"Too OId to 'Get It'”?

"Too OId to 'Get It'”?

by Bill Bonner

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – "Wow… Last week was exciting! But first, a more personal report. Last weekend, we went up to Dublin to see, for the first time, our new grandson You’re not supposed to be doing “non essential” travel in Ireland right now. But we also had a doctor’s appointment in the city, so the trip was A-OK with everyone.

When we first came to Ireland, more than 20 years ago, it took three or four hours to drive from Waterford to Dublin. Tiny roads snaked along the coast and through the many towns and villages. But then, the “Celtic Tiger” – a period of rapid real economic growth – roared in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Almost the entire housing stock was upgraded. And sleek new highways were added. Now, the drive takes only two hours, over a pleasant auto-route with very little traffic.

Sleek and Modern: Dublin itself has retained much of its grittiness. But many parts of the city have been tarted up… Some – the Dublin Docklands, for example, nicknamed “Silicon Docks,” due to the arrival of so many leading technology companies, such as Google and Facebook – are as cool and modern as any in the world.

Our son and his wife live in an attractive residential area. The houses are modest, but charming… red brick, with small yards in front… and many nearby parks – all of them ebullient with flowers in this spring season. Ireland seems especially propitious for flowers of all sorts. It rains. Then, the sun comes out. And then, it rains again. And never does it get so hot – as it does in Maryland in the summertime – that all living things seek shelter and mercy.

“It reminds me of Nova Scotia,” says Elizabeth, our wife, whose grandparents lived there. We would go to visit every summer… packing the whole family in our Chevy van… and later (after the family had grown), using two vehicles. Baltimore is almost unbearable in July. Whole weeks go by with the temperature over 90 degrees. Plants go into shock. Some dry up. People hide away in their air-conditioned houses. The sun beats down like a Biblical curse.

We would try to choose the hottest months to make our annual getaway… driving up the I-95 to New Brunswick, where we’d take the ferry across the Bay of Fundy to Nova Scotia. Arriving in Annapolis Royal, we’d enter a gas station. There would usually be a pair of locals leaning over the counter, discussing the weather.

“When do you think this heat wave will end?” “I don’t know… But I hope it is soon. I can barely stand it.” “Yep… S’posed to get up into the upper 70s again today. But it will pass.” And so it always did. And we were soon in our cabin, gloriously huddled around an open fire.

New Grandson: But enough reminiscing… Our new grandson is only two weeks old. And as you can imagine, he is already in the 90th percentile, along with all grandchildren. “He looks like your father,” said one of the parents. “No… He looks more like my mother,” said the other. “I think he looks like somebody… but I can’t place him…” To us, he looked like every baby we’ve ever seen… mushy and adorable, of course.

Remarkable Week: But let’s look back at the remarkable week just past. It was last week when the long-expected inflation bus finally rolled into town. The Bureau of Labor Statistics – acting like a traffic cop with a faulty speed gun – reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was way over the limit… traveling at the fastest rate in 40 years… That news triggered a brief stock market sell-off… with investors afraid that the Federal Reserve would have to hike interest rates in order to prevent runaway inflation.

Upon closer inspection, housing and some producer prices were found to be hitting double-digit speeds. But by then, the Fed, the media, and the usual sell-side economists were out in force, explaining why the inflation numbers were nothing to worry about. There was no inflation. “We are coming off an extremely low base… from the bottom of the COVID-19 panic,” they said. “Besides, a little inflation is a good thing,” they continued. It “signals a robust recovery”… and it “helps to make up for years of sub-optimal inflation readings.” Together, the two defense arguments were a little like the lawyer who claimed his client never met the girl… “Besides, how was he to know she was underage?”

The second argument undermined the first. But it hardly matters. Birds gotta fly. Fish gotta swim. And the feds gotta inflate. It’s inflate or die. And sooner or later, the inflation’s gotta show up in consumer prices.

