"I fear the day technology will surpass human interaction.
The world will have a generation of idiots."
- Albert Einstein
Several generations actually...
"You can never underestimate the stupidity of the general public”
- Scott Adams
So, we rise from the rubble...
Saturday, May 25, 2024
Dan, I Allegedly, "Real Trouble for Real Estate"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 5/25/24
"Real Trouble for Real Estate"
Today’s video is a deep dive into the real estate crisis, specifically how HOAs are out of control! If you’ve been feeling like your HOA is overstepping, you’re not alone. From insane fines to outrageous foreclosures, these unregulated homeowners associations are wreaking havoc on people's lives.
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"Ireland, Spain And Norway Recognize Palestinian State"
"Ireland, Spain And Norway Recognize Palestinian State"
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Owen Jones, 5/25/24
"Has Israel's Impunity Been Destroyed By ICJ And ICC?
Prof. Heidi Matthews Gives Masterclass"
"As the International Court of Justice orders Israel to cease it's Rafah assault - and the International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor requests arrests warrants for Israel's leaders - is time really up for Israel's genocidal campaign? Joined by the brilliant legal scholar Prof. Heidi Matthews who explains all."
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"Alert! Military And Government Officials Secretly Preparing, Eites Make Nuclear Exit Plans!"
Full screen recommended.
Canadian Prepper, 5/24/24
"Alert! Military And Government Officials Secretly Preparing,
Eites Make Nuclear Exit Plans!"
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Friday, May 24, 2024
Judge Napolitano, "INTEL Round Table: Johnson & McGovern - Weekly Wrap Up"
Judge Napolitano - Judging Freedom, 5/24/24
"INTEL Round Table:
Johnson & McGovern - Weekly Wrap Up"
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"McDonald's Is Hazardous To Your Health; New Cars Piling Up At Dealers, No Buyers"
Jeremiah Babe, 5/24/24
"McDonald's Is Hazardous To Your Health;
New Cars Piling Up At Dealers, No Buyers"
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"A Look to the Heavens, With Chet Raymo"
“Like Rubies Ringed With Gold”
by Chet Raymo
“Here’s a Hubble Space Telescope composite photograph of two colliding galaxies in the constellation Corvus.
Each of the three books of Dante’s “Divine Comedy” ends with the same words: “the stars.” The Inferno concludes with distant stars glimpsed through the narrow exit of hell. “We emerged,” says the poet, “and saw the stars.” The poet’s journey through Purgatory ends on Earth’s highest mountain, with the heavens seemingly not so far away. He is “ready to ascend to the stars.” Finally, Dante looks down upon the stars from above, from the luminous realm of Paradise. He has experienced “the Love that moves the sun and the other stars.” The beauty of that final destination, the Empyrean Sphere that encloses the created universe in divine brilliance, taxes the poet’s powers of description:
“I saw light in the shape of a river
Flashing golden between two banks
Tinted in colors of marvelous spring.
Out of the stream came living sparks
Which settled on the flowers on every side
Like rubies ringed with gold…”
Nothing in Dante’s experience could have prepared him for the splendors of the heavens as revealed by the Hubble. The photograph of colliding galaxies in Corvus is a work of genius in the tradition of the “Divine Comedy” – imagination in service to humankind’s loftiest aspirations and longings.
In Dante’s time, astronomy was one of the seven liberal arts – with grammar, rhetoric, logic, arithmetic, geometry, and music – required of every student who aspired to a university degree. Of all the secular sciences, astronomy was deemed most likely to lead one to the contemplation of things divine. Yesterday’s Hubble pic made the hair stand up on the back of my neck, which is about as close to the divine as I ever get. Dante’s “Divine Comedy” is based on the medieval astronomical conception of the world – a system of concentric spheres centered on the Earth and bounded just up there by the Empyrean.
In the Hubble photograph of colliding galaxies we see something akin to Dante’s paradisal vision, but it is not a cosmos centered on the Earth. Here are other Suns and other Earths being born, in prodigious numbers, massive stars destined to die soon as supernovas, and other less massive stars that will live long lives, perhaps evolving life or consciousness on their planets. We see in the Hubble photograph a universe of a fullness and dimension that makes Dante’s human-centered cosmos of concentric spheres seem like a dust mote in an immense cathedral.
Astronomy is no longer a required course of study in our universities, and it’s something of a shame. Who can look at the photograph of colliding galaxies and not be moved to rapture? An understanding of the size, age, and prodigality of the universe should be part of every liberal arts graduate’s intellectual furniture.”
- http://blog.sciencemusings.com/
Freely download “The Divine Comedy” by Dante Alighieri, here:
Dante Alighieri’s “Divine Comedy – Inferno”
Dante Alighieri’s “Divine Comedy – Purgatorio”
Dante Alighieri’s “Divine Comedy – Paradiso”
Gerald Celente, "Genocide Joe Stealing Our Dough And Keeping The War Going"
Strong language alert!
