2002, "Even Now"
So, we rise from the rubble...
Thursday, December 1, 2022
"A Look to the Heavens"
“What will become of these galaxies? Spiral galaxies NGC 5426 and NGC 5427 are passing dangerously close to each other, but each is likely to survive this collision. Typically when galaxies collide, a large galaxy eats a much smaller galaxy. In this case, however, the two galaxies are quite similar, each being a sprawling spiral with expansive arms and a compact core. As the galaxies advance over the next tens of millions of years, their component stars are unlikely to collide, although new stars will form in the bunching of gas caused by gravitational tides.
Close inspection of the above image taken by the 8-meter Gemini-South Telescope in Chile shows a bridge of material momentarily connecting the two giants. Known collectively as Arp 271, the interacting pair spans about 130,000 light years and lies about 90 million light-years away toward the constellation of Virgo. Recent predictions hold that our Milky Way Galaxy will undergo a similar collision with the neighboring Andromeda Galaxy in a few billion years.”
- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130825.html
Chet Raymo, “Angling For Happiness”
“Angling For Happiness”
by Chet Raymo
“There is a concept in physics called angle of repose. Set an object, a book say, on a plank. Now slowly tip up one end of the plank until the moment when the book just starts to slide. The angle between the plank and the horizontal is the angle of repose, where the component of the gravitational force down the plank becomes greater than the maximum friction force holding the book at rest. Or, in more evocative terms - as I write I am lying on the couch with the laptop in my lap, in perfect repose. If you started tipping up the couch, at some point I'd go sliding into a heap at the bottom. That's the angle of repose, or perhaps it would be more accurate to call it the angle of the end of repose.
This comes to mind because I just spent fifteen minutes on my knees in the yard watching ants excavate a nest in the ground. One by one they scurry out of the hole carrying a tiny grain of sand, which they dump in a ring around the hole. A circular pile. Now if the ants just dumped their burdens at the mouth of the hole, pretty soon the pile would get so steep that the sand grains would slide back into the hole. Instead, the circular ring gets higher and wider, with a slope that never exceeds the angle at which the grains will slip - the angle of repose. Now here's the thing: the ants almost invariably carry their grain to just beyond the top of the pile. If the grain slips, it will slide away from the hole. These tiny ants, hardly bigger than sand grains themselves, understand a little physics in their mysterious instinctive way.
Wallace Stegner has a novel titled "Angle of Repose." It is indeed an evocative phrase. In a job, in a relationship, in life itself, many of us instinctively seek that maximum degree of individual gratification that will satisfy emotional needs without doing violence to our essential repose, and that of those around us - the art of walking close to the edge, the thrill without the spill. Every day in the news we hear of folks - politicians or celebrities - who tipped the plank too far, whose lives went sliding into self-destruction, who failed to grasp, metaphorically speaking, something that a tiny ant instinctively understands.”
- http://blog.sciencemusings.com/
"Tell Yourself..."
“Life will break you. Nobody can protect you from that, and living alone won’t either, for solitude will also break you with its yearning. You have to love. You have to feel. It is the reason you are here on earth. You are here to risk your heart. You are here to be swallowed up. And when it happens that you are broken, or betrayed, or left, or hurt, or death brushes near, let yourself sit by an apple tree and listen to the apples falling all around you in heaps, wasting their sweetness. Tell yourself you tasted as many as you could.”
- Louise Erdrich
"Food Products Are Now 125% More Expensive At Walmart"
Full screen recommended.
"Food Products Are Now 125% More Expensive At Walmart"
by Epic Economist
"If you usually go grocery shopping at Walmart to save money – we’re sorry to break it to you but you’re not saving as much as you think. By now, you probably already noticed that grocery prices are on the rise in each and every store. But a new report reveals that that’s especially true at Walmart, despite its low-price promise. The editorial team at Trading Pedia analyzed the price increases of 34 grocery items at Walmart over the past two years, and they found that prices on most items have significantly surged, with many of them soaring by more than 100%. No wonder why, in October, roughly 90% of Americans said they are worried about the rampant cost of food, a separate survey found. And yet, we’re being told to expect a brand new wave of food inflation in early 2023, as the compounding effect of lower food production and supply chain challenges further exacerbate the cost of living crisis in the U.S.
Brian McColl, a financial analyst at TradingPedia, crunched the numbers for the most common foods sold at the stores of the world’s biggest retailer, and the results he and his team found were quite shocking. The analysis found that over the past two years, the retail giant charged 31% more for a package of chicken breasts, while a package of 18 eggs costs 126% more, and a gallon of milk soared in price by 150%. The dairy and eggs category saw the biggest jump, at an average increase of 70%. Sweet onions also saw a dramatic increase of 165% while an eight-pack of Pepsi shot up by 67% compared to 2020 prices. On average, the price of Walmart's meat and seafood rose by 22% while vegetables rose by 29%. Olive oil prices grew 48%, and tomato sauce saw a 57% surge.
