Thursday, November 19, 2020

The Poet: Robinson Jeffers, "Love That, Not Man Apart From That"

"Love That, Not Man Apart From That"

"Then what is the answer? Not to be deluded by dreams.
To know that great civilizations have broken down into violence,
and their tyrants come, many times before.
When open violence appears, to avoid it with honor or choose
the least ugly faction; these evils are essential.
To keep one’s own integrity, be merciful and uncorrupted
and not wish for evil; and not be duped
By dreams of universal justice or happiness.
These dreams will not be fulfilled.
To know this, and know that however ugly the parts appear
the whole remains beautiful. A severed hand
Is an ugly thing and man dissevered from the earth and stars
and his history... for contemplation or in fact...
Often appears atrociously ugly.
Integrity is wholeness, the greatest beauty is
Organic wholeness, the wholeness of life and things,
the divine beauty of the universe.
Love that, not man apart from that,
or else you will share man’s pitiful confusions,
or drown in despair when his days darken."

- Robinson Jeffers

"If You Live On This Land..."

"If you live on this land, and you have ancestors sleeping in this land,
I believe that makes you a native to this land.
It has nothing to do with the color of your skin.
I was not raised to look at people racially.
What I was taught is that we're flowers in the Great Spirit's garden.
We share a common root, and the root is Mother Earth."

- Oh Shinnah Fastwolf, Shishindi Nation (Apache)

"Sometimes..."

 

The Daily "Near You?"

 
Tillsonburg, Ontario, Canada. Thanks for stopping by!

"The Chief Obstacle..."

"The chief obstacle to the progress of the human race is the human race."
- Don Marquis

"In the mass of mankind, I fear, there is too great a majority of fools and knaves,
who, singly from their number, must to a certain degree be respected, 
though they are by no means respectable."
- Philip Stanhope

"Back to the Usual Grift"

"Back to the Usual Grift"
by Bill Bonner

"Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, 
and I care not who makes its laws!"
– Mayer Amschel Rothschild,
founder of the Rothschild banking dynasty

SALTA, ARGENTINA – "We are on our way back to the U.S. Our first stop is the local capital city, Salta. After nine months in the CalchaquĆ­ Valley, it seems odd to walk on pavement… to hear so much noise… and to see so many people, all with their faces covered. Masks are obligatory here.

But do they make any difference? Apparently not. Here’s The New York Times: "A New Study Questions Whether Masks Protect Wearers. You Need to Wear Them Anyway." "Researchers in Denmark reported on Wednesday that surgical masks did not protect the wearers against infection with the coronavirus in a large randomized clinical trial. But the findings conflict with those from a number of other studies, experts said, and is not likely to alter public health recommendations in the United States."

You need to wear them anyway,” says the NYT. But why? Because Christians wear crosses. Jews wear yarmulkes. Sikhs wear turbans. And in the feds’ new religion, the faithful must wear the holy rag. They must give the fist bump and believe in the infallibility of Dr. Fauci and the other high priests. Only they can save us from the wrath of the Great Plague.

Praying for Deliverance: And of course, we’re all on the edge of our pews – waiting for Pfizer or Moderna to come through with the talisman we need to ward off the evil spirits. In Pfizer’s test – this is “science,” remember – they lined up 43,538 people to prove that their latest juju works. Trouble was, they couldn’t get the damned guinea pigs to get sick. As we read the numbers, the mammalian immune system… refined over approximately 285 million years… was the real winner. It was 99.97% effective at preventing serious illness in the whole group. Only nine of the placebo group developed any serious illness, and only one of those who got the vaccine.

That hardly seems very scientific to us, but it was enough for Pfizer to declare their elixir 95% effective! No matter that it is all hocus pocus. As Dr. Fauci said, this is not the time to think independently, or to think at all. This is the “time to do what you are told.” So we bow before the new gods… and pray for deliverance.

Fake Everything: But let us now turn from the gods to Mammon. Here at the Diary, we focus on the money. Or, more precisely, on the fake money that the U.S. tricked up in 1971. We focus on the money, not because we especially care about money itself, but because so much of life depends on it. Money is what we use to keep track of time… effort… luck… forbearance… self-discipline… energy… raw materials… sweat… innovation… and all the other things that go into creating real wealth.

