"August Inflation Shocks Expectations"

"August Inflation Shocks Expectations"

by Brian Maher

“U.S. Consumer Prices Blow Away Expectations, Rise For 27th Straight Month”... “The Hottest U.S. Inflation in 40 Years Shows Little Sign of Cooling Off”... "Stocks Tank After August Inflation Data”...There is but a sample of today’s fevered headlines.

The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) came issuing this morning. It revealed that consumer prices increased 0.1% since July. We might inform you that 47 of 50 polled economists “missed” - and to the downside. Yet we are in magnanimous spirits today. And so we will not.

They nonetheless forecast a 0.1% price fall from July… and got the 0.1% price rise instead. Rather than the 8% year-over-year inflation they projected, August year-over-year inflation came in at 8.3% Meantime, core CPI is the Federal Reserve's inflation metric of choice. It rinses out food and energy prices. Today’s report reveals that core CPI galloped 0.6% in August. The wiseacres forecast a mere 0.4% jog past July’s rate.

But Gas Prices Are Down! The foregoing presents an apparent conundrum: Energy prices push inflation up. Yet gasoline prices are in swift retreat - are they not? It is true, the data reveal they are. CPI’s energy component slipped 5% from July. That represents the largest backing-up since April 2020, when lockdowns entered force. The gasoline index, most notably and conspicuously, plunged 10.6% in August.

What then explains August’s inflationary gurgles? What resolves the conundrum? Zero Hedge:

"The big shock was the food index which increased 11.4% over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1979, while the food at home index rose 13.5% the largest 12-month increase since the period ending March 1979."

These are the rising food prices the Federal Reserve looks away from… incidentally. You of course cannot look away from them. Your eyes leap from their sockets each time you sight the bill, gobsmacked and astonished. In all, 70% of the CPI bundle registered an August increase exceeding 4%.

When Will The Inflation Reduction Act Kick In? August shelter and rent leaped to 6.24% from July's 5.69%. Health insurance costs jumped 2.4% from July’s - and are up 24.3% on the year. Thus “transitory” inflation has taken on a sort of permanence. Bankrate’s Mark Hamrick gives the overall view: "The prices for necessities continue to fuel this fire, including shelter, food and medical care. The substantial decline in gasoline prices is noteworthy but doesn’t address the overall problem with inflation."

Adds Mr. Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Analytics: "The core inflation numbers were hot across the board. The breadth of the strong price increases, from new vehicles to medical care services to rent growth, everything was up strongly. That was the most disconcerting aspect of the report."

Meantime, CNBC warns that today’s report challenges “the inflation narrative”: "For the better part of a year, the inflation narrative among many economists and policymakers was that it was essentially a food and fuel problem. Once supply chains eased and gas prices abated, the thinking went, that would help lower food costs and in turn ease price pressures across the economy. August’s consumer price index numbers, however, tested that narrative severely, with broadening increases indicating now that inflation could be more persistent and entrenched than previously thought."

Just so. How do you like it?

Falling Wages for 17 Consecutive Months: Are you keeping up? Alas you are not. Real wages declined for the 17th consecutive month in August. That is, your wilting paycheck has fetched you less and less for the 17th consecutive month. Thus inflation is a supremely skillful pickpocket. It is justly and aptly named the invisible thief. And it presently has you by the ear.

On such days as these we often consult Mr. John Williams’ ShadowStats site. That is because this fellow scatters the statistical fogs - the statistical fogs government throws up to conceal true inflation. Mr. Williams reveals that the true inflation rate far, far exceeds the official rate. Yet today our courage would not answer. We feared a true accounting would fluster us, wobble us and diminish our already diminished spirits. And so we stayed away.

Yet perhaps you are of an optimistic turn of mind. You are a glass half-full man and a silver lining-seeker. Here then is your half-full water glass and your silver edging: The costs of airline tickets, coffee - and fruit - declined last month. Yet there was no joy on Wall Street today…

A Vicious Thumping: The stock market took a vicious whaling, harpooned heavily by the report. The Dow Jones plummeted a harrowing 1,276 points on the day. The S&P 500 took a 177-point trouncing and the poor Nasdaq Composite hemorrhaged 632 points - a 5.16% defeat. Gold lost $28 - precisely - while Bitcoin lost $2,091, at writing at least.

Today’s report gave Wall Street a good reminder that it can stow all hopes of Federal Reserve clemency near term. Principal Global Investors chief global strategist Seema Shah: "Today’s inflation data cements a third consecutive 0.75% increase in the fed funds rate next week… core CPI is once again on the rise, confirming the very sticky nature of the U.S. inflation problem. Until the Fed can tame that beast, there is simply no room for a discussion on pivots or pauses."

This Shah claims today’s inflation data “cements” a third consecutive 0.75% rate hike. Yet could the Federal Reserve resort to action bolder yet? Might it elevate rates a full percentage point next week - by a thumping 1%? The market presently gives 32% odds of it. Yesterday it gave 0% odds.

Tightening Upon Tightening: Meantime, the odds of a 0.75% November hike leaped to 60% and the odds of a 1% December hike near 50%. Thus we discover that the federal funds rate may exceed 4% by year’s end. When we factor for the quantitative tightening presently underway, the Federal Reserve may squeeze markets plenty hard. Its quantitative easing may hack away $1 trillion from the balance sheet this year. Estimates are that a $1 trillion carving equals one percentage point of rate hikes.

The stock market - and the economy - may then confront a 5% effective rate before long. Neither can withstand a 5% rate… by our reckoning at least. Only one question remains: What is the breaking point? We do not know of course. No one truly does. Yet unless the gods are exceedingly and unfashionably kind, we will have our answer soon enough…"

- dailyreckoning.com

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"Consumer Demand Collapses As Global Economy Implodes"

Musical Interlude: Liquid Mind, "My Orchid Spirit (Extragalactic)"

Full screen recommended!

