"I'm sure the universe is full of intelligent life.
It's just been too intelligent to come here."
"Two possibilities exist: Either we are alone in the
Universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying."
- Arthur C. Clarke
So, we rise from the rubble...
Thursday, April 4, 2024
"It's Not Such An Easy Business..."
“Over the years you get to see what a struggle life is for most people, how tough it is, how easy it is to be judgmental and criticize and stand outside of situations and impart your wisdom and judgment. But over the decades I've got more tolerant of people's flaws and mistakes. Everybody makes a lot of them. When you're younger you feel: "Hey, this person is evil" or "This person is a jerk" or stupid or "What's wrong with them?" Then you go through life and you think: "Well, it's not so easy." There's a lot of mystery and suffering and complication. Everybody's out there trying to do the best they can. And it's not such an easy business.”
- Woody Allen
The Poet: Grace Schulman, “Blessed Is The Light”
“Blessed Is The Light”
“Blessed is the light that turns to fire, and blessed the flames
that fire makes of what is burns.
Blessed the inexhaustible sun, for it feeds the moon that
shines but does not burn.
Praised be hot vapors in earth's crust, for they force up
mountains that explode as molten rock and cool like
love remembered.
Holy is the sun that strikes sea, for surely as water burns
life and death are one. Holy the sun, maker of change,
for it melts ice into water that bruises mountains, honing
peaks and carving gullies.
Sacred is the mountain that promises permanence but
changes, planed by rockslides, cut by avalanche,
crushed, eroded, leeched for minerals.
Sacred the rock that spins for centuries before it shines,
governed by gravity, burning into sight near earth's
orbit, for it rises falling, surviving night.
Behold the arcs your eyes make when you speak. Behold
the hands, white fire. Branches of pine, holding votive
candles, they command, disturbed by wind,
the fire that sings in me.
Blessed is whatever alters, turns, revolves, just as the gods
move when the mind moves them.
Praised be the body, our bodies, that lie down and open
and rise, falling in flame.”
~ Grace Schulman
"Dead Romans Agree: Don’t Let The Small Stuff Bother You"
"Dead Romans Agree:
Don’t Let The Small Stuff Bother You"
by John Wilder
"I woke up this morning just irritated. No particular reason. In all fairness, it was entirely an internal feeling, and I imagine most people never noticed. I was nice and polite to nearly everyone I interacted with. And why not? None of them were my ex-wife. I wasn’t irritated with them, I was just irritated. There were no issues. I wasn’t in pain. No one around me was in particular trouble. Thankfully I’m not an electrician – people might dislike me not being positive at work.
As I thought about it, what was irritating me? I couldn’t quite put a finger on it. There was no rational reason at all. During a conversation lat night, though, I had a reason to quote Marcus Aurelius: “If you are distressed by anything external, the pain is not due to the thing itself, but to your estimate of it; and this you have the power to revoke at any moment.”
Sure, Marcus Aurelius’ kid was an utter tool, but when you become Caesar at 18, well, it might tend to go to your head – think of Commodus as Miley Cyrus, 180 A.D. Back to Marcus, though. Marcus genuinely did his best for the Roman Empire. As near as I can tell, Marcus was a pretty good leader. And that little quote above wasn’t written for you and me. It was written for Marcus, by Marcus. He was reminding himself that the external things in the world had only the power he gave them. He was giving himself a pep talk.
Marcus Aurelius was right. In the conversation I was having lat night, the person was very upset (most of you don’t know the person, though specific readers in California and Indiana do – hi guys!). The reason she was upset? Nothing rational at all. So I quoted a dead Roman emperor. Did it help? I don’t know. I’m beginning to see a pattern where crying people don’t stop crying when I quote dead Roman emperors. I’m beginning to see why the kids call The Mrs. when they want actual human sympathy.
My irritation (I think) came from the same place. Nowhere. I felt fine (except for my right knee which is much better now) and the day generally went fairly well. I realized that the advice I gave was meant just as much for me as for the person I was talking to. I was just being irritated because I let myself be irritated.
Once I was done and realized I didn’t have to be irritated? My irritation disappeared. I know that the way I feel is (generally) my choice. I can choose how I feel: salty, Wednesday, or even drunk. The only reason that I’m not happy every morning is if I choose not to be happy on some particular morning.
