Monday, March 29, 2021

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 3/29/21"

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 3/29/21"
"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will
do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone."
- John Maynard Keynes
"Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
Your guide:
Gregory Mannarino, AM 3/29/21:

"Alert! Oil Refinery Destroyed! 

Stocks Set For Lower Open"

"The more I see of the monied classes, 
the better I understand the guillotine."
- George Bernard Shaw
MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates

CNN Market Data:

CNN Fear And Greed Index:
A comprehensive, essential daily read.
March 28th to 30th, Updated Daily 
Financial Stress Index
"The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, such as yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. The OFR FSI incorporates five categories of indicators: credit, equity valuation, funding, safe assets and volatility. The FSI shows stress contributions by three regions: United States, other advanced economies, and emerging markets."
Daily Job Cuts

"How It Really Is"

 


Sunday, March 28, 2021

Edward Snowden, "It's Worse Than We Thought"

Edward Snowden, "It's Worse Than We Thought"

"Housing Crash Is Coming! Price Bubble Threatens To Trigger The Most Dramatic Home Value Drop Ever"

Full screen recommended.
"Housing Crash Is Coming! Price Bubble Threatens
 To Trigger The Most Dramatic Home Value Drop Ever"
by Epic Economist

"The last time the U.S. saw such skyrocketing home prices, the global economy faced a catastrophic meltdown. The imbalances between supply and demand, wages and home price appreciation, interest rates and inflation, are once again setting up the stage for a dramatic crash. Now, the U.S. housing market bubble is out of control, and although this bubble may be configured differently from the one that preceded the Great Recession of 2008, it keeps expanding just as rapidly. Even policymakers are concerned their easy money policies and stimulus packages - which helped to fuel the growth of this splendid bubble - may soon blow up on their faces as the economy reopens, inflation surges, and interest rates are pushed up, collapsing the entire housing market and bursting several other asset bubbles. As more and more Americans continue to be priced out of the market, the current home valuations will have to adjust and experts are warning that a sharp price correction is looming on the horizon. That is to say, a major housing market crash is coming, and that's what we're going to expose in this video.

The U.S. real estate sector is completely out of whack. On one hand, as a significant chunk of the population remains unemployed or experiencing steep financial setbacks, nearly 10 million Americans can't pay their rent. While on the other hand, those who managed to stay employed throughout the current economic recession have been frantically looking to buy houses, but there are just not enough homes for sale. According to the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, Robert Dietz, some underlying causes for this imbalance is what he calls "the five L's," which stand for labor, land, lending, lumber, and laws.

The labor issue started after the previous housing crash, when a lot of construction workers decided to leave the market. Land has also been incredibly expensive, and that's an obvious obstacle for building companies, which leads us to the lending issue because now getting loans isn't as simple and easy as it used to be, so these companies are facing extra strains to start construction projects. On top of that, lumber prices are through the roof, having hiked 180% in less than a year, adding almost $25,000 to the cost of a house. Another problem is zoning laws. With so many rules in the way of home building, in addition to all the previously cited factors, companies are entirely overwhelmed.

When rents and home prices start to move in opposite directions, that's a clear sign that the housing bubble is inflating. In January alone, which is considered a slow month for the market, home prices increased 14 percent compared to the same time last year, and sales climbed 24 percent, regardless of an unemployment rate that was roughly twice as high. As the pace of home price appreciation is fast outstripping wage growth, determinants are once again setting up the stage for a stunning housing market crash.

The market is registering artificially inflated home valuations that are justified by estimates that distort our economic reality, which means things are getting increasingly unsustainable, and very soon prices will be forced to a correction. The price run-up is going to choke off first-time buyers for a prolonged period of time and the more the bubble expands, the sharper the correction will have to be. The affordability crisis will not only weigh upon the market's future but also prevent millions of Americans to build up wealth and become extremely financially vulnerable.