On top of all that, a recent viral video showed a Walmart employee replacing the cost of salad dressing at the chain superstore from $2.24 to $7.88, an increase of more than 350%. A similar report by retail analysts at JP Morgan found that in the last quarter, Walmart raised prices the most among top food retailers. “
The rising prices at Walmart’s stores are having a major impact on its customers’ grocery bills. And in recent statements, the company’s executives said that "double-digit" food inflation has hurt sales in other areas of its superstores — and will continue to do so for the rest of this year. The company said earnings per share for its fiscal 2023 will fall about 11% to 13%, coming in below the latest Wall Street estimates.
So at the end of the day, the retailer’s bottom line is being hurt, too. Food retailers typically pass along the price hikes imposed by food manufacturers. But in a year when big names, such as Kraft Heinz, JBS, Tyson Foods, and Mondelez, announced price increases between 30% to 70% in a wide range of products, there’s only so much retailers can do to keep prices low.
All of this bad news are coming at a time when about 90% of Americans are already concerned about food prices, according to a survey conducted by The Harris Poll on behalf of Alpha Foods. With no end in sight to increasing food prices, millions of families are already having to skip meals and take on debt to cover their basic necessities. Another dark winter is about to begin, and all signs suggest that 2023 will be a year of severe economic pain all over the nation."
"We Need to Talk About Ukraine"
"We Need to Talk About Ukraine"
by Jim Rickards
"There’s plenty to discuss, from the Fed to inflation to the supply chain issues. But we need to talk about Ukraine. Yes, that’s right. We need to talk about Ukraine. That’s because nothing is more important in the world right now. Why? Because Ukraine is the spider in the spider web of the global economy.
Ukraine affects geopolitics, geo-economics, energy and food shortages, supply chains and the desire of many countries to escape U.S. dollar hegemony. It may even potentially involve nuclear war. That’s why the United States has taken such a strong post-Cold War interest in Ukraine — a region of Eastern Europe no American president would risk a drop of American blood over until the Berlin Wall fell.
Russian success in Ukraine would lead to a new international monetary system through its allies in the BRICS+, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union. On the flip side, Russian failure in Ukraine would lead to a strengthened world economic order with the U.S. firmly in charge. NATO would be ascendant. Where things stand today, either outcome is still possible. Much will depend upon the next few months. With that as background, let’s dive into the analysis…
First, a note on sourcing. Winston Churchill famously said, “In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies.” That was true in World War II, and it’s no less true today. The U.S., U.K. and EU will lie. So will Ukraine. So will Russia. That’s our starting place in any analysis. If I read something in The New York Times. I can be quite certain it’s a lie. That’s to be expected. The New York Times is nothing more than a channel for CIA and MI6 deception.
Still, lies are valuable. They reveal what the sources are really concerned about. If you weren’t concerned about something, why bother to lie about it? Based on the lie, you can know what matters. From there, you can use inferential methods to assume the topic of the lie is important and the opposite of the lie is probably true. You can update your inference with what’s called all-source fusion; basically, using other intelligence sources to tweak the initial inference in one direction or another. If enough evidence accumulates, you quickly get to a point where you can give a high probability to a certain state of affairs, even if it’s quite different from what the media are telling you.
All-source fusion can include comments from retired military and intelligence officers who have good contacts among former colleagues and who are not afraid to speak the truth because their careers are no longer at risk. It can also include informed sources from neutral countries like Switzerland, and former U.N. peacekeepers who were on the front lines in the Donbas region of Ukraine.
Sometimes we even gain insights from what’s called pocket litter. These are scraps of paper or other objects from the clothing of prisoners or casualties that may have maps, phone numbers, notes and other commentaries on the war that provide insights not otherwise available. But pocket litter can be used for counterintelligence. Sometimes a body is left with fake maps and battle plans in the jacket pockets intended to be discovered by the enemy.
Now you see why intelligence work is referred to as the wilderness of mirrors. You can’t trust anything to be as it appears. Having said all that, read on. I believe that what follows is the best available analysis of the war in Ukraine, based on the best available evidence. It may be a bit of “inside baseball” for the introductory reader, but everyone needs to catch up before it’s too late.
Here’s the mainstream narrative:The status of the war in Ukraine is best understood as a competition between the narrative and reality. The narrative consists of what you hear from mainstream media, the White House, the Pentagon and official sources in the U.K., France, Germany and both EU and NATO headquarters in Brussels. The reality consists of what’s actually going on based on the best available sources. Let’s consider the narrative first.
According to the White House, EU and NATO, things are going relatively well for Ukraine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have advanced in eastern Ukraine along a line that runs parallel to the Russian fortified lines between Donetsk and Luhansk. Ukraine has also reoccupied the regional capital of Kherson, which lies strategically on the Dnieper River, and is Kyiv’s main access to the Black Sea and international trade.
