Thursday, March 2, 2023

"How It Really Is"

 

"Ukrainians Are Falling Apart"

Straight Calls with Douglas Macgregor, 3/2/23:
"Ukrainians Are Falling Apart"
"Your home for analysis of breaking news and in-depth discussion of current geopolitical events in the United States and the world. Russia-Ukraine conflict latest news update with Colonel Douglas Macgregor."
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Full screen recommended.
Redacted, 3/2/23:
"Putin Warns STOP This Now As 
NATO Crosses Red Line In Ukraine"
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Excerpt: "There are numerous accounts from returning mercenary soldiers about what is really going on. Ukrainians slaughtering Russians who surrender. I have videos so horrible of crucifying Russian soldiers and then burning them alive. Zelensky then wants to put out the bullshit that Russia is committing war crimes?"
Don't you dare look away! This is what YOU, Good Citizen, 
and all of us, have paid at least $121 BILLION for. Proud?

Bill Bonner, "The Panic Pivot"

"The Panic Pivot"
Sooner or later, the real massacre will begin...
By Bill Bonner

San Martin, Argentina - "A few years ago, we developed what we called Bad Guy Theory (BGT). The idea was that there are good guys and bad guys. The bad guys change, of course. Germany was bad in 1940. Now it is good. Ditto with Japan. Today, Russia and China are bad. The bad guys come and go. But the good guy – the USA, the “one, indispensable nation” – never changes. And since good guys do only good things, bad things miraculously become good things when they do them. Such as, invading Iraq. Or blowing up other peoples’ pipelines. Or assassinating their leaders. Without noticing, the good guy becomes a bad guy.

The Panic Pivot: We’ll come back to that as we puzzle out how China became a bad guy…what America is becoming…and why you should brace yourself as the US rehearses the unhappy comeuppance of empires throughout the ages. But today, let us check in on how the financial reckoning is going.

Our hypothesis: the inflation Indians are off the reservation. The Fed will continue to raise rates, trying to get them under control, until the economy reaches a crisis point. Then, it will panic and ‘pivot’ towards more money-printing.

Here’s one little item from YahooFinance: "Car Debt Is Piling Up as More Americans Owe Thousands More Than Vehicles Are Worth." "The build-up in negative equity - or the amount that debt exceeds a vehicle’s value - is rattling consumers and raising alarms within the industry. Though it’s not unusual for drivers to carry negative equity, some dealers say more people are arriving at their lots up to $10,000 underwater, or “upside down,” on their trade-ins. They’re buying at still-sky-high prices and rolling debt from one car to another and even onto a third. Loans are commonly stretching to seven years.

“As trade-in values begin to cool, each month more and more consumers will find themselves falling from positive to negative equity,” said Ivan Drury, director of insights at auto-market researcher Edmunds. “Unless American car shoppers break their habit of buying again too soon, we’ll see the negative equity tide continue to rise.”

Disruptors Disrupted: As cars decline in value, so does the car-selling industry. Carvana – the ‘disruptor” that was once worth $31 billion has lost 96% of its value. It’s lost money every year since it was created in 2014. A $100 million loss one year, $150 million the next. But last year, it lost $1.5 billion, for a total loss of $2.107 billion during its career. Meanwhile, another ‘disruptor,’ WeWork, has wiped out $15.5 billion of capital since it began in 2016.

These are not just the ‘paper’ losses of stock market speculators. This is real wealth – time and resources – squandered on bad ideas, a total of more than $17 billion by these two companies alone. That’s about what the total national debt was during the Dust Bowl drought of 1931 (not adjusted for inflation). Back then, the debt-to-GDP ratio was a mere 22%.

While speculators lose money, so does the middle class; its houses are going down as well as its cars. Mortgage applications are at their lowest level since 1995, while mortgage payments rose 26% last year…and the average sale price fell 16% since last July. Home sales fell for the last 12 months straight…and are now 37% below their level of a year ago…the biggest decline on record.

The Real Massacre: And here’s Breitbart, adding it up: "Homeowners in the United States have lost $2.3 trillion in total value since its peak in June, according to an analysis from Redfin. “The total value of U.S. homes was $45.3 trillion at the end of 2022, down 4.9% ($2.3 trillion) from a record high of $47.7 trillion in June,” an analysis of the Redfin Housing Value Index claimed. The research indicated that the drop in total valuation across the United States is the “largest” drop in total percentage terms from June to December since 2008."

What can desperate consumers do? Borrow! Credit card balances just took their biggest jump since the 2001 recession. Total debt for millennials is up 27% since 2019, the most for any age group. Millennials also had the highest delinquency rate. In other words, so far, so good. Both the rich (investors) and the not-so-rich (the middle class) are getting scalped.