Gerald Celente, 5/24/24
"Genocide Joe Stealing Our Dough
And Keeping The War Going"
"The Trends Journal is a weekly magazine analyzing global current events forming future trends. Our mission is to present facts and truth over fear and propaganda to help subscribers prepare for what’s next in these increasingly turbulent times."
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"10 Items That Will Become Impossible To Find At Costco Stores"
Full screen recommended.
Epic Economist, 5/24/24
"10 Items That Will Become
Impossible To Find At Costco Stores"
Before you realize it, you’re hooked on this new product – maybe even changing up your daily routine around it – only to discover that on your next shopping trip, it’s nowhere to be found. Now, you have to try to find a substitute that won't be nearly as good, or even worse, buy it at big-box stores for regular retail prices.
That's what's happening to many consumers in 2024. Even though the warehouse club is known for cycling products in and out at astonishing rates, – always keeping unexpecting members on their toes, – this year, it seems that the company is discontinuing multiple items without any notice, giving superfans no chance to stock up on their new obsessions before it stops selling these items at its locations.
Last winter saw its fair share of product layoffs in the grocery department and, apparently, spring cleaning time has begun at Costco. So far, the chain has discontinued over 30 items across the aisles, including household essentials and pantry desserts.
Today, we compiled some of the products shoppers are now mourning at the wholesale store, and we are going to explain why there’s even more bad news coming for Costco fans. So stay tuned until the end of the video."
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The Poet: Paul Laurence Dunbar, “We Wear The Mask”
“We Wear The Mask”
“We wear the mask that grins and lies,
It hides our cheeks and shades our eyes,-
This debt we pay to human guile;
With torn and bleeding hearts we smile,
And mouth with myriad subtleties.
Why should the world be overwise,
In counting all our tears and sighs?
Nay, let them only see us, while
We wear the mask.
We smile, but, O great Christ, our cries
To thee from tortured souls arise.
We sing, but oh the clay is vile
Beneath our feet, and long the mile;
But let the world dream otherwise,
We wear the mask!”
- Paul Laurence Dunbar
"Mental Laziness Is More Common Than Ever: How to Overcome It"
"Mental Laziness Is More Common Than Ever:
How to Overcome It"
by Becky Storey
"We live in a modern society where information is available constantly. We’re able to instantly access what’s going on in faraway countries and we can immediately see how millions of other people feel about it. This is causing more and more of us to develop mental laziness. Instead of thinking for ourselves, we’re allowing others to tell us how to think. The more we do this, the worse our thinking abilities become. Like any muscle, if you don’t use it, it gets weaker.
What Is Mental Laziness? Mental laziness happens when we allow our thoughts to become automatic. Sometimes, this is perfectly fine. For example, once you’ve been a qualified driver for a while, your reactions and movements become automatic. You simply go about your journeys without thinking much of the situation or the decisions you make. This is preferable in situations where you have to react quickly because your brain is working on instinct. In situations that might require deeper thought or critical thinking, however, mental laziness isn’t such a good thing.
Mental laziness includes avoidance of deep thinking, usually because it’s simply too much effort. Mentally lazy people tend to take what they’re told at face value and don’t apply only of their own ideas or debates. This is a major cause of the spread of fake news. Instead of reviewing the information for themselves, mentally lazy people share the news without a second thought. Sometimes, people will go as far as to only read the headlines of news stories before sharing, because reading the article would require too much personal thought.
Instead of taking the time to consider the world around them, people who struggle with mental laziness typically make choices based on whims and gut reactions. They take on a “do it first, think about it later” approach. Mental laziness can manifest in a number of ways. Some people might become risk-takers and rule disobeyers because they don’t care to think about the consequences of their actions or the reasons behind the rules. Other mentally lazy people might just behave in unhelpful and inconvenient ways, such as cleaning up after themselves or watching where they’re going.
Contributing Factors to Mental Laziness:
Lack of Goals: A significant factor that contributes to mental laziness is a person’s lack of long and short term goals. Having something to aim for and a sense of ambition drives us to be more conscious. Ambitious people are constantly searching for purpose in what they do and finding connections between their current activities and their hopes for the future. Without these goals, you’ll develop mental laziness because nothing has much meaning to it.
Fear: With physical laziness, it is often caused by a fear of trying and failing. Saying that you can’t be bothered is an easy way to mask the anxiety caused by a fear of not succeeding. Mental laziness is similar. We avoid thinking about things in case we don’t actually understand the concept. We feel embarrassed when it’s revealed that we don’t understand something, and fear that others will think we’re stupid. Instead of challenging ourselves to think about something, even if it’s a tricky subject, we often wait for others to find the answer for us.
Poor Well-Being: When we’re tired, our brains don’t function as well and we may develop mental laziness. We’re zoned-out and unable to focus. This means we tend to run more on automatic thoughts than deep and critical thinking. Plenty of studies, including this one, carried out in Finland, prove that our ability to think is deeply impacted by our sleep schedule. Similar studies, like this one done in California, show that our diet also has an impact on mental laziness. Junk food affects our attention span, and malnourishment makes thinking straight difficult. We all know the struggle that is trying to concentrate at school or work just before lunch. Our bodies need energy and nourishment to process information and create deep thoughts.
