Tuesday, October 11, 2022

"Even The Banksters Are Being Forced To Admit That The U.S. Economy Is Really Starting To Come Apart At The Seams"

"Even The Banksters Are Being Forced To Admit That
 The U.S. Economy Is Really Starting To Come Apart At The Seams"
by Michael Snyder

"It’s wake up time. For months, there has been a tremendous amount of denial out there. So many of the “experts” assumed that the Federal Reserve and other central banks had everything under control and that things would “return to normal” before too long. But that hasn’t happened. Instead, the wheels seem to be coming off the bus and nobody seems to know what to do. The Fed appears to be determined to keep raising interest rates in a desperate attempt to fight inflation, and this has forced other central banks all over the globe to raise rates as well in order to keep their currencies from absolutely tanking. But all of these interest rate hikes are taking us into a major global economic downturn, and central bankers in Europe are literally screaming at the Fed to end the madness. But the Fed is not going to end the madness, and so things are going to get really bad.

In fact, Bank of America is now projecting that the U.S. economy will lose 175,000 jobs a month during the first quarter of 2023…"As pressure from the Fed’s war on inflation builds, nonfarm payrolls will begin shrinking early next year, translating to a loss of about 175,000 jobs a month during the first quarter, the bank said. Charts published by Bank of America suggest job losses will continue through much of 2023. “The premise is a harder landing rather than a softer one,” Michael Gapen, head of US economics at Bank of America, told CNN in a phone interview Monday."

In my opinion, if our job losses are that small during the first three months of next year I think that will be a huge win. Another bankster, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, is also deeply concerned about the future of the U.S. economy… “But you can’t talk about the economy without talking about stuff in the future – and this is serious stuff,” Dimon said, citing inflation, quantitative easing, and Russia’s war with Ukraine. “These are very, very serious things which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world – I mean, Europe is already in recession, and they’re likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now,” he said."

Actually, the U.S. economy is in a recession right now. But I agree that things will soon get a whole lot worse. At this point, even the most optimistic woman on Wall Street is warning of disaster. Ark Investment Management’s Cathie Wood says that what the Fed is doing has the potential to create a “deflationary bust” in this country…"Could it be that the unprecedented 13-fold increase in interest rates during the last six months – likely 16-fold come November 2 –has shocked not just the US but the world and raised the risks of a deflationary bust?"

The Fed giveth and the Fed taketh away. Cathie should understand that very well by now. She looked like a genius on the way up, but the ride down is going to be very painful for her and for everyone else that was swimming in piles of cash during the boom years.

Under normal conditions, I am sure that the Fed would love to ride to Wall Street’s rescue. But that isn’t going to happen because Fed officials are scared to death of the inflation monster that they played a major role in creating. All over America, consumers and businesses are being absolutely devastated by rapidly rising prices.

Inflation causing higher prices at the local bakery, explaining all of the price changes for his ingredients. 
- Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) October 9, 2022

Until inflation is under control, the Fed is going to continue to raise rates. And that might take quite a while. So for now, stocks and bonds are just going to keep going lower and lower. On Monday, the Nasdaq actually hit the lowest level in two years…"Stocks closed lower on Monday with the Nasdaq Composite index falling to the lowest level in two years as tech shares continue to be the hardest hit in this bear market because of spiking interest rates.

The Nasdaq Composite closed 1.04% lower at 10,542.10, hitting its lowest close since July 2020, weighed down by a slump in semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia and AMD. The S&P 500 also fell 0.75% to 3,612.39, dragged down by semi stocks and dips in major tech names like Microsoft, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 93.91 points, or 0.32%, to close at 29,202.88."

The amount of financial wealth that has already been wiped out is truly frightening, but much worse could be on the horizon. If stocks and bonds continue to plunge, eventually we will see forced selling by pensions and other large investors, and at that point we truly will be in the midst of a very bitter nightmare

"Indeed, pensions don’t even need to have a near-death experience like in the UK: if the value of underlying assets drops enough, the forced selling will begin sooner or later. And once the capitulation really kicks in – as even formerly bullish Goldman strategists warn – followed closely by mass layoffs, only then will we find just how determined Powell is to pull a Volcker 2.0 and blow up the US economy and markets before he is fired by the president as his parting gift for unleashing the worst recession since the global financial crisis."

I couldn’t have said it any better myself. But at least we are still in better shape than Europe. A U.S. Army Special Forces veteran named Michael Yon recently told SiriusXM’s Breitbart News Daily what he believes conditions in Europe will soon be like…"Yon said some people “talk about energy as if everything’s interchangeable, as if solar panels and windmills and nuclear plants can replace natural gas, which [they] simply cannot.” He noted that of the 26 major plants in Europe that produce nitrogen-based fertilizers, all are either closed down or on the verge of closing.

"This will lead to famine. It’s just mathematics at this point,” he said. The loss of the Nord Stream pipeline already has driven people in Germany and other European nations to cut down trees to heat their homes. “People are going to literally freeze to death in Germany,” Yon said. “They’re going to freeze, and then they’re going to starve.”

