Gregory Mannarino, PM 8/5/22:
"Yield Curve Is The Most Inverted Since
The Dot-Com Bubble/Meltdown"
Comments here:
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Related:
So, we rise from the rubble...
Saturday, August 6, 2022
"Success, Fight Club, Strippers and Socialists"
"Success, Fight Club, Strippers and Socialists"
by John Wilder
"I had a conversation with a friend today. Oh, sure, I hear you say, what would an iconoclastic iron-jawed individualist with a body odor redolent of medium rare ribeye (with just a hint of pepper) like John Wilder need with a friend? I guess we all have our little weaknesses. And dogs follow me. Because I smell like steak.
In this particular case as with most of my friends, I’ve known this friend for years. I’ve known most of my close friends longer than The Boy has been alive, and he’s in college now. It’s nice. If a day, a week, a month or a year goes by, so what? We can still restart the conversation where we left off. It’s as comfortable as watching a movie you’ve seen a dozen times.
I’ll make the observation that the only place where the character of people change is in a movie – almost all of my close friends have the same sense of humor and the same sense of values that they had when our friendships were forming. Absent a significant emotional event, people are a constant. And I like that.
There is a corresponding trust that comes with being a close friend – honesty. That’s why when talking with my friend, I really enjoyed the chance to be honest. Honesty is difficult because it requires that trust, because really honest criticism is hard to take, even when it comes from a friend. Or a co-worker. Or a relative. Or someone you just met. Or your UPS® delivery guy. Oh, wait. Most people don’t like honest. But my friends do.
This particular friend is really in a good position in life, which seems to be a common pattern with my friends. He has a spouse that makes more money than he does, and, in general, the household probably brings in enough cash each month so that Nigerian princes send emails to them asking for money. They’re wealthy enough that they donate to the homeless. This appears to be a more socially acceptable donation strategy than my “donation to the topless,” scheme.
But lest ye want to class my friend as the evil, selfish, wealthy type, he’s not. The family has a huge number of kids, and it’s a close family. My friend is constantly taking time off to go to athletic events, and when we catch up, I can sense that the relationship he has with his kids isn’t a surface relationship – it’s genuine and deep. I can tell, because I know people who understand genuine relationships, who listen to both sides of a family argument – my neighbors.
And yet... despite the wealth, despite the great family, my friend feels that there’s something missing. He is as high as he wants to go in the company he works at – any higher and the travel demands would pull him away from family. He’s long since mastered his job – there is little that can be thrown at him that he hasn’t seen in the last fifteen or so years. So, his condition is one of high pay, mastery of work, and, improbably, discontent.
John Wilder: “You realize you have an advantage that 99% of people would die for. You’re financially secure. You can quit your job anytime. Literally, you could walk in to your boss this afternoon and quit. Your lifestyle wouldn’t change a bit.”
Not Elon Musk: “Yes.”
Unlikely Voice of Wisdom John Wilder: “So, what is it you want to do?”
Really, I Promise It Isn’t Elon Musk: “I need to think about it.”
Channeling Tyler Durden From Fight Club® John Wilder: “No. If you think about it, you’ll end up doing nothing but thinking about it. You have to do something. Physically start it. This weekend. I’ll check back on Monday to see how you did.”
There is a scene in the movie Fight Club™ where Tyler Durden holds a gun to the head of a liquor store clerk. If you haven’t seen the movie, I strongly suggest it. I probably watch it once a month while I write – I think there are few movies that communicate the human condition in modern life so well.
Full screen recommended.
And it’s true. I tend to think that everyone’s life would be a little better if they had Tyler Durden to be a life coach, to ever so gently coax them to be the best they can be while holding a .357 magnum Colt® Python™ to their head. That seems to be a bit frowned upon, so that leaves my friends with me. See how lucky you are?
In my role as Dr. Durden, I’ve noticed that there’s a problem some people have. It’s being too clever. It’s thinking. How do I know? It’s my problem that I try to compensate for by writing and doing. If I think about doing something, it will never get done. I keep thinking about fixing the banister that broke when we moved into the house a decade ago. It’s never been high on my list, since people falling down stairs is funny, with extra points if they are really old. But thinking about doing something never accomplishes anything.
If I plan to do it, it will get done. Half of my time driving to and from work on a day I’m going to write a post, I’m writing it in my head, selecting jokes, thinking of themes. It’s also spent thinking of how I’m going to connect the idea I want to share with students who might be forced to read this post when Mrs. Grundy tells them to compare and contrast my work with that poseur, Mark Twain, in high school in the year 2248 (that’s when Kirk will be a sophomore).
It may look like I’m driving to work, but I’m really plotting out what I’m going to write about. To be honest, it sometimes takes both lanes to do that. I wish the State Patrol® would be a little more understanding to artists like me.
Thankfully, The Mrs. is. The Mrs. and I had a conversation the other night. It may or may not have involved wine – I’m not telling unless I’ve been subpoenaed and am under oath to a House subcommittee. Actually, it wasn’t so much a conversation as The Mrs. describing to me how she felt about this little project I publish three times a week.
I don’t make any money on this blog, though I’ve made clear since day one that can change at any time. I have plans for several (eventual) ways to do that including adding subliminal messages causing you to want to pay for my health insurance. It looks like it’s already worked for Bernie Sanders.
No, at this point, writing is a hobby. But it’s a hobby that takes over 20 hours a week, sometimes closer to 30 hours. I still have a job, and I won’t stop interacting my family, so most nights I won’t even start writing before 9pm. A lot of that time comes from time I’d normally be selfishly engaged in what you mortals call “sleep”, but a chunk of that time comes directly from time I’d be spending with The Mrs. When I’m writing, I’m simply not available. I’m writing.