Irresponsibility: Have you ever met someone who has been so privileged that they have no concept of thinking for themselves? When a person grows up having had everything done for them, they don’t develop their ability to think about their actions. They float through life leaving mess and trouble in their wake, for no evil reason, they’re just mentally lazy. If you’ve never had to take much responsibility for anything, you’re unlikely to ever be forced to think too much about your actions or what else is going on in the world.
How to Overcome Mental Laziness? Fortunately, mental laziness is not something you have to be stuck with forever. With a little conscious effort, you can take your brain off autopilot and become a critical thinker.
Meditation: Mediation is the best way to fight mental laziness. It forces you to be alone with your thoughts. Meditation also teaches us to sort through our minds for valuable information and ditch the nonsense. If you aren’t much of a thinker, use meditation to bring forward thoughts of importance to you. This could ideas of the future, feelings about world events, or just gratitude for family and friends. Meditation doesn’t always need to be done with an empty mind, especially if you struggle with connecting to your thoughts. While overthinkers will benefit from quiet meditation, “underthinkers” and those who are mentally lazy will benefit from thoughtful meditation.
Improve Your Wellbeing: Possibly the most straightforward (but not always easiest) place to start is with your sleep pattern and diet. Try to get into a healthy night-time routine that will provide you with those blissful 9 hours of sleep. Too little sleep makes thinking difficult, but too much could also encourage mental laziness too. Changing your diet can be challenging but will be noticeably beneficial to your brain. A generally healthy diet will be a significant improvement on one which consists mostly of junk foods as your body will have more nutrients and sustainable energy. Specific foods like fish, nuts and even dark chocolate will provide particular vitamins and minerals which are known to improve cognitive functioning.
Take One Task at A Time: Multi-tasking might seem like a great thing to be able to do, but when you fill your brain with several tasks at once, each one gets less attention. Our brains typically can’t handle multiple deep-thinking jobs at the same time, so we become mentally lazy and apply minimal thought to each one. If you’re looking to rid yourself of mental laziness, make sure you always separate your tasks. When you’re taking on a project, you can devote more thought to it this way. No more autopilot, only intentional actions.
Set Some Goals: If you’re looking to gather up some motivation in your life, you can’t go wrong with setting goals. If you’re mentally lazy, you probably just stroll through life without much thought for your next move or the motivation behind your actions. When you have goals, both long and short term, you’ll be much more likely to have deep, critical thoughts in order to guide you to those goals.
Stop Escaping: Some of us hate to be alone with our thoughts. We’ll do anything just to avoid having to hear our brain chatter, especially those of us who suffer from anxiety and negative thinking. This is a type of mental laziness because we’d rather distract ourselves with nonsense than let ourselves think. Instead of running away, let the thoughts in. The only way you’ll solve the underlying cause is by thinking yourself through them.
Mental laziness is an easy trap to fall into these days, but fortunately, it’s not impossible to get back out of. Believe in your ability to create intelligent thoughts. Question the things you see, trust yourself to form your own, valid opinions."
References:
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"Cognition Enhancer For Clearer and Faster Thinking -
Isochronic Tones"
“Headphones Recommended – Note: As this session stimulates each ear with different frequencies, you will need to use headphones to experience the full effect. Alternative background sounds available on Mp3 here: Orchestral, Hybrid, World Music, Rain, Brown Noise.
What does this track do? This session stimulates Beta, SMR and Alpha, alternating in 2 minute increments to help keep the user relaxed and engaged. Note: SMR (sensorimotor rhythm) relates to the frequency range between 12 – 15Hz. It’s associated with sensory processing and motor control. Stimulating this can result in relaxed focus and improved attention. This session is meant to speed up the brain while keeping the left hemisphere dominant (good for attention, concentration and reducing emotional response and hyperactivity). ADD and similar disorders are often characterized by “slow-wave” EEG patterns, particularly in the left frontal region. As such, this session stimulates the left brain hemisphere with Beta frequencies and the right with SMR.
Can it be used to help with studying and if so, when should you listen to it? Yes, it can be helpful to use while studying, and if you read through the many comments about this track, you’ll see that many people have successfully used it for studying. You can either listen to it while you are studying, to get your brain into a good mental state when you need it. Or if you are someone that gets a bit distracted by music while studying, listen to it just before you begin.
How Loud Should The Volume Be? There is varying advice and opinions on the impact of volume with brainwave entrainment, with some saying the louder it is the more impact it has. From my own experience, my advice is to play it at a volume level you feel comfortable with. The main thing to consider is that it should be loud enough to hear the repetitive isochronic tones, so you don’t want it so quiet you can hardly hear them. But you also don’t want it so loud that its uncomfortable for you. Somewhere in the middle is my recommendation.
Use this session in the morning or afternoon, to train your brain for better cognition, such as clearer and faster thinking. You can either sit somewhere quiet and comfortable with your eyes closed and give your brain a nice workout, or you can also listen to this while doing an activity that requires a boost in concentration, like studying.
