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Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Bill Bonner, "The Fuse is Lit"

"The Fuse is Lit"
by Bill Bonner

What message are we sending? We’re sending a message
that we’re a bunch of fools - that we started a war we can’t win.’
- John Mearsheimer, Professor, U. of Chicago

Youghal, Ireland - "Our point of departure today is Tom’s insight...that oil is to the real economy what credit is to Wall Street. In preview, they work together. Amid so many explosions, it’s hard to keep our eyes on the real prize - that is, on the Primary Trend. Prices can go up and down, day to day, month to month. People can think whatever they want. But it’s the long-term trend that will make you either rich...or poor. Are we in a bull market...or a bear market? Are we getting richer...or poorer? Are we headed for peace...or war; for freedom...or slavery? Should we stay in oil and gold...or is it time to move on?

So far, our emphasis on gold has paid off well. When the century began, we were able to trade 40 ounces of gold for the Dow stocks. Now we can get all 30 of them for just ten ounces. Could that trend continue for another 25 years? Maybe. But there are no guarantees. Remember, there are two key ways to ruin an empire: debt and war. The Trump team, bless its heart, is eagerly advancing on both fronts, doing the gods’ dirty work.

This just in, Fortune: "America’s $38 trillion debt crisis is already here. The reckoning comes next." The US has over $38 trillion of national debt. We now spend more annually on interest than on the military. The primary trust funds for Social Security and Medicare are also projected to become insolvent within the next seven years, requiring an automatic benefit cut or even more deficit spending to backfill these programs. These pressures will intensify as the population ages, health care costs rise, and economic growth slows.

And the current war with Iran just makes everything worse. First, because it costs $11 billion per week. And second, because it threatens to wreak havoc on the entire world economy. In this respect, the Trump Team may have a hidden ‘fourth- or fifth- order effects’ agenda. Or it may be remarkably benighted. After the Iranians closed the Strait of Hormuz, Trump commented that “...nobody expected that. We were shocked. They fought back.” Yes, it was a real curve ball...out of left field...like dawn or bankruptcy, nobody would have seen that coming. Nobody. But now that it is here, what effect will it have?

We’ve seen what a sharp, sudden spike in interest rates (the availability of credit) does; businesses tighten up, employees are let go, spending goes down and GDP rates go from positive to negative - a recession, in other words...one that can easily become a depression if the credit tap is turned off for a prolonged period. This is not necessarily a bad thing. Excess credit - not backed by real savings - has to go away somehow. Typically, it disappears in higher prices for consumers...and booms and busts for investors.

Does oil work the same way? Not exactly. Too much (fake) credit is as bad or worse than not enough. Easy money invites sloppy spending. And while fake credit can be created out of thin air...the resources it commands are not. They’re real. Oil, skilled labor, and raw materials take time, capital, and discipline to put together. And once used, they are gone forever. A guy puts in a day’s work; day gone by can never be recovered. That’s how fake credit destroys real wealth. On Main Street, it is wasted on projects that don’t make economic sense. On Wall Street it is gambled away - on cryptos...tokens...Nvidia....AI...and other things unlikely to pay off.

Fake credit is the secret to how the feds can waste so many trillions of dollars. They borrow savings that were never earned, never saved, and never taxed...and use them to fund pointless bureaucracy and corrupt giveaways as well as unnecessary wars. In that regard, the war in Iran is just another way fake credit destroys real wealth.

Yes, the attack on Iran lights the fuse on both ends of the dynamite. It undermines the empire’s wealth while engaging it in nonsense wars at the same time. And it is funded by fake credit. But there’s no such thing as fake oil. And therein lie the ‘short hairs’ by which the mullahs seem to have taken hold of the world economy. The US fake money system can create all the credit you might want - and more! - but it can’t readily add to the world’s supply of oil. Where this will lead, exactly, we don’t know. But we are happy to stay in Maximum Safety Mode until the dust settles. Stay tuned."
o

"Swinging Wildly Toward Armageddon, the Wrecking Ball Gets Wrecked"

"Swinging Wildly Toward Armageddon,
the Wrecking Ball Gets Wrecked"
by David Haggith

"It was not a good day for President Trump. He disgraced himself worse than he ever has by turning to NATO to beg for help with the war he started - Trump’s War. He humiliated himself by pursuing their aid after having already told them he doesn’t need them and having boasted to Iran he doesn’t need anyone.

To a country, all NATO members told the wildly swinging pendulum of a president, in various words, “You shook your finger at all of us all of last year, publicly ridiculing us over how useless we are in your opinion. You tried to take over some of our countries, even threatening the possible use of your military. You tore up old tariff deals that you had made and even boasted about during your first term and then slapped higher tariffs all over us, thereby damaging all of our economies. You changed the terms of your tariffs, and then did it all over again.

“Then you told us, when we didn’t immediately agree to your world-imperiling war with Iran right from the start, much less to helping out in it, that you didn’t need us anyway! AND NOW YOU’RE COMING TO US WITH YOUR HAND OUT FOR HELP??? Now you’re asking again for us to risk the lives of our sons and daughters to join you in a conflict we didn’t want and still don’t agree with, after having said you don't need our permission for this war because you can do anything you want??? Now you’re pushing for us to spend our own treasure from what is left of the economies you damaged to help out in your war????”

As could easily be imagined, Trump’s approach of provoke, punish, then pursue didn’t sell. One has to wonder in what world that approach would ever bring former friends to the rescue. What kind of derangement would make anyone think he could turn to people, even entire nations, he had treated with total disrespect (even though they might deserve it) and then expect them to step in and help him in a war of his own making?

Admittedly, while they used a good number of those words, they didn’t say all of them; but it is without a doubt the sweep of arguments that were banging around inside their splitting heads when Trump approached them actually demanding help, not even asking nicely. You can only slap other world leaders all over the place for so many months before they don’t really feel like your allies anymore; and, if they are smart enough to stay out of a Middle Eastern war in order to avoid escalating it into all-out World War III by throwing all their nations into the fighting mix, then you make yourself look like a completely unhinged, totally out-of-touch fool for turning to those you treated like enemies with your hand now out for help.

