"Convergence of Quandaries"

"Convergence of Quandaries"

by Jim Kunstler

"And so, America has a new manufactured crisis, ElectionGate, as if all the other troubles piling up like tropical depressions marching across the September seas were not enough. Let me remind you what else is going on. The Wuhan pandemic is still on the scene, the economy is collapsing, a domestic race-war is escalating, the whole west coast is burning, and US oil production is crashing. Oh… and slow-moving tropical storm Sally is forecast to come ashore as a hurricane on the Gulf Coast today, dumping up to two feet of rain.

America needs a constitutional crisis like a hole in the head, and that’s exactly what’s being engineered for the holiday season by the clever folks in the Democratic Party’s Lawfare auxiliary. Here’s how it works: the complicit newspapers and cable news channels publish polls showing Joe Biden leading in several swing states, even if it’s not true. Facebook and Twitter amplify expectations of a Biden victory. This sets the stage for a furor when it turns out that he loses on election night. On cue, Antifa and BLM commence to riot all around the country. Meanwhile, a mighty harvest of mail-in votes pours into election districts utterly unequipped to validate them.

Lawfare cadres agitate in the contested states’ legislatures to send rogue elector slates to the electoral college. The dispute ends up in congress, which awaits a seating of newly-elected representatives on January 4, hopefully for Lawfare, mostly Democrats. Whoops…!  Turns out the Dems lost their majority there too. Fighting in the streets ramps up and overwhelms hamstrung police forces in Democratic-run cities. January 20 - Inauguration Day - rolls around and the Dems ask the military to drag Trump out of the White House “with great dispatch!” as Mr. Biden himself put it so nicely back in the summer. The US military breaks into two factions. Voilà: Civil War Two.

You didn’t read that here first, of course. It’s been all over the web for weeks, since the Democratic Party-sponsored Transition Integrity Project (cough cough) ran their summer “war game,” intending to demonstrate that any Trump election victory would be evidence of treason and require correction by any means necessary, including sedition, which they’d already tried a few times in an organized way since 2016 (and botched). The Democrats are crazy enough now to want this. They have driven themselves crazy for years with the death-wish of eradicating western civ (and themselves with it). There are many exegeses of this phenomenon, mostly derived from Marxist theories of revolution, but my own explanation departs from that.

The orgy of political hysteria, insane thinking, and violence is a psychotic reaction to the collapsing techno-industrial economy - a feature of it, actually. When all familiar social and economic arrangements are threatened, people go nuts. Interestingly, the craziness actually started in the colleges and universities where ideas (the products of thinking) are supposed to be the stock-in-trade. The more pressing the practical matters of daily life became, the less intellectuals wanted to face them. So, they desperately generated a force-field of crazy counter-ideas to repel the threat, a curriculum of wishful thinking, childish utopian nostrums, and exercises in boundary-smashing. As all this moved out of the campuses (the graduation function), it infected every other corner of American endeavor, institutions, business, news media, sports, Hollywood, etc. The country is now out of its mind… echoes of France, 1793… a rhyme, not a reprise.

The US economy began a slow and insidious collapse because its petroleum energy base became unaffordable. The reality of that was obscured by paradoxical appearances: the shale oil miracle goosed up US oil production from under five million barrels-a-day in 2007 to thirteen million barrels-a-day in 2019. Pretty awesome. Seemed like we were awash in oil. The problem was the companies producing shale oil couldn’t make money at it, and the loans that went into staging the shale oil “miracle” went bad… and then the companies couldn’t get new loans… and went bankrupt. So, the crash of US oil production is a self-reinforcing feedback loop that is sure to continue and will make things worse. Now, less than a year after reaching that majestic 13 million barrels-a-day, production has fallen to around 10 million a day - quite an impressive drop. Further obscuring the actual dynamic in play, gasoline prices at the pump are quite low - under $2.50-a-gallon where I live, compared with $4-plus a couple of years ago - and most citizens consider the price of gasoline their sole index of how things are going in the oil industry.

The Covid-19 pandemic has aggravated and accelerated the damage from that by shutting down much of small business across America since March. The businesses and people who owned them have suffered terribly. That and the public lockdowns have greatly depressed the demand for oil products, driving the price-per-barrel down and reducing the cash flow of the oil companies. That also aggravated worsening relations with our principal trading partner, China, the net effect of which threatens the supply chain for all sorts of critical parts and products needed to keep our complex systems running.

Whether Mr. Trump or anybody can respond intelligently to this long emergency is a matter of considerable moment. As far as election politics are concerned, Mr. Trump is only marginally better positioned because he is not in favor of destroying the existing institutions of the republic as his opponents are. There’s less reason to believe he’s capable of coping with the nuts-and-bolts of the economic collapse that awaits after the election dramaturgy plays out. For Mr. Trump, much depends on the illusory performance of the implausible financial markets. This is the season for market crashes, as it is the season for Atlantic cyclones, and those markets have been acting as toppy as a moon-shot lately.

Meanwhile, the BLM mayhem continues overnight, this time in stodgy little old Lancaster, PA, where a knife-wielding Hispanic man was shot by the cops. Crazy how unjustified that seems. The incident and the reaction to it (riot… fires) followed the assassination attempt of two LA County sheriff’s deputies in their car Saturday night by what appears to have been a black child or a dwarf. Afterward, BLM “protesters” showed up at the hospital where the deputies were undergoing surgery, shouting “I hope they die.” I can’t wait to hear Rachel Maddow and Lawrence O’Donnell try to explain that to their faithful fans on MSNBC."

- https://kunstler.com/

Must Watch! "Millions Will Be Homeless; Debt Slaves; California Depression; Prepare for Economic Tsunami"

Jeremiah Babe,

"Millions Will Be Homeless; Debt Slaves; 

California Depression; Prepare for Economic Tsunami"

"Massive Lines Form Outside Virginia Food Bank As Demand Hits One Million Meals Per Month"

"Massive Lines Form Outside Virginia Food Bank 

As Demand Hits One Million Meals Per Month"

by Tyler Durden

"The economic recovery has stalled, and in some cases, reversed. The $600 unemployment benefits that Americans received following the virus pandemic that crashed the economy in March-April expired on July 31, which means a fiscal cliff has been underway for 44 days (as of Sept. 14).

