Friday, May 20, 2022

Bill Bonner, "Salt of the Earth"

"Salt of the Earth"
Raising a glass to the hard working folks, 
left behind by their dear leaders' best laid plans...
by Bill Bonner

"Let's drink to the hard working people,
Let's drink to the lowly of birth.
Raise your glass to the good and the evil,
Let's drink to the salt of the earth

Say a prayer for the common foot soldier,
Spare a thought for his back breaking work.
Say a prayer for his wife and his children
Who burn the fires and who still till the earth."
~ "Salt of the Earth" by the Rolling Stones

Youghal, Ireland - "Oh my… Today, we say a prayer for the hard working people… the factory girls and long-haul truckers… They’re going to need it.

Fox News: "The national average cost of a regular gallon of gasoline hit $4.589 early Thursday morning. This price topped Wednesday's previous record of $4.567, which had beat Tuesday's record of $4.523, which in turn had beat Monday's record of $4.470."

And here’s CBS News, looking ahead: "California drivers are grappling with the most expensive gas in the nation, shelling out an average $6.06 per gallon as of Thursday. That could soon be the fate of drivers in the rest of the nation, according to a JPMorgan analyst, who predicts the national average per gallon price could reach $6.20 this summer."

Rising house prices (thanks to the Fed’s ultra-low interest rates) forced middle- and lower- income workers to move further and further away from their work. Now, they may commute 40 miles or more just to get to the job. That’s about 2 gallons of gas… or about $12 worth. One way. At an average blue-collar wage, commuting alone costs over 10% of income. “Too bad…” say the elite. “But this will encourage them to use less fossil fuel. They should buy electric cars.” If that weren’t galling enough, there are early signs that the two legs of middle class prosperity – housing and jobs – are beginning to buckle.

Unsteady She Goes: First, the labor market may be rolling over. The New York Post: "The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, reaching a four month-high and potentially hinting at some cooling in demand for workers amid tightening financial conditions."

Second, house prices are rising at a double-digit annual rate. But with mortgage rates edging up, who can afford to buy them? CNBC: 'Home sales drop 18% in April' "The April drop in closings is the largest one-month decline since July 2010, when the homebuyer tax credit, a federal stimulus resulting from the subprime mortgage crash, expired. The average new house in the US now sells for $523,000. That’s up from $400,000 in January of last year. Interest rates are also up – by nearly 3%. If the entire amount were financed, that would mean a monthly mortgage payment about $1,500 higher."

So, yesterday we were wondering… How come… with so many problems here in the USA – stocks crashing… consumer prices rising by double digits… the baby formula crisis… and people killing shoppers in retail establishments or robbing them on the streets… our leaders go to a foreign country, give the folks there $40 billion, and promise undying support for their war with Russia? “You do the dying,” they say… “we’ll just send you our taxpayers’ money.” McConnell, Pelosi, Yellen... et al – from both wings of the Deep, Deep State… Republican and Democrat – are supposed to represent ‘the people.’ And yet… where’s the love?

We turn to Newsweek Magazine: “The Divide Isn’t Right v. Left; It’s Us Blue Collar Workers Fighting Elite Contempt”. "Charles Stallworth thinks the real divide is not a matter of Republican vs. Democrat or Black vs. White. It’s a matter of ‘class.’ He says the people who do the real work – butchers, carpenters, truck drivers – don’t get any respect. In the Covid panic, for example, the elite kept drawing their paychecks – working remotely – while the factories and workshops were shut down. The only working class people with jobs were the ones who delivered Door Dash food and Amazon packages to white collar homes."

Rules for Thee: And now that the Covid Panic has faded, the class divide is more visible than ever. In restaurants, stores, banks – clerks and servers wear masks; customers don’t.

Salt-of-the-earth commoners pay taxes to support local schools… where their children are taught that their non-college educated parents are failures. The only route to success is via ‘higher education,’ the youngsters are told. They are assured that if they go to college they will not only do more meaningful work – saving the planet! – they will also earn more money.

And now, the Biden Administration wants to cancel student debt. Who benefits? The fellows waiting tables, driving trucks or swinging hammers? Or the college graduates who waited tables and paid their own way through school? Un un. Bloomberg: "At least 30 senior White House staffers have student loan balances, according to 2021 financial disclosures Bloomberg News obtained from the Office of Government Ethics, including Biden’s new press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, and Bharat Ramamurti, deputy director of the National Economic Council."

The poor working stiffs will end up paying the elite’s college expenses… and then, the educated upper classes can thank them: “Waiter… I said no ice in my [imported from Italy] sparkling water. I care about the environment. Thank you.”

Mr. Stallworth doesn’t mention the Fed. Twice this century, it bailed out the rich man’s stock portfolio with trillions of dollars in crisp new bills. But not a penny for the sweating masses.

We are waiting to see if it will repeat the trick. Already, some $30 trillion has been lost, worldwide, in the retreat from Peak Bubble. As the losses mount, the class divide will come front and center. Grosso modo, the ruling elite benefits from rising asset prices. The middle and lower classes benefit from falling consumer prices. It’s one or the other. The Fed can try to bail out the fund managers once again. But it will mean much higher prices for the truck drivers. Or, it can tackle inflation… but the elite will lose trillions. Which way will it go? Say a prayer for the hardworking people. More to come…"
Full screen recommended.
The Rolling Stones, "Salt Of The Earth"

"So We All Ran Around..."

“So we all ran around in mad, mindless, meaningless circles, as if we were in a cotton-candy eating contest where the grand prize was getting kicked in the face. We were oblivious to everything around us that no truly sane person would ever tolerate. And we needed someone else to tell us to stop it.”
- Edward M. Wolfe

Greg Hunter, "Weekly News Wrap-Up 5/20/22"

"Weekly News Wrap-Up 5/20/22"
"Dem Desperate Disaster,
 More Ukraine Propaganda, Unstoppable Inflation"
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

"The DHS Disinformation Governance Board was put on pause this week as yet another disastrous desperate attempt to control the narrative falls apart for the Democrats in the Biden/Obama Administration. A new person at the board has been appointed, and that is Michael Chertoff. He is the former DHS Secretary in the Bush 43 Administration. The former Disinformation Board leader Nina Jankowicz resigned in disgrace after, wait for it - too much disinformation. Controlling alt media under the label of “disinformation” is a brazen unconstitutional and desperate attempt to try to take control of free speech in America. This is another sign that the Democrats do not feel they can win the upcoming election in November of 2022 without this sort of oppression.