The Mrs.: “You know, I would certainly have an issue with the time that you spend writing, if it weren’t important.” There was more to this, where she detailed the number of hours I spend. But I keyed in on the word “Important.”
I was a little surprised by that. “Important?”
The Mrs.: “Yes. I can see that what you’re writing about is important. People need to hear it. So keep doing it.”
Okay, that proves she never reads this stuff. But as I talked more with my friend, the concept of “meaning” came up.
My Friend Who is Really Most Certainly Not Elon Musk: “So, it’s about meaning?”
Suddenly as Wise as the Roman Philosopher Seneca John Wilder: “That’s silly. You don’t go off chasing ‘meaning’ in your life. Pick out something you like to do, and do it. But figure out how to make it important to other people. You like to woodwork, right? You say you never have time to do it. Do it this weekend. Film it. Put it up on YouTube®. I’ll be checking up with you on Monday.”
I asked myself, why is my friend working at all? I think because he feels he’s supposed to work. That having a job is a rule, it’s what he’s always done. The problem that many of us have is that we tend to create rules where there aren’t any rules. I’m not sure why. Perhaps we need to justify what we do. Perhaps it’s like my two important rules for life:
Don’t tell everything you know.
Success? My friend is already successful in most ways a person can be successful. Their life is really good. I told them, directly, “You’ve been given so many gifts. If you don’t make something special of your life, you’re wasting it.”
Interestingly, this applies to you, too. And me. How will your breakfast taste tomorrow?"
Friday, August 5, 2022
Bertrand Russell, “Three Passions”
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“Three Passions”
”Three passions have governed my life:
The longings for love, the search for knowledge,
And unbearable pity for the suffering of humankind.
Love brings ecstasy and relieves loneliness.
In the union of love I have seen
In a mystic miniature the prefiguring vision
Of the heavens that saints and poets have imagined.
With equal passion I have sought knowledge.
I have wished to understand the hearts of people.
I have wished to know why the stars shine.
Love and knowledge led upwards to the heavens,
But always pity brought me back to earth;
Cries of pain reverberated in my heart,
Of children in famine, of victims tortured,
And of old people left helpless.
I long to alleviate the evil, but I cannot,
And I too suffer.
This has been my life; I found it worth living.”
- Bertrand Russell
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“But I couldn't respond. My culture had taught me all the wrong things well. So I lay completely still, and gave no reaction at all. But the soul has no culture. The soul has no nations. The soul has no color or accent or way of life. The soul is forever. The soul is one. And when the heart has its moment of truth and sorrow, the soul can't be stilled. I clenched my teeth against the stars. I closed my eyes. I surrendered to sleep. One of the reasons why we crave love, and seek it so desperately, is that love is the only cure for loneliness, and shame, and sorrow. But some feelings sink so deep into the heart that only loneliness can help you find them again. Some truths about yourself are so painful that only shame can help you live with them. And some things are just so sad that only your soul can do the crying for you.”
- Gregory David Roberts, "Shantaram"
"Alert! They Warn Americans To Prepare For A Depression: More Devastating Than Most People Expect"
Full screen recommended.
"Alert! They Warn Americans To Prepare For A Depression:
More Devastating Than Most People Expect"
by Epic Economist
"Former President Trump came forward during a rally last week to warn that America’s economy is going down the drain and is set to face a much bigger disaster than a typical downturn over the next couple of months. His forecasts came shortly before new official numbers showed that U.S. economic growth is declining for the second consecutive quarter while consumer prices reached the highest level in a generation, and Americans' purchasing power continues to shrink. At this point, there's no way to avoid another economic slump, and what is coming next is going to be even more devastating than most people expect, experts say.
“Where we’re going now could be a very bad place.” He emphasized that millions of Americans are seeing their real wages collapse as inflation continues to rise and eat a bigger share of workers’ buying power. At the same time, worsening labor conditions have resulted in a historically depressed labor force participation rate, and the administration’s current push for a Green New Deal is only going to accelerate our economic slump given that the nation’s critical energy supplies are dwindling. “We got to get this act in order, we have to get this country going, or we’re going to have a serious problem,” he alerted.
In his view, calling the next downturn a recession is not enough to describe the difficulties we’re all going to face. Considering that virtually every sector of the economy is being hit by one disruption after the other, Trump argues that an economic depression that will rival the Great Depression of the 1930s is ahead, and a few days after his speech, new official numbers were released and they indicate that his forecasts might be spot on.
“On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released data showing that real U.S. GDP fell by an annualized 0.9 percent in the second quarter after contracting 1.6 percent in the first quarter. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth are a common definition for a recession, although recessions in the United States are officially declared by a committee of economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research using a broader definition than the two-quarter rule,” as explained by Tom Ozimek in a new article for The Epoch Times.
No wonder why so many experts believe things will get far worse as we move towards the end of the year. In his remarks, the former president also criticized the current government’s handling of the economy, blaming the Democrat-controlled White House for soaring inflation and growing economic imbalances.
On top of all of that, skyrocketing energy prices are making the situation much more complicated. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, soaring energy costs accounted for around half of the headline inflation figure. Trump argued that these decisions left the United States in a very vulnerable position. Now, we’re literally “begging” other countries to pump more oil instead of trying to ramp up domestic production. The shortage of energy supplies is already slowing down manufacturing activity and contributing to the deterioration of the country’s economic conditions. The term “recession” can be described as a broad-based weakness in the economy, and that’s exactly what we’re witnessing right now.
It’s safe to say that their attempts to curb inflation by rising interest rates will only make things worse. Our money is gradually becoming worthless paper and the decaying living standards of our country will destroy our Republic and plunge us into an economic depression unlike anything we’ve ever experienced in our lifetime. The moment of truth has arrived. Now more than ever, it’s time to wake up."
