"The Iran War And The Looming Economic Collapse"
by Chris Hedges
"For all of President Trump’s recent threats to “annihilate Iran,” the reality is that the United States is running out of both options and time to resolve this US- Israeli-initiated war. The US has made overtures toward renewing a hot war, but it has not gone further than that as the economy, both domestically and globally, deteriorates and other countries reconsider their relationships to the US and to each other. The midterm elections this Fall, with Republicans not poised to do well, are further impacting decisions being made by the Trump administration as well.
Professor John Mearsheimer, a former Air Force captain and author of numerous books on foreign policy and the Middle East, joins The Chris Hedges Report to unpack the competing interests surrounding the war, and to discuss what options are available to the US. Mearsheimer says, “We have no strategy for producing victory in Iran, other than hoping that their economy collapses, which leads to regime change, and then they make all the necessary concessions to us.” This is highly unlikely to happen.
Mearsheimer predicts that the Trump administration is aware that the US has failed and is waiting until after the midterm elections to make a decision about next steps, but he cautions that the US will be in the same position militarily as it is now - the world could enter a long-term economic recession, or worse, depression, by that time. The Bessent strategy of increasing sanctions and recruiting allies to participate in an economic blockade of Iran isn’t working either, as major powers like China and Russia have already defied the US and continue to work with Iran.
The clock is ticking as the closure of the Strait and the successful Ansar Allah attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, blocking Gulf oil coming through the Red Sea, are causing oil supplies, including what remains in the strategic reserves, to dwindle. As it currently stands, the US and Israel have failed to achieve virtually all of their military objectives. Israel’s most important stated goal, preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, is hardly even discussed anymore. With the Supreme Leader assassinated, one of the last remaining impediments to Iranian nuclear armament is gone, and the new guard is increasingly considering developing nuclear weapons. With the US and Israel facing military defeat and devastating economic consequences, a new regional power is rising, and the relationships that have defined the era of US hegemony are shifting rapidly.
The situation with Iran, despite talks between US and Iranian officials at the United Nations and Donald Trump’s apocalyptic threat to annihilate Iran, is a stalemate. The Trump administration, which has achieved none of its original objectives, announced when it attacked Iran on February 28th, refuses to concede defeat, and broker a deal. Iran, for its part, is determined not to end the war, which includes shutting down the Strait of Hormuz and shipping into the Red Sea through the Bab al-Mandab until it has exacted high costs for Washington to preclude further attacks. Iran’s control of these two critical energy waterways made possible by the gains made by their Houthi allies in Yemen means it has a stranglehold on the global economy. By driving up the price of oil, gasoline, diesel, freight and food prices around the globe continue to soar upwards.
The Iranians are clearly hoping the economic pressure will continue to the defeat of the Republican Party in the midterms. Last week, seven Republicans joined Democrats in a 220 to 204 vote to end hostilities with Iran unless authorized by Congress. This is the third time the House has passed such a measure. The cost of the war, deeply unpopular with the American public, is rising. In July, the House approved a $95 billion blueprint to provide some $73 billion in additional funding for the war. The vote to pass the blueprint, however, was razor thin, 216 to 214, with two Republicans opposing the measure. If there is another Republican defection, the vote will be a tie defeating the proposal. If voters punish Republicans in the midterm for the rising prices caused by the war, there will be heavy pressure to cease funding operations against Iran. Exerting this pressure appears to be Iran’s strategy for concluding the conflict. In short, Iran seems to think it does not need to beat the United States but outlast it.
If Democrats take control of the House and Senate, they could bar both new funds and previously appropriated funds or unspent funds. Trump, of course, could veto such a bill, but he would have to veto funding for the Pentagon, if not the entire government.
Joining me to discuss the Iranian debacle is Professor John Mearsheimer. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago. Professor Mearsheimer, who graduated from West Point and was a captain in the Air Force, is the author of numerous books, including “Conventional Deterrence”, “Liddell Hart and the Weight of History”, “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics”, “The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy”, “Why Leaders Lie: The Truth About Lying in International Politics”, and “The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Relations”.
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