Thursday, January 26, 2023

"Debts, Deficits... and Death to the Middle Class"

"Debts, Deficits... and Death to the Middle Class"
Inflation to the left, housing crisis to the right, 
America's workers get squeezed...
by Bill Bonner and Joel Bowman

Normandy, France - "Let’s slow down for a moment and take stock. Investors are mostly bewildered, but hoping that inflation has peaked out and the Fed will soon ease up. Easing up seems likely to us…but not decisive. There’s more to the story, which we will come to in a minute. Consumer prices are still rising at an unacceptable rate. And workers – that’s most of us – are still losing ground. Wages are going up. But after inflation, we are poorer.

Meanwhile, real estate, where most people keep most of their wealth, is going down. We saw yesterday that house prices may fall 30% – in line with the last bear market in real estate. Many families only have ‘equity’ of 30%...or less…in their houses. So, the expected drop will wipe out 100% of their accumulated wealth. And most likely, the Fed will continue its ‘tightening,’ forcing those who need to Hypotheses, 1 & 2…

We expect the Fed to continue its rate hikes until one of two things happen. A big bankruptcy, crash on Wall Street, or other financial emergency will cause the Fed to panic and ‘pivot’ towards lower rates. That is our hypothesis number 1: that the Fed will continue to raise rates “until something breaks.”

But there’s another possibility, hypothesis number 2: that the Fed will be forced to raise rates by the federal government. The Fed caused today’s inflation; it is trying to redeem itself by getting it under control. But the elite who control the national government are still very much in spend, spend, spend mode. No cutting back for them. They have elections to win…battles to fight…claptrap to promote and boondoggles to finance. And they are increasingly turning not just to spending money they don’t have…but also to guaranteeing credits they can’t really afford.

Yes, the feds are running huge deficits. If everything goes well, you can expect another $1 trillion shortfall this year. In case of recession – which is likely – the deficit will be much greater. But in addition, they are steering private spending towards their favorite projects by offering an expanding system of tax breaks and credit guarantees. Homeowners are promised public money if they will put solar panels on their roofs, for example, or insulation in their walls. Buyers are given credits if they purchase an EV. Young people are promised loans (later to be forgiven!) if they submit to further indoctrination, rather than finding a job where they might actually learn something useful. to pay higher rates (mortgage rates have already more than doubled since 2020).

The Primary Trend: This spending, direct and indirect, has to be covered. Meaningful tax hikes are out of the question. So, the money has to come from borrowing or printing. Borrowing will drive up interest rates, thereby also increasing the cost of carrying the government’s $31 trillion debt pile. Either way – borrowing or printing – the Fed will be forced to make low-cost funds available.

Thereby, one way or another, along comes the much anticipated ‘pivot.’ And with it comes a new phase of the developing catastrophe, with the Fed supporting federal spending and the economy with lower rates, and probably more QE.

When this happens, many people will see a boom. Stocks are likely to go up. It will seem like an early spring thaw, with flowers coming up everywhere. Investors will remember how the Fed goosed up stocks after the dot.com crash…and again, after the mortgage finance crisis…and again, after the economy was shut down in the Covid Panic. They will think: ‘here we go again.’

But this time, it will probably turn out much differently. In our view, the Primary Trend is what counts. And the primary trend…for stocks…for bonds…for real estate…for the US empire…for the dollar-dominated currency system…for western democracy…for Congress and the administration…for the economy…for standards of living…is down. That’s the ‘cluster’ we’ve been exploring, when many things go wrong together. Night follows day. Bust follows boom. A young man becomes an old man. And a church warden sneaks into a brothel. You get the idea.

In ‘n’ Outta Whack: The Primary Trend is merely the process by which that which was out of whack gets back into whack…and then goes out of whack again. In the bond market, for example, we have seen only two major course reversals in our entire lives. Bonds fell in price from the late ‘40s until the early ‘80s. Then, the primary trend turned…and they rose for the next 4 decades. The second turn only happened in 2020, when they finally topped out, and yields (which go in the opposite direction) began to rise. Since then, the 10-year Treasury bond, the most common brick of the whole modern financial edifice, rose from barely one half of one percent in July 2020, to 3.7% – seven times as much.

We pay attention to the primary trend because 1) it is almost impossible to make any real money by trading in and out, trying to pick winners or anticipate the markets’ moves, 2) primary trend changes destroy fortunes as well as make them, and 3) when you invest in the primary trend you don’t have to pay so much attention to Wall Street.

