Wednesday, March 9, 2022

The Poet: Wendell Berry, "The Circles Of Our Lives"

"The Circles Of Our Lives"

"Within the circles of our lives
we dance the circles of the years,
the circles of the seasons
within the circles of the years,
the cycles of the moon,
within the circles of the seasons,
the circles of our reasons
within the cycles of the moon.

Again, again we come and go,
changed, changing. Hands
join, unjoin in love and fear,
grief and joy. The circles turn,
each giving into each, into all.

Only music keeps us here,
each by all the others held.
In the hold of hands and eyes
we turn in pairs, that joining
joining each to all again.
And then we turn aside, alone,
out of the sunlight gone
into the darker circles of return,
Within the circles of our lives..."

- Wendell Berry

The Universe

"Friends are friends because they've discovered how much they have in common. Opponents, adversaries, and foes are friends too, who have not yet discovered this. It's as if a band of amazing angels got together, before time even began, to celebrate their common heritage, sense of adventure, creativity and savoir faire, and decided to meet in the distant future, amongst the jungles of time and space, upon a distant little blue planet, to see how long it would take for each and every one of them to discover who they really are. 7 billion angels, to be precise."
"Your friend,"
The Universe

"Thoughts become things... choose the good ones!"

"On The Meridian Of Time..."

“On the meridian of time there is no injustice: there is only the poetry of motion creating the illusion of truth and drama. If at any moment anywhere one comes face to face with the absolute, that great sympathy which makes men like Gautama and Jesus seem divine freezes away; the monstrous thing is not that men have created roses out of this dung heap, but that, for some reason or other, they should want roses. For some reason or other man looks for the miracle, and to accomplish it he will wade through blood. He will debauch himself with ideas, he will reduce himself to a shadow if for only one second of his life he can close his eyes to the hideousness of reality. Everything is endured – disgrace, humiliation, poverty, war, crime, ennui – in the belief that overnight something will occur, a miracle, which will render life tolerable.”
- Henry Miller

Free Download: Seneca, "On The Shortness Of Life"

"Seneca On Coping with the Shortness of Life"
by Jack Maden

"In his brilliant 49 AD essay "On the Shortness of Life" Roman Stoic philosopher Seneca addresses his father-in-law, Paulinus, about the seemingly universal human complaint regarding the shortness of life: we are born, our existences rush swiftly by, and before we know it, we die. In the face of this certain fate, how can we shake off the pervasive suspicion that, however we end up living our brief lives, we’re not making the most of them? How can we keep existential frets and despairs at bay?

Well, Seneca thinks our complaints about the shortness of life aren’t really justified: they reflect not the reality of our situation, but rather our malformed attitudes and responses to it. As he writes: "It is not that we have a short time to live, but that we waste a lot of it. Life is long enough, and a sufficiently generous amount has been given to us for the highest achievements if it were all well invested. But when it is wasted in heedless luxury and spent on no good activity, we are forced at last by death's final constraint to realize that it has passed away before we knew it was passing. So it is: we are not given a short life but we make it short, and we are not ill-supplied but wasteful of it… life is long if you know how to use it."

So, life itself is not short but we make it short. How so? Well, here Seneca points out several human attitudes and behaviors that contribute to the feeling that life is fleeting. Let’s look at each one in turn, before exploring Seneca’s proposed solution for how we can live fulfilled lives and meet death without fear.

We do not fully appreciate the preciousness of time: Firstly, Seneca claims we do not fully appreciate the preciousness of time. We attribute value to things like money, belongings, and property, and guard them closely. But when it comes to our time - which, as Seneca puts it, is “the one thing in which it is right to be stingy” - we squander it without thinking. As he explains: "You are living as if destined to live forever; your own frailty never occurs to you; you don't notice how much time has already passed, but squander it as though you had a full and overflowing supply - though all the while that very day which you are devoting to somebody or something may be your last. You act like mortals in all that you fear, and like immortals in all that you desire."

The money, possessions, and status we chase and trade on in our day-to-day lives do not ultimately give us peace of mind or lasting pleasure. When death approaches, Seneca points out, we would exchange them all for a little more time: "People are delighted to accept pensions and gratuities, for which they hire out their labor or their support or their services. But nobody works out the value of time: men use it lavishly as if it cost nothing. But if death threatens these same people, you will see them praying to their doctors; if they are in fear of capital punishment, you will see them prepared to spend their all to stay alive. So inconsistent are they in their feelings."

Feeble old men pray for a few more years,” Seneca continues: “they pretend they are younger than they are; they comfort themselves by this deception and fool themselves as eagerly as if they fooled Fate at the same time. But when at last some illness has reminded them of their mortality, how terrified do they die, as if they were not just passing out of life but being dragged out of it. They exclaim that they were fools because they have not really lived, and that if only they can recover from this illness they will live in leisure. Then they reflect how pointlessly they acquired things they never would enjoy, and how all their toil has been in vain.”

Why do we leave it until death approaches to suddenly recognize that time is the most precious resource we have? Seneca writes, “If each of us could have the tally of his future years set before him, as we can of our past years, how alarmed would be those who saw only a few years ahead, and how carefully would they use them!”

So why not start using our time more carefully now, rather than waiting until death is round the corner? For all we know, death could be waiting for us tomorrow. Indeed, Seneca says, “It is easy to organize an amount, however small, which is assured; we have to be more careful in preserving what will cease at an unknown point.”

