"WWJ(P)D?"

"WWJ(P)D?"

The ugly truth behind Friday's jobs report, interpreting 

mainstream media and figuring out what would Jerome do?

by Joel Bowman

“We used to have Bob Hope, Steve Jobs and Johnny Cash… now we have no hope, no jobs and no cash! Let’s just hope Kevin Bacon doesn’t die soon!”

~ Popular Internet joke

Buenos Aires, Argentina - "Jobs up... stocks down. That was the take-away from yesterday’s headlines. After all the experts had tortured their numbers, the consensus predicted 258,000 new jobs were added in July. Then, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (which, without the Labor, is really just BS), announced that, in fact, 528,000 were added.

Stocks promptly sank on the news. Here’s CNBC: "Stocks wavered Friday in a volatile trading session after the July jobs report was much better than expected, as investors assessed what a strong labor market would mean for the Federal Reserve’s rate tightening campaign."

Both the S&P500 and the Nasdaq were down for the session. The Dow was up a smidge. Wait... what gives? Aren’t jobs good for the economy? Isn’t a strong economy good for the companies that operate within it? Isn’t 528k a bigger number than 258k? Let’s back up a moment, to get a clearer picture...

Truth vs. Power: First of all, the mainstream media – at this point little more than a virtual bullhorn for establishment opinion – has become expert at burying the real story. Once a proud and noble profession, which aimed to “speak truth to power,” to “afflict the comfortable and comfort the afflicted,” the fourth estate has largely deteriorated into muckraking partisanship, where everything is viewed through the warped looking glass of Team Red vs. Team Blue politics. Joe Biden could announce tomorrow that 2+2=4 and half the country would be up in arms. Same for Trump, Obama, Bush, et al. Nothing new there. Every aspect of modern life has come to be presented through the lens of one or another political party... even (and sometimes especially) things that seemingly have nothing to do with politics.

Curious about the origins of the virus that (was used to) shut the world down for two years? That’s political. Wonder about the efficacy of masks and/or vaccines? That’s political, too. Confused as to the accepted definition of a recession... and whether or not the country is actually in one? Again, such a consideration is not merely a matter of interpreting the relevant economic data, but a question of political allegiance. (More on “mere semantics” in tomorrow’s Sunday Session...)

An earnest reader, looking for “just the facts, ma’am,” has a long way to go to get to the truth, if he can even find it at all. Instead he gets “narratives,” “talking points” and “positions.” Modern day mythology, in other words, concocted by insiders to coral outsiders into manageable formation.

WWJ(P)D? As if that weren’t enough, investors must also take into account the likely action of the biggest para-market actor of them all, the mighty Federal Reserve Central Banking System of the United States of America. Every inflation print... every GDP read... every fleck and mote of economic data that comes down the pike must be interpreted in light of the all-important question, “What Would Jerome (Powell) Do?” (WWJ(P)D?)

As Dan Denning explained in yesterday’s note to Bonner Private Research members... “Good news is bad news when it comes to monetary policy,” he wrote. “If the economy is stronger and wages are going up (BLS reports average hourly wage growth of 5.9%) then the economy can handle higher interest rates and Quantitative Tightening from the Fed, right? Higher rates and lower liquidity are bearish for stocks.”

But might investors have missed the story for the headline, the truth behind the myth? What if wages were not growing... but actually sinking? What if the unemployment rate was not 3.5%... but 9.6%? What if all were not as it appears?

Digging deeper into the actual numbers, Dan helps readers get to the bottom of the story. Here’s a choice snippet from his note from yesterday..."The Bureau said the US economy gained 528,000 jobs in July. Consensus forecasts were for a gain of 258,000. By all accounts it was an incredible result. And I do mean in-credible.

Here’s the bad news. The real unemployment rate is 9.6%. Nearly 100 million Americans are out of the workforce. Much of the gain in jobs came from people taking a SECOND or part-time job. The labor force participation rate is at the same level it was in March 1977. And with official inflation at 9.1%, wages are still getting crushed by cost-of-living increases for ordinary Americans. Don’t take it from me. The following facts come straight from the BLS report (emphasis added is mine):

"The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.9 million in July, little changed over the month. This measure is above its February 2020 level of 5.0 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons increased by 303,000 to 3.9 million in July. This rise reflected an increase in the number of persons whose hours were cut due to slack work or business conditions. The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons is below its February 2020 level of 4.4 million. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.

The labor force participation rate, at 62.1 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.0 percent, were little changed over the month. Both measures remain below their February 2020 values (63.4 percent and 61.2 percent, respectively)."

From a high-level point of view, it’s great news that the 22 million jobs lost between March and April of 2020 are back. It’s also great news that the official unemployment rate is the lowest since 1969. But remember, the government response to the pandemic created an economic calamity for Middle Class Americans. The market economy has repaired some of that damage. But the pandemic did not ruin the job market. Government policy did. You have to read beyond the headline figures to get the full picture about the state of the labor market in the United States.

It’s not political, dear reader. Them’s just the numbers. But you do have to take the time to find them. Reading behind the headlines is a big part of what we try to do at Bonner Private Research. Whether you’re investing your money or your time (or both!), it pays to take a step back, question accepted wisdom and reevaluate what you thought you knew... “Come to think of it, how do I know what I think I know... other than that’s what I’ve been told?” We won’t always get it right, of course... but, as our founder Bill Bonner says, “Sometimes right. Sometimes Wrong. Always in doubt.”

- https://bonnerprivateresearch.substack.com/

The Daily "Near You?"

Frankfort, Illinois, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"A Long March..."

"The life of Man is a long march through the night, surrounded by invisible foes, tortured by weariness and pain, towards a goal that few can hope to reach, and where none may tarry long. One by one, as they march, our comrades vanish from our sight, seized by the silent orders of omnipotent Death. Very brief is the time in which we can help them, in which their happiness or misery is decided. Be it ours to shed sunshine on their path, to lighten their sorrows by the balm of sympathy, to give them the pure joy of a never-tiring affection, to strengthen failing courage, to instill faith in times of despair."

- Bertrand Russell

"The Worst Of Them All..."