Without first-time buyers, the market's long-term growth is put in jeopardy. Moreover, another major concern is rising mortgage rates. As the economy reopens, the trillions injected into the economy will create an inflationary surge that will force policymakers to push interest rates up in order to cool off the overheated economy. That will cause a sudden drop in property prices because the threat of rising inflation will burst all asset bubbles that have been artificially fueled by printed money, the housing bubble included.

Now, we are right in the middle of a global “everything” bubble. And past experiences suggest that when interest rates start to rapidly soar, and easy money stops flowing into the markets, bubbles start popping. The best-case scenario would be the occurrence of a housing market crash happening in isolation from other asset crashes. But as we discussed in previous videos, all signs point to the simultaneous bust of the real estate, stock, and bonds market.

As the nation stays engaged in a budget and monetary policy stimulus experiment of epic proportions, the rest of the world will soon find out what happens to the global economy when America succumbs to an inflationary fever. Unfortunately, there is no reason to believe that any of this will end well."

Musical Interlude: 2002, "The Calling"

Full screen recommended.
2002, "The Calling"

"A Look to the Heavens"

“To some, the outline of the open cluster of stars M6 resembles a butterfly. M6, also known as NGC 6405, spans about 20 light-years and lies about 2,000 light years distant. M6 can best be seen in a dark sky with binoculars towards the constellation of Scorpius, coving about as much of the sky as the full moon.
Like other open clusters, M6 is composed predominantly of young blue stars, although the brightest star is nearly orange. M6 is estimated to be about 100 million years old. Determining the distance to clusters like M6 helps astronomers calibrate the distance scale of the universe.”

Edward Abbey, "Benedicto"

"Benedicto"

“May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view. May your mountains rise into and above the clouds. May your rivers flow without end, meandering through pastoral valleys tinkling with bells, past temples and castles and poets' towers into a dark primeval forest where tigers belch and monkeys howl, through miasmal and mysterious swamps and down into a desert of red rock, blue mesas, domes and pinnacles and grottos of endless stone, and down again into a deep vast ancient unknown chasm where bars of sunlight blaze on profiled cliffs, where deer walk across the white sand beaches, where storms come and go as lightning clangs upon the high crags, where something strange and more beautiful and more full of wonder than your deepest dreams waits for you - beyond that next turning of the canyon walls.”
- Edward Abbey

Chet Raymo, “Roofs”

“Roofs”
by Chet Raymo

"It would be well, perhaps, if we were to spend more of our days and nights without any obstruction between us and the celestial bodies, if the poet did not speak so much from under a roof, or the saint dwell there so long." Good advice, Mr. Thoreau.

I came here to this island for its unobstructed sky. Built a house called Starlight House. I'm no poet or saint, but I settled in to nurse what slender gifts I have. The sky has not disappointed. Except occasionally. We have just come off a rare four-day string of cloudy days, and the celestial bodies have been sorely missed, especially full-moon rises over the sea. Rare enough to make one wonder what history would have been like had the Earth been permanently shrouded in cloud.

What of poetry? What of sanctity? What of science? But, you say, we have lifted ourselves above the clouds. By now we would have seen the stars. And been as astonished by what we saw as stout Cortez and all his men on that peak in Darien.

Not yet, I think. The origins of science and math are so intimately linked with observations of celestial bodies that I think it entirely reasonable to suppose that the advent of space exploration would have been delayed on a cloud-covered Earth, by at least a century, likely longer. We would still be waiting, in ignorance, for that greatest of all revelations.”

"Don't Let Yesterday..."