How long should you listen for to get a good effect? It takes around 6 minutes for your brainwaves to fall in step with the tones and become entrained. It then takes time to be guided along the frequency range used in the track. Listening to about half way through is the minimum in my opinion, but 30 minutes is the optimum and preferred length to listen for.
IMPORTANT RECOMMENDATIONS:
• Drink some water – Make sure you are well hydrated before listening to brainwave entrainment.
WHY? Your brain is made up of around 75% water, so it needs plenty of water to function well. When you stimulate your brain in this way, you’re increasing electrical activity and blood flow in the brain and giving your brain a good workout, so it can be a good idea to drink before listening, so that your brain can fire on all cylinders.
• It is not recommended to listen to this while driving or operating machinery.
WHY? Brainwave entrainment involves a process of stimulating your brainwaves and changing your mental state. While this is safe to do and use in normal situations, it can sometimes zone you out during the track, as you focus in on the sound of the tones. This could result in you being distracted temporarily, which is not a good thing while you’re driving or operating machinery. Some people also experience tingling and other sensations from the stimulation. While that might feel quite nice sitting in a comfortable chair at home, it could cause you to be distracted while driving and result in an accident.
• It is not recommended to listen to this while under the influence of drugs or alcohol, or any mind altering substance.
WHY? When your brain is under the influence of drugs or alcohol it’s not operating to it’s full capacity, and you react differently to stimulation and situations, compared to when you are sober. So as a precaution and because I don’t know how you will react in that situation, I recommend you do not use it in that situation.
• Who should NOT listen to this audio? Those who should not listen to this video/audio include: Those who are prone to or have had seizures, epilepsy, pregnant or wear a pacemaker should NOT listen to this video/audio.
WHY? There is insufficient research data in this area, so as a precaution, if you are among the categories listed above, I would recommend you consult a doctor or medical professional before listening to this video/audio.”
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Dan, I Allegedly, "Shrinkflation Scandal Revealed! $6 Filet-O-Fish"
Full screen recommended.
Dan, I Allegedly, 5/24/24
"Shrinkflation Scandal Revealed! $6 Filet-O-Fish"
"You guys asked for it and you will get it. I went to McDonald’s to take a look at shrinkflation firsthand. The Filet-O-Fish, once a satisfying meal, has now shrunk to a laughable size, yet the price has skyrocketed to $6! Then we went on a field trip to a restaurant that is losing customers and shouldn’t. Why is Cracker Barrel failing?"
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"The Truth, Neutrinos, Taylor Swift, And Otto Von Bismarck"
all I'm offering is the truth, nothing more."
- Morpheous
"The Truth, Neutrinos, Taylor Swift,
And Otto Von Bismarck"
by John Wilder
“I know what you're thinking, 'cause right now I'm thinking the same thing. Actually,
I've been thinking it ever since I got here: Why, oh why, didn't I take the blue pill?”
– "The Matrix"
"I write a lot about the Truth, but I think the Friday before Memorial Day is a fine time to talk about the Truth in general. Why? Because I said so.
The first thing I want to point out is that a quest for Truth, does not mean everything is bright and happy and puppy tails. The Truth is, very often a grim thing. I have found things sometimes aren’t the happy web that I imagined. Like the Wedding Guest in the Rime of the Ancient Mariner I ended up being “A sadder and a wiser man” because of The Truth. I guess the Wedding Guest’s bright spot is at least Iron Maiden® wrote a song about him.
That is part of the issue of looking for the Truth – I thought I understood life, and then a curve ball hits. Some people call this sudden exposure to the Truth: The Red Pill, based on the red Reese’s Pieces that E.T.® ate with Indiana Jones™ in the movie Jaws.
Or something like that. Heck, I used to worry about the evidence that the Sun’s neutrino count was half of what would be expected, and that maybe its internal fusion had stopped. But that was just too scary, so now I worry about celebrity gossip.
The Red Pill is choosing to see reality as it is, not as we’d wish it to be. In this quest, I’ve seen things I didn’t want to see, and understood things often people are willfully ignorant of because the consequences of the Truth are...disturbing. That’s difficult, because then I have to go back through what I formerly believed to be True, and reassess – how does this new Truth change what I thought I knew? What else do I think to be True that is similarly wrong? What I trusted as the Truth, after taking the Red Pill, I had to reassess and review my whole worldview through different eyes.
One of my first Red Pills was when I was a sophomore in college. I realized then that most people simply didn’t care about me, didn’t care if I succeeded or failed, and that the majority of my presence in the world was like that of a finger in a cup of water – pull the finger out, and two seconds later you’d never know a finger had ever been in the water. Unless I hadn’t washed my hands after going to the bathroom.
And, it’s True. Most of the journey of most lives is shared with just a few very close people. I remember that one of my friends died not too long after high school – a car crash. I hadn’t seen him for four years afterwards, and was sad, but, you know, I shrugged and moved on.
