“'Transitory' Inflation?"

“'Transitory' Inflation?"

by Brian Maher

"The United States Department of Labor informs us: September consumer prices trampolined to the highest annual level in 13 years... to 5.4%. Energy prices are 1.3% costlier - and nearly 25% costlier since September last. Eating costs 0.9% more since last month - and 4.6% for the year. Eggs and various meats are 10.5% dearer this year. Specific meats - beef - are 17.6% dearer this year.

If it is explanation you seek, Mr. Brian Crosby of Traub Capital Partners is the man you want: "Consumer prices continue to rise, particularly as demand driven by people returning to post-vaccination life outstrips supply that is increasingly constrained by logistics and labor shortages. Escalating prices are so extravagant, the Social Security Administration is increasing its cost-of-living adjustment 5.9% next year. That is its largest annual increase in nearly 40 years. For the past 10, 1.65% has been about par.

Could Inflation Actually Be 14%? We hadn’t the heart to consult Mr. John Williams’ ShadowStats site. That is because this fellow scatters the statistical fogs — the statistical fogs government throws up to conceal true inflation. We feared a true accounting would fluster us, wobble us and diminish our already diminished spirits.

We therefore assigned a minion the task. From him, by way of Mr. Williams, we learn: The official rate runs to 5.4%, it is true. Yet if government number-manglers gauged inflation as they did in 1990, the true inflation rate goes at 9%. And if they gauged inflation by 1980’s rules? Consumer inflation races to a galloping and dollar-devouring 14% - approximately.

The Price of Victory: In 1981, still going by 1980’s rules, inflation ran to 15%. To scotch the inflationary menace, Paul Volcker manhandled the federal funds rate to an astounding 20%. He won his war, he vanquished his Hitler… though at horrific cost. The casualty lists were atrocious. The ensuing 1981–82 recession was - in fact - the greatest economic tremble since the Great Depression.

Volcker’s devastating conflict nonetheless cleared the way for subsequent boom years. Now come forward… If John Williams gives the true inflation rate, today’s 14% rate approaches 1981’s 15%.

What if Inflation Isn’t “Transitory”? Unlike 1981… today’s federal funds rate squats near zero. There it will likely remain deep into calendar year 2022. A question then dangles in the air: If inflation does not prove “transitory”... as Mr. Powell believes it will… and gallops on and on instead… how will he get his hands on it? "The key risk here is that shortages persist for longer than we anticipate and prices rise more substantially," warns Capital Economics’ Neil Shearing. "We prepare for probabilities and eventualities,” says JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon. “And,” he continues, “one of those probabilities is that [inflation] might go higher than people think.”

Dissension in the Ranks: Even Federal Reserve officials are beginning to cough behind their hands, anxiously, nervously. They begin to harbor severe doubts concerning the “transitory” theory. For example, Mr. Raphael Bostic, base commander of the Federal Reserve’s Atlanta garrison: "It is becoming increasingly clear that the feature of this episode that has animated price pressures - mainly the intense and widespread supply chain disruptions - will not be brief. Data from multiple sources point to these lasting longer than most initially thought. By this definition, then, the forces are not transitory."

We hazard the business would require a severe manipulation of the federal funds rate - upward. But of course our friend Powell cannot severely manipulate the federal funds rate upward.

Trapped at Zero: Even a return to historically average rates - perhaps 5% - would send the economy heaping down, wrecked and collapsed. Mr. Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice: "The problem, however, between today and the 1970s is the massive debt and leverage levels in the U.S. economy. Thus, any significant rise in rates almost immediately leads to recessionary spats in the economy."

And a 20% rate? The very heavens would fall. We must also consider long-term rates... The United States groans under debts multiple times 1981’s debts. Servicing today’s $29 trillion debt would fracture the spine. It is only endurable now because of rates that scarcely register.

Hobson’s Choice: But inflation cannot be allowed to go amok, to trample its way through the dollar. What will Mr. Powell do if inflation endures? He may find himself hanging from the hooks of a mighty dilemma… Choke inflation… which will choke the economy... or let inflation go... which will flatten the dollar… and ultimately the economy. But we must consider this one possibility: Deeply entrenched economic forces may take this poor fellow down from his pointy hook…

A Different World: The aforesaid Lance Roberts: "Interest rates rose during three previous periods in history. During the economic/inflationary spike in the early 1860s and again during the “Golden Age” from 1900–1929. The most recent period was during the prolonged manufacturing cycle in the 1950s and ’60s. That cycle followed the end of World War II where the U.S. was the global manufacturing epicenter…

Today, the U.S. is no longer the manufacturing epicenter of the world. Labor and capital flow to the lowest-cost providers to effectively export inflation from the U.S., and deflation gets imported. Technology and productivity gains ultimately suppress labor and wage growth rates over time…"

This is not the situation presently obtaining: During the current period, real economic growth remains lackluster. In addition, real unemployment remains high, with millions of individuals simply no longer counted or resorting to part-time work to make ends meet...

One crucial difference is the rate of population growth, which, as opposed to the Depression era, has been on a steady and consistent decline since the 1950s. This decline in population growth and fertility rates will potentially lead to further economic complications as the baby boomer generation migrates into retirement and becomes a net drag on financial infrastructure.

