert; N. Korea Dark For 5 Days; Global Nuke Drills"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 4/11/23
"Russia Just Hacked NATO; F-22s On Alert; 
N. Korea Dark For 5 Days; Global Nuke Drills"
Comments here:

"Putin Army of 300,000 to 700,000"

Scott Ritter, 4/12/23
"Putin Army of 300,000 to 700,000"
Comments here:

Tuesday, April 11, 2023

"Walmart Warning! Brace For Impact - Don't Worry About Recession, Worry About A Depression"

Jeremiah Babe, 4/11/23
"Walmart Warning! Brace For Impact - 
Don't Worry About Recession, Worry About A Depression"
Comments here:

Gerald Celente, "Danger Ahead, Banking Sector Crisis"

Gerald Celente, 4/11/23
Strong language alert!
"Danger Ahead, Banking Sector Crisis"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present facts and truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for what’s next in these increasingly turbulent times."
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: Dan Fogelberg, "Nether Lands"

Full screen recommended.
Dan Fogelberg, "Nether Lands"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“This colorful skyscape features the dusty, reddish glow of Sharpless catalog emission region Sh2-155, the Cave Nebula. About 2,400 light-years away, the scene lies along the plane of our Milky Way Galaxy toward the royal northern constellation of Cepheus.
Astronomical explorations of the region reveal that it has formed at the boundary of the massive Cepheus B molecular cloud and the hot, young, blue stars of the Cepheus OB 3 association. The bright rim of ionized hydrogen gas is energized by the radiation from the hot stars, dominated by the bright blue O-type star above picture center. Radiation driven ionization fronts are likely triggering collapsing cores and new star formation within. Appropriately sized for a stellar nursery, the cosmic cave is over 10 light-years across.”

"Assumptions..."

 

"Housing Market Faces Nightmare Scenario As Sales Collapse 74 Percent"

Full screen recommended.
"Housing Market Faces Nightmare Scenario 
As Sales Collapse 74 Percent"
By Epic Economist

"Anxiety over a housing market disaster continues to rise all over America. Home sales are falling precipitously, double-digit price drops are already being reported in many major U.S. cities, and foreclosure rates are going through the roof right now. All that is thanks to the spike in mortgage rates that is causing an affordability crisis far worse than economists anticipated. Demand is cratering faster than ever before, which led a famous Big Short investor to warn about a “danger that households could come to lose a significant proportion of their property value overnight again”.

Existing home sales have gone down consistently every month for an entire year. The decline was fueled by recession fears, and more recently, by a backdrop of bank collapse and financial turmoil. It’s all creating a negative feedback loop between buyers and sellers, says Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic. Now, with rates hoovering 7% again, the cracks are growing wider in the U.S. housing market. In fact, Black Knight data shows that Between March 2021 and March 2023, total mortgage originations fell by 83%. Refinancings - which were more than 70% of the total at the beginning of the period - dropped by a stunning 95%, as soaring interest rates killed demand.

In March, U.S. home prices logged a ninth-straight monthly decline. In the eight months from June 2022 to February 2023, existing home prices fell 12%, from $413,800 to $363,000. S&P Market Intelligence data shows that 19 of the 25 major cities it analyzes registered a decline in home prices this year.

Currently, only 18% of homes listed for sale are affordable for the typical U.S. household, meaning that a buyer’s monthly mortgage payment is 30% or less of the buyer’s income.The last time the U.S. housing market looked so frothy was back in 2005 to 2007. Then home values crashed, with disastrous consequences, Seeking Alpha’s financial analyst Logan Kane highlights. The speed of the deterioration in fundamentals could be catastrophic. Conditions are becoming so extreme that even Goldman Sachs is admitting that 4 major cities are already facing a 2008-style housing crash, according to a note to clients obtained by the New York Post.

Meanwhile, ATTOM found that foreclosure filings rose by 36% in February. For 21 consecutive months, the rate of foreclosures has been surging all across the U.S. Over the past twelve months, there was a 115% increase in foreclosure fillings and a 67% rise in the number of properties repossessed by lenders. Adding fuel to the fire, in the last week of March, an $18.7 billion decline in real estate loans was recorded, but that was just a continuation of the $19.2 billion drop in the previous week. Combining the two weeks adds to a $37.8 billion plunge in real estate loans in the second half of March.

This is a very worrying number because it is the biggest since the collapse of the country’s then-second largest subprime lender, New Century Financial in March 2007 was the catalyst that ushered in the global financial crisis, and within the year led to the collapse of Bear Stearns and, eventually, Lehman. The pressure is on. It’s safe to say that the U.S. housing bubble won’t live for another year, and the coming months will be decisive for the market as prices continue to collapse. We have never seen so many similarities to the catastrophic event that rocked the world’s financial markets and plunged us into the worst economic recession in history. Only this time, we’re headed to an ever bigger downturn that will have disastrous consequences for all of us."
Comments here:

Bill Bonner, "Under Attack!

"Under Attack!
Kamikaze dive bombers swarm the Calchaqui Valley"
By Bill Bonner

San Martin, Argentina - "Yesterday, for no apparent reason, our computer stopped working. It wouldn’t turn on. We pressed the button…we held it down…we punched it. We prayed. We rocked the computer back and forth…caressed it tenderly…then gave it a whack and made sure it was fully charged…But what could we do?

