Saturday, June 15, 2024

"The Universe as Pool Hall"

"The Universe as Pool Hall"
by Fred Reed

"We will start this magisterial explanation of everything with the time-honored approach of the philosopher, beginning with the things we know beyond doubt and then reasoning from them to suitably astonishing truths. As we know, Descartes began by saying, “Cogito ergo sum,” I think therefore I am.” (Ambrose Bierce, a more profound thinker, said, “Cogito cogito, ergo cogito sum. Cogito.” Butthis way lies madness.) So with what certain knowledge can we begin our quest?

Our only certain knowledge is that we don’t have any. Acceptance of this condition will diminish the world’s output of philosophy, or so we may hope, but this column faces reality with a brave front. We may now list our certainties: We don’t know where we came from, where we are, why, what if anything we should do while we are here, and where if anywhere we go when we die.

On this bedrock we shall construct our philosophy of everything. However, before we begin thinking about these profound matters, we need to take into account one more certainty: Thinking is impossible. I will explain. But what it comes to is that while we know nothing about which to think, it doesn’t matter because we couldn’t think about it if we did know something.

Why? Consider the brain. It is an electrochemical mechanism, blindly obeying the laws of physics and chemistry (chemistry being the physics of the interactions of atoms). For example, consider a nerve impulse propagating along a neural fiber, depolarizing, sodium in, potassium out. Pure chemistry and physics. When the impulse comes to a synapse, a neurotransmitter diffuses across the gap, pure chemistry and physics. It can’t do anything else. Even chemicals with long, imposing names cannot make choices. The neurotransmitter then binds to receptor sites, because it has to. Textbooks of neurophysiology state it thus: “A brain has less free will than a wind-up clock.” Or at least if it were so stated, it would be. This is close enough for philosophy.

Putting it precisely, the state of a physical system is determined entirely by its previous state. This establishes beyond doubt that we have no free will, and that what we think are thoughts were determined at the time of the Big Bang, if any.

Now, no philosophical essay can be held in repute unless it contains words ending “ism.” The reigning creed today is materialism, the philosophy of the wantonly inattentive. Many who believe in materialism are of high intelligence, and so can only be sufficiently inattentive by great effort. Anyway, a materialist believes than nothing exists but space, time, matter, and energy, however hyphenated. That is, physics. As the physicist Joe Friday said, “The physics, ma’am, just the physics, and nothing but the physics.”

This means that the Big Bang, if any, was set up, or I suppose I should say, set itself up, like one of those billiard-table trick shots. You know the kind: The balls seem randomly placed on the table but bounce around a lot before miraculously running into the pockets like birds returning to their nests. In the Bang, if any, all those subatomic whatsamajigggers erupted forth at exactly the right angles and velocities so that, billions of years later, they formed Elvis, San Francisco, and Hillary. (This had to be by chance, since no one in his right mind would form Hillary on purpose. QED.)

Next, consider plane geometry as taught in high school. (You may wonder why we have to consider it. Well, we just do.) Plane geometry deals with planes, lines, points, angles, and nothing else. It is useful and interesting, but it cannot explain a cheeseburger, Formula One race, or political hysteria. Why? Because cheeseburgers exist in three dimensions, which plane geometry doesn’t have. Formula One races involve matter, energy, and motion, which plane geometry also doesn’t have. Hysteria is an emotional state associated with liberal co-eds in pricey northern colleges who, thank God, do not exist in mathematics.

What it comes to is that a logical system is defined by its premises, and all downstream results are mere elaboration. (Of course, as established in the beginning of this luminous essay, we have no premises except the lack of premises, but philosophy readily overlooks such minor hindrances.) Plane geometry is not wrong. It is just incomplete. To state it in mathematical terms, you cannot flatten a cheeseburger enough to fit into a plane.

Physics, the foundation of the current official story of everything, also depends on its premises. Physics is just mathematical materialism. From its equations one may derive all manner of fascinating and useful things, such as planetary motion, npn transistors, smartphones, nerve gas, and hydrogen bombs. (Some of these may be more useful than others.)

But, just as you cannot get strawberry milkshakes from plane geometry, because they are not implicit in it, there are things you cannot derive from the equations of physics: Consciousness, free will, beauty, morality, or curiosity – the whiches there just ain’t in physics. This would not worry a rational thinker. He (or, assuredly, she) would simply state the obvious: Physics is not wrong, but incomplete. It does what it does, and doesn’t do what it can’t. Not too mysterious, that.

However, the true-believing physics-is-all Neo-Darwinian matter-monger cannot admit that anything – anything at all – exists outside of physics. Since some things obviously do, the only-physics enthusiasts have to resort to contorted logic. I think of kite string in a ceiling fan. Or simple denial.

For example, sometimes they say that consciousness is merely an “epiphenomenon.” Oh. And what does that mean? Nothing. (Actually it means, “I don’t know, but if I use a polysyllabic Greek word, maybe nobody will notice.”) Epiphenomenon of what?