That’s not the case for everyone – families are much tighter, obviously, but lots of marriages are transactional: it’s based not on a bond, but on a transaction, like nearly every Hollywood marriage. But it comes down to friendships, too. I once had a close friend at work. I left the job, and boom, the friendship status was closed. Our relationship had been a transaction, and it occurred in an artificial setting. Didn’t mean I wasn’t irritated, but, hey, like Mark Twain said, Red Pill is gonna Red Pill.
Searching for the Truth isn’t about avoiding ugliness, searching for the Truth is about being able to make actual choices, using free will free of illusions. It’s about making actual conscious moral decisions without pretending. This is better, even if the Truth is ugly. Why? Decisions made with the Truth in mind work out better. If I tried to use reason and logic with a toddler, we’d both end up frustrated and I’d end up with a black eye and a fractured clavicle. Again.
That’s a key problem with making decisions or basing reality on anything other than the Truth: “solutions” won’t solve any problems if they’re not based on reality except by accident. Those “solutions” may even make things worse. For instance, if the problem is youth crime, and New York City decides that to stop youth crime, for any crime short of murder, they’re going to ignore it and put the criminal back on the streets immediately, what will happen?
For illegal aliens, if the policy to stop those illegals is to fund them to get to the border, bus them from the border to relocation centers, feed, clothe, fund, and then fly for free to yet more free stuff: housing and food. How many illegals will that policy stop?
The True solution to a problem often requires a True understanding of the problem. In the examples above, the True problem isn’t the illegals or the young criminals, the True problem is the GloboLeftElite who want the illegal aliens and the youthful criminals to be doing exactly what they’re doing. Not using the Truth to make decisions when you have it is morally and ethically bankrupt, and the GloboLeftElite and their stooges have a lot to answer for.
The biggest ally I have in my search for the Truth is humility, which is probably one of the best inventions, ever. Although I’ve learned a lot, the best lesson I’ve ever learned is that I can be 100% dead wrong. Because of that history, I always, always try to ask myself, “what if I’m wrong?”
It’s a powerful question. If everybody is doing the same thing, and I do something different, what happens if I’m wrong? What’s the upside if I’m right? We live in a world of uncertainty, and finding Truth is not always clear. It’s True that the dollar will eventually go to zero, but it’s also True that I could go broke waiting for that to happen.
So, I try to seek whatever evidence I can to help me. I also like to use those close friends (and The Mrs.) as people to help point out when I’m delusional. They try, and sometimes they’re right, and sometimes I’m right. By writing these points down in the posts I’ve put out, I’ve also made it so it’s harder to delude myself that I knew better than I really did.
Just kidding.
The reward, though, is to live a life where you’re guided not by delusion, but by Truth. It may not always be the happiest outcome, but it is the real outcome. Or if that’s too scary, I’ll just concentrate on whatever Taylor Swift is doing instead. Stupid neutrinos."
"The Continual Rise in the Cost of Living… And Why the Fed has No Shame"
"The Continual Rise in the Cost of Living…
And Why the Fed has No Shame"
by David Stockman
"Jay Powell did it again assuring the 1% that he has their back. Markets recovered their poise over the last 24 hours, as investors were relieved after Fed Chair Powell stuck to his recent views on the economic outlook. In his remarks yesterday, he said that recent data didn’t "materially change the overall picture" and that on inflation "it is too soon to say whether the recent readings represent more than just a bump." In addition, he reiterated that if "the economy evolves broadly as we expect, most FOMC participants see it as likely to be appropriate to begin lowering the policy rate at some point this year." So that all helped to validate market pricing, which still expects 71 bps of rate cuts from the Fed by the December meeting.
Needless to say, the man has no shame. And that’s to say nothing of intellectual firepower. There is not even a smidgen of a case that rate cuts in the present context will help main street, and the Fed heads and their Wall Street megaphones don’t actually even try to make that argument.
Instead, they argue for rates cuts by default. If by some tortured version of the CPI (i.e. the "supercore" index, which eliminates 61% of the CPI items by weight) they can espy the in-coming inflation trend settling into a liberally defined vicinity of 2.00%, that’s purportedly good enough to end the money-printing pause that has been in place since March 2022. Thereafter, it’s back to business as usual, flooding the canyons of Wall Street with cheap credit and a new burst of financial asset inflation.
Never mind that in this particular inflation-cycle, the general price level is up by 28% since January 2017 and that tens of millions of households and businesses have been badly damaged, even as others harvested windfall gains. When it comes to inflation and all the other so-called macroeconomic metrics on their dashboards, past history–even the recent past—is dead to the Fed heads.
Instead, it’s all about the current and especially the prospective rate of change as embodied in the silly "dot-plots" they gurgle around in their brains and update four times per year And we do mean silly. After all, if the consensus of the 19 geniuses who participate in the dot-plot guessing game espies say a 2.27% gain in the supercore index over the next year, so what?!
The fact is, the US economy needs a lot more relief from its recent inflationary pounding than the Fed’s guesstimated rate of slowdown in the forward year rise of the price level. After all, here is the increase in the core cost of living items since January 2017.