Are there actual reasons why I might have different feelings? Sure. If I had mental problems (other than an unseemly affection for awful jokes and a desire to consciously be able to make my fingernails grow absurdly fast) that might be a reason to have a feeling other than what I choose.
Don’t know. I do know that there are people with actual mental problems. There’s proof: some people actually voted for Biden. But, going back to Marcus, that’s not external. Being sick or goofy enough to vote for Biden isn’t external.
Physical pain also is an internal source that can destroy moods. I once (for a few months) had sciatica. I was irritable enough every morning to chew nails and spit bullets. Then I discovered that I could work out for a few hours on an elliptical trainer to make the pain go away. A week later? I was fine. My irritation vanished along with my sciatica, never (hopefully) to return. That was nearly 15 years ago. Sure, I’ve felt pain since then, but most of it was the good pain from a hard workout. Heck, most days the worst thing that happened was the crisp morning breeze running through my back hair.
My mood depends on me. My attitude depends on me. Does that mean that I can’t see the actual situation we’re in? Of course not. I see a nation tearing itself apart. It’s worse: it’s not just a nation, Western Civilization seems to be happily thrashing about as it marches down a path to extinction.
Is that good? Of course not. Does it mean that I should walk around every day being sad? Of course not. I am doing, I assure you, everything I can think of to stave off that darkness. I mean, those memes won’t make themselves. And I am doing it cheerfully. I laugh every day. I smile because I know that most of the things that I worry about can have no power over me unless I give them that power.
Make your choices, and understand that while you might wake up irritated – it’s your choice if you wish to stay in that mood for a minute or an hour. Me? I like being happy, so I choose that, even in moments where it might not be appropriate. I might even need to stop high-fiving people at funerals.
So, I got started late typing this after a day I chose to just be irritated. And, I’m going to choose to end now. With a smile on my face. Go and have a great day. Most of the time, having a great day is just a choice. Choose wisely."
○
"The trick is in what one emphasizes. We either make ourselves miserable,
or we make ourselves happy. The amount of work is the same. "
- Carlos Castaneda
"I Would Rather Have..."
"When a bull is being lead to the slaughter, it still hopes to break loose and trample its butchers. Other bulls have not been able to pass on the knowledge that this never happens and that from the slaughterhouse there is no way back to the herd. But in human society there is a continuous exchange of experience. I have never heard of a man who broke away and fled while being led to his execution. It is even thought to be a special form of courage if a man about to be executed refuses to be blindfolded and dies with his eyes open. But I would rather have the bull with his blind rage, the stubborn beast who doesn't weigh his chances of survival with the prudent dull-wittedness of man, and doesn't know the despicable feeling of despair."
- Nadezhda Mandelstam
"20 Grocery Shortages That Will Make Americans Freak Out This Summer"
Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 4/4/24
"20 Grocery Shortages That Will
Make Americans Freak Out This Summer"
"Every year, we are constantly hit with the bittersweet reality of our favorite grocery items disappearing from store shelves. However, It's always an exciting moment when new versions of our beloved snacks hit the market. But on the flip side, there's nothing quite as disheartening as discovering that our go-to treats have been discontinued for good. In this video, there are 20 items you might miss from your store."
Comments here:
Gerald Celente, "Financial Armageddon, The Trap Is Set"
Full screen recommended.
Health Ranger Report, 4/4/24
"Financial Armageddon, The Trap Is Set"
"Gerald Celente With Critical Warning:
Hundreds of Banks Are Set To Collapse Across America"
View video here:
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, "Your Insurance Company Could Go Bust"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly AM 4/4/24
"Your Insurance Company Could Go Bust"
"State Farm just got downgraded by the rating system for insurance companies. They just canceled another 30,000 policies and 42,000 apartment owners policies. What is next?"