Sometimes they will say, “Well, consciousness is just a by-product of complexity.” But if consciousness is a byproduct what is the primary product? A computer is somewhat complex, so is it somewhat conscious? Is a mouse less conscious than a human or just, in some cases, less intelligent? A materialist ignoring consciousness is exactly equivalent to a geometer ignoring cheeseburgers.

We will now examine the question, where did we come from? The answer is ready to hand: We don’t have a clue. We make up stories. The physics-only folk say, see, there was the Big Bang and all these electrons and protons and things flew out and just by chance formed Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company in the most motingator a-stonishing pool-table trick shot ever set up. Just by accident. Damn! Who would have thought it?

Of course any sane person, to include materialists when they are thinking of something else, would say that TSMC was designed by hordes of Chinese engineers. But of course designing anything requires mind and intelligence (or a computer designed to simulate these things), But Mind cannot be derived from the equations of physics. Therefore we are all mindless. In general human behavior supports this.

Of course other stories exist. Yahweh created the world, or maybe Shiva, or Allah, and I think some remote tribes believe that it just appeared on the back of a giant turtle. I have no information on the matter, though frankly I incline to the turtle story, but will let the reader know the instant I find out.

The weakness of creation myths from Bang to Turtle is the question of the five-year-old, “But Mommy, where did God come from?” or “Who made God?” Fifteen years later in dorm-room bull sessions he will phrase it differently, “Well, what came before the Big Bang?” Same question.

A sort of second-echelon creation myth now in vogue is Darwinian evolution, also a subset of physics and therefore completely determined. Mutations are chemical events following the laws of chemistry. Thus trilobites had no choice but to form, and so they did. Metabolism is physical from the level of ATP to animals eating each other.

There is of course no such thing as a sex drive, teenagers notwithstanding, since no sort of drive can be derived from physics. (This will no doubt devastate Pornhub.) From this the inevitable conclusion, proven by physics, A that we cannot reproduce. Therefore we either have always existed or do not exist at all.

To give oneself an aura of overwelling wisdom, one may say things like ontology, epistemology, entelechy, and teleology, but these do not detract from mankind’s underlying and perfect ignorance. It’s all a trick shot, I tell you."
Food for thought...
"Existence from Nothing? 
What You Are And The Creation of the Universe"

"Democracy..."

 

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed 
(and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with 
an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."
- H. L. Mencken

"The Entire System Is Crumbling! Major Red Flags Are Popping Up For Banks, Small Businesses And Retailers"

"The Entire System Is Crumbling! Major Red Flags Are 
Popping Up For Banks, Small Businesses And Retailers"
by Michael Snyder

"The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; 
the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. 
But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists."
 - Ernest Hemingway 

"If the economy is fine, why are so many signs of trouble erupting all around us? Those that keep insisting that the U.S. economy is heading in the right direction conveniently ignore the very troubling facts and figures that I regularly share with my readers. When you take an honest look at the cold, hard numbers that the economy keeps producing, there is only one logical conclusion. Our entire system is crumbling, and it appears that conditions will soon get significantly worse.

Just look at what is happening to our banks. The FDIC’s most recent report tells us that there are 63 “problem banks” in the United States, and collectively our banks now have 517 billion dollars in unrealized losses…"According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s first quarter report, the US banking system is sitting on a collective $517 billion in unrealized losses and has 63 “problem banks.” Those losses have been sparked primarily by a surge in interest rates over the past two years, which have driven down the price of fixed-income securities held by banks.

Unrealized losses held by banks increased by $39 billion in the first quarter relative to the fourth quarter of 2023. “Higher unrealized losses on residential mortgage-backed securities, resulting from higher mortgage rates in the first quarter, drove the overall increase,” the FDIC said."

I would love to know what banks are on that list. Wouldn’t you? But the FDIC will not tell us. As Daisy Luther has accurately noted, the FDIC won’t release that information because they are afraid of bank runs…"We don’t get to know which banks are in trouble. It could be my bank. It could be yours. Or maybe it’s not. Are they big banks? Small ones? The list is confidential to inhibit the likelihood of bank runs finishing off these institutions."

So we just don’t know. If Americans had the truth, there would be bank runs all over the country tomorrow morning. That is a rather comforting thought. And the condition of our banks just continues to deteriorate because mountains of commercial real estate loans are going bad. At this point, it has become clear that we have never faced a commercial real estate crisis of this magnitude in our entire history…"The CRE sector faces the triple whammy of falling prices, falling demand, and rising interest rates. The post-pandemic rise of telecommuting and work-at-home programs crushed demand for office space. Vacancy rates in commercial buildings have soared. This has put significant stress on commercial real estate companies. The biggest bankruptcy in 2023 was the failure of the Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust. The company had loaded up with more than $1 billion in liabilities."

The collapse of the commercial real estate market could easily spill over into the financial sector. That’s because a lot of loans are coming due. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, around $1.2 trillion of commercial real estate debt in the United States will mature over the next two years. A lot of financial institutions will fail during the months and years that are ahead of us. Just hope that your money is not in one of them.

Meanwhile, one recent survey discovered that approximately two-thirds of all small businesses in the United States are teetering on the brink of disaster…"A new survey reveals that over two-thirds of small business owners are terrified of the state of the economy under Joe Biden’s watch, fearing that current conditions and ongoing downward trends will lead to them having to close their businesses.