Change in Core Cost-of-Living Components Since January 2017:
Food: +32%.
Shelter: +34%.
Energy: +35%.
Transportation Services: +36%.
In the case of savers, retirees, wage-earners in globally impacted industries where wages haven’t kept up with the CPI, isn’t the above enough punishment? Doesn’t it actually amount to state-directed expropriation of their living standards and modest accumulated wealth? In any event, what the hell is so almighty urgent about rate cuts when the economy is still growing apace and the cumulative inflation of the last seven years has not been relieved in the slightest?
Increase In Major Cost-of-Living Components of the CPI Since January 2017
The dog-eared claim that rate cuts will enhance the growth rate of output, jobs, investment and spending on main street just doesn’t wash. Artificially low interest rates overwhelmingly fuel borrowing for speculation and financial engineering (e.g. stock buybacks) on Wall Street, not borrowing for productive investment on main street or even for enhanced "consumption" by the household sector, which is now buried in debt up to the gills after decades of easy money.
In fact, the only way that easy money causes households to spend more than the growth rate of their incomes is if they steadily increase their debt-to-income or leverage ratio. That generates incremental borrowings, which in turn can supplement spending derived from current period income.
As to the supply-side growth canard, it cannot be gainsaid that the amount of monetary stimulus has been off the charts relative to all prior history. In fact, the Fed’s balance sheet at @ $7.5 trillion is still more than 8X its pre-crisis level in Q4 2007.
Yet when it comes to real growth of value-added production during the six year period from Q1 2018 to Q4 2023, the chart below tells you all you need to know. To wit, real value added output in the health care, education and social services sector grew at a 2.71% per annum rate, which was 3X the 0.90% real growth rate of the nondurable goods production sector.
Self-evidently, the former sector does not need easy money or ultra-low interest rates to grow. Demand in the health, education and social services sector is overwhelmingly financed by government fiscal transfers, including the massive subsidies implicit in the medical care deductions and preferences of the IRS code.
Indeed, the red line in the chart below represented the fastest growing sector of the US economy by far during that six year period, but we’d dare say none of those gains depended upon low interest rates. The sector’s munificent funding actually flows from statutory entitlements and long-standing tax code provisions, which generate essentially the same level of demand and sector output whether the Federal funds rate is 1% or 7%.
Real Value Added: Education, Health Care and Social
Assistance Sector Versus Durable Goods, 2018 to 2023
At the same time, it is highly unlikely that a return to low rates will do much for the moribund growth rates in the industrial economy, as represented here by real-value added in the nondurable goods industries. Long ago, much of US production of shoes, shirts, sheets, household supplies and the like was off-shored to lower cost venues abroad. And locking in the current inflated domestic costs levels plus another 2-3% per year going forward will not bring them back. In sum, the Fed’s fiddling with interest rates is largely irrelevant to the supply-side path of the two industries shown below, and countless more just like them.
Finally, it is tantamount to laughable to claim that the Fed needs to revert to the rate cutting modality in order to stabilize the financial markets and main street economy and to compensate for the purported inherent volatility of the free market. Oh, puleese!
Every one of the main street recessions and financial market crises of the past six decades has been caused by the state and the machinations of its central banking branch. The very idea that there is an implicit third mandate called "financial stability" (after inflation control and full employment) is risible. It puts you in mind of the young man who killed both parents and then threw himself upon the mercy of the court on the grounds that he was an orphan!
At the end of the day, sharply cutting rates any time this year or for some time to come thereafter would amount to a financial crime. After just a short stay of approximately eight months barely in positive territory (purple area) since July 2023, inflation-adjusted or real rates would be back below the zero bound, where they have destructively dwelled for much of the last several decades, as the chart makes crystal clear. Of course, that development would be heartily welcomed by Wall Street speculators and the Washington war-mongers and spenders alike. And that’s exactly the reason it should not be done."
Inflation-Adjusted Federal Funds Rate, 2001 to 2024
"Geography Is Destiny"
"Geography Is Destiny"
by Brian Maher
"If you seek understanding of a nation’s foreign policy - and its political orientation - please consult a map. That is because the map - nine times of 10 - will yield you your answer. The map makes a mockery of theory. See the map and the scales will then go falling from your eyes. The map clarifies.
Why did Germany pick two mighty fights last century? Why is neighboring Switzerland so docile? Why is Russia so given to paranoia? Why did liberty sink root in the fertile political soil of Great Britain and its New World castoffs? Again, the map supplies the answers. Let us first consider the aforesaid Germany…
Naked Upon the North European Plain: Germany inhabits the North European Plain. This plain is a defenseless and nearly infinite expanse stretching from the English Channel in the West clear through to Russia’s Ural Mountains in the East. The geography is a massively extended pancake. Its flatness affords Germany little natural defense. Thus Germany stands exposed, naked upon the North European Plain.
To her southwest lies formidable France. To her east snarls the menacing Russian bear. Hence she is squeezed between the French and Russian vise, squeezed between two rivals. A conundrum!