Liquid Mind, "My Orchid Spirit (Extragalactic)"

"A Look to the Heavens"

From Sagittarius to Carina, the Milky Way Galaxy shines in this dark night sky above planet Earth’s lush island paradise of Mangaia. Familiar to denizens of the southern hemisphere, the gorgeous skyscape includes the bulging galactic center at the upper left and bright stars Alpha and Beta Centauri just right of center. About 10 kilometers wide, volcanic Mangaia is the southernmost of the Cook Islands. Geologists estimate that at 18 million years old it is the oldest island in the Pacific Ocean.

Of course, the Milky Way is somewhat older, with the galaxy’s oldest stars estimated to be over 13 billion years old. (Editor’s note: This image holds the distinction of being selected as winner in the Royal Observatory, Greenwich, Astronomy Photographer of the Year competition in the Earth and Space category.)“

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap110924.html

Free Download: Jack London, "The Iron Heel"

"I know nothing that I may say can influence you. You have no souls to be influenced. You are spineless, flaccid things. You pompously call yourselves Republicans and Democrats. You are lick-spittlers and panderers, the creatures of the Plutocracy."

- Jack London

Freely download "The Iron Heel", by Jack London, here:

- https://www.globalgreyebooks.com/iron-heel-ebook.html

Read online The Project Gutenberg eBook 

of "The Iron Heel", by Jack London, here:

- https://www.gutenberg.org/files/1164/1164-h/1164-h.htm

"Man's Nature..."

"Man has one name, and many more than two natures. But the essential

two are these: that he shall strive to impose order on chaos,

and that he shall strive to take advantage of chaos…

A third element of man's nature is this:

that he shall not understand what he is doing."

- John Brunner

The Poet: David Whyte, "The Winter of Listening"

"The Winter of Listening"

"No one but me by the fire,

my hands burning red in the palms while

the night wind carries everything away outside.

All this petty worry while the great cloak

of the sky grows dark and intense

round every living thing.

What is precious inside us does not

care to be known by the mind

in ways that diminish its presence.

What we strive for in perfection

is not what turns us into the lit angel we desire,

what disturbs and then nourishes

has everything we need.

What we hate in ourselves

is what we cannot know in ourselves but

what is true to the pattern does not need

to be explained.

Inside everyone is a great shout of joy

waiting to be born.

Even with the summer so far off

I feel it grown in me now and ready

to arrive in the world.

All those years listening to those

who had nothing to say.

All those years forgetting how everything

has its own voice to make itself heard.

All those years forgetting how easily

you can belong to everything

simply by listening.

And the slow difficulty

of remembering how everything

is born from an opposite

and miraculous otherness.

Silence and winter

has led me to that otherness.

So let this winter of listening

be enough for the new life

I must call my own."

- David Whyte,

"The House of Belonging"

The Daily "Near You?"

Kuantan, Pahang, Malaysia. Thanks for stopping by!

Gregory Mannarino, "Stock Market Nose Dives! No Accountability For The Fed, And Its About To Get Much Worse"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 9/13/22:

"Stock Market Nose Dives! No Accountability 

For The Fed, And Its About To Get Much Worse"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

○

Update at Market Close, 4 PM EST 9/13/22:

"My Own View..."

“My own view is that this planet is used as a penal colony, lunatic asylum and

dumping ground by a superior civilization, to get rid of the undesirable and unfit.

I can’t prove it, but you can’t disprove it either.”

- Christopher Hitchens

○

Robert Gore, "Rage, Rebel, Replace"

"Rage, Rebel, Replace"

by Robert Gore

"Let’s try something different.

"We hold these Truths to be self-evident, that all Men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness - That to secure these Rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just Powers from the Consent of the Governed, that whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these Ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its Foundation on such Principles, and organizing its Powers in such Form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient Causes; and accordingly all Experience hath shewn, that Mankind are more disposed to suffer, while Evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the Forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long Train of Abuses and Usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object, evinces a Design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their Right, it is their Duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future Security."

- "The Declaration of Independence," 1776

It is disheartening how many people are pinning their hopes on the next two elections. We still don’t know exactly how the last one was stolen - the thieves were never charged, evidence was never presented, there was no discovery, cross-examination, or verdict in a court of law -but stolen it was. Yet, many believe Lucy won’t pull the football away this time.

In 2020, no one showed up for Joe and Kamala’s appearances while Trump was pulling them in by the tens of thousands. Trump got more votes than any sitting president had ever received, but Biden supposedly beat him by 7 million votes. There were myriad inconsistencies and irregularities, many connected with procedures concocted to deal with the overhyped Covid threat. However, the election was pronounced free and fair, January 6 protestors were arrested and jailed, Trump relinquished the presidency, and that was that, a bipartisan-endorsed end of story.

Everything the Democrats have done since Biden halted the Keystone XL pipeline on inauguration day seems designed to lose votes, and the polls register fading support. Yet, the Democrats are acting as if they have this year’s elections in the bag, just as they did in 2020.

Politicians interested in winning legitimate elections don’t appropriate $80 billion three months before the election to hire 87,0000 new IRS agents, some of whom will be armed, to harass tax-paying voters. They don’t conduct a raid on the home of their hated opponent, handing him an issue which solidifies his support. They don’t engage in a Quixotic proxy war on the doorstep of a nuclear power. Their nominal leader doesn’t disparage half the population in a creepy, neo-Nazi setting and speech. Is it because the vote doesn’t matter, only, per Joseph Stalin, who counts the votes?

On that score not much has changed. The documentary "2000 Mules" came and went; once in a while someone mumbles something about election integrity, and a few states have passed a few laws purportedly ensuring fairer votes (“restricting voter access” in Democratic parlance).

The “who” counting the votes will be, for the most part, the same officials who counted them the last time. Many states will continue to use programmable and internet-connected voting machines. Ranked choice voting is the newest scheme. The Biden administration has opened the southern border for millions of sure-thing Democratic voters. No one will be surprised if a manufactured emergency requires mail-in voting and the rest of the 2020 rigamarole. And no one should be surprised if the Democrats “miraculously” hold on to the House and Senate. Republicans, of course, will shout, “Just wait until 2024!”