Sooner or later, we think, the real massacre will begin…and the Fed cavalry will, alas, come to the rescue…like Custer to the Little Big Horn. Stay tuned."

"It's Coming Apart: The Economy, World Markets, The Global Financial System"

Gregory Mannarino, 3/2/23:
"It's Coming Apart: The Economy,
 World Markets, The Global Financial System"
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"Saving Where We Can At Kroger! Major Price Increases On Food!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, 3/2/23:
"Saving Where We Can At Kroger! 
Major Price Increases On Food!"
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"Col. MacGregor: Ukraine Has Been Destroyed And There's Nothing Left"

Full screen recommended.
Redacted, 3/1/23:
"Col. MacGregor: Ukraine Has 
Been Destroyed And There's Nothing Left"
"Ukrainian president Zelensky just admitted that American troops will be needed to keep Ukraine from total collapse. At the same time NATO announces Ukraine will become a member of the alliance before too long. This is a non-starter for Russian President Putin. Colonel Douglas MacGregor joins Redacted host Clayton Morris for the very latest developments."
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Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Warning: The Coming Collapse Of The Food Supply"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 3/1/23:
"Warning: The Coming Collapse Of The Food Supply"
"Joel Salatin talks about one the greatest threats 
to our food production that no is talking about."
Comments here:

"Used Car Retailer And Subprime Auto Lender Collapse As Car Loan Crisis Intensify"

Full screen recommended.
"Used Car Retailer And Subprime Auto Lender 
Collapse As Car Loan Crisis Intensify"
by Epic Economist

"In the past, America has seen a massive stock market and housing bubble burst – but a car market bubble burst? That’s new. And yes, it seems absurd but that’s what is happening right now. According to Bloomberg, the dominoes are already starting to fall. A few weeks ago, we discussed the “perfect storm” that was brewing for the U.S. auto market. Fitch data revealed that today more Americans can’t afford their car payments than during the peak of the Great Recession. But that wasn’t exactly a surprise, after all, with the highest interest rates in 15 years, auto loans became too expensive for millions of struggling Americans.

Yesterday Bloomberg exposed that the calm before the storm was actually briefer than we all thought. That’s because on Friday, one of the most famous used car retailers in the United States and subprime auto lender, American Car Center, suddenly shut down all of its operations, closing all of its 50 dealerships across 10 states.

The abrupt collapse of the auto lender and car retailer was likely the first of many and highlights the deteriorating state of the subprime auto loan market. Millions of people are starting to fall behind on their car payments, and the distress cycle is rapidly accelerating.

According to Cox Automotive, 7.11% of subprime loans were severely delinquent in the last month, up from 6.75% in the month prior and from 5.48% in the same period a year ago. Even more concerning, the 7.11% severe delinquency rate was the highest monthly figure since Cox began tracking the data in 2006. A seriously delinquent auto loan means the borrower is more than 90 days behind on payments.

On top of that, IBIS World data shows that about US$19.6 billion of subprime auto loans are expected to be written in the U.S. in 2023. This amount represents only about 11% of the overall U.S. auto market of US$173.2 billion, but the sharp increase in delinquencies among the riskiest auto borrowers could very well be a leading indicator of broader auto loan problems and pose a threat to the overall economy.

Even though the idea of a car market bubble seems quite absurd, as opposed to a stock or housing bubble. That’s the perfect way to define what this is. Encouraged by easy credit conditions, Americans have borrowed huge amounts of money for their cars over the past two decades. At the turn of the millennium, Americans had less than $600 billion in motor-vehicle loans outstanding, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. By the end of 2022, Americans owed just shy of $1.4 trillion on car debt, a full doubling in barely a decade. People have been borrowing more money per vehicle — from about $26,000 in 2010 to $$40,155 in January — an exponential spike!

However, interest rates for auto loans have gone from 7.4 percent to 9 percent in a year, and monthly payments from $506 to $600. Seven-year loans are gaining in popularity. But not everyone can shoulder the higher monthly payments, as well as higher down payments, so car sales, and car prices, are crashing.

