Chuck Barone, June 16th, 2022:
"Oh No! The Fed!"
So, we rise from the rubble...
Thursday, June 16, 2022
Gregory Mannarino, "Full-On Crisis! Central Banks Are Attempting To Stabilize The Debt Market - Will It Work?"
Gregory Mannarino, PM 6/16/22:
"Full-On Crisis! Central Banks Are Attempting
To Stabilize The Debt Market - Will It Work?"
"The Fed Rate Hikes Have Finally Killed the Banks - Real Estate is Crashing"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 6/16/22:
"The Fed Rate Hikes Have Finally Killed the Banks -
Real Estate is Crashing"
"The Fed has raised interest rates with the largest single increase in over 28 years. This is absolutely huge for so many reasons. The Fed thinks that they’re going to curb inflation with this increase. In January they said that they intended to bring inflation down and have basically done nothing but watch it go up and raise interest rates a couple of times."
"A Look to the Heavens"
“Riding high in the constellation of Auriga, beautiful, blue vdB 31 is the 31st object in Sidney van den Bergh's 1966 catalog of reflection nebulae. It shares this well-composed celestial still life with dark, obscuring clouds recorded in Edward E. Barnard's 1919 catalog of dark markings in the sky. All are interstellar dust clouds, blocking the light from background stars in the case of Barnard's dark nebulae. For vdB 31, the dust preferentially reflects the bluish starlight from embedded, hot, variable star AB Aurigae.
Exploring the environs of AB Aurigae with the Hubble Space Telescope has revealed the several million year young star is itself surrounded by flattened dusty disk with evidence for the ongoing formation of a planetary system. AB Aurigae is about 470 light-years away. At that distance this cosmic canvas would span about four light-years.”
"The Cruelest Joke Of All..."
"The smallest decisions made had such profound repercussions. One ten-minute wait could save a life or end it. One wrong turn down the right street or one seemingly unimportant conversation, and everything was changed. It wasn't right that each lifetime was defined, ruined, ended, and made by such seemingly innocuous details. A major life-threatening event should come with a flashing warning sign that either said ABANDON ALL HOPE or SAFETY AHEAD. It was the cruelest joke of all that no one could see the most vicious curves until they were over the edge, falling into the abyss below."
- Sherrilyn Kenyon
"It Is Our Fate..."
"Well, it is our fate to live in a time of crisis. To live in a time when all forms and values are being challenged. In other and more easy times, it was not, perhaps, necessary for the individual to confront himself with a clear question: What is it that you really believe? What is it that you really cherish? What is it for which you might, actually, in a showdown, be willing to die? I say, with all the reticence which such large, pathetic words evoke, that one cannot exist today as a person – one cannot exist in full consciousness – without having to have a showdown with one’s self, without having to define what it is that one lives by, without being clear in one’s mind what matters and what does not matter.”
- Dorothy Thompson
Free Download: Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, “The Little Prince"
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by Kirstie Pursey
“‘The Little Prince’, by Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, is a children’s story with some very profound meanings and some quotes that will really make you think. I have to admit that I never read the ‘Little Prince’ as a child. I think I wouldn’t have known what to make of it if I did. Even reading it as an adult I didn’t know what to make of it!
However, it is clear that “The Little Prince” touches on some very deep themes about the nature of life, love, friendship and more. The following Little Prince quotes show just how many philosophical themes are discussed in this small, but profound work.
The story tells of a pilot who crashes into the Sahara desert. He is attempting to fix his damaged plane when a little boy appears as if from nowhere and demands that he draws him a sheep. Thus begins a strange, enigmatic friendship that is both heartwarming and heartbreaking. The Little Prince, it turns out, comes from a small asteroid where he is the only living being apart from a rather demanding rose bush. The Little Prince decides to leave his home and visit other planets to find knowledge. The story tells of these encounters with rulers of strange worlds and de Saint-Exupéry has opportunities to demonstrate some philosophical themes that will make readers think.
On earth, as well as meeting the pilot, The Little price meets a Fox and Snake. The fox helps him to truly understand the rose and the snake offers him a way to return to his home planet. But his return journey comes at a high price. The book’s bittersweet ending is both thought-provoking and emotional. I would definitely recommend that you read “The Little Prince” if you haven’t already.
It is one of the most beautiful and profound children’s books there are. If you have older children, then you might like to read it with them as it can be a little overwhelming for them to read alone. In the meantime, here are some of the best and most thought-provoking Little Prince quotes:
• “It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye.”
• “A rock pile ceases to be a rock pile the moment a single man contemplates it, bearing within him the image of a cathedral.”
• “All grown-ups were once children… but only a few of them remember it.”
• “Well, I must endure the presence of a few caterpillars if I wish to become acquainted with the butterflies.”
• “Grown-ups never understand anything by themselves, and it is tiresome for children to be always and forever explaining things to them.”
• “The most beautiful things in the world cannot be seen or touched, they are felt with the heart.”
• “It is much more difficult to judge oneself than to judge others. If you succeed in judging yourself rightly, then you are indeed a man of true wisdom.”