The professed faith in elections dismays. The notion that changing from blue to red will change anything substantive dismays still more. The delusion that government can solve problems created by government, the lack of understanding that it is the mortal enemy of the honest and the productive, dismays the most.

Neither party cares about fair elections because together they constitute the Corruptocracy. The U.S. government is the largest criminal enterprise in history and there’s enough booty to go around. Regardless of who is nominally in power, warfare and welfare-state rackets rake it in. Nothing says “Republican” quite like their failure to repeal Obamacare when they controlled the House, Senate, and presidency, although they voted seven times to do so when Obama was president (and they knew he’d veto the legislation). It’s all for show.

Trump was a welcome rhetorical hand grenade, but nothing fundamental changed during his presidency. The government got bigger, more powerful, and more indebted, as it has under every president since Hoover. The warfare and welfare states thrived. The same deep staters who controlled the permanent bureaucracy in 2016 control it now. Trump’s Covid response was a totalitarian expansion of power for politicians and medical bureaucrats. He warp-speeded gene-altering agents that will injure and kill more people than the virus and its variants. And he still brags about it! Trump is all about Trump.

Faith in government is the deepest and most misguided faith in human experience. At root, it’s faith in violence. Every human confronts two unalterable truths. From Francis Bacon: “Nature, to be commanded, must be obeyed.” Nature - reality - operates according to its own laws. The second verity: we all live and interact with other human beings.

Violence has no place in the discovery and employment of nature’s laws. Pounding the earth with a club won’t free you from gravity. Discovering the principles governing flight might. Ritual human sacrifice to the rain gods won’t produce water for crops. Devising systems of irrigation and water storage might. Nature is a trove of secrets, but they’re only revealed through inquiry and experimentation, not violence.

Violence has no place in human interaction, except in self-defense. It is fundamentally immoral for one person to initiate violence against another. A supposed right to do so cannot be exercised by everyone and thus, being non-universal, is not a right. It doesn’t become right or moral when someone in government is pointing the gun. Ayn Rand argued that the immoral is also impractical, it is contrary to human survival. Violence destroys progress, happiness, and life itself.

The foundation of government is violence. The only conceivable justification for it is as an agent that uses violence solely in furtherance of its principals’ - the people - right of self-defense. That’s not what today’s believers in government have in mind.

Governments’ record of destruction and death is there for all to see. Whatever rationale those who seek to control governments offer, at core they want to force those they subjugate to comply with their whims and dictates, and to eliminate those who won’t. Volumes have been written on the motives and psychology of such people, although it’s not a particularly interesting subject. For our purposes, it’s enough to say that they are intellectually, psychologically, and morally deficient. They have failed to reach the “live and let live” stage of human maturation, with its implicit commitment to the Golden Rule.

To expect the Deficient to reform the systems that confer their power is the ultimate triumph of hope over experience. The next election will not change anything, nor will the election after that one nor the one after that, not even if we elect “our” people rather than “their” people. Governments guided by might makes right don’t improve from within, regardless of who runs them.

Resting on violence and run by the Deficient, governments invariably fail. The ones that haven’t are in the process of doing so. Failure is ascribed to insolvency, rebellion, or invasion, but no system based on violence is sustainable; it is always the base cause of failure.

Experience hath shewn, that Mankind are more disposed to suffer, while Evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the Forms to which they are accustomed. So far the evils have been sufferable, however, tyranny-fueled rage builds to a point where a spark ignites a conflagration. That point may be closer than anyone thinks.

Covid tyranny has made it clear to the subjugated that the Deficient have a Design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, a design that will impoverish, immiserate, and further tyrannize. We are in the design’s collapse phase, followed by chaos, followed by the imposition of totalitarian order. No estimates of the total body count are available.

Collapse is coming as the Deficient egg it on. Although the full ramifications of chaos can’t be predicted, the financial and economic aspects loom large. Most financial assets are debt or equity, and most real assets are collateral for one or more loans. Nominal global debt is multiples of global GDP, and that doesn’t include unfunded pension and medical liabilities and financial derivatives. The unraveling has begun and most promises to pay aren’t going to be kept. Future production is mortgaged to past consumption, and the world will be one big foreclosure sale.

Full unraveling will leave billions impoverished and enraged. The Deficient are gambling that rage can be diverted from those responsible - themselves - and directed such that we beg for their totalitarian order. Skeptics, critics, and refuseniks will be eliminated. It’s a huge gamble, considering the Deficient have so publicly promoted their design. We know who they are and where they live.

One deficiency of the Deficient is real world acuity. Totalitarianism is an expensive proposition, what with all that monitoring, incarcerating, and executing. It eliminates many of the most productive people. When debt-collapsed markets wipe out much of what was reckoned wealth, from where do the resources for totalitarian order come? Other Deficient deficiencies are competence and productive ability. They are gambling that they and their artificially intelligent machines can replace the productive class and they’ll continue to live in splendor. Anyone with that much faith in artificial intelligence has never used Autocorrect.

Such gambles should be causing the Deficient sleepless nights, but do they even realize the danger? They like to blather about order from chaos. Order is rarely imposed on chaos - their plan - but it may well emerge from it. Some of the subjugated are going to realize that whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these Ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its Foundation on such Principles, and organizing its Powers in such Form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.

The order that will emerge from the coming chaos is that of organized resistance, guerrilla war, and rebellion, not the Deficients’ reset. There is little chance that present governments and political subdivisions will be sustained. When the rebels are at the gate and the Deficient realize that they and the few praetorians who haven’t deserted them are outmatched, they’ll do what the Deficient have always done under such circumstances - scatter like cockroaches in a dirty kitchen when the lights go on. Another Deficient deficiency is courage.

This may seem unlikely, but it’s far more likely than the fantasy in which elections and wise politicians lead governments to dramatically reduce their size, shed their powers, and restore a semblance of freedom. When has that ever happened?