The truth is that auto loans have long been what people in the industry call “a shitshow.” When lenders face a day of reckoning for all of these bad loans, shockwaves will ripple through financial markets and panic will ensue. Now it’s understandable why Tesla CEO said the auto loan crisis would trigger “the biggest financial crisis ever”. The outlook is looking gloomier by the day, and now we’re waiting to see the next domino to fall."
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Musical Interlude: Dire Straits, "Private Investigations"

Dire Straits, "Private Investigations"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Over 400,000 light years across NGC 6872 is an enormous spiral galaxy, at least 4 times the size of our own very large Milky Way. About 200 million light-years distant, toward the southern constellation Pavo, the Peacock, the remarkable galaxy’s stretched out shape is due to its ongoing gravitational interaction, likely leading to an eventual merger, with the nearby smaller galaxy IC 4970. IC 4970 is seen just below and right of the giant galaxy’s core in this cosmic color portrait from the 8 meter Gemini South telescope in Chile.
The idea to image this titanic galaxy collision comes from a winning contest essay submitted to the Gemini Observatory by the Sydney Girls High School Astronomy Club. In addition to inspirational aspects and aesthetics, club members argued that a color image would be more than just a pretty picture. In their winning essay they noted that “If enough color data is obtained in the image it may reveal easily accessible information about the different populations of stars, star formation, relative rate of star formation due to the interaction, and the extent of dust and gas present in these galaxies.”

Chet Raymo, “The Uses of Enchantment”

“The Uses of Enchantment”
by Chet Raymo

“There was a time when every wood, every tree, was thought to be inhabited by spirits called dryads, every pool and stream by naiads. Even not so long ago, our road here in Ireland was called “the fairies’ road.” The world, we say, was enchanted - every stone and plant infused with an animate spirit. Science put paid to all that, chased the spirits from their woods and pools, drove the fairies from their hills. Disenchanted the landscape. Well, maybe not. It depends on how you define enchantment.

Remember those spider webs I wrote about the other day, made visible by dew? Once the sun burned away the mist and the dew evaporated, the webs became invisible. But of course they are still there, a thousand silken snares, each with its resident spider. As I walked down the drive today I sensed their presence - the field alive with invisible spirits, a thousand arachnoid dryads crouching in their bowers.

The key to enchantment is to be aware of what can’t be seen. The spiders in their webs. The spinnerets extruding gossamer. The DNA zipping and unzipping in each cell of the spiders’ bodies, the amino acids, A and T, G and C, grasping hands in their dervish dance. The atoms in their resonant vibrations.

“What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well,” wrote Antoine De Saint-Exupery. The key to enchantment is to never stop thinking about the well.”

The Poet: William Stafford, ”Today”

”Today”

“The ordinary miracles begin. Somewhere
a signal arrives: “Now,” and the rays
come down. A tomorrow has come. Open
your hands, lift them: morning rings
all the doorbells; porches are cells for prayer.
Religion has touched your throat. Not the same now,
you could close your eyes and go on full of light.
And it is already begun, the chord
that will shiver glass, the song full of time
bending above us. Outside, a sign:
a bird intervenes; the wings tell the air,
“Be warm.” No one is out there, but a giant
has passed through town, widening streets, touching
the ground, shouldering away the stars.”
- William Stafford

"Making Your Best Guess"

"Making Your Best Guess"
by Arthur Silber

"We are not gods, and we are not omniscient. We cannot foretell the future with certainty. Most often, cultural and political changes are terribly complex. It can be notoriously difficult to predict exactly where a trend will take us, and we can be mistaken. We do the best we can: if we wish to address certain issues seriously, we study history, and we read everything that might shed light on our concerns. We consult what the best thinkers of our time and of earlier times have said and written. We challenge everyone's assumptions, including most especially our own. That last is often very difficult. If we care enough, we do our best to disprove our own case. In that way, we find out how strong our case is, and where its weaknesses may lie.

Barring extraordinary circumstances, we cannot be certain that a particular development represents a critical turning point at the time it occurs. If we dare to say, "This is the moment the battle was lost," only future events will prove whether we were correct. We do the best we can, based on our understanding of how similar events have unfolded in the past, and in light of our understanding of the underlying principles in play. We can be wrong."

"Food Stamps End For Millions Of Poor People; Kohls"

Jeremiah Babe, 3/1/23:
"Food Stamps End For Millions Of Poor People; Kohls"
Comments here:

"Something Much Worse Than A Recession Is Coming...Just Be Ready For It!"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 3/1/23:
"Something Much Worse Than A Recession 
Is Coming...Just Be Ready For It!"
Comments here:

The Daily "Near You?"

Plainfield, New Jersey, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Discipline, Romans, And Spending All The Money"

"Discipline, Romans, And Spending All The Money"
By John Wilder

"Self-discipline is hard, but it starts with the smallest step. Even (the dead) Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius in his book "Meditations" talked about how hard it was to get out of bed in the morning. Marcus talked about how warm and comfy he was under the covers, and how he’d like to stay there, curled up. In then end, though, he got up because he had responsibility to govern the Empire that was a bit more important than his desire to be comfy.

