Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 2/2/23:
"Big Surprise is Coming..."
Comments here:
So, we rise from the rubble...
Thursday, February 2, 2023
"Great Retail Collapse: The Devastating Impact Of Mass Store Closings In America's Biggest Chains"
Full screen recommended.
"Great Retail Collapse: The Devastating Impact
Of Mass Store Closings In America's Biggest Chains"
By Epic Economist
"The U.S. retail industry has been undergoing some drastic changes in recent years. We have lost thousands of iconic stores and seen many popular brands disappearing from our economic landscape, in a phenomenon known as the “retail apocalypse.” Now, the latest reports show that the ongoing recession is forcing some of the biggest retailers in America, including names like Nike, to conduct mass store closings once again as they rush to cut costs and boost their profit margins before consumer demand declines even further in the months ahead. Industry insiders expect retail bankruptcies to soar this year, with many companies being overwhelmed by an oversupply crisis and the slowest sales growth recorded since 2008.
In recent weeks, some retail favorites have been closing stores in droves as the retail apocalypse comes back with a vengeance. The combination of declining sales, rising operational costs, slower foot traffic, and changing consumer patterns are pushing many popular brands to shutter brick-and-mortar locations before a full-blown recession wreck havoc on their bottom lines as they attempt to weather the storm that is ahead.
Grocery chains like Piggly Wiggly and IGA Supermarkets announced in January that they will start closing multiple locations for good very soon. Meanwhile, in the apparel sector, things are looking ugly. With Americans cutting back on discretionary purchases, many brands are watching sales collapse and they are being left with no alternative other than closing up shop. The scenario is looking so bleak that even consolidated brands like Nike are closing dozens of stores, starting with locations in Ohio, Seattle, and New York City, the company confirmed to The Enquirer. Nike’s inventory glut sent the company’s stock to the lowest level in 20 years. Before the health crisis, the sports retailer was already experiencing a cash flow crisis, and tightening credit conditions are certainly not helping the situation.
Many other struggling chains are at heightened risk of bankruptcy as consumer spending softens. The new wave of turbulence in the sector comes as the end of 2022 has seen an uptick in loan defaults from multiple retailers. But this time around, industry experts say that America’s classic department stores are at the highest risk of going under.
Reports show that in the past seven years around 40 percent of the nation's department stores have closed. A new forecast shared by UBS analysts warns that national chains will be forced to shutter some brick-and-mortar locations to better position themselves for the recession that is at our door, – “even those that survived the combined challenges of the retail apocalypse, which devastated the industry from 2017 to 2020, and the pandemic shutdowns. That's because months of inflation and a looming recession are eating into sales at mid-tier retailers,” the analysts highlighted.
With inflation cooling slowly, the outlook for mid-tier retailers is dim. "I suspect there's going to be a whole round of restructures, bankruptcies, all sorts of upheaval, as we approach the end of the year into next year," the director of retail studies at Columbia University, Mark Cohen, said to Insider. What lies ahead for American retail remains shrouded in darkness, and the impact of the retail apocalypse will haunt us for generations to come. This crisis has cast a long shadow over America, and its consequences will be felt far into the future, leaving us to ponder the grim reality of a world without physical retail stores."
Comments here:
"Prepare For Emergency; Parents Paying Your Bills"
Jeremiah Babe, 2/2/23:
"Prepare For Emergency; Parents Paying Your Bills"
Comments here:
"A Look to the Heavens"
"Galaxies don't normally look like this. NGC 6745 actually shows the results of two galaxies that have been colliding for only hundreds of millions of years. Just off the above digitally sharpened photograph to the lower right is the smaller galaxy, moving away. The larger galaxy, pictured above, used to be a spiral galaxy but now is damaged and appears peculiar. Gravity has distorted the shapes of the galaxies.
Although it is likely that no stars in the two galaxies directly collided, the gas, dust, and ambient magnetic fields do interact directly. In fact, a knot of gas pulled off the larger galaxy on the lower right has now begun to form stars. NGC 6745 spans about 80 thousand light-years across and is located about 200 million light-years away."
“Mirror Neurons: Mirrors In Your Brain”
“Mirror Neurons: Mirrors In Your Brain”
by Casey Kazan
“A recent paradigm-shattering discovery in neuroscience shows how our minds share actions, emotions, and experience - what we commonly call "the monkey see, monkey do" experience. When we see someone laugh, cry, show disgust, or experience pain, in some sense, we share that emotion. When we see someone in distress, we share that distress. When we see a great actor, musician or sportsperson perform at the peak of their abilities, it can feel like we are experiencing just something of what they are experiencing.