We should probably add that the primary trend also brings us in contact with the ironies and disappointments of real life. ‘He that did ride so high doth lie so low,’ we say, with the gravitas of a sage, after a crash. What goes up must come down. The last shall be first. The chambermaid will be queen. And the jerk, who gets elected to Congress, eventually gets what he has coming.

So many opportunities to say “I told you so!” But wait…how can the ‘primary trend’ be down…and yet, after the Fed pivots, the economy may boom and stocks may go up? Stay tuned…"
o
Joel’s Note: "After the great housing bonanza of the past couple of years, the US real estate market is finally coming back to earth. Here’s the unhappy headline from Fox Business: "US suffering from the second biggest home price correction of the post-WWII era." "According to the 2022 Housing Affordability Survey, conducted by CATO Institute, “55% of Americans say they cannot afford to buy their home in today's market.”

How could this be? With so much of the fed’s free money sloshing around, isn’t everyone as “rich as an Argentine”? Well, yes… and that’s not a good thing. As usual, Bonner Private Research’s macro analyst, Dan Denning, was on the case… “Let's remember the Fed pumped $1.3 trillion into the housing market by buying mortgage backed securities during the pandemic,” recalls Dan. “This coincided (caused, led to, created) a 40% increase in median existing home prices across the country over 24 months. Median home prices are now over $450,000 in much of the country.”

Take a look at the following chart, which Dan sent to the BPR team this morning. You can see clearly the massive liquidity injection spiking at the end of the recession (gray area) on the right…
Click image for larger size.
Of course, what goes up must eventually revert to the mean… but not before overshooting in the opposite direction.

According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales fell 1.5% in December, marking the 11th straight month of declines. On an annual basis, home sales were down 34%, the largest calendar year drop on record… and that’s despite mortgage rates easing slightly for the month.

Goldman Sachs reckons prices could keep falling for another 6 months before things turn around. But even that may prove to be optimistic…“As much as the Fed wants to blame fiscal policy for underlying inflation (which is true),” cautions Dan, “the asset bubbles they created and which are now bursting will do just as much to wipe out middle class wealth. Bursting bubble with the left hand. Inflation with the right. Over and over.”

"No More Income Tax"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 1/26/23:
"No More Income Tax"
"There is a radical proposal being talked about in the Senate, they want to eliminate the income tax that we pay it altogether. They want to replace it with a national sales tax."
Comments here:

"We Do Choose..."

"All men and women are born, live suffer and die; what distinguishes us one from another is our dreams, whether they be dreams about worldly or unworldly things, and what we do to make them come about... We do not choose to be born. We do not choose our parents. We do not choose our historical epoch, the country of our birth, or the immediate circumstances of our upbringing. We do not, most of us, choose to die; nor do we choose the time and conditions of our death. But within this realm of choicelessness, we do choose how we live."
- Joseph Epstein
"George Harrison knew something most of us didn't and still don't: there is a reality beyond the material world and what we do here and how we treat others affects us eternally. As he sings in "Rising Sun":
"But in the rising sun you can feel your life begin,
Universe at play inside your DNA.
You're a billion years old today.
Oh the rising sun and the place it's coming from
Is inside of you and now your payment's overdue."
Lyrics here:
"Death twitches my ear. 'Live," he says, 'I am coming.'"
~ Virgil (Publius Vergilius Maro)

The Daily "Near You?"

Valley Center, Kansas, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"One Day..."

 

Greg Hunter, "One Giant Financial STD and Everybody is Infected"

"One Giant Financial STD and Everybody is Infected"
by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"Precious metals expert and financial writer Bill Holter said last summer that the Fed rate increases would tank the economy. Everywhere you look you see the economy falling apart. House prices and sales are down. Banks are clocking record losses, vehicle prices are falling and unemployment is rising. The economy has not completely crashed, but it will. Holter explains, “There are over $2,000 trillion worth of derivatives outstanding on a global economy that has maybe a little more than $500 trillion in asset values. So, you have this dog walking around with a gigantic tail that will shake the dog. When derivatives go, it’s a 48-hour event. Who do you think holds all these derivatives? You’ve got the big banks, all the big brokers, all the big insurance companies and they are all going to go down. It’s like one giant financial STD, and everybody is in bed together and everybody is infected.”