Nuttiest of All: And Elon Musk… God bless him… God help him… Dogecoin went down 30% after Musk – the erstwhile self-proclaimed “Dogefather” – called the crypto coin a “hustle” on nationwide TV. Then, bitcoin fell after Elon said Tesla would no longer take it in payment… until it figured out a way to mine new coins without using so much electricity.

Customers turning away from The Doge and bitcoin had to go somewhere… Some must have gone to SHIB… another dodgy doggy coin – a spoof on a spoof. It went up 1,700% in a week… prompting Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin to “burn” 410 trillion of the coins. All of this proves, at least to our satisfaction, that trying to invest in cryptos is like relying on the “greater fool theory” when you are playing poker in an insane asylum. They’re all nuts. And you might be the nuttiest of all.

More Musk Mischief: But wait… the week wasn’t over. And Elon wasn’t finished working his mischief. He later tweeted the Doge back to life – “Do you want Tesla to accept doge?” Musk asked his fans – and then hinted that Tesla might sell its pile of 38,300 bitcoin. The Doge went up almost 50%… and bitcoin went down even further… for a loss of about 30%. Musk added that if The Doge can’t “scale,” he might start his own cryptocurrency.

There are already some 7,800 of these crypto coins. Of course, there were plenty of cars, too, before Elon developed the Tesla. And Mr. Musk was probably encouraged by a recent launch. Earlier this month, the “Internet Computer” – a new crypto, with perhaps the snazziest name in the whole cryptosphere – came out. Within 24 hours, it had a market value of $45 billion (currently about $25 billion).

Out of It: And so… whether we look at the private sector or the public sector… at cryptos or at federal deficits (already headed for an 8-month record over $2 trillion)… at Elon, or at Janet, Joe, or Jerome…well, everyone is nuts. Or else we’re just too “out of it” to appreciate what is going on.

Maybe this is just one of those times in history when you have to be young… or brain damaged… to understand it. No one over 50 can be trusted to “get it.” But we’re not sure if that “50” refers to age or I.Q."

- www.rogueeconomics.com

"A Primer For The Propagandized: Fear Is The Mind-Killer"

"A Primer For The Propagandized: 

Fear Is The Mind-Killer"

by Margaret Anna Alice 

“Totalitarianism, if not fought against, could triumph anywhere.”

- George Orwell

"The noose is dangling gently around our necks. Every day, they cinch it tighter. By the time we realize it’s strangling us, it will be too late. Those who – gradually and gleefully – sacrifice their freedoms, their autonomy, their individuality, their livelihoods, and their relationships on the altar of the “common good” have forgotten this is the pattern followed by every totalitarian regime in history.

Everyone wonders how ordinary Germans could have been manipulated to participate or stand dumbstruck while their government was transformed into a genocidal juggernaut. This is how. Read Sebastian Haffner’s "Defying Hitler" memoir to see how this can happen anywhere - including here.

Everyone wonders how Russians could have permitted and even zealously reported fellow citizens for imprisonment and execution under "Article 58", the penal code invented to incarcerate anyone who dared express the slightest whisper of noncompliance under Stalin’s homicidal state. This is how. Read Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn’s meticulously documented "The Gulag Archipelago" to witness this progression of authoritarian lunacy.

Everyone wonders how Hutus could have suddenly started axing their Tutsi neighbors to death after being inundated with waves of anti-Tutsi propaganda from "Radio Télévision Libre des Mille Collines." Read Philip Gourevitch’s "We Wish to Inform You That Tomorrow We Will Be Killed with Our Families: Stories from Rwanda."

The list goes on. And on. And on. From Machiavelli’s "The Prince" to Étienne de la Boetie’s "The Politics of Obedience: The Discourse of Voluntary Servitude" to Edward Herman’s and Noam Chomsky’s "Manufacturing Consent" (and accompanying documentary) to BBC’s "The Century of the Self," mechanisms of mass control have been chronicled for millennia.

