Monday, June 27, 2022

“Parasitic Derivatives: $1.5 – 2.4 Quadrillion Dollars, Too Big to Understand"

“Parasitic Derivatives: $1.5 – 2.4 Quadrillion Dollars,
 Too Big to Understand
By David Hague

“I recently returned from two weeks of ‘high level’ meetings with a group of Bankers [this is code for two weeks of subsidized debauchery with bankers] in Rome. As I sat at my desk, I was hoping to motivate myself to pursue a more chaste and pure existence. Unfortunately the Polar Vortex experienced by North America drained me of my good intentions. The bone chilling cold once again had me reaching for my trusty bottle of Jack Daniels for warmth and inspiration. My time in Rome had not been completely ‘wasted’, so to speak. I had secured a contract from the European Central Bank [ECB] to research the topic of Derivatives. I was to present my findings at the upcoming World Economic Forum in Davos later that month.

One Quadrillion Dollars: Too Big to Understand: Dear Reader, please resist your natural instinct to click away from this commentary at the mere mention of the word ‘Derivatives’. I am acutely aware of the boredom and befuddlement that this word instills in you. At this point I would simply remind you that the derivatives market is estimated to exceed one quadrillion dollars. [This incredibly large number is actually an accurate estimate of the size of the derivatives marketplace]. (In addition, unfunded liabilities, like medical care and pensions, are at least $300 trillion globally. If we add gross derivatives of $1.5 quadrillion, which are likely to turn into real debt as counterparties fail, the total debt and liabilities are above $2 quadrillion. Source - CP) Despite the fact the derivatives market eclipses the market capitalization of the NYSE by an exponential factor, it is not discussed, reported or tracked because it is simply too complicated and opaque. Warren Buffet’s, comment about ‘weapons of mass financial destruction’ seem to be the beginning and end of any discussion on the topic.

Derivatives are a parasitic financial instrument: For those of you who are unschooled on the topic of derivatives, allow me to explain. Derivatives are abstract financial instruments, which, like parasites, can attach themselves to all manner of stocks, bonds, mortgages, commodity, debt obligations, currency exchange, interest rate fluctuations… in short, anything. Derivatives exist in the ‘twilight zone’ of the banking industry. Like black holes, their presence and massive influence are acknowledged yet the true influence on the global economy of this quadrillion dollar ‘event horizon’ is only theoretical. The near catastrophic disasters at Barings, JP Morgan and AIG are small examples of their destructive powers. However I will offer you Investorpedia’s more clinical definition. “A security whose price is dependent upon or derived from one or more underlying assets. The derivative itself is merely a contract between two or more parties.”

You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, {Kenny Rogers}: One might think of derivatives as a random game of online poker: you don’t know who your opponents are [your counterparty], you do not know if you will be paid [counterparty risk], you do not know if the game is legitimate, [lack of regulation], and your opponents are probably able to see what cards you are holding, [market domination by large banks]. As well, you are making bets that in many instances neither you nor your opponents fully grasp [complexity of the market]. With each wager you are potentially risking not only your current assets, but your future assets as well. [Leverage]. In some cases you do not know how much you are betting. Imagine as well, that you play this game every day with trillions of dollars that you do not have. This is the global derivatives market.

It is all Greek to me: Alternately, as derivatives are often created as a form of insurance, think of them as an insurance policy in which you:
• Do not know the name, address or any contact information relating to your insurer.
• Do not know if your insurer has the resources to pay a claim.
• Do not understand the insurance contract as it is written in Greek.
• Must rely on a shadowy third party [ISDA] to decide what constitutes a claim. [Credit event]
• Do not know whether your insurer is itself vulnerable to the particular risk you have contracted with it to insure.

His moral lassitude allowed him to excel: Dear Reader, I digress, let me return to my narrative. The aforementioned lucrative contract was secured by two key factors. The first factor was my friendship with Gustavo Laframboise-Pierre, the European Central Bank’s [ECB] Global Director of Statistical Creation. My relationship with such an esteemed member of the ECB traced its roots back to Gustavo’s days as a bookie for Wall Street’s elite. I referred so much business to him we became very good friends. His station in life took a remarkable turn when a senior member of the ECB, while in New York on a ‘fact finding mission’ [this is code for visiting his favorite escort] made an outrageously large and incorrect wager on the outcome of the 2010 World Cup. (Perhaps unsurprisingly, the term ‘derivative’ is commonly used in sports betting!) The only way the debt could be settled was for the banker to offer Gustavo a highly paid sinecure at the ECB. Gustavo became the Global Director of Statistical Creation with the responsibility of making up statistics to support whatever fantastical and deranged policies Central Banks around the world were initiating. Remarkably Gustavo’s aptitude for numbers, coupled with his moral lassitude allowed him to excel at his job. It was Gustavo who invented the term ‘Quantitative Easing’ as a benign euphemism for runaway money printing.

Where ignorance is bliss, ‘tis folly to be wise’: The second factor that secured the contract for me was a chance remark I made as Gustavo and I enjoyed a ‘working lunch’, with several senior executives who represented many of the world’s largest banks. The working lunch was held at Rome’s exclusive Blue Moon Gentleman’s Club. As the featured dancer left the stage I happened to mention to the assorted luminaries that I had read an article on the subject of derivatives. The bankers looked at me with something akin to awe and reverence. Gustavo whispered to me that the topic of derivatives had been discussed in a recent conference call by the world’s bankers. The conclusion reached at that time was that derivatives were too boring and too complicated for bankers to grasp. Despite JP Morgan’s very public, expensive and monumentally stupid 5 billon dollar derivatives trading loss bankers still choose to remain cocooned in a ‘Cloak of Ignorance’ as it relates to derivatives. Thomas Gray’s lament that ‘where ignorance is bliss, ’tis folly to be wise’ could easily be the mission statement of the global banking industry.

