"Here’s What’s Coming in 2021"

"Here’s What’s Coming in 2021"

by Brian Maher

"The calendar has scrolled to 2021, mercifully. The plague year has ended. As a financial newsletter, we are duty-bound to give our annual market forecast - such as it is. So today we fetch our crystal ball from storage… blow away the dust... and gaze for images of the year ahead. How long will the virus menace us? Will the economy continue its recovery? Where will the stock market end the year? Gold? Bitcoin? The answers - the guaranteed answers - anon. But before we glimpse how markets will end 2021, let us glimpse how they began 2021… If today is a preview, the stock market is in for heavy weather this year.

Stocks Open 2021 in the Red: The Dow Jones shed 382 points. The S&P gave back 55; the Nasdaq, 189 points of its own. Gold, meantime, had itself a day at the races... up a rollicking $51.50 in all. Bitcoin presently goes at $31,083 - plenty handsome considering it was under $20,000 three weeks prior - but not as handsome as yesterday’s $34,339.

What strange, occult forces frightened the horses today? CNBC offers its diagnosis: "Data compiled by Johns Hopkins University showed more than 20 million Covid-19 infections have been confirmed in the U.S. Several cases of a new coronavirus strain have also been confirmed across the country. Globally, more than 85 million cases have been confirmed."

Just so. Yet infections have been on the jump for months. Stocks nonetheless posted record highs to close the year. Why the sudden jolt? And are markets not aware of the vaccines? Here CNBC fishes up another clue - in our estimate, a stronger clue: "Wall Street is also keeping an eye on Georgia as the state prepared for a Senate runoff election on Tuesday, which could give Democrats a majority in the chamber."

A Blue Wave? Online betting market Predictit presently places the odds of a Democratic sweep near 50%. Last Thursday those same odds came in at 35%. That is, the odds of a “blue wave” have surged within the space of days. The joker card is in play. And so the stock market is off-guard ahead of tomorrow’s runoff election… off-balance… off-center.

But we are not concerned with the transient shakes and fevers of the stock market. Its daily moods fail to fluster us. They entertain us, it is true… as a circus or a joust might entertain us. But they do not fascinate us. It is the longer view that seizes our interest.

Does the House of Cards Come Down in 2021? Daily Reckoning contributor James Howard Kunstler has peered into his own crystal ball. It is filled with horrific scenes, dismal premonitions of 2021. Dow 10,000? Nasdaq 3,000? S&P 550? A 40% GDP plunge? A return of the black plague? These and other ghoulish visions parade before his disbelieving eyes:

• The stock market will enter long, deep asset value deflation through first and second quarters and bottom-bounce the rest of the year. S & P falls to 550 range; DJI under 10,000; Nasdaq under 3000...

• U.S. GDP down by 40-percent year-end 2021.

• U.S. oil production (minus natural gas liquids) will be down by 40-percent, year-end 2021.

• The banking system will be thrown into disarray due to the non-payment of rents and mortgages. The federal government will intervene with direct renter relief payments. Homeowners in default will be allowed to remain in their houses on a provisional basis (which is never reconciled).

• A bubonic plague outbreak will spread among the homeless of Los Angeles as rats proliferate in their encampments.

• Pension funds collapse as the broken chain of rent-and-mortgage payments destroys Real Estate Investment Trusts.

• The Federal government will be forced to organize massive food giveaway programs.

• General Motors, Chrysler, and Ford will once again seek bankruptcy protection. This time, their assets will be sold and reorganized into smaller companies. No bailouts.

• Covid virus fades from the scene by the 3rd quarter, but economic carnage remains. A huge amount of restaurant equipment will be sold for dimes on the dollar.

• Bitcoin “Hodlers” will become Bitcoin “Sodlers” as cryptos tank.

How many of James’ projections will manifest this year? All of them? None of them? Two of them?

Two Scenarios: Another Daily Reckoning contributor - Charles Hugh Smith - divines no specific 2021 events. He merely holds out two scenarios. The one scenario is hopeful. The second is not hopeful. Yet even the most hopeful outcome is dire, grim. Here Charles sketches the scene in very dark colors: "The most hopeful scenario for 2021 is that the obsolete, inefficient, ineffective and sclerotic sectors and agencies, no matter how sacrosanct, collapse or downsize quickly. This drastically reduces the cost and pain to levels that the economy as a whole can absorb.

The worst-case scenario is our weak and/or corrupt government and central bank keep all the doomed zombies on life support, a process that bleeds the economy of adaptability, flexibility, innovation and resilience. The path of least resistance, the politically expedient path - over-borrowing and devaluing the currency by over-issuing "money" - leads to decay and collapse. There is no other possible result, no other possible outcome."