No Upward Pressure on Rates: Must we conclude, then, Mr. Roberts, that rates will remain squelched?: "Interest rates are ultimately a reflection of economic growth, inflation and monetary velocity. Therefore, given the globe is awash in deflation, caused by weak economic output and exceedingly low levels of monetary velocity, there is no pressure to push rates sustainably higher… Rates rise in conjunction with more substantial levels of economic growth. Such is because more substantial growth leads to higher wages and inflation, causing rates to rise accordingly…"

In conclusion: Today, despite trillions of dollars of interventions, zero interest rates and numerous bailouts, the economy has yet to gain any real traction, particularly on “Main Street”... The catalysts needed to create the economic growth required to drive interest rates substantially higher, as we saw previous to 1980, are not available today. Such will be the case for decades to come.

The Good and the Bad: Here then is the positive news, assuming this analysis holds the water in: Inflation will go back in its cage once fractured supply chains undergo relinking. Interest rates will not go skyshooting. They will not send the economy careening along opposite trajectories. But with the honey come the aloes, with the sweet comes the bitter...The future may instead be a marathon run of struggling growth, of stagnating incomes, of economic languishing. That is, we may confront a future not of sudden collapse but of gray and twilight. Of habitual malaise... Of a dank and drizzly November... month upon month… year upon year. Which is worse?"

- dailyreckoning.com

“The History of the Middle Finger”

“The History of the Middle Finger”

by pappy

“Well, now… here’s something I never knew before, and now that I know it, I feel compelled to send it on to my more intelligent friends in the hope that they, too, will feel edified.

Before the Battle of Agincourt in 1415, the French, anticipating victory over the English, proposed to cut off the middle finger of all captured English soldiers. Without the middle finger it would be impossible to draw the renowned English longbow and therefore they would be incapable of fighting in the future. This famous English longbow was made of the native English Yew tree, and the act of drawing the longbow was known as ‘plucking the yew’ (or ‘pluck yew’).

Much to the bewilderment of the French, the English won a major upset and they began mocking the French by waving their middle fingers at the defeated French, saying, “See, we can still pluck yew!” Since ‘pluck yew’ is rather difficult to say, the difficult consonant cluster at the beginning has gradually changed to a labiodentalfricative ‘F’, and thus the words often used in conjunction with the one-finger-salute! It is also because of the pheasant feathers on the arrows used with the longbow that the symbolic gesture is known as ‘giving the bird.’”

- http://pappys-rants.blogspot.com/

"Quotes for Hard Times"

RedFrost Motivation, "Quotes for Hard Times"

Performed by Peter Revel Walsh

The Daily "Near You?"

Davis, California, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"Fate. Luck. Chance"

“That is life, isn’t it? Fate. Luck. Chance. A long series of what-if’s that lead from one moment to the next, time never pausing for you to catch your breath, to make sense of the cards that have been handed to you. And all you can do is play your cards and hope for the best, because in the end, it all comes back to those three basics. Fate. Luck. Chance.”

- Kelseyleigh Reber

“Unless, of course, there’s no such thing as chance… in which case, we should either - optimistically - get up and cheer, because if everything is planned in advance, then we all have a meaning and are spared the terror of knowing ourselves to be random, without a why; or else, of course, we might - as pessimists - give up right here and now, understanding the futility of thought-decision-action, since nothing we think makes any difference anyway, things will be as they will. Where, then, is optimism? In fate or in chaos?”

- Salman Rushdie

"Our Great Adversary..."

“Whether the mask is labeled fascism, democracy, or dictatorship of the proletariat, our great adversary remains the apparatus - the bureaucracy, the police, the military. Not the one facing us across the frontier of the battle lines, which is not so much our enemy as our brothers’ enemy, but the one that calls itself our protector and makes us its slaves. No matter what the circumstances, the worst betrayal will always be to subordinate ourselves to this apparatus and to trample underfoot, in its service, all human values in ourselves and in others.”

- Simone Weil, French philosopher and political activist.

"Is Transitory Inflation Here to Stay?"

"Is Transitory Inflation Here to Stay?"

By Bill Bonner

"When a government loses its legitimacy,

 its only recourse is authoritarianism."

– Dear Reader Craig W.

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – "Yes… we’re cantering across the broad pampas… looking for tomorrow’s headlines. And what’s this? Today’s headlines already have a tango beat. Here’s The Wall Street Journal: "Accelerating Inflation Spreads Through the Economy." "U.S. inflation accelerated last month and remained at its highest rate in over a decade, with price increases from pandemic-related labor and materials shortages rippling through the economy.

The Labor Department said last month’s consumer-price index, which measures what consumers pay for goods and services, rose by 5.4% from a year earlier, in unadjusted terms. That is the same rate as in June and July as the economy reopened, and slightly higher than in August. The so-called core price index, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, in September climbed 4% from a year earlier, the same rate as in August.

On a monthly basis, the CPI rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in September from August, also faster than in August, which rose 0.3%.

[…]

“It looks like some of these supply-chain and inventory challenges are going to stick with us for a bit longer – at least through the rest of this year,” said Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights LLC."

So much for inflation being “transitory,” as the Federal Reserve has claimed. Here’s Breitbart: "Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said Tuesday that inflation is likely to last longer than expected and should no longer be called “transitory.”

Bostic is the first Fed official to so clearly break from the central bank’s leadership on inflation. Fed chair Jerome Powell has insisted for months on describing inflation as transitory, although he recently admitted that it could last into next year. The Biden administration has also repeatedly claimed, without evidence, that inflation would only be transitory.

[…]

Bostic argued that the word “episodic” better describes pandemic-induced price swings than “transitory.” He said he still believes that the price hikes are tied to the supply chain disruptions stemming from the pandemic and will eventually unwind as the global economy adjusts. But it is becoming increasingly clear that the intense and widespread supply chain disruptions will not be brief, Bostic said."