The tools of the modern age are black boxes. You can’t ‘open the hood.’ You can’t tinker with a silicon chip. You can’t do anything. If they don’t work, you are SOL. Back in the ‘60s…if something didn’t work, we would take it apart. In old cars, for example, you could disassemble the carburetor, clean it…and put it back together. So too, the ‘points’ could be bent a little…cleaned with steel wool…and returned to service. Spark plugs, same story. And you could take one out and see for yourself if it was sparking.

Then, you checked to see if the fuel was getting to the engine. Was the fuel pump working? It was easy to find out…just disconnect the fuel line and turn the key…the fuel should come spurting out. Were the filters clogged? Just take a look. If you had fuel…and you had spark…something was going to happen.

No Spark: But yesterday, we had neither fuel nor spark. Well, we didn’t know what we didn’t have; it just didn’t work…and there was nothing we could do about it. The tech fates were clearly against us. For not only did our computer refuse to do its job, the airwaves were suddenly empty too. No signal. No signal, no phone. No phone, no internet. No internet, no contact with the outside world. We had been ‘canceled,’…disappeared from active life on the worldwide web.

What could we do, but rejoin the real world? We went for a walk. Antonio was feeding the calves. The ‘chango’ (young man) who usually does the job was occupied with the cattle on the other side of the river. Antonio, the foreman, had to do it himself.
The rolls of hay are tightly wound. So, you have to dig at them with a pitchfork to break some of the hay off, then you put it into the concrete trough. It’s a lot of work, and it must be done twice a day.

“Why not just put the bales in the corral and let the calves eat them that way; that’s what we do with the horses?” “The vet says it is better this way. We don’t want the calves using their energy to fight with each other. The strong ones will circle the bales and the weak ones – the ones that need it – won’t get anything to eat. They gain almost a kilogram per day…if we feed them right. And then we can sell them.”

We continued our walk…kicking up dust…over a couple of small hills… picking our way through the thorns…and then, on a bluff not far from the main house, overlooking the valley, was what we were looking for -- the wreck of a modest dwelling.

We finished the little chapel on this visit. All that remained was the floor. And for that, we made a cross of super-hard quebracho…laid down a border of stones, set on end…and then filled in with flattish stones in cement. The effect is not as elegant as we had hoped. The sand was too coarse and left us with a gritty, uneven surface. No matter. We will either get to like it…or put a thin level of pure cement on top, profiled around the stones, next year. But now, we are ready for another project.

Sleeping Rough: When the family came this year, we were a little short on space. One couple…two sons and a grandson…a family friend – all came at the same time. And the nearest hotel is a half-an-hour away. If any more had come they would have had to sleep outside. So…on to the bunkhouse!
Bunkhouse?
We went to explore. Trashy. Holes in the roof. Bent beams. Crumbling adobe bricks. Dirt floor. Perfect! A nice place to turn into a bunkhouse for grandchildren. We have 7 of them so far…with another scheduled for the 21st of April. (Today, we begin our trip back to Dublin to lend support to the family.)

Poking our head into one of the rooms, we spied a huge, black growth on the wall. We were still wondering what it was…moving closer to the blob, which was about the size of a kitchen stove… when we realized we had made a mistake. There was a loud buzzing noise…and we were soon under attack. The bees came at us like kamikaze dive bombers…swooping down…grazing our cheeks and then circling around for another attack.

In a flash, we were on the move…followed by a swarm of bees. We flashed across the yard, like the British at the Battle of New Orleans, we ran through the briars and we ran through the brambles… using our hat as a rear guard, swatting at them to keep them away. We dove between two lines of wire fencing and then ran down the hill.

The bees kept after us; we remembered that we kept an emergency shot of epinephrine in the pickup. But none stung. It was as if they were just trying to run us off…to warn us not to come back. We had run about 50 yards, swinging at the air around us…until the last bee finally called off the chase.

First order of business: as soon as the temperature drops…the bees have to go. Then, when we return next March, we can get to work…preferably with at least one sturdy grandchild to help. We’ll keep it simple. Rustic. Authentic. Two bunks in one room. Two in the other. Stone floors. Unclad adobe walls. Cane on the roof, covered by mud. A bathroom. A little solar electricity. Piece of cake. But that is for next year.

With heavy hearts, we leave the valley this morning. Its bright sun…its eccentrics…its challenges – we will miss them all. We are headed for Buenos Aires. There, we will meet our old friend, Doug Casey, before leaving for Dublin. Stay tuned..."

The Daily "Near You?"

Palmer, Alaska, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Something Like Reverence..."

"When I see the blind and wretched state of men, when I survey the whole universe in its deadness, and man left to himself with no light, as though lost in this corner of the universe without knowing who put him there, what he has to do, or what will become of him when he dies, incapable of knowing anything, I am moved to terror, like a man transported in his sleep to some terrifying desert island, who wakes up quite lost, with no means of escape. Then I marvel that so wretched a state does not drive people to despair." 
- Blaise Pascal

Ahh, but it does...
“When the pain of leaving behind what we know outweighs the pain of embracing it, or when the power we face is overwhelming and neither flight nor fight will save us, there may be salvation in sitting still. And if salvation is impossible, then at least before perishing we may gain a clearer vision of where we are. By sitting still I do not mean the paralysis of dread, like that of a rabbit frozen beneath the dive of a hawk. I mean something like reverence, a respectful waiting, a deep attentiveness to forces much greater than our own.”
- Scott Russell Sanders

Folks, I fear our time for such reverence is here.
God help us, God help us all...