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“For this is what we do. Put one foot forward and then the other. Lift our eyes to the snarl and smile of the world once more. Think. Act. Feel. Add our little consequence to the tides of good and evil that flood and drain the world. Drag our shadowed crosses into the hope of another night. Push our brave hearts into the promise of a new day. With love: the passionate search for truth other than our own. With longing: the pure, ineffable yearning to be saved. For so long as fate keeps waiting, we live on. God help us. God forgive us. We live on.”
- Gregory David Roberts, “Shantaram”
God help us, indeed...
Musical Interlude: The Moody Blues, "Your Wildest Dreams"
Full screen recommended.
The Moody Blues, "Your Wildest Dreams"
"A Look to the Heavens"
"What's happening at the center of spiral galaxy NGC 5643? A swirling disk of stars and gas, NGC 5643's appearance is dominated by blue spiral arms and brown dust, as shown in the featured image taken by the Hubble Space Telescope. The core of this active galaxy glows brightly in radio waves and X-rays where twin jets have been found.
An unusual central glow makes NGC 5643 one of the closest examples of the Seyfert class of galaxies, where vast amounts of glowing gas are thought to be falling into a central massive black hole. NGC 5643, is a relatively close 55 million light years away, spans about 100 thousand light years across, and can be seen with a small telescope towards the constellation of the Wolf (Lupus)."
"We Were Made For These Times"
by Clarissa Pinkola Estes
“My friends, do not lose heart. We were made for these times. I have heard from so many recently who are deeply and properly bewildered. They are concerned about the state of affairs in our world now. Ours is a time of almost daily astonishment and often righteous rage over the latest degradations of what matters most to civilized, visionary people.
You are right in your assessments. The lustre and hubris some have aspired to while endorsing acts so heinous against children, elders, everyday people, the poor, the unguarded, the helpless, is breathtaking. Yet, I urge you, ask you, gentle you, to please not spend your spirit dry by bewailing these difficult times. Especially do not lose hope. Most particularly because, the fact is that we were made for these times. Yes. For years, we have been learning, practicing, been in training for and just waiting to meet on this exact plain of engagement.
I grew up on the Great Lakes and recognize a seaworthy vessel when I see one. Regarding awakened souls, there have never been more able vessels in the waters than there are right now across the world. And they are fully provisioned and able to signal one another as never before in the history of humankind.
Look out over the prow; there are millions of boats of righteous souls on the waters with you. Even though your veneers may shiver from every wave in this stormy roil, I assure you that the long timbers composing your prow and rudder come from a greater forest. That long-grained lumber is known to withstand storms, to hold together, to hold its own, and to advance, regardless.
In any dark time, there is a tendency to veer toward fainting over how much is wrong or unmended in the world. Do not focus on that. There is a tendency, too, to fall into being weakened by dwelling on what is outside your reach, by what cannot yet be. Do not focus there. That is spending the wind without raising the sails.
We are needed, that is all we can know. And though we meet resistance, we more so will meet great souls who will hail us, love us and guide us, and we will know them when they appear. Didn’t you say you were a believer? Didn’t you say you pledged to listen to a voice greater? Didn’t you ask for grace? Don’t you remember that to be in grace means to submit to the voice greater?
Ours is not the task of fixing the entire world all at once, but of stretching out to mend the part of the world that is within our reach. Any small, calm thing that one soul can do to help another soul, to assist some portion of this poor suffering world, will help immensely. It is not given to us to know which acts or by whom, will cause the critical mass to tip toward an enduring good.
What is needed for dramatic change is an accumulation of acts, adding, adding to, adding more, continuing. We know that it does not take everyone on Earth to bring justice and peace, but only a small, determined group who will not give up during the first, second, or hundredth gale.
One of the most calming and powerful actions you can do to intervene in a stormy world is to stand up and show your soul. Soul on deck shines like gold in dark times. The light of the soul throws sparks, can send up flares, builds signal fires, causes proper matters to catch fire. To display the lantern of soul in shadowy times like these – to be fierce and to show mercy toward others; both are acts of immense bravery and greatest necessity.
Struggling souls catch light from other souls who are fully lit and willing to show it. If you would help to calm the tumult, this is one of the strongest things you can do.
There will always be times when you feel discouraged. I too have felt despair many times in my life, but I do not keep a chair for it. I will not entertain it. It is not allowed to eat from my plate. The reason is this: In my uttermost bones I know something, as do you. It is that there can be no despair when you remember why you came to Earth, who you serve, and who sent you here. The good words we say and the good deeds we do are not ours. They are the words and deeds of the One who brought us here. In that spirit, I hope you will write this on your wall: When a great ship is in harbor and moored, it is safe, there can be no doubt. But that is not what great ships are built for.”
The Poet: William Stafford, "The Gift"
"The Gift"
"Time wants to show you a different country. It's the one
that your life conceals, the one waiting outside
when curtains are drawn, the one Grandmother hinted at
in her crochet design, the one almost found
over at the edge of the music, after the sermon.
It's the way life is, and you have it, a few years given.
You get killed now and then, violated
in various ways. (And sometimes it's turn about.)
You get tired of that. Long-suffering, you wait
and pray, and maybe good things come - maybe
the hurt slackens and you hardly feel it any more.
You have a breath without pain. It is called happiness.
It's a balance, the taking and passing along,
the composting of where you've been and how people
and weather treated you. It's a country where
you already are, bringing where you have been.
Time offers this gift in its millions of ways,
turning the world, moving the air, calling,
every morning, "Here, take it, it's yours."