You make yourself look like you have no concept whatsoever of how other people think or how they feel about your constant barrage of hostile words and actions … toward them personally, toward their national sovereignty over their own borders and toward you raining down destruction upon their economies. They spent a whole year using up an inordinate amount of their time trying to negotiate through all the chaos you threw at them, only to find out, in the end, you never had the authority to do 9/10ths of what you did!

NATO is a defensive alliance (though it has not always been used that way). There is no provision in its charter that requires NATO members to support attacks made against other non-nations by a member nation when the nation being attacked did not attack the member nation! Worse still, Trump has even talked about attacking other NATO members! So, it is only a wonder that he did not get ripped to shreds even more than he did today. (You can read all about it in the many stories below.)

Russia, China and even a former fangirl turned on Trump: The “Peace President,” as he liked to define himself, is being taken down for all of his warring ways, but especially for the war he started with Iran. Besides the incredulous looks he got from all over Europe as he began disparaging European leaders for not helping him attack Iran, several Russian newspapers commented that his disgraced begging, after bragging that he didn’t need help from anyone, shows that, as one put it, “Iran has Trump by the throat.”

Russian Editor Steven Rosenberg translated the Kommersant article as: “He messed up, and destroyed everything around him, but he wants someone else to clear the rubble and create a new structure. This is, of course, all about him, Donald Trump. The US president pinned Iran to the wall and practically forced it, for its own survival, to block such a key global transport artery as the Strait of Hormuz.”

After doing what the paper calls a “strange political flipflop”, it now says that Trump demands that other countries such as the UK, Germany and China engage in solving in the problem in the form of an assault on Iran. “Such a formulation of the question is, of course, phenomenal cheek” … a “permanent political characteristic” of Trump.

The paper suggested that Trump had finally met his match in Iran, saying he had tried to “strangle” the authorities in Tehran but instead ended up “tightening the noose around his own neck” - and even around countries that had no involvement in the US attack on Iran.

The Russians also took great satisfaction in the fact that Trump’s War has significantly weakened his hand for helping Ukraine. Even the normally restrained Chinese mocked Trump relentlessly. Memes went viral all over the internet about Trump holding out his hand like a beggar to the very people whose purses he has been draining all year.

But the coup de grĂ¢ce of rebukes came from a former beauty queen in Trump’s own USA pageant, who is now a conservative influencer and who was formerly an adoring supporter of Trump and proud member of MAGA. She disgraced him by saying that, because of him, “MAGA is deader than dead.” Carrie Prejean Boller, once a staunch Trump supporter and a beauty pageant queen, is criticizing the Trump administration for what she calls an abandonment of the campaign’s “America First” mentality. In an alarming statement, she disavowed the president from the conservative movement.

“I’ve been a loyal supporter of the president for almost 20 years,” she told broadcaster Piers Morgan. “This goes back to when I was 21 years old, and I was Miss California at the Miss USA pageant. And I’ve known him - I consider him a dear friend - and I will tell you right now, I do not recognize our president… “And MAGA, let me tell you right now, MAGA is dead. It is deader than dead. And Americans are furious,” Prejean Boller said. “We do not recognize President Donald J Trump anymore.”

The center no longer holds: Do you think the wannabe emperor, Trump the Great, might have gone just a little bat-excrement crazy? So crazy that his strongest and most adoring supporters say they no longer even recognize the man? As I said yesterday, don’t take it from me. Take it from them - from those closest to Trump: ‘We clearly just kicked [Iran’s] a** in the field, but, to a large extent, they hold the cards now,’ a source close to the White House told Politico. ‘They decide how long we’re involved, and they decide if we put boots on the ground. And it doesn’t seem to me that there’s a way around that, if we want to save face.’

Some allies fear Trump risks being dragged into an open-ended conflict just as the midterm elections approach, with the escalating war threatening to drive up the cost of living for voters already furious about affordability. ‘The terms have changed,’ said a second person familiar with the military operation. ‘The off-ramps don’t work anymore because Iran is driving the asymmetric action.’

The war has also caused a schism between top allies within Trump’s MAGA movement, including Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, as the President has argued for years against regime-change wars in the Middle East.

The center is no longer holding. The MAGA wall of power Trump erected around himself out of his supporters is falling apart because the center is falling apart. Trump is a man who has no center other than himself. Trump is falling apart. And when the center doesn’t hold, nothing built around it holds.

Trump is the center of his own universe; so, as he said again today, “I can do whatever I want.” He has the hubris of a demigod - someone who has come so thoroughly to believe and wrap himself in the fawning of everyone around him to where he now thinks of himself as a champion who no longer even needs those he wrapped around himself to build his wall of power. He no longer even attempts to be true them and all that he promised them. He has cast that all off as a distraction from his ambitions.

Yesterday, he started referring again to his next plans (because Iran is not enough) - his plans to take Cuba - to do, as he said, whatever he wants with it. There is never enough for the man with too much. President Donald Trump said he believes he will have “the honor of taking Cuba” and “could do anything” he wants with the Caribbean island nation… He talks like Cuba is his toy to do with as he pleases - again like a demigod - an incredible level of human pride.

So, away we go on another scatter-shot mission to take over another nation. Probably a war for next Sunday when Trump needs a distraction from his ongoing failure to bring the Iranian regime to its knees as he promised. He needs a quick victory, as he already claimed he had in Iran, to restore his image as the strongman - to show his supporters, who are rapidly falling away, that his imperial quest can succeed in order to galvanize their support and praise back around him. He needs a quick victory, and Cuba is starting to look like it.

Unfortunately for Trump, it is not likely to play out that way. As we have already seen with Iran, saw with Afghanistan and with Iraq and Syria, these things get messier than the Neocons and newly conned ever believe they will. It will only make him look all the more like the crazy man - stark raving crazy - as he tries to take on nation after nation to seize their land and is not even shy about stating their land or their oil is his aim.

Just this week, Trump said he’s going to seize for the US a strategic Iranian island named “Kharg” in the middle of the Strait of Hormuz because it is the hub of their oil shipping. It appears yesterday and today with his bombing and his moving of 5,000 marines, he has already begun the assault. Looking for land to grab from former European allies who have turned away from him. Looking to grab all of Canada. Seizing control of Venezuelan oil and maybe of its government (we shall see). For the man with too much, it is never enough.