As reported by the Daily Caller, the poll from the Job Creators Network Foundation (JCNF) shows that 67% of small business owners maintain such fears about the economy as it stands today, marking a 10-point increase from sentiments two years ago. In the same poll, participants’ perceptions of economic conditions for their own businesses fell from 70.2 to 68.1. Perception of national conditions fell even more drastically, from 53.2 to 50.4."

Maybe you don’t care about what is happening to our small businesses. But you should, because close to half of all workers in the United States are employed by small businesses…"Forbes estimates that at least 46% of all employees in the United States, around 61.6 million people in total, are employed by small businesses." I think that it is quite an ominous sign that the household survey showed that the U.S. economy lost a whopping 408,000 jobs last month. Sadly, I think that a lot more months like that are coming.

Retailers are also really struggling right now. In fact, as Mark B. Spiegel recently discussed, major retailer after major retailer has been reporting disappointing sales numbers…"The U.S. economy seems to finally be cracking. This month a slew of retailers (off the top of my head: Target, Lowe’s, Macy’s, Kohl’s, Best Buy and Foot Locker) reported negative year-over-year sales comps, and that’s before adjusting for the inflation that makes them 3% to 4% more negative in “real” terms. Others (Dollar General and Burlington) reported same-store sales comps in the +2% range, but that too was negative when adjusted for inflation, while Walmart and Nordstrom comps managed to roughly keep pace with inflation, but were unable to exceed it."

At one time, Walmart was an unstoppable retail behemoth. But now even Walmart is closing down stores…"WALMARTS are closing across the country – and retail experts say the cuts are signals of a bleak future for shoppers. The multi-million dollar corporation has closed nine stores so far this year, which could be a warning sign for other retail giants."

Of course the stores that Walmart is shuttering are just a drop in the bucket compared to what other chains are doing. As I detailed in an article that I posted last week, we are on pace to lose 7,800 stores in 2024.

When the Drudge Report used the term “retail apocalypse” in one of their headlines on Monday morning, that was not an exaggeration at all. We really are in the early stages of a historic meltdown. And the outlook for the months ahead is extremely bleak. In fact, Harry Dent just told Fox News that we should brace ourselves for “a bigger crash than we got in 2008 to ’09”…"Speaking in an updated interview with Fox News Digital, Dent cautioned that the “everything” bubble has still yet to burst, and it may be a bigger crash than the Great Recession.

“In 1925 to ‘29, it was a natural bubble. There was no stimulus behind that, artificial stimulus per se. So this is new. This has never happened,” Dent said on Tuesday. “What do you do if you want to cure a hangover? You drink more. And that’s what they’ve been doing.”

Flooding the economy with extra money forever might actually enhance the overall economy long-term. But we’ll only see when we see this bubble burst,” he added. “And again, this bubble has been going 14 years. Instead of most bubbles [going] five to six, it’s been stretched higher, longer. So you’d have to expect a bigger crash than we got in 2008 to ’09.”

Our leaders were able to keep the game going for years by pumping trillions upon trillions of dollars into the system. But they didn’t fix anything. Instead, they just delayed the inevitable. Our entire system really is crumbling all around us, and as it crumbles we are going to see chaos on a scale that most people don’t even want to imagine. Already, major cities from coast to coast are being terrorized by theft, violence, drugs, homelessness, gangs and anarchy. If things are this bad already, what is America going to look like once our leaders completely lose control of the economy?"
o
Snyder asks, "what is America going to look like once our leaders completely
 lose control of the economy?" Here's the answer, from sea to shining sea...
Full screen recommended.
Our 50 States, 6/15/24
"Homelessness in Texas:
 Growing Homeless Crisis in 2024"
"Homelessness in Texas: Explores the growing homeless crisis in Texas in 2024. According to the National Alliance to End Homelessness. Texas had an estimated 113,200 people experiencing homelessness on a single night in 2023. We examine the latest statistics, including the number of people experiencing homelessness, and delve into the causes like rising housing costs of living in Texas."
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Earnings Elevator, 6/15/24
"This hard-hitting video explores the stark realities of the homelessness crisis in two of America's most populous states: New York and California. With a combined homeless population of over 600,000 individuals, these states face an unprecedented challenge in addressing this growing issue.

Through a thorough examination into the latest statistics, demographics, and personal stories, this video paints a vivid picture of the hardships faced by those experiencing homelessness. From the disproportionate impact on Black, Latinx, and Native American communities to the vulnerability of single adults, families with children, and unaccompanied youth, the video highlights the complex nature of this crisis.

The video also examines the financial burden of homelessness on both states, the debate surrounding homeless encampment bans, and the urgent need for affordable housing solutions. By combining data-driven analysis with powerful personal narratives, this video aims to raise awareness, foster empathy, and inspire action towards addressing this critical issue.

Join us as we explore the human stories behind the statistics and emphasize the importance of providing hope and opportunities for those experiencing homelessness in New York, California, and beyond. "
Comments here:

Included are over 60,000 homeless veterans, 22 of whom commit suicide every day.