• “It is the time you have wasted for your rose that makes your rose so important.”
• “I am who I am and I have the need to be.”
• “No one is ever satisfied where he is.”
• “One day, I watched the sun setting forty-four times… You know…when one is so terribly sad, one loves sunsets.”
• “People where you live, the little prince said, grow five thousand roses in one garden… Yet they don’t find what they’re looking for… And yet what they’re looking for could be found in a single rose.”
• “But the conceited man did not hear him. Conceited people never hear anything but praise.”
• “What matters most are the simple pleasures so abundant that we can all enjoy them…Happiness doesn’t lie in the objects we gather around us. To find it, all we need to do is open our eyes.”
• “Where are the people?” resumed the little prince at last. “It’s a little lonely in the desert…” “It is lonely when you’re among people, too,” said the snake.”
• “What makes the desert beautiful,’ said the little prince, ‘is that somewhere it hides a well…”
• “For me, you are only a little boy just like a hundred thousand other little boys. And I have no need of you. And you have no need of me, either. For you, I’m only a fox like a hundred thousand other foxes. But if you tame me, we’ll need each other. You’ll be the only boy in the world for me and I’ll be the only fox in the world for you.”
• “To forget a friend is sad. Not everyone has had a friend.”
• “Only the children know what they are looking for.”
• “Sometimes, there is no harm in putting off a piece of work until another day.”
• “I should have judged her according to her actions, not her words.”
• “Nevertheless he is the only one of them all who does not seem to me ridiculous. Perhaps that is because he is thinking of something else besides himself.”
• “The one thing I love in life is to sleep.”
• “The machine does not isolate man from the great problems of nature but plunges him more deeply into them.”
• “And when your sorrow is comforted (time soothes all sorrows) you will be content that you have known me.”
“Closing thoughts: I hope you have enjoyed these ‘Little Prince’ quotes. Admittedly, they are sometimes difficult to fathom at first. However, like many things in life, the more you think about them, the more they begin to make sense. This is not an easy book to read and the bittersweet ending may leave you feeling a little heartbroken. However, the book offers so many insights into the human condition that it is well worth the time spent thinking about the philosophical ideas contained between the covers.”
Freely download “The Little Prince”, by Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, here:
The Poet: James Kavanaugh, “Searchers”
“Searchers”
“Some people do not have to search -
they find their niche early in life and rest there,
seemingly contented and resigned.
They do not seem to ask much of life,
sometimes they do not seem to take it seriously.
At times I envy them,
but usually I do not understand them -
seldom do they understand me.
I am one of the searchers.
There are, I believe, millions of us.
We are not unhappy, but neither are we really content.
We continue to explore life,
hoping to uncover its ultimate secret.
We continue to explore ourselves,
hoping to understand.
We like to walk along the beach -
we are drawn by the ocean,
taken by its power, its unceasing motion,
its mystery and unspeakable beauty.
We like forests and mountains, deserts and hidden rivers,
and the lonely cities as well.
Our sadness is as much a part of our lives as is our laughter.
To share our sadness with the one we love is
perhaps as great a joy as we can know -
unless it is to share our laughter.
We searchers are ambitious only for life itself,
for everything beautiful it can provide.
Most of all we want to love and be loved.
We want to live in a relationship that will not impede
our wandering, nor prevent our search, nor lock us in prison walls.
We do not want to prove ourselves to another or compete for love.
We are wanderers, dreamers and lovers,
lonely souls who dare ask of life everything good and beautiful.”
- James Kavanaugh
"Surely, You Did Something…’”
"Surely, You Did Something…’”
“It’s 3:23 A.M.
And I’m awake because my great great grandchildren won’t let me sleep.
They ask me in dreams,
‘What did you do while the planet was plundered?
What did you do when the earth was unraveling?
Surely you did something when the seasons started flailing?
As the mammals, reptiles and birds were all dying?
Did you fill the streets with protest?
When democracy was stolen, what did you do once you knew?
Surely, you did something…’”
- Drew Dellinger
Bill Bonner, "The Fed's Fight"
"The Fed's Fight"
Old, flabby and unprepared,
the Fed steps up for the match of it's life...
by Bill Bonner
"Look what he’s done. Look what Joe Frazier has done!"
~ Howard Cosell
Youghal, Ireland - "Yesterday was a big day for the Fed. The cameras rolled. The reporters leaned in. Inquiring minds wanted to know: “Which way will it go? What are you fellows going to do?” In the old Soviet Union no one was sure of anything until it was officially denied. And yesterday, we got our official denial. From Ben Bernanke, probably the least conscious central banker in US history, came this: "…history teaches us… inflation will not become self-perpetuating, with price increases leading to wage increases leading to price increases, if people are confident that the Fed will take the necessary measures to bring inflation down over time."
The Fed’s greater policy independence, its willingness to take responsibility for inflation and its record of keeping inflation low for nearly four decades after the Great Inflation, make today’s Fed much more credible on inflation than its counterpart in the ’60s and ’70s. The Fed’s credibility will help ensure that the Great Inflation will not be repeated, and Mr. Powell and his colleagues will put a high priority on keeping that credibility intact. Yep. It’s official. The Fed is going to win this fight, says the old humbug.