Trump is a wrecking ball, swinging madly all over the planet, hitting any place that strikes his fancy. If he is, as his White House prophets have proclaimed, “God’s anointed” or “appointed,” then he must, as I’ve said, be God’s wrecking ball, intended to destroy the whole world because, so far, that seems to be what is happening. All nations are starting to turn away from the US and from Israel to leave the two to bring on Armageddon. I’m not predicting that is where all of this will go … but his Secretary of War is! I’m just stating an observation that it certainly appears hellbent in that direction. In the process, the president is cracking up and so is all the support around him.

While his departing supporters may be starting to see hints of the narcissism that was always obvious through the emerging cracks in his head, I now see something that goes even deeper. What we witnessed today was a president who is the sole center of his own universe, as is true of any narcissist, caving into his own megalomania. The star is collapsing into his own black hole, pulled in by the gravitas of his own thoughts about himself, and dragging all the light into the collapse."

“Fertilizer Shock”: The Closure Of The Strait Of Hormuz Could Cause Widespread Global Food Shortages"

by Michael Snyder

"If commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed for months, we will witness a global food crisis on a scale that many experts would have once considered to be unthinkable. Over the past couple of weeks, there has been much written about how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused the price of oil to rise, has caused the price of natural gas to soar to insane levels and has caused the average price of diesel in the United States to jump above five dollars a gallon. But I think that the bigger story is what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could mean for global food supplies.

Normally, approximately one-third of all globally-traded nitrogen fertilizer and approximately one-half of all globally-traded sulfur passes through the Strait of Hormuz… "Another world crisis sparked by the war in Iran may also be in the offing. That’s because the region’s oil and gas production has made it one of the world’s leading exporters of nitrogen fertilizers, which are indispensable to the global food system. To produce the chemicals used to grow much of the planet’s crops, natural gas is broken down to extract hydrogen, which is combined with nitrogen to make ammonia, and then mixed with carbon dioxide to make urea. All told, nearly a third of the global trade for nitrogen fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, while almost half of the world’s sulfur, essential in producing phosphate fertilizers, also travels through the corridor."

Reading that should chill you to the core. But that is just part of the story. Fertilizer producers in other countries will also be forced to shut down if they are not able to get the liquified natural gas that normally comes to them through the Strait of Hormuz…Already, fertilizer plants in India and Pakistan are facing production declines given the disruption to natural gas supplies from the Middle East. Gulf countries targeted in the war supply nearly all of Pakistan’s LNG imports, 72% of Bangladesh’s and 53% of India’s.

Even if deescalation occurs, the conflict has likely locked in a food price hike in the coming months. The longer the war continues, the greater the shock to food security as energy and fertiliser prices remain elevated. What we are facing is truly a global problem.

A farmer in Virginia named John Boyd recently admitted to NBC News that local dealers are telling him that “we can’t get the fertilizer” that he needs…"John Boyd Jr., a fourth-generation farmer in Virginia who grows soybeans, corn and wheat, said his fertilizer supplier recently warned him that shipments may not arrive as expected. “The dealers are telling me we can’t get the fertilizer,” Boyd told NBC News in an interview this week. “Due to the war and the bombing through that area, the fertilizer isn’t moving.” Fertilizer is essential to food production, he said, and it must be applied before crops are planted. “If I don’t apply fertilizer, that means I won’t have the yields to make my crop,” Boyd explained."

If one U.S. farmer can’t grow enough, that isn’t a big deal. But if hundreds of thousands of U.S. farmers can’t grow enough, that will be a full-blown national crisis. Stacy Simunek, the president of the Oklahoma Farm Bureau, is warning that we really are facing a worst-case scenario… The war in Iran has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route not only for oil and gas, but also for fertilizers needed to produce the world’s food. “We cannot grow without it. There is absolutely no way you get around it,” said Stacy Simunek, president, Oklahoma Farm Bureau."

If farmers do not grow our food, we do not eat. The U.S. is actually in better shape than much of the rest of the world, because we produce much of the fertilizer that we use. But as Simunek has very aptly observed, if this crisis in the Middle East results in a major global fertilizer shortage, there is no way that we are going to be able to feed the entire world… “Who’s going to feed us? Where are we going to get the food to eat? Where are we going to feed the world? This is critical,” said Simunek. Already, hundreds of millions of people around the world go to bed hungry every night. So a very large disruption to global food production would push us very deep into nightmare territory.

Today, approximately half of the population of the world eats food that is grown using nitrogen fertilizer…"About 4 billion people on the planet eat food grown with synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. Roughly half of the global population, in other words, is alive because of these chemicals converted into nutrients for plants, said Lorenzo Rosa, who researches sustainable energy, water, and food systems at the Carnegie Institution for Science at Stanford University."

Spring planting season in the northern hemisphere is rapidly approaching. The fertilizer that would normally be traveling through the Strait of Hormuz now would get into the hands of farmers around the middle of April. But that isn’t going to happen, and that means that a lot of farmers around the world are simply not going to have the fertilizer that they need in 2026.

China produces more fertilizer than anyone else, and there was hope that they could help ease the potential global supply shock that we are facing, but instead they have chosen to implement very strict restrictions on fertilizer exports…"China is tightening controls on fertilizer exports as disruptions linked to the conflict in Iran ripple through global crop-nutrient markets and push prices higher. Authorities have asked exporters to halt outbound shipments of nitrogen-potassium fertilizer blends while reiterating existing restrictions on urea exports, according to people familiar with the matter. The steps appear aimed at protecting domestic supply and stabilizing prices as farmers prepare for the spring planting season, a period when demand typically peaks in the country’s vast agricultural sector.

People familiar with the situation said the latest directives have effectively paused overseas shipments of most fertilizer types, including compound varieties that had still been moving abroad after China loosened some urea limits last year. One key exception is ammonium sulfate, which accounted for about half of the country’s fertilizer shipments last year and remains unaffected for now."