Buying Votes: Yesterday, we saw what happens when inflation gets worse. Hungry mobs are butchering cattle in the streets of Buenos Aires… "but the World Bank says Argentine inflation probably won’t go beyond 50% per year."

(The World Bank’s role is to support the corrupt elites who run the world’s nations. It was set up in 1944 by Harry Dexter White, who was later accused of being a Soviet spy. Running the institution has been a sinecure for disgraced scalawags ever since, including Robert McNamara, after making such a success of the Vietnam war, and Paul Wolfowitz, after getting the U.S. into a war with Iraq.)

And here’s another recent headline with an eerie “coming soon to theaters near you” feel to it from Bloomberg: "Argentina Accelerates Money Printing Ahead of November Elections." "Central bank financing of the government reached 250 billion pesos ($2.5 billion) in the first 22 days of September, the most of any month this year, according to central bank data published Tuesday. With the government cut off from international credit, the central bank helps meet the shortfall by creating pesos and transferring them to the treasury."

No! Really? Thank God U.S. politicians are not so craven… so reckless… or so single-minded in their pursuit of power and money. At least, we can count on them not to print more money just to try to curry favor with the swing voters.

But wait… According to Bloomberg, Argentina’s “primary fiscal deficit” is only 4% of GDP in 2021. In the U.S., it’s headed for $3 trillion – over 13% of GDP. Who’s the spendthrift?

Puzzling Questions: Now emerging in this rich Argentine topsoil, like a toxic mushroom behind an antique oak… may be an answer to some puzzling questions: Why are the U.S. and most European countries – along with much of the rest of the world, including Japan – all following the same trends… the same arc of history… the same policies – even though they appear to be leading to bankruptcy and chaos?

Why is the U.S. elite so eager to control our money… our movements… and even our speech? Why are growth rates falling in the U.S… when we have more capital, more patents, more new technology, more smart, educated young people… and more stimulus… than ever before? Tune in tomorrow as we take a bite of the mushroom."

- www.rogueeconomics.com

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"Prices Are Continuing to Surge: 

Here’s What’s Becoming the Most Expensive"

"How It Really Is"

"The Economy is Cratering Back to the Dark Ages"

Full screen recommended.

Dan, iAllegedly, AM 10/14/21:

"The Economy is Cratering Back to the Dark Ages"

"There are three areas of the economy where we got more bad news. The consumer price index has hit its highest level since 1991, almost 5.4%. Peoples wages are down and the number of home mortgages are decreasing in complete loans."

"Everything Solid Melts into Air"

"Everything Solid Melts into Air"

by Charles Hugh Smith

"We know we're close to the moment when Everything Solid Melts into Air when extraordinary breakdowns are treated as ordinary and the "news" quickly reverts to gossip. So over 4 million American workers up and quit every month, month after month after month, and the reaction is ho-hum, labor shortage, blah, blah, blah, toy shortage for Christmas, oh, the horror, blah, blah, blah.

These are large numbers. Over 10 million job openings and 6 million hires and 6 million "separations," i.e. layoffs and the 4.3 million voluntary quits. The happy story promoted by the corporate media is that this enormous churn is the result of shiny, happy people moving up the work food chain to better paying jobs. We know we're close to the moment when Everything Solid Melts into Air when every breakdown is instantly reworked into a happy story in which everything is getting better every day, in every way.

The reality nobody in power wants to acknowledge, much less address, is that millions of workers are opting out or burning out and they're not coming back. Another happy story promoted by the corporate media is that once all the gummit freebies ended, the lazy no-good workforce would be forced to take whatever wretched job the billionaires need done at low pay and zero benefits. (But hey, you qualify for food stamps, so it's all good!)

A substantial share of the workforce has declared "up yours" and another share has been so burned out by overwork and constant pressure that they're done: they can no longer work at this pace and for that many hours. This enrages the lackeys, toadies, apparatchiks and apologists of the billionaires: how dare you escape from forced labor! The whole economy is based on the bleak choice of take the job we offer or starve.

The "innovation" (pay attention, neofeudal lords) from SillyCon Valley is to offer an illusion of "choice" in this forced labor system: in the gig economy, you get to "choose" between Gulag Camp One (low pay, long hours, zero benefits and zero security) and Gulag Camp Two (low pay, long hours, zero benefits and zero security).

Wow! Who knew "choice" was so life-changing? In a similar fashion, when you can no longer afford rent, utilities, etc., then you get a "choice" of living in your car, if you have one, or fashioning a crate-tent "home" or taking over the ruined camper left by the guy who made the one-way trip to the morgue.

That the neofeudal lords and their lackeys offer the debt-serfs "choices" of forced labor would be comic if the results weren't so tragic. The neofeudal status quo is so busy chasing down escapees from the forced-work Gulags that it won't notice its Wile E. Coyote moment when Everything Solid Melts into Air."

- https://www.oftwominds.com/

Gregory Mannarino, "AM/PM 10/14/21"

Gregory Mannarino, AM 10/14/21:

"Important Updates"

- https://traderschoice.net/

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Gregory Mannarino, PM 10/14/21:

"As I Warned... 