According to the propaganda that is passed off as “news” at the New York Times, the Ukraine Army simply “ended its combat Mission in Mariupol” that has been under Russian Army siege for weeks. This fantasy portrayal of what went down is yet another piece of fake news propaganda by the NYT about the war in Ukraine. In reality, Ukraine forces were forced to surrender or be cut to ribbons by the Russian Army. More than 1,700 have surrendered in the last three days. It is another stunning defeat of the Ukrainian army. This is the country the U.S. Senate just approved another $40 billion to keep this farce of a war going instead of stopping it. The mainstream media sources like the New York Times are gaslighting the public into thinking this is going well for Ukraine when it is a total disaster. Talk about throwing good money after bad.

Looks like inflation is here to stay with record high fuel prices clocking in every week and skyrocketing food prices. This has all happened because of Biden/Obama Administration policies on everything from energy to war. What is the answer to this spiking inflation? It’s not a change in policies that got us here in little more than a year of the Biden/Obama Administration. It’s price controls under the new name of “gouging” legislation. Big time Democrat and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers calls this plan “dangerous nonsense” that will make the inflation problem far worse."

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he talks about these stories
 and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 5/20/22:

Jim Kunstler, "Theories Exist to Be Proven"

"Theories Exist to Be Proven"
by Jim Kunstler

"Time, they say, is nature’s way of making sure that everything doesn’t happen at once. Then why does everything seem to be happening at once? These must be unnaturally strange times. Here comes Ukraine… there goes Ukraine… our money is worthless… no water for Las Vegas… buh-bye Roe v Wade…financial markets wobbling… vaccine injuries everywhere… diesel prices killing truckers… food shortages… UFOs… World War Three… white supremacists… no baby formula… whoa… duck-and-cover, here comes monkeypox!

So it goes with criticality in hyper-complex systems, the passing of thresholds into breakdown, all at the same time, failures mutually ramifying other failures seemingly unconnected, and weird things popping up in the dust and rubble like monsters in a bad dream. I know it’s disconcerting to see the world fly apart. Forgive me then, while you fret about the future of your loved ones and your retirement account, if I focus in on just one thing for the moment: the doings of federal attorney John Durham, the special counsel looking into matters pertaining to RussiaGate, the first step in America’s attempted suicide.

Mr. Durham is currently prosecuting a small fish, a sardine among the Lawfare sharks and killer whales of K Street, Michael Sussmann, for telling one measly lie to the FBI. Mr. Durham has been at this task for two years plus. That’s a long time to spend on a simple crime based on a few easy-to-get bits of evidence: a cell phone text, some emails, the testimony of one principal witness - and a pretext that no one ever took seriously in the first place: the punk-ass Alfa Bank conduit-to-Russia story.

So, in 2016, schlubby lawyer Michael Sussmann from Perkins Coie, the DC law firm representing the Hillary Clinton Campaign, asks for a meeting with his old DOJ colleague, Jim Baker, now General Counsel (top lawyer) for the FBI. He has some sensitive information that the Bureau might find interesting. He says he does not represent any particular client in the matter, he’s just stepping forward as a patriotic citizen. He emphasizes this point more than once, including a text, recorded in the digital cloud (uh-oh), the night before the meeting. He comes in out of the swampy Potomac heat to Mr. Baker’s air-conditioned lair at 935 Pennsylvania Avenue and spins a tale about a Russian-owned outfit called Alfa-Bank with computer servers located in the vicinity of Trump Tower in New York City, which, he alleges, are being used by candidate Donald Trump to communicate with bad guys in Russia.

The story goes nowhere fast. The FBI discounts it. Turns out that Mr. Sussmann billed the hours spent on this folderol to Hillary for America, which, prima facie, indicates he was working for her campaign at the time. Six years later, he’s indicted. Anyway, perhaps unbeknownst to Mr. Sussman, the FBI, in July 2016, had already ramped up an investigation into the Trump campaign with the sexy name “Crossfire Hurricane” - a lyric bit from the ancient Rolling Stones’ hit “Jumpin’ Jack Flash” - so anointed by FBI sexy super-agent Peter Strozk, who was at the time jumpin’ in-and-out of bed with colleague Lisa Page, legal counsel to FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe.

“Crossfire Hurricane” was predicated (depending on who you believe, and as yet to be actually determined) on various cockamamie stories featuring sketchy characters such as “Maltese Professor” (that is, CIA informant-and-operator) Joseph Mifsud, Australian diplomat and International-Man-of-Mystery Alexander Downer, Cambridge visiting professor (Ha! You mean DOD errand boy) Stefan Halper, and quite a few other slippery players all revolving around the previous FBI investigation, “Midterm Exam,” into emails “stolen” off of Hillary Clinton’s unauthorized private server located at her home in Chappaqua, New York. The case had been summarily dropped by FBI Director, James Comey - who, incidentally, had no authority to decide whether the “matter” ought to be prosecuted or not (that was up to Attorney General Loretta Lynch, an old crony of Hillary Clinton’s). But this began the FBI and DOJ “coup” or “witch hunt” that ran several years, involved scores of active participants, and climaxed in the malicious and fruitless escapades of the Mueller Investigation.

All of which brings us back to schlubby Mr. Sussmann, the sardine among sharks and whales - and to my theory of the case. Special Counsel Durham was appointed by AG William Barr to determine the origins of the giant hairball called RussiaGate. As you can see, the Sussmann matter amounts to an almost insignificant little thread of the greater scandal. Did Mr. Durham spend two-plus years on it, to the exclusion of a stupendous mass of seditious lying, deception, and roguery by scores of government officials? I don’t think so.