I had read a complete article, I was a ‘de facto expert’: Dear reader, I am not being rude and offensive in my remarks about JP Morgan. Surely you would agree with me that any large bank that loses $5 billion in derivatives trading is ignorant of the properties and risks of derivatives? The fact that I had actually read a complete article on the subject made me a de facto expert on the topic. Gustavo, in an act of kindness, seized the opportunity on my behalf and pressed his colleagues to retain me to research the topic and make a presentation at the upcoming World Economic Forum in Davos. Thus I found myself preparing to dazzle the world’s financial elite with my insights into the risks and opportunities presented by the global derivatives market. In a rush to complete the deal before the next dancer took the stage it was agreed that I would receive the standard banker’s honorarium of $5,000/hour up to a maximum of ‘whatever it takes’.

At $5,000/hr., you would surely not expect me to be brief: I sat at my desk, sipping ‘Gentleman Jack‘ while I looked out at the bleak weather that made Brooklyn so depressing in the winter. My TV was tuned to CNBC, as I waited for Wall Street to open. I put my crack pipe in its case. Dear reader like many of you [especially those of you who work in the banking industry], I have learned all too well, the dangers of mixing crack cocaine with whiskey on an empty stomach. [Have we not all indulged, to our regret, that particular venial sin at least once?] I collected my thoughts and began to write my lengthy tome on the derivatives market. Dear reader at $5,000/hr., you would surely not expect me to be brief.

Lions and Tigers and Bears [and derivatives] Oh My!: I do not want to frighten you. However I will share with you some facts about derivatives that will have you reacting as nervously as Dorothy did in the Wizard of OZ when confronted with the thought of Lions and Tigers and Bears. ‘Derivatives, Oh My’, will I suspect be the words that escape your lips.
• Size of the derivatives market: 1.5 – 2.4 QUADRILLION dollars
• Size of Global Stock and bond markets: 175 trillion dollars
• Who regulates the Derivatives market? LOL, Regulation is a ‘work in progress’ dominated by the big banks.

How dangerous are derivatives? They almost destroyed the world’s largest insurance company, AIG, as well as the global economy. Seriously, you don’t remember? Just Google the words AIG and collapse. Alternately you might call Jamie Dimon at JP Morgan and ask him if Derivatives are dangerous. Have recent regulatory changes made the world economy less likely to implode from a derivative fuelled explosion? Actually as one might expect, thanks to regulatory enhancements that had to run the gauntlet of bank lobbyists prior to their approval, the world’s economy is in more danger than ever from a derivatives inspired meltdown.

‘Duck Dynasty’ and ‘Real Housewives’ to the rescue: How much attention does the Main Street pay to the world’s largest and riskiest casino? [AKA: the Derivatives market]. If one were to Google the word derivatives, one will get 34 million ‘hits’. Alternately, if one does a similar search for the words stocks bonds and markets one will get 400 million ‘hits’. The 34 million ‘hits’ generated by a Google search of the word derivatives compares unfavorably with the 37 million ‘hits’ generated by a search of the term ‘Real Housewives of Atlanta’, the 209 million ‘hits’ generated by a search of the term ‘Duck Dynasty’ or the 713 million ‘hits’ generated by searching the word ‘Sex’. One must conclude that only when derivatives are discussed by one of the ‘Real Housewives of Atlanta’ posing nude in bed with one of the cast members of ‘Duck Dynasty’ will derivatives receive the attention they deserve.

Reality bites: Derivatives can only be discussed as ‘Fake News’: Where can one find insights and coverage of the Derivatives Market in the mainstream media? Is Fox News or CNN my best choice? Sadly Dear reader your best choice would have been The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. Despite the calamitous risk and obvious importance of this topic only Mr. Stewart and his team dared to share information with the general public. Given the outlandish and frightening risks derivatives constitute to the Global Economy, perhaps Mr. Stewart was correct that it can only be discussed in the ‘Fake News’ format.


Derivatives: better suited for Ripley’s Believe it or not than the Wall Street Journal: How bizarre is the derivatives market? How is the concept of money for nothing propagated by the derivatives market? What is the difference between a chump and a champion in the derivatives market? I will leave it to Shah Gilani in his excellent post in “Wall Street: Insights and Indictments“ to explain. Suffice to say that one is able to buy insurance in the derivatives market. One can then cause the insured event to occur by collaborating with a third party. All that remains is to collect the insurance proceeds. [To be clear the proceeds are usually in the tens of millions of dollars.] The derivatives market makes the Ponzi-like money printing of the Central banks look like ‘Amateur Hour’.

Who needs ‘Crack’? Dear reader, usually I needed a little help from my friend Mr. Crack to feel as paranoid and euphoric as I did at this moment. Paranoid, because it was clear to me that the derivatives market was truly a weapon of mass financial destruction. Euphoric because I knew that my research would make my ‘Derivatives’ presentation at the World Economic Forum a groundbreaking ‘tour de force’ that would vault me to the forefront of ‘talking heads’ that pass for experts on mainstream media. Fame, fortune, a book deal and perhaps that elusive Nobel Prize would surely follow. My twenty minutes of painstaking research, had made me one of the world’s foremost experts on this complex subject. [BTW Dear Reader by reaching this point in my commentary, you surely now know more about derivatives than most bankers and traders on Wall Street. You should be quite pleased.]