Out of Shape: Is it? While we’re trying to keep an open mind, a Fed victory seems less and less likely. Yes, Fed governors are out of rehab and back in the gym. They promise to stay off the drugs and booze. ‘Early to bed and early to rise,’ says Chairman Powell. The papers reported not only that the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points… but that it intends another big increase next month. The Wall Street Journal: "The supersized rate rise put in place by the Federal Reserve Wednesday may not be the last one, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday.
Speaking about the Fed's rate rise, Mr. Powell said, "Clearly, today’s 75-basis-point increase is an unusually large one and I do not expect moves of this size to be common. From the perspective of today, either a 50-basis-point or a 75-basis-point increase seems most likely at our next meeting.” Not since 1994 – 28 years ago – has the Fed acted with such resolve. But the Fed is facing the fight of its life. And it is old, ‘out of shape’ and unprepared.
Economists describe America’s central bank as ‘way behind the curve.’ They are talking about the inflation/Fed Funds curve. A ‘normal’ or ‘neutral’ interest rate for the Fed is about 2%. As inflation rises, so should the Fed’s key rate. But that’s 2% in real terms. That’s 2% ABOVE the inflation rate. So, at today’s CPI, the current Fed Funds rate should be over 10%... not today’s 1.5%. That would mean a rate increase of not 75 basis points… but 900 points. And that would be the biggest shock to the markets ever seen in the USA. Even if Fed governors were the grittiest, dirtiest, toughest fighters in the ring, they still wouldn’t dare throw a punch like that. Which is why you hear commentators say the Fed has “lost control” of inflation. It can’t do what it needs to do.
Sucker Punched: In 2018, the Fed was raising rates, trying to catch up with soaring stock market prices. That was the time for a 1% increase… followed by another 1% increase… and another one. That would have gotten the Fed where it needed to be – ahead of the curve. But as the hot summer came to an end, and investors drove home from their vacation houses, they looked in their rear-view mirrors and saw the Fed gaining on them. Fearing a bear market, they began to offload their overpriced stocks in September. By the end of the year, the S&P was down 17%.
This caused Janet Yellen, then the Fed jefe, to make what will probably be regarded as one of the worst mistakes in central banking history. Instead of continuing the fight to get back to a normal position, she took a dive. The Fed ‘paused’ its rate increases… and then collapsed the Fed Funds rate down to zero, where it remained until this year.
And while the Fed lay as lifeless as a comatose heavyweight, consumer prices rose… to the point where they are now going up approximately 9 times faster than the Fed’s key rate. Even with rate increases of .75% a quarter, it will take 4 years to catch up. And that is only if the CPI stays still. Which is very unlikely.
Just look at the Producer Prices Index. It is rising at more than 10% per year. Those are the costs that will work their way into finished, consumer prices later. Mortgage rates are rising too. They’ve approximately doubled this year. On a $350,000 house, for example, the monthly payment has gone up from about $1,500 to $2,100. Still very low. But the pool of people who can afford to spend $2,100 a month is vastly smaller than the pool of those who can afford to spend $1,500. So sales go down. And so do prices.
The Jig Is Up: You’ll recall from Monday, too, that wage increases have in no ways kept up with these price increases. The average family struggles to keep up with the basics – food, fuel, and shelter – leaving it with less and less money to spend on other things.
Over in the corporate world, the situation is not much different. Businesses – including many ‘zombie’ companies that lose money rather than make it – stayed alive by refinancing their debt at lower and lower interest rates. That jig is up too. While the average junk bond yield (what bad corporations pay to refinance their debt) is still below the inflation rate, it is now twice what it was last December.
That’s why we’re seeing such a bloodbath in the zombie sector. Yesterday, we looked at MicroStrategy… a money-losing company that pinned its hopes on bitcoin. But when the cryptos went down…. down went Microstrategy, losing 90% of its peak value. Stocks are falling. Bonds are falling. Houses are falling. Inflation is rising. And a recession has probably already begun.
Nobody knows how this fight will end. But if the Fed can get up off the mat and land a knockout punch, it will be one for the history books… as if Howard Cosell had decked Joe Frazier with a baseball bat."
"When The Whole World Goes Mad..."
"When the world goes mad, one must accept madness as sanity;
since sanity is, in the last analysis, nothing but the
madness on which the whole world happens to agree."
- George Bernard Shaw
"Dow Dumps Back Below 30,000; Lowest Since Dec 2020"
"Dow Dumps Back Below 30,000; Lowest Since Dec 2020"
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, June 16, 2022 - 06:53 AM: "For the first time since January 2021, The Dow Industrials just broke back below 30,000, erasing all of yesterday's post-Powell gains and then some. This is the lowest level for The Dow since December 2020. The Dow is now just 1% above pre-COVID highs. All the US Majors are now underwater from Tuesday, erasing all of yesterday's gains with Small Caps leading the charge lower. Bonds are also getting hammered this morning with the long-end underperforming more. The dollar and gold are also lower this morning. Small Caps are now trading lower than pre-COVID levels. So, $5 trillion in QE was wasted?"