Fake the money, and you also fake up the whole archipelago of rigors, relationships, and realities that rule our lives. We don’t use money simply to measure the value of a ton of grain or a new Mercedes. We use it to measure ourselves and others. We have a “two-bit” (25 cent) lawyer… and we recognize the fool by how fast he and his money part ways. In England, someone is as “nice as nine-pence” or as “queer as a nine-bob note.” 

As for the two political parties in America, as former four-term governor of Alabama George Wallace once remarked, there is “not a dime’s worth of difference between them.”

Fake money fakes up everything… and brings the two parties even closer together. It makes it easier for them to collude – to increase their own power and wealth at the expense of the public. Rather than have to beg for money from the taxpayers… or borrow it from the future… the feds can “print” it. Without this printing-press money, for example, this year’s $7 trillion spending lalapalooza would have been impossible. As would this year’s presidential contest…

Cruel Fate: Poor Donald Trump was outspent, on TV ads alone, by two to one – about a billion dollars more was spent by the Biden team. Where did the money come from? And why did it flow to a hacky has-been? Well, the hack is promising to return things “back to normal.”

Donald Trump actually did more for the insider elite than any president since Franklin Roosevelt. He filled The Swamp with more fake money than any of them. The biggest donors to Joe Biden came from Wall Street. Donald Sussman. Jim Simons. Seth Klarman. Michael Moritz. The hedge fund managers “gave back” some of the fake profits Donald Trump had given them… but to his opponent!

Yes, the ingrates considered Trump unreliable, unpredictable, and embarrassingly uncouth. They laughed at him… they undermined him… and, in the end, they drowned him in The Swamp he had helped create.

Cruel, cruel fate. And now… with the whirling dervish Trump finally becalmed… the hack packing his bags for the move into the White House… and false prophets preaching salvation… we are all ready to get back to the usual grift. Stay tuned…"

"I Wish..."

"I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. 
"So do I," said Gandalf "and so do all who live to see such times. 
But that is not for them to decide.
All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us."

- J.R.R. Tolkien, "Lord of the Rings"

"Top Pathologist Claims COVID-19 Is 'The Greatest Hoax Ever Perpetrated On An Unsuspecting Public'"

"Top Pathologist Claims COVID-19 Is 
'The Greatest Hoax Ever Perpetrated On An Unsuspecting Public'"
 by Paul Joseph Watson

"Top pathologist Dr. Roger Hodkinson told government officials in Alberta during a zoom conference call that the current coronavirus crisis is “the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on an unsuspecting public.” Hodkinson’s comments were made during a discussion involving the Community and Public Services Committee and the clip was subsequently uploaded to YouTube.
Noting that he was also an expert in virology, Hodkinson pointed out that his role as CEO of a biotech company that manufactures COVID tests means, “I might know a little bit about all this.” “There is utterly unfounded public hysteria driven by the media and politicians, it’s outrageous, this is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on an unsuspecting public,” said Hodkinson.

The doctor said that nothing could be done to stop the spread of the virus besides protecting older more vulnerable people and that the whole situation represented “politics playing medicine, and that’s a very dangerous game.” Hodkinson remarked that “social distancing is useless because COVID is spread by aerosols which travel 30 meters or so before landing,” as he called for society to be re-opened immediately to prevent the debilitating damage being caused by lockdowns.

Hodkinson also slammed mandatory mask mandates as completely pointless. “Masks are utterly useless. There is no evidence base for their effectiveness whatsoever,” he said. “Paper masks and fabric masks are simply virtue signalling. They’re not even worn effectively most of the time. It’s utterly ridiculous. Seeing these unfortunate, uneducated people – I’m not saying that in a pejorative sense – seeing these people walking around like lemmings obeying without any knowledge base to put the mask on their face.”

The doctor also slammed the unreliability of PCR tests, noting that “positive test results do not, underlined in neon, mean a clinical infection,” and that all testing should stop because the false numbers are “driving public hysteria.”

Hodkinson said that the risk of death in the province of Alberta for people under the age of 65 was “one in three hundred thousand,” and that it was simply “outrageous” to shut down society for what the doctor said “was just another bad flu.” “I’m absolutely outraged that this has reached this level, it should all stop tomorrow,” concluded Dr. Hodkinson.

