Tuesday, September 27, 2022

"Who Did It?"

"Who Did It?"
by Brian Maher

"What - or who - did it? That is: What… or who… blasted holes in the Nord Stream pipeline today? AP News reports the particulars: "Explosions rattled the Baltic Sea before unusual leaks were discovered on two natural gas pipelines running underwater from Russia to Germany, seismologists said Tuesday… The first explosion was recorded early Monday southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm, said Bjorn Lund, director of the Swedish National Seismic Network. A second, stronger blast northeast of the island that night was equivalent to a magnitude-2.3 earthquake. Seismic stations in Norway and Finland also registered the explosions. “There’s no doubt this is not an earthquake,” Lund said."

If definitely “not an earthquake,” we wonder, what then jolted the seismometers? We had our men ransack the technical literature. They informed us that the likelihood of two accidental detonations - two near-simultaneous accidental detonations - nears zero. Eurasia Group analysts Henning Gloystein and Jason Bush are with our men. They observe that undersea pipelines are engineered to a very high state of robustness. These tubes are not ruptured easily, they affirm. Moreover, leaks as these are vanishingly rare.

Meantime, Nord Stream AG operates the Nord Stream pipeline apparatus. They insist that "the destruction that happened within one day at three lines of the Nord Stream pipeline system is unprecedented.” These and other pipeline savants therefore lean toward one solitary explanation:

Sabotage. Something did not simply go awry. Someone dynamited holes in the Nord Stream pipeline, purposely and intentionally. That is also the conclusion of Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. “We can clearly see that this is an act of sabotage,” he fumes. Meantime, Denmark’s prime minister declared: "It is now the clear assessment by authorities that these are deliberate actions. It was not an accident."

Just so. Yet two critical questions immediately present themselves: Who is responsible?… and why did they do it? Our men hunted up one potential clue…A rival pipeline to Nord Stream - the Baltic Pipe by name - begins conducting Norwegian natural gas to Poland days from now, Oct. 1. The new pipeline could make good some of the energy shortages Europe confronts this winter. A certain Anders Puck Nielsen, with the Royal Danish Defense College, labels the blasts’ timing “conspicuous.” He suggests they were carried out “to send a signal that something could happen to the Norwegian gas.”

Yet the question lingers in the air: Who did it? This Puck Nielsen fellow fingers Russia: "The arrow points in the direction of Russia. No one in the West is interested in having any kind of instability in the energy market… I think if we look at who would actually benefit from disturbances, more chaos on the gas market in Europe, I think there’s basically only one actor right now that actually benefits from more uncertainty, and that is Russia." Many others likewise suspect Russian vandalism.

Incidentally - or not incidentally…The German magazine Der Spiegel reports today that the Central Intelligence Agency warned German authorities weeks ago of possible sabotage against the Nord Stream pipeline. We cannot confirm the report… yet we have put our spies on the case. Yet why would Russia blast holes in its own pipeline?

Mr. Simone Tagliapietra is energy analyst with Belgium’s Bruegel “think tank.” He suggests Russia orchestrated the sabotage to telegraph that it is “breaking forever with Western Europe and Germany” as Poland starts up its pipeline with Norway. AP News reports some believe Moscow dynamited its own pipeline “out of spite” or to remind the West of pipelines’ vulnerabilities.

Yet we are not half so convinced. Media sources have habitually informed us that the Nord Stream pipeline was Russia’s carrot and stick. A carrot in that Russia would open the taps and deliver Europe its desperately natural gas - if Europe would merely abandon its sanctions… A stick in that Russia would choke off Europe in event Europe did not abandon sanctions. In brief, the Nord Stream pipeline represented Russia’s “leverage” over Europe.

Why then would Russia lift its hand from the lever - and shortly before winter - when its leverage is greatest? And if Russia wished to squeeze Europe good… why not simply wreck the new pipeline from Norway to Poland? Europe would do a lot of yelling but how could they prove the Russians did it? Vladimir Putin need only shrug his shoulders in bafflement and denial. He could then remind them that the Nord Stream pipeline is ready to meet their energy needs if only they capitulate - another dangle of the rewarding carrot. And what fresh sanctions could Europe impose on Russia that haven’t already been scheduled?

These are some of the questions flogging our overlabored and sore-beset brain this day. Here is another: Who - besides the Russians - may have executed the sabotage? Who do you think was responsible? Let us know: feedback@dailyreckoning.com

Then read on. Below, Jim Rickards takes apart the media spin to give you the real state of the war in Ukraine. Has Ukraine’s latest offensive turned the tide against Russia? Read on."
"Ukraine: Separating Fact From Fiction"
By Jim Rickards

"How many stories have you read recently about the turning point in the War in Ukraine? The narrative says that the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a successful counterattack across a broad front south of Kharkiv and extending across the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk. Russians were not only pushed back but they retreated in disarray. Vehicles were abandoned, Russian deserters were everywhere, and Russian morale was low. Ukraine was poised to regain much of the territory it had lost earlier in the war. Putin was under threat at home and might soon be replaced in a coup d’état.

All that was needed was more money and more advanced weapons from the U.S. and its NATO allies and the Russians could be pushed back to Russian territory. Almost every aspect of this narrative is false. Here’s the real story…Ukraine did launch a counteroffensive and it did regain some territory. None of the territories was critical in terms of natural resources, industrial capacity, or logistics nodes except for one relatively minor junction.

The Russian troops who rolled back were not regular army or even mercenaries but something like a local police force organized by the Russians to patrol the villages and towns on the perimeter of Russian control. Those forces were mostly withdrawn safely; very few engaged in an actual confrontation with Ukrainian forces and casualties were light.