Comments here:
"The Preservation of Sanity And Civilization"
"The Preservation of Sanity And Civilization"
by Paul Rosenberg
"I hadn’t planned on this post, but the ongoing mania compels me to contribute something toward the preservation of sanity and civilization. And so, here are some things to remember:
Humans are idolaters. Or at least most are when pressured. What we’re seeing now is an expression of idolatry and dogma. And bear in mind that the proudly anti-religious are often the most idolatrous and dogmatic. Whenever people are getting whipped up for a cause – any cause – that’s the right time to step away. And if they start chanting, move away quickly. I’ll forgo the long explanation, but joining the pack slays reason, and for as long as you remain in the pack. And this really is idolatry, because whatever we place above reason… whatever we place above open questioning… has become our god.
The crowd is always a deceiver. No one expressed this more concisely than Simone Weil, when she said, “conscience is deceived by the social.” Conscience is individual, social is collective, and the two are at odds. Likewise, sanity is individual and mania is collective. Within the crowd, malice appears as duty, honor, order and justice. To reside in the crowd is to be deceived; the only question is how much. Just a few specifics:
• The more intimidated you are, the less your better functions can operate.
• Moral courage is far, far more important than physical courage.
• The mob is the enemy of what’s best in you. Separate from it at the first opportunity.
Civilization is not a function of systems, it’s a function of what’s in us. We are the primaries; all systems, good, bad or indifferent, are derivatives. The great error of the democratic era, certainly true over my now-fairly-considerable lifetime, was that people believed Democracy would solve all their problems, and would by itself assure civilization. That was always an idolatrous dream. What matters is what we are as individuals. No institution is to be taken as anything more than a blunt tool. The civilization we hold in ourselves is what holds the world in sanity, and nothing else can, no matter how it is advertised.
Grouping degrades human function. As individuals, we are magical creatures who can reverse entropy willfully. Within the group, we are a collection of pieces trying to feel powerful. Being grouped degrades us and teaches us bad lessons. Standing as an individual makes us better, sometimes in spurts and sometimes slowly. Whatever exceptions and gray areas may exist, joining a crowd makes us worse. What makes us better is freedom of conscience, a recognition of human dignity, and a belief in our own efficacy.
Finally…I want to make one statement very clearly, and I hope you remember it: The people who marshal movements are taking advantage of human weaknesses. And yes, many of them are aware of it. So step away from the crowd, cultivate your individual mind, and have civilization in yourself."
"The Middle East: Prelude To All Out War"
MUST VIEW BRUTAL TRUTH!
Full screen recommended.
"Scott Ritter Expose: Israel Is Modern-day
Version Of Hitler's Nazi Germany"
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o
Full screen recommended.
Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 4/4/24
"Max Blumenthal:
Netanyahu's Crimes Against Humanity"
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o
Full screen recommended.
Hindustan Times, 4/4/24
"Iran To Attack Israel Within 48 Hours?
Massive Preparations For 'Mega Strike Underway'"
"Iran is completely exasperated ever since 'Israel attacked' its consulate in Syria. The Middle East media is claiming that Tehran's revenge strike could hit Israel soon. Some outlets, citing military sources, said the attack could take place within 48 hours. According to these reports, Iran's response could spark a major regional conflict. Israel has bolstered its air defenses amid reports of Iran's possible retaliation. The IDF has called up reservist soldiers to prepare for a possible Iranian attack."
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
Times Of India, 4/4/24
"'Israel Will Be…' Iran Hosts Mega Meeting With
Hezbollah, Hamas & Houthis In Tehran"
"Iran vowed to avenge the killing of its 7 commanders who were assassinated in an Israeli strike. At least 16 people were killed including 7 from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in a strike in the Syrian capital. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, head of the Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria, was killed in the attack. Now, Iran is in talks with leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas to take an action against Israel. On the other hand, Israel said that they would not spare anyone who would act as an enemy of Israel. Israel has not taken responsibility for the attack in Syria."
Comments here:
o
Full screen recommended.
"Iran's Nukes, Hezbollah's 150,000 Missiles,
Israeli Iron Dome: Clock Ticking For Biggest Middle East War?"
"It is believed that Iran could also respond to Israeli attack by accelerating its nuclear program. If Iran tries to increase purity of its enriched uranium to 90%, which is considered bomb grade, it could invite Israeli or US strikes."
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o
"Israel is Evil personified.
Israel is Evil embodied."