Add to this the announcement from Saudi Arabia that it will now accept payment in currencies other than the U.S. dollar and you have the makings of a destabilizing hyperinflationary catastrophe for America. Holter says, “There will be other Arab nations to follow, and that is a huge hit to the artificial demand for the dollar. You had nations all over the world who were forced to buy dollars to buy oil, and that is no longer. Going one step further, these nations who have stockpiled huge dollar portfolios are no longer required to use dollars. What do you think is going to happen to them? Those dollars are going to come back to the U.S., and that will be a hugely inflationary event. It will add many multiples to the dollar pie that thus will dilute the value.”

What is the Fed going to do? Holter says, “The Fed is in a box. They will have to make a choice to save the dollar or save the financial system. They can’t save everything. Something has to break. I have said this for years, and that is there are already losses out there, but somebody has to own up to them. Nobody has had to take the losses because everything has been papered over for so many years where losses were just kicked down the road, and there is no more road.”

Holter goes on to say, “The best way to sum it up is the facade that we have lived our lives through is ending and will completely end. The reality is going to blow people’s minds. That will be a depopulation event because people will be starving. The Fed has always feared a deflationary collapse where it cannot inflate the system. Credit is the foundation to the whole system. If credit cracks and credits collapses, it means the foundation collapses and thus the entire house.”

If everything is collapsing in price, what happens to gold and silver prices? Holter says, “Gold and silver are the only real money on the planet that cannot or will not default.” Holter likes them both and adds, “Silver is the most undervalued asset out there right now.” There is a lot more in the 48-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he goes One-on-One 
with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter. 
o
Related:

"Prices Are Skyrocketing At Kroger! This Is Ridiculous! When Will It End!?"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures Wit Danno, 1/26/23:
"Prices Are Skyrocketing At Kroger! 
This Is Ridiculous! When Will It End!?"
"In today's vlog we are at Kroger and are noticing massive price increases! We are here witnessing skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:
Related:

"The Cost Of Living Has Become Extremely Oppressive And 57 Percent Of Americans Cannot Afford A $1,000 Emergency Expense"

"The Cost Of Living Has Become Extremely 
Oppressive And 57 Percent Of Americans 
Cannot Afford A $1,000 Emergency Expense"
by Michael Snyder

"I don’t have to tell you that your money doesn’t go as far as it once did. You see it every time that you go shopping. Our leaders flooded the system with money and pursued highly inflationary policies for years, and now we are all paying the price. The cost of living has been rising much faster than our incomes have, and this is systematically destroying the middle class. Survey after survey has shown that a solid majority of the population is living paycheck to paycheck, and at this point most U.S. consumers are tapped out. In fact, one brand new survey just discovered that 57 percent of Americans cannot even afford to pay a $1,000 emergency expense

According to Bankrate’s Annual Emergency Fund Report, 68% of people are worried they wouldn’t be able to cover their living expenses for just one month if they lost their primary source of income. And when push comes to shove, the majority (57%) of U.S. adults are currently unable to afford a $1,000 emergency expense. When broken down by generation, Gen Zers (85%) and Millennials (79%) are more likely to be worried about covering an emergency expense.

These numbers are quite ominous, because they clearly demonstrate that we are completely and utterly unprepared for any sort of a major economic downturn. And thanks to the rapidly rising cost of living, we are losing even more ground with each passing month.

Another survey that was recently released found that “earnings are falling behind the cost of living” for 72 percent of middle income families…"Nearly three-quarters, or 72%, of middle-income families say their earnings are falling behind the cost of living, up from 68% a year ago, according to a separate report by Primerica based on a survey of households with incomes between $30,000 and $100,000. A similar share, 74%, said they are unable to save for their future, up from 66% a year ago."

We haven’t experienced anything like this in the United States in decades. When I walked into a Walmart store the other day, I was shocked by how high the prices are now. Isn’t Walmart supposed to be the place with “low prices every day”? Well, the prices were certainly not “low” when I walked through the store. And I was stunned to learn that McDonald’s is now selling one hash brown for three dollars.
Are you kidding me? I am sure that many of you can remember a time when they were 50 cents. Sadly, those days are not coming back.

Food prices are going to continue to go up, and the CEO of Unilever recently admitted that his company has actually “been accelerating the rate of price increases that we’ve had to put into the market”… “For the last 18 months we’ve seen extraordinary input cost pressure … it runs across petrochemical derived products, agricultural derived products, energy, transport, logistics,” he said. “It’s been feeding through for quite some time now and we’ve been accelerating the rate of price increases that we’ve had to put into the market,” he added."