Based on these advances, the narrative says that Russia is in retreat, Russian troops are demoralized, Putin is in jeopardy of being replaced and complete victory for Ukraine is just a matter of time. The narrative is then used as a basis for increased financial aid from the United States (over $60 billion and growing) and increased weapons shipments from NATO members. President Zelenskyy touts these accomplishments in his customary green T-shirt on video presentations to the U.N., G20 and other international audiences.
Here’s the reality…The actual situation on the battlefield is almost completely at odds with the narrative. Ukraine did make advances in the east, but they were against lightly defended Russian positions on or near open terrain. The Russians organized an orderly retreat to fortified lines and let the Ukrainians have the open land. Russia withdrew from Kherson because they regarded it as a nonstrategic salient.
Russia regarded Kherson as a nonstrategic salient. The Russians withdrew to the east bank of the Dnieper River while allowing Ukrainian troops to reoccupy the center of Kherson. Russia avoided a fight over a city of little strategic value while retaining a chokehold on river traffic from the east bank. The Russians essentially organized an orderly retreat to fortified lines and let the Ukrainians have the open land, which will become a killing field for Russian artillery. Even with that withdrawal, almost all the industrial, technological and natural resource capacity of former Ukraine is in the Donbas now under Russian control.
In the meantime, Russia is now preparing to launch a massive counteroffensive. Russia has completed its 300,000-person mobilization. Over 180,000 of those troops are now deployed behind Russian lines in combat formations. The remaining 120,000 troops will arrive soon. This brings total Russian strength up to about 30 divisions. They are being supplemented with Iranian drones, a major force multiplier. The major objectives of this counteroffensive are Kharkiv in the northeast, Odesa in the southwest, and Zaporizhzhia in the center part of the country on the Dnieper River.
Completion of these missions will give Russia control of the entire coast from the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. It will also give Russia control of the Dnieper River and the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Russia will incorporate all of this territory into the Russian Federation and will likely move further into Moldova to reunite with a pro-Russian corridor called Transnistria with its capital in Tiraspol. At that point, Russian strategic objectives will be complete. Ukraine will be left as a rump state between Kyiv and Lviv.
Ukrainian officials are preparing for a brutal winter ahead by evacuating civilians from cities likely to be the scene of new battles with Russian troops. These Ukrainian expectations seem at odds with the mainstream narrative of victorious Ukrainians on the offensive against demoralized Russian troops.
Meanwhile, AFU strength has been greatly diminished due to high casualty rates. Meanwhile, advanced weapons supplied to the AFU will be of little use because the AFU has not been trained to use them and there are logistical obstacles to moving them to the front lines. Many so-called Ukrainian troops are actually Polish forces in Ukrainian uniforms. Again, Russian forces are well-rested and well-supplied, and are being supplemented with Iranian drones, a major force multiplier.
The economic impact of these developments is momentous. Biden has vowed that the sanctions will not be lifted until Russia leaves Ukraine. But Russia is not leaving. This implies that sanctions will continue indefinitely. The sanctions have had little economic impact on Russia. But the effect on Europe and the U.S. has been devastating including energy shortages, inflation and supply chain disruption. These effects will persist and cause the EU and U.S. to fall into a severe recession in the first half of 2023. These effects will persist and cause the EU and U.S. to fall into a severe recession in the first half of 2023.
The dollar will remain strong for reasons independent of the war in Ukraine, having to do with a growing global liquidity crisis. Stocks will fall significantly due to recessionary conditions. Bonds will perform well as interest rates decline alongside economic decline. Gold will remain strong as more countries look for ways to avoid U.S. economic sanctions and as central banks diversify away from dollars toward gold. Brace yourself for more volatility as we head toward the winter months. Moving cash to the sidelines is a prudent thing to do."
"Winter is Coming"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 12/1/22:
"Winter is Coming"
"Winter is coming. This has tremendous meaning right now, because things are about to get very cold. The climate is going to change and business is going to freeze over."
Comments here:
"Economy: Things Just Went From Bad To Much Worse... And You Haven't Seen Anything Yet!"
Gregory Mannarino, PM 12/1/22:
"Economy: Things Just Went From Bad To Much Worse...
And You Haven't Seen Anything Yet!"
Comments here:
"The Great Enemy..."
"In a society in which nearly everybody is dominated by somebody else's mind or by a disembodied mind, it becomes increasingly difficult to learn the truth about the activities of governments and corporations, about the quality or value of products, or about the health of one's own place and economy.
In such a society, also, our private economies will depend less and less upon the private ownership of real, usable property, and more and more upon property that is institutional and abstract, beyond individual control, such as money, insurance policies, certificates of deposit, stocks, and shares. And as our private economies become more abstract, the mutual, free helps and pleasures of family and community life will be supplanted by a kind of displaced or placeless citizenship and by commerce with impersonal and self-interested suppliers...