- Scott Ritter
You cannot reason with or change the behavior of rabidly vicious mad dogs or psychopathically degenerate, bloodthirsty monsters. There is only one solution...
Stipendium peccati mors est, Israel.
So be it...
Gregory Mannarino, "AM/PM 4/4/24"
Gregory Mannarino, AM 4//4/24
"Horror Show: Mass Layoffs Skyrocket!
Business Leaders Warn 'More Are Coming'"
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Gregory Mannarino, PM 4/4/24
"Trump Says The US Is An 'Economic Cesspool"
And He Is 100% Correct!"
Comments here:
Adventures With Danno, "Stock Up Now On These Deals At Kroger!"
Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, AM 4/4/24
"Stock Up Now On These Deals At Kroger!"
"In today's vlog, we are at Kroger and are seeing some amazing deals on groceries. With prices going up everywhere, we encourage everyone to stock up on these sales before they're gone! Get your notepad ready as you do not want to miss this!"
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Bill Bonner, "Poisoned Pennies"
"Poisoned Pennies"
Artificially low interest rates are a problem in themselves. They distort the real cost of capital, tempting people to borrow too much money. Debt increases...leading to a debt crisis of some sort.
by Bill Bonner
Dublin, Ireland - "What a delight! A presidential candidate - neither Democrat nor Republican - who has begun to address the important issues of our time. Moneywise: 'The most pernicious and insidious regressive tax on the poor': RFK Jr. slams the Fed, calls inflation and rate hikes 'poisonous medicines.' But he says there's an even bigger problem. Inflation impacts everyone by eroding the purchasing power of money. However, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. asserts that it's low-income Americans who suffer the most from rising price levels.
As you’ll recall from yesterday, debt growth is ‘unsustainable.’ It’s growing much faster than the economy that supports it. Somethins gotta give. Either the problem is solved intentionally... or unintentionally. RFK, Jr. is a graduate of the London School of Economics. He’s the only candidate to recognize that there is a debt problem. He’s proposing to tackle it. He’s also read at least a few of our Bonner Private Research posts. Whether they had any effect, we don’t know, but if he succeeds in solving America’s debt crisis, we intend to claim credit.
In his interview at Fox News, Kennedy went on to target high interest rates as a source of woe: “Our kids cannot get into a home because the interest rates have gone from 3% two years ago to - for them, the real cost - about seven-and-a-half or 8% to buy a home,” he said. Uh oh... was he suggesting that interest rates should be held down by the Fed? Didn’t he know that it was the Fed’s ultra-low interest rate policy that caused today’s huge debt overhang?
Instead, Kennedy came up with a fairly original and interesting angle: Kennedy believes that both inflation and rate hikes are mere stopgaps for a more significant issue. “The long-term issue is spending, because inflation and high interest rates are just medicine and they both are poisonous medicines,” he argued. As a result, he suggests that “we need to get spending under control” and “dramatically reduce” military spending. Artificially low interest rates are a problem in themselves. They distort the real cost of capital, tempting people to borrow too much money. Debt increases... leading to a debt crisis of some sort.
American Milei: But Kennedy is right. The feds spend too much. They borrow too much. They need lower interest rates to support the debt. And they ‘print’ money to help keep rates low. Low rates... high rates... inflation... inflation control – all are linked to excess spending. The dots connect. And if the problem is to be addressed, intentionally, spending is the place to begin. It has to be brought under control.
It would be nice if a real reformer – maybe like Milei in Argentina or Kennedy in the US -- could solve the problem in an orderly... sensible... way. The wars could be stopped. The budget could be balanced. Peace and prosperity could be restored to the land. But it seems unlikely. Biden and Trump are the front runners. Neither has any interest in the problem – or even any awareness of it. And the whole Beltway, Wall Street, University, Media, Military Establishment benefits from the system as it is. Would this ‘Deep State’ permit a turnaround? Probably not.
So, let’s look at how the debt crisis might play out — unintentionally. We got a hint of it on Tuesday. MarketWatch: "After months of range bound trading, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield appeared to be settling into a pattern similar to what was seen last October, when the rate soared to its highest level since 2007 and briefly burst through 5%. The 10-year rate — used as a benchmark for everything from student debt to auto loans and mortgages — rose 3.4 basis points to end at 4.363% or its highest level since Nov. 27. Yields as far away as Asia, Australia, New Zealand and Europe climbed in unison."