Adventures With Danno, "Kroger Items Everyone Should Be Buying Right Now!"

Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, 6/15/24
"Kroger Items Everyone Should Be Buying Right Now!"
Kroger is having a massive sale on many food items and beyond right now. 
 Take advantage of these different deals before the prices go up!
Comments here:
o

Free Download: "The Bhagavad-Gita"

“Now, I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.”
- Vishnu, the Bhagavad-Gita

"Bhagavad-gita is knowledge of five basic truths and the relationship of each truth to the other: These five truths are Krishna, or God, the individual soul, the material world, action in this world, and time. The Gita lucidly explains the nature of consciousness, the self, and the universe. It is the essence of India's spiritual wisdom, the answers to questions posed by philosophers for centuries. In translating the Gita, A. C. Bhaktivedanta Swami Prabhupada has remained loyal to the intended meaning of Krishna's words, and thus he has unlocked all the secrets of the ancient knowledge of the Gita and placed them before us as an exciting opportunity for self-improvement and spiritual fulfillment. The Gita is a conversation between Krishna and His dear friend Arjuna. At the last moment before entering a battle between brothers and friends, the great warrior Arjuna begins to wonder: Why should he fight? What is the meaning of his life? Where is he going after death? In response, Krishna brings His friend from perplexity to spiritual enlightenment, and each one of us is invited to walk the same path."
Freely download "The Bhagavad-Gita" here:

The Poet: Czeslaw Milosz, “A Song On The End Of The World”

“A Song On The End Of The World”

“On the day the world ends
A bee circles a clover,
A fisherman mends a glimmering net.
Happy porpoises jump in the sea,
By the rainspout young sparrows are playing
And the snake is gold-skinned as it should always be.

On the day the world ends
Women walk through the fields under their umbrellas,
A drunkard grows sleepy at the edge of a lawn,
Vegetable peddlers shout in the street
And a yellow-sailed boat comes nearer the island,
The voice of a violin lasts in the air
And leads into a starry night.

And those who expected lightning and thunder
Are disappointed.
And those who expected signs and archangels’ trumps
Do not believe it is happening now.
As long as the sun and the moon are above,
As long as the bumblebee visits a rose,
As long as rosy infants are born
No one believes it is happening now.

Only a white-haired old man, who would be a prophet
Yet is not a prophet, for he’s much too busy,
Repeats while he binds his tomatoes:
There will be no other end of the world,
There will be no other end of the world.”

~ Czeslaw Milosz

Friday, June 14, 2024

Canadian Prepper, "Emergency Alert! NATO Nuclear Warplanes Moved To Bunkers

Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 6/14/24
"Emergency Alert! NATO Nuclear Warplanes Moved To Bunkers
Poland Warns To Leave Russia Immediately"
Comments here:

"It would indeed be a tragedy if the history of the human
 race proved to be nothing more than the story of an ape 
playing with a box of matches on a petrol dump."
- David Ormsby-Gore, 5th Baron Harlech

Incomprehensible insanity. It was nice knowing you, folks...
o
"NUKEMAP"
by  Alex Wellerstein

"We live in a world where nuclear weapons issues are on the front pages of our newspapers on a regular basis, yet most people still have a very bad sense of what an exploding nuclear weapon can actually do. Some people think they destroy everything in the world all that once, some people think they are not very different from conventional bombs. The reality is somewhere in between: nuclear weapons can cause immense destruction and huge losses of life, but the effects are still comprehendible on a human scale. 

The NUKEMAP is aimed at helping people visualize nuclear weapons on terms they can make sense of, helping them to get a sense of the scale of the bombs. By allowing people to use arbitrarily picked geographical locations, I hope that people will come to understand what a nuclear weapon would do to places they are familiar with, and how the different sizes of nuclear weapons change the results. There are many different political interpretations one can legitimately take away from such results. There is not intended to be a simple political "message" of the NUKEMAP."
Access NUKEMAP here:

Jeremiah Babe, "Broke Americans Are Burning Through Credit Cards At Disneyland"

Jeremiah Babe, 6/14/24
"Broke Americans Are Burning Through Credit Cards At Disneyland;
Fantasyland Will End In Tragedy"
Comments here:

"15 Products That Will Double In Price This Summer"

Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 6/14/24
"15 Products That Will Double In Price This Summer"

"As the summer months approach, consumers often anticipate a season of relaxation, outdoor activities, and family gatherings. However, this year, the joy of summer could come with a hefty price tag. Many products are poised to experience significant price hikes, with some potentially doubling in cost. Factors such as increased demand, supply chain disruptions, and economic shifts are converging to create a perfect storm for price inflation. From essential groceries to popular outdoor equipment, the financial impact could be felt across a wide range of goods.

In this video, we will explore 15 products that are likely to see substantial price increases over the next couple of months. By identifying these trends early, consumers can make informed decisions to mitigate the financial strain. Understanding which products are expected to surge in price allows for strategic planning and early purchases, ensuring that essential items remain within reach despite the rising costs.