The Second LARGER Wave Of Inflation Is Just Starting To Hit"

-  https://traderschoice.net/

"As The Global Energy Crisis Explodes, They Are Warning That Heating Bills Will Be Extremely Painful This Winter"

"As The Global Energy Crisis Explodes, They Are

 Warning That Heating Bills Will Be Extremely Painful This Winter"

by Michael Snyder

"Whether you like it or not, a major global energy crisis is here, and it is going to hit all of us right in the wallet. Today, markets for energy are truly global, and that means that price spikes in one part of the planet will inevitably filter elsewhere. For example, a lot of natural gas that is produced in the United States is now heading for Europe, and that is pushing up prices here. As energy supplies get tighter and tighter, power bills are going to go higher and higher. In fact, the U.S. government is now warning American citizens to expect heating bills to rise more than 50 percent this winter. Needless to say, a lot of families out there simply cannot afford that.

For a while, the mainstream media was trying to deny what was happening, but now they are openly using the term “energy crisis” to describe what we are facing. Here is one example…"Far from emerging from the COVID shock awash with fuel, as might be expected after an economic slowdown, the world is entering a new energy crisis the like of which hasn’t been seen since the 1970s. European and Asian gas prices are at an all-time high, the oil price is at a three-year high, and the price of coal is soaring on the back of energy shortages across China, India and Germany."

Global demand for energy is only going to increase in the months ahead. Summer just ended a few weeks ago, and the middle of winter is still months away. So if you think that things are bad now, just wait until we get into early 2022.

At this point, even CNN is admitting the truth… "Astronomical increases in natural gas prices. Skyrocketing coal costs. Predictions of $100 oil. A global energy crunch caused by weather and a resurgence in demand is getting worse, stirring alarm ahead of the winter, when more energy is needed to light and heat homes. Governments around the world are trying to limit the impact on consumers, but acknowledge they may not be able to prevent bills spiking."

So exactly what kind of “spiking” are we talking about? Well, this week the federal government announced that it is now projecting that heating bills for U.S. consumers will be 54 percent higher this winter… "Get ready to pay sharply higher bills for heating this winter, along with seemingly everything else. With prices surging worldwide for heating oil, natural gas and other fuels, the U.S. government said Wednesday it expects households to see their heating bills jump as much as 54% compared to last winter."

Actually, if heating bills only go up by 54 percent this winter I think that we will be extremely fortunate. Many believe that they will shoot up a lot higher than that, because energy prices here in the U.S. have already been going completely nuts… "Natural gas in the United States, for example, has climbed to its highest price since 2014 and is up roughly 90% over the last year. The wholesale price of heating oil, meanwhile, has more than doubled in the last 12 months."

Another reason for the rise is how global the market for fuels has become. In Europe, strong demand and limited supplies have sent natural gas prices up nearly 350% this year. That’s pushing some of the natural gas produced in the United States to head for ships bound for other countries, adding upward pressure on domestic prices as well.

I know what a lot of you are thinking. Millions of families are not going to be able to afford these price increases, and that is going to cause widespread financial hardship. Even before this new energy crisis erupted, a large portion of the U.S. population had to “forego expenses for basic necessities” in order to pay their power bills… "To make ends meet, families are cutting deeply. Nearly 22% of Americans had to reduce or forego expenses for basic necessities, such as medicine or food, to pay an energy bill in at least one of the last 12 months, according to a September survey by the U.S. Census Bureau. Despite all of the money that the federal government has thrown at people over the past couple of years, much of the nation is still deeply suffering."

According to another recent survey, close to 40 percent of all U.S. households “have faced serious financial problems” within the past several months… "Nearly 40% of US households have faced serious financial problems, including struggling to afford medical care and food, in the last few months, according to a survey published on Tuesday.

The survey by NPR, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health also showed that in those last few months, as the US struggled to contain the infectious Delta coronavirus variant, the percentage of households reporting serious financial problems rose to 59% when they had an income under $50,000 a year."

Normally, a number like that would indicate that unemployment is rampant. But as I discussed the other day, the U.S. is actually in the midst of an epic shortage of workers right now. If you want a job, you can go out and get one. Of course the vast majority of the jobs that are available are very low paying jobs, and rampant inflation is devaluing the wages paid to such workers a little bit more with each passing day.

On Wednesday, we learned that on a year-over-year basis inflation is rising at the fastest pace in 30 years… "Consumer prices increased slightly more than expected in September as food and energy price rises offset declines in used cars, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. The consumer price index for all items rose 0.4% for the month, compared with the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate. On a year-over-year basis, prices increased 5.4% versus the estimate for 5.3% and the highest since January 1991."

Needless to say, the official government numbers greatly understate the real rate of inflation. According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if inflation was still calculated the way it was in 1980, the official rate of inflation would be well into double digits at this point. And now this new energy crisis is going to make things even worse. Virtually everything that we buy has to be physically transported, and now shipping stuff around the country is going to become significantly more expensive.

In my last two books I specifically warned that inflation would spin wildly out of control, and now it is happening right in front of our eyes. The experts are telling us that this is going to be a really cold winter, and a lot of American families are going to be forced to make some very difficult choices. Many will decide to keep their thermostats uncomfortably low, but as long as the power stays on most of us will make it through the coming months okay.

The real danger would come if we start having blackouts like other parts of the globe are already experiencing. As we witnessed in Texas last winter, the loss of power for an extended period of time during a cold stretch can have absolutely disastrous consequences."

- http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/

The Poet: Theodore Roethke, “The Return”

“The Return”

“Suddenly the window will open

and Mother will call,

it's time to come in.

The wall will part,

I will enter heaven in muddy shoes.

I will come to the table

and answer questions rudely.

I am all right, leave me

alone. Head in hand I

sit and sit. How can I tell them

about that long

and tangled way?

Here in heaven mothers

knit green scarves;

flies buzz.