"Science may have found a cure for most evils,

but it has found no remedy for the worst of them all -

the apathy of human beings."

- Author Unknown

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"I am an invisible man. No, I am not a spook like those who haunted Edgar Allan Poe; nor am I one of your Hollywood-movie ectoplasms. I am a man of substance, of flesh and bone, fiber and liquids - and I might even be said to possess a mind. I am invisible, understand, simply because people refuse to see me. Like the bodiless heads you see sometimes in circus sideshows, it is as though I have been surrounded by mirrors of hard, distorting glass.  When they approach me they see only my surroundings, themselves, or figments of their imagination - indeed, everything and anything except me."

- Ralph Ellison, "Prologue to Invisible Man"

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Full screen recommended.

Phil Collins, "Another Day In Paradise"

"How It Really Is"

 

"One Of The Most Tragic Things That I Have Read In A Long Time"

"One Of The Most Tragic Things 

That I Have Read In A Long Time"

by Michael Snyder

"Things have never been harder for America’s farmers and ranchers than they are right now. Their relentless hard work keeps us fed, but now many of them are being financially ruined by forces beyond their control. Prices for fertilizer, farm equipment and diesel fuel have spiraled to absolutely absurd heights, and meanwhile extremely bizarre weather patterns are making it almost impossible to operate successfully in many parts of the nation. A lot of farmers and ranchers have already gone out of business, and many more will go out of business in the months ahead unless some sort of a miracle happens.

Back in 1900, there were approximately 5.7 million family farms in the United States, but at that time the total population of the country was just 76 million. Today, there are only about 2.2 million family farms in the United States, but the total population of the country has grown to 329 million.

Agriculture is slowly but surely being consolidated, and the big fish have far more power than the little fish do. It has gotten to a point where it has become nearly impossible for many small farmers and ranchers to survive. To illustrate this, I would like to share something that a farmer named Sheila Payne Blackburn recently posted on Facebook…

I am the last one left on our farm and ranch here in central Texas. It has been in our family and in our blood for over 150 years. I was raised to never back down, never give up, get back in the saddle, cowgirls don’t cry, pull yourself up by your bootstraps, hang tough, and every other cowboy expression you can think of.

I have watched my great grandparents, grandparents and my parents die young. Their bodies run down and weak, their minds overwhelmed with stress, and their bank accounts empty. They gave everything they had for our way of life. I have survived drought, floods, excessive heat, -4 degree winters, broncs, bulls that want to kill you, and death of beloved livestock.

But today – today, I think I’m finally broken. Today my body, heart, spirit, and strength are gone. When my dad left this world, he left me holding the bag. He didn’t want to! But he did. Massive debt, tractors that won’t run, old broken down equipment, pickups that barely make it through a pasture. But he also left me the land that I love, the cattle, my heritage, my dream, my knowledge, and passion. But I feel I can’t go up from here.

Our government wants to destroy us. I can’t buy another 20 year old tractor at $120,000 for something that will not even probably make it a week. I can’t afford the diesel to fill up that tractor for $600 to just have to do it again tomorrow.

I can’t afford the fertilizer, the seed, the oil, the grease, the parts. Why should I spend $700 an acre to plow, plant, fertilize, weed kill? A grand total of $140,000. To only lose it in a drought. And really never make that money back! Hell my calves will only bring $800 to $900 a piece. But that same whole beef will cost the consumer $5,000 at the grocery store.

Today my pride means nothing to me anymore! Today I want to live to see my grandchildren grow older! Today I am tired of the heat, the wind, the drought! Today I know that it is only me, and no one will probably take over! Today I wonder what I’m fighting for! Today I am weak. Today I think I am through.

I know I am not the only one that feels this way anymore! Say a prayer for your farmers. Some of us are barely hanging on."

That is truly one of the most tragic things that I have read in a long time. Small farmers and small ranchers are the backbone of this country, and without them we don’t eat. Unfortunately, hardly anyone seems to notice that more of them are going under with each passing day.

Many Americans simply do not care about the plight of our farmers and ranchers right now, but they will definitely start to care when the price of beef doubles or even triples. The following was recently posted on Facebook by a rancher named Brad Allison…"$125 a roll, crap is getting real. The cattlemen doesn’t have a chance. Lick tubs almost $140 a tub, cubes close to $14 a bag. We are getting priced out of existence… Pray for your ranchers to be able to hang in there. Meat prices at the grocery is not their fault, it’s above their head, they surely are not making the profit. 10,000 head of cattle sold in three counties here in the last three weeks from cattlemen drowning. Middle age cattle going to slaughter because we can’t afford to feed them."

This is a very serious national crisis, but most Americans don’t realize it yet. But once these cost increases start showing up at the grocery store in 2023, everyone will finally realize what we are facing. For decades, we have been able to take our farmers and our ranchers for granted. Now everything is changing, and a trip to the grocery store will soon be far more painful.

- https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/

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Yeah, "most Americans don’t realize it yet." And don't care, and deliberately won't, until, in horror, they realize what's happening as an unimaginable new reality viciously slaps that smug smile off their faces. Look around, think it's getting bad now? Well, "you ain't seen nuthin' yet." But you, and all of us, will...

- CP

"Shopping Trip To Kroger Marketplace! Prices Are Crazy!"

Full screen recommended.

Adventures with Danno, 8/6/22:

"Shopping Trip To Kroger Marketplace! Prices Are Crazy!"

"In today's vlog we are at Kroger, and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

Gregory Mannarino, "Yield Curve Is The Most Inverted Since The Dot-Com Bubble/Meltdown"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 8/5/22:

"Yield Curve Is The Most Inverted Since

 The Dot-Com Bubble/Meltdown"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

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Related:

"The World Is Collapsing Around Us… 

The Crowd Is No Longer Hedged"

"Success, Fight Club, Strippers and Socialists"

"Success, Fight Club, Strippers and Socialists"

by John Wilder

"I had a conversation with a friend today. Oh, sure, I hear you say, what would an iconoclastic iron-jawed individualist with a body odor redolent of medium rare ribeye (with just a hint of pepper) like John Wilder need with a friend? I guess we all have our little weaknesses. And dogs follow me. Because I smell like steak.