Thus, although we are not slaves in name, and cannot be carried to market and sold as somebody else's legal chattels, we are free only within narrow limits. For all our talk about liberation and personal autonomy, there are few choices that we are free to make. What would be the point, for example, if a majority of our people decided to be self-employed?
The great enemy of freedom is the alignment of political power with wealth. This alignment destroys the commonwealth - that is, the natural wealth of localities and the local economies of household, neighborhood, and community - and so destroys democracy, of which the commonwealth is the foundation and practical means."
- Wendell Berry,
"The Art of the Commonplace: The Agrarian Essays"
"Marauding Bands Of Looters Are Stealing Billions Of Dollars Worth Of Merchandise As America Descends Into Lawlessness"
"Marauding Bands Of Looters Are Stealing Billions Of Dollars
Worth Of Merchandise As America Descends Into Lawlessness"
by Michael Snyder
"Three years ago, I bet that 99 percent of my readers had never heard of ORC. Of course by now almost everyone knows that ORC stands for “organized retail crime”, and it is prompting retailers to permanently shut down stores all over the nation. Right now, retail theft is happening from coast to coast on a scale that we have never seen in our entire history. Marauding bands of looters are barging into stores, grabbing as much merchandise as they can possibly carry, and then loading it into their vehicles. Online marketplaces make it easier than ever to turn stolen goods into cash, and at this point organized retail crime has become a multi-billion dollar business. As I have repeatedly warned my readers, America is descending into lawlessness. The thin veneer of civilization that we all depend upon on a daily basis is rapidly disappearing, and if we stay on this path our society will soon be completely unrecognizable.
Every year, organized retail crime gets even worse. According to Fox Business, the number of ORC incidents in 2021 was 26.5 percent higher than in 2020…"ORC incidents soared 26.5% on average in 2021, with 81.2% of retailers surveyed reporting “somewhat more” or “much more” ORC-associated aggression and violence year-over-year, according to the survey."
Of course things are even worse here in 2022, and this is particularly true in states where shoplifting laws are very soft. For example, in Portland some stores are often victimized “more than once a day”…"Some of the hot items are perfumes and expensive handbags. Often, stores are victimized daily and sometimes more than once a day. A local pastor whose window looks out on the local Nike store says he sees thieves running out of the store with their arms full of stolen stuff all the time. And the excellent KGW-TV story makes the point that this stolen stuff is not to feed hungry children. It is organized theft. The stuff gets sold online and in flea markets."
Needless to say, it is almost impossible to run a profitable business in such an environment, and many store owners are throwing in the towel. In recent days, one store owner in Portland made headline news all over the nation by posting a note that explained exactly why the store is being closed…"A Portland, Oregon, clothing shop permanently shut down this month after facing a string of break-ins that has left the store financially gutted, according to a note posted to the front of the store.
“Our city is in peril,” a printed note posted on Rains PDX store reads, according to KATU2. “Small businesses (and large) cannot sustain doing business, in our city’s current state. We have no protection, or recourse, against the criminal behavior that goes unpunished. Do not be fooled into thinking that insurance companies cover losses. We have sustained 15 break-ins … we have not received any financial reimbursement since the 3rd.”
Sadly, organized retail crime is not just plaguing cities on the west coast. This is truly a national phenomenon, and large retail chains are losing giant mountains of money because of it. In fact, Target recently caused quite a stir when it admitted that organized retail crime accounts for most of the 400 million dollars that it has lost from shoplifting over the past year…
"Shoplifting is such a big problem, that last week, when officials from Target were explaining why the company’s profit fell by 50% in the third quarter, they mentioned shoplifting as a contributing cause. Target Chief Growth Officer Christina Hennington said Target shoplifting has jumped about 50% year over year. Target estimates shoplifting has cost the retailer $400 million and most of that, Hennington said, has come from organized retail theft."
If things are already this bad, what will happen when economic conditions in this country really start deteriorating in 2023 and beyond? The more desperate people become, the worse organized retail crime will get. At this point, thievery has reached such epic proportions that some retailers are actually considering locking up all of their merchandise…"In September, on an earnings call with investors, Rite Aid’s executive vice president of retail, Andre Persaud, floated an idea to improve the chain’s performance in New York City: turn the drugstore into one giant vending machine in order to fight shoplifting. “We’re looking at literally putting everything behind showcases to ensure the products are there for customers to buy,” Persaud said."
Does that sound familiar? Many big-city pharmacy chains are halfway there, with plexiglass cases that have mushroomed over even low-priced household goods like shampoo and deodorant—to say nothing of laundry detergent, razor blades, and baby formula. It’s like shopping at a pharmacy 100 years ago, with a white-aproned clerk pushing around a ladder to grab your tinctures and tonics, except now it’s a minimum-wage cashier with a key ring. These days, you press a red button and a loudspeaker tells the store that you have a foot fungus. In July, a Manhattan Duane Reade made international news when it placed a can of Spam—Spam!—in a theft-deterrent plastic case.