Me? There are some mornings I would have given up Gaul for another fifteen minutes. Okay, maybe not Gaul because of the food, but definitely Judea.

Marcus did the tough (maybe he had a hangover?) thing because he had a responsibility to millions of citizens to do his very best for them, and as nearly as I can determine, he took that seriously. Plus? It’s good to be the Emperor. I hear they didn’t have to wait in the drive through for Chicken McNuggets® and always got enough Hot Mustard™ sauce.

The difficult part of discipline is that it requires, well, discipline. Getting good things in life is difficult – that’s why we work for them. And that’s why it’s called work. It’s tough. But when the seeds are planted, cared for, and weeded, then at harvest it’s time to reap the rewards. Discipline is like that. Heck, some sort of east Asian place that I can’t be bothered to look up has a proverb that says that, “A woman who marries a man who works hard every day will never starve.”

I don’t think that was China, because if it was China, they have been starving every century by the tens of millions, especially when they embarked on the Chinese Diet Plan called Communism. Maybe it was Puerto Rico? Or Applebee’s™? Probably not. But I think it might have ended in a vowel, but not Y, because that’s sometimes only a vowel, and I don’t think that Asians use the same fonts.

So, if even a dead Roman can figure it out, why can’t we? The latest bouts of fiscal insanity in the United States have made me think that none of them have read Marcus Aurelius, or maybe even can read. What triggered this post is the recent Supreme Court Case about ghosts. Oh, wait, that’s later. No, student loans.

Student loans in the United States are a particularly horrible thing that gives money to Leftist professors so that they can indoctrinate youth but the youth has to pay for it until they lose all their teeth or pay it off. I think that was in the terms and conditions of my student loans, but I can’t be exactly sure, since after I signed my name, they gave me $7,500. Duh.

The most pernicious thing about student loans is that they live forever. I paid mine off in January, 2013. I paid ahead, but didn’t want to pay them off completely if the world ended in December, 2012 (which was a thing). Oddly, this is a true story, and illustrates how far I’m willing to take a joke.

But student loan forgiveness is just the tip of the iceberg. For the last five or so years of my life, the government (both Right and Left) has been like a fat girl who decides on a Tuesday night that the diet is over. That cookie dough? Sure. I can eat a tube or two. Covered in frosting. Oh, and I’ll just tidy up the frosting container so it doesn’t go bad. If you’ve given up, why not go all in?

The government (again, both Right and Left) has decided that there is no limit. Every Tuesday for them is time to give Ukraine more money for...(spins wheel) dental x-ray infrastructure. Will $23 billion cover that? Sure, if it were just Ukraine, that would be one thing. But it’s not just that. Biden’s Build Back Better means that we’ll just burn cash to make us warm if we run out of oil.

If I seem a bit cynical, it’s because that at every single turn in my life, that I’ve seen fiscal discipline further erode, and money fly a bit freer each day. At no point have I ever seen (outside of Ron and Rand Paul) and politician say, “stop”. Apparently, when elected to Congress, the “spend money on everything light” blinks on the dashboard of their cars.

There is no discipline. There is no pretending to have discipline. It’s all just comfy warm covers and Chicken McNuggies™ while every sense of fiscal discipline is overridden by another trip of the spoon in the Pillsbury™ chocolate frosting.

But that’s okay. I’m sure it will end fine. Where’s the frosting? I think I want to sleep late today. Oh, but have we spent enough money on Ukraine?"

"Of All Tyrannies..."

"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. They may be more likely to go to Heaven yet at the same time likelier to make a Hell of earth. This very kindness stings with intolerable insult. To be "cured" against one's will and cured of states which we may not regard as disease is to be put on a level of those who have not yet reached the age of reason or those who never will; to be classed with infants, imbeciles, and domestic animals." 
- C.S. Lewis

"Sex, Drugs & Rock 'n' Roll"

"Sex, Drugs & Rock 'n' Roll"
by Jeff Thomas

"The baby-boomer generation were perhaps the most privileged generation that the US has ever spawned. Their fathers returned from World War II, eager to get married, buy a house and start a family. The economy was booming, as, during the early years of the war, the US wisely stayed out, but provided tanks, helmets and even toothbrushes to those who were directly involved in the fray.

What’s more, they didn’t accept pound notes or francs; they accepted only gold. So, at the end of the war, when the manufacturing cities of Europe had been destroyed by bombs, the male populations decimated and the governments broke, the US was on a roll. They had most of the world’s gold and had first-rate manufacturing facilities that only had to switch from making jeeps and rifles to making cars and televisions. That wave of wealth allowed the young married couples to spoil their children with whatever they wanted.

