Tuesday, January 18, 2022

"A Look to the Heavens"

“What will become of these galaxies? Spiral galaxies NGC 5426 and NGC 5427 are passing dangerously close to each other, but each is likely to survive this collision. Typically when galaxies collide, a large galaxy eats a much smaller galaxy. In this case, however, the two galaxies are quite similar, each being a sprawling spiral with expansive arms and a compact core. As the galaxies advance over the next tens of millions of years, their component stars are unlikely to collide, although new stars will form in the bunching of gas caused by gravitational tides.
Close inspection of the above image taken by the 8-meter Gemini-South Telescope in Chile shows a bridge of material momentarily connecting the two giants. Known collectively as Arp 271, the interacting pair spans about 130,000 light years and lies about 90 million light-years away toward the constellation of Virgo. Recent predictions hold that our Milky Way Galaxy will undergo a similar collision with the neighboring Andromeda Galaxy in a few billion years.”

Chet Raymo, “Angling For Happiness”

“Angling For Happiness”
by Chet Raymo

“There is a concept in physics called angle of repose. Set an object, a book say, on a plank. Now slowly tip up one end of the plank until the moment when the book just starts to slide. The angle between the plank and the horizontal is the angle of repose, where the component of the gravitational force down the plank becomes greater than the maximum friction force holding the book at rest. Or, in more evocative terms - as I write I am lying on the couch with the laptop in my lap, in perfect repose. If you started tipping up the couch, at some point I'd go sliding into a heap at the bottom. That's the angle of repose, or perhaps it would be more accurate to call it the angle of the end of repose.

This comes to mind because I just spent fifteen minutes on my knees in the yard watching ants excavate a nest in the ground. One by one they scurry out of the hole carrying a tiny grain of sand, which they dump in a ring around the hole. A circular pile. Now if the ants just dumped their burdens at the mouth of the hole, pretty soon the pile would get so steep that the sand grains would slide back into the hole. Instead, the circular ring gets higher and wider, with a slope that never exceeds the angle at which the grains will slip - the angle of repose. Now here's the thing: the ants almost invariably carry their grain to just beyond the top of the pile. If the grain slips, it will slide away from the hole. These tiny ants, hardly bigger than sand grains themselves, understand a little physics in their mysterious instinctive way.

Wallace Stegner has a novel titled "Angle of Repose." It is indeed an evocative phrase. In a job, in a relationship, in life itself, many of us instinctively seek that maximum degree of individual gratification that will satisfy emotional needs without doing violence to our essential repose, and that of those around us - the art of walking close to the edge, the thrill without the spill. Every day in the news we hear of folks - politicians or celebrities - who tipped the plank too far, whose lives went sliding into self-destruction, who failed to grasp, metaphorically speaking, something that a tiny ant instinctively understands.”

Gregory Mannarino, "Oh No! The Stock Market Falls, So What Should You Do Now?"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 1/18/22:
"Oh No! The Stock Market Falls, 
So What Should You Do Now?"

"At Last..."

“At last, the answer why. The lesson that had been so hard to find, so difficult to learn, came quick and clear and simple. The reason for problems is to overcome them. Why, that’s the very nature of man, I thought, to press past limits, to prove his freedom. It isn’t the challenge that faces us, that determines who we are and what we are becoming, but the way we meet the challenge, whether we toss a match at the wreck or work our way through it, step by step, to freedom.”
- Richard Bach, “Nothing by Chance”

"A Message To Anyone Who Feels Like 'Winston' In Orwell's '1984'"

"A Message To Anyone Who Feels Like
'Winston' In Orwell's '1984'"
by Simon Black

“The ideal set up by the Party was something huge, terrible, and glittering... all thinking the same thoughts and shouting the same slogans, perpetually working, fighting, triumphing, persecuting - three hundred million people all with the same face.” That was a quote from George Orwell’s seminal work "1984" - a masterpiece that describes life in a totalitarian state that demands blind obedience.

The ‘Party’ controlled everything - the economy, daily life, and even the truth. In Orwell’s "1984", “the heresy of heresies was common sense.” “Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”

If you were ever caught committing a thoughtcrime - dissenting from the Party for even an instant - then “your name was removed from the registers, every record of everything you had ever done was wiped out, your one-time existence was denied and then forgotten.”

Now, our world obviously hasn’t become quite as extreme as Orwell’s dystopian vision. But Big Tech, Big Media, and Big Government certainly seem to be giving it their best effort. 70,000 thought criminals have already been purged from Twitter. Facebook and Reddit are feverishly removing user content. Apple, Google, and Amazon have banned entire apps and platforms.

Undoubtedly there is plenty of wacky content all over the Internet - misinformation, ignorance, rage, hate, violence, and just plain stupidity. But these moves by the Big Tech companies aren’t about violence. If they were, they would have deleted tens of thousands of accounts over the last few years– like the mostly peaceful BLM activist who Tweeted “white people may have to die”. Or the countless others who have advocated for violent uprisings against the police Then, of course, there’s the #assassinatetrump and #killtrump hashtags that has Twitter has allowed since at least 2016. Or the #killallmen hashtag that’s allowed on Twitter and Instagram.

This is not about violence. It’s about ideology. If you hold different beliefs than the ‘Party’, then you risk being canceled or ‘de-platformed’ by Big Tech. Icons like Ron Paul - who spent years criticizing the current administration’s monetary and national defense policies, and had nothing to do with the Capitol, have been suspended or locked out of their Facebook pages.

The hammer has dropped, and it is now obvious, beyond any doubt, that you better watch what you say - your livelihood, your social life, and your safety may just depend on it. Or else, you will be purged, canceled, deleted from the Internet, denied payment processing by Visa, PayPal, and Stripe, and expelled from domain registrars like GoDaddy.