David, you are an imbecile: I decided to reach out to my pal Gustavo and share some of my findings. I knew that it was 3:30 in the afternoon in Paris so I would be able to catch Gustavo just as he arrived for another day of work. “Gustavo”, I intoned, breathless with excitement. “I have uncovered some startling, controversial, and frightening information about derivatives. The luminaries and leading lights who attend my presentation in Davos will be utterly gobsmacked by my revelations. The media will undoubtedly ensure that my findings go viral. The topic of derivatives will no longer exist only in the dark shadows of the banking industry. The danger that derivatives pose to the global economy will permeate the consciousness of Main Street.” Gustavo sighed, “David, I do not know if you are stupid or naïve. Every September when you bet $1,000 that the perennially atrocious Toronto Maple Leafs will win the Stanley Cup, I assumed you were simply ingenuous. Your comments today have convinced me that you are an imbecile. Let me assure you that those will not be the findings that you present at the World Economic Forum. Rather you will inform the world that derivatives are a financial instrument that is being used by brilliant and prudent financial professionals to mitigate risk and make the world a safer place.”

The ‘Truth Will Out’: “Gustavo”, I groaned, “that would be a lie. I cannot in good conscience, sacrifice my integrity, my honor, my core beliefs and my good name simply to placate Wall Street and the Central Banks. I have a responsibility to my readers on Main Street to inform them, to warn them, to prepare them for the likely financial chaos that derivatives will cause”. “Gustavo”, I said with iron willed determination, “the Truth Will Out”. “David”, Gustavo snarled, “If you change the tenor of your presentation and indicate that derivatives are the most benign form of financial instrument, somewhat akin to Treasury bills, we will double your fee”.

Move along nothing to see here: Dear Reader, in summary let me say that derivatives are the most benign form of financial instrument, somewhat akin to treasury bills. Gustavo’s immutable logic and persuasive argument was instrumental in helping me reach the correct conclusion regarding the risks to the Global economy posed by derivatives. So Dear Reader, move along, there is nothing to see here.”

"This Is What's Going To Happen In Next 15 Days: Taking $30 Trillion Out of the $85 Trillion Global Economy"

Full screen recommended.
Chamath Palihapitiya, 6/26/22:
"This Is What's Going To Happen In Next 15 Days:
Taking $30 Trillion Out of the $85 Trillion Global Economy"

"The global economy is heated up specifically after the free money injected by the governments during the pandemic outbreak. That free money has popped up the prices of commodities, assets and everything traded in the economy. The Russia-Uterine War has made the situation worse. Consequently, the over-heated global economy is on the verge of a recession. US reported the 40 years highest inflation. And to counter the surging inflation Fed has announced a 75-basis point interest rate hikes. Now the international institutions are ringing the alarms of economic slowdown. IMF also cut down the global growth outlook again. 

On these concerns and fears Chamath Palihapitiya appeared in All-In-Podcast with David Sachs. Chamath is of the view that this is the beginning of what we were warning before, and after the Fed’s rates hikes if anybody thinks that the economic situation would be normal in days or weeks or even in next 6 months, that is not true. He thinks that bubbly asset prices would calm down to their actual level in next 18 to 36 months. Chamath has also criticized the modern monetary theory where some of the economists think that the they would keep the economy smooth by printing and injecting the money into the economy. And they haven’t seen the result of money printing during the pandemic outbreak then they are ignoring the reality intentionally. David Sachs agreed with Chamath’s point of view that the worst is not going to end soon rather it will take years to get it normalized. David pointed out the housing prices which have surpassed the historic highs and are making the economic situation worse."
"Wealth Destruction Of 90% Is Next" (Excerpt)
by Egon Von Greyerz
Excerpt: "The Dow to fall 90% in real terms: Very few people realize the enormous wealth transfer that will take place in the next 5 years. Most will lose 75-90% of their wealth and some 100%. In 1929 the Dow peaked at 400 and then collapsed to 40 in 1932. This 90% fall occurred at a point when economic conditions in the US and globally were a lot more benign then they are today. Since 1981 the Dow has gone up 22x. With the world experiencing a historical asset and credit bubble of unprecedented proportions, an implosion of debt could easily see the Dow down 90% like in 1929-32 or probably even 95% to get back to the 850 level where this bull market started. This would mean a fall of 95% in real terms. 

I say real terms because it is not unlikely that we will see the biggest money printing experiment in history with central banks worldwide printing trillions or even quadrillions of dollars in a futile attempt to save the financial system and the world economy. This massive money printing could lead to the Dow reaching much higher levels in nominal or hyperinflationary terms."
Please view complete article here:

"The Coming Famine We Predicted Two Years Ago Is Here: How Bad Will the Food Shortage Get?" (Excerpt)

"The Coming Famine We Predicted Two Years Ago Is Here: 
How Bad Will the Food Shortage Get?"
by Dr. Joseph Mercola

Excerpt: "May 2020, I, along with other experts, predicted that food disruptions and even famine could follow the COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, that prediction appears to be coming true, as food shortages and sky-high prices will become a long-term thing by this fall. Don't panic, just prepare.

Story At-A-Glance:
• It’s becoming increasingly clear that severe food shortages are going to be inevitable, more or less worldwide, and whatever food is available will continue to go up in price.

• The cost of agricultural inputs such as diesel and fertilizers is skyrocketing due to shortages - caused by a combination of intentional and coincidental events - and those costs will be reflected in consumer food prices come fall and next year

• Mysterious fires, alleged bird flu outbreaks and other inexplicable events are killing off livestock and destroying crucial infrastructure. Since the end of April 2021, at least 96 farms, food processing plants and food distribution centers across the U.S. have been damaged or destroyed

• The global food price index had risen 58.5% above the 2014-2016 average as of April 2022, due to a convergence of post-pandemic global demand, extreme weather, tightening food stocks, high energy prices, supply chain bottlenecks, export restrictions, taxes and the Russia-Ukraine conflict

• Combined, all of these factors set us up for guaranteed food shortages, food inflation and, potentially, famine in some places, so now is the time to prepare."
Please view complete article here:

"Massive Price Increases Everywhere! Time To Get Creative!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 6/27/22:
"Massive Price Increases Everywhere! Time To Get Creative!"
"In today's vlog we are noticing massive price increases all over the country! We are here to discuss skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
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Sunday, June 26, 2022