We are preoccupied with a future that doesn’t exist: As well as placing too much value on possessions rather than time, another human attitude that makes life fleeting is that we tend to spend our day-to-day lives looking forward to a future that doesn’t exist. For instance, many of us may have mentally allocated a future portion of our lives, say our retirement years, to when we’ll begin cultivating a more leisurely or fulfilling kind of lifestyle. But this is nonsense, Seneca argues:

"You will hear many people saying: "When I am fifty I shall retire into leisure; when I am sixty I shall give up public duties.’ And what guarantee do you have of a longer life? Who will allow your course to proceed as you arrange it? Aren’t you ashamed to keep for yourself just the remnants of your life, and to devote to wisdom only that time which cannot be spent on any business? How late it is to begin really to live just when life must end! How stupid to forget our mortality, and put off sensible plans to our fiftieth and sixtieth years, aiming to begin life from a point at which few have arrived!"

“No one will bring back the years,” Seneca emphasizes: “no one will restore you to yourself. Life will follow the path it began to take, and will neither reverse nor check its course. It will cause no commotion to remind you of its swiftness, but glide on quietly. It will not lengthen itself for a king’s command or a people’s favor. As it started out on its first day, so it will run on, nowhere pausing or turning aside. What will be the outcome? You have been preoccupied while life hastens on. Meanwhile death will arrive, and you have no choice in making yourself available for that.”

Being preoccupied with the future steals us away from enjoying and finding value in the present. We plan and try to control a future that is ultimately unknowable. We fidget in angst and boredom, frittering our lives away. We drum our fingers, looking ahead to the next event, longing for some kind of future amusement and wishing we could leap over the days in between. Yet when the anticipated event does come, the actual enjoyment is often brief, and as soon as it ends we once again become restless with nothing to do."

In Seneca’s words, we “lose the day in waiting for the night, and the night in fearing the dawn.” Thus he scolds us: "Can anything be more idiotic than certain people who boast of their foresight? They keep themselves officiously preoccupied in order to improve their lives; they spend their lives in organizing their lives. They direct their purposes with an eye to a distant future. But putting things off is the biggest waste of life: it snatches away each day as it comes, and denies us the present by promising the future. The greatest obstacle to living is expectancy, which hangs upon tomorrow and loses today. You are arranging what lies in Fortune's control, and abandoning what lies in yours. What are you looking at? To what goal are you straining? The whole future lies in uncertainty: live immediately."

We give away our lives to things that don’t matter: So far, Seneca has established that we don’t value time, pay too much attention to possessions, and spend much of our lives preoccupied with the future. The next damaging aspect of human attitudes and behavior he targets is our tendency to chase honors and status. We obsess over climbing rank, Seneca argues - be it socially or in our careers. But does acquiring status and honor really add anything of lasting value to our lived experiences?

Ambition begets ambition, Seneca explains. What we strive so hard to achieve will, once we achieve it, never be enough: "It is inevitable that life will be not just very short but very miserable for those who acquire by great toil what they must keep by greater toil. They achieve what they want laboriously; they possess what they have achieved anxiously; and meanwhile they take no account of time that will never more return. New preoccupations take the place of the old, hope excites more hope and ambition more ambition. They do not look for an end to their misery, but simply change the reason for it."

We might delude ourselves into thinking, “once I achieve this, I’ll be happy” — but this is just the same poor reasoning of the preoccupied person. Rather than appreciating what we have and being content now, we put our happiness off for a later date, attaching it to a thing or circumstance beyond our immediate control.

In this cycle of fleeting highs and endless desires, as Seneca puts it, “There will always be causes for anxiety, whether due to prosperity or to wretchedness. Life will be driven on through a succession of preoccupations: we shall always long for leisure, but never enjoy it.”

So, when we hear of ‘successful’ people - people of achievement - we should not envy them, for they have sacrificed their precious lives for something fleeting: “In order that one year may be dated from their names,” Seneca says, “they will waste all their own years.” He concludes:

"As they rob and are robbed, as they disturb each other's peace, as they make each other miserable, their lives pass without satisfaction, without pleasure, without mental improvement. No one keeps death in view, no one refrains from hopes that look far ahead; indeed, some people even arrange things that are beyond life - massive tombs, dedications of public buildings, shows for their funerals, and ostentatious burials. But in truth, such people's funerals should be conducted with torches and wax tapers, as though they had lived the shortest of lives."

So how should we spend our time? The answer for how we should spend our lives, of course, lies in philosophy. “Of all people,” Seneca writes, “only those are at leisure who make time for philosophy, only those are really alive.” And why does Seneca place such value on philosophy as an activity? For three core reasons.

Firstly, by studying philosophy we allow the greatest wisdom from history into our lives, joining the treasures of the past to the glory of the present and thus elongating and enriching time. As Seneca puts it, by studying philosophy “We are led into the presence of things which have been brought from darkness into light. We are excluded from no age, but we have access to them all; and if we are prepared in loftiness of mind to pass beyond the narrow confines of human weakness, there is a long period of time through which we can roam.”

Secondly, we can draw on the rich wisdom of philosophy for guidance on any and all challenges we face today. The writings of past philosophers will always be there, whenever we need them. They take nothing from us, and give to us whatever we need. As Seneca writes: "We can argue with Socrates, express doubt with Carneades, cultivate retirement with Epicurus, overcome human nature with the Stoics, and exceed its limits with the Cynics... None of these will be too busy to see you, none of these will not send his visitor away happier and more devoted to himself, none of these will allow anyone to depart empty-handed. They are at home to all mortals by night and by day."

Instead of chasing the company of those who may waste our time for the sake of status or supposed advancement, we should seek out the writings of humanity’s greatest thinkers instead. “None of these will force you to die,” Seneca notes, “but all will teach you how to die. None of them will exhaust your years, but each will contribute his years to yours. With none of these will conversation be dangerous, or his friendship fatal, or attendance on him expensive… What happiness, what a fine old age awaits the man who has made himself a client of these!”