The message is clear: behave and think exactly as we tell you, or you will lose everything you have worked for, in the blink of an eye. Sure, the ‘Party’ may give lip service to tolerance and unity. As long as you fall in line. Otherwise it’s more rage and ridicule. They act like you’re a crazy person because you have completely legitimate questions and concerns - whether about Covid lockdowns, censorship, media misinformation, etc.

It’s extraordinary that after so much deliberate misinformation and bias, the media still expects people to take them seriously. CNN seems to believe that think anyone who doubts their credibility is a ‘conspiracy theorist.’ All of these trends are probably making a lot of people very nervous. Even scared. Despair has undoubtedly set in, much like in Winston Smith, the main character in Orwell’s "1984."

So, for all the Winstons out there, the most important thing right now is to remain rational. As human beings we tend to make terrible decisions when we’re scared, sad, or angry. Have confidence in knowing that you have MUCH more control over your own life, livelihood, and future than they want to you believe. But you absolutely will have to make some deliberate, potentially difficult decisions.

For example, if you’re fed up with Big Tech, you can de-Google your life. No one is holding a gun to your head to have a Facebook account or use gmail. There are plenty of other options out there that we’ll discuss in future letters.

More importantly, you might find that your hometown isn’t safe anymore - especially if you live in a big city controlled by politicians intoxicated on their Covid powers. It’s really time to consider your immediate environment - if the local schools are brainwashing your kids, the dictatorial health officials shutting down your business, or nosy neighbors ready to turn you into the Gestapo for having family over for the holidays, then you might think about moving. That might simply mean moving a few miles to a new county. Or a new state/province. Or potentially overseas. 

It might also be time to reconsider some of your business infrastructure - to have backup web servers and payment processors, for example, if you have an online business. It might be time to consider some new financial options as well, lest the banks jump on the band wagon and start ‘canceling’ accounts for heretics.

But that’s the silver lining: we’ve never had more alternatives than now. Everything - technology platforms, financial institutions, and even our personal residence - it’s all replaceable. All of it. We have never had more control over our own privacy, data, livelihood, and environment… as long as you have the willingness to take action."
Freely download "1984", by George Orwell, here:

Musical Interlude: Moby, "Love Of Strings"

Full screen recommended.
Moby, "Love Of Strings"

Life, magnificent Life...

The Daily "Near You?"

San José, San Jose, Costa Rica. Thanks for stopping by!

“Life, Explained To You”

“Life, Explained To You”
Author Unknown

“On the first day God created the dog. God said, “Sit all day by the door of your house and bark at anyone who comes in or walks past. I will give you a life span of twenty years.” The dog said, “That’s too long to be barking. Give me ten years and I’ll give you back the other ten.” So God agreed. 

On the second day God created the monkey. God said, “Entertain people, do monkey tricks and make them laugh. I’ll give you a twenty-year life span.” The monkey said, “Monkey tricks for twenty years? I don’t think so. Dog gave you back ten, so that’s what I’ll do too, okay?” And God agreed. 

On the third day God created the cow. “You must go to the field with the farmer all day long and suffer under the sun, have calves, and give milk to support the farmer. I will give you a life span of sixty years.” The cow said, “That’s kind of a tough life you want me to live for sixty years. Let me have twenty and I’ll give back the other forty.” And God agreed again. 

On the fourth day God created man. God said, “Eat, sleep, play, marry and enjoy your life. I’ll give you twenty years.” Man said, “What? Only twenty years? Tell you what, I’ll take my twenty, and the forty the cow gave back, and the ten the monkey gave back, and the ten the dog gave back, that makes eighty, okay?” “Okay,” said God, “You’ve got a deal.” 

So that is why the first twenty years we eat, sleep, play, and enjoy ourselves; the next forty years we slave in the sun to support our family; the next ten years we do monkey tricks to entertain the grandchildren; and the last ten years we sit on the front porch and bark at everyone.”

“Life has now been explained to you.”

"I Wish..."

"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo.
"So do I," said Gandalf "and so do all who live to see such times.
But that is not for them to decide.
All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."
- J.R.R. Tolkien, "Lord of the Rings"

The Poet: Edward Hirsch, "I Was Never Able To Pray"

"I Was Never Able To Pray"

"Wheel me down to the shore
where the lighthouse was abandoned
and the moon tolls in the rafters.
Let me hear the wind paging through the trees,
and see the stars flaring out, one by one,
like the forgotten faces of the dead.
I was never able to pray,
but let me inscribe my name
in the book of waves,
and then stare into the dome
of a sky that never ends,
and see my voice sail into the night."

- Edward Hirsch

"How It Really Is"

 

"Roadside Slaughter and Railway Robbery"

"Roadside Slaughter and Railway Robbery"
by Bill Bonner

                                         "And as for fortune, and as for fame
I never invited them in
Though it seemed to the world they were all I desired
They are illusions
They're not the solutions they promised to be."
~ "Don’t Cry for Me Argentina" by Andrew Lloyd Webber

Paris, France -  "Twenty years ago we predicted America’s long trajectory ahead: “Tokyo… then Buenos Aires.” We might have been holding the map upside down. But today, we return to our travel planning. Where are we headed? How should we pack?

In 1999, we figured that the dot.com bubble was bound to pop and that the US economy would likely turn into a Japan-like slump. Stocks would go down, we thought. The economy would sink. It would take many years to ‘fix’ the problem… we imagined. And it would only be done in the worst possible way – by inflating, a la Argentina.

In the event, the dot.com bubble did pop and the economy did sink. In the first two decades of the 21st century, per-capita GDP growth rates were only half of those of the previous century. And stocks did try to follow in Japan’s footsteps. Not once, but three times – the dot.com crash itself in 2000… then again, in the mortgage finance crisis of 2008-2009… and finally, in the Covid Crisis of 2020.