The Russians quickly consolidated along interior lines and the stalemate on the Donbas front continues. Except now the Russians have mobilized 300,000 fresh troops and will quickly reinforce and expand their presence in Ukraine. The Ukrainians suffered large casualties in the aftermath of the offensive as a result of Russian artillery barrages.

The Russians will wait for colder weather when their experience and equipment will give them a decisive edge and then push back the line and prepare for new objectives such as Odessa. Meanwhile, the winter will bring Russia’s energy advantage to the fore as Western Europe has to shut down industry, turn down thermostats, and face popular unrest at the high cost of supporting the Ukrainian oligarchs and neo-fascists.

The Ukrainian offensive was little more than a show intended to spin up Western media and open the door for more money to be sent to the oligarchs (much of which gets recycled as campaign contributions to Democrats ahead of the midterm elections). That’s the real story. But you won’t find it in the mainstream media.

Meanwhile, Russia’s been busy on the economic front, and continues its plans to move away from the dollar. We need to confront the reality that the sanctions were a blunder from the start. But the “hate Russia” crowd was so blinded by their contempt for Putin that they plowed ahead regardless. Now the unforeseen consequences are emerging and they’re even worse than the critics imagined.

The globalist elites and Western politicians pursue their fantasies of windmills and solar modules while serious countries like Russia and Iran gain a lock on the only energy supplies that will really matter for the foreseeable future - oil and gas.

Instead of sanctions hurting Russia, it’s making over $21 billion per month from its energy exports. That’s far more than they made before the war, and the Russian ruble is stronger than it was before the war. In fact, the head of the Central Bank of Russia recently cut interest rates because the ruble was too strong. Of course, all the “experts” said that sanctions would cripple the ruble.

Meanwhile the U.S. is in a recession, inflation is at 40-year highs, interest rates are rising and gas and food prices have doubled in the past year. In Europe it’s worse with energy and food shortages looming in the months ahead.

By weaponizing the U.S. dollar, freezing Russia’s assets and ejecting Russia from the global payments systems, the U.S. has forced Russia to consider alternative payment currencies, alternative payment channels and possibly a new global reserve currency including new digital currencies backed by a basket of commodities including gold.

I’ve written a lot lately about efforts to derail the dollar as a leading payment currency. That continues to be an active arena for Russia and others. Any discussion of this requires a careful separation of the roles of a payment currency and a reserve currency. The term reserve currency is applied to the currency of denomination of reserves (usually bonds) held by central banks and finance ministries as the chosen store of value for a country’s net cash accumulation from trade and direct foreign investment. The reserves are not in the form of currency deposits. They are held as bonds, notes, sometimes stocks and other assets predominately denominated in dollars.

Becoming a reserve currency or dislodging an existing reserve currency is a long-term undertaking. It requires a large liquid bond market, and associated features of a bond market such as bank dealers, repo facilities, auctions, and derivatives that can be used for hedging purposes. Above all, it requires a good rule of law so investors can rely on the credit of the bond issuer and seek recourse if that credit is impaired in any way.

A payment currency is different and much easier to implement. It requires a unit of account (which could be Russian rubles, Chinese yuan or even baseball cards), two or more countries willing to accept the payment currency in trade, and reliable payment channels. This is where Russia is making significant progress. Russia has doubled its efforts to create an alternative to the SWIFT payments messaging system from which Russia was ejected last spring.

The new channel is called the System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS in the Russian acronym), which currently has 440 members, including 100 outside of Russia. Russia is also developing the Mir system, which issues bank credit cards. These are an alternative to MasterCard and VISA, which also banned Russia.

These new systems won’t reach full scale overnight, but Russia’s progress suggests they will be more widely used sooner than later. It also means that once these systems become large and liquid enough, there will be no turning back and the dollar will be permanently displaced to the extent users prefer SPFS and Mir. And this is how new reserve currencies eventually emerge - slowly at first, then suddenly."

Gerald Celente, "The Future Does Not Like You"

Full screen recommended.
Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, 9/27/22:
"The Future Does Not Like You"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

Musical Interlude: 2002, "Memory Of The Sky"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "Memory Of The Sky"

"A Fabulous Look to the Heavens"

Full screen recommended.

The Poet: Rainer Maria Rilke, "Book of Hours II, 16"

"Book of Hours II, 16"

"How surely gravity's law,
strong as an ocean current,
takes hold of even the strongest thing
and pulls it toward the heart of the world.
Each thing-
each stone, blossom, child-
is held in place.
Only we, in our arrogance,
push out beyond what we belong to
for some empty freedom.
If we surrendered
to earth's intelligence
we could rise up rooted, like trees.
Instead we entangle ourselves
in knots of our own making
and struggle, lonely and confused.
So, like children, we begin again
to learn from the things,
because they are in God's heart;
they have never left him.
This is what the things can teach us:
to fall,
patiently to trust our heaviness.
Even a bird has to do that
before he can fly."

~ Rainer Maria Rilke

Chet Raymo, "In the Cave"

"In the Cave"
by Chet Raymo

"I have mentioned here before the ospreys that patrol our beach - or "fish hawks," as they call them here - generally in the afternoon at about the time I take my long walk to the palm point. Magnificent birds with broad wings that glide seemingly effortlessly on the wind. And here's the thing: As often as not I am startled by a bird's shadow before I see the bird itself. That wide-winged shadow, sweeping across the white sand, sometimes across me. That flicker of chill as the osprey blocks the sun.

And generally when it happens I think of Plato's allegory of the cave. Prisoners in a cave are constrained to look only at a blank wall. Somewhere behind them there is a fire, and people come and go in front of the fire, casting shadows on the wall. The shadows are the only reality the prisoners know. They have no idea of the flesh-and-blood people behind them or the blazing fire. The prisoners know only what presents itself to their senses.