"Health, Wealth and What Kills Most of Us

"Health, Wealth and What Kills Most of Us
by Charles Hugh Smith

"Longtime correspondent J.F. (MD) recently shared a fascinating graphic ranking the leading causes of death in the U.S. (2016 data, pre-pandemic) compared to searches on Google and what the media reports. (see chart below) Note that this data isn't a survey asking people to rank the leading causes of death, but it does reflect what health topics they were interested in finding more about via web searches.
Click image for larger size.
The media coverage of each cause of death is also not a representation of what the media presents as the leading causes of death; it's a reflection of the quantity of media coverage of each cause of death. I'm making these stipulations because this reminded me of a similar chart which depicts three different views of wealth inequality in the U.S.: (see chart below)

1. The actual distribution of wealth.
2. What survey respondents thought was the actual distribution of wealth.
3. What survey respondents thought was the ideal distribution of wealth.
Click image for larger size.
This survey made quite a media splash when it was published a few years ago because wealth inequality was so much more extreme than what people thought and what they reckoned as ideal. "Economic Inequality: It's Far Worse Than You Think:" The great divide between our beliefs, our ideals, and reality. 

Here's the source research: "(Mis)perceptions of Inequality"
And here is a typical research presentation of just how extreme wealth inequality has become in the U.S.: "Middle Class Now Holds Less Wealth than Top 1 Percent"

Returning to the causes of death chart, note the remarkable disparity between the leading cause of death, heart disease, and the search and media coverage of heart disease. While heart disease causes almost a third of all deaths, the search results and media coverages were tiny fractions of the total searches/coverage.

Cancer has a higher profile, appearing in searches somewhat in proportion to its ranking as the #2 cause of death, also about a third. Media coverage of cancer was modest but far more significant than the coverage of heart disease. Not surprisingly, the most dramatic and tragic causes of death - suicide, homicide and terrorism - attracted the most media coverage, and a larger percentage of searches than the actual percentages of causes of death.

This may reflect the higher media coverage, the human interest in life-and-death situations and perhaps the often-noted skewing of our perceptions of risk to the dramatic (terrorism, aircraft crashes, shark attacks, etc.) rather than the mundane (heart disease).

I noticed an interesting "missing link" in the causes of death data: no mention was made of alcohol impairment as a cause of death, even though alcohol is clearly a factor in deaths from disease, homicide and motor-vehicle accidents. J.F. noted that half of all homicides involve alcohol impairment: "Strong Alcohol Policies Help Reduce Alcohol-involved Homicides" (sciencedaily.com)

"In the U.S., between 40 and 50 percent of homicides involve the use of alcohol by either the victim or perpetrator, and more than half involve people who are significantly impaired by alcohol, which means that their blood alcohol levels are at or above 0.08 percent, the legal limit for driving." About 30% of all vehicle fatalities involve alcohol impairment as well.

This means alcohol impairment is a direct causal influence in 8,000 murders and between 10,000 and 12,000 traffic deaths each year, plus the 95,000 people who die every year of alcohol-related diseases - a total of around 115,000 people annually.

That puts alcohol as the 7th leading cause of death in the U.S. If we include smoking as a key cause of respiratory diseases (160,000 deaths annually, the 4th leading cause) and lung cancer (142,000 deaths annually), tobacco and alcohol are key factors in 300,000+ deaths annually, right behind heart disease and all cancers. "Deaths from Excessive Alcohol Use in the U.S." (CDC) What are the leading causes of death in the US? 

In stark contrast, cannabis use has no statistical effect on mortality. Though various authorities continue to claim cannabis is a "gateway drug," alcohol isn't a gateway; it's a major cause of death all by itself. The legal substance kills 115,000 users a year, and the illegal substance (Schedule 1, as dangerous as heroin according to our federal government) has no discernable impact on mortality.

"The Health Effects of Cannabis and Cannabinoids: The Current State of Evidence and Recommendations for Research." (NCBI): "After adjusting for confounders, including alcohol use, cigarette smoking, and demographic factors, individuals who reported using cannabis, but not other substances (i.e., cocaine, heroin, hallucinogens, inhalants), at baseline were not at increased risk of all-cause mortality compared with individuals who reported not using cannabis or other substances at baseline." "After accounting for potential confounders, Andreasson and Allebeck (1990) found no statistically significant association between cannabis use and mortality."