If this trend catches on, the way that we shop could change forever. The days of just going in and quickly gathering what you need could soon be gone permanently. And it is all because our society is becoming completely and utterly lawless.
Earlier today, I was deeply saddened to read about a particularly horrific crime that happened in Philadelphia on the day after Thanksgiving…"A Philadelphia parking authority officer was shot in the head in broad daylight by a thug in the City of Brotherly Love last Friday. The suspect was caught on a surveillance camera walking up behind the 37-year-old male parking official and shooting him in the head at point-blank range at 3.50pm on the 4500 block Frankford Avenue the day after Thanksgiving. The officer, who was on duty at the time of the crime, is seen in video footage immediately collapsing onto the sidewalk before help arrives."
The fabric of our society is coming apart at the seams all around us, but most people don’t seem to care. Most people are just so self-obsessed that they can’t even see that our society is rotting and decaying at a truly frightening pace. A highly civilized society is extremely difficult to create, but it is very easy to lose. Unfortunately, most Americans are not going to realize this until it is far too late."
"Economic Market Snapshot 12/1/22"
"Economic Market Snapshot 12/1/22"
Market Data Center, Live Updates:
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Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
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Your guide:
Gregory Mannarino, AM 112/1/22:
"Alert! The MMRI Craters! 10 Year Yield Drops!
Dollar Falls! Very Important Updates!"
Comments here:
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A comprehensive, essential daily read.
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Financial Stress Index
"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."
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Job cuts and much more.
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Commentary, highly recommended:
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"The more I see of the monied classes,
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
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Oh yeah... beyond words. Any I know anyway...
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And now... The End Game...
"Strange Prices At Kroger! This Is Crazy! What's Coming?"
Full screen recommended.
Adventures with Danno, 12/1/22:
"Strange Prices At Kroger! This Is Crazy! What's Coming?"
"In today's vlog we are at Kroger, and are noticing very strange prices! We are here to check out skyrocketing prices, and the empty shelves situation! It's getting rough out here as stores seem to be struggling with getting products!"
Comments here:
Wednesday, November 30, 2022
"The FED Supercharges Markets Today As Millions Wait For Relief Checks To Survive"
Jeremiah Babe, 11/30/22:
"The FED Supercharges Markets Today As
Millions Wait For Relief Checks To Survive"
Comments here:
"China’s People Go Absolutely Insane As Grocery Stores Run Out Of Food Right Now"
Full screen recommended.
"China’s People Go Absolutely Insane As
Grocery Stores Run Out Of Food Right Now"
by Epic Economist
"It is happening again. A massive panic buying wave is emptying supermarket shelves in China as fears of new lockdowns reignite. Local news outlets are reporting the worst outbreak since March 2020, which is prompting authorities to improvise isolation centers and reintroduce stay-at-home mandates and travel bans. Residents are getting increasingly fed up with the government’s zero-tolerance policy. They’ve been rushing to stockpile food and essential supplies in a repeat of scenes last seen during the peak of the pandemic. Many grocery stores have already run out of food by now. Meanwhile, farmers are seeing tons of fruits and vegetables rot because movement restrictions don’t allow them to deliver their produce to food distribution centers and stores. According to Bloomberg, growers are worried this will cause even worse food shortages in the coming months. The situation is being described as pure chaos. In a rare display of defiance, the Chinese people are taking their frustration with the draconian measures to the streets, and many of them seem to be reaching their breaking point
The capital of China is seeing the biggest spike in virus cases since 2020, and residents are afraid that prolonged lockdowns will start to be put in place again as Chinese authorities rush to build improvised quarantine centers and field hospitals in gymnasiums, exhibition centers, and other large, open indoor spaces. The locations have become known for overcrowding, poor sanitation, scarce food supplies, and lights that stay on for 24 hours.
Bloomberg reports that unusually large numbers of shoppers have been leaving supermarket shelves bare as they attempt to stockpile food and other everyday necessities before they’re locked in their compounds indefinitely. Several grocery delivery services have reached capacity given that hundreds of local grocery stores already ran out of food, Bloomberg noted. “Everyone is stocking up on food, so there’s definitely a jump-on-the-bandwagon kind of feeling,” one resident wrote on social media Weibo.
Even small convenience stores are seeing supplies being depleted at a stunning pace. “Normally it would be around 20 people in one store, but last night there were about 60-70,” a resident named Li wrote on the platform.The sudden spike in consumer demand combined with a worker shortage left some customers unable to place orders for food and supplies on popular online grocery services such as Alibaba's Freshippo and Meituan Maicai.
Online, some Chinese users revealed there were delivery workers whose compounds were locked down, worsening the worker shortage. In an interview with AFP News, delivery workers said they are exhausted, underpaid, and thoroughly fed up, State media have also reported that hundreds of food producers across China are struggling to send their harvest to processing plants and distribution centers because regional travel bans are preventing drivers to enter rural areas. Last week, one farmer in Shandong “had to bulldoze tens of thousands of kilograms of vegetables because no one could pick them up and transport them to market.”