"Bank Runs In China! Millions Rush To Get Their Money Out Of The System As Cash Shortage Begins"

Full screen recommended.
"Bank Runs In China! Millions Rush To Get Their 
Money Out Of The System As Cash Shortage Begins"
by Epic Economist

"China’s banking sector is in a total and complete mess right now. Millions of Chinese citizens are desperately rushing to get their money out of the system as fears of a bank collapse continue to rise. New reports are warning that bank runs are sparking unprecedented chaos all across the country, given that many savers just discovered that they are at risk of losing everything. The country’s growing economic and financial instability is threatening to trigger a ripple effect all across the planet, making global financial markets edge closer to a massive meltdown. That ultimately means that not only the Chinese could be financially wiped out overnight - the whole world is actually moving towards another historic downturn, and as bubbles burst and markets crash, we're all in danger at this point.

Since the start of 2022, a series of Chinese banks have suspended cash withdrawals without giving any explanation to their customers, raising fears that a much bigger financial problem could be looming as the nation’s real estate sector crashes and the rate of loan delinquencies continues to soar. There is no official data reporting the total amount of funds that bank depositors are unable to withdraw yet, but experts estimate that hundreds of billions of yuan are being withheld. The latest numbers showed that in April alone, over 400,000 banking customers across China were unable to access their savings.

Of course, in a nation of over 1.4 billion people, that’s a drop in the ocean of the Chinese vast banking system. However, experts say that what is exposed could only be the tip of the iceberg. Since late last week, bank runs have started to accelerate all over China. While millions of Chinese people remain unable to access their bank deposits since January, many others are rushing to get their money out of the system as soon as possible, but most of them are having difficulties when trying to withdraw cash from their bank accounts.

Local reports expose that “some banks will only serve a limited number of customers per day, some banks limit each client’s withdrawal to no more than 1,000 yuan and others closed their branches. Even the ATM machines are empty”. According to Hao, a resident in Longgang district in Shenzhen, freezing accounts is a method banks use to stop people from withdrawing cash.

China's gigantic real estate sector, which accounts for as much as 30% of its GDP, is facing a devastating crash ever since the country’s biggest property developer, Evergrande, became insolvent. Right now, global financial markets are on edge as the world’s largest economies face the burst of housing bubbles while stock markets crash. The meltdown of the Chinese banking sector can cause a domino effect of systemic failures and a credit crunch, increasing the possibility of a global financial crisis in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Even though many Americans may think that what’s going on in China will never occur in the U.S. since China’s main banks are state-owned, according to the financial expert and best-selling author, Robert Kiyosaki, that possibility is not so far removed. Millions of American families are at risk of seeing their savings disappearing overnight due to their accounts’ high exposure to asset bubbles and soaring inflation, he alerted. In other words, as social and economic disorder continues to spread across the planet, soon, we could be the ones seeing our savings suddenly vanishing from the system."
Comments here:

“US On Collision Course With A Severe Depression; Credit Card Debt Will Cost You; Renters At Risk”

Jeremiah Babe, 6/26/22:
“US On Collision Course With A Severe Depression; 
Credit Card Debt Will Cost You; Renters At Risk”

Musical Interlude: Era, “Infinity Ocean”

Full screen recommended.
Era, “Infinity Ocean”

"A Look to the Heavens"

“In one of the brightest parts of Milky Way lies a nebula where some of the oddest things occur. NGC 3372, known as the Great Nebula in Carina, is home to massive stars and changing nebulas. The Keyhole Nebula (NGC 3324), the bright structure just above the image center, houses several of these massive stars and has itself changed its appearance.
The entire Carina Nebula spans over 300 light years and lies about 7,500 light-years away in the constellation of Carina. Eta Carinae, the most energetic star in the nebula, was one of the brightest stars in the sky in the 1830s, but then faded dramatically. Eta Carinae is the brightest star near the image center, just left of the Keyhole Nebula. While Eta Carinae itself may be on the verge of a supernova explosion, X-ray images indicate that much of the Great Carina Nebula has been a veritable supernova factory.”

"The Last Time Always Happens Now"

"The Last Time Always Happens Now"
by David Cain

"William Irvine, an author and philosophy professor I’m a big fan of, often tries to point people towards a little-discussed fact of human life: "You always know when you’re doing something for the first time, and you almost never know when you’re doing something for the last time."

There was, or will be, a last time for everything you do, from climbing a tree to changing a diaper, and living with a practiced awareness of that fact can make even the most routine day feel like it’s bursting with blessings. Of all the lasting takeaways from my periodic dives into Stoicism, this is the one that has enhanced my life the most. I’ve touched on it before in my Stoicism experiment log and in a Patreon post, and I intend to write about it many more times in the future (but who can say?)

To explain why someone might want to start thinking seriously about last times, Bill Irvine asks us to imagine a rare but relatable event: going to your favorite restaurant one last time, knowing it’s about to close up for good.

Predictably, dining on this last-ever night makes for a much richer experience than almost all the other times you’ve eaten at that restaurant, but it’s not because the food, decor, or service is any different than usual. It’s better because you know it’s the last time, so you’re apt to savor everything you can about it, right down to the worn menus and tacky napkin rings. You’re unlikely to let any mistakes or imperfections bother you, and in fact you might find them endearing.

It becomes clearer than ever, in other words, how great it was while it lasted, and how little the petty stuff mattered. On that last dinner, you can set aside minor issues with ease, and appreciate even the most mundane details. Anything else would seem foolish, because you’re here now, and this is it. It might even occur to you that there’s no reason you couldn’t have enjoyed it this much every time you dined here – except that all the other times, you knew there would be more times, so you didn’t have to be so intentional about appreciating it.