Father dozes by the stove

after six days' labor.

No - surely I can't tell them

that people are at each

other's throats.”

- Theodore Roethke

Viktor Frankl, "Life Changing Quotes" ("Man's Search For Meaning")

Full screen recommended.

Viktor Frankl, "Life Changing Quotes" ("Man's Search For Meaning")

"Viktor Emil Frankl was an Austrian neurologist and psychiatrist as well as a Holocaust survivor. Frankl was the founder of the logotherapy method and is most notable for his best-selling book Man's Search for Meaning."

Freely download "Mans Search For Meaning", by Viktor Frankl, here:

- https://www.booksfree.org/

○

Highest recommendation:

"Yes to Life, in Spite of Everything: Viktor Frankl’s Lost Lectures on Moving 

Beyond Optimism and Pessimism to Find the Deepest Source of Meaning"

"Cash Crucial During Collapse; Serious Financial Problems Afflict Millions; Dangerous Trends - Prepare"

Jeremiah Babe, PM 10/13/21:

"Cash Crucial During Collapse; Serious Financial 

Problems Afflict Millions; Dangerous Trends - Prepare"

"Americans Are Going To Be Absolutely Shocked By The Empty Shelves That They See"

Full Screen Recommended.

"Americans Are Going To Be Absolutely 

Shocked By The Empty Shelves That They See"

by Epic Economist

"Many Americans thought things would be getting back on track by now, but instead what we have is an economy plagued by rampant inflation and broken supply chains. For months, industry experts have been alerting about the worsening supply chain crisis but our leaders underestimated the severity of the problem, and now US consumers are about to get absolutely shocked by the shortages they see.

Instead of announcing a resolution, the White House just openly admitted that there will be significant shortages this holiday season and warned that supply chain problems aren't going to get better anytime soon. Most Americans have never experienced such extensive shortages, and it's safe to say that the younger generation never even dreamed that they were possible. After all, we're the richest country on the planet -- not only in wealth but also in resources.

However, as problems have been overlooked despite the series of warnings that have been made, the worst is yet to come. And the painful shortages and price increases we have gone through so far were just the beginning. The White House would ordinarily try to spin any negative story to make it positive, but there's nothing they can say to hide the fact that there are widespread shortages all over the country. And at this point, even the mainstream media is commenting on the government's lack of action to tackle this crisis.

According to the Daily Mail, White House officials are "warning American shoppers that they won't be able to get key items like popular kids toys for Christmas due to the ongoing supply chain nightmares that are strangling retail stores". When the corporate media starts to pay attention to our real issues, we know that things are already getting out of hand. In fact, the report even says that "stores across the country are becoming increasingly barren thanks to a series of bottlenecks in the global supply chain". And that "White House officials warned that Americans will face higher prices and empty shelves this holiday season".

Right now, many goods that are manufactured in China, such as toys, appliances, and clothes, are stuck either in Chinese factories or in containers onboard gigantic cargo ships that are waiting for a berth. The unprecedented port congestion has created a nightmare economic scenario where it has become impossible to meet the rising demand even though there's supply available, which is driving inflation and in turn raising prices for US consumers.

"President Biden did not comment on the issues at length, nor has he offered a solution for them. Earlier this year, he created a task force to tackle the issue, but so far they are yet to present a plan to fix the issues, the report highlighted. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve predicted an inflation spike of 4.2%, well above its 2% target. American consumers, unused to empty store shelves, may need to be flexible and patient, White House officials said.

"Major food and consumer product manufacturers being short of supply on some items will be a challenge in the grocery industry in the final months of the year," said Steve Howard, vice president of merchandising at Bristol Farms, a grocery chain in California. He revealed that his suppliers are warning about shortages of foods, glass jars, and packaging containers.

Some food brands have started imposing restrictions, or purchase caps, for certain products on grocery stores and distributors, while other vendors are warning of limited availability and dwindling inventory levels. These purchase limits could be particularly challenging for independent grocers, who have raised concerns in the past year that suppliers prioritize larger competitors over small stores. That's why at a local level, shortages can be way more severe than at huge supermarkets. However, big retailers are not immune from restrictions and scarcity.

The enormous backlog of containers awaiting berth at the ports of L.A. and Long Beach is causing major headaches for suppliers, shipping companies, and retailers. As a result, the cost of shipping is reaching absurd heights. Nationwide, more than 100,000 containers are waiting to get unpacked. But due to a massive worker shortage, it could take months until the congestion eases. These are such turbulent times, and much more turbulence is on the way. This is already the most dramatic supply chain collapse in modern history, and it's safe to say that more disruptions are just around the corner."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com

"Doug Casey on Why the US Is Headed into Its Fourth Turning"

"Doug Casey on Why the US Is Headed into Its Fourth Turning"

by International Man

"International Man: The economic, political, social, and cultural situation seems to have become increasingly volatile in the United States and more broadly in the West. Is this a unique situation or part of a recurring historical cycle? Authors William Strauss and Neil Howe introduced a popular theory in their book, "The Fourth Turning", outlining the recurring generational cycles that have occurred throughout American history. What are your thoughts?

Doug Casey: I read Strauss and Howe’s first book, "Generations," when it came out back in 1992. I thought it was brilliant. Let me start off by recommending both "Generations" and "The Fourth Turning" to everybody. Both books offer quite a scholarly, readable, and prescient view of the cyclicality of history. And offer a very plausible forecast for the 2020s.