"But what do we mean by the American Revolution? Do we mean the American War? The Revolution was effected before the War commenced. The Revolution was in the minds and hearts of the people.”

- John Adams, 1818

The revolution has been effected. The Deficient, clinging to their copies of The Great Reset, their woke praetorians, and their F-15s, feel it as creeping, nameless fear. The rebels already know in their minds and hearts - it is their Right, it is their Duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future Security. They’ll miss an historic opportunity if they replace old despotism with new. It’s time to give freedom - the system most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness - its chance."

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

Hat tip to The Burning Platform for this material.

"How It Really Is"

 

Good advice...

"Curious..."

"Curious how often you humans manage to

obtain that which you do not want."

- Mr. Spock

"Over The Past Week We Have Gotten Several Steps Closer To A Nuclear War With Russia"

"Over The Past Week We Have Gotten Several 

Steps Closer To A Nuclear War With Russia"

by Michael Snyder

"I am so horrified by what is going on in Ukraine right now. The world desperately needs peace in Ukraine, but instead both sides are going for the throat. The Russians and the western powers are both absolutely determined to win in Ukraine, and so now we are witnessing a very dangerous game of “chicken” that could ultimately lead to nuclear conflict. Western leaders seem quite sure that the Russians are bluffing and that there is no possibility that they would actually use nukes if backed into a corner. Meanwhile, Russian leaders seem to believe that there is a limit as to how far NATO powers will go to support Ukraine. But what if both sides are wrong?

A series of miscalculations led up to this war, and another miscalculation scuttled a peace agreement that the Russians were ready to agree to back in April…"Most Americans are unaware how close Russia and Ukraine came to ending the current war in April. Last March 27, Ukraine president Zelensky told his people “Our goal is obvious – peace and the restoration of normal life in our native state as soon as possible.” He was hinting at what went unsaid: Ukraine and Russia, brokered by NATO member Turkey, reached a tentative fifteen-point peace plan to end the month old war.

Key points were Russia withdraw from all Ukraine except for breakaway Donbas and Crimea. Ukraine would pass on future NATO membership, pledging neutrality between Russia and NATO. Donbas and Crimea would undergo political transition based on self-determination to be recognized by both combatants. Ukraine security would be guaranteed by neighboring countries but no foreign troops would enter Ukraine.

The Biden administration and the other western powers convinced Ukraine to reject the agreement. They wanted this war and they thought that they could win it. For months things looked quite grim. The Russians were steadily taking territory and the number of Ukrainian dead bodies just kept piling up. But now the Ukrainians have suddenly found a huge source of new manpower, and they have launched a stunning counter-offensive that has successfully taken a tremendous amount of territory that the Russians had previously captured…"The Ukraine military’s stunning offensive gained momentum Monday, reclaiming several more northeastern villages and forcing the retreat of overwhelmed Russian troops from the region.

A Russian-installed official in the Kharkiv region said Ukrainian forces outnumbered Russian troops by 8-to-1 and had broken through to the Russian border. Vitaly Ganchev told the state-owned Rossiya-24 television channel on Monday “the situation is becoming more difficult by the hour.”

After suffering such staggering losses over the course of the war, how could the Ukrainians suddenly find enough bodies to outnumber the Russians by 8 to 1 in that area of the front? Some Russian pundits are claiming that this new counter-offensive is being led by “Western mercenaries”…"The Rossiya-24 news channel on Monday interviewed Vitaly Ganchev, a Russian-appointed official in the Kharkiv region, who said that Russian troops in the province had been outnumbered “eight times over.” He also said, without providing evidence, that Ukrainian forces had been bolstered by “Western mercenaries”.

And right now social media is filled with videos of fighters that are involved in the counter-offensive that appear to have very strong American accents…"more and more videos of foreign fighters in the kharkov counteroffensive coming out. it seems that the reports that a significant amount of mercs were used as the tip of the spear there were mostly true pic.twitter.com/zjQMJc8sQV

- Russians With Attitude (@RWApodcast) September 12, 2022

From the very beginning of the war, there have always been some western fighters in Ukraine. But now there seems to be tens of thousands of them. Certain Russian sources have been alleging that special operations units from the U.S., the UK and other NATO powers are at the tip of the spear of this new counter-offensive. Of course western leaders would completely deny this. So the truth is that we don’t really know what is going on.

But what we do know is that Ukraine suddenly has large numbers of highly trained and highly competent soldiers that are giving the Russians all they can handle. If military units from western powers have been secretly deployed in Ukraine, that would represent a massive escalation. In response to the counter-offensive, the Russians have hit power plants all over Ukraine with cruise missiles…"A shocking new video is believed to show a massive explosion at a Ukrainian power plant after a Russian missile strike which plunged the region into darkness. The video shows the blast at Kharkiv’s CHPP-5 power plant, which is followed by a devastating shockwave that ripples out in all directions, rattling the house the person filming is standing in."

Other videos show strikes on several power stations, which collectively shut off power to almost one third of Ukraine. Up to this point in the war, the Russians had avoided going after critical civilian infrastructure such as power plants. These strikes also represent a massive escalation.

Following the attacks on Ukrainian power plants, all of a sudden Azerbaijan started shelling Armenia…"Large clashes broke out between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces along the border between the two countries on Monday night, according to Azerbaijani and Armenian Defense Ministries. Azerbaijani artillery and UAVs reportedly targeted sites in Vardenis, Goris, Sotk and Jermuk in eastern Armenia."

I am convinced that Azerbaijan was encouraged by the Biden administration to do this. Russia is committed to protecting Armenia, and if this conflict were to flare up it would force the Russians to divert resources from Ukraine.

🔥🇦🇿🇦🇲Azerbaijani resources publish footage of a missile salvo on the territory of Armenia. It is not yet possible to confirm the authenticity of the video." 

pic.twitter.com/8awBHPnrJ7

— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZmilitary1) September 12, 2022

Both sides just keep escalating matters, thinking that the other side will eventually be forced to back down. But what if that never happens?