We have little doubt about which outcome officials will pursue. It is not the most hopeful scenario… incidentally. So now we come to our own tub-thumping predictions for 2021 - predictions guaranteed to knock you to the floor…

Three Stunning Predictions:

Prediction No. 1: In 2021 the stock market will rise. Or fall. Or - or - it will end the year precisely where it began.

Prediction No. 2: Bitcoin, gold, oil, United States Treasury notes and all remaining assets will rise, fall... or hold steady.

Prediction No. 3: The economy will expand in 2021 - unless it contracts. Bear in mind: the economy may do neither. There you are - three thundering predictions for 2021.

And fortune favors the bold.

Sure Bets: But you say you are dissatisfied with our cowardly refusal to hazard a guess? You want specific predictions? Then specific predictions you will have...

The virus will cease to be a menace by summer. The economy will expand 2.3% this year. The budget deficit will come in at $2.41 trillion. Interest rates will remain at zero. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet will near $9.77 trillion. The Dow Jones will close the year at 28,617. Gold will close the year at $3,893.51. Bitcoin will close 2021 at $47,588.26.

There is 2021 for you - down to the last jot, down to the last tittle - down to the last decimal point. We advise you to invest accordingly. Of course, The Daily Reckoning is a free publication. We charge nothing for the advice posted above. And this you must admit: At least you are receiving the advice you pay for…"

dailyreckoning.com

Musical Interlude: Dan Fogelberg, "Nether Lands"

Dan Fogelberg, "Nether Lands"

Full screen recommended.

"A Look to the Heavens"

“These three bright nebulae are often featured in telescopic tours of the constellation Sagittarius and the crowded starfields of the central Milky Way. In fact, 18th century cosmic tourist Charles Messier cataloged two of them; M8, the large nebula left of center, and colorful M20 on the right. The third, NGC 6559, is above M8, separated from the larger nebula by a dark dust lane. All three are stellar nurseries about five thousand light-years or so distant. 

The expansive M8, over a hundred light-years across, is also known as the Lagoon Nebula. M20's popular moniker is the Trifid. Glowing hydrogen gas creates the dominant red color of the emission nebulae, with contrasting blue hues, most striking in the Trifid, due to dust reflected starlight. The colorful skyscape recorded with telescope and digital camera also includes one of Messier's open star clusters, M21, just above the Trifid.”

- http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/astropix.html

•

"When I heard the learn’d astronomer,

When the proofs, the figures, were ranged

in columns before me,

When I was shown the charts and diagrams,

to add, divide, and measure them,

When I sitting heard the astronomer where

he lectured with much applause in the lecture-room,

How soon unaccountable I became tired and sick,

Till rising and gliding out I wander’d off by myself,

In the mystical moist night-air, and from time to time,

Look’d up in perfect silence at the stars."

- Walt Whitman

"Man Has One Name..."

"Man has one name, and many more than two natures. But the essential 

two are these: that he shall strive to impose order on chaos, 

and that he shall strive to take advantage of chaos…

A third element of man's nature is this: 

that he shall not understand what he is doing."

- John Brunner

“Some Things You Need To Know”

“Some Things You Need To Know”

by Marc Chernoff

“I know you’re reading this. And I want you to know I’m writing this for you. Others will be confused. They will think I’m writing this for them. But I’m not. This one’s for you.

I want you to know that life is not easy. Every day is an unpredictable challenge. Some days it can be difficult to simply get out of bed in the morning. To face reality and put on that smile. But I want you to know, your smile has kept me going on more days than I can count. Never forget that, even through the toughest times, you are incredible. You really are. So smile more often.  You have so many reasons to. Time and again, my reason is you.

You won’t always be perfect. Neither will I. Because nobody is perfect, and nobody deserves to be perfect. Nobody has it easy, everybody has issues. You will never know exactly what I’m going through. And I will never know exactly what you’re going through. We are all fighting our own unique war. But we are fighting through it simultaneously, together.

Whenever somebody discredits you, and tells you that you can’t do something, keep in mind that they are speaking from within the boundaries of their own limitations. Ignore them. Don’t give in. In this crazy world that’s trying to make you like everyone else, find the courage to keep being your awesome self. And when they laugh at you for being different, laugh back at them for being the same.

Remember, our courage doesn’t always roar aloud. Sometimes it’s the quiet voice at the end of the day whispering, “I will try again tomorrow.” So stand strong. Things turn out best for people who make the best out of the way things turn out. And I am committed to making the best of it along with you.”