History’s best seen as cyclical, rather than a straight-line progress to some preordained end the way both the Marxists and the Abrahamic religions see it. But then, Ecclesiastes has its famous quote that there’s nothing new under the sun. Plato in the Republic talks about how the younger generation - and we’re talking fourth century BC - can’t stand up to the moral values of their forefathers.

Older people have always thought that the younger generation wouldn’t quite measure up. In recent American history, you’ll recall, the younger generation were the beatniks in the ’50s, the hippies in the ’60s, and the yuppies in the ’80s—so it’s a passing parade. Older people have a tendency to think the world is going downhill. Nothing new there. But there’s always a rebirth.

Niccolò Machiavelli, in his "Florentine Histories," said: "Virtue gives birth to tranquility, tranquility to leisure, leisure to disorder, disorder to ruin… and similarly from ruin, order is born, from order virtue, from virtue, glory and good fortune."

The bottom line is that societies arise from poverty through moral strength - and that brings them prosperity. But that prosperity brings on arrogance, and the arrogance brings on laziness, which brings on weakness and moral decline. Then they’re reduced to a condition of slavery and poverty again. Change is the only constant - except in human nature.

As I look at the United States, it seems to me the peak of American culture was the time just before Teddy Roosevelt came into office. Teddy is certainly among the top five worst presidents. And there’s plenty of competition for that title. He was the first real "progressive" president; he wanted the government actively involved in all areas of life.

Now, that’s not to say that Teddy Roosevelt wouldn’t have been a really great drinking pal, a wonderful guy to go camping with, a fun guy to have an intellectual conversation with. He had a lot of admirable personal values. But he was a nationalist, a statist, and a warmonger. That’s why I say he was a horrible president.

The long-term trend of US overseas imperialism started with the Spanish–American War and the building of an overseas American empire in Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Philippines, and Hawaii - followed by World War I. The US has gone from being noninterventionist to now having many hundreds of bases around the world and trying to give orders to every other country in the world. That kind of arrogance always ends badly.

As a civilization - a culture - the US has been on an accelerating path downhill for about 120 years now. That’s true even while science and technology have greatly increased the general standard of living. It’s a mistake to conflate a higher standard of living with higher moral values - that’s what Machiavelli was talking about.

I question whether that trend will change - at least until we have a genuine crisis. Why not? Because a lot of the way a society acts comes from the way kids are brought up - the values that are inculcated in them when they’re young. And increasingly, kids are taught what I would call the wrong values. Saint Ignatius said this in the 17th century, and Lenin repeated it in the 20th century. They both said that if you indoctrinate someone in his youth, chances are you’ve directed his worldview for the rest of his life.

Cultural Marxists are now totally in control of the US educational system, and have been for a couple of generations. That’s absolutely the case in the colleges and universities but also in the high schools and even in the grade schools. Kids are being taught to be socialists, ecowarriors, social justice warriors, and "woke" from an early age. It’s really serious. And it’s not a cyclical phenomenon. This is one of the few areas in which I take some issue with The Fourth Turning. The trend towards collectivism and statism seems to be a secular long-term trend that’s still accelerating.

There are a few bright spots. Libertarians, for instance, are somewhat more prominent than in the past. But the fact that libertarians believe in personal freedom, in the face of a societal trend in the opposite direction, makes me tend to believe they’re actually genetic mutants. They’re just a small percentage of the population, whose nature has resisted the prevailing nurture.

I say that, only partially because of my own experience. I grew up in what could - jokingly - be called a cannibalistic death cult and was imbued with all kinds of strange notions by nuns and priests at the schools that I went to. I rejected them intuitively and intellectually, but they still stick to you like tar. It can take years to wash off the effects of early indoctrination.

I’m more of a maverick than most people are, however. Most just continue to believe what they’re taught as kids, reflexively and automatically - right or wrong. So I don’t think there’s really much hope of a serious change in the direction of American culture. At least until a major crisis - and the outcome of that is in doubt.

International Man: OK. That’s the long-term trend. Where are we in the generational cycle now? Are we moving into the fourth turning and headed for a crisis?

Doug Casey: Strauss and Howe take a cyclical point of view over the course of roughly 80 years, four generations. To very briefly summarize their theory, there are four "turnings": a "high," an "awakening," an "unraveling," and a "crisis."

Over the last couple of decades, we’ve been undergoing the unraveling, where old values fall apart. Next, Strauss and Howe predicted a crisis, starting about 2015, which tests the very existence of the society. Or at least the way it’s run. They go beyond seeing generations as being simply "liberal" or "conservative." According to Strauss and Howe, there are four generational archetypes that last over a cycle of 80 years - 20 years per generation - corresponding to the "turnings."

Without going into all the details, they see the baby boomers as being a "Prophet" Generation. The authors are ideologically oriented - fire and brimstone types - very much like Bernie Sanders on the left and Donald Trump on the right. Kind of biblically apocalyptic by nature. They were quite correct in defining the Generation X types as the so-called "Nomad" Generation. These are kids who learned to take care of themselves - and are not so ideological in the way they think.

The Millennials are who are relevant at the moment. They correspond, in Strauss and Howe’s view, to the World War II generation. They’d be the frontline soldiers in the coming crisis and conflicts.

International Man: What happens after a crisis? Is there a positive way forward?

Doug Casey: Historically, the answer is, "Almost never" - in the short run. The best recent example is the French Revolution. It got worse with Robespierre - a Bernie Sanders of the era - followed by Napoleon. Or take the case of the Russian revolution. As necessary as it was to get rid of Nicholas II, it got worse with Lenin, and then it got even worse with Stalin. But even in those cases, France and Russia recovered.