The Chinese want to make sure that they have enough fertilizer for themselves. A global scramble for what is available has begun, and nobody can blame the Chinese for putting themselves first. But what is the rest of the world supposed to do? White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is telling us that the Trump administration is “all over the fertilizer problem”…"The Trump administration is seeking alternative fertilizer supplies for U.S. farmers as the war in Iran disrupts a key global trade route just weeks before the spring planting season. “We’ve been all over the fertilizer problem,” White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on CNBC Tuesday. “I’m not saying that we can eliminate what disruption there is so far, but we can minimize it for sure.”

Hopefully he is right. But words alone can’t magically get fertilizer into the hands of the farmers that need it. What we really need is for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal. Unfortunately, the Iranians are telling us that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz “cannot be the same as before and return to its previous conditions”… "In a televised interview Tuesday, Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz remained under threat because of the American and Israeli presence in the Gulf region. “The Strait of Hormuz cannot be the same as before and return to its previous conditions,” Qalibaf said, adding that “there is no longer any security.” He also cautioned that US bombs and jets could not destroy Iran’s weapons facilities."

Since the Iranians are not willing to allow commercial traffic to flow through the Strait, it will be up to the United States and Israel to reopen it, because everyone else has decided that they do not want to be involved. This is something that President Trump just posted about on his Truth Social account

"The United States has been informed by most of our NATO “Allies” that they don’t want to get involved with our Military Operation against the Terrorist Regime of Iran, in the Middle East, this, despite the fact that almost every Country strongly agreed with what we are doing, and that Iran cannot, in any way, shape, or form, be allowed to have a Nuclear Weapon. I am not surprised by their action, however, because I always considered NATO, where we spend Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year protecting these same Countries, to be a one way street - We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need. Fortunately, we have decimated Iran’s Military - Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti-Aircraft and Radar is gone and perhaps, most importantly, their Leaders, at virtually every level, are gone, never to threaten us, our Middle Eastern Allies, or the World, again! Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer “need,” or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance - WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

The Europeans are being hurt by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but they have announced that they are simply not willing “to put their people in harm’s way”… “Nobody is ready to put their people in harm’s way in the Strait of Hormuz,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told the Reuters news agency on Tuesday. “We have to find diplomatic ways to keep this open so that we don’t have a food crisis, fertilizers crisis, energy crisis as well.”

I see three ways that the Strait of Hormuz could potentially be reopened soon. The first option would be for the U.S. and Israel to give the Iranians everything that they are demanding and the war would end. But that is certainly not going to happen. The second option would be for the U.S. and Israel to put boots on the ground and secure the Iranian side of the Strait of Hormuz. But that is not going to happen any time soon. The third option would be for the U.S. and Israel to completely destroy the Iranian regime using nuclear weapons, but that would be absolutely unthinkable. The use of nuclear weapons is completely off the table, and I don’t know anyone that would argue with that.

So it appears that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for an extended period of time. In the western world, that will mean that food prices will likely be going up quite substantially. But in impoverished nations all over the globe, the consequences will be much more serious. We are potentially facing widespread global food shortages, and most of us don’t even want to think about what that could look like."

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Jeremiah Babe, "Why Did We Really Bomb Iran? We Aren't Going Back To Normal Times"

Jeremiah Babe, 3/17/26
"Why Did We Really Bomb Iran?
 We Aren't Going Back To Normal Times"
Comments here:

Gerald Celente, "The Greatest Depression"

Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, 3/17/26
"The Greatest Depression: America's 
Uniparty Crime Syndicate Is Destroying The Nation"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present Facts and Truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for What's Next in these increasingly turbulent times."
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Musical Interlude: 2002, "Return to Freedom"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "Return to Freedom"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“You may have heard of the Seven Sisters in the sky, but have you heard about the Seven Strong Men on the ground? Located just west of the Ural Mountains, the unusual Manpupuner rock formations are one of the Seven Wonders of Russia. How these ancient 40-meter high pillars formed is yet unknown.
The persistent photographer of this featured image battled rough terrain and uncooperative weather to capture these rugged stone towers in winter at night, being finally successful in February of last year. Utilizing the camera's time delay feature, the photographer holds a flashlight in the foreground near one of the snow-covered pillars. High above, millions of stars shine down, while the band of our Milky Way Galaxy crosses diagonally down from the upper left.”

"I Was a Strong Man for 83 Years. It Was a Terrible Mistake"

Full screen recommended.
by Life After Sixty and Before It’s Too Late
"I Was a Strong Man for 83 Years. It Was a Terrible Mistake"
"This channel brings you raw, thoughtful conversations inspired by people over sixty - sharing the mistakes they wish they’d avoided, the regrets that stayed with them, and the lessons that truly mattered in the end. These stories are shaped by time, reflection, and hard-earned clarity."
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"How To Recover When The World Breaks You"

"How To Recover When The World Breaks You"
by Ryan Holiday

"There is a line attributed to Ernest Hemingway - that the first draft of everything is sh*t - which, of all the beautiful things Hemingway has written, applies most powerfully to the ending of "A Farewell to Arms." There are no fewer than 47 alternate endings to the book. Each one is a window into how much he struggled to get it right. The pages, which now sit in the Hemingway Collection at the John F. Kennedy Library in Boston, show Hemingway writing the same passages over and over. Sometimes the wording was nearly identical, sometimes whole sections were cut out. He would, at one moment of desperation, even send pages to his rival, F. Scott Fitzgerald, for notes.

One passage clearly challenged Hemingway more than the others. It comes at the end of the book when Catherine has died after delivering their stillborn son and Frederic is struggling to make sense of the tragedy that has just befallen him. “The world breaks everyone,” he wrote, “and afterward many are strong at the broken places. But those that will not break it kills.”

In different drafts, he would experiment with shorter and longer versions. In the handwritten draft he worked on with F. Scott Fitzgerald, for instance, Hemingway begins instead with “You learn a few things as you go along…” before beginning with his observation about how the world breaks us. In two typed manuscript pages, Hemingway moved the part about what you learn elsewhere and instead added something that would make the final book - “If people bring so much courage to this world the world has to kill them to break them, so of course it kills them.”

My point in showing this part of Hemingway’s process isn’t just to definitively disprove the myth - partly of Hemingway’s own making - that great writing is something that flows intuitively from the brain of a genius (no, great writing is a slow, painstaking process, even for geniuses). My point is to give some perspective on one of Hemingway’s most profound insights, one that he, considering his tragic suicide some 32 years later, struggled to fully integrate into his life.