That doesn’t sound good at all. And he also ominously warned that “there’s more inflationary pressure coming”…"Unilever’s view, he said, was that “we know for sure there’s more inflationary pressure coming through in our input costs.”

As food prices continue to rise, these big companies are going to look for ways to reduce input costs. One way that they are going to do that is by starting to put crushed bugs in our food. I know that this may sound really bizarre to you, but this is already happening in Europe…"As of yesterday, a food additive made out of powdered crickets began appearing in foods from pizza, to pasta to cereals across the European Union. Yes, really.

Defatted house crickets are on the menu for Europeans across the continent, without the vast majority of them knowing it is now in their food. So you might want to start reading labels a lot more carefully from now on."

Of course it isn’t just the cost of food that has become extremely oppressive. Just about everything has gotten more expensive, and this has broken the remaining strength of the U.S. consumer. If you doubt this, just consider some of the latest economic numbers that we have seen.

U.S. retail sales fell once again last month…"US retail sales continued their fall in December, dropping by 1.1% as inflation remained high, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. That’s the largest monthly decline since December 2021, and practically every category (except for building materials, groceries and sporting goods) saw sales drop from the prior month."

Sales of existing homes have now fallen for 11 months in a row…"U.S. existing home sales slowed for the 11th consecutive month in December as higher mortgage rates, surging inflation and steep home prices sapped consumer demand from the housing market."

More Americans than ever before are being forced to pay at least 30 percent of their incomes on rent…"The average US household is now considered ‘rent-burdened’ as a record-high number of people are spending more than 30 percent of their income on rent. According to Moody’s Analytics’ latest affordability report, the national average rent-to-income (RTI) ratio reached 30 percent for the first time since the company began tracking the data more than 20 years ago."

U.S. consumers are being stretched financially like never before, and many are turning to debt to help them maintain their current lifestyles. As a result, the savings rate has plunged to a historic low, credit card debt has surged to a record high, and the average rate of interest on credit card balances has also risen to a record high. As Zero Hedge has aptly noted, this is “nothing short of catastrophic”…

"The combination of record high credit card debt and record high credit card interest is nothing short of catastrophic for both the US economy, and the strapped consumer who has no choice but to keep buying on credit while hoping next month’s bill will somehow not come. Unfortunately, it will and at some point in the very near future, this will also translate into massive loan losses for US consumer banks; that’s when Powell will finally panic."

For a long time, we have been warned that the very foolish economic policies that our leaders were implementing would have deeply tragic consequences. And now it is starting to happen right in front of our eyes. Sadly, the truth is that this is just the beginning. The entire system is cracking and crumbling all around us, and there is much more pain ahead."

"How It Really Is"

 

Douglas Macgregor, "Ukraine: A Huge Russian Offensive"

Douglas Macgregor, 1/25/23:
"Ukraine: A Huge Russian Offensive"
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Straight Calls with Douglas Macgregor, 1/26/23:
"Ukraine is Currently Staring Annihilation in the Face"
"Your home for analysis of breaking news and in-depth discussion of current geopolitical events in the United states and the world. Geopolitics. No ego descriptions. No small talk. Straight to the point. Calls with the relevant analysis only."
Comments here:

"War..."

"War does not determine who's right... only who's left."
- Bertrand Russell

"The tragedy of modern war is that the young men die fighting
 each other - instead of their real enemies back home in the capitals."
- Edward Abbey

The Poet: William Butler Yeats, "The Second Coming"

"The Second Coming"

"Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the center cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?"
- William Butler Yeats, January 1919

"Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world," indeed...

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

"My Friends... It's About to Get Ugly"

Canadian Prepper, 1/25/23:
"My Friends... It's About to Get Ugly"
Comments here:
"There are a multitude of fuses affixed to dozens of powder-kegs and little kids with matches are on the loose. I don’t know which of the fuses will be lit and which powder-keg will blow, but someone is bound to do something stupid, and then all hell will break loose. It could happen at any time. One military miscue. One assassination. One violent act that stirs the world. And the dominoes will topple, setting off fireworks not seen on this planet since 1939 – 1945. I can see it all very clearly."
- Jim Quinn

Musical Interlude: Grateful Dead, “Touch of Grey”

Grateful Dead, “Touch of Grey”

“If I were dropped out of a plane into the ocean and told
 the nearest land was a thousand miles away,
 I'd still swim. And I’d despise the one who gave up.”
- Abraham Maslow

Despite it all, and it looks grim as hell, God help us...
"We will get by, we will get by, we will get by,
we will survive..." Never, ever give up!