- https://www.marcandangel.com/

The Poet: Aldous Huxley, “Lightly My Darling”

“Lightly My Darling”

"It’s dark because you are trying too hard. 

Lightly child, lightly. Learn to do everything lightly. 

Yes, feel lightly even though you’re feeling deeply. 

Just lightly let things happen and lightly cope with them. 

I was so preposterously serious in those days, 

such a humorless little prig. 

Lightly, lightly - it’s the best advice ever given me. 

When it comes to dying even. 

Nothing ponderous, or portentous, or emphatic. 

No rhetoric, no tremolos, 

no self conscious persona putting on its 

celebrated imitation of Christ or Little Nell. 

And of course, no theology, no metaphysics. 

Just the fact of dying and the fact of the clear light. 

So throw away your baggage and go forward. 

There are quicksands all about you, sucking at your feet, 

trying to suck you down into fear and self-pity and despair. 

That’s why you must walk so lightly. 

Lightly my darling, 

on tiptoes and no luggage, 

not even a sponge bag, 

completely unencumbered."

~ Aldous Huxley

"Giving Up the Ghost"

"Giving Up the Ghost"

by Jim Kunstler

"Things are shaking loose. Secrets are flying out of black boxes. Shots have been fired. The center is not holding because the center is no longer there, only a black hole where the center used to be, and, within it, the shriekings of lost souls. Will the United States go missing this week, or fight its way out of the chaos and darkness?

Whatever occurs in this strange week of confrontation, Joe Biden will not be leading any part of it. Where has he been since Christmas? Back to hiding in the basement? Did the American people elect a ghost? Even if this storm blows over, could Joe Biden possibly claim any legitimacy in the Oval Office? And then what happens with the rest of the story - which is an epic economic convulsion sharper than the Great Depression - as time is unsuspended and the year 2021 actually unspools?

Only the bare outlines of this week’s fateful game are visible. Mr. Trump has not conceded the election. An action will play out in congress under rarely-used constitutional rules as to how the electoral college votes are awarded to whom. The rancor around this action is already epic. Few of the political players are beyond suspicion of dark deals and shifty allegiances. Persistent rumor has the president laying out a royal flush of deadly information about his antagonists, enough to make heads explode among the formerly cocksure and vaporize the narrative they’ve been running for four years.

A whole lot of people are converging in the nation’s capital at midweek, maybe even the touted million. It is a moment, possibly, not unlike the Bastille in Paris, 1789. They will be clamoring right outside Congress as the electoral vote ceremony proceeds. If the battle is not joined in the chamber, it’s a little hard to believe the crowd will just heave a million sighs, trudge back to their cars, and drive quietly home.

Senator Ted Cruz has come up with a pretty sound plan: a ten-day emergency audit of the balloting with an electoral commission consisting of five Senators, five House Members, and five Supreme Court Justices - to consider and resolve the disputed returns. The proposal is based on the 1877 procedure for resolving the contested Hayes-Tilden election. “Once completed, individual states would evaluate the Commission’s findings and could convene a special legislative session to certify a change in their vote, if needed,” the proposal stated. Naturally, the Democratic Party’s news media handmaidens denounced it as “embarrassing” - which raises the question: who exactly will be embarrassed if the plan goes ahead?

On Sunday, Mr. Trump had a telephone call with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, ostensibly to discuss efforts made by his office to authenticate the validity of the Nov. 3rd balloting in that state. This is being portrayed by The WashPo, The New York Times, and the rest of the gang as a virtual replay of the Ukraine phone call that eventuated in the 2019 impeachment. Consider that the notorious Ukraine phone call was an attempt to inquire about the influence-peddling of Hunter Biden at the time when his father was vice-president. Does anyone doubt now, a year-and-a-half later, with the release of Hunter B’s laptop evidence, that there was some legitimate concern there? Might anyone suspect that there is also some genuine concern about the Georgia balloting - and Mr. Raffensperger’s failure to audit the vote? Did Mr. Raffensperger stupidly walk into a trap in that phone call? I doubt that the call was casual or impulsive on the president’s part.

What I wonder, given the eerie silence at Joe Biden’s end of things, is whether there is some negotiation underway for Mr. Biden to concede the election before events move forward into official inquiries. I wouldn’t be hugely surprised if that is the case. A US election has never concluded under such an enormous cloud, and with such a show of weakness by the putative winner. Joe Biden is but a ghost in the machine, and the machine is infernally corrupt, and now just about everybody knows it, including the figures fighting so hard to pretend that it isn’t so. Something like a war is underway both within the USA and from without. Mr. Trump is a war president and he’s not shirking his duty. War goes where it will and a genuine leader goes out to meet it where it comes."