The boomer generation reached their teens in the 1960s, and having grown accustomed to receiving whatever they wanted in life, they were young adults and wanted to party. The phrase, "sex, drugs and rock ‘n’ roll" was coined and it was an apt one. Young Americans opted for plenty of all three. But of course, somewhere in their twenties, most boomers got married themselves and settled into a new life in which they took on professions and sought wealth. Many became bankers, lawyers, trust officers and politicians.

But, although they were now adults, they were not always responsible adults. There was a new objective – money – and they wanted lots of it. The party was to continue, but on a much more extravagant scale. And again, they were in luck, since back in 1944, the US had strong-armed Europe into accepting the Bretton Woods agreement, which made the US dollar the default currency.

Later, in the 1970s, the US was successful in making the dollar the petrodollar – the currency through which oil was traded. And in 1973, the SWIFT system was created, which, although centered in Brussels, was controlled primarily by the US.

If a national leader did not play ball with the US, he could be sanctioned. The US would threaten to cut him out of SWIFT, making international trade impossible for him. And if a small country did not tax its people as the US did, it could also be threatened with the loss of SWIFT.

The US was rolling in dough, as the saying goes, but it wasn’t sufficient for the boomers. Through the creation of debt, they were able to make the party bigger and better. The boomers, who were now older and had become financiers, changed the US from the biggest creditor nation in the 1950s, to the biggest debtor nation a few decades later. By the 1990s, the boomers had financed the party with a powerful trio of financial weapons: the default currency, the petrodollar and SWIFT.

But all parties must end. Along the way, Europe had grown tired of being dictated to by its war ally and was fed up with being expected to support US sanctions against other countries, that were often their trading partners. Instead of the US being the helpful rich friend, it was becoming a liability. Further, Russia had recovered from its 1991 Soviet debacle and was very much on the rise – leaner, meaner, and ready to stand toe-to-toe with the US.

And China had awoken from its Maoist slumber and was charging ahead both productively and economically at a faster rate than the world had ever seen. By 2015, it had overtaken the US as the world’s foremost producer.

But this had zero impact on US bluster. Its leaders continued to act like the big boy on the block and, if anything, became more militarily aggressive and economically threatening. Then the world at large began, slowly but deliberately, to prune the US domination.

A rift began to grow between the US and Saudi Arabia, an alliance that made the petrodollar possible. Soon, Iraq, Libya and other Middle Eastern countries began to accept other currencies and/or gold in payment for oil. This caused the US to invade them in the hope of creating puppet regimes that would stick to the US rules. But after decades of war in a host of Middle Eastern countries, with no end in sight, the US has not gained any petrodollar ground. It has, however, trashed several countries, made the US hated worldwide for its aggression and gotten itself into a level of debt that is now beyond repayment.

Still, the US controlled SWIFT, but in 2014, Russia began to develop its own payment system, SPFS, in response to Washington’s threats to cut Russia from the SWIFT system. Then, in 2015, China introduced its own international payments system – CIPS – and began to offer it to Russia, India and others for trade. In 2019, the EU made a surprise move, announcing its own payment system, INSTEX, into which all of Europe was invited, but the US was not. Only months later, when the US cut Iran from SWIFT, Russia jumped in and offered SPFS to them, so that they could trade throughout the world, if not with the US.

If it appears that the US has gone out on a limb and is now in the process of sawing off that limb, that would be an accurate perception. Still, for the moment, the US retains the third leg of its economic strength. The dollar is still the default currency in the world and the US news media eagerly provide updates that confirm that the dollar is rising against the other major currencies in the world. The decline of these currencies is due to the fact that the countries that produce them have also attended the party for decades and have also gotten heavily into debt. The ability to expand that debt is beginning to crumble, resulting in currency devaluations.

So, will the default dollar save the US, and allow the party to continue? Well, no. In fact the dollar is in far greater trouble than the other major currencies, but it has a bit more lead time before it collapses. I often describe the dollar as being "the best-looking horse in the glue factory." It will be the last to fall, but will most assuredly do so.

When this particular party ends, it will be one for the record books. In its wake, it will leave a generation of now-aging Americans who have always been able to have their cake and eat it, too. As a result, they’ll be unable to cope with the economic hangover that they’ll be facing. This suggests that the recovery will take a very long time – a generation or more. For those who plan long-term, the US will be a poor choice as regards progress and prosperity for a long time to come."