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Live Market updates:
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"So, $5 trillion in QE was wasted?" Seems so, Good Citizen,
and just who do you think will have to repay it? YOU of course...
"You Finally Find What You're After..."
"When we're headed toward an outcome that's too horrible to face, that's when we go looking for a second opinion. And sometimes, the answer we get just confirms our worst fears. But sometimes, it can shed new light on the problem, make you see it in a whole new way. After all the opinions have been heard and every point of view has been considered, you finally find what you're after - the truth. But the truth isn't where it ends, that's just where you begin again with a whole new set of questions."
- "Grays Anatomy"
Gregory Mannarino, "Alert! Emergency Tools To Prevent Debt Market 'Fragmentation'; Critical Updates"
Gregory Mannarino, AM 6/16/22:
"Alert! Emergency Tools To Prevent Debt
Market 'Fragmentation'; Critical Updates"
"Another Cataclysmic Error Threatens To Plunge The U.S. Economy Into A Bottomless Abyss Of Pain And Suffering"
"Another Cataclysmic Error Threatens To Plunge
The U.S. Economy Into A Bottomless Abyss Of Pain And Suffering"
by Michael Snyder
"I can’t believe that they actually did it. Even though it is painfully obvious that the U.S. economy is slowing down dramatically and that we are heading into an excruciating repeat of the housing crash of 2008, the Federal Reserve decided to go ahead with the largest interest rate hike in 28 years anyway. History has shown us that raising rates just as an economy is entering a recession is an exceedingly foolish move, and many of us have been pleading with the Fed not to do it. But of course if the Fed actually listened to people like us, we would not be facing such a dire crisis in the first place.
Essentially, the Fed just killed any hopes of avoiding a recession. The rate hike that was announced on Wednesday was the largest that we have seen since 1994…"The Fed raised its key short-term interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point Wednesday – its largest hike since 1994 – to a range of 1.5% to 1.75. It also downgraded its economic forecast. And it signaled that more big moves may be coming. Fed officials forecast the federal funds rate will end 2022 at a range of 3.25% to 3.5% and next year at close to 4%, according to their median estimate.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell insists that substantially raising rates will tame inflation. That worked in the early 1980s, but I am skeptical that the same playbook will work again for a couple of reasons.
First of all, in the early 1980s the U.S. was one trillion dollars in debt. Today, we are 30 trillion dollars in debt. Our politicians have been on the greatest borrowing and spending binge in the history of the world during the last couple of years, and hiking interest rates cannot erase the trillions upon trillions of new dollars that have entered the economy. In addition, the Federal Reserve has pumped trillions of dollars that they created out of thin air into the system in recent years. Hiking interest rates is not a “magic bullet” that can erase that colossal mistake either.
But the Fed feels like it has been forced to do something to address the current crisis, because prices continue to spiral out of control. For example, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States hit a new record high for the 18th day in a row on Wednesday…"Gas prices on Wednesday reached a record high for the eighteenth consecutive day. The national average price of gas reached $5.039, according to GasBuddy. On Tuesday, gas prices were around $5.02 per gallon."
And survey after survey has shown that the American people are rapidly losing faith in the Federal Reserve…"Even more concerning are new signs that families have lost faith in the Fed’s policies. Consumer sentiment in June sank to a low not seen since the 1980 recession, according to a University of Michigan survey. Similarly, a poll by The Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government found that most Americans expect inflation to worsen and are adjusting their spending habits, a mind-set that can make the surge in prices even worse."
So I can understand why Powell and his minions felt a need to raise rates. But you simply can’t raise rates as the economy enters a recession. That is suicidal.
At this point, even the Fed’s own numbers show that the economy is really slowing down…"After a week of rampant jawboning to adjust the market’s expectation for The Fed’s actions later today (after last Friday’s unexpected resurgence in CPI), the continued erosion in economic data (most notably retail sales this morning) has prompted The Atlanta Fed to slash its forecast for Q2 GDP growth from +0.9% to 0.0%, meaning the US is now right on the verge of a technical recession (after Q1’s contraction)."
If U.S. GDP goes negative again in the second quarter, then we are already officially in a recession right now. And what the Fed just did is going to make it much worse, because it is about to become a lot more expensive to borrow money…"Every time the Fed raises rates, it becomes more expensive to borrow. That means higher interest costs for mortgages, home equity lines of credit, credit cards, student debt and car loans. Business loans will also get pricier, for businesses large and small."
The most tangible way this is playing out is with mortgages, where rate hikes have already driven up rates and slowed down sales activity. In particular, higher rates are going to absolutely eviscerate the housing market. In fact, yesterday I discussed the fact that another housing crash has already begun. Right now there is a tremendous amount of panic out there as those that work in the industry come to grips with what is now taking place.
"Mortgage broker here. These rates are insane and making a HUGE impact on people’s ability to buy. Even well-qualified borrowers are getting priced out before eyes. $800/month higher than avg on 1/1 based on $450K loan amount."