Each time the feds came to Wall Street’s rescue with more money – so much so that two decades into the 21st century the Fed has added $8 trillion to its balance sheet (a rough measure of money supply footings) and the US ‘national’ debt has increased by $23 trillion.

Wall Street’s gamblers and high rollers rejoice. The Dow rose from 11,000 in 1999 to 36,000 in 2021. And the rich – the top 10% who own more than 80% of America’s stocks and bonds – got much richer. They gratefully returned the favor, generously providing funds for political campaigns and lobbying outfits.

But Main Street slumped… manufacturing, a main source of high-wage jobs, continued to move overseas… real investment per capita (essential for real economic growth) fell… and flyover America grew surly and restless.

Thieving Hordes: In 2008, a new president promised “Change.” But no change of direction was forthcoming. And then, in 2016, another new president promised to Make America Great Again. But he turned out to be more in the bogus Latin American strongman tradition than a genuine reformer. And now, the Japan visit, as imperfect as it was, is over. Buenos Aires, here we come!

A news item a few months ago caught our eye. A truck was carrying beef cattle through a poor neighborhood in Buenos Aires, on its way to the abattoir. The local people stopped the truck, unloaded a cow… and slaughtered it right on the street. Last week, from California, came news that hordes of thieves had broken into boxcars and stolen whatever they could find. From Bloomberg: "CBS footage shows lines of packages from carriers including UPS and Amazon.com Inc., many of which arrived from Asia through the nation’s largest ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, stretching along the railways. The looters raided packages that contained all sorts of consumer goods, while abandoning those seen as not valuable enough, including Covid-19 tests and EpiPens, devices used in emergencies to treat severe allergic reactions."

People are growing desperate, lawless, and dependent. They no longer count on decent jobs where they can earn money. Instead, they look for opportunities for larceny, grift, and welfare. ‘Transfer payments’… money that the government takes from the people who earn it in order to hand it over to the people who didn’t… were only 5% of GDP in 1970. Today, they’re more than 20%. And while the lower classes commit petty crimes, the upper classes go for grand larceny.

Also in the news last week, Fed governor Richard Clarida resigned. He is the third resignation in recent months, as it comes to light that Fed honchos have been front-running their own decisions for years.

The Pampas Playbook: But even their millions are small change compared to the trillions skimmed by the elite over the last 20 years. Were it not for the conniving and fiddling by the Fed, their stock market fortunes – now about $48 trillion – would probably be worth less than half as much as they are today.

Along with the corruption – paying for things you don’t need with money you don’t have – has come inflation. At the official rate, US inflation is now at 7%... the largest 12-month increase since 1982. But wait, in the 1990s, the feds changed the way they calculate inflation. If it were toted up the way they did in 1982, today’s rate would be above 15%. Even at its peak in the 1970s, US inflation never got that high. To get today’s inflation you have to go back 96 years – to 1917 – when the rate rose over 17%.

And lies! In Argentina, inflation has always been blamed on big business, capitalism, the US…you name it. And now in the US, the Biden team, along with demagogues such as Elizabeth Warren, are following the Pampas Playbook, trying to shift the blame away from their own malign policies. As Lincoln put it, you can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time – and, as the Argentine government has proven over the last 70 years, that’s plenty!

To be continued, tomorrow..."

"A Deep Attentiveness..."

"When the pain of leaving behind what we know outweighs the pain of embracing it, or when the power we face is overwhelming and neither flight nor fight will save us, there may be salvation in sitting still. And if salvation is impossible, then at least before perishing we may gain a clearer vision of where we are. By sitting still I do not mean the paralysis of dread, like that of a rabbit frozen beneath the dive of a hawk. I mean something like reverence, a respectful waiting, a deep attentiveness to forces much greater than our own.”
- Scott Russell Sanders

"Experts Are Warning That Empty Shelves And Food Shortages Are Going To Continue For Many Weeks To Come"

"Experts Are Warning That Empty Shelves And Food
Shortages Are Going To Continue For Many Weeks To Come"
by Michael Snyder

"The term “return to normal” is being thrown around a lot these days, but will things ever truly return to the way that they were before the pandemic came along? I don’t think so. From an economic standpoint, an extraordinary amount of lasting damage has been done over the past two years. A seemingly endless list of major problems has thrown thousands upon thousands of critical supply chains into a complete and utter state of chaos, and this has resulted in some very painful shortages. For quite a while, the mainstream media kept insisting that the shortages would soon be gone, but now they are being forced to admit the truth. If you can believe it, NPR has even published a major story about the growing shortages in this country…

No, you’re not imagining it. Some grocery store shelves are bare again, conjuring bad memories of spring 2020 for many. Social media is rife with images of empty supermarket aisles and signs explaining the lack of available food and other items. Stores such as Aldi have apologized to customers for the shortages. Nobody in the mainstream media ever imagined that the shortages would last this long.

For certain items such as computer chips, the duration of the shortages is now approaching two full years. Of course fear of Omicron has made things even worse, and one expert interviewed by NPR suggested that supermarkets in the U.S. are now facing a “perfect storm”… “We’re really seeing the perfect storm,” Phil Lempert, editor of the website SupermarketGuru.com, told NPR."

Isn’t it strange how that term just seems to keep popping up all over the place? One of the major issues that supermarkets on the east coast are currently facing is greatly increased shipping costs.