In this particular case as with most of my friends, I’ve known this friend for years. I’ve known most of my close friends longer than The Boy has been alive, and he’s in college now. It’s nice. If a day, a week, a month or a year goes by, so what? We can still restart the conversation where we left off. It’s as comfortable as watching a movie you’ve seen a dozen times.

I’ll make the observation that the only place where the character of people change is in a movie – almost all of my close friends have the same sense of humor and the same sense of values that they had when our friendships were forming. Absent a significant emotional event, people are a constant. And I like that.

There is a corresponding trust that comes with being a close friend – honesty. That’s why when talking with my friend, I really enjoyed the chance to be honest. Honesty is difficult because it requires that trust, because really honest criticism is hard to take, even when it comes from a friend. Or a co-worker. Or a relative. Or someone you just met. Or your UPS® delivery guy. Oh, wait. Most people don’t like honest. But my friends do.

This particular friend is really in a good position in life, which seems to be a common pattern with my friends. He has a spouse that makes more money than he does, and, in general, the household probably brings in enough cash each month so that Nigerian princes send emails to them asking for money. They’re wealthy enough that they donate to the homeless. This appears to be a more socially acceptable donation strategy than my “donation to the topless,” scheme.

But lest ye want to class my friend as the evil, selfish, wealthy type, he’s not. The family has a huge number of kids, and it’s a close family. My friend is constantly taking time off to go to athletic events, and when we catch up, I can sense that the relationship he has with his kids isn’t a surface relationship – it’s genuine and deep. I can tell, because I know people who understand genuine relationships, who listen to both sides of a family argument – my neighbors.

And yet... despite the wealth, despite the great family, my friend feels that there’s something missing. He is as high as he wants to go in the company he works at – any higher and the travel demands would pull him away from family. He’s long since mastered his job – there is little that can be thrown at him that he hasn’t seen in the last fifteen or so years. So, his condition is one of high pay, mastery of work, and, improbably, discontent.

John Wilder: “You realize you have an advantage that 99% of people would die for. You’re financially secure. You can quit your job anytime. Literally, you could walk in to your boss this afternoon and quit. Your lifestyle wouldn’t change a bit.”

Not Elon Musk: “Yes.”

Unlikely Voice of Wisdom John Wilder: “So, what is it you want to do?”

Really, I Promise It Isn’t Elon Musk: “I need to think about it.”

Channeling Tyler Durden From Fight Club® John Wilder: “No. If you think about it, you’ll end up doing nothing but thinking about it. You have to do something. Physically start it. This weekend. I’ll check back on Monday to see how you did.”

There is a scene in the movie Fight Club™ where Tyler Durden holds a gun to the head of a liquor store clerk. If you haven’t seen the movie, I strongly suggest it. I probably watch it once a month while I write – I think there are few movies that communicate the human condition in modern life so well.

Full screen recommended.

And it’s true. I tend to think that everyone’s life would be a little better if they had Tyler Durden to be a life coach, to ever so gently coax them to be the best they can be while holding a .357 magnum Colt® Python™ to their head. That seems to be a bit frowned upon, so that leaves my friends with me. See how lucky you are?

In my role as Dr. Durden, I’ve noticed that there’s a problem some people have. It’s being too clever. It’s thinking. How do I know? It’s my problem that I try to compensate for by writing and doing. If I think about doing something, it will never get done. I keep thinking about fixing the banister that broke when we moved into the house a decade ago. It’s never been high on my list, since people falling down stairs is funny, with extra points if they are really old. But thinking about doing something never accomplishes anything.

If I plan to do it, it will get done. Half of my time driving to and from work on a day I’m going to write a post, I’m writing it in my head, selecting jokes, thinking of themes. It’s also spent thinking of how I’m going to connect the idea I want to share with students who might be forced to read this post when Mrs. Grundy tells them to compare and contrast my work with that poseur, Mark Twain, in high school in the year 2248 (that’s when Kirk will be a sophomore).

It may look like I’m driving to work, but I’m really plotting out what I’m going to write about. To be honest, it sometimes takes both lanes to do that. I wish the State Patrol® would be a little more understanding to artists like me.

Thankfully, The Mrs. is. The Mrs. and I had a conversation the other night. It may or may not have involved wine – I’m not telling unless I’ve been subpoenaed and am under oath to a House subcommittee. Actually, it wasn’t so much a conversation as The Mrs. describing to me how she felt about this little project I publish three times a week.

I don’t make any money on this blog, though I’ve made clear since day one that can change at any time. I have plans for several (eventual) ways to do that including adding subliminal messages causing you to want to pay for my health insurance. It looks like it’s already worked for Bernie Sanders.

No, at this point, writing is a hobby. But it’s a hobby that takes over 20 hours a week, sometimes closer to 30 hours. I still have a job, and I won’t stop interacting my family, so most nights I won’t even start writing before 9pm. A lot of that time comes from time I’d normally be selfishly engaged in what you mortals call “sleep”, but a chunk of that time comes directly from time I’d be spending with The Mrs. When I’m writing, I’m simply not available. I’m writing.

The Mrs.: “You know, I would certainly have an issue with the time that you spend writing, if it weren’t important.” There was more to this, where she detailed the number of hours I spend. But I keyed in on the word “Important.”

I was a little surprised by that. “Important?”

The Mrs.: “Yes. I can see that what you’re writing about is important. People need to hear it. So keep doing it.”

Okay, that proves she never reads this stuff. But as I talked more with my friend, the concept of “meaning” came up.

My Friend Who is Really Most Certainly Not Elon Musk: “So, it’s about meaning?”

Suddenly as Wise as the Roman Philosopher Seneca John Wilder: “That’s silly. You don’t go off chasing ‘meaning’ in your life. Pick out something you like to do, and do it. But figure out how to make it important to other people. You like to woodwork, right? You say you never have time to do it. Do it this weekend. Film it. Put it up on YouTube®. I’ll be checking up with you on Monday.”