"There Are Times"

"There Are Times"

"There are times the lies get to me, times I weary of battering myself against the obstacles of denial, hatred, fear-induced stupidity, and greed, times I want to curl up and fall into the problem, let it sweep me away as it so obviously sweeps away so many others. I remember a spring day a few years ago, a spring day much like this one, only a little more sun, and warmer. I sat on this same couch and looked out this same window at the same ponderosa pine.

I was frightened, and lonely. Frightened of a future that looks dark, and darker with each passing species, and lonely because for every person actively trying to shut down the timber industry, stop abuse, or otherwise bring about a sustainable and sane way of living, there are thousands who are helping along this not-so-slow train to oblivion. I began to cry.

The tears stopped soon enough. I realized we are not so outnumbered. We are not outnumbered at all. I looked closely, and saw one blade of wild grass, and another. I saw the sun reflecting bright off the needles of pine trees, and I heard the hum of flies. I saw ants walking single file through the dust, and a spider crawling toward the corner of the ceiling. I knew in that moment, as I've known ever since, that it is no longer possible to be lonely, that every creature on earth is pulling in the direction of life- every grasshopper, every struggling salmon, every unhatched chick, every cell of every blue whale - and it is only our own fear that sets us apart. All humans, too, are struggling to be sane, struggling to live in harmony with our surroundings, but it's really hard to let go. And so we lie, destroy, rape, murder, experiment, and extirpate, all to control this wildly uncontrollable symphony, and failing that, to destroy it."
- Derrick Jensen,
"A Language Older Than Words"

"There Is So Much Evil All Around Us…" (Excerpt)

"There Is So Much Evil All Around Us…"
By Michael Snyder

Excerpt: "Unless you are living under a rock, you can’t escape from all of the evil that is completely saturating our society right now. I know that a lot of people don’t like to use the word “evil”, but what else are you going to call it? Everywhere around us, people are doing absolutely horrible things to one another and to themselves. As I discussed a few days ago, our society has never been in worse shape than it is right now. Of course this shouldn’t actually be a surprise to any of us. If we really are living in “the end times”, we should expect that evil will flourish. But it should also greatly sadden us that the country that we love so much has fallen so far.

Since the beginning of April, there have been 15 mass shootings in the United States. And by the time that some of you read this article, that number will probably be even higher. Our society is absolutely teeming with insane people at this point. And as we have seen, it certainly doesn’t take much to push them over the edge."
Full article is here, if you dare read it...

While reading how horrifyingly, insanely disgusting America
 has become you may need this...

"How It Really Is"

 

"Price Increases At Meijer! What's Next?! What's Coming?

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danny, 4/11/23
"Price Increases At Meijer! 
What's Next?! What's Coming?
"In today's vlog we are at Meijer, and are noticing some price increases on groceries! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and the empty shelves situation! It's getting rough out here as stores continue to raise prices on most food items!"
Comments here:

Monday, April 10, 2023

"Apple Computer's An Ominous Sign of The Economy; West Coast Ports Closed. Another Shortage Crisis"

Jeremiah Babe, 4/10/23
"Apple Computer's An Ominous Sign of The Economy; 
West Coast Ports Closed. Another Shortage Crisis"
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: Juzzie Smith, "Blueberry Jam"

Full screen recommended.
Juzzie Smith, "Blueberry Jam"
An incredible one man band!

"A Look to the Heavens"

The constellation of Orion holds much more than three stars in a row. A deep exposure shows everything from dark nebula to star clusters, all embedded in an extended patch of gaseous wisps in the greater Orion Molecular Cloud Complex. The brightest three stars on the far left are indeed the famous three stars that make up the belt of Orion. Just below Alnitak, the lowest of the three belt stars, is the Flame Nebula, glowing with excited hydrogen gas and immersed in filaments of dark brown dust. 
 
Below the frame center and just to the right of Alnitak lies the Horsehead Nebula, a dark indentation of dense dust that has perhaps the most recognized nebular shapes on the sky. On the upper right lies M42, the Orion Nebula, an energetic caldron of tumultuous gas, visible to the unaided eye, that is giving birth to a new open cluster of stars. Immediately to the left of M42 is a prominent bluish reflection nebula sometimes called the Running Man that houses many bright blue stars. The above image, a digitally stitched composite taken over several nights, covers an area with objects that are roughly 1,500 light years away and spans about 75 light years.”

Chet Raymo, "Free As A Bird"

"Free As A Bird"
by Chet Raymo

"All afternoon I have been watching a pair of hummingbirds play about our porch. They live somewhere nearby, though I haven't found their nest. They are attracted to our hummingbird feeder, which we keep full of sugar water. What perfect little machines they are! No other bird can perform their tricks of flight - flying backwards, hovering in place. Zip. Zip. From perch to perch in a blur of iridescence. If you want a symbol of freedom, the hummingbird is it. Exuberant. Unpredictable. A streak of pure fun. It is the speed, of course, that gives the impression of perfect spontaneity. The bird can perform a dozen intricate maneuvers more quickly than I can turn my head.