Many Americans don’t realize this, but much of the fresh produce that we enjoy is actually grown in a handful of western states. In fact, “99 percent of walnuts, 97 percent of kiwis, 97 percent of plums, 95 percent of celery, 95 percent of garlic, 89 percent of cauliflower, 71 percent of spinach, and 69 percent of carrots” grown in the United States come from the state of California. To get all of that produce to stores in the east has always been a major production, but today it has also become exceedingly expensive…

Growers of perishable produce across the West Coast are paying nearly triple pre-pandemic trucking rates to ship things like lettuce and berries before they spoil. Shay Myers, CEO of Owyhee Produce, which grows onions, watermelons and asparagus along the border of Idaho and Oregon, said he has been holding off shipping onions to retail distributors until freight costs go down.

Myers said transportation disruptions in the last three weeks, caused by a lack of truck drivers and recent highway-blocking storms, have led to a doubling of freight costs for fruit and vegetable producers, on top of already-elevated pandemic prices. “We typically will ship, East Coast to West Coast – we used to do it for about $7,000,” he said. “Today it’s somewhere between $18,000 and $22,000.”

Unfortunately, the issues that are plaguing the industry are not going to be cleared up any time soon. According to the CEO of Conagra Brands, supply chain issues will continue to be a huge headache for his company for at least the next month… "Birds Eye frozen vegetables maker Conagra Brands’ CEO Sean Connolly told investors last week that supplies from its U.S. plants could be constrained for at least the next month due to Omicron-related absences."

And the CEO of Albertson’s is anticipating continued supply chain woes “over the next four to six weeks”… "Vivek Sankaran, CEO of the grocery store chain Albertson’s, said in an earnings call that the company had been hoping to recover from recent supply issues but omicron “put a dent in that.” “There are more supply challenges, and we would expect more supply challenges over the next four to six weeks,” Sankaran said on Tuesday."

Of course these corporate leaders are anticipating that the Omicron wave will eventually fade and operations will start getting back to normal as warmer weather comes along. But in order to do that, they are going to have to find a lot more workers from somewhere. According to another industry expert, the consumer-packaged goods industry in the United States “is missing around 120,000 workers” right now… "The situation is not expected to abate for at least a few more weeks, Katie Denis, vice president of communications and research at the Consumer Brands Association said, blaming the shortages on a scarcity of labor.

The consumer-packaged goods industry is missing around 120,000 workers out of which only 1,500 jobs were added last month, she said, while the National Grocer’s Association said that many of its grocery store members were operating with less than 50% of their workforce capacity."

So where are they going to find enough people to restore service to normal levels? They can’t exactly resurrect those that have died over the past year. Now that millions of workers have seemingly “disappeared” from the system, companies all over America are fiercely competing with one another for anyone that still has a pulse and is available.

So if the food industry wants to hire thousands upon thousands of new workers, they are going to have to radically raise wages. And if they do that, we will be paying even more to fill up our carts at the grocery store. Today, a full shopping cart full of food can run more than 300 dollars in many areas. Will that figure soon reach 400 or 500 dollars?

And what happens if our supply chain problems persist for many months to come like analysts at Deutsche Bank are now projecting… ‘For 2022, we expect supply pressures to likely linger for longer, perhaps until the second half of next year before gradually unwinding,’ Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a note last Tuesday.

But just like everyone else, the analysts at Deutsche Bank are also assuming that conditions will “return to normal” eventually. It would be really nice if that actually happened, but as Wolf Richter has pointed out, grocery stores have desperately been trying to “return to normal” for 20 months… "Grocery stores have been trying to stock up for 20 months now, to fill the holes and catch up with this historic surge in demand, but every time they make a little headway, new constraints and problems emerge, and they still don’t have enough inventory on hand to get over the hump, and they temporarily and sporadically run out of some items."

The elephant in the room that nobody really wants to talk about is the fact that our supply chains will never fully return to the way they were in 2019. Too much has changed. Yes, there will be a lot of ups and downs, but I actually believe that many of the problems that we are facing today will actually grow over time.

It took decades of incredibly bad decisions to get us to this point, and the gross incompetence being displayed by our leaders in Washington does not give me confidence that things will turn around any time soon. The years ahead are not going to be pretty, and I would advise you to prepare accordingly."

"Beware: It’s Getting Worse!"

Full screen recommended.
Get Ready Stay Ready, AM 1/18/22:
"Beware: It’s Getting Worse!"
"Shortages in food and labor are getting worse."

"Your City Could Look Just Like Los Angeles Soon - Economic Nightmare"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly AM 1/18/22:
"Your City Could Look Just Like Los Angeles Soon - 
Economic Nightmare"
"Los Angeles is coming to a city near you. This place gets worse every time I visit. There is so much retail closures and homelessness. The Los Angeles economy is getting destroyed."

Gregory Mannarino, "Risk In The Market Rising; Stocks Set To Fall At The Open. Crude Ripping Higher"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 1/18/22:
"Risk In The Market Rising; 
Stocks Set To Fall At The Open. Crude Ripping Higher"

Monday, January 17, 2022

"Walmart Warning Sign More Shortages; Food Prices Surging; Hard Times Are Here"

Full screen recommended.
Jeremiah Babe, PM 1/17/22:
"Walmart Warning Sign More Shortages; 
Food Prices Surging; Hard Times Are Here"

"Stores Not Being Restocked! No Deliveries"

Full screen recommended.
Tommy Bites Homestead, PM 1/17/22:
"Stores Not Being Restocked! No Deliveries"

"Michael Burry: Greatest Stock Market Crash Of Our Time Is Coming!"

Full screen recommended.
"Michael Burry: Greatest Stock Market 
Crash Of Our Time Is Coming!"
by Epic Economist

"Experts and insiders are getting really spooked about the imminent threats on Wall Street and have been bracing for a devastating stock market crash as financial and economic conditions dramatically worsen. Several veteran investors are warning that the rampant speculation fueled by the US government and the Federal Reserve can not sustain asset prices forever, and a significant pullback is right ahead.

