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"Brace For A Sweeping Housing Bubble Burst
As Rent And Home Prices Face Dramatic Crash"
by Epic Economist
"The U.S. housing bubble has finally burst, and real estate experts are warning that from ‘coast to coast,’ property values are set to face a sizable crash. Following the massive drop in home builder stocks last week, and lower-than-expected demand for mortgages in May, the housing market collapse is being aggravated by the dramatic surge in interest rates, which are fueling fears that a recession may be near. Affordability is only getting worse, and renters are suffering, too. This month, the median listed rent for a one-bedroom apartment rose above $2,000 for the first time ever. At this point, millions are already behind on their rent payments, and according to a new Bloomberg report, a tidal wave of evictions has begun.
In a backdrop of soaring mortgage rates, and rising treasury yields and borrowing costs, potential homebuyers are facing the most expensive housing prices on record. But as U.S. consumers grapple with higher prices for food, gas, and energy, roughly 19 million prospective buyers have been priced out of the market since January, according to a BlackKnight analysis of Fannie Mae data. And the softening demand has started to deflate the housing bubble much quicker than expected.
Housing starts in May dropped by 14.4% and given that mortgage rates are hovering around the 6% mark, it doesn’t seem likely that the demand will climb back up to where it was a year ago. As prices become too out of reach for many Americans, homes that would typically receive a couple of dozen offers last year aren’t getting a single offer anymore. Over the past two years, the median home price has jumped by 44%, now sitting above the $400,000 mark. In May, home prices surged for the 124th consecutive month, and when higher mortgage rates are added into that equation, the median pay for a median home has actually increased by a shocking 50%.
Rents are skyrocketing, too, causing overall housing affordability to collapse at its fastest rate on record and resulting in a lot of pain for financially drained renters. In the first three months of 2022, a period when the rental market typically cools, apartment occupancy actually hit an all-time high of an extraordinary 97.6%. Asking rents for new leases climbed 15.2% nationally, and far more than that in many places. And this month, the median listed rent for an available one-bedroom apartment rose above $2,000 a month for the first time in U.S. history.
These rent hikes are effectively serving as evictions by landlords who know very well that their tenants will likely have to move as a result, enabling them to rent out the newly vacant units to new tenants at significantly higher rates. According to a new Bloomberg report, more than eight million Americans are behind on rent payments and at risk of facing eviction in the next couple of months. The latest data shows that a tidal wave of evictions is underway. The Princeton University Eviction Lab shows that eviction filings have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels, shooting up by 80% in March and another 47% in May.
Meanwhile, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, Mark Zandi, is warning that the U.S. housing market is on the verge of a “coast to coast” price crash. In short, home price growth can't outrun income growth forever. And given that a smaller share of Americans can afford to buy a home in this environment, and sellers have already started to slash property prices, the 2021 housing boom has seemingly come full circle ending in a historic burst this year. A lot more volatility is coming for the U.S. housing market. This is just a hint of the devastating downturn that's approaching - the 2022 housing market crash has just begun!"
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