Personally, I believe that the winter that begins in 2023 will be much worse than this upcoming winter for Europe. At least the Europeans had the luxury of storing up Russian natural gas ahead of time for this winter. Next winter, they will not have that opportunity. And that is when things will get really insane.

But what everyone should be able to agree on is the fact that we are heading into a truly historic crisis. We will soon see things happen that once would have been unimaginable for most people. I would very much much encourage you to do what you can to get prepared in advance, because the road ahead of us is going to be incredibly challenging."

"Black Friday is Dead"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 10/11/22:
"Black Friday is Dead"
"Black Friday is dead. Retail as we know it will never be the same. It never fails that this time of the year people want to shop for the holidays and look for great deals. The only problem is the stores are not going to participate. They’re so desperate for sales that they’re already marking down merchandise. Get ready for the economic crash of retail."
Comments here:
Aww, look at all the fun we're gonna miss...
And if they do this over a TV, what happens when there's no food?

"Jim Rickards Warns About The Coming Dollar Collapse And How To Prepare For It!"

Full screen recommended.
The Atlantis Report, 10/11/22:
"Jim Rickards Warns About The Coming 
Dollar Collapse And How To Prepare For It!"
Comments here:

"How It Really Is"

 

Oh, as they say, "You ain't seen nuthin' yet." But you will...

Gregory Mannarino, "JP Morgan Warns Of 'Dollar Crisis.' Debt Market 'Fragility' Worsening"

Gregory Mannarino, 10/11/22:
"JP Morgan Warns Of 'Dollar Crisis.' 
Debt Market 'Fragility' Worsening"
Comments here:

"'Back To The Old Days': Europeans Panic Buy Firewood And Stoves"

"'Back To The Old Days': 
Europeans Panic Buy Firewood And Stoves"
by Tyler Durden

"As natural gas and electricity prices soar, many European households turn to firewood, a move to offset higher energy costs as the heating season begins. Rising demand for firewood is sending much of Europe back to the 'medieval' days of using stoves and fireplaces to heat homes.

The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline system underneath the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany sparked even more energy uncertainty among Germans as many brace for what could be the coldest and possibly even the darkest winter in a generation due to rising risks of power blackouts.

On Friday, European Union leaders failed to agree on a price cap for NatGas as the energy crisis might worsen this winter as freezing weather could quickly draw down supplies from storage facilities and catapult prices even higher. About 70% of Europeans use NatGas to heat their homes, and according to Bloomberg, some 40 million people are now burning wood to heat their homes. New demand for a heat source that's been around for ages has doubled the price of wood pellets per ton to 600 euros in France.

Bloomberg pointed out Europeans are "panic buying the world's most basic fuel." Demand is so high that Hungary banned exports of wood pellets, and Romania capped firewood prices through spring. "It's back to the old days when people wouldn't have the whole house heated," said Nic Snell, managing director at British wholesale firewood retailer Certainly Wood. He added firewood is in high demand.

The boom for firewood has also meant stove demand is high. Gabriel Kakelugnar AB, a manufacturer of high-end tiled stoves, said orders had surged more than fourfold, and customers have to wait until March for delivery.

Firewood has become a scarce commodity this heating season, forcing some households to burn anything they can find: "We are worried that people will just burn what they can get their hands on," Roger Sedin, head of the air quality unit at the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, said." In fact, this is true, Polish households have started to burn trash and coal as firewood supplies dwindle.

The UK has finally come around to informing its citizens about power blackout risks. The country's grid operator warned about the "significant risk" of NatGas shortage that could trigger three-hour power cuts this winter.

Well before the heating season, we detailed in length about soaring demand for firewood. We noted in August that "Google Searches For "Firewood" In Germany Have Exploded" and even in July cited Deutsche Bank senior economist Eric Heymann who indicated a "substitution for gas" would be firewood.

Europeans have to ask if soaring electricity bills and a cost-of-living crisis are worth supporting NATO's proxy war in Ukraine via sanctions against Russia. People in Prague are already tired of Western sanctions that have devastated their economy and financial well-being."
Related:
"CIA Fingerprints on Nord Stream &
 Crimea Bridge Attacks"
"Bob Moriarty discusses how current events in Ukraine are following the law of unintended consequences. There is one still operational string of Nord Stream remaining and it must have been the U.S. with the full knowledge of European allies who carried out the attack to separate Germany and Russia once and for all. The botched pipeline and bridge attacks have CIA fingerprints all over them. Sanctions will DESTROY Europe, which will go into hyperinflation and suffer food shortages."

"Massive Price Increases In The Grocery Stores! Making Pot Roast For Dinner!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 10/11/22:
"Massive Price Increases In The Grocery Stores!
 Making Pot Roast For Dinner!"
"In today's vlog we are at Kroger, and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! We also buy all the products we need to make a huge pot roast from Kroger which ended up being very expensive! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:

"The Life Of Man..."