Lastly, we should study philosophy because the knowledge we obtain - unlike the status or possessions or achievements we chase - is forever. Seneca writes: "Honors, monuments, whatever the ambitious have ordered by decrees or raised in public buildings are soon destroyed: there is nothing that the passage of time does not demolish and remove. But it cannot damage the works which philosophy has consecrated: no age will wipe them out, no age diminish them."

So living the life of a philosopher will grant us a full and long life, Seneca thinks, for “he is not confined by the same boundary as are others. He alone is free from the laws that limit the human race, and all ages serve him as though he were a god. Some time has passed: he grasps it in his recollection. Time is present: he uses it. Time is to come: he anticipates it. This combination of all times into one gives him a long life.”

As the Roman philosopher Lucretius also argues in his advocation of Epicureanism, when we treat time wisely and with respect, death becomes nothing to fear. However, for those who have no time for philosophy, life will be very short indeed: “Life is very short and anxious for those who forget the past, neglect the present, and fear the future,” Seneca writes. “When they come to the end of it, the poor wretches realize too late that for all this time they have been preoccupied in doing nothing.”

Where do Seneca’s words leave us? Seneca’s forceful words are intended to jolt us away from living preoccupied lives. He argues that we hustle our lives along, denying the present and longing for the future. But if we recognize the preciousness of time and spend it attending to our own needs rather than chasing fleeting desires, if we organize every day as if it were our last, if we meditate on the wisdom of philosophy and embrace the present, then we can live long, rich, and fulfilling lives - even if their actual duration is short.

As Seneca reminds us: "You must not think a man has lived long because he has white hair and wrinkles: he has not lived long, just existed long. For suppose you should think that a man had had a long voyage who had been caught in a raging storm as he left harbor, and carried hither and thither and driven round and round in a circle by the rage of opposing winds? He did not have a long voyage, just a long tossing about."

Seneca’s "On the Shortness of Life", though written almost 2,000 years ago, feels like it could have been written yesterday, so relevant is it to the same fears we live with today. Packed full of timeless wisdom about how to live a good life, it thoroughly rewards close reading.

Do you agree with Seneca’s arguments throughout? Do you think he’s successful in remedying some of our concerns about the shortness of life? Is it entirely clear that Seneca’s solution - attending to the present and studying philosophy - will help us overcome our preoccupations? Should we only invest our time in ourselves? Is it misguided to dedicate our lives to something other than ourselves? Or do you think Seneca’s point is more about removing inauthentic or fleeting pursuits from our lives, and placing value on things that truly endure and matter instead?"

Freely download "On The Shortness Of Life", by Seneca, here:

If you’d like to explore these questions further or learn more about Stoicism generally, check out our reading list on Stoic philosophy, which features the best five books of and about Stoicism. Hit the link below to access it now!

"And There Comes A Time..."

“Cowardice asks the question, 'Is it safe?' Expediency asks the question, 'Is it politic?' Vanity asks the question, 'Is it popular?' But, conscience asks the question, 'Is it right?' And there comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but one must take it because one's conscience tells one that it is right.”
- Martin Luther King Jr.

The Daily "Near You?"

Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada. Thanks for stopping by!

"The End of the Road"

"The End of the Road"
by Bill Bonner

San Martin, Argentina -  "As expected, first it was the’ Covid supply chain disruptions;’ now the White House aims to blame Vladimir Putin. The Washington Post: "Biden frequently named the Russian president as he explained his decision [to cut off Russian oil.] “Putin’s war is already hurting American families at the gas pump,” he said. “Since Putin began his military buildup on Ukrainian borders - just since then - the price of the gas at the pump in America went up 75 cents. And with this action, it’s going to go up further. I’m going to do everything I can to minimize Putin’s price hike here at home.”

You can fool most of the people most of the time, said Abraham Lincoln. And that’s plenty for government work. With the complicity of the White House, Congress and the Fed, inflation will continue while the feds continue to lie about what causes it.

Colleague Dan Denning comments: "The national average of gasoline prices was up 52% before the invasion of Ukraine. It's up 18.8% since then (much higher in CA etc.). That's what happens when you take 4-5 million barrels per day off the markets. Crude is up 124% since Uncle Joe was sworn in."

Inflation is Putin's fault? How about the 90% increase in the monetary base since September of 2019? From $3.2 trillion to $6.1 trillion. 80% of all dollars in circulation in history printed in this time.
 (Source: Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve)

Gold rose to over $2,000 an ounce. The CRB, the commodity index, is up 140% so far this year – the biggest supply shock in more than a century. And a recession is now “baked in the cake.” More in a moment…

The End of the Road: We arrived back in our South American bolt-hole yesterday. We took the road over the mountain, which is a little faster, but tiring, with snaky twists and turns as you work your way up to the top. Once there, the weather and the topography change completely. From the cloudy, humid, almost jungle-like greenery of the Lerma Valley, you arrive on the high desert in full sun, with the wind whipping across immense plains.

Then, we turned off the main road for a short cut. A hand-painted sign warned that it was “Only for 4-wheel drive trucks.” But it saved an hour, so we decided to give it a chance. The road was not too bad… cutting through badlands in order to get down to the Calchaqui Valley on the other side of the mountains. In one or two spots, deep sand required 4 x 4 traction.

We’ve been away for almost two years, but time moves slowly in the valley. In his recollections of traveling in the area in the early 20th century, Juan Carlos Davalos recounts how his ‘30s-vintage Ford got stuck while crossing these same washed-out roads.