- Morgan Faricy (@MorganFaricy) June 14, 2022
A year ago, the housing market in the U.S. was red hot, but now the environment has completely changed. Compared to the same period a year ago, total mortgage application volume was down a whopping 52.7 percent last week…"Total mortgage application volume was 52.7% lower last week than the same week one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Sharply rising interest rates are decimating refinance volume, and those rates, along with sky-high home prices and a shortage of houses for sale, are hitting demand from potential buyers."
In 2008, the Federal Reserve played a major role in bursting the most epic housing bubble in the history of our country. Now it is happening again, only this time the housing bubble is even larger than the one that imploded over a decade ago.
Most Americans may not realize it, but this is truly a very sad day for the United States. An immensely painful economic crisis has essentially been guaranteed, and beyond that we are going to see things happen that once would have been unthinkable. But things didn’t have to turn out this way. If we would have made better decisions, we could have had much different results. Unfortunately, the Fed has come up with an endless series of colossal errors in recent years, and this latest error is one of the biggest of them all."
"Major Price Increases At Kroger! Trying To Find Deals!"
Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 6/16/22:
"Major Price Increases At Kroger! Trying To Find Deals!"
"In today's vlog we are at Kroger, and are noticing massive price increases! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products! "
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Related:
"A Time for Reckoning" (Excerpt)
"A Time for Reckoning"
by Antony Davies
Excerpt: "Consumer prices are up almost nine percent from where they were a year ago. For the median U.S. household, that’s equivalent to an almost $6,000 pay cut. Politicians have blamed corporate greed, the Ukraine war, and the supply chain because they are keen to get voters to latch on to any explanation as long as it isn’t the correct explanation. The correct explanation implicates the entire political class.
For four decades, economists have warned, and warned, and warned again that the federal government should not spend money it doesn’t have. But during each of a string of crises, politicians insisted that a “temporary” bout of deficit spending was necessary to get us through to the other side. Deficit spending was needed, politicians said, to deal with the Soviet threat in the 1980s, then the Savings and Loan crisis in the 1990s, then 9/11 in the 2000s, then the housing crisis in the 2010s, then COVID in the 2020s. If they have their way, next up will be more deficit spending in the 2030s to deal with the looming Social Security insolvency crisis. In today’s dollars, politicians added $3 trillion to the debt in the 1980s and again in the 1990s. They added $6 trillion in the 2000s, then almost $10 trillion in the 2010s. According to the Congressional Budget Office, we can expect politicians to add more than $17 trillion in the 2020s. Each generation of voters has complained about the debt, and each generation of politicians has kicked the can down the road, despite knowing that future generations would have to deal with the consequences.
We are that future generation and the inflation we’re seeing today is just one of the consequences.
Today, the federal government collects, from all taxes combined, around $4 trillion per year. But it owes $30 trillion, and has committed to paying another $100 trillion to $250 trillion (beyond what it collects in future payroll taxes) to future Social Security and Medicare recipients. For perspective, that’s like a household with a $60,000 income being $450,000 in debt, and then promising to pay for 18 kids to attend four-year private colleges. If that sounds unsustainable, you’re beginning to understand economists’ concerns over the past forty years.
...
The cure for inflation is to contract the money supply, but contracting the money supply raises interest rates. That’s good news for lenders and bad news for borrowers – and the single largest borrower on the planet is the federal government. At $30 trillion, just a one-percentage point increase in interest rates would cost the federal government an additional $300 billion annually. A two-percentage point increase in interest rates would cost the federal government almost as much as the entire Department of Defense – every year.
The growth in the federal debt has painted the Federal Reserve into a corner. The Fed must now choose between preserving the purchasing power of the dollar and preserving the financial stability of the federal government. If the Fed contracts the money supply, it keeps inflation down but interest rates go up. If the Fed expands the money supply, it keeps interest rates down but inflation goes up."
Please view this complete, highly informative article here:
"Running on Empty" (Excerpt)
"Running on Empty", Part IV
How the War between Russia and Ukraine is Destroying the Petrodollar System
by Contemplations on the Tree of Woe
Excerpt: "Welcome to Part IV of "Running on Empty," my four-part analysis of the Petrodollar system.
Part I of this series explained that the US dollar is the world’s first reserve currency that is not backed by precious metals. Instead it is backed by other people’s oil. Because of a secret treaty between the US and Saudi Arabia, petroleum can only be purchased with dollars. Every country needs oil, so everyone country needs dollars and sells imports to the US to get them. Demand for dollars has made the USD the primary American export, allowing the US to deindustrialize and financialize its economy.
Part II explained how the petrodollar has grossly enriched American asset holders (stocks, bonds, and real estate) and painfully impoverished American wage earners. Under the petrodollar system, dollars are created by private banks for profit. These dollars are recycled into the economy by OPEC nations, causing stocks, bonds, and real estate to rise. This profitable exchange is enforced by American military might, which punishes any country that seeks to exit the petrodollar system.