Amongst them, Scion Asset Management CEO and Big Short investor, Michael Burry, seems to be right about an impending financial disaster once again. The hedge fund manager, who famously bet against the country’s housing market in 2008, highlighted in a recent statement that the bond and stock markets are in a particularly vulnerable position given that they need the constant support of the corrupt US central bank. “Bond & stock markets depend on a Fed stripped of all credibility,” he said.

Burry, had warned at the end of 2020 that the central bank’s policies would spark inflation as we’ve never seen before. "Prepare for inflation," he tweeted back then. He even noted that we were heading to an environment of hyperinflation similar to what occurred in Germany in the 1920s, outlining that during that time everyone was playing the market and trading volumes were skyrocketing. "Sound familiar?" he asked. Well, if it didn’t in 2020, it certainly does now. That’s to say, with inflation rising almost 7%, the outlook is particularly concerning for volatile stocks such as tech.

That’s why the investor revealed that he had bet against Elon Musk's Tesla and Cathie Wood's Ark Invest, two investor favorites leading the tech bubble. It turns out that both of them have faced sizable crashes at the end of December and earlier this month as the tech bubble finally burst. One more hit for Burry’s count. The Scion boss revealed it held bearish put options on about 1.1 million Tesla shares. It also disclosed puts on Cathie Wood's Ark Innovation ETF, a key Tesla supporter. The experts rang the alarm again in a series of tweets: “Can $TSLA fall 80, 90%? After 2000, many high flyers did," he wrote.

Tesla has already lost billions after CEO Elon Musk started dumping shares of his own company to allegedly ‘pay for taxes,’ which according to Burry, is just a strategy to cash in money before a steeper decline in share prices. He said Musk was selling shares because he knew the electric-vehicle stock was extremely overvalued. But at the end of the day, "he doesn't need cash. He just wants to sell $TSLA," Burry added.

The market veteran has reiterated his previous warning that the market is in a “speculative bubble,” and a historic stock market crash is near. He pointed to today’s soaring prices and ballooning margin debt, and also compared the hype around Bitcoin, electric cars, software-as-a-service companies, and meme stocks to the dot-com and housing bubbles. He alerted that most assets had been "driven by speculative fervor to insane heights from which the fall will be dramatic and painful."

In Burry’s view, today’s overvaluation is much more worrying than what investors experienced in the 1990s, and that speculation is much higher now than in the 1920s. The investor argues that another troubling factor for financial markets is the rising geopolitical tension around the world. He fears that “we are fast moving towards an economic calamity, and government regulators such as the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Reserve are taking no action to prevent it”.

All things considered, it’s no wonder why he slashed his US portfolio from more than 20 holdings to only six, cutting its total value from almost $140 million to only $42 million. The founder of r/Burryology, a subreddit for Burry's close followers, told in a recent interview that the sales were a huge red flag that signaled Burry was preparing for “the mother of all crashes.” Of course, he is far from alone. Many other billionaire investors such are also getting ready for the meltdown that’s coming and have been sharing their forecasts with clients and online followers in recent weeks.

What makes the situation so alarming is that high valuations are putting the market in the most vulnerable position it’s ever been at a time when strong growth is in question, and liquidity is drying up. In short, this all means that this gigantic stock market bubble is on the verge of a gigantic crash. And those who saw the signs before are seeing them again right now."

Musical Interlude: 2002, “Land of Forever”

 

2002, “Land of Forever”

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Massive stars, abrasive winds, mountains of dust, and energetic light sculpt one of the largest and most picturesque regions of star formation in the Local Group of Galaxies. Known as N11, the region is visible on the upper right of many images of its home galaxy, the Milky Way neighbor known as the Large Magellanic Clouds (LMC).
The above image was taken for scientific purposes by the Hubble Space Telescope and reprocessed for artistry by an amateur to win the Hubble's Hidden Treasures competition. Although the section imaged above is known as NGC 1763, the entire N11 emission nebula is second in LMC size only to 30 Doradus. Studying the stars in N11 has shown that it actually houses three successive generations of star formation. Compact globules of dark dust housing emerging young stars are also visible around the image.”

"Three Things..."

“To me, there are three things we all should do every day. We should do this every day of our lives. Number one is laugh. You should laugh every day. Number two is think. You should spend some time in thought. And number three is, you should have your emotions moved to tears, could be happiness or joy. But think about it. If you laugh, you think, and you cry, that’s a full day. That’s a heck of a day. You do that seven days a week, you’re going to have something special. I just got one last thing... I urge all of you, all of you, to enjoy your life, the precious moments you have.”
- Jim Valvano

"Politics Is Dead, Here's What Killed It"

"Politics Is Dead, Here's What Killed It"
by Charles Hugh Smith

"Representational democracy - a.k.a. politics as a solution to social and economic problems - has passed away. It did not die a natural death. Politics developed a cancer very early in life (circa the early 1800s), caused by wealth outweighing public opinion. This cancer spread slowly but metastasized in the past few decades, spreading to every nook and cranny of our society and economy as "democracy" devolved into an invitation-only auction of elections and political favors.

Politics might have had a fighting chance but three forces betrayed the nation and its citizenry.

1. The Federal Reserve transferred trillions of dollars of unearned wealth into the feeding troughs of the super-wealthy and corporations, vastly increasing the wealth the top 0.01% had to buy elections and favors. The Federal Reserve cloaked its treachery with jargon - quantitative easing, stimulus, etc. - and then stabbed the nation's representational democracy in the back.

2. The Supreme Court betrayed the nation's representative democracy by labeling corporations buying elections and political favors a form of "free speech." (Please don't hurt yourself laughing too hard.) The Supreme Court's equating wealth buying elections and favors with individual citizens' sacrosanct right of free speech was a knife in the back of the nation and its citizenry.