Now, Mr. Durham has brought the case into the DC federal district courtroom of Judge Christopher Cooper, appointed by Barack Obama. Judge Cooper’s wife, Amy Jeffress is the attorney for the same Lisa Page of Jumpin’ Jack Flash fame. Meanwhile, several jurors seated in the trial revealed that they were donors to the 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign - something one might expect in a city that voted over 90 percent for Mrs. Clinton in that election. Mr. Durham must have known that prosecuting the case under those circumstances would be a slog.

Win or lose on Sussmann, I think Mr. Durham is using the case to test certain evidentiary parameters. I think he will turn around in the weeks ahead, perhaps during the summer, and bring indictments against many higher-up figures in the DOJ, FBI, and elsewhere in government on much graver charges bundled into a RICO rap, for the simple reason that RussiaGate was obviously a seditious conspiracy. Therefore, this is a conspiracy theory. Theories exist to be proven. Federal cases are brought to furnish proof. If I’m wrong about this, then the long Durham investigation has been a joke. Personally, I don’t think Mr. Durham intends to go down in history as a joker."
“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear.”
- Taylor Caldwell, "A Pillar of Iron"

"How It Really Is, Quite Intentionally"

 

"Empty Shelves Everywhere! This Is Ridiculous! What's Coming?"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 5/20/22:
"Empty Shelves Everywhere! 
This Is Ridiculous! What's Coming?"
"In today's vlog we are noticing empty shelves everywhere in the grocery stores around here! We are here to explain skyrocketing prices, and a lot of empty shelves! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"

Gregory Mannarino, "FED Continues To Balloon The Money Supply, Inflation Surging Higher; Fear In The Market"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 2/20/22:
"FED Continues To Balloon The Money Supply, 
Inflation Surging Higher; Fear In The Market"

Thursday, May 19, 2022

Gerald Celente, "Trends In the News 5/19/22"

Full screen recommended.
Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, "Trends Journal",
"Trends In the News 5/19/22"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

Canadian Prepper, "It's Over. Pack Your Things"

Canadian Prepper, 5/19/22:
"It's Over. Pack Your Things"
"May as well pack it in now because we lost the game (our species that is). 
I'm about ready to go off air."

"You Will Suffer More Than You Thought; Prepare Now For Crash Landing; Get Ready To Lose Your Job"

Jeremiah Babe, PM 5/19/22:
"You Will Suffer More Than You Thought;
 Prepare Now For Crash Landing; Get Ready To Lose Your Job"

"Housing's New Crisis Coming! Mortgage Demand Drops As Home Prices Spike 90 Percent"

Full screen recommended.
"Housing's New Crisis Coming! Mortgage Demand 
Drops As Home Prices Spike 90 Percent"
by Epic Economist

"The U.S. housing market bubble is ready to pop! Many pieces of evidence are pointing to a sizable correction in property values this year as affordability continues to worsen amid soaring mortgage rates. A recent study has shown that home price appreciation has largely outpaced wages in most regional housing markets across the country, with some cities recording a staggering increase of 90% in home prices over the past 24 months. Now, realtors, policymakers, economists, and sellers are starting to worry because a reckoning is threatening to push property values back to their historic norms, reversing the trend that allowed the average price of a home to hit the $400,000 mark.

Applications for mortgages to purchase a home dropped 12% from the prior week, and were down 15% from a year ago. Rising mortgage rates are damaging housing affordability all around the nation. Since the start of the year, mortgage rates have risen over 2 full percentage points, and home prices are more than 20% higher than they were a year ago. Data from the St. Louis Fed showed that median home prices skyrocketed almost 33% from spring 2020. This week, applications to refinance a home loan continued their landslide, dropping another 10%. Compared to a year ago, refinance demand plunged by 76%, marking the end of the refinance boom witnessed during the pandemic. Right now, there is simply a very small pool of borrowers who can actually benefit from a refinance.

At this point, the current state of the market only favors wealthy cash buyers and speculators, who are virtually unaffected by changes to the interest on mortgage loans. “This trend, coupled with low inventory, is causing multiple offers across all price points which are driving prices up even further on top of some crazy asking prices to begin with. With rising interest rates, it is the trifecta of the perfect storm, unfortunately for buyers and would-be buyers who would sell their home if they could afford somewhere else to go,” said Cara Ameer, a realtor at Coldwell Banker in Orange County, California.

With demand slowing due to payment shocks, borrowers pulling back, and the ripple effect of rising rates starting to push the market down, the CEO of real estate data analytics firm Reventure Consulting, Nicholas Gerli, is warning that investors should prepare themselves for another housing bubble burst. In such an environment, a correction in property values has to occur because eventually wages and home prices have to converge again, whether it's by wages catching up or by home prices coming down.

This is only the second time in U.S. history that home prices have risen faster than inflation and wages. The last time this happened was in 2006, just before the housing crash of 2008 - and Gerli warned that since prices today are much higher by comparison than during the previous bubble, the coming correction is likely to be far more acute.

In his view, this nearly doubling in the growth of housing costs has far outpaced national median wages and rent growth, which rose only 5% and 24% respectively over the same time period. For this reason, he believes that Austin and other cities that have experienced the highest growth in annual house payments will see a housing bubble burst first, and the downfall of these markets will be the catalyst to trigger a knock-on effect on prices nationwide.

Needless to say, a housing crash would be horrifying for the US economy given that the housing sector is of paramount importance: a house is usually the biggest asset in American’s savings, comprises a large chunk of the labor force, and is a large contributor to inflation indices. As policymakers continue to play with fire, they may soon end up sparking an explosion that throws not only the housing market but the entire country into disarray."