I asked myself, why is my friend working at all? I think because he feels he’s supposed to work. That having a job is a rule, it’s what he’s always done. The problem that many of us have is that we tend to create rules where there aren’t any rules. I’m not sure why. Perhaps we need to justify what we do. Perhaps it’s like my two important rules for life:

Don’t tell everything you know.

Success? My friend is already successful in most ways a person can be successful. Their life is really good. I told them, directly, “You’ve been given so many gifts. If you don’t make something special of your life, you’re wasting it.”

Interestingly, this applies to you, too. And me. How will your breakfast taste tomorrow?"

- https://wilderwealthywise.com/

Bertrand Russell, “Three Passions”

“Three Passions”

”Three passions have governed my life:

The longings for love, the search for knowledge,

And unbearable pity for the suffering of humankind.

Love brings ecstasy and relieves loneliness.

In the union of love I have seen

In a mystic miniature the prefiguring vision

Of the heavens that saints and poets have imagined.

With equal passion I have sought knowledge.

I have wished to understand the hearts of people.

I have wished to know why the stars shine.

Love and knowledge led upwards to the heavens,

But always pity brought me back to earth;

Cries of pain reverberated in my heart,

Of children in famine, of victims tortured,

And of old people left helpless.

I long to alleviate the evil, but I cannot,

And I too suffer.

This has been my life; I found it worth living.”

- Bertrand Russell

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“But I couldn't respond. My culture had taught me all the wrong things well. So I lay completely still, and gave no reaction at all. But the soul has no culture. The soul has no nations. The soul has no color or accent or way of life. The soul is forever. The soul is one. And when the heart has its moment of truth and sorrow, the soul can't be stilled. I clenched my teeth against the stars. I closed my eyes. I surrendered to sleep. One of the reasons why we crave love, and seek it so desperately, is that love is the only cure for loneliness, and shame, and sorrow. But some feelings sink so deep into the heart that only loneliness can help you find them again. Some truths about yourself are so painful that only shame can help you live with them. And some things are just so sad that only your soul can do the crying for you.”

- Gregory David Roberts, "Shantaram"

"Alert! They Warn Americans To Prepare For A Depression: More Devastating Than Most People Expect"

Full screen recommended.

"Alert! They Warn Americans To Prepare For A Depression: 

More Devastating Than Most People Expect"

by Epic Economist

"Former President Trump came forward during a rally last week to warn that America’s economy is going down the drain and is set to face a much bigger disaster than a typical downturn over the next couple of months. His forecasts came shortly before new official numbers showed that U.S. economic growth is declining for the second consecutive quarter while consumer prices reached the highest level in a generation, and Americans' purchasing power continues to shrink. At this point, there's no way to avoid another economic slump, and what is coming next is going to be even more devastating than most people expect, experts say.

“Where we’re going now could be a very bad place.” He emphasized that millions of Americans are seeing their real wages collapse as inflation continues to rise and eat a bigger share of workers’ buying power. At the same time, worsening labor conditions have resulted in a historically depressed labor force participation rate, and the administration’s current push for a Green New Deal is only going to accelerate our economic slump given that the nation’s critical energy supplies are dwindling. “We got to get this act in order, we have to get this country going, or we’re going to have a serious problem,” he alerted.

In his view, calling the next downturn a recession is not enough to describe the difficulties we’re all going to face. Considering that virtually every sector of the economy is being hit by one disruption after the other, Trump argues that an economic depression that will rival the Great Depression of the 1930s is ahead, and a few days after his speech, new official numbers were released and they indicate that his forecasts might be spot on.

“On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released data showing that real U.S. GDP fell by an annualized 0.9 percent in the second quarter after contracting 1.6 percent in the first quarter. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth are a common definition for a recession, although recessions in the United States are officially declared by a committee of economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research using a broader definition than the two-quarter rule,” as explained by Tom Ozimek in a new article for The Epoch Times.

No wonder why so many experts believe things will get far worse as we move towards the end of the year. In his remarks, the former president also criticized the current government’s handling of the economy, blaming the Democrat-controlled White House for soaring inflation and growing economic imbalances.

On top of all of that, skyrocketing energy prices are making the situation much more complicated. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, soaring energy costs accounted for around half of the headline inflation figure. Trump argued that these decisions left the United States in a very vulnerable position. Now, we’re literally “begging” other countries to pump more oil instead of trying to ramp up domestic production. The shortage of energy supplies is already slowing down manufacturing activity and contributing to the deterioration of the country’s economic conditions. The term “recession” can be described as a broad-based weakness in the economy, and that’s exactly what we’re witnessing right now.

It’s safe to say that their attempts to curb inflation by rising interest rates will only make things worse. Our money is gradually becoming worthless paper and the decaying living standards of our country will destroy our Republic and plunge us into an economic depression unlike anything we’ve ever experienced in our lifetime. The moment of truth has arrived. Now more than ever, it’s time to wake up."

-  https://www.epiceconomist.com/

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“For this is what we do. Put one foot forward and then the other. Lift our eyes to the snarl and smile of the world once more. Think. Act. Feel. Add our little consequence to the tides of good and evil that flood and drain the world. Drag our shadowed crosses into the hope of another night. Push our brave hearts into the promise of a new day. With love: the passionate search for truth other than our own. With longing: the pure, ineffable yearning to be saved. For so long as fate keeps waiting, we live on. God help us. God forgive us. We live on.”

- Gregory David Roberts, “Shantaram”

God help us, indeed...

Musical Interlude: The Moody Blues, "Your Wildest Dreams"

Full screen recommended.

The Moody Blues, "Your Wildest Dreams"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"What's happening at the center of spiral galaxy NGC 5643? A swirling disk of stars and gas, NGC 5643's appearance is dominated by blue spiral arms and brown dust, as shown in the featured image taken by the Hubble Space Telescope. The core of this active galaxy glows brightly in radio waves and X-rays where twin jets have been found.

An unusual central glow makes NGC 5643 one of the closest examples of the Seyfert class of galaxies, where vast amounts of glowing gas are thought to be falling into a central massive black hole. NGC 5643, is a relatively close 55 million light years away, spans about 100 thousand light years across, and can be seen with a small telescope towards the constellation of the Wolf (Lupus)."