Hodkinson’s credentials are beyond question, with the MedMalDoctors website affirming his credibility. “He received his general medical degrees from Cambridge University in the UK (M.A., M.B., B. Chir.) where he was a scholar at Corpus Christi College. Following a residency at the University of British Columbia he became a Royal College certified general pathologist (FRCPC) and also a Fellow of the College of American Pathologists (FCAP).” “He is in good Standing with the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Alberta, and has been recognized by the Court of Queen’s Bench in Alberta as an expert in pathology.”

In case the above video gets deleted by YouTube, a backup via Bitchute is available here."

"Market Fantasy Updates 11/19/20"

"Market Fantasy Updates 11/19/20"
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
"The more I see of the monied classes, 
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
"12 Million Americans Could Lose Unemployment Aid After 
Christmas Without Stimulus; 14 Million Pending Evictions"
Gregory Mannarino, AM 11/19/20:
"This ENGINEERED By Design Economic 
Collapse IS Getting Rapidly Worse"
Updated live.
Daily Update (Nov. 18h to 20th)
Insanity... 
And now... The End Game...

"How It Really Is"

 

"Now Is The Time For Americans To Rebel Against Lockdowns, Mask Mandates, & Forced Vaccination"

"Now Is The Time For Americans To Rebel Against Lockdowns,
 Mask Mandates, & Forced Vaccination"
by Brandon Smith

"With the presidential election highly contested and the mainstream media hyping the rising infection numbers, the public is now facing important questions regarding the future of the pandemic response. Some states have decided to unilaterally introduce “executive orders” to restrict citizen movements, business openings and public activities.

Anthony Fauci is on the news constantly, calling for families to cancel Thanksgiving and Christmas and telling Americans to just “do what we are told”. The media is generally trying to drum up fear in the minds of the populace and paint images of plague and death everywhere. If Biden does actually end up in the White House, a federalized and national high level lockdown is on the table starting in January.

In April of this year I published an article titled ‘Waves Of Mutilation: Medical Tyranny And The Cashless Society’, which outlined a social engineering model put forward by globalists at MIT and the Imperial College of London which I called “wave theory”. The model essentially works like this:

Governments must use the pandemic as a rationale for “waves” of restrictive lockdowns, followed by controlled re-openings of the economy and of normal human activity. Globalists claim that this will “slow” the spread of the coronavirus and save lives. However, they also openly admit that these cycles of closures and openings have other uses.

Over time, the citizenry becomes acclimated to governmental intrusion in their everyday lives, and they get used to the idea of bureaucracy telling them what they are not allowed to do when it comes to the simplest activities. The system thus bottlenecks all human interactions to the point that we are constantly asking for permission. We become slaves to the Covid response.

As globalist Gideon Lichfield from MIT stated in his article ‘We’re Not Going Back To Normal’: “Ultimately, however, I predict that we’ll restore the ability to socialize safely by developing more sophisticated ways to identify who is a disease risk and who isn’t, and discriminating - legally - against those who are.

One can imagine a world in which, to get on a flight, perhaps you’ll have to be signed up to a service that tracks your movements via your phone. The airline wouldn’t be able to see where you’d gone, but it would get an alert if you’d been close to known infected people or disease hot spots. There’d be similar requirements at the entrance to large venues, government buildings, or public transport hubs. There would be temperature scanners everywhere, and your workplace might demand you wear a monitor that tracks your temperature or other vital signs. Where nightclubs ask for proof of age, in future they might ask for proof of immunity - an identity card or some kind of digital verification via your phone, showing you’ve already recovered from or been vaccinated against the latest virus strains.”

Note that Lichfield suggested that in order to participate in the normal economy you might need to show verification that you have been “vaccinated against the latest virus strains”. In other words, the elites expect there to be many more viral events or mutations AFTER Covid 19 has run its course, and the restrictions and controls we see today are meant to continue, possibly FOREVER.