- William Stafford
"Job Numbers Are Fake, Aggressive Rate Hikes Guaranteed; Consumer In Critical Condition" Comments here:
Jeremiah Babe, 8/5/22:
"Job Numbers Are Fake, Aggressive Rate Hikes
Guaranteed; Consumer In Critical Condition"
Comments here:
"The Controlled Demolition of American Prosperity"
"The Controlled Demolition of American Prosperity"
by Jeffrey Tucker
"How pathetic that daily the Biden administration dares defend the current economic environment! It’s why these times more and more remind us all of some dystopian novel. They lie to us daily, like an unending exercise in gaslighting. And how degrading for the human beings who are paid to stand in front of microphones to utter such inanities! It’s truly below human dignity.
Just as inflation rates seem to improve in one area (gasoline, for example), it pops up in other areas. Food prices are on the move again. So it may cost a few cents less to get to the grocery store; you will spend more this week than last in doing so. Substituting fancy products for cheaper ones only gets you so far. Meanwhile, one sector above all else now seems to be absorbing new inflationary energy: your utility bills. Have a look and compare them with last month and you will see what I mean.
This is how inflation works. It is not one rate. There is no index in the real world. There are only price pressures that migrate from sector to sector, place to place and in ways that no one can predict. In Texas, over the weekend, I found a brisket for sale for $18 per pound that only last year cost $5 per pound. It’s from a local ranch, meaning that the rancher had to pay high fertilizer costs and more. This new price is not robbery: It’s cost-covering costs.
Of course, inflation affects real income. Right now, income is falling faster and for longer than at any time on record. No living person has ever been hit this hard. That includes people who lived through the Great Depression. At least back then, the dollars you held were growing in value. Today they are declining in value. And to top it off, this crash in living standards happened just following the biggest financial head fake in history during which time we believed we were rich one day and suddenly we were poor the next. What a remarkable and speedy shift!
But hey, at least we have credit cards! Credit card debt is up by 13% in the second quarter, which is the largest increase in 20 years. And people are paying for it too: Rates for floating balances month to month are running 16–17% thanks to the Fed’s new interest rate policies that will not tamp down inflation anytime soon but are absolutely killing the bond market and guaranteeing the recession that the government denies exists.
If people look up recession on Wikipedia, they can confirm that no such thing exists for one simple reason: The government says it is not happening. Just like the famine in Ukraine in the 1930s. What is unreported is not existent.
Take a careful look at this chart that compares the purchasing power of the dollar with increases in M2, which is the only money aggregate we have left that offers some modicum of credibility.
I’m not a betting man but there is every reason to expect that red line to fall and fall, at least to keep in line with the increase in producer prices, which are running at an incredible 20% per annum rate of increase right now.
The first great mega-disaster could be in our old friend housing. Demand is falling dramatically. The house-flipping party has ended. You cannot sell even at a massively inflated price because you will be dumping a 2% three-year loan for a new loan of 6%. The housing roulette of 2020–21 worked so long as interest rates made the racket financially viable but that is no longer the case. The result snuck up slowly and then all at once.
Forget renting too. Rental vacancy rates are down to the lowest levels in 40 years, even as the price of rents themselves are close to being on par with the CPI generally. The pace of change here is also worth a heads up. It’s going to get worse.
After the grim realities of the housing market sink in, there will be more bad news in labor markets. We are just seeing the first signs. The only way to understand this sector is by decoupling professional and working-class jobs. There will be no shortages of opportunities to drive trucks, tend bars, fix cars and install solar panels. But high-end managerial positions, particularly in financial companies, are another matter. No longer will a college degree count for much in this labor crunch.
Already the signs are there, with Robinhood cutting one in four positions as the day-trading craze of the lockdown years has evaporated. Google, Facebook and Amazon are already making noise about culling management-level positions. The overall market will show continuing labor shortages and people who expect six figures for doing next to nothing will find themselves sorely disappointed.
One might suppose there would be panic at the highest levels. I’m not seeing the evidence. Instead, we have a U.S. Congress - probably the most criminally minded majority in at least a century - throwing wild amounts of money around to special interests without a care in the world.
Looking back at it, the rigged election of 2020, in which Trump’s defeat also put control of the House and Senate in the Democrats’ hands, created a political calamity without precedent that is still ongoing. They figure that they have two more months of this nonsense and intend to pillage as much as they can while they can.
Nor are the major news media making much of a fuss about the end of American prosperity. Yesterday’s New York Times featured a top article explaining how you can avoid COVID by limiting the number of people you have at your home barbecue and making sure that all guests are fully vaccinated and boosted and that everyone has recently tested negative.
Sounds like a real party! And yes, this article was written just yesterday, not in 2020. That’s the ruling-class vision of our future: poor, foraging for food, out of gas, paying through the roof for electricity, unemployed and living off welfare, vaxxed up and testing constantly for the presence of the coronavirus. Or maybe monkeypox."
"No Room For Cowards..."
“Life has no victims. There are no victims in this life. No one has the right to point fingers at his/her past and blame it for what he/she is today. We do not have the right to point our finger at someone else and blame that person for how we treat others today. Don’t hide in the corner, pointing fingers at your past. Don’t sit under the table, talking about someone who has hurt you. Instead, stand up and face your past! Face your fears! Face your pain! And stomach it all! You may have to do so kicking and screaming and throwing fits and crying – but by all means – face it! This life makes no room for cowards.”
- C. Joybell C.
"The Fed Has It EXACTLY Backwards"
"The Fed Has It EXACTLY Backwards"
by Brian Maher
"The Federal Reserve believes it hangs from the hooks of a horrendous dilemma. To cage the inflationary tiger presently amok, it would likely plunge the economy into severe recession… Yet if it navigates a wallowing economy away from recession, inflation will run and run and run. But is it a false choice? Must the Federal Reserve bludgeon the economy to cripple inflation?
Consider: It believes it must strangle off excess “demand” in the economy. It is this excess demand that keeps inflation a going concern. The Keynesian prayer book from which most economists read says it. High priest Paul Krugman, drawing on the Book of Demand: "The problem may be that the Biden economy boomed “too much,” feeding inflation, and that it now needs to cool off, which may involve a recession (but hasn’t yet)."