Antonio, the farm manager, greeted us at the large barn when we arrived. In a few moments, it was as if we had never left. Antonio had just been up to the farm in the mountains (the two farms touch each other, but one is 2,000 feet higher, where we raise cattle; the other is down in the valley, where we raise the hay to feed them.)

“Very sad,” he said. “That Carlos died. We went to pay our respects to the family.” Last week, Carlos, a young ranch hand with a wife and two children, drowned in the reservoir. How? Why? The police ruled it an accident. But the water was only about 4 feet deep. “Everybody wants to believe it was an accident,” said a shrewd neighbor, later in the day. “So, what do you think happened,” we asked. He bent his head, raised his eyebrows and said no more. “You can’t cross the river,” Antonio warned. So we loaded our things on the back of a small wagon, hitched to our new Massey Ferguson tractor.
(“Your carriage awaits.” Photo: Bill)
(Crossing the river. Photo: Bill)
(Elizabeth Bonner arrives in style. Photo: Bill)

On the other side of the river, it is as pleasant as ever. A line of alamos (a type of poplar) run up on either side of the driveway. Green fields – lush with clover – stretch out on both sides. And there on the hill is our house – rescued from ruin, surrounded by stout columns; it is a handsome reminder of the valley’s colonial past. And there, cut off from the wide world by 4 hours of dirt roads and the rushing water of the Calchaqui River, we settle into our office and take stock.

Let them Eat Cake: As the price of gasoline rises, the rich – who live in the best zip-codes – barely notice. The poor and middle classes – who were lured to further-out suburbs by lower housing prices, are hit hard. And now worse may be coming. Rabobank researchers see more inflation and a recession on the way: "…historical experience also suggests that once the inflation genie is out of the bottle, economic growth has a tendency to slow down regardless of the policy reaction. It happened in 1974/75; it happened 1980/81; and again in 1992, 2008, and 2011. It suggests that ‘soft landings’ are very difficult to achieve."

An inflation-caused recession may already be “baked in the cake,” they conclude. And what else is in that cake? That is the major theme of the decade ahead – rising prices, recession, the destruction of America’s middle class, the decline of the US empire… and the increasing corruption of its political life.

Most likely, the Elite Establishment will continue to point fingers at Vladimir Putin… at ‘greedy corporations’… at Republicans… at Democrats… and inflation will get worse. Even after the conflict on the Eurasian steppes is resolved, the US is likely to continue its sanctions and meddling. Remember, it’s ‘inflate or die.’ An ‘emergency’ – even a trumped-up one – gives it cover to continue inflating. In a few months, however, it will probably be obvious where this is headed. Then, the Fed will be forced to take more serious measures. And then, all hell will break loose. Just a guess… Stay tuned."

"The Point..."

 

"5 Very Strange Questions That Every American Should Be Asking About The War In Ukraine Right Now"

"5 Very Strange Questions That Every American 
Should Be Asking About The War In Ukraine Right Now"
by Michael Snyder

"Have you noticed that the anti-war movement in the United States has almost shriveled up to nothing? In the old days, hordes of radical leftists were passionately against our wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, but these days many on the left seem to want war with Russia more than anyone else. But before we find ourselves pulled into a war that could have catastrophic implications for the entire planet, perhaps we should take a step back from the precipice and reflect on what we are about to do. The Russians have spent an enormous amount of time, money and energy developing a new generation of extremely advanced nuclear weapons, and Vladimir Putin has already warned us that he is willing to use them. And once one side or the other uses nuclear weapons, there will be no going back.

This is such a critical moment in our history. If we make the wrong decisions now, there may not be a future for our country. So instead of responding emotionally to what is going on, we desperately need to analyze the situation with cool heads. The following are 5 very strange questions that every American should be asking about the war in Ukraine right now…

#1 Are we ready for hundreds of millions of people to perish in a conflict with Russia? Harry Kazianis has participated in many war games over the years, and in 2019 he had the opportunity to participate in one which simulated what would happen if a war between NATO and Russia erupted in Ukraine. According to Kazianis, the simulation resulted in more than a billion deaths…

"Over just three days, as I have done countless times over the last several years, a group of past and present senior U.S. government officials from both sides of the aisle gathered to wage a NATO-Russia war in a simulation at the end of 2019. In the course of what we called the NATO-Russia War of 2019, we estimated one billion people died. And if we aren’t careful, what happened in a simulation could happen if a NATO-Russia war erupts over Ukraine.

In fact, in the simulation I mentioned above from 2019, in which Russia invades Ukraine in a similar way as it did over the last week or so, not only does NATO get sucked in unintentionally, but Russia eventually releases nuclear weapons in its desperation. The result is an eventual escalation of bigger and more dangerous nuclear weapons whereby over one billion lives are lost."

#2 If we provide fighter jets to Ukraine will that mean that we get sucked into a shooting war with Russia? U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has previously stated that the U.S. would be willing to replace any MiG-29 fighter jets that Poland sends to Ukraine with new American-made fighter jets, and now Poland has put a unique twist on that proposal. Apparently the Polish government wants to give the MiG-29 fighter jets to us, and then we would be the ones delivering them to the Ukrainians. But if we actually did this, would this make us an active participant in the conflict?

Poland said on Tuesday that it was ready to deploy - immediately and free of charge - all their MiG-29 fighter jets to the US Air Force’s Ramstein Air Base in Germany and place them at the disposal of Washington to provide them to Ukraine, according to a statement from the Polish foreign ministry.