"Grand Crusades and Deep State Clusters"

"Grand Crusades and Deep State Clusters"
How war and inflation are dragging 
the US Empire to rack and ruin
by Bill Bonner

"For the first time in US history, an ex-president described the heavy hand of the “Deep State” on America’s main institutions, and denounced the sinister influence of the war lobby on the situation in the Ukraine."
~ France Soir

San Martin, Argentina - "The market is mostly calm. The general thinking seems to be that the Fed will muddle towards higher rates and the economy will muddle towards adjusting to them. No crash yet! But investors are slowly getting the message: don’t fight the Fed.

Cluster Incoming: As we saw yesterday, when you look at stocks priced in gold, the whole boom of the last 22 years disappears. And now, with more debt than ever before…more inflation than we’ve seen in 40 years (which doesn’t seem to be going away)…higher deficits, higher stock prices, lower earnings, less productivity, and more quackery, incompetence and nonsense than ever…and now that the Fed is no longer supporting the stock market…and both stocks and bonds seem to have entered a new Primary Trend…both downward…you could easily come to the conclusion that the foreseeable future is not likely to be a picnic for investors.

That is the investment outlook as it is today. But wait…there’s more. And here is where the ‘cluster’ comes into view. For while the stock market gets whacked by an unpleasant spell of financial reckoning, there are other things ready to whack the economy and the whole nation.

One is, of course, the Great Crusade to ‘save the planet.’ The planet is in absolutely no danger. But many of the people who live on it – particularly, the elite who control its major governments, media, and universities – believe that we would be better off if we stop ‘global warming’ before we are all burned to a crisp.

Whether there is a real problem or not is open to some question…as is the cost…and the benefit. China’s Great Leap Forward cost some 50 million lives. The Covid lockdowns cost unknown trillions in lost output. How much collateral damage this Green Crusade will inflict, we will find out anon. Today we will look at another part of the cluster, that is: the decline and fall of the US empire.

Graceless Indignity: All empires must die. In our view, the US is now in decline, and has been losing muscle mass since 1999. Of course, a national renewal is not out of the question; a few major policy changes – major cuts to Social Security, Medicaid, and the Pentagon, balanced budgets, a solid dollar, honest interest rates, and a more modest foreign policy – could restore real growth and prosperity. But for now, if there’s one thing our elites all agree about, it’s that no major changes are urgently needed. They like the system as it is. No redistribution of power…or money…required.

All of us eventually get feeble. The best we can hope for is that we are able to do it with grace and dignity. Empires are no different. As long-term sufferers know, we are no fans of Donald Trump. When in office, we often used the words of his own subordinates to mock him as a ‘moron’ or a ‘jackass.’ And while we don’t recant, we recognize that sometimes the fool is the wisest of all.

No, we are not joining the Trump Worshippers…nor have we been infected with Trump Derangement Syndrome. But Trump has just said something important. And if we relied exclusively on the US mainstream press we wouldn’t even know it.

It was only a couple of weeks ago that the press drowned the biggest story to come along in many years: Sy Hersh reported that the Biden team had pulled off the most reckless, irresponsible, and lawless caper in US history. It blew up the Nord Stream pipeline. Was Hersh right? The feds have made no attempt, so far, to put Hersh in prison with other whistleblowers – after all, he claimed to have revealed their most sensitive, super classified information – for an obvious reason. They’d have to admit he was right.

War Be With You: We bring it up, because the complicity of the press is a big part of the cluster story. Here’s a report from a Knight Foundation survey: "…findings from the American Views 2020 report showed that Americans were “very concerned” about increasing political bias in news coverage and the perception that news organizations “push an agenda.”

Do they have an agenda? You bet. None of the major media dare to challenge the empire’s ‘war and inflation’ agenda. None cared to investigate Sy Hersh’s charges more carefully…or even mention them. Nor do they bother to present a balanced, impartial view of the Ukraine conflict. And now, they join in with the imperial jingo-buskers to designate China as the Next Big Enemy.

Even someone as dim as Donald Trump can see that this program will be a disaster. But when he gave one of the most important foreign policy rants of any president since Dwight Eisenhower…we didn’t see a word about it…except in the French press, via American journalist Gilbert Doctorow.

In an amazing tweet, Trump goes on the attack…against the Deep State, the Pentagon, the globalists, NATO, Victoria Nuland, the warmongers and the “America Last” politicians.
From a political perspective, Trump – whose instincts for popular sentiment are as keen as anyone’s – is betting that a large segment of the US population agrees with him. The warmongers have spent trillions, getting us into unwinnable, dangerous wars. ‘The People’ may be getting sick of paying for them.  