"Society Is Collapsing; Federal Reserve Saving The Markets And Buying It All; Dealing With Evil"

Jeremiah Babe, 1/25/23:
"Society Is Collapsing; Federal Reserve Saving The 
Markets And Buying It All; Dealing With Evil"
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: 2002, “Challenge From Heaven”

Full screen recommended.
2002, “Challenge From Heaven”

"A Look to the Heavens"

“This pretty, open cluster of stars, M34, is about the size of the Full Moon on the sky. Easy to appreciate in small telescopes, it lies some 1,800 light-years away in the constellation Perseus. At that distance, M34 physically spans about 15 light-years. Formed at the same time from the same cloud of dust and gas, all the stars of M34 are about 200 million years young. 

 
But like any open star cluster orbiting in the plane of our galaxy, M34 will eventually disperse as it experiences gravitational tides and encounters with the Milky Way's interstellar clouds and other stars. Over four billion years ago, our own Sun was likely formed in a similar open star cluster.”

"Not Much Mental Distance..."

“A man who has blown all his options can't afford the luxury of changing his ways. He has to capitalize on whatever he has left, and he can't afford to admit - no matter how often he's reminded of it - that every day of his life takes him farther and farther down a blind alley. Very few toads in this world are Prince Charmings in disguise. Most are simply toads, and they are going to stay that way. Toads don't make laws or change any basic structures, but one or two rooty insights can work powerful changes in the way they get through life. A toad who believes he got a raw deal before he even knew who was dealing will usually be sympathetic to the mean, vindictive ignorance that colors the Hell's Angels' view of humanity. There is not much mental distance between a feeling of having been screwed and the ethic of total retaliation, or at least the random revenge that comes with outraging the public decency.”
- Hunter S. Thompson

"At The Approach Of Danger...:

“At the approach of danger there are always two voices that speak with equal force in the heart of man: one very reasonably tells the man to consider the nature of the danger and the means of avoiding it; the other, even more reasonable, says that it is too painful and harassing to think of the danger, since it is not a man’s power to provide for everything and escape from the general march of events; and that it is therefore better to turn aside from the painful subject till it has come, and to think of what is pleasant. In solitude a man generally yields to the first voice; in society to the second.”
- Leo Tolstoy, “War and Peace”

“All our mortal lives are set in danger and perplexity: one day to prosper,
and the next – who knows? When all is well, then look for rocks ahead.”
- Sophoclese, “Philoctetes”
Free Downloads:
A little light reading from Tolstoy…   
Freely download “War and Peace”, by Leo Tolstoy, here:

Freely download “Seven Tragedies of Sophocles- Philoctetes” here:

"20 Shocking Facts About The Society’s New Crisis"

Full screen recommended.
"20 Shocking Facts About The Society’s New Crisis"
by Epic Economist

"Americans are living in the most testing of times. Anxiety is growing as crises have spiraled out of control. From financial chaos to a disastrous economy and from a raging social decline to a growing trust deficit in our institutions, America is fighting on multiple fronts. The story of America's dazzling success threatens to end in front of our eyes and it seems like those charged with helping us recover are failing to find the answers.

In Today's video, we will present to you the 20 shocking facts about our society's crisis landscape.

According to a recent Gallup survey, Only 27% of Americans have confidence in 14 major American institutions. This is the lowest number on record since 1979, but even more concerning is the fact that it's falling further. The greatest decline in trust is being observed in three of the most important institutions - the Presidency, the Supreme Court and Congress. Only 7% of Americans have faith in lawmakers, representing another record low.

Americans no longer trust politicians to do the right thing. This lack of trust stems from a belief that the governing institutions have failed to protect their basic rights. While a majority has lost faith in institutions, there is an increasing minority that even labels the institutions as pure evil.

Falling trust in government institutions has led to increasing doubts over the political process and the system of government itself. For the longest time, U.S. democracy, despite its flaws, was perceived to be the benchmark for democracy worldwide. However, another recent survey shows that just 17 percent of Americans now think of the country's democracy as a good example for others to follow. The falling trust in institutions is also spilling over into American Society. There's a general lack of trust in each other with society so much more polarized.

Most of this distrust comes from middle and low-income groups who feel alienated in the current economic and political landscape. On the political side, the divide becomes even bigger as the two sets of voters no longer believe that the other side is working for the common good. But while there's a lot that these two sides disagree on, there's one thing that they absolutely agree on.