"The life of Man is a long march through the night, surrounded by invisible foes, tortured by weariness and pain, towards a goal that few can hope to reach, and where none may tarry long. One by one, as they march, our comrades vanish from our sight, seized by the silent orders of omnipotent Death. Very brief is the time in which we can help them, in which their happiness or misery is decided. Be it ours to shed sunshine on their path, to lighten their sorrows by the balm of sympathy, to give them the pure joy of a never-tiring affection, to strengthen failing courage, to instill faith in times of despair."
- Bertrand Russell

Monday, October 10, 2022

Canadian Prepper, "Madness! Europe Preps 62,000 Bunkers, 'Only The Start'"

Canadian Prepper, 10/10/22:
"Madness! Europe Preps 62,000 
Bunkers, 'Only The Start'"
"European country builds 62000 bunkers, a new country enters conflict, hellfire rains down from skies and Russian leadership claims it's only the beginning."
Comments here:

"20 Signs That Target Is Being Destroyed Much Faster Than Walmart"

Full screen recommended.
"20 Signs That Target Is Being Destroyed 
Much Faster Than Walmart"
by Epic Economist

"If things are going from bad to worse for the world's biggest retailer Walmart, conditions are going from ugly to catastrophic for smaller retail rival Target. Its recent 90% profit collapse has shocked investors and reminded industry giants that even the nation's most iconic department stores are still at risk of going bust at any moment. While Walmart generates about half of its sales from food, the figure for Target is about 20%, which means that as consumers tighten their belts in face of soaring energy and housing costs, ditching discretionary purchases, such as clothing, home furnishings, and electronics because they have to spend more on food, fuel and other things they need, 

Target is significantly more vulnerable to suffering massive earnings losses. On top of that, its outdated business model and supply chain problems suggest that the company is still struggling to adapt to changing consumer trends and falling behind in the already-stressed retail environment. If it fails to keep up with its larger competitors, the retailer may get absolutely crushed during the ongoing economic downturn. And we'll probably see its collapse happening way before Walmart's empire goes down.

It has become evident to everyone that the big-box retailer’s supply chain was a hot mess. Target over-ordered big, bulky home goods such as TVs, kitchen appliances, and patio furniture, which are typically more costly to ship because take up a lot of space inside shipping containers - and their size also makes them extra costly to store in warehouses. The company had to pay a premium to import those bulky products, but it soon noticed that its customers didn’t want to buy them. And its expenses continued to pile up. Given that there wasn’t enough room in its existing warehouses to store all of its unwanted goods, the retailer had to rent new warehouse space - at ultra-high prices in the tightest warehouse market ever - to store its excess inventory. 

Adding to the pain, Target was forced to slash the price of all of these low-selling products to entice shoppers to buy them and free up storage space, losing a whole lot more money in the process. That was the right strategy, but it exacted a heavy toll on earnings. To make things worse, the company reported that its price cuts did little good: It actually ended the quarter with 1.5% more inventory than it had three months earlier and 36% more than it had a year ago.

Current economic conditions are posing unprecedented challenges for the country's retailers. All across the board, pessimism seems to be the new predominant feeling. A consumer recession is no longer a threat, but a reality many of them are already facing. Not even the largest, the most popular, or the ones that had great performances in the past decade are immune to the imbalances that are occurring right now. With just a few months of slower sales, they can reverse the gains they recorded throughout years and years of hard work. 

Unfortunately, it's clear that the carnage has only just begun. And many more iconic brands are at risk of going under overnight. We're entering exceedingly difficult times, and the extinction of many of our businesses will continue to accelerate as the next economic recession rolls on. That's what we're going to expose in today's list. Here are 20 Facts That Prove Target Is Collapsing Much Harder Than Walmart."

"You Will Lose Your Job And Go Hungry; You Are On Borrowed Time; Implosion Of The US Consumer"



Full screen recommended.
Jeremiah Babe, 10/10/22:
"You Will Lose Your Job And Go Hungry; 
You Are On Borrowed Time; Implosion Of The US Consumer"
Comments here:

"The Sky is Falling"

"The Sky is Falling"
by Jeff Thomas

"Governments are in the flimflam business. Pared down to the bare essentials, governments can be very useful in passing and enforcing a small number of very basic laws. These laws should be limited to policing those who would seek to aggress against others, or their property. Governments may also have a value in providing protection from invasion – organizing an army of able-bodied people to address this collective problem, if and when it occurs.

And that’s about it. Beyond that, the private sector can, and almost always does, do a better job at virtually everything else. Therefore, a government should be small, cost very little to run and do as little as possible. But since a government already exists, why not have it do more? Why not assign to it some of those tasks that tend not to attract businessmen?

Well, the simple, but almost universally little-understood, reason is that governments do not actually produce anything. They are, in fact, a parasitical construct that consumes money but creates nothing of worth. Unlike businesses, they don’t operate on a profit basis. In fact, few politicians or civil servants have any grasp of the concept that prosperity is only created when someone invests his money in a venture, creates a profit and saves or re-invests the difference.