3. The two political parties betrayed their traditional voter bases to kneel at the altar of corporate / elite wealth, wealth which bought elections and political favors. The Democrats, traditional champions of the workforce in the 20th century, abandoned workers in favor of serving their corporate masters, masking their betrayal with fine-sounding phrases.

The Republican Party, traditionally promoters of Big Business (Wall Street, banks, mega-corporations), had maintained a narrow but crucial interest in trust-busting (limiting monopolies) to defend free enterprise and small business from the predations of monopolies and cartels. Those days are long past; just as the Democratic Party tossed the working class overboard to the sharks, the Republican Party walked small business off the gangplank right into the voracious jaws of cartels and globalized, financialized corporate sharks.

To cloak their betrayal and treachery, the parties have pursued a divide-and-conquer distraction game, pushing half the nation into one-size-fits-all "enemies lists" with labels that have lost all meaning other than as means to promote divisiveness and rancor: Liberal and Conservative, socialist and capitalist, etc.

It's not the citizenry who are "deplorable," it's the parties' corporate-derriere-kissing toadies, lackeys, apparatchiks, purveyors of propaganda, enforcers, apologists, sycophants, grifters and "leaders" who manage to greatly increase their private wealth while "serving the public" (heh).

These three betrayals of public trust and representational democracy caused the demise of politics as a solution to social and economic problems. "Politics" has been stripped to its essence: an invitation-only auction of elections and political favors. The price to watch from the rear of the auction is $1 million; to actually place a bid, the minimum is $10 million, but the winning bids are generally much higher. (Lobbying, campaign contributions, bogus think-tanks, and philanthro-capitalist foundations are all part of the auction funding.)

Here's "politics" in America now: come with mega-millions or don't even bother to show up. Choose which "enemies list" you want to be on; there's not much choice. And don't forget to put a flower on the grave of representational democracy."

The Daily "Near You?"

Moosup, Connecticut, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Boiling the Frog"

"Boiling the Frog"
by Jeff Thomas

"There was, of course, no way of knowing whether you were being watched at any given moment. How often, or on what system, The Thought Police plugged in on any individual wire was guesswork. It was even conceivable that they watched everybody all the time. But at any rate, they could plug in your wire whenever they wanted to. You had to live – did live, from habit that became instinct – in the assumption that every sound you made was overheard, and, except in darkness, every move was scrutinized."

The above quote is from "1984," by George Orwell. The now-famous date that Orwell chose was actually of no real significance. He simply reversed the last two digits of the year in which he wrote the book, 1948. Orwell concerned himself less with timeline than with concept. And that concept has been chillingly accurate in its foresight.

The quote above should ring alarm bells in today’s world, particularly for those who live in the US, as the US government leads the world in the development of surveillance of its people. Today, the US government is in the process of completing a massive electronic surveillance network that encompasses all telephone calls, all computer-driven communication, and all banking transactions. Quite a tribute to Orwell’s Big Brother.

We have in the past predicted that the surveillance net will eventually expand to include all monetary transactions by US residents (possibly through the replacement of the paper dollar by an electronic money system), allowing the US government to ultimately have knowledge of every aspect of the economic activities of US residents and, therefore, control over those activities.

The excuse given for such surveillance has been "to protect America from terrorism." This notion is a wonderful invention, as terrorism can be imagined to be small or large and can occur at anytime, anywhere in the country. Further, if there are no actual occurrences, the government can create false flag incidents as easily and as often as they are needed.

The bogeyman of "terrorism" is particularly useful, as terrorism is faceless. No invasion is necessary. A terrorist can be anyone—even your next door neighbor and, indeed, the government computers are programmed to pay especially close heed to specific words and phrases, such as "freedom" or "patriotism." Should your next door neighbor use such words in his emails, he is more likely to be flagged.

The degree of surveillance that Orwell described in 1984 has not yet been reached, but it is not far off. Most importantly, though, the most essential aspect of its implementation has already been overcome - the aspect of popular acceptance. The American people, in the main, have successfully been sold the concept that it is necessary in order to keep Americans "safe from terrorism."

With this green light, the US government is moving rapidly toward the completion of the implementation of full surveillance. If any American doubts that this is coming, he need only ask himself whether the present wiretaps, warrantless house raids, and TSA shakedowns would have been possible only a generation ago.

Americans are already being conditioned to understand that, if they object to these intrusions, that only makes them more suspect. Citizens are already being encouraged to report any "suspicious" activity they observe in their fellow citizens, or indeed, even in their own families. It is almost as if 1984 had been used as a guide in creating the new USA.

Of course, it is admittedly easy for non-Americans such as myself to criticize. We lose nothing by suggesting that those who are in a country that is in a state of dramatic decline, plan their exits whist it is still possible. After all, we are not the ones who would be leaving our home, job, and possibly family members behind. We are, in fact, already comfortably settled in our own countries - countries that may actually be thriving and promising us a positive future.

And there is another factor that makes it easy for us. Those Americans that we do meet are generally those who have already left - who have plucked up their courage and made an exit to friendlier, more promising shores. Not surprisingly, they tend to be very positive people.

On the other hand, those who remain in the US are surrounded by others who, at least at present, have chosen to remain. Therefore, to actually entertain the idea of escaping the oppression of an over-reaching government (not to mention a collapsing economic system and perpetual warfare) is a lonely pursuit indeed. For anyone to actually raise himself up to see the forest for the trees is, in itself, a major feat. To actually conceive of and then plan an actual exit to greener pastures is an even greater one.

It is easy for all of us, no matter where we are, to observe that the end product (that of "1984") is abhorrent and unfit for humanity. However, the end product does not occur all in one fell swoop. Like the boiling of a frog, it is made possible, first, by the comforting warmth of the water, which increases slowly in temperature, lulling the frog into complacency until he is too sleepy to jump out of the pot.