#3 Why are al-Qaeda fighters being allowed to fight for Ukraine? In the old days, we were told that al-Qaeda was the most evil terror organization on the entire planet, but now they are apparently on our side. It is being reported that 450 al-Qaeda fighters have already arrived in Ukraine, and nobody in the western media seems to have a problem with this… "Close to 450 extremist Arab and foreign nationals have arrived in Ukraine from Idlib to fight against Russia’s forces, less than only three days after they left Syria, passing through Turkey.

Relatives of extremists that have arrived in Ukraine told Sputnik that senior fighters from terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (the rebranded version of Jabhat Al-Nusra, i.e Al-Qaeda) have held a number of meetings with senior leaders in the Turkistan Islamic Party group and Ansar Al-Tawhid and Hurras al-Din groups, and agreed on allowing a number of all their fighters to enter Ukraine through Turkish soil."

#4 Does the United States really have 26 biological research labs in Ukraine? The Chinese government is making this accusation, and if it is true someone out there has a lot of explaining to do. Because there is absolutely no reason why the U.S. should be conducting dangerous biological research in Ukraine at all, much less at 26 different facilities. But according to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, this is precisely what has been going on… “The US has 336 labs in 30 countries under its control, including 26 in Ukraine alone. It should give a full account of its biological military activities at home and abroad and subject itself to multilateral verification.”

#5 Why are Chinese media outlets embedding reporters with Russian military units that are participating in the invasion of Ukraine? Normally, reporters are only embedded with forces that are considered to be friendly. For example, it would be unthinkable for reporters from the United States to be embedded among the Russians. But apparently the Chinese see this conflict much differently…

"BREAKING: CCP media outlets are now embedding with Russian troops as they encircle Ukrainian cities Are you paying attention yet? pic.twitter.com/uFLfoOkRJX - Jack Posobiec 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) March 8, 2022"

It is important to note that the Chinese have refused to denounce what Russia has done. In fact, they aren’t even calling it an “invasion” at all. Unfortunately, I think that we all know why this is happening. The Chinese are planning to invade Taiwan at some point, and so they are watching how this current conflict plays out very, very carefully. The Russians and the Chinese have been working to develop closer relations for a long time, and when China finally pulls the trigger on an invasion of Taiwan the U.S. could find itself in a state of conflict with both of them simultaneously. Many in Washington would be absolutely shocked by such a development, but this is something that I have been talking about for a very long time.

In recent years the U.S. has grown extremely complacent, and meanwhile the Russians and the Chinese have both been rapidly modernizing and upgrading their military forces. Now World War 3 has suddenly erupted, and Russia and China both sense an opportunity to change the game thanks to the incompetence of the Biden administration."

"We WERE There..."

"Someday stars will wind down or blow up. Someday death will cover us all like the water of a lake and perhaps nothing will ever come to the surface to show that we were ever there. But we WERE there, and during the time we lived, we were alive. That's the truth - what is, what was, what will be - not what could be, what should have been, what never can be."
- Orson Scott Card
 
"Now the voices and the sound of movement were gone, and the stream could be heard running quietly under its banks. The air was full of the scent of water and of flowers. She walked, quiet, while the house began to reverberate: a band had started up. She walked beside the river while the music thudded, feeling herself as a heavy, impervious, insensitive lump that, like a planet doomed always to be dark on one side, had vision in front only, a myopic searchlight blind except for the tiny three-dimensional path open immediately before her eyes in which the outline of a tree, a rose, emerged then submerged in dark. She thought, with the dove's voices of her solitude. Where? But where. How? Who? No, but where, where… Then silence and the birth of a repetition. Where? Here. Here? Herewhere else, you fool, you poor fool, where else has it been, ever…?"
- Doris Lessing

"How It Really Is"

 

Gregory Mannarino, "Be Ready! Global Debt Will Double From Here - Rapidly. This Is What You Need To Know"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 3/9/22:
"Be Ready! Global Debt Will Double From Here - Rapidly. 
This Is What You Need To Know"

"Gas Prices Hit $7 In Some US Cities"

Full screen recommended.
Fox News, "Gas Prices Hit $7 In Some US Cities"
Full screen recommended.
Tucker Carlson, "You Are About To Get A Lot Poorer"
"Fox News host reacts to Biden banning Russian oil and natural gas imports."

"Major Shortages At Target, And Prices Are Getting Ridiculous!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, AM 3/9/22:
"Major Shortages At Target, And Prices Are Getting Ridiculous!"

"Putin’s Options"

"Putin’s Options"
by Jim Rickards

"There’s no doubt that the financial sanctions put on Russia by the U.S., the U.K., EU members and others are the most severe ever imposed. The U.S. Treasury has announced 15 separate sanctions programs in recent days and no doubt more are on the way. The targets of these sanctions include Russian banks, Russian stocks and bonds and various payment channels. Most significantly, the U.S. froze the accounts of the Central Bank of Russia. That’s the first time a major central bank’s assets have been frozen since the Cold War, and possibly ever.

Yet the financial attacks on Russia go far beyond official sanctions. Numerous private companies including Microsoft, Exxon Mobil, Shell and some major airlines have ceased their business activities in Russia. Visa and Mastercard have stopped accepting credit card charges from Russia. Google and Apple have turned off the mobile payment apps on phones held by Russian citizens.

Shipping giant Maersk has stopped its vessels from unloading or taking cargo from Russian ports. Stock index funds are pushing Russian companies out of their indexes and the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is divesting Russian stocks. The list of public and private embargoes and boycotts goes on. The financial impact on Russia will be extreme. The Russian economy may be expected to collapse by 20% or more in the first half of 2022, an amount comparable to the economic collapses in the second quarter of 2020 during the first lockdown stage of the pandemic.