The importance of proactive preparation cannot be overstated. You should consider this a call to action: review your needs, monitor price changes, and stock up on necessary goods before seasonal demand peaks. By doing so, you can protect your budget and enjoy the summer without the stress of inflated prices. Stay ahead of the curve and take charge of your summer spending now to avoid the crunch of soaring costs later. Without further ado, let's check out this list!"
Comments here:

Musical Interlude: 2002, "The End Is a Beginning"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "The End Is a Beginning"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Over 400,000 light years across NGC 6872 is an enormous spiral galaxy, at least 4 times the size of our own very large Milky Way. About 200 million light-years distant, toward the southern constellation Pavo, the Peacock, the remarkable galaxy’s stretched out shape is due to its ongoing gravitational interaction, likely leading to an eventual merger, with the nearby smaller galaxy IC 4970. IC 4970 is seen just below and right of the giant galaxy’s core in this cosmic color portrait from the 8 meter Gemini South telescope in Chile.
The idea to image this titanic galaxy collision comes from a winning contest essay submitted to the Gemini Observatory by the Sydney Girls High School Astronomy Club. In addition to inspirational aspects and aesthetics, club members argued that a color image would be more than just a pretty picture. In their winning essay they noted that “If enough color data is obtained in the image it may reveal easily accessible information about the different populations of stars, star formation, relative rate of star formation due to the interaction, and the extent of dust and gas present in these galaxies.”

"Benedicto"

"Benedicto"
“May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view. May your mountains rise into and above the clouds. May your rivers flow without end, meandering through pastoral valleys tinkling with bells, past temples and castles and poets' towers into a dark primeval forest where tigers belch and monkeys howl, through miasmal and mysterious swamps and down into a desert of red rock, blue mesas, domes and pinnacles and grottos of endless stone, and down again into a deep vast ancient unknown chasm where bars of sunlight blaze on profiled cliffs, where deer walk across the white sand beaches, where storms come and go as lightning clangs upon the high crags, where something strange and more beautiful and more full of wonder than your deepest dreams waits for you - beyond that next turning of the canyon walls.”
- Edward Abbey

"The summit is believed to be the object of the climb. But its true object - the joy of living - is not in the peak itself, but in the adversities encountered on the way up. There are valleys, cliffs, streams, precipices, and slides, and as he walks these steep paths, the climber may think he cannot go any farther, or even that dying would be better than going on. But then he resumes fighting the difficulties directly in front of him, and when he is finally able to turn and look back at what he has overcome, he finds he has truly experienced the joy of living while on life's very road."
- Eiji Yoshikawa

"Listen..."

 

Chet Raymo, “The Uses of Enchantment”

“The Uses of Enchantment”
by Chet Raymo

“There was a time when every wood, every tree, was thought to be inhabited by spirits called dryads, every pool and stream by naiads. Even not so long ago, our road here in Ireland was called “the fairies’ road.” The world, we say, was enchanted - every stone and plant infused with an animate spirit. Science put paid to all that, chased the spirits from their woods and pools, drove the fairies from their hills. Disenchanted the landscape. Well, maybe not. It depends on how you define enchantment.

Remember those spider webs I wrote about the other day, made visible by dew? Once the sun burned away the mist and the dew evaporated, the webs became invisible. But of course they are still there, a thousand silken snares, each with its resident spider. As I walked down the drive today I sensed their presence - the field alive with invisible spirits, a thousand arachnoid dryads crouching in their bowers.

The key to enchantment is to be aware of what can’t be seen. The spiders in their webs. The spinnerets extruding gossamer. The DNA zipping and unzipping in each cell of the spiders’ bodies, the amino acids, A and T, G and C, grasping hands in their dervish dance. The atoms in their resonant vibrations.

“What makes the desert beautiful is that somewhere it hides a well,” wrote Antoine De Saint-Exupery. The key to enchantment is to never stop thinking about the well.”

The Poet: William Stafford, ”Today”

”Today”

“The ordinary miracles begin. Somewhere
a signal arrives: “Now,” and the rays
come down. A tomorrow has come. Open
your hands, lift them: morning rings
all the doorbells; porches are cells for prayer.
Religion has touched your throat. Not the same now,
you could close your eyes and go on full of light.
And it is already begun, the chord
that will shiver glass, the song full of time
bending above us. Outside, a sign:
a bird intervenes; the wings tell the air,
“Be warm.” No one is out there, but a giant
has passed through town, widening streets, touching
the ground, shouldering away the stars.”

- William Stafford

The Daily "Near You?"

West Coxsackie, New York, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

Judge Napolitano, "INTEL Roundtable w/ Johnson & McGovern: Weekly Wrap"

Full screen recommended.
Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 6/14/24
"INTEL Roundtable w/Johnson & McGovern: Weekly Wrap"
Comments here:

"The Magician's Sheep

"The Magician's Sheep"
GI Gurdjieff

"There is an Eastern tale that speaks about a very rich magician who had a great many sheep. But at the same time this magician was very mean. He did not want to hire shepherds, nor did he want to erect a fence about the pasture where the sheep were grazing. The sheep consequently often wandered into the forest, fell into ravines and so on, and above all, they ran away, for they knew that the magician wanted their flesh and their skins, and this they did not like.