But most likely, with the collusion of the press…almost no opposition in Congress…and the irresistible lobbying power of the military/industrial complex…a contrary point of view will never even get a hearing…and the dangerous cluster will develop…unmolested.   

To make our point of view clear…we believe that just as the powers-that-be will not permit the Fed to stop inflation…nor will they allow the US to take its place among the world’s peaceful nations.  Too much of their money, reputations and status depends on war and inflation. War keeps the money headed to their main industries. Inflation is how they pay for it.  And the mainstream press – a vital part of the elite – keeps quiet. More to come..."

"How It Really Is"

"If only"... you don't stop because you can't stop.
If you do it's all over. It's all over anyway, you're just buying time.
Tell me I'm wrong...

Gregory Mannarino, "Meltdown: The Economy Is Breaking Faster, Undeniable Proof!"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 3/1/23:
"Meltdown: The Economy Is Breaking Faster, 
Undeniable Proof!"
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"Homes Are Not Selling"

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Dan, iAllegedly 3/1/23:
"Homes Are Not Selling"
"It’s happening much faster than expected. The housing market is crashing at a record pace. Here in Orange County California the number of transactions dropped by a staggering 42%."
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"Massive Price Increases At Target! This Is Ridiculous! What's Next!?"

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Adventures With Danno, 3/1/23:
"Massive Price Increases At Target! 
This Is Ridiculous! What's Next!?"
Comments here:
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Full screen recommended.
Travelling with Russell, 3/1/23:
"Trying the Russian Big Mac (Hit) 
for the First Time: How Was It?"
"After 9 months of waiting Vkusna/Tochka finally released the Russian Big Mac, known as the Big Hit, a play on the original Big Mac made famous by McDonalds for so many years. How does it taste? Together we're going to find out."
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"20 Prepping Items That Will Skyrocket In Price This Year"

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"20 Prepping Items That Will 
Skyrocket In Price This Year"
by Epic Economist

"We all need to get ready for the challenges ahead because the combination of trouble in financial markets, an economic downturn, and supply chain shortages are going to cause us more than just a headache in the near future. The ongoing recession may be the beginning of something much bigger, that can change life as we know it. However, it’s also been a challenge to get by month by month. With the price of everyday essentials shooting up due to persistent inflation, surviving in today’s world can be tough, as explained by prepper and collaborator at Ask A Prepper.com, Katherine Paterson. But knowing which items will likely increase in price allow us to make more informed decisions and choose what to prioritize, and where we can save some money. Being prepared is about planning in advance, budgeting, and anticipating our future needs.

You must know by now that cereal-based foods like oats, rice, wheat, and corn are in short supply globally. The combination of extreme weather events that devastated crops in California and in many other parts of the world, including India and Pakistan, as well as the ripple effects of the Ukraine crisis, which led to sanctions on Russian exports and a collapse in production in Ukraine, have resulted in shortages of these basic staples that are so important for preppers and non-preppers. Cereals are rich in fiber, protein, antioxidants, vitamins, and minerals, and a diet rich in cereals helps our bodies to stay in balance and our metabolism to have a better performance. They also have a long shelf life if you store them properly, so they are perfect to stockpile for the long run. However, demand is staying strong while supplies continue to shrink, so we are already seeing some disturbing price fluctuations right now, and they are likely to intensify as inventories get smaller in the coming months. So if you’re running low, take the chance to replenish your pantry before prices go even higher, because they will remain like that for quite some time.

The global industry is facing a severe shortage of raw materials, amongst them, aluminum has been particularly hard hit by supply and demand imbalances. That is affecting many food makers, which are having to pay higher costs for aluminum cans in this tight environment. Canned foods are very practical, easy to store, and a perfect alternative for those who are planning for the longer term. But don’t expect them to be any cheaper than they are right now. With production failing to keep pace with the needs of the industry, the cost of all canned foods and beverages is likely to increase even more than it already did last year.

Getting ready before the worst happens will allow you to be safe from all the craziness that may ensue out there, when the dominoes start to fall. We hope these list has been helpful to you, and you're welcome to share your prepping insights in the comment section down below. Our society will certainly need all the help it can get after chaos start to take over our streets. A day of reckoning is at the door and the collapse will be brutal. That’s why in today’s video, we listed several products that will be crucial for your survival now and later on that are about to face significant price hikes over the next few weeks and months. So take notes, be on the lookout for sales, and stock up when possible."
Comments here:

"Breaking News: US Nuclear Base Purged; Moscow Air Raid; ICBMs On The Move; Bakhmut Collapse"