Archbishop Larry Summers intones: "The right thing to do is to raise taxes right now to take some of the demand out of the economy."
A lesser clergyman - Harvard professor Jason Furman - affirms that the “economic logic for demand reduction to curb inflation is clear.” Just so. But it is this ceaseless obsession with “demand” that afflicts and hagrides the economics profession as we see it.
What about its twin - supply? The economics profession has forgotten its Say’s law - that supply creates its own demand. “Products are paid for with products,” argued Jean-Baptiste Say over two centuries ago.
Consider this one example… One man produces bread. Another produces shoes. The cobbler who requires bread for his dinner appears before the baker. And the baker who must clad his feet appears before the cobbler. They may transact in money, it is true. Yet money merely throws an illusory veil across their transactions. Ultimately the baker purchases his shoes with the bread he has baked. And the cobbler purchases his bread with the shoes he has cobbled. Multiply this example by millions, extend it to the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, from the border with Mexico to the border with Canada, the calculus remains identical.
Enlightenment-era thinker James Mill (father of the more famous John Stuart Mill): "The demand of a nation is exactly its power of purchasing. But what is its power of purchasing? The extent undoubtedly of its annual produce. The extent of its demand therefore and the extent of its supply are always exactly commensurate."
Again: Supply creates its own demand. To increase supply is to increase demand. When the government attempts to increase demand with no production to match it… it attempts to outlaw Say’s law. What happens when the happy marriage of supply and demand is driven to divorce, to artificial rupture?
During the Great Depression the wiseacres of the economics profession consecrated themselves to raising “demand.” The farmers were in a bad way, they argued. These sad sacks could not fetch enough money for their produce or their livestock. They were wanting in the way of demand. And so they needed a hand up. A program was therefore required to raise prices, to increase their demand. The brain trust then in operation hatched a beautiful scheme. What was it? To set fire to the crops and murder the livestock.
That is correct - to set fire to the crops and murder the livestock. The business would increase farmer demand (while decreasing consumer supply). For emphasis: They did not butcher animals to bring them to market - but precisely the opposite - to keep them off the market.
Ponder for one moment the reality of it: Millions and millions starved. Yet the food to feed them was destroyed on hellish and industrial scales - to increase demand for one group. It is very nearly inconceivable. But there you are.
Today’s monetary authority wishes to collar inflation by throttling demand. Yet the result is also a throttling of supply. What is the answer to today’s galloping inflation? Not reduced supply… but a stable dollar. John Tamny of RealClearMarkets: "The rising consensus on the left and right [is] that “demand” is the source of our alleged “inflation” troubles today…"
Reduced economic growth via “higher taxes, lower government spending or a combination of the two” will tamp down rising price pressures. Except that these won’t… measures taken to reduce “demand” will by definition reduce supply… Actually, the inflation answer is a stable dollar. Nothing else…
The dominant ideologies of today (and yesterday) are still captivated by a cart-before-the-horse, demand-side view of the world…Conservatives [also] think shrinking demand is the answer. In their case, their critique of government spending is that it fosters “excess demand” on the way to higher prices. Except that it doesn’t.
While the arguments against government spending are too numerous to list, the latter doesn’t cause higher prices born of “excess demand.” We know this because government can only redistribute wealth and “demand” insofar as it reaches into the pockets of the productive. All demand is a consequence of supply, period. Will someone please notify the Federal Reserve?"
"A Great Kindness..."
“So don’t ask yourself what people want. Ask instead, What is true? What really inspires me, excites me? What will really help people and take away their confusion and suffering? It’s sort of a funny, crazy way to go, but I think it’s the only way to bring water to the wasteland Joseph Campbell described. When I read something truthful, something real, I breathe a deep sigh and say, “Fantastic – I wasn’t mad or alone in thinking that, after all!” So often we are left to our own devices, struggling in the dark with this external and internal propaganda system. At that point, for someone to tell us the truth is a gift. In a world where people all around us are lying and confusing us, to be honest is a great kindness.”
- David Edwards
"If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh, otherwise they'll kill you."
- Oscar Wilde
Bill Bonner, "Beware Money Pox!"
"Beware Money Pox!"
Symptoms may include inflation volatility, extreme market fluctuations,
falling income, housing crises, political unrest, recession, revolution and more...
by Bill Bonner
Youghal, Ireland - "We wrap up another week. And what’s new? Oh no… not again! The New York Times: "As Monkeypox Spreads, U.S. Declares a Health Emergency." "President Biden’s health secretary on Thursday declared the growing monkeypox outbreak a national health emergency, a rare designation signaling that the virus now represents a significant risk to Americans and setting in motion measures aimed at containing the threat. “We’re prepared to take our response to the next level in addressing this virus, and we urge every American to take monkeypox seriously,” the health secretary, Xavier Becerra, said at a news briefing."
Not a single American has yet died from monkeypox. Millions die each year from murder, suicide, disease, heartbreak and old age. Why make a federal case out of the simian pox? Oh, dear, dear reader… you know as well as we do. Emergencies… alarums… war – each one is a call to arms… and an excuse to spend money. The feds love ‘em all.
Sound and Fury: Meanwhile… the world of money is full of noise too… and mixed signals. On the one hand, many of the most immediate causes of inflation – stimmies, PPP, rampant money-printing, Covid lockdowns, and the Russo-Ukrainian War – seem to be working themselves out. Like a bad meal, they are passing through the system. The stimmies are over… the Russkies are winning… and, for now, the money-printing has stopped.
On the other hand, the Fed is still lending money to member banks at 650 basis points (6.5%) below the Consumer Price Index. And some price increases show no sign of easing off. Wages, for example, go up in response to higher prices. Then, employers need to pass along the higher costs in the form of even higher prices.