Forget for the moment Plato's point, which has to do with the duty of the philosopher to enlighten the benighted. There is a humbling moral to the story for all of us: We can only know what our senses - directly or indirectly - can perceive.

Who, a century ago, could have imagined the universe of the galaxies, or the marvelous dance of the DNA in every cell of our bodies? By cleverly extending our senses - limited as they are - with technological enhancements a whole new universe has opened up to us. Who can imagine what we might know a century from now? Plato's "real" world is like a shadow compared to the universe we inhabit today. Our own universe may be a shadow of a reality vastly more wonderful than anything we have so far dreamed.

Never mind. We live in the world we have. Even the osprey's shadow is magnificent in its own way. I am privileged to lift my eyes and see the feathered bird. And I have an intuition that there is more - much more - yet to see.”

The Daily "Near You?"

Cordova, Tennessee, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Game Over. WW3 Just Entered a New Phase"

Canadian Prepper, 9/27/22:
"Game Over. WW3 Just Entered a New Phase"
"Everything just changed. In the next 24 hours 
tensions escalate to a whole new level. Get ready."
Comments here:

"Truth..."

"Truth: the most deadly weapon ever discovered by humanity.
Capable of destroying entire perceptual sets, cultures, and realities.
Outlawed by all governments everywhere.
Possession is normally punishable by death."
- John Gilmore

A comment: According to statistics compiled by the UN, by the time the sun rises tomorrow morning 30,000 children world wide will have died overnight from starvation and malnutrition, disease, lack of potable water, and lack of basic medical care. That's every night, all year long, 30,000 children dying because no one cared. Trillions of dollars wasted on insane wars, economies destroyed by psychopathic greed, the environment dying in front of our eyes, and no one cares. No wonder Sir Arthur Conan Doyle described humanity as, "Poor silly half-brained things peering out at the infinite, with the aspirations of angels and the instincts of beasts." The "instincts of beasts" is evident for all to see... sometimes all this wears us down, and we look around, hoping to see the "aspirations of angels," hoping desperately that we can somehow awaken from the madness crushing us all, that together we can still rise above the despair and hopelessness and make a better world, where no child dies from hunger, where wars are a distant memory, where everyone can live full, dignified and honorable lives in peace. An impossible, hopeless struggle? Perhaps, but how dare we call ourselves "Human" if we don't try to make that vision real, in any way we can, no matter the price? A dream, you say? Yes, that's all it is... but without those dreams, those aspirations, all that's left is the "instincts of beasts", and we all see very clearly what those have brought this world to...
- CP

"Warning! Safe Deposit Boxes Seized - Is Your Money Safe? Market Apocalypse, Crashing Daily"

Jeremiah Babe, 9/27/22:
"Warning! Safe Deposit Boxes Seized - Is Your Money Safe? 
Market Apocalypse, Crashing Daily"
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "The Global Financial System Is Collapsing; Home Prices Plunge At Fastest Pace On Record"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 9/27/22:
"The Global Financial System Is Collapsing;
 Home Prices Plunge At Fastest Pace On Record"
Comments here:

"Saying Things People Don't Want To Hear

"Saying Things People Don't Want To Hear
by Bruce Wilds

"If there were a "Saying Things People Don't Want To Hear Award" it would go to Dr. Jordan Peterson. He is a professor of psychology at the University of Toronto, a clinical psychologist, and the author of the multi-million copy bestseller "12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos", #1 for nonfiction in 2018 in the US, Canada, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden, the Netherlands, Brazil, and Norway.

In the interest of full disclosure, I have never heard of/or read his book. What did catch my eye was an interview on Sky News Australia that lasted just under seven minutes. In the first minute, Peterson comes out swinging. He does this by making the startling statement that there is more than a bit of Hitler in all of us. Not wishing to create a "spoiler alert" for those deciding to watch the short interview it is still fair to call his prediction of Ukraine's future grave.

Victory Is Often In The Eyes Of The Beholder: Peterson states any notions that the Russians are going to lose the war in Ukraine are “naïve." He then elaborates, “Or that we’re going to win,” he said. “I don’t understand that. What do you mean we’re going to win? What are we going to win here exactly?" Dr. Peterson said even if Vladimir Putin allowed Russia to retreat from Ukraine, the country would be left in “smoking ruins.”

For Russia, victory could be declared if they are successful in pushing back the advancing borders of NATO. Peterson also delves into the whole idea of totalitarian states. He also points out that America and NATO, if limited by reason, may not be able to respond with nuclear weapons if Putin decides to unleash a "tactical" nuclear weapon. In my opinion such an event could well redefine modern warfare.

Peterson keys in on the fact you cannot win against someone you cannot say no to. We sold our soul to Putin for his oil and gas. Putin holds the best cards in that he controls the gas flow into Europe. This winter has the potential to be very very ugly. If anything, I failed to enter the word very enough times in that last sentence."

Gonzalo Lira, "The Americans Declared War On Europe"

Gonzalo Lira, 9/27/22:
"The Americans Declared War On Europe"
Comments here:
Related:

"How It Really Is

 

No we won't...

"Shopping At Meijer - High Prices, And Some Empty Shelves! What's Next?"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 9/27/22:
"Shopping At Meijer - High Prices, 
And Some Empty Shelves! What's Next?"
"In today's vlog we are at Meijer, and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:

Must View! "Dam is Breaking in the Financial Markets"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 9/27/22:
"Dam is Breaking in the Financial Markets"
"With all these warnings from hurricanes, the stock market, inflation to the world economy people still don’t want to listen to this. There is still time to prepare. I really think that the Fed just wants to finish us off."
Comments here:
Related:

Gregory Mannarino, "October Stock Market "Surprise?" Debt Market Meltdown, Currency Crisis, Cratering Economy"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/27/22:
"October Stock Market "Surprise?" Debt Market Meltdown,
 Currency Crisis, Cratering Economy"
Comments here:
Related:

"Don't Wonder..."