Prohibition of alcohol didn't work as intended, and neither does the Prohibition of cannabis. Public health education, economic opportunities and healthier choices are the policy keys, not 10-year prison sentences.

This raises the question: how large a role does behavior play in the causes of death? Although it's an inexact calculation for obvious reasons, it's been estimated that roughly 2/3 of our health and longevity results from our behaviors and environment and only a third is the result of genetics.

The low search/media profile of heart disease suggests it's accepted almost as background noise rather than the #1 cause of death that is largely preventable by behavioral means: diet and fitness. Many cancers also have behavioral factors. It's been well established that deficiencies in diet and fitness dramatically increase the risks of many cancers.

J.F. is a physician, and he reminds me that high blood pressure is a key indicator of cardio-vascular risk. You've probably heard this from your doctor and from health-related literature/ research. In past posts, I've covered the remarkable discoveries being made about the profound impacts of the microbiome on our health. All the research on the importance of the microbiome reaches the same conclusion: the more diverse real food rich in fiber, the better.

Mental Health May Depend on Creatures in the Gut: The microbiome thrives on a diverse diet of real (non-processed) foods rich in fiber. The connection between wealth and health is well-established, and while much of the correlation is attributed to the high cost of healthy food, beans and brown rice are not expensive, and neither are ethnic vegetables in season. Widening how we shop and cook need not cost a fortune. Rather, once the money being squandered on fast food (garbage in, garbage out) is spent on real food (assuming every ounce is eaten rather than thrown away), household spending on food may well drop dramatically.


I've also covered the dramatic positive effects of regular modest exercise. As a generality, the 80/20 Rule (the Pareto Distribution) applies to exercise: the first 20% of regular exercise generates 80% of the positive results. For example, walking an extra 2 miles a day will generate most of the benefits gained by walking more than 2 miles.

As we all know, the trick is to form habits of fitness that are akin to brushing our teeth - or even better, of course, find types of fitness that we enjoy. If health is wealth, and it most certainly is the highest form of wealth, then we would be well-served to take charge of our health-wealth in terms of what behaviors we can sustainably modify that will increase our health-wealth over the long-term. (Or put another way, what can we do to lower the risk factors that are within our control?)

Our choices and habits have an enormous impact on our health and health risks. Even modest changes can have life-changing positive results over time once they become our new set-point."

Gregory Mannarino, "Markets, A Look Ahead: Updates, Expect Stocks To Gain"

"Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!
Your guide:
Gregory Mannarino, AM 3/28/21:
"Markets, A Look Ahead: Updates, Expect Stocks To Gain"

The Daily "Near You?"

Hastings, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. Thanks for stopping by!

"In the Inbox"

"In the Inbox"

"From: Coordinator of Volunteer Services
"We have a young man, thirty-six, on hospice who has a very young child. They want someone to help him do a life review and perhaps put some pictures together for he and his wife so the child will know him. Call me if you are willing to do this."

"The next time, friend, your life seems too hard, check your Inbox."
- Jose Orez

“The Stuff of (Disturbing) Dreams”

“The Stuff of (Disturbing) Dreams”
by Dr. Michael J. Breus

“Dreams are one of the most fascinating -  and least understood -  aspects of sleep. Though science has offered possibilities, we don't yet understand the purpose of dreaming. Dreams can encompass a dramatic range of emotion, and subject matter. Some dreams seem plucked directly from our everyday lives. Most of us have had the experience of waking up shaking our heads at the odd and sometimes amusing circumstances that unfolded while dreaming.

Dreams can contend with deep emotions, dealing with loss and reunion, anger, sorrow and fear. Bad dreams and nightmares are among the most startling and emotionally potent of remembered dreams. Even a partially remembered disturbing dream can linger in our waking minds. But what do we know about this phenomenon of disturbed dreaming? And what's the difference between a bad dream and a nightmare?