Millions of people are still out of work, their emergency savings wiped out, and insurmountable debts are increasing. As former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen warned in August, Congress' inability to pass another round of stimulus checks could weigh on the economic recovery. 

Readers may recall about a quarter of all personal income is derived from the government - so when a lapse in stimulus checks extends for well over one month - that could lead to new consumer stress. 

In Richmond, Virginia, about 125 miles south of Washington, D.C., a food bank has been shelling out more than one million meals per month as the metro area battles deep economic scarring sustained by the virus-induced recession.   Kim Hill, the Chesterfield Food Bank CEO, told ABC 8News, "a lot of Chesterfield residents are showing up to get food would be an understatement — they've been averaging over a million meals a month." 

"You roll down that window, and you see the tears in that person's eyes who never thought they would need the help of a food bank," Hill said. "It breaks your heart." She said the volume of people her food bank is feeding is more than triple the levels versus last year. With increased demand, Hill said more volunteers are needed to handle the greater volumes.  "The life at the food bank here, we think it has changed forever," Hill said. "Hunger should not exist in our country. We are one of the richest countries in the world, we need to be able to take care of our own people." 

She said the "Spanish-speaking population accounts for nearly half of all donations from their distribution sites." We recently noted low-income households had experienced the most financial hardships, which makes sense when Hill said many of the food donations are distributed to the "Spanish-speaking population." 

For some context here, food banks are slated to become the norm for the working poor. The pandemic has exposed the government's intent to bail out corporate America while providing very little assistance to everyone else. Whatever the assistance the government did provide was a taste of socialism for many. Wealth inequality has been supercharged in 2020, food banks will continue to see elevated demand as the recovery could take a couple of years to return to 2019 activity levels."

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

○

View in full screen mode.

My God... looking at it all, at us, how can you not just cry?

Musical Interlude: Simon & Garfunkel, "America"

Simon & Garfunkel, "America"

Full screen mode recommended.

"A Look to the Heavens"

"What's happening to this spiral galaxy? Just a few hundred million years ago, NGC 2936, the upper of the two large galaxies shown, was likely a normal spiral galaxy -- spinning, creating stars -- and minding its own business. But then it got too close to the massive elliptical galaxy NGC 2937 below and took a dive. Dubbed the Porpoise Galaxy for its iconic shape, NGC 2936 is not only being deflected but also being distorted by the close gravitational interaction.

Click image for larger size.

A burst of young blue stars forms the nose of the porpoise toward the right of the upper galaxy, while the center of the spiral appears as an eye. Alternatively, the galaxy pair, together known as Arp 142, look to some like a penguin protecting an egg. Either way, intricate dark dust lanes and bright blue star streams trail the troubled galaxy to the lower right. The featured re-processed image showing Arp 142 in unprecedented detail was taken by the Hubble Space Telescope last year. Arp 142 lies about 300 million light years away toward the constellation, coincidently, of the Water Snake (Hydra). In a billion years or so the two galaxies will likely merge into one larger galaxy."

- https://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap200510.html

The Poet: Dylan Thomas, “Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night”

“Do Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night”

“Do not go gentle into that good night,

Old age should burn and rave at close of day;

Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Though wise men at their end know dark is right,

Because their words had forked no lightning they

Do not go gentle into that good night.

Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright

Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,

Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight,

And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,

Do not go gentle into that good night.

Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight

Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,

Rage, rage against the dying of the light.

And you, my father, there on the sad height,

Curse, bless me now with your fierce tears, I pray.

Do not go gentle into that good night.

Rage, rage against the dying of the light.”

- Dylan Thomas

"We Are A People..."

“In this world we make good as evil and evil as good. We are a people in danger of succumbing to our excesses. When you try to live in holiness, when you try to stop sinning, you become braver. You become more courageous, you become a man of your word, a true knight. You become a man of a conviction that you are not willing to sell out. Set yourself apart from this corrupt generation. Freedom exists not to do what you like, but to do what you ought.”

- Jim Caviezel

"Millennials Are Coming For Boomers Money: Banks See Generational Conflict Breaking Out This Decade"

"Millennials Are Coming For Boomers Money:

 Banks See Generational Conflict Breaking Out This Decade"

by Epic Economist

"In a world of growing inequalities, the intergenerational gap is likely to trigger the reconstruction of the social-economic and political structures, reshaping the future and founding a whole new era. This is what Deutsche Bank's Jim Ried defended on his latest study "Age of Disorder". The piece caused shocked gasps across the financial world, revealing Millenials' and Gen Z's discontentment with the current configuration of the world economy endorsed by the Boomers, and highlighting their willingness to engage in a stronger political presence with the aim of minimizing wealth disparities, allowing them to turn the page and build a new age, "one that will be characterized initially by disorder," according to Ried. So in today's video, we will be taking a closer look at his observations to grasp what is coming in the next chapters of the collapse of society as we know.

As a banker, Ried focused on the market aspects that such extensive socio-economic and political implications will have at the coming "new age", more specifically on how current record-high global valuations are threatened, outlining eight major global themes that will boost the transition to this new phase, such as the deterioration of US-China relations, the explosion of global debt levels, to the imminent runaway inflation, the worsening of wealth and income inequality, and, of course, the looming generational conflict between Millennials and Gen-Zers, and Boomers.

In his study, the author identifies five different economic cycles over the last 160 years: from 1860 to 1914 - the first era of globalization; 1914 to 1945 - the Great Wars and the Depression; 1945 to 1971 - Bretton Woods and the return to a gold-based monetary system; 1971 to 1980 - the start of fiat money and the high-inflation era of the 1970s; 1980 to 2020 - the second era of globalization; and from 2020 on - The Age of Disorder, which will be the moment we, as a society, will face a sharp shift in the global financial world and social organization. The expert asserts that economic cycles come and go, "but sitting above them are the wider structural super-cycles that shape everything from economies to asset prices, politics, and our general way of life."