- https://kunstler.com/

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

"Danger..."

“At the approach of danger there are always two voices that speak with equal force in the heart of man: one very reasonably tells the man to consider the nature of the danger and the means of avoiding it; the other, even more reasonable, says that it is too painful and harassing to think of the danger, since it is not a man’s power to provide for everything and escape from the general march of events; and that it is therefore better to turn aside from the painful subject till it has come, and to think of what is pleasant. In solitude a man generally yields to the first voice; in society to the second.”

- Leo Tolstoy, “War and Peace”

○

“All our mortal lives are set in danger and perplexity: one day to prosper,

and the next – who knows? When all is well, then look for rocks ahead.”

- Sophoclese, “Philoctetes”

○

A little light reading from Tolstoy…

Freely download “War and Peace”, by Leo Tolstoy, here:

- https://planetpdf.com/planetpdf/

"The Frogs Will Boil Themselves"

"The Frogs Will Boil Themselves"

by Jeff Thomas

"There’s a well-known old fable that describes a frog being boiled alive. It states that if a frog is dropped in boiling water, it will hop out. But if it’s placed in lukewarm water, it will be comfortable. Then, if the heat is turned up slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be boiled to death. In political terms, this translates into a slow increase, say, the slow rise of taxation or the gradual removal of freedoms.

But there’s another way to boil the electorate of a country: have them become willing participants in their own demise. This method is a common practice in many countries, particularly the US. Americans have repeatedly been conned into begging for their second amendment rights to be diminished. The method is to make use of the media to shine a light on the horrific murder of innocents through the use of firearms.

In recent years, this effort has been ramped up through regular senseless massacres of people, particularly children, in public places, such as schools and movie theaters. Whether or not these incidents are actually created by the ruling elite is a moot point. What matters is that their proliferation has been extremely effective in providing the media will the fodder to repeatedly ask, "When is the Government going to make the possession of guns illegal so that the killing will stop?"

Many citizens are wary of such suggestions, but countless others quickly take the bait and demand that the Government "do something." Eventually, this becomes a point of pride for many citizens - a badge of righteousness - for standing up for those who have been victims. Through such efforts, the US Constitution has slowly lost its ability to serve as a limitation to Government power. A proliferation of laws that redefine what the Constitution means has, over time, eviscerated the Constitution.

Not surprisingly, those who support this effort are largely liberal, which creates a backlash from those who are conservative and vehemently oppose any erosion of the Constitution. Those who are liberal may reinforce their beliefs by watching propaganda networks on television and regularly pump up the dangers of the Constitution. Likewise, conservatives have their propaganda network, which can be counted on to reinforce their views.

Whichever side Americans take on such issues, they would be wise to keep an eye out for what may be the next development in this wrangle. Those who dutifully watch the liberal "news" networks may soon see pundits despairing that the failings of the aging Constitution must be dealt with. It must be updated if it is to serve changing needs. After all, the Founding Fathers cannot be blamed that they didn’t foresee the existence of AK-47s. Surely, it falls to the present administration to "correct" the failings of the well-intentioned old document.

Conservatives, of course, are likely to be more cautious, but what we may see is for the pundits on their favored network to express frustration that the Left is seeking to erode traditional values and must, at some point be stopped, or the country will be destroyed. There can be no question that the Founding Fathers were correct - that unless the Constitution and its amendments are not clarified once and for all as to what they were meant to express, American liberty is at stake.

Americans, like citizens of most countries, love a good battle between good and evil. Every four years, a massive three-ring circus is staged in which the political leader is decided and both sports teams - Democrats and Republicans - go all out in seeking a victory on the playing field. However, in most cases, neither candidate is trustworthy or qualified for the job, but this is of no importance. The essence of the battle is not to select a wise and capable leader but to win.

Similarly, once the populace has been wound up on both sides to believe that only a pitched battle can "re-establish the Constitution" or "modernize the Constitution," the battle shall be met. At present, this eventuality may seem mere speculation. But then, the media campaign has not yet begun.

At present, all that exists is pundits in the media bemoaning the injustice of the present situation. What is needed is the prediction of pundits that, whatever side an individual takes on the issue, his side is sure to win.

On the liberal side, social warriors must come out daily in the media with demands for change and the certainty of success once the battle has begun. On the conservative side, pundits need to guarantee that the battle will be won once and for all, but that the situation is in dire need of immediate attention, or all may be lost.

The result will not be immediate, but, with repetition, eventually, the American people on both sides of the fence may well not only suggest, but demand that the matter be sorted. At that point, the Government may announce that a Constitutional Review will be undertaken. It would not matter that most of those making the demand are the pundits on the media networks. What would be presented would be that "a majority of Americans demand that the review take place as soon as possible."