Much of the research into disturbed dreaming has focused on the neurological activity of these dreams, as a way to investigate the function and purpose of dreaming. Other research has focused on the connections between disturbed dreams and psychological conditions, such as post-traumatic stress disorder, and anxiety disorders. Less attention has been paid to the content of disturbed dreams, in particular the disturbing dreams that occur as a normal aspect of sleep life among a broad and varied population. We know that nightmares and bad dreams are common experiences -  but we don't know much about what these dreams contain.

What distinguishes a nightmare from a bad dream? One common theory is that nightmares are more emotionally disturbing and intense versions of bad dreams, a more severe form of the same essential phenomenon. One way nightmares are often distinguished from dreams is in whether the dream causes a person to wake -  whether out of fear, or to put an end to the dream.

New research investigates the content of disturbed dreams, in an effort to gain a better understanding of what emotions, triggers and themes propel these dreaming experiences, and also to help further illuminate potential distinctions between bad dreams and nightmares. Researchers at Quebec's Université de Montréal recruited 572 volunteers, both men and women, to keep daily dream reports of all remembered dreams -  good and bad -  for anywhere from two to five consecutive weeks. The reports included details about dreams' narratives, the emotions present and their level of intensity, as well as the presence of sleep terrors -  brief, highly intense periods of fright during dreams, that are often accompanied by actual screaming or movement like sleepwalking. Researchers considered episodes of sleep terrors to be distinct from nightmares.

They collected nearly 10,000 dream reports on dreams of all types. From this collection, researchers identified 431 bad dreams and 253 nightmares, experienced by 331 participants, which met the criteria for evaluation. Researchers excluded dreams that were too vague to analyze, as well as dream experiences that seemed to be sleep terrors. They also excluded nightmares and bad dreams experienced by people who reported having only these two types of dreams. Researchers used the result of waking from the dream as the distinguishing characteristic between bad dreams and nightmares: nightmares resulted in awakenings, and bad dreams did not.

Researchers defined several themes for volunteers to use in identifying the content of their dreams. The themes covered common territory for disturbed dreams, including physical aggression; being chased; interpersonal conflicts; accidents; failures and helplessness; evil presences; disasters and calamities; apprehension; worry; and health concerns. Volunteers were allowed to identify both primary and secondary themes.

They also established emotional categories to further define dream content, including fear, anger, sadness, confusion, disgust, guilt and frustration. Researchers used scales of both rationality and "everydayness" to evaluate levels of bizarreness in disturbed dreams. Their results give insight into the complex emotional and thematic landscape of disturbing dreams, as well as new possibilities for delineation between bad dreams and nightmares:

• Nightmares occurred more rarely than bad dreams, according to results. Of a total of 9,796 dreams collected, nightmares made up 2.9 percent, while bad dreams accounted for 10.8 percent of all dreams.
• The most common themes in both bad dreams and nightmares were physical aggression, interpersonal conflicts and failure or helplessness. More than 80 percent of nightmares, and more than 70 percent of bad dreams contained one or more of these themes, compared to 38.2 percent of non-disturbing dreams.
• Fear was the most common emotion reported in both nightmares and bad dreams. Among nightmares, 65.1 percent contained fear as the main emotion, as did 45.2 percent of bad dreams.
• Fear was not only more common in nightmares, it also took a larger proportional share of emotional content in nightmares than in bad dreams.
• Though fear was the most prevalent emotion, nearly half of all disturbing dreams had primary emotions other than fear.
• Volunteers reported nightmares having significantly higher intensity than bad dreams.
• Nightmares contained more aggression, more frequent experiences of failure, as well as more unfortunate and negative conclusions, than bad dreams. Nightmares were also more bizarre.
• Physical aggression was 1.5 times more frequent in nightmares than in bad dreams. Evil presences and experiences of being chased were other commonly reported themes of nightmares.
• Bad dreams overall contained a wider range of themes than nightmares. After physical aggression, interpersonal conflicts and failure, bad dreams also included themes related to health concerns and apprehension and worry.
• The thematic differences between nightmares and dreams suggested to researchers that nightmares are more likely to contain threats to basic physical security and survival, while bad dreams are more apt to grapple with a broader range of psychological anxieties.