Only recently, however, with the discover of mirror neurons, has it become clear just how this powerful sharing of experience is realized within the human brain. In the early 1990's Giacomo Rizzolatti and his colleagues at the University of Parma discovered that some neurons had an amazing property: they responded not only when a subject performed a given action, but also when the subject observed someone else performing that same action. These results had a deep impact on cognitive neuroscience, leading the the world's leading experts to predict that 'mirror neurons would do for psychology what DNA did for biology'.
Vilayanur Ramachandran is a neurologist at the University of California-San Diego and co-author of "Phantoms in the Brain: Probing the Mysteries of the Human Mind" writes that "Giacomo Rizzolatti at the University of Parma has elegantly explored the properties of neurons- the so-called "mirror" neurons, or "monkey see, monkey do" neurons. His research indicates that any given cell in this region will fire when a test monkey performs a single, highly specific action with its hand: pulling, pushing, tugging, picking up, grasping, etc. In addition, it appears that different neurons fire in response to different actions."
The astonishing fact is that any given mirror neuron will also fire when the monkey in question observes another monkey (or even the experimenter) performing the same action. "With knowledge of these neurons, you have the basis for understanding a host of very enigmatic aspects of the human mind: imitation learning, intentionality, "mind reading," empathy- even the evolution of language." Ramachandran writes.
"Anytime you watch someone else doing something (or even starting to do something), the corresponding mirror neuron might fire in your brain, thereby allowing you to "read" and understand another's intentions, and thus to develop a sophisticated "theory of other minds."
Mirror neurons may also help explain the emergence of language, a problem that has puzzled scholars since the time of Charles Darwin, he adds. "Is language ability based on a specially purposed language organ that emerged suddenly 'out of the blue,' as suggested by Noam Chomsky and his disciples? Or did language evolve from an earlier, gesture-based protolanguage? No one knows for sure, but a key piece of the puzzle is Rizzolatti's observation that the ventral premotor area may be a homologue of "Broca's area"- a brain center associated with the expressive and syntactic aspects of language. Rizzolatti and Michael Arbib of the University of Southern California suggest that mirror neurons may also be involved in miming lip and tongue movements, an ability that may present the crucial missing link between vision and language."
To test his idea, Ramachandran tested four Broca's aphasia patients - individuals with lesions in their Broca's areas. He presented them with the sound of the syllable "da," spliced to a videotape of a person whose lips were actually producing the sound "ba." Normally, people hear the "da" as "ba" - the so-called "McGurk effect" - because vision dominates over hearing. To his surprise, he writes, "we found that the Broca's patients did not experience this illusion; they heard the syllable correctly as 'da.' Even though their lesions were located in the left frontal region of their brains, they had a visual problem- they ignored the lip movements. Our patients also had great difficulty with simple lip reading. This experiment provides a link between Rizzolatti's mirror neurons and the evolution of human language, and thus it calls into question the strictly modular view of language, which is currently popular."
Based on his research, Ramachandran predicted that mirror neurons will do for psychology what DNA did for biology: "they will provide a unifying framework and possibly even explain a host of mental abilities that have hitherto remained mysterious and inaccessible to experiments."
Only recently, however, with the discover of mirror neurons, has it become clear just how this powerful sharing of experience is realized within the human brain. In the early 1990's Giacomo Rizzolatti and his colleagues at the University of Parma discovered that some neurons had an amazing property: they responded not only when a subject performed a given action, but also when the subject observed someone else performing that same action. These results had a deep impact on cognitive neuroscience, leading the the world's leading experts to predict that 'mirror neurons would do for psychology what DNA did for biology'.
Vilayanur Ramachandran is a neurologist at the University of California-San Diego and co-author of "Phantoms in the Brain: Probing the Mysteries of the Human Mind" writes that "Giacomo Rizzolatti at the University of Parma has elegantly explored the properties of neurons- the so-called "mirror" neurons, or "monkey see, monkey do" neurons. His research indicates that any given cell in this region will fire when a test monkey performs a single, highly specific action with its hand: pulling, pushing, tugging, picking up, grasping, etc. In addition, it appears that different neurons fire in response to different actions."
The astonishing fact is that any given mirror neuron will also fire when the monkey in question observes another monkey (or even the experimenter) performing the same action. "With knowledge of these neurons, you have the basis for understanding a host of very enigmatic aspects of the human mind: imitation learning, intentionality, "mind reading," empathy- even the evolution of language." Ramachandran writes.
"Anytime you watch someone else doing something (or even starting to do something), the corresponding mirror neuron might fire in your brain, thereby allowing you to "read" and understand another's intentions, and thus to develop a sophisticated "theory of other minds."