Although at the time, the propaganda may imply that the review will be focused on one part of the Constitution, such as the Second Amendment, Americans will soon discover that the entire document is up for grabs. Under the terms of the review, all facets of the Constitution may be questioned.

Then what would the outcome be? Each side will hope that their elected representatives will emerge as the heroes, but that is not how politics works. In truth, elected leaders do not seek to serve the public but to dominate them. Invariably, their recommendations for change will be whatever transfers greater power to themselves.

Both Democratic and Republican members will argue forcefully for the rights of the American citizen. However, in the end, a "compromise" shall be made - one in which the rights of the populace are diminished and the Government has new powers to allow it to bypass the electorate in the future. If this does occur, the public will, in effect, "boil themselves." They will have demanded that the Government act, and, when the dust has settled, each side will claim some sort of victory but will fail to understand that they have brought about their own loss of rights.

It is hoped that, when the day comes that a Constitutional Review is proposed, Americans refuse to take the bait. The best you can and should do is to stay informed so that you can protect yourself in the best way possible."

- internationalman.com

The Daily "Near You?

 
Liberty, Maine, USA. Thanks for stopping by!

"I Remember..."

"I remember my youth and the feeling that will never come back any more, the feeling that I could last for ever, outlast the sea, the earth, and all men; the deceitful feeling that lures us on to joys, to perils, to love, to vain effort, to death; the triumphant conviction of strength, the heat of life in the handful of dust, the glow in the heart that with every year grows dim, grows cold, grows small, and expires, and expires, too soon, too soon, before life itself. "

- Joseph Conrad

This feels like a metaphor for the country now...

"The Point..."

 

"Where Did All the Fake Money Go?"

"Where Did All the Fake Money Go?"

By Bill Bonner

WEST RIVER, MARYLAND – "Our Christmas tree is still up. The eggnog still flows. We are not ready for 2021. We entered a new year on Friday. But there is still so much to figure out about the last one. It was the most preposterous year of our lives… and, we think, a real hinge point in our history. It will take historians many decades to decipher it… which is to say, to make up convenient and flattering lies about it. But here, today, with the corpse of 2020 still unburied… having barely cooled to room temperature… we will attempt a dissection. Trigger warning: It ain’t gonna be pretty.

Mathematical Conundrum: Let us begin by getting out the Sawzall to open up the cranial cavity. Surely, there was something wrong in there. It was supposed to be a Plague Year. Even at the end of it, our holiday festivities were greatly limited. Few friends or family stopped by for Christmas cheer. Our church held a virtual service on Christmas Eve. And BWI airport, where we went on New Year’s Day to drop off one of the children, was almost empty.

Early in the year, COVID-19 sent almost everyone into a panic. Already, there were signs of mental distress. All over the world, governments – rather than make a serious effort to identify and protect their vulnerable citizens – closed down their economies. Travel and leisure industries – any business where people congregate – were hit especially hard.

But they weren’t the only ones. Offices and parking lots emptied out. Gasoline sales slowed to a trickle. The whole economy tightened up. Instead of growing by 4%, as forecast, the global economy shrank by 4%.

In the U.S., the feds pretended to offset the real losses – which included some 30 million people losing their jobs – by printing and distributing fake money. During the entire year, the loss of income caused by the lockdowns toted to less than $300 billion. But the feds pumped an additional $4.4 trillion into the economy.

Dear readers will notice that the two numbers have little to do with each other. One explanation is that members of Congress cannot add and subtract. A better one is our chief insight for the year ahead: Inflate or die.

Third Option: The feds have gotten the nation into a classic debt trap. When you owe too much money, every setback is a crisis. You either borrow more… or you admit that you can’t pay your bills. But sovereign governments have a third option. They have “printing presses,” on which they can create the cash they need (thus inflating the currency). That does not solve the problem. But it distorts and delays it. And as it runs its course, it turns a simple, honest bankruptcy into a corrupt, catastrophic disaster.But we’ll get to that anon. For the moment, let’s just focus on 2020.

Rising Stocks: What happened to all that money the feds put into the system? Like water, it has to go somewhere. Some of it was used to buy drugs. Some bought new cars. Some paid off political debts and bought off cronies. Some went into normal consumer spending. But much more went into capital markets. For, while the Main Street economy turned down, Wall Street turned up. Worldwide, stocks were worth about $80 trillion when the crisis began. Less than a year later, they are worth $100 trillion.