George Orwell wrote, "As far as the mass of the people go, the extraordinary swings of opinion which occur nowadays, the emotions which can be turned on and off like a tap, are the result of newspaper and radio hypnosis.”

Can you imagine what master propagandist Edward Bernays would have done with access to today’s mainstream media conglomerate combined with the global surveillance infrastructure of Big Tech? And you really think that’s not happening now - with another century of psychological, neurological, and technological research under their belts?

The present ability to curate reality and coerce obedience is unprecedented, far beyond what Orwell envisioned in "1984", Bradbury in "Fahrenheit 451", Huxley in "Brave New World," and Burgess in "A Clockwork Orange."

A textbook example of "Problem Reaction Solution", the current tsunami of worldwide hysteria is the latest and potentially most threatening example of mass control in history.

The recipe is simple. Take a naturally occurring phenomenon, say a seasonal virus, and exaggerate its threat far beyond every imagining - despite exhaustive evidence to the contrary. Suppress, silence, ostracize, and demonize every individual who dares present facts that expose the false mono-narrative.

Whip up a witches’ brew of anger, envy, and, most importantly, fear, escalating emotions to a boil so as to short-circuit our faculties of reason and logic.

Isolate us from one another, supplant real-world interactions with virtual feuds, label nonconformists as a threat to the group, and pump the public with a disinformation campaign designed to confuse and atomize. In essence, foster a cultlike mentality that shuts down thought to guarantee assent.

Cultivate and wield our cognitive biases - especially ingroup bias, conformity bias, and authority bias - against us in a comprehensive divide-and-conquer policy that keeps us too busy squabbling amongst each other to recognize and unite against those corralling us into a Matrix-like collective delusion that enables the powerful to extract our resources for their own gain.

This ideological mass psychosis is religion - not science. If this were about science, the Media–Pharmaceutical–Big-Tech complex would not be memory-holing every dissenting voice, vilifying every thought criminal, and censoring every legitimate inquiry in quest of the truth.

Mark Twain said, “It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.” He also said: “In religion and politics people’s beliefs and convictions are in almost every case gotten at second-hand, and without examination, from authorities who have not themselves examined the questions at issue but have taken them at second-hand from other non-examiners, whose opinions about them were not worth a brass farthing.”

The next time you’re watching the news, reading a social media post, listening to a friend repeat a scripted talking point, pay attention. Learn to identify the earmarks of propaganda, the clickbait used to trigger your emotions, the mechanisms employed to engineer your cognitive biases.

Don’t let your pride prevent you from seeing - and admitting - the Emperor is naked. We are losing our last sliver of opportunity to resist authoritarianism. This is not a partisan issue. Those who wish to control us have made it such because disunited lemmings are easier to steer than independent, critical thinkers.

This is a human issue. This is about crushing the middle class - the backbone of a democratic republic - and transferring trillions from the middle and lower classes to the ruling plutocracy. This is about demolishing the foundations of a free society and building it back - not better, but better-controlled.

I will close by recommending a series of illuminating videos on menticide (“the systematic effort to undermine and destroy a person’s values and beliefs … to induce radically different ideas”) throughout history by "Academy of Ideas." This analysis of mass psychosis is nonpartisan and of value to every thinking human being.

• "Is a Mass Psychosis the Greatest Threat to Humanity?"

• "The Mass Psychosis and the Demons of Dostoevsky"

• "The Manufacturing of a Mass Psychosis – Can Sanity Return to an Insane World?
"

"Dare to question. Dare to disbelieve. 

Dare to defy ideology in favor of science while you still can."