In that sense, when considering that inequality is a multifaceted area, one of the sub-areas that could emerge out of it, causing a critical disorder in the system is the intergenerational divide that has been expanding recently, which is likely to develop and receive even more attention in the immediate future. At the moment, the generational divergencies are at extreme levels, because the study points that, over the last decade, those who’ve graduated into the labor market have already experienced two massive shocks: the Global Financial Crisis and, currently, the global virus outbreak, both of which are considered to be the two worst economic collapse since the 1930s Great Depression. Meaning that young people have been left behind economically compared to the past generation, on issues that come from homeownership to student debt levels. 

For now, what we know is that the prospects to the 2020 decade indicate that Gen Zers and Millennials are going to gradually take the electoral base from the hands of the older generation. An electoral victory in favor of the Millenials could mean all-round redistributive policies, starting with the feared redistribution of wealth of the rich amongst the less favored classes, higher corporate and property taxes, more preference to commodities rather than stocks, and more tolerance of inflation "insofar as it will erode the debt burden it is inheriting and put the pain on bondholders, which tend to have a bias towards the pensioner generation," according to Ried.

In this direction, with increasingly high disparities and a world scenery in crisis, while an economic collapse is still unfolding, the younger generations are likely to keep fueling this force of reaction to the oppressive policies that have been enacted over the course of the past decades. As they are elected into positions of power, they will disrupt society as we know it, rebuilding it and shifting the world's attention to topics that were once left aside, such as the consumption model and the level of carbon emissions. The more our leaders suppress the necessities of this group, the larger the reacting force becomes. The Age of Disorder is on the horizon and will transform reality in unprecedented ways. With all that said, don't expect this transition to happen smoothly. Much more turbulence will come with it. Are you ready? Please feel free to share your thoughts on the comment section down below and don't forget to hit the like and subscribe button if you haven't already."

- https://www.epiceconomist.com

Gregory Mannarino, PM 9/14/20:"FED: We Have 'Unlimited Capital' To Lend"

Gregory Mannarino,

PM 9/14/20:"FED: We Have 'Unlimited Capital' To Lend"

- https://traderschoice.net/

"Unlimited Capital" - Trillions! - For Wall St and the 1%,

But not for YOU, Good Citizen...and here's why:

Very Strong Language Alert!

"It's a Big Club, and you ain't in it. 

You and I are not in the Big Club."

The Daily "Near You?"

Napier, Hawke's Bay, New Zealand. Thanks for stopping by!

"Trapping Wild Pigs"

"Trapping Wild Pigs"

by Jeff Thomas

"Most of us would like to assume that we’re smarter than pigs, but are we? Let’s have a look. Pigs are pretty intelligent mammals, and forest-dwelling wild pigs are known to be especially wily. However, there’s a traditional method for trapping them.

First, find a small clearing in the forest and put some corn on the ground. After you leave, the pigs will find it. They’ll also return the next day to see if there’s more. Replace the corn every day. Once they’ve become dependent on the free food, erect a section of fence down one side of the clearing. When they get used to the fence, they’ll begin to eat the corn again. Then you erect another side of the fence. Continue until you have all four sides of the fence up, with a gate in the final side. Then, when the pigs enter the pen to feed, you close the gate. At first, the pigs will run around, trying to escape. But if you toss in more corn, they’ll eventually calm down and go back to eating.

You can then smile at the herd of pigs you’ve caught and say to yourself that this is why humans are smarter than pigs. But unfortunately, that’s not always so. In fact, the description above is the essence of trapping humans into collectivism.

Collectivism begins when a government starts offering free stuff to the population. At first, it’s something simple like free education or food stamps for the poor. But soon, political leaders talk increasingly of "entitlements" – a wonderful concept that by its very name suggests that this is something that’s owed to you, and if other politicians don’t support the idea, then they’re denying you your rights.

Once the idea of free stuff has become the norm and, more importantly, when the populace has come to depend upon it as a significant part of their "diet," more free stuff is offered. It matters little whether the new entitlements are welfare, healthcare, free college, or a guaranteed basic wage. What’s important is that the herd come to rely on the entitlements. Then, it’s time to erect the fence.

Naturally, in order to expand the volume of free stuff, greater taxation will be required. And of course, some rights will have to be sacrificed. And just like the pigs, all that’s really necessary to get humans to comply is to make the increase in fencing gradual. People focus more on the corn than the fence. Once they’re substantially dependent, it’s time to shut the gate.

What this looks like in collectivism is that new restrictions come into play that restrict freedoms. You may be told that you cannot expatriate without paying a large penalty. You may be told that your bank deposit may be confiscated in an emergency situation. You may even be told that the government has the right to deny you the freedom to congregate, or even to go to work, for whatever trumped-up reason.

And of course, that’s the point at which the pigs run around, hoping to escape the new restrictions. But more entitlements are offered, and in the end, the entitlements are accepted as being more valuable than the freedom of self-determination.

Even at this point, most people will remain compliant. But there’s a final stage: The corn ration is "temporarily" cut due to fiscal problems. Then it’s cut again… and again. The freedoms are gone for good and the entitlements are then slowly removed. This is how it’s possible to begin with a very prosperous country, such as Argentina, Venezuela or the US, and convert it into an impoverished collectivist state. It’s a gradual process and the pattern plays out the same way time and again. It succeeds because human nature remains the same. Collectivism eventually degrades into uniform poverty for 95% of the population, with a small elite who live like kings.

After World War II, the Western world was flying high. There was tremendous prosperity and opportunity for everyone. The system was not totally free market, but enough so that anyone who wished to work hard and take responsibility for himself had the opportunity to prosper. But very early – in the 1960s – The Great Society became the byword for government-provided largesse for all those who were in need – free stuff for those who were disadvantaged in one way or another.