Here’s USA Today: "Restaurant, fast-food and retail pay has risen sharply, especially since the pandemic triggered widespread labor shortages, presenting fresh competition to higher-skill fields like health care, manufacturing and construction in the battle for workers. For entry-level positions – such as certified nursing assistant, welder and painter – wages have broadly converged in the $15 to $18 an hour range, with fast-food and retail pay often near or above the skilled roles, experts say." Fifteen dollars an hour doesn’t seem like much to us. But it’s 50% more than many workers were getting a couple years ago.
The markets too are sending puzzling messages. WTI oil slid below $90 yesterday. Coinbase rose nearly 40%. Investors don’t seem to know what to make of it. Stocks wandered around yesterday, like a Congressional candidate, with no clear idea of where they were going.
A Crescendo of Debt: But as we saw earlier this week, major trends get underway in confusion and contradiction. Mr. Market seems to make a point of keeping investors guessing. Years go by and they guess wrong about what is afoot. It is only after the fact that we see the long, broad strides of a primary trend.
Looking back on the last 42 years, you’d have to be blind to miss it. Paul Volcker tamed inflation. Interest rates fell from 1981 until 2020. Falling interest rates meant that you could refinance – your home, your business – every few years… borrow more and more… and still have lower monthly payments. Leveraged real estate speculators, for example, were able to refinance their holdings at higher prices and lower interest rates… over and over. This is what enabled the debt explosion. Federal debt in 1980 was less than 33% of GDP. Today it is 125% of GDP. Private debt followed a similar path, with total public and private debt in 1980 at 150% of GDP. Today, it is more than three times as much – around 350%.
The real crescendo of debt came during the last 10 years – when the Fed went hog wild with inflation-adjusted interest rates below zero, and trillions in giveaways. By the time it reached its climax, the Dow was 44 times higher than when it began in 1982… and total debt had risen from under $5 trillion in 1980 to nearly $90 trillion today.
It is obvious what was going on. The Fed was pumping in money. The tide raised almost all boats. And now?
Hell to Pay: The Fed is turning off the pumps… and even beginning to reverse the flow. Its QT program (quantitative tightening) will sop up liquidity, by allowing existing bonds, now in custody at the Fed, to expire. When they go, the money they represented will die. The Fed giveth; the Fed taketh away. And there will be Hell to pay.
As long as the Fed sticks with the anti-inflation program the primary trend should be roughly equal and opposite to the last 40 years. That is, asset prices, now high, should fall. Interest rates, now low, should rise. Does the Fed have the backbone to follow through? Won’t it get confused by the mixed signals… and bow to Elizabeth Warren, Donald Trump, Wall Street and other “low interest” activists? And won’t today’s trend come to an abrupt halt? Stay tuned…"
Must Watch! "The Unstable Economy Continues to Crater - Complete Meltdown"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 8/5/22:
"The Unstable Economy Continues to Crater -
Complete Meltdown"
We are getting warnings from around the globe. There are diesel shortages in Canada and the average Canadian has more debt than they ever had. It now costs the average family between $150 and $200 per week just to pay for the additional inflation of their lives. Elon musk is warning of a recession."
Comments here:
Jim Kunstler, "A Glance Ahead"
"A Glance Ahead"
Satan is the father of lies and we have become Satanic,
being and doing evil, most especially to ourselves…
by Jim Kunstler
"What’s ahead - like a few months down the road? Hysteria and chaos, if the “Joe Biden” regime can help it… and they’re helping it all they can. Twice vaxxed, twice boosted, and twice recent Covid-19 patient Dr. Anthony Fauci warned this week that the unvaxxed would “get into trouble” as the seasons turn this year. The part he left out is: the unvaxxed will be in trouble trying to keep up with helping their sick and dying vaccinated relatives whose immune systems have been damaged by their multiple vaxxes.
The boldness of Dr. Fauci’s lying is really something to behold. Who in the entire HHS-NIH-CDC bureaucracy has failed to notice that the mRNA “vaccines” have no efficacy whatever against Covid-19? The vaccinated are by far those still getting sick and increasingly disabled from the disease and even more from the vaxxes themselves. The emperor’s new clothes hang in shreds. Rumor is that many upper-level employees in these public health agencies are increasingly freaked out by their now-obvious complicity in a momentous crime. They know they will have to answer for allowing the mRNA fiasco to get this far, for going along to get along, and they’re preparing to mutiny to save their own asses. Wait for it.
The regime’s back-up plan is the comical monkeypox, transmitted to date mainly via all-male orgies. HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra declared a national monkeypox emergency this week, saying he’d “explore every option on the table” (except an official advisory against homosexual orgies). There is, of course, reasonable suspicion that monkeypox is but one device for shutting down the November mid-term election, or, more deviously, closing polling places and allowing only mail-in ballots - the easiest way to rig elections.
That will lead naturally to several state’s attorneys general seeking relief in the Supreme Court against the federal government’s unconstitutional takeover of the states’ duty to conduct their elections. The “Joe Biden” regime will lose that one, but not before royally pissing off at least half the adults in the land, leading to even greater-than-anticipated election losses for the Party of Chaos.
Meanwhile, the Party of Chaos is about to unleash its “Inflation Reduction Act,” which proposes to spend three quarters of a trillion dollars created from thin air into an economy already hyperventilating on three years of multi-trillion-dollar injections derived from no productive activity. At the same time, the act will raise taxes especially for low-end wage earners and small businesses, completing the regime’s destruction of the middle-class. The cherry-on-top is the provision to double the size of the Internal Revenue Service by hiring 87,000 new employees to harass ordinary American taxpayers. Is that what you voted for in 2020? I thought not.