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

○

“The FED Is Playing With Fire - Don’t Get Burned; Sell Your Home Now; Market Reckoning"

Jeremiah Babe,

“The FED Is Playing With Fire - Don’t Get Burned; 

Sell Your Home Now; Market Reckoning"

Gregory Mannarino, “Markets, A Look Ahead, 5/16/21”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ts3LvrEizTk

Gregory Mannarino,

“Markets, A Look Ahead, 5/16/21”

- https://traderschoice.net/

Musical Interlude: Elton John, "Your Starter For"; "Funeral for a Friend/Love Lies Bleeding"

Elton John,

"Your Starter For";

"Funeral for a Friend/Love Lies Bleeding"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“What will become of these galaxies? Spiral galaxies NGC 5426 and NGC 5427 are passing dangerously close to each other, but each is likely to survive this collision. Typically when galaxies collide, a large galaxy eats a much smaller galaxy. In this case, however, the two galaxies are quite similar, each being a sprawling spiral with expansive arms and a compact core. As the galaxies advance over the next tens of millions of years, their component stars are unlikely to collide, although new stars will form in the bunching of gas caused by gravitational tides.

Close inspection of the above image taken by the 8-meter Gemini-South Telescope in Chile shows a bridge of material momentarily connecting the two giants. Known collectively as Arp 271, the interacting pair spans about 130,000 light years and lies about 90 million light-years away toward the constellation of Virgo. Recent predictions hold that our Milky Way Galaxy will undergo a similar collision with the neighboring Andromeda Galaxy in a few billion years.”

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130825.html

"Regret..."

"Regret for the things we did can be tempered by time;

it is regret for the things we did not do that is inconsolable."

~ Sydney J. Harris

"It's What It Is..."

"Life is not what it's supposed to be. It's what it is.

The way you cope with it is what makes the difference."

- Virginia Satir

The Daily "Near You?"

High Springs, Florida, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"The Life Of Man..."

"The life of Man is a long march through the night, surrounded by invisible foes, tortured by weariness and pain, towards a goal that few can hope to reach, and where none may tarry long. One by one, as they march, our comrades vanish from our sight, seized by the silent orders of omnipotent Death. Very brief is the time in which we can help them, in which their happiness or misery is decided. Be it ours to shed sunshine on their path, to lighten their sorrows by the balm of sympathy, to give them the pure joy of a never-tiring affection, to strengthen failing courage, to instill faith in times of despair."

- Bertrand Russell

"Crabs in a Bucket"

"Crabs in a Bucket"

by Sarah Robinson

"When I was a little girl, I lived very close (an hour and fifteen minutes) to the Florida panhandle beaches. Which meant we spent a TON of time there. Early evening was one of my favorite times to walk the beach with my mom and my older brothers. We were all clean and fed and slightly sun weary but still desperate to be outside. So, we would grab flashlights, dip nets and a bucket and search the ocean’s edge for crabs. We would catch a bucket full in an evening and drag them back home where my mom or my grandmother would cook them up into something delicious. (Yes, I was traumatized by the crabs being put into boiling water, but that story is for another day.)

The problem was that as we made that long walk home carrying crabs, there were always one or two who figured out how to climb up to the edge of the bucket in an attempt to escape. Every now and then we would have to tap the edge of the bucket to knock them back down. Because I was too little to carry the bucket very far, I got the job of watching for potential escapees. And I noticed something... well… odd. More often than not, as a crab would begin to inch its way higher to the edge of the bucket, the other crabs would latch on to him and pull him back down. I watched this scenario play out again and again, year after year.

Fast forward to this morning. As I was drinking my coffee and perusing my twitter stream, and up pops this gem from @paulocoelho (He wrote "The Alchemist", one of my all time favorite books): “Only mediocrity is safe. Get ready to be attacked, and be the best.” Maybe it was the early hour. Maybe it was my post-event mushy brain. I don’t know. But the minute I read Paulo’s tweet, I thought of those crabs in a bucket. So I sent him this tweet: “I’m thinking of crabs in a bucket. They always try to pull down the one who’s figured out how to escape.”

Paulo liked my analogy so much that he retweeted it and I’ve spent my morning connecting with people all over the world who liked it, too. It resonated deeply for a lot of people. I did a quick Google search and discovered that “Crab Mentality” is actually an official phrase that roughly means “if I can’t have it, neither can you.” And it is talked about. A lot.