Most Americans, who were then flush with prosperity, were only too happy to share with those who were less fortunate. Unfortunately, they got suckered into the idea that, rather than give voluntarily on an individual basis, they’d entrust their government to become the distributor of largesse, and to pay for it through taxation. Big mistake.

From that point on, all that was necessary was to keep redefining who was disadvantaged and to then provide more free stuff. Few people were aware that the first sections of fence were being erected. But today, it may be easier to understand that the fence has been completed and the gate is closing. It may still be possible to make a hasty exit, but we shall find very few people dashing for the gate. After all, to expatriate to another country would mean leaving all that free stuff – all that security.

At this point, the idea of foraging in the forest looks doubtful. Those who have forgotten how to rely on themselves will understandably fear making an exit. They’ll not only have to change their dependency habits; they’ll have to think for themselves in future.

But make no mistake about it – what we’re witnessing today in what was formerly the Free World is a transition into collectivism. It will be a combination of corporatism and socialism, with the remnants of capitalism. The overall will be collectivism.

The gate is closing, and as stated above, some members of the herd will cause a fuss as they watch the gate closing. There will be some confusion and civil unrest, but in the end, the great majority will settle down once again to their corn. Only a few will have both the insight and temerity necessary to make a dash for the gate as it’s now closing.

This was true in Argentina when the government was still generous with the largesse, and it was true in Venezuela when the entitlements were at their peak. It is now true of the US as the final transition into collectivism begins.

Rather than make the dash for the gate, the great majority will instead look down at their feed and say, "This is still the best country in the world," and continue eating the corn. Disturbing economic, political, and social trends are already in motion and now accelerating at breathtaking speed. The risks that lie ahead are too big and dangerous to ignore."

- internationalman.com
○

The Beatles, "Piggies"

"The Most Costly Of All Follies..."

“The most costly of all follies is to believe passionately in the palpably not true. It is the chief occupation of mankind. The truth, indeed, is something that mankind, for some mysterious reason, instinctively dislikes. Every man who tries to tell it is unpopular, and even when, by the sheer strength of his case, he prevails, he is put down as a scoundrel.”

- H.L. Mencken

"Nine Meals from Anarchy"

"Nine Meals from Anarchy"

by Jeff Thomas

"In 1906, Alfred Henry Lewis stated, “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy. If there were an interruption in the supply of food, fear would set in immediately. And, if the resumption of the food supply were uncertain, the fear would become pronounced." Since then, his observation has been echoed by people as disparate as Robert Heinlein and Leon Trotsky.

The key here is that, unlike all other commodities, food is the one essential that cannot be postponed. If there were a shortage of, say, shoes, we could make do for months or even years. A shortage of gasoline would be worse, but we could survive it, through mass transport or even walking, if necessary.

But food is different. If there were an interruption in the supply of food, fear would set in immediately. And, if the resumption of the food supply were uncertain, the fear would become pronounced. After only nine missed meals, it’s not unlikely that we’d panic and be prepared to commit a crime to acquire food. If we were to see our neighbor with a loaf of bread, and we owned a gun, we might well say, “I’m sorry, you’re a good neighbor and we’ve been friends for years, but my children haven’t eaten today – I have to have that bread – even if I have to shoot you.”

But surely you think, there’s no need to speculate on this concern. There’s nothing on the evening news to suggest that such a problem even might be on the horizon. So, let’s have a closer look at the actual food distribution industry, compare it to the present direction of the economy, and see whether there might be reason for concern.

The food industry typically operates on very small margins – often below 2%. Traditionally, wholesalers and retailers have relied on a two-week turnaround of supply and anywhere up to a 30-day payment plan. But an increasing tightening of the economic system for the last eight years has resulted in a turnaround time of just three days for both supply and payment for many in the industry. This a system that’s still fully operative, but with no further wiggle room, should it take a significant further hit.

If there were a month where significant inflation took place (say, 3%), all profits would be lost for the month for both suppliers and retailers, but goods could still be replaced and sold for a higher price next month. But, if there were three or more consecutive months of inflation, the industry would be unable to bridge the gap, even if better conditions were expected to develop in future months. A failure to pay in full for several months would mean smaller orders by those who could not pay. That would mean fewer goods on the shelves. The longer the inflationary trend continued, the more quickly prices would rise to hopefully offset the inflation. And ever-fewer items on the shelves.

From Germany in 1922, to Argentina in 2000, and to Venezuela in 2016, this has been the pattern whenever inflation has become systemic, rather than sporadic. Each month, some stores close, beginning with those that are the most poorly capitalized.

In good economic times, this would mean more business for those stores that were still solvent, but in an inflationary situation, they would be in no position to take on more unprofitable business. The result is that the volume of food on offer at retailers would decrease at a pace with the severity of the inflation.

However, the demand for food would not decrease by a single loaf of bread. Store closings would be felt most immediately in inner cities, when one closing would send customers to the next neighborhood seeking food. The real danger would come when that store also closes and both neighborhoods descended on a third store in yet another neighborhood. That’s when one loaf of bread for every three potential purchasers would become worth killing over. Virtually no one would long tolerate seeing his children go without food because others had “invaded” his local supermarket.

In addition to retailers, the entire industry would be impacted and, as retailers disappeared, so would suppliers, and so on, up the food chain. This would not occur in an orderly fashion, or in one specific area. The problem would be a national one. Closures would be all over the map, seemingly at random, affecting all areas. Food riots would take place, first in the inner cities then spread to other communities. Buyers, fearful of shortages, would clean out the shelves.

Importantly, it’s the very unpredictability of food delivery that increases fear, creating panic and violence. And, again, none of the above is speculation; it’s a historical pattern – a reaction based upon human nature whenever systemic inflation occurs.

Then … unfortunately … the cavalry arrives. At that point, it would be very likely that the central government would step in and issue controls to the food industry that served political needs rather than business needs, greatly exacerbating the problem. Suppliers would be ordered to deliver to those neighbourhoods where the riots are the worst, even if those retailers are unable to pay. This would increase the number of closings of suppliers.