In simple terms, as the US debt grows - we now see it easily going to $50 trillion by 2034 - so does the interest expense. It was $659 billion in 2023... and next year it will approach one trillion. No one really cares how large the debt becomes. But the cost of servicing it must come out of current income. And every penny of earnings that we must devote to paying for yesterday’s bungles is a penny less we can enjoy today. At some point, we have few pennies left...
RFK, Jr. is the only candidate taking the danger seriously. He says the interest will go to 50 cents of every tax dollar within five years. In ten years, it will take 100% of tax revenues. Somewhere along the way, the bond market will spook. Interest rates will soar. And the cost of carrying debt - or adding new debt - will be too much to bear. Then, the US will have no choice. Either it admits that it must cut back, drastically... or it panics, prints money and sends the whole world economy into a real inflationary catastrophe. More to come..."
Greg Hunter, "Biden 8% Approval Means Panic & War"
"Biden 8% Approval Means Panic & War"
by Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
"Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong has new data on President Biden’s approval numbers. Nearly two years ago, President Biden’s real job approval rating in America was just 12%. More than one year ago, the real Biden approval number slipped to 9.5% (and stayed there) according to Armstrong’s world renowned “Socrates” predictive computer program. Now, Biden’s rating tumbled again. Armstrong says, “It is basically hovering around 7.5% to 8% at this stage. I know this goes against the mainstream media, but if you look at Google, it is really politically motivated. The other number you need to look at is the confidence in government, and it is at 28%. This number is unheard of since World War II. (I have another confidential data miner source who backs up Armstrong’s numbers, including the latest 8% job approval number, with nearly identical Biden job approval numbers going back two years. So, yes, there are two solid sources for Biden’s true approval rating.) You will never see Biden’s real numbers on the Lying Legacy Media (LLM), but everybody at the top of the D.C. swamp knows how weak Biden really is.
What does this record low Biden approval rating mean? Armstrong explains, “What you have to be concerned about is our computer is showing a massive panic cycle in September. This is very curious because the Democrat convention is August 19th. At that convention, they can just draft somebody. That has been the rumor for quite some time. They know Biden is really quite pathetic. The Neocons like him because they can do whatever they want. The climate change people are doing the same thing. The President is supposed to act as a referee in the cabinet, and he’s not even there 40% of the time. The collapse in government is because all these agencies are just doing the wrong thing, and nobody is standing in-between. You’ve got the State Department threatening World War III. The problem is a government will fail when you can’t sell the new debt to pay off the old. That’s when a default comes. That’s how a default takes place. You have these Neocons in the State Department constantly trying to create WWIII. Why would you buy a 10-year bond in the face of war? Interest rates always go up in wartime. We don’t have a President running as referee between all these agencies.”
Armstrong says, “Everything is pointing towards war.” Armstrong sees an important turn date coming up and explains, “If we don’t have war, the Fed may do a rate cut after May. I don’t see Powell doing a rate cut at this stage. Our computers see the economy expanding into May, and the ideal peak is May 7th. After that, we are going to move into a recessionary atmosphere up to 2028. It is an inflationary period, and inflation will be rising above economic growth, and that is stagflation.” On record high gold prices, Armstrong says, “Gold prices go up when confidence in government goes down. I expect the gold price will be at least around the $5,000 per ounce level by 2027 or 2028.” There is much more in the 50-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter on Rumble he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong, who will preview his “Mid-year Seminar” in London at the end of May.
"Alert! Run On ATMs Panic; NATO Troops In Ukraine In Weeks; Zelensky Exit Plan; Russia ICBM Scare"
Canadian Prepper, 4/4/24
"Alert! Run On ATMs Panic; NATO Troops In Ukraine In Weeks;
Zelensky Exit Plan; Russia ICBM Scare"
Comments here:
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Judge Napolitano, "Phil Giraldi: US A Rogue Power"
Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 4/3/24
"Phil Giraldi: US A Rogue Power"
Comments here:
o
"Israel Bombed Foreign Aid Workers
Three Times Until They Were All Killed"
o
Jeremiah Babe, "This Is A Real Life Nightmare, You Should Be Very Worried"
Jeremiah Babe, 4/3/24
"This Is A Real Life Nightmare, You Should Be Very Worried;
Endless Disasters Occurring Daily"
Comments here:
Adventures With Danno, "Dollar General Made A Big Mistake!"