There will always be people who will subtly or not so subtly try to keep us from escaping. Why? Because our escape threatens their mediocre existence. Pulling us down, sabotaging our efforts, picking apart our brilliant ideas – all of that keeps them feeling safe. And living undisturbed mediocre lives.

So what if we added a new piece to the crab mentality picture? Imagine a crab, or a group of crabs on the other side of the bucket building a ladder to aid your escape. They managed to crawl out of the bucket in spite of all the energetic attempts to pull them backwards. Because they’ve tasted freedom and they know your struggle, they are putting energy into aiding and abetting your escape.

I believe that for those of us determined to get out of the bucket, such a group exists. It may take some time to find them, but they are there, ready to throw a safety rope over the edge and pull us out. Start listening for them. Start looking for them. They are there. Reach just a little further and they’ll meet you at the edge of the bucket."

- http://www.escaping-mediocrity.com/

- http://paulocoelhoblog.com/

'I Am Always Tempted..."

"You've seed how things goes in the world o' men. You've knowed men to be low-down and mean. You've seed ol' Death at his tricks... Ever' man wants life to be a fine thing, and a easy. 'Tis fine, boy, powerful fine, but 'tain't easy. Life knocks a man down and he gits up and it knocks him down agin. I've been uneasy all my life... I've wanted life to be easy for you. Easier'n 'twas for me. A man's heart aches, seein' his young uns face the world. Knowin' they got to get their guts tore out, the way his was tore. I wanted to spare you, long as I could. I wanted you to frolic with your yearlin'. I knowed the lonesomeness he eased for you. But ever' man's lonesome. What's he to do then? What's he to do when he gits knocked down? Why, take it for his share and go on.”

- Marjorie Kinnan Rawlings

"When I hear somebody sigh, 'Life is hard,' 

I am always tempted to ask, 'Compared to what?'"

- Sydney J. Harris

Musical Interlude: The Rolling Stones, "Sympathy For The Devil"

Full screen!

The Rolling Stones, "Sympathy For The Devil"

"How It Really Is"

 

"Rising Inflation and Bill’s Doom Index"

"Rising Inflation and Bill’s Doom Index"

by Bill Bonner

OUGHAL, IRELAND – "Oh my… look up. There it is. Our old, tattered Black & Blue… Our trusty “Crash Alert” flag, proudly signaling the alarm. Yesterday, we saw consumer prices moving up. And we saw how the supply of “money” is far outstripping the supply of goods and services you buy with it. So far this century, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet (a rough way of keeping track of the supply of dollars) rose 15 times. U.S. GDP (an equally approximate measure of output) only doubled. That is the classic definition of inflation.

Today, we’re going to look at what kind of inflation it is… and how long it will be with us. Is it “transitory,” caused by a booming recovery and trillions in stimmy money. Or has it come with big suitcases and its favorite pillow… as if it intends to stay? We’ll come back to those questions. But first… the big news…

Crash Alert! Our Doom Index is registering an 8 – which is Crash Alert territory. We created the Doom Index a number of years ago to improve on our (often faulty) intuition. It tracks 12 key indicators to try to detect when there are dangerous excesses in the economy and markets are out of whack. Yes, you can see the full report on the latest Doom Index Reading here. But here’s the short version from our ace research team:

The chart below shows our Doom Index levels by quarter. The red bars indicate a reading of 8 or higher. That’s when we raise our “crash alert” flag and tell investors it’s time to prepare for a market crash. The last time we raised our “crash alert” flag was at the end of Q2 2019, when the Doom Index hit 8. We stayed in the “Danger Zone” for the next four quarters.

Economic conditions improved slightly in the second half of 2020, as evidenced by our Doom Index reading dropping to 7 for Q3 2020 and Q4 2020… Our recent Doom Index reading – based on the Q1 2021 data – is 8… which means we’re raising our tattered “crash alert” flag.