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Canadian Prepper, 2/28/23:
"Breaking News: US Nuclear Base Purged; 
Moscow Air Raid; ICBMs On The Move; Bakhmut Collapse"
Comments here:

"If You Can't Afford A Car You Can't Afford A House - Home Prices Are Only Going Down"

Jeremiah Babe, 2/28/23:
"If You Can't Afford A Car You Can't Afford A House -
 Home Prices Are Only Going Down"
Comments here:

Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Musical Interlude: 2002, "Wait For Me"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "Wait For Me"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Point your telescope toward the high flying constellation Pegasus and you can find this expanse of Milky Way stars and distant galaxies. Centered on NGC 7814, the pretty field of view would almost be covered by a full moon. NGC 7814 is sometimes called the Little Sombrero for its resemblance to the brighter more famous M104, the Sombrero Galaxy.
Both Sombrero and Little Sombrero are spiral galaxies seen edge-on, and both have extensive central bulges cut by a thinner disk with dust lanes in silhouette. In fact, NGC 7814 is some 40 million light-years away and an estimated 60,000 light-years across. That actually makes the Little Sombrero about the same physical size as its better known namesake, appearing to be smaller and fainter only because it is farther away. A very faint dwarf galaxy, potentially a satellite of NGC 7814, is revealed in the deep exposure just below the Little Sombrero.”

Chet Raymo, "On Saying 'I Don't Know'"

"On Saying 'I Don't Know'"
by Chet Raymo

“Johannes Kepler is best known for figuring out the laws of planetary motion. In 1610, he published a little book called “The Six-Cornered Snowflake” that asked an even more fundamental question: How do visible forms arise? He wrote: "There must be some definite reason why, whenever snow begins to fall, its initial formation is invariably in the shape of a six-pointed starlet. For if it happens by chance, why do they not fall just as well with five corners or with seven?"

All around him Kepler saw beautiful shapes in nature: six-pointed snowflakes, the elliptical orbits of the planets, the hexagonal honeycombs of bees, the twelve-sided shape of pomegranate seeds. Why? he asks. Why does the stuff of the universe arrange itself into five-petaled flowers, spiral galaxies, double-helix DNA, rhomboid crystals, the rainbow's arc? Why the five-fingered, five-toed, bilaterally symmetric beauty of the newborn child? Why?

Kepler struggles with the problem, and along the way he stumbles onto sphere-packing. Why do pomegranate seeds have twelve flat sides? Because in the growing pomegranate fruit the seeds are squeezed into the smallest possible space. Start with spherical seeds, pack them as efficiently as possible with each sphere touching twelve neighbors. Then squeeze. Voila! And so he goes, convincing us, for example, that the bee's honeycomb has six sides because that's the way to make honey cells with the least amount of wax. His book is a tour-de-force of playful mathematics.

In the end, Kepler admits defeat in understanding the snowflake's six points, but he thinks he knows what's behind all of the beautiful forms of nature: A universal spirit pervading and shaping everything that exists. He calls it nature's "formative capacity." We would be inclined to say that Kepler was just giving a fancy name to something he couldn't explain. To the modern mind, "formative capacity" sounds like empty words. 

We can do somewhat better. For example, we explain the shape of snowflakes by the shape of water molecules, and we explain the shape of water molecules with the mathematical laws of quantum physics. Since Kepler's time, we have made impressive progress towards understanding the visible forms of snowflakes, crystals, rainbows, and newborn babes by probing ever deeper into the heart of matter. But we are probably no closer than Kepler to answering the ultimate questions: What is the reason for the curious connection between nature and mathematics? Why are the mathematical laws of nature one thing rather than another? Why does the universe exist at all? Like Kepler, we can give it a name, but the most forthright answer is simply: I don't know.”

"What Keeps You Going..."

"What keeps you going isn't some fine destination but just the road you're on, and the fact that you know how to drive. You keep your eyes open, you see this damned-to-hell world you got born into, and you ask yourself, 'What life can I live that will let me breathe in and out and love somebody or something and not run off screaming into the woods?'"
 - Barbara Kingsolver

The Poet: Edward Hirsch, "I Was Never Able To Pray"

"I Was Never Able To Pray"

"Wheel me down to the shore 
where the lighthouse was abandoned 
and the moon tolls in the rafters.
Let me hear the wind paging through the trees,
and see the stars flaring out, one by one, 
like the forgotten faces of the dead.
I was never able to pray, 
but let me inscribe my name 
in the book of waves,
and then stare into the dome 
of a sky that never ends, 
and see my voice sail into the night."
- Edward Hirsch

The Daily "Near You?"

Dysart, Iowa, USA. Thanks or stopping by!

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