The Sanctions Boomerang: But Russia has not stood still. The Central Bank of Russia imposed capital controls so that Russian companies cannot pay interest or principal on international debts. That means those loans and bonds may soon go into default. Many such securities may be stuffed into 401(k) plans of Americans under the umbrella of “emerging markets” funds or ETFs. Even more important is the possibility that interbank lending may start to dry up as Russian banks are frozen and Western banks reduce leverage and shrink balance sheets in order to reduce risk.

This will lead to defaults in the West and could even mark the beginning of a global liquidity crisis that can only be contained by Federal Reserve currency swap lines, like we saw in the early stages of the pandemic when markets were collapsing. But even that technique may not work since there are no swap arrangements in place between the Fed and the Central Bank of Russia. The shooting war may or may not be over soon, but the financial war has just started and will continue after the shooting stops.

For that matter, a global financial panic may emerge even before the shooting stops. We all see what's happening on the surface. Here's what you don't see: Someone is on the wrong side of every one of those trades. Hedge funds and banks are losing billions and are sinking. It takes about a week for bodies to float to the surface. And foreign investors who try to sell Russian companies will find that their sales are blocked. Russia imposed capital controls so that Russian borrowers cannot pay their creditors in dollars or euros.

So yes, sanctions will hurt Russia. But like a boomerang, those same sanctions can hurt the U.S. economy, which is on shaky ground as it is. It’s almost like cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Russia Still Has Options: And Russia can work around the sanctions to obtain at least some access to the global financial system. The main loophole is that Russia may still receive dollar payments for oil and natural gas. Those payments may be frozen inside the central bank, but they can still be received and added to Russia’s reserves.

Russia can also transact outside the SWIFT messaging system using older technologies such as telex and internet channels outside of SWIFT. Russians can also transact through Chinese and other banks that have not joined the sanctions.

Also, Russia’s official media report that Putin seeks to establish a ban on the export of certain products and raw materials outside the country by the end of 2022. Besides oil and natural gas, Russia exports substantial amounts of food crops and precious metals used in industrial production like aluminum, titanium, palladium, platinum, nickel, cobalt and copper.

This is the most important move yet. Consumers are familiar with the retail end of the supply chain. But they aren't as familiar with the input end. If you can't source the raw materials, you can produce finished goods. For example, the farmers who grow food and raise livestock and the butchers and food processors who prepare that output into meat, poultry, bread and dairy products are not the source of the supply; they are intermediaries. The source of the supply chain is in fertilizers made from chemicals, especially nitrogen and phosphate.

Any break or bottleneck anywhere in this supply chain will result in either higher prices or empty shelves at the consumer end. If Russian nitrogen exports are diminished and prices soar, that has a global impact including on U.S. farms. The impact of higher fertilizer prices does not stop with grain. Most grains are used not for direct consumption by humans but as feed grains for livestock. That means the fertilizer price increase will flow through to meat, poultry, eggs and dairy products.

These breaks are already occurring. Russia and Ukraine together provide more than 25% of the wheat supply in world trade and 20% of global corn sales. Ukrainian exports are already in disarray because of the war and Russian exports are being handicapped by the sanctions.

Don’t Forget About Russia’s Gold: Finally, Russia has $150 billion in official physical gold bullion. This gold cannot easily be sold or bartered, but it can be leased or used as collateral for hard-currency loans. The latest dumb idea out of Washington is to freeze Russian gold. But the gold is physical and it's inside Russia. The only way to freeze it is to leave it outside in the winter. You can freeze dollar-sale proceeds, but Russia's a buyer not a seller. It can buy gold directly from Russian mines. And Russia can use parallel loan structures (which haven’t been used much since the 1970s) where a lender inside Russia can also be a borrower outside Russia in a separate transaction with the obligations netted out.

None of this is efficient relative to a normally functioning system, but it does work. The bottom line is that the Russian economy will muddle through despite the sanctions, although with higher costs, more risk and less liquidity. The main point for investors to understand is the damage will not be confined to Russia. These inefficiencies and this illiquidity will ripple out to all parts of the global financial system.

Investors should prepare now with larger allocations to cash and gold and by reducing stock market exposure. It’s a good idea to build up your own liquidity before the wave of defaults and margin calls hits home."
Full screen recommended.
"Russia Responds to West's Oil Bans and 
Gas Curbs With Some of Its Own Sanctions"

"I Know Not..."

Tuesday, March 8, 2022

Free Download: Nevil Shute, "On the Beach"

"On the Beach"
by Wikipedia

"'On the Beach' is a post-apocalyptic novel published in 1957, written by British author Nevil Shute after he emigrated to Australia. The novel details the experiences of a mixed group of people in Melbourne as they await the arrival of deadly radiation spreading towards them from the Northern Hemisphere, following a nuclear war the previous year. As the radiation approaches, each person deals with impending death differently.

The phrase "on the beach" is a Royal Navy term that means "retired from the Service." The title also refers to T. S. Eliot's poem "The Hollow Men", which includes the lines:

"In this last of meeting places
We grope together
And avoid speech
Gathered on this beach of the tumid river."

Printings of the novel, including the first 1957 edition by William Morrow and Company, New York, contain extracts from Eliot's poem on the title page, under Shute's name, including the above quotation and the concluding lines:

"This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper."