Mirror neurons may also help explain the emergence of language, a problem that has puzzled scholars since the time of Charles Darwin, he adds. "Is language ability based on a specially purposed language organ that emerged suddenly 'out of the blue,' as suggested by Noam Chomsky and his disciples? Or did language evolve from an earlier, gesture-based protolanguage? No one knows for sure, but a key piece of the puzzle is Rizzolatti's observation that the ventral premotor area may be a homologue of "Broca's area"- a brain center associated with the expressive and syntactic aspects of language. Rizzolatti and Michael Arbib of the University of Southern California suggest that mirror neurons may also be involved in miming lip and tongue movements, an ability that may present the crucial missing link between vision and language."
To test his idea, Ramachandran tested four Broca's aphasia patients - individuals with lesions in their Broca's areas. He presented them with the sound of the syllable "da," spliced to a videotape of a person whose lips were actually producing the sound "ba." Normally, people hear the "da" as "ba" - the so-called "McGurk effect" - because vision dominates over hearing. To his surprise, he writes, "we found that the Broca's patients did not experience this illusion; they heard the syllable correctly as 'da.' Even though their lesions were located in the left frontal region of their brains, they had a visual problem- they ignored the lip movements. Our patients also had great difficulty with simple lip reading. This experiment provides a link between Rizzolatti's mirror neurons and the evolution of human language, and thus it calls into question the strictly modular view of language, which is currently popular."
Based on his research, Ramachandran predicted that mirror neurons will do for psychology what DNA did for biology: "they will provide a unifying framework and possibly even explain a host of mental abilities that have hitherto remained mysterious and inaccessible to experiments."
- http://www.dailygalaxy.com/
oRelated:
"The Mind's Mirror", Excerpts
"For years, such experiences have puzzled psychologists, neuroscientists and philosophers, who've wondered why we react at such a gut level to other people's actions. How do we understand, so immediately and instinctively, their thoughts, feelings and intentions?"
"The mirror neurons could help explain how and why we "read" other people's minds and feel empathy for them. If watching an action and performing that action can activate the same parts of the brain in monkeys- down to a single neuron- then it makes sense that watching an action and performing an action could also elicit the same feelings in people."
"This neural mechanism is involuntary and automatic," he says. "With it we don't have to think about what other people are doing or feeling, we simply know. It seems we're wired to see other people as similar to us, rather than different," Gallese says. "At the root, as humans we identify the person we're facing as someone like ourselves."
The Poet: William Stafford, ”Today”
”Today”
“The ordinary miracles begin. Somewhere
a signal arrives: “Now,” and the rays
come down. A tomorrow has come. Open
your hands, lift them: morning rings
all the doorbells; porches are cells for prayer.
Religion has touched your throat. Not the same now,
you could close your eyes and go on full of light.
And it is already begun, the chord
that will shiver glass, the song full of time
bending above us. Outside, a sign:
a bird intervenes; the wings tell the air,
“Be warm.” No one is out there, but a giant
has passed through town, widening streets, touching
the ground, shouldering away the stars.”
- William Stafford
"Never, Ever Forget..."
"Never, ever forget that nothing in this life is free. Life demands payment in some form for your "right" to express yourself, to condemn and abuse the evil surrounding us. Expect to pay... it will come for you, they will come for you, regardless. Knowing that, give them Hell itself every chance you can. Expect no mercy, and give none. That's how life works. Be ready to pay for what you do, or be a coward, pretend you don't see, don't know, and cry bitter tears over how terrible things are, over how you let them become."
- Ernest Hemingway, "For Whom the Bell Tolls "
"The Pain is Not Going to Stop"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 2/2/23:
"The Pain is Not Going to Stop"
"Things are going to get worse for the average person. The pain is going to continue. The Fed just raised interest rate a quarter of a percent. That may seem good to you but Jerome Powell just said that this is going to get much worse and we are going to continue to have a raise interest rates."
Comments here:
o
Related:
"Know What's Weird?"
"Know what's weird? Day by day, nothing seems to change,
but pretty soon... everything's different."
- Calvin, from "Calvin and Hobbes"
"A Panicked Empire Tries To Make Russia 'An Offer It Can't Refuse'" (Excerpt)
"A Panicked Empire Tries To Make
Russia 'An Offer It Can't Refuse'"
By Pepe Escobar
Excerpt: "Realizing NATO’s war with Russia will likely end unfavorably, the US is test-driving an exit offer. But why should Moscow take indirect proposals seriously, especially on the eve of its new military advance and while it is in the winning seat?
Those behind the Throne are never more dangerous than when they have their backs against the wall. Their power is slipping away, fast: Militarily, via NATO’s progressive humiliation in Ukraine; Financially, sooner rather than later, most of the Global South will want nothing to do with the currency of a bankrupt rogue giant; Politically, the global majority is taking decisive steps to stop obeying a rapacious, discredited, de facto minority.