Numerous top U.S. politicians have publicly stated that the only acceptable end to the war is the full liberation of Ukraine. And Russian politicians are saying similar things. For example, Dmitry Medvedev just said that “the total surrender of the Kyiv regime on Russia’s terms” is the goal…"A former president and prime minister of Russia on Monday dismissed reports of Ukrainian gains and warned the Kremlin might ultimately demand “total surrender” of the Kyiv regime. Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy head of his nation’s Security Council, alluded to Zelenskyy’s refusal to conduct a dialogue “with those who put forward ultimatums.” “The current ‘ultimatums’ are a warm-up for kids, a preview of demands to be made in the future,” Medvedev said. “He (Zelenskyy) knows them: the total surrender of the Kyiv regime on Russia’s terms.”

Why does it have to be this way? Both sides are determined to go down a road that could very easily lead to nuclear war. This is madness. Why can’t both sides sit down and come up with a peace agreement that is similar to what was almost agreed to back in April? Countless lives would be spared and it would be a tremendous boon to the global economy.

Unfortunately, such a peace agreement is not going to happen. Both sides are now completely obsessed with victory, and so we continue to march ever closer to a cataclysmic nuclear showdown."

- https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/

"Banks are Holding Deposits and Not Releasing the Funds"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly 9/13/22:

"Banks are Holding Deposits and Not Releasing the Funds"

"The banking problem just continues to escalate. Banks are withholding deposits from their customers. They’re adding extended hold times and then not releasing the funds to their customers."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Gregory Mannarino, “Alert! MMRI Hits All Time High!; Inflation Rages, Stocks Poised To Crater”

Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/13/22:

“Alert! MMRI Hits All Time High!;

 Inflation Rages, Stocks Poised To Crater”

- https://traderschoice.net/

Link To The MMRI (Mannarino Market Risk Indicator),

 FREE Downloads And More! Click Here 

○

Update at Market Close, 4 PM EST 9/13/22:

"35 Things We Know About The Coming Food Shortages"

Full screen recommended.

"35 Things We Know About The Coming Food Shortages"

by Epic Economist

"We’re on the cusp of a catastrophic food crisis, and massive food shortages are emerging all over the world. Things are going to get far worse than what they’re telling us. Over the past few months, we have been reporting a series of facts and stats that show that global food production is set to collapse to perilously low levels this year. In other words, the food that isn’t being grown in 2022 won’t be available at the stores in 2023. Unfortunately, most people out there don’t seem to realize the real extent of the food shortages that we’re about to experience. And it’s not only in the US.

Earlier this year, UN Secretary-General António Guterres publicly stated that he believes that it is likely that there will be “multiple famines” in 2023. Similarly, UN General Assembly President Abdulla Shahid noted that the organization’s ability to respond to these issues has been compromised. “Frankly, we were already falling short of meeting our food-security targets, prior to 2020. However, the situation is now critical,” he said. “The shocks of multiple global crises have weakened our institutions, our economies, and challenged our ability to effectively respond.”

Unfortunately, as global food supplies continue to shrink, the risk of civil unrest keeps on rising. In many places, this is already happening. A new analysis released by Verisk Maplecroft, a UK-based risk consulting and intelligence firm highlighted that “the risk of civil unrest has surged this year in more than half of the world’s countries, signaling a coming period of heightened global instability fueled by inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and shortages of essentials”. Researchers noted that 101 of the 198 countries tracked on its Civil Unrest Index saw an increase in their risk of civil unrest between the second and third quarters of this year.

In recent weeks, we have seen major demonstrations erupting in cities all over the world. But conditions are not as extreme as they are going to get in the coming months. It’s safe to say that when it finally becomes undeniably clear that there simply will not be enough food for everyone in 2023, we’re going to see a lot more chaos emerging all across the planet.

Many populations will deeply suffer as we enter the later stages of 2022. In 2023, there will be famines and social uprisings all over the globe. This is not a drill. A critical global food crisis has already begun, and we would like to encourage you to get prepared for what is ahead while you still can. We’re on the verge of an absolutely unprecedented worldwide food crisis that could start as soon as next year. But still, the vast majority of the population doesn’t seem very alarmed about this. Perhaps they just don’t understand what’s truly going on, so we would like to encourage you to get this warning out by sharing this list with as many people as you possibly can. As you’re about to discover, we now have a large amount of data indicating that it is impossible to deny what is coming."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com/

"Warning! People Have No Idea What's Happening As FED Slams The Brakes; Credit Cards Are Loan Sharks"

Jeremiah Babe, 9/12/22:

"Warning! People Have No Idea What's Happening As 

FED Slams The Brakes; Credit Cards Are Loan Sharks"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Musical Interlude: Gnomusy, "Dolmen Ridge"

Gnomusy, "Dolmen Ridge"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"No, hamburgers are not this big. What is pictured is a sharp telescopic view of a magnificent edge-on spiral galaxy NGC 3628, a puffy galactic disk divided by dark dust lanes. Of course, this deep galactic portrait puts some astronomers in mind of its popular moniker, The Hamburger Galaxy.

The tantalizing island universe is about 100,000 light-years across and 35 million light-years away in the northern springtime constellation Leo. NGC 3628 shares its neighborhood in the local Universe with two other large spirals M65 and M66 in a grouping otherwise known as the Leo Triplet. Gravitational interactions with its cosmic neighbors are likely responsible for the extended flare and warp of this spiral's disk.”

- https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap170503.html

"One Summer Night..."

"One summer night, out on a flat headland, all but surrounded by the waters of the bay, the horizons were remote and distant rims on the edge of space. Millions of stars blazed in darkness, and on the far shore a few lights burned in cottages. Otherwise there was no reminder of human life. My companion and I were alone with the stars: the misty river of the Milky Way flowing across the sky, the patterns of the constellations standing out bright and clear, a blazing planet low on the horizon. It occurred to me that if this were a sight that could be seen only once in a century, this little headland would be thronged with spectators. But it can be seen many scores of nights in any year, and so the lights burned in the cottages and the inhabitants probably gave not a thought to the beauty overhead; and because they could see it almost any night, perhaps they never will."