Is the hummingbird's apparent freedom illusory, a biochemically determined response to stimuli from the environment? Or is the hummingbird's flight what it seems to be, willful and unpredictable? If I can answer that question, I will be learning as much about myself as about the hummingbird. So I watch. And I consider what I know of biochemistry. The hummingbird is awash in signals from its environment - visual, olfactory, auditory and tactile cues that it processes and responds to with lightning speed.

How does it do it? Proteins, mostly. Every cell of the hummingbird's body is a buzzing conversation of proteins, each protein a chain of hundreds of amino acids folded into a complex shape like a piece of a three-dimensional jigsaw puzzle. Shapes as various as the words of a human vocabulary. An odor molecule from a blossom, for example, binds to a protein receptor on a cell membrane of the hummingbird's olfactory organ - like a jigsaw-puzzle piece with its neighbor. This causes the receptor molecule to change that part of its shape that extends inside the cell. Another protein now binds with the new configuration of the receptor, and changes its own shape. And so on, in a sequence of shapeshifting and binding - called a signal-transduction cascade - until the hummingbird's brain "experiences" the odor.

Now appropriate signals must be sent from the brain to the body - ion flows established along neural axons, synapses activated. Wing muscles must respond to direct the hummingbird to the source of nourishment. Tens of thousands of proteins in a myriad of cells talk to each other, each protein genetically prefigured by the hummingbird's DNA to carry on its conversation in a particular part of the body. All of this happens continuously, and so quickly that to my eye the bird's movements are a blur.

There is much left to learn, but this much is clear: There is no ghost in the machine, no hummingbird pilot making moment by moment decisions out of the whiffy stuff of spirit. Every detail of the hummingbird's apparently willful flight is biochemistry. Between the hummingbird and myself there is a difference of complexity, but not of kind. If humans are the lords of terrestrial creation, it is because of the huge tangle of nerves that sits atop our spines.

So what does this mean about human freedom? If we are biochemical machines in interaction with our environments, in what sense can we be said to be free? What happens to "free will"? Perhaps the most satisfying place to look for free will is in what is sometimes called chaos theory. In sufficiently complex systems with many feedback loops - the global economy, the weather, the human nervous system - small perturbations can lead to unpredictable large-scale consequences, though every part of the system is individually deterministic. This has sometimes been called - somewhat facetiously - the butterfly effect: a butterfly flaps its wings in China and triggers a cascade of events that results in a snowstorm in Chicago. Chaos theory has taught us that determinism does not imply predictability. Of course, this is not what philosophers traditionally meant by free will, but it is indistinguishable from what philosophers traditionally meant by free will. If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it's a duck.

I watch the hummingbirds at the feeder. Their hearts beat ten times faster than a human's. They have the highest metabolic rate of any animal, a dozen times higher than a pigeon, a hundred times higher than an elephant. Hummingbirds live at the edge of what is biologically possible, and it's that, the fierce intenseness of their aliveness, that makes them appear so exuberantly free. But there are no metaphysical pilots in these little flying machines. The machines are the pilots. You give me carbon, oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen and a few billion years of evolution, and I'll give you a bird that burns like a luminous flame. The hummingbird's freedom was built into the universe from the first moment of creation."

Further Reading:
• For a brilliant and provocative treatment of free will and determinism, read Daniel Dennett's "Freedom Evolves."
• The always provocative Roger Penrose looks for free will in quantum uncertainty in his "The Emperor's New Mind". Not an easy read, and, in my view, case not proved.

"A Major Credit Crunch Has Already Begun As $1.7 Trillion Unrealized Losses Aggravate Banking Crisis"

Full screen recommended.
"A Major Credit Crunch Has Already Begun As $1.7 
Trillion Unrealized Losses Aggravate Banking Crisis"
By Epic Economist

"This is moving even faster than a lot of us thought that it would. For weeks, I have been warning my viewers about the worsening banking crisis. When banks get into trouble, they start getting really tight with their money. That means fewer mortgages, fewer commercial real estate loans, fewer auto loans and fewer credit cards being issued. So it should greatly concern all of us that U.S. banks are bleeding deposits at an absolutely staggering pace right now. During the week ending March 15th, 98.4 billion dollars was pulled out of U.S. banks. That was really bad, but we just learned that things got even worse the next week. During the week ending March 22nd, 126 billion dollars was pulled out of U.S. banks…When lots of depositors start pulling their money out, banks can be forced to sell assets in order to have enough cash.

Unfortunately, U.S. banks are sitting on a giant mountain of unrealized losses right now. And it turns out that small banks are getting particularly tight with their money… Commercial bank lending dropped nearly $105 billion in the two weeks ended March 29, the most in Federal Reserve data back to 1973. The more than $45 billion decrease in the latest week was primarily due to a a drop in loans by small banks. The pullback in total lending in the last half of March was broad and included fewer real estate loans, as well as commercial and industrial loans.