So now those behind the Throne are plotting to at least try to stall the incoming disaster on the military front. As confirmed by a high-level US establishment source, a new directive on NATO vs. Russia in Ukraine was relayed to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Blinken, in terms of actual power, is nothing but a messenger boy for the Straussian neocons and neoliberals who actually run US foreign policy. The secretary of state was instructed to relay the new directive – a sort of message to the Kremlin – via mainstream print media, which was promptly published by the Washington Post.
In the elite US mainstream media division of labor, the New York Times is very close to the State Department. and the Washington Post to the CIA. In this case though the directive was too important, and needed to be relayed by the paper of record in the imperial capital. It was published as an Op-Ed (behind paywall).
The novelty here is that for the first time since the start of Russia’s February 2022 Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine, the Americans are actually proposing a variation of the “offer you can’t refuse” classic, including some concessions which may satisfy Russia’s security imperatives.
Crucially, the US offer totally bypasses Kiev, once again certifying that this is a war against Russia conducted by Empire and its NATO minions – with the Ukrainians as mere expandable proxies."
Full, highly recommended article is here:
o
A Must-Read Related:
Scott Ritter, "Iran & Russia Alliance; West Seeks To Destabilize Iran"
Scott Ritter, 2/2/23:
"Iran & Russia Alliance; West Seeks To Destabilize Iran"
"We are joined by Seyed Mohammad Marandi, an Iranian American academic and political analyst. He was born in Richmond, Virginia and spent the first 13 years of his life in the United States. Marandi is a graduate of the University of Tehran and Birmingham University (UK). Marandi is also the former head of the North American Studies program at the University of Tehran. He is currently a professor of English Literature and Orientalism at the university and an adviser to the Iranian nuclear negotiations team in Vienna."
Comments here:
Gonzalo Lira, "The West Is Now Impotent In The Ukraine Conflict"
Gonzalo Lira, 2/1/23:
"The West Is Now Impotent In The Ukraine Conflict"
Comments here:
Gregory Mannarino, "Critical Alert! Central Banks Have Begun A New Phase"
Gregory Mannarino, 2/2/23:
"Critical Alert! Central Banks Have Begun A New Phase,
They Are Literally Buying It All"
Comments here:
o
"Successful crime is dignified with the name of virtue;
the good become the slaves of the wicked;
might makes right; fear silences the power of the law."
- Lucius Annaeus Seneca
"Shopping At Kroger! More Price Increases! Checking Sales!"
Full screen recommended.
Adventures With Danno, 2/2/23:
"Shopping At Kroger!
More Price Increases! Checking Sales!"
"In today's vlog we are at Kroger, and are noticing massive price increases on groceries! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and the empty shelves situation! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:
"Exactly What We Would Expect If A Recession Was Beginning – Sales Are Down Throughout The Economy"
"Exactly What We Would Expect If A Recession Was
Beginning – Sales Are Down Throughout The Economy"
by Michael Snyder
"All of the things that we would expect to see at the start of a major economic downturn are happening. Retail sales are falling, auto sales have been way down, and the housing market is starting to crash like it did in 2008. But unlike the last recession, we are also dealing with a raging inflation crisis, and this is one of the main reasons why real disposable income declined at the fastest rate that we have seen since the Great Depression last year. At this point, close to two-thirds of the entire country is living paycheck to paycheck, and more than half the country cannot even afford to pay an unexpected $1,000 emergency expense. We are in very dangerous territory, because most U.S. consumers are tapped out.
If we really are in the early chapters of a new recession, we would expect to see sales dropping throughout the economy, and that is precisely what is happening right now…"Retail purchases have fallen in three of the past four months. Spending on services, including rent, haircuts and the bulk of bills, was flat in December, after adjusting for inflation, the worst monthly reading in nearly a year. Sales of existing homes in the U.S. fell last year to their lowest level since 2014 as mortgage rates rose. The auto industry posted its worst sales year in more than a decade".
Everyone can see what is taking place. The economy is really slowing down and there are very dark clouds on the horizon. The Wall Street Journal recently asked a group of “business and academic economists” if a recession was coming within the next 12 months, and 61 percent of them said yes…"Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of the economy. A downshifting consumer is a key reason that business and academic economists polled by The Wall Street Journal, on average, put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 61%."
Of course we won’t know whether or not we are officially in a recession at this moment until several months from now. But all the signs indicate that economic conditions have already deteriorated quite significantly. For example, demand for cardboard boxes declined “sharply” during the fourth quarter…"Demand and output for cardboard boxes and other packaging material fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to data released by the American Forest & Paper Association and Fibre Box Association on Friday."