At last the magician found a remedy. He hypnotized his sheep and suggested to them, first of all, that they were immortal and that no harm was being done to them when they were skinned; that on the contrary, it would be very good for them and even pleasant; secondly he suggested that the magician was a good master who loved his flock so much that he was ready to do anything in the world for them; and in the third place, he suggested that if anything at all were going to happen to them, it was not going to happen just then, at any rate not that day, and therefore they had no need to think about it. Further, the magician suggested to his sheep that they were not sheep at all; to some of them he suggested that they were lions, to some that they were eagles, to some that they were men, to others that they were magicians. After this all his cares and worries about the sheep came to an end. They never ran away again, but quietly awaited the time when the magician would require their flesh and skins."

Free Download: Erich Maria Remarque, "All Quiet on the Western Front"

Ask her if it was worth it...
o
“You still think it's beautiful to die for your country. The first bombardment
taught us better. When it comes to dying for country, it's better not to die at all.”
- "Paul Baumer", "All Quiet on the Western Front" (1930)

Freely download “All Quiet on the Western Front”, by Erich Maria Remarque, here:
http://explainallquietonthewesternfront.weebly.com/
o

Dan, I Allegedly, "People Are Staying Home"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 6/14/24
"People Are Staying Home"
"People are not going to restaurants. People are not traveling. 
People are not buying anything. People are staying home."
Comments here:

Staying home, if they still have a home...

"How It Really Is"

 

Redacted, "America Is Building These Secret Facilities In All 50 States. Why?"

Full screen recommended.
Redacted, 6/13/24
"America Is Building These 
Secret Facilities In All 50 States. Why?"
"America is secretly building large scale detention facilities in all 50 states. Will they be used to house illegal immigrants? The answer is no and the real reason is far more nefarious. Former customs and border protection, supervisor JJ Carrelll shares this unbelievable story."
Comments here:

"The Federal Reserve's Inflation Confirmation Fallacy"

"The Federal Reserve's Inflation Confirmation Fallacy"
by David Stockman

"The reason for the dangerously high growth rates of Fed credit is what might be termed the inflation confirmation fallacy. That is to say, once high inflation broke out for the first time in peacetime history, flummoxed mainstream economists soon embraced the notion that the central bank should midwife a gentle, gradualist cure by "accommodating" some significant part of the rising price level, lest a too stingy growth of Fed credit would cause real interest rates to soar and bring the economy to its knees.

The effect of this unfortunate assumption was the introduction of inflation rate management into the Fed’s remit, tool kit and vocabulary. While the official 2% "goal" did not materialize until decades later, it did creep into practice on a de facto basis under Volcker and his successors. At length, the idea that the Fed was not simply managing bank reserves and credit, but was in charge of the performance of the entire GDP including the rate of increase in the general price level became deeply embedded in the institution.

To be sure, Paul Volcker was exceedingly cautious on the matter of accommodating the embedded inflation and bringing down the rate of price increase in a deliberate manner, but he was also a sound money man at bottom. He was willing to accommodate existing inflation to only a limited degree and was ready to risk a recessionary contraction if that was required to break the back of financial speculation and the extant spiral of wage/price/cost inflation that had become embedded during the 1970s.

In fact, that’s actually what did happen and the deep recession of 1981-1982 did accelerate the pace of disinflation. From the peak Y/Y rate of 14.6% in March 1980, the CPI increase slowed sharply to just 2.36% as of July 1983.

At that point, however, Volcker was reluctant to press the case back to old-fashioned notion of price stability, even as he was forced to cope with the Texas cowboy (i.e. James Baker) who had taken over the Treasury during Reagan’s second term. The latter forced through the abomination of the 1985 Plaza Accord, a globally "coordinated" and/or imposed maneuver to trash the strong dollar, thereby importing inflationary pressures back into the US economy.

In any event, the Y/Y inflation rate bottomed at 1.91% in February 1987 and that very month Howard Baker became chief of staff at the White House. From that point forward the two Bakers - James and Howard, who were both easy money inflationists - operated a de facto GOP (the Republican Party) regency in the Reagan White House. So doing, they were not about to have the independent Volcker getting in the way of Republican electoral success.

So Paul Volcker was out, and his successor, Alan Greenspan, soon faced the infamous 22.6% stock market collapse on October 19, 1987. Thereupon, the once and former gold standard advocate and Ayn Rand disciple opened up the spigots at the Fed’s money-pump, thereby initiating a new surge of inflationary pressure during the last years of the 1980s.

As is evident by the chart below, Volcker’s partial victory over inflation was short-circuited after mid-1983. In all, the price level rose by 71% or 3.3% per annum through the next stock-market meltdown, when the NASDAQ plunged by 33% during 30 trading days in March/April 2000.

Click image for larger size.

Greenspanian "Wealth Effects": This capitulation to permanent, residual inflation in the 2-4% zone was a huge historical mistake. It opened the way for Greenspanian "wealth effects" management and the resulting economic abominations. That is, a battered main street economy, which gave way to massive off-shoring of America’s industry, coupled with the relentless inflation of financial assets, which showered Wall Street and the 1% with hideous amounts of unearned windfall wealth.