That’s an exceptionally rare situation though. Almost always, we do things for the last time without knowing it’s the last time. There was a last time – on an actual calendar date – when you drew a picture with crayons purely for your own pleasure. A last time you excitedly popped a Blockbuster rental into your VCR. A last time you played fetch with a certain dog. Whenever the last time happened, it was “now” at the time.

You’ve certainly heard the heart-wrenching insight that there’s always a last time a parent picks up their child. By a certain age the child is too big, which means there’s always an ordinary day when the parent picks up and puts down their child as they have a thousand times before, with no awareness that it was the last time they would do it.

Ultimately there will be as many last times as there were first times. There will be last time you do laundry. A last time you eat pie. A last time you visit a favorite neighborhood, city, or country. For every single friend you’ve ever had, there will be a last time you talk, or maybe there already has been.

For ninety-nine percent of these last times, you will have no idea that that’s what it is. It will seem like another of the many middle times, with a lot more to come. If you knew it was the last-ever time you spoke to a certain person or did a certain activity, you’d probably make a point of appreciating it, like a planned last visit to Salvatore’s Pizzeria. You wouldn’t spend it thinking about something else, or let minor annoyances spoil it.

Many last times are still a long way in the future, of course. The trouble is you don’t know which ones. The solution, Irvine suggests, is to frequently imagine that this is the last time, even when it’s probably not. A few times a day, whatever you’re doing, you assume you’re doing that thing for the last time. There will be a last time you sip coffee, like you’re doing now. What if this sip was it? There will be a last time you walk into the office and say hi to Sally. If this was it, you might be a little more genuine, a little more present.

The point isn’t to make life into a series of desperate goodbyes. You can go ahead and do the thing more or less normally. You might find, though, that when you frame it as a potential last time, you pay more attention to it, and you appreciate it for what it is in a way you normally don’t. It turns out that ordinary days are full of experiences you expect will keep happening forever, and of course none of them will.

It doesn’t matter if the activity is something you particularly love doing. Walking into a 7-11 or weeding the garden is just as worthy of last-time practice as hugging a loved one. Even stapling the corner of some pages together can generate a sense of appreciation, if you saw it as your final act of stapling in a life that’s contained a surprising amount of stapling.

Irvine uses mowing the lawn as an example, a task he doesn’t love doing. If you imagine that this is the last time you’ll mow the lawn, rather than consider it a good riddance, you might realize that there will be a time when you’ve mown your last lawn, and that there were a lot of great things about living in your lawn-mowing, bungalow-maintaining heyday. A few seconds later, it dawns on you that you still are.

You can get very specific with the experiences you do this with. The last time you roll cookie dough between your palms. The last time you get rained on. The last time you sidestep down a crowded cinema aisle. The last time your jeans smell like campfire smoke. The last time your daughter says “swannich” instead of “sandwich.” Virtually everything is a worthy candidate for this reflection.

It always brings perspective to your life as it is now, and it never gets old. It’s an immensely rewarding exercise, but it not a laborious one. It takes only two or three seconds - allowing yourself “a flickering thought,” as Irvine put it - to notice what you’re doing right now, and consider the possibility that this is indeed the last escalator ride at Fairfield Mall, the last time you put on a Beatles record, the last time you encounter a squirrel, or the last time you parallel park in front of Aunt Rita’s building."

"Streets of Philadelphia, June 26, 2022"

Full screen recommended.
SBC News Documentary,
"Streets of Philadelphia, June 26, 2022"

"Violent crime and drug abuse in Philadelphia as a whole is a major problem. The city’s violent crime rate is higher than the national average and other similarly sized metropolitan areas. Also alarming is Philadelphia’s drug overdose rate. The number of drug overdose deaths in the city increased by 50% from 2013 to 2015, with more than twice as many deaths from drug overdoses as deaths from homicides in 2015. A big part of Philadelphia’s problems stem from the crime rate and drug abuse in Kensington.

Because of the high number of drugs in Kensington, the neighborhood has a drug crime rate of 3.57, the third-highest rate by neighborhood in Philadelphia. Like a lot of the country, a big part of this issue is a result of the opioid epidemic. Opioid abuse has skyrocketed over the last two decades in the United States and Philadelphia is no exception. Along with having a high rate of drug overdose deaths, 80% percent of Philadelphia’s overdose deaths involved opioids and Kensington is a big contributor to this number. This Philly neighborhood is purportedly the largest open-air narcotics market for heroin on the East Coast with many neighboring residents flocking to the area for heroin and other opioids. With such a high number of drugs in Kensington, many state and local officials have zoned in on this area to try and tackle Philadelphia’s problem."
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The Daily "Near You?

Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. Thanks for stopping by!

Chet Raymo, “On Being Good”

“On Being Good”
by Chet Raymo

“Several years ago, I attended a seminar on the foundations of ethical systems. The participants quoted Plato, Jesus, Heidegger, and a host of other authorities; they trotted out every philosophical and theological reason why we can or should be good. Of course, prominent among the arguments was that old canard: Without the promise of eternal salvation or the threat of damnation, we would all be scoundrels.

No one mentioned that we are first of all biological creatures with an evolutionary history, and that altruism, aggression, fidelity, promiscuity, nurturing and violence might be part of our animal natures.

I looked around the auditorium and saw folks of every religious and philosophical persuasion, and of many cultural and ethnic backgrounds, and I thought, "Gee, I'd trust any one of these folks not to take my wallet in a dark alley." Sure, humans are capable of great evil, but most of us are pretty good most of the time, and I suspect that it has more to do with where we have been as a biological species than with where we hope to be going in some airy-fairy afterlife.

We are animals who have evolved the capacity to cherish our fellow humans and to resist for the common good our innate tendencies to aggression and selfishness, not because we have been plucked out of our animal selves by some sky hook from above, but because we have been nudged into reflective consciousness by evolution. When it comes to living in a civilized way on a crowded planet, I choose to put my faith in the long leash of the genes rather than fear of hellfire or the chance to walk on streets of gold.”