"Don't wonder why people go crazy. Wonder why they don't.
In the face of what we can lose in a day, in an instant,
wonder what the hell it is that makes us hold it together."
- "Grey's Anatomy"

Monday, September 26, 2022

"Four Horsemen Of The Apocalypse On The March" (Excerpt)

"Four Horsemen Of The Apocalypse 
On The March" (Excerpt)
by Jim Quinn

“The least-bad scenario is a hard landing, global recession worse than the 1930s. The worst-case borrows from the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: war, famine, pestilence, and death.” - Kenneth S. Deffeye

“When hopes and dreams are loose in the streets, it is well for the timid to lock doors, shutter windows and lie low until the wrath has passed. For there is often a monstrous incongruity between the hopes, however noble and tender, and the action which follows them. It is as if ivied maidens and garlanded youths were to herald the four horsemen of the apocalypse.” 
- Eric Hoffer

Excerpt: "I don’t pretend to be a biblical scholar or have any particular expertise in interpreting scriptures, and certainly not the Book of Revelation, supposedly written by John of Patmos during the reign of Roman emperor Domitian sometime between 81 AD and 96 AD. But I did suffer through twelve years of Catholic school, with plenty of time reading the bible for homework assignments. I know many people take everything in the bible literally. I do not adhere to that understanding. I believe most, if not all, of the bible is parables and symbolism written by men as a means to guide early Christians in how they should live their lives. The wisdom imparted by these writers is vast and deep. The Book of Revelation is the most apocalyptic, mysterious, and prophetic.

I would agree with scholars who say Revelation does not refer to actual people or events but is an allegory of the spiritual path and the ongoing struggle between good and evil. But, as our modern-day world seems to be coming apart at the seams, the battle between good and evil is reaching a zenith, only seen at crucial turning points in history.

The scale of propaganda designed to mislead the public, scope of deceit exhibited by our hand-picked leaders, level of wickedness in the purposeful destruction of economic systems based on climate crisis lies, purposeful infliction of pain and suffering upon the masses through destruction of conventional food and energy structures, implosion of the financial system due to incompetence and/or willfully malicious motivations, and incessant provocations of Russia and China designed to ignite a global conflagration, are all part of one demonic plan.

Knowing we are reaching the most violent phase of this Fourth Turning and this kind of horrendous whirlwind has occurred during the fall of previous empires, does not make it any easier to confront or endure.

As the stock market implodes, draining the retirement savings of working men and women once again, inflation rages out of control, pushing lower and middle class families to the brink, our senile Trojan horse president, implements a country destroying agenda at the behest of his globalist handlers designed to incite a civil war, and the Deep State/Military Industrial Complex attempts to monetize Ukraine and Taiwan to fill their coffers with billions in war profits, the world teeters on the brink of a collapse which will make the Great Depression/World War II era seem like a walk in the park.

And very few people see it coming or are prepared in any way for the consequences. They have spent too much time in government school indoctrination centers, soaked up too much propaganda spewed by the corporate legacy media doing the bidding of those in power, have been misinformed and misled by the left wing Silicon Valley social media conglomerates, and are too distracted by their gadgets, social media likes, fake reality TV, and modern day sports circuses.

I’m certainly not predicting the end times or second coming of Christ, but the parable of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse sure seems applicable in this modern-day Crisis – the latest times that try men’s souls. We are in a time of Crisis, just as we were in the 1780’s, 1860’s, and 1940’s, all 80 years apart. The 2020’s will also go down in history as a time of fateful decisions, great battles, heroes, villains, and ultimately a purging of the existing social order - to be replaced by something better or far worse."
Full article is here:

"Brace For October Stock Market Crash As All Hell Is Breaking Loose"

Full screen recommended.
"Brace For October Stock Market 
Crash As All Hell Is Breaking Loose"
by Epic Economist

"Carnage is still underway in financial markets, and investors are rushing for the exits and repositioning while they still can because another painful stock market crash is on the horizon. In recent weeks, a massive sell-off accelerated after corporate earnings projections dropped below expectations, but things have gotten significantly more turbulent last Wednesday when the Federal Reserve delivered the third consecutive 75 basis points hike and signaled a steeper path of interest rate increases over the coming months. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 suffered heavy losses, and the Dow Jones entered the bear market territory, falling 20% from its peak. In a few days, we might see a lot more chaos sweeping through Wall Street. Experts and strategists are telling us that those who believe the market will still bounce back are simply delusional – and they are about to get a reality check. Some of the brightest minds in the financial world are saying we should all brace for a major shock – one that will not only affect stocks, but businesses, households, crypto markets, and the entire global economy.

In its September FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve explicitly said that Americans should get ready for a deep housing correction, higher unemployment, and an economic recession as it continues to raise rates to control inflation. At this point, the entire global economy is set to face what could be the worst growth shock since the financial crisis. But despite the clear warnings, some market players are still delusional about how the stock market will perform in the rest of the year and in 2023.

In August alone, the S&P 500 plunged by 11%, and the Dow fell 9%. Despite the losses, estimates for how much profit S&P 500 companies will earn next year seem completely out of touch with our economic reality. Wall Street's rosy projections for corporate profits do not consider the fact that even the nation’s biggest companies are struggling with slower business activity and declining consumer spending. Inflation is still wreaking havoc on the economy, and the worsening profit outlook means that the blindly optimistics are about to get burned.

Soon enough, when investors realize that there’s a flood of companies in financial distress, we’re going to see a devastating chain reaction. Nouriel Roubini, who foresaw the 2008 financial catastrophe, recently came forward to alert that deteriorating economic conditions all across the globe will make the S&P 500 experience a significant correction by the end of 2022, bringing a lot of pain for market players, indebted companies and U.S. households. Roubini, the chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, says that “the S&P 500 can fall by at least 30% in any recession,”. But the coming crash is probably going to be far steeper as we witness a “truly hard landing,” he says.