If it all comes unglued in the US over the next decade, those two revolutions could be templates. Look at the way leading Democrats think, and listen to what they’re saying. They’re echoing Robespierre and Lenin. The Republicans aren’t much better, because although they sometimes talk the talk of peace and personal freedom, they almost never walk the walk. The two major US parties - and people in the Red counties and the Blue counties - seem to really hate each other.

It’s quite ugly sociologically. There are irreconcilable differences. They’re exacerbated by the fact we’re headed for a financial blow up. There’s no doubt about that.

Some years ago, there was a poll taken among Generation X types. It turned out that more of them believed that space aliens were going to invade than that they were ever going to collect Social Security. People have very little faith in "the system" anymore, the society, or the government.

If we go back to the beginning of the 20th century, the country really wasn’t very political at all. People worried about their own lives, their own families, and their own local communities. Americans shared a common culture, beliefs, and values - that’s no longer true. Now the country has become very politicized  - everybody has a loud voice and they use votes as weapons against their neighbors. It’s become a nation of nasty busybodies.

That makes me think the next upset will be something like a revolution. It’s likely to be really ugly, because we’re looking, simultaneously, at an economic catastrophe, political chaos, and a social and demographic upset - and probably a military situation as well. Government often sees war as a way to unite the country.

So, what’s going to happen? I’ll hazard a guess that 50 years from now, the United States and, for that matter, most countries are not going to exist in anything like their present form. The best solution is a peaceful break up into smaller political subdivisions. As opposed to a civil war - which is a contest between one or more groups for the control of a central government."

- internationalman.com

Musical Interlude:2002, "To Touch the Sky"

Full screen recommended.

2002, "To Touch the Sky"

"In Three Words..."

"A Look to the Heavens"

“While drifting through the cosmos, a magnificent interstellar dust cloud became sculpted by stellar winds and radiation to assume a recognizable shape. Fittingly named the Horsehead Nebula, it is embedded in the vast and complex Orion Nebula (M42). A potentially rewarding but difficult object to view personally with a small telescope, the below gorgeously detailed image was recently taken in infrared light by the orbiting Hubble Space Telescope. 

The dark molecular cloud, roughly 1,500 light years distant, is cataloged as Barnard 33 and is seen above primarily because it is backlit by the nearby massive star Sigma Orionis. The Horsehead Nebula will slowly shift its apparent shape over the next few million years and will eventually be destroyed by the high energy starlight.”

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130422.html

"Peak Focus for Complex Tasks, Study Music with Beta Isochronic Tones"

Full screen recommended.

"Peak Focus for Complex Tasks, 

Study Music with Beta Isochronic Tones"

by Jason Lewis - Mind Amend

"Experience intense focus when working on complicated tasks. Study music mix version of my 'Peak Focus For Complex Tasks' isochronic tones session. Listen to this when you need to maintain a high level focus to concentrate and study things like advanced mathematics, scientific formulas, financial analysis or any other complex mental activity."

If you are new to this type of audio brainwave entrainment, find out how isochronic tones work and how they compare to binaural beats here:

- https://www.mindamend.com/

○

A comment: I'm quite aware this blog's content has progressively turned into a virtual chamber of horrors - The Covid-19 pandemic hoax, the ongoing total economic collapse and it's inevitable consequences, loss of civil liberties, wars, poverty, climate change, rampant drug use - one disaster or horror after another - everything's going to Hell in a hand-basket and it's clearly displayed here. The world's a complex place, so the articles are sometimes lengthy of necessity. Not by choice - I'd much rather focus on other, better things, or be doing something else, but take a glance at the main-stream liars and propagandists, you won't see any of these things covered there, just more of the sensationalistic garbage and pure propaganda from all those cheaply bought low-life money whores. I've always believed you CAN handle the truth, given the chance to know it. Of course you can find truth, or the best version of it, elsewhere on many sites, if you know where to look (see the Favorites sidebars), and I hope you're doing that. 

I can only speak to what you'll find here. Please, don't come here expecting all sweetness and light, you'll be rudely disappointed. Anymore the blog article selection is really a threat-analysis and prioritization process, in hopes of keeping you informed about what's really happening behind the smoke screens and lies, and alerting you to imminent crises. We've run out of time, hence the sense of urgency. These things are upon us, they're here now, and you have an absolute right to know and understand how and why it's all happening as it is. That knowing may help you prepare, help you deal more effectively with inevitable changes we can do nothing about, may help you survive. But we will NOT go down without a fight! So, apologies for the sometimes grim article content, but that's real life, just how it really is, whether any of us like it or not. Stay informed, stay aware, and stay strong, always, and most of all thanks for stopping by!

- CP

"Ironic, huh?”

“Thought is real. Physical is the illusion. Ironic, huh?”

- Robin Williams, “What Dreams May Come”

Gregory Mannarino, "MELTDOWN? Inflation Is Skyrocketing, The Economy Cratering. Is The FED. About To Crash The Market?"

Gregory Mannarino, PM 10/13/21:

"MELTDOWN? Inflation Is Skyrocketing, The Economy Cratering.

 Is The FED. About To Crash The Market?"

- https://traderschoice.net/

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"Supply Chain Disruptions Force White House

 to Ask Walmart, UPS, FedEx to Increase Output"

The Daily "Near You?"

Bacolod City, Bacolod, Philippines. Thanks for stopping by!

"Be Like The Bird..."

"What matter if this base, unjust life

Cast you naked and disarmed?