Germany’s 1871 unification - with its vast military and industrial potential - alarmed both France and Russia. Sandwiched between them both, this French and Russian alarm in turn alarmed Germany. What if they leagued together… and besieged her from two sides? It is no exaggeration to argue that The Great War and its 1939 sequel represented German efforts to solve the riddle - to escape the vise grip. Historians decry the Kaiser and the moustached Austrian corporal for initiating both conflagrations. They might first blame the German geography.
Geography and Liberty: What about neighboring Switzerland? Why does she lack the bloodlusting aggression of her Teutonic neighbor? Again, geography holds the answer. Switzerland is heavily alpine, and famously so. And mountains are murder on marauders. These Alps form very high walls, behind which the Swiss can shelter. Switzerland has been trespassed by foreign armies, it is true. Yet the geographical explanation for her listless nonaggression remains valid. Is it any wonder then that liberty flourished so beautifully in Switzerland?
Unlike exposed-on-two sides Germany… vulnerable upon the North European Plain… Switzerland’s alpine defenses largely relieve it of invasion fears. In that geography liberty can plant itself. A people situated therein enjoys the luxury of peaceful pursuits under liberty’s reign. Liberty is unlikely to plant itself in a land perpetually subject to invasion. This land’s residents cannot afford the luxury of liberty. They must be forever on watch. They must adopt a more collective orientation. Again, geography forms a heavy influence. Shall we consider the Russian example?
The Mongols, the French, the Germans, Oh My: Like Germany, Russia sits on the open North European Plain. This of course exposes her to western invasion. Messieurs Bonaparte and Hitler exploited fully this vulnerability - the former in 1812 - the latter in 1941.
And to the east? Russia’s nearly infinite steppes stretch clear through to Mongolia. For what is Mongolia best known? Genghis Khan and the Golden Horde of marauding horsemen who terrorized Eurasia. Crossing these grassy seas, Mongol invaders besieged and conquered Russia. Thus Russia stands vulnerable to invasion from both east and west alike. History has demonstrated this fact to high effect.
Is it any wonder then why Russia appears so paranoid of territorial transgression? Is it any wonder why Russia is so jealous of its influence over Ukraine - and why the prospect of Ukrainian absorption into a western military alliance freezes Russia’s blood? We hazard it is no wonder whatsoever. This paranoia springs from Russian history. And Russian history has been written largely by geography. Let us now take up a geographical consideration of the United States…
God Smiles Upon the United States: God filled two oceans - Atlantic to the right, Pacific to the left - to moat it off from marauders. Russia may have its “General Winter,” it is true. The abovesaid Bonaparte and Hitler can attest to his superior generalship. Yet Russia’s General Winter is nothing against Admirals Atlantic and Pacific of the United States Navy. They keep any invader at length.
Meantime, God emplaced two geopolitical blanks against American land borders, two punchless bantams. One squats to the north, Canada. One sits to the south, Mexico. Imagine a cat bordered north and south by mice. That is the American position - a cat bordered by two mice.
God furthermore blessed the United States with vast tracts of fertile, bountiful land… an extended capillary system of internal waterways… natural harbors from which to send things out… and to take things in. What other nation has enjoyed such natural, God-granted riches? None can approach it. “God has a special providence for fools, drunkards and the United States of America,” concluded Germany’s Otto von Bismarck.
All available evidence indicates it is true. And of these God-blessed categories, we conclude God has most blessed the United States of America. She has absorbed more divine favor than the most foolish fool or the drunkest drunkard.
God’s Sense of Humor: Has God given the United States a Baltimore… a Detroit… a Cleveland? Has He populated its capital with rogues, rascals, cadges, chiselers, grifters and swindlers, with fools and drunkards? Well, friends, maybe He has. We must conclude that He has a mischievous, even puckish sense of humor, this God. He delights in pulling noses. Yet the central fact remains: He has nonetheless showered America with such immense natural extravagance.
In quiet moments, often in the small hours of night, we often marvel…Why are we so fortunate as to reside in this Eden, this El Dorado, this Elysium? Countless others in the world’s various hells are infinitely more deserving. But to proceed…
Much like Switzerland, the American geography sprouts people free to focus on freedom. Of course these people are free to make jackasses of themselves. They often do. But let it go for now. America’s liberty-leaning she shares with her mother, Great Britain. And again, here geography offers us insight.
English Liberty Because of the English Channel: The English Channel has proven an excellent moat. When was England last invaded? 1066? It is no surprise then that Great Britain gave us the Magna Carta. Its geography affords a freedom against invasion - and like Switzerland, an orientation toward political liberality.
Geography likewise blesses the Commonwealth it hatched. New Zealand is an island nation and Australia is a continent. Neither faces foreign harassment. And both like to talk about liberty (whether they mean it or not. Their COVID-era raids upon liberty were among the most extravagant on Earth). Would Great Britain or any of its offshoots soak themselves in liberty if their geographies were different? We hazard they would not. Imagine any of them sharing the German geography or the Russian geography. Their orientations would be more German or Russian than English, American, New Zealander or Australian.