The truth is that no one really knows how much higher rates will go – or for how long the Fed will continue to hike them to be able cool inflation. But as the sênior correspondent at Insider, Linette Lopez, noted: “Whether that results in a short downturn or a recession, we know that whatever is coming won't be positive for corporate earnings. Since 1960, earnings have dropped during recessions by an average of 31%. And the longer the economic slump — and by extension, the profit slump — lasts, the worse it will be for stocks.”

Well... In other words, all of the images we’ve seen of a screaming-red stock market and sweaty traders doing the sign of the cross reflect the beginning of the end. Wall Street has been flying so high it forgot that stocks don't always go up. And, as Lopez outlined, the higher you fly, the farther you fall. The law of gravity never fails to catch us up."

"In 72 Hours... Things Get Real Weird"

Canadian Prepper, 9/26/22:
"In 72 Hours... Things Get Real Weird"
"This could be a week for the history books."
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: 2002, "Inner Light"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "Inner Light"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Point your telescope toward the high flying constellation Pegasus and you can find this expanse of Milky Way stars and distant galaxies. Centered on NGC 7814, the pretty field of view would almost be covered by a full moon. NGC 7814 is sometimes called the Little Sombrero for its resemblance to the brighter more famous M104, the Sombrero Galaxy.
Both Sombrero and Little Sombrero are spiral galaxies seen edge-on, and both have extensive central bulges cut by a thinner disk with dust lanes in silhouette. In fact, NGC 7814 is some 40 million light-years away and an estimated 60,000 light-years across. That actually makes the Little Sombrero about the same physical size as its better known namesake, appearing to be smaller and fainter only because it is farther away. A very faint dwarf galaxy, potentially a satellite of NGC 7814, is revealed in the deep exposure just below the Little Sombrero.”

Chet Raymo, “The Journey”

“The Journey”
by Chet Raymo

“Here’s a Sloan Digital Sky Survey map of the universe. This Sloan Digital Sky Survey map of the universe is 2 billion light-years deep. Each point represents a galaxy with a measured redshift. Maps like this have revealed the signature of enormous sound waves rippling through the early universe.

A smoke of galaxies! (2 trillion galaxies according to latest estimates.- CP) A universe cobwebbed with Milky Ways! Each galaxy itself a smoke of stars, hundreds of billions of stars, many or all of them with planets. My book, “Walking Zero,” is about the human journey from the omphalos of our birth into the world of the galaxies, a journey many of us are disinclined to make. Here is how the Prologue to the book begins:

“Each of us is born at the center of the world. For nine months our physical selves are assembled molecule by molecule, cell by cell, in the dark covert of our mother’s womb. A single fertilized egg cell splits into two. Then four. Eight. Sixteen. Thirty-two. Ultimately, 50 trillion cells or so. At first, our future self is a mere blob of protoplasm. But slowly, ever so slowly, the blob begins to differentiate under the direction of genes. A symmetry axis develops. A head, a tail, a spine. At this point, the embryo might be that of a human, or a chicken, or a marmoset. Limbs form. Digits, with tiny translucent nails. Eyes, with papery lids. Ears pressed like flowers against the head. Clearly now a human. A nose, nostrils. Downy hair. Genitals.

As the physical self develops, so too a mental self takes shape, not yet conscious, not yet self-aware, knitted together as webs of neurons in the brain, encapsulating in some respects the evolutionary experience of our species. Instincts impressed by the genes. The instinct to suck, for example. Already, in the womb, the fetus presses its tiny fist against its mouth in anticipation of the moment when the mouth will be offered the mother’s breast. The child will not have to be taught to suck. Other inborn behaviors will express themselves later. Laughing. Crying. Striking out in anger. Loving.

What, if anything, goes on in the mind of the developing fetus we may never know. But this much seems certain: To the extent that the emerging self has any awareness of its surroundings, its world is coterminous with itself. We are not born with knowledge of the antipodes, the plains of Mars, or the far-flung realm of the galaxies. We are not born with knowledge of Precambrian seas, the supercontinent of Pangea, or the Age of Dinosaurs. We are born into a world scarcely older than ourselves and scarcely larger than ourselves. And we are at its center.

A human life is a journey into the grandeur of a universe that may contain more galaxies than there are cells in the human body, a universe in which the whole of a human lifetime is but a single tick of the cosmic clock. The journey can be disorienting; our first instincts are towards coziness, comfort, our mother’s enclosing arms, her breast. The journey, therefore, requires courage – for each individual, and for our species.

Uniquely of all animals, humans have the capacity to let our minds expand into the space and time of the galaxies. No other creatures can number the cells in their bodies, as we can, or count the stars. No other creatures can imagine the explosive birth of the observable universe 14 billion years ago from an infinitely hot, infinitely small seed of energy. That we choose to make this journey – from the all-sustaining womb into the vertiginous spaces and abyss of time – is the glory of our species, and perhaps our most frightening challenge.”

"Hell..."

“'Why did people call it Hell?' I wondered. No place was Hell, no place could be Hell. It’s the people calling it Hell, that’s the only thing that made it so. People just sticking names on places, so that no one could see those places properly anymore. No, Hell wasn’t anything to do with place, Hell was all to do with people. Maybe Hell was people.”
- John Marsden

"How Far Could Stocks Fall?"

"How Far Could Stocks Fall?"
by Jim Rickards

"The stock market was down again today, the exchanges beginning where they left off last week. But it’s the larger trend that’s really disconcerting. Investors don’t need to be told about the stock market collapse in recent months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down over 20% since January. The S&P 500 is down 23% since January. And the Nasdaq Composite is down 32% since its all-time high last November.