Along the way, truckers would begin to refuse to enter troubled neighborhoods, and the military might well be brought in to force deliveries to take place.

So, what would it take for the above to occur? Well, historically, it has always begun with excessive debt. We know that the debt level is now the highest it has ever been in world history. In addition, the stock and bond markets are in bubbles of historic proportions. They will most certainly pop, but will that happen in a year? Six months? Next week?

With a crash in the markets, deflation always follows as people try to unload assets to cover for their losses. The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) has stated that it will unquestionably print as much money as it takes to counter deflation. Unfortunately, inflation has a far greater effect on the price of commodities than assets. Therefore, the prices of commodities will rise dramatically, further squeezing the purchasing power of the consumer, thereby decreasing the likelihood that he will buy assets, even if they’re bargain priced. Therefore, asset holders will drop their prices repeatedly as they become more desperate. The Fed then prints more to counter the deeper deflation and we enter a period when deflation and inflation are increasing concurrently.

Historically, when this point has been reached, no government has ever done the right thing. They have, instead, done the very opposite – keep printing. A by-product of this conundrum is reflected in the photo above. Food still exists, but retailers shut down because they cannot pay for goods. Suppliers shut down because they’re not receiving payments from retailers. Producers cut production because sales are plummeting.

In every country that has passed through such a period, the government has eventually gotten out of the way and the free market has prevailed, re-energizing the industry and creating a return to normal. The question is not whether civilization will come to an end. (It will not.) The question is the liveability of a society that is experiencing a food crisis, as even the best of people are likely to panic and become a potential threat to anyone who is known to store a case of soup in his cellar.

Fear of starvation is fundamentally different from other fears of shortages. Even good people panic. In such times, it’s advantageous to be living in a rural setting, as far from the centre of panic as possible. It’s also advantageous to store food in advance that will last for several months, if necessary. However, even these measures are no guarantee, as, today, modern highways and efficient cars make it easy for anyone to travel quickly to where the goods are. The ideal is to be prepared to sit out the crisis in a country that will be less likely to be impacted by dramatic inflation – where the likelihood of a food crisis is low and basic safety is more assured."

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

"If They Will Loot Homes During These Wildfires, What Will They Do To You And Your Family When They Have No More Food?"

"If They Will Loot Homes During These Wildfires, What Will They
 Do To You And Your Family When They Have No More Food?"

by Michael Snyder

"When disaster strikes, the first instinct that some people have is to go out and loot homes that have been evacuated. I wish that this wasn’t the case, but it seems to happen every time that we see a huge natural disaster  You have to be quite sick to want to take advantage of people that have left their homes during a great tragedy, but we have seen it happen over and over the last several years. Twisted individuals that have had their consciences completely seared think that undefended homes are an easy target, and a lot of times they get away with it. Fortunately, authorities were able to catch two degenerates that were just looting evacuated homes in Oregon, but only after they led the police on a high speed chase:

"Two men have been charged by Oregon authorities with looting properties that were evacuated by owners fleeing the deadly wildfires that have so far forced half-a-million people from their homes, killed at least 31 people in three states, and left dozens more missing. Anthony Travis Bodda, 21, and Alexander Justin Jones, 36, were arrested on Thursday after they allegedly led law enforcement officials on a high-speed chase in fire-ravaged Santiam Canyon, Oregon, authorities said."

After their vehicle was disabled, the two looters took off on foot, but officers were quickly able to hunt them down: "The two men then got out of the van and made a run for it, according to sheriff’s deputies. One of the men was immediately arrested on the golf course while the other was seen going into a goat shed near the area. A K9 unit managed to locate the other suspect, who was also taken into custody."

Of course this is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to looting in this country. Earlier this year, literally thousands of young people went on an unprecedented looting spree all over the U.S. during the civil unrest that erupted in the aftermath of the death of George Floyd. Authorities are still making arrests as they continue to identify more of the suspects that were involved in looting stores, and hopefully as many looters will be brought to justice as possible.

But the looting will never stop. In fact, it will only get worse as our society continues to decay. And if desperate individuals will stoop to such lows now, what will they be willing to do to you and your family once things get really, really bad and all of their food is gone?

Today, we have more reason to literally be frightened of the behavior of our fellow Americans than we ever have before. By now, I am sure that you have already heard of the shocking ambush that we just witnessed in the Los Angeles area. When protesters heard where the police officers that had been shot were taken, they decided to block the entrance to the hospital: "Protesters have blocked the entrance to the hospital where the two Los Angeles sheriff’s deputies ambushed in a shooting Saturday are fighting for their lives, chanting: ‘We hope they ******* die.’ The officers, one the 31-year-old mother of a six-year-old boy, were shot at the Metro Blue Line station at Willowbrook Avenue and Oak Street in Compton by a male suspect who then fled the scene."

I don’t know if I have words that are strong enough to describe how detestable this was. Hospitals should be completely off limits for protests, and by blocking the entrance they were keeping people that needed emergency care from getting in.

There is no reasoning with people like that. In the past, many Americans have attempted to avoid a lot of the craziness that goes on by living in low crime areas, but at this point social decay is spreading like a cancer all over the nation. Just a few days ago, we learned that the feds have successfully shut down a “meth superhighway” that involved hundreds and hundreds of people in major cities such as “Atlanta, Dallas, El Paso, Houston, Los Angeles, New Orleans, Phoenix, San Diego, and St. Louis”: "U.S. Attorney William Barr and Drug Enforcement Administration Acting Administrator Timothy Shea announced Thursday, at a press conference in Phoenix, a large meth bust across the U.S., seizing thousands of pounds of methamphetamine, tens of millions of dollars, and hundreds of firearms. 

The operation was a six-month-long effort to bring down a ‘meth superhighway’ that was controlled by Mexican cartels and stretched across the U.S. The operation included 750 investigations across ‘meth hubs’ in Atlanta, Dallas, El Paso, Houston, Los Angeles, New Orleans, Phoenix, San Diego, and St. Louis, resulting in 1,840 arrests, the seizure of 28,560 pounds of methamphetamine, 284 firearms and $43.3 million in drug profits."