It’s the latest indicator that consumer demand is eroding following the pandemic. Dwindling savings, inflation, rising interest rates and fears of a recession may all be swaying consumers to spend less. To me, this is one of the clearest indicators of what is really going on in our economy. When there is lots of economic activity, there is lots of demand for cardboard boxes. And when economic activity drops off, so does demand for cardboard boxes.
So it should deeply alarm all of us that we just witnessed “the most severe quarterly decline since the Great Financial Crisis”…"U.S. box shipments fell by 8.4% in the fourth quarter, according to the Fibre Box Association. KeyBanc’s Adam Josephson, who leads the bank’s analysis of the packaging industry, wrote in a Sunday note that this was “the most severe quarterly decline since the Great Financial Crisis (2Q09).”
U.S. box operating rates fell to 80.9%, the Fibre Box Association said, which was also a low last seen in the first quarter of 2009. This means nearly 20% of the U.S. capacity to produce boxes was stagnant last quarter. Supply of containerboard, which is used to make corrugated boxes, stood at 4.3 weeks, according to the American Forest & Paper Association. That’s down from last quarter, but still historically high."
Another thing that happens when a recession strikes is that a lot of people get laid off. In recent articles I have been providing lots and lots of examples of this, and today I have a couple of new ones that are quite interesting. During booming economic times, shipping companies tend to bring on lots of extra workers, but when things get bad they start letting people go.
And so it should deeply alarm all of us that FedEx has decided to give the axe to “more than 10% of its global management staffers”…"FedEx Corp. is laying off more than 10% of its global management staffers as the delivery company faces a shipping slowdown. In an email to staff Wednesday, Chief Executive Raj Subramaniam said the company was reducing the size of its officer and director ranks and consolidating some teams and functions. The company declined to say how many jobs were being eliminated."
To me, the fact that Paypal has just announced that it will be laying off “approximately seven percent of its workforce” is even more troubling…"Engadget reports that the leading online payment provider, PayPal, recently announced that it will lay off about 2,000 employees, or approximately seven percent of its workforce. The layoffs are anticipated to take place over the coming weeks and will have varying effects on different segments of the business. The company says the layoffs are in response to a difficult macroeconomic environment that has prompted similar responses from other technology giants like Google and Microsoft."
If even our largest and wealthiest tech companies are laying off workers now, are any jobs in the private sector truly safe? Many that work in the private sector are deeply concerned that they might be next, because thanks to the rising cost of living their savings are almost totally gone. For instance, consider the plight of 32-year-old Minnesota resident Benjamin DeLong…"Recent layoff trends worry Benjamin DeLong, a 32-year-old customer-account manager at an industrial manufacturer in southern Minnesota. His savings rose to $3,700 during the pandemic, thanks in part to government stimulus. He is now down to about 3 cents.
Mr. DeLong said he had to dip into his savings to cover the rising costs of his groceries, utilities and car insurance. He has found some relief in his grocery bills since he and his partner decided last year to purchase some pigs, jointly with other families, to be raised on a relative’s farm. Their portion of meat yielded nearly 150 pounds, saving them about $500 on groceries, Mr. DeLong estimated."
This is what life is like now in much of the country. Millions upon millions of hard working Americans are living on the edge. Now a very serious economic downturn has begun, and things aren’t going to get any easier in the long run. It appears that 2023 is going to be such a tough year for the U.S. economy. Hopefully you were able to build up a sizable emergency fund while times were relatively stable. Unfortunately, most Americans did not, and so they find themselves completely unprepared for what is ahead of us."
Wednesday, February 1, 2023
Gerald Celente, "WW3 Escalating, Middle East Melting Down"
Gerald Celente, Trends Journal, 2/1/23:
"Judge Napolitano:
WW3 Escalating, Middle East Melting Down"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present facts and truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for what’s next in these increasingly turbulent times."
Comments here:
"Douglas Macgregor - Additional 200,000 Troops, Readying A Massive Offensive"
Redacted News, 2/1/23:
"Douglas Macgregor - Additional 200,000 Troops,
Readying A Massive Offensive"
Comments here:
"10 Disruptions That Threaten To Spark Chaos On Supply Chains In 2023"
Full screen recommended.
"10 Disruptions That Threaten To Spark
Chaos On Supply Chains In 2023"
By Epic Economist
"Disruptions to supply chain operations are set to accelerate in 2023, and they are likely to affect businesses’ and consumers’ access to goods, create port holdups, reduce container and freight availability, and push prices to even higher levels in the months ahead. To say that the vast majority of the global population has felt the impact of the supply chain crisis over the past three years is quite an understatement. It’s hard to see how someone – living in any part of the planet – would not have faced the reality of surging consumer prices, delivery delays, and uncertain outlooks.