Freely download, "On The Beach", by Nevil Shute, here:
Full screen recommended.
"On The Beach" complete movie.
"Although there'd been "doomsday dramas" before it, Stanley Kramer's "On the Beach" was considered the first "important" entry in this genre when originally released in 1959. Based on the novel by Nevil Shute, the film is set in the future (1964) when virtually all life on earth has been exterminated by the radioactive residue of a nuclear holocaust. Only Australia has been spared, but it's only a matter of time before everyone Down Under also succumbs to radiation poisoning. With only a short time left on earth, the Australian population reacts in different ways: some go on a nonstop binge of revelry, while others eagerly consume the suicide pills being issued by the government. When the possibility arises that rains have washed the atmosphere clean in the Northern hemisphere, a submarine commander (Gregory Peck) and his men head to San Diego, where faint radio signals have been emanating. The movie's all-star cast includes: Peck as the stalwart sub captain, Ava Gardner as his emotionally disturbed lover, Fred Astaire as a guilt-wracked nuclear scientist, and Anthony Perkins and Donna Anderson as the "just starting out in life" married couple."

"Nukemap"

Click image for larger size.
"Nukemap"
by Alex Wellerstein

"Effect distances for a 1.2 megaton airburst:

Detonation altitude: 3,320 m. (Chosen to maximize the 5 psi range)

Fireball radius: 1.04 km (3.39 km²): Maximum size of the nuclear fireball; relevance to damage on the ground depends on the height of detonation. If it touches the ground, the amount of radioactive fallout is significantly increased. Anything inside the fireball is effectively vaporized. Minimum burst height for negligible fallout: 0.94 km.

Moderate blast damage radius (5 psi): 7.47 km (175 km²): At 5 psi overpressure, most residential buildings collapse, injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread. The chances of a fire starting in commercial and residential damage are high, and buildings so damaged are at high risk of spreading fire. Often used as a benchmark for moderate damage in cities. Optimal height of burst to maximize this effect is 3.32 km.

Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns): 13.2 km (547 km²): Third degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin, and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. They can cause severe scarring or disablement, and can require amputation. 100% probability for 3rd degree burns at this yield is 11.4 cal/cm2.

Light blast damage radius (1 psi): 21 km (1,390 km²): At a around 1 psi overpressure, glass windows can be expected to break. This can cause many injuries in a surrounding population who comes to a window after seeing the flash of a nuclear explosion (which travels faster than the pressure wave). Often used as a benchmark for light damage in cities. Optimal height of burst to maximize this effect is 4.97 km."
Utilize the Nukemap here:

Gerald Celente, "Negotiate For Peace Or Rest in Peace"

Full screen recommended.
Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente,
"Negotiate For Peace Or Rest in Peace"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

"This is Terrifying And It's Destroying the Global Economy"

Steven Van Metre,
"This is Terrifying And It's Destroying the Global Economy"

"China Food Shortage Accelerates! Prepare Yourself For Worldwide Starvation"

Full screen recommended.
"China Food Shortage Accelerates! 
Prepare Yourself For Worldwide Starvation"
by Epic Economist

"The global food crisis continues to get worse by the day. On top of the severe disruptions caused by the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine on food supply chains, Chinese authorities are warning that the world is about to experience an extensive shortage of grains as winter weather conditions are set to be “the worst in history” this year in China, which could lead to the destruction of millions of acres of grain crops at a time global prices are already at record highs, while freight and shipping rates are soaring again, and supplies are getting tighter and tighter.

In a recent statement, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned that global food markets are about to face a massive shock as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifies and this year’s harvest might get impacted by the worst winter weather on record. For that reason, Xi said that China is no longer relying on exports to ensure its food security. The Chinese leader highlighted that food security is now the top national priority while speaking to national advisers at the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.

“Vigilance in food security must not slacken, we must not think that food ceases being an issue after industrialization, and we cannot count on international supplies to solve the problem,” he said. “We must plan ahead by adhering to the principles of domestic production and self-reliance while ensuring an appropriate level of imports and technology-backed development.”

His speech came as China’s Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Tang Renjian reported to Reuters that the condition of the country’s winter wheat crop is extremely worrying, raising concerns about grain supplies in the world’s biggest wheat consumer. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the Chinese regime’s annual political meeting, Tang said that heavy rainfall delayed the planting of nearly one-third of the normal wheat acreage.

“A survey of the winter wheat crop taken before the start of winter found that the amount of first- and second-grade crop was down by more than 20 percentage points,” Tang revealed. "Not long ago we went to the grassroots to do a survey and many farming experts and technicians told us that crop conditions this year could be the worst in history," he added.

A combination of factors that is likely to cause unprecedented chaos all over the planet. It’s safe to say that all hell is about to break loose. And not only food producers will be affected, but soon, your local grocery store might be impacted too. Once U.S. consumers realize that food prices are doubling or tripling, grocery shelves will be wiped out faster than it happened at the peak of the health crisis.

If we can offer a little piece of advice: buy flour, rice, barley, and any other grains you can still find now, rather than waiting weeks or months to buy them. The countries that have food supplies are no longer giving them away, and those that don't are going to find themselves in the middle of an epic food crisis sooner rather than later. Be prepared!"

Must Watch! "All Hell Is Breaking Loose; Markets Must Crash; Trade Deficit Alarming; Consumers Suffocated"

Full screen recommended.
Jeremiah Babe, PM 3/8/22:
"All Hell Is Breaking Loose; Markets Must Crash; 
Trade Deficit Alarming; Consumers Suffocated"

Musical Interlude: 2002, “Challenge From Heaven”

Full screen recommended.
2002, “Challenge From Heaven”

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Stars are sometimes born in the midst of chaos. About 3 million years ago in the nearby galaxy M33, a large cloud of gas spawned dense internal knots which gravitationally collapsed to form stars. NGC 604 was so large, however, it could form enough stars to make a globular cluster. 


Many young stars from this cloud are visible in the above image from the Hubble Space Telescope, along with what is left of the initial gas cloud. Some stars were so massive they have already evolved and exploded in a supernova. The brightest stars that are left emit light so energetic that they create one of the largest clouds of ionized hydrogen gas known, comparable to the Tarantula Nebula in our Milky Way's close neighbor, the Large Magellanic Cloud.”