Some try to get away from all the crime by living in the middle of nowhere, but unfortunately the truth is that meth and other illegal drugs have made it to almost every small community in America at this point.

I don’t want to end this article on a bad note, and so let me share an example that demonstrates that there are still good people out there too. A little more than a week ago, over 200 campers were trapped by wildfires near Shaver Lake in California, and National Guard helicopters were sent in to rescue them: "More than 200 campers were trapped near a boat dock on Shaver Lake in California’s Fresno County over the Labor Day weekend, encircled by flames and a blinding wall of wildfire smoke.

Chief Warrant Officer 5 Joseph Rosamond, piloting a California Army National Guard CH-47 Chinook, had already made the decision to try to put his helicopter down close by the desperate campers on Sept. 5. Emergency personnel on the ground told Rosamond that the smoke made it too risky to conduct a close landing, but Rosamond knew that if he didn’t take a risk that those people would be in severe danger. The fires were closing in and time was running out, and so he made a conscious decision to be a hero.

“I was listening to the radio calls when the Chinook approached restricted airspace” near the lake, said Army Maj. Gen. David S. Baldwin, adjutant general of the California National Guard.“Chief Rosamond told them, ‘Just tell us where the people are. We’re going to go get them,’” Baldwin said in a video conference call Monday with the aircrews and defense reporters.

There wasn’t enough room on the helicopters to take all of the campers out in one trip, and so the helicopters actually had to go back to the lake two more times to get everyone. In the end, they didn’t finish the mission until 1:30 in the morning. 12 of the campers ended up in the hospital, but ultimately all 214 of them were saved."

Why can’t we have more heroes like Joseph Rosamond? Sadly, the decisions that our society has made over the past several decades are really catching up with us, and at this point the criminals, looters and sickos greatly outnumber heroes such as Joseph Rosamond. Everywhere around us social decay is rapidly getting worse, and millions of hearts are growing very, very cold."

- https://www.investmentwatchblog.com

"A Shot in the Arm"

"A Shot in the Arm"

By Bill Bonner

SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – "Bloomberg reported yesterday: "The University of Oxford and AstraZeneca Plc have restarted a U.K. trial of an experimental COVID-19 vaccine after it was halted over concerns about a participant who fell ill. The U.K. Medicines Health Regulatory Authority recommended that the study resume after an independent review of the safety data triggered a pause on Sept. 6, Oxford said in a statement. It declined to disclose details about the volunteer’s illness.

While temporary halts are common in vaccine trials, the interruption to the closely watched Astra-Oxford study had raised concerns about the viability of one of the fastest-moving experimental shots seeking protection from the pandemic. The race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine has compressed what is normally a decade-long process into a matter of months, with data from final-stage trials expected as soon as next month."

Help us! Save us! Oh, SCIENCE! Wherefore art thou?

Desperate Measures: Poor Castor and Pollux. The two elephants from the Paris zoo were slaughtered in 1871. Help didn’t arrive on schedule. Desperate Parisians – after four months of a lockdown – ate them. Fancy restaurants developed consommé of donkey head and kangaroo stew. The common people, though, had to make do with dog cutlets and rat sausage. The Parisians were locked down by the German army – or, to be more precise, the armies of Prussia, Saxony, Württemberg, Baden, and Bavaria; Germany did not yet exist – besieging Paris.

Here in Argentina, we’ve been locked down for six months, surrounded by the COVID-19 virus. We arrived in March and planned to leave in April. Then, the borders shut. We postponed our departure to June… then July. And now, we’re aiming for November. Fortunately, we have hundreds of cattle, sheep, and goats; there has been no need to slaughter household pets.

Cut Off: But last week, the noose got tighter. We’re no longer getting supplies from Salta City. The strategy here was the same as in the U.S. – keep the virus at bay by closing up shop, putting on masks, staying home, putting the economy on pause, and hoping a “vaccine” is discovered soon so we can all go back to normal.

This has proven to be a popular strategy, but not a very effective one. A virus can wait. Closing the doors leaves a vulnerable population, virgin to the virus, locked up inside… and ready to be ravished. You can’t stay locked up forever. And as the doors open, in comes COVID… like the drooling Huns marching into Paris.

After opening up… gradually… hesitantly… and then all of a sudden last week, a rash of cases were reported in the regional capital city, Salta. People went back into panic mode. Roads were closed again. In the city, you could go out… but only every other day. And here in our remote bolthole in the Calchaquí Valley, no visitors from the city are permitted.

Deadly Visitor: Alas, the farms here depend on the city for fuel, tractor parts, seeds, chemicals… veterinarians – everything. Throughout the last six months, we were able to keep a crew working on our new barns… clearing fields… and putting in irrigation. But last week, the work came to a halt. “We need cement… and wire,” explained the foreman. “And we’re not getting any deliveries from Salta.”

On Friday, a surveyor somehow slipped through the siege and showed up at the house. He was sent to prepare a map of the irrigation system. The locals – who know from six months of non-stop TV coverage that the virus is a ruthless killer – went into a panic. “He’s got to leave,” said one of the local women. “Well, he’s working out in the fields… by himself. He won’t cause any trouble,” we replied. “Well, don’t invite him to lunch.” “But we have to give him something to eat.” “Maybe he could sit at a table by himself… outside.”

In the end, we compromised. He sat at a separate table, but within conversation range. “Oh… I know everyone is so scared of getting the virus, they don’t want me to come near them,” the leper explained. “But I’ve already had the coronavirus. It was nothing. Just a cold.”

Same Result: Colds come and go. And sometimes, they kill people. Vulnerable individuals can protect themselves – by staying away from other people. But for most people, life goes on.

The death toll in Sweden, which let life go on more or less as normal, is now at 578 per million. And the U.S., with all of its lockdowns, lockups, and hysteria? About the same – now at 599 per million.