Gregory Mannarino, "Economic Collapse Speeds Up With No End In Sight"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 5/19/22:
"Economic Collapse Speeds Up With No End In Sight"

Musical Interlude: The Traveling Wilburys, "End Of The Line"

Full screen recommended.
The Traveling Wilburys, "End Of The Line"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“To some, the outline of the open cluster of stars M6 resembles a butterfly. M6, also known as NGC 6405, spans about 20 light-years and lies about 2,000 light years distant. M6 can best be seen in a dark sky with binoculars towards the constellation of Scorpius, coving about as much of the sky as the full moon.
Like other open clusters, M6 is composed predominantly of young blue stars, although the brightest star is nearly orange. M6 is estimated to be about 100 million years old. Determining the distance to clusters like M6 helps astronomers calibrate the distance scale of the universe.”

The Poet: Jane Hirshfield, "The Task "

"The Task"

"It is a simple garment, this slipped-on world.
We wake into it daily - open eyes, braid hair -
a robe unfurled
in rose-silk flowering, then laid bare.
And yes, it is a simple enough task
we've taken on,
though also vast:
from dusk to dawn,
from dawn to dusk, to praise, and not
be blinded by the praising.
To lie like a cat in hot
sun, fur fully blazing,
and dream the mouse;
and to keep too the mouse's patient, waking watch
within the deep rooms of the house,
where the leaf-flocked
sunlight never reaches, but the earth still blooms."

- Jane Hirshfield

"17 Words that Changed My Life Forever"

"17 Words that Changed My Life Forever"
by Jerry Clark

“I remember several years back I heard something that changed my life forever. Up until that point I had been struggling through life – doing everything the hard way. I couldn’t figure out why my life wasn’t going the way I felt it should be. I saw some people going through life effortlessly and seemingly with less tension and frustration while I was wondering if I could ever straighten out the mess my life had turned out to be. I was behind on my dreams, my promises, and my bills. Then one day I was listening to a tape and the lady was talking about the power of having dreams and goals and all of the other stuff that those motivational speakers talk about. By that point I had listened to hundreds of such tapes, but it seemed as if nothing worked for me.

Probably the only reason I was listening to that one was because I had developed a habit of listening to cassette tapes while driving my car. The statement the lady said was simple and I think I had even heard it somewhere before but this time a light bulb went on in my head. I remember stopping the tape and rewinding it over and over again to hear the 17 words she said. I couldn’t believe it was so basic and simple. I was looking for something sophisticated and complicated. I thought I had to attend a $10,000 seminar. I didn’t know I could find it on a $10 tape program.

I’m taking the time to tell you all of this preliminary information because when I tell you the 17 words, I really want you to get it and get it NOW! Because if you get it NOW, your life will never be the same. You will be using the same principle that all who have became wealthy before you have used. Even those who became wealthy and can’t tell you how they did use this same principle without even being aware of what they are doing. Well, are you ready for the 17 words that made a powerful and positive impact on my life and on the life of tens of thousands of individuals who have achieved unimaginable success? Of course you are… Well, here they are…

For things to change, you must get a 
picture of what you want them to change to. 

Yes, it’s as simple as it sounds and as easy as it seems… Don’t try to make it any complicated than this because it will only frustrate you.

You must know exactly what you want and the more specific and clear you can get, the better. This is important because Human Beings are Teleological in nature… In other words, we move towards the pictures we constantly hold in our minds. Let me give you an example… Suppose you went to the store and bought a 1,000-piece jigsaw puzzle but it didn’t have a picture on the box of what the end result should look like.

Would you have a much harder time putting the picture together? Of course. You may eventually figure it out; however, the person who has a clear picture of what the end result should look like will be more than 100 times ahead of you. The question is are they 100 times ahead of you because their IQ is 100 times greater? Is it because they are 100 times better looking than you? Maybe it’s because they live 100 times closer to the person who created the puzzle? Ohh, I know – they were one of the first students to take the Evelyn Woods mind-expanding speed-reading and comprehension course right? If none of this is true then what is?

Yes, the person who had the clear and specific picture of what the outcome was supposed to be was simply operating in accordance to how our brain works. It moves towards the pictures we hold in our mind. It’s interesting because once you know exactly what it is you are moving towards, you seem to automatically know the steps to take or the necessary steps will soon become noticeable.

Your brain's subconscious mind, operating similar to a magnet, will start to attract in your direction the conditions, people, and circumstances that will help you move closer to the mental picture you maintain in your mind and it will repel all of those things that do not correlate to the picture you have in your mind. Therefore, the people who are clear and specific about what they want are using the powers of the Universe to assist them. This is, indeed, an awesome power. A person who knows how and uses this awesome power of the Universe to his or her advantage is a person who is working smart. A person who struggles every day trying to move closer to the success that they have no idea how it’s supposed to look is a person who is working hard.

Based on your observations over the years, do you think that most people are working hard or working smart? People who just work hard day in and day out without a clear picture of what they are moving towards are about as exciting as a tulip. Even though they may seem to be willing to work hard and put in the hours, they don’t seem to have much life in them. And people want to follow people who seem to have some life in them. If they want to find people who don’t seem to have much life in them, all they have to do is go to their job. People will follow people who look like they know where they are going and look like they are excited about the journey.

You must understand that your strength comes from knowing what you want. This will ignite the fire inside of you and enable you to borrow from the promise of the future so you can engage in the activities today that will move you closer and closer to what you want. It will enable you to go through the trials and tribulations that may be necessary so you can arrive at your destination. But remember the journey will be more important than the destination because in the journey you will become the person you require to become to finally arrive at your destination. So when you reach your destination, look at the person you have become and set a new destination so you can continue to grow and develop.

Whatever you do, just always remember that for things to change, you must get a picture of what you want them to change to. These are the "17 Words that Changed My Life Forever"… why not allow them to change yours too?”

The Daily "Near You?"

Olathe, Kansas, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Cycles, Systems and Seats in the Coliseum"

"Cycles, Systems and Seats in the Coliseum"
by Charles Hugh Smith

"Contrary to first impressions, I am not a doom-and-gloomer; I'm a systems-cycles-er, meaning I'm interested in where systems and cycles are heading. Cycles work because we're still running Wetware 1.0 which entered beta testing around 200,000 years ago and was released, bugs and all, around 50,000 years ago. Since the processes and inputs haven't changed, neither do the outputs.