The trigger for this untoward breakdown was Greenspan’s fundamental policy error. He invented the spurious argument that residual inflation at 2-3% was good enough, when the actual requirement was to purge the inflationary cost structure that was already embedded in the US economy owing to the inflation spree of the 1970s.

What resulted from the Greenspan pivot was nothing more than a great inflationary disaster which amounted to monetary central planning and pro-inflation targeting by the central bank. Suffice to remind why a huge share of America’s merchandise goods are now sourced in China and other parts of the global low-wage supply chain. To wit, the Fed simply inflated American workers out of their jobs via soaring unit labor costs, which became increasingly noncompetitive in global markets."

"Jefferson’s Warnings"

"Jefferson’s Warnings"
by Paul Rosenberg

"People remember Thomas Jefferson mainly for the Declaration of Independence, which he wrote in 1776. Some remember that he served as president from 1801 to 1809, but aside from that, few know much more of his life and work. In fact, he lived and worked until 1826, when he died on July 4th, fifty years to the day after the ratification of his Declaration. What’s lost to history is that Jefferson was convinced Americans were losing their fight for freedom.

Consolidation: In his last years, after a lifetime of learning and experience, Jefferson had one thing preeminently on his mind: the principle of decentralization. Jefferson didn’t use the words “centralization” or “decentralization,” of course. Rather, he used the common words of his time: consolidation and distribution. Obviously they meant the same things.

Here’s a direct statement on the subject, from his autobiography, written in 1821: "It is not by the consolidation, or concentration, of powers, but by their distribution, that good government is effected."

This statement put Jefferson at odds with political leaders, as he writes in a letter to Judge William Johnson in 1823: "I have been blamed for saying that a prevalence of the doctrines of consolidation would one day call for reformation or revolution."

The following passage is from a letter to Judge Johnson, written in 1822: "Finding that monarchy is a desperate wish in this country, they [successors to the Federalist Party] rally to the point which they think next best, a consolidated government. Their aim is now, therefore, to break down the rights reserved by the Constitution to the States as a bulwark against that consolidation, the fear of which produced the whole of the opposition to the Constitution at its birth."

Notice his primary points: Political parties were pursuing centralization, as was in their interest.The parties were trying to steal the power of the individual States and to centralize it in one city. Furthermore that they were degrading the Constitution to do so.

In a letter to William T. Barry in 1822, Jefferson refers to the Marbury v. Madison decision of 1803, a decision that American schoolchildren are taught to revere. Jefferson, however, considered it a disaster. He writes, "The foundations are already deeply laid by [the Supreme Court’s] decisions for the annihilation of constitutional State rights, and the removal of every check, every counterpoise to the engulfing power of which themselves are to make a sovereign part. If ever this vast country is brought under a single government, it will be one of the most extensive corruption, indifferent and incapable of a wholesome care over so wide a spread of surface."

The Marbury v. Madison decision was beyond all else astonishing, because it maintained that the man who wrote the Constitution, James Madison, didn’t understand it! More importantly, however, it granted the right to interpret the constitution to the Supreme Court, taking that right away from the states. The decision consolidated power in Washington.

It’s also central to this point that both Jefferson and Madison - the authors of the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution respectively - were so concerned over this that they wrote resolutions in 1798 (the Virginia and Kentucky Resolutions) to preserve the constitutional position of the states, which was being overridden by the Federalist party during the presidency of John Adams.

Here is one final passage from Jefferson, from a letter to William B. Giles in 1825, half a year before his death: "I see… with the deepest affliction, the rapid strides with which the federal branch of our government is advancing towards the usurpation of all the rights reserved to the States, and the consolidation in itself of all powers, foreign and domestic; and that too, by constructions which, if legitimate, leave no limits to their power."

The Man Was Right: Jefferson wasn’t right on every detail, of course, and the path to consolidation had some detours, but overall he was quite correct: Lincoln’s Civil War enslaved the states to the national government (nothing in the Constitution forbids secession) and the events of 1913 (the income tax, stripping the states of their power to appoint senators, and a central bank) brought the entire nation, from ocean to ocean, under the control of a single city. And so the United States became something like an empire, even though (thankfully) some decentralization remains.

The American nation wasn’t designed to be this way. Jefferson saw it coming and warned us."

Bill Bonner, "Megapolitics"

The Roman Forum
"Megapolitics"
But oversimplifying can cause big mistakes. ‘Enemies’ are 
not always real enemies. Wars are not always worth fighting. 
And stock market prices do not always go up.
by Bill Bonner

Paris, France - "Megapolitics attempts to extract major structural patterns that repeat throughout history. The factors leading to megapolitical change include topography, climate, microbes and technology. By taking into account how different factors influence human incentives, you can better identify the implications of change. This perspective allows you to perceive with greater clarity the rising and falling of governments, economies, cultures and violence." - Matthew Siu

“Megapolitics” is our not-so-secret weapon. It gives us an edge, we believe, by helping us understand the deeper currents of politics and economics. You could, for example, watch the weather. Day by day, it changes. One day is hotter. The next day it rains. You could guess about what will happen as the days go on. But it is very useful to know that there are seasons... patterns that repeat themselves... never exactly the same, but always, reliably present.