The death toll here in Argentina, whose lockdown was among the strictest in the world, is only half that level – 251 per million. But now… having held the gates so tightly shut for so long… as soon as it opens them a crack… the virus comes to call.

Based on the data from the last seven days, the U.S. average daily death rate from COVID-19 is around 750. In Argentina (with only one-seventh the population), 213 people die from the virus every day. And in Sweden, which let the virus do its work already? Only one person per day dies from COVID-19…

So far, the best bet for a person wishing to avoid the virus was to move to Thailand, Vietnam, or Burundi. Almost no one has died from the virus in these countries. Or in Papua New Guinea. Or Tanzania. Have these countries followed “science” with their state-of-the-art health systems? We doubt it. Two of the most dangerous places – in terms of dying from COVID-19 – are Peru and Belgium. The two have very different public health services. And yet, the results are about the same.

American presidential candidate Joe Biden says he will shut down the whole country if that’s what the “scientists” tell him to do. But the UK, France, the U.S., and the Netherlands must have the best scientists in the world. And yet, their COVID-19 death rates are higher than those of Russia, Iraq, Egypt, Nicaragua, and Bangladesh.

All we know, after six months of viral attack, is that science is almost irrelevant. The virus does what it wants. And if the feds had done nothing at all, the results might be about the same.

Relief Column: But many people believe that if you lock down… and stay locked down long enough, like Paris during the Siege of 1870, the relief column will arrive. Yes, we are awaiting SCIENCE! to come to the rescue. Like an avenging angel, or the French Army south of the Loire, it is expected to slay the terrible COVID-19 and save us. The subject is on every pair of lips. There are sightings reported in the press. “Pfizer is getting close.” “AstraZeneca has renewed its trials.”

The president periodically informs the believers that a vaccine should be here by summer… No, by election day… No, by early 2021. But how likely is that? A vaccine is not impossible. But there’s never been a successful vaccine developed for a coronavirus. And those under development seem a long way from producing proven, reliable results. Besides, even if they were proven to be safe and effective… how long would it take to give a shot in the arm to everyone who wanted it? Having misled the public into believing that we are all at risk, how could the feds restrict the new vaccine to only those who really need it?

High Cost: Meanwhile, the cost of the siege is getting higher and higher. Rations are getting short. The natives are getting restless. Government tries to hand out fake bread – like its money, made from wood pulp – but there’s no nourishment in it. And most likely, like the Parisians in 1870, we’ll be eating the animals in the zoo before we get an effective vaccine."

- www.rogueeconomics.com

"Who Wants to Live Forever?"

"Who Wants to Live Forever?"

by Mark Manson

"Each week, I send you three potentially life-changing ideas to help you be a slightly less awful human being. This week, we’re talking about topics that are a matter of life and death. No seriously, we’re talking about life and death this week: 1) the scientific progress in "treating" aging, 2) what a vastly longer lifespan would mean for culture and society, and 3) why do things die in the first place? Let’s get into it.

1. Can aging be reversed? - One of the more quietly controversial and interesting areas of scientific progress today is around the idea that biological aging can be treated as a disease and potentially be reversed. For years, researchers have been pioneering methods to limit cellular deterioration, stave off chronic diseases, and help older individuals stay healthy and independent as life expectancies rise.

Last week, a new study found that a cocktail of drugs not only slowed biological aging (measured by markers on the individual’s genome), it reversed it by approximately 2.5 years. To my knowledge, this is the first time an aging reversal has been shown in human subjects. This is a stunning result that even the researchers did not expect. (Note: it was a small study and had no control group, so don’t wet your panties just yet. As always, more studies need to be done.)

As with most bleeding-edge technologies, the idea that we can defeat aging, like most controversial ideas, has inspired reactions from experts that range from utopian to apocalyptic.

I was first exposed to the idea that aging could potentially be conquered by science in Ray Kurzweil’s book "The Singularity is Near." In it, Kurzweil's’ views are beyond utopian. They're like the religious rapture. In the book, Kurzweil makes the argument that not only will we cure death, but it will likely happen in most of our lifetimes.

Kurzweil points out that over human history, not only has life expectancy been increasing, but the rate at which it increases has been increasing as well. So, maybe centuries ago, life expectancy increased at a rate of 0.01 years per year. Then, it increased to 0.1 per year. Then 0.2 per year. Then 0.3 per year. He argues that eventually, life expectancy will hit a tipping point where it increases by at least one year per year, meaning that for every year that goes by, humans are expected to live at least one year longer. Ergo, we all become immortal. The end.

Maybe Kurzweil hasn’t spent much time investing in financial markets, otherwise, he’d be aware of the ubiquitous warning that accompanies every exciting chart: "Warning: Past performance is no guarantee of future results."

Indeed, there seems to be a "low-hanging fruit" effect on human longevity. It turns out that giving most of the world running water, sewage treatment, and, you know, food, vastly increases lifespan. So that "exponential curve" of increasing life expectancy that forever increases into the future is more likely an "S-curve" where life expectancy jumps massively as countries industrialize and modernize and then begin to level off at around 75-80 years old.

But regardless of the murky science and controversial implications, the lure of immortality is too strong for many to ignore. Companies have emerged that offer to cryogenically freeze your body when you die, promising to keep you frozen until the technology to "cure death" emerges in the future.

No, I’m not making this stuff up. Apparently, some notable people such as Larry King and Peter Thiel have signed up for it. But don’t get too excited. Freezing your body indefinitely after death starts at around $200,000 USD. Better start saving today!

2. Who wants to live forever? - In my book, "Everything is F***ed: A Book About Hope", I argued that one of the dangers of consumer culture is that we often equate "giving people what they want" with progress. Given that we so often want things that are terrible for ourselves (not to mention others), I point out that this is a pretty flimsy standard for measuring the social good.  

To me, curing aging (and maybe even death) is the ultimate question of, "Okay, we definitely want it… but should we?"

