"Now What?"

"Now What?"

by Brian Maher

"The American people spoke on Election Day. But what did they say? We tune out the ambient noise, cup our ear... and lean in for a closer listen. Yet two days later their message remains garbled, jumbled, indecipherable. The static may not clear for days… or potentially weeks.

Four “battleground” states have yet to declare a definitive winner - Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia - and North Carolina. Certain media outlets placed Wisconsin and Michigan in Biden’s pocket yesterday. But the incumbent stands defiant on his rock, shaking his fists and yelling his war shouts. He has, for example, demanded a recount in the Dairy State of Wisconsin. Why? Bill Stepien, Trump’s campaign manager: "There have been reports of irregularities in several Wisconsin counties which raise serious doubts about the validity of the results."

As Josef Stalin probably never said… “It's not who votes that counts, it's who counts the votes!” We allege no impropriety in Wisconsin or any other united state of course. We retain the truest faith in the pristinity of American democracy… and the saintly virtue of its election officials. Do not dare mention Chicago and its former Mayor Daley - we will not listen!

The president has also filed suit against Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia for counting “illegal votes.” He further retains faith that Arizona is not yet lost. Results released today in fact reveal he has closed in on the challenger.

Can he chase him down ultimately? We do not pretend to know. This we do know: The winner must collar 270 electoral votes. Mr. Biden has 264 by the scruff - at least to our understanding. That is, he is six votes short of the grail. The president - at 217 electoral votes - requires something approaching a royal flush to retain it. Thus the challenger enjoys a drastically shorter route to victory… assuming present results withstand legal challenge.

A winner has yet to be announced, it is true. Yet we can announce a definitive election loser - or losers: Pollsters. Many had Mr. Biden trouncing the president by high single-digits. Trump stood only a 10% chance of victory, some suggested. He may lose yet. The election nonetheless turned out being a nail-chomper, a near-run thing.

For months Jim Rickards argued these polls to pieces, insisting they gave false positives for Biden. He stands vindicated in the overall. It is true, Jim predicted a slender Trump victory. Yet he did grant the authentic possibility of a Biden win: "My models project that Trump will win, but I'd be the first to admit that the uncertainty factor is high, and a Biden victory is certainly possible. Too many variables are involved this year to draw a decisive conclusion. I was more confident of a Trump win in 2016 than in this election."

A cowardly hedge, an artful dodge, a craven attempt to have it both ways? In our telling, no. Jim had to navigate hair-thin margins in key states. A nudge here, a jostle there could swing the entire vote. To anticipate them all is to anticipate the course changes of a flitting fly, numbers issuing from a random number generator, the precise number of lies emerging from Congress any given day. It cannot be done. Yet Jim came nearer than most. And he may yet hit bullseye. But now the all-important question: What next? Jim gives his answer below. Read on."

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"Where Do We Go From Here?"

by Jim Rickards

"We're in the wake of one of the closest elections in U.S. history, at least in the Electoral College count. Joe Biden will win the popular vote count by 3 to 4 million votes. That was totally expected and is irrelevant. Presidents are elected by the Electoral College, not by the popular vote. So, let's turn our attention to that and see where things stand.

Despite the drama and anticipation, the 2020 electoral vote was playing out very much as the 2016 electoral vote played out through the late hours of Election Day and into the early morning on November 4. It’s still playing out today, two days after the election.

Tuesday night a key state evidently flipped. Arizona, which Trump won in 2016, was declared for Joe Biden. That put 11 electoral votes in Biden's column and subtracted 11 from Trump's 2016 total. That wasn’t fatal for Trump in itself, but it made his path to victory far more difficult. Arizona was called prematurely. There were too many outstanding votes to call it for Biden. Biden may end up winning Arizona, but it’s likely to be very close when all votes are counted. Trump may even win.

Alaska goes to Trump. Wisconsin and Michigan have been declared for Biden, although the Trump campaign has issued legal challenges in both states, as well as Pennsylvania. Putting the remaining undecided states to one side, that leaves the Electoral College at Biden 264 - Trump 217 as of noon today. That includes putting Alaska in Trump's column. That call is not official, but no one doubts Trump will get Alaska.

It takes 270 to win. Biden needs six electoral votes to reach 270, assuming the results stand. Trump needs 53. Here are the remaining undecided states as of now and their electoral votes: Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20), and Nevada (6). If Biden wins Nevada alone, it would bring him to 270 electoral votes, even if he loses Arizona and Pennsylvania.

So, the math and the map are pretty simple. Assuming Biden’s victories in Michigan and Wisconsin stand, one more state gets him to 270 electoral votes and is the next president. Game over. If Trump wins Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania he gets to 268 electoral votes and still needs to pick up either Arizona or Nevada.