All of the bubbles have started to burst, and our entire system is beginning to tremble violently. So I would encourage you to hold on tight, because we have got a very bumpy ride ahead of us. A major credit crunch is already here, but most Americans still don’t understand that severe economic pain is dead ahead."
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"Massive Price Increases At Walgreens! Brace Yourself, This is Absolutely Ridiculous!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 4/10/23
"Massive Price Increases At Walgreens! 
Brace Yourself, This is Absolutely Ridiculous!"
"In today's vlog we are at Walgreens, and are noticing some massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and find different ways to save money! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
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The Daily "Near You?"

Holly, Michigan, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

Free Download: Viktor Frankl, "Man's Search for Meaning"

“It did not really matter what we expected from life, but rather what life expected from us. We needed to stop asking about the meaning of life, and instead to think of ourselves as those who were being questioned by life – daily and hourly. Our answer must consist, not in talk and meditation, but in right action and in right conduct. Life ultimately means taking the responsibility to find the right answer to its problems and to fulfill the tasks which it constantly sets for each individual…

There is also purpose in life which is almost barren of both creation and enjoyment and which admits of but one possibility of high moral behavior: namely, in man’s attitude to his existence, an existence restricted by external forces. When a man finds that it is his destiny to suffer, he will have to accept his suffering as his task. He will have to acknowledge the fact that even in suffering he is unique and alone in the universe. No one can relieve him of his suffering or suffer in his place. His unique opportunity lies in the way in which he bears his burden…

What matters, therefore, is not the meaning of life in general, but rather the specific meaning of a person’s life at a given moment…

Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms – to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way…

Ultimately, man should not ask what the meaning of his life is, but rather must recognize that it is he who is asked. In a word, each man is questioned by life; and he can only answer to life by answering for his own life; to life he can only respond by being responsible.”
- Viktor Frankl, “Man’s Search for Meaning”
"Man's Search for Meaning"
by Viktor Frankl

"Some details of a particular man's inner greatness may have come to one's mind, like the story of a young woman whose death I witnessed in a concentration camp. It is a simple story. There is little to tell and it may sound as if I had invented it; but to me it seems like a poem.

This young woman knew that she would die in the next few days. But when I talked to her she was cheerful in spite of this knowledge. 'I am grateful that fate has hit me so hard,' she told me. 'In my former life I was spoiled and did not take spiritual accomplishments seriously.' Pointing through the window of the hut, she said, 'This tree here is the only friend I have in my loneliness.' Through that window she could see just one branch of a chestnut tree, and on the branch were two blossoms. 'I often talk to this tree,' she said to me. I was startled and didn't quite know how to take her words. Was she delirious? Did she have occasional hallucinations? Anxiously I asked her if the tree replied. 'Yes.' What did it say to her? She answered, 'It said to me, "I am here - I am here - I am life, eternal life."

Freely download "Man's Search for Meaning", by Viktor Frankl, here:

"Our Task..."

“We have not overcome our condition, and yet we know it better. We know that we live in contradiction, but we also know that we must refuse this contradiction and do what is needed to reduce it. Our task as humans is to find the few principles that will calm the infinite anguish of free souls. We must mend what has been torn apart, make justice imaginable again in a world so obviously unjust, give happiness a meaning once more to peoples poisoned by the misery of the century. Naturally, it is a superhuman task. But superhuman is the term for tasks we take a long time to accomplish, that’s all.

Let us know our aims then, holding fast to the mind, even if force puts on a thoughtful or a comfortable face in order to seduce us. The first thing is not to despair. Let us not listen too much to those who proclaim that the world is at an end. Civilizations do not die so easily, and even if our world were to collapse, it would not have been the first. It is indeed true that we live in tragic times. But too many people confuse tragedy with despair. “Tragedy,” D.H. Lawrence said, “ought to be a great kick at misery.” This is a healthy and immediately applicable thought. There are many things today deserving such a kick.”
- Albert Camus

"Insanity..."

 

"When Empires Die"

"When Empires Die"
by Jeff Thomas

"Years ago, Doug Casey stated, "When empires die, they do so with surprising speed." At the time, that comment raised eyebrows, yet he was quite correct in his observation. Ernest Hemingway made a similar comment when a character in his novel "The Sun Also Rises" was asked how he went bankrupt. The answer was, "Gradually, then suddenly. Again, this sounds cryptic, yet it's accurate.

Any empire, at its peak, is all-powerful, but the fragility of an empire that's in decline is hard to grasp, as the visuals tend not to reveal what's soon to come. Great countries are built upon traditional values – industriousness, self-reliance, honor, etc. But empires are distinctly different. Although it may seem to be a moot point, an empire is a great country whose traditional values have led it to become unusually prosperous. There are many countries, both large and small, that are "great" in their formative values, but only a few become empires.

Yes, the prosperity is brought about through traditional values, but a great country becomes an empire only when its prosperity is sufficient to allow it to branch out – to invade other lands – to plunder their assets and subjugate their peoples. We tend to grasp, through hindsight, that this is what made the Roman Empire possible. And we accept that the Spanish Empire was created through its invasion of the Americas and the plundering of pre-Columbian gold. And we understand that the tiny island of Britain achieved its empire by covering the world with colonies that it had taken by force.