Industry executives say that 2023 will be a hungover year for supply chains, with lingering headaches from more than two years of shipping congestion, freight problems, and shortages of commodities and raw materials all around the world. “There’s a reliability hangover,” Bill Seward, the new president of supply-chain solutions at United Parcel Service, said in an interview. “Many, many companies still feel chagrined and burned by what happened with regard to accessibility last year,” he said.
There’s still plenty of angst in most sectors. “A lot of senior execs feel very battered by the last two years and there’s a heavy emphasis on risks and the ability to adapt in different ways,” Seward added. At the same time, labor remains the biggest challenge across all modes of logistics and transportation right now. Finding and maintaining enough employees to effectively move products along the distribution network is a major concern as carriers do not have the manpower to ensure schedule reliability. Consequently, this compromises shippers’ ability to deliver supplies and finished goods on time. In the US, particularly in the service sector, 65% of employers reported difficulties in recruitment. Many experts explain that the record logjams witnessed over the past couple of years have contributed to prompting workers to seek alternative employment. On top of that, the current tension in the labor market is leading to higher turnover as workers ask for better pay and working conditions.
Even though consumers are curbing their spending to cope with hot inflation, and demand is expected to sink as a new downturn begins, transportation challenges and product shortages are already occurring, and many factors are combining to make these problems even more acute throughout the year. And it’s safe to say, new bottlenecks may emerge along the way, putting even more pressure on companies and the already struggling shipping industry.
Xeneta’s Peter Sand says that 2023 is poised to be another challenging year for the global supply chain, with global shipping container volumes expected to fall precipituously. The outlook remains bleak, with no signs of a reprieve from the current market moderation. The ING’s Trade Outlook 2023 states, “There are simply not enough silver linings to keep global goods trade robustly flowing.” In fact, global trade growth is expected to slow to just 1.1% during the worldwide industrial recession, according to HSBC. This forecast paints a picture of an industry grappling with a perfect storm of economic and regulatory challenges. The shipping and freight market are facing a turbulent future, and the ramifications of this turbulence will be felt by businesses and consumers alike. It is a time of great uncertainty, and the industry must brace itself for a long and difficult road ahead.
That’s why today, we decided to list some of the major issues that are likely to wreak havoc on supply chains in 2023."
"The Federal Reserve Is Protecting The Stock Market, Not You"
Jeremiah Babe, 2/1/23:
"The Federal Reserve Is Protecting The Stock Market, Not You"
Comments here:
Gregory Mannarino, "Prelude To The Meltdown: The FED Pump Is Just Beginning"
Gregory Mannarino, 2/1/23:
"Prelude To The Meltdown:
The FED Pump Is Just Beginning"
Comments here:
"A Look to the Heavens"
“Can the night sky appear both serene and surreal? Perhaps classifiable as serene in the below panoramic image taken last Friday are the faint lights of small towns glowing across a dark foreground landscape of Doi Inthanon National Park in Thailand, as well as the numerous stars glowing across a dark background starscape. Also visible are the planet Venus and a band of zodiacal light on the image left.
Click image for larger size.
Unusual events are also captured, however. First, the central band of our Milky Way Galaxy, while usually a common site, appears here to hover surreally above the ground. Next, a fortuitous streak of a meteor was captured on the image right. Perhaps the most unusual component is the bright spot just to the left of the meteor. That spot is the plume of a rising Ariane 5 rocket, launched a few minutes before from Kourou, French Guiana. How lucky was the astrophotographer to capture the rocket launch in his image? Not lucky at all- the image was timed to capture the rocket. What was lucky was how photogenic - and perhaps surreal - the rest of the sky turned out to be.”
Chet Raymo, "The Dot and the Abyss"
Click image for larger size.
"The Dot and the Abyss"
by Chet Raymo
"Let's take a stroll around the neighborhood. Nearby. Not very far. Let's say 20 light-years from the Sun. A typical neighborhood, for our neck of the galaxy. About a hundred stars. If we travel to the nearest one on, say, a Voyager spacecraft, it will take us upwards of thirty thousand years to get there. So our neighborhood amble will take a while.
First we'll pop in on Alpha Centauri and its two companions. Alpha is a twin of our Sun, a yellow star. In our 20-light-year neighborhood there are half-a-dozen Sunlike stars. Not many stars are bigger or brighter. Sirius, Altair, Procyon. Nothing really hot and bright like Rigel in Orion, and no red giants. All things considered, our Sun is one of the big shots on the block. A dozen or so orange stars, somewhat cooler and less bright than the Sun. A passel of red dwarfs. And a handful of white dwarfs make up the mix. About a hundred in all.
Click image for larger size.
The next spiral galaxy? Andromeda? Another circular tabletop of a hundred billion stars at the other end of the house. How many galaxies? Well, tens of billions that we can potentially see with current technology, spread out around us in every direction for hundreds of miles. And our sweet little Sun and its one hundred neighboring stars are in this period.