- Rachel Carson

Canadian Prepper, "Warning: Emergency In Russia - General Mobilization Is Coming!"

Canadian Prepper, 9/12/22:

"Warning: Emergency In Russia - 

General Mobilization Is Coming!"

"No one is analyzing the situation from all angles,

 let's attempt to do that."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

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Related:

Full screen recommended.

Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 9/12/22:

"Scott Ritter - Ukraine Sept. Counter Offensive"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

The Daily "Near You?"

Ellijay, Georgia, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

“True Story: Streets of Philadelphia"

Full screen recommended, if you can stomach it.

kimgary, 9/10/22:

“True Story: Streets of Philadelphia"

"Violent crime and drug abuse in Philadelphia as a whole is a major problem. The city’s violent crime rate is higher than the national average and other similarly sized metropolitan areas. Also alarming is Philadelphia’s drug overdose rate. The number of drug overdose deaths in the city increased by 50% from 2013 to 2015, with more than twice as many deaths from drug overdoses as deaths from homicides in 2015. A big part of Philadelphia’s problems stem from the crime rate and drug abuse in Kensington.

Because of the high number of drugs in Kensington, the neighborhood has a drug crime rate of 3.57, the third-highest rate by neighborhood in Philadelphia. Like a lot of the country, a big part of this issue is a result of the opioid epidemic. Opioid abuse has skyrocketed over the last two decades in the United States and Philadelphia is no exception. Along with having a high rate of drug overdose deaths, 80% percent of Philadelphia’s overdose deaths involved opioids and Kensington is a big contributor to this number. This Philly neighborhood is purportedly the largest open-air narcotics market for heroin on the East Coast with many neighboring residents flocking to the area for heroin and other opioids. With such a high number of drugs in Kensington, many state and local officials have zoned in on this area to try and tackle Philadelphia’s problem."

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"The 3200 block of Shelbourne St in Kensington is CRAZY.  Dealers/lookouts on both ends of the block. You can hear the lookout shout to announce our presence."

- https://twitter.com/

○

Full screen recommended.

Bruce Springsteen, "Streets of Philadelphia"

"America is the Empire of Debt"

"America is the Empire of Debt"

"This week on TWS: Bill Bonner advances his “Modest Theory of Civilization.” Funny story: When Bill and I wrote our first book together, "Financial Reckoning Day," we were sitting across from each other in the office on Rue de la Verrerie in Paris. We’re both old school writers; passing physical manuscripts back and forth was easy. I would hit ‘print’... hand Bill the pages… he’d get out his red pen… Mark it up… hand it back to me.

When we wrote our second book, "Empire of Debt" … ooh la la. Things changed. Bill was still living in Paris. I had relocated to Baltimore. Bill was also trying to manage a business in London. And had just bought several apartments in Buenos Aires. Instead of hitting print and handing the pages to him. I hit print… Then I had to triangulate to figure out where in the world Bill was going to be next so I could Fedex him the pages. If I knew he was going to be in Buenos Aires on such and such a date, I could send the pages there. And wait until I got his red ink scratches back.

Thing is, Bill has his own way of doing things. He would write things like “Move A to page 42.” With a circle around a couple of paragraphs. So… I’d grab the paragraphs circled, physically cutting the paper sometimes, and look on page 42. On page 42, it might say something like “insert C1 here.”

No invectives. Just a bit of confusion. I like word puzzles, anyway. Lather, rinse, repeat. Triangulate. Solve mystery edits. Write new stuff. You get the picture. We were six months late on our deadline using this method.

Here’s the best part of the story. On one draft, Bill drew a red line through roughly thirty pages of material I had written on the U.S. Dollar. To me, a red line through my work meant “cut this material.” Which, at the time, was a reasonable assumption given the conventions of copyediting those days. I “cut” the pages, but didn’t delete them. Kept them in my swipe file. Then turned them into the book that would become "The Demise of the Dollar." This book – my third – was published by John Wiley & Sons in a few months… ahead of the deadline… for a book the publisher didn’t expect.

The punchline: When Bill read the final manuscript of "Empire of Debt" he asked me, “Where’s that whole section I highlighted on the U.S. dollar?” “Highlighted?! Oops. I thought you wanted me to delete it!” Sometimes mistakes become the most unpredictable blessings.

Bill and I have both since matured enough to use electronic devices to do our writing. E-mail, it turns out, is cheaper, faster and more efficient than paper, ink and Fedex. Who'da thunk? And get this: We even conducted this interview over Zoom! A long way from handing hard copy to one another face to face."

"Follow your bliss,"

- https://www.youtube.com/

"How It Really Is"

 

"Relax..."

"Relax. They're not going to kill us. They're going to

TRY and kill us. And that is a very different thing."

 - Steve Voake, "The Dreamwalker's Child"

Jim Kunstler, "Is War What You Asked For?"

"Is War What You Asked For?"

Beware: Ukraine’s touted Kharkov offensive is probably 

not what the US news media cracks it up to be….

by Jim Kunstler

"Extinction is the rule. Survival is the exception." 

- Carl Sagan

"The Russians called their move into Ukraine last February a “special military operation” for a reason. The description was precise. It was not a “war” prosecuted on the people of Ukraine. Russia could have completely disabled the Zelensky regime in an afternoon with air power, but they did not want to smash up the country’s vital infrastructure and foreclose the peoples’ future. The operation was designed to expel Ukrainian military forces from their forward dug-in positions along the Donbas frontier, where they had been shelling, harassing, and killing the Russian-speaking population for eight years - ever since the 2014 CIA-backed Maidan “color Revolution” brought Ukraine under American control.