Huh? How come stocks can be worth $20 trillion – 25% – more… in less than 12 months… while the companies they represent are seeing fewer sales and lower profits? In the U.S., earnings are nearly 30% below projections made at the start of 2020.

Pie in the Sky: And look at the electric car manufacturer Tesla. It ended the year at a valuation higher than all the other major automakers put together. It has cumulative losses of $6 billion… and no plausible way to ever be worth $6 billion, let alone $600 billion. At least Tesla makes something. There are other companies that have no products at all. Companies with neither products, sales, nor profits are supposedly worth more than some of the biggest titans of the Industrial Age.

Just look at QuantumScape. It is said to be developing a battery. But it has no battery… no sales… no showrooms… no service network… no revenue… and no profits. But just before Christmas, its market cap – the market value of all its shares – was almost as much as GM’s.

Over the holidays, we found we could buy a mince pie for $15, a price that had changed little from the previous year. At the beginning of 2020, one bitcoin sold for less than $8,000. So one bitcoin would have bought you 533 mince pies. By the end of the year, that same bitcoin would have paid for 2,000 pies. Mince pie has many things in it – sugar, salt, flower, meat, suet, molasses, apples, raisins, and God knows what else.

By contrast, Bitcoin has no physical being, no profits, no CEO, no press secretary, no coffee breaks, no enlightened, gender-conscious management, no sales, no office. Bitcoin has nothing. And yet, there it is… worth more than $30,000 per coin, and with a total market cap of $579 billion – almost equal to Tesla.

Pie-in-the-Sky Inflation: And that’s where the feds’ new money went. Not into mince pies. But into pie-in-the-sky inflation. Which makes us wonder even more about the gray matter of those handing out the fake money… and those buying the shares. Tomorrow, we probe deeper…"

- www.rogueeconomics.com

"2020 Was a Snack, 2021 Is the Main Course"

"2020 Was a Snack, 2021 Is the Main Course"

by Charles Hugh Smith

"One of the dishes at the banquet of consequences that will surprise a great many revelers is the systemic failure of the Federal Reserve's one-size-fits-all "solution" to every spot of bother: print another trillion dollars and give it to rapacious financiers and corporations.

Though 2020 is widely perceived as "the worst year ever," it was only a snack. The real banquet of consequences will be served in 2021. The reason 2020 was only a snack is that systems didn't break down in 2020. The reason 2021 is the main course is that systems will break down, and once broken, they cannot be restored.

I made the chart below to explain how systems fail and why they cannot be restored. Systems have numerous sources of potential fragility:

1. Systems can be tightly bound to other fragile systems, setting up the potential for a domino-like cascading collapse that starts with one system failure that then brings down every connected, interdependent system.

2. Systems can be hollowed out by self-interested insiders who mistakenly believe the system can survive endless looting.

3. Systems can be weakened by perverse incentives that provide strong incentives to under-invest in core functions and divert revenues to profiteering and extraction (stock buybacks, bonuses to managers, etc.)

4. Systems can appear robust to casual observers because insiders cloak the decay of function, accountability and transparency.

5. The decline of functionality/results can be hidden by bureaucratic obscurity (accounting statements in which all the important information is buried in footnotes starting on page 217, etc.) and by complexity thickets that reduce accountability to near-zero: no one is responsible for the decay of function, accountability and transparency.

6. Process replaces results as the Prime Directive of the system. Devoting resources to following processes rather than to getting results generates an illusion of functionality even as the ability to evolve and adapt is lost.

7. Buffers that enabled effective responses to crisis are stripped to the bone as redundancy and resilience are discounted as "hurting profits" or "needless expenses."

8. Insiders and the public/customers wrongly assume money can solve all of these systemic frailties. But money cannot buy trust, competence, institutional depth, productive incentives or anything else that is essential to robust, anti-fragile systems.

Americans are unprepared for the collapse of core systems. The secular faith holds that corporate ownership of core systems, centralized state control and the relentless pursuit of infinite greed will magically manifest the best of all possible worlds because self-enrichment by any means available is what perfects systems.

Unfortunately for America, this faith has it exactly backwards: self-enrichment by any means available is what hollows out and fatally weakens systems. The relentless pursuit of infinite greed ("investing" in stock buybacks, legalized looting, etc.) has destroyed the moral foundation of society and the economy: there is no civic virtue or public good left. These empty phrases cannot hide that America is a moral cesspool so corrupted by greed and self-interest that the nation can no longer even recognize its own moral dissolution.

The second graphic I prepared a decade ago depicts the lifecycle of bureaucracy which can be either private-sector or public: the initial purpose of the organization that inspired the innovators and initial managers is slowly replaced by self-interest, and those who were willing to sacrifice to serve this purpose quit in disgust or are marginalized as "threats" to self-serving insiders.