The reality is that the wave model is not a very practical plan for stopping viral spread, but it is a perfect method for conditioning people to submit to a high level of control over their personal lives that they never would have accepted otherwise. The Covid response has also been heralded by elites at the World Economic Forum as a perfect “opportunity” to initiate what they call the “Great Reset”. The reset is a plan to deconstruct what’s left of the free market capitalist system, introduce carbon controls in the name of the global warming fraud, institute a global cashless monetary system, and finally, move humanity into what they call a “shared economy” in which the average person is no longer allowed to own private property of any kind and is completely dependent on the system for their basic necessities.

Of course, such a complex system of “solutions” (dominance) over every individual would need to be managed in a highly centralized way. Meaning, global governance by the elitist establishment would be the end result. Naturally…the globalists would reluctantly take the reins of power for “the greater good”.

This is the bigger picture, the underlying threat at the core of the lockdowns and Covid laws. That said, there are also numerous arguments based on logic and evidence as to why there is no reason for people to submit to such restrictions. Let’s outline them in a simple list:

The Coronavirus Kills Less Than 1% Of The People It Infects: Medical studies in the US indicate that the coronavirus deaths rate for citizens NOT living in nursing homes has been holding well below 1% on average. The largest percentage of deaths by far in the US has been in nursing homes among elderly people with preexisting conditions. People in long term care facilities make up 8% of Covid infection cases but they are 45% of all covid deaths.

Pneumonia alone kills around 50,000 Americans each year according to the CDC, and that’s with vaccinations, yet, we are supposed to panic and hand over all our freedoms in the name of stopping a disease which affects a tiny percentage of the population? This is why the media and governments have decided to hyperfocus on infection numbers rather than deaths. The death numbers do not warrant the amount of panic the establishment is trying to foment.

Lockdowns Destroy The Economy: It’s basic math and finance; the small business sector of the US economy is dying. Small businesses make up around 50% of US employment. The Covid bailout money, handled by international banks like JP Morgan, did not get to the vast majority of small businesses that were supposed to receive it. Those businesses that did get bailouts are still on the verge of closure or bankruptcy. Any further lockdowns will be the final nail in the coffin for the US economy, except for major corporations which are enjoying the lion’s share of stimulus cash.

How many lives will be damaged or lost due to poverty and economic collapse if the current trend continues? I suspect far more than any lives lost because of Covid.

Why is no one in the mainstream talking about the most practical solution to the pandemic? The small percentage of people who are most at risk can STAY HOME and take precautions as necessary, while the rest of us get on with our lives. Why are we being ordered to do the exact opposite just to make less than 1% of the population feel safer? How is this logical, reasonable or scientific? The only answer that makes sense is that the lockdown response is about control, not saving lives.

State Governors Have No Authority To Take Away Your Civil Liberties, And Neither Does The President: Restrictions based on executive orders have no legal authority under the Constitution. They are color of law, not true law. Laws are debated and passed by state legislatures, not by state governors. Executive orders only apply to state employees and have no bearing on the citizenry.

Leftists and statists argue that during a national crisis the governor has emergency powers and states can do whatever they want. This is false. Under the constitution and the Bill of Rights, state governors do not get to proclaim a national emergency based on their personal opinion and then declare themselves dictators in response. Any “laws” exerted because of such a process are therefor null and void; they are meaningless.

If the states have the ability to do whatever they want without oversight, then they would be able to bring back Jim Crow laws (among other things). Do leftists support that idea as well? If the federal government and the president have the power to violate the Bill of Rights during a national emergency, then Donald Trump has the authority to bring in martial law across the country because of leftist riots. Do leftists agree with that outcome?

It is interesting to me that the political left in particular is so keen on defending the idea of states and governors having the power to unilaterally enforce pandemic restrictions without oversight or checks and balances. Yet, they have been aggressively opposed to state powers in the past when they had a Democratic president like Obama in office. The left has also been staunchly opposed to executive orders applied by Donald Trump, but they applaud the idea of executive orders on lockdowns being instituted by Biden.

So, leftists support unilateral state power only when it works in favor of their agenda, and they support unilateral federal and presidential power only when it works in favor of their agenda. What a surprise…

The bottom line is this: State government powers do not supersede the Bill of Rights. Federal government powers do not supersede the Bill of Rights. NO ONE has the legal power to take away your inherent liberties. Those that claim otherwise have something to gain from your enslavement.