Meanwhile, consumers are having to pay between 10% and 20% more for vegetables since the end of October. “Food is running out for many families. People have been either locked in their homes or sent to makeshift hospitals,” one Lhasa resident, who identified himself as Sam Wang, said. That’s a tragic situation for millions of Chinese residents, who are reaching their breaking point after almost four years of having their lives constantly disrupted. As more and more cases continue to be recorded, their problems are likely to aggravate in the weeks and months ahead."
"Banks Are Melting Down"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, iAllegedly 11/30/22:
"Banks Are Melting Down"
"The jobs report came out, and things don’t look good. But, that’s just the beginning. Banks are upside down a trillion dollars. Banks are melting down."
Comments here:
"An Inconvenient Truth"
"An Inconvenient Truth"
by Brian Maher
Annapolis, Maryland - "‘Tis is a shame that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change doesn’t follow the science more closely…"At its recent climate confabulation it announced a: Breakthrough agreement to provide “loss and damage” funding for vulnerable countries hit hard by climate disasters. That is, a breakthrough agreement to fleece the United States taxpayer. It is he - and she - whose pocket the United Nations would pick. That is because the United Nations fingers the United States for such disasters, uniquely.
Yet if the United States must shoulder the blame for the world’s “climate disasters,” should it not accept credit for climactic improvements? Satellite data reveals that Arctic Ocean ice has increased mightily since 2018:
More CO2, More Ice: Yet let the record indicate: Carbon dioxide emissions increased measurably through 2018. For example: Our scientific brethren inform us that total global emissions equaled 35.5 billion metric tons in 2015. Total global emissions equaled 36.65 billion tons in 2018. Our scientific brethren further inform us that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations equaled 401 parts per million in 2015. In 2018? Nearly 409 parts per million. Yet Arctic ice went trampolining in 2018 — despite carbon dioxide’s relentless assaults. How can this be?
We ordered our men to ransack the available scientific literature. What did they discover? Here is the short answer: Nobody knows. Here is the long answer - and please pardon the abstruse scientific terminology: Nobody knows.
No More Ice! The Sky Is Falling! “Amateur scientist” Willis Eschenbach: "Since around 1990, people have been talking about how human-emitted CO2 is busily reducing the amount of Arctic sea ice. When it started dropping very fast around 2015, there was talk that we’d passed a “tipping point” from which the Arctic ice would never recover. And over this entire time, predictions of an “ice-free Arctic Ocean” abounded."
But then… around 2018, the Arctic sea ice rebounded. Why did it suddenly start dropping so fast post-2015? Nobody knows. Not one scientist on the planet can tell you. Why the quick turnaround and rebound starting in 2018? Nobody knows. Not one scientist on the planet can tell you. By his own admission, this fellow is not a credentialed authority within the environmental sciences. Yet our men’s ransackings of the scientific literature yielded identical conclusions: Nobody knows.
Maybe the Little Ones Are Responsible: Explanations include shifting wind currents and meteorological phenomena such as “El Nino” and “La Nina.” The English-translated “little boy” and “little girl” wield substantial influence over sea temperatures… so we are told. There is also the sun to consider - we are told it gives off a varying glow.
Meantime, we learn that over half of today’s Arctic glaciers and ice caps failed to exist 3,400–10,000 years ago - or were smaller in size. Yet carbon dioxide concentrations were far less than today’s 410 parts per million. We are informed they hovered between 260–270 parts per million. Yet today’s Arctic ice holds a deeper grip than it did thousands of years past… when carbon dioxide concentrations were nothing against today’s (a nice point to put somewhere). Your editor concedes he commands a rudimentary knowledge of the environmental sciences. Yet he is greater swayed by the natural theory than the carbon dioxide theory.
Carbon Dioxide’s Limited Footprint: Our minions have investigated the literature on carbon dioxide. From them we learn: Carbon dioxide represents a vanishing 0.04% part of Earth’s atmosphere. Imagine - if you will - this atmosphere as 100 cases of one-liter bottles. That is, imagine this atmosphere as 2,400 one-liter bottles. Of those 100 cases, 99 are not greenhouse gasses whatsoever. They are therefore irrelevant to our inquiry. A mere one case of the 100 represents greenhouse gasses. Of the one case that represents greenhouse gasses, merely one bottle of the 24 represents carbon dioxide.
One Shot Glass! Of the one bottle that represents this demon molecule, perhaps 50 milliliters represent mankind’s annual contribution - roughly one shot glass. And so… of our theoretical atmosphere of 2,400 liters, humans contribute perhaps one shot glass of carbon dioxide per year.
Alternately: Analogize the atmosphere to a 100-story building. The human CO2 concentration rises to the linoleum on the ground floor - no higher. Yet the United Nations informs us that this relative trifle is scorching the planet. We request authenticated documentation - chapter, verse, line, letter. Please include the footnotes.