The Poet: John O’Donohue, “In These Times”

“In These Times”

“In these times when anger
Is turned into anxiety,
And someone has stolen
The horizons and mountains,
Our small emperors on parade
Never expect our indifference
To disturb their nakedness.
They keep their heads down,
And their eyes gleam with reflection
From aluminum economic ground,
The media wraps everything
In a cellophane of sound,
And the ghost surface of the virtual
Overlays the breathing earth.
The industry of distraction 
Makes us forget
That we live in a universe.
We have become converts 
To the religion of stress
And its deity of progress;
That we may have courage 
To turn aside from it all
And come to kneel down before the poor,
To discover what we must do,
How to turn anxiety
Back into anger,
How to find our way home.”

~ John O’Donohue,
from “To Bless the Space Between Us”
“Do not lose heart. We were made for these times.” 
– Clarissa Pinkola Estes

"What's He To Do Then?"

"You've seed how things goes in the world o' men. You've knowed men to be low-down and mean. You've seed ol' Death at his tricks... Ever' man wants life to be a fine thing, and a easy. 'Tis fine, boy, powerful fine, but 'tain't easy. Life knocks a man down and he gits up and it knocks him down agin. I've been uneasy all my life... I've wanted life to be easy for you. Easier'n 'twas for me. A man's heart aches, seein' his young uns face the world. Knowin' they got to get their guts tore out, the way his was tore. I wanted to spare you, long as I could. I wanted you to frolic with your yearlin'. I knowed the lonesomeness he eased for you. But ever' man's lonesome. What's he to do then? What's he to do when he gits knocked down? Why, take it for his share and go on.”
- Marjorie Kinnan Rawlings
"When I hear somebody sigh, 'Life is hard,' 
I am always tempted to ask, 'Compared to what?'" 
- Sydney J. Harris

'In Ordinary Times.."

"In ordinary times we get along surprisingly well, on the whole, without ever discovering what our faith really is. If, now and again, this remote and academic problem is so unmannerly as to thrust its way into our minds, there are plenty of things we can do to drive the intruder away. We can get the car out or go to a party or to the cinema or read a detective story or have a row with a district council or write a letter to the papers about the habits of the nightjar or Shakespeare's use of nautical metaphor. Thus we build up a defense mechanism against self-questioning because, to tell the truth, we are very much afraid of ourselves."
- Dorothy L. Sayers

"How It Really Is"

 

"Massive Price Increases At Walmart! This Is Crazy!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 6/26/22:
"Massive Price Increases At Walmart! This Is Crazy!"
Comments here:

Gregory Mannarino, "Situation Critical: Markets A Look Ahead"

Gregory Mannarino, 6/26/22:
"Situation Critical: Markets A Look Ahead"
- https://traderschoice.net/
Comments here:

Saturday, June 25, 2022

Canadian Prepper, "This is Gonna be Bad and They Know it!"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 6/25/22:
"This is Gonna be Bad and They Know it!"
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: Kevin Kern, "Above The Clouds"

Full screen recommended.
Kevin Kern, "Above The Clouds"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"Fans of our fair planet might recognize the outlines of these cosmic clouds. On the left, bright emission outlined by dark, obscuring dust lanes seems to trace a continental shape, lending the popular name North America Nebula to the emission region cataloged as NGC 7000. To the right, just off the North America Nebula's east coast, is IC 5070, whose avian profile suggests the Pelican Nebula. The two bright nebulae are about 1,500 light-years away, part of the same large and complex star forming region, almost as nearby as the better-known Orion Nebula. At that distance, the 3 degree wide field of view would span 80 light-years.
This careful cosmic portrait uses narrow band images combined to highlight the bright ionization fronts and the characteristic glow from atomic hydrogen, sulfur, and oxygen gas. These nebulae can be seen with binoculars from a dark location. Look northeast of bright star Deneb in the constellation Cygnus the Swan."

"In The Last Few Years..."

"In the last few years, the very idea of telling the truth, the whole truth,
and nothing but the truth is dredged up only as a final resort when the
alternative options of deception, threat and bribery have all been exhausted."
- Michael Musto

"Oh! What a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive"
- Sir Walter Scott, "Marmion"

"Banks Took a Stress Test - Should You Be Worried?"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 6/25/22:
"Banks Took a Stress Test - Should You Be Worried?"
"Ever since the financial crisis of 2008 the banks have to meet certain requirements for financial viability. Now they run a yearly test to see the soundness of these institutions. Recently 33 banks were put under these test here in the United States to see how they would fare against high unemployment, a stock market drop or other natural disaster."
Comments here:

The Daily "Near You?"

Fife Lake, Michigan, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"The Pretender's Dilemma"

"The Pretender's Dilemma"
by The Zman

"Critics of modern liberal democracy often repeat Juvenal's line about the populace being pacified with bread and circuses. In the modern usage it means the public is easily bought off with free stuff and mindless entertainment. While the average guy is watching television sports and adding to his waistline, he does not care that the political class is looting the country. Just as long as he has a steady stream of new products, he is happy to abandon his duties as a citizen.

Juvenal had a different meaning, as he was writing in the second century. He was criticizing the Roman political class for their lack of heroism and virtue. They cared more for holding office than tackling the challenges of the day. They would corrupt the people with free grain and elaborate public spectacles, if that is what it took to win favor and gain power. The ruling class was mortgaging the civic virtue of Rome in order to get short term profit from the political system.

Of course, the culture of liberal democracy forbids the idea of a ruling class, so the blame must always fall on the people for the problems with the rulers. After all, the people picked the office holders. If they are unhappy with the choices, they should find new ones that they prefer. The civic religion of liberal democracy is like a spell cast on even the most jaded. It prevents them from accepting that there is not a democratic solution to the inherent defects of liberal democracy.