Mask Laws Are Unscientific: The majority of masks being used by the public today are cloth masks. Not even the CDC recommends the use of cloth masks for their own employees or medical workers. They only recommend N95 masks. They also admit that cloth masks are much less effective at preventing contact with the virus. Yet, the CDC supports the enforcement of cloth masks for the public.

On top of that, some states and countries with the most stringent mask laws continue to see huge spikes in coronavirus infections. For example, New York has been one of the most tyrannical enforcers of mask laws and lockdowns in the US, but in November the state has witnessed extensive infection increases. California, Michigan and Illinois have also seen dramatic infection spikes this month despite hard enforcement of masks. So, where is the science?

It would appear that masks are a placebo; if they actually worked, then the states with the most aggressive enforcement should be seeing a dramatic downturn in cases, not exponential increases. Furthermore, why are many states and countries trying to force citizens to wear masks outside in open air and sunlight when viruses cannot survive in such conditions? UV light from the sun is nature’s sterilizer, but no one in the mainstream or in government acknowledges this scientific fact. Again, this shows that mask laws are about control, not about science or saving lives.

Covid Vaccination Is Unnecessary And Potentially Dangerous: Why should people get vaccinated for a virus that over 99% of them will easily survive anyway? Why not simply attain “herd immunity” through natural infection spread and antibodies? The mainstream will continue to ignore these questions because they are inconvenient to the wider agenda.

Also, why should anyone trust a vaccine that was rushed out in less than a year’s time? China and the rest of the world spent over a decade trying to develop a vaccine for SARS unsuccessfully, but we are supposed to believe that they created a vaccine for SARS related Covid 19 within months?

The last time the government rushed out a vaccine for a viral epidemic was the 1976 swine flu scare, and that ended with numerous permanently damaged or dead individuals due to faulty vaccines.

As I noted in my article ‘Why The Public Should Rebel Against Forced Vaccinations’, published in May, there are numerous examples of vaccine tests and implementation going very wrong, from Bill Gates and the World Health Organization giving people polio in various countries through vaccines, to Novartis and their deadly testing of a Bird Flu vaccine on homeless people in Poland, to GlaxoSmithCline and the deaths of children due to their pneumonia vaccine.

Again, it’s simply not worth the risk over a virus that over 99% of people will survive. The idea of such risk being forced on the public is completely unacceptable, but many government officials have supported the idea over the past six months. It is important for the public to make it clear now that they will NOT be allowing state or federal governments to make vaccination mandatory.

Rebellion Is Needed To Put A Stop To The Fear Machine: In closing, there are endless reasons why we must end the pandemic lockdown agenda once and for all. Most importantly, the lockdowns, mask orders and vaccine plans are a stepping stone to something much worse – Medical tyranny and centralization on an unprecedented scale. I will not personally follow such rules because they are not scientifically or morally sound. They are nonsense designed to frighten the public into complacency and consent.

A rebellion against such measures would be very easy to win. All we have to do is refuse to follow their mandates. What are they going to do? Lock up millions of people? Shoot us? That would sort of defeat the supposed purpose of the very measures they demand we follow. And, if it comes to violence, so be it. I have no problem fighting to defend my freedoms and the freedoms of future generations. Perhaps it is time for conservatives and moderates that stand against the lockdowns to organize for this possible future."
Related Must Read:

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

Must Watch! “Credit Card Rates Soar; Costco Toilet Paper Sales Skyrocket; Restaurants Destroyed; Economy Weak”

Jeremiah Babe,
“Credit Card Rates Soar; Costco Toilet Paper Sales Skyrocket; 
Restaurants Destroyed; Economy Weak”

"SoftBank CEO Warns Of 'Lehman-Like-Crisis' That Could Crash Global Economy And Society"

"SoftBank CEO Warns Of 'Lehman-Like-Crisis' 
That Could Crash Global Economy And Society"
by Epic Economist

"The SoftBank CEO is warning that a "Lehman-like crisis" could crash the entire global economy. In fact, doomsday predictions for a meltdown of worldwide proportions aren't short amongst experts. In a recent article, renowned anthropologist Joseph Tainter explains why we're already inevitably marching towards the end of the world's civilization as we know it, and we're now headed not only to an economic but also to a major societal breakdown, that will disintegrate the whole system and put humanity back to square one.In this video, we examine experts' insight on how the current financial, economic and social instability is catalyst that could trigger an extraordinary global economic collapse, changing the world as a whole.