[…]it appears that the stock market is getting way ahead of the economy… Nearly all stock market valuations are at all-time highs, investors are using more leverage, junk bonds are looking riskier, and of course… the feds keep printing.

More Inflation Sightings: Meanwhile, we looked at some of the inflation sightings yesterday. Here’s The Wall Street Journal with more: "Americans accustomed to years of low inflation are beginning to pay sharply higher prices for goods and services as the economy strains to rev back up and the pandemic wanes. Price tags on consumer goods from processed meat to dishwashing products have risen by double-digit percentages from a year ago, according to NielsenIQ. Whirlpool Corp. freezers and dishwashers and Scotts Miracle-Gro Co. lawn and garden products are also getting costlier, the companies say. Some consumers are feeling stretched."

No Big Deal: But don’t worry. Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve and Janet Yellen at the U.S. Treasury both assure us that inflation is no big deal. The Fed is still “printing” $120 billion per month… trying to overcome the “low inflation” threat. According to Powell, the nation’s economic health is threatened not by inflation, but by the lack of it… that is, by persistent Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings below 2%. He thinks stable prices somehow inhibit growth.

As for Yellen, she believes the feds can hit whatever pitch comes their way. Here’s what she confidently told a Wall Street Journal CEO Council event last week: "I don’t think there’s going to be an inflationary problem. But if there is, the Fed will be counted on to address them." That settles it for us. Nothing to be concerned about. There is no inflation. And if there were any, just as a hypothetical, the Fed would smash it out of the ballpark. And Ms. Yellen should know. She used to run the Fed.

Intellectual Exercise: But… just in case – not that we’re doubting Ms. Yellen… or second-guessing the Fed – but just as an intellectual exercise, for our amusement… what if they’re all not really up to playing in the Major Leagues? What if they are better suited to the Special Olympics?

Before last Friday’s jobs report came out, Ms. Yellen suggested that interest rates might have to go up to contain rising price inflation, caused by a robust recovery. That is, she said she was concerned about “overheating,” whatever that is. Then, after stocks began to fall, she backtracked, letting the speculators know that she didn’t really mean it. In the space of less than 24 hours, she determined that the economy’s temperature was just right after all. She must have breathed a sigh of relief on Friday. The employment numbers made it clear that the economy is not heating up; it’s cooling off.

Phew! This takes the pressure off Yellen and Powell to “address” the inflation issue. But only by misunderstanding the nature of the inflation – which both Ms. Yellen and Mr. Powell are eager to do. More like “Marvelous” Marv Throneberry than “Boog” Powell, both want to win the game… but neither has any idea how to play it. They believe that inflation is purely cyclical, caused by rising demand in an expanding economy. (They also believe they can cause the economy to expand by pretending, that is, by inflating the money supply to look like real demand is increasing.)

Double Act: But this is no natural cyclical inflation. It is systemic. It is not driven (or, at least, not entirely) by the business cycle. Instead, it is man-made… caused by the two illustrious strike-outs themselves – Yellen weighing down heavily on the White House’s fiscal bench… and Powell heading up the Fed’s monetary team. The fiscal team spends. The monetary team prints. And they’ll both keep at it until the final inning… when the game is lost."

- https://www.rogueeconomics.com/

"Americans Are Panic Buying Homes! Prices Are Soaring: Prepare Your Self For A Housing Market Crash!"

Full screen recommended.

"Americans Are Panic Buying Homes! 

Prices Are Soaring: Prepare Your Self For A Housing Market Crash!"

by Epic Economist

"Americans are in a wild panic buying frenzy for homes despite skyrocketing prices, which has been worrying experts that the fast growth of the housing price bubble and historically low inventory levels might lead the market to a sharp correction way sooner than expected. Panicked buyers are taking part in bidding wars and offering hundreds of thousands of dollars above the asking price, but on the flip side, a large chunk of the population is getting priced out of the market and affordable housing is nowhere to be found. House prices are soaring like never before even as the economy is still facing the worst slump since the Great Depression.