According to an NPR study, the number of Americans worried about the country's eventual deterioration stands at 79%. Protests, demonstrations, and lootings have become much more commonplace in recent years. The situation is so bad as direct consequence of crisis after crisis, Americans today experience more instability than in any period on record. According to a Gallup poll started in 2001, America's self-assessment of mental health is at the lowest in more than two decades. Less than a third of U.S. adults describe their mental health or emotional well-being as “excellent”. Meanwhile, over 80 percent of Americans under 30 report feeling anxious, depressed, lonely, or hopeless at least once every week.

A collective sum of what's happening around us is that Americans are not happy. According to another Gallup survey, only 38 percent of Americans say they are satisfied. This number has progressively gotten worse since 2020 when almost half the population considered itself happy.

There's a visible decline in all spheres of social life. Americans have lesser close friendships, fewer intimate relationships, a general lack of trust, and diminishing community involvement.

A growing number of Americans feel lost and believe that the culture at large is undermining traditions of sociality. In short, the state of society is mired in a crisis. One that feels even greater than the economic apocalypse that many are predicting in the immediate future."

Celente, and The Judge, "The Sun Never Sets On The American Empire"

Celente and The Judge, Trends Journal, 1/25/23:
"The Sun Never Sets On The American Empire"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present facts and truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for what’s next in these increasingly turbulent times."
https://trendsresearch.com/
Comments here:

"Decline of Empire: Parallels Between the U.S. and Rome, Part IV"

"Decline of Empire: 
Parallels Between the U.S. and Rome, Part IV"
by Doug Casey

"Now to gratify the Druids among you. Soil exhaustion, deforestation, and pollution - which abetted plagues - were problems for Rome. As was lead poisoning, in that the metal was widely used for eating and drinking utensils and for cookware. None of these things could bring down the house, but neither did they improve the situation. They might be equated today with fast food, antibiotics in the food chain, and industrial pollutants. Is the U.S. agricultural base unstable because it relies on gigantic monocultures of bioengineered grains that in turn rely on heavy inputs of chemicals, pesticides, and mined fertilizers? It’s true that production per acre has gone up steeply because of these things, but that’s despite the general decrease in depth of topsoil, destruction of native worms and bacteria, and growing pesticide resistance of weeds.

Perhaps even more important, the aquifers needed for irrigation are being depleted. But these things have all been necessary to maintain the U.S. balance of trade, keep food prices down, and feed the expanding world population. It may turn out, however, to have been a bad trade-off.

I’m a technophile, but there are some reasons to believe we may have serious problems ahead. Global warming, incidentally, isn’t one of them. One of the reasons for the rise of Rome - and the contemporaneous Han in China - may be that the climate cyclically warmed considerably up to the 3rd century, then got much cooler. Which also correlates with the invasions by northern barbarians.

Economy: Economic issues were a major factor in the collapse of Rome, one that Gibbon hardly considered. It’s certainly a factor greatly underrated by historians generally, who usually have no understanding of economics at all. Inflation, taxation, and regulation made production increasingly difficult as the empire grew, just as in the U.S. Romans wanted to leave the country, much as many Americans do today.

I earlier gave you a quote from Priscus. Next is Salvian, circa 440: "But what else can these wretched people wish for, they who suffer the incessant and continuous destruction of public tax levies. To them there is always imminent a heavy and relentless proscription. They desert their homes, lest they be tortured in their very homes. They seek exile, lest they suffer torture. The enemy is more lenient to them than the tax collectors. This is proved by this very fact, that they flee to the enemy in order to avoid the full force of the heavy tax levy.

Therefore, in the districts taken over by the barbarians, there is one desire among all the Romans, that they should never again find it necessary to pass under Roman jurisdiction. In those regions, it is the one and general prayer of the Roman people that they be allowed to carry on the life they lead with the barbarians."

One of the most disturbing things about this statement is that it shows the tax collectors were most rapacious at a time when the Empire had almost ceased to exist. My belief is that economic factors were paramount in the decline of Rome, just as they are with the U.S. The state made production harder and more expensive, it limited economic mobility, and the state-engineered inflation made saving pointless.