The irony is the cynical will often quote de Maistre and say that the people get the government they deserve. This is ironic in several ways. One is that de Maistre was no fan of democracy or popular government. He also meant that a people, as in a biologically connected people, will get the ruling class that reflects their temperament and talents, regardless of the system. This is something that no modern liberal democratic could possibly accept and remain a liberal democrat.

Putting that aside, the problem with the Juvenal quote is that bread and circuses is the only peaceful and predictable solution to the large society problem. Bringing large numbers of people together under a single ruler, whether it is the farce of democracy or the force of a despot, goes against man's nature. Humans can only know and trust about 150 people at one time. Once a group breaks what is called the Dunbar number, no one person can know everyone well enough to trust them.

The solution long ago was a code, a set of rules for the group. A set of rules to govern relations between all people within the group solved this problem. The members did not have to trust one another or even know one another very well. They just had to trust that the rules made sense for the group and that the people enforcing the rules could be trusted to predictably enforce the rules. The proof of these two pillars of society would be the peace and prosperity of the group.

Of course, once you get to very large groups, like city-states and countries, you end up with lots of dissimilar people in the same society. A large group of related people will come with the habits of mind to make cooperation natural. Have a large diverse group of people and those habits of mind will inevitably conflict. This is the large society problem and we have just two solutions. One is a great mission to focus the public's attention and the other is bread and circuses.

The great mission or crusade, like a war, comes with an expiry date. You can rally the most diverse and uncooperating people against some crisis. In a war, for example, people put aside their grievances to fight the common enemy. Yankee New England dropped their secession drive, for example, because of the War of 1812. The trouble is, people tire of war and every crisis losses its sense of urgency. Even the communists figured this out eventually.

This is the fork in the road the American ruling class faces now. The pretender Biden also adds the complication of being seen as illegitimate by most people. Many of those people may be glad Trump is gone, at least for now, but they also know that Biden has no business on the throne. He is just a shuffling corpse, animated by players operating in the shadows. Like all pretenders, Biden will be limited by the fact that the rest of the ruling class is looking to exploit him, rather than support him.

Compounding his dilemma is that the people who engineered his ascent to the throne started a proxy war with Russia and and want to start a war with Iran. They also seek to impose the Chinese social model on Americans. Speech and movement will be sharply curtailed with the help of the corporate oligarchs. In other words, the new regime tilts heavily toward a holy crusade to rally the people, like a war against the virus and a war against Iran, rather than a new round of bread and circuses.

This is something that was overlooked in the Trump years. After eight years of the dreary preaching of Obama, Trump's antics were a relief. His style was not everyone's cup of tea, but he kept things lively. He also focused on the economy, which did rather well until the Covid panic. The stock market doubled in value during his time in office, which is something that matters a lot to people. In other words, Trump gave the people four years of bread and circuses.

Finally, the other dilemma for the Pretender Biden is that he will have Trump out there reminding people of how Biden got on the throne. In the old days, Biden's first order of business would be to have Trump assassinated. By removing the old ruler, there was no chance for him to return to power. That's unlikely to happen with Trump, although one cannot rule it out, so Biden will have to operate in the shadow of what many will view as the rightful President.

This is the dilemma facing the Pretender Biden. He cannot go for the bread and circuses route, as that would be a concession to the hated Trump. That means going along with the warmongers and scaremongers. The trouble there is that requires trust and exactly no one trusts a pretender. The only solution may be to forge ahead with a manufactured crisis like a war with Iran and the proxy war with Russia and hope the people are gullible enough to fall for it like they did in the Bush years."

"Grave Faults..."

"Only the following items should be considered to be grave faults: not respecting another's rights; allowing oneself to be paralyzed by fear; feeling guilty; believing that one does not deserve the good or ill that happens in one's life; being a coward. We will love our enemies, but not make alliances with them. They were placed in our path in order to test our sword, and we should, out of respect for them, struggle against them. We will choose our enemies."
- Paulo Coelho

"The Quest to Beat High Gas Prices"

"The Quest to Beat High Gas Prices"
by Lora Kelley

“I SOLD MY GIRLFRIENDS CAR CAUSE GAS PRICES ARE HIGH,” reads the caption on the video Justice Alexander posted online this spring. In the clip, Alexander, a content creator in Los Angeles, sits atop a horse and declares that he will now travel on horseback. The video, which has been viewed nearly 10 million times so far on TikTok, struck a nerve. While Alexander later said that it was a stunt - an Instagram follower lent him the horse and his household still drives - the sight of him in stirrups, staring defiantly off into the distance, captured a once-in-a-generation moment of angst. Gas prices are at record highs. Even when adjusting for inflation, they are on average at levels rarely seen in the past half-century.

Beyond posting absurd public displays of frustration, many Americans are grasping for ways to save money by changing work hours or by weighing the algebraic trade-offs of driving farther to find a cheaper pump. Some recognize they have few options to avoid paying more, especially when commuting is a matter of keeping a job or not, but others have been learning to make new trade-offs and crafty calculations. “It’s all about doing the math,” said Ava Patterson, a 25-year-old server at a seafood restaurant in East Peoria, Illinois.

When she notices her tank running low, Patterson gets out her phone and starts strategizing. Before she leaves her home about 30 minutes from work, she checks GasBuddy, an app that shows prices at nearby stations. She then calculates what the total price at a given station will be to fill her tank when she stacks one of her three gas rewards accounts on top of the listed price. Patterson also stops at pumps in small farming towns on her route, where gas tends to be a bit cheaper, she said, and reports rates to GasBuddy to earn points to be entered in a raffle for free fuel. All told, these workarounds can save her up to $2.30 per tank. These days, it generally costs her about $80 to completely fill her 2017 Hyundai Sonata.