Part III explained that for the petrodollar system to function, America needs to be able to project power worldwide to secure international trade and enforce the system. America secures global commerce and projects military power by commanding the World Ocean, by which 90% of all goods are trafficked. To overcome America’s naval supremacy, both Russia and China have sought to establish control of the World Island, the Eurasian supercontinent that houses most of the world’s population and resources. The Russo-Ukraine War is a proxy war between the uncontested master of the World Ocean (America) and the would-be masters of the World Island (China and Russa).
In Part IV, we’ll discuss how faulty expectations by both sides in the Russo-Ukraine War have led to sanctions of such severity might cause the petrodollar system to break down.
Please view Part IV of this excellent series here:
Wednesday, June 15, 2022
"Economy About To Get Very Scary - The FED Has Created A Mad Max Meltdown; Housing Market Is Finished"
Jeremiah Babe, 6/15/22:
"Economy About To Get Very Scary -
The FED Has Created A Mad Max Meltdown; Housing Market Is Finished"
Canadian Prepper, "Warning: The Bubble Is Bursting!"
Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 6/15/22:
"Warning: The Bubble Is Bursting!" (W/Special Guest)
"Talking with a friend about the coming financial crash."
"20 Signs That Show That The U.S. Economy Is Starting To Fall Apart Very Rapidly"
Full screen recommended.
"20 Signs That Show That The U.S. Economy
Is Starting To Fall Apart Very Rapidly"
by Epic Economist
"The U.S. economy is falling apart at a frightening pace. Right now, pretty much every piece of hard economic data is telling us that a historic slowdown is taking place, and that is resulting in dramatic consequences for millions of Americans. Every sector of the economy is starting to falter, and the population is having to cope with the highest cost of living in nearly four decades. Even financial markets that performed well during the past few years despite the effects of the health crisis are currently experiencing a meltdown. At this point, everyone can see that we're officially entering another devastating economic downturn that can erupt a lot sooner than previously expected. Financial and economic losses are rising to the tune of trillions of dollars with each passing month. Conversely, the U.S. debt load is soaring to levels never before seen in human history. Do you have any idea how alarming that is?
The U.S. is over $30.4 trillion in debt, which makes up for the greatest debt bubble in the history of the world. This means that our debt burden is bigger than the GDP of China, Japan, and India combined. According to FEE calculations, if every single household in America was forced to pay off that debt, each one of them would have to disburse over $231,000, or each person would have to pay around $90,000. Actually, even if we paid $1 per second of the year, it would still take 713,470 years to pay down that entire sum.
Every day, we spend more than $900 million on interest payments on that debt. With that money, we could afford to pay for a 4-year college degree with all expenses included for around 27.464 graduating high-schoolers on a daily basis. These figures show us that we’re not investing in our future but trapped in a bubble of debt that only grows bigger each year.
According to a new CNBC CFO Council survey, 100% Of financial officers expect a recession to start in the months ahead. “No CFO forecast a recession any later than the second half of next year, and no CFO thinks the economy will avoid a recession,” reads the report. Have you ever heard of a survey where 100 percent of the respondents agree? It seems that confidence in the U.S. economy is at an all-time low.
In essence, everyone has started to realize that the U.S. economy is clearly moving in the wrong direction. Every month that goes by, we continue to see more and more evidence that a historic economic collapse is underway. The "Everything Bubble" is now officially bursting, and the "Perfect Storm" economists warned about is not on the horizon anymore. It is already here and it is safe to say that our lives will never be the same again. We’re about to experience the consequences of decades of exceedingly reckless decisions, and the chaos that's coming will be extreme.
We must start paying attention to all of the alarm bells that are ringing because things are really getting out of control out there. For that reason, in today's video, we compiled some astonishing numbers that reveal the rapid decay of the U.S. economy."
"The Fed Goes Big"
"The Fed Goes Big"
by Brian Maher
"Word dropped at 2 p.m. Eastern time…Consensus opinion had projected the Federal Reserve would elevate its target rate 50 basis points today. Yet the monetary authority alighted upon the more aggressive 75 - its boldest increase since 1994. Thus the federal funds rate squats within a range of 1.5–1.75%. That is far beneath the 8.6% consumer price inflation currently going. And the Federal Reserve itself anticipates heavier action to come. Reports CNBC: "According to the “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations, the Fed’s benchmark rate will end the year at 3.4%, an upward revision of 1.5 percentage points from the March estimate. The committee then sees the rate rising to 3.8% in 2023, a full percentage point ramp higher."
Just so. And the Federal Reserve honked today that it is "strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective.” Yet is it?
Get Real: Unless today’s inflationary fever breaks by 2023, even a 3.8% rate might not lower the mercury much. And it is far from clear that today’s decision will effect any cooling whatsoever. Consider… The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate subtracting inflation. Thus we discover that the real interest rate runs at a deeply negative 6.85% (1.75% - 8.6%).
Assume for the moment the Federal Reserve attains its projected 3.8% rate next year. Inflation must recede to 3.7% next year for the real rate to exceed zero - and only by a whisker. We do not believe inflation will chill to 3.7% by next year. We further expect the real rate to remain minus. The Federal Reserve will peg along at an inadequate pace.