Adventures With Danno, PM 4/3/24
"Dollar General Made A Big Mistake!
Why This Is A Bigger Problem Than People Realize!"
Comments here:
Musical Interlude: Creedence Clearwater Revival, "Bad Moon Rising"
Creedence Clearwater Revival,
"Bad Moon Rising"
"A Look to the Heavens"
"Who knows what evil lurks in the eyes of galaxies? The Hubble knows -- or in the case of spiral galaxy M64 - is helping to find out. Messier 64, also known as the Evil Eye or Sleeping Beauty Galaxy, may seem to have evil in its eye because all of its stars rotate in the same direction as the interstellar gas in the galaxy's central region, but in the opposite direction in the outer regions. Captured here in great detail by the Earth-orbiting Hubble Space Telescope, enormous dust clouds obscure the near-side of M64's central region, which are laced with the telltale reddish glow of hydrogen associated with star formation.
M64 lies about 17 million light years away, meaning that the light we see from it today left when the last common ancestor between humans and chimpanzees roamed the Earth. The dusty eye and bizarre rotation are likely the result of a billion-year-old merger of two different galaxies."
Walt Whitman, "Animals"
"Animals"
"I think I could turn and live with animals, they
are so placid and self contain’d;
I stand and look at them long and long,
They do not sweat and whine about their condition;
They do not lie awake in the dark and weep for their sins;
They do not make me sick discussing their duty to God;
Not one is dissatisfied - not one is demented with
the mania of owning things;
Not one kneels to another, nor to his kind that
lived thousands of years ago;
Not one is respectable or industrious over the whole earth."
- Walt Whitman
The Poet : Mary Oliver, “Can You Imagine?”
“Can You Imagine?”
“For example, what the trees do
not only in lightning storms
or the watery dark of a summer’s night
or under the white nets of winter
but now, and now, and now – whenever
we’re not looking. Surely you can’t imagine
they don’t dance, from the root up, wishing
to travel a little, not cramped so much as wanting
a better view, or more sun, or just as avidly
more shade – surely you can’t imagine they just
stand there loving every
minute of it, the birds or the emptiness, the dark rings
of the years slowly and without a sound
thickening, and nothing different unless the wind,
and then only in its own mood, comes
to visit, surely you can’t imagine
patience, and happiness, like that.”
- Mary Oliver, “Long Life”
Free Download: Erich Fromm, “The Fear of Freedom”
“Automaton Conformity”
by Erich Fromm
“In the mechanisms we have been discussing, the individual overcomes the feeling of insignificance in comparison with the overwhelming power of the world outside himself either by renouncing his individual integrity, or by destroying others so that the world ceases to be threatening. Other mechanisms of escape are the withdrawal from the world so completely that it loses its threat (the picture we find in certain psychotic states), and the inflation of oneself psychologically to such an extent that the world outside becomes small in comparison. Although these mechanisms of escape are important for individual psychology, they are only of minor relevance culturally. I shall not, therefore, discuss them further here, but instead will turn to another mechanism of escape which is of the greatest social significance.
This particular mechanism is the solution that the majority of normal individuals find in modern society. To put it briefly, the individual ceases to be himself; he adopts entirely the kind of personality offered to him by cultural patterns; and he therefore becomes exactly as all others are and as they expect him to be. The discrepancy between “I” and the world disappears and with it the conscious fear of aloneness and powerlessness. This mechanism can be compared with the protective coloring some animals assume. They look so similar to their surroundings that they are hardly distinguishable from them. The person who gives up his individual self and becomes an automaton, identical with millions of other automatons around him, need not feel alone and anxious any more. But the price he pays, however, is high; it is the loss of his self.”
- Erich Fromm, “The Fear of Freedom”
Freely download “The Fear of Freedom”, by Erich Fromm, here:
"Mortals, All..."