We’re Still Waiting: As we have conceded in the past: It is fully plausible that fuel burning has tinkered Earth’s temperature. But a tinker is not a manipulation. And again we concede the science is… complex. Moreover, that it is beyond our slender comprehension. Yet if Earth’s climate was so exquisitely sensitive to minor carbon dioxide rises… why didn’t it erupt long ago?
Our men inform us this planet has previously endured CO2 levels 25 times or greater than today’s. Yet the match never struck. The catastrophists warn us nonetheless that we will roast if emissions continue - and that they have models in proof of it.
Garbage In, Garbage Out: Yet do these models give true readings? They do not. From a 2020 report by the American Geophysical Union: "The tendency of climate models to overstate warming in the tropical troposphere has long been noted… We focus on the 1979–2014 interval, the maximum span for which all observational products are available…. all 38 models overpredict warming in every target observational analog, in most cases significantly so, and the average differences between models and observations are statistically significant."
All 38 models! Can you believe it? Further razzing comes by way of geophysicist Mr. Allan MacRae: "By the end of 2020, the climate doomsters were proved wrong in their scary climate predictions 48 times. At 50-50 odds for each prediction, that is like flipping a coin 48 times and losing every time! The probability of that being mere random stupidity is one in 281 trillion!…"
The global warming alarmists have a perfect NEGATIVE predictive track record - they have been 100% wrong about every scary climate prediction - so nobody should continue to believe them.
When the UN Will Admit It Might Be Wrong: Even the catastrophists themselves are beginning to cough behind their hands, disappointedly. They concede they were yelling wolf. Science magazine: "The climate models that help them project the future have grown a little too alarmist. Many of the world’s leading models are now projecting warming rates that most scientists, including the modelmakers themselves, believe are implausibly fast."
The United Nations nonetheless fingers the United States for the “climate disasters” that besiege the world. Yet if the United States wields such vast influence over the world’s climate… Should the UN not then credit the United States for the expanding Arctic ice? Here is precisely when you can expect it: When the United States taxpayer is fully fleeced… or when hell freezes over… Whichever comes first."
"A Look to the Heavens"
“Over 400,000 light years across NGC 6872 is an enormous spiral galaxy, at least 4 times the size of our own very large Milky Way. About 200 million light-years distant, toward the southern constellation Pavo, the Peacock, the remarkable galaxy’s stretched out shape is due to its ongoing gravitational interaction, likely leading to an eventual merger, with the nearby smaller galaxy IC 4970. IC 4970 is seen just below and right of the giant galaxy’s core in this cosmic color portrait from the 8 meter Gemini South telescope in Chile.
The idea to image this titanic galaxy collision comes from a winning contest essay submitted last year to the Gemini Observatory by the Sydney Girls High School Astronomy Club. In addition to inspirational aspects and aesthetics, club members argued that a color image would be more than just a pretty picture. In their winning essay they noted that “If enough color data is obtained in the image it may reveal easily accessible information about the different populations of stars, star formation, relative rate of star formation due to the interaction, and the extent of dust and gas present in these galaxies.”
"What Foolish Forgetfulness..."
“You live as if you were destined to live forever, no thought of your frailty ever enters your head, of how much time has already gone by you take no heed. You squander time as if you drew from a full and abundant supply, so all the while that day which you bestow on some person or thing is perhaps your last. You have all the fears of mortals and all the desires of immortals… What foolish forgetfulness of mortality to defer wise resolutions to the fiftieth or sixtieth year, and to intend to begin life at a point to which few have attained.”
- Denis Diderot
The Poet: William Stafford, ”Today”
”Today”
“The ordinary miracles begin. Somewhere
a signal arrives: “Now,” and the rays
come down. A tomorrow has come. Open
your hands, lift them: morning rings
all the doorbells; porches are cells for prayer.
Religion has touched your throat. Not the same now,
you could close your eyes and go on full of light.
And it is already begun, the chord
that will shiver glass, the song full of time
bending above us. Outside, a sign:
a bird intervenes; the wings tell the air,
“Be warm.” No one is out there, but a giant
has passed through town, widening streets, touching
the ground, shouldering away the stars.”
- William Stafford
Chet Raymo, "As Time Goes By"
"As Time Goes By"
by Chet Raymo
"Is time something that is defined by the ticking of a cosmic clock, God's wristwatch say? Time doesn't exist except for the current tick. The past is irretrievably gone. The future does not yet exist. Consciousness is awareness of a moment. Or is time a dimension like space? We move through time as we move through space. The past is still there; we're just not there anymore. The future exists; we'll get there. We experience time as we experience space, say, by looking out the window of a moving train. Or is time…
Physicists and philosophers have been debating these questions since the pre-Socratics. Plato. Newton. Einstein. Most recently, Lee Smolin. Without resolution. What makes the question so difficult, it seems to me, is that time is inextricably tied up with consciousness. We won't understand time until we understand consciousness, and vice versa. So far, consciousness is a mystery, in spite of books with titles like "Consciousness Explained". Will consciousness be explained? Can consciousness be explained? If so, will it require a conceptual breakthrough of revolutionary proportions? Or is the Darwinian/material paradigm enough? Are we in for an insight, or for a surprise?