The US began as, very possibly, the most ideal republic ever conceived. Yet, at intervals, over the last 244 years, the original ideals have been stripped away and, in recent years, as it slides toward a very literal 1984, the deterioration has sped up dramatically. Saddest of all, it is occurring with the approval of the now-complacent frogs.

This is not to say that the US is alone in its deterioration towards a totalitarian state. The countries of the EU and many others of the former "Free World" are also in decline. However, the US does lead the way in its Orwellian surveillance. At this point, the US government does not even deny its surveillance. In Orwellian tradition, they merely state, "If you have nothing to hide, you need not fear your government." And just as in 1984, that fear is exactly the object. People who live in fear are easily controlled.They stay put and take whatever is dished up.

As Thomas Jefferson observed, "When the government fears the people, that is liberty; when the people fear the government, that is tyranny."

"Our Dilemma..."

"Our dilemma is that we hate change and love it at the same time;
what we really want is for things to remain the same but get better. "
- Sydney J. Harris

“There Is No Reality Anymore…”

“There Is No Reality Anymore…”
by Thad Beversdorf

“I‘d love to change the world, but I don‘t know what to do,
so I’ll leave it up to you…” 

“What a great lyric that is from the late 60′s, early 70′s English band “10 Years After.” I believe this describes that uneasy feeling of discontent that sits deep in the stomach, beneath the day to day exteriors, of so many people today. The world is like a black hole in that it seems to be getting smaller and smaller as the years go by but also heavier and heavier with each passing day.

When I was a teenager and my friends and I were taking reality obscuring substances, one of my buddies (this means you Nichol) would stop us at certain points throughout the night for a reality check. This was just a few moments where we ‘d all gather our senses to make sure the world was still right and then we’d venture back into obscurity. I feel that reality is an old world term. There is no reality anymore. With advances in technology came unending possibilities of if you can dream it they can make it so. The ubiquitous flow of information ensures that the truth is always available but never known with certainty. It means there is no such thing as a reality check. It’s like that dream inside a dream inside a dream. Which reality is real anymore? How deep does the rabbit hole go?

We are raised with pretty standard ideals of what the world is meant to be but these ideals seem to take place only in the movies. It must be incredibly difficult for our young people to reconcile the two worlds, I know it is for me. That which they learn as a child and that which they find has replaced it as a young adult. Our leaders are despicable, arrogant and egotistical fools who pretend we elect them because we don’t see them for what they are. But we elect them because we feel we have no choice. We know what we want the world to be. We know what it should look and feel like. And we know it is not the world in which we live today. I know I’d love to change the world but I don’t know how and so I’ll leave it up to you. And so we continue to move forward down this path, each step uneasy as though something ungood is lurking just around the next corner.

We are able to put that feeling out of our minds for the most part but our subconscious is always aware that things are off. We have all kinds of self help books and new age theories that attempt to make sense of it all and explain why we just aren t happy the way we envision happy should be. Perhaps the only reality is the reality that the world isn’t what we had hoped it would be and we don’t know how to make that right. I’d love to say that if we just stand up and do the right thing, act from our hearts and have good intentions that it could change the world. But quite honestly there are ill-intentioned people that are constructing this new world in which we sub-exist.It is them and us, but they’d never say it that way. Certainly though their intention is not for us to co-exist along side them.

But so we carry on and we, move forward, to the best of our abilities. We accept the good with the bad and acknowledge that everything is a trade off. We believe that if we go to college we stand a better chance in life and so we borrow our first 10 years of post college wages to get an edge over the next guy who is doing the same. When we get out of school we know that it is time to buckle down and get serious. We put our lives on hold in order to focus on the future with the idea that one day we will be sitting on the porch with the person we love, the one we put on hold for all those years, and we will then enjoy our life’s work then.

But then we get further in debt because we need a sleeker car and we need a bigger house but it’s ok because we can just work a little more. And then the kids come and as far as we got to know them they are great, I think. But it’s ok because they just finished college and now they’ve moved back in as the job market is tough out there and so we’re paying off their student loans. Eventually they get away and begin their life’s journey and they take their debt with them. And then we realize, god I’m almost 60. But it feels great because that means soon I’ll be there on the porch getting to know the one I love again and life will be grand at that point.

But then we turn 65 and we realize all those policies that were implemented by all those well-intentioned decision makers have actually left us with very little. And we say it’s ok because we’d be bored anyway just sitting on the porch. And so we take a job waving at people in Walmart but feel like OMG how did I get here. But the shift ends and we go home anxious to spend time with the one we love because, although it’s a terrible thought, we are aware we’re both getting long in the tooth. And so we arrive home only to realize the one we love is now sick and that it’s too late for our days sitting on the porch getting to know each other again. We do everything we can but we cannot afford to help that person who stood quietly behind us all those years as healthcare costs are unrealistically out of touch with reality. And then it hits us that despite taking all the right steps to ensure we have a great life we failed to ever really be happy, to really love and to really accept love. And then it really hits us, this world provides but one shot.

Well, then that feeling of uneasy discontent that shadowed us when we were young is now an intense pain in our heart. And we look out at the world and we ask ourselves how could this have happened? I did everything they told me I was supposed to do, I did everything right! And it becomes clear that life was a chance to change the world, but we didn’t know what to do, and so we left it up to…”

"Does the American Empire End With A Bang or a Whimper?"

"Does the American Empire End With A Bang or a Whimper?"
by Bob Moriarty

"The Neocons with their divided loyalty have never regarded US interests as being of much value to them. In a 1996 position paper written for the then Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu titled “A Clean Break” the group of Jewish Neocons advocated this:

“The introduction specifically proposes three new policies:

1. Rather than pursuing a "comprehensive peace" with the entire Arab world, Israel should work jointly with Jordan and Turkey to "contain, destabilize, and roll-back" those entities that are threats to all three.

2. Changing the nature of relations with the Palestinians, specifically reserving the right of "hot pursuit" anywhere within Palestinian territory as well as attempting to promote alternatives to Arafat's leadership.

3. Changing relations with the United States stressing self-reliance and strategic cooperation."

Of course the third new policy went by the wayside as Israel found it much more effective to let the Americans do their fighting for them and for the US taxpayers to finance all the wars against Israel’s perceived enemies.

Netanyahu rejected the suggestions in the position paper presented to him in 1996 as being too outlandish. So the same group of dual national Jewish and American citizens took their circus to Washington where they were welcomed with open arms by the leaderless Bush administration. The same neocons behind the Netanyahu position paper came up with a new document misnamed "The Project for a New Israeli Century."

Being firmly entrenched in the Bush administration when 911 took place they were able to start a series of wars paid for and fought by the United States but all designed to advance the interests of Israel. Indeed, after the attacks, General Wesley Clark went to the Pentagon only ten days past 911 where he was told of the US intention of attacking seven countries after the invasion and attack on Afghanistan.

None of the countries were actually enemies of the US. They only were perceived enemies of Israel’s determination to dominate the Middle East. Saudi Arabia had far more to do with the hijackers on 911 supplying fifteen of the nineteen attackers but was never a target of the US.

By now most Americans have forgotten or never realized that the only people celebrating the events of 911 and arrested that day were Mossad agents caught cheering and filming as the attack unfolded. The agents worked for Urban Moving Systems. They would later admit on Israeli television that they were sent to record the events. Pictures taken by them on 9/10 from exactly the same location prove that they knew what was going to happen the next day. In an example of remarkable gall, the Mossad agents even drove moving trucks with a picture of an aircraft about to fly into the twin towers.
Taken from the "Dancing Israelis Police and FBI Reports": "A former Urban Moving Systems employee later contacted the Newark Division with information indicating that he had quit his employment with Urban Moving Systems due to high amount of anti-American sentiment present among Urban’s employees. The former employee stated that an Israeli employee of Urban had even once remarked, “Give us twenty (20) years and we’ll take over your media and destroy your country.” It’s been twenty years now. Readers can determine for themselves just who controls the media in the United States, they don’t need me for that.

Russia is demanding legal binding agreements with the US and their European puppets running Nato that missiles will not be installed in Ukraine. That’s exactly the same position that JFK took during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. That seems perfectly reasonable to me.

But the neocons want war with Russia and China and are almost certainly about to get it. The US through Victoria Nuland, wife of Robert Kagan of PNAC fame, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, is funding the Ukraine military with offensive weapons. She was caught on tape saying, “F**k the EU” during the coup d’état run by the US to overthrow the legally elected government of Ukraine in 2014. She also made no bones about the venture having cost American taxpayers a total of $5 billion and bragged about it in a YouTube video. She should have remembered that coups are a lot cheaper and less deadly than wars. Wars are easy to start and hard to end.

The US and their sock puppets within NATO are deliberately pushing Ukraine to attack Donbas. There are American aircraft in Ukraine, American soldiers and the US is financing the push. While the MSM in the West is pretending Putin and Russia are the bad guys, actually the US and Nato have always been the culprits behind the broken treaties and promises to the USSR that Nato would not move one inch closer to Russia.

If China or Russia installed missile bases in Cuba or Mexico there would be an immediate outcry in the US and a demand that those weapons be removed. Putin and Russia are demanding, not asking, not hoping, they are demanding a legal and enforceable agreement that Nato not expand.

Listening to the idiots from Nato and State Department mouthpieces and those representing the interests of the US, it is clear that the Russian demands are written in rock. They want no more lies from the west. On the side of Nato it is clear that those speaking for the US are utterly tone deaf. It is as if the Russians are transmitting on one frequency and the US/Nato listening to hip hop music on another frequency.

Russia is prepared for war. The US and Europe are not. Russia will attack suddenly and totally. The US and Europe will lose. The world is going to change in a day. It may go nuclear and could end the reign of mankind over the Earth.

The US is run by an administration where to be appointed to high office you have to be queer or transgender or black or a woman or obese but most of all brain dead. The president of the US is senile, the VP of the US giggles at every opportunity. When Biden announces that he fully supports “Let’s go Brandon” you have a real problem. If he isn’t wearing diapers now, he should be. These are not the people who you want to lead you into a war with anything bigger than a hamster.

Americans have fought a number of wars on behalf of Israel over the past twenty years and lost every fight. When you take on a mob of goat herders for two decades, spend $2.3 trillion in the effort and they kick your ass, it would be insane to provoke another war against anyone. So the question is not if the American Empire is on the verge of disappearing, it is only a question of does it go with a bang or a whimper? And do not think for even one minute that Russia and Putin do not fully understand who is the puppet master behind the whole scheme. There will be blood."
Related:

"How It Really Is"

 

"Food Shortage At Walmart! Empty Shelves Everywhere, And Rising Prices!"

Full screen recommended,
Adventures with Danno, AM 1/17/22:
"Food Shortage At Walmart! 
Empty Shelves Everywhere, And Rising Prices!"
"In today's vlog we visit Walmart, and witness a lot of soaring prices. With stores struggling to get in products we are also dealing with another issue of skyrocketing prices."

"This Economy is Never Going Back to Normal - Headed to the Abyss"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly AM 1/17/22:
"This Economy is Never Going Back to Normal - 
Headed to the Abyss"
"The Economy is never going back to normal. Inflation is running rampant and there are huge signs that it will never go away. From crime to the supply chain problems continue throughout everything we do."