The world is a cruel and harsh place. One that, for at least 4.5 billion years, is undefeated. From entire species of apex predators to Hercules to Hemingway himself, it has been home to incredibly strong and powerful creatures. And where are they now? Gone. Dust. As the Bible verse, which Hemingway opens another one of his books with (and which inspired its title) goes: “One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth forever…The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to the place where he arose…”

The world is undefeated. So really then, for all of us, life is not a matter of “winning” but of surviving as best we can - of breaking and enduring rather than bending the world to our will the way we sometimes suspect we can when we are young and arrogant.

I write about Stoicism, a philosophy of self-discipline and strength. Stoicism promises to help you build an “inner citadel,” a fortress of power and resilience that prepares you for the difficulties of the world. But many people misread this, and assume that Stoicism is a philosophy designed to make you superhuman - to help you eliminate pesky emotions and attachments, and become invincible.

This is wrong. Yes, Stoicism is partly about making it so you don’t break as easily - so you are not so fragile that the slightest change in fortune wrecks you. At the same time, it’s not about filling you with so much courage and hubris that you think you are unbreakable. Only the proud and the stupid think that is even possible. Instead, the Stoic seeks to develop the skills - the true strength - required to deal with a cruel world.

So much of what happens is out of our control: We lose people we love. We are financially ruined by someone we trusted. We put ourselves out there, put every bit of our effort into something, and are crushed when it fails. We are drafted to fight in wars, to bear huge taxes or familial burdens. We are passed over for the thing we wanted so badly. This can knock us down and hurt us. Yes.

Stoicism is there to help you recover when the world breaks you and, in the recovering, to make you stronger at a much, much deeper level. The Stoic heals themselves by focusing on what they can control: Their response. The repairing. The learning of the lessons. Preparing for the future.

This is not an idea exclusive to the West. There is a form of Japanese art called Kintsugi, which dates back to the 15th century. In it, masters repair broken plates and cups and bowls, but instead of simply fixing them back to their original state, they make them better. The broken pieces are not glued together, but instead fused with a special lacquer mixed with gold or silver. The legend is that the art form was created after a broken tea bowl was sent to China for repairs. But the returned bowl was ugly - the same bowl as before, but cracked. Kintsugi was invented as a way to turn the scars of a break into something beautiful.

You can see in this tea bowl, which dates to the Edo period and is now in the Freer Gallery, how the gold seams take an ordinary bowl and add to it what look like roots, or even blood vessels. This plate, also from the Edo period, was clearly a work of art in its original form. Now it has subtle gold filling on the edges where it was clearly chipped and broken by use. This dark tea bowl, now in the Smithsonian, is accented with what look like intensely real lightning bolts of gold. The bowl below it shows that more than just precious metals can improve a broken dish, as the artist clearly inserted shards of an entirely different bowl to replace the original’s missing pieces.

In Zen culture, impermanence is a constant theme. They would have agreed with Hemingway that the world tries to break the rigid and the strong. We are like cups - the second we are made we are simply waiting to be shattered - by accident, by malice, by stupidity or bad luck. The Zen solution to this perilous situation is to embrace it, to be okay with the shattering, perhaps even to seek it out. The idea of wabi-sabi is precisely that. Coming to terms with our imperfections and weaknesses and finding beauty in that.

So both East and West - Stoicism and Buddhism - arrive at similar insights. We’re fragile, they both realize. But out of this fragility, one of the philosophies realizes there is the opportunity for beauty. Hemingway’s prose rediscovers these insights and fuses them into something both tragic and breathtaking, empowering and humbling. The world will break us. It breaks everyone. It always has and always will.

Yet…The author will struggle with the ending of their book and want to quit. The recognition we sought will not come. The insurance settlement we so desperately needed will be rejected. The presentation we practiced for will begin poorly and be beset by technical difficulties. The friend we cherished will betray us. The haunting scene in "A Farewell to Arms" can happen, a child stillborn and a wife lost in labor - and still tragically happens far too often, even in the developed world.

The question is, as always, what will we do with this? How will we respond? Because that’s all there is. The response. his is not to dismiss the immense difficulty of any of these ordeals. It is rather, to first, be prepared for them - humble and aware that they can happen. Next, it is the question: Will we resist breaking? Or will we accept the will of the universe and seek instead to become stronger where we were broken?

Death or Kintsugi? Fragile or, to use that wonderful phrase from Nassim Taleb, 'Antifragile?' Not unbreakable. Not resistant. Because those that cannot break, cannot learn, and cannot be made stronger for what happened. Those that will not break are the ones who the world kills. Not unbreakable. Instead, unruinable."
Freely download "A Farewell To Arms", by Ernest Hemingway, here:

Free Download: Joseph Chilton Pearce, "The Crack in the Cosmic Egg"

"The Crack in the Cosmic Egg: 
New Constructs of Mind and Reality"
by Joseph Chilton Pearce

"The classic work that shaped the thought of a generation with its powerful insights into the true nature of mind and reality.

• Defines culture as a "cosmic egg" structured by the mind's drive for logical ordering of its universe.
• Provides techniques allowing individuals to break through the vicious circle of logic-based systems to attain expanded ways of creative living and learning.

The sum total of our notions of what the world is - and what we perceive its full potential to be - form a shell of rational thought in which we reside. This logical universe creates a vicious circle of reasoning that robs our minds of power and prevents us from reaching our true potential. To step beyond that circle requires a centering and focus that today's society assaults on every level. Through the insights of Teilhard, Tillich, Jung, Jesus, Carlos Castaneda, and others, Joseph Chilton Pearce provides a mode of thinking through which imagination can escape the mundane shell of current construct reality and leap into a new phase of human evolution.

This enormously popular New Age classic is available to challenge the assumptions of readers and help them develop their potential through new creative modes of thinking. With a masterful synthesis of recent discoveries in physics, biology, and psychology, Pearce reveals the extraordinary relationship of mind and reality and nature's blueprint for a self-transcending humanity."
Freely download "The Crack In The Cosmic Egg", by Joseph Hilton Pearce, here:

The Daily "Near You?"

Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico. Thanks for stopping by!

“I Know How to Live… I Don’t Know How to Die”

“I Know How to Live… I Don’t Know How to Die”
by Bill Bonner

“I’ve never done this before…” The woman on the bed was almost a skeleton. The flesh had already gone from her. What was left was an 86-year-old empty tube – shriveled, bent, used up. “I know how to live,” she said. “I don’t know how to die. I don’t know what I’m supposed to think or what I’m supposed to do.”

“Don’t worry about it,” we advised. “It’ll come naturally. Do you need anything?” “Need anything? I need nothing at all. Absolutely nothing. I’m dying. And I have everything I need to do it.” “How about some more pain medication?” “No. I don’t want any. I am only going to do this once. I don’t want to get doped up. I don’t want to miss anything.”

Heaven with Tobacco Fields: People who are dying have a status somewhere between Nobel Prize winners and mobsters. We are reluctant to contradict them. We remember a scene from childhood: We had gone to visit a dying uncle, Edward. Like all our relatives, he was a tobacco farmer. But now the plant he had cared for all his life was killing him: he had lung cancer. Other relatives had gathered at the house to say goodbye. The mood was gloomy, dark… quiet. But the conversation, in early spring, ran in a familiar direction – toward the weather and soil conditions. “They won’t be planting tobacco where I’m going,” said Uncle Edward.

The group fell silent. Some looked down at the floor. Some shuffled toward the kitchen. But Agnes, a cousin, challenged him. “How do you know where you’re going or what they’re doing there?” This enlivened and emboldened the confrĂ©rie of tobacco growers. “Yeah, for all we know they’re pulling the plants already,” said one, glancing out the window to see if the rain had stopped. (The plants were “pulled” from the nursery beds for transplanting in the fields. We particularly disliked pulling them because black snakes enjoyed the warm of the gauze-like covering and slithered among the plants.)

The 12-year-old in the group – your editor – forever admired his cousin Agnes. She could see the truth and had the courage to speak it. None of us knew what happened after death. Why not tobacco farming? We tried to imagine Heaven with tobacco fields. It was so implausible that we had a hard time with it. But we persisted. Rows of the green plants, tended by generations of deceased farmers. The sun must not be so hot in Heaven, we concluded, for there was nothing heavenly about the scorching summer sun when you were cutting tobacco. The ghost farmers must hoe each row… and “top” the plants to remove the flower and force the growth to the leaves, just as we did in the Maryland fields. At the end of the day, sweat-stained and tired, they must gather around their pickup trucks – one foot up on the running board, an elbow on the raised knee, with a cigarette in the right hand.

An Unexplored Mystery: The other professions must have their quarters, too… Wheat farmers need broader fields. Cobblers could enjoy their trade, too. Why not? Heaven – immeasurably large – could have a place for everybody. Even bankers and lawyers might find a spot. For a moment, we imagined what it must be like, with mechanics tightening their bolts and dairymen milking their cows. But if everybody did in Heaven what he did on Earth, what was the point of it? The juvenile mind, like its adult successor, stalled.

Half a century later, it is still stopped where it was left – like a tractor abandoned on the edge of a field, with trees grown up between the wheels. Rust has covered the hood. The tires, cracked from the sun, have flattened and disintegrated. It has moved not an inch forward… leaving the mystery of Heaven completely unexplored. “Well, you’re not dead yet,” we replied. “How about a little apple juice?”

The death rattle began two days later. The goodbyes have all been said. Prayers have been offered. Undertakers contacted. A church put on alert. Remembrances shared. Toward the end there was no one there to share the remembrances with. The spirit seemed to have packed up and moved out before the body got the message. Life always come to an end, sooner or later. New technology offers delays, unfounded hope, and stays of execution – but never a full pardon.”
Bread, "Everything I Own"

"If you were going to die soon and had only one phone call 
you could make, who would you call and what would you say? 
And why are you waiting?"
- Stephen Levine

"Saying Goodbye..."

"The Human Condition"

"The Human Condition"
by Meanings of Life

“We are all of us born, live and die in the shadow of a 
giant question mark that refers to three questions: 
Where do we come from? Why? And where, oh where, are we going?”
- Tennessee Williams

"Man remains largely unknown of himself. What are we, in our innermost recesses, behind our names and our conventional opinions? What are we behind the things we do in our lives, behind what we see in others and what others see in us, or even behind things science says we are? Is man the crazy being about whom Carl Gustav Jung spoke ironically, when he demanded a man to treat? Is man the Dr. Jerkyll that contains in himself a criminal Mister Hyde, and more than a personality, and contradictory feelings?

Are we the result of our dreams, as Prospero, in the Shakespeare’s “The Tempest” asked? Are we able to raise our nature and become the dignified beings evoked by Pico de la Mirandola (It’s the seeds a man cultivates that "will mature and bear fruit in him. If vegetative, he will become a plant; if sensual, he will become brutish; if rational, he will reveal himself a heavenly being; if intellectual, he will be an angel and the son of God")?

Almost two centuries ago, Spencer characterized the contradictory features of natives from the African east coast: "He has at the same time good character and hard heart; he is a fighter, conscientious, good in a precise moment, and cruel, pitiless and violent in the other; superstitious and rudely irreligious; brave and pusillanimous, servile and dominator, stubborn and at the same time fickle, relied to honor views, but without signs of honesty, niggard and economical, but careless and improvident".

It’s probably a good definition of a certain primitive man, to whom we are undoubtedly connected. But we are also cultural and ethic beings. We are able to change our values and behaviors. As William James says, human beings can change their lives through their mental attitudes. We can grow ethically. We can dominate part of our own instincts. And that’s why we can be different from the indigenous African described by Spencer. More: our thought dignifies us ("All the dignity of man consists in thought", says Blaise Pascal). We are, in many senses, the conscience of the Universe, and its utmost elaborated product. As Edgar Morin says, "in the core of our singularity, we carry not only all the humanity, all the life, but also all the cosmos, including its mystery, present in the heart of our beings".