Those falls are not as bad as the crashes in March 2020 during the pandemic or late 2008 during the global financial crisis, but those comparisons offer little comfort since they were among the worst in history. The real problem for stock investors today is not that the crash is bad so far, but that it might just be getting started. We may be looking at losses that more closely resemble the over-80% collapse of the Dow Jones from 1929–1932 or the 80% collapse of the Nasdaq in 2000–2001 in the wake of the dot-com bubble.

Different Causes, Same Outcome: The culprit this time will not be reckless mortgage lending, Chinese viruses or sock puppet spokespersons. The danger is the much higher interest rates needed to squash global inflation. Rates have been going up since last spring, but inflation continues at very high levels. The question for analysts and investors is how high will rates have to go before inflation falls to levels deemed acceptable by central bankers.

Most observers have connected the interest rate hikes with the fight against inflation, but relatively few have realized the full implications. The real key to fighting inflation is to do so by increasing unemployment.

Fed Chair Jay Powell had a lot to say at a press conference following last Wednesday’s decision to raise interest rates another 75 basis points (the Fed’s third consecutive 75-basis-point increase).

Job One: Powell began by emphasizing that stopping inflation was Job One. He said, “Without price stability the economy does not work for anyone.” He noted that “Growth in consumer spending has slowed.” His key phrase was “The labor market has remained extremely tight… Job openings are incredibly high… They need… to come down.” That’s Powell’s way of saying higher unemployment is the key to lower inflation.

Powell also said, “We think that we’ll need to bring our funds rate to a restrictive level and to keep it there for some time.” Restrictive level means a level that will cause inflation to drop toward the desired target over time. When asked when restrictive policy levels will be reached, Powell said “There’s a ways to go.” To emphasize the point, Powell also said, “We’re committed to getting to a restrictive level… and getting there pretty quickly.”

The Endgame: What is the Fed’s target exactly? Powell said the target was “to bring inflation down to 2%,” the Fed’s desired rate.  When asked about the 2% inflation target, Powell said “We can’t fail to do that.” He went on to say, “We have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that but there isn’t.”

You get the point. Rates will have to go to 4.75% (from the current level of 3.0%) in the hope that inflation (as measured by core PCE year over year, the Fed’s favorite gauge) drops from 4.6% to 3.5%. At that point, real rates will be over 1.0% and the Fed will wait as long as a year for inflation to drop from 3.5% to the Fed’s target of 2.0%.

The real takeaway here is that Powell is dead serious about hitting a 2% inflation target. It seems he’ll raise rates as long as it takes to get there. He’s in a hurry to do so. And he was completely candid about the fact that there would be economic pain in the process.
Unfortunately, the cost will be a severe recession and a rise of unemployment to 5% or higher ( "The August 2022 ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate gained 0.2% to 24.6%.") millions of job losses, massive business failures, billions of dollars in bad debts and a continued crash in stock prices.

Will Powell Back Down? This suggests some critically important questions. Will Powell actually have the stomach to force rates up to 4.75%, about where they need to go to slow inflation? Based on his remarks, the answer is yes. But we’ll have to wait and see.

The Fed was raising rates and reducing its balance sheet when on Dec. 24, 2018, the stock market tanked and proceeded to fall 20% in 2½ months. Powell panicked and pivoted again to monetary easing. Maybe he’ll do it again. But there’s an important difference between then and now. There was no inflation to speak of in 2018. The Fed could therefore afford to pivot to easing without any real concern about inflation.

That’s obviously not the case in late 2022. Inflation is the Fed’s biggest concern right now, and Powell is making it clear that he’s serious about getting control of it, even if it results in a lot of economic and financial pain.

All Pain, No Gain: The problem, which I’ve addressed many times, is that the Fed has misdiagnosed the nature of today’s inflation. The Fed is trying to crush inflation by reducing demand in the economy. They’re focusing on “demand pull” inflation where consumers are buying in anticipation of even higher inflation to come. But the inflation we’re seeing is called “cost push” inflation. This comes from the supply side, not the demand side. It comes from global supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine.

Since the Fed has misdiagnosed the disease, they are applying the wrong medicine. Tight money won’t solve a supply shock. Higher prices will continue. But tight money will hurt consumers, increase savings and raise mortgage interest rates, which hurts housing among other things. So the question is how much damage will Powell’s quest do to the economy and markets? That’s the biggest issue. The answer is that Powell will do far more damage than he expects.

History shows that the Fed will overshoot. There won’t be any “soft landing.” That damage may help Powell get to his inflation target. But it will increase unemployment and destroy stock markets along the way. That’s if all goes according to plan. The actual scenario could be worse. Market people are not ready for this. But you should be."

"Markets Are In Critical Condition As FED Steps Away; The Global Debt Crisis Is Getting Dangerous"

Jeremiah Babe, 9/26/22:
"Markets Are In Critical Condition As FED Steps Away; 
The Global Debt Crisis Is Getting Dangerous"
Comments here:

The Daily "Near You?"

Wasilla, Alaska, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

“In The Long Run… We Are All Alive”

“In The Long Run… We Are All Alive”
by MN Gordon

“In 1976, economist Herbert Stein, father of Ben Stein, the economics professor in Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, observed that U.S. government debt was on an unsustainable trajectory. He, thus, established Stein’s Law: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” Stein may have been right in theory. Yet the unsustainable trend of U.S. government debt outlasted his life. Herbert Stein died in 1999, several decades before the crackup. Those reading this may not be so lucky.

Sometimes the end of the world comes and goes, while some of us are still here. We believe our present episode of debt, deficits, and state sponsored economic destruction, is one of these times. We’ll have more on this in just a moment. But first, let’s peer back several hundred years. There we find context, edification, and instruction.