If the ground breaks beneath your step,

Have you not your soul?

Your soul! You fly away,

Escape to realms refined,

Beyond all sadness and whimpering.

Be like the bird which on frail branches balanced

A moment sits and sings;

He feels them tremble, but he sings unshaken,

Knowing he has wings."

– Victor Hugo

"Do You Want..."

"Do you want to live life, or do you want to escape life?"

- Macklemore

Albert Camus, "Life Changing Quotes"

Full screen recommended.

Albert Camus, "Life Changing Quotes"

Powerful quotations from the great French philosopher Albert Camus.

Narrated by Chris Lines

"Here And Now..."

"Someday stars will wind down or blow up. Someday death will cover us all like the water of a lake and perhaps nothing will ever come to the surface to show that we were ever there. But we WERE there, and during the time we lived, we were alive. That's the truth - what is, what was, what will be - not what could be, what should have been, what never can be."

- Orson Scott Card

"Now the voices and the sound of movement were gone, and the stream could be heard running quietly under its banks. The air was full of the scent of water and of flowers. She walked, quiet, while the house began to reverberate: a band had started up. She walked beside the river while the music thudded, feeling herself as a heavy, impervious, insensitive lump that, like a planet doomed always to be dark on one side, had vision in front only, a myopic searchlight blind except for the tiny three-dimensional path open immediately before her eyes in which the outline of a tree, a rose, emerged then submerged in dark. She thought, with the dove's voices of her solitude. Where? But where. How? Who? No, but where, where... Then silence and the birth of a repetition. Where? Here. Here? Here, where else, you fool, you poor fool, where else has it been, ever?"

- Doris Lessing

"How It Really Is"

 

"Headed to the Pampas"

"Headed to the Pampas"

by Bill Bonner

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – "An intriguing item in the Argentine press caught our eye. Referring to rising public anger in the midst of an economic crisis… the Buenos Aires Times reports that tempers: "…came to a boil one recent evening, when a hungry mob forced a [cattle truck] driver to let out a cow and proceeded to slaughter it right there on the street."

Hmmm… that’s not likely to happen in the U.S. America’s urban mob is probably unaware that beef comes from animals. And it would have no idea how to butcher one. Instead, annoyed by consumer price increases and the arrogance of the ruling elite, it will shut down airlines… hospitals… and the whole supply chain. Food will disappear from the shelves. Gasoline pumps will go dry. Mobs will form in the streets…

And who knows? Maybe Donald Trump will be re-elected! Then, with his customary numbskull bravado, he will make the situation even worse.

Fed’s Fraudfest: But wait, we’re getting ahead of ourselves. We saw yesterday, Ms. Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury – along with the whole Elite Establishment – is seeking to eliminate anything and everything that might get in its way.

Debt ceiling… tax competition… And the privacy of bank accounts, too. Here’s The New York Times on a recent Biden Administration proposal: "…The administration wants banks to give the Internal Revenue Service new details on their customers and provide data for accounts with total annual deposits or withdrawals worth more than $600." Day by day, the ramparts are battered. The elite shock troops advance. Nothing will be allowed to stop the fraudfest. Tax… spend… borrow… print.

Good Guess: But where does it lead? Twenty years ago, looking into the future, we saw a long journey ahead. It would take the U.S. to Tokyo… then to Buenos Aires. By that, we meant we were in for a slog of punky asset prices and a sluggish on-again, off-again recession, à la Japan… to be followed by money-printing, leftish populism, and inflation, como en la pampa. Of course, we were just guessing. But we were right… and we were wrong.

America’s Main Street economy declined – just as it had in Japan. So far this century, GDP growth rates have been cut in half… real, net investment has been flat… and adjusted for inflation, real industrial production has gone down, despite the addition of 50 million people. And left-ish, Argentine-style populism arrived, too – in the form of the aforementioned Mr. Trump.

Boom to Bust: But over on Wall Street, it was a different story. It was get-down-and-boogie time, with a big bust in the Nasdaq in 2000… followed by a boom-bubble-and-bust cycle that ended in 2008… followed by another one ending in 2020. Each time, the bust was followed by a printing lalapaloosa at the Federal Reserve and a BTFD (buy the f**king dip) reaction by investors… leading to another bubble cycle. But it all depends on printing more and more money. And how long can that go on? Is it just a matter of time before stocks crash and cows are butchered in the streets of Boston?

Tomorrow’s News: Today, we saddle up… with a cushy fleece on the hard Argentine seat; we aim to range wide and far. We’re going to explore that enchanting land south of the Río de la Plata. What are we looking for? A glimpse at tomorrow’s headlines, of course. If we’re right, Americans are headed to the pampas…

Here’s a headline from the Buenos Aires Times that we think we’ll see here in the U.S. in a few years: "World Bank Economist Rules Out Risk of Hyperinflation in Argentina." The World Bank has ruled out the risk of hyperinflation in Argentina, where year-on-year prices have surged more than 50 percent, and believes a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the country’s multi-billion-dollar debt will further reduce that possibility.

“I don’t see that risk,” said William Maloney, the World Bank’s chief economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, at a press conference on Wednesday, when asked about the threat of consumer prices spiralling out of control in consumer prices in Argentina. Inflation is around 50 percent but the government still has some tools to prevent the crisis from deepening.”

What a relief. The gaucho feds only steal half your savings every year… or 100% in 24 months. Is that what’s coming in the U.S., too? Just change “Argentina” to “USA”? We can live with that, right? Right? We’ll find out more, tomorrow…"

- www.rogueeconomics.com