The precipitating event of the operation begun last winter was the renewed threat to bring Ukraine into NATO, for the purpose of putting bases on Russia’s border. Russia would not tolerate that any more than America would tolerate Russian bases planted across our border with Mexico. The special operation was mounted to reestablish firm boundaries, both geographically and in geopolitical psychology, for an adversary, the West, who displayed an increasingly psychotic drive to smash all boundaries that make civilized life possible, even in their own countries.

Since then, the US has poured money into Ukraine at the rate of about $10-billion a month for the purpose of prolonging the struggle in Ukraine. We’re doing this at a moment in history when the US faces grave financial breakdown, along with the countries of the European Union and the UK. Nothing about our involvement in Ukraine is in the interest of the American people. Our foreign policy establishment has shown a blind animus toward Russia for no apparent good reason.

At this point reasonable people might conclude that it is for a bad reason. Increasingly it looks like a desperate diversion from the technocrat coup perpetrated by a supranational cabal emanating out of Davos, as led by the megalomaniacs at the World Economic Forum (WEF). The coupsters also happen to be intriguing behind America’s Democratic Party and the White House regime of the obvious tool, “Joe Biden.”

To digress from Ukraine for a moment, let’s consider the perilous condition of “Joe Biden’s” regime just now. All the “narratives” - the miasma of lies the regime has generated in its campaign to wreck our country - are falling apart. Much of this centers on the criminal misbehavior of the FBI, the regime’s clean-up crew, which has lost control of the clean-up. If the conservative opposition seizes majority control of the US House of Representatives on November 8, all the US players in this coup will be called to testify.

This includes the perpetrators of RussiaGate (of which the Ukraine mess is a continuation); the perps of the Covid-19 bioweapon op that will end up killing more Americans from the “vaccines” and the economic blowback of lockdowns as died from the virus itself; the backstage perps of the censoring and cancellation initiative run through the news and social media; the perps who arranged the ballot shenanigans in the 2020 elections; the perps who supported the Antifa and BLM riots of that same year; the perps behind the Mar-a-Lago raid; and, most threatening of all to the regime, the perps who concealed the Hunter Biden laptop evidence of international bribery and treason committed by the current President of the United States. He knows it, he can sniff the danger, as do the rogues and degenerates behind him. Hence, his recent mendacious fulminations against “MAGA Republicans [being] a threat to our democracy” and his ramped-up FBI police-state antics against Donald Trump and his associates. “Joe Biden” must sense that he is going down.

The New York Times today is ballyhooing the Ukraine military’s “lightning advance” east of Kharkov. I’d argue that what The Times wants you to see is not exactly what is happening. Rather the Russians appear to have made an orderly, tactical retreat from the outskirts of Kharkov, inducing the NATO-trained Ukraine forces eastward across the Siverskyi Donets River and out into the flat, open country where they will be cut off, cauldroned, and slaughtered. Everything that NATO and the US have done in this conflict has been a stupid move. Why should this one be an exception?

At the same time, Russia has hit a number of power generation plants around Ukraine, leaving many Ukrainians without lights, hot water, communications - in short, what’s needed to remain civilized. This was exactly what Russia had hoped to avoid the past eight months, but the obdurate pathological idiocy of our country’s leaders has forced Russia to send a harsher message to provoke some rational thought here about ending this conflict. There is even chatter on the web that Russia is about to declare that the special military operation is now a war, with all that implies about targets.

The US may be crazed beyond redemption, but the people of the NATO member countries might have had a clarifying experience lately watching their governments barter away the natural gas they desperately need to run industry and heat their homes this winter - in the foolish gesture of jumping on America’s sanctions bandwagon. Will Germany, France, Italy, and the rest now leap into a war against Russia on the plains of Ukraine in winter? I think they will sooner overthrow their own WEF-directed governments. This appears to be just what has happened in Sweden’s election on Sunday where a bloc of center-right parties has ousted the left government led by Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson.

The question for now is this: Will the US jump stupidly into World War Three over Ukraine? If not, how much does Russia have to disrupt life in the rest of Ukraine outside the Donbas to drive the US and NATO into serious peace talks? It better happen soon because otherwise the West will be completely preoccupied with the collapse of its financial markets, currencies, and economies - and probably before the November elections here."

- https://kunstler.com/

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Before you chant slogans and wave your cute little Ukrainian flags while knowing nothing about the true situation, you really should get the facts and not just accept all the lies and propaganda they're feeding us. Know where your $65 billion in "military assistance" is really going? It's not the Ukrainian troops. Really want to fight the Russians? You'd better factor this into the decision if you do... Reposted from 4/18/22:

Full screen recommended.

Canadian Prepper, PM 4/18/22:

"Oh S#!%... "SATAN" Nuclear Missile is Being Prepared"

"We are so close to the brink... Russia is reported to have conducted a test launch of the RS-28 (15A28) Sarmat ICBM, which will replace the Soviet R-36M2 Voyevoda missile. This is the worlds largest nuclear missile that includes 15 warheads each with high nuclear yield. According to Russian information, on April 24, a Sarmat ICBM test launch took place from Plesetsk in the Arkhangelsk region with the final destination being the Kura training field in Kamchatka. It is worth noting that this information was leaked to the Russian media immediately after the loss of the Moskva cruiser. The Russians note that there is no reason to follow the example of the US, which canceled the test launches of Minuteman III twice in March and April of this year under the fictitious pretext of "non-escalation" of the situation. Launch is only necessary for a complete re-equipment."

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RS-28 Sarmat

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS-28_Sarmat

15 warheads per missile, 11,000 mile range, 

hypersonic speed of 15,880 mph.

Do we really want to do this?

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○

This from Russian state TV...

Full screen recommended.

It would be wise to hear this, but they won't...

Meanwhile, 9/12/22:

"Ukraine Retakes Towns Within 50km Of Russian 

Border Amid Rumors Putin To Issue Full Declaration Of War"

"Germany's Arms Pipeline To Ukraine Has 

'Crossed Red Line', Kremlin Says"

"Ukraine's 2nd Largest City Plunged Into Total 

Darkness As Russia Strikes Key Infrastructure"

"Situation Update, Sep 12, 2022 - Ukraine's cities go DARK;

 Russia poised to declare WORLD WAR Against NATO"

"Elon Musk Issues a Dire Warning About the Economy - Do You Care?"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly, 9/12/22:

"Elon Musk Issues a Dire Warning 

About the Economy - Do You Care?"