Why the Real Rate Matters: The real interest rate is labeled the real interest rate because it penetrates numerical mists and scatters statistical fogs. It clarifies. As explains Jim Rickards, “Real rates are what determine investment decisions.”
A 10-year Treasury bond yielding 7% might reel you in, for example. But what if inflation averaged 8% over the same period? Inflation would gobble your 7% yield - and a bit more into the bargain. You would require a 9% yield merely to paddle ahead of inflation.
Meantime, you may balk at a 10-year Treasury bond yielding 3%. But if inflation runs at 2%… then your 3% Treasury yields you 1%. A slender gain, yes. But you escape with your skin - and a slight surplus. Thus your 3% 10-year Treasury… when inflation goes at 2%... infinitely bests a 7% Treasury if inflation is 8%. Shall we rank today’s real rate against the real rate of 1981?
Miles and Miles From Another “Volcker Moment”: The late Paul Volcker is widely credited with freezing out inflation. In 1981, inflation was going at a 10% sizzle. He elevated the federal funds rate to an impossible 20% that year... to restore the normal 98.6 degrees. Thus the real 1981 rate was a fever-breaking 10% (20% - 10%). Today’s real rate gutters along at negative 6.85% - a full 16.85 percentage points beneath 1981’s.
You now see that Mr. Powell is miles and miles away from any authentic “Volcker moment,” despite what the press might argue. As our former colleague David Stockman styles it: "What we’re seeing is powerful inflationary momentum that will take years to vanquish… The only thing that can slow down the inflationary freight train, therefore, is gobsmacking three-digit rate increases capable of shutting down new borrowing completely, thereby materially draining demand from overheated domestic product and labor markets."
Today’s 0.75% elevation therefore fails Mr. Stockman’s rigid requirements. This noted Cassandra continues, wringing troubled hands: "That’s not about to happen, of course. Instead, what lies ahead is a tangle of start-and-stop anti-inflation maneuvers by the Fed that will only prolong the inflationary disaster now upon us, even as the latter is inexorably destined to end in a hair-curling recession." And so we conclude that inflation will race along. But let us sketch the scene in colors darker yet…
Is the True Inflation Rate 16.8%? Mr. John Williams of ShadowStats exposes “flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting.” Thus this Williams fellow penetrates the whim-wham that government throws up to conceal true inflation.
If the United States government calculated inflation as it calculated inflation in 1981… argues Mr. Williams… today’s 8.6% inflation would run to 16.8%. That is, today’s 8.6% inflation actually exceeds 1981’s 10% inflation - if gauged by 1981’s thermometer settings.
We therefore discover that today’s real interest rate may sink as low as negative 15.05% (1.75% - 16.8%). To merely elevate real rates to zero, the Federal Reserve must therefore shoulder the nominal rate up to an inconceivable 15.05%. And to attain Volcker’s real 10% rate? It must elevate the nominal rate to 26.8% (26.8% - 16.8% = 10%). Can you imagine it?
A Modern Sisyphus: We are not confident the economy or the stock market can withstand nominal rates much exceeding 3%. Jerome Powell will likely hoist his white flag of surrender at that point. He did it in 2018. And he will do it in 2023 - depend on it. We liken him to the ancient Sisyphus of Greek mythology. The poor fellow kept pushing his boulder up the steep hill, only to have it roll back down to the base of the hill with each attempt. This Powell character can never summit the hill. How did the stock market take today’s 0.75% boost? Exceptionally well…
“For the Time Being”: The Dow Jones vaulted 303 points today - with the bulk of gains following the 2 p.m. declaration. The S&P 500 leapt 54 points; the Nasdaq Composite, 270. Both followed the Dow Jones’ afternoon trajectory.
Why did the stock market thrill to the news? Opines Mr. Charlie Ripley of Allianz Investment Management: Today’s announcement confirms the Fed’s commitment to fight the inflation battle more aggressively despite the potential aftermath from raising rates at such a rapid pace. Overall, Fed policy rates have been out of sync with the inflation story for some time and the aggressive hikes from the Fed should appease markets for the time being. “For the time being.”
Dead Cat Bounce? We would remind the stock market’s rah-rah men that today the Federal Reserve reaffirmed its commitment to quantitative tightening. It pledged to hack $47.5 billion from its balance sheet per month. In September the hackings will increase to $95 billion per month. The stock market is more attuned to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet than its target interest rate. We will be deeply surprised if the stock market excels while the balance sheet contracts. Today’s market reaction fails to sway us. Deceased felines have been known to bounce.
Are You Feeling Lucky? Again - Mr. Powell will eventually relent - but the stock market will encounter heavy weather in the interim. The precise level at which it will scrape bottom, we do not pretend to know. But we fear it may be substantially beneath today’s levels. We may be mistaken of course - the stock market may now embark upon a lovely spree. We have certainly been mistaken before. Yet we harbor no desire to attempt to “catch a falling knife,” as the phrase runs. Do you?"
Celente and the Judge, "Death of Free Speech, Twitter Doing Gov't Bidding!"