- https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap201005.html

"We Were Made For These Times"

by Clarissa Pinkola Estes

“My friends, do not lose heart. We were made for these times. I have heard from so many recently who are deeply and properly bewildered. They are concerned about the state of affairs in our world now. Ours is a time of almost daily astonishment and often righteous rage over the latest degradations of what matters most to civilized, visionary people.

You are right in your assessments. The lustre and hubris some have aspired to while endorsing acts so heinous against children, elders, everyday people, the poor, the unguarded, the helpless, is breathtaking. Yet, I urge you, ask you, gentle you, to please not spend your spirit dry by bewailing these difficult times. Especially do not lose hope. Most particularly because, the fact is that we were made for these times. Yes. For years, we have been learning, practicing, been in training for and just waiting to meet on this exact plain of engagement.

I grew up on the Great Lakes and recognize a seaworthy vessel when I see one. Regarding awakened souls, there have never been more able vessels in the waters than there are right now across the world. And they are fully provisioned and able to signal one another as never before in the history of humankind.

Look out over the prow; there are millions of boats of righteous souls on the waters with you. Even though your veneers may shiver from every wave in this stormy roil, I assure you that the long timbers composing your prow and rudder come from a greater forest. That long-grained lumber is known to withstand storms, to hold together, to hold its own, and to advance, regardless.

In any dark time, there is a tendency to veer toward fainting over how much is wrong or unmended in the world. Do not focus on that. There is a tendency, too, to fall into being weakened by dwelling on what is outside your reach, by what cannot yet be. Do not focus there. That is spending the wind without raising the sails.

We are needed, that is all we can know. And though we meet resistance, we more so will meet great souls who will hail us, love us and guide us, and we will know them when they appear. Didn’t you say you were a believer? Didn’t you say you pledged to listen to a voice greater? Didn’t you ask for grace? Don’t you remember that to be in grace means to submit to the voice greater?

Ours is not the task of fixing the entire world all at once, but of stretching out to mend the part of the world that is within our reach. Any small, calm thing that one soul can do to help another soul, to assist some portion of this poor suffering world, will help immensely. It is not given to us to know which acts or by whom, will cause the critical mass to tip toward an enduring good.

What is needed for dramatic change is an accumulation of acts, adding, adding to, adding more, continuing. We know that it does not take everyone on Earth to bring justice and peace, but only a small, determined group who will not give up during the first, second, or hundredth gale.

One of the most calming and powerful actions you can do to intervene in a stormy world is to stand up and show your soul. Soul on deck shines like gold in dark times. The light of the soul throws sparks, can send up flares, builds signal fires, causes proper matters to catch fire. To display the lantern of soul in shadowy times like these – to be fierce and to show mercy toward others; both are acts of immense bravery and greatest necessity.

Struggling souls catch light from other souls who are fully lit and willing to show it. If you would help to calm the tumult, this is one of the strongest things you can do.

There will always be times when you feel discouraged. I too have felt despair many times in my life, but I do not keep a chair for it. I will not entertain it. It is not allowed to eat from my plate. The reason is this: In my uttermost bones I know something, as do you. It is that there can be no despair when you remember why you came to Earth, who you serve, and who sent you here. The good words we say and the good deeds we do are not ours. They are the words and deeds of the One who brought us here. In that spirit, I hope you will write this on your wall: When a great ship is in harbor and moored, it is safe, there can be no doubt. But that is not what great ships are built for.”

- https://www.davidpaulkirkpatrick.com/

The Poet: William Stafford, "The Gift"

"The Gift"

"Time wants to show you a different country. It's the one

that your life conceals, the one waiting outside

when curtains are drawn, the one Grandmother hinted at

in her crochet design, the one almost found

over at the edge of the music, after the sermon.

It's the way life is, and you have it, a few years given.

You get killed now and then, violated

in various ways. (And sometimes it's turn about.)

You get tired of that. Long-suffering, you wait

and pray, and maybe good things come - maybe

the hurt slackens and you hardly feel it any more.

You have a breath without pain. It is called happiness.

It's a balance, the taking and passing along,

the composting of where you've been and how people

and weather treated you. It's a country where

you already are, bringing where you have been.

Time offers this gift in its millions of ways,

turning the world, moving the air, calling,

every morning, "Here, take it, it's yours."

- William Stafford  

"Job Numbers Are Fake, Aggressive Rate Hikes Guaranteed; Consumer In Critical Condition" Comments here:

Jeremiah Babe, 8/5/22:

"Job Numbers Are Fake, Aggressive Rate Hikes 

Guaranteed; Consumer In Critical Condition"

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/

The Daily "Near You?"

Clonee, Meath, Ireland. Thanks for stopping by!

"The Controlled Demolition of American Prosperity"

"The Controlled Demolition of American Prosperity"

by Jeffrey Tucker

"How pathetic that daily the Biden administration dares defend the current economic environment! It’s why these times more and more remind us all of some dystopian novel. They lie to us daily, like an unending exercise in gaslighting. And how degrading for the human beings who are paid to stand in front of microphones to utter such inanities! It’s truly below human dignity.

Just as inflation rates seem to improve in one area (gasoline, for example), it pops up in other areas. Food prices are on the move again. So it may cost a few cents less to get to the grocery store; you will spend more this week than last in doing so. Substituting fancy products for cheaper ones only gets you so far. Meanwhile, one sector above all else now seems to be absorbing new inflationary energy: your utility bills. Have a look and compare them with last month and you will see what I mean.

This is how inflation works. It is not one rate. There is no index in the real world. There are only price pressures that migrate from sector to sector, place to place and in ways that no one can predict. In Texas, over the weekend, I found a brisket for sale for $18 per pound that only last year cost $5 per pound. It’s from a local ranch, meaning that the rancher had to pay high fertilizer costs and more. This new price is not robbery: It’s cost-covering costs.

Of course, inflation affects real income. Right now, income is falling faster and for longer than at any time on record. No living person has ever been hit this hard. That includes people who lived through the Great Depression. At least back then, the dollars you held were growing in value. Today they are declining in value. And to top it off, this crash in living standards happened just following the biggest financial head fake in history during which time we believed we were rich one day and suddenly we were poor the next. What a remarkable and speedy shift!