The competent leave or are forced out, leaving those of supreme incompetence in power, managers who've been selected for loyalty to the Prime Directive, protecting insider looting from outside interference via a mastery of public relations ("managing the narrative") and obfuscation.

The core function of the organization becomes masking dysfunction, ossification, sclerosis and the looting of insiders. The loss of function, accountability and transparency are hidden from prying eyes, and whistleblowers--the most dangerous threats to self-serving insiders--are hunted down and destroyed.

It is not coincidence that America's "growth sectors" are corruption and public relations ("managing the narrative") because the best way to cloak corruption and systemic failure is to manage the narrative by suppressing dissent and eradicating whistleblowers.

Unbeknownst to most Americans, many core systems are already in the first stages of collapse. No corporate sector does a better job of masking dysfunction and profiteering than healthcare, and so the collapse of healthcare systems will surprise everyone who swallowed the sector's glossy PR.

The entire financial system is hopelessly compromised, corrupt, self-serving and obsessed with maximizing personal gains by any means available. One of the dishes at the banquet of consequences that will surprise a great many revelers is the systemic failure of the Federal Reserve's one-size-fits-all "solution" to every spot of bother: print another trillion dollars and give it to rapacious financiers and corporations.

I suggest dining lightly on the feast of consequences because the courses of systemic failure will continue being served the entire year. So save some appetite for the really big systemic collapses that are only now being slid into the oven."

- https://www.oftwominds.com/

"Improve Your Focus! Music for Concentration, Studying and Work"

Greenred Productions,

"Improve Your Focus! Music for Concentration, Studying and Work"

"Study Music & Concentration Music is brainwave background music to help you to study, focus, and concentrate on learning process and work more effectively. Alpha Waves help your mind to get to the state of focus, which is perfect for studying or preparing for exam or test you have at school or university. It also maintains your alertness while studying. Beta waves will help to concentrate for tasks, enhance intelligence."

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Memory Music: https://youtu.be/Tv4Jg66KbJ0 

Overcome Depression: https://youtu.be/1UUL0B0xKj8 

Super Intelligence: https://youtu.be/nMdoCK7r_j4

"How It Really Is"

 

"Too Much Rain Will Kill Ya "

"Too Much Rain Will Kill Ya" 

by Bruce Krasting

"My first week on Wall Street was in August of 1973. I was newbie to NYC. My office was on the south side of 100 Wall, on the second floor, looking out over Front Street. There was a tremendous thunderstorm one afternoon. I looked out the window as the street filled with water. The flood poured into a street gutter and overwhelmed it. With the gutter flooded, the rats were drowning. They came out of every hole. In twenty minutes, 500 came out of the one gutter I was watching. The rain stopped and the flooding abated. The rats on the street followed the receding water back into their holes. A memorable first impression of life in the financial district."

- http://www.zerohedge.com/

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 1/4/21"

"Economic Market Snapshot AM 1/4/21"

"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will

do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone."

- John Maynard Keynes

○

"Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...

Only the consequences are real - to you!

○

Gregory Mannarino, AM 1/4/21:

“Must Know Now Market Updates; Dollar Slammed Again”

- https://traderschoice.net/

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"The more I see of the monied classes, 

the better I understand the guillotine."

- George Bernard Shaw

○

○

MarketWatch Market Summary, Live Updates

- https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary

CNN Market Data:

- https://money.cnn.com/data/markets/

CNN Fear And Greed Index:

- https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

○

A comprehensive, essential daily read.

- http://www.shadowstats.com/

Daily Updates, Dec 31st to Jan 4th

○

Daily Job Cuts

- https://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

○

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

○

- https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/

○

- https://wallstreetonparade.com/

1/4/21: "Wall Street’s Casino Banks, Taking Deposits from Savers, in 1929 and Today" "Following the stock market crash in 1929, more than 9,000 banks in the United States failed over the next four years. In just the one year of 1933, more than 4,000 banks closed their doors permanently as a result of insolvency."

○

- https://www.whatreallyhappened.com/

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- https://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

○
Commentary, highly recommended:

- https://www.theburningplatform.com/

○

And now, the End Game...

"Covid-19 Pandemic Updates 1/4/21"

"Covid-19 Pandemic Updates 1/4/21"

○

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

○

by David Leonhardt, AM 1/4/21

"This simple chart shows why the new variants of the coronavirus - first detected in Britain and South Africa - are so worrisome:

By The New York Times | Sources: Local and 

national governments and health organizations, World Bank

The chart compares the spread of the virus in each of those two countries with the spread in a group of nearby countries. As you can see, cases have surged in Britain and South Africa since the variants first surfaced - while holding fairly steady in the rest of western Europe and southern Africa.