Writer and professor, Joseph Tainter is known for having a “sober” perspective when it comes to turbulent episodes experienced worldwide. Amid a global health crisis, walloping unemployment, the eruption of multiple hunger crises, mounting social agitation, and an increasing uncertainty about the future, when questioned if our compounding crises are signaling the start of a major societal rupture, he admitted that our “contemporary society has built-in vulnerabilities that could allow things to go very badly indeed”. 

If deterioration continues to rapidly spread at the foundations that have been holding the world together, a generalized disintegration could happen sooner rather than later. In fact, he disclosed to worry it could begin before the year was over. Economists and market strategists have been constantly alerting that the downfall of a single major institution may lead to a global economic collapse. This institution could be an international bank, a leading multinational company, or even the meltdown of one of the world’s dominant economies.

A global collapse will not solely emerge through the happening of the health crisis, or the financial and economic volatility several nations have been dealing with, or even the social dissatisfaction that is being taken to the streets. It’s when not one, but all of these determinants become unsustainable in various places of the planet that things start to fall apart. And if we take a quick look at our neighbors, we’ll understand why experts have been more scared than ever that things can swiftly spiral out of control. 

Civilizations are fragile, impermanent things. So the fear surrounding a worldwide meltdown isn’t an apprehension regarding a possibility, but instead the consideration that all states that ever risen in human history have also fallen one day. It seems that now, the convergence of all these critical crises across the globe has given the push needed to make society only fall downhill from here.

In other words, the unsustainability of our economic policies, institutions, political and social junctures, have made societies vulnerable to collapse. Challenges that otherwise could be manageable, such as natural disasters, popular uprisings, and viral outbreaks become insuperable. The United States was collapsing way before the occurence of health crisis. For the last 40 years, our population has been growing poorer and more unhealthy as elites continued to collect staggering profits, boosting their wealth, and expanding their institutional legitimacy. 

The current sanitary outbreak has only given us a taste of what happens when a society fails to meet the challenges that it faces, when those who rule the world tend to solely focus on their own issues and leave the population to fight for crumbs. It has emphasized our economic fragility, after we’ve seen years of progress in our unemployment rates being wiped out within the first month of the burst - as well as the formation of several bubbles in the markets, the overwhelming increase of the national debt, and now we’re experiencing a hunger crisis, while our institutions continue to collapse. 

Moreover, the next year’s forecasts point to a massive homelessness crisis and ever further financial hardships. That show us that the outbreak might only be the final blow in a descent that had already become inevitable. Furthermore, on the financial backdrop, the SoftBank CEO Masa Son revealed to be prepared for the worst-case scenario. Son cautioned that an imminent "disaster" could sink global markets in the next months, suggesting that despite the coming of a vaccine, there could be "a major company", whose crash would produce a "domino effect" prompting financial turbulence around the world, and crashing global markets. With all that said, it's clear that the world is one coup short of a serious catastrophe - one that will undoubtedly escort us to an apocalyptic future."

Musical Interlude: Gnomusy (David Caballero), “Dolmen Ridge”

Gnomusy (David Caballero), “Dolmen Ridge”

"A Look to the Heavens"

“Point your telescope toward the high flying constellation Pegasus and you can find this expanse of Milky Way stars and distant galaxies. Centered on NGC 7814, the pretty field of view would almost be covered by a full moon. NGC 7814 is sometimes called the Little Sombrero for its resemblance to the brighter more famous M104, the Sombrero Galaxy. 
 Click image for larger size.
Both Sombrero and Little Sombrero are spiral galaxies seen edge-on, and both have extensive central bulges cut by a thinner disk with dust lanes in silhouette. In fact, NGC 7814 is some 40 million light-years away and an estimated 60,000 light-years across. That actually makes the Little Sombrero about the same physical size as its better known namesake, appearing to be smaller and fainter only because it is farther away. A very faint dwarf galaxy, potentially a satellite of NGC 7814, is revealed in the deep exposure just below the Little Sombrero.”

"Asking For Trouble..."