This brings us to another obvious parallel: the currency. The similarities between the inflation in Rome versus the U.S. are striking and well known. In the U.S., the currency was basically quite stable from the country’s founding until 1913, with the creation of the Federal Reserve. Since then, the currency has lost over 95% of its value, and the trend is accelerating. In the case of Rome, the denarius was stable until the Principate. Thereafter it lost value at an accelerating rate until reaching essentially zero by the middle of the 3rd century, coincidental with the Empire’s near collapse.

What’s actually more interesting is to compare the images on the coinage of Rome and the U.S. Until the victory of Julius Caesar in 46 BCE (a turning point in Rome’s history), the likeness of a politician never appeared on the coinage. All earlier coins were graced with a representation of an honored concept, a god, an athletic image, or the like. After Caesar, a coin’s obverse always showed the head of the emperor.

It’s been the same in the U.S. The first coin with the image of a president was the Lincoln penny in 1909, which replaced the Indian Head penny; the Jefferson nickel replaced the Buffalo nickel in 1938; the Roosevelt dime replaced the Mercury dime in 1946; the Washington quarter replaced the Liberty quarter in 1932; and the Franklin half-dollar replaced the Liberty half in 1948, which was in turn replaced by the Kennedy half in 1964. The deification of political figures is a disturbing trend the Romans would have recognized.

When Constantine installed Christianity as the state religion, conditions worsened for the economy, and not just because a class of priests now had to be supported from taxes. With its attitude of waiting for heaven and belief that this world is just a test, it encouraged Romans to hold material things in low regard and essentially despise money. Today’s Christianity no longer does that, of course. But it’s being replaced by new secular religions that do."

Gregory Mannarino, "World War III Has Begun, And Hundreds Of Millions Of People Will Die"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 1/25/23:
"World War III Has Begun, 
And Hundreds Of Millions Of People Will Die"
Comments here:
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As we beg for a nuclear World War III with Russia...

The Daily "Near You?"

Sylvania, Ohio, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

Bill Bonner, "Lost in Space"

"Lost in Space"
John Kerry's extraterrestrial delusions of grandeur, the middle-class
 gets whacked and more readings from the Church of "The Science"
by Bill Bonner

Normandy, France - "Earth to John Kerry: yes, you are a lunatic. Mr. Kerry is in Davos, Switzerland with the rich and the famous. We will return to him in a minute. First, an update.

The middle class is getting crushed. It has only two major assets – time and houses. It earns its living by selling its time. It keeps its wealth at home, under its own roofs. For the last 22 months, real wages have fallen. Over the last year, for example, the average working stiff got a 5% wage increase. But adjusted for inflation of 6.5%, the gain turned into a loss.

Meanwhile, his store of wealth – his house – is in the early stages of a sell-off. It goes like this: first, houses become too expensive, so the typical middle-class family can no longer afford the typical middle-class house. Then, naturally enough, sales fall. Builders stop building. And finally, prices drop. We are just in the beginning of the final stage. Here are the figures: At the peak of the housing bubble in 2006, the median family spent 42% of its income on housing. Now the figure is 46%. And two years ago, you could get a 30-year mortgage at 2.77%. Today, the rate is more than twice as high.

Recession Knocking: In response, new-house permits are at a 31-month low, down 30% from a year ago. Existing house sales have fallen for 11 months in a row; year over year; it’s the 2nd largest decline on record. And now, prices are headed down. They’re off 11% so far. If the pattern of the last bubble repeats itself, the total loss will be around 30%. But it could be more.

Income down. Net worth down. What’s a family to do? Stop spending. Real retail sales (after inflation) have gone down for 3 years in a row. Savings rates have fallen to a near-record low. And in the last quarter, consumer debt increased at the fastest rate since 2007. Now, there’s $16 trillion of it – a new record. Recession cannot be far away. So, let us turn back to America’s ‘Climate Envoy.”

Do you know what a ‘Climate Envoy’ is? We don’t either. But John Kerry is one. After working for the good of mankind for the last 40 years, he got the plummy gig from Joe Biden. But that is the story of Kerry’s life. Born into the very rich Forbes family (through his mother)…and educated in Switzerland, he dated Jacqueline Kennedy’s younger sister and sailed with JFK on his yacht. Later he married into the Heinz family and ordered a $10 million yacht of his own.

Now 79, what’s a man like that supposed to do with himself? Kerry imagines that he and his band of brothers and sisters have actually been selected to save the world. Yes, it sounds lunatic. And it is. But it is also the state of play…circa 2023. Kerry explains it: “When you start to think about it, it’s pretty extraordinary that we - select group of human beings because of whatever touched us at some point in our lives - are able to sit in a room and come together and actually talk about saving the planet…I mean, it’s so almost extraterrestrial to think about saving the planet.”