In 1696, William Whiston, a protégé of Isaac Newton, wrote a book. It had the grandiose title, “A New Theory of the Earth from its Original to the Consummation of All Things.” In it he proclaimed, among other things, that the global flood of Noah had been caused by a comet. Mr. Whiston took his book very serious. The good people of London took it very serious too. Perhaps it was Whiston’s conviction. Or his great fear of comets. But, for whatever reason, it never occurred to Londoners that he was a Category 5 quack.

Like Neil Ferguson, and his mathematical biology cohorts at Imperial College, London, Whiston’s research filled a void. Much like today’s epidemiological models, the science was bunk. Nonetheless, the results supplied prophecies of the apocalypse to meet a growing demand. It was just a matter of time before Whiston’s research would cause trouble…

Judgement Day: In 1736, William Whiston crunched some data and made some calculations. He projected these calculations out and saw the future. And what he witnessed scared him mad. He barked. He ranted. He foamed at the mouth to anyone who would listen. Pretty soon he’d stirred up his neighbors with a prophecy that the world would be destroyed on October 13th of that year when a comet would collide with the earth.

Jonathan Swift, in his work, “A True and Faithful Narrative of What Passed in London on a Rumour of the Day of Judgment,” quoted Whiston: “Friends and fellow-citizens, all speculative science is at an end: the period of all things is at hand; on Friday next this world shall be no more. Put not your confidence in me, brethren; for tomorrow morning, five minutes after five, the truth will be evident; in that instant the comet shall appear, of which I have heretofore warned you. As ye have heard, believe. Go hence, and prepare your wives, your families, and friends, for the universal change.”

Clergymen assembled to offer prayers. Churches filled to capacity. Rich and paupers alike feared their judgement. Lawyers worried about their fate. Judges were relieved they were no longer lawyers. Teetotalers got smashed. Drunks got sober. Bankers forgave their debtors. Criminals, to be executed, expressed joy.

The wealthy gave their money to beggars. Beggars gave it back to the wealthy. Several rich and powerful gave large donations to the church; no doubt, reserving first class tickets to heaven. Many ladies confessed to their husbands that one or more of their children were bastards. Husbands married their mistresses. And on and on…

The Archbishop of Canterbury, William Wake, had to officially deny this prediction to ease the public consternation. But it did little good. Crowds gathered at Islington, Hampstead, and the surrounding fields, to witness the destruction of London, which was deemed the “beginning of the end.” Then, just like Whiston said, a comet appeared. Prayers were made. Deathbed confessions were shared. And at the moment of maximum fear, something remarkable happened: the world didn’t end. The comet did not collide with earth. It was merely a near miss.

The experience of Whiston, and his pseudoscience prophecy, shows that predictions of the end of the world come and go while people still remain. Sometimes the fallout of these predictions, and the foolishness they provoke, is limited. Other times the foolishness they provoke leads to catastrophe. Here’s what we mean…

Unfortunately for Whiston, he’d never heard of the Mayan prophecy or the 5,125-year Mayan Long Count calendar.  If he had, he’d have known that the end of the world is today.Obviously, if you are reading this, the Mayan’s got it wrong too. But not entirely. The end of the world as we know it keeps coming and going; somehow, life after the end of the world goes on. Here’s what we mean…

“In the long run we are all dead,” said 20th Century economist and Fabian socialist, John Maynard Keynes. This was Keynes rationale for why governments should borrow from the future to fund economic growth today. Of course, politicians love an academic theory that gives them cover to intervene in the economy. This is especially so when it justifies spending other people’s money to buy votes. Keynesian economics, and in particular, counter-cyclical stimulus, does just that.

For the Mayans the end of the world came around 900 AD. That was about the time their civilization went into irreparable decline. But not all Mayans died. Some continued to live after the end of the Mayan world as they knew it, only to have the Mayan world end again – with the arrival of the Spanish Conquistadors.

Yet humans are a persistent species. Some Mayans continued to live, even after the end of the world. In fact, there are approximately 800,000 Mayans currently living on Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula. But today’s Mayans, like today’s postmodern Americans, live less by independence and humility than by big government.

“When people planted their corn fields 50 years ago, everybody from all the towns around would pray for good harvests,” said Mayan priest and farmer Petronilo Acevedo Pena. “But when the government started giving out aid, seeds and fertilizer, what do the people do now? They go to the government to ask for help.”

U.S. politicians have attempted to borrow and spend the nation to prosperity for the last 80 years. Over the past decade, the Federal Reserve has aggressively printed money to fund Washington’s epic borrowing binge. The world as it was once known – where a dollar was as good as gold – has come and gone. Today, in life after the end of that world, we are witnessing the illusion of wealth, erected by four generations of borrowing and spending, crumble before our eyes. Moreover, contrary to Keynes, in the long run we are not all dead. In fact, in the long run we are all very much alive. And we are all living with the compounding consequences of shortsighted economic policies."

"Welcome to life after the end of the world.”

Jim Kunstler, "This Is the Way the World Ends"

"This Is the Way the World Ends"
Feel like we’re on the ragged edge of something 
new and awful? You are not alone…
by Jim Kunstler

"That “singularity” so many blab about is not what they think it is: the merging of human intelligence with Bill Gates’s Office products, leading to an orgasmic nirvana of infinite memoranda from your HR department concerning new diversity, inclusion, and equity policy. Rather, I speak of the magic moment when the necromancers of finance discover that the proverbial can they’ve been kicking is filled with Schroedinger’s cat food… and the road they’ve been kicking it down actually comes to a dead end up their own highly-credentialed wazoos. Economics will never be the same hereafter.