In every case, the pattern was the same – expand, conquer, plunder, dominate. As a British subject, my childhood understanding was that previous empires had come about through nefarious pursuits, but I was encouraged to believe that the British empire was somehow different – that my forefathers sailed the seven seas to liberate distant populations. That, of course, was nonsense.

The British empire is now long over, and the current empire is the United States. Around 1900, the then-great country of the US sought to achieve empire and, at that time, its president, Teddy Roosevelt, was insatiable in his desire to conquer foreign lands, both near (Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador, Panama, Puerto Rico, Cuba) and far (Hawaii, Philippines, Japan).

The results of his efforts were mostly successful, and although the countries taken were not called colonies, they were certainly intended to be vassal states. And there can be no question the US government's methods were no kinder than that of the Huns. Some locations, like Hawaii, went fairly peacefully, whilst others, like the Philippines, required brutal slaughter on a grand scale. And such tactics change the nature of a "great" country. Yes, it does allow it to become even greater, in terms of domination, but it ceases to be great in terms of its values.

In most cases, this plants the seeds of empirical collapse. The empire, even as it's growing, is rotting from within, with deteriorating principles and morality – the very traits that created it. This, in turn, causes the empire to develop a habit of subjugation – even over its friends and allies abroad – those countries that got on board to take part in the prosperity. While, to some extent, these loyalties by other nations are genuine, they are treated as lesser nations, eventually causing resentment of the empire. As such, in the latter days of the empire, ally nations become toadies. Their hatred for the empire is palpable, but they maintain their obeisance, grudgingly.

Empires are built upon monetary prosperity. We can understand that an empire, in its heyday, attracts all and sundry to its shores. It builds up the ability to dictate to others since the whole world hopes to gain favour. But, towards the end of the empirical period, it's resented by all those who were once genuine allies.

In its latter days, an empire becomes hollowed out. It's burdened with a costly and top-heavy government. The middle class is expected to provide largess to the masses through bread & circuses, providing fealty for the political class. Traditional values are largely gone, and "everyone seeks to live off everyone else." At this point, the empire is a mere superstructure – one that's becoming increasingly unsound. Importantly, the prosperity that made empire possible is replaced by the illusion of prosperity – debt.

Concurrently, the political class becomes increasingly tyrannical in order to hold the collapsing edifice together. In the final stages, tyrannical efforts increase in both frequency and magnitude in order to maintain the subjugation of the masses for as long as possible. It may be beneficial for the reader to read this last line again, as this development is the most recognizable symptom of the final stage prior to the collapse of empire.

This final period is not only difficult to cope with, it's highly confusing for those living within a dying empire. The edifice still stands. With each election, the electorate hopes that somehow, a champion will spring forth and "put everything back the way it was."

But it's important to note that, historically, this never occurs. Whilst the average citizen hopes in vain for his political leaders to "wake up" and stop all the nonsense, he fails to grasp that, to the political leader, the most important pursuit is power. He cares not a whit for the well-being of the populace. The political class has no intention of relinquishing even a small amount of power for the good of the people he was elected to represent.

Historically, in every instance, every empire has collapsed from within. Once the apple is truly rotten, it cannot be un-rotted. And so, if we've been observant in the recent years and decades, we'll acknowledge that the present empire has already passed its sell-by date. Its political structure is wholly corrupted on both sides of the aisle; the economy is doomed due to unpayable debt; the population has become unproductive, and it's now in the process of alienating its former friends through increasingly desperate measures.

And here, we return to our opening paragraphs. In its final stage prior to collapse, the empire sells out its toadies and is therefore no longer of any benefit to them. Suddenly, the empire becomes a liability. And, at this point, those who have had to tolerate the indignity of being toadies look forward to a fall, even a partial one, by the empire.

At present, the US empire maintains an illusion of dominance, but it cannot withstand a test. A defeat in warfare, a collapse in finance, the loss of the petrodollar or the reserve currency, or any one of a host of triggers that are now looming would be sufficient to drop the US to one knee overnight. All that's needed is for one of the triggers to be pulled.

It matters little what the event will be; it's sufficient to understand that we are now drawing quite near and that the event is unavoidable. Historically, when an empire dies, all the notes suddenly come due.

The political class of any empire arrogantly depends upon allies to do as they're told, yet, when a decisive blow is dealt to the empire, those who had once been loyal allies are now as ready to abandon the empire as rats would abandon a sinking ship. When this happens, the crutches that the empire has been counting on to hold it up pull away quickly. The collapse will have occurred "gradually, then suddenly."

Once this is understood, the question for the reader becomes where he wishes to be when the edifice falls; whether he has prepared an alternative situation that will increase the likelihood that he will survive the debacle with his skin on."

"How It Really Is"

Oh no we haven't, not even close. 
This is just beginning, and you ain't seen nuthin' yet, but you will...
o
Gregory Mannarino, PM 4/10/23
"The FED. Is Deliberately Causing A 
Credit Collapse With Much Higher Inflation"
Comments here:

"Brace Yourselves For An Economic Avalanche, Because A Major Credit Crunch Has Already Begun"

"Brace Yourselves For An Economic Avalanche,
Because A Major Credit Crunch Has Already Begun"
by Michael Snyder

"This is moving even faster than a lot of us thought that it would. For weeks, I have been warning my readers about the coming credit crunch. When banks get into trouble, they start getting really tight with their money. That means fewer mortgages, fewer commercial real estate loans, fewer auto loans and fewer credit cards being issued. But I thought that it would take some time for the credit crunch to fully kick into high gear. Unfortunately, I was wrong about that. In fact, it is being reported that during the last two weeks of March bank lending in the United States “contracted by the most on record”

US bank lending contracted by the most on record in the last two weeks of March, indicating a tightening of credit conditions in the wake of several high-profile bank collapses that risks damaging the economy. In other words, we have never seen bank lending shrink faster than it did during the second half of March.

Wow.

And it turns out that small banks are getting particularly tight with their money…"Commercial bank lending dropped nearly $105 billion in the two weeks ended March 29, the most in Federal Reserve data back to 1973. The more than $45 billion decrease in the latest week was primarily due to a a drop in loans by small banks. The pullback in total lending in the last half of March was broad and included fewer real estate loans, as well as commercial and industrial loans."

As I have noted previously, small and mid-size banks provide the bulk of the commercial real estate loans in this country. We are already starting to see prices for commercial real estate plunge, and now Morgan Stanley is warning that the drop that we will ultimately see could rival “the decline during the 2008 financial crisis”…"Investors have sharpened their focus on this sector, given regional banks’ significant share in CRE lending. Even before the banking-industry turmoil, however, CRE was facing risks from long-term trends, with remote work threatening the office sub-sector.

What’s more, the sector is now facing a huge “refinancing wall”: More than half of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will be up for refinancing in the next couple of years. Even if current rates stay where they are, new lending rates are likely to be 3.5 to 4.5 percentage points higher than they are for many of CRE’s existing mortgages.

Commercial property prices have already turned down, and Morgan Stanley analysts forecast prices could fall as much as 40%, rivaling the decline during the 2008 financial crisis. These kinds of challenges can hurt not only the real estate industry, but also entire business communities related to it." A lot of people thought that I was exaggerating when I stated that we are heading into the worst commercial real estate crisis in our history. But I was not exaggerating one bit. 

Of course the credit crunch that we are now experiencing will have enormous ramifications for the entire economy. When consumers have access to less credit, they spend less money. And when consumers spend less money, businesses bring in less revenue and they start laying off workers. And when workers get laid off, they get behind on their debts. And that creates even more stress on the banks.

This new credit crisis threatens to spiral out of control, but Fed officials insist that everything is just fine. In fact, James Bullard seems convinced that interest rates should go even higher… “Financial stress seems to be abated, at least for now,” Bullard told reporters Thursday after speaking at an event in Little Rock, Arkansas. “And so it’s a good moment to continue to fight inflation and try to get on that disinflationary path.”

The St. Louis Fed chief said he doesn’t think tighter credit conditions stemming from the recent banking turmoil will be substantial enough to tip the US economy into recession, noting that demand for loans is still strong. Demand for loans may be strong, but the supply of credit is starting to dry up really quick.

Meanwhile, Americans continue to pull money out of the banks at a staggering rate…Friday’s report also showed commercial bank deposits dropped $64.7 billion in the latest week, marking the 10th-straight decrease that mainly reflected a decline at large firms. Every week that this happens, it is just going to cause banks to get even tighter with their money. But I was not exaggerating one bit.

And bank economists surveyed by the American Bankers Association expect credit conditions to continue to tighten during the months ahead…

o The Headline Credit Index fell in Q2 to 5.8, decreasing 6.7 points to its lowest point since the onset of the pandemic. The reading indicates broad-based expectations for weaker credit market conditions over the next six months among bank economists, and banks are likely to grow more cautious about extending credit.

o The Consumer Credit Index fell 7.9 points to 5.8 in Q2. EAC members expect credit availability to deteriorate more than credit quality, though almost all expect both to decline. The sub-50 reading indicates that consumer credit conditions are likely to weaken over the next six months.

o The Business Credit Index fell 5.6 points to 5.8 in Q2. All EAC members expect business credit availability will deteriorate in the next six months, and most expect business credit quality to deteriorate. The sub-50 reading indicates that EAC members expect that overall credit conditions for businesses will continue to weaken over the next two quarters."

Just look at those numbers. Any figure under 50 is bad, and those numbers are in the single digits. In all the years that I have been writing, I have never seen anything like this. So I am encouraging all of my readers to brace themselves for a massive economic avalanche. A major credit crunch is already here, but most Americans still don’t understand that severe economic pain is dead ahead."

Jim Kunstler, "A Nervous Hiatus"

"A Nervous Hiatus"
By Jim Kunstler

“Having lived through a reality-optional period of history, it will come as an ecstatic shock to learn that the world requires us to pay attention to what is really happening and to act accordingly.” - JHK

"On Easter Sunday, fate put me on the Jersey Turnpike at 5:30 in the morning. I was motoring home from our nation’s capital where I traveled for the memorial service of a favorite aunt who passed away last month at ninety-five after a richly rewarding life. Her husband, my favorite uncle, enjoyed a long and colorful career in America’s Intel Community, and passed-on back in 2002. They recruited him at the founding of Spooks Inc in the late 1940s, since he came out of the army intel corps in Southeast Asia during World War Two.