“We’ve all heard the warnings and we’ve ignored them. We push our luck. We roll the dice. It’s human nature. When we’re told not to touch something we usually do even if we know better. Maybe because deep down, we’re just asking for trouble.”
- “Meredith Grey”, “Gray’s Anatomy”

If so, we've certainly got all we want...

"Covid-19 Pandemic Updates 11/18/20"


Nov. 18, 2020 2:05 PM ET:
The coronavirus pandemic has sickened more than 56,026,900 
people, according to official counts, including 11,517,176 Americans.

      Nov. 18, 2020 2:05 PM ET: 
Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count
Updated 11/18/20, 3:25 PM ET
Click image for larger size.

"Wall Street’s Back to 'Full Bull'”

"Wall Street’s Back to 'Full Bull'”
by Brian Maher

"As the bad penny returns to its sender, as the dog returns to its vomit… Wall Street returns to its bull. That is, Wall Street is nearing "full bull." Thus concludes Bank of America Chief Investment Officer Michael Hartnett. We might add a four-letter scatological conclusion to “bull”... yet our harsh Presbyterian standard forbids it.

The latest Fund Manager Survey is out. That is a monthly barometer of roughly 200 fund managers throughout Earth. And this barometer indicates fair winds and clear skies ahead. 

• 66% of the surveyed believe the global economy is in “early-cycle phase.” That is the highest barometric reading since March 2010. 

• 84% expect an upswing in global growth - the highest percentage in18 years. 

• 73% project a steeper yield curve. That is a record high reading.

In reminder, a steeper yield curve foretells higher growth ahead. A flattened yield curve indicates the opposite.

Greed Is Back: Why precisely is Wall Street nearing “full bull?” BloombergQuint: "The global equity markets rebounded on the back of improving macros, the U.S. election outcome and hopes surrounding a potential Covid-19 vaccine. Cash levels have declined to 4.1% in November from 4.4% in October and 4.8% in September, the survey of a total of 216 panellists with $573 billion assets under management showed. Cash level of less than 4% indicates greed and over 5% fear."

In March… in the razor teeth of the pandemic… CNN’s “Fear and Greed” index had plunged to 2 out of 100 - “extreme fear.” The same index presently reads 72 — “greed.” Any reading above 75 ranges into “extreme greed.” For investors, the nightmare march through the dark, treacherous valley is over. And the wide, sun-soaked uplands are in eyesight.

“Dow 30,000 is dead ahead!” Thus an arctic chill freezes our spinal column… and cold sweat streams down our ashen face.

It’s the Good News We Worry About: For as we have noted before: Bad news frightens us - but good news terrifies us. Too many hopes go up, too many guards go down, too many fools go in, too many “buy, buy, buys” go out. But when a crowd bunches together, we instinctively quicken step… and beat a course for the exits. That is because crowds make us vaguely uneasy. Unsettled. Anxious.

This bullish crowd particularly flusters us. For it gathers around the narrative of “improving macros.” Yet we direct you to the following photographs, taken this prior weekend...
Wall Street Feasts, Main Street Starves: These images depict thousands of automobiles, horizon to horizon, a convoy of the hungry, creeping towards a food bank in Dallas, Texas. Are these the images of improving macros? The North Texas Food Bank piled over 600,000 pounds of food into 25,000 growling bellies last weekend. Incidentally, our understrappers inform us that internet searches for "drive thru food bank near me" are overloading the circuitry.

Lest doubt remain - the stock market is not the economy.

A Return to Full Employment in 2026? Meantime, pre-pandemic unemployment sunk to record lows of 3% or less. It went rocketing to 14.7% in April (likely higher) as millions were thrown from their jobs. Today the official rate hovers at 6.9%. Yet additional lockdowns loom - and fresh issuances of pink slips. When might unemployment return to its pre-pandemic lows? 

To steal a possible glance into the future… we look to the past recession, the 2008 recession. United States employment did not fully recover for 76 months - over six years.

Assume a parallel projection… Pre-pandemic unemployment levels would return in 2026. They may return sooner than 2026 of course. Yet they could return later than 2026. Later, because the pandemic may flatten multiple industries for years and years. These include the travel and hospitality industry, the restaurant industry, the entertainment industry, et cetera. It is our sincere wish that these industries emerge intact - and sooner than we fear. Yet we are not half so convinced they will.