As we previously discussed, the frantic rally is being fueled by low-interest rates, which is keeping mortgage payments more affordable, cushioning the housing market from the current recession. But it wasn't that long ago that real estate experts were expecting the worst. At the beginning of the health crisis, everyone was predicting home prices would collapse given that this is what typically happens when economic downturns occur. But due to the extraordinary monetary response to the sanitary outbreak, markets have been artificially sustained and asset valuations were turbocharged. However, the current pace of home price appreciation is getting increasingly unsustainable, and mortgage rates are moving upward as inflation fears have started to mount, meaning that the current housing boom is headed to a bust.

Real estate analysts have been reporting this to be the most competitive market they have ever seen. According to the National Association of Realtors, the number of sales of existing homes reached the highest level since 2006 - with the US housing inventory dwindling by over 50 percent, while prices rose 9% from pre-outbreak levels, and the median price of an existing home hitting a record high of $329,100 in March. In one alarming example of how crazy the market has become, in a CNN article, realtor Ellen Coleman reported having received "76 all-cash offers on a $275,000 fixer-upper in suburban Washington D.C. within three days of listing the property. The four-bedroom, 1,800 square-foot home sold for $460,000, a 70% increase on the asking price".

Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather, "we are in a record-breaking housing market with asking prices at an all-time high, median sale prices at an all-time high, the share of homes selling over list price at an all-time high, and homes selling faster than ever before: 58% under contract within two weeks of listing and 46% within one week of listing". "Ask just about any real estate agent, and they'll tell you they've never seen a market this hot," he said. Another example of how the panic buying trend has been pushing prices through the roof can be seen in Southern California, where extreme prices are being reported in all corners of the region. For instance, in Orange County, with the highest spike on record, having registered a 38.5% increase in sales leading the median price of a home up by 10.6% to shocking $835,000.

Vanessa Stone, an Enfield real estate broker said that in the 32 years she’s been selling real estate "the current frenzy surpasses even the hot home-selling market of the early 2000s before the crash of 2007". How much longer such extravagant gains will continue is a question worrying both buyers and sellers. Americans are already sensing something is wrong in the market and recent date shows how home-buying sentiment has collapsed to its weakest since 1983. Although bubble deniers have been multiplying lately, realtors are frequently comparing the current market rally to what they have witnessed during the peak of the 2006 historic real-estate bubble.

But just because the market looks different on a macro level, doesn't mean this time will be different, as many want to believe. As we well know, blind believers frequently end up very, very frustrated when they choose to ignore the warning signs that are flashing right into their faces. And if you don't want to get caught off guard, don't take the opinion of those who make their living by selling the idea of a rose-colored reality as the gospel. The next housing market crash is fast approaching and all evidence is there for you to see. So beware of those weirdly upbeat forecasts or you might end up bitterly disappointed."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com

"We Are Watching A Giant Illusion; IRS Coming For You; Where Are The Good Times? Economy Worsens”

Jeremiah Babe,

“We Are Watching A Giant Illusion; IRS Coming For You; 

Where Are The Good Times? Economy Worsens”

Musical Interlude: Moody Blues, "You and Me"

Full screen!

Moody Blues, "You and Me"

"Riding the Lightning, and Living to Tell the Tale"

Well, I owe you an apology for not alerting you to my sudden and quite unexpected absence but there was simply no time to react to a medical emergency which very nearly took me out of this world. EMTs got me to the ER with no time to spare. 2 unspeakably horrifying jolts of cardioversion - "If they hadn't shocked you when they did you'd be dead." - and a Medevac ride to Tucson for 5 days in the superlatively excellent Banner Medical Center Tucson's Cardiac ICU has produced wonderful results, so now home. Slow and easy from now on, my friends, posting may be diminished briefly while I continue getting myself together, so please bear with me. I'm just grateful to be alive, and expect  to be up to speed quickly. I hope you're all well and savoring this day, because tomorrow isn't guaranteed for any of us. Make this a good day!