Although this may seem like a harsh criticism, it’s borne out by the fact that all governments consume money and are more wasteful than any business would be. Worse, politicians and civil servants typically fail entirely to understand that this is a fundamental problem. And, yet, like all people, people in governments wish to personally advance, both in position and financial worth. And here is where the perennial bugbear of governments appears.

Since governments, by rights, should never expand unless absolutely necessary, and since this is never enough for those who people any government, they must somehow con the public into believing that government expansion is "for the good of the people." Ergo, even the smallest of governments, in the smallest of jurisdictions, will learn to cajole the public. As the government grows, the con-game grows and duplicity, trickery and skullduggery become the lifeblood of the government – any government. The con-game becomes, "Vote for me and I’ll provide you with something at the expense of someone else."

It is the primary business of any government to grow its own power and wealth at the expense of its people. At some point, all governments figure out that the greatest way to expand their own power and personal wealth is through fear. If a people can be made afraid, the government can bypass reason and appeal to emotion – always an easier sell.

For millennia, governments (like organized religions and for the same reason) have peddled the fear of a demon – usually in the form of an aggressive opponent from outside the jurisdiction who can be regarded as wishing to aggress against the country. In modern times, however, the spin doctors have done this concept one better – they’ve learned to peddle, not an individual, country or army as the demon, but a concept.

As the reader will know, in recent decades, all any government has needed to do is claim that something that they oppose is related somehow to terrorism and they will be given carte blanche to crush it, however implausible the given reasoning may be.

Another highly successful demon is Climate Change. The Climate Change concept was invented out of whole fabric by the Club of Rome, which was created in 1968 by David Rockefeller. It was originally called "Global Cooling," as, at that time, the earth was passing through one of its cyclic cooling periods. However, that period soon came to an end and the earth entered a global warming period. So, the same "science" that was used for Global Cooling was then attributed without any change whatever to the new "Global Warming."

When that cycle ended and the proponents of Global Warming again had egg on their faces for pushing warming during a new periodic cooling cycle, the proponents finally got clever and renamed it "Climate Change." From that day forward, any flood, drought, hurricane, tornado or variation in the ice caps has immediately been blamed on "increased Climate Change," even though such occurrences have been with us forever and will be with us forever.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has repeatedly polled scientists as to whether they agree that climate change exists, and the IPCC states that over 97% agree. What is not asked is whether Climate Change is a direct result of man’s intervention. Asked if climate changes from time to time, the answer is, of course, "yes." In fact, 100% of scientists should agree, based upon the wording of the question. But, of course, this is not science at all, but deception. Always phrase the question in such a way that you will receive the desired answer.

So, the outcome is that the great majority of people are sold on the idea that Climate Change is due to man’s creation of CO2 and that mankind has to be controlled, or he will destroy the planet with CO2 emissions. Since "scientists" are represented as agreeing on this, people tend not to question the logic. The fact that all plants breathe CO2 and would die without it and that, if all plant life were to expire, all animal life would then expire, does not occur to the listener. His government has spoken and he needs to be afraid.

Since the mid-1970s, politicians have periodically claimed that life on earth will come to an end in a decade or so if emissions are not eliminated globally. Whenever one of these deadlines passes, the presenters simply move up the date another decade or so, maintaining the fear, but never actually reaching the end of the world. Of course, the Great Lie should be exposed, due to the fact that governments do not actually pass laws to eliminate CO2 emissions; they merely create taxation and fines for those manufacturers who create CO2. So, apparently, it’s all right to end the world, if you pay a hefty tax, instead of cutting CO2.

"The Jews will destroy Germany"… "The Iranians will destroy the world if they can make a nuclear bomb"… "Your car will destroy the earth"… but Air Force One, which creates 336 times the CO2 of a car, will not. With government propaganda, the sky is always falling.

All the best propaganda appeals at a gut level. If people can be made to abandon reason and accept government-created fear, they can be controlled. This doesn’t mean that governments can’t ever be trusted, but it means that they shouldn’t ever be trusted. They should always be questioned, not only as their propaganda is so often false, but as they are, inherently, in the flimflam business."

Musical Interlude: Deuter, "Along the High Ridges"

Deuter, "Along the High Ridges"

Musical Interlude: Prelude, "After the Goldrush"

Prelude, "After the Goldrush" (Studio version)

Prelude, "After the Goldrush" (Live version)
Prelude comprise Irene Hume, Brian Hume, Ian Vardy.

'A Look to the Heavens"

“Why isn't this ant a big sphere? Planetary nebula Mz3 is being cast off by a star similar to our Sun that is, surely, round. Why then would the gas that is streaming away create an ant-shaped nebula that is distinctly not round?
Clues might include the high 1000-kilometer per second speed of the expelled gas, the light-year long length of the structure, and the magnetism of the star visible above at the nebula's center. One possible answer is that Mz3 is hiding a second, dimmer star that orbits close in to the bright star. A competing hypothesis holds that the central star's own spin and magnetic field are channeling the gas. Since the central star appears to be so similar to our own Sun, astronomers hope that increased understanding of the history of this giant space ant can provide useful insight into the likely future of our own Sun and Earth.”

"We Were There..."