But hey, at least we have credit cards! Credit card debt is up by 13% in the second quarter, which is the largest increase in 20 years. And people are paying for it too: Rates for floating balances month to month are running 16–17% thanks to the Fed’s new interest rate policies that will not tamp down inflation anytime soon but are absolutely killing the bond market and guaranteeing the recession that the government denies exists.

If people look up recession on Wikipedia, they can confirm that no such thing exists for one simple reason: The government says it is not happening. Just like the famine in Ukraine in the 1930s. What is unreported is not existent.

Take a careful look at this chart that compares the purchasing power of the dollar with increases in M2, which is the only money aggregate we have left that offers some modicum of credibility.

I’m not a betting man but there is every reason to expect that red line to fall and fall, at least to keep in line with the increase in producer prices, which are running at an incredible 20% per annum rate of increase right now.

The first great mega-disaster could be in our old friend housing. Demand is falling dramatically. The house-flipping party has ended. You cannot sell even at a massively inflated price because you will be dumping a 2% three-year loan for a new loan of 6%. The housing roulette of 2020–21 worked so long as interest rates made the racket financially viable but that is no longer the case. The result snuck up slowly and then all at once.

Forget renting too. Rental vacancy rates are down to the lowest levels in 40 years, even as the price of rents themselves are close to being on par with the CPI generally. The pace of change here is also worth a heads up. It’s going to get worse.

After the grim realities of the housing market sink in, there will be more bad news in labor markets. We are just seeing the first signs. The only way to understand this sector is by decoupling professional and working-class jobs. There will be no shortages of opportunities to drive trucks, tend bars, fix cars and install solar panels. But high-end managerial positions, particularly in financial companies, are another matter. No longer will a college degree count for much in this labor crunch.

Already the signs are there, with Robinhood cutting one in four positions as the day-trading craze of the lockdown years has evaporated. Google, Facebook and Amazon are already making noise about culling management-level positions. The overall market will show continuing labor shortages and people who expect six figures for doing next to nothing will find themselves sorely disappointed.

One might suppose there would be panic at the highest levels. I’m not seeing the evidence. Instead, we have a U.S. Congress - probably the most criminally minded majority in at least a century - throwing wild amounts of money around to special interests without a care in the world.

Looking back at it, the rigged election of 2020, in which Trump’s defeat also put control of the House and Senate in the Democrats’ hands, created a political calamity without precedent that is still ongoing. They figure that they have two more months of this nonsense and intend to pillage as much as they can while they can.

Nor are the major news media making much of a fuss about the end of American prosperity. Yesterday’s New York Times featured a top article explaining how you can avoid COVID by limiting the number of people you have at your home barbecue and making sure that all guests are fully vaccinated and boosted and that everyone has recently tested negative.

Sounds like a real party! And yes, this article was written just yesterday, not in 2020. That’s the ruling-class vision of our future: poor, foraging for food, out of gas, paying through the roof for electricity, unemployed and living off welfare, vaxxed up and testing constantly for the presence of the coronavirus. Or maybe monkeypox."

- dailyreckoning.com

"No Room For Cowards..."

“Life has no victims. There are no victims in this life. No one has the right to point fingers at his/her past and blame it for what he/she is today. We do not have the right to point our finger at someone else and blame that person for how we treat others today. Don’t hide in the corner, pointing fingers at your past. Don’t sit under the table, talking about someone who has hurt you. Instead, stand up and face your past! Face your fears! Face your pain! And stomach it all! You may have to do so kicking and screaming and throwing fits and crying – but by all means – face it! This life makes no room for cowards.”

- C. Joybell C.

"The Fed Has It EXACTLY Backwards"

"The Fed Has It EXACTLY Backwards"

by Brian Maher

"The Federal Reserve believes it hangs from the hooks of a horrendous dilemma. To cage the inflationary tiger presently amok, it would likely plunge the economy into severe recession… Yet if it navigates a wallowing economy away from recession, inflation will run and run and run. But is it a false choice? Must the Federal Reserve bludgeon the economy to cripple inflation?

Consider: It believes it must strangle off excess “demand” in the economy. It is this excess demand that keeps inflation a going concern. The Keynesian prayer book from which most economists read says it. High priest Paul Krugman, drawing on the Book of Demand: "The problem may be that the Biden economy boomed “too much,” feeding inflation, and that it now needs to cool off, which may involve a recession (but hasn’t yet)."

Archbishop Larry Summers intones: "The right thing to do is to raise taxes right now to take some of the demand out of the economy."

A lesser clergyman - Harvard professor Jason Furman - affirms that the “economic logic for demand reduction to curb inflation is clear.” Just so. But it is this ceaseless obsession with “demand” that afflicts and hagrides the economics profession as we see it.

What about its twin - supply? The economics profession has forgotten its Say’s law - that supply creates its own demand. “Products are paid for with products,” argued Jean-Baptiste Say over two centuries ago.

Consider this one example… One man produces bread. Another produces shoes. The cobbler who requires bread for his dinner appears before the baker. And the baker who must clad his feet appears before the cobbler. They may transact in money, it is true. Yet money merely throws an illusory veil across their transactions. Ultimately the baker purchases his shoes with the bread he has baked. And the cobbler purchases his bread with the shoes he has cobbled. Multiply this example by millions, extend it to the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, from the border with Mexico to the border with Canada, the calculus remains identical.

Enlightenment-era thinker James Mill (father of the more famous John Stuart Mill): "The demand of a nation is exactly its power of purchasing. But what is its power of purchasing? The extent undoubtedly of its annual produce. The extent of its demand therefore and the extent of its supply are always exactly commensurate."

Again: Supply creates its own demand. To increase supply is to increase demand. When the government attempts to increase demand with no production to match it… it attempts to outlaw Say’s law. What happens when the happy marriage of supply and demand is driven to divorce, to artificial rupture?