Megapolitics is really nothing more than an insight, but an important one: there are seasons in our markets and politics too. You may think, for example, that ‘the government would never allow that to happen’... or that it won’t happen because ‘no one wants that.’ But then... it happens anyway.

People - smart people especially - fool themselves. Regularly and consistently they over-rate their ability to understand what is going on...and their competence to control the future and take the kinks out of history. They undertake vast programs and projects to make the world a better place - the Crusades, WWI, the Russian Revolution, the Great Leap Forward -and end up making history kinkier than ever.

The problem arises from the nature of life itself. It is, as Wallace Stevens put it, ‘an old chaos about the sun.’ There are an infinite number of things going on... and an infinite number of ways to look at them. We humans, however, do not have an infinite amount of time or an infinite brain capacity. So, we put things into categories (a process that Kant described as the ‘categorical imperative’) in order to simplify them.

Danger: Proto-humans had to make quick decisions in order to survive. If they saw a big, hairy thing charging in their direction, for example, they didn’t have time to wonder about what genus or species the thing might be... or if it was not some optical illusion caused by the setting sun... or a practical joke played on us by one of our own tribe members. They had to run... as fast as possible... to survive. Our ancestors, the survivors, were those who ran... not those who wondered for too long.

Today, we receive thousands of ‘messages’ - advertising, notices, data, opinions, and observations. We go through them on our computer screens... as quickly as possible... picking out those that are worth our attention. Most are disregarded immediately. Some are noticed... and studied carefully. A few actually change our ideas or behavior. Most people are busy; they sort things into very simple categories - good or bad; red or blue, friend or foe. Enemies are ‘bad’ people; that’s all you need to know.

The world of finance too can be reduced to the simplest dichotomy. Prices are either going up or down; why complicate it? But oversimplifying can cause big mistakes. ‘Enemies’ are not always real enemies. Wars are not always worth fighting. And stock market prices do not always go up. For a hint about what is really going on, we need to understand the seasons. We can look out the window and see the sun peeking through the clouds... but it also helps to know that it is springtime.

Natural Patterns: In the most simplistic, superficial sense, people make their choices and try to get what they want. But in the deeper, mega-political world, what they want has nothing to do with it. Megapolitics describes the profound currents of history... like the Gulf Stream... an immense underwater river. On the surface, it is not even visible. But underneath the waves, it carries warm water across the Atlantic and makes Northern Europe habitable. It is a natural pattern. It influences us; we have no influence over it.

Megapolitics recognizes that ‘stuff happens’ whether you want it to or not. Who wants to die, for example? But everyone does. And who can imagine that the US empire will be brought to its knees? But that will happen too.

Megapolitics encourages us to look beyond the slogans and platitudes we take for granted. The Titanic was considered unsinkable... until it sank. And now, many people think the Fed ‘wouldn’t allow’ a major recession, runaway inflation, or long-lasting bear market. But can the Fed really prevent these natural corrections? Probably not.

At another level, we believe that ‘all men are created equal,’ for example... and that we should ‘do unto others as we would have them do unto us.’ But when power shifts dramatically, equal rights vanish. Imagine an invasion by a race of aliens with vastly superior technology. They might treat humans like we treat cattle... or snakes. Even among humans, huge disparities in power lead to relationships that are in no way ‘equal.’ That was the underlying story of the 18th and 19th centuries, when Europeans had such a big advantage in firepower over the indigenous peoples of Africa, Southeast Asia, Australia and the Americas that they were able to colonize huge expanses of territory. The locals may have had ‘rights,’ but only those the conquerors chose to give them.

Megapolitics exposes the patterns and realities that few people want to think about. It makes us suspicious about ‘what everybody knows’ and skeptical about ‘what everybody believes.’ Does the war in the Ukraine really make any sense? Can the Fed really know what interest rates America needs? Does US democracy really work the way the voters believe? We have more questions than answers. But merely asking them gives us an advantage over most people.

Questions: How, when, why does a great empire die? The US/Anglo/Western empire seemed to peak out around 1999. Since then, despite record highs in nominal terms, US stocks and bonds have lost ground in real terms - measured in gold. This has happened against a background of soaring debt - from $5 trillion to $35 trillion of government debt alone - which was supposed to ‘stimulate’ growth.

And what is going on in the markets? In addition to the trends of days, weeks, and months, there are “Primary” trends that can take decades to play out. It appears that a major turning point was reached between the summer of 2020, when US bond yields bottomed out, and the end of 2021, when US stocks hit all-time highs. Where to now? Checking with CNN or Bloomberg won’t tell us. Maybe the Primary Trend patterns will.

And what about inflation and debt cycles? What’s in store for a country that has nearly four times as much debt as GDP? And what’s ahead for a democracy in which most voters want neither candidate and the most important issues are decided by big money influencers?

Few people will want to go too deeply into these questions. Good guys versus bad guys, us versus them, red versus blue - that’s enough for most of us. But in the difficult years ahead, shallow analysis could prove disastrous. Stay tuned."