"Someday stars will wind down or blow up. Someday death will cover us all like the water of a lake and perhaps nothing will ever come to the surface to show that we were ever there. But we WERE there, and during the time we lived, we were alive. That's the truth - what is, what was, what will be - not what could be, what should have been, what never can be."
- Orson Scott Card

"Now the voices and the sound of movement were gone, and the stream could be heard running quietly under its banks. The air was full of the scent of water and of flowers. She walked, quiet, while the house began to reverberate: a band had started up. She walked beside the river while the music thudded, feeling herself as a heavy, impervious, insensitive lump that, like a planet doomed always to be dark on one side, had vision in front only, a myopic searchlight blind except for the tiny three-dimensional path open immediately before her eyes in which the outline of a tree, a rose, emerged then submerged in dark. She thought, with the dove's voices of her solitude. Where? But where. How? Who? No, but where, where… Then silence and the birth of a repetition. Where? Here. Here? Here, where else, you fool, you poor fool, where else has it been, ever…?"
- Doris Lessing

The Poet: John O'Donohue, "For The Time Of Necessary Decision"

"For The Time Of Necessary Decision"

 "The mind of time is hard to read.
We can never predict what it will bring,
Nor even from all that is already gone
Can we say what form it finally takes;
For time gathers its moments secretly.
Often we only know it's time to change
When a force has built inside the heart
That leaves us uneasy as we are.

Perhaps the work we do has lost its soul,
Or the love where we once belonged
Calls nothing alive in us anymore.
We drift through this gray, increasing nowhere
Until we stand before a threshold we know
We have to cross to come alive once more.

May we have the courage to take the step
Into the unknown that beckons us;
Trust that a richer life awaits us there,
That we will lose nothing
But what has already died;
Feel the deeper knowing in us sure
Of all that is about to be born beyond
The pale frames where we stayed confined,
Not realizing how such vacant endurance
Was bleaching our soul's desire."

- John O'Donohue, 
"To Bless the Space Between Us"

"The Hand We're Dealt..."

“Bad things don’t happen to people because they deserve for them to happen. It just doesn’t work that way. It’s just… life. And no matter who we are, we have to take the hand we’re dealt, crappy though it may be, and try our very best to move forward anyway, to love anyway, to have hope anyway… to have faith that there’s a purpose to the journey we’re on.”
- Mia Sheridan

Bill Bonner, "Gilty Finking"

"Gilty Finking"
by Bill Bonner

Baltimore, Maryland - "Yes, dear reader, it’s a YODO world now. Investors are realizing that when they are dead, they are dead forever. No Fed voodoo to raise them from the grave. And it’s the first time for most of them. No chance to practice. No opportunity to learn.

And so, the mood was glum at the end of last week. The jobs report on Thursday showed a stronger employment market than expected. Investors figured the odds of a Fed U-turn had gone down. They sold stocks. MarketWatch: "While markets have not yet morphed into an actual state of alarm, an increasingly dark sentiment is starting to brew behind the scenes.

Nikko Asset Management’s John Vail said a “short but scary” global recession is likely to be ahead. Ben Emons of Medley Global Advisors said Wednesday’s decision by major oil producers to cut production, starting next month, has the potential to turn into a prolonged stretch of higher inflation and big market swings. And volatility expert Harley Bassman said stocks could drop as much as 20% from where they are now - a magnitude similar to the single-day decline that took place during 1987’s “Black Monday” scare.

As the Fed raises rates, they become more ‘normal’ than they’ve been for many years. But ‘normal’ terrifies investors. It makes them realize how weird things have gotten and that they may have to back up before they can go forward. That is, they may have to give up their Bubble Era profits and admit that much of what they believed was either a lie or a delusion."

Disorderly Fashion: You don’t get real money from a printing press. Credit from the central bank is not the same as money that has been earned and saved. And there are limits to what assets are worth… and how much debt you can support. And prices go down as well as up. And fake interest rates – zero! – do far more harm than good. And a group of hacks at the Fed can’t really improve a $24 trillion economy.

That would be normal. But when you’ve been living in a dreamworld, a return to normal can be brutal. So far, the decline in stocks and bonds has been orderly. There has been selling, but no panic selling. Today, we wonder when it will become disorderly.

All over the world, from the largest institutions – such as Larry Fink’s BlackRock – to the smallest minimum-wage household, normal interest rates squeeze the space between income and outgo. For many, the space disappears completely… and then outgo exceeds income. And as our old friend Sid Taylor, a defense budget analyst, used to say: “When your outflow exceeds your income your upkeep is your downfall.”

The Bank of England ‘pivoted’ when it realized what ‘normal’ would do to the gilt (UK government bond) market. These are, by the way, the safest investments in the UK. They’re not NFTs or cryptos. England is not going to default. Gilts are not going to disappear. But you can still lose a lot of money in government bonds. And that’s what Britain’s pension and insurance giants were doing when the BoE (Bank of England) saved them.

Lessons Unlearned: Imagine that you are running a giant pension company. You have billions in assets. But you have billions in liabilities too. People are going to retire; you have to make sure they have the money they were promised. You invest safely, prudently… careful not to lose money. This is money that absolutely, positively has to be there when it is needed.