We must conclude that a map will teach you far more about this world than a groaning bookcase of encyclopedias will teach you about this world. Is demographics destiny? Well then, geography is destiny. Close the book, we say - and open a map."
Bill Bonner, "New World Order"
Halford Mackinder’s World Island
"New World Order"
Driving the Chinese and the Russians into each other’s arms
might turn out to be the biggest strategic miscalculation of all time.
by Bill Bonner
Dublin, Ireland - "It’s coming... a new world order. Politics doesn’t interest us. But mega-politics does. Its deep currents - mostly unseen - carry history along with them. And they guide and drive the Primary Trends in markets, too.
And this week, something very important happened. We saw the future taking shape. Vladimir Putin went to Beijing. There, he surely received one of the warmest welcomes he has ever gotten. But this was more than just conviviality... it was the signal of a big shift in the power relationships - ‘les rapports de force’ - between the governments of planet earth.
Ray McGovern, a CIA analyst for 27 years, reports: "It amounts to a tectonic shift in the world balance of power. The Russia-China entente also sounds the death knell for attempts by U.S. foreign policy neophytes to drive a wedge between the two countries. The triangular relationship has become two-against-one, with serious implications, particularly for the war in Ukraine. If U.S. President Joe Biden’s foreign policy geniuses remain in denial, escalation is almost certain."
Since the end of WWII, US security experts and geopolitical strategists have taken comfort in what they thought was an eternal animosity between Russia and China. The two titans share a long border and a long history of mutual distrust. But now, something has changed. The two old adversaries have embraced. Now, “it’s two against one,” says McGovern.
Arnaud Bertrand: "Wow, China and Russia issued an extraordinary joint statement yesterday, with almost 8,000 words when translated into English, and in many ways more important than the famous "no limits" partnership statement in February 2022."
Bertrand identifies three important features in the joint Russian/Chinese announcement. First, they openly proclaim a New World Order in which the US is no longer the boss: “The status and strength of emerging major countries and regions in the ‘Global South’ are continuously increasing” which will lead to greater “multipolarity.”
The second point is that the statement clearly takes aim at the US, telling it to stop “interfering in the internal affairs of other countries”... and creating “small yards with high fences” among the world’s sovereign powers.
The third point must send chills of delight and foreboding, both up and down our warmongers’ spines. It calls for much broader, deeper cooperation militarily, as well as commercially: "Both sides] will further deepen military mutual trust and cooperation, expand the scale of joint training activities, regularly organize joint maritime and air patrols, strengthen coordination and cooperation within bilateral and multilateral frameworks, and continuously improve the ability and level of jointly responding to risks and challenges."
Is this just diplomatic blah, blah? It doesn’t sound like it. It sounds more like an alliance between the world’s largest country geographically - Russia - and the world’s most dynamic economy - China. Russia is experienced and capable militarily; it has shown itself able to resist the weapons and tactics of the advanced “West.” But the Russian economy is tiny. The US firepower lobby made full use of ‘bear baiting’ to get more money from Congress. But Russia lacks the commercial strength to pose much of a danger.
China was a convenient bugaboo, too. It has manufacturing and high-tech capacity up the wazoo. What it lacks is much experience in modern warfare. Since Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan in 1949, China has minded its own business, lately more eager to make money than to make war. And now, with the full cooperation of Russia, it will be able to shore up its defenses and bring its military up to world standards.
Alfred Thayer Mahan concocted a grand theory in which there were two types of geopolitical force - landpower versus seapower - described in his famous book, "The Influence of Seapower on History." The book became required reading, not only at the US Naval War College, but in Japan and Germany too. The Japanese built up their fleet in the 1920s and ‘30s expecting a ‘decisive battle’ with the US. In fact, they got their decisive battle - Midway - and they lost.
Napoleon Bonaparte seemed to anticipate Mahan by nearly a century. He believed he would beat the Duke of Wellington at Waterloo, because “the English don’t know how to fight on land.” He lost too.
But never before was there a landpower so great, potentially, as the China/Russia partnership. For various reasons - mostly venal, partly just stupid - US policymakers made enemies of both Russia and China. The firepower industry needed enemies to justify huge military budgets. Spurred by the neocons, the US rolled out sanctions, tariffs, massive support for the Ukraine, more military spending, threats and sophisticated new weapons.
In these pages, we’ve focused on how these policies add to US debt and make it impossible to forestall a debt crisis. But that may turn out to be the least of the problem. Driving the Chinese and the Russians into each other’s arms might turn out to be the biggest strategic miscalculation of all time.
Yes, the dreaded Huns, the Han, Tartars, Mongols, Cossacks - all the fierce warriors of the steppes and the Middle Kingdom - are coming together. Not since Genghis Khan has the Eurasian Heartland been so united. And so long, small fry - Vietnam, Grenada, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Iraq, Afghanistan. Now, the empire of ‘the West’ may have created a worthy opponent."
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