The new variants may not be the only reason. Britain and South Africa differ from their neighbors in other ways, as well. But there is no obvious explanation for the contrast besides the virus’s mutations. This suggests the rest of the world may now be at risk of a new Covid-19 surge.

The variants already seem to have spread around much of the world. More than 30 other countries, including the U.S., have diagnosed cases with the variant first detected in Britain, which is known as B.1.1.7. Scientists say that it could soon become the dominant form of the virus. The B.1.1.7 variant appears to be between 10 percent and 60 percent more transmissible than the original version. One possible reason: It may increase the amount of the virus that infected people carry in their noses and throats, which in turn would raise the likelihood that they infect others through breathing, talking, sneezing, coughing and so on.

As I’ve explained before, the biggest factor that will determine how many more people die from the virus isn’t likely to be the precise effectiveness of the vaccines or even the speed of their rollout. The biggest factor is instead likely to be how much we reduce the spread of the virus over the next few months, through a combination of mask wearing, social distancing and expanded testing. Those efforts can cut caseloads - and, by extension, deaths - more rapidly than a mass vaccination campaign can.

But the U.S. was struggling to hold down new infections even before the variants appeared, and they will probably make the job more difficult. “I dismissed the news initially because viruses mutate all the time and there have been too many baseless ‘mutant-ninja virus’ doomsaying headlines this year,” Zeynep Tufekci wrote in The Atlantic last week. “However, as data on the new variant roll in, there is cause for real concern.”

My colleague Apoorva Mandavilli, in a piece explaining what scientists do and don’t know about the variants, writes that they may end up “exacerbating an unrelenting rise in deaths and overwhelming the already strained health care system.”

In recent days, the number of Americans hospitalized with Covid-19 symptoms has risen to more than 123,000, up from about 95,000 a month ago and 50,000 two months ago. The virus is still winning."

 Coronavirus Map: Tracking the Global Outbreak 

 Jan. 4, 2021 12:12 AM ET: 

The coronavirus pandemic has sickened more than 85,098,500 

people, according to official counts, including 20,666,242 Americans.

At least 1,843,400 have died.

  Jan. 4, 2021 12:12 AM AT: 

Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

- www.nytimes.com

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"The COVID Tracking Project"
Every day, our volunteers compile the latest numbers on tests, cases, 
hospitalizations, and patient outcomes from every US state and territory.
- https://covidtracking.com/
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- https://www.cdc.gov/library/covid19/112420_covidupdate.html

"Military Recruiters Worry America's Youth Are Too Fat Or Dumb To Enter Service"

"Military Recruiters Worry America's Youth

 Are Too Fat Or Dumb To Enter Service"

by Tyler Durden

"A recent report in military news site Task & Purpose highlights that military recruitment could soon slump nationwide in large part because America's youth are too fat or in other cases too dumb to fight.

Going back a number of years this has been an increasing concern expressed by a growing chorus of both active and retired military leaders. It was also weeks ago expressed in a Dec.17 letter to Acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller signed by almost 800 retired admirals and generals. They warn that over 70% of young Americans between 17 and 24 can't make it into military ranks because they are "too poorly educated, too overweight, or have a history of crime or substance abuse."

The bipartisan group that penned the letter is urging the Pentagon to create a strategy to address the growing crisis. "Without coordinated action, these trends pose a significant threat to the future of the all-volunteer force," the letter said.

Identifying some of the same trends, Navy Recruiting Command chief Rear Adm. Dennis Velez recently separately told Military.com that making making sure "our children are healthier" is urgently needed to divert a national crisis.

Certain fitness and weight standards are required to even attempt to enter the armed services, with requirements determined by the particular branch - with the Marine Corps maintaining the strictest entry requirements. Further the head of the Marine Corps recruiting was also quoted as follows: "Maj. Gen. Jason Bohm, the head of Marine Corps Recruiting Service, said far fewer than 30% of young people are eligible to serve in that branch. "If you break it down further into those skill sets, intelligence level, and the physical ability level, those that we're looking toward bringing into the Marine Corps... quickly decreases to about 7%," he said. "That's enormously challenging."

For the foreseeable future the trend is likely to continue, given how the pandemic related lockdowns and social distancing orders for much of the past year have often resulted in canceled youth sports leagues, a reduction in social outdoor activities, and people generally being shut in their homes for longer periods."

- https://www.zerohedge.com/