Trouble is, you based your projections on “normal’ interest rates. At 4% interest, you had it made. Your assets would earn enough to cover upcoming payouts. But at zero interest rates? You had to innovate. Along comes Larry Fink. He tells you not to worry. You can use his “liability-driven investing” strategy (LDI). In the last major market hoop-de-doo, in 2008, Larry lost $100 million for First Boston in mortgage backed securities. But now, he’s learned his lesson, or so he says.

You don’t want to gamble with pension savings. But what else can you do? And Larry makes it sound… well… almost scientific. He shows you some neat charts and graphs. The idea is simple enough. If you need 4% interest, and your investments are only earning 1%... you borrow 3 times your assets in order to end up with 4 times as much yield. Larry wears a nice suit. He says he cares deeply about the environment, social justice and enlightened corporate governance. And he makes it sound so easy.

And soon, your pension fund has borrowed billions of dollars and Larry’s LDI funds have more than $1 trillion in assets. But wouldn’t you know it? Just when you thought things might work out, UK bond yields went up (bond prices went down). Gilts were the collateral behind the billions the funds had borrowed. When they went down, pension funds got margin calls and had to sell their gilts to make payments to their creditors – further impairing the value of their collateral.

Panic Early, Beat the Rush: That was the situation on the 29th of September. The bond market was becoming disorderly. Larry Fink’s LDI empire of debt was tottering. If it toppled over… it could bring down the whole system. Such is the wacky world created by the ultra-low interest rates. Nothing is safe. Stocks are down. Bonds are down. Even gold, though flat for the year, is down $300 since March. When asset prices go down, lenders and investors – and all their tricked-up speculations – get into trouble. Because the assets of the latter are the collateral of the former. So, it was that the UK approached its moment of clarity and normalcy… and wanted nothing to do with it.

Meanwhile, over on this side of the Atlantic… Larry Fink has his headquarters in New York. US pension funds have made similar bets, trying to make up for a lack of yield by taking bigger gambles. Corporations, meanwhile, borrowed more than at any time in history, in order to disguise weak earnings and bid up their share prices. And even the federal government begins to teeter under the weight of $31 trillion in debt. It soon faces interest payments of $1 trillion per year. Something’s gonna give. Then investors, standing in line patiently now, will begin to push and shove… and rush the exits."

The Daily "Near You?"

Billings, Montana, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"The Only Final Sin..."

"In a closed society where everybody's guilty, the only crime is
getting caught. In a world of thieves, the only final sin is stupidity."
- Hunter S. Thompson

"Russia Launches Large-Scale Strikes On Some 20 Ukrainian Cities In Response To 'Terrorist' Crimea Bridge Blast"

"Russia Launches Large-Scale Strikes On Some 20 
Ukrainian Cities In Response To 'Terrorist' Crimea Bridge Blast"
by Tyler Durden

"A series of major explosions rocked Kyiv and several locations across Ukraine on Monday, following Russian President Vladimir Putin blaming Ukrainian special services for the "terrorist" blast which partially disabled the Crimean bridge that links Russia to the peninsula. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the fresh missile attacks in a statement posted to Telegram, saying that the new "missiles hitting" are part of the Kremlin trying to "wipe us off the face of the Earth," and that: "Unfortunately, there are dead and wounded."
Image of widespread destruction in Kiev & 
other cities are widely circulating on social media.
At least 100 strikes were carried out, with many cruise missiles launched from Russian warships in the Black Sea. Putin in a televised announcement said he ordered attacks on military, energy, and communications targets specifically in response to the Crimea bridge attack.

"If attempts to carry out terrorist attacks continue, Russia's response will be severe and at the level of the threats facing it. Nobody should be in any doubt," Putin warned. He threatened that more might follow: "If attempts to commit terrorist acts on our territory continue, the responses from Russia will be harsh and their scale will correspond to the level of threat to Russia," he added, addressing a meeting of his Security Council. "No one should have any doubts."

Russia's defense ministry also affirmed it hit "all the assigned targets" - which in some cases appear to have been civilian infrastructure in the Ukrainian capital. Regional sources are listing that over 15 significant cities were targeted and suffered severe damage, including Kiev, Rovno, Lvov, Ternopol, Ivano-Frankovsk, Khmelnitsky, Zhitomir, Kremenchug, Kropivnitsky, Krivoy-Rog, Odessa, Zaporozhie, Dnieper, Poltava, Kharkov. Additional smaller cities and towns were hit as well.

"Over 50+ missile strikes have been reported in Ukrainian cities. Misty cruise missiles such as Kh-101 and Kalibr. Chaos ensues and woman can be heard screaming in the background." pic.twitter.com/BWUpKbS33m
- LogKa (@LogKa11) October 10, 2022

Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of the Ukrainian presidency's office said "many cities" came under Russian attack. "Ukraine is under missile attack. There is information about strikes in many cities of our country." He further warned the population to "stay in shelters."