Each Recovery Recovers Less: Meantime, today’s debt burden sits far heavier on the economy than in 2008. And debt drags on an economy as a millstone hung about a man’s neck drags on the man. Total pre-pandemic debt levels already ran to $75 trillion or some other enormity. And debt is piling on by the heap, by the load, by the bushel. Headway will therefore be limited, the sledding difficult.

Here Michael Lebowitz and Jack Scott of Real Inves‌tment Advice pencil an imaginary line. This line connects the 1990 recession, the 2001 recession, the 2008–09 recession… and the 2020 recession. The line forms a downward slope. Each recession requires more time to recover than the previous recession. And each is saddled with more debt than the previous recession:

• The [2008–09] recession was broader based, and affected more industries, citizens, and nations, than the prior recessions of 1990 and 2001

• The 2008–09 recession and recovery also required significantly more fiscal and monetary policy to boost economic activity

• The amount of federal, corporate and individual debt was significantly lower in 1990 and 2001 than 2008–09

• The natural economic growth rate for 1990 and 2001 was higher than the rate going into the 2008–09 recession.

What about growth rates to come?

Half the Previous Rate of Growth: These two gentlemen tie up to this conclusion: “The economic growth rate going forward may be half of the already weak pace heading into the (2020) recession.”

Meantime, the Congressional Budget Office estimates: "The pandemic will hack $8 trillion off real GDP these next 10 years… and $15.7 trillion off nominal GDP." Real GDP minuses out inflation’s false additions, of course. Nominal GDP does not. This lost GDP - if the figures are accurate - is GDP lost forever.

What Will Never Be: It is aborted wealth, pre-murdered wealth. It represents houses never inhabited, automobiles never driven, airplanes never flown, jobs never performed, vacations never taken… It represents computers that will never compute, televisions that will never televise, hacksaws that will never hacksaw, medicines that will never medicate, air conditioners that will never condition the air… It represents businesses that will never do a lick of business. That is, this lost GDP represents a diminished national life. And potentially a vastly diminished national life if actual numbers prove even worse. One year of slack growth, two years of slack growth, these are endurable. Yet a string of annual slack growth is not…

The Long Run: Average real annual economic growth since 1980 runs to 3.22%. Yet since 2009… that figure has fallen to 2.23%. What if the pre-2009 3.22% rate held steady? Jim Rickards estimates the United States would be at least $4 trillion wealthier today.

Extend the malaise 30, 50, 60 years, Jim says… and you arrive at a dismal conclusion: A society that grows at 3.22% will be twice as rich as one that grows at 2.23% over the course of an average lifetime.

Assume two men. The first has enjoyed vast wealth but lost it. The second never knew wealth whatsoever. The first man is the more pitiful of the two… for he knows what he has lost. The second man cannot miss what he has never known. Unless existing trends reverse, the United States may one day feel the sting..."

Gregory Mannarino, "The Biggest Market Meltdown In History Is Coming"

Gregory Mannarino,
Post-market Report 11/18/20:
"The Biggest Market Meltdown In History Is Coming"
Related:

The Poet: David Wagoner, "Getting There"

"Getting There"

"You take a final step and, look, suddenly
You're there. You've arrived.
At the one place all your drudgery was aimed for:
This common ground
Where you stretch out, pressing your cheek to sandstone.

What did you want to be? 
You'll remember soon.
You feel like tinder under a burning glass,
A luminous point of change.

The sky is pulsing against the cracked horizon,
Holding it firm till the arrival of stars
In time with your heartbeats.
Like wind etching rock, you've made a lasting impression
On the self you were,
By having come all this way through all this welter
Under your own power,
Though your traces on a map would make an unpromising
Meandering lifeline.

What have you learned so far? You'll find out later,
Telling it haltingly like a dream,
That lost traveler's dream under the last hill
Where through the night you'll take your time out of mind
To unburden yourself
Of elements along elementary paths
By the break of morning.

You've earned this worn-down, hard, incredible sight
Called Here and Now.
Now, what you make of it means everything,
Means starting over:
The life in your hands is neither here nor there
But getting there,
So you're standing again and breathing, beginning another
Journey without regret
Forever, being your own unpeaceable kingdom,
The end of endings."

~ David Wagoner