“As I’ve Aged"

“As I’ve Aged"
- Author Unknown

“You ask me how it feels to grow older. I’ve learned a few things along the way, which I’ll share with you…

As I’ve aged, I’ve become kinder to myself, and less critical of myself. I’ve become my own friend. I don’t chide myself for eating that extra cookie, or for not making my bed, or for buying that silly cement gecko that I didn’t need, but looks so avante-garde on my patio. I am entitled to a treat, to be messy, to be extravagant.

I have seen too many dear friends leave this world too soon, before they understood the great freedom that comes with aging. Whose business is it if I choose to read or play on the computer until 4 AM and sleep until noon? I will dance with myself to those wonderful tunes of many years ago, and if I, at the same time, wish to weep over a lost love… I will.

I will walk the beach in a swim suit that is stretched over a bulging body, and will dive into the waves with abandon if I choose to, despite the pitying glances from the jet set. They, too, will get old.

I know I am sometimes forgetful. But there again, some of life is just as well forgotten. And I eventually remember the important things. Sure, over the years my heart has been broken. How can your heart not break when you lose a loved one, or when a child suffers, or even when somebody’s beloved pet gets hit by a car? But broken hearts are what give us strength and understanding and compassion. A heart never broken is pristine and sterile and will never know the joy of being imperfect.

I am so blessed to have lived long enough to have my hair turning gray, and to have my youthful laughs be forever etched into deep grooves on my face. So many have never laughed, and so many have died before their hair could turn silver.

As you get older, it is easier to be positive. You care less about what other people think. I don’t question myself anymore. I’ve even earned the right to be wrong. So, to answer your question, I like being old. It has set me free. I like the person I have become. I am not going to live forever, but while I am still here, I will not waste time lamenting what could have been, or worrying about what will be. And I shall eat dessert every single day (if I feel like it). May our friendship never come apart especially when it’s straight from the heart!”

"All That's Left..."

In the movie “The Lion in Winter”, when the sons, in the dungeon, 
think they hear Henry coming down the stairs to kill them:

Richard: "He's here! He'll get no satisfaction out of us! Don't let him see you beg...Take it like a man!
Geoffrey: "You chivalric fool! As if the way one falls down matters!"
Richard: "Well, when the fall is all that's left, it matters a great deal."

Free Download: George Orwell, “1984″

“What opinions the masses hold, or do not hold,
is looked on as a matter of indifference. They can be
granted intellectual liberty because they have no intellect.”

To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulness while telling carefully constructed lies, to hold simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradictory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it, to believe that democracy was impossible and that the Party was the guardian of democracy, to forget whatever it was necessary to forget, then to draw it back into memory again at the moment when it was needed, and then promptly to forget it again: and above all, to apply the same process to the process itself – that was the ultimate subtlety: consciously to induce unconsciousness, and then, once again, to become unconscious of the act of hypnosis you had just performed. Even to understand the word “doublethink” involved the use of doublethink.”
George Orwell, 
“Nineteen Eighty-Four: A Novel” (1949)
Freely download “1984″, by George Orwell here:

"Oceania Has Always Been At War With Russia" (Excerpt)

"Oceania Has Always Been At War With Russia" (Excerpt)
by Doug “Uncola” Lynn

"We’ll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false." – William J. Casey, 1913-1987, Director, CIA (Republican), Statement at his first CIA staff meeting, 1981

"And ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars…"
– King James Bible, Matthew 24:6

"In the years prior to the new millennium, most readers of George Orwell’s novel “1984” would have considered the book to be a stark warning to mankind. However, in light of world events over the last 22 years it appears Orwell’s book was, instead, an instruction manual for the world’s financial elite. The setting of 1984 took place in a futuristic, post-apocalyptic Great Britain which was a part of “Oceania”, a world super-state alternately engaged in never-ending warfare with two other global powers: Eurasia and Eastasia.

The INSOC Party was a totalitarian regime led by a figurehead known only as “Big Brother” and the “Ministry of Truth” promoted war hysteria to unite the citizens of Oceania by continuously broadcasting propaganda that simultaneously subverted autonomous thought and action.

Today, it appears the U.S. Military Industrial Complex of which President Dwight D. Eisenhower warned in his 1961 farewell address, has assumed the role of Orwell’s Oceania; along with the other English-speaking nations that comprise the “Five Eyes” global surveillance network: Great Britain, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. In endless propaganda purveyed to rile and unify the masses, this Anglo intelligence apparatus ostensibly wages war against Islamic terror, Russia, China, and Covid-19, alternately, contingent upon which puppet politicians are appointed to rule at any given time."
Please view this complete, most highly recommended, article here:

Gregory Mannarino, "The Next Engineered Crisis: Prepare Now For Food Shortages And Skyrocketing Energy Prices"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 3/8/22:
"The Next Engineered Crisis: Prepare Now 
For Food Shortages And Skyrocketing Energy Prices"

The Daily "Near You?"

Ravena, New York, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"The Life Of Man..."

"The life of Man is a long march through the night, surrounded by invisible foes, tortured by weariness and pain, towards a goal that few can hope to reach, and where none may tarry long. One by one, as they march, our comrades vanish from our sight, seized by the silent orders of omnipotent Death. Very brief is the time in which we can help them, in which their happiness or misery is decided. Be it ours to shed sunshine on their path, to lighten their sorrows by the balm of sympathy, to give them the pure joy of a never-tiring affection, to strengthen failing courage, to instill faith in times of despair."
- Bertrand Russell