Trump is clinging to small leads in Georgia and North Carolina and has a more substantial lead in Pennsylvania. Biden is clinging to a small lead in Nevada. The problem is that all of those states have districts that have either not reported yet or have uncounted ballots from a combination of mail-in ballots that have to be counted by hand. Excuses vary from a burst water pipe in the counting center (Atlanta, Georgia) to a public employee day off (Nevada), to small districts just not doing their job (Wisconsin).

Some of these results may be finalized today, but some will not. We may not know results from Nevada or Pennsylvania until Friday. Here are the two critical scenarios:

• Biden holds Arizona and wins Nevada. Result: Biden wins.

• Trump gets Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada or Arizona: Result: Trump wins.

Events are changing in real-time. Of course, other paths are possible, but the above scenarios are the key outlooks.

I'm not aware of any forecaster who said the presidential race would come down to Arizona or Nevada, but there we are. Now we need to recall Yogi Berra's immortal advice: "It ain't over 'till it's over."

The electoral vote scenarios would only apply if there's no litigation, fraud or theft. Unfortunately, all three are in play. When you are stuffing the ballot box, you first wait to see what the "regular" vote is so that you know how many votes you "need" to push your candidate over the top. That seems to have happened. In Wisconsin, over 100,000 Biden votes appeared seemingly out of nowhere on a flash drive delivered by hand from a Democratic district. That put Biden ahead in Wisconsin, but litigation will follow.

Likewise, a huge "absentee ballot" dump appeared in Michigan that heavily favored Biden. The absentee ballot level greatly exceeded past elections raising suspicions of fraud. (Absentee ballots are different from "mail-in" ballots in the sense that they are handled directly by town clerks rather than mass counting centers making them more subject to litigation). Again, litigation is in the works.

Numerous irregularities have been claimed in Pennsylvania. Of course, Philadelphia is notorious for electoral shenanigans, so challenges there cannot be ruled out. Possible legal claims on mail-in ballots in all of these open states include: late postmarks, late receipt, missing postage, missing signatures, non-matching signatures, illegible ballots and more.

Even if all of the ballots are finally counted, some states are likely to be so close that state law will allow for a recount. Wisconsin, for example, will have a recount. Other states will likely follow. Remember Florida in 2000 and the infamous "hanging chads?" Get ready for that times six.

This is just the beginning of a new and more uncertain phase that could go on for weeks. Meanwhile, there are some things we know with much higher certainty. The Republicans have retained control of the U.S. Senate, and Mitch McConnell will remain Majority Leader. That's important. McConnell will act as a wall to prevent adding Puerto Rico and Washington DC as states (giving Democrats four more Senators) and will put an end to packing the Supreme Court and abolishing the Electoral College.

It also means the end of progressive ideas such as the New Green Deal and free everything. Republicans had a lot of Senate seats to defend this year and will have far fewer to defend in 2022. The Republican majority in the Senate may hold until the 2024 election. So, even if Biden wins, his agenda does not.

Similarly, the Republicans picked up at least six seats in the House of Representatives. That's not enough to regain the majority, but it is enough to improve cooperation with the Senate. Democrats lost a number of seats they expected to hold, especially among so-called "moderate" Democrats. The remaining moderate Democrats will not want to lose their seats in the 2022 midterm elections.

That may be enough to nudge some Democrats to work with Republicans and form a moderate working consensus on key issues. The bottom line is that the Republicans have strengthened their hand in the Congress. If Biden wins the White House, the Congress will act as a brake on the progressive, radical agenda. Checks and balances work after all.

There are lots of other presidential scenarios that are more extreme than those described above. Here's a sample that we'll update once the open states are declared:

• Some states may not be able to certify any electors by the statutory December 8, 2020 "safe harbor" date. If that happens, those states could lose their electoral votes. This radically changes the 270 vote threshold.

• Some states may certify two slates of electors; one from a Democratic governor and one from a Republican legislature in the same state. This happened in 1876. This type of dispute could easily go to the Supreme Court.

• So-called "faithless electors" could switch sides in the December 14 Electoral College vote. That's rare but has happened before. Again, a Supreme Court challenge seems likely.

• In an extreme case, if the Electoral College cannot choose a president, there will be a "provisional election" in the Congress in early January. The Senate picks the Vice President and could choose Mike Pence. The House picks the President, and it votes according to delegations, not individual members. Right now, Republicans have a majority of the state delegations even though Democrats have a majority of the members. In this scenario, the House could choose Donald Trump even if Trump loses the popular vote and trails Biden in the electoral vote. This happened in 1824. Remember, as Yogi said, "It ain't over 'till it's over.”

- dailyreckoning.com