"Do you take it seriously when a business professional tells you that things are going to go up or going to go down? The latest is Elon Musk who has told us that we are headed for a devastating recession if interest rates are raised at all."

Comments here:

 - https://www.youtube.com/

Bill Bonner, "Death by Government"

"Death by Government"

Millions await the fallout from 

The State's grandest experiment of all...

by Bill Bonner

Youghal, Ireland - "For all the hand-wringing about Europe’s energy and economic crisis… Paris seemed calm last week. The restaurants were full. People walked around as usual. It felt like a city that had been taken over by the lizard people, all pretending to be human. Everything looked normal. People acted normal. But, as they say on TV, winter is coming.

Already, on our trip back to Ireland, crossing the English Channel and then the Irish Sea, the clouds came in from the North Atlantic. The sea was not as tranquil or as blue as it had been a month ago. Instead, it was like an old man, starting to turn gray and grumble; his best days are behind him. Fastened to a dying animal… he must bear the bad weather ahead. After all, the autumnal equinox is only 3 days away.

As to the ‘scientific’ claims of the ‘green’ lobby, we are agnostic. But suspicious. Every time the elite sets its sights on a Great Campaign, it enlists ‘science,’ religion and the press… and the result is almost always a catastrophic scam. We have no reason to believe this time will be different.

We keep an open mind. But right now, the Old World seems to be leading the way into the new disaster. Eager to cut off fossil fuels in order to save the planet… and keen on supporting the Ukraine in order to save democracy… the frogs, krauts, and wops have cut off their own fuel supplies. Ahead: gloomy months of cold contemplation and regret. Bloomberg: “The current crisis is leaving businesses facing a stark choice,” [from a survey of British manufacturers]… “Cut production or shut up shop altogether if help does not come soon.”

Reuters: "Germany faces the “bitter reality” that Russia will not restore gas supplies to the country, the German economy minister said on Monday, ahead of planned halt by state energy giant Gazprom of exports to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. “It won’t come back … It is the bitter reality,” Robert Habeck said in a panel with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen."

But wait. Maybe it doesn’t matter.

Another Grand Experiment: So what if the Dutch have to turn down their thermostats? Who cares if you can no longer sit under a warm gas radiator on a sidewalk in Paris? And really, wouldn’t we all be better off if the smokestacks smoked a little less?

We don’t know. It’s another grand experiment… a “teachable moment” in human history. But are humans really teachable? Aren’t the TV shows of 2022 full of the same wickedness and errors committed 2,000 years ago? Are our judges today wiser than Solomon? Are our lovers more artful than Cleopatra or more faithless than Delilah? Do our deciders make better decisions than Pontius Pilate?

But this is something new. Never before did a people deliberately strangle the goose that laid the basis of its whole economy. That is the “Great Transition,” from fossil fuel to un-fossilized fuel, that western leaders believe will save us from the apocalypse. What the ‘transition’ will mean in the long run, we don’t know. But in the short run, the damned bird is likely to be missed. From Zerohedge: "European Crop Yields Collapse Amid Worst Drought In 500 Years"

"Besides the news of record high electricity prices, a troubling new crop failure report about Europe's upcoming harvest was published Monday. The bloc's Monitoring Agricultural Resources forecasted corn yields could drop by nearly a fifth due to a devastating drought, according to Bloomberg.

Before we dive into the crop report, Europe's centuries-old 'hunger stones' were recently revealed in the Elbe River, which runs from the mountains of Czechia through Germany to the North Sea. The stones date back to a drought in 1616 and read: "Wenn du mich siehst, dann weine." That translates to "if you see me, then weep." The warning on the stones appears correct because the new crop report forecasts corn yields will drop 16% below the five-year average. That compares with a July forecast of an 8% decline.

Supermarket prices for meat in the EU jumped 12% in July versus a year earlier. Milk, cheese, and eggs are also skyrocketing at record rates. This leaves us with the idea that inflation in Europe will remain sticky, as explained by Germany's central bank chief Joachim Nagel: "The issue of inflation will not go away in 2023."

270 Million Dead: A drought is an act of nature. Heat waves, storms, plagues and pestilence – they still happen too, recurring episodically. In the past, these natural disasters were much more deadly than they are today. The Industrial Revolution – powered by fossil fuels – gave humans a much larger margin for error. If crops failed in one area, prices rose, drawing in produce from other areas. If a hurricane threatened the coast, people had plenty of warning; they could stock up on toilet paper… put plywood over their windows (using portable electric drills)… or pack up the car and head for higher ground.

We all take precautions to protect ourselves. We store up grain for the “seven lean years” that might come. We save money to give ourselves a ‘margin of error.’ We put on a pair of suspenders, just in case the belt fails. Since the beginning of the 20th century, thanks to the widespread use of fossil fuel, the death toll from natural disasters has been relatively low. Now, it is the unnatural disasters, the ‘errors’ made by the ‘deciders,’ we have to worry about.

R.J. Rummel wrote a marvelous book in which he spelled it out. WWI… revolution… purges… pogroms… intentional starvation… ubermensch… gulags… concentration camps… the killing fields of Cambodia… Mao’s famine – “Death by Government,” says Mr. Rummel, cost the world 270 million lives in the last century. How many will die in the 21st century? We wait to find out."

- bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com

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For the five-volumes of "Understanding Conflict and War,"

by R.J. Rummel, read online here:

- https://www.hawaii.edu/

Gregory Mannarino, "Expect Industry Wide Bailouts And Much Higher Inflation"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 9/12/22:

"Expect Industry Wide Bailouts And Much Higher Inflation"

- https://traderschoice.net

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/