Full screen recommended.
Celente and the Judge, 6/15/22:
"Death of Free Speech, Twitter Doing Gov't Bidding!"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."
"A Look to the Heavens"
“While drifting through the cosmos, a magnificent interstellar dust cloud became sculpted by stellar winds and radiation to assume a recognizable shape. Fittingly named the Horsehead Nebula, it is embedded in the vast and complex Orion Nebula (M42). A potentially rewarding but difficult object to view personally with a small telescope, the below gorgeously detailed image was recently taken in infrared light by the orbiting Hubble Space Telescope in honor of the 23rd anniversary of Hubble's launch.
The dark molecular cloud, roughly 1,500 light years distant, is cataloged as Barnard 33 and is seen above primarily because it is backlit by the nearby massive star Sigma Orionis. The Horsehead Nebula will slowly shift its apparent shape over the next few million years and will eventually be destroyed by the high energy starlight.”
- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130422.html
Chet Raymo, “Tyger, Tyger Burning Bright…”
“Tyger, Tyger Burning Bright…”
by Chet Raymo
“Divinity is not playful. The universe was not made in jest but in solemn incomprehensible earnest. By a power that is unfathomably secret, and holy, and fleet.” You may recall these words from Annie Dillard’s “Pilgrim at Tinker Creek.” There is nothing intrinsically cheerful about the world, she says. To live is to die; it’s all part of the bargain. Stars destroy themselves to make the atoms of our bodies. Every creature lives to eat and be eaten. And into this incomprehensible, unfathomable, apparently stochastic melee stumbles… You and I. With qualities that we have - so far - seen nowhere else. Hope. Humor. A sense of justice. A sense of beauty. Gratitude. But also: Anger. Hurt. Despair. Strangers in a strange land.
Galaxies by the billions turn like St. Catherine Wheels, throwing off sparks of exploding stars. Atoms eddy and flow, blowing hot and cold, groping and promiscuous. A wind of neutrinos gusts through our bodies, Energy billows and swells. A myriad of microorganisms nibble at our flesh.
We have a sense that something purposeful is going on, something that involves us. Something secret, holy and fleet. But we haven’t a clue what it is. We make up stories. Stories in which we are the point of it all. We tell the stories over and over. To our children. To ourselves. And the stories fill up the space of our ignorance. Until they don’t. And then the great yawning spaces open again. And time clangs down on our heads like a pummeling rain, like the collapsing ceiling of the sky. Dazed, stunned, we stagger like giddy topers towards our own swift dissolution. Inexplicably praising. Admiring. Wondering. Giving thanks.”
○
“The Tyger”
“Tyger! Tyger! burning bright
In the forests of the night,
What immortal hand or eye
Could frame thy fearful symmetry?
In what distant deeps or skies
Burnt the fire of thine eyes?
On what wings dare he aspire?
What the hand dare sieze the fire?
And what shoulder, and what art.
Could twist the sinews of thy heart?
And when thy heart began to beat,
What dread hand? and what dread feet?
What the hammer? what the chain?
In what furnace was thy brain?
What the anvil? what dread grasp
Dare its deadly terrors clasp?
When the stars threw down their spears,
And watered heaven with their tears,
Did he smile his work to see?
Did he who made the Lamb make thee?
Tyger! Tyger! burning bright
In the forests of the night,
What immortal hand or eye
Dare frame thy fearful symmetry?”
- William Blake
The Poet: Edward Hirsch, "I Was Never Able To Pray"
"I Was Never Able To Pray"
"Wheel me down to the shore
where the lighthouse was abandoned
and the moon tolls in the rafters.
Let me hear the wind paging through the trees
and see the stars flaring out, one by one,
like the forgotten faces of the dead.
I was never able to pray,
but let me inscribe my name
in the book of waves
and then stare into the dome
of a sky that never ends
and see my voice sail into the night."
- Edward Hirsch
"All We Really Need..."
"Causes do matter. And the world is changed by people who care deeply about causes,about things that matter. We don't have to be particularly smart or talented. We don't need a lot of money or education. All we really need is to be passionate about something important; something bigger than ourselves. And it's that commitment to a worthwhile cause that changes the world."
- Steve Goodier
"Find the things that matter, and hold on to them,
and fight for them, and refuse to let them go."
- Lauren Oliver
"90% Stock Market Crash Is Coming Mid-July - Get Out While You Can"
Full screen recommended.
The Atlantis Report, 6/15/22:
"90% Stock Market Crash Is Coming Mid-July -
Get Out While You Can"
"Harry Dent's target for stock market crash is almost 90%. Get out while you can. Harry Dent is a financial newsletter writer, economist, best-selling author and one of the most outspoken financial editors in America. He's been warning investors for years about the stock market crash that will likely happen this year."
Comments here:
"Today's Recession Will Be Tomorrow's Great Depression"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly, 6/15/22:
"Today's Recession Will Be Tomorrow's Great Depression"
"Everything points to the fact that we are in a recession right now the economy is not going to be fixed anytime soon. We are going to see a new Great Depression. This will be every man for himself in a short period of time."
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