Nature is a mix of dynamic, semi-chaotic systems (fractals, etc.) and cyclical patterns which tend to operate within predictable parameters. Why should human nature and human constructs (societies, economies and political realms) be any different?

So longterm success breeds complacency, hubris, economic and intellectual sclerosis, draining political infighting and the overproduction of parasitic elites, to use Peter Turchin's apt description. Consumption of resources expands to soak up every last bit of what's available and then the supply of goodies plummets for a multitude of completely natural and predictable reasons (sunspot/solar activity, El Nino, etc.) and a host of unpredictable but equally natural semi-chaotic extremes (100-year droughts, floods, etc.).

Wetware 1.0's go-to solutions to all such difficulties are rather limited:

1. Ramp up magical thinking. If a couple of human sacrifices ensured good harvests in the good old days, let's slaughter a couple hundred now - and if that doesn't work, then...

2. Do more of what's failed spectacularly and slaughter a couple thousand fellow humans, because darn it, maybe everything will turn around if we just kill another couple dozen. This requires ignoring the novelty of the current challenges and clinging to what worked so well in the past even as whatever worked in the past can't possibly work now because circumstances are fundamentally different.

3. Seek scapegoats. It's those darn witches. Burn a bunch of them and our troubles will magically disappear.

4. Go take what we need from some other tribe. What's our oil doing under their sand?

5. Consolidate power and wealth in the hands of elites whose failures exacerbated the crisis. Because the obvious solution (to the elites with cushy offices around the palaces and temples) to repeated failures of a leadership that only excels in one thing, squandering rapidly depleting resources on infighting and self-aggrandizement, is to give us all the remaining wealth and power. Hey, this makes perfect sense once you understand #2 above.

6. Demand sacrifices of the many to protect the privileges of the few. The Empire needs some warm bodies to fend off the Barbarians, because it would be a real shame if the Barbarians reached our palatial estates and disrupted the flow of wine and festivities. No worries when you come back on your shield; the bureaucracy will give you a decent burial and your spouse and kids can join the multitude of half-starved beggars waiting for the dwindling distributions of bread and circuses. But never mind that, did you hear about the upcoming games in the Coliseum? Good seats are going fast.

7. Eat your seed corn to keep the party going awhile longer. Not every human group had the luxury of borrowing "money" to keep the fast-unraveling party going awhile longer, so they consumed their seed corn and drained the last of their reserves--which is the same thing as borrowing "money" from a future with diminishing resources and productivity.

8. Maintain supreme confidence that "it will all work out fine because it's always worked out fine" without any sacrifice required of "those who count." What's forgotten is that the luxe greatness that is now teetering on the precipice of ruin was won by the sacrifices of the elites far exceeding the sacrifices of the many.

Back in the day, joining the elite and maintaining one's position required constant sacrifices on behalf of the common good, and strict adherence to public virtue. Now that's all forgotten, and all that remains are elites possessed by the demons of shameless greed and self-interest. The idea that debt, leverage, speculation, greed, exploitation and parasitic elites can expand exponentially forever is magical thinking. Yet that is precisely what America and the rest of the global economic order insists is true and will always be true, forever and ever.

By all means, reject those horrid, awful doom-and-gloomers who look at systems and cycles. Everything will be fine as long as you secure seats for the next games at the Coliseum - they should be spectacular - but not in the way you expect."

"I Know..."

“I know the world seems terrifying right now and the future seems bleak. Just remember human beings have always managed to find the greatest strength within themselves during the darkest hours. When faced with the worst horrors the world has to offer, a person either cracks and succumbs to ugliness, or they salvage the inner core of who they are and fight to right wrongs. Never let hatred, fear, and ignorance get the best of you. Keep bettering yourself so you can make the world around you better, for nothing can improve without the brightest, bravest, kindest, and most imaginative individuals rising above the chaos.”
- Cat Winters

"No Question About It - The Worst Is Yet To Come in the Economy"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 5/19/22:
"No Question About It - 
The Worst Is Yet To Come in the Economy"
"Hold on to your seats. No matter what you think about all of this, one thing is very clear. The worst is yet to come in the economy. We are seeing problems in so many different industries from retail, construction, manufacturing and now finance is having big problems."

Bill Bonner, "The United States vs Spilt Milk"

"The United States vs Spilt Milk"
by Bill Bonner

Youghal, Ireland - "Yesterday, it was the Indians – as in, from India – who were blocking exports of wheat. Today, it is the Biden team that is diddling the supply chain. It’s judged baby formula of such strategic importance that it’s rolled out the Defense Production Act to force US companies to make more of it.

No kidding. AP: "President Joe Biden invoked the Defense Production Act to speed production of infant formula and authorized flights to import supply from overseas, as he faces mounting political pressure over a domestic shortage caused by the safety-related closure of the country's largest formula manufacturing plant." Congress has gotten onto the baby formula case too, authorizing $28 million to hire more people at the FDA!

Up until yesterday, traditional methods – supply-and-demand, give-and-take, private initiative and the profit motive – had kept up tolerably well with the demand for baby formula. But now, the feds have taken charge. Oh my! How did we get along for so long without the foresight and diligence of the feds? Mothers must have had to nurse their children themselves. How barbaric!

Again, the Argentines have something to teach us. Here’s our sidekick, Joel Bowman, writing from Buenos Aires: Here in Argentina, everyone knows that the moment the gov’t gets involved in a particular item at the store - usually through “precios cuidados” - that's the item that's about to become incredibly scarce. Yes, it’s another ‘teachable moment.’ And here’s more: You may wonder, what were Janet Yellen, Mitch McConnell and Nancy Pelosi recently doing in Eastern Europe? Didn’t they know about the baby formula crisis back in the ‘homeland?’

