"Social Moore’s Law"

"Social Moore’s Law"

by Brian Maher

"Moore’s Law: the theory that computational power doubles every other year. In brief, that computational power accelerates at an accelerating rate - an exponential rate. We begin to suspect that a sort of social Moore’s law is in effect. That is, that societal change is accelerating at an accelerating rate. This directional movement - we hesitate to label it progress - is likely the child of technological progression. Let us first consider the technological progression.

Gradually, Then Suddenly: From year one anno Domini to year 1820 anno Domini… the Western world’s economic growth averaged an invisible 0.06% a year. 0.06% annual growth equals 6% per century.

United States economic growth alone exceeded 6% in the years 1962, 1965, 1966 and 1984. United States economic growth likewise exceeded 6% following the 2020 plague. We exclude this expansion due to the unnatural contraction that preceded it. Yet the cardinal fact remains: In one year alone… the United States economy has often exceeded the work of an entire century - before the 19th century that is.

The Special Century: An unlikely series of inventions came springing forth in the mid-to-late-19th century. These inventions raised the curtain on a golden age of technological and economic progress… an era of such high razzle-dazzle… it faces no equal in history. The electric light bulb made nighttime daytime. Electric power sent progress hurling on a thousand fronts. The railroad, steamship and internal-combustion engine finally put period to the “homely plod of hoof and sail” that paced transportation since the beginning of the chapter. The telegraph, telephone and radio unhorsed the terrible twin tyrants of time and distance.

The result was a “special century” of technological and economic progress, 1870–1970. Man crammed more technological progress into that one special century than the previous dozen combined. He was chained to Earth some 400,000 years before the Wrights shattered gravity’s “surly bonds” at Kitty Hawk. The 12-second “flight” worked a mere 12 feet of altitude… and 120 feet of distance. Sixty-six years later? Man was rocketing to the moon and Neil Armstrong was taking his giant leap for mankind. Impossible - but there it is.

Moore’s Law and AI: Today some claim that artificial intelligence will surpass natural intelligence, human intelligence, by next year. And if not by next year, in some soon year. The very term “artificial intelligence” had no existence prior to 1955. Inch by glacial inch the technology progressed. And now - if you accept the verdict of experts - artificial intelligence will soon race past its human originator… and show him its dust. In summary, the technological evolution accelerates at accelerating gaits. What about social progress?

Stability Across Time: For nearly his entire existence, the human being was a tribalized and localized creature. Agriculture later moved him into the fields. The state took form. Yet was the social life of 1750 very much different than the social life of 1650 or 1550? Your editor is not credentialed within the field of social history. And he concedes he draws his historical sketch with a wide, wide brush. Yet he hazards the man of 1550, 1650 and 1750 were close relatives.

He was likely Christian and a church-attending man. The devil was real to him and Charles Darwin was alien to him. He likely had his existence within a racially and ethnically homogenized society. He practiced a trade that his father and his father’s father practiced. The concept of social or technological progress was unknown to him. That is because the theory of “progress” was a creation of the 19th century, with its dizzying novelties.

Accelerating Changes: Modern man created the technologies - and the technologies in turn created modern man. Fantastic industrialization, economic effervescence, population expansion and urban primacy transformed his social arrangements. The millimetric changes of millenia became the careening changes of decades. Within a generation, the centuries-old farming community was given over to the assembly line and the punch clock. A new proletarian class came with it. Would you know the name Karl Marx absent the Industrial Revolution and its social upheavals? You would not.

Meantime, the 20th century witnessed fresh social developments. In the United States these included feminism, civil rights legislation, expanded drug intake, sexual liberation, environmentalism, profound secularization. Yet social Moore’s law had yet to acquire existence.

The Biggest Demographic Transformation in History: Now it has acquired existence, at least in our telling. For the American of 2024 inhabits an age of accelerating social acceleration. He inhabits an age of social Moore’s law.

The United States population was 90% Caucasian in 1950. In 2024 the United States population is under 60% Caucasian. Before long it will be under 50% Caucasian. Never in history - never in history - has a nation’s population withstood such vast demographic transformation within so brief a space. The continent of Europe is undergoing a parallel process. You may like it or dislike it. Yet you cannot deny its transformational reality.

Social Moore’s Law Takes Effect: The American man of medium years knew who Daniel Boone was. He very likely kneeled before the altars of George Washington, Tom Jefferson and the nation’s founders. The youthful American of 2024 very likely does not. He likely condemns these fellows as irredeemably racist, sexist, gay-fearing - and in every probability - transgender-fearing.

The older American could not conceive that the statues of his heroes would be dragged down and that schoolhouses bearing their names would be rechristened. For much of his life he was stranger to the term “LBGTQ+.” The concept of homosexual matrimony was alien to him. His pronoun was as obvious to him as the nose upon his face. He is staggered to learn that some 30% of Americans aged 18–25 presently label themselves “non-binary.” It astonishes him that youths as tender as 5 are offered “gender-affirming” care to reverse their biological designation.

That is: In the span of a few brief years the granite, immemorial inviolability of biological sex has itself gone into the hellbox. Societal elites insist that biological females must combat biological males in athletic contests - else it is “transphobic.” We do not stretch or exaggerate the facts. We merely report them.

A Unique Moment in History: Could the American man of 1950 take it all aboard? To ask the question is to answer the question. Nor could the man of 1900, 1800, 1700 or 100 take it all aboard. That is because this man did not inhabit the age of social Moore’s law. The American man of 1980 or 2000 did not even inhabit the age of social Moore’s law. The American man of 2024 - in contrast - does inhabit the age of social Moore’s law.

The society-accepted fundaments of centuries and millennia have collapsed in a heap — within years. Perhaps the nearest historical examples are France’s revolution of 1789–1799 and China’s Cultural Revolution of 1966–1976.

Yet not even Monsieur Robespierre and Chairman Mao believed men could birth children. Nor did they believe - to our knowledge - that boys can blossom into girls and girls can blossom into boys. In 2024 entire societal segments believe it. It is not our intention to condemn it. It is simply to illustrate today’s dizzying pace of change.

When the Acceleration Accelerated: When did social Moore’s law begin to truly gallop? Under our theory of social Moore’s law, the polarizing Obama and Trump regencies represented great accelerations. The vast deliriums of the year 2020 represented another. The triumph of “social” media provided the technological accelerant. Through this media form the most eccentric concepts are thrown into general circulation.

You may agree with these developments or you may disagree with these developments. Yet you cannot deny - as we see it - the lightning pace of these developments. We begin to suspect that the sun will soon rise in the west, set in the east, that Earth will go around the moon and that the sun will go around Earth. What next? The election of an honest politician?

Assume social Moore’s law accelerates ahead. What will society resemble in 10 years, 20 years, 50 years - 100 years? We do not pretend to know. We know only it will not resemble the present…"

- https://dailyreckoning.com/