As I sit here at my desk under the hill, looking out at a vast panorama of earth, sea and sky, filled, it would seem, infinitely full of detail, so full that my awareness can only skim the surface, I have that uneasy sense that it's going to be damnably difficult to extract consciousness, as a thing, from the universe in its totality. I think of that word "entanglement," from quantum theory, and I wonder to what extent consciousness is entangled, perhaps even with past and future.
Who knows? Perhaps consciousness, or what I think of as my consciousness, is just a slice of cosmic consciousness, in the same way that the present is a slice of cosmic time. As a good Ockhamist, I am loathe to needlessly multiply hypotheses. But time will tell. Or consciousness will tell. Or something.”
"The Very Idea..."
"In the last few years, the very idea of telling the truth, the whole truth,
and nothing but the truth is dredged up only as a final resort when the
alternative options of deception, threat and bribery have all been exhausted."
- Michael Musto
Judge Napolitano, "Scott Ritter - Ukraine-Russia War Update"
Full screen recommended.
Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 11/30/22
"Scott Ritter - Ukraine-Russia War Update"
"Plato's Cave"
Full screen recommended.
"Plato's Cave"
by Phil Williams
Orson Welles’s psychedelic 1973 adaptation of Plato’s timeless allegory of the cave and Kafka’s “Before the Law,” two parables of the human condition.
"It is the task of the enlightened not only to ascend to learning and to see the good but to be willing to descend again to those prisoners and to share their troubles and their honors, whether they are worth having or not. And this they must do, even with the prospect of death."
– Plato’s "Republic", Book 7
"Plato’s allegory of the cave thought-experiment ponders the experience of prisoners shackled in a cave from birth, only able to see the shadows of objects projected onto a wall. The text then traces the journey of a prisoner who is set free from the cave, given the opportunity to experience reality in the glow of the Sun and, upon returning to the cave, is met with laughter by the other prisoners, who think him a fool for struggling to readjust to his old existence. A simple story yielding complex commentaries on the nature of reality and wisdom, Plato’s timeless allegory is built into the foundations of modern philosophy and, more than two millennia later, still stirs debate. Carried by a rich narration from Orson Welles, this rarely seen 1973 animated adaptation of Plato’s words populates the tale with haunting human figures, bringing retro-surreal life to the parable."
Comments here:
"Not Knowing..."
“Not knowing you can’t do something
is sometimes all it takes to do it.”
- Ally Carter
Greg Hunter, "War Cycle Heats Up & Markets Tank in 2023"
"War Cycle Heats Up & Markets Tank in 2023"
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
"Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner said, back in September, the markets would sink and then go back up. Both calls happened right on time. What does Nenner see now? Nenner says, “Two days ago, we started to take profits again. So, we are not that bullish. The public we have now do not understand bear markets. They don’t understand that we can have rallies of 15% to 20%, and then it can go down again. So, we took profit and we are mostly in cash again. We are long in the bond market for a change because it looks like inflation is going to moderate for a little bit. We are waiting for the gold cycles to bottom, and we are getting very close, but the bull market in gold will come, but it’s still going to take a few more weeks.”
So, are interest rates on the way down? Nenner says, “Yes, but for very short term. You might remember our interest rate cycles bottomed, and the cycle is up for the next 30 years. I expect interest rates to go back to where they were in the early 1980’s. Longer term interest rates are going much higher. Right now, we have a bounce because commodities are weaker, and I think they will be weak until around February. This is probably why the Fed is not going to talk as aggressive as they were talking. This is still temporary and interest rates are still going to go much higher in the future.”
Nenner also says, “Mortgage interest rates will go to the 8% to 9% range in 2023. . . .and the stock market will go down by about 50%.”
Nenner says look for inflation to moderate for the next few months but look out in 2023. Nenner predicts, “Beware because once inflation raises its head, it is very difficult to get it back into the box. We could go down to 6% or 6.5% inflation, but also the inflation cycle just started, and we are going to see much higher inflation.”
On the war cycle, Nenner has been predicting this “war cycle will really heat up in 2023.” He’s convinced all the signs say he’s going to be right. Nenner says, “I don’t think the inflation has anything to do with the war in Ukraine, but I think in the middle of next year, we have war cycles bottoming. I think we are in for a really big mess because it doesn’t seem like anybody is ruling any country anymore, even China. This may be the reason why gold and silver are going to take off. If there are shortages, then the inflation will go through the roof.” There is much more in the 36 min. interview.
Join Greg Hunter on Rumble as he goes One-on-One
with renowned cycle analyst and financial expert Charles Nenner:
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