Patterson has recently been trying hard to cut down on driving. She does not attend practices for her recreational softball league about an hour away. She has also been rethinking her work schedule. “I started doing more doubles because I want to make sure that it’s worthwhile to drive the distance to work,” Patterson said. “I’m a waitress, so the money that I make fluctuates. It’s made me hesitate on when I want to leave the house.”

According to a survey from AAA conducted earlier this year, 75% of American adults said they would start changing their lifestyles and habits when gas hit $5 a gallon. Andy Gross, a spokesperson for AAA, said demand for gas dipped the week of June 18 for the first time in three weeks, possibly because of increased prices. Those who didn’t drive much before, for environmental or lifestyle reasons, are cutting back further. But for the most part, people are still driving as much as they had been. For some, that has meant, paradoxically, driving farther to find cheaper places to fill up - even if it’s a matter of only saving a few dollars.

Tawaine Hall, 36, a network engineer in Fort Worth, Texas, said he has driven 45 minutes from his home to take advantage of gas prices that were around $1 less than those near where he lives. He said he also buys Walmart gift cards, which provide a discount at Walmart gas stations.

Jordan Rowe, 27, has driven 25 minutes out of his way to go to a station that accepts the Exxon Mobil rewards app that he downloaded this year, to earn points toward future purchases. An assistant general manager at a McDonald’s near Richmond, Virginia, he commutes about 45 minutes each day to work. He has started giving friends rides to work, as well.

In some cases, the high costs have given rise to carpooling and other shared commuting options. Jennifer Gebhard, executive director of the Central Indiana Regional Transportation Authority, said that during the pandemic, her team operated a fleet of 10 vans. Now, there are 30. “Especially in the Midwest, we’re a very drive-by-yourself community,” she said. But many local employers have reached out to her office about setting up van pools for their staffs in recent months. Passengers split the cost.

“A hack I would love to have is carpooling,” Alexa Lopez said. But she has not found a viable option near where she lives in Kissimmee, Florida. She has a long commute: 51 miles each day from her home to her job at a plumbing supply company in Melbourne, Florida. So to save money on gas, she has cut down on extracurricular driving, as well as some more essential activities.

Lopez, 30, used to make trips to the grocery store without thinking twice. Now, because of inflation and the high price of getting herself to the store, she goes only every two weeks. Previously, she said, she would buy “anything and everything,” including snacks like chips for her son. “I can’t really buy too much of those anymore.” She added, “I’m feeling like pretty much the average American right now: struggling.”

For the first time in years, some who had been doing relatively well are facing hard trade-offs. As the war in Ukraine and the pandemic continue to roil the economy, concerns are growing that the U.S. economy may be on the brink of a recession. People are moving to ease their commutes. Family visits are being minimized. Future savings are being funneled toward ballooning grocery prices. It has been a hard jolt.

Elizabeth Hjelvik, 26, a graduate student in materials science at the University of Colorado at Boulder, watches her budget closely. She recently started riding her bike to campus. She has also started working from home more often, using her parents’ Kroger fuel points to fill up the tank of her 2005 Honda and cutting back on spontaneous weekend trips. Hjelvik recalled saying, as she and her partner were recently driving back from a trip to Fort Collins, Colorado, about 50 miles away, “This drive is so beautiful, but it might be something we can’t do in the future.” Her family lives in New Mexico, within driving distance of Boulder. “Ideally we would be able to go see them more often, but it’s a lot of gas,” she said.

Kaitlyn Thomas, 25, a medical resident living in Horseheads, New York, said she sometimes Googles gas prices in nearby Pennsylvania. She also has a running note on her phone where she tracks what’s advertised at the stations she passes on her commute. Next week, she is moving to Sayre, Pennsylvania, to live within walking distance of work.

Laura Romine, 22, took the balancing act a step further: She moved into her van two years ago to save money and to travel. “Now it’s really not saving that much money,” she said. She keeps her van parked more and avoids traveling.

Gas prices have started to inch down across the United States in the past week, AAA data shows. As of Friday, the average was $4.93 a gallon, compared with $5 a week ago. But economists and industry analysts predict that prices will stay high in the near term, especially as the summer travel season continues and the global energy market remains uncertain. High prices are reaching every corner of the American consumer economy, and fuel costs are having a similar effect.

The cost of diesel, which fuels many commercial buses, vans and trucks, has also risen this year. That has forced companies to rethink how they conduct their business. Near Scottsdale, Arizona, where Eddie Perez owns a party bus company, it’s common to have vehicles idling while customers are at bars or dinner, partly to keep them cool during blazing hot months. He has told his drivers to turn off the buses when possible, and he has raised his prices.

George Jacobs, CEO of Windy City Limousine and Bus Worldwide in Chicago, said that rising diesel prices have “just decimated us.” To try to save fuel, his team has closely monitored software that shows if any of his buses are idling, and that flags whether the buses are traveling at the most efficient speeds. He is exploring the idea of adding electric buses to his fleet, as well as other ways to make his operation more efficient. In the meantime, he said that his drivers try to purchase gas out of state, like in Indiana, when they are on the road. “Any time we can fuel up outside of Cook County we do that,” he said. “It’s very serious money.”
Today’s AAA National Average $4.908. 
Price as of 6/25/22.

"A Wise Man Once Said..."

“A wise man once said you can have anything in life if you will sacrifice everything else for it. What he meant is nothing comes without a price. So before you go into battle, you better decide how much you’re willing to lose. Too often, going after what feels good means letting go of what you know is right, and letting someone in means abandoning the walls you’ve spent a lifetime building. Of course, the toughest sacrifices are the ones we don’t see coming, when we don’t have time to come up with a strategy to pick a side or to measure the potential loss. When that happens, when the battle chooses us and not the other way around, that’s when the sacrifice can turn out to be more than we can bear.”
- “Dr. Meredith Grey”, “Grey’s Anatomy"