During the Great Depression the wiseacres of the economics profession consecrated themselves to raising “demand.” The farmers were in a bad way, they argued. These sad sacks could not fetch enough money for their produce or their livestock. They were wanting in the way of demand. And so they needed a hand up. A program was therefore required to raise prices, to increase their demand. The brain trust then in operation hatched a beautiful scheme. What was it? To set fire to the crops and murder the livestock.

That is correct - to set fire to the crops and murder the livestock. The business would increase farmer demand (while decreasing consumer supply). For emphasis: They did not butcher animals to bring them to market - but precisely the opposite - to keep them off the market.

Ponder for one moment the reality of it: Millions and millions starved. Yet the food to feed them was destroyed on hellish and industrial scales - to increase demand for one group. It is very nearly inconceivable. But there you are.

Today’s monetary authority wishes to collar inflation by throttling demand. Yet the result is also a throttling of supply. What is the answer to today’s galloping inflation? Not reduced supply… but a stable dollar. John Tamny of RealClearMarkets: "The rising consensus on the left and right [is] that “demand” is the source of our alleged “inflation” troubles today…"

Reduced economic growth via “higher taxes, lower government spending or a combination of the two” will tamp down rising price pressures. Except that these won’t… measures taken to reduce “demand” will by definition reduce supply… Actually, the inflation answer is a stable dollar. Nothing else…

The dominant ideologies of today (and yesterday) are still captivated by a cart-before-the-horse, demand-side view of the world…Conservatives [also] think shrinking demand is the answer. In their case, their critique of government spending is that it fosters “excess demand” on the way to higher prices. Except that it doesn’t.

While the arguments against government spending are too numerous to list, the latter doesn’t cause higher prices born of “excess demand.” We know this because government can only redistribute wealth and “demand” insofar as it reaches into the pockets of the productive. All demand is a consequence of supply, period. Will someone please notify the Federal Reserve?"

- dailyreckoning.com

"A Great Kindness..."

“So don’t ask yourself what people want. Ask instead, What is true? What really inspires me, excites me? What will really help people and take away their confusion and suffering? It’s sort of a funny, crazy way to go, but I think it’s the only way to bring water to the wasteland Joseph Campbell described. When I read something truthful, something real, I breathe a deep sigh and say, “Fantastic – I wasn’t mad or alone in thinking that, after all!” So often we are left to our own devices, struggling in the dark with this external and internal propaganda system. At that point, for someone to tell us the truth is a gift. In a world where people all around us are lying and confusing us, to be honest is a great kindness.”

- David Edwards

"If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh, otherwise they'll kill you." 

- Oscar Wilde 

Bill Bonner, "Beware Money Pox!"

"Beware Money Pox!"

Symptoms may include inflation volatility, extreme market fluctuations, 

falling income, housing crises, political unrest, recession, revolution and more...

by Bill Bonner

Youghal, Ireland - "We wrap up another week. And what’s new? Oh no… not again! The New York Times: "As Monkeypox Spreads, U.S. Declares a Health Emergency." "President Biden’s health secretary on Thursday declared the growing monkeypox outbreak a national health emergency, a rare designation signaling that the virus now represents a significant risk to Americans and setting in motion measures aimed at containing the threat. “We’re prepared to take our response to the next level in addressing this virus, and we urge every American to take monkeypox seriously,” the health secretary, Xavier Becerra, said at a news briefing."

Not a single American has yet died from monkeypox. Millions die each year from murder, suicide, disease, heartbreak and old age. Why make a federal case out of the simian pox? Oh, dear, dear reader… you know as well as we do. Emergencies… alarums… war – each one is a call to arms… and an excuse to spend money. The feds love ‘em all.

Sound and Fury: Meanwhile… the world of money is full of noise too… and mixed signals. On the one hand, many of the most immediate causes of inflation – stimmies, PPP, rampant money-printing, Covid lockdowns, and the Russo-Ukrainian War – seem to be working themselves out. Like a bad meal, they are passing through the system. The stimmies are over… the Russkies are winning… and, for now, the money-printing has stopped.

On the other hand, the Fed is still lending money to member banks at 650 basis points (6.5%) below the Consumer Price Index. And some price increases show no sign of easing off. Wages, for example, go up in response to higher prices. Then, employers need to pass along the higher costs in the form of even higher prices. 

Here’s USA Today: "Restaurant, fast-food and retail pay has risen sharply, especially since the pandemic triggered widespread labor shortages, presenting fresh competition to higher-skill fields like health care, manufacturing and construction in the battle for workers. For entry-level positions – such as certified nursing assistant, welder and painter – wages have broadly converged in the $15 to $18 an hour range, with fast-food and retail pay often near or above the skilled roles, experts say." Fifteen dollars an hour doesn’t seem like much to us. But it’s 50% more than many workers were getting a couple years ago.

The markets too are sending puzzling messages. WTI oil slid below $90 yesterday. Coinbase rose nearly 40%. Investors don’t seem to know what to make of it. Stocks wandered around yesterday, like a Congressional candidate, with no clear idea of where they were going.

A Crescendo of Debt: But as we saw earlier this week, major trends get underway in confusion and contradiction. Mr. Market seems to make a point of keeping investors guessing. Years go by and they guess wrong about what is afoot. It is only after the fact that we see the long, broad strides of a primary trend.

Looking back on the last 42 years, you’d have to be blind to miss it. Paul Volcker tamed inflation. Interest rates fell from 1981 until 2020. Falling interest rates meant that you could refinance – your home, your business – every few years… borrow more and more… and still have lower monthly payments. Leveraged real estate speculators, for example, were able to refinance their holdings at higher prices and lower interest rates… over and over. This is what enabled the debt explosion. Federal debt in 1980 was less than 33% of GDP. Today it is 125% of GDP. Private debt followed a similar path, with total public and private debt in 1980 at 150% of GDP. Today, it is more than three times as much – around 350%.

The real crescendo of debt came during the last 10 years – when the Fed went hog wild with inflation-adjusted interest rates below zero, and trillions in giveaways. By the time it reached its climax, the Dow was 44 times higher than when it began in 1982… and total debt had risen from under $5 trillion in 1980 to nearly $90 trillion today.