In the 1950s, Uncle “B” and his family were posted to Africa, first Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital. In the early 1960s, with colonialism crumbling, “B” operated all over Africa, making subtle arrangements in one new country after another for things to come out in America’s favor. For all his spookish doings, “B” was an artistically inclined soul. On one assignment to West Africa, he noticed the hotel staff were pilfering some of his belongings. He took some rocks up to his hotel and, cognizant that magic ruled in the region’s culture, painted eyes on the rocks and deployed them around the room. The pilfering stopped. “B” was famous for such insights about world’s exotic peoples. (He also played piano capably, specializing in the tunes of Gershwin and Cole Porter.)

Periodically the family sojourned in New York. With each US presidential election, the IC brought some spooks back to the homeland as the new team reassessed the global game-board. One Thanksgiving around 1961 after JFK came in, we were all gathered in the family’s rented Greenwich Village townhouse when three mysterious African gentlemen, ostensibly “from the UN,” were admitted briefly to the proceedings for a confab with “B”. I learned later that they were a delegation from Angola, where a war of independence from Portugal was catching fire. The men were in New York seeking help from our side (that is, weapons).

After that year, Uncle and the family enjoyed long deluxe postings in Rome and Paris, where “B” followed a career, he would tell me, in “public relations.” My three younger cousins were privileged with colorful childhoods overseas. After Richard Nixon came in, “B” was permanently brought home and posted to Spook Central in Washington, where he completed his career. In retirement, he turned to painting full-time and often played piano for his fellow retired spooks and diplomats at their hangout, the Cosmos Club on Mass Avenue, Washington’s Embassy Row.

My cousins, all aging baby boomers now, all turned up, of course, at Auntie’s memorial service, a warmly graceful affair, well-attended by the network of friends she maintained so late in life, and my cousin’s children with their own children, and all the flowering trees in bloom, and lovely spoken remembrances of the great lady. The crowd was very largely of the Washington insider liberal Democrat persuasion, you understand, but there was close-to-zero political chitchat in the cocktail session that followed. Back during the 2020 election, all three cousins had sent me archly opprobrious emails objecting to my support of Mr. Trump against the charming and dynamic “Joe Biden.” They were super-pissed off that their writer-cousin had turned into a right-wing extremist. But all that was put aside, possibly even forgiven, this day of sweet memoriam.

That out of the way, my more pertinent point du jour is about the journey from where I live in upstate New York to Washington DC and back. I made the trip by car because the affordable airplane routes all involved absurd hours-long connecting layovers in far-flung cities at fantastic prices, and there were no seats left on the soviet-grade Amtrak train service at any times that worked. It’s been a while since I traveled the New York to Washington corridor on-the-ground in a car, and the experience was maximally horrifying.

The various Departments of Transportation of New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Maryland are working out there at heroic scale to upgrade their stretches of the interstate highways involved. The amount of concrete, steel, and asphalt getting laid down now boggles the mind, considering the essential bankruptcy at all levels of government. But more to point, they are doing this at the very time when the age of mass-motoring is drawing to close.

Government itself is now militating against it, with its poorly thought-out crusade against the internal combustion engine and its promotion of electric cars that Americans can’t afford to buy, while the electric grid can’t possibly support all that proposed battery-charging at the mass scale. (Let’s leave aside for now whatever nefarious influence the World Economic Forum exerts on all this). In any case, the standard of living is crashing in Western Civ now. Incomes are down, or lost altogether, inflation is up, and with it the price of cars. The car industry has reached its limit for trick loan schemes that enable the tapped-out middle-class to regularly replace their vehicles. Not to put too fine a point on it, the system is f**ked.

And yet, here we are, building ever more motoring infrastructure as if none of this is happening. The reason, naturally, is that immense bureaucracies like the DOTs have minds of their own. They are not responding to conditions as they are; they are carrying out plans that were made years ago when conditions and assumptions were different. Those plans have implacable momentum. You can see how all this is going to end badly.

Now, I planned my return trip with a layover night outside Philadelphia, so I could leave before the crack-of-dawn Easter Sunday, when few other cars would be on the road. That proved to be the case. But even nearly alone on the highway, and with pretty good navigational skills of my own, plus the help of GPS, I made several wrong turns. This was mostly because the signage contradicted the lady robot’s voice issuing instructions, as well as my own geographical heuristics, especially in the long stretch north up the whole length of New Jersey. There were a few times I felt I barely escaped getting killed making last-second turns. There were extended moments when I thought: I’m in Hell.

Anyway, I made it home alive and undamaged. I’d never want to do that trip again, and the way things are going, I may not have to. The Easter holiday was a strange hiatus in a year that promises fantastic turbulence in public affairs, including especially American politics and our wobbling economy. Financial markets and banks managed to levitate through the first weeks of springtime, but there is a bad odor of imminent failure in the air, at the same time that government’s war against its own citizens shows signs of hardening into the threat of digital currency, renewed efforts at censorship, persecution of political opponents, and a growing awareness of “vaccine” caused death. The natives are restless, the animals are stirring. Events creep toward criticality."