To the Slaughter: And that’s not the only crisis in the USA. On Wall Street, for example, the slaughter of the little lambs continues. Barrons: "It was a day straight out of investors’ nightmares. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,164.52 points, or 3.6%, while the S&P 500 declined 4%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 4.7%. The S&P 500 and the Dow had their worst days since June 11, 2020, while just seven S&P 500 stocks finished higher on the day."

Every rube and rascal with a Robinhood account seems to have the knife at his throat. The Dip Buyers… the Technophiles… the Crypto Lovers – the big bad bear market is having a feast. ‘And the ‘stable’ coins,’ you ask? ‘You mean, as in a place where Christ was born… where they keep horses?’ ‘No… as in a ‘money’ that was supposed to be solid… a crypto you could trust.’ ‘Uh… not so stable after all.’

Stable coins… unstable coins… big techs… little techs… and every tech in-between… all are getting whacked. This is a crisis of Biblical proportions. After all, the ARK is sinking… and the zombies, those creatures caught between Heaven and Hell, are dying. Goldman’s index of money-losing companies shows them going back into the crypt-o where they belong.

Meanwhile…Consumer prices are rising – almost all over the world. This week, the UK announced an inflation rate even higher than the US – at 9%. Sri Lanka is bracing for 40% price increases. Global debt has risen to $305 trillion. And the world’s central banks are squeezed between the irresistible force of falling asset prices – and the immovable object of rising consumer prices. If they try to do something about the market sell-offs, they will make inflation worse, leading to poverty and revolution. If they try to stifle inflation, asset prices will fall even more… leading to recession, joblessness, defaults and bankruptcies.

Those are things that occupy the minds of the thinking public, if there is such a thing. Polls show “inflation’ is its big concern. Nothing else even comes close.

Ample Dugs: But inflation is not such a big concern for the people who caused it. They can afford $6 gasoline and $7 lattes. What they’re worried about is the next election… in which the voters are likely to be sick of them all. They’re not too worried about baby formula either; they get their nourishment from the federal government’s ample dugs.

So, there they were on the Eurasian steppes – liberal as well as conservative… the Great and the Good… representing both political parties, Congress, and the Biden administration – on a bi-partisan mission to promote war with Russia.

Mitch McConnell claims to represent ‘conservatives’ and says he favors designating Russia a ‘terrorist state.’ The ‘terrorist’ label has been handy ever since George Bush II used it to justify his crackpot War on Terror in 2001. Now, it’s being applied like Round-Up, to wither convenient enemies at home and abroad. It is just a matter of time, we presume, before short sellers and hoarders of baby formula will be sprayed with the ‘terrorist’ epithet too. But for now, the Russians are terrorists. Here’s Mitch McConnell: “It is squarely in our national interest to help Ukraine achieve victory in this war…”

Really? How so? How does the typical American benefit from giving the Ukraine $40 billion? Of course, he doesn’t. So, why do it? Is it just a way to pay off the Pentagon and its suppliers? Or is it a way to distract the voters from their investment losses… higher consumer prices… and the baby formula crisis? Tune in tomorrow..."

"How It Really Is"

Who is most responsible for this horrifying
increase in gas and diesel prices and why?
Related:
Hat tip to The Burning Platform for this material.

Gregory Mannarino, "US Manufacturing Collapses, Economy In Freefall"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 5/19/22:
"US Manufacturing Collapses, Economy In Freefall"

"Empty Shelves Everywhere At Kroger! This Is Crazy! What's Coming?"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 5/19/22:
"Empty Shelves Everywhere At Kroger! 
This Is Crazy! What's Coming?"
"In today's vlog we are at Kroger with empty shelves everywhere! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and some food shortages! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products! "

Canadian Prepper, "Alert: Another Conflict Is Starting Soon"

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 5/19/22:
"Alert: Another Conflict Is Starting Soon"
"There is a new conflict about to flare up and it 
will cause the price of oil to go through the roof."

Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Greg Hunter, "Third of Global Population Killed in Next War Cycle"

"Third of Global Population Killed in Next War Cycle – Charles Nenner"
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner says his analysis shows the world will start a huge war cycle by 2023. This type of war is similar to WWII but much bigger. Nenner explains, “The cycle work I do on wars starts at the Mandarin Empire 3,000 years before Jesus came into this world. The long cycle only picks up the big wars. Wars in Korea and Iraq do not show up. So, I say the big War Cycle is up, and this is going to be a big war because the small ones don’t even show up. So, I am very worried. There was a Jewish prophet that once said, ‘The last war is going to take 8 minutes.’ Nobody took this serious because how can a war last 8 minutes? Now we have an idea why a war can only take 8 minutes. Things could calm down in the short term this summer. Then, next year, it can start full force again, and the whole thing is very dangerous.”

How many casualties will there be in the next world war? Nenner estimates, “It’s very interesting how you calculate something like that. It’s the same way you calculate a cycle in IBM. When you see IBM going down, you can get an upside price target, which we have. You can do the same thing on the war cycle. About one third of the population is not going to survive in this world.”

So, more than 2.5 billion people are going to die in the next world war that is just around the corner? Nenner says, “Yes, the numbers say if you have a world war, it’s going to take out 1/3 of the population.”

On the financial front, Nenner says, “There is a catastrophe going on in bonds. They lost their capital and are not going to get it back. It’s the same thing that is happening in stocks.” Nenner advised to get out of both the bond and stock markets at the beginning of the year, and he was on target. Nenner predicts it’s going to get worse for stocks and bonds. Nenner says the next downside target is “15,000 on the DOW,” and it will eventually hit around “5,000 on the DOW.”

Nenner says food will never be cheaper and expects food shortages and big price increases for years into the future. Nenner also says he thinks oil will keep rising and will hit $150 per barrel, and it could eventually hit “$250” per barrel.

Nenner is still long term bullish on gold and says it will hit “$2,500” in the not-too-distant future. Nenner says if the world goes back on a gold standard, “gold will hit $40,000 per ounce.”

Nenner says people who are getting a pension should expect big cuts in the future and also expect big inflation too. It will be the worst of both worlds.