Russians are trying to make it "bridge for bridge"?
- Ukrainska Pravda in English (@pravda_eng) October 10, 2022

"The capital is under Russian terrorists' attack!" Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said in describing strikes on the city center. "If there is no urgent need, it is better not to go to the city today. I am also asking the residents of the suburbs about this - do not go to the capital today." Importantly, there are reports the building housing the German consulate in Kyiv was rocked by a missile, according to BILD newspaper. These are the first strikes on the Ukrainian capital since June.

"People seen sheltering in underground metro stations amid ongoing air raid sirens... Metro station in Kyiv where I am with my son now. Very crowded, lots of kids. People are calm, no panic."
- Inna Sovsun (@InnaSovsun) October 10, 2022

In an initial response EU foreign policy chief Joseph Borrell said he is "Deeply shocked by Russia’s attacks on civilians in Kyiv and other cities in Ukraine. Such acts have no place in 21st century," and condemned them "in the strongest possible terms."

However, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said this is only the beginning of the response, saying according to a state media translation: "The first episode is over. There will be others... I will express my personal position. The Ukrainian state in its current configuration with the Nazi political regime will pose a constant, direct and clear threat to Russia. Therefore, in addition to protecting our people and protecting the country's borders, the goal of our future actions should be a complete dismantling of the political regime of Ukraine," Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel."

Kyiv. Also reports that Iranian drones coming from Belarus. 
- Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) October 10, 2022

Many pundits have pointed out that Russia has been "holding back" up to this point. With the war now more than seven months in, there hasn't been the kind of "shock and awe" attacks against major Ukrainian centers like some predicted initially.

2003: Operation "Shock and Awe" over Iraq's capital city, 31 countries from the "free world" took part. Understand this, Putin is holding back in Kiev #Kyiv 
- Syrian Girl 🇸🇾🎗 (@Partisangirl) October 10, 2022

Independent geopolitical analyst Tom Fowdy described, "I honestly don't know what Ukraine and their supporters were expecting when they decided to attack a bridge Russia could not have made more clear was a massive, massive red line. They're forcing Putin's hand even when he has been massively lethargic to play it."

From a friend in Kyiv this morning. 
- ed mac (@echomadman) October 10, 2022

Map of Monday's strikes:
Likely reports of casualty figures will continue rising throughout the day as damage is assessed. "At least five civilian deaths were reported and 12 people were wounded in Kyiv on Monday as at least 83 missiles were fired on the country," The Hill reports based on local sources. Ukraine’s armed forces said that air defenses succeeded in downing 43 missiles."

Jim Kunstler, "You Can Always Dream"

"You Can Always Dream"
by Jim Kunstler

"Last night I had a dream… Everyone that I knew… And everyone that you know was in my dream… I saw a vampire… I saw a ghost… Everybody scared me but you sacred me the most… In the dream I had last night…" - Randy Newman

"Last night I had a dream. In the dream I woke up to the banner headline: BIDEN ARRESTED. It was only a dream, but was most satisfying, as it made vivid and emphatic what must happen to correct the dreadful tendings of the criminally psychopathic enterprise that our government has become.

The gang behind the shabby and absurd pretend-president - a figure as comically macabre as the plastic effigies of the undead who crowd American front yards this time of year - is not content with running the country into a ditch. Lately these rogues and degenerates are making noises about blowing up the world.

The autumn days dwindle down to signal events that will overturn this wicked enterprise. The yellow-and-blue flag of Ukraine can’t compete on the lawn with tableaux vivants of werewolves, skeletons hung with rotting flesh, radioactive burn victims, hooded demons from hell escaping their graves, and tortured souls shrieking from the various zones between this world and perdition. America is expressing itself with stunning verisimilitude to the onrush of reality: maybe we’ve had enough of romancing death.

That’s the developing lesson of our fiasco in Ukraine. The past three weeks, the US and its vacillating NATO cohorts issued a set of challenging insults aimed at Russia, the designated “villain” in the concocted Ukraine melodrama produced-and-directed by the Party of Chaos as a diversion from our own acute problems at home.

First, the sabotage of Nord Streams One and Two. Maybe a US op, maybe UK, maybe Poland in the mix somewhere. Obviously not Russia, despite all the clumsy propaganda on CNN. What was the idea there, exactly? To deprive Russia of a natgas export market? Guess what? The destruction of the Nord Streams leaves plenty of natgas for the other 70-percent of the world that’s not Europe. And plenty of natgas for Russia itself to develop industries in an import-replacement program to offset the idiotic economic sanctions recklessly imposed on it by “Joe Biden” & Company.

Not such a good outcome for Germany and the EU, though. They will, first, freeze through the winter with idle furnaces and, second, starve in 2023-24 from a lack of fertilizer (made from natgas in the Haber-Bosch process). Oh, and no more industry for you, Euroland. It’s back to the jolly rigors of the Twelfth Century, planting barley and peasecods with pointed sticks while wolves roam the streets of your depopulated cities.