We know all of this. But there is a sense in which we don't know it. Psychologically we still live in the cosmic egg universe of Dante, our cozy planet with the Empyrean just up there above the clouds. We have lived through the most breathtaking transformation of human knowledge and we haven't begun to grasp what it means. It’s as if the transformation never happened. We know and we don't know. Maybe we don't want to know."
"Decline of Empire:
Parallels Between the U.S. and Rome, Part V"
by Doug Casey
"Despite all our similarities with Rome, and even equipped with our understanding of why Rome collapsed, we can’t avoid Rome’s fate just by trying to avoid Rome’s mistakes. Yes, we have an analogue of early Christianity chewing away at our civilization’s foundations. And yes, we have a virtual barbarian invasion to contend with. But there’s another factor, I think, that worked against the Romans and is working against us… one Gibbon didn’t consider.
We can’t evade the second law of thermodynamics, which holds that entropy conquers everything and that over time all systems degrade and wind down. And that the more complex a system becomes, the more energy it takes to maintain it. The larger and more complex, interconnected, and interdependent it becomes, the more prone it is to breakdown and catastrophic failure. That includes countries and civilizations.
The Romans reached their physical limits within the confines of their scientific, engineering, economic, and other areas of knowledge. And the moral values of their civilization, their founding philosophies, were washed away by a new religion. We may reach our technological limits. And our founding values are certainly being washed away.
Our scientific knowledge is still compounding rapidly - because more scientists and engineers are alive today than have lived in the previous history of mankind put together. That statement has been true for at least the last 200 years - and it’s been a gigantic advantage we’ve had over the Romans. But it may stop being true in the next few generations as the population levels off and then declines, as is happening in Japan, Europe, China, and most of the developed world. It’s compounded by the fact that U.S. universities aren’t graduating Ph.D.s in engineering, mathematics, and physics so much as in gender studies, sociology, English, and J.D.s in law. As it degrades, the U.S. will not only draw in fewer enterprising foreigners, it will export its more competent natives.
My solution to America’s decline and fall? The solution for declining civilizations is less command and control, less centralization, and less legal and regulatory complexity. And more entrepreneurship, free minds, and radically free markets. Unfortunately, although a few might agree with that, it’s not going to happen. Not even if most people agree.
Why? Because there are immense governmental institutions that exist, with many millions of employees - at least 20 million in the U.S. And many tens of millions more in their families and throughout the private sector that depend on them. And many tens of millions more that rely directly on the state for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other direct payments. And millions more associated with quasi-state institutions like NGOs, think tanks, law firms, lobbying groups, and the like. The parasitic mechanism of the state has become key to their survival. Even if many in their ranks see the dysfunction now planted in America, they’re hardly going to break their own well-filled rice bowls.
Every institution, like every living thing from an amoeba on up, has one thing in common: they all obey a prime directive - survive! They will try to do so at any cost to society at large. They intuitively know that, as a corollary, you either grow or you die. So you’re not going to see any dysfunctional organization dissolve itself. It’ll keep trying to grow until it self-destructs or an outside force destroys it. Beyond a certain stage, any serious reform is impossible. In the case of the U.S., it’s now host to a completely inoperable cancer, as the government and its satellites grow faster than ever, while the productive economy contracts.
The second law of thermodynamics is a concept of physics, but it has applications in most areas of human action, including what’s been called "imperial overstretch" - the point where the resources gained from growing is less than the energy expended in the process. Rome ran up against imperial overstretch. So did Alexander, Napoleon, and Hitler. The Spanish, French, British, and Soviet empires all did as well. It’s a natural thing with all living organisms, to try to grow until they can’t grow any further, until their energy expenditures exceed their inputs, and/or they’re too large and complex to be controllable, at which point they either rot from within or fall to external predators. It’s as though the Peter Principle applies to all of nature: everything rises to its level of incompetence, at which point it becomes vulnerable.
But does it really matter if the U.S. declines? It’s already morphed from America - which we all loved - into something else. And it’s morphing even more in the wrong direction, at an accelerating rate, as did Rome. The U.S. is declining in all the areas I’ve touched on. But it’s not unique; it’s following the course of all states and all things.
Rome was arrogant and thought it was unique, the center of the world, and eternal. Just like the U.S. Or China, for that matter.
Rome was corrupt; it departed from the values that made it great and so deserved to collapse. The U.S. is increasingly corrupt. That’s completely predictable, for exactly the reason Tacitus cited - a profusion of laws. In market-based systems, corruption is rare and occasional. But in large, complex, politically based systems, it’s not only commonplace, it’s salubrious, because it allows workarounds. Corruption becomes like an oxygen tank to an emphysema victim - awkward but needed. Rulers, however, never attempt to cure the underlying disease by simplifying the complex systems they’ve built. Instead they pass more laws, making the system ever more like a Rube Goldberg machine, with even more complexities and inefficiencies. That’s always counterproductive, since compounded complexity makes the eventual collapse even worse. And harder to recover from. And more nearly inevitable.