The bond market has gone south, and that spells The End for the great game of financialization. The bond market is Moby Dick compared to the little blowfish that is the stock market. The global money system is based on bonds, which are… what? That’s right: loans… promises to pay you X at some future moment. So, what happens when a daisy-chain of promises-to-pay gets broken? Or, perhaps more precisely, when all those promises lose their last shred of plausible reality? Why, the money that these broken promises are denominated in loses its essential cred. Trick question: how much is worthless money worth? (Answer: not enough to pay for a can of Scroedinger’s cat food.)

Which is where all this folderol leaves a lot of ordinary people all over Western Civ (and beyond!) trying to scratch up enough increasingly worthless money to feed the family and pay the landlord. Many will never understand what happened. But they will not be any less pissed off at the result.

This is the way the world ends for the hapless phantom known as “Joe Biden” the child-sniffing ectoplasm that haunts the White House these days of late empire. Somehow, the bamboozled nation has so far passively accepted the pranks and punishments laid on them by the backstage managers behind the Figment-in-Chief. Eight-plus percent inflation? No problemo, right? Eighty-seven thousand new IRS agents on-board to drive you batshit while destroying your household and your posterity (ha!)? Half the population of South America flooding across the border? (The vibrancy! You no like?) A hundred dollar fill-up at the gas pump, and no heat for you this winter? (But… Netflix!) Drag queens to amuse and edify your children about the delirious realm of sexual pathology. All that…and how about a Russian hypersonic nuclear missile up your ass if the preceding somehow failed to move you? (Because: Russia, Russia, Russia…!)

Meanwhile, a trend is manifesting in other lands. The people of, first, Sweden and now Italy are voting in “right wing” nationalist governments - the horror - sending their equivalent of our Party of Chaos to the showers. This has irked the President of the European Union, one Ursula von der Leyen, no end. She has threatened to send Italy to its room without supper for the effrontery Of course, Madame von der Leyen’s fellow Germans have already been sent to their room without so much as a kartoffelklop, plus no heat or hot showers for you, Hansel and Gretel. Embrace the suck.

You may be sure that we’re in for the business here in America, too. The thermometers are trending down and Halloween won’t be so much fun when the little goblins come home to a house that’s the same temperature inside as the night air outside. Little Skippy’s face is turning blue, and not because he went trick-or-treating as Robert the Bruce.

The aforementioned Party of Chaos, the gang that queered the last big election, is surely gearing up to run a whole lot of work-arounds for massaging the November 8 midterm vote in their direction. Nothing is beyond them. One of their avatars, the podcaster Sam Harris, said it out loud a month ago: that lying and cheating is perfectly ethical in service to the Left’s being able to continue imposing its will upon all of us. Whoops! He let Schroedinger’s cat out of its hypothetical sack. The punishments must continue until morale improves! (Hope you enjoyed your career, Sam.)

And so it begins… as they intone in the horror movies when the contents of the family’s raised ranch, chattels, children, mom, dad, the golden retriever all get sucked out of the universe via some quantum portal in the television. Today the markets, tomorrow our beloved country will be overrun by what’ll look like an alien invasion of re-po men. This is the way the world ends… not with a bang… but with a physics lesson: the lonesome sound of Schroedinger’s cat’s meow."
"The Hollow Men"

I
"We are the hollow men,
We are the stuffed men,
Leaning together
Headpiece filled with straw. Alas!
Our dried voices, when
We whisper together
Are quiet and meaningless
As wind in dry grass,
Or rats' feet over broken glass
In our dry cellar.

Shape without form, shade without color,
Paralyzed force, gesture without motion;
Those who have crossed
With direct eyes, to death's other Kingdom
Remember us-if at all-not as lost
Violent souls, but only
As the hollow men,
The stuffed men.

II
Eyes I dare not meet in dreams,
In death's dream kingdom
These do not appear:
There, the eyes are
Sunlight on a broken column.
There, is a tree swinging,
And voices are
In the wind's singing,
More distant and more solemn
Than a fading star.

Let me be no nearer
In death's dream kingdom.
Let me also wear
Such deliberate disguises
Rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves
In a field
Behaving as the wind behaves
No nearer-
Not that final meeting
In the twilight kingdom

III
This is the dead land,
This is cactus land.
Here the stone images
Are raised, here they receive
The supplication of a dead man's hand
Under the twinkle of a fading star.

Is it like this
In death's other kingdom,
Waking alone
At the hour when we are
Trembling with tenderness,
Lips that would kiss
Form prayers to broken stone.

IV
The eyes are not here,
There are no eyes here
In this valley of dying stars,
In this hollow valley,
This broken jaw of our lost kingdoms

In this last of meeting places
We grope together
And avoid speech,
Gathered on this beach of the tumid river
Sightless, unless
The eyes reappear,
As the perpetual star
Multifoliate rose
Of death's twilight kingdom,
The hope only
Of empty men.

V
Here we go round the prickly pear,
Prickly pear, prickly pear,
Here we go round the prickly pear
At five o'clock in the morning.

Between the idea
And the reality,
Between the motion
And the act,
Falls the Shadow.
                                     
                                           For Thine is the Kingdom...

Between the conception
And the creation,
Between the emotion
And the response,
Falls the Shadow

                         Life is very long...

Between the desire
And the spasm,
Between the potency
And the existence,
Between the essence
And the descent,
Falls the Shadow.

                                         For Thine is the Kingdom...

For Thine is,
Life is,
For Thine is the,

This is the way the world ends,
This is the way the world ends,
This is the way the world ends,
Not with a bang but a whimper."

- T.S. Eliot
SoundCloud:

"Banks are Preparing for Power Blackouts"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 9/26/22:
"Banks are Preparing for Power Blackouts"
"Things are getting crazier and crazier. Banks are starting to prepare for blackouts. This is happening globally with all the major banks preparing for power outages."
Comments here: