Friday, December 10, 2021

"Economic Market Snapshot PM 12/10/21"

"Economic Market Snapshot PM 12/10/21"
"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will
do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone."
- John Maynard Keynes
"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates

CNN Market Data:

CNN Fear And Greed Index:
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
Dec 10th to 13th, Updated Daily
Financial Stress Index
"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Daily Job Cuts
Commentary, highly recommended:
And now, the End Game...
Oh yeah...

The Daily "Near You?"

Saint Petersburg, Saint Petersburg City, Russian Federation.
Thanks for stopping by!

"They Are Saying..."

"When people pile up debts they will find difficult and perhaps even impossible to repay, they are saying several things at once. They are obviously saying that they want more than they can immediately afford. They are saying, less obviously, that their present wants are so important that, to satisfy them, it is worth some future difficulty. But in making that bargain they are implying that when the future difficulty arrives, they'll figure it out. They don't always do that."
- Michael Lewis, "Boomerang"

"Betting on an Unborn Racehorse"

"Betting on an Unborn Racehorse"
by Bill Bonner

"Tell me, friend, when did Saruman The Wise abandon reason for madness?
– Gandalf, "Lord of the Rings"

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – "The Federal Reserve keeps “printing” money – at the rate of about $3 billion per day – and lending it to member banks at a real (inflation-adjusted) rate of MINUS 6%. Not surprisingly, the hustlers are out in force, figuring out new ways to get their hands on it. Bloomberg reported in November:

"[Solar-powered vehicle maker] Sono has racked up about 108.8 million euros ($123 million) in losses since its inception in 2016. When key investors balked at putting in more money roughly two years ago, co-CEOs and co-founders Laurin Hahn and Jona Christians turned to crowdfunding. There was a hitch in that strategy: since March of last year, Sono has been unable to access about 5 million euros from PayPal. The online payment company froze its account, citing risks related to unexpectedly high transaction volume. Sono says it started the process of fighting this as of mid-August."

Without any proceeds from this week’s IPO, Sono estimates it would have been insolvent by next month or shortly thereafter. It expects to lose money for the foreseeable future and continue relying on external financing to stay in business. But the IPO went forward on November 17 at $15 per share and Sono (SEV) briefly got a market value of $1.8 billion…

And it’s not the only company in FantasyLand drawing in big bucks. Last month, Bloomberg reported that companies have taken in a record $600 billion in IPOs so far this year. That’s up from $235 billion in 2019 and $370 billion in 2020. Prior to this, the record stood at about $420 billion… in 2007.

Trump’s Non-runner: And yesterday, we showed how the Trump SPAC deal is likely to be a flop. The general rule is that when someone buys a business he doesn’t know from a person who does know it, the buyer exchanges money for wisdom. If he pays a low enough price, and if he has enough capital and tenacity, he may survive long enough for his newfound wisdom to pay off. Otherwise, he might just as well bet on a racehorse that hasn’t even been born yet.

In the Trump deal, investors – with no knowledge of the business – are paying the Trump team, which has no knowledge of the business, either. The new business comes out like a newborn colt, all wet and wobbly. And when Team Trump put a political hack in charge of his training, the odds of his winning the Kentucky Derby went to near zero. The fates looked on and smiled. “This is politics… not business,” they said to themselves.

Pie in the Sky: What we figure is that, in this market, the pie in the sky is now much more valuable than the meat and potatoes on the table. Yes, when liquidity flows… even the wise abandon reason for madness…and the lightest objects – like empty heads and dead bodies – float to the surface.

Here’s LRT Capital Management: "Through December 1, the S&P 500 index is down only -4.07% from it’s all-time high, while the small-cap index, Russell 2000, is down -12.08%. However, these numbers do not give the full picture of the market decline that has occurred over the past several weeks. A small group of stocks, primarily mega-cap tech shares, have supported the market, while most stocks have been declining for several weeks now. The disproportionately large impact that mega-cap companies can have on market capitalization-weighted indexes has effectively hidden this fact, so while the S&P500 has only declined by approximately 4%, the average stock in the index is down -15.5% through December 1."

Amazon sells for 68 times earnings. Tesla sells for 328 times earnings. And DWAC (Trump’s SPAC) sells for an infinite multiple of earnings… because it has no earnings. At those prices, it is almost impossible for an investor to come out ahead."

"How It Really Is"

 

"We are Getting Mixed Messages on the Economy - You Decide"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly, AM 12/10/21:
"We are Getting Mixed Messages on the Economy - You Decide"
"If you listen to the Experts it’s either all good or all bad. We get continual conflicting stories on the health of our economy. I think that people need to realize exactly where we’re at right now."

"Shopping For Deals At Family Dollar! What's Going On Here?"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, AM 12/10/21:
"Shopping For Deals At Family Dollar! What's Going On Here?"
"In today's vlog we are shopping at Family Dollar only to find lots of empty shelves, and very high prices! From frozen goods, to meat and dairy. Items are missing everywhere! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products."

Greg Hunter, "Weekly News Wrap-Up 12/10/21"

"Weekly News Wrap-Up 12/10/21"
by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

"I cannot believe people are this stupid. The vax injections have clearly failed to stop CV19 or stop the spread of CV19, and yet people are lining up to get more of what does not work. Granted, the continuing MSM propaganda blitz is very powerful and convincing. Still, people already double vaxed can’t wait to get a so-called booster because they are no longer “fully vaccinated,” according to the CDC. Now, the CEO of Pfizer is telling them the third shot will not work because he is already saying, “I Think We Will Need a Fourth Dose.” This is screaming scam and showing the death vax has failed bigtime. What the injections are good at is causing blood clots, heart problems, miscarriages auto immune disease and a host of other ailments along with way more deaths and permanent injuries than all other vaccines combined in the more than 30 year history of VAERS (Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System). Get that booster!!!

It’s not easy getting information on the ongoing sex predator trial of Jeffery Epstein’s co-conspirator Ghislaine Maxwell. Twitter has shut off one account right in time for embarrassing information about how the FBI knew about the sex pedo operations with young girls and did nothing. We do know lots of elites were on Pedophile Island, but the flight logs are being redacted from public view. Was this really a state sanctioned pedo operation for blackmail or just one creepy guy and girlfriend who sexually abused children?

The Fed is freaking out over the inflation numbers that keep growing. Looks like we have almost 7% year over year inflation, and the big question is will the Fed raise rates and stop the easy money policies? If they keep printing, the economy blows up, and it they pull back, the economy blows up. So, what flavor of collapse would you like? That is the choice, and the choice is coming sooner than you think."

Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 12/10/21. (There is much more in the video presentation.)

Thursday, December 9, 2021

The Poet: J.R.R. Tolkien, "I Sit And Think"

"I Sit And Think"

“I sit beside the fire and think
Of all that I have seen,
Of meadow flowers and butterflies
In summers that have been.
Of yellow leaves and gossamer
In autumns that there were,
With morning mist and silver sun
And wind upon my hair.

I sit beside the fire and think
Of how the world will be
When winter comes without a spring
That I shall never see.
For still there are so many things
That I have never seen,
In every wood, in every spring,
There is a different green.

I sit beside the fire and think
Of people long ago,
And people that will see a world
That I shall never know.
But all the while I sit and think
Of times there were before,
I listen for returning feet
And voices at the door.”

- J.R.R. Tolkien

Musical Interlude: "O Holy Night, Looped Album Instrumental Christmas Music"

Full screen recommended.
"O Holy Night, Looped Album Instrumental Christmas Music"
by Nhạc Thư Giãn
A comment: I stumbled upon this video by accident, and want to share it with you. Yes, it's a little early, but this is so incredibly beautiful it made me cry, thinking what could have been, should have been... - CP

Musical Interlude: Ludovico Einaudi, “Primavera”

Ludovico Einaudi, “Primavera”

"A Look to the Heavens"

"A star cluster around 2 million years young surrounded by natal clouds of dust and glowing gas, M16 is also known as The Eagle Nebula. This beautifully detailed image of the region adopts the colorful Hubble palette and includes cosmic sculptures made famous in Hubble Space Telescope close-ups of the starforming complex. 
Described as elephant trunks or Pillars of Creation, dense, dusty columns rising near the center are light-years in length but are gravitationally contracting to form stars. Energetic radiation from the cluster stars erodes material near the tips, eventually exposing the embedded new stars. Extending from the ridge of bright emission left of center is another dusty starforming column known as the Fairy of Eagle Nebula. M16 lies about 7,000 light-years away, an easy target for binoculars or small telescopes in a nebula rich part of the sky toward the split constellation Serpens Cauda (the tail of the snake)."

Gerald Celente, "Omicron Virus Up, Bitcoin, Oil, Equities Down. What's Next?"

Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, 12/9/21:
"Omicron Virus Up, Bitcoin, Oil, Equities Down. What's Next?"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

"Insiders Are Struggling To Hide The Incoming Economic Collapse"

Full screen recommended.
"Insiders Are Struggling To Hide The Incoming Economic Collapse"
by Epic Economist

"For several decades, so-called "experts" and economists who worked closely with the mainstream media have helped to push forward narratives controlled by the elites, which disregarded our true problems and redirected people's attention to other issues that served as a smokescreen. They have effectively helped to keep millions of Americans in the dark when it comes to our our true economic conditions. But thanks to some dissonant voices who have been brave enough to speak up, many of us started to see things how they really are.

That's why we always report alternative opinions of experts, economists, industry leaders, executives and workers who expose the reality the mainstream media doesn't. These are the ones actually helping to combat disinformation. They incite people to become critical thinkers and question what is truly going on behind the covers. Writer and economic analyst Brandon Smith is one of them. In a recent brilliantly written article, Smith highlights why now more than ever is time to wake up and prepare for the economic collapse no one thinks possible.

The mainstream media always portrayed the Fed as the "savior" of the U.S. economy, and policymakers as "heroes", arguing that the bank's measures allegedly helped to prevent an economic collapse. But instead of using real economic indicators as a measure of economic health, they pointed to the stock market as proof the economy was booming. Of course, stock markets are largely benefited by Quantitative Easing policies, which push stocks to skyrocket, especially in times of crisis, like what happened during the 2008 credit crash. But as Smith notes, "reality isn’t a mainstream media story. The U.S. economy isn’t the stock market."

Ultimately, all the Federal Reserve managed to acomplish was to forge a devil's bargain: "Trading one manageable deflationary crisis for at least one or more highly unmanageable inflationary crises down the road. Central banks kicked the can on the collapse, making it far worse in the process," he explained. Right now, the U.S. economy is in a very fragile state. Everything is gradually falling apart because these policies are starting to falter. In essence, without the Fed's easy money, the stock market boom rapidly transforms into a burst. The last time the Fed flirted with tapering in 2018, we all seen how fast markets overreacted.

For a long time, the writer has been warning that bankers would use a cover event to hide their calculated economic attack, in that eay. they wouldn't be held accountable for the resulting disaster. Needless to say, the health crisis, strict lockdowns and supply chain bottlenecks have effectively provided that cover event. After the health crisis started, the Fed expanded the U.S. money supply exponentially. In two years, it injected more than $6 trillion in the economy through stimulus checks and helicopter money. To make things worse, the new administration is planning to issue another $1 trillion spending plan even though it just passed a very expensive infrastructure bill.

When inflation becomes rampant, the Federal Reserve may be forced to aggressively raise interest rates in a short span of time. Consequently, that will cause "an immediate slowdown in the flow of overnight loans to major banks, an immediate slowdown in loans to large and small businesses, an immediate crash in credit options for consumers, and an overall crash in consumer spending". According to official consumer price index (CPI) calculations and data released by the Fed, we're experiencing the fastest inflationary surge in over 30 years. But the story behind the data is much more alarming.

What we're witnessing today is the culmination of several years of central bank stimulus sabotage and multiple administrations coming in and out and supporting multiple dollar devaluation measures. The new administration is just the one that will put the final nail in the coffin of the U.S. economy. Painful price spikes in essential goods and services are accelerating poverty, food insecurity and homelessness. It's simply impossible for wages to keep up with such skyrocketing costs. At this stage, the mainstream media can't hide the fact that stagflation is already happening and it poses a major threat to the economy and our lives.

The truth us that those in a vulnerable position, stricken by homelessness and food insecurity, are more likely to accept the establishment's draconian solutions. That's why the government is letting so many people fall straight into poverty. That's how they break us to rule us. It's urgent that we spread this message, because each prepared person is an obstacle to authoritarianism. Now, more than ever it's time to decide which side you're on."

Gregory Mannarino, "Moronic Hits Crude, The IMF Warns On Inflation, More Calls For A Stock Market Drop"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 12/9/21:
"Moronic Hits Crude, The IMF Warns On Inflation, 
More Calls For A Stock Market Drop"

"The Swamp Wins Again"

"The Swamp Wins Again"
by Brian Maher

“For the second time this fall, the Senate’s proud king of obstruction is caving to the Democrats.” This we learn from The Atlantic magazine. Who precisely is the Senate’s “proud king of obstruction”... who has twice caved to Democrats this fall?

He is none other than Senate Minority “Leader” Mitchell McConnell - senior senator from the Bluegrass State of Kentucky. The Atlantic: "Two months ago [yesterday], Mitch McConnell sent President Joe Biden a letter containing a warning so important that he repeated it three times in five paragraphs. The Senate Republican leader vowed that he would “not be a party to any future effort” to help Democrats lift the debt ceiling - a necessary step that Congress must take to avoid an economically damaging default. Yet two months on, the same Senate Minority Leader McConnell is party to an effort to help Democrats lift the debt ceiling: “I think this is in the best interest of the country, and I think it is in the best interest of Republicans.”

In the Best Interest of Republicans: We are far from convinced it is in the best interest of the country. Yet we agree, it is in the best interest of Republicans. If they cannot spend they can scratch no backs. They can grease no palms. They cannot sugar their corporate donors.

Of course we care not one whit about Republicans. Nor do we care one whit about Democrats. As an American patriot in whose veins course the reddest blood, our sole concern is the nation’s welfare - general and otherwise. And we believe the nation is sunk far too deeply in debt as the situation stands. We would empty out red ink rather than pump in more. Sen. McConnell and his brethren and sistren… with their backbones of goosh and their bellies of jelly… are pumping more in.

The Swamp Strikes a Deal: The “deal” is a masterwork of parliamentary wizardry, a wonder of procedural gimmickry. That is, it is humbug, it is bafflegab, it is brummagem. It is eyewash, it is bosh, it is tosh. It is bamboozling, it is duping, it is hoodwinking, it is wool-pulling. In one word… it is politics.

Here the Washington Examiner gives the slime-drenched, swamp-stenched details: "Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have agreed to a classic, albeit craven, "uniparty" scheme. As part of a larger bill to stave off scheduled cuts to Medicare spending, the House and Senate will agree to a provision that sets up a special, one-time, filibuster-exempt, 51-vote resolution to raise the debt ceiling.

To put it more specifically, at least 10 Republicans will vote with Democrats to provide the 60 votes necessary to pass the Medicare legislation, which provides for a privileged resolution that circumvents the filibuster and allows Democrats to raise the debt ceiling with just 51 votes.

More: For a time, Senate Republicans demanded Democrats use reconciliation procedures to pass the debt ceiling - a strategy they would stick to if they were serious about making Democrats go it alone. But in establishing a one-off exception for the debt ceiling, McConnell will not only have made it far easier for the debt ceiling to be raised with Republican support, but he will also have given Democrats a politically preferential precedent to demand similar filibuster carveouts in the future - for climate change, gun control, amnesty, take your pick. All of this, remember, is simply to create the illusion that Senate Republicans are opposed to raising the debt ceiling, to cloak their true motivation behind layers of Senate procedure they’ll deem too complicated for you to understand.

What a Shock!!! We are only surprised that any can be surprised. Sen. McConnell first blinked his bespectacled blue eyes in October. That is when he stamped an agreement to fund the federal government through Dec. 3. The first eye-blink was merely prelude to this, the second eye-blink.

With the pleasure of repeating ourself… here is an excerpt from Oct. 7’s reckoning: "Of course, Congress would never permit an authentic government shutdown. One fellow attempts to seize concessions from the other… to make him blink first. The other pursues an identical strategy. But they come to terms by the fatal hour. The political combat before us is thus reduced to spectacle, a professional wrestling bout with its false feuds, artificial blows and imitation blood. The outcome is pre-decided."

And so today the soda can goes rolling down the roadway, kicked plenty hard. You will be treated to the identical show in December, when the present arrangement terminates - depend on it… We expect additional eye-blinking… and from the identical Senate minority leader.

The Triumph of the Uniparty: And so it has come to pass. Sen. McConnell has blinked his eyes - and he has closed his eyes to the staggering debts he is helping place upon the nation’s straining back. But as things pertain to borrowing and spending, Republicans and Democrats are as united as any lovers could ever be. Threaten to choke them off. Then watch the warfare immediately halt. Then watch the hands of peace come extending from both sides.

This we have just witnessed. The late Joseph Sobran labeled Democrats “the evil party.” Republicans were “the stupid party.” Thus he concluded that “bipartisanship” yields outcomes both evil and stupid. We believe his conclusion has juice in it.

The Purpose of Republicans: We expect Democrats to spend grandly and gorgeously. Since Roosevelt - the second Roosevelt - they have read the identical electoral blueprint. But Republicans traditionally existed for two purposes: to lower taxes and to square the ledgers. You wished to spend money you did not have? And throw open the Treasury to the public? “No!” was the thunderous answer you could expect. Like a sour, scowling schoolmarm with steel in her eye and a rattan in her hand… they might not have been popular. But you knew where they were. And you could trust them with the checkbook. They kept good order.

Long Gone: But these Republicans are no more. They are gone as fedoras, monocles, bowties and spats are gone. They turned away from their old-time fiscal religion, made their peace with Big Government… and got elected. The reformationists labelled the old religion “root canal economics.” They sat down beside Mr. Arthur Laffer and his famous curve. They discovered they could spend like Democrats without taxing like Democrats. They could get elected on credit. Deficits did not matter in the new catechism. Only a few Republican holdouts remain to keep the tablets.

Sold Down a River: Thus fiscal responsibility lies dead beneath several feet of earth, dead beyond all hope of recall. And so today we drop another tear upon its lonesome, desolate and unvisited grave. As we have noted before, Republicans once defended the approaches to the United States Treasury. But they have since sold the pass. And both parties have sold us all down a river…"

"The Economy is Running on Fumes - Middle Class is Getting Destroyed"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly, PM 12/9/21:
"The Economy is Running on Fumes - 
Middle Class is Getting Destroyed"
"How do people afford the increases that are happening all around them? Every day there’s a new major expense getting reported. Health insurance is the latest major increase. This includes housing, food, clothing and everything else in our lives."

The Daily "Near You?"

Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire, United Kingdom.
Thanks for stopping by!

"In All Seriousness..."

"Thomas Edison said in all seriousness: "There is no expedient to which a man will not resort to avoid the labor of thinking"- if we bother with facts at all, we hunt like bird dogs after the facts that bolster up what we already think- and ignore all the others! We want only the facts that justify our acts- the facts that fit in conveniently with our wishful thinking and justify our preconceived prejudices. As Andre Maurois put it: "Everything that is in agreement with our personal desires seems true. Everything that is not puts us into a rage." Is it any wonder, then, that we find it so hard to get at the answers to our problems? Wouldn't we have the same trouble trying to solve a second-grade arithmetic problem, if we went ahead on the assumption that two plus two equals five? Yet there are a lot of people in this world who make life a hell for themselves and others by insisting that two plus two equals five- or maybe five hundred!"
- Dale Carnegie

"Life, eh?"

"We said together, wistfully, 'Life, eh?' It says everything without having to say anything: that we all experience moments of joyful or painful reflection, sometimes alone, sometimes sharing laughs and tears with others; that we all know and appreciate that however wonderful and precious life is, it can equally be a terribly confusing and mysterious beast. 'Life, eh?'"
- Miranda Hart

The Poet: Langston Hughes, "Dreams"

"Dreams"

"Hold fast to dreams
For if dreams die
Life is a broken-winged bird
That cannot fly.
Hold fast to dreams
For when dreams go
Life is a barren field
Frozen with snow."

- Langston Hughes

"How It Really Is"

 

"Hint of Truth"

"Hint of Truth"
by Bill Bonner

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – "In the news yesterday came a report from FantasyLand that a nonexistent social media company had chosen a non-tech, non-media executive to head up its nonexistent operations. CNET reports: "GOP Rep. Devin Nunes to leave Congress to run Trump's media company. The California Republican has been one of the former president's most ardent supporters."

Our premise here at the Diary is that it is real money that keeps our shoulders to the wheel and our feet on the ground. We want it. And we get it by providing goods and services to others. That is why a “capitalist” economy is so much more productive, prosperous, and polite than a “socialist” economy. The “hidden hand,” as 18th-century economist Adam Smith called it, guides people to increase the wealth of others as well as themselves. But substitute fake money for real money… and even a capitalist system soon goes giddy with corruption, malinvestment, and waste. And substitute an “ardent supporter” for a real entrepreneur or businessman… and… well… investors are probably better off keeping their money in their pockets.

Midas Touch: Axiomatic in a fake-money economy is that real capital is squandered on projects that never produce a profit (an increase to the world’s wealth). This is the story of one of them. Behind it is a remarkable story of a remarkable man with a remarkable career… and a remarkable new plan for separating investors from their money. Yes, we speak of Donald J. Trump, impresario, former president, entertainer, developer… and who knows what else.

Mr. Trump (and a few Wall Street whizzes in cahoots with him) set up a SPAC (special-purpose acquisition company), Digital World Acquisition Company (DWAC). The sole aim of this company was to purchase a media company, Trump Media and Technology Group, that they also set up.

There is nothing particularly notable about a SPAC. People with name recognition set them up. Other people invest in them. Then, the SPAC is supposed to go out into the real world and buy a real company… thus putting the acquired company on the public stock market – without all the usual IPO rigamarole – and making SPAC investors a lot of money. At least, that’s how investors think it works.

In this case, the DWAC stock soared when the deal to purchase Trump Media and Technology Group was announced – leading to a nearly 850% gain for investors in a couple of days. And this is not the first time money has been made and lost by attaching the Trump name to a long-shot deal. Set up by Trump himself, there was Trump Shuttle… and Trump University. And now, others have gotten in on the act, with a Trump crypto… and a Baby Trump crypto… and another token with the same initials as Trump’s new “media and technology” company, TMTG (interestingly named The Midas Touch Gold).

Clear and Present Danger: Your editor admits to some first-hand knowledge of the SPAC world. One of the companies with which he is associated recently completed a SPAC deal. In our experience… and by our cynical reckoning of the way the world works… it is unlikely that most SPAC deals will lead to any real-world business success. Businesses are complex. SPAC promoters generally lack the experience or the determination to fully grasp them. What SPAC organizers have is a pot of money from investors… and a keen motivation to spend it.

If they buy nothing, they have to return the money. But if they buy something, they get a part of the deal and come out ahead – whether it works for investors, or not. From the investors’ standpoint, this is not a good setup; it is a FantasyLand innovation, encouraging the SPAC organizers to pay too much for businesses they don’t really understand. And in the case of DWAC, there was nothing they could understand. The business didn’t exist.

Yes, Dear Reader, the odds that the Trump SPAC would lead to a successful business fell dramatically when the SPAC targeted Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG), another Trump company that is more wishful thinking than reality.

It’s hard enough to find a good business at a good price, especially with so many SPACs looking for them. A nonexistent business (one that has no sales, no managers, no patents, no offices, no profits, no coffee machine, no market niche, no brand, etc.) may be easy to propose… but it is much less likely to ever be profitable.

Buying a nonexistent business founded by the same people who started up the SPAC in the first place is also a clear and present danger. Typically, at least the seller knows his business. In this case, neither buyer nor seller has any idea how to build a successful social media company. And then, yesterday’s announcement – turning to a political hack with no experience either in technology or media, nor anything other than dairy farming (perhaps) and political chicanery (surely) – dooms the project altogether.

Fast Money: We might add, too, that “Truth Social,” Trump’s proposed social media platform, invites ridicule as well as losses. We humans only get a faint whiff of truth, rarely, when the wind is blowing in the right direction, and we have just suffered some crushing and humiliating loss. Truth 24/7 is much more than we can handle. And now… adding to the odds against investors… the pros are circling like vultures, ready to pick the carcass clean.

Over the weekend, the new Trump group announced that it had struck a deal to raise $1 billion from hedge funds and other large players. The deal gives these insiders the right to buy shares for 40% below the retail price. These are not patient, long-term investors, with faith in the new business or its new CEO. These are the fast-money mavens of FantasyLand, preying on ideologically driven, naive “investors,” who think they can make the world a better place… and make money, too. Apparently, the insiders think the stock is way overpriced. Apparently, too, they expect to make money in the old-fashioned way… buying at wholesale… and selling to the rubes at retail.

This is okay with us. It’s fun to watch. And however it goes, we’ll claim it proves our Diary maxim – that “investors don’t get what they want or what they expect; they get what they deserve.” And in this case, as the new project inevitably heads to the finance morgue, they are likely to get a hint of Truth as a bonus."

"Rising Prices And More Empty Shelves At Kroger!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 12/9/21:
"Rising Prices And More Empty Shelves At Kroger!"
"In today's vlog we are at Kroger with a lot of empty shelves. We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and to get a few items of course they don't have. It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products! Thank you so much for watching, and we'll see you in the next video!"

Gregory Mannarino, "Is A Stock Market Drop Imminent? This Is What You Need To Know Now"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 12/9/21:
"Is A Stock Market Drop Imminent? 
This Is What You Need To Know Now"

Wednesday, December 8, 2021

Musical Interlude: 2002, "River Of Stars"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "River Of Stars"

"Your Money Is Not Safe On A Computer Screen; Don't Buy A New Car; Everyone Is Quitting Their Jobs"

Full screen recommended.
Jeremiah Babe, PM 12/8/21:
"Your Money Is Not Safe On A Computer Screen; Don't Buy A New Car;
Everyone Is Quitting Their Jobs"

Gerald Celente & The Judge: "We've Lost Our Freedom; New Omicron Mandates"

Gerald Celente & The Judge:
 "We've Lost Our Freedom; New Omicron Mandates"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What’s Next in these increasingly turbulent times."

"The Biggest Fall in 60 Years"

"The Biggest Fall in 60 Years"
by Brian Maher

"The Daily Reckoning, June 27, 2019: “Given the finite ability to service debt outstanding… future economic growth, if we are to have it, will need to be based largely on gains in productivity.”

CNBC, Dec. 7, 2021: “Labor productivity fell at the fastest rate in more than 60 years in the third quarter, according to a Labor Department report Tuesday.”

It is true, supply chain disorders have played the devil with economic functioning. Equally true, the virus has been working its mischief. Yet economists had promised us galloping 2021 economic growth after 2020’s tumults. The tumults continue nonetheless. When will they clear on through? We have yet to encounter a plausible answer.

Trillions More Debt: Meantime, debt levels have streaked to impossible heights since June 27, 2019. The virus and the ensuing monetary and fiscal deliriums were still one year distant. The United States government has heaped on an additional $6 trillion of debt in the intervening space. Today’s national debt exceeds $29 trillion.

In 2019’s fourth quarter, the United States debt-to-GDP ratio went at 106% — itself plenty handsome. In 2021’s current quarter the same ratio runs to 125%. Private debt represented 218% of GDP in 2019. In 2020 private debt represented 235% of GDP.

We lack data for 2021, yet hazard no meaningful reducing. And now we learn productivity is plunging at the dizziest rate in over 60 years.

Productivity = Growth: Productivity growth transformed these United States from a stump-toothed backwater into a global behemoth, an economic Colossus bestride the world. Michael Lebowitz of Real Investment Advice: “Productivity growth over the last 350-plus years is what allowed America to grow from a colonial outpost into the world’s largest and most prosperous economic power.”

Productivity growth averaged 4–6% for the 30 years post-WWII. But average productivity has languished between 0–2% since 1980. Meantime, labor productivity averaged 3.2% annual growth from World War II to the end of the 20th century. And since 2011? A mere 0.7%.

Even the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco stares the problem square in the eyes: "Estimates suggest the new normal pace for U.S. GDP growth remains 1.5–1.75%, noticeably slower than the typical pace since World War II…A larger challenge is productivity. Achieving GDP growth consistently above 1.75% will require much faster productivity growth than the United States has typically experienced since the 1970s."

Gold and Productivity: What might account for America’s declining productivity growth? We have previously raised a possibility: Look to Nixon’s 1971 slamming of the gold window. The gold standard, though a sad caricature of a gold standard in its dying days, nonetheless enforced an honesty. A wastrel nation that consumed more than it produced would eventually run through its gold stocks.

The fiat dollar, the unbacked dollar, lifted the penalty. It could take things in without sending gold out. A liberated Federal Reserve finally struck its golden shackles… spread its nets… and ensnared the nation in debt. In 1970 — the year before Nixon cut the dollar’s final tether to gold — public debt totaled $371 billion. Or in today’s dollars, some $2.6 trillion.

U.S. public debt today exceeds $29 trillion… and fast approaching $30 trillion. Lebowitz: "The stagnation of productivity growth started in the early 1970s. To be precise it was the result, in part, of the removal of the gold standard and the resulting freedom the Fed was granted to foster more debt… over the last 30 years the economy has relied more upon debt growth and less on productivity to generate economic activity. “Unfortunately, productivity requires work, time and sacrifice,” he adds."

The Financialization of America: Yet the emerging American economy abandoned the grimy toil of the factory floor and the workbench…. and struck out for Wall Street. It went chasing after the fast buck — the easy buck. The financialization of the American economy was underway. Ten percent of GDP in 1970, the finance industry grew to 20% of GDP by 2010… like weeds mushrooming through an abandoned factory.

And as weeds choke a flowering garden, finance choked the flowering of labor…The bottom 90% of American earners advanced steadily from the early 1940s through the early 1970s. But they’ve been sliding back ever since — or held even at best. In contrast we find the top 1% of earners…From 1920 to the early 1970s they lost ground to the bottom 90%. But beginning around 1980 they went leaping ahead… and began showing society their dust.

Good or Bad? But perhaps we can declare the race a draw. Labor’s loss is simply capital’s gain. The economy as a whole comes out even. Money has merely shifted pockets. Perhaps the transaction even benefits the economy. Capital could wring more productive use out of it than labor. But has the United States economy benefited from financialization?

A financialized economy demands perpetually expanding credit — debt — to keep the show going. Servicing that debt absorbs increasing amounts of society’s income. That, in turn, leaves less to save… and to invest in productive assets. Speculation goes amok. Economists Gerald Epstein and Juan Antonio Montecino have plowed through the numbers. These numbers reveal that financialization is — in fact — economically destructive.

A $22.7 Trillion Drain: Since 1990… these gentlemen conclude the financial sector has drained trillions and trillions from the United States economy: "What has this flawed financial system cost the U.S. economy?… We estimate these costs by analyzing three components: (1) rents, or excess profits; (2) misallocation costs, or the price of diverting resources away from non-financial activities; and (3) crisis costs, meaning the cost of the 2008 financial crisis. Adding these together, we estimate that the financial system will impose an excess cost of as much as $22.7 trillion between 1990 and 2023, making finance in its current form a net drag on the American economy.

$22.7 trillion exceeds 2020 GDP by nearly $2 trillion. 2020 was a locust year, yet the central thesis stands: Financialization represents a vast economic wastage.
 Yet these gentlemen settled upon their $22.7 trillion figure prior to the pandemic. We have seen no update. But we hazard it would be an even greater enormity. But the Federal Reserve must keep the show running with greater debt yet — else the curtain falls, and the lights go dark. It is a dreadful cycle. Eventually it leaves the cupboards bare. It leaves the future empty.

Compounding Negative Returns: Average real annual economic growth since 2009 runs to some 2.2%. Compare the past decade’s 2.2% with the larger 3.22% trend since 1980. One percentage point may seem a trifle. And one year to the next it is a trifle. Yet year upon year upon year it is not. Jim Rickards calculates the United States would be $4 trillion richer — had the 3.22% trend held this past decade. Run it 30, 50, 60 years… Jim concludes the nation would be twice as rich over a lifetime. Productivity is likely the lone way up. And productivity has just plunged at its greatest rate in 60 years…"

Gregory Mannarino, "A Scary 'Economic Disaster' Warning, And Is War Coming?"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 12/8/21:
"A Scary 'Economic Disaster' Warning, And Is War Coming?"

"Economists are Struggling to Hide the Economic Collapse"

Dan, iAllegedly, 12/8/21:
"Economists are Struggling to Hide the Economic Collapse"
"The opinions may vary, but the economists are having a difficult time hiding the impending economic collapse. Credit is maxed out and savings accounts are at an all time low. Main street is suffering while Wall Street thrives."

"A Look to the Heavens"

"These cosmic clouds have blossomed 1,300 light-years away, in the fertile starfields of the constellation Cepheus. Called the Iris Nebula, NGC 7023 is not the only nebula to evoke the imagery of flowers. Still, this deep telescopic image shows off the Iris Nebula's range of colors and symmetries, embedded in surrounding fields of interstellar dust. 
Within the Iris itself, dusty nebular material surrounds a hot, young star. The dominant color of the brighter reflection nebula is blue, characteristic of dust grains reflecting starlight. Central filaments of the reflection nebula glow with a faint reddish photoluminesence as some dust grains effectively convert the star's invisible ultraviolet radiation to visible red light. Infrared observations indicate that this nebula contains complex carbon molecules known as PAHs. The dusty blue petals of the Iris Nebula span about six light-years."

"What If..."

"What if when you die they ask, "How was Heaven?"
~ Author Unknown

A truly terrifying thought..

"And When It Happens..."

“Life will break you. Nobody can protect you from that, and living alone won’t either, for solitude will also break you with its yearning. You have to love. You have to feel. It is the reason you are here on earth. You are here to risk your heart. You are here to be swallowed up. And when it happens that you are broken, or betrayed, or left, or hurt, or death brushes near, let yourself sit by an apple tree and listen to the apples falling all around you in heaps, wasting their sweetness. Tell yourself you tasted as many as you could.”
- Louise Erdrich

The Poet: Theodore Roethke, "The Far Field"

"The Far Field"

I
"I dream of journeys repeatedly:
Of flying like a bat deep into a narrowing tunnel
Of driving alone, without luggage, out a long peninsula,
The road lined with snow-laden second growth,
A fine dry snow ticking the windshield,
Alternate snow and sleet, no on-coming traffic,
And no lights behind, in the blurred side-mirror,
The road changing from glazed tarface to a rubble of stone,
Ending at last in a hopeless sand-rut,
Where the car stalls,
Churning in a snowdrift
Until the headlights darken.

II
At the field's end, in the corner missed by the mower,
Where the turf drops off into a grass-hidden culvert,
Haunt of the cat-bird, nesting-place of the field-mouse,
Not too far away from the ever-changing flower-dump,
Among the tin cans, tires, rusted pipes, broken machinery,-
One learned of the eternal;
And in the shrunken face of a dead rat, eaten by rain and ground-beetles
(I found it lying among the rubble of an old coal bin)
And the tom-cat, caught near the pheasant-run,
Its entrails strewn over the half-grown flowers,
Blasted to death by the night watchman.
I suffered for young birds, for young rabbits caught in the mower,
My grief was not excessive.
For to come upon warblers in early May
Was to forget time and death:

How they filled the oriole's elm, a twittering restless cloud, all one morning,
And I watched and watched till my eyes blurred from the bird shapes,-
Cape May, Blackburnian, Cerulean,-
Moving, elusive as fish, fearless,
Hanging, bunched like young fruit, bending the end branches,
Still for a moment,
Then pitching away in half-flight,
Lighter than finches,
While the wrens bickered and sang in the half-green hedgerows,
And the flicker drummed from his dead tree in the chicken-yard.

- Or to lie naked in sand,
In the silted shallows of a slow river,
Fingering a shell,
Thinking:
Once I was something like this, mindless,
Or perhaps with another mind, less peculiar;
Or to sink down to the hips in a mossy quagmire;
Or, with skinny knees, to sit astride a wet log,
Believing:
I'll return again,
As a snake or a raucous bird,
Or, with luck, as a lion.
I learned not to fear infinity,
The far field, the windy cliffs of forever,
The dying of time in the white light of tomorrow,
The wheel turning away from itself,
The sprawl of the wave,
The on-coming water.

III
The river turns on itself,
The tree retreats into its own shadow.
I feel a weightless change, a moving forward
As of water quickening before a narrowing channel
When banks converge, and the wide river whitens;
Or when two rivers combine, the blue glacial torrent
And the yellowish-green from the mountainy upland,-
At first a swift rippling between rocks,
Then a long running over flat stones
Before descending to the alluvial plane,
To the clay banks, and the wild grapes hanging from the elmtrees.
The slightly trembling water
Dropping a fine yellow silt where the sun stays;
And the crabs bask near the edge,
The weedy edge, alive with small snakes and bloodsuckers,-
I have come to a still, but not a deep center,
A point outside the glittering current;
My eyes stare at the bottom of a river,
At the irregular stones, iridescent sandgrains,
My mind moves in more than one place,
In a country half-land, half-water.

I am renewed by death, thought of my death,
The dry scent of a dying garden in September,
The wind fanning the ash of a low fire.
What I love is near at hand,
Always, in earth and air.

IV
The lost self changes,
Turning toward the sea,
A sea-shape turning around,-
An old man with his feet before the fire,
In robes of green, in garments of adieu.
A man faced with his own immensity
Wakes all the waves, all their loose wandering fire.
The murmur of the absolute, the why
Of being born falls on his naked ears.
His spirit moves like monumental wind
That gentles on a sunny blue plateau.
He is the end of things, the final man.

All finite things reveal infinitude:
The mountain with its singular bright shade
Like the blue shine on freshly frozen snow,
The after-light upon ice-burdened pines;
Odor of basswood on a mountain-slope,
A scent beloved of bees;
Silence of water above a sunken tree:
The pure serene of memory in one man,-
A ripple widening from a single stone
Winding around the waters of the world."

- Theodore Roethke

"The Art And Science..."

 

"We All Live in a Metaversian Cosmos"

"We All Live in a Metaversian Cosmos"
by Bill Bonner

"We all live in a yellow submarine
Yellow submarine, yellow submarine
We all live in a yellow submarine
Yellow submarine, yellow submarine..."
– “Yellow Submarine” by The Beatles

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – "A storm passed over Ireland yesterday. The power went off. Trees blew down. The roof of an old shed flew off. Oh… if we could only live in the Metaverse… where the only things that happen are things we want to happen. If only we knew where to find it!

Here on Planet Earth, life goes on. And with so many hours… so many resources… so much brain power and capital applied to the fantasy world, it is not surprising that the real world feels a little neglected. Here’s the latest news from Breitbart: "Productivity Crashes More Than Expected." "The productivity of U.S. workers in the third quarter of 2021 dropped at a rate of 5.2 percent, the Department of Labor said Tuesday. Economists had forecast productivity would decline by 4.9 percent. Unit labor costs soared at an annual rate of 9.6 percent in the third quarter of 2021, reflecting a 3.9 percent increase in hourly compensation and the decline in productivity."

That was more than expected. Analysts polled by Econoday had forecast unit labor costs to rise 8.3 percent… Let’s see… higher labor costs… less labor output. Is that a formula for success, or what?

Fantasy World: But in the fantasy world, assets get more and more valuable… even though they don’t produce any more wealth…houses go up so much that you can “take out” some of the value, without giving up floorspace…“crypto” currencies… meme stocks… NFTs… and money-losing companies can make you rich – even without sales, profits, goods or services, employees, skills, or tax bills. What in the real world can compete with that?

Yes, we all live in a yellow submarine now… in the deep calm of the metaversian cosmos. But where did it come from?

The Real Cost of Cheap Credit: An educated guess: from a flood of liquidity from the Federal Reserve, that buoyed up everything not firmly attached to the real world. For the last 10 years, scarcely anyone’s toes have been able to touch the bottom.

Even before the Wall Street bailout of 2008-2009, interest rates had been falsified by the Fed for many years. Cheap credit caused a bubble in the housing market that eventually cost up to 10 million American homeowners their homes. Wall Street lenders, however, got off scot-free. They should have taken their losses (they lent far too much money with far too little collateral). And the stock market should have gained a solid footing, but at a much lower level. Instead, the Fed lowered lending rates even further… and the water got deeper.

Today, the federal funds rate is all of 0.08% (essentially zero)… and inflation is running at 6.2%. In other words, the Fed is lending to member banks at a MINUS 6% rate. And by our calculations last month, in order to get ahead of inflation – as Paul Volcker did in 1980 – the Fed would have to put its funds rate up to almost 10%. Not going to happen.

Fleeting Fantasy: Meanwhile, the most important credit in the world, the U.S. 10-year bond, is trading at a nominal yield of 1.4%. But subtract the going inflation rate – 6.2% – and you see that the real yield is MINUS 4.8%. And now, after lending money for years at yields below inflation, is it any wonder that people retreat to fantasyland… a submarine quietly navigating beneath the tempestuous waves?

It is a place where time has stopped… and the future holds no risk. You will not age. No storms will blow up. No one will be shot or die of the omicron variant. Yes, it is a fantasy world. A make-believe world. A world that exists… but only as a fleeting aberration.

Is the Bubble Deflating? And what’s this? SoftBank, the Japanese company that has funded many fantasy start-ups, lost nearly 16% last week. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest, that invested so much money in them, lost about the same. And bitcoin… the coin of the new fantasy realm… lost a quarter of its peak value in the last month. How long before the fantasists need to come up for air?"

The Daily "Near You?"

Napier, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. Thanks for stopping by!

"Can Any Nation-State Survive the Era of Inequality and Scarcity?"

"Can Any Nation-State Survive
 the Era of Inequality and Scarcity?"
by Charles Hugh Smith

"The possibility that the United States could fragment is no longer a marginalized topic. Maps displaying various post-U.S. regional configurations accompany essays exploring how and why a break-up of the U.S. would be a solution to regional and ideological polarization, for example, Max Borders' recent article, "Dear America: It's Time to Break Up."

But two forces larger than political polarization may fragment nation-states across the globe, including the U.S.: inequality and scarcity. Inequality and corruption go hand in hand, of course, as the wealthiest few influence the state to protect their monopolies and backstop their speculative gains.

Inequality also goes hand in hand with the collapse of nation-states, as this seminal paper explains: "Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies." The parasitic elite can accumulate the majority of income, wealth, political power and resources in eras of expanding abundance, as what's left is enough to support an expanding populace that consumes more per capita every year, i.e. broad-based prosperity.

But once abundance transitions to scarcity, the economy and society can no longer sustain the dead weight of its outsized parasitic elite. The parasitic elite believes its bloated share of resources, wealth and power is not only sustainable but can be expanded without consequence, and so it deploys all its formidable power to keep the status quo unchanged even as scarcity lowers the living standards of the bottom 90% and hollows out the economy.

In effect, the modern central state, regardless of ideological label, optimizes inequality and growth. Once growth falters while inequality continues increasing, the only possible outcome is fragmentation and/or collapse. Put another way: the status quo is no longer the solution to inequality and scarcity, it is the problem. Private-sector and political elites are incapable of recognizing they are now the problem, and so the rapid unraveling of the status quo will come as a great shock to their magical-thinking confidence in their power.

The elite's delusional "solution" is a seamless, painless transition to a new era of abundance via "green energy." Unfortunately, this vision is 100% magical thinking, as all these projections ignore the physical realities of building out a global energy system that generates energy on the same scale as existing hydrocarbon energy sources. Read these three reports for reality-based assessments:

• "The New Energy Economy": An Exercise in Magical Thinking (manhattan-institute.org)
• "The Delusion of Infinite Economic Growth": Even "sustainable" technologies such as electric vehicles and wind turbines face unbreachable physical limits and exact grave environmental costs. (scientificamerican.com)
• "Assessment of the Extra Capacity Required of Alternative Energy Electrical Power Systems to Completely Replace Fossil Fuels" (PDF, Simon P. Michaux, Geological Survey of Finland) Read the 3-page abstract.

As explained in the first paper, inequality generates collapse and so does a decline in resources, i.e. scarcity. Put the two together and the only possible outcome is collapse of all centralized nation-states that optimize inequality and endless expansion of consumption. The issue isn't ideological labels or principles, it's whether the state solves problems or covers them up with fake fixes that accelerate collapse.

Nations which want to not just survive but emerge stronger have one path: a revolutionary transformation from "waste is growth" to degrowth, from an economy and state dominated by a parasitic elite to a strictly limited parasitic elite and from abject dependence on fragile supply chains originating in other nations to decentralized, localized independence for essentials.

I've written a book that is a template for this transformation. This book is the culmination of a lifetime of study, observation, experience and analysis: "Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy for the United States." Though I devote some analysis specifically to the U.S., the book is a template for any nation to not just survive scarcity but emerge stronger by evolving a degrowth economy and a decentralized political order. We have an extraordinary opportunity to transform our unsustainable "waste is growth" economy and toxic inequality to sustainable systems that optimize well-being rather than collapse. I'm offering the print edition at a 20% discount this month: print $20, Kindle ebook $8.95. You can read the Introduction and Chapter One for free (PDF).

This is me when I started thinking about these topics in 1972. Don't laugh too hard, you might hurt yourself..."

Gregory Mannarino, "The Federal Reserve WILL Do The Opposite Of What Everyone Expects"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 12/8/21:
"The Federal Reserve WILL Do 
The Opposite Of What Everyone Expects"