Next, days ago, the attempted destruction of the bridge over the Kerch Strait in the Black Sea, connecting the Crimean Peninsula to mainland Russia. Nice try. Didn’t work. Both the railroad lanes and the motor lanes are operational again. Who did it? We’ll know soon enough.

Note also: the ongoing shelling and bombing of Ukraine’s giant nuclear power generation plant at Zaporizhzhia - admitted by US officials to be a Ukraine operation in a September 13 New York Times report. Yes, that was the bright idea of America’s advisors to NATO and Ukraine: lob explosives into the biggest nuke plant in Europe. See what happens….

Note also that the main human object of all this US, NATO, and Ukraine mischief is the leader of Russia. That’d be Vladimir Putin. One must admire Mr. Putin’s prudence and fortitude in the face of such provocative effrontery. So far anyway. Now, it appears that he has had enough of these shenanigans. For seven months, the strategy behind Russia’s Special Military Operation has puzzled the West. Why so tentative? Why not just use Russia’s manifest superiority, air power especially, to go in and bust the whole joint up? Do what the US has done in places like Libya and Syria?

Forgive me for repeating what I’ve written more than once before: Russia will not benefit from having a broken, failed state on its doorstep. Such a situation would clearly just invite more international hugger-mugger. Rather, Russia will benefit hugely from having a neutral, functioning Ukraine next door, a state with ample agricultural resources that could plausibly feed its people and live in peace, perhaps even enjoy special trade privileges with its bigger neighbor to the east… a Ukraine that would be a geographical buffer between Russia and what is apt to be a very disorderly and distressed Western Europe on the other side.

The Ukrainian leader, Mr. Zelenskyy, capped off the weeks of sabotage by appealing to the US and NATO to conduct “preemptive nuclear strikes” against Russia proper. That’ll work in Ukraine’s favor, I’m sure. He promised to call German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and make the pitch for NATO jumping into the action on the ground. (And with whose army would that be?) Such cheek from this desperado! Going mad-dog is probably not a sign of confidence.

As of Monday, October 10, Russia began delivering some disciplinary actions against Mr. Zelenskyy’s insolent regime. Russia sent missiles into at least 10 Ukrainian cities, targeting electric power generation, water, central heating, and other “key services” in Kiev and elsewhere. Message: if you think we’re f*cking around, consider this an attitude adjustment opportunity.
Full screen recommended.
And the gloves come off...
Full screen recommended. 
The action is an overture to a strategic shift. Russia aims to speed up the game clock, consolidate its ownership of the Donbas provinces, destroy Ukraine’s remaining military capability, bust up enough stuff to perhaps prompt the Ukrainian people to ask whether continuing to follow Mr. Zelenskyy’s gang is a good idea, and leave no alternative to talks that will leave Ukraine neutralized. Mr. Putin is calling “Joe Biden’s” bluff. All of this could have been avoided, of course, if the maniacs of America’s deep state had simply abided by the promise made thirty years ago to not expand NATO. What part of that deal didn’t we understand? Apparently, all of it. On purpose. Because we have acted with conscious and arrogant dishonor.

Of course, our “president” could commence that nuclear war he affects to be so avid for. It would be a fitting career-capper for the Ol’ Dawg. The show-runner behind all this needless mayhem, former President Barack Obama, reminded us a while back: “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f*ck things up.” Roger that, BHO! Which gets back to that dream I had of the headline: BIDEN ARRESTED. It was good, but not enough. How about : BIDEN, OBAMA, AND 639 FEDERAL OFFICIALS IN NINE AGENCIES ARRESTED. What a strange moment in our long and steadfast history as an orderly Republic that would be. And yet, what a perfect ending to these years of perfidy and travail."

"They Have No Cash!"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 10/10/22:
"They Have No Cash!"
"This is getting worse and worse for the real estate industry. There are mortgage lenders that are canceling loan applications because they do not have money to lend out. They are out of cash. What does the world look like when they are canceling loans like this? "
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "The Global Financial System Is Coming Apart Faster... And Its About To Get Much Worse"

Gregory Mannarino, 10/10/22:
"The Global Financial System Is Coming Apart Faster...
 And Its About To Get Much Worse"
Comments here:

"Price Increases At Target! This Is Getting Crazy! What's Next?"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 10/10/22:
"Price Increases At Target!
 This Is Getting Crazy! What's Next?"
"In today's vlog we visit Target and are noticing ridiculously high prices. Prices on groceries continue to rise, as we are also witnessing more empty shelves everywhere! It's getting rough out here as stores are struggling to get in products."
Comments here:

"Economic Market Snapshot 10/10/22"

"Economic Market Snapshot 10/10/22"
Market Data Center, Live Updates:
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
Latest Market Analysis, Updated 10/10/22
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
Financial Stress Index

"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: creditequity valuationfunding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United Statesother advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Job cuts and much more.
Commentary, highly recommended:
"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
And now... The End Game...

"How It Really Is"

Good luck!

"Maybe You Go To Hell..."

"Maybe you don't go to hell for the things you do. Maybe you go 
to hell for the things you don't do. The things you don't finish."
- Chuck Palahniuk