It is obvious what was going on. The Fed was pumping in money. The tide raised almost all boats. And now?

Hell to Pay: The Fed is turning off the pumps… and even beginning to reverse the flow. Its QT program (quantitative tightening) will sop up liquidity, by allowing existing bonds, now in custody at the Fed, to expire. When they go, the money they represented will die. The Fed giveth; the Fed taketh away. And there will be Hell to pay.

As long as the Fed sticks with the anti-inflation program the primary trend should be roughly equal and opposite to the last 40 years. That is, asset prices, now high, should fall. Interest rates, now low, should rise. Does the Fed have the backbone to follow through? Won’t it get confused by the mixed signals… and bow to Elizabeth Warren, Donald Trump, Wall Street and other “low interest” activists? And won’t today’s trend come to an abrupt halt? Stay tuned…"

- bonnerprivateresearch@substack.com

Must Watch! "The Unstable Economy Continues to Crater - Complete Meltdown"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly 8/5/22:

"The Unstable Economy Continues to Crater - 

Complete Meltdown"

We are getting warnings from around the globe. There are diesel shortages in Canada and the average Canadian has more debt than they ever had. It now costs the average family between $150 and $200 per week just to pay for the additional inflation of their lives. Elon musk is warning of a recession."

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com

Jim Kunstler, "A Glance Ahead"

"A Glance Ahead"

Satan is the father of lies and we have become Satanic, 

being and doing evil, most especially to ourselves…

by Jim Kunstler

"What’s ahead - like a few months down the road? Hysteria and chaos, if the “Joe Biden” regime can help it… and they’re helping it all they can. Twice vaxxed, twice boosted, and twice recent Covid-19 patient Dr. Anthony Fauci warned this week that the unvaxxed would “get into trouble” as the seasons turn this year. The part he left out is: the unvaxxed will be in trouble trying to keep up with helping their sick and dying vaccinated relatives whose immune systems have been damaged by their multiple vaxxes.

The boldness of Dr. Fauci’s lying is really something to behold. Who in the entire HHS-NIH-CDC bureaucracy has failed to notice that the mRNA “vaccines” have no efficacy whatever against Covid-19? The vaccinated are by far those still getting sick and increasingly disabled from the disease and even more from the vaxxes themselves. The emperor’s new clothes hang in shreds. Rumor is that many upper-level employees in these public health agencies are increasingly freaked out by their now-obvious complicity in a momentous crime. They know they will have to answer for allowing the mRNA fiasco to get this far, for going along to get along, and they’re preparing to mutiny to save their own asses. Wait for it.

The regime’s back-up plan is the comical monkeypox, transmitted to date mainly via all-male orgies. HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra declared a national monkeypox emergency this week, saying he’d “explore every option on the table” (except an official advisory against homosexual orgies). There is, of course, reasonable suspicion that monkeypox is but one device for shutting down the November mid-term election, or, more deviously, closing polling places and allowing only mail-in ballots - the easiest way to rig elections.

That will lead naturally to several state’s attorneys general seeking relief in the Supreme Court against the federal government’s unconstitutional takeover of the states’ duty to conduct their elections. The “Joe Biden” regime will lose that one, but not before royally pissing off at least half the adults in the land, leading to even greater-than-anticipated election losses for the Party of Chaos.

Meanwhile, the Party of Chaos is about to unleash its “Inflation Reduction Act,” which proposes to spend three quarters of a trillion dollars created from thin air into an economy already hyperventilating on three years of multi-trillion-dollar injections derived from no productive activity. At the same time, the act will raise taxes especially for low-end wage earners and small businesses, completing the regime’s destruction of the middle-class. The cherry-on-top is the provision to double the size of the Internal Revenue Service by hiring 87,000 new employees to harass ordinary American taxpayers. Is that what you voted for in 2020? I thought not.

None of that is going to work as intended. More likely, passage of the act will trigger destruction of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and a stampede out of dollar-denominated investments, which is to say, a very severe financial crisis. Credit will freeze, the distribution and sales of goods will cease, interest will stop being paid on virtually all outstanding debt, the bond market will implode, few will have anything identifiable as money, and there will be little in the way of everyday goods like food and gasoline to buy anyway.

You realize, of course, that this is a description of economic collapse. If things roll that way, there will be absolutely no trust left in the US government. It will be either ignored or opposed. And in places like my own New York, under the tyrannical and titanically incompetent accidental Governor Kathy Hochul, there will be no trust in state government either. Meaning, we’re on our own, community-by-community. This will be a very interesting experiment in the dynamics of emergence - the self-organizing properties of systems in chaos. I doubt that it will resolve in the direction of the globalists’ dreams of transhuman technocracy. Every macro trend now runs against centralization.

But the process could conceivably invite an attempted Chinese takeover of the USA, if not militarily, then in a way similar to America’s asset-stripping operations in the collapsed Soviet Union of the 1990s, a looting spree - as seen many other times in history when empires founder. Or else, the rest of the world will just kick back and witness the spectacle of our struggle as the lights of Western Civ flicker out. (Europe will be right in it with us, by the way.) The other nations of the world are tired of us trying to push them around, with increasingly evil intentions. They will enjoy watching our tribulations. They will be convinced we deserve it.

This is what comes from a culture of immersive and pervasive dishonesty. Satan is the father of lies and we have become Satanic, being and doing evil, most especially to ourselves, whether you believe in a literal Satan or not. So, do you think now that being transgressive is… fun? You’ll be changing what’s left of your mind about that soon. Along with the threat of literal starvation will also arise a terrible hunger for truth: How did this happen? How did we come to do this? Who was behind it? It won’t be hard to find out, once we’re motivated to look."

- https://kunstler.com/

"How It Really Is"

"A Phony Façade"

Amid soaring debt and falling income,

the Feds propose a $739 billion dollar lie.

Gregory Mannarino, "Alert! The 10-Year Yield Is Spiking Again! If This Continues Expect Stocks To Crater!"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 4/5/22:

"Alert! The 10-Year Yield Is Spiking Again!

 If This Continues Expect Stocks To Crater!"

- https://traderschoice.net/

Comments here:

- https://www.youtube.com/