On top of that, expect civil unrest in America to keep growing. There is much more in the 40 min. interview."

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he goes One-on-One with
renowned cycle analyst and financial expert Charles Nenner:

"35 Signs That Show The Supply Chain Is Dying Right In Front Of Our Eyes"

Full screen recommended.
"35 Signs That Show The Supply Chain 
Is Dying Right In Front Of Our Eyes"
by Epic Economist

"The global supply chain crisis is reaching catastrophic proportions. Since the burst of the sanitary outbreak, supply chains have never caught a break. Lockdowns, port closures, congestion, factory shutdowns, trucking delivery delays, shipping container shortages, and the lack of enough qualified workers have taken a toll on supply chain operations, global manufacturing, and business sales. On top of the problems we already had in 2021, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused severe damages to critical sectors of this gigantic trade network. The system has become extremely fragile, and the combination of dozens of unsolved problems is threatening to push global and local supply chains to a breaking point in 2022. For that reason, we decided to compile very alarming statistics that reveal the factors aggravating shortages, shipping disruptions, and other critical issues causing chokepoints all across the system.

Since 2020, the imbalances between supply and demand have only grown wider, resulting in a major inventory distortion as retailers struggled to anticipate consumer needs - oftentimes, overordering items to prevent shortages. After experiencing extensive shortages and delays, companies in many sectors have boosted their buffer stocks, filling warehouses with products and components as insurance against future disruption. However, consumer trends have greatly shifted, which has left global retailers with an estimated overstock of $626 billion in products that are not selling at the forecasted pace, while the estimated value for out-of-stock items consumers are looking for right now is $1.14 trillion, data from the IHL Group shows. On average, U.S. retail operations have a supply chain accuracy of only 63%. This can result in significant delays and re-stocking issues. For instance, in 2021, 34% of businesses shipped an order late due to selling a product that wasn’t in stock.

While port congestion data for March captures the early effects of the Ukraine crisis, it does not reflect the lockdown in Shanghai. With traffic jams having increased significantly in Chinese ports due to the zero-tolerance policy in China, and in the North Sea due to the conflict in Ukraine, global schedule reliability is expected to drop by 10 percentage points by June, according to Sea Intelligence estimates.

These numbers portray a very gloomy outlook for global supply chains in 2022. We've been witnessing continued disruptions for 24 consecutive months, and as if that wasn't already distressing enough, executives are bracing for much more turbulence this year, as conflicts worldwide escalate, global manufacturing slows down, and the imbalance between supply and demand gets bigger and bigger. The global supply chain breakdown is getting worse by the day, and this means that all of these problems will stay with us for years. Here are 35 Numbers That Expose The Global Supply Chain Breakdown Is Accelerating At A Breathtaking Speed."

"Game Over, Economy Is Toast; Markets Take Huge Losses; FED Destroying Economy; Wealth Destruction"

Jeremiah Babe, 5/18/22:
"Game Over, Economy Is Toast; Markets Take Huge Losses;
 FED Destroying Economy; Wealth Destruction"

Gregory Mannarino, "Panic Selling On Wall Street! The 10-Year Yield NOSEDIVES; F..E..A..R.. Grips The Market"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 5/18/22:
"Panic Selling On Wall Street! 
The 10-Year Yield NOSEDIVES; F..E..A..R.. Grips The Market"

“The Year of Breakdown”

“The Year of Breakdown”
by Brian Maher

"The stairs up and the elevator down. Today the stock market boarded the elevator… again… The Dow Jones careened another 1,164 stomach-wrenched points today - the fifth collapse of at least 800 points this year - and the greatest single-day plunge since 2020. Both the S&P and Nasdaq were crowded into the identical box. Both endured the identical harrows. The S&P plummeted 165 points; the Nasdaq 566.

What accounts for today’s tumults? The consensus answer is inflation. Poor earnings reports by retail behemoths Target and Walmart indicate inflation has consumers on the defense.

Straws in the Wind: CNBC, grimly, despairingly: "Markets returned to heavy selling after two back-to-back quarterly reports from Target and Walmart stoked investor fears of rising inflation. It’s the fifth Dow decline of more than 800 points this year, which all occurred as the stock sell-off intensified within the last one month, according to FactSet data."

Adds Mr. Jack Ablin, founding partner of Cresset Capital: "Any company that relies on households and discretionary purchases will likely suffer this quarter because a lot of discretionary income has been funneled to food and energy prices." We are not one whit surprised.

Is Inflation Really 16%? The official inflation rate goes at 8.3%. Yet if government data-manglers tracked inflation by 1980’s standards - argues Mr. John Williams of ShadowStats - inflation exceeds 16%. Who can fault the consumer for pulling in his oars… and pinching his devalued pennies?

Today’s inflation fits precisely within the timeline of Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke: "The dramatic growth in the U.S. money supply… that began in March 2020 will do what increases in the money supply always do. Money growth will lead in the first instance (one–nine months) to asset price inflation. Then, a second stage will set in. Over a six–18-month period after a monetary injection occurs, economic activity will pick up. Ultimately, the prices of goods and services will increase. That usually takes between 12 and 24 months after the original monetary injection."

Within 24 months of the March 2020 unleashing - on schedule - we were treated to the inflationary deluges presently washing over us.

Americans Are out of Savings: We have held a deep distrust of reports claiming the American consumer is flush. For instance, of the recent New York Times article “For Tens of Millions of Americans, the Good Times Are Right Now.” 

For instance, of the recent Boston Herald article “Economy Shrinks but Job Market, Consumer Spending Remain Strong.”

For instance, of the recent Investing.com article “S&P 500 in Rally Mode on Signs of Strong Consumer; Tech Reigns Supreme.”

Recent credit card data validates our hesitancy. Consumer credit went skyshooting in March, to $52.4 billion. That astounding figure easily doubled the projected $25 billion forecast. It is also the highest figure in recorded annals. If Americans were to their ears in savings, would credit card debt run to record heights? The question is the answer. Let us hazard an additional theory to account for the stock market’s recent tumults.