Researchers found some interesting differences between men's and women's dreams. Both men and women dreamed about the same basic range of thematic and emotional content. But men's nightmares were more heavily populated with themes of disaster and calamity, while women's nightmares were more than twice as likely to contain interpersonal conflicts.

One particularly unexpected finding? Researchers compared the presence of negative events and outcomes in everyday dreams to disturbing dreams. They found nightmares and bad dreams contained more aggressions and misfortunes, and contained fewer positive, friendly aspects than everyday dreams. However, bad dreams and nightmares contained less failure than everyday dreams. This suggests, says researchers, that our disturbing dreams deal less often with issues of competence than more ordinary, less overtly upsetting everyday dreams.

Fascinating stuff, isn't it? These results give further credence to the theory that nightmares are a rarer, stranger and more intense form of bad dreams, but that both types of disturbed dreaming are versions of the same basic experience. It's not clear what purpose these dreams serve, or what relationship the content of our disturbing dreams may have to issues and concerns in our waking lives. But these findings should make scientists -  and the rest of us -  eager to discover more about our dreaming lives. Sweet Dreams...”
Michael J. Breus, PhD, The Sleep Doctor® 
Related:
“9 Things You Probably Didn't Know About Dreaming”

"I Believe..."

 

Musical Interlude: Peder B. Helland, "Dance of Life"

Full screen highly recommended.
Peder B. Helland,"Dance of Life"
for relaxation and meditation.

Incredibly beautiful...

"How It Really Is"

“You Now Have A Shorter Attention Span Than a Goldfish”

“You Now Have A Shorter Attention Span Than a Goldfish”
by Time

"No longer can we boast about 12 seconds of coherent thought. The average attention span for the notoriously ill-focused goldfish is nine seconds, but according to a study from 2015 by Microsoft Corp., people now generally lose concentration after eight seconds, highlighting the affects of an increasingly digitalized lifestyle on the brain.

Researchers in Canada surveyed 2,000 participants and studied the brain activity of 112 others using electroencephalograms (EEGs). Microsoft found that since the year 2000 (or about when the mobile revolution began) the average attention span dropped from 12 seconds to eight seconds. “Heavy multi-screeners find it difficult to filter out irrelevant stimuli — they’re more easily distracted by multiple streams of media,” the report read. On the positive side, the report says our ability to multitask has drastically improved in the mobile age.

Microsoft theorized that the changes were a result of the brain’s ability to adapt and change itself over time and a weaker attention span may be a side effect of evolving to a mobile Internet. The survey also confirmed generational differences for mobile use; for example, 77% of people aged 18 to 24 responded “yes” when asked, “When nothing is occupying my attention, the first thing I do is reach for my phone,” compared with only 10% of those over the age of 65. And now congratulate yourself for concentrating long enough to make it through this article.”

"Not Such An Easy Business..."

“Over the years you get to see what a struggle life is for most people, how tough it is, how easy it is to be judgmental and criticize and stand outside of situations and impart your wisdom and judgment. But over the decades I've got more tolerant of people's flaws and mistakes. Everybody makes a lot of them. When you're younger you feel: "Hey, this person is evil" or "This person is a jerk" or stupid or "What's wrong with them?" Then you go through life and you think: "Well, it's not so easy." There's a lot of mystery and suffering and complication. Everybody's out there trying to do the best they can. And it's not such an easy business.”
- Woody Allen

"My Humanity..."

"My humanity is bound up in yours, 
for we can only be human together."
- Desmond Tutu