- CP

"Commercial Real Estate Collapse Triggering 45% Drop In Property Value As Businesses Face Foreclosure"

Full screen recommended.

"Commercial Real Estate Collapse Triggering 45%

 Drop In Property Value As Businesses Face Foreclosure"

by Epic Economist

"While the entire country is on a countdown to the end of the health crisis, the retail industry should brace itself because a huge wave of closures is coming. Analysts from stockbroking firm UBS are warning that "at least tens of thousands" of store closures will occur as a result of the permanent shift in consumer behavior and the rise of e-commerce, whereas a new study conducted by Morgan Stanley experts found that 1 out of 3 shopping malls will soon disappear from the U.S. economic landscape. The decay of struggling U.S. malls has been years in the making. Industry analysts have been speculating for years what would be the ultimate catalyst to trigger malls' undoing - and after the sanitary outbreak hit, they had their answer. It seems like hundreds of commercial properties have reached the point of no return across the U.S., and that's mainly attributed to the fact that the strict social distancing restrictions forced consumers to learn to buy the things they like, want, and need using online platforms. In face of endless possibilities and increased convenience offered by the virtual experience, it's very unlikely customers ever resume their previous spending patterns in physical stores.

Already, 18 major retailers filed for bankruptcy, mostly concentrated in apparel and footwear, home furnishings, grocery, and department stores, according to Green Street reports. Some of these businesses spent over 100 years building their brands into household names, but in 10 short years, a retail apocalypse swept across the industry and left stores empty while malls started to lose relevance. The decay of the sector, like so much in the last decade, can be traced back to the last financial crisis. After the housing bubble burst, several retailers struggled to make it through the Great Recession. Hundreds of thousands of employees were laid off and private equity firms intervened, but in that process, they burdened mall brands with massive amounts of debt. Even companies that managed to stay afloat during the current recession, have been announcing mass store closures hoping to curb their expenses.

Consequently, such closures are having a huge impact on mall occupancy rates and recent numbers are already showing it. In the first quarter of 2021, regional malls in the United States registered the highest vacancy rate in history at 11.4%. The outlook for the sector remains bleak as many more closures are expected. In a report released in April, UBS predicted that in the best-case scenario roughly 80,000 retail stores would close all across the nation in the next few years, affecting nearly 9% of all retail stores, which means one in eleven stores in the United States is on the verge of disappearing forever. In the worst-case scenario is that twice that number of stores could be shut down, accounting for as many as 150,000 closures.

In face of this gloomy forecast, and considering it would be incredibly difficult to fill in all that vacant retail space during one of the worst economic recessions this country has ever experienced, according to a team of Morgan Stanley analysts, 30 to 35 percent of U.S. malls are likely to close for good over the next few months. In other words, 1 out of 3 shopping malls may go extinct even before the economy reopens. Until two years ago, Green Street Advisors still expected them to disappear by 2030, but after last year's events, that forecast got remarkably adjusted: now they anticipate the malls will fade out before the end of this year.

Investors are now having to assess if the best move is to reoccupy the vacant space or cut out the distressed property from their portfolios entirely. Remaining a viable option for investment in a market that is becoming increasingly distressed will certainly not be easy. Already, some of these property owners have taken some desperate measures to keep doors open. As a sign of the times, while vaccines roll out across the country, thousands of people are getting vaccinated in abandoned Kmarts, Sears, and Toys R Us, instead of CVS pharmacies or local health clinics.

For mall owners that have seen store vacancy rates skyrocket over the past twelve months, the symbolism of having deserted stores transformed into mass vaccination clinics underscores how rapidly our economy has changed after the health crisis began, and how the retail apocalypse is turning our once-thriving economic landscape in a dystopian scenario. And even though the end of the outbreak might be in sight as the distribution of the vaccine ramps up, for decaying malls, it seems that this "new normal" means that the new dystopian reality is here to stay."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com​