Touched by The Gods: Extraterrestrial? Kerry thinks he and other Davos denizens were “touched”… And yes, we think they were ‘touched’ too… but not so much by the hand of a benevolent, new testament God, but of a mischief-making god from the Greek era, one who’ll turn him into a pig or a fool. Save the planet? Really? Certainly, no serious human being, blessed with even an iota of humility or common sense, would think such a thing.

The planet was here long before the human species appeared. It will be here long after John Kerry and his whole tribe have been turned to dust and scattered to the winds. Saving the planet? Fugittaboutit. What they are really pretending to do is to keep the world’s output of ‘greenhouse gases’ from increasing. Would that be a good thing? Nobody really knows.

Both CO2 concentrations and temperatures have been much higher in the past. Somehow, the planet survived. Nor is there any absolute correlation between the two. Sometimes, when CO2 was increasing, temperatures were decreasing, and vice versa. So, it’s not clear that higher temperatures are a bad thing (they may increase crop output, for example). Nor is it clear that adding CO2 will necessarily make things hotter. And in any event, there is no evidence at all that we humans can actually set the world’s thermostat where we want it… or that, even if we could, it would be worth the costs…or that we’d be pleased with the results.

And here we come up against ‘The Science’ again. As our neighbor explained yesterday, there is no such thing as “The Science.” Science never has the final Truth…it is simply a way of discovering ‘truths’ that are later replaced by other truths. ‘The Science’ presumes a body of facts and formulae that are fixed – universal and eternal. It doesn’t exist.

“The Science” Slurs: In the 17th century, it was practically indisputable in England that the Irish were racially and culturally inferior to Englishmen. Then, in the 19th century, The Science told us that Africans were inferior to Europeans. Later, in the 20th century, German racial scientists believed Eastern Europeans and Jews were inferior. They were ‘untermenchen’ who could be treated differently from Germans. A propaganda pamphlet explained it:

Just as the night rises against the day, the light and dark are in eternal conflict. So too, is the subhuman the greatest enemy of the dominant species on earth, mankind. The subhuman is a biological creature, crafted by nature, which has hands, legs, eyes and mouth, even the semblance of a brain. Nevertheless, this terrible creature is only a partial human being.

Now, ‘The Science’ tells us that we are all the same, which is also untrue. But at least it is not murderous. ‘The Science’ is anti-science. Once people get it in their heads that ‘The Science is settled’ – meaning there can be no more discussion or discovery – ‘The Science’ becomes faith… religion… a body of thought not subject to criticism or doubt.

And there… in the nave of the High Church of Davos…is John Kerry, America’s envoy, its Cardinal for Climate Affairs, reciting the creed:

"Yes, oh Great Science, we have erred and strayed like lost sheep...
We have done the things we ought not to have done – such as drive gasoline-powered automobiles…
And left undone those things we ought to have done – such as put up more windmills and solar panels…
And there is no health in us…"

And then, from the holy city of Davos, the word goes forth: you…you deplorables…stop driving your pickups."

"Decide..."

“We're all going to die. We don't get much say over how or when, but we do get to decide how we're gonna live. So, do it. Decide. Is this the life you want to live? Is this the person you want to love? Is this the best you can be? Can you be stronger? Kinder? More compassionate? Decide. Breathe in. Breathe out and decide.”
- “Richard”, “Grey’s Anatomy”

"Passion doesn't count the cost. Pascal said that the heart has its reasons that reason takes no account of. If he meant what I think, he meant that when passion seizes the heart it invents reasons that seem not only plausible but conclusive to prove that the world is well lost for love. It convinces you that honor is well sacrificed and that shame is a cheap price to pay. Passion is destructive. It destroyed Antony and Cleopatra, Tristan and Isolde, Parnell and Kitty O'Shea. And if it doesn't destroy it dies. It may be then that one is faced with the desolation of knowing that one has wasted the years of one's life, that one's brought disgrace upon oneself, endured the frightful pang of jealousy, swallowed every bitter mortification, that one's expended all one's tenderness, poured out all the riches of one's soul on a poor drab, a fool, a peg on which one hung one's dreams, who wasn't worth a stick of chewing gum."
- W. Somerset Maugham
"Regret for the things we did can be tempered by time;
it is regret for the things we did not do that is inconsolable."
- Sydney J. Harris