Bye-Bye, Buybacks: As we have argued before…Stock buybacks accounted for much of the stock market’s lovely run since 2009. Corporations piled up cheap debt under stimulation from the Federal Reserve’s exorbitantly low rates. With this debt they often purchased their own stock… which reduced shares outstanding… and raised the price per share.

Corporations suspended buybacks during the hell days of the pandemic. But buybacks returned last year at a furious and delirious pace. Corporations repurchased $882 billion of stocks last year - a record. Is it then a wonder that the stock market likewise attained record heights last year? But last year is not this year. Stock buybacks (and dividend payouts) wallow at 12-year lows, claims Bank of America. Is it coincidence that the stock market is reeling this year?

Built on Quicksand: Inflation is on the jump… as are interest rates. And rising interest rates can shake the stock market. That is especially true if the stock market rests uneasily upon a quicksand foundation of artificially low interest rates - like this stock market.

Ten-year Treasury yields presently run to 2.88% - down from their recent perch above 3% - yet the highest in three years nonetheless. That 2.88% is nothing against the historical average. Yet it is miles from the historically low 0.53% of July 2020.

Millstones Around the Neck: Thus the cheap debt corporations took on to finance buybacks is no longer so cheap. Rising rates hang heavier debts upon them… millstones upon their necks. These corporations can no longer afford stock buybacks that levitate their stock prices. Who will take up their slack? The answer is very, very far from clear.

Our own Charles Hugh Smith appears prescient. In early January he divined that 2022 represented “the year of breakdown”: "2022 is the year that the second-order effects come home to roost: All the risk that has been transferred to the financial system as a whole will generate consequences the Fed and other central banks are unable to control. The stupendously toxic incentives to speculate will generate consequences the Fed and other central banks are unable to control. The stupendously toxic wealth inequality will generate consequences the Fed and other central banks are unable to control…"

If we look at the fragility and instability of essential systems, it’s clear that 2022 will be the year of breakdown. The year is but five months into the 12, it is true. Yet indications to date lean heavily toward Charles. The Nasdaq Composite is already sunk in a bear market. Both the Dow Jones and S&P have suffered “correction” - a tumbling of 10% or more from recent peaks.

How Come Stocks Only “Correct” Lower? As we have observed before: Stocks are never said to “correct” higher. Only lower. That is, corrections run in one direction only - down. But why? Is not an undervalued market by definition… incorrect? Then should not an accurate reappraisal - a rising market - represent a correction? But in the popular imagination it does not. Corrections only correct downward. Here is our theory…

Getting Away With Something: The term is a subconscious recognition of the market’s tendency to overexcitement, of its constant efforts to slip its leash… Of the animal spirits’ chronic ambition to go amok. When the market rampages, a fellow is dizzied by the thrill of it. And so he lets go. He lets his throttle out. But he is besieged by an inner suspicion. A suspicion, that is, that he is getting away with something…

It is as if his employer has mistakenly added a zero to his paycheck. Or that he has come into possession of stolen property. Or that the mailman has left the neighbor’s package at his door. He knows he must hand it back. And so comes the correction - the inevitable correction. He knows he must hand it back. He is presently handing it back and then some more.

Thus conclude our brief reflections on the word correction. Future reflections will center on the bear market likely to unfold within the coming months…"

"Celente And The Judge", 5/18/22

Full screen recommended.
"Celente And The Judge", 5/18/22
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

Musical Interlude: Afshin, "Prayer of Change"

Full screen recommended.
Afshin, "Prayer of Change"

"A Look to the Heavens"

"The first identified compact galaxy group, Stephan's Quintet is featured in this eye-catching image constructed with data drawn from the extensive Hubble Legacy Archive. About 300 million light-years away, only four of these five galaxies are actually locked in a cosmic dance of repeated close encounters. The odd man out is easy to spot, though. The interacting galaxies, NGC 7319, 7318A, 7318B, and 7317 have an overall yellowish cast. They also tend to have distorted loops and tails, grown under the influence of disruptive gravitational tides. But the predominantly bluish galaxy, NGC 7320, is closer, just 40 million light-years distant, and isn't part of the interacting group.
Stephan's Quintet lies within the boundaries of the high flying constellation Pegasus. At the estimated distance of the quartet of interacting galaxies, this field of view spans about 500,000 light-years. But moving just beyond this field, up and to the right, astronomers can identify another galaxy, NGC 7320C, that is also 300 million light-years distant. Including it would bring the interacting quartet back up to quintet status."

The Poet: Wendell Berry, “Leavings”

“Leavings”

“In time a man disappears
from his lifelong fields, from
the streams he has walked beside,
from the woods where he sat and waited.
Thinking of this, he seems to
miss himself in those places
as if always he has been there.
But first he must disappear,
and this he foresees with hope,
with thanks. Let others come.”

- Wendell Berry
“Perhaps as he was lying awake then, his life may have passed before him - his early hopeful struggles, his manly successes and prosperity, his downfall in his declining years, and his present helpless condition – no chance of revenge against Fortune, which had had the better of him - neither name nor money to bequeath - a spent-out, bootless life of defeat and disappointment, and the end here! Which, I wonder, brother reader, is the better lot, to die prosperous and famous, or poor and disappointed? To have, and to be forced to yield; or to sink out of life, having played and lost the game? That must be a strange feeling, when a day of our life comes and we say, “Tomorrow, success or failure won’t matter much, and the sun will rise, and all the myriads of mankind go to their work or their pleasure as usual, but I shall be out of the turmoil.”
- William Makepeace Thackeray, “Vanity Fair”

"In A Word..."

“In a word, there are many thorns, but the roses are there too.”
- Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky

"MarketWatch Market Summary, 5/18/22: Live Updates"

Click image for larger size.
"MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates"
CNN Market Data:

CNN Fear And Greed Index:
So they'd have you believe...

The Daily "Near You?"

Fort Mohave, Arizona, USA. Thanks for stopping by!