It’s hard to imagine the social and psychological repercussions of a population where the average life expectancy is, say, 250 years old. Would we overpopulate the planet? When would the retirement age be? Would our healthcare systems collapse? Would bridge and bingo become Olympic sports?

I joke, but I do think there are some serious philosophical questions here. Our ability to value things is driven by scarcity. We often care about things in our lives because we have an abiding sense that we will never experience them again. If we live forever, all experience becomes abundant, therefore much of it loses its meaning. Everything becomes more superficial—there’s no sense of legacy, no sense of, "I lived for that."

Or what about family? Will it become standard for everyone to have half a dozen marriages and a dozen kids? Will people have brothers and sisters 70 years younger or older than themselves? Will we appreciate our parents more or less knowing that we’re stuck with them for another two centuries and will end up sharing them with dozens of other people?

The perceived costs of things like traffic accidents, disease, and war would become much larger. Far fewer people would want to risk getting shot or dying in a car accident if they know they’re giving up hundreds of years of life. People would oddly become much more risk-averse. Pandemics would be waaaay scarier. The power of compound interest would become far more valuable, creating much more of a culture around saving and learning rather than spending and doing. Expertise would reach a point where people spend 30 or 40 years getting educated before starting their careers. Forty really would be the new twenty!

3. The evolutionary value of death - You might read all this and throw your hands up in the air and shout, "What are they doing? This isn’t natural!" But you’d be wrong.

Although they are rare, there are "immortal" species on the planet (in this case, "immortal" means that they do not biologically age.) The jellyfish Turritopsis dohrnii doesn’t die. Neither does the bristlecone pine tree. Many species of lobster technically don’t age and could theoretically live forever, the problem is that they outgrow their shells which then decay and fall apart, leaving them vulnerable to predators (talk about tragic).

Lifespans vary widely across the natural world. Some sharks and tortoises live for half a millennia. There are species of apes that only live to be about 15 years old. There are several species of flies that live for 24 hours or less.

It turns out that death is not inevitable. In fact, death exists for a specific evolutionary purpose. Ideally, by mixing and matching genetics, a species becomes more robustly adapted to its environment. The quicker individual creatures die, the faster they must procreate new generations, and the faster the rate of genetic mutation and adaptation within the species.

Therefore, each species has a "sweet spot" for lifespan based on the necessary evolutionary adaptation to its environment. If a species needs to adapt quickly and often, it dies quickly and often. If it needs to adapt slowly (or never), then it dies slowly (or never).

That "sweet spot" for humans seems to be every 2-3 generations, or every 80-100 years. The telomeres on our chromosomes appear to "run out" soon after that, effectively putting a limit on how long we can live naturally. This sweet spot probably exists because it’s short enough to stay ahead of the quickly mutating infectious diseases that threaten us, but long enough to have some grandparents around to help raise kids (for more on this idea, see Matt Ridley’s excellent book, "The Red Queen").  

A lot has been said about the scientific potential to alter our own species - genetic engineering, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, etc. But perhaps nothing would be so fundamental as altering our ability to age and die. Our psychology, our biology, and our societies seem to be largely based on it. Changing it could change everything. The question is, will we be around to see it? Until next week,"

- https://markmanson.net/

"When We Consider..."

"When we consider that each of us has only one life to live, isn't it rather tragic to find men and women, with brains capable of comprehending the stars and the planets, talking about the weather; men and women, with hands capable of creating works of art, using those hands only for routine tasks; men and women, capable of independent thought, using their minds as a bowling-alley for popular ideas; men and women, capable of greatness, wallowing in mediocrity; men and women, capable of self-expression, slowly dying a mental death while they babble the confused monotone of the mob?"

- Neil Gaiman

"How It Really Is"

"Market Fantasy Updates 9/14/20"

"Market Fantasy Updates 9/14/20"
Down the rabbit hole of psychopathic greed and insanity...
Only the consequences are real - to you!

○

"The more I see of the monied classes, 

the better I understand the guillotine."

- George Bernard Shaw

○

Updated live.

- https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary

○

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

SEP 14, 2020 7:11 AM: "Amazon Hires 100,000 Workers Ahead Of Holiday Season Amid Pandemic-Inspired E-Commerce Boom"

○

- https://wallstreetonparade.com/

○

Daily Update (September 13th to 14th)

- http://www.shadowstats.com/
○

Gregory Mannarino, 

AM 9/14/20: 

“Important Updates: Markets, the FED, Crude, More”

- https://traderschoice.net/

"Covid-19 Pandemic Updates 9/14/20"

 

SEP 14, 2020

By David Leonhardt

"A Midwestern surge: Coronavirus cases have soared in the Midwest even as cases are largely falling across the South, the Northeast and the West, as these Times charts show. The Midwestern surge is partly the result of young adults getting sick on college campuses. Cases have also been linked to a motorcycle rally in Sturgis, S.D., last month and to a jail in Wichita, Kan.

In other virus news:

• Restaurants, hospitals and workplaces have started using contact-free thermometers and scanners to take visitors’ temperatures. But experts say those measures are unlikely to detect asymptomatic carriers.

• Israel is heading back into a nationwide lockdown for at least three weeks starting on Friday, just before the Jewish New Year.

• Outside Las Vegas last night, Trump held an indoor campaign rally for the first time since late June. Health officials blamed that June event, in Tulsa, Okla., for an increase in local virus cases."

SEP 14, 2020 2:27 AM ET:

 Coronavirus Map: Tracking the Global Outbreak 
The coronavirus pandemic has sickened more than 29,000,200 
people, according to official counts, including 6,538,053 Americans.

      SEP 14, 2020 2:27 AM ET: 
Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count

◆

Sept. 14, 2020 at 11:45 a.m. ET: "WHO Says Record Number of New Cases — 307,930 — Counted Worldwide on Sunday"

◆

- https://www.zerohedge.com/

SEP 14, 2020 4:15 AM: "New Research Shows Google Searches For COVID-19 Stomach Symptoms May Predict Outbreaks"

◆

Updated 9/14/20, 2:26 AM ET

Click image for larger size.

- https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html