None of that is going to work as intended. More likely, passage of the act will trigger destruction of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and a stampede out of dollar-denominated investments, which is to say, a very severe financial crisis. Credit will freeze, the distribution and sales of goods will cease, interest will stop being paid on virtually all outstanding debt, the bond market will implode, few will have anything identifiable as money, and there will be little in the way of everyday goods like food and gasoline to buy anyway.
You realize, of course, that this is a description of economic collapse. If things roll that way, there will be absolutely no trust left in the US government. It will be either ignored or opposed. And in places like my own New York, under the tyrannical and titanically incompetent accidental Governor Kathy Hochul, there will be no trust in state government either. Meaning, we’re on our own, community-by-community. This will be a very interesting experiment in the dynamics of emergence - the self-organizing properties of systems in chaos. I doubt that it will resolve in the direction of the globalists’ dreams of transhuman technocracy. Every macro trend now runs against centralization.
But the process could conceivably invite an attempted Chinese takeover of the USA, if not militarily, then in a way similar to America’s asset-stripping operations in the collapsed Soviet Union of the 1990s, a looting spree - as seen many other times in history when empires founder. Or else, the rest of the world will just kick back and witness the spectacle of our struggle as the lights of Western Civ flicker out. (Europe will be right in it with us, by the way.) The other nations of the world are tired of us trying to push them around, with increasingly evil intentions. They will enjoy watching our tribulations. They will be convinced we deserve it.
This is what comes from a culture of immersive and pervasive dishonesty. Satan is the father of lies and we have become Satanic, being and doing evil, most especially to ourselves, whether you believe in a literal Satan or not. So, do you think now that being transgressive is… fun? You’ll be changing what’s left of your mind about that soon. Along with the threat of literal starvation will also arise a terrible hunger for truth: How did this happen? How did we come to do this? Who was behind it? It won’t be hard to find out, once we’re motivated to look."
Gregory Mannarino, "Alert! The 10-Year Yield Is Spiking Again! If This Continues Expect Stocks To Crater!"
Gregory Mannarino, AM 4/5/22:
"Alert! The 10-Year Yield Is Spiking Again!
If This Continues Expect Stocks To Crater!"
Comments here:
"Why Is Walmart Laying Off So Many Workers?"
"Why Is Walmart Laying Off So Many Workers?"
by Michael Snyder
"If brighter days are eventually coming for the U.S. economy, why would Walmart be so eager to lay off corporate employees? Of course the truth is that brighter days are not coming. Yesterday, I posted an article in which I listed 11 big companies that are laying off workers. After I completed that article, I discovered that Walmart is also letting people go. If a seemingly unshakable giant such as Walmart already feels compelled to eliminate jobs, what is the outlook for employees of companies that are far smaller and far weaker?
When Walmart announced that it would be laying off nearly 200 corporate employees, it rapidly made headlines all over the nation…"Walmart let go of almost 200 corporate employees on Wednesday amid the economic downturn and rising inflation, according to a person familiar with the development. The company said in a statement that these layoffs are a part of updating its structure."
Yes, they are “updating their structure” because they know that really hard times are coming. And the projections that the company recently released confirm this…"Walmart said it now anticipates adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter and full year to decline around 8–9 percent and 11–13 percent, respectively. Previously, the retailer had predicted a 1 percent fall it had previously forecast for the full year.
“Food inflation is double digits and higher than at the end of the first quarter. This is affecting customers’ ability to spend on general merchandise categories and requiring more markdowns to move through the inventory, particularly apparel,” Walmart said."
I also just learned that SoundCloud has decided to lay off “approximately 20% of its global workforce”…"SoundCloud will be laying off approximately 20% of its global workforce citing “a significant company transformation” and the current economic and financial landscape. “During this difficult time, we are focused on providing the support and resources to those transitioning while reinforcing our commitment to executing our mission to lead what’s next in music,” reads a statement by a rep for SoundCloud.
Just like in 2008, the pace of layoffs is beginning to accelerate at a pace that is absolutely breathtaking. If you missed my article from yesterday that contained many more examples, you can find it right here: “It’s Happening: Here Is A List Of 11 Big Companies That Have Announced Layoffs Within The Last 2 Weeks”.
As more Americans lose their jobs, the number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits will continue to go up. In fact, the number for last week was up to 260,000…"The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits edged higher last week, hovering near the highest level of the year - the latest sign that the historically tight labor market is starting to cool off. Figures released Thursday by the Labor Department show that applications for the week ended July 30 rose to 260,000 from the downwardly revised 254,000 recorded a week earlier. That is above the 2019 pre-pandemic average of 218,000 claims and just narrowly missed topping the eight-month high of 261,000 recorded in mid-July."
Meanwhile, inflation continues to spiral out of control and that is causing immense hardship for millions of American families. According to Zero Hedge, the Misery Index in the United States just hit the highest level since 2011…"Although the White House seems to believe that things are pretty OK, the US’s misery index suggests they’re not. June’s misery index (a composite of unemployment and CPI inflation) has risen to 12.5. That’s the highest since September 2011 when the US economy was experiencing a time of very weak job growth and economic growth following the Great Recession. At the time, the yield curve almost inverted, and there were fears of a new recession. June’s misery index is also above the index from the 2007-2009 recession when the index peaked at 11.4 percent."
So many people are hurting out there right now. Many Americans are working as hard as they can, but it still isn’t enough to pay the bills because inflation has been absolutely eviscerating our standard of living. As a result, more people are falling out of the middle class and into poverty with each passing day.
The lines at our food banks are getting longer and longer, and many of those that are now showing up for assistance were once solidly part of the middle class. Here is one example…"The first time Kelly Wilcox drove her 2017 Dodge Grand Caravan to the food pantry near her home in Payson, Utah, she immediately noticed one thing that surprised her: new models of Toyota and Honda sedans and minivans. “I saw a bunch of other people with cars like me who had kids in their cars,” she said.