Conclusion: So what’s your takeaway from all this, assuming you agree with my thinking? There are several possibilities to consider, based on what we know about Rome.
One is that you stay put as civilization declines around you and barbarians - of whatever kind - take over. That may be your only, or best, option—perhaps because of your age or financial circumstances or family obligations. If so, it nonetheless may be a mistake to stay in Detroit or Chicago, because there could be easy and much better alternatives. We have evidence that life in parts of the Roman Empire - parts of rural Portugal and Mauretania, for instance - actually improved even as things were collapsing in Italy, Britain, and Gaul, largely because the taxation and regulation infrastructures collapsed, but the roads, aqueducts, and cities stayed intact. So you might improve your own situation considerably just by moving down the road a bit.
A second possibility is that you consider what Priscus and Salvian said and get away from the storm’s epicenter by leaving the empire.
A third is more philosophical: you simply recognize that the rise and fall of societies has been going on since Day One. Don’t be too stressed by mega events. Life isn’t just full of problems: it is problems. We’re looking at a giant crisis, but a crisis is a combination of both danger and opportunity. Look at the bright side while you try to dodge the negative effects. See it as an adventure, an education, and even free entertainment.
I hope seeing America reflected in the distant mirror of Ancient Rome helps to put things in perspective"
"The Trouble With Most People..."
"Kaufman thought his public health students at the Kennesaw State University might know more than high schoolers. During the same week, he conducted an ad hoc survey in class, “How many of you believe the American dream is dead?” He asked his class of about 25 students. “Ninety percent raised their hands,” said Kaufman. “I was just blown away.”
He asked his college students what the American dream was. Not getting an answer, he defined it for them, “The American dream is, in this country, if you work hard, you sacrifice, and you never quit, you will find some type of success in your life.” After giving the students his definition, he tried again, “How many of you still believe the American dream is dead?” Still, 90 percent raised their hands.
“If you believe the American dream is dead in this country, why are you sitting in a college classroom?” he asked. The class was silent. Students looked shocked, and one said he hadn’t thought about that."
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"Back when I taught at UCLA, I was constantly amazed at how little so many students knew. Finally, I could no longer restrain myself from asking a student the question that had long puzzled me: ''What were you doing for the last 12 years before you got here?''
- Thomas Sowell
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"The problem isn't that Johnny can't read.
The problem isn't even that Johnny can't think.
The problem is that Johnny doesn't know what thinking is;
he confuses it with feeling."
- Thomas Sowell
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"The trouble with most people is that they think with their
hopes or fears or wishes rather than with their minds."
- Will Durant
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"It takes considerable knowledge just to
realize the extent of your own ignorance."
- Thomas Sowell
"The Web Gallery of Art"
"The Web Gallery of Art"
"The Web Gallery of Art is a virtual museum and searchable database of European painting and sculpture of the Gothic, Renaissance, Baroque, Neoclassicism, Romanticism and Realism periods (1100-1850), currently containing over 52,800 reproductions. It was started in 1996 as a topical site of the Renaissance art, originated in the Italian city-states of the 14th century and spread to other countries in the 15th and 16th centuries. Intending to present Renaissance art as comprehensively as possible, the scope of the collection was later extended to show its Medieval roots as well as its evolution to Baroque and Rococo via Mannerism. More recently the periods of Neoclassicism and Romanticism were also included.
The collection has some of the characteristics of a virtual museum. The experience of the visitors is enhanced by guided tours helping to understand the artistic and historical relationship between different works and artists, by period music of choice in the background and a free postcard service. At the same time the collection serves the visitors' need for a site where various information on art, artists and history can be found together with corresponding pictorial illustrations. Although not a conventional one, the collection is a searchable database supplemented by a glossary containing articles on art terms, relevant historical events, personages, cities, museums and churches.
The Web Gallery of Art is intended to be a free resource of art history primarily for students and teachers. It is a private initiative not related to any museums or art institutions, and not supported financially by any state or corporate sponsors. However, we do our utmost, using authentic literature and advice from professionals, to ensure the quality and authenticity of the content.
We are convinced that such a collection of digital reproductions, containing a balanced mixture of interlinked visual and textual information, can serve multiple purposes. On one hand it can simply be a source of artistic enjoyment; a convenient alternative to visiting a distant museum, or an incentive to do just that. On the other hand, it can serve as a tool for public education both in schools and at home."
For those so inclined, this is a treasure trove of material. Enjoy!
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