"We are mortals all, human and nonhuman, bound in one fellowship of love and travail. No one escapes the fate of death. But we can, with caring, make our good-byes less tormented. If we broaden the circle of our compassion, life can be less cruel."
- Gary Kowalski
"The Majority Of Us..."
"The majority of us lead quiet, unheralded lives as we pass through this world. There will most likely be no ticker-tape parades for us, no monuments created in our honor. But that does not lessen our possible impact, for there are scores of people waiting for someone just like us to come along; people who will appreciate our compassion, our unique talents. Someone who will live a happier life merely because we took the time to share what we had to give. Too often we underestimate the power of a touch, a smile, a kind word, a listening ear, an honest compliment, or the smallest act of caring, all of which have a potential to turn a life around. It’s overwhelming to consider the continuous opportunities there are to make our love felt."
- Leo Buscaglia
"Complexity Theory: the Avalanche and the Snowflake"
"Complexity Theory: the Avalanche and the Snowflake"
by James Rickards
"One of my favorites is what I call ‘the avalanche and the snowflake’. It’s a metaphor for the way the science actually works, but I should be clear: it’s not just a metaphor. The science, the mathematics and the dynamics are actually the same as those that exist in financial markets.
Imagine you’re on a mountainside. You can see a snowpack building up on the ridgeline while it continues snowing. You can tell just by looking at the scene that there’s danger of an avalanche. It’s windswept… it’s unstable… and if you’re an expert, you know it’s going to collapse and kill skiers and wipe out the village below. You see a snowflake fall from the sky onto the snowpack. It disturbs a few other snowflakes that lie there. Then, the snow starts to spread… then it starts to slide… then it gains momentum until, finally, it comes loose and the whole mountain comes down and buries the village.
Question: What do you blame? Do you blame the snowflake, or do you blame the unstable pack of snow? I say the snowflake’s irrelevant. If it wasn’t the one snowflake that caused the avalanche, it could have been the one before, or the one after, or the one tomorrow. The instability of the system as a whole was the problem. So when I think about the risks in the financial system, I don’t focus on the ‘snowflake’ that will cause problems. The trigger doesn’t matter.
A snowflake that falls harmlessly – the vast majority of all snowflakes - technically fails to start a chain reaction. Once a chain reaction begins, it expands exponentially, can ‘go critical’ (as in an atomic bomb) and release enough energy to destroy a city. However, most neutrons do not start nuclear chain reactions, just as most snowflakes do not start avalanches.
In the end, it’s not about the snowflakes or neutrons. It’s about the initial critical state conditions that allow the possibiity of a chain reaction or an avalanche. These can be hypothesized and observed at large scale, but the exact moment the chain reaction begins cannot be observed. That’s because it happens on a minute scale relative to the system. This is why some people refer to these snowflakes as ‘black swans’, because they are unexpected and come by surprise. But they’re actually not a surprise if you understand the system’s dynamics and can estimate the system scale.
It’s a metaphor, but really the mathematics behind it are the same. Financial markets today are huge, unstable mountains of snow waiting to collapse. You see it in the gross notional value of derivatives. There is $700 trillion worth of swaps. ($2.5 Quadrillion by other reputable estimates. - CP) These are derivatives off balance sheet, hidden liabilities in the banking system of the world. These numbers are not made up. Just go to the IS annual report and it’s right there in the footnote.
Well, how do you put $700 trillion into perspective? It’s ten times global GDP. Take all the goods and services in the entire world for an entire year. That’s about $70 trillion when you add it all up. Well, take ten times that, and that’s how big the snow pile is. And that’s the avalanche that’s waiting to come down."
Scott Ritter, "Israel's Irremediable Defeat On War With Iran And Hezbollah"
Full screen recommended.
Scott Ritter, 4/3/24
"Israel's Irremediable Defeat
On War With Iran And Hezbollah"
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Full screen recommended.
Danny Haiphong, 4/3/24
"Scott Ritter: Israel Crossed Iran's
Red Line and Total War is Coming"
"Former Marine Corps Intelligence Officer and UN Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter reacts to Israel's latest escalation with Iran that left several of its top military brass slain in Syria. What happens next will shock you."
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