The mother of four young sons didn’t know what to expect when she made an early visit to Tabitha’s Way Local Food Pantry this spring. She knew that she needed help. Her husband had lost his job. He soon found a new job as an account manager, but that wasn’t enough with inflation."
Can you identify with Kelly Wilcox? When I was growing up, I lived in a middle class neighborhood and I went to a very large school that was packed with middle class kids. At that time, I can’t remember encountering a single family that was truly impoverished. But these days it seems like almost everyone is struggling. For years I have been writing about the disappearance of the middle class. Now we have gotten to a point where the gap between the ultra-wealthy and the rest of us is greater than ever.
One recent survey found that nearly half of the country has cut back spending on food because the cost of living has become so oppressive. That is frightening. But the pain that we are currently experiencing is just the tip of the iceberg. As I have been warning for a long time, much worse is ahead. So please try to enjoy this summer while you still can. Compared to what is eventually coming, the middle of 2022 is actually a time of rip-roaring prosperity."
○
Related:
"Strange Prices At Walmart! This Is Absolutely Ridiculous!"
Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 8/5/22:
"Strange Prices At Walmart! This Is Absolutely Ridiculous!"
"In today's vlog we are at Walmart and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:
"The Only Final Sin..."
"In a closed society where everybody's guilty, the only crime is
getting caught. In a world of thieves, the only final sin is stupidity."
- Hunter S. Thompson
Greg Hunter, "Weekly News Wrap 8/5/22"
"Weekly News Wrap 8/5/22"
Dem Desperation, Dem Voter Fraud, Dem Depression
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
"The Democrats in the White House look desperate with the actions they are taking because they do not make sense in a normal sane world. The Biden/Obama Administration is declaring Monkeypox a huge heath problem when, in fact, it is only affecting a very small percent of the U.S. population. It’s less than 7,000 people who are infected. I guess the Biden Administration wants to release more funding for the next so-called pandemic, but the public is not buying it this time around.
The primaries have happened in many parts of the country, and we are still seeing voter fraud on a grand scale. The Democrats have a terrible President with a terrible message and a sinking economy. It all adds up to massive cheating because the Dems can’t find enough stupid people to vote for their own demise. Without massive cheating, the Dems will be out of power come November. Can they pull off the biggest cheat ever? That is what it is going to take.
The Fed just raised interest rates another .75% and so did other countries such as the UK. It raised interest rates and is projecting a severe recession. It is also predicting 13% inflation by the end of this year. The Fed is signaling it, too, will be raising rates more in the upcoming months to fight inflation even if it tanks the economy further. The Dems already own the coming downturn, and many experts say this may turn into a Dem Depression. There is much more news in the 37-minute presentation."
Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he talks about
these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 8/5/22:
Thursday, August 4, 2022
Must Watch! Canadian Prepper, "This Is Unreal, The Riots Have Started! God Help Us..."
Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 8/4/22:
"This Is Unreal, The Riots Have Started! God Help Us..."
"I'm not religious but all I can say in response to today's news is... God help us."
Comments here:
"15 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is Poised To Crash Really Hard During The Second Half Of 2022"
Full screen recommended.
"15 Signs That The U.S. Economy Is Poised To
Crash Really Hard During The Second Half Of 2022"
by Epic Economist
"Things weren’t exactly great during the first half of 2022. But there are many pieces of evidence showing that conditions are going to be far worse during the second half of the year. Millions of businesses are falling into a financial abyss as their operational costs continue to climb. At the same time, the housing bubble has already burst and a catastrophic crash has begun. From coast to coast, the number of layoffs is on the rise, and economic activity is really slowing down all around us. Those who are thinking that things can’t get any worse are about to get bitterly surprised by the economic downturn that has just started.
Right now, even big corporations and tech giants are extremely concerned about what is coming. For years, nothing could seem to crush the relentless optimism of the big tech companies, and their stocks soared to absolutely absurd Heights since the onset of the health crisis. But now everything has changed as we head into the second half of this year. According to the Washington Post, “Big Tech is bracing for a ravaging economic recession and an uncertain future. That, in turn, is triggering more economic angst. The biggest tech firms, most of whom report quarterly earnings next week, have offered recent hints they are hunkering down. News of layoffs and hiring slowdowns have become commonplace across Silicon Valley. Start-ups are saying capital is drying up. Workers are being put on notice that businesses are changing.”
It’s not often that we see such pessimism coming from Silicon Valley.Surprisingly, even the White House is admitting that the economy is slowing down, but Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen insists that what we are experiencing is quite “appropriate” for a “healthy economy”. Last weekend, Yellen acknowledged that the U.S. is going through an economic downturn but downplayed the potential for a severe recession, arguing that the country is in a period of “transition” following rapid economic growth. “The economy is slowing down,” Yellen said in an interview with NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” adding that a correction is “appropriate” for a healthy economy.
People can believe her if they want to. But we have to remember that she also told us that inflation would be “transitory”, and now we can clearly see how that prediction turned out. Even though we are still only in the early stages of this new recession, food insecurity is already rising all over the country, and lines are getting really long at food banks in several states. The cost of living continues to hit unprecedented heights, and this is impacting working poor Americans harder than anyone. Over the new few months, we should expect to see a tidal wave of layoffs, sharp declines in housing prices, hordes of small businesses going under, and an enormous spike in the number of bankruptcies.
It goes without saying that all of this will not be good for the financial markets either. The stage is definitely set for the sort of historic economic meltdown that several economists have been warning about for a long time, and the economic despair that our society will experience will be extremely severe. That’s why today, we decided to compile several numbers that prove that a lot more pain is coming as we enter another historic recession."
Comments here:
Gerald Celente, "Trends In The News 8/4/22"
Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente,
"Trends In The News 8/4/22"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."
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