We are creators, creator beings, and, in a sense, we can create, or recreate ourselves. All goes through our mind. It is our mind that constructs our truths and errors, and also the most sublime things in the Universe. And yet evil and stupidity exist in us. Sometimes we fall, we are stroked, and life reveals its cruelty, and we may think as Mark Twain, and say that it was a pity that Noah had arrived late to the ark. In our innermost recesses, there is also the cruelty and the inhumanity of life. Charles Darwin showed that we are descendants of inferior life forms: we have been long ago a "bush and a bird, and a fish silently swimming in the waters", to use the poetic terms used by Empedocles in its "Purifications."

From a genetic and evolutionist point of view, we contain in us the survival reflexes and the aggressiveness of the life forms that preceded us: "All that threatened the cave man - dangers, darkness, famine, thirst, ghosts, demons – all has passed to the interior of our souls, all troubles us, grieves us, threatens us from inside." (Morin). Besides, we are also beings that can differ significantly from each other. We are equal, but also different. "The awake involve a common world, but dreams deviate each one to its own world," Heraclites rather enigmatically declares. He thought we can’t help sleeping and living in illusory worlds, even when awake.

For all these reasons, Blaise Pascal’s celebrated definition of the human being, despite the hard language, not exactly agreeable to our ears, is undoubtedly one of the most powerful that can be applied to the rather unknown being that we can’t help being to ourselves: "What a chimera then is man! What a novelty, what a monster, what a chaos, what a contradiction, what a prodigy! Judge of all things, imbecile worm of the earth; depositary of truth, a sink of uncertainty and error; the pride and refuse of the universe! Who will unravel this tangle?"
This website no longer exists, sadly...

"You Must Not Be Frightened..."

"How should we be able to forget those ancient myths that are at the beginning of all peoples, the myths about dragons that at the last moment turn into princesses; perhaps all the dragons of our lives are princesses who are only waiting to see us act, just once, with beauty and courage. Perhaps everything terrible is in its deepest being something helpless that needs our help. So you must not be frightened if a sadness rises up before you larger than any you have ever seen; if a restiveness, like light and cloud shadows, passes over your hands and over all you do. You must think that something is happening with you, that life has not forgotten you, that it holds you in its hand; it will not let you fall."
- Rainer Maria Rilke

"This Day In History St. Patrick Dies"

"This Day In History St. Patrick Dies"
by History.com

"On March 17, 461, St. Patrick dies at Saul, Downpatrick, Ireland. Today, the late Christian missionary, bishop and apostle of Ireland is honored with the holiday of St. Patrick’s Day on the anniversary of his death. How St. Patrick died is unknown, though he is believed to be in his 70s at the time of his death. Some sources report he was born in 385, but others state it was 387. In death, he was unofficially declared a saint.

Much of what is known about Patrick’s legendary life comes from the "Confessio", a book he wrote during his last years. Born in Roman Britain (likely in what is now Wales, western England or southern Scotland) to a well-to-do Christian family of Roman citizenship, Patrick was captured and likely enslaved at age 16 by Irish marauders. For the next six years, he worked as a herder in Ireland, turning to a deepening religious faith for comfort. Following the counsel of a voice he heard in a dream one night, he escaped and found passage on a ship to Britain, where he was eventually reunited with his family.

According to the "Confessio", while in Britain Patrick had another dream, in which an individual named Victoricus gave him a letter, entitled “The Voice of the Irish.” As he read it, Patrick seemed to hear the voices of Irishmen pleading him to return to their country and walk among them once more. After studying for the priesthood, Patrick was ordained a bishop. He arrived in Ireland around 432 and began preaching the Gospel, converting many thousands of Irish people and building churches around the country. After 40 years of living in poverty, teaching, traveling and working tirelessly, Patrick died in Saul, where he had built his first church.

Since that time, many legends have grown up around Patrick. The patron saint of Ireland is said to have baptized hundreds of people on a single day and to have used a shamrock to describe the Holy Trinity. In art, he is often portrayed trampling on snakes, in accordance with the belief that he drove those reptiles out of Ireland. In reality, research has found snakes were not in the country to begin with."

Dan, I Allegedly, "The Car Market Is Collapsing"

Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 3/17/26
"The Car Market Is Collapsing"
"The automotive industry is facing serious problems in today’s economy, and consumers are paying the price. In this video, I break down shocking reports of deceptive car dealership practices, hidden fees, false advertising, and the recent crackdown involving dozens of dealerships. From misleading pricing to forced add-ons and financing traps, buying a car has become more complicated—and risky—than ever before. We also dive into the bigger economic picture, including delays in online car sales platforms, rising business costs, layoffs, and what’s really happening with electric vehicle inventory. If you're thinking about buying a car, investing in a business, or trying to protect your money in this unstable economy, this is information you need to know right now."
Comments here:

"How It Really is"

(With U.S. debt now at $38.9 trillion, the cost of the interest bill
alone on all that borrowing is about $3 billion a day. A quick calculation:
the USA is paying out over a trillion in interest this year.)

"People Reveal What Is Really Happening In Iran’s Drone War"

Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 3/17/26
"People Reveal What Is 
Really Happening In Iran’s Drone War"
"The numbers don't lie. Iran builds drones for $20,000. America shoots them down with $2,000,000 missiles. Every single time. And Iran has hundreds of thousands of them. While Washington tells you we're winning, our own military analysts are warning we could run out of interceptor missiles within weeks. A billion dollars a day is being spent on this war, with no congressional approval, no vote, and no plan. Meanwhile, a sitting congressman was caught buying defense stocks the same week the Pentagon announced a 300,000 drone purchase. Eleven billion dollars in six days. Enough to fund healthcare for millions. Instead it's gone. And the casualty numbers? The government is lying about those too. A deleted job posting at Dover Air Force Base tells you everything you need to know. Veterans who served in Iraq, Afghanistan, and now watch this unfold are speaking out. Korea. Vietnam. Afghanistan. Iraq. Zero victories. And now Iran. When does it stop?"
Comments here:

"Col. Douglas Macgregor, 'Now There’s No Way Out.' 45,000 Iranian Missiles Ready"

World Conflict Analysis, 3/17/26
"Col. Douglas Macgregor: 
'Now There’s No Way Out.' 45,000 Iranian Missiles Ready"

"Retired U.S. Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor warns that the confrontation between the United States, Iran, and Israel may have reached a point where de-escalation is becoming increasingly difficult. According to Macgregor, the scale of Iran’s missile arsenal is one of the most underestimated factors shaping the conflict. He points to claims that Iran and its regional partners could have access to tens of thousands of missiles and rockets, forming a layered deterrence system capable of striking military bases, cities, and strategic infrastructure across the region. This includes not only Iran’s domestic arsenal but also capabilities distributed among allied groups, creating a multi-front threat environment.

Macgregor argues that such a buildup changes the nature of the war. Instead of a short, decisive campaign, any conflict could turn into a prolonged exchange of strikes, where even advanced air defense systems struggle to intercept large volumes of incoming missiles. He also emphasizes that once both sides are committed and heavily armed, political leaders may find themselves with limited exit options. Each new strike increases pressure to respond, creating a cycle that is difficult to break without appearing to concede. Another concern is the broader regional impact. Large-scale missile exchanges could disrupt critical infrastructure and energy routes - especially near key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz - with consequences for global markets and security.

Macgregor’s warning is stark: when military capabilities reach this scale and escalation is already underway, conflicts can become self-sustaining, driven more by momentum than by clear strategic goals."
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
OPTM, 3/17/26
"Iran Just Struck Knesset Building 
Filled With Israeli Government Ministers"
Comments here:

"China Eyes Taiwan as U.S. Far East Missile Defense Relocated to Mid-East"

"China Eyes Taiwan as U.S. Far East
 Missile Defense Relocated to Mid-East"
by Benjamin Bartee

"I predicted long before the Iran war kicked off in March that 2026 would be the year the CCP pulls the trigger on its long-awaited incursion across the Taiwan Strait to reclaim what it views as its wayward island redoubt. Among other reasons for my crystal-ball prophecy, Xi Jinping himself essentially declared the conquest as a Chinese New Year’s Resolution of sorts, describing the forced “reunification” of Taiwan with China as “unstoppable.”
Full screen recommended.
I can find no indication that my prediction was flawed, and I stand behind it. In the CCP’s eyes, the unfolding geopolitical crisis in Iran may provide a golden opportunity to initiate hostilities while the United States military is distracted and stretched thin. No matter how massive the superpower, fighting a three-front war in far-off regions is usually a recipe for disaster.

In the event of such an invasion, Taiwan’s ostensible regional allies in the neoliberal fold likely wouldn’t be willing or able to do much to thwart China either. Via Asia Times: “If the Iran conflict continues for an extended period, lasting months rather than weeks, while casualties mount and the US appears bogged down, Chinese President Xi Jinping might be tempted to finally make good on his threat to move against Taiwan, a “reunification” he recently characterized as “unstoppable.”

China might assess that its military overmatch around Taiwan is such that the US can’t amass enough force to forestall or respond to a Chinese assault without suffering heavy losses. And if the Americans don’t take the lead, no other regional nation will, not even nearby Japan. Despite impressive niche capabilities, the Japan Self Defense Force can’t fight a major war on its own…

The Iran conflict compounds the distraction and resource drain. Whatever the US does in Iran or provides to Ukraine is not available for a fight in the Western Pacific, and the US military may eventually need to draw on stocks allocated for an Asia-Pacific contingency… But maybe US allies can make up the difference? Unlikely. Japan is remilitarizing, but has a long way to go. South Korea is a huge arms producer but focuses on North Korea, and it’s questionable what Seoul would do in the event of a Taiwan conflict.

Leftist President Lee Jae-myung and his administration are reluctant to anger China. And President Lee himself said, while a candidate, that what China did to Taiwan was not South Korea’s business.” Reports over the past week indicate the recent movement of Patriot missiles and other munitions out of South Korea to fortify the U.S. posture in the Persian Gulf.

Via Reuters:“South Korea can deter any threats from North Korea even ​if Washington redeploys weapons stationed in the country, President Lee Jae Myung said on Tuesday, after reports that U.S. missile defense systems were ‌being sent to the Middle East. Reports on shifting key U.S. military assets have sparked concern in Asia about the potential gaps in regional defences if Washington diverts ships and missiles used to deter military flexing by China and North Korea to other theaters.

“It appears that there is controversy recently over U.S. Forces in Korea shipping some weapons, such as artillery batteries and air-defense weapons, out ​of the country,” Lee said in a cabinet meeting, noting that while Seoul had expressed opposition, it was not in a position to make ​demands. Lee said the removal of some U.S. weapons from the country “does not hinder deterrence strategy towards North Korea,” noting South Korea’s defense spending ⁠and conventional capabilities far exceeded those of North Korea.

South Korea hosts a major U.S. military presence in combined defense against nuclear-armed North Korea, with about 28,500 troops ​and surface-to-air defense systems... South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said on Friday that U.S. and South Korean militaries were discussing the possible redeployment of some U.S. Patriot ​missile defense systems to the conflict in the Middle East. South Korean media reported some missile batteries had been shipped out of Osan Air Base and were likely to be redeployed to U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, though South Korean authorities have not confirmed these reports.”

Reporting over the weekend indicates recently increased Chinese aerial activity near Taiwan, likely to probe defenses and gauge the diplomatic response from the U.S., Japan, South Korea, et al., and possibly to flex some muscle ahead of Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing. Via Politico: “Taiwan saw a surge of Chinese military planes near the island, its defense ministry said Sunday, after a sharp drop in flights over the past two weeks had sparked discussions among observers. The ministry detected 26 Chinese military aircraft around the island on Saturday, with 16 of them entering its northern, central and southwestern Air Defense Identification Zone. Seven naval ships were spotted around the island, it reported.” A few considerations should China pull the trigger:

• Could the United States and its allies realistically fight a three-front war in Eurasia, the Middle East, and the Orient?
• Could American allies, which have long neglected their own defense spending as they have enjoyed the warm embrace of the American “security umbrella,” as it’s known, pull their own weight in each theater?
• Does the global oil squeeze help or hurt China’s military capacity, given that almost all of its oil supplies come through the Strait of Hormuz?
• In the event of escalation, should the U.S. et al. rush to defend Taiwan, would Chinese